WW International, Inc. (WW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 13, 2023

US conference_presentation 30 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#1

Okay. Great. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. My name is Nathan Feather, and I work on Lauren Schenk's small and mid-cap Internet team here at Morgan Stanley. I am very excited to be joined by Sima Sistani, Weight Watchers Chief Executive Officer; and Heather Stark, Weight Watchers Chief Financial Officer. Thank you both so much for joining us today. Now before we begin, a few quick housekeeping items. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#2

And with that out of the way, I think it may be helpful to start with an overview for investors that may be new to the story. Sima, how does the core Weight Watchers business work? And how have you been evolving that model since you joined?

Sima Sistani

executive
#3

Sure. Well, let me start with this since I joined because it's been 1.5 years, and my background is in growth tax, social, digitizing social relationships. And I think that's really important to bring up because Weight Watchers is the original social network. It's a community. And when you ask what is the core Weight Watchers business, at its heart, that's what it is. Nutrition science, yes, of course, behavior change. Yes, of course. But what makes us special, what makes us different is the peer-to-peer and peer to coach accountability keeping people accountable to healthy habits. I don't know if any of you guys are watching the Blue Zones documentary, Well, what do they say? It's not just how you move. It's not just what you eat. It's your social circles that help you define that. And so I think that's what we've done well from 60 years ago when we were founded by Jean Nidetch and that's what we continue to do. But the difference is, our membership base accelerated during COVID times to being 80% Digital only. And what was happening was that gold standard experience of people coming together in those peer-to-peer groups wasn't happening in the third space. And so we're bringing in all of the design principles around disclosure, repeat encounters, reciprocity, rituals, we're bringing that to the digital landscape. And so those are the, that's a big evolution that we've been making as a brand. The other part of it is an increase in our pathways. So it's not just about weight loss, it's about weight health. And there are several different solutions that can help you achieve weight health, whether that's functional, clinical behavior change. So we're going digital first, and we're expanding our pathways.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#4

Okay. Awesome. And on one of those [ properties. ] I want to talk about the recent Sequence acquisition. Can you spend a minute talking through how that model works? And then more broadly, how are you thinking about the opportunity obesity medications provide across the entire business?

Sima Sistani

executive
#5

Sure. Let me take the latter first, which is, when you think about the space and what it means, we've been living in a world where there's so much stigma associated with living with overweight and obesity. And we are trying to reframe that conversation around weight health and reduce the shame and the stigma that is associated with it. It's really important to do that for people to advocate first themselves for them to seek help, in fact, next week, September 20, we -- tune in, we are having an important conversation that Oprah Winfrey is leading through Oprah Daily, basically to talk about the medications. And this is the first time that she will be doing that. And it's important because in addition to Weight Watchers being a brand that they trust, she is a trusted resource, and there's so much misinformation. There's so many bad actors, and it's an important opportunity to harness the conversation, speak to the chronic condition. And so that's an important part of why we are talking about clinical interventions in the first place? So that brings me back to the first part of your question, which is Sequence. What is that? Telehealth platform. It's our virtual clinic that's simply put. But you can really break it down into 5 core parts of the experience, which is Intake, we ID you, get the weight verification, understand your medical behavior change weight loss history, and we have rigorous constraints around making sure that it's an appropriate, you're appropriate candidate. And then there's a consultation, which is a visit with a clinician, and this is somebody who's been trained in obesity care and management. And that's really an important differentiator in what we're providing. There's insurance support, these medications, they require pre-authorization. There is a lot of titration that happens along the journey. They are expensive. [indiscernible] engine is incredibly important. We make it simple for the clinician and for the member. Then there's medical -- Med management because, again, the dosages need to be titrated. We want to understand the care. We want to make sure that we're managing symptoms. And finally, as a lifestyle component, that's where Weight Watchers comes in. Where we are ensuring that you have the right behavior change and lifestyle intervention that is happening alongside the medications because that's how you get the great outcomes. The medications, they help you with satiety, but then once you have stopped the hunger, the noise, the brain fog, what we're trying to do is use that moment to help people adhere to the lifestyle changes that actually help them live healthy habits for the rest of their lives. So that's the Sequence.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#6

Great. And one of the more common questions we get is around Sequence's competitive advantages. So can you just spend a minute talking about why a patient would choose Sequence over either their primary care physician or another telephone provider?

Sima Sistani

executive
#7

Yes. So going back to, let's start with Telehealth provider, what I was saying before, the 5 different parts of this process. Insurance support is incredibly important. These medications are expensive, but it's a taxing process for both the clinician and the member, and when we're, it's not like a statin or an ED medication where you just get the prescription and you walk away, you have to continue to titrate the dosage. And so that's happening throughout the process. So that is a differentiator this, basically putting the insurance process on tech rails. The part that I mentioned about training our clinicians in obesity care, most, and this goes to the difference between going to your provider, most GPs don't have any training in nutritional science. I say that with love. My brother is a doctor, he had one nutrition class, his entire tenure in medical school. Most doctors only have about 11 hours of training. It's really important because consumers what they care about most is not just losing weight, but managing their symptoms. And in order to do that well, need to be trained in the right type of care. And so we're doing both of those things. alongside, obviously, our behavior change program, which is the #1 doctor recommended program and endorsed also by U.S. World and news report as the Best Diet and Behavior Change Program for the last 13 years.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#8

Okay. Awesome. And looking a little more recently over the past few months, supply constraints across GLP-1s have been a material impact to the space. So how has this impacted Sequence? And then more broadly, how are you thinking about marketing spend on the brand as a result?

Heather Stark

executive
#9

So I'll talk about the supply constraints. And obviously, yes, they are impacting us in the space in general. There are supply constraints going on in the space. And, what I would share is all the good work we're doing to ready for when supply returns or starts to grow back to a normal or consistent growth rate. So, during this time, we are leaned into working on our integration, so integrating Weight Watchers and Sequence into a common platform, integrating the experience into our app. Getting ready our GLP-1 Companion Program to launch ahead of our peak season. And by that, I mean, members can come into Weight Watchers and sign up for our core program, and it is a healthy habit building behavior change app based program. You can identify on the way into that program as I'm diabetic. And we're going to give you a tailored diabetic program, et cetera. We work to tailor to your needs. And we will be tailoring and launching a program tailored to the needs of people on a GLP-1 program and launching that ahead of our peak season, and that will be complementary to a Sequence subscriber, but also available to our general membership because there will be people who come through that would like the GLP-1 behavior change support, but maybe they have access elsewhere or maybe they don't have an insurance need or some of the needs that are built into what we're providing the team has spoke to, within Sequence. So we're leaned into integration. We're also leaned into testing and learning during this timeframe. We've not really unleashed marketing yet. Sima can speak to the marketing efforts, but we're readying and testing and thinking about what to do from a marketing perspective when the time comes that we're comfortable that supply is returning.

Sima Sistani

executive
#10

And I think what the shortages are showing up are our differentiators and how we are able to support numbers because not only do we prescribe GLP-1 but we have a wide formulary. So we're able to move people to generics or other forms of medication or to our core behavior change program as we work with them during this time. And the ability for that tech stack that I mentioned, that's automation, AI powered to be able to inform which pharmacy is more likely to have a medication in stock, that's given us a real advantage. And that's why even within the scope of the supply constraints and since the acquisition, we, on our last call, reported a 40% step-up in subscribers. And I think that, that was really meaningful given the constraints we were operating in, and even so, we are holding back intentionally. We did not buy this business for 2023. It's important for us to maintain the high NPS and the trust, and so we want to ensure that people who are coming into our platform that we can ensure the continuity of care.

Heather Stark

executive
#11

We're also leaning into on the like readiness of our own scaling. So with the integration and efforts that we're undertaking, we want to make sure that we're taking the time to scale up our clinicians. We have a rigorous 12-week training program that we put new clinicians through back to Sima's point. And we have, we actually have a waitlist of clinicians waiting to be onboarded and work for us. We have a high NPS with clinicians. They want to work for us. They like our platform. We're working on continuing to scale that clinician capacity base so that we don't have a human capital constraint as supply issues.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#12

Okay. Great. And looking out over the medium term once hopefully, we get past some the supply issues. How are you thinking about the growth path for Sequence? And then given all the work you're doing now to tackle some of the potential stealing issues, what are you going to see as those potential difficulties again, once supply starts to come back online?

Sima Sistani

executive
#13

So very bullish, obviously, on a long-term growth potential, medium-term growth potential. I think, again, the supply shortages has only given us an opportunity to make sure our readiness is there. And, the other piece of this, though, with regards to constraints beyond this moment because, obviously, the manufacturers are working on this. We're going to get this figured out. But what's really going to unlock this category is our payers, is policy. These medications are incredibly expensive. And so we are motivated to work with DC in a bipartisan fashion such that we can help move Medicare Part D and talk about the [indiscernible] act that was reintroduced and talk about the fact that these are life saving medications, and you're seeing that now with the SELECT trial, showing that there's a 20% less likelihood of a cardiovascular event. The leading cause of the heart disease. We're saying one out of every 5 people we're going to save a life. That's amazing. And so we have to be focused on the health equity here, ensuring that all populations, not just those with who are, who have private insurance are able to access these medications. The other constraint is obviously the injectable format, and we know that people are working that -- manufacturers are working on pills. They are moving through the process, too. So I think from a macro standpoint, there are a couple of different things that can really shake up this category.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#14

Okay. Awesome. And before we move back to core, Heather, you mentioned that you're launching a new lifestyle program for patients on GLP-1s regardless of whether they get them for Sequence or not. So I guess, just can you expand a little bit on the rationale behind that program? And then how should investors think about the launch timeline, especially considering dieting season kind of next January?

Heather Stark

executive
#15

Sure. So launch timeframe, quite simply put ahead of our next peak season, so ahead of January. And then in terms of the program itself, it is there and designed to help people on GLP-1 focus on the things that matter when you're on GLP-1. There's a very real need to focus on good choices and healthy habits so your learning behavior change over time. But very specifically, while you're on the medication, the medications are designed to help you, you're going to lose body mass. We'd like you to lose fat mass versus muscle mass. So let's focus on lean, good proteins, let's focus on muscle density building exercise and, let's focus on hydration to help you offset any of the symptoms you may feel well on these medications. So that's the real design intent behind that. And really looking and feeling like Weight Watchers even, I think, is important so that as members want to move around within the services that we provide, it is a Weight Watchers platform that they're seeing in that healthy habit building behavior change platform.

Sima Sistani

executive
#16

And why allow anybody to get it? I think that was an important part of the question right there, which was, yes, whether or not you get. We're not in the prescription business. We're in the subscription business. So whether or not you get those medications through us or not, we want to help people. And so our program is going to help people manage their symptoms, no matter where they get it from. And I think that, that's a really important differentiator in our product also globally where the insurance support, there's more insurance support. The medications are more affordable. And so we might see some different dynamics in terms of Telehealth versus people going to their doctors. And so I think offering the program widely is important to us.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#17

Okay. Great. Switching back over to the core, 2Q subscribers grew sequentially over 1Q. The first time that's happened. Can you break down the key drivers of the better than traditional seasonality? And whether those are sustainable?

Sima Sistani

executive
#18

Product, product, product, product, performance marketing as well as an overall more awareness and alignment with our Weight Health messaging. I'll come back to product. We've been talking about activation rate for a while, looking at the first 30 days when somebody onboards and being able to then have that, use that as a predictor of whether they are more likely to stay and retain to the program. That's allowed us to be evergreen, nimble about our product roadmap. And so we've been making some really critical improvements to that experience. And, the best is yet to come in terms of that. We've got some really great launches coming up in terms of our progress and trends tab as well as our [indiscernible] in the app. I'd always said the product needs to do the marketing for it. This is a very word-of-mouth experience. On the marketing side, we are taking a modern approach, frankly. Come in, changed us from upfront TV buying and modernize. We've in-housed our performance marketing function. We are moving more nimbly across channels, across geo, and we're able to be more responsive to what's working. We're just taking more modern lens on our marketing. And then finally, obviously, there's been a lot of interest in the space. We moved quickly into this new modality. There's been a lot of earned media around it. But I also think what's really resonating is the authenticity with which we're approaching it. Talking and speaking to where Weight Watchers didn't resonate in the past. And where we got it wrong and talking about the evolution in our understanding of living with overweight and obesity. And the fact that for some, it is a chronic condition, and that it's not just a matter of will power. And talking about weight health broadly. This isn't just about weight loss. This is about what we can help you to gain health. It's resonating. And so that's a part of the mix, too.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#19

Okay. Great. And maybe thinking a little more broadly there. You've talked about the 3 key pillars for the digital first roadmap of coaching, accountability and community. Can you dig a little bit more on how the digital experience you see evolving to properly tackle those 3 pillars?

Sima Sistani

executive
#20

Yes. Well, one of the things that we've talked about, and I want to take a step back and note that the IRL component is really important. What we were saying no to or goodbye to, should I say, is these brick-and-mortar spaces where we owned and operated and had a lease for a space that we use for a couple of hours a day and where we sold a bunch of products. Well, as we've rationalized that business and as we think about meeting people where they are, it doesn't necessarily make sense to have those spaces. Rather, we're doubling down on workshops and shared experiences. So we want people to continue to meet in person. We want to inspire them with that, but I think we can do it in a much more meaningful way. "Hey, I'm taking a walk in Bryant Park, who wants to join me " why not have a workshop at a coffee shop. There's just a lot more interesting things that we can do in that space. And we talked about the fact that we are introducing actually, let me take a step back. When you look at our membership base as a whole, we've noticed that there, the density of the ability of people to have like hundred other members around them within a certain radius, it's astounding. I mean where I'm from is Huntsville, Alabama. I mean I have so many other members that I can get together with. So we want, we don't want to get keep that to just our premium members. And so we're testing a concept called Local Chapters. We're doing this based on location. We're really excited to see how we can actually amplify our IRL experience, that coaching, that accountability, that community and have this clicks-to-bricks connection such that even when I walk away, I'm holding the app, and I still can continue those connections when I'm not there with you in person or I start with IRL digital experience, and I'm delighted, I'm inspired to then come and meet you in person.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#21

Okay. Great. Now shifting gears a bit to the cost side. Certainly, a lot has changed in the business over the past few years. So can you provide some color on the puts and takes for EBITDAS margin as we think about the next few years? And any reason why you couldn't get back to the kind of 20% levels or above?

Heather Stark

executive
#22

Definitely targeting getting back to those levels and above and not satisfied with where they are at this moment, but we're in the turnaround point in time in the business. And to the point that Sima just made about our former studio heavy location side of the workshop business, we have really taken this year to rationalize nonstrategic business lines, nonstrategic retail locations and our workforce. And that has really helped us get to what we shared in the Q2 earnings call, an all-time high gross margin, and we expect that to continue to read through in the business by all of this good work that we've done on the cost side of the business. And as we return the business to growth back to the Q2 comment that you made, our step up in subscriber base, we expect to see that continued growth in sign-ups, growth year-over-year in our subscriber base. While holding on these costs, and we've done all sorts of good work to manage, while serving up a great service to all of our membership, where they would like us to be, how they would like to be served. And I would expect that all to read through in the future.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#23

Okay. Great. And let's spend a minute on the capital structure. Where do you see the liquidity position of the business today? And how do you envision the capital structure evolving over the next few years?

Heather Stark

executive
#24

So liquidity position today. We exited Q2 with about $91 million in cash, a comfortable position. And I don't expect an uncomfortable position from a liquidity perspective. We are a high cash-generating business. And look, coming out of Q2 with $91 million, we had a cash burn or cash out the door for the Sequence acquisition and cash out the door for all the restructuring work that we did and still maintained a really healthy cash level. So from a liquidity perspective, healthy cash levels continuing to generate healthy cash levels and undrawn revolver, feel good about that. From a future perspective, capital structure and leverage perspective, we are looking at it. We've got a credit agreement that is a comfortable one to be in. We've got comfortable amount of time to manage through that, but I'd be looking at options to think about what we could do, and I would be doing it in a way that manages the stakeholders in the business for sure. I would share, though, that the stock price that we're at right now in the $10 and $11 range isn't one that I would be looking at making any moves in that regard. But it's got a 5-year maturity, 5-year maturity is comfortable. So yes, there's not a lot we need to do, but potentially, we would look at doing something if it made good sense for the business and all of our stakeholders.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#25

Okay. Awesome. And before you open it up for audience Q&A, what are the one or two things do you think investors most underappreciate or misunderstand about the story?

Sima Sistani

executive
#26

I love this question. So the first is the core business. I mean if the reaction to Q2 was any indication that people are undervaluing our core business. We are looking at your-over-year sign-up growth. We are looking at quarter-over-quarter sub growth. We are looking at activation growth, engagement growth, NPS is 22 points higher than it was. And yet, if you look at some of the parts valuation is not baked into our stock price. So I think, some people are missing that the core business is going to move alongside of the excitement around clinical. That's going to give us leverage as we continue to go out to market, particularly with employers and payers. I mean the B2B side of our business, we have over 500 clients. We've got the infrastructure in place to meet those needs. They want alongside clinical intervention, behavior change program that is going to maximize the ROI on the cost of these medications. The second part is this, I keep hearing commodity. Anybody who's saying that has not been on a weight loss journey. The amount of the high support and attention that one needs. This is not an ED script. It is not the same thing. You don't get it, walk away. It's not the same thing. And the peer-to-peer accountability you need, the ongoing help around healthy habits, I can say this from experience, I lost 60 pounds on Weight Watchers, and I think that people are getting that wrong and they should talk to, I invite them to talk to people who are on a weight loss journey to really understand why our high support subscription is needed in these cases. The core and commodity, those are the things that I think investors not you guys, of course, are getting wrong.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#27

Okay. Great. And do we have any questions from the audience?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#28

[indiscernible] what that looks like compared to...

Sima Sistani

executive
#29

Sure. So we have, as I mentioned, over 500 clients, including this great state of New York. And an interesting part of the way, what we've been hearing from our existing employers and from so many new employer inquiries is that they don't want the Sequence business alone. They are looking for pathways. It's important for us to be able to scope their employee population and be a center of excellence to really be able to recommend, where does that make sense? Who might be the right candidate, i.e., clinical obesity and this is somebody where the medications makes sense. Where does it make sense for somebody to actually de-escalate from the medications? And perhaps get them to a settling point where then behavior change alone can work or by moving them to a different class of medication less expensive. And then the third, being able to provide a behavior change solution. So we're really bullish and excited about that opportunity and figuring that out along with our existing employers as well as the new ones coming to us who are seeking out a covered benefit for their population. And the other part of this, there was something that you had mentioned in there that I really wanted to address from a B2B standpoint, it will come back to me -- right, certainly, yes, I know what it was. We don't have any of that upside modeled into anything any of the guidance we've been giving.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#30

Okay. Great. And we've got about two minutes left. Any other questions from the audience. We've got one back there.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#31

Curious, do you have any long-term studies ongoing comparing medical with Sequence versus medical over patient choice or background choice? Just to try and understand or I guess, established over time, the importance of all the Sequence when it comes to compliance, lifestyle changes, mostly outcome? And is this something you're looking to partner with on the medical side of some of the responses to manufacturers because I guess it's an all over interest to improve the patient experience and obviously the outcomes.

Sima Sistani

executive
#32

So Weight Watchers has, is an evidence backed program. We have done over 150 peer-reviewed study, 35 clinical trials. And yes, we're actively doing clinical trials at the moment, partnered with the Cleveland Clinic. We have several different types of trials that we're doing, some that are mapping the journey with our program versus not. Some that are mapping our program with different versions of the medication versus not, some that are mapping de-escalation and behavior chains. So there -- the science is evolving, and we're going to be at the forefront of helping to provide a lot of information given the, we've got one of the biggest data sets that's out there.

Nathaniel Feather

analyst
#33

Awesome. And we'll wrap it there. Thank you so much, Sima and Heather for joining us. Hope you have a good one.

Heather Stark

executive
#34

Thank you.

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