Wienerberger AG (WIE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. I hope you are all well. A warm welcome to the Wienerberger earnings call on the results for the first 3 quarters of 2022. Our Board representatives today are our CEO, Heimo Scheuch; and our CFO, Gerhard Hanke. They will lead you through the presentation and will discuss our strong performance in the first 3 quarters of this year. After the presentation, as always, we are ready to take your questions. I will now hand over to Mr. Scheuch for the presentation.

Thank you, Daniel, and a warm welcome to all of you. I hope we didn't wake you up this morning. We're a little earlier with our calls, and not usual, but we thought we'd do it before lunch. And thank you for listening. We will walk you with Gerhard through our set of results and what's currently happening in our market. But let's start with something which I view personally is very important. Wienerberger is on the good road of transformation. We have started this transformation a couple of years ago. Some of you have obviously realized it, some of you have appreciated it. But I just want to restress again that this transformation is currently taking place and the current circumstances help us in order to pursue this transformation. The transformation that leads us from a production-oriented company that focuses on new build, essentially with our clay products, to a company that has a much broader focus on renovation and infrastructure, especially, by the way, on water management. And I think this is a key element for the future for you to look at as our analysts, and well appreciate how you analyze our company and our business, but this is one aspect that we will certainly develop further in the future. And the combination between this exposure to new build, the water management in the house, around the house and in the infrastructure for water is a key element for growth, especially when you look renovation in the next 10 to 20 years because this is a key element both in North America and Europe. So this focus on innovation and system solution continues. We drive this strongly, and this helps obviously tremendously in such difficult instable and volatile market environment. Secondly, and this is also important to note, that Wienerberger is undergoing a transition when it comes to sustainable energy resources. We have started it. We'll elaborate a little bit with our sort of first project in Continental Europe and in the U.K. But this is on good track, and I'm very positive that over the next decade Wienerberger will move away tremendously or nearly everything on fossil fuels to sustainable energy resources. And again, if you look then to the ongoing business, Wienerberger shows a very, very strong organic track record. We have, again, this year, outperformed our markets, we've outperformed a lot of our competitors because we focus on innovation. And above all, if you look at the solutions of Wienerberger, and this is important for all the 3 end markets: renovation, infrastructure, water management and new build, they last for more than 100 years. So the life span is very long, very efficient, and we contribute here during this life span positively to all aspects of sustainability, not only the decarbonization, but also biodiversity and the circular economy. So I think these are very important aspect to mention before, and obviously, you're right, we will go then into the financials. But this is the strategic vision of the company that will be with us for the next 5 to 6 years in order to grow this company strongly and outperform its markets. Again, when you look at the first 9 months of this year, and Gerhard will elaborate much more in detail, very strong performance from operational excellence, our self-help program where we invest in the business to make it better, highly performing, EUR 48 million coming out of this for the whole year. So a very strong contribution. Also, I'm very proud to report that all of our acquisitions in Europe, in Ireland and U.K. and especially North America were contributing successfully. They are ahead of plan when it comes to integration and to cost savings. And we have certainly amazingly done well in the current market environment with these acquisitions and to integrate them so fast. So again, I think a very good performance here. And when we look at this -- the first 9 months, we have seen a strong performance. And this gives us the strength and also the conviction to raise our guidance for the whole year from the last time EUR 900 million to EUR 950 million to EUR 970 million, and we will certainly elaborate on this a little more. If we look at the numbers, as such, more than EUR 1 billion more turnover compared to last year, coming in at about EUR 3.8 billion, so a strong increase here. And this -- and above all, I think it's important to mention this comes in on the back of markets that in the new build segment cannot be qualified as booming. So if we talk in the language of a pilot, we didn't have the tailwinds that some of us probably thought we will find at the beginning of this year. No, we had, due to the Ukrainian crisis, due to the increasing interest rates, due to certain pressures that we see in North America and Europe markets, and especially in the new build, that came down from very good levels after COVID and are decreasing. So on a group level, we have a decrease in new build end markets of 10% to 12% for this year. So again, here, a strong step forward as far as revenues are concerned. EBITDA was EUR 835 million, a plus of 64% compared to last year. So it shows how well we manage our cost base, not only because we invest in the business, but we buy forward a lot of our materials, we focus on purchasing and, above all, also on pricing. I think this move away from a commodity producer, and you have heard it from me over the years a couple of times, to this system and solution-oriented company helps. Margins are trading upward, as they should. We keep it at these levels because I think here we have a good product portfolio. And with the innovation rate that we had, we can defend such margins. That's why actually the EBITDA went up to 20 -- nearly 22% in the first 9 months. So a strong upgrade also in the margins. Very satisfactory also if you consider the free cash flow was nearly 50% up to last year, about EUR 350 million. The ROCE -- again, also, as I noted that some of you have been having remarks about our ROCE in the past. But you see that we have said we focus on the business, we focus on the investments and we bring this ROCE up. And we are now at about 20% of ROCE. And again, earnings per share also very important, up to about EUR 4.4 a share. So good performance here on the key financial indicators. Let me spend a little bit time on the cost inflation. We have seen the cost inflation in the first 9 months of about 16% for Wienerberger. So this is for Wienerberger only, not the markets, Wienerberger only. And we were able to outperform, obviously, when you talk about pricing, our cost inflation successfully. We have put not only simple price increases in the market. We have obviously put a lot more of our systems in there and also solution-driven and have done it with a very respectful way to our clients. And therefore, we see also there, for this reason, a growing business in the market because people appreciate our way of sustainably managing our pricing. And ladies and gentlemen, I think we are living in a world where ESG matters a lot. And it matters also when you talk about your clients. And here, obviously, the sustainable management of pricing is very important. We are not guys who short term maximize profit. It's about a long-term vision and keeping margins and, obviously, pricing at a sound and very healthy level. On the -- talking about ESG, on the targets that we have set ourselves, decarbonization, 15% reduction in CO2 emissions until '23, we've achieved -- and we'll achieve about 12% reduction by end of '22. So again, here, you see our strong determination to do things. I hope you all realize that Wienerberger is doing things and not talking about things because others are talking about how much they will reduce till 2030 and 2035. We have set ourselves short-term targets, like financial targets, and we sort of transparently report on them like on decarbonization. Circular economy and biodiversity, also very important subjects, and we have seen here that we have made great improvements. Let me spend a minute on energy. Energy is obviously a major driver of our business because we need energy for the production of our pipes, where we have moved away from sort of the overall electricity supplies to green supplies, so we have green energy here. On this front, we have done all our necessary work here. And on the clay part, where we use still a lot of natural gas, we have our pilot projects in place and our more-than-pilot projects that you have seen in the U.K. We invest in the first roof tile factory -- clay roof tile factory and electrify the whole process, kiln and dryer. So here, Wienerberger has already technology in place. And we're the only ones, by the way, in the industry that have this technology in place. It's in-house development with international suppliers that are actually outside from the industry and come from other industries that helped us to develop this. So here, again, we have a great technology advantage to others in the sector to drive this change and transition in the future. But that's not enough for us. We are currently looking at self-sufficiency when it comes to electricity. And here, again, we will invest over the years intensively in producing more energies on our sites. Photovoltaic will be one, and wind turbines will be one. Keep in mind that, with this 240 or more than 200 sites, we have the possibility to get planning permissions, and permissions are obviously the overall most important thing, like in Belgium, for example, where we are currently building wind turbines on our sites and where we got rapidly the authorization to do so. So you will see us investing in this part of the business and, therefore, becoming more and more self-sufficient and independent from -- especially from producers, international ones. If we look at these technologies that we would put in place, we have actually, as I always said in the past, 3 priorities. The first one is reduce energy consumptions in our existing sites, and this is going well, and Gerhard will elaborate a little bit in this Fast Forward program. Here, we spend, obviously, money and put a lot of new technology in place in order to reduce on the ongoing sites our consumption. Secondly, our pilot projects that we have done in Austria, Belgium and other countries are running well, and we have now developed full-size sort of factories, and we will use this technology now in the U.K. to rebuild a clay roof tile factory. So this is the first of its kind in the whole sort of industry worldwide, and we're confident to put this in production by '20 -- end of '23 to '24. So here, again, a major step forward technology-wise. Let's spend a minute on M&A. M&A has been sort of good this year. We have taken over a leading provider for piping solutions in Croatia, Vargon, have integrated it already and making good progress here. This is exactly again in this sort of line strategic development to a complete supplier for the new residential housing and for renovation in this region, where -- because we supply here all the necessary piping in the house and around the house for water, for electricity and for other kinds of data that you need, for example, in the housing. We're in the multifamily housing. So again, here, a good fit with our existing business. We have increased our presence in the accessory part and in the prefabrication part by some small but important acquisitions that bring us forward on the system solutions side. And we will certainly continue to do so in the future, and we're currently looking at the multitude of potential acquisitions that are out there because, obviously, the crisis hits the family business, smaller business, also midsized business these days, and where we see tremendous opportunities for Wienerberger to grow its exposure in the renovation and in the water management market. We have also successfully exited the French piping business. It was for us not strategically important and a very low-margin business, and also the Russian brick business, which we have sold to management in a deal that we have recently closed. So we have exited 100% the Russian market. So again, if you look at '22, our focus will be to successfully offset the cost inflation. We managed this very well. Gerhard will elaborate that, the EUR 48 million coming from the Fast Forward. On the ESG front, we are on track, and we put a lot of effort in the energy transition. And as I said, we work hard on M&A and growth investments that we see out there. And I am confident that Wienerberger will continue its growth path also towards the end of this year and in the new year 2023. Gerhard?

Thank you, Heimo. Let me elaborate or let me first start with the development of the third quarter results. And as we have announced already, a strong set of numbers on the first half year. We are happy also to come up with a strong set of numbers also for quarter 3 despite slowing markets, as we heard already from Heimo in the beginning. Revenues, up 24% to almost EUR 1.3 billion. EBITDA, EUR 287 million, which is a 40% up. And I think also an exceptional good and strong EBITDA margin, which is above 22% in quarter 3. When we look to the top line development, top line increased, as I mentioned before, by 24%, around about half of it is coming from an organic growth and the other -- the second half is coming from the scope changes. The revenue is mainly driven by price. So that means that we were able in the third quarter to increase prices by more than 20%. We have seen a volume decline of 9% across the group with different impacts. I will explain later on when we speak about the business unit development. And this finally came up to a revenue development of plus 24%. This brings me to the development of the operating EBITDA. Operating EBITDA, up by around about EUR 70 million, a plus of 33%. The EBITDA is strongly driven mainly by 2 indicators. The one is that we had a strong price over cost performance in quarter 3, and we had also seen a decline in volume, in fact, as I mentioned before, of minus 9%. And basically, these 2 indicators are mainly driving basically the development of organic EBITDA. And out of the M&A, we see a contribution of around about EUR 30 million only in quarter 3, which brings us to the EBITDA, what I mentioned before, of EUR 270 million. Let me dive into more details into the business units. Maybe let's start with the Wienerberger Building Solutions. Revenues up with plus 13%, and the plus 13% in revenues, again, driven basically around about a minus 7% on volumes. So we lost around about minus 7% in the third quarter, whereby we have more or less stable volume development of, I think, a minus 2% on the renovation side and a higher minus or a stronger volume decline in the new build sector, meaning lower volumes in clay blocks and in facing bricks. And here, what we see also is that we have a stronger impact more on the Eastern European parts than in the Western European part, in Western Europe, we still see a more stable development in quarter 3. Looking to the piping segment, Wienerberger Piping Solutions. Revenues are up by plus 5%. Also here, we see that we have -- in the infrastructure segment, you know that the part of this is in the in-house segment, which is also more exposed to the new build end market. And here, we see a volume decline of minus 13% and a price increase of plus 24%. And this finally brought us up on a net position of plus 5%. There is also an FX decline in it due to the Turkish lira, which is basically also impacting the revenue development. And last but not least, the development of the revenues of North America, which goes up by more than 130%. And let's also look here how basically the brick business developed and how the piping business developed. On the brick side, basically, we're still developing in a very positive way, even if we see also in the U.S. that housing starts are slowing down. You know that the Fed is quite fast increasing interest rates. And consequently, also mortgage rates are going up. So we see that also the volume development or the demand also in the U.S. is slowing down. We had a volume decline in the third quarter by minus 6% around about, and we have seen a minus 14% in the infrastructure segment in the piping business in the U.S. And this was basically set up -- more than set up by a strong pricing. On the brick side, we had realized in the third quarter a plus 10% on pricing. And looking basically on the piping business, we even realized a pricing increase of almost 50% on a quarter 3 comparison year-on-year. So this led to a strong development in the revenues. And consequently, if we also quickly go through the EBITDA development, EBITDA in the Wienerberger Building Solutions up by plus 28%. As I said before, mainly driven by strong price over cost development by high run rates of our brick facilities. Here, as I mentioned before, we see simply a strong development in the renovation segment, meaning our roof activities are, of course, performing very well. We see a harder impact, a little bit harder impact more on the clay block side here, especially on the Eastern European part. And this -- and the contribution basically from out of our Fast Forward program are driving mainly this development of plus 28% in the Wienerberger Building Solutions business unit. Coming to the Wienerberger Piping Solutions. EBITDA development, minus 24%. Here, we have some one-offs, what we have to explain. The operational EBITDA, if I basically eliminate all one-offs, is around about EUR 40 million and is pretty much in line with prior year. I will explain. We have this year built a provision of close to EUR 5 million in quarter 3 for a legal dispute, and we had also an impact out of the devaluation of the Turkish lira, which is around about EUR 2 million to EUR 3 million. And last year, we had also, in the EUR 43 million, we had a release of a provision of around about EUR 2.5 million. And as I said before, if you consider these effects in 2022, but also if you consider them in 2021, you see that we basically speak about plus/minus and flat EBITDA development, which is around about EUR 40 million, and hoping by that I have also explained the minus EUR 10 million, what we have in our reported EBITDA. Development of North America has drove increase. We know that only America or North America basically contributed with EUR 30 million to the EBITDA development in North America. We also had in this scope expansion out of Meridian, we had also some smaller one-offs. But what we effectively see is, first, that synergies are coming in faster than expected, that we can pick up with the pricing also much faster than we have expected, especially in the southeastern part of the U.S. And also last but not least, the strong contribution of our U.S. piping business, which is also contributing strongly to this EUR 76 million EBITDA in the third quarter of this year. Let me continue with the financial development of the first 9 months, and looking first to the top line, to the revenue development. As I mentioned, we are going up by 33% in the first 9 months. We see in the first 9 months a volume development of minus 3% across the group. And this is basically the consequence out of the third quarter. We were -- if you remember, with first half year, we were around about plus/minus on prior year level, due to the 9%, what we realized in the third quarter, we see in the first 9 months the volume development of minus 3%, we have a price increase after the first 9 months of plus 21%. And I think what is important also that the mix, the positive shift, that we are moving from basically to more innovative products, towards solution selling. Basically, this is supporting not only the pricing, but also the product mix, which is also basically impacting our top line development. And this brings us finally to this EUR 3.8 billion revenues after the first 9 months. Looking to the operating EBITDA development, which is going up by 60%. There is a contribution after the first 9 months from our scope changes with almost EUR 80 million. But the main driver in the organic operating EBITDA is simply that we have in the different business units, beginning with the Wienerberger Building Solutions, very high contributions basically out of the profitability, meaning that we're exceptionally good doing in pricing, in pricing power and covering our cost inflation. The brick production facilities are running basically still on a 100% utilization rates. And out of that, basically, the profitability, especially in the Wienerberger Building Solutions, is contributing heavily here to this positive EBITDA development after the first month. And as I said, next to that, building -- to the Building Solutions North America and also basically the piping segment are also contributing exceptionally good in the first 9 months, which brings us finally to this EUR 820 million operating EBITDA development. I think we -- the next slide, and it's about the reconciliation of reported EBITDA to operating EBITDA, I think, it's self-explanatory. I think we don't have to use too much time here. I think that this strong financial performance, and this is, I think, is important, brings us to a very strong performance when it's about energy development, respectively, so also through value creation or profitability creation. We heard in the beginning, cash flow in the first 9 months at EUR 350 million only after 9 months. And you know, based on our seasonality, there will be still a strong increase on free cash flow only in quarter 4. Cash conversion rate above 90%, and the return on capital employed ends up at the moment at 20%. This will slightly decrease until the end of the year, but still exceptionally high. I think this strong financial performance also finally brings us to a very strong balance sheet. We have a net debt-to-leverage ratio which is, by the end of November, it's around about 1.2. I expect that this will further improve until the end of the year, and it will come more in the direction to 1, 1.1. So in this field, working capital is up, mainly value-driven. So we see, by the end of September, still inventory levels, especially on the side of finished goods, which are on the lower side, we will slightly increase now in quarter 4, especially our inventory levels, especially on the facing brick and on the clay block side, as we are planning in the beginning of next year some winter standstills, respectively, maintenance standstills. Because as you know, we have -- basically, we had no standstills during 2022. And we consciously shifted them also in the first 1, 2 -- January, February in 2023. Therefore, we will also end up with slightly higher inventory levels, especially on the clay block and facing bricks side. But all in all, working capital is fine. It's around about 20% on revenues by the end of September, which is, also considering the seasonality, totally fine. By the year-end, I expect the working capital which is around about a 70% in relation to revenues. Our energy forward-buying program, which we do already now for many, many years, we have a long-lasting experience there, is definitely something what we would say is a competitive advantage also to others which are on the market. It allows us basically to be very predictable when it's about our pricing, takes us in our cost planning and cost structuring, basically. And we feel comfortable what we see for this year. For sure, we are more or less fixed with the volumes, what we expect for the next weeks. But also in 2023, we said 90% we also feel very comfortable, the volumes what we have fixed for gas also for the next year. When it's about the self-help program, and I think this is important because this is contributing significantly also to our EBITDA development already since the last years, and this is a fixed operational excellence topic which we use and which we will also further on use in our strategy. And also, in the first 9 months, you see that the self-help program contributed with EUR 38 million. We expect for the fourth quarter another EUR 10 million, so that we almost will close -- come to close to EUR 50 million out of our self-help program in 2022. And what we see is also that there is a shift more in the direction of innovation and also to system selling. So that means also that the strategic shift to moving from products to innovations, respectively, to more solution selling, this is paying off, respectively, it's very good, contributing to our EBITDA development of our -- in 2022. The CapEx program that we initiated during the last years, our growth CapEx project -- program, basically, is also contributing with almost 35% on our cost structure, which is mainly basically reflected in automation, in energy efficiency, in capacity expansion. So here, basically, we get really a better cost structure and, basically, get a better cost discipline out of the program. I spoke before about the strong balance sheet. And I think if we also quickly stand still at our maturity profile, I think it is important also that we have -- for next year, I think we have some repayments planned of around about EUR 100 million. Then you see also that there is the repayments due of the bond -- of the smaller bond, of the EUR 250 million bond, which is out in the market, then in 2025, of the EUR 400 million bond, which we basically will then refinance. I think what is important to understand is that around about 3/4 of our gross debt is fixed at fixed interest rates, and the interest rate basically is below 3%. That means also that the increasing interest rate development, what we see across Europe, but also basically across North America, but you know the big part is financed at Wienerberger in euros, and we have basically mainly euro financing, is done basically on fixed interest rates. And we did a kind of a sensitivity where we basically also understand that 1 -- an increase of 1 percentage point in our interest rate is generating around about a EUR 5 million cash flow extra -- an additional financing cost, which is also, I think, good to understand that this is not hurting us really, that our cash flow, what we are generating, we have to use them basically to serve the financing costs. So let me summarize much more on this exceptional strong performance -- financial performance during the first 9 months. Organic growth in revenue in the top line by plus 19%. We see simply the shift to more innovation, to more system solution is helping us in strong pricing performance, is bringing us basically a better mix in our product portfolio and simply is generating more profitability than it's about cash flow generation. The earnings growth, we spoke about EBITDA. The net result, and I think this is also something which is exceptional in the history of Wienerberger that we had already after 9 months a net result of almost EUR 0.5 billion. The self-help and the M&A are contributing accordingly, as we said, a strong contribution there. Cash generation, the EUR 350 million we mentioned before. I think important also to mention is we distributed around about EUR 300 million back to the shareholders. You know that we have distributed EUR 80 million, EUR 85 million on dividend back in May. We have finalized in September our share buyback program, which was around about EUR 210 million, 215 EUR million. And we are currently progressing, and this is also basically communicated with the cancellation of around about 3% of our share capital. And this finally leads us to a very strong, I would say, a very low financial leverage, which is around about 1 -- at the year-end around about 1.1x. And I think with this strong set of numbers, Heimo, I would like to give back to you.

Thank you, Gerhard. And if you bear with me a couple of more minutes, and we will go through the outlook '22. I do know and I appreciate that everybody, especially in the financial community, sees a monster everywhere, under the desk, looking through the windows, through the door. And every other day comes out new numbers, inflation numbers and all sorts of numbers. And everybody tries to confirm that there's a crisis and the crisis is deeper and tougher and more ugly than originally thought. And I say this because when we look at Wienerberger, we have geared through this year and have shifted through this with all these sort of remarks. You don't have energy. You will be cut off the net. Energy prices out of reach, inflation, et cetera. And then now, obviously, now towards the end of the year, it's the interest rates that are going up. And I do appreciate and I do see this obviously also is a challenge. And this is also -- sort of you can see it in the markets that, obviously, starting with Eastern Europe, nobody was talking about it. But you remember, when I said at half year that interest rates in Central Eastern Europe are above 5% already, and they obviously increased. If I take the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and also Romania, we are far above 5%. We're actually in a range between 8% and 10% in those countries. So they had to deal with it. They had to deal with the Ukrainian crisis. But we managed in these countries, ladies and gentlemen, to improve our position, to improve it in sense of volume, in sense of margin also and pricing. And this makes me confident that we are on the right track and that will be also in the future case. And this year, obviously, these countries, on the basis of market -- end market, new residential housing market, are much more down than the indicated number for the group because, obviously, Northern Europe and Western Europe and America have only sort of started downward trending in the -- after the summer when interest rates were going up dramatically in these areas. So again, I'm just pointing out that we deal with those things and those challenges. And now I will expect the question, what is about quarter 4? Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we run our business not for a quarter but for years and decades. And we look throughout the quarter and especially the quarter 4 because this is, for us, a winter quarter, transition things and then moving into the next year. However, when you look at the numbers and compare quarter 4 last year to this year, last year has been an extremely strong quarter for a couple of reasons. First of all, we had a very mild winter and we were delivering our products throughout the whole month of December, even after Christmas. So this is, I think, a very important aspect. Secondly, we had price increases. You remember that we told to you last year that we initiated our price increases at the beginning of the year. So you had a lot of volume that got shifted into the distribution channels in December already. So this is not going to happen this year because there's no big price increases planned right now because we have done already in the fall period these price increases, and we're running into the next year with additional ones a little later. So this is, I think, some aspects to explain to you that we are not falling off a cliff, that we have no crisis coming right now, and that we are -- it's not the end of the world. We have still a very strong quarter 4, and the guidance of EUR 950 million, EUR 970 million is a very strong one and a very challenging one for us to reach because, obviously, there's a couple of weeks left this year, and we are on good track to reach it. But as I said, it's a challenging one. It's not a walk in the park, as the English would say. So this is, I think, from our aspect to '22. So all in all, as Gerhard has put it, extremely good year considering the circumstances that we're operating in. And now I do believe, if I look around and I have carefully reviewed your sort of statements of other companies in our sector and everything else, we are the one that comes up with some sort of indication about '23. And again, I think we are the first ones to give you a slight indication where we think markets might go to. Nobody here has a glass ball to look at and say, "This is going to happen," but it's our indication and what we see in the market happening. So on the new build market, we see a further decline from this year to next year, about 15% on a group level. Some countries might be a little more and some a little less, but this is our sort of general number that we come up with. Renovation should -- and we assume it's stable in all the markets that we're operating in. And the infrastructure shall be down by about 5%, driven by less money going from public funds into infrastructure, especially in Eastern Europe. You remember the discussions that the EU Commission has with Poland and with Hungary and other countries in Eastern Europe. This will certainly affect the business next year, and overall spending will be a little less here. However, and this is again, I think, a very strong statement in November of this year for next year, we have proven track record of covering cost by -- cost inflation by price increases. We will do so next year. We'll continue to do so and, therefore, push our portfolio of innovation system solutions further and continue, as Gerhard has elaborated, our self-help program also into '23, so with the necessary efforts that we have to put in place to get there. On the energy side, one word also. We assume full -- from our aspect, a full availability of energy resources for next year. I think we're in good shape with respect to the buying forward policy. You have seen or heard from Gerhard and from the presentation how much we have brought forward. And obviously, for fixed prices and, therefore, in relatively good shape. And above all, we continue our transition as far as related to -- from fuel from the existing ones to sustainable energy resources. And again, I think when we look at the overall picture of Wienerberger, keep in mind that the transformation that we talked at the beginning will continue. We are now a company that makes 50% or a little bit more than 50% turnover in water management and renovation. 50% -- less than 50% comes from energy-efficient new build. And here, again, also with new products and highly innovative products when it comes to walls and facade. This will continue because our innovation rate is currently higher than 30% of our turnover, and we will certainly put emphasis on this to improve. 25% will come in the future then from the system solutions and the integrated approach when we come to presales to our customers. And as I said at the beginning, we see us fit for further growth when we come to external growth, especially in renovation and water management. And I think one word at the end, in this changing and volatile environment, financially speaking and corporate speaking, it's very important to have a very strong corporate culture when we integrate companies and when we grow. And Wienerberger's culture is based on 2 major values, trust and respect, that we live every day with our more than 19,000 people. We focus and have focused very much on improving the skill set of our employees, not only on the production side, but especially in recent years on the sales side to establish very well-trained technical sales guys in order to improve our cross-sales between different divisions and also in the presales for projects, be it renovation or water management or new build. And happy to report that Wienerberger today is one of the best known brands in Europe when it comes to these applications. We regularly do measurements on our brand. We have brand awareness above 80% of Wienerberger with architects, with builders, but also with people who install our projects, with roofers, for example, or masons. And that makes us confident that we are on the right track with the positioning of this company. So thank you very much for your attention. And I hope Gerhard and myself could clarify some issues in this presentation already, but happy to take your questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] First question is from the line of Matthias Pfeifenberger with Deutsche Bank.

The first one is on your end-market expectations. Why have they deteriorated so much in a period of 3 months, from probably 4% to 5% down in Q2 to now 10% to 12% down for the year? Is it just that you saw it now in your numbers? Or is there something else that's changed? Because we saw permits crash, we saw mortgage rates going up, we saw affordability going down. So that's the first one.

We don't see it in our numbers, Matthias. That's the first one that I can signal to you. But as you correctly pointed out, the interest rates, obviously, and the sort of sentiment that we have around the different markets that we operate in, we see that there is a certain indication that the markets will go down in this range that we have mentioned to you.

And also in 2023, I mean, minus 15%. Why can it be minus 25%? Because you still said Western Europe quite resilient and still stable to growing housing markets in North America.

Well, I think that's what I tried to say, Matthias. Everybody sees the monster somewhere, and you can say there will be no houses built next year, but that's what we don't see. I think from our perspective, there will be some stabilization and some sort of settling at a certain level. We -- at this stage, when you look at the different numbers that we get from the market with respect to permits and also the sentiment, again, we think that it was about 15% overall for the whole group. That's the best sort of number that we can come up with at this stage in November.

Okay. Fair enough. And the second one is really on pricing, 20% plus versus plus 16% on costs. So huge price over cost, huge outpricing the cost inflation, 430 bps of margin expansion in the Building Solutions. North America a bit different because of the M&A, but 770 bps on the paper. So I mean, we haven't seen any of the build mats players raise margins by that amount. Most of them have even had difficulties catching up with the cost inflation. So how is that actually respectful of the clients, if I can put it a bit more frankly? How sustainable is that? And how impactful was that on the minus 9% volumes?

Well, I think when you look at it, and by all due respect for your comment, and I'm not going to challenge it, Matthias, but our price increases have been moderate in the sense if I compare it with other industries that have been above 30% and nearly approaching 40% in certain aspects. So we have -- due to the fact that we obviously buy forward and have a very strategic purchasing policy in place for all raw materials and energy that we use, I think we were able to do that. Outpricing, if you want to put it in this way, is for 2 reasons. First of all, we have improved the product portfolio. Keep this in mind. Obviously, the mix, as you would call it, is trading upwards. So here, we have a better pricing. And therefore, the client and the customer gets more value for what he pays than in the past. So the acceptance to switch to Wienerberger products was also because we -- not of have available products, but we have products and solutions that suit better in the marketplace right now. So there is fair amount of mix also in it.

Okay. And the last one is really on gas. Could you still confirm that the has hedging, the forward purchasing, is still below current spot rates for '23 and '24?

I confirm this, yes, Matthias. Very clear.

Next question is from the line of George Speak with BNP Paribas Exane.

Now that gas prices have come off their peak, are you seeing any of the smaller competitors start to reenter the market? And if so, how does that impact your pricing power as we go into next year?

For the moment, I think it has come off a little bit, but it's still very high. And especially when you take the winter months, and we've talked about Wienerberger and what we do, Gerhard explained the standstill, the maintenance. This is not the time when you enter market with production at this very time because it's highly energy-intensive when you start up your plant, and the winter months are not the best ones to run your plant. So a lot of these players that you were referring to or the smaller ones will stay out of production for a while. And we will see next year how it goes, yes. For the moment, I don't see any sort of major pressure in this respect.

Okay. That's really clear. And then just another one, sort of sticking with pricing. So I mean, how much pricing power do you think you guys can still continue to have if we go into a double-digit volume downside scenario? Can you still pass the price increases on to customers? And do you think the industry will still stay rational?

Well, I think the industry, that remains, and we have a fairly now consolidated industry in most of the markets in Europe -- not in all, but in most of the markets. And we have seen it, in Northern and Western Europe, it's fairly rational these days. So they have all the issues with the inflationary cost increases and will stay rather rational. And if we see and in the event that you allude to a double-digit sort of decline in volumes, I think everybody will certainly plan and try to sort of structure the production in a way to reduce it in that we don't have an oversupply. So this is a fair guess that I have today because, obviously, everybody is interested, especially the ones that are on the stock exchange, like our English colleagues or on the continent, bigger companies that are in hands of private equity that will focus on profitability and have, obviously, to do so because of financing and other issues.

Okay. And then maybe one last question. Just in terms of your order book, how you kind of -- how you're currently feeling? What level of visibility in terms of months have you got? And maybe just how does that compare to this time last year?

Well, I think, when you look at last year, we were also in this sense not over dramatically positive, if I may say so. You had obviously cost increases coming around our corner. And we had to put up prices, so we were not sure how this will be accepted in the marketplace. So a year ago was -- I would say, we didn't obviously have the war. We didn't have this real energy crisis, if I may say so. And now the interest rates were compared to last year much lower in this sort of aspect. But still, it was not over dramatically positive. The order books last year were also, I mean, a little bit sort of turned upward down because of our early price increases. So therefore, we shifted a lot of volumes in the distribution chain before Christmas. So it was difficult to see what really comes out. And we were a little worried about the first quarter, I must say, last year at this very time. And compared to this year, I think, when you look at the value chain, there's not much inventory in the value chain right now. So there's not a high risk that it's oversupplied right now. So from our perspective, the order intake in some areas is pretty normal for this period of the year and others a little bit more instable. But generally speaking, visibility is around 3 months plus/minus in certain areas, a little bit more than in others. But 3 months is a good sort of view, and there's not so much difference compared to last year, I must say.

Next question is from the line of Brijesh Siya with HSBC.

I have 2. The first one is on your comment about infrastructure. You talked about a 5% volume decline. That's slightly probably weaker than what we thought. But if you could explain, is it because you have your higher in-house exposure from your piping business that's driving that number? If you could clarify that. And the second one is on your M&A. Now the market is kind of in a different environment with volumes down significantly. How do you look to play that in 2023? Would you kind of preserve your balance sheet and not go for M&A? Or you see more opportunities which could be value-accretive in this market and, hence, go for it?

I will take your first -- your second question first and Gerhard will do the first one, if I may. I think you see, when you have opportunities on the table and they come at the right price and in this very moment, consolidation is obviously a key aspect and value driver for our industry because you only do it once. And you will appreciate if I say that if we in the renovation field or in the water management will find opportunities that come at the right price, we will move on it. We have a strong balance sheet. We have strong cash generation, and I do believe we have the necessary, especially management, skills to do this. And we will certainly move on such targets because we are buying here not for a quarter or 1 year but for the long run. And as I said, to consolidate industries to make ourselves and our position stronger, and then we can obviously also increase our value, selling proposition with more products and more solutions. This is the right time and the right moment to go for that. And Gerhard?

You asked for the volume decline, respectively, the infrastructure market. I think, for this year, what I understood, the minus 5% to minus 7%, it is -- we have a part of the impact is coming from the in-house, which is more related also to the new build segment. And therefore, we see here minus 5% to minus 7%. Our performance of minus 9%, what I mentioned before, is also influenced, what you have to consider, that we exited basically from 3 markets. We exited, you should consider, from Greece. We exited from Russia, and we exited France. And this is also when you consider that has an impact on volume of around about almost 4% to 5%.

Next question is from the line of Yassine Touahri with On Field Investment Research.

A couple of questions. First, I think you gave -- I understand that you've got some visibility on your backlog for the next 3 months. So could you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing in October, November and what you see for the fourth quarter? Is it fair to assume that do you see the same kind of volume decline as what you've seen in the third quarter, let's say, minus 9%? And then on pricing -- sorry.

It's a fair assumption, yes.

Right.

And then on pricing, is it fair to assume that the pricing is relatively stable sequentially compared to the third quarter?

Correct.

So when I do the math, and please correct me...

Then you do your math -- sorry to interrupt you. Then you do your math, and then you come up with a number, yes, I understand it.

But it's best if...

I do -- I don't interrupt you. I just say you do your math and you come to a number. The number is very accurate, and I'm not arguing against this number. I'm just arguing that, obviously, in the fourth quarter, you have a couple of issues. You have vacation periods, you have downtime because of bad weather, et cetera. So you calculate the full thing, and I can't do that right now. So I just -- you just -- I mean, this is a discussion that we could do, both of us, an hour, and we will not come to a conclusion. Let's pause here and say, "Listen, we will do our best." And from our perspective, I think when we put in, you might -- it's not conservative, by the way, the guidance that we give. And it's not because we see some dramatic issues, as I've confirmed to you now. I think it's a reasonable approach that we take considering that the business is exposed to weather and to other conditions that we cannot influence.

On the margin side, would you expect some margin pressure in the fourth quarter? Or is it too cautious?

I wouldn't say that there will be major pressure, but it could be, and this is in our planning phase that we go out a little bit earlier with certain production so that from a cost perspective it's a little higher. So -- that's what I'm trying to say, the fourth quarter -- and for me fourth and the first quarter of the year is always this sort of month where it's in transition. So I don't view -- run the business on a quarterly basis is a very tricky issue here. So you need to give us the sort of freedom in the sense of that we need to manage it through this winter period. So it's not about margins that we will deteriorate dramatically, but it might be influenced by some factors.

I understand that it's a small quarter and month to month anything can change, it's not so important. But if we look maybe more at 2023, in an environment where volumes are declining, do you have an idea of what is your operating leverage? So I have in mind that if I look at the past 15 years, when you lost or when you gained [ EUR 100 ] of turnover, your EBITDA was impacted between like 30% and 40%. Actually, you would gain or lose [ EUR 30 or EUR 40 ] of EBITDA. Is it something that you're looking at? And what kind of cost-cutting measure -- sorry.

Well, I think from a cost-cutting measure and adjustment of overhead costs and production costs, I think we're in pretty good shape. We have our sort of plans if in the event we see major downward movements in certain areas, yes. But from the one that you have mentioned sort of the operational leverage, please keep in mind that old Wienerberger that has been exposed mostly to clay products, this was easier because you go up with the capacity, you go down with capacity. It's more or less commoditized product. So today, we are a much broader product range with pipes, with roof tiles, with all sorts of systems. So it's not this sort of clinical mathematical approach where you can say this is the operational leverage.

The cost structure today is different than the years back. We have today a much higher share of costs, which we can variabilize and which have not really this kind of fixed cost structure, what we have seen basically in 2009, 2010. This is, I think, what Heimo just tried to explain is that the cost structure is different today than the cost structure in 2009, 2010.

Is it fair to say that your operating leverage would be lower because the Piping Solutions has a lower contribution margin?

I think our approach is that we keep the profitability, the margin as high as possible, so we do all our best basically to keep the margin where it is. There will be some pressure, as we tried to explain before. We have some maintenance standstills in the beginning. And therefore, with the maintenance standstill, you have some uncovered fixed costs. This will put a pressure on our margin. And also keep in mind that we have this exceptional good margin development in the U.S. piping business, which is also now partly and also step by step slowing down. And this is also what we will see next year.

The last question is about the potential subsidies on gas and electricity in Germany. Is it something that you could have access to or some of your German competitor could have access to? I understand that it might be possible to get electricity, for example, at EUR 120 per megawatt hour. And if some of your competitors access that, could it impact the level of price increase that they're putting on the market?

Well, I think, first of all, the announcements or the discussion in politics is one thing and what comes into reality is another one. I'm aware that some discussions like this take place. Wienerberger, we are determined to run our business without subsidies, and we see it as our competitive advantage to do the forward policy buying and purchasing and optimizing the business. As I explained to your colleague, I think even if those -- if they put something similar in place, the smaller competitors will have difficulties in order to run this through the winter because, normally, energy consumption is higher and it's obviously very costly. And it's not that so easy for them to come back into the marketplace so quickly. So I don't see or I don't foresee a major sort of change right now in the upcoming months.

Next question is from the line of Pam Liu with Morgan Stanley.

I have 3 questions, please. The first one is really a follow-on from a previous question. It's about thinking about how much of the full year 2022 margin is or would be within your control into 2023. So we've already talked about cost-cutting or self-help. Can you give us a bit more color on how much more scope do you have on that? Because as far as I can see, you are already very, very efficient. And then the second question -- sorry, the second part of the same question is really thinking about price/cost. And coming back to the piping business, I think the price increase has been very, very impressive. But we know that plastic resin cost has come down. So just thinking about how quickly that pricing can normalize in the coming quarters, that would be really helpful. The second question is you mentioned that the cost inflation year-to-date is 16%. Would you be able to share how much it would have been had you not have your forward buying procurement policy in place? And then the final question is, if I remember correctly, back at first half earnings call, we talked about the shares that you bought back and are not yet canceled at that point, which could be providing some sort of optionality for perhaps larger M&A transactions. So could you please give us an update on that? And how does your M&A pipeline look like today?

Thank you very much for your very sort of to-the-point questions, if I may say so. Taking last question first, M&A, the pipeline is good. It's really in all of our activities, very interesting because, as I said, you have some family business that are currently contemplating if they should continue their business or not. So this is obviously in key markets for us, so it's interesting to pursue. You can never say when this then materializes, but we closely follow this. And this is true for all of our activities. Then obviously, we look carefully in expanding our exposure to renovation because we see this especially in Europe as a major driver of the business in the next decade or so. So improving our performance here in the sense of exposure is something that we clearly prioritize. So here, obviously, also, we pursue certain opportunities, and we'll see if they materialize again. And also, the same goes for water management. You've seen that we buy some smaller companies right now in the north of Europe with respect to water management. We will expand this throughout the geographies that we are active in. So this is from a pipeline perspective. Yes, we have bought back about 7% of Wienerberger. We have canceled 3% of the shares already, and this successfully will be announced, I think, in a couple of weeks. It's the procedure that Austrian law requires. And the rest of the shares, we hold them right now. And you're absolutely right, it's for us a transaction currency. And we will certainly use this in this way that also these smaller midsized deals that the families and people who sell their business will get shares from us because, obviously, we see this as a good transaction currency right now. So this is something which we want to keep on our balance sheet, if you may -- if I say so for the while. And again, M&A, yes, promising, very good deals. You've seen our performance in the last years that we have made midsized and small-size funds, good payback rates and then improve, obviously, our performance also in difficult times. So that's on the shares, the M&A activity and the sort of way forward. On the margin side, generally speaking, you see we have improved margin and continue to do so. It's, as I said, a mixed self-help result. It's also obviously because we have here running our factories and our production very efficiently currently because it's a full speed and full capacity utilization, one. So we are really in an optimal scenario here. And as Gerhard has pointed out, if we go back in capacity utilization, this will obviously, and it's a normal thing, influence our margins. So we can sort of cut back costs, so in such a way that we keep the margins at this level. So yes, they are at a very favorable level. But you can see as analysts that what the potential of Wienerberger is when we run obviously full capacity and when we use our pricing power in certain markets. And I do think that we have pricing power enough to offset further cost inflation if it comes also for 2023. But then I hand over to you, Gerhard.

I think, Pam, the question on cost inflation, if we would not have bought forward, basically, energy, is what I understood was your question, on the total cost inflation of 16%, I would say roughly 20%, in this range, would be then the cost inflation of the group if there would be basically no forward buying on the energy.

But not only energy, by the way, other things as well, yes.

Yes, energy is a part of it. But yes, we do basically -- we have annual contracts for resin. So we have different mechanism in our procurement department where we simply secure -- try to secure cost development during the year, and this definitely helps us. And I think this brings also this kind of competitive advantage that we have our cost structure very well under control. And this is also what we said in the beginning where we had the discussion with Matthias. This automatically also -- only if you follow the market price development, this brings exceptional profitability, basically, yes.

Okay. So if I can just squeeze in a little one more. So on the piping business, the price increase in Q3 has been very impressive, but we also know that the plastic resin input cost has actually declined as well. So just trying to get a sense of how quickly do you think the pricing on piping could normalize.

I think we will in the fourth quarter because we definitely in the fourth -- in the third quarter, the pricing in the piping business was -- somehow also we were pushing pricing, and we kept also pricing on a high level. We have seen that some of the competitors started already going down with prices. Our clear ambition is to keep the prices up, respectively, to secure the margin, the profitability as we have it today, and by that, also bringing a big part of the profitability of the margin also to 2023.

Next question is from the line of Tobias Woerner with Stifel.

Congratulations for working and managing through crisis after crisis. The first question relates to the RMI outlook. Could you give us a little bit more color on how you see this? As an aside, do you think that the roofing piece will benefit from PV, the solar side of the equation in terms of reroofing being needed ahead of PVs being put on top of roofs? The second question relates to the North American piece, piping piece again. There was this one-off effect last year of EUR 30 million. How has that developed? And should we expect that to be given back into next year? And maybe if you could give us a little bit of a sense of the breakdown between piping and building solutions or bricks, in other words, and what the margin contribution was. And then just lastly, in terms of energy. What was the increase on the EUR 280 million last year? You should have a pretty good picture on that now looking for the remainder of the year. And I noticed that energy is...

Sorry, Tobias. I couldn't hear the last question. Can you repeat that? You dropped away.

Yes. Sorry, apologies. So the EUR 280 million last year in energy, where we should assume the inflation rate for that, where we should end for that. And what I noticed, when you look back '21 and '22, energy was 7% of sales, but historically, it was about 10%. So how should we see that. Sorry. Apologies for all these questions. I can repeat them if you want.

No, no, no. I've got all of it. Thank you very much. On the roofing side, I think, yes, that's why I stressed it. Our biggest exposure in renovation is on the roofing, and we see this trend continuing throughout Europe, especially when energy prices for the individuals are high, renovation on the roof is stimulated. It's not only linked to the solar and this part of the business, but more to really insulate and put a new roof on your house. Also extensions play here a role. Because from a permitting perspective, this is an easier one to get right now and quicker and more efficient and less costly to do. So yes, to answer your question, we have here a good underlying business and compared to others not declining. And this will continue throughout next year as well. So this is on the roofing front.

Maybe on the last one, the energy cost is what you asked. And you're right, this 7%, around about, of revenues, and we also expect that we will stay on this level. For this year, we expect around about 8% in relation to revenues. And yes, around about this number, you have to keep in mind energy cost will move in the direction of around about EUR 370 million, yes, as we simply have also higher consumptions compared -- higher output compared to last year.

Now on the North American one, on the piping, we have said that -- obviously, Gerhard has explained it, that our colleagues have been very good at purchasing this upfront and having good pricing there on the purchasing front and then, obviously, giving it onwards to our clients and customers. However, this -- due to the fact that resin prices are trending downwards in the U.S., you will see here a coming down of this sort of exceptional phase that we have seen over the last 1.5 years, nearly 2 years.

So this will slow down. And I think what is important to understand is that the brick business, also considering the M&A, the Meridian M&A, and also considering the remedies, you know that we had also to sell off 3 plants, also 1 plant out of our legacy business of General Shale. And we are now, after the first 9 months basically in line with prior years, even in a slowing down market, basically, in the third quarter. So the first 9 months in the legacy business is in line with the prior year, even in a weaker market than what we have seen and what we have expected. As mentioned before, Meridian is developing exceptionally good, also pricing-wise and not only synergy-wise. Also there, basically, the pricing improved, especially in the Southeastern part of the U.S. significantly. So yes, and the piping, we don't expect this negative impact. But you have mentioned in the beginning, for this year, what we see is that basically this exceptional profitability, what we have realized this year, this will slow down in the next months and will also slow down, basically, during the next year.

Next question is from the line of Patrick Steiner with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Congratulations on the great results. Two questions from my side. First, could you again touch on the energy subject? If I understood correctly, you said that you have developed a roof tile plant that runs completely on electricity. This is only for roof tiles? Could this possibly be extended to other clay-based product? And how would this affect the cost base of the clay business if rolled out further? And the second question would be, given the ongoing strong performance in the roofing business, how much of production could you actually shift in the clay business from blocks and facing bricks to roof tiles to reduce excess capacity possibly going forward?

I might take the second question first. Unfortunately, and this is due to the completely different technology that you use and the products that are very different and also the raw material preparation, you cannot shift here capacity or products between those sort of product groups. So they are very different from clay -- roof tiles to clay bricks with respect to clay blocks and even to clay facing bricks. They are very different. All of them, all the 3 groups, major groups, have different technology, different processes and different raw materials. So this is, unfortunately, not the case for us to shift around easily or at all.

I think the second question you have mentioned, we are planning to build or to rebuild, basically to shift ceramic roof tile plant in the U.K. We want to electrify, and we are preparing that and are planning to start, basically. We already have started, but we will start with rebuilding during 2023. And yes, this is a concept, what we can roll out, basically, not only on the roof tile segment. You know that we have already an electrified kiln for facing brick slips. And basically, we keep going, and we are planning in Austria that we are also electrifying next year a first clay block plant here in Austria, in Upper Austria, in Uttendorf. So basically, we go step by step. And at the moment, we are focusing on electrification of the firing process.

Perfect. Understood. Maybe a quick follow-up question. I was wondering to what degree is your pricing in the new build sector, like clay products, basically, limited through competitors' lumber-based concepts. I mean, if you look at the strongly increasing mortgage rates, lower real household incomes and so on, if brick prices were to increase further, wouldn't potential customers switch to lumber-based concepts? What's your view on that?

Actually, we have seen the contrary during the last 12 months, that people were moving away from timber-based solutions to more masonry and brick-based solutions for 2 major reasons: availability, first; secondly, also pricing because timber has been up dramatically due to the shortage; and also the third one was the life span and the whole sort of discussion with ESG. Because, obviously, timber and lumber house is not a timber house, as such, it consists of a lot of materials. And you can't ensure insulation. You need to sort of put special insulation on it, higher one and more efficient one, because this modern timber-based solutions, which I call them because they're not 100% timber, have no insulation value. So again, here, I think there has been a certain shift, especially in the 1- and 2-family house, Austria, Germany and Eastern European countries away from these timber-based solutions.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Tobias Woerner with Stifel.

Apologies to extend the call, but I have one follow-up question regarding labor costs. Maybe just remind us where the inflation will end up or is likely to end up for the year. And you probably had your wage negotiations already with the unions. What sort of inflation we should expect for next year?

We are in the middle of those negotiations, depending country by country. But I think, when you look for next year, it's in the range of 5% to 10%, depending on the country. But I would say it's more in the range of around 8%. I think if there are no more questions, I give back to Daniel.

Thank you very much. Thank you to Mr. Scheuch and Mr. Hanke. Thank you also, operator, for supporting. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for taking the time for dialing in today. The next conference call will be on the 22nd of February in the new year on our full year 2022 results. And for today, I can only wish you a nice remaining afternoon. Stay safe, and goodbye.