XPLR Infrastructure, LP (NEE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

June 14, 2022

New York Stock Exchange US Utilities investor_day 240 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Jessica Geoffroy

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My name is Jessica Geoffroy, Director of Investor Relations, and I would like to walk you to the 2022 NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners Investor Conference. Before we begin, I'll remind you that today's presentations contain forward-looking statements and references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors as well as the non-GAAP reconciliations in the appendix of today's materials and our recent SEC filings. On Page 3, you'll find the agenda for today's conference. After John's remarks and Eric's discussion of FPL, we will take a short 15-minute break. Following the break and the remainder of the presentations, our entire executive team will be available to answer your questions. With that, I would like to welcome our President and CEO, John Ketchum.

John Ketchum

executive
#2

Well, thanks, Jessica, and welcome, everyone. Boy, it is great to finally be able to see everybody together in the same room. Well, I think as most of you know, I've been at NextEra for about 2 decades, and I've never been more optimistic and confident about the future than I am today. We're a company that's always led from the front, and that's never been more true than it is now. And it was true 20 years ago when I first joined the company. I'll never forget one of the first transactions that I worked on when I walked through the doors was, we had an obligation with General Electric to buy, I can't remember the exact number, but I think it might have been 30 gas turbines or 40 gas turbines. This was back in 2001, 2002 timeframe. But we knew that the future was not in gas, we knew the future was in renewables. And so one of the first transactions I had the pleasure to work on was converting that obligation to buy 30 to 40 gas turbines over to -- obligation to buy a wind turbine purchase agreement. And that's what really got us started in a big way in the renewables business because we saw something that really nobody else did that the future of our industry would be in renewables. And I think that's never more true than it is now. Our next move was from solar thermal to solar PV. We did it well ahead of others. We had FPL constantly making new investments, one of the first around smart meter technology, one of the first around smart grid technology, one of the first, I think, the first, to build a solar facility. And both businesses have moved from those early starts around renewables into battery storage and then green hydrogen. We're always asking ourselves to think 3 moves ahead. I always ask you, what's the next big opportunity? What's the next big disruptor, and how can we lead? Not afraid to think big and make bold decisions. It's in our DNA, and today, we're announcing another big decision and setting another big goal. Our vision is clear. NextEra Energy plans to lead the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. First, we plan to decarbonize ourselves. You'll hear a little bit more about that today. Second, we plan to help decarbonize the rest of the U.S. power sector. Third, we're going to take those learnings, and we plan to lead the decarbonizations of sectors outside the power business, and we set the business up well for success there. And fourth, we plan to help build the transmission backbone to support more renewables that are coming in a big way in our future, and our future is low-cost renewables and transmission. That's how you should think about the business going forward, both of which are great for customers, which I'll spend a lot of time talking about today, and both of which are good for all of you in the room as shareholders with regulated and long-term growth driving the company going forward. Today, we will explain what this vision means for both NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners. Today, I'm going to spend most of my time talking about why us to deliver on this new vision. What's in it for you as customers or as shareholders of NextEra Energy and unitholders of NEP. It's a great story, something I think you're going to want to hear is, we have a really big role to play in the future. I'll cover our playbook or our platform and our long-term and near-term visions for the business and what's good for NextEra Energy is terrific for NEP with unparalleled growth visibility as we move forward. And I'll end on our outlook for both NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners. I'm sure a lot of you have read ahead. We're increasing our adjusted earnings expectations at NextEra Energy today. We're increasing our 2022 run rate expectations for NEP today. We're extending our distribution growth at NEP by a year to line up with NextEra today, and we're flattening IDRs today, but more on that later. Again, I've never been more optimistic about our future. That's because our business begins with 2 outstanding world-class franchises. FPL, the best utility in the country, I believe, roughly 70% of the business on any metric that you use. Energy Resources, the world's leader in renewables. Each of those businesses pushes the other to be better every single day and both operate off a common platform that you can see on the left-hand side. Most of you are familiar with it. It's a platform that's been built over 2 decades, can't be replicated and is second to none. Scale, supply chain, operations, renewables, transmission, innovation, they are all at the core. Nobody is better positioned to us because we have the best playbook, the best skills, the best talent, a culture with a never settle, never lose, always get better mindset. In short, we are a business positioned to succeed under any market conditions, which is great for customers as FPL is extremely focused on keeping bills low. And to keep bills low, it all starts on the right-hand side with O&M or our operational efficiency. You can see, we're best-in-class, really by a mile, against the rest of the industry. You'll see that more in the next slide that I show. Why is that so important? It's so important to be able to take cost out of a rate-regulated utility because that creates the opportunity to make more smart capital investments like investments in solar, which are really important in this high natural gas price environment because solar serves as a hedge against natural gas price volatility. And today, we have one of the largest solar portfolio, it's not one of the, we have the largest solar portfolio of any rate-regulated utility in the United States at FPL. But as good of a job we've done, we're only getting started. Even the largest only represents 4% of our entire generation mix in Florida. We have a long ways to go. And reliability. Let's not ever forget the responsibility that we have around reliability. The responsibility that we have as a company to keep the lights on every day. If Florida were a country, would have the 15th largest economy in the world. We are responsible for almost $2 billion of GDP a day just in our service territory. So every day, the lights aren't on that's $2 billion of GDP we're costing Floridians in the economy. Reliability is extremely important. And -- it's even more important when you think about all the growth that's coming to Florida. Florida is growing faster than just about any other state in the country. We're adding more and more Floridians every day from 2019 through 2025. We plan to add about 0.5 million new customer accounts. Think about that. That's basically adding a Gulf Power organically just through natural population growth in Florida, which creates significant opportunities for us going forward. And it's not just about Florida, Energy Resources has grown a lot as well over the last 20 years. Take a look at this on the left. As you know, a world leader in renewables, we were a business that was really small back in 2002, the 20 years ago, when I joined the company. I will never forget the first year I joined. Energy Resources made, I think, $100 billion in adjusted earnings that year. Last year, we did $2.2 billion in adjusted earnings, and it's come through long-term contracted growth in renewables, #1 in wind, #1 in solar, #1 in storage and it's all the other things that we do well as well. Data analytics is one of those things. We don't talk enough about it, but we have an incredible data advantage because we have operations in almost every state in the U.S. We have billions of pieces of data that are coming into our company every single day. And guess what, we have the people, the talent, the capability to be able to analyze it. We bought a company called NextEra Energy Analytics back in 2005, 2006. Group of big data scientists, data engineers, software engineers, all they do is take our data, design systems, technology, software products that make us better and better. And we combine that capability with the market knowledge that we've amassed over 2 to 3 decades doing business in every market in this country. Those are really important skills to be able to bring to bear to be successful in renewables. And both of our main businesses have delivered on the expectations that we laid out for you 3 years ago, back in 2019. I call this our 3-year report card. So let's start with NextEra Energy. We said we'd grow at 6% to 8%. We grew adjusted earnings at better than 10%. So we grow the dividend 12% to 14% grew it at a little better than 12%. We've really delivered on the expectations that we gave you. And execution -- quarter-by-quarter execution so important in this business. At Florida Power & Light, we really delivered on our customer value proposition. Low bills, best-in-class O&M, solar build-out that's been significant, reliability, outstanding customer service. You can see that best-in-class O&M translated into a lot of smart capital investments, growing rate related capital employed by better than 11%. And then Energy Resources, we really doubled down on a renewable origination. Look at this, we had a record 3-year period on a renewable origination. Over 22 gigawatts of new renewables that we're able to originate over that 3-year period. Let me put that in perspective for you. In the first 23 years of NextEra Energy Resources, which we used to call FPL Energy way back then. First 23 years, we originated 10,000 megawatts. We just did 22,000 in 3 years. So what we're doing, it's working, and we're able to have that kind of success on the new origination activity on renewables. That really drives growth. You can see 13% adjusted EPS CAGR at Energy Resources. We've really delivered on our expectations, not just since 2019. This is what I'd like to call our 15-year report card. You can see earnings growth are right around 8.5%, dividends at right around 10%. When you grow and you execute that results and success for the shareholder, you can see the TSR outpacing the market by a very, very wide margin. And the point that I want to make out is, we did this not by swinging for the fences, we did this by setting real goals that we thought were achievable, and we did it through quarter after quarter execution, delivering on our commitments. And we've done that through good times and through bad. We did it through a global financial crisis. We did it through a worldwide pandemic. We've done it through Democratic administrations. We've done it through Republican administrations. We've done it under a lots of different competing policies at the Federal and the State level. We've always found a way to deliver on our expectations, not only for customers, but for shareholders. And headwinds or tailwinds, we know how to grow a company in any environment. All companies are not created equal, right? This shows kind of what we've been able to do in terms of growing earnings, but what the other top 10 peers have done as well. You can see, on average, the other top 10 folks we compete against, our peers in the utility industry over the last 15 years, they've said 5% to 7% or 6% to 8%, but they've delivered adjusted EPS growth at less than 3%. Energy Resources said, we grow at 5% to 7%, 6% to 8%, and we've done it, growing at roughly 8.5%. And we've executed and grown and so has our market cap. We started as what was really a small rate-regulated utility when I first joined the company. I mean you can see the market cap right there, that's $10 billion, but then we did all the things that I'm going to talk about next, really focusing on getting better, driving cost out of the organization, capitalizing on opportunities that we saw others didn't envision that became a reality to grow the company into what it is today right around $150 billion market cap. So let's talk more about what it is at NextEra Energy that makes us successful. What's in our playbook that will enable us to win in any environment for the decades ahead. For me, it starts with our team, and I couldn't be more confident in Eric, Rebecca, Mark and Kirk, all of whom you will hear from today. And I also couldn't be more confident in our 15,000 employees back at home. We're some of the smartest, most innovative people in the energy industry and to execute our playbook every single day. Our playbook is also about being low cost, while growing the top line, right? To really have a great business, you got to be great at both. You got to be great at finding growth opportunities to grow the topline. You got to be great at, while you grow, identifying opportunities to be -- to drive productivity. That's how you become profitable. That's how you create shareholder value over time. For us, it comes down to growth, execution and innovation. If you get those right, the top happens, productivity and profitability will occur. And that's really, really important in today's rapidly changing environment. The renewable industry customer of tomorrow has much more complex needs and demands than the renewable energy customer of today. And by doing those things, we really position ourselves to be able to deliver on behalf of customers and on behalf of shareholders to drive value. So let me call out a few of the things that I think we do really well, starting with operational excellence. This is a slide on FPL, how have we done on O&M. Back to 1991, we weren't all that great back in 1991. You could see we were actually a below-average utility. We were 4% worse than average, and we really focused and doubled down on ways to take cost out. You can see where we are today. We operate Florida Power & Light at 1/3 of the cost of an average utility in the United States. That is terrific for customers. We save our customers $2 billion a year just being able to take costs out of the business. And our focus on cost, it's not just top down, it's bottom up because we listen to our people. We talked to you a lot about this before. We've been doing this for roughly 10 years, 10, 11 years. We started with Project Momentum, then it was Accelerate, then it was Velocity. Names may change, but the goal remains the same, and the goal is to pull cost out of the business. And we do it differently than anybody else in the industry because we listen to our people. We go to our team who's the best in the industry, and we asked them for the ideas. We say, look, we have trust, we have confidence in you. You do the job every day. You know where the opportunities are to pull the cost out of the business. You know the opportunities to grow the topline. Come to us with those opportunities, present them to the senior team. And I'm proud to say, after 10, 11 years of doing these exercises every year, which roll up into our financial planning process, we just had our best year ever. We took over $400 million out of the business, and guess what, we're only getting started. One of the most frequent questions I would always get asked as CFO is, well, John, you guys do a great job on cost, but you got to be running out of ideas. It can't be more. Absolutely, there are more. As we grow, there are incredible opportunities to become more efficient. We haven't even really started to leverage innovation as a way to take cost out. We can always get better. We are just getting started and to have our best year after 10 years of doing it, I don't think there's any better example of a team that's focused on taking cost out of the business and having success at it than NextEra Energy. And our ability to do things better and cheaper is one of our core competitive advantages, particularly in renewables. You guys have seen this slide before many of you, but to really win in renewables, which is -- remember, we're selling a commodity. Our electrons know better than the next guy's electron. It's got to be cheaper. You win by being cheaper. Scale matters a lot in this business, and guess what, we have a 2- to 3-decade head start. Overall, the Johnny come lately that are trying to get into the business. That's significant. And we're able to pull that scale together. We buy cheaper. We build cheaper. We operate cheaper. We finance cheaper, but it's even more than that in terms of what it takes to win with a renewable customer of tomorrow. It requires market knowledge, a data advantage and ability to innovate a cost of capital advantage, development expertise, a huge head start pipeline of inventory around every state in this nation that we could go build a renewable project tomorrow. Our transmission expertise. Don't underestimate, one of the reasons we got in the competitive transmission business is because it is very well strategically aligned with everything we do in renewables. We know so much more than the next developer in line, and it's our ability to develop solutions when you put that all together. You put it all together, we are really, really hard to beat. In serving the renewable customer tomorrow is going to require a comprehensive skill -- a set of skills that I think are unusual and unique to our company. And these competitive advantages help us do many things better. One of the things that helps us do better is superior execution and construction expertise that we have in the business. We have one of the most sophisticated supply chain capabilities in our industry and in the world for that matter. Long track record of delivering construction projects on time and under budget. It starts with our superior relationships and with our buying power. We've been one of the top 5 investors of capital in any sector in the United States, not only the last 5 years running, but the last 10 years running. There's only 4 companies that invest more capital in the U.S. than NextEra, Amazon, AT&T, Verizon and Google, and then NextEra. That means we're almost always our supplier's #1 or #2 customer. And we've successfully managed over 10,000 suppliers year in and year out in achieving our objectives. In the last 3 years, we put into service over 17 gigawatts of new renewables. In the last 15 years, we placed over 300 major capital projects into service. And on average, we put those into service $1.1 billion under budget, and we brought those projects online 2 weeks early. We know how to execute. Our supply chain capabilities are particularly important in managing the challenges today. So let me spend just a minute on this slide, which is really about some of the issues that we've been dealing with lately. I want to start by saying, we are really pleased that the Biden administration made the decision that it made last week to wave duties and solar panels for 2 years and to support domestic manufacturing. I couldn't be more proud of what our team accomplished. It wasn't easy getting there. We led the effort in Washington with trade associations, with labor unions, with Biden administration, with Congress and with other stakeholders. The circumvention issue is a good example of what makes our company a leader. When you buy NextEra, you are buying a company that leads from the front, has credibility with all stakeholders at the table. In many ways, we are the voice of the renewable energy industry. It's a small industry that has a few big players and a lot of small ones. If we don't speak up, nobody else will, and we can drive constructive outcomes to big policy challenges. And as I said, the President's proclamation waives duties for 24 months, here's why that timeframe is particularly important. Even before the circumvention filing, our suppliers were already moving a lot of their manufacturing capability around polysilicon and wafers outside of China. They're already positioned by the end of this 24-month waiver on duties to be making wafers outside of China. Why is that important? The Department of Commerce came out with a memo. I think it was dated May 2 -- May 3, one of those days. That memo said, Congress specifically stated that panels with wafers made outside of China are not subject to the investigation. Therefore, we don't expect to have a circumvention duty issue going forward. And we plan to support efforts to enable domestic panel manufacturing. We've done it before, right? We gave a backstop contract to one supplier to build a domestic panel manufacturing facility up in Jacksonville. We're going to be doing more of that. We are going to get behind the domestic manufacturing capabilities this country needs. But when you put all this together, what's the impact? It's timing for the most part, and it's all manageable. While we expect to do better for financial planning purposes, we're assuming average COD delays of up to 6 months on our '22 and our '23 projects, worst case. There might be 1 or 2 gigawatts of projects in our 18 gigawatt backlog. Don't forget, 18 gigawatt backlog that could be challenged due to circumvention delays and some inflationary pressures, but we're working with those customers to reach constructive outcomes on those contracts. If we can't, we're not 100% successful, we'll go ahead and just hold those projects for future development, and I feel good about our ability to get those done. We don't expect any impact to the timing of FPL's solar builds and no impact to NEP's expectations, which are being extended today. All of these impacts have been taken into account in our financial expectations that you'll see today, which we're raising. So obviously, because we're raising, we feel really good about where the portfolio stands. We think the circumvention issue will soon be behind us. Now let's turn to the rest of the playbook, starting with the strength of our balance sheet. That's really important in today's environment, right, a raising rate environment. Nobody has the breadth, depth and access to capital that we do. Financial discipline is a key foundation of our success. Our balance sheet gives us access to capital, the ability to weather temporary market disruptions like what we've seen. Those are things our competitors just can't match. I expect to see a lot of folks fall away, but don't have a strong balance sheet to fall back on, and we have access to tax equity that nobody else has. It gives us a huge cost of capital advantage when we build projects, and you just can't underestimate how important that is. And our balance sheet strength is not something that I'm ever willing to compromise. Innovation is also a huge part of our playbook. The delivery model in our industry is changing rapidly. I keep saying, the renewable customer of tomorrow has a different set of needs than the renewable customer today. The renewable customer tomorrow is coming to us and saying, help me. I'm in the power industry, I'm outside of the power industry. I know you guys have the tools to be able to put together a plan that makes sense for our business. We want to become a carbon-free 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. How do we do that? Well, if you're going to be a one-trick pony like we've competed against in the past, it's not going to work, right? If you can just build a wind farm or a solar project or solar battery, good luck to you. You got to bring a lot of skills to bear to solve that problem. What do you do when the wind stop? What do you do in the 4-hour duration battery doesn't work? What do you do when the sun is not out during the day, right? You got to be able to firm and shape products. You've got to be able to have a retail capability. You have to be able to come up with complex solutions and have the market knowledge on how to get the fix for the customer so they get what they need, which is a low-cost fix to their problems, so they keep their businesses online and moving forward. And again, we have a huge data advantage. Billions of pieces coming in every single day, and we've taken those -- that advantage, and we've put it to work. We put it to work in a way that makes us even more successful. The first thing we do is -- remember that company I talked about earlier, NextEra Energy Analytics. What do they do when we first bought them? Wind resource analytics. They added a capability to do solar resource analytics, then optimize batteries, then they started doing many, many more things to us because they have the talent and capability. One of the things they do is renewable site optimization. All this data allows us to every state where we potentially want to do business, pick out the best date with the best solar resource, the best wind resource, the best interconnection position because we know transmission better than anybody else. We heat map the entire customer. We turn that over to our land team, they go lock up what we believe to be the best sites. Battery storage optimization. That is a very complex algorithm that requires a lot of market knowledge to be able to structure. Don't underestimate what that takes to be successful. That's why we have a 35% market share in battery storage because we have the ability to come up with solutions nobody else can because we have the know-how to do it. We've developed marketing tools for both our C&I customers and our power customers. One of the things we've done for C&I, we call it the NextEra 360 platform. Remember, our C&I customers outside of power, they're all operating in a different business. They want a partner that can come in and take the headache off the table, and hopefully, at the same time, do it at lower cost than they're doing today and make them renewable at the same time. What a home run if you're a CFO and you can walk in the office and say, hey, you know what, just satisfied our ESG goals and guess what? Reduced our power bill at the same time, and I made us green a lot quicker than I ever thought we could. This tool allows us to do that. We've been doing -- using that same tool with rate-regulated utilities for years. We go into a rate-regulated utility, we're not going in there to take them out to lunch or whatever, we're in there to have a very sophisticated conversation. We have the ability through a program we've developed called Integrated Resource Plan in a box, where we go in, we've only broken down their Ten-Year Site Plan. We've done all the math. We've done all the analytics. We hand them a piece of paper that says, hey, we know what you told your commission in your Ten-Year Site Plan, but we think you got it wrong. This is what we would do if we were you and if you do it now, you're going to take 10% to 20% out of your bill, and you're going to be able to do it by pivoting into renewables. How does that sound? Almost always leads to either a new contract or a new RFP. We're taking that same capabilities over to C&I. We do the same thing with machine learning, artificial intelligence, doubling down on innovation to take cost out of the business. We use drone technology to fly. We use photo recognition to identify. Problems are in transmission line. Predictive maintenance, avoid truck rolls, take cost down in a way nobody else can. We use it on blade inspections, so we don't have to bring a crane out and have guys climb up the tower. It's a waste of money. Use a drone to do it. I can do predictive maintenance. We can identify blade defects quickly. We're leveraging technology in a way nobody else sees, and data is a huge advantage for us because it's been analyzed by the best team in the industry. And talent development is a huge point of focus for us. Diversity is a huge point of focus for us. When we pull it all together, we have a culture that's focused on our people, our customers, our shareholders, on setting big goals, never settling, having a will to win, getting better every single day, having accountability in absolutely everything we do, a culture of continuous improvement that is embedded in this company for over 30 years. And there's no better example of the power of our playbook at work than Gulf Power. Look at this, the results speak for themselves. What we were able to do on O&M since '18. Regulatory capital employed, being able to take those cost savings and move them into ways to make smarter investments around solar, particularly in a rising natural gas price environment, service reliability as well, really helping to go in and harden the system and do the things that are made so successful in South Florida. And you can see the results of that. Let me take this opportunity to say just a brief word about corporate M&A and my philosophy around it. We have outstanding organic growth prospects. The corporate M&A is not a major focus for me today, but I will say that our performance at Gulf Power makes me believe that our playbook could provide a lot of value in the future for customers and many utilities in the U.S. But we've got the industry's best playbook, and now we're going to leverage it and delivering on the industry's biggest goal. Our goal is to lead the energy transition. By leading the decarbonization of the U.S. economy, the energy transition is happening, and it starts with the demand drivers you see on this page. Spend most of the time on economics, it's being talked about. High power prices, high oil and natural gas prices. Are now high natural gas prices going away, I don't know, we're going to be exporting a lot of LNG to Western Europe. Pipelines are really, really tough to build as we found out, and coal to gas switching isn't around anymore, right? Railcars have been repurposed. Mining activity is low. Coal stack supplies at coal plants are at record lows. So guess what? We used to switch to coal with gas prices roar during scarcity events in the winter or the summer. Not anymore, right? What's the next cap for gas? Oil. 15 in MMBtu, 20 MMBtu. Gas prices don't have a ceiling in this country. That's great for renewables. We sell a deflationary product that's countercyclical to the rest of the economy, and I'm going to talk a little bit more about that. Obvious drivers around sustainability, obvious drivers around regulatory. I'm not going to talk a whole lot about that, but the underlying philosophy of our company and what I always tell the team is, when you're going in and you're having a conversation with a customer, you have to win the conversation on the 2 greens: the first green, always starts with an economics discussion. Can you save your customer money on their electric bill? Almost always we can. If you can get past the first green question, you can have the second green question and that means providing electricity carbon-free from renewables. We've been really successful at doing it. Now let me spend a minute on the economic drivers of renewables. These next few slides are really important. So I'm going to take a minute on them. The top left-hand side, you can see -- you guys have seen this from us before, but renewables are cheap. That isn't going to change. So let me explain what this top left chart is. This is pricing that we expect later this decade. I don't know, '28, '29, somewhere around there. But this chart was based on current tax law, right? We're not -- so this chart is prepared assuming that we don't get reconciliation so that the wind PTC goes away, we have a 10% solar ITC for solar and then storage if it's enabled by solar. That's what underlies us. And we've assumed for gas, $4 to $5 gas, right? The 10-year -- the 5-year strip right now is at $5.65, $5.70, floats around very volatile. But even if we took a buck out of that, you won't believe me and you thought, hey, wow, $4 to $5 gas, that sounds high. Take a $1 off it, make it $3. No, it takes $7 a megawatt hour off the table. Renewables are here to stay. They are the cheapest, lowest cost form of generation in the United States. The best way to take a bite out of inflation and have a countercyclical product is to double down on renewables, and we think that means a lot more renewables by 2035. We'll get lower and high chart. We're just getting started on renewables in this country. 13% of the U.S. generation mix we expect because of these economic drivers, we had about 59% by the time we get to 2035. We think that is very doable because economics will win out every single day. No company has a more comprehensive skill set, too, to deliver on this. So it's one thing to have the economics, you got to have the skills to be able to deliver it. We're all chasing a 160 gigawatt opportunity by 2025, and to do it, again, you can't be a one-trick pony. You got to be great at all the things we talked about, but I'm not going to go through all the blue circles, but you've got to have a transmission expertise. You got to understand hydrogen. You got to understand mobility. You got to understand the difference between behind the meter, in front of the meter. We're in both businesses. We do DG. We do in front of the meter utility scale. We got to have market knowledge, retail, fermented shaping capability. You've got to be able to put all those things together to be successful with a renewable energy customer tomorrow, very few companies are. They're not ready for it. They're not positioned for it. This slide too is really important. This is the story that really is not being told. Told a little bit, but not -- certainly not talked about enough. I keep hearing about inflation. What's inflation doing to your business? What's inflation doing to wind? What's inflation doing to solar? It's having an impact. A small impact, right? Wind's up 11%. Solar is up 16%. The real question everybody should be asking is, what's it doing to your competition? Our competition is a new build gas-fired unit, an existing gas-fired unit. And with gas prices that have tripled, my gosh, renewables are super cheap. Look at that. New natural gas up 39%. Existing, up 63%. Remember, it's not just gas, to build a new gas-fired turbines, a lot of steel goes into a new gas-fired turbine, labor, shipping, hot gas path inspections, majors. We run them. We know how expensive they are. They're not cheap. And then what are the cost of renewables, this will really surprise you. A year ago, solar was a 38% off sale against new build gas-fired generation. Wind was a 41% off sale. Today, solar is a 48% off sale. Wind's a 53% off sale. So yes, inflation has had some impacts on wind and solar, but not nearly the way it's impacted our competition. We have a lot of headroom to originate a deflationary product that's countercyclical, that can make a big impact on our country, our economy. Right now, it's a choice customers should be willing to make, especially if they're looking at power prices and the cost of offsets. Left-hand side is what's happened to power prices in Texas, right? Front end of the curve is up 140%. Back end of the curve is up 43%. Look at the rest, right-hand side. So if I make a conscious decision, I have a Net Zero requirement, and I have a company, I made a Net Zero requirement. So I'm buying power off the grid. I'm now buying past 140% more expensive, and I'm competing in a rec market where rec prices have gone up, right? Why a rec price has gone up? Supply and demand. We -- in Texas, I can't even keep sites around long enough. They get staffed up like that. You know why? Because supply and demand. There aren't enough recs to go around for the folks that have made Net Zero requirements. And so if you're selling a renewable product, we're coming in and we're saying, they don't pay 139% in higher power prices. We'll sell you a renewables wind somewhere in the 20s, solar somewhere in the 30s. We'll take a huge bite out of the electric and guess what, you get the rec for free. So you avoid both these problems. That's a powerful weapon when you're trying to sell new renewables, and we see multiple drivers for renewable energy. So what does our strategy look like next? It's 3 parts. First, we're going to decarbonize ourselves in Florida. We've been talking a lot about that today. Eric is going to talk. We're going to lead by example in doing that. Second, we're going to help decarbonize the U.S. electric sector. We're going to replicate the success that we've had over the last 2 decades doing what we do every single day, doing what we plan to do in Florida as well. And then we're going to take those learnings, so we're going to help lead the decarbonization at the rest of the sectors outside of power, and we're going to do it by building more transmission and growing the nation's #1 competitive transmission business. So let's talk a little bit about transmission. Look at this. We are right now pursuing a pipeline of opportunities over $40 billion in transmission. We are in every RTO in the United States. As I said before, don't underestimate how important this is strategically to aligning transmission up with renewables and be able to identify fixes, right, that nobody else can. Solutions that nobody else can. Finding the best parts in the country to interconnect our new renewables, that's why we bought GridLiance. That's why we bought Trans Bay. That's why we continue to grow that business. And so for starters, how do we lead by example and decarbonize ourselves? So let's start there with the first piece of this. It starts today with the announcement of our industry-leading goal, Real Zero. Real Zero is simple. Real Zero means zero carbon emissions with no offsets in Florida, zero carbon emissions, zero offsets in Florida, zero incremental cost to customers relative to alternatives. We have a plan. We didn't just cross our fingers and hope it happens when we woke up. We spent a lot of time thinking about it. We came up with really defined milestones. You can go on our website, I encourage you all to do. We have a blueprint. We call it the Real Zero blueprint. It defines exactly what we're going to do. And at FPL, that means helping take a big bite out of the bill and help them become carbon-free over time. And at Energy Resources, that means being able to take and leave. For example, imagine, we come out with a Real Zero goal today, what are our peers going to do tomorrow? Creates a lot of opportunities for Rebecca's business. What are C&I customers going to do tomorrow? We're going to see this Real Zero go and they say, well, wow, maybe we could do better. There's a lot more renewables in the power sector and outside the power sector and help drive this awareness and support for a Real Zero goal. We put together the following video. [Presentation]

John Ketchum

executive
#3

Powerful. Our Real Zero goal is new, but we've led for decades. This really is what I call the why us slide. Why us to lead this? Well, because we've been doing it. We've been doing it for 2 decades. We've got a huge head start. You can see where we are right now. We're 51% better on emissions rate reductions than the rest of the industry. The rest of the industry after 15 years is just catching up right to where we are. But this isn't a competition, it's an opportunity. We want to be able to go help our peers to become fully decarbonized over time to do the things that we've been doing, investing in wind, investing in solar, investing in nuclear. These additions have completely transformed our fuel mix over time. You can see where we were back in '88, right? Heavily dependent on oil. By '01, we took a little bit of a bite out of oil, not a big one. We started to get a little bit into renewables, but by 2021, look at this, we're a clean energy company. 44% renewables, the other part, natural gas, that's where the opportunity lies. But don't be mistaken, natural gas is an important bridge. I'm going to talk a little bit about that. It's important bridge to get to where we want to be by 2045. And when we get to where we want to be by 2045, we will be running all of our gas turbines at FPL off the hydrogen. There will be no stranded costs associated with the plan that we have right now. And FPL has transformed its generation in the past. So what does a Real Zero goal mean for the future? A ton of opportunity for FPL and its customers. 92 gigawatts of new solar capacity, 50 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity, 16 gigawatts of new hydrogen that's taking the investments that we made in new gas-fired technology and by mid- to late 2045 when the technology is there and the costs have come down, moving it over to hydrogen, right? So natural gas serves as a bridge fuel until we get there. And then we'll continue to leverage our nuclear expertise as well. And then we'll have, what I call, peaking capacity, roughly 6 gigawatts of gas-fired turbines that will run off on renewable natural gas, which is a spot we've also been making investments in, we have a significant understanding about RNG or renewable natural gas works. But as we decarbonize FPL, we will further improve our customer value proposition. It all starts with this. These 4 cornerstones are at the center of what we're trying to accomplish. First, it's kind of makes sense for customers. We got to be able to do this at no incremental cost to customers relative to alternatives. We think we can. We put together a plan that we think gets us there. That's got to be reliable, right? Solar, batteries, the ability to run natural gas-fired units off of hydrogen or off of RNG to a smaller extent, being able to leverage the existing nuclear that we have in Florida, innovation, the technology keeps getting better. Don't ever bet against the engineer. Costs keep coming down. They're going to continue to come down. We're going to find better ways to do it. Look at all the money going into the electric vehicle industry. We're not slowing down, it's here. And then a constructive regulatory environment. We need to align ourselves with the right federal and state policies and incentives to support what it is we're trying to accomplish here. And our Real Zero goal includes several interim milestones. You can see here. We're already at 70%, right, when you put the companies together. We expect to be 70% by 2025. We'll get the Real Zero by 2045. You can see the progression there. The bottom is where the rest of the industry is, and that's not to be critical to the rest of the industry. That's to show the opportunity we have at Energy Resources, which, as I said, is significant. And our Real Zero goal opens up vast new opportunities for capital investment. This is a big energy resources opportunity. Look at the left-hand side here, right? As I said earlier, only 4% of the mix in Florida is solar renewables. 13% of the mix on average renewables across the U.S. That's why the number is so tiny right here, right? 2021 U.S. capacity, 210 gigawatts. If we just focus on the middle bar, that's the power sector. That's over 3,550 gigawatts of new opportunity, $2 trillion of new investment to decarbonize the power sector to replicate what we've done for years and working with investor-owned utilities, co-ops, municipalities. We would expect to have a big market share in there. Rebecca will talk more about that. And then if we can take what has made us successful in Florida and outside of Florida and replicate that with customers outside the power sector, you double the opportunity. It's another $2 trillion. We've repositioned the business to be able to serve those customers. Rebecca will spend a lot of time talking about that today. And we believe this opportunity will drive long-term growth at both FPL and Energy Resources. You can see the FPL side, right? We talked about it, 160 gigawatt opportunity. We got to continue to focus on reliability, undergrounding, resiliency, hardening the grid, and it's all being done at a time where we're having massive population growth, which creates significant opportunities to lower the bill and capitalize on the fact that we're in one of the quickest growing states in the country. And on the Energy Resources, stack them up. Power -- outside the power sector, the transmission opportunity. I talked about the numbers. These are the long opportunity -- long-term opportunities we have for the business, but what do our growth opportunities look like through 2025? We believe they are significant. We believe they are visible. In this next section, I'm going to share our growth expectations through 2025. Under current market conditions, under current tax policy in every jurisdiction in which we operate. And our near-term strategy begins with a vision, right? You've seen this before. It's consistent with what we've been doing. Our goal is to be the largest, most profitable clean energy provider in the United States, leveraging the best skills and capabilities in the industry. We're going to double down on FPL, on low bills, high reliability, customer service, continuing to deliver the best value proposition we believe of any rate-regulated utility in the United States. We're going to double down on what's made us successful at Energy Resources, more wind, more solar, more storage, more transmission. We plan to achieve our vision by leveraging our platform. A lot of gold bars here. I'm not going to go through them, seen some of these before. Some new ones on the list. Regulated water being one. Everything up from regulated water are basically things that we've added to be able to go decarbonize and build a lot more renewables for the folks outside of the power sector. But the reason I show you this slide is that these are all the visible growth opportunities that we have. This platform is 2 decades in the making. Good luck to you if you're just trying to get into this industry and compete. Two decades in the making, creating this platform. A lot of visible growth opportunities. You combine this with our core strengths, operational excellence, financial strength, the scale, the skill, the scope, long-term competitive advantage is what it creates, makes us really hard to beat. And here are a few examples of the business that we've been able to build through our toe in the water strategy. We took wind from nothing, solar from nothing. Transmission was by scratch business that we just started investing in back in 2011. Storage, FPL Energy Services, some of the things that we do in the home. DG solar, selling the C&I, all terrific stories of being able to put a little bit behind them, see if they can turn into big businesses and see what the outcome of that is. And guess what? We've been able to do that pretty successfully as a company. Back in 2000, we had one business that generated over $100 million of net income and that was FPL. By 2021, we had 7. By 2025, we expect to have 12. A lot of visible growth opportunities for the business, a lot of levers that we have at our disposal. And our capital investment opportunities continue to grow as well. We have $85 billion to $95 billion of CapEx opportunities that we expect to deploy through 2022 and 2025. Here they are. I'm not going to go through all the circles. Blue circles are Eric's. Eric can cover them in his deck. Green circles are Rebecca's. She can cover them in her deck. But when you think about putting in perspective, $85 billion to $95 billion of organic growth opportunities, that would make NextEra just with its CapEx plan the fifth largest rate-regulated utility in the United States in terms of total assets just with the CapEx plan that we have through 2025. And here's our focus at FPL. No surprises here. Low bills, taking cost out, creating the opportunities for smart capital investments, doubling down on reliability. And then energy resources, the story is the same. A lot of renewables. Wind, solar, battery storage, continuing to invest in the backbone around transmission, 12% growth in adjusted earnings. And as we see, NextEra Energy, we also -- the growth at NextEra Energy, we also see significant growth opportunities at NextEra Energy Partners. Like I said before, we believe it has never been more true than it is today that what is good for NextEra Energy is terrific for any piece. Let me take a few minutes to talk about NEP. We laid out some objectives 3 years ago, and like NextEra Energy, we really delivered on those objectives. We delivered on our financial expectations, our growth expectations, maintain significant financial flexibility. NEP has come a long way since our IPO back in 2014. And if you look at the story, right, no surprise, we've gotten there through a lot of renewable investments. We've been able to grow the distribution at 290%, and due to our track record of execution, we've also been able to deliver terrific unitholder return. You can see the results here, doubling up really the market and the yield curve average. And NEP is also now a pretty big renewable company, and it's on its own. So look at this, NextEra Energy Partners today, including NextEra Energy, there are only 10 other companies in the world that have a larger renewable portfolio than NextEra Energy Partners. NEP can continue to grow because it's also got a terrific playbook. That playbook obviously has no surprise, a lot in common with the NextEra Energy playbook. Terrific growth visibility, financial discipline, flexibility, operational excellence, being a low-cost operator, being able to leverage the talent, the market knowledge, the innovation, the know-how that we have at NextEra Energy. And driven by its playbook, NEP has outstanding growth prospects. We've said it before, NEP grow in 3 ways. We've evidenced that over the past, not only acquisitions from Energy Resources, but organic growth opportunities in wind and in solar and in batteries. A lot of opportunities there to continue to grow the portfolio as we go forward. And third-party acquisitions. I'm proud to say we've completed our first 2 renewable acquisitions last year. We look to do more. And the organic growth opportunities that are coming. Through 2035, 1,400 gigawatts of opportunities. That is terrific growth visibility for NEP. You can see the CAGR there at 15%. I'm excited to say that, today, we're announcing a structural modification, as I said earlier, for NEP as well around IDRs, and it's pretty simple. We're going to cap them out at $157 million. That means $305 a unit. And for this, the way I view it is, there's really no IDRs on any future asset drops that ended up in NEP. We're locking it down from this point forward. We expect the modification to create significant value for both companies, similar to what we were able to accomplish back in 2017 for NEP provides a lower cost of capital, lower asset and equity needs going forward and more cash for LP unitholders. And for me, it increases the value of the ownership potentially in NextEra Energy Partners. And it extends the expectations for DPU growth, helping us extend the runway going forward. We believe that NEP and NEE will continue to complement each other. First, from NEE, on what it offers NextEra Energy Partners outstanding growth visibility, an experienced management team, a best-in-class operational experience. And NEP offers NEE capital recycling and really a very tax-efficient way. Mark will spend time talking about that as well as the ability to highlight the value of contracted renewables, together with attractive ongoing cash flow growth over time. And we are very excited about the future of NEP. So along those lines, let's now turn to our updated financial expectations. Let me start with our financial expectations for NextEra Energy Partners. So on the left-hand side, we're extending our best-in-class distribution growth expectations by an additional year through 2025, which now lines up with NextEra Energy, and we're raising our year-end 2022 run rate adjusted EBITDA and CAFD expectations by $10 million. And just to be clear, Mark will cover it. NEP could achieve these financial expectations, if necessary, without any solar or storage projects that are currently in the energy resources backlog. There is no company in the S&P 500 that has the kind of visibility and distribution growth that NEP does. We also feel very good about our financial expectations at NextEra Energy. So let me take a minute to talk about this. First, we're raising our adjusted EPS ranges. We feel really good about where the business sits. We're raising them by $0.05 in '22, $0.05 in '23, $0.10 in '24, $0.10 in 2025. We get to the $0.10 in 2025 because we're going to grow at 6% to 8% off the rebate '24 number. And as always, we'd be disappointed not to be at the high end of our new revised expectation ranges. And we believe we have the drivers to get there. We have very visible growth opportunities at FPL and Energy Resources for all the reasons that I've taken you through today. Circumvention impacts that we believe are manageable at Energy Resources, and over $400 million in run rate savings that we were able to recognize taking costs out of the business, and that's just a 1 year, an exercise in 1 year, right? We do this every year. So there's significant opportunities going forward. We're just getting started. And these are just to name a few of the things that give us confidence in the expectations that we're laying out today. No one in our industry offers a kind of attractive risk-adjusted total return that we do. Our future is very bright. We see types of opportunities and some challenges as well, but with uncertainty also comes opportunity and no company thrives like we do in market disruption. We have the playbook and the platform to win in any environment. We have the team and the culture to achieve the bold vision that we are laying out today. Nobody is better positioned than NextEra to serve the clean energy customer of tomorrow. For our customers, our vision means an even better customer value proposition. For NextEra Energy shareholders and NEP unitholders, that means even more growth visibility for years to come. I couldn't be more confident in our team, our ability to execute, our growth, our financial expectations and our vision to help decarbonize the U.S. economy. Eric, over to you.

Eric Silagy

executive
#4

Thank you. Well, good morning, everybody. Gosh, John, I feel like you should just like drop the mic, and we should just take questions. It's great to see everybody in-person and frankly, to see everybody's face without masks on. It's an understatement to say, we've all been through a lot in the last 3 years with so much going on. I really appreciate you taking the time to be with us today. I'm going to go through how we've been at FPL and what's going on in the state of Florida. Needless to say, it's been a really interesting last 3 years since we've last gotten together. At FPL, we have grown significantly. In 3 years, we've added almost 700,000 new customers in the system through the acquisition of Gulf, bringing them into the FPL family and organic growth, significantly increasing the amount of generation that we've added to the fleet and the total assets that we now have at the company. Importantly, in 2019, I made a series of commitments to you on what our plans were going forward, and the team has done a great job on executing on those plans. We have continued to provide our customers with bills that are well below the national average. Despite a lot of challenges in the last 3 years, we have continued to provide customers with reliability that's not just the best in Florida by a big margin, but the best in the United States. Despite, again, a lot of challenges, given what we've all gone through in the last 3 years, we continue to focus on the business and taking costs out on our O&M, despite all of the challenges. And we continue to execute across a very, very robust capital plan, billions of dollars every year implemented and executed on time, on budget, year in and year out. And we integrated FPL -- excuse me, Gulf into the FPL family. So I already talked about them now, they're just FPL. Gulf's gone. Without any hiccups, deployed over $2 billion of capital in the Panhandle, again projects being on time and on budget, while reducing their O&M by 40% and improving reliability in the Panhandle by 60%. Those are the tremendous values for our customers. It wasn't easy, but the team really focused on the core thing that we do every single day and how we really run the business and that is providing our customers with superior value proposition. Those are low bills, high reliability, great customer service, and yes, a clean emissions profile, which, by the way, in the Panhandle, we also focused on and significantly reduced the emissions profile, a former Gulf territory. All of that, when you do it well, leads to higher customer satisfaction, which in turn leads to a much more constructive regulatory environment. It's really not complicated if your customers are relatively happy and understand what you're doing, then you get more support from your regulators and other stakeholders because you're delivering on the promise that you've made. And when that happens, you're able to get the kind of support that we've gotten from the commission to undertake projects and investments, which in turn lead to the opportunity to provide our customers, again with low bills and high reliability and kind of around the circle you go. It's not particularly complicated, but it is a challenge because you have to execute around it every single day. And it really starts with generation because ultimately, that's what we're doing. We're generating an electron and delivering it to customers so they can keep the lights on, the air conditioners going. And we've been really focused on how can we continue to improve our generation fleet, make it more productive, make it more cost effective. Yes, make it cleaner. And it has been a march that's been ongoing for decades. Look, it wasn't -- about a few years ago that we made an announcement, some called it an audacious goal of installing 30 million panels by 2030. Solar energy in Florida because it was the most cost-effective means to be able to provide generation to customers. We now have the largest solar fleet in operation in the United States. 50, 75-megawatt solar projects are currently in operation, all built on time, all within budget. Many of them constructed during a very challenging time, right, because of COVID. Really proud of how the team was able to do this, and we're ahead of schedule by years. We'll be done with our 30-by-30 plan by 2025, continuing to deliver customers a value because we're now displacing a very volatile price fuel in natural gas. It's also been, though, a march to modernize our fleet by taking other fossil generation out. We now have no more coal than all of Peninsula, Florida. We have retired every single coal plant that we have, and I'm proud to say, we actually blew them up, and we're actually building a solar site on one. So I'm waiting for the Sierra Club to put a bronze in or Jim Robo there so they can remember that there used to be a coal plant here, but seriously, this is about having a vision that John talked about being bold, being decisive and then being able to actually execute. And the value to customers is significant, both from a price perspective, but also from an emission standpoint. And look, being clean is good business. Being fuel-efficient is really good business and good for customers. What we've delivered to customers has been nothing short of tremendous for their pocketbooks by moving away from foreign oil, retiring our coal, putting in much more fuel-efficient plants, we've saved customers $12.5 billion in fuel that we simply didn't purchase because our plants are more efficient. So all of you are feeling it, although, some of you probably don't have cars who live in the city. But for those who have cars, you feel it every time you go to the gas pump. So I'll put it in terms you can understand. This is about fuel efficiency. This is not about the spread between the price of oil and gas, this is just our fuel efficiency at our plants. So think about not taking your Suburban to the gas pump and instead, your Toyota Camry. The savings that you have by going the same mileage, but for less gas is what we've saved customers. And in Florida, fuel is a pass-through, which means we don't profit from fuel and whatever we pay for it, customers pay. So if we pay $1 more, customers pay $1 more. If we save $1, they save $1. That's why this is so important. Finding ways to reduce your fuel bill is massively important to customers. $12.5 billion and counting, billion, that has stayed in customers' pockets. $12.5 billion and counting that has stayed in Florida's economy and allowed our customers to be able to focus on spending their money on things they want to do rather than paying extra for fuel. And the emissions impacts have been tremendous as well. John talked about this on a fleet-wide basis at FPL. It's been great. We continue to drive our emissions profile down at a time when -- by the way, we're growing. It's easier to actually reduce your emissions profile if you're an electric utility, that's shrinking because you can just close the plant. At FPL, we're building incremental generation and driving down our emissions profile from a base where we are already significantly lower than the national average to even further improvement. 28% below the national average, and we're nowhere near done. And it's not just carbon by the way, we've effectively eliminated our SOx. The industry averages 35x higher than where we are right now. On NOx, the industry average is 4x higher than where we are now. Our investments are paying off every single day for our customers in carbon as well as greenhouse gases. And look, Florida and a clean environment, they go hand-in-hand for being good business. Being clean is the right thing to do on a lot of levels for our customers. It's the right thing to do for the next generation. It's the right thing to do for our kids to not have to deal with this going forward, but it's also really, really good business for the state of Florida. 1 in 8 jobs is tied to tourism in Florida. Most people have to save all year long in order to take that family vacation. I don't know what the numbers will be at the end of this year, but every prediction is, we're going to be more -- have more tourists in Florida this year than we did pre-COVID. Pre-COVID, it was 127 million people visiting the state of Florida. 127 million. That makes Florida the #1 tourist destination in the world. And when you've saved all year long and take that family vacation, the last thing you want to do is penetrate a small bank flying into Orlando or go on the beach and get tar on your feet. Because if you do that, you're not coming back. Now if you've worked your whole life somewhere else, so you can actually retire somewhere beautiful and you can't breath the air, you're not going to retire there. And if that happens, Florida's economy is in trouble. I know this might have upset a few of you, but I'm going to let you know that I don't pay a state income tax, which gives me great pleasure. You can also not pay state income tax, by the way, just -- right? The reason I don't pay a state income tax is because we have 127 million tourists visit in Florida. That's why this is also a good business and important for the state of Florida. That's why the decarbonization opportunity that John has talked about is so critically important for both the economy as well as the climate and the country and the world. The opportunity is tremendous, and we have the technology to do this solar and battery storage. We know how to do this. We've demonstrated FPL. We've executed on these projects on time, on budget through very challenging times, and we're just getting started. Solar and battery storage effectively acts like a physical hedge on gas because the more we put in, the less gas we have to purchase. And right now, FPL purchases 600 billion cubic feet of gas a year to power our generation. You can do the math at today's prices. That's real money. And so by putting in more solar and storage, we can reduce that fuel component, dampen that volatility that customers are currently feeling and eventually, eliminate it. It's not a sprint. Just like how we've migrated our fleet off of foreign oil and coal, this is going to be march. But it's a march we've been on for decades. It's a march that the company knows how to do efficiently, productively, and in a way that actually helps customers manage through it so there's not severe impacts to their bills. So they see the benefits day in and day out, which makes it more politically sustainable. Again, this is not new to us. Yes, what John announced today in Real Zero that is another audacious goal, but we actually have a plan, a blueprint to get there because we've been there, and we know how to do this. I'm going to show you a little more through a video that we put together. [Presentation]

Eric Silagy

executive
#5

Look, this is not going to be falling out of bed. As Jim Robo, you still like to say, right? This is going to be a challenge, but we have a really thoughtful plan of how to do this. We've spent a lot of time really understanding what the technology that's available today and the technology that we're already working on developing for tomorrow. It's not a sprint, as I said before, it's a march, but it's a march that we have to do and that we believe we can get there. I believe nobody is more prepared and has the team in place to be able to do this. That's why we've set out this path with actually interim roles and objectives to be measured by to making sure that this is just not some goal that you put out there and let the next management team try to achieve. This is about actually setting very set objectives that you could be measured by and demonstrate the progress that's been made. So you can make sure that you're actually getting to the ultimate goal of 100%, Real Zero with no incremental cost to customers compared to what we were going to do anyway in order to meet their needs because remember, we're growing. So we have to install a new generation. We have to install a new transmission and distribution to meet the needs of customers. The question is, how do you do all this and then be able to meet the needs without incremental cost. And that means a lot of different technologies because there's not one silver bullet. Solar and storage is going to play an incredibly important part. But to get to that last 10% to 20% you have to have other technologies is dispatchable, and that's where green hydrogen comes in place. Look, splitting a water molecule and creating hydrogen is not new, electrolyzers have been around for quite some time or other forms to split the water molecule, right? Electrolyzers today use electricity that is generated by some other fossil fuel being typically burned. What we're going to do, though, is couple it with solar energy. We know how to build and operate solar. We do it every day. We know how to operate an electrolyzer. We're simply taking the technologies and put them together, and then we're going to blend it into the gas stream in an existing gas plant. And when you do that, you burn less of methane, the fossil fuel, you burn hydrogen, which has an emissions of water vapor and you blend it up to eventually 100%. The trick is getting it done where it's affordable and reliable. That's why we're building the pilot that we're building today. Again, this is upon the sky. We're already out there doing it today. Our $65 million investment in this pilot is not a small, will be operational next year. And at that point, we will start burning hydrogen in an existing gas plant. This is really important because not only does it take a new fuel source, but it also leverages existing assets that we've already paid for that customers are already relying on today. So we're not stranding assets, we're actually leveraging assets that are going to be available to us for further expansion. It's what we've done for decades, smartly deploying capital, leveraging existing technology, improving upon it, rolling in new technology as it becomes available and in the process taking costs out of the business. Look, spending money, that's not hard. I could argue, just taking cost out of the business without paying attention to any of the consequences, that's not hard either. You can just cut costs. I could just stop trimming trees tomorrow and take $70 million out of our budget as an example, but customers will suffer. Growing the business while taking costs out, that's not easy. But that's what this company has demonstrated an ability to do year in year out, decade in decade out, and that's why I'm so confident that we're going to be able to do this because we've demonstrated it. And customers have benefited from this over and over and over again, look at how our bills compare to other utilities in Florida, the national average and yes, other sectors in the economy. Look, FPL was subject to inflation and pressures like everybody else, right? Price of medical care for our employees has not gone down. Cost of trucks, cost of fuel for those trucks, we're getting less because we're electrifying our trucks, but you can see how significantly some of these sectors have impacted customers' pocket books compared to FPL. On average, since 2006, our bill is up less than 1%, significantly less just in inflation. While, by the way, we have invested tens and tens of billions of dollars into the system and not at the expense, again, of other parts of the business, reliability. At the same time, while we've been investing in technology and driving bills down, we've been improving reliability. We haven't been just cutting costs and hurting customers, we've been actually improving their experience. You can see here no matter how you want to measure it, whether it's shady, whether it's frequency, whether it's momentary, which most utilities don't even measure, right? We have significantly improved the customer experience. In a system, frankly, that's challenged a lot of times. We have more lightning strikes than anybody in the U.S. by far among the highest in the world. We have a lot of salt in the air. Thankfully, it means we're close to the beach, right? But that's a challenge. And of course, we have storms. And our investments in our resiliency, our transmission or distribution system, right, has paid off for customers in so many ways. Yes, day-to-day, in a very significant way, but particularly, when it comes down to storms, it's not a question of whether or not we're going to be subject to adverse weather, by the way, this is not just Florida, too, as all of you know who live up here, right? Adverse weather is becoming, unfortunately, more frequent, and it's paid off for customers in Florida at FPL in a very, very meaningful way. On an objective measurement, you can really, really see the difference. Hurricane Irma, when it hit us in 2017, was the largest hurricane ever to hit FPL service territory, both in size and in strength. When you look at all of it together, it was 50% bigger than Hurricane Wilma, which hit us in 2005. Wilma, along with the previous 5 storms hits us in '04, was really seminal moment for us, and we changed the way we looked at resiliency and started investing in the system. And when Irma hit, you could really see the difference. We had a storm that was 50% more powerful, and yet we were able to actually restore customers 8 days faster. We took 3 days completely out of the storm response. The things that we were able to improve upon were phenomenal. We had 2.5 million customers who are restored in 24 hours or less, which, by the way, in an economy the size of Florida makes a huge difference as well as obviously in customers' lives. It's one of the reasons, again, that we're able to get the kind of support from the commission because they see the benefits when customers need us most, and even on a day-to-day basis. And of course, look, we're a company of human beings. We do have mother nature. So we're not perfect. The lights do go out, and when it happens, we want our customers to have as much information at their fingertips as possible. So it's one of the reasons we've invested so much in customer service from a standpoint of being able to give them the information they need so they can make the decisions best for them. How do I save on my electric bill? How do I use less electric power? Where is the usage in the house? How do I communicate with the utility when I want information? I know you'll find the shocking, but not everybody wants to talk to a customer service agent. They'd rather go online and just get the information, right? Not everybody wants to mail a bill. We still have customers who like to put it in the mail, but the majority of our customers do it online now. It's better for them. It's also better for us. It makes the whole system more efficient. Again is that whole approach to the customer of making -- empowering them, doing everything we can to make them happy and frankly, making it so they don't have to think about us because the bills are low, the lights are on, and when we do touch them every month, right, it doesn't really change their world and they're able to communicate with us easily. All of that leads to a regulatory environment that gives us the kind of support to be able to make these investments. It's not by accident that our settlement agreement occurred with interveners across the spectrum that the commission approved an ROE that really reflected the kind of performance that we've delivered in the last 4 years, allowed us to maintain a strong capital structure, which allows us to have a strong balance sheet to make sure that we can continue to make these investments and attract capital at very favorable rates. And they give us permission to do things that nobody else has done, like investing in a green hydrogen pilot, which is going to lead us on this path that nobody else has been able to achieve today. It's why it's so important for the team to continue to execute every single day. Talking about all these things is relatively easy, doing it is a real challenge. And we're doing it in a state that continues to grow significantly. Florida is now a $1.2 trillion economy. John talked about this. This makes Florida actually larger than Mexico economically, twice as big as Saudi Arabia and growing at about $100 billion a year. Let me -- to put that in perspective, that is adding the economy of Mississippi every single year. We're adding about 1,000 people a day in the state. And I won't be at all surprised if we see numbers that are actually bigger than that because it sure feels like that right now. With real estate in Florida, it's crazy. Everybody seems to want to come down. I think people who came down for COVID have figured out they can work from there and not pay that state income tax and look out on the beach or go to the beach when they have a little bit of free time. We're blessed in many ways with growth, but that means you also have a duty and the responsibility to manage that growth, to plan for that growth, to meet the needs of the customers that are here today and they're coming every single day. It is a duty that we have to serve. And when I think about it in economic terms, it means that every single day, we're responsible for keeping the lights on at least $2 billion worth of GDP every day at FPL. And every metric that I've been able to find on economic growth in Florida says that we're back to pre-COVID and growing, whether it's unemployment, I already talked about GDP, whether it's consumer confidence. You look at the building permits, and importantly, I look at housing starts following the permit, well, that's one level of commitment. Actually turning dirt, that's a whole different level of commitment. And they're all way up, which means we're adding a lot of customers, which means we're having to invest every day just for backbone, we call it, transmission, distribution, making sure we can meet the customers' needs day in and day out because people are moving from all over the country, but particularly your friends and neighbors, right, from Connecticut and New Jersey and here in New York, they are coming down. And they're staying, migration patterns, this is not new, but what I am seeing is more and more consistency from the states in red coming down, bringing about not just people, but bringing down their investments and bringing down their businesses. This is not just retirees. As a matter of fact, it's much more than retirees. These are people moving their businesses coming down. We've seen expansion across Florida's business community. We have over 3,000 aerospace companies. We have 15,000 IT companies now in Florida. The financial services sector, it's floating. Just in Palm Beach County, hundreds of private equity groups, hedge funds, financial services firms, they've moved. They've moved out of this area. They moved out of Chicago, and they're permanently coming to Florida. Why? Again, a variety of reasons. Taxes, regulatory environment, business climate, the university system that's now for 6 years in a row then ranked #1 in America, a diverse economy, speaks a lot of different languages. So it's a great platform for international business as well. And of course, not a bad place to be from the standpoint if you love the outdoors and enjoy the environment. It's why we're, again, blessed with growth and why we're focused on growth. I mean, as a company, we're also a big investor in Florida. As you can see, just in the last 10 years, FPL has invested $50 billion in the state of Florida. That makes us the largest investor actually in the state. We paid over $20 billion in taxes. We do pay a lot of property taxes, right? So we've actually been one of the engines of growth for the state, and our efforts to decarbonize are only going to accelerate that. We've worked very closely with a number of different folks who particularly have been working with Mackenzie on what will be the economic impact in Florida from our decarbonization efforts. Just in Florida, we're looking at probably 180,000 jobs or $15-or-so billion a year in GDP impact just in the state of Florida. It's a tremendous opportunity for Florida to actually lead, to showcase the technology and the innovation that the state has really always had that people just typically overlooked because it was viewed as a state that you came to vacation or retire. It's an opportunity, again, to really put a marker in the ground and say, Florida is going to lead the way and FPL is going to do that. And it's why we have an economic development department and why we actually had started an innovation hub right in FPL because we're really focused on how do we continue to expand Florida in different directions. We actually created an innovation hub called 35 mules. Now some of you would say, why 35 mules? Well, it's a little bit of a tip of that to how far FPL has come in almost 100 years that we've been serving because we actually started in the state of Florida. We actually started out as a company that had an ice house, a sponge boat and 35 mules. 35 mules, that was high-tech way of delivering ICE back in the day. So we named our innovation hub 35 mules, and we just graduated. I'm proud to say our first cohort of entrepreneurs that came from around the world. We launched right before March of 2020, think of where you are, right? And yet we were still able to have entrepreneurs from around the world. Our teams come in and really, really do some exciting work, create new products and businesses, attract $15 million in outside investment. And importantly, now they are starting companies, new companies right in the state of Florida. By the way, it was pretty great for us too because we got to look at new technologies, really cutting edge and an opportunity to see some things that we're thinking that's pretty cool. We may actually deploy some of that within our own business. A really good way for the company and these entrepreneurs to work together and to keep our employees always thinking ahead, always staying sharp, never being satisfied and always being challenged, because it's important that we never kind of get comfortable because our customers continue. Again, because of growth, we're using more power where our usage is up, and we have to figure out better ways to continue to provide them with the power they need and the reliability that they demand in order to meet their needs, which is growing year in and year out. John touched on this, but I just want to reiterate it. I mean you look at the organic growth we have, we expect to add to 500,000 customers since the investor conference before to 2025. That is more than Gulf Power brought. It's adding another Gulf Power effectively every 5 years. It's a tremendous opportunity that also provides, truthfully, a lot of challenges, which is why we have to stay so religiously focused on keeping cost out and finding new ways to be even more efficient. I've shown you this slide. Every single time you've been an investor conference, it has changed. The players change, but what hasn't changed is, we are continuously being -- we are still best-in-class. Bottom right-hand corner, right? The difference that John talked about this is tremendous for customers. The delta between where we are and being average, which I could probably go to Tallahassee under oath and say, we're in the middle of a pack commissioners. We're doing fine, just $2 billion a year in O&M. It's $2 billion a year. We simply don't charge customers for O&M. And by the way, if we did that, the electron that we deliver to customers wouldn't be any shinier or brighter or faster. It'd be a same exact product. It would just be $2 billion more expensive, 20% higher on their bill on average. And if you think it's just by accident or just scale that makes a difference, well, look over to the left and see what we were able to do at Gulf in 3 years. That was Gulf's positioned before they became part of the FPL family, pretty much average. And in 3 years, we took, as you can see, 40% O&M out of the business. While don't forget, we improved reliability by 60%. It's a significant savings that allows us, again, to be able to take that and roll it back into the business and capital -- smart capital, which allows us again to find new ways to be even more efficient and more productive. And I cannot tell you how many times I get asked, well, but isn't that kind of aren't you at the end of the line for that? No, not even close. Because there are so many people in the company that are smarter than me, they come up with so many incredible ideas. It never ceases to amaze me when we go through our annual process of taking cost out of how we actually are able to identify new technologies that we never even thought about applying before or doing it differently that helps save customers money. It's truly amazing. And a lot of this, by the way, are not technology specifically invented for the electric sector, they're just taking things that were invented for other reasons and applying them in different ways, right? We didn't invent in drone at FPL. We didn't invest in gyro-stabilized high-definition camera. We didn't invent Google Maps, which we had or the iPad, which we had, but we use all those technologies in order to run the business very differently and take costs out every single day in order to be able to provide our customers a better deal, and that's what's so exciting. That's why I'm confident actually that we're going to be able to execute on this goal of Real Zero because we know how to do this stuff. It's not easy, but you can really do it. The low-hanging fruit on cost, that's gone, right? We've got those years ago, but really driving down and looking at all the different opportunities to leverage technology and data and processes and think differently, right? That is still here. And it really is all rooted in the culture that's different. It's a culture that the employees have of excellence, continuous improvement and honestly, just never being satisfied, right? Kind of like excellence comes from intensity, and there's a level of intensity that our employees have about really trying to be the best. They're just not satisfied, and that's where these savings come from. And the opportunity set is tremendous because of it, right? John talked about solar penetration. Holy cow, we're only at 4% in Florida. The opportunity set on solar and storage, fantastic. And again, we'll save customers billions of dollars because we're going to replace fossil fuel, and it's going to -- over the course of the years, while we get to full elimination, it's going to dampen the volatility that they currently have. The resiliency, keeping the lights on in a $1.2-and-growing trillion economy, critically important and embracing new technologies and innovative approaches. So our customers get what they want, what they demand. Obviously, they want electricity 24/7 uninterrupted. They also want, as we know, to do things like drive electric vehicles. Again, the opportunity set is tremendous. Just through now and 2025, it represents $32 billion to $34 billion across a wide variety of different investments that will provide value for the customers. Solar, a big part of it, again, an area that we have a lot of expertise in because nobody has built, owns or operates more solar in the United States than FPL, Nobody. We have the land, we have the interconnect, we have the panels to do all of our projects. '22, our 2022 solar projects, they're operational today, they're done. Our '23, they're already in construction. Circumvention is no issue for us from a standpoint of being able to get our projects. In '22, they're done. In '23, they are on their way. No issues whatsoever. And now that we've cleared that hurdle, I see no impediments to the rest of the solar build that we have in '24 or '25, which allows us to, again, deliver on the promise that we've made to customers, including, by the way, building the largest community solar program in America and now doubling it because demand is so strong that customers say, we want even more. We could do even more, if we had permission. We're already sold out on Phase 2 for our SolarTogether program. It also requires a continuous investment in transmission and distribution, including our undergrounding, which we have legislation that was passed several years ago for systematic programmatic undergrounding approach across our entire system. We have over 70,000 miles of lines, 40% of which are currently underground, 60% which remain to be done. It is a huge capital investment over decades that will occur, that will provide customers with value every single day. And Floridians have made it clear, they want their electric vehicles. We're the second highest penetration of any state outside of California, and it's growing. So we have been investing in electric vehicle charging points and finding creative ways to provide customers for things like tariffs where they can actually have a flat type of fixed tariffs for charging their vehicles and have the predictability and the certainty they need so they can do the planning. Storage, a critically important part of our solar program. We have a lot of expertise in this. Started out as a pilot program, the previous rate case. 2 rate cases ago actually, when you first started talking about it. And we started out with small batteries, less than a megawatt, then a megawatt, then 5, then 10. Up until now, that's a 409 megawatt 40 acre battery in operation today, largest in the world powered by a solar facility, which is just there right next to it. The future is here today. We know how to do this, and we're going to continue to do it. Meeting customers' needs across the board is really important. It's why we're actually building now a water treatment facility right outside of our Turkey Point complex. Why? Because Miami-Dade County, a very important customer of ours, have a problem. They needed to figure out ways to treat grey water because of law changes. And so we stepped up with the solution for them that also helps customers -- electric customers because we drought-proof Turkey Point complex, and we stop using well water, which helps the aquifer, helps the environment, save customers' money and solves the problem for one of our big customers, how to dispose of grey water. Again, the subset of opportunities are tremendous. And when you roll it up, it is a real opportunity for us to smartly deploy capital across a variety of different projects between now and 2025. It allows for about a 9% CAGR on our regulatory capital employed, again, across a variety of different projects, but never ever, ever losing sight of what we must and have a duty to provide our customers that is exceptional reliability. That's the goal, right? Our job, our requirement is reliable power, but we really strive for exceptional best-in-class, finding new creative ways to be even more efficient, keeping bills low, well below the national average. And yes, continuously reducing our emissions profile all the way down now to Real Zero. Thank you very much.

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#6

All right. Well, I am thrilled to be here as the CEO of NextEra Energy Resources. As I look back at the last 15 years of our company, there is so much about which to be proud, so many successes during that time and of course, before that time as well. But as I stand here today, I am so confident that the best is very much yet ahead for us as a company. If you think about what John announced today, our ambition for Real Zero and what Eric just spent time laying out for you our plan, our real plan to achieve Real Zero. Hopefully, you're already excited about what that means for Energy Resources. And it means it's an enormous opportunity. We are well positioned for our customers inside the power sector and our customers outside of the power sector in broader parts of the U.S. economy to be their solution partner of choice. We have deep expertise in this industry, ongoing investments in innovation and an ability to execute. That doesn't mean it's all going to be easy. As Eric laid out, it's a march, not a sprint. There are challenges along the road, and there will be speed bumps, just like we've seen in the last couple of years. But we have the vision, the culture, the passion to be the best that's going to serve us well along the way. And I've been looking forward to sharing some of our plans with you today. Energy Resources is already the leader in electricity from the wind and sun and a global leader in battery storage. We have investments across the United States and into Canada, but our company is so much more than just a collection of assets in the ground. It is more differentiated than just the number of megawatts that we placed into service, and I'm going to talk a lot more about that in the first part of my remarks. One of the core differentiators for us is our culture and commitment to doing what we say and saying what we do. Since our last investor conference call, we laid out significant plans for renewables growth and growth in our business, we have delivered. During that time, we placed 12 gigawatts of new wind, wind repowering, solar and storage into service just in that time frame. We originated 22 gigawatts of new renewables opportunity. We grew NextEra energy transmission, a 120% in adjusted earnings during this time frame. And it's more than just a collection of big numbers of megawatts being built and placed in service, we've also reinvested in our best-in-class development platform, honing the differentiating value creation opportunities that we've long talked about with you, and we've only made better. And I am going to spend more time talking about that in a couple of minutes. I'm also really proud that the team has expanded our relationships with commercial and industrial customers. Of those 22 gigawatts of new renewables that we've originated in just the last couple of years, 25% of it were with new commercial industrial customers and existing commercial industrial customers where we've expanded those relationships, and we'll talk more about the opportunity in C&I customers in a couple of minutes. I love showing this chart and not just because of the big bar on the left, which we are, but there's actually a lot more to take from this data than at first might appear. This is a stacked bar chart of solar, wind and storage origination just over the last 3 years and stacked up our company versus the other competitive developers in the industry, and we are 4x larger than our next largest competitor. We are roughly 10x larger than the next largest competitor after that and more -- roughly 10x or more after all the other competitors. When we've shown you this data in the past, the chart looks remarkably similar. There's a couple of developers with the largest, couple of developers that are large and then a lot of small folks thereafter. These are the 2 guys in Nevis car that are a former Head of Development, used to reference all the time, driving in and out of the data sets, sometimes never to be seen again. I want you to keep this chart in mind as I go through the remainder of my remarks. This is not just a sign of our success, this is an enabler of our success. Because we are bigger than those with whom we compete, we are able to make investments in data and technology that they simply can't make. In some cases, they simply don't have the data, in many cases. And in other cases, they can't make the investments in technology as they don't have the platform over which they can leverage those investments. Success enables success. So long as we continue to invest in our culture and our capabilities, which I can assure you that we are. Another part of our -- doing what we say and say what we do is delivering on our financial expectations that we've laid out for you all. And we've been doing that for now decades, decades of consistent growth materializing year in and year out as we've been building on these opportunities. We delivered roughly 14% growth in adjusted earnings since our last investor conference, exceeding the expectations that we laid out at the time. Now let me dive into the competitive differentiators. There's a lot of competitive differentiators that I could highlight. A lot of words that we've articulated in this slide. And -- but I think a couple of key takeaways. One, there is no one single differentiator that is the most important or singularly important, and they'll all have to come together in every opportunity. But collectively, they really differentiate who we are and how we're able to compete in this marketplace. If there is one common theme on here, I would say it's our people. I genuinely believe we have the best team in the industry, and I'm proud that not only they've delivered the success that we've seen in the past, but every day, they challenge themselves and each other to keep getting better. And that's a key part of what enables our success over a long period of time. John often refers to our competitive advantages as buy cheaper, build cheaper, operate cheaper and finance cheaper, and I will have to admit, that's much catcher than that. But I want to articulate some of what those things translate into because it is meaningful, not just for us in our power sector, but also why it will make a difference for us as we compete in this broader market opportunity that I'll spend time talking about today. So I'm going to dive into a number of these competitive differentiators. One of them is our size. Over the last decade, we NextEra Energy have invested $113 billion in America's energy infrastructure. As John highlighted, that makes us one of the top 5 capital investors during that time frame, not just one year where we invested a lot of money, but consistently year in and year out. We really are our supplier's largest customers in most circumstances. Certainly, if they're a meaningful supplier to us, we're in that top 1 or 2 spot for them. That enables us to buy cheaper, that enables better terms and conditions, that enables better response when things haven't gone well. And occasionally, they don't go well. We've seen some of that in the last couple of years. Whose call do you think they took in the middle of the night when things weren't going well? Do you think they took ours, investing $113 billion in America's energy infrastructure, investing year in and year out, not driving in and out of the data set, which is driving real value year in and year out. I can tell whose call that they took. And not only did they take our call because we're investing a lot with them, but as John highlighted, we've actually cleared roadblocks for them, enabled business opportunities, enable them to reconfigure their own supply chains in ways that are meaningful not just for today, but in the years ahead. And that's something that we can do uniquely in this industry, and we've been doing it, and we will keep doing it. It also enables us to develop and invest in our broad pipeline of development opportunities. By the end of this year, I expect our team to have 95 gigawatts of land positions on which we can build new renewables in the coming years. 70 gigawatts of new interconnect positions. And just from our existing fleet of wind and solar assets that are already in the ground today, we have the opportunity to build 23 gigawatts of storage facilities just in the existing platform that we have of operating assets today. Now I love big numbers as much as the next person. Probably remember, I used to be the CFO and I like big numbers. But the big numbers alone don't enable a sustained competitive advantage over time, doesn't enable us to have the leading position year in and year out. It's not just that we get a lot of stuff in the pipeline, we do market analysis from the top down from the bottoms up. As John highlighted, we look at our customer set and identify where they could actually invest that may better suit their customers and where they plan to invest today. And we're in a position to go and articulate that to them. And I can assure you, before the team shows up for that meeting, apparently, we're not going to eat lunch. Before we show up for that meeting, we make sure that we have the right projects in the pipeline that serve the very needs that will create that value that were low cost for their customers, enable them to meet their sustainability goals even faster than what they had intended. We also have deep transmission expertise, engineers that actually understand the physics of the grid, but also understand the nuances of the regional transmission grid operations, how they think about the system, how they run the system so that when we identify projects, they can interconnect to the grid and create the value that they're intended to create for our customers. I don't know do we build and identify sites in the right place, but we then make sure that when we build the projects, we design them in the best possible way, do in-depth resource analytics, unparalleled capabilities in the industry. Some of the things you've heard from our peers in the industry in recent years that they're just now learning, I can tell you, we learned 5, if not 10 or more years ago, and that's from this team that does unparalleled resource analytics capabilities. But we also translate this into micro siding for the projects, taking tens, if not hundreds, of variables with complex algorithms and then run scenarios, tens, if not hundreds of millions of times, to find the best design for a single 100-megawatt wind farm or solar facility. Far better optimization than our humans who are very talented could do in the time frames required to be commercial with our customers, and this is the type of capability that we've been able to build over time and leverage in our development process. We've also created opportunities on the operations and maintenance side. Talk about being proud of our team, this team that runs our renewables fleet is the best in the industry, delivers best-in-class performance, but what I'm most proud of is that every year, they invest and figure out how they can get better. And the key way that they can do that, as John and Eric have highlighted, is to invest in technology. Our work management system, our digitized AI-driven work management system now make sure that our technicians can go to the right turbine with the right tools with the right work plan in order to restore our equipment back into service. Sometimes with analytics, [indiscernible] keep the equipment from going out of service in the first place. And we've cross-trained all of our technicians. We don't have wind tech and solar tech or battery storage professionals, we have team members that could go wherever is needed and that creates a level of efficiency that has continued to bring our cost down. And what you don't even see on this slide is continue to assure increased revenue production over time to ensure that our fleet is online more than anyone else's is. You've heard me say a lot, data analytics tools. It's not like we're building stuff on the side of someone's desk or on a single professionals machine, we are taking these investments in data and technology and creating software platforms for them, initially to focus on our own operations, which is a great example or 2 on the left, omni and our AI-enabled work management system. Omni, I'm not even sure we've ever talked about with you before, but we've digitized the development process. I would have told you a decade ago, this is probably one of the most human capital-driven parts of what we do, but I can tell you, a digitized process has enabled us to get better information faster in order to be more responsive to our customers and it has enabled us to scale over time and give me confidence today to say, I believe we can scale going forward. The Center of Work Excellence operating system not only is the operating system you'll see when you come to see the renewable operation control center, operating all of our renewable turbines and panels and battery storage facilities, you'll see our technicians actually using this application to run our fleet to ensure that we have better performance than others in the industry. As much as we focus internally and optimize our own portfolio, we've identified the value to churn that externally to make these tools available for customers so that they can optimize their own energy platform. [indiscernible] so John referenced the integrated resource plan in a box at that type of technology, enabling customers to be able to use these tools to identify the opportunities to make their systems better. And one of the things I'm most excited about on this slide is NextEra 360, which I'm going to talk about more in a couple of minutes. It's our energy optimization platform to enable customers to start and manage their journey of managing the energy use and ultimately, their decarbonization journey. It's a really exciting development for serving a huge part of the opportunity set that we see ahead. Why do you need an energy optimization platform anyway? Well, some of what we do -- you know this. Some of what we do is not actually all that easy. Being able to have the experience in a wide variety of geographies, wide variety of technologies in different market constructs with different customers, different offerings to our customers, that experience over time, 3 decades worth, enables us to be positioned to offer unique solutions, unique insights to our customers as we go forward in all of the opportunity set that we see. John spent a couple of minutes of talking about the energy transition across the U.S. economy. There are 3 key areas that are each enormous for Energy Resources to decarbonize the power sector, partnering with our existing customers, enabling them to do this work together and to decarbonize their own fleets. It's to decarbonize the U.S. economy, and it's also to enable transmission, which is really important for enabling both of these prior opportunities for decarbonization, new incremental transmission needs is needed in the U.S. today. The energy transition alone, both the power sector and the U.S. economy, is about a $4 trillion opportunity, and we believe the clear task is to renewables, predominantly opportunities to install wind, solar, storage in the form of battery, storage in the form of green hydrogen. And it's being driven by cost, and it's also being driven by society-wide drivers, driving us towards the path of decarbonization. Let me first take the power sector in turn before turning to the broader part of the U.S. economy. This alone is a $2 trillion investment opportunity. And if you just take our historical win rates, wind, solar, battery storage, and you apply that to the $2 trillion opportunity comprised of those technologies, that's $450 billion of market opportunity for us to go after in the coming decades. That's 800 gigawatts of new renewables. This is the bread and butter of what we do as a company day in and day out, work with our customers, provide them solutions that give them the best renewables project they can to lower their costs and decarbonize their own generation platform. Increasingly, we're talking to them about how this is a hedge against inflationary pressures. If you think about new renewables, there's the initial capital cost, but then extremely low O&M and of course, no fuel cost, which will help in decreasing volatility as customers -- our customers think about how do they create value for their customers. We're already on the path of energy transition. If you go back to 2006, renewables only accounted for approximately 1% of all generation in the U.S. We're now up to 13%. And if you believe what we believe, we believe it's possible that we get up to nearly 60% of all U.S. generation being served by renewables by 2035. We're already on the path of energy transition. If you go back to 2006, renewables only accounted for approximately 1% of all generation in the U.S. We're now up to 13%. And if you believe what we believe, we believe it's possible that we get up to nearly 60% of all U.S. generation being served by renewables by 2035. And if we're right, that's a 15% compound annual growth rate between now and then. So a substantial visible growth opportunity for energy resources to pursue just in the power sector. As I mentioned and John highlighted, it's being driven predominantly by costs. Renewables are still the least cost form of generation in many, if not most parts of the U.S. today. And as we look out into the future, and this is a picture of the late 2020s, we believe they will continue to be the least cost form of generation even if the existing incentive regime follows course as it's currently anticipated and is not extended. So we believe wind is in the range of the mid-$20s to low $30s, solar in the low $30s to mid-$30 a megawatt hour. And both of those are with the Storage Adder to get from what our customers would perceive to be a nearly firm product that will compare against other technologies that they otherwise might consider deploying for their customers. It compares favorably to existing generation, just operating the existing plants in the ground, and it compares favorably against new build opportunities. And that's if you could even build a new combined cycle natural gas plant in the U.S. today. In some parts of this country, that is going to be a real challenge. And that's the other driver, is this broader decarbonization pathway that many parts and we hope more parts of the country are going down. And that's the drive towards renewables, not just because they're low cost, but because they have these additional benefits of lower impact, if not no impact to the environment, like you see with some of the alternative. This bottom right chart, there's a select group of companies that have pledged to only pursue -- only procure 100% renewable energy to serve their electricity needs by some time before 2050. Look at the demand for RECs that creates. That's a lot of renewables just from the select group of companies. And this has taken root in the country and is really driving the demand that we see from our customer base. Let me now turn to the second part of the opportunity, which is a broad decarbonization of the U.S. economy, another $2 trillion opportunity, another at our market share, $450 billion or 800 gigawatts of renewables that we can pursue over the coming decades. Even including being driven by costs and this broader sustainability drive, we believe that the right path, the smartest path that we can see today for our customers and the economy to pursue this decarbonization is primarily through electrification, powered by renewables and also through low and no carbon fuels which were predominantly created from renewables. And hence, the significant renewables generation build opportunity that we see. I don't think there are very many times in someone's life where you can actually see the world changing around you. I honestly believe this is one of those times. I believe a broad decarbonization of the U.S. economy is possible and on a path that makes sense for customers and make sense for the economy. We've laid out a bold ambition, starting with the decarbonization of our own company. We have a real plan. We have real experience in doing this. And we have a commitment to enabling this for others in our industry and beyond. And we are asking companies if they'd like to join us on that path. [Presentation]

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#7

There are companies that have already made some sort of sustainability commitment, obviously. Roughly 70% of the Fortune 500, they've already made some commitments move closer to decarbonization by 2050 or earlier. And it's being driven by a wide variety of factors, not the least of which is ever present stories about the impact of climate change, including the headlines you could read today. Whether that's heat waves in the broader part of the U.S., drought, fires and, of course, top of mind for us every day of hurricanes. It's also driven by the investment community. You're having focus on driving C-suite executives and their Board of Directors to focus on climate change. It also has potential regulatory factors. The broad set of drivers that we think are likely to have been sustained and continue on and accelerate in the future. We believe there's an opportunity for commercial industrial demand to be -- to grow at a 24% compound annual growth rate, roughly 130 to 300 gigawatts by 2025. It's across all sectors. Of course, we've talked a lot about the power sector, but it's also industrial, agricultural, other areas of the U.S. economy that have the opportunity to decarbonize. And generally, companies are looking at it in a couple of different ways. Importantly, emissions from their own operations and also emissions from the energy that secure, including electricity. And as I highlighted before, the key driver, we believe, to successful decarbonization is really at the heart of the deployment renewable energy. And we have an unparalleled platform to be able to help those customers solve those challenges. Of course, traditionally, from their electricity purchase offer renewable energy in front of and behind the meter and with their existing operations, start to have unique solutions powered by renewable energy to solve their problems. We hosted our Inaugural Sustainability Summit earlier this year. We had 170 attendees from 70 different companies attend this conference, and they were Fortune 500 company CEOs, Chief Sustainability Officers, Chief Marketing Officers, all there to collaborate with us, learn from us, share with us their ideas around their decarbonization journey. And we were talking about solutions like this. How do we deploy renewable energy in front of and behind the meter paired with battery storage to decarbonize corporate facilities and data centers? A lot of discussion around data centers, as you might expect with technology companies. Working with industrial customers to really map out how do you deploy green hydrogen, both the use of the green attributes the renewables to create the hydrogen, but also practically, how do you incorporate that into your facilities? How do you ensure that you remain cost competitive? What do you need to assume and rely on in order to make that happen today? And it's also with vehicle fleet operators using technology that we have purchased and integrated into our platform to map out when does it make sense to electrify your fleet? What do you need to do with charging infrastructure? How do you actually charge these vehicles and ensure that there's no disruption to your business operations? We aren't doing this alone, by the way. Of course, we're buying some technology. We're leveraging our own deep expertise in this industry. But we're also partnering with other technology providers. We're also leveraging other solution partners that can help bring the solutions together for our customers. I'm excited about a recent collaboration that we've just started with BCG, leading consulting firm to work with our Fortune 500 customers to accelerate their sustainability journey more cost effectively and at a faster time frame than they might have originally anticipated. And when we talk to all of these customers, there are a couple of things that we end up spending more time talking about the trouble, the challenges that they're experiencing. Remember when I told you that roughly 70% of Fortune 500 companies have established some sort of sustainability goals. It's estimated only 20% of them are on target. And part of those challenges are things like how do I actually get started? How do I figure out where my energy consumption is coming from? Where is my carbon emissions today? Where can I reasonably expect it to be over time? And what do I need to do in order to track my progress? Another set of questions is around, I've already made some investments, and I'm not sure I'm getting the value from them. As I talked about early on in my comments, I was really excited about NextEra 360. As we've leveraged all the tools and experience that we have managing our own business. We are now turning that towards customer-facing platforms like NextEra 360, all of those very [indiscernible]. Let me talk about that first set of questions to get started. We incorporate the data from our customers into NextEra 360. We help them see visualize where their energy usage is actually coming today. We help them calculate their carbon emissions. We help them set plans. We help them manage those plans over time. Let me also talk about that second set of questions. How do I actually leverage the investments that we've already made? A recent big box retailer that we've been working with had installed a battery storage system from somebody else. And they weren't getting the value of that battery storage system. We incorporated them into NextEra 360 and the quote from the customer is within the first month, I see a notable difference. And then over the next couple of months, we proved out that we generated 10% incremental net energy savings versus what they were achieving before. We got 30% better battery performance than what they were accomplishing before. That lowers their overall total cost of ownership, also gives them confidence today to go make more investments because they have more confidence, they're actually going to see the value that they had been promised, and they were expecting and they had committed to internally. As I mentioned that we are partnering with others who are leveraging a lot of tools. This platform is already being utilized to operate $50 billion worth of assets. Now a lot of those are ours. And I'd say this is some of the best learnings in the industry. We're also leveraging the learnings from our customers that we've already integrated on a platform. This is a small select set of those that we're already working with. So I'm really excited about how this positions us in the long term. That long-term opportunity, 7,000 gigawatts of new renewables. Eric highlighted in his remarks, the economic development impact just in Florida of NextEra's specific goal to achieve Real Zero. But we also work with McKinsey of if you broaden that, you think about a broader decarbonization of the U.S. economy. You know what that translates into their estimates, $1.9 trillion in annual GDP, 50 million jobs. Now we've thrown around $1 trillion a lot today, and I'm afraid is starting to lose value for me and for everybody. Let me put that $1.9 trillion in context. If you think about all GDP for the United States. And you assume that over time, we've grown GDP roughly 2 to 3 percentage points per year. This economic impact alone is roughly 25 basis points. So another incremental 10% contribution to the growth of annual GDP. That's terrific. That's a sign that we can do this on a path that's good for customers and good for the economy. Those McKinsey numbers you assume a significant build-out of transmission in the U.S. in order to bring these renewables into service. Not everything needs to be great connected, but a lot does in order to fully unlock the value that we're seeing across the United States. We are excited that we already have a leading competitive transmission company in our business today, fully integrated with who we are and what we do every day in the marketplace. As I highlighted in the beginning remarks, we've already grown adjusted earnings from this business, 120% since last investor conference. I'm planning to invest 18% per year incremental growth in this business between now and '25. If you look at our success rate going back all the way to 2009, about all of the awards of competitive transmissions that haven't gone to an incumbent utility, we've run 40% of them. And that's how we've been able -- as part of that enabled the organic growth. It also has been leveraged through acquiring investments, including Trans Bay Cable and GridLiance. And across this platform, we're leveraging everything we can from NextEra Energy as a whole. Not only that is a significant capital investment plans every day and all of the purchasing power that, that provides, but our deep experience, not just going back a couple of decades, but going back 100 years at Florida Power & Light Company, are successfully bringing in large energy projects into service. That's unique in this industry, as Eric highlighted. I can assure you, I see that every day in our own experience. As excited I am about everything that we've accomplished, as John highlighted, we see a tangible pipeline today of $40 billion of investment opportunity. That's the biggest pipeline we've ever seen in external transmission by far. And that pales in comparison to the opportunities that we see ahead, again, in order to unlock this opportunity abroad decarbonization of the U.S. economy. So let me translate that to near-term expectations. Similarly to what we've already experienced and what FPL has highlighted, the growth in renewables, while terrific today, accelerates over time. We believe over the next couple of years from 2022 to 2025, there will be approximately 30 to 50 gigawatts of new renewables installed annually. And that grows over time, accelerating into the 2030s and beyond. Now as I said at the very beginning, I am really excited about this. I am really optimistic about what's ahead. But that doesn't mean that there won't ever be challenges. There always are and there have been in the last couple of years. As John highlighted, we have seen some supply chain disruption. We have seen some inflationary impacts and some disruption related to tariff uncertainty. And on average, we now think our solar bill for '22 and '23 may experience a 6-month delay. And I'm working, we are actively working with all of our customers to come up with reasonable and acceptable commercial solutions to all of these challenges, both with our customers and with our suppliers. I'm actually optimistic that we're going to be successful across the board. But there is a chance that a couple of the gigawatts in our backlog, 1 to 2 gigawatts of our entire 18 gigawatt backlog could be canceled. But we have factored all of that into the development expectations that I'm going to talk about in just a second. And fortunately, it's against a backdrop of continuing strong renewables demand even today. And it's driven by continuing cost advantages. It's driven by all the things we talked about in terms of decarbonization. It's driven by the fact that natural gas prices have increased significantly, creating uncertainty and even more attractiveness to the renewables that we like to offer to our customers. So I'm pleased with all of that as a backdrop to not only be extending our development expectations range out to 2025, but increasing those development expectations. We now believe between '22 and '25 that we will place into service 28 to 37 gigawatts of new renewables. Now if you remember our prior range, which is a different time frame, '21 to '24, we were expecting to deploy 23 to 30 gigawatts. So if you compare midpoint to midpoint, that's an over 20% increase. I am thrilled with the development opportunities that we see ahead. And of course, that translates into significant capital investment opportunities. We see our capital investment portfolio growing from $11 billion to $12 billion annually to about $15 billion to $16 billion over this time frame. And of course, the vast majority of that being in new renewables and in transmission. And of course, commensurate investments in other parts of our business consistent with the size and growing them along with the rest of the Energy Resources business. Both for adjusted EBITDA and for adjusted earnings, we see significant growth between 21% and 25%. Of course, predominantly both for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings in new renewables. That translates to a compound annual growth rate of 12% per year between '21 and '25. Now I am so excited about what's ahead for Energy Resources. As I highlighted at the beginning of the remarks and emphasized in the video, we are at a terrifically exciting point in time for our company and for our industry. We have a bold vision, a bold plan to get to Real Zero. And that translates to a remarkable opportunity for Energy Resources which we believe we are uniquely positioned to deliver against. Now let me turn it over to Mark Hickson to talk more about how this opportunity set translates to a terrific outlook for NextEra Energy Partners.

Mark Hickson

executive
#8

Thank you, Rebecca, and the outlook for the business through 2025 and beyond as well as our expectations through 2025. But before I do that, John obviously gave comments to put his 20 years at NextEra into context. So that gave me the idea of putting my 10 years at NextEra into context. I've been at this company for a decade, and I can easily say that the current renewable energy environment is one of the best, if not the best, in my entire 10-year period at NextEra Energy. Renewable energy costs have come down substantially over the course of the last decade. Technology has improved, leading to substantial increases in capacity factors and generation for wind and solar and significantly improved energy storage performance. Federal, state and local incentives, goals and standards support continued renewable energy growth and are expected to continue to do so. And importantly, as Rebecca pointed out in her presentation, C&I demand over the last few years has increased significantly as those customers focus on meeting their ESG goals cost effectively. In short, the renewable -- the current renewable energy environment in the U.S., it's pretty great. Customers, all customers recognize the cost competitiveness of renewables relative to all alternatives, and increasingly, those customers are valuing zero fuel cost generation, particularly in this market. And last, customers are adopting renewables and demand and renewables because it's the right thing to do for the environment. These strengths have driven substantial growth at NEP over the last 8 years and are expected to continue to do so through 2025 and beyond. For these reasons, we announced this morning that we are extending NEP's 12% to 15% distribution expectations through the year 2025. In addition, we announced that we are increasing NEP's year-end 2022 run rate CAFD guidance. And last but not least, despite the positive trends that I've seen in renewables in the U.S. economy as well as the comments that John and Eric and Rebecca made about the tailwinds associated with renewables from the standpoint of being able to decarbonize the entire U.S. economy. We also announced this morning that we are flattening the IDRs for NEP as of Q2 2022 at a level of $3.05. And for those of you who have followed NEP for a few years, you will know that in 2017, we had an IDR modification. And in that instance, we reduced the top end from 50% to 25% without any purchase or delivery by NEP of shares or units to NextEra Energy. We simply modify the IDR. This modification is very similar to that. As of $3.05 Q2 of 2022 from that point on as the distributions increase, there will be no incremental IDR fees by NextEra. And there is no share exchange or units coming to NextEra. So very positive development for NextEra Energy Partners. So NextEra Partners is very well positioned to achieve its growth objectives and expectations that are laid out here in the presentation. And now I want to take you through it. So we did the IPO of NEP 8 years ago. We set out to create a leading clean energy company. And boy, are we on our way to doing so? In 8 years, we have more than -- by more than 8x we have increased the renewable energy capacity from 1 gigawatt to 8 gigawatts with the mix of wind, solar and storage. Now I get questions from investors from time to time, does NEP have a desired or targeted mix of wind, solar and storage as a percentage of capacity, percentage of EBITDA, CAFD? And my response has always been that NEP's renewable energy portfolio mix is representative of the underlying development trends taking place in the U.S. If you go back 10, 20 years ago, predominantly wind generation was the renewable generation being built in this country. So 10 years ago, solar generation increased substantially and over the last 5 years, energy storage took off. So there's no surprise that when you look at the NEP portfolio today, the renewables in that portfolio from a capacity standpoint is predominantly wind. Now I expect that if we move through this decade, you're going to see an increasing share of solar and storage added to the mix. Because as I mentioned before, that is representative of the industry dynamics that are taking place with respect to renewable energy. In addition to that, given the comments that John and Rebecca made around the decarbonization of the U.S. economy and the additional technologies that we see are needed in order to enable that decarbonization, I expect additional technologies to be available for NextEra Energy Partners down the road. For example, hydrogen is a possibility. So as we move through time, NEP's portfolio is going to continue to expand from a technology perspective. Sorry, I need to get a water. Now I'm not going to go through each one of these because John touched on them. There's a couple that I really, really want to highlight. So obviously, NEP achieved its objectives, not at the 2019 Investor Conference, but there's 1 or 2 in particular that I'm pretty excited about. The first is the 12% to 15% distribution growth through the year 2024. NEP has achieved a 15% compounded annual growth rate, not only since the June 2019 Investor Conference, but since the IPO. There are very few publicly traded companies in any industry that can say that they've grown distributions or dividends to shareholders or unitholders by 15% with an expectation of 12% to 15% through the year 2025. Very proud of what NEP has been able to do from a growth standpoint for its unitholders. The second thing I want to touch on, on this page, is the fact that NEP acquired 3 gigawatts of renewable energy generation since the June 2019 Investor Conference. What's notable about that for me, and John touched on this a little bit, is the fact that NEP last year was successful in third-party renewable energy M&A. 500 Megawatts approximately acquired by NEP through 2 transactions. And I'm going to take you through in a second, while we feel very good about NEP's potential to be -- to continue to be successful in the third-party M&A market. There are a number of competitive advantages that NEP has as a result of its contractual relationships with NextEra Energy, and I'm going to take you through what those are and why we are particularly optimistic about this year and the coming years from the standpoint of NEP's to continued success in third-party renewables. So I talk about technology diversity. So NEP over the last 8 years also has significantly broadened this geographic diversity from 5 states to 29 states. And very similar to my comments around the potential for additional technologies as we go through this decarbonization of the entire U.S. economy. I believe that more customers in various states are going to participate in this decarbonization. And that is going to continue to open up opportunities for NEP to continue to broaden its geographic reach. NEP has acquired about 1 gigawatt a year. And One of the important features of that is that NEP has been to do that while maintaining its counterparty credit quality, BBB+ and also the fact that, as all of you know, NEP has a focus on long-term contracted assets to maintain that cash flow stability. So having a weighted average life of 14 years is particularly attractive. Another page John touched on, but this one is really worth hitting again. And another thing that given the fact that I've been around NEP since inception, very excited about it. As I mentioned, when we did the IPO, we set out to build a leading clean energy company. And the fact of the matter is we are on the way. I said, "Oh, boy, we're on our way to doing so." And this page really puts that into perspective. Other than NextEra Energy, NEP is now a top 10 renewable energy company based on generation. And given the comments I'm going to -- the pages I'm going to take you through, showing you the competitive advantages that NextEra Energy Partners has relative to the competitors on this page, I expect that as we move through time, NEP's position is going to continue to improve. Rebecca talked about the fact that she loves showing [ bio ] charts with especially where we're on the left-hand side of the chart. And so NEP has got some work to do to get there, but we want to only be second to NextEra Energy. Structural tax advantages. Many of you are aware of the fact that from a structural perspective, NextEra Energy Partners is a partnership. But it is a C-Corp for tax purposes, and therefore, technically, is a federal taxpayer. But because of the attributes of assets acquired by NEP, namely renewable energy assets that are purchased, where they -- they're able -- that NEP is able to create a step-up in basis of the asset, creating accelerated depreciation, NEP effectively brings its earnings and profits for tax purposes to 0. And as a result, NEP hasn't paid meaningful federal tax and is not expected to pay meaningful federal tax for at least 15 years. And because NEP has no current earnings and profits, distributions to unitholders are treated as a return of capital and not taxable dividend. So from our perspective, when you look at the total unitholder return potential, that is a competitive advantage versus those companies who pay dividends who do not -- cannot afford themselves with the same treatment. And last but not least, because it's a C-Corp, investors receive a 1099 versus a K-1, and we believe that this broadens the investor base of NEP and increases the liquidity for LP unitholders. So I touched on this. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it because Rebecca did a fantastic job in talking about the competitive advantages that Energy Resources has in the marketplace. And I love hearing every part of it. You know why? Because as any -- sitting where I sit from an NEP standpoint, we have contractual relationships, O&M agreements, administrative services agreements, management services agreements. And so all of the low-cost development expertise, all of the AI and data analytics, I love it because it makes NEP very competitive, not only when purchasing assets for energy resources, but also third parties, as I'm going to talk about with you in a second. That, coupled with the financing flexibility that NEP has, and we have always, for the entire 8 years that we have had NEP as a publicly traded company, we have had the best minds focused on NEP, financial minds in the company. That is something that Jim has always said and it continues to be the case today. And so the combination of partnering with NEP -- I'm sorry, partnering with Energy Resources, the contractual relationship, the financing expertise and the competitive advantage are our people is going to make a huge difference in terms of NEP's success going forward. Now I'm going to talk about growing NEP. This is a chart that similar to what we've had in the past, and I love that consistency because the characteristics of the types of assets that make sense for NEP have been consistent. The long-term contracts, stable cash flows, creditworthy counterparty, staples for NEP in any asset that it looks to acquire. What has evolved over time is the types of assets that are suitable for the NEP portfolio. We've had wind and solar since inception. We've recently added battery storage, distributed generation, but I am particularly excited about the other technologies on this page. Green hydrogen. Like a couple of years ago, our former CEO kind of declared a green hydrogen is here, right? So -- and we spent a bunch of time on green hydrogen, but I will tell you where we've spent more time which is on projects that are almost 100% green. But you know what's great about them? And you've seen some, so I'm not going to do any name plugs of investments that we've made in almost 100% green companies. But what I will tell you that what they have in common with 100% green hydrogen is they use a lot of renewables. And we have a lot of promising situations where we have the ability to enter into long-term contracts with companies who have very promising either 100% green or nearly 100% green technology. Very excited about that. I'm also excited about the fact that we have increasingly seen some interesting activity in the water space. So for those of you who have attended the conference in the past, you will know that these bubbles have changed slightly. But I think that I'm particularly excited about the blue, given what we expect to happen and the technologies that we think that the market has to bring to bear to achieve this decarbonization of the U.S. economy. So I'm going to talk about growth avenues. This is a page that -- well, it's the same, but it's different. So it's the same because it's the same 3 avenues that NextEra Energy Partners has to be able to grow, acquisition of assets from Energy Resources, acquisition of assets from third parties, acquisition -- I mean, organic growth. But it's different because the opportunity set is so much greater than when I stood in front of you back in 2019. If you look at the top end of opportunity from Energy Resources, 51 gigawatts. June 2019, that was 29. So significant increase in the opportunity set of acquisitions available from Energy Resources despite the fact that over that 3-year period of time, Energy Resources sold assets to NEP as well as third parties. As Rebecca pointed out, given our competitive advantages and our market share scale, Energy Resources is developing assets and adding to the backlog and development outlook at an amazing clip. Second, and I will tell you that, that first chart, all of these charts are primarily an outlook through 2025. So the first one is through 2025. Third-party acquisitions is through 2025 and then obviously, organic growth is the current portfolio. So this is an outlook for NEP's growth opportunities just through '25. This is forgetting about the decarbonization, everything that John and Eric and Rebecca talked about, this is just current state of the market, wonderful opportunities for Energy Resources. Third-party acquisitions has also gone up tremendously over the last 3 years. And as I mentioned, we have redoubled our efforts on third-party acquisitions. And so I'm very excited about that and then organic growth opportunities. So this gives you a much more detailed snapshot of the potential assets that are available for acquisition by NEP from Energy Resources. 16 gigawatts of operating renewables, 16 gigawatt backlog, as Rebecca talked about, and then you have this potential additional growth. And as I mentioned on the last page, this opportunity set is 80% higher than what we showed you in June of 2019, incredible. And this is another page, that's the same, but it's different. And what's really cool from my perspective, and John touched on this in his presentation, is a tag line on this page. Because of the substantial growth at Energy Resources, NEP has the ability to grow at 12% to 15% through the year 2025 without any solar or storage in the backlog and without any additional wind development pipeline. I mean it is pretty incredible what Energy Resources has done the last time that we were able to get together. Third-party M&A. So I touched on this, 2 transactions last year, about 500 megawatts. We have serious competitive advantages as a result of our relationship with NextEra Energy Resources. The operating platform, low cost of capital, Rebecca touched on this. And it shows up on this page. Look at what we've been able to do at Energy Resources from a cost standpoint, from an operating cost standpoint, the wind fleet, the solar fleet. And as we look at third-party M&A, the bar is on the right-hand side, are what we see that we are able to do versus what the sellers have in their forecast. So this isn't something where we are just kind of making up numbers. We are actively working on multiple transactions that are going on in the marketplace. So we have real data behind the fact that we believe that we consistently see about a 25% O&M savings relative to the market. This is a huge competitive advantage, along with our financing advantages. And so the fact that we have redoubled our efforts on third-party M&A and the level of activity that we see currently, very excited about that. So organic growth repowering. Last investor conference, we announced that we were doing 275 megawatts of repowering at 2 of our projects. We executed on those in 2020. A number of benefits, as you can see on this page, for the NEP unitholder. What those benefits translate into? If you were to look at acquisition of assets from Energy Resources, acquisition of assets from third parties and compare that to the economics of NEP investing in organic growth opportunities in its own business, it's superior for NEP to do these types of transactions. And so we are very focused on these types of opportunities for NEP. And as NEP's portfolio continues to expand over time, there are going to be more of these types of opportunities. The thing I should have touched on in the prior page is there's 8 gigawatts of renewable energy assets in the current portfolio. Last investor conference is around 5 gigawatts. So we have a 60% increase in the suite of assets that we're evaluating for organic growth opportunities at NEP. And if we are able to get some extension of federal tax incentives for the PTC at or near the current levels, that's really going to open up the opportunity set for NextEra Energy Partners. Another organic growth opportunity that we have been evaluating for NEP is energy storage. Now obviously, today, you build the energy storage at a solar facility, you're able to avail yourself to the ITC. And if you remember my prior chart, it showed that we have only about 1.5 gigawatts of solar out of the 8 gigawatts in the portfolio, the 8 gigawatts you see on this page. So I'll make another plug for tax incentives, which is simply to say, to the extent that we're able to get stand-alone storage ITC, it is really going to open up a suite of opportunities at our wind sites for energy storage. Very attractive opportunity. So all of the pages that I touched on, hopefully, I was very careful to communicate to you that all of them focused on expectations through the year 2025. And so this page is really dealing with what Rebecca spent a lot of time talking about, which is the decarbonization of the entire U.S. economy. So in my remarks at the beginning, I talked about outlook through '25 and beyond -- outlook through -- expectations through 2025 and beyond. And this page is the beyond part of the outlook for NEP. So as I mentioned before, as we move through this decarbonization of the U.S. economy, and we bring additional technologies to bear. Some of those technologies are going to need renewables quite honestly. And some of them are going to be renewables related like hydrogen, right? And so that suite of opportunities is going to continue to create tailwinds for NextEra Energy Partners beyond 2025. [indiscernible] talk about financing, I touched on this. But again, our IDR fee modification that we announced this morning is very similar to the one that we did in 2017. From the standpoint of NextEra Energy did not require any shares or any purchase, anything of that nature. So we simply flattened at $3.05. And from that point forward, the IDR fee is 0. So another tailwind to -- for NEP's 12% to 15% distribution growth through 2025. You can see here what we expect the additional cash flow to be available for the NEP unitholder, going from about 80% to about 90% in 2025. And you can see the numerous expected benefits for the NEP unitholder. Financing flexibility. So I'm going to try because I'm running out of time, but I'm going to try to touch on this page really quickly. This is another page that I'm really excited about. I know there are some people that say, NEP is complicated. It's got a lot of things going on. We have created a ton of value for unitholders through our financing flexibility. We started from the IPO to 2016, doing common equity issuances, typically at a discount. And as soon as you issue the common, you got the requirement to pay the dividend, you got the IDR fees, all of those things. So starting in 2017, we said, is there a way for us to allow the NEP unitholder to retain more of that cash? So we started in the first half of 2017 with a $550 million convertible debt. It was up 15% versus a 5% discount. We moved from there to convertible debt up anywhere from 25% to 50% depending on whether you include the CAP call. And then we move to what is my favorite, which is the convertible equity portfolio financing. So we've gone from up 15% to up 25% to up 50% to up more than that by virtue of availing ourselves to this convertible equity portfolio financing. So we have -- in my opinion, we have really truly demonstrated tremendous financial flexibility at NEP. And we still have all of the suite of financing opportunities available to us. [indiscernible], so I'm not going to go into it in detail. I think we spent a decent amount of time on this in the past, but needless to say, and I touched on this on the last page, it is really a benefit to the NEP unitholder in terms of not having to pay the common dividend and the IDRs when we had the IDRs out of the box and retain that upside as well as the ability to layer in equity over time without a discount. We announced the upsizing of the revolver to $2.5 billion. Obviously, in this market, it's good to have a decent-sized revolver, so we're extremely happy about that. So outlook. 12%, 15% through '25, touched on the fact that we raised our year-end 2022 CAFD guidance for all of the reasons that I mentioned, a really exciting time for NEP. I cannot -- as Rebecca said a number of times, there's challenges, there's bumps along the way. But when you look at things over a longer period of time, you recognize that things are pretty great in the renewable industry. And this chart is the sum total reflection of what's going on in renewables in the U.S. This is my chart of beyond -- primarily beyond 2025. It's 2025 and beyond '25. We got the 3 growth avenues. And as Rebecca talked about, we have growth for decades to come on the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. I've talked about all of the attributes that NEP has to successfully compete in the renewable energy market and continue to grow for the benefit of the LP unitholders. So I'm excited for what's to come for NEP, and I hope you all are as well. Kirk?

Kirk Hachigian

executive
#9

All right. Good morning. It's great to see so many of you in person instead of over Zoom. One of the best parts of my new job is I get to sit with people and share with them our incredible story. And we have certainly shared a lot of information with you today about our story. So I think it makes sense to pause for just a moment and let me summarize the key takeaways from what you've heard today. And I want to begin where John began at roughly 8:30 this morning, which is NextEra Energy is going to help lead the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. And we can accomplish that vision in 4 ways. We're going to decarbonize ourselves, and you heard our plans at FPL from Eric. We're going to decarbonize the power sector, helping IOUs, munis and co-ops add renewables to their footprint. We're going to decarbonize all other sectors, helping C&I customers meet their sustainability goals by delivering to them clean energy solutions and building them a ton of renewables. And we're going to invest in our competitive transmission business to support the renewable penetration we expect to see as a result of the decarbonization effort. Now that is a multi-decade vision. So let's narrow it down to what you heard from John, Eric and Rebecca about what to expect over the next 4 years. And beginning with John and our strategy, we're going to continue to focus on our core businesses. At FPL, that means growing regulatory capital employed to improve the customer value proposition, right, low bills, high reliability, outstanding customer service. At Energy Resources, it means expanding our leadership position in renewables, building wind and solar and storage and transmission. Now as Eric shared with you, we are seeing just a tremendous amount of organic growth in Florida. On the current pace, we're projected to add 500,000 customer accounts through 2025. And with a constructive 4-year settlement agreement, we have the opportunity to deploy smart capital for the benefit of our customers. So over the next 4 years, we're going to deploy capital. We're going to invest roughly $6 billion to add just under 5 gigawatts of solar. And as we shared with you today, solar is a deflationary product and serves as a hedge against higher natural gas prices. We're also going to invest in T&D infrastructure and underground to support the $2 billion a day of GDP we're responsible for, which translates to roughly $18 billion to $20 billion of capital. And all of these investments, these investments are good for customers. They make bills more affordable and they improve reliability. Now with respect to Energy Resources, Rebecca shared with you, as did John, all the tailwinds that support a terrific renewable environment. And while there are a number of drivers, the most compelling one in my mind, is that renewables are the most economic form of generation. And as you've heard today, we're particularly excited about the $4 trillion opportunity to decarbonize the U.S. economy. And I don't believe anyone is better positioned to lead that clean energy transition than energy resources. You've heard about all our competitive advantages today, 30 years of experience, an industry-leading development platform, huge data advantages in terms of the amount of data we own, but also our analytic capabilities, right? And I want to begin where John began at roughly 8:30 this morning, which is NextEra Energy is going to help believe the decarbonization of the U.S. Economy. And we can accomplish that vision in 4 ways. We are going to decarbonize ourselves and you heard our plans that FPL from Eric, we are going to decarbonize the power sector helping IOUs, [indiscernible], add renewables to their footprint. We are going to decarbonize all other sectors helping CNI customers meet their sustainability goals by delivering to them clean energy solutions and [indiscernible]. And we are going to invest in our competitive transmission business to support the renewable penetration we expect to see as a result of the decarbonization effort. Now that is a multi-decade vision. So, let's narrow it down to what you heard from John, Eric and Rebecca about what to expect over the next 4 years. And beginning with John and our strategy. We're going to continue to focus on our core businesses. At FPL, that means growing regulatory capital employed to improve the customer value proposition, right, low bills, high reliability, outstanding customer service. At Energy Resources, it means expanding our leadership position in renewables building wind and solar and storage and transmission. Now as Eric shared with you, we are seeing just a tremendous amount of organic growth in Florida. On the current pace, we're projected to add 500,000 customer accounts through 2025. And with a constructive 4-year settlement agreement, we have the opportunity to deploy smart capital for the benefit of our customers. So over the next 4 years, we're going to deploy capital. We're going to invest roughly $6 billion to add just under 5 gigawatts of solar. And as we shared with you today, Solar is a deflationary product and serves as a hedge against higher natural gas prices. We're also going to invest in T&D infrastructure and underground to support the $2 billion a day of GDP we're responsible for which translates to roughly $18 billion to $20 billion of capital. And all of these investments, these investments are good for customers. They make bills more affordable and they improve reliability. Now with respect to Energy Resources, Rebecca shared with you, as did John, all the tailwinds that support a terrific renewable environment. And while there are a number of drivers, the most compelling one in my mind is that renewables are the most economic form of generation. And as you've heard today, we're particularly excited about the $4 trillion opportunity to decarbonize the U.S. economy. And I don't believe anyone is better positioned to lead that clean energy transition than energy resources. You've heard about all our competitive advantages today, 30 years of experience. an industry-leading development platform, huge data advantages in terms of the amount of data we own, but also our analytic capabilities, right? We've invested in innovative technologies and businesses that are strategically linked to building renewables. Market expertise from being in 49 states, huge O&M efficiencies and advantages. As we shared with you today, over the next 4 years, we could see up to 160 gigawatts of renewable demand. If you take 160 gigawatts of renewable demand by Energy Resources average market share, it translates into roughly 32 gigawatts and 32 gigawatts at Energy Resources is awesome for NextEra Energy, but it's also awesome for NextEra Energy Partners. Mark just took you through the NextEra Energy Partners story and plan and the key objective, so I'm not going to repeat them. But let me just say that we are really excited about the opportunities at NextEra Energy Partners. And we have tremendous visibility into being able to grow LP unit distributions. We've shared with you over the years, we can grow LP unit distributions in 3 ways: organically through acquisitions from Energy Resources and through acquisitions from third parties. As Mark just told you, we're particularly excited about renewable M&A from third parties, giving our low cost of capital and O&M efficiencies. Now as we think about those opportunities to continue to grow LP unit distributions, I want you to also realize that as we think about the future, okay? And we think about all those growth prospects, including at Energy Resources and Energy Resources, where we have the operating portfolio, we have a backlog and those 32 gigawatts of opportunities, we are confident that we can continue to grow LP unit distributions by 12% to 15% per year through at least now 2025. Now interestingly, since 2015, NextEra Energy Partners has delivered DPU growth expectations of over 19%, which is more than 6.5x the average rate of other yieldcos. And yet, our 2025 forward distribution yield is one of the highest among our peers. So I want you to look at this slide and think about this slide and think about this for a moment because it doesn't make a lot of sense to me, maybe it will make some sense to you. If I look at this slide, NextEra Energy Partners has DPU growth expectations of 12% to 15% through 2025 for superior than any other yieldcos on the page. And if you think about the track record, it has a history of delivering DPU growth of greater than 19%, which is more than -- which is better than the historic growth rate of 3% compared to the peers. And yet, it has a high forward distribution yield. As you think about whether that makes sense to you, I want you to also consider this. If you took the S&P 1000 companies, and you evaluated all of them against these growth and value characteristics on the left side of the slide, you would conclude that there's only one company that meets all of these criteria and its NextEra Energy Partners. If I take the distribution growth plus the distribution yield plus the benefits that Mark talked to you about, it translates into a total potential return per year of 16% to 20%. There is no yieldco that has the visibility into growth as NextEra Energy Partners, and I believe it presents a compelling investment opportunity. Before shifting gears to NextEra Energy, let me just add, we are really optimistic about the future. We're really excited, and we are confident in our ability to grow LP unit distributions. Now turning to NextEra Energy. And John, Eric and Rebecca shared with you our key objectives. But given the growth visibility we have at FPL and at Energy Resources. We are expanding -- excuse me, we are raising NextEra Energy's adjusted EPS expectations by $0.05 in 2022, $0.05 in 2023, an additional $0.05 in 2024 -- and an additional $0.05 in 2024 for a total of $0.10 and growing -- and growing 6% to 8% off that revised adjusted base. Keep in mind, we're raising adjusted EPS on the heels -- on the heels of raising adjusted EPS just 5 months ago in January by $0.10 -- thank you. Keep in mind, we're raising adjusted EPS on the heels of a $0.10 increase this past January. Putting that all together, it reflects a 10% compound annual growth from 2021 to the high end of 2025 on the adjusted EPS expectation ranges. And as John said, we'd be disappointed if we're unable to deliver financial results at or near the top end of the adjusted EPS expectation ranges through now 2025. We're also doing that with 70% of our business being regulated and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Now others have suggested to you that they can grow at 6% to 8%. And as you think about that as an investor, I'd consider a few questions. Who do you believe can deliver 6% to 8% growth? Who has a plan to deliver 6% to 8% growth. Who has a history of delivering 6% to 8% growth. That's something you can certainly evaluate, but I know where I would put my money to work. Now growing at 6% to 8% requires a great strategy. It requires a strong balance sheet, and it also requires financial discipline. And we have shown over the years, a commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet and being financially disciplined. And if you look at the right side of the slide, because of our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet, we now find ourselves uniquely positioned on the left side of a bell curve. And as a result of our commitment to maintaining the strong balance sheet, we have one of the strongest credit positions among large rate-regulated electric utility holding companies. I want you to consider how challenging it must be for those who have weakened their balance sheet in the light of the inflationary environment that we're in, in the higher natural gas prices. So you can expect us to continue to remain committed to the financial -- remain financially disciplined, committed to the balance sheet. Now interestingly, on the left side of the slide, despite having one of the higher downgrade thresholds compared to the average of the top 10 IOUs. We've demonstrated year after year, we have the ability to finance our growth, deliver value to shareholders and still maintain our strong balance sheet. And while others have sacrificed their rating we haven't, we've been focused on not just maintaining ours but improving our overall credit quality. Last year, S&P lowered its FFO-to-debt downgrade ratio from 21% to 20% and recognition of our business strength as well as our leading position on ESG factors. And I certainly believe than our goal to achieve real zero carbon emissions by no later than 2045 will further enhance our ESG profile. As ESG disclosures become required and as banks begin to allocate capital based on ESG positions, I'm convinced that being a leader in ESG will serve as a real competitive advantage. Now keep in mind, our goal to achieve real zero is expected to lower cost for our customers, but it will also help maintain our baking relationships and give us greater access to capital. And not just access to capital but access to efficient capital. Now before talking about how we are going to finance our growth, let me just add an exclamation point on one of the things that we've talked about often today, which is how our balance sheet is such a competitive advantage for us. I want you to think back to one of the slides that Rebecca shared with you. It was the market share slide where NextEra Energy is on the far left or the tall bar chart, and then to the right are over 45 of our competitors. And of those 45 competitors, if we attach the developers' names to those bar charts, you would likely not recognize most of them. Here's a few ways that we are able to leverage our balance sheet to win and renewables. We can use our balance sheet to fund over 70 gigawatts of interconnect positions. We can use our balance sheet to secure over 95 gigawatts of land. We can use our balance sheet to secure over $2 billion in safe harbor equipment. We can use our balance sheet to invest in innovative technologies that translates into over a 40 bp IRR improvement. Those are a few ways that we're able to leverage the balance sheet to win in renewables, but we also use the balance sheet to help both businesses, in terms of our buying power, in terms of our ability to manage disruption but also in terms of our ability to finance our growth, which is a good segue into how to think about how we plan to finance the growth. It starts with having the strongest baking relationships in the industry. We have secured over $36 billion in credit from over 100 banks across 18 countries. And because of that, we also have the strongest corporate credit facilities in the industry. We've secured over $20 billion in corporate credit facilities, which is more than 2x our largest peer. And having these corporate credit facilities is a key component to our financing strategy. It allows us to be opportunistic. It allows us to be flexible, and that has produced outstanding results. Compared to the industry average, we have a longer weighted average debt tenor and yet we have a lower weighted average interest rate by more than 75 bps. Now we financed the businesses a little bit differently. At FPL, the strategy is to focus on long-dated maturities, but to give ourselves the flexibility of entering into short duration. Capital Holdings, which I believe you all know, is the financing vehicle for Energy Resources. We build all our renewable projects on balance sheet, and we tap into all the available products that we can access through capital holdings to build on balance sheet at a low cost of capital. And then as those renewable projects reach commercial operations will enter into long-term financing, either project debt or tax equity and then restore the balance sheet. We also recycle capital as a source of funding, right? We recycle capital selling assets to NextEra Energy Partners or assets to other third parties. But one of the sources of funding that's often overlooked is how strong our operating cash flows are. We've deployed capital smartly over the years, investing in regulated businesses as well as in long-term assets with strong contractual cash flows. And as a result of that, we generate a terrific amount of cash flow, right? We are a cash-producing machine. And that's really good since, as you heard from John, we plan on deploying roughly $85 billion to $95 billion of capital over the next 4 years, which means, as we shared with you before, we're going to operate in a free cash flow deficit. We're okay with that. It means we have great investment opportunities, and those great investment opportunities will translate into long-term growth for our shareholders. Now this is a slide we've shared in the past. It's our extreme no-growth scenario. But I think it really demonstrates how strong our cash flows are. And this scenario assumes that we don't grow, assume that there's no capital recycling, assume that we don't deploy capital or CapEx is converted into maintenance CapEx. Our operating existing businesses will generate terrific cash flow, the ton of cash to the tune of roughly $8.4 billion. And in this hypothetical scenario, we could take the $8.4 billion of free cash flow, return it to shareholders and still meet the financial expectations that we've laid out today. I think that certainly serves as a floor for a terrific investment opportunity. Now having strong cash flows is great for the dividend. As you know, the dividend is a Board decision, and earlier this year, the Board approved a DPS growth policy of roughly 10% through 2024 off of a 2022 base. And with a payout ratio of roughly 60%, we are well positioned to continue to deliver a terrific growth profile versus our peers. I want you to think about a DPS growth policy of 10% and adjusted EPS expectation growth of 6% to 8%, put all that together, and it represents a fantastic potential total return. And despite that fantastic potential total return, if you look at our PEG ratio, NextEra Energy has the lowest PEG ratio among top 10 power companies by market cap. I want that to sink in for a few moments. It's very rare that we will show you a valuation slide where we're on the far right of the chart. It's even more rare that we'll show you one where we're below the average. This certainly suggests to me that we are trading at a very attractive valuation, particularly given our long-term growth prospects. So think about this, evaluate whether it makes any sense to you. And while you're doing that, consider this. We took the S&P 500, and we identified all the companies with investment-grade credit. And then we identified all the companies with a market cap greater than $60 billion. And then we said, let's look for those in that grouping, that has delivered adjusted EPS growth of greater than 8% for the last 15 years. And then we consider total return greater than 10%, EPS growth of roughly 10%. And then let's risk-adjust it. Let's think about it on a risk-adjusted basis, it's like companies that have a 5-year beta of 0.75 or less. One company meets all of those criteria and its NextEra Energy. We offer what we believe is a best-in-class investor value proposition on a risk-adjusted basis. We have 2 outstanding businesses, the best utility in the world and the best renewable developer in a world. FPL is going to continue to build renewables and invest in transmission and distribution infrastructure for the benefit of our customers. Energy Resources is going to build renewables with long-term contracts and invest in regulated transmission. We're excited about not just the next 4 years, for the next 3 decades as we lead the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. So in closing, let me just add a bookend to John's opening remarks. We've never been as optimistic about the future as we are today. Our team is laser focused on executing, and we are confident in our ability to deliver on our financial expectations. Thank you for your kind attention today. We really appreciate it. We're going to take about 30 minutes of Q&A. With that, let me ask John, Eric and Rebecca and Mark to join me on stage. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

Unknown Executive

executive
#10

Okay. Don't be shy. Who's first?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

analyst
#11

Congratulations again. Well done. Again, Julien Smith, BofA. So let's just rewind the script here. So you guys said a lot over the last few hours. I just want to come back to where we started some of this. So let's talk about the comfort that you guys articulated in dealing with all the supply chain issues cumulatively, right? And I want to state this sort of clearly, right? Status quo, right, based on what you guys have announced today, even if the ADC BDCs continues past August. Even if it expands the scope to wafer, right? You all feel comfortable not just through the '24 time period but beyond that time period in addressing the totality or substantively the total of your solar procurement. I just want to make sure that this comes across really clear.

Unknown Executive

executive
#12

That's right, Julien. Let me just take it in first piece is got 24 months, right? 24-month waiver on duties. Second, our supply chain was already moving out of China. And we've some of our supply chain this month that's capable of making wafers outside of China. The rest will come over the next 24 months, we really expect -- most of our suppliers to be capable of producing all their wafers outside of China by early 2024. So the way I think about the circumvention issue is that with the 24-month waiver that we just received from the Biden administration, it's not an issue for us going forward.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

analyst
#13

Got it. Excellent.

Unknown Executive

executive
#14

Does that make sense?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

analyst
#15

Absolutely. Thank you for clarifying that. And if I can throw one other big macro question to you. I mean all of what you said caveat is that it does not include any of the tax extension, extenders, BBB, et cetera, et cetera. So to the extent to which that something like that materializes, again, I'm not asking to weigh probabilities, but simply the flex points, right, a solar PTC, hydrogen storage ITC, et cetera. Could you help put parameters around what moves the needle and perhaps to what extent it does as well as just to what extent that could shift around your megawatts, right? For instance, a pushout in total megawatts in '24/'25 extent which something happens and maybe demand is a little bit more flatlined.

Unknown Executive

executive
#16

Yes, let me take those pieces, too. So first of all, all of our financial expectations that we shared today assume current tax law. I want to make that very clear, current tax law in the financial expectation that we shared with you today. You asked about what parts of the benefits -- the business would benefit most if we were able to get tax reform. And I think -- I mean, look, the first thing I would answer is when you have a very large renewable platform like we do, all the wind, all the solar that exists today. And if you're able to get a stand-alone storage ITC, imagine the opportunity set that provides with the existing fleet, right, with wind, solar and then with the stand-alone storage opportunity as well. So that's the first piece. The second piece is, obviously, a storage PTC moving from an ITC to PTC would provide significant economic opportunities for us as well. It plays right into our hydrogen strategy for a little bit about it around Real Zero, the plan that we have with FPL. We haven't been shy about talking about all the other hydrogen pilot opportunities that we've been exploring and Energy Resources. We've been working on a number of initiatives there. And then the transmission ITC. We talked a lot about transmission today, but the ability to add on top of that a 30% transmission ITC, obviously, is a big driver for the business. If you did get tax reform or your second question, I think you asked, Julien, was about the demand. How would we expect the shape of the demand to potentially change over time. The way I would answer that is, what, if you had a 10-year PTC around wind and solar in today's natural gas price environment, I still think you're going to see a lot of wind and solar get built near term with or without tax reform because it's a hedge against a rising natural gas price environment and you get the offset for free. So when you talk about all these entities that have net zero requirements, the ability to really lower the electric bill yet the renewable energy credit for free as part of buying wind, part of buying solar, that's a pretty easy economic discussion to have with a customer. So we feel like we're positioned well both ways. I mean, obviously, as an industry, I think the opportunity to get tax reform is significant. But if we don't get it, I still think we are very well positioned.

Shahriar Pourreza

analyst
#17

It's Shar, Guggenheim. Rebecca, can you just maybe elaborate a little bit more on the 2 gigawatts of potential project cancellations, especially given tariff risk subsiding and potentially supply chain issues being transitory. What's the dialogue you're having with the offtake or is it if the projects are sustained, could you deliver above plan in '23 and '24?

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#18

So the expectations include all assessments of contracts existing in the portfolio, what we think new demand is -- so I think that's the key takeaway. But to the first part of the conversation or the question, as I highlighted, I mean, it's constant of all those factors, supply chain disruption, inflationary pressures and the disruption around the uncertainty for tariffs, and that contributes to the delays in the project and also the broader commercial discussion that we have to have. And we're having discussions with both suppliers and customers. As I highlighted in the comments, I am actually very optimistic about getting to reasonable solutions. And the reason for that is we think about the position that our customers are in, which is they watt renewables to be incorporated into their portfolio, and you think about what John highlighted and what I highlighted in terms of the alternatives. The alternatives are not particularly attractive for the customers. There is a huge incentive for them to work with us to find the right solutions to the challenges that we've seen -- so those are all going well. But I did want to -- for full transparency, indicate that there's some amount of risk. I think it's really small. It may not going to be as big as 1 to 2 gigawatts as we highlighted today, but that risk is actually factored into the expectations I feel really good about where we stand today for the expectations, outlook that we provided for the next 4 years, and the demand remains very strong.

Shahriar Pourreza

analyst
#19

Got it. And just, Eric, just one question on sales growth. what's that you're embedding in plan -- what's the sales growth that you're embedding in planned 1%. What's the reality of what you're seeing in your footprint, especially given sort of the tailwind that you've highlighted in your state? And is there any sort of assumption around EV penetrations in that number?

Eric Silagy

executive
#20

Yes. Well, what we're seeing actually is about 1.4%, and taking out about [ 0.4 ]% because of energy efficiency. Particularly remember, in Florida, we have a lot of new construction. So you have a tight building envelope like wind loading requirements, et cetera. Also in Florida, you end up replacing air conditioners typically every 10 to 12 years. And so you end up with more energy-efficient units that are coming in. So all that said, net, it's about 1%. We have some projections of EV growth. That's really not moving those numbers at all. We're going to see how actually -- how much comes in. Yes. There's no doubt about it. And what you'll see is the vast majority of customers on the residential side are going to be charging their vehicle at night. So what you'll actually get is greater utilization of the existing fleet in the evening hours. Now as we migrate into more on commercial fleet, then you'll see more usage during the day as well.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#21

It's Andy [indiscernible] from [indiscernible] just first, thank you guys for doing this in person event, it's been a lot of fun for everybody here. So I appreciate that a lot. I guess the first question I have is just around the growth rate because if you go to Page 177, you talked about a growth rate of 9.8% through '24 and then it kind of reverts back to the 6% to 8%. So what is the catalyst of, I guess, that higher growth rate? I don't know if people kind of missed that in the presentation. And then the opportunity to maybe continue -- again, I know it's 6 to 8 and it's always high end, but to continue that kind of higher growth rate beyond '24?

Unknown Executive

executive
#22

Sure. Andy, I'll take that. So first of all, just to be clear on what the expectations are. $0.05 up in '22, $0.05 up in '23, $0.10 up in '24, $0.10 up in '25. We wanted to be very clear how we got to the $0.10 in '25. We got there by growing off of our rebate in '24, which is now up a dime, growing that at 6% to 8% to get to the increase of a dime in the range for '25. And one of the catalysts for it, we feel terrific about the way the business is operating today. All the opportunities that we discussed around energy resources, around Florida Power and Light, the ability to take a significant amount of cost out of the business, like I said before, we're just getting started. I mean, we've been doing our project accelerate momentum. Now we call it velocity for 10 or 11 years. They had a record year, record year, record year, 10 years in, of over $400 million, and it's an exercise with you every single year. That was just this year's results. Imagine what we might be able to do in '23 or '24 or in '25. Those are a couple of examples. And then haven't really having the circumvention issue behind us. Rebecca talked about it. All of the things that we've seen in analyzing all of our contracts, it's all embedded in those financial expectations. So when you put those 3 pieces together with a handful of others, we feel terrific about the growth prospects that we have at the company, very confident in our financial expectations.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#23

And just to be clear, you're saying basically through '24 to close to a 10% growth rate, that's what that slide say?

Unknown Executive

executive
#24

Yes. So when you put it all together, from 2021 through 2025, that's about a 10% growth rate. That's correct.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#25

Got it Okay. And then moving on to a different subject.

Unknown Executive

executive
#26

I would say -- from an investor value proposition, I would challenge you, right, to find a company that's growing at 10%, 70% of which is a rate-regulated utility. You saw the pay ratio slide that Kirk had up in the end.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#27

And I can't think of any. So we are on the same page. Okay. And then the second question I have is really around the data advantage that you talk about on the renewable side because I think that's also another thing that's kind of underappreciated because people can build things. Obviously, you have an advantage as far as your balance sheet and knowledge and all that and your name. But I think also the data advantage and what you've accumulated over the last 15 years. If you look at some of your smaller competitors, they always talk about not mentioning names, talk about their data, but they obviously don't have that accumulation of information. And so could you just talk about how that -- I don't know if we can put it in my dollar amounts, but how that lowers the cost to your potential customers, whether it's on the FPL side or on the nonregulated side. But I think that's a significant number. Again, you probably can't put an exact number, but how that really helps you and your customers?

Unknown Executive

executive
#28

Yes. I would think of it really in 2 ways. One, it does drive the project returns because we're able to do things a lot more efficiently because of the things that we've learned over time. For example, I'll give you a couple of examples. One, how we dispatch the battery. The market knowledge we have on hours of the day to charge, hours of the day to discharge, understand how gas is correlated to power in different markets. All of that matters are transmission understanding as well. How we set up the array, right? How you space, winter it? Where you put the solar panels on a site, selecting the right sites. All of those have a significant driver in the IRR and the MTV that you are earning off of those renewable projects. And let me address the first part, Andy, that you talked a little bit about, which is other companies talking about data. [indiscernible] advantage of that and maybe design tools. We've been at it for 2 decades. We have a 25 gigawatt portfolio. You saw the slides, we're looking to double it, be up around 52 gigawatts. Nobody even comes close to the data advantage that we have. And we have a land pipeline with sites and interconnection already locked up across the entire country that selected leveraging that data and then being able to go in and design solutions for customers. I think this is the industry, and one of the things I hope you took away from today is -- it's an industry that's changing rapidly, and it's changing from a customer standpoint. What the customer wants to need today requires a partner that has a sophisticated understanding about how to solve a clean energy problem for that customer, not only if they're in the power sector, but even if they're outside the power sector. Think about our real zero announcement today. How many other folks do you think in our industry will try to replicate that, right? And when you -- our announcement is real, go to our Real Zero blueprint. It has real milestones on how we plan to get there. A lot of work went into that. A lot of algorithms, a lot of design, a lot of know-how and thinking about how to solve that complex problem. We can use those same skill sets, which are really a data and innovation advantage to help others in our industry solve that same complex problem. And if others in our industry come forward with a real zero or aggressive net zero opportunity, that means a lot more renewables for Rebecca's business. And then think about when we start going outside the power sector and we present ourselves as we're the world's leader in renewables, battery, solar, wind, we bring all the pieces together. We're the first energy company to come out with a real zero goal. We thought through how to do it. We're the perfect partner to help you think through it as well because in thinking through it, you need a partner that can do two things. One is take cost out of the bill. If we can go into a customer and say, I could take 10% to 20% off your bill, right off the top, the renewable discussion is easy because I'm going to do it by moving them over to renewables because renewables as our company is, I think, demonstrated over a number of years does not have to be low cost, but actually almost every time means lower cost, lower cost solutions. We think we have something to offer that's unusual. We think we have a something to offer with our data and innovation skills that really is unique in our industry and that really nobody has. And when you combine it with all the other skills that we have, I feel terrific about our opportunity to go after what we see is a massive opportunity to build more renewables.

Unknown Executive

executive
#29

For a second -- just to give you a couple of examples, what John talked about in the competitive advantage and what it matters for our customers. So because of the decades of experience, we're able to take that experience and that data, if you will, and continuously learn from because fundamentally, we have a culture in the company that's not satisfied and making sure that we're actually taking the data and then learning from it and improving. It informs all of our decision-making on which technology we choose for a site. How we cite wind turbines, solar facilities, battery storage, whether or not you put a 4-hour battery, a 2-hour battery, no battery at all, whether or not you put in fixed panels or tracking panels, all that data makes a huge difference. On the FPL side, it informs every decision we make, including how we run our plants. I mean our gas turbines are the most fuel-efficient in the world as well as we have the best reliability on our gas turbines in the United States, probably in the world, people don't reward it. We didn't invest these gas turbines. We're just operating them, using the data we have and a lot of what we're doing is taking that data and now we're predicting failures before they occur. That translates every single day into value for our customers, whether customers at FPL or whether Rebecca's customers so she could actually then solve their problems rather than saying, here's what you need. We actually listen to what they say in Salt Lake. When I used to run our business in Texas, I was amazed how many wind turbines from others that would drive by and see them either not spinning or see them right in a way that I knew they were getting weight. So their output was nowhere near what it should be, which is basically hidden. You don't ever see that. But there's a loss of revenue that they're not getting every single day and their customers aren't seeing. The data is tremendously important, but what you do with the data is really what's brilliant.

Steven Fleishman

analyst
#30

Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research. A question probably for Rebecca. Thinking about I think you made a good case on the relative economics of renewables in this inflationary environment. But just some of the disruptions from AD CVD and that case still going on and lithium price -- various price increases, just how should we think about backlog in terms of new projects? And when will there be momentum in backlog right now? Or do we need to wait a little bit to see kind of backlog start accelerating, again, just so that people kind of get -- customers get used to the environment we're in?

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#31

Yes. Let me start bigger and then I will come back to answer more directly to the question. I feel very good about the 4-year development expectations that we laid out, which are significant. There's a lot for our team to go and do, but it was with a lot of thought that we built, what the expectation look like, just like what I laid out for how we think about our development platform, top-down analysis, bottoms-up analysis, talking to individual developers that talk with these customers every day to get a sense of where we think they're going to need renewals and where we think they're going to buy renewables in the near term. So overall, I feel great about the expectations. I think sometimes you all want a very linear cadence of signing contracts and having a specific announcement every quarter. If I take just the one step back, the demand trends are terrific. They continue to have robust discussions across our customer base on the IOUs muni co-op and on the commercial and industrial side, exactly what's going to happen in the next quarter versus a quarter after that, I don't know. But the trends look terrific, and I feel great. So hopefully, that's the answer. Yes, in our customer discussions, we are having all types of conversations like that. As soon as the antidumping countervailing duty case was open, the investigation initiated. I can assure you we are immediately on the phone with our customers that I would hesitate to say all of them because I'm sure there's one that knew about it. But the vast, vast mass majority and we were the first person to call them and tell them this was happening and hear what the potential impacts are -- so that involves a lot of discussion with customers. They understand it. Fortunately, they know that these are exogenous events that are outside of our control, and we are actively working together to solve the problems.

Steven Fleishman

analyst
#32

So just to follow up on that. I'll let there's so many questions to ask. But the -- do we -- I guess to ask that in another way, do we need to see the preliminary decision in that case? -- in terms of like for, again, future backlog after the 2 years?

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#33

Yes, John highlighted the announcement of the delay from the Biden administration, which we very much appreciate and John articulated really well, I think we're instrumental in terms of bringing that to fruition is very helpful with the discussions with customers. There is a level of visibility now that's good. We still need to work with the suppliers in order to ensure that we're going to get the panels exactly in the time frames in which we anticipated. And that -- those types of discussions are why I still think there's roughly a 6-month delay on average for our '22 and '23 storage and solar build. So I feel the tolerant tenor of the conversations are terrific. The demand is awesome, and I'm really excited about what's ahead.

John Ketchum

executive
#34

And Steve, just adding one thing to that. I don't know if part of your question was about where things stand with the order. I mean it's done. We've looked at it, our lawyers have looked at it. President has authority to sign the Defense Production Act. It's done.

Jonathan Arnold

analyst
#35

Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research. Just on your slide, John, you talked about the cash flow forecast being around in line with earnings. And before, I think it used to say at or above, is that to do with the change in the IDR or something else going on there?

John Ketchum

executive
#36

Jonathan, I'm not sure I got the last piece of that.

Jonathan Arnold

analyst
#37

Well, just one thing I thought maybe it could be the IDR reflect...

John Ketchum

executive
#38

You are talking about NEP on the increase in the [indiscernible].

Jonathan Arnold

analyst
#39

But no, other question is you previously commuted had cash flow OCF growing at or above EPS. And now it's saying about in line. So just curious if there's a change there.

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#40

But Jonathan, be clear that's for NextEra Energy Partners?

Jonathan Arnold

analyst
#41

NextEra, NextEra.

John Ketchum

executive
#42

For NextEra. No, I mean I think they're roughly in line with each other. That's historically -- if you go back over the last 10 or 20 years, I think we've grown earnings and cash flow together. And that's pretty much what you see. We don't expect any change there.

Unknown Executive

executive
#43

Richard, behind you.

Sophie Karp

analyst
#44

Sophie Karp, KeyBanc. Just a question on the markets where you're present. You're already in 43 states. So I guess, do you plan to cover the entire map in color green? Or is there anything in the other states that's not attractive? And in the same vein, could you maybe describe the relative attractiveness of the markets where you're currently in, maybe with the focus on the big ones, such as Texas and [indiscernible]?

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#45

I'm laughing because we had a lot of debate about exactly what takes the color green. We finally centered on the ones we actually have operating assets or have assets by the end of this year. But if you think about where we actually have activity, it's 49 out of 50 states. And I'm heavily debating whether or not we send someone to Alaska next week. So next time I show the slide [indiscernible]. That's the only one we're missing where I can't readily tell you that we have already interest or significant activity.

John Ketchum

executive
#46

I'll go there in summer.

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#47

We got time. In terms of where we're operating, I think it is indicative of where we're operating, which is across the United States and into Canada. We still remain very North American-centric. As we laid out today, the opportunities are really enormous from now decades ahead of us. And I think it's broad-based. I think it's all of the markets in which we've operated in the past. And I think with the focus on commercial and industrial customers as they start to decarbonize, that may enable us to move in some of the states and some of where we've been less interested in the past because we continue to focus on long-term contracted cash flows, creditworthy counterparties, things that are consistent with what you've heard from us in the past that in some markets, it's a little bit harder to do. So like that mid-Atlantic and to some extent, the Northeast, I think, will be increasingly a terrific opportunity for us. But when you're talking about $2 trillion, $2 trillion plus an enormous number of trillions as well on the transmission side, that's going to be across the U.S.

Steven Fleishman

analyst
#48

I have a quick question on Slide 186 to serve a clarification. And a lot of -- there's a lot of concern about the economic forecast. I'm wondering what your anomic forecast is? And whether or not, if I heard you correctly in your sort of no growth, the 186 is that no growth slide. Are you guys indicating essentially that your recession prove on an absolute basis? In other words, if we have a recession or what have you and guys for whatever reason, things change that if I heard you correctly, I think you said that you could meet your financial targets. I just wanted to clarify, is that -- did I hear you correctly? Or could you elaborate a little bit on that in terms of how should we look at you guys -- because people are worried out there about a recession and the high-interest environment and that type of thing.

Unknown Executive

executive
#49

Let me take that first, over to Kirk to add on. But first of all, that's the slot we've had I think, dating back, I don't know [indiscernible] in investor conferences. And here's the way that I look at, Steve, is that it's basically, one, we feel great about our growth expectations, right? When we look at our economic forecast, feel very good about our ability to deliver on our growth expectations. But what we would like to do in showing that slide is don't ever forget we are a cash flow machine. We are able to generate a ton of cash. So as a floor on the investor proposition, if you were ever concerned about the growth, maybe slipping a little bit, which we are not, then remember, the CapEx opportunities would go down at the same time. We'd be enormously free cash flow positive and we would be able to buy back shares and achieve our EPS expectations for some time. I think those -- that's the point that we're trying to make there. We don't expect to ever have to rely on that. We feel very good very confident about the growth expectations that we have in the plant. We just don't ever forget the amount of cash flow this business generates.

Steven Fleishman

analyst
#50

Good answer. And just on offshore wind, I didn't hear you guys really discussed that much, but with the higher fossil prices and everything out there, any change in your interest in that?

Unknown Executive

executive
#51

That's good to say no.

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#52

But we do like transmission that may support connecting some of these offshore wind projects into the states in which they've been procured.

Unknown Executive

executive
#53

Yes, we do. Any other questions? I think we might have time for one more.

Michael Lapides

analyst
#54

Michael Lapides with Goldman here. I had 2 questions. One is probably for Kirk and one is kind of for John and the Board. For Kirk, the base case shows a pretty sizable free cash flow deficit kind of in the $8 billion to $12 billion a year and that's before dividends. So the real number after dividends is a bigger number than that, I think. How do you think about financing that? Like is that just being financed with a mix of FPO debt, holdco debt, near debt, project debt, how do you think about the equity side of financing that to maintain the credit metrics? That's the first question, and then I'll follow up.

Terrell Crews

executive
#55

Sure. So I would start with the slide that we shared with you that demonstrated having a strong balance sheet has been a really, really competitive advantage to us. So I'd start there. We're going to always maintain a strong balance sheet. But as we also shared with you, we have great banking relationships, over 100 banking relationships. We've demonstrated over the years a way to finance the growth, maintain the balance sheet and deliver on expectations. We have a lot of tools in the toolkit. We have lots of different ways to finance it from capital holdings. So we have a number of different ways that we think we can do it. We've always as a financing strategy, been extremely flexible and opportunistic about what shows up and when. That's one of the benefits of having the large corporate credit facilities is it gives us that flexibility. To the last question, as John was mentioning, we have terrific cash flows. Since 2012, we financed 70% of our CapEx through operating cash flows and capital recycling. So we've been able over the years to manage the growth and finance it in a very opportunistic way that keeps cost of capital low, and we'll deploy the same strategy to meet the $85 billion to $95 billion of capital we plan to deploy.

John Ketchum

executive
#56

Yes. And a few things that I would add on to that. The first is we've always operated on a free cash flow deficit right. So this is nothing new. The second thing I would say is NextEra Energy Partners, right, we have the ability to recycle capital. We've done that very successfully. I think over the past few years, you can see the benefits it has for NextEra Energy, the benefit it has for NextEra Energy Partners as well. Having a strong balance sheet, having the cost of capital advantage, having access to 101 different banks, having the flexibility of the different things that we can do. But that A- balance sheet is really important, particularly when you start thinking of the renewable business. We compete against a lot of really small players who don't have the access to capital and the cost of capital advantage that we do. So I would argue that a little higher interest rate environment, creates even a bigger competitive moat for us because it gives us even more headroom when we go to compete against the unrated wind developer, the unrated solar developer, the unrated storage developer. And one thing we don't talk about at all, you guys have seen it in our financial statements, we have billions of dollars of interest rate hedges. Don't forget that.

Michael Lapides

analyst
#57

Yes. John, if you don't mind 1 follow-up. Just curious, I mean, it's a difficult time in the equity markets across all sectors, pretty much, how do you and the Board in the conversations with the Board think about kind of the -- what's the trigger mechanism where you might put the brakes a little bit on growth and actually implement that the slide where you would consider buying back stock given how much your existing asset base, whether it's FPL upstreaming cash or the renewables that you're already in service, generating a ton of cash, kind of that trigger mechanism for where you might look at reallocated from growth into your own equity?

John Ketchum

executive
#58

Yes. I mean I would say we're not capital constrained, right? We have terrific access to capital, but returns have to be either, and they have been there. We've had terrific returns in the wind business. We've had solid returns in the solar business as well. And as long as the returns are there that support good capital investment opportunities. Remember, those returns are taken into account as interest rates are going -- as interest rates are going up and financing costs are going up. And so those are all evaluated as a part of the puzzle. But I think right now, and Rebecca touched upon it, we're in an environment where costs are going up. Inflation -- you saw the slide I had. Solar is up 11% or 16%, wind's up 11%. But look at where gas is, there's a lot of room to work and get deals done with customers. We have a PTC and an ITC right now that help enable that. But even when those go away, costs continue to come down, and we think will come down over time. We're seeing some inflationary pressure right now. But over the long term, renewables are going to get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's how we think about it. Any other questions? Okay. Great. Thank you.

Rebecca Kujawa

executive
#59

Thank you.

Unknown Executive

executive
#60

Thank you.

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