Zydus Lifesciences Limited (ZYDUSLIFE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 10, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorWelcome to Zydus LifeSciences Limited Quarter 1 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I'll now hand the conference over to Mr. Ganesh Nayak, Executive Director of Zydus LifeSciences. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Ganesh Nayak
executiveGood evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our post results teleconference for the quarter ended June 30, 2022. For today's call, we have with us Dr. Sharvil Patel, Managing Director; Mr. Nitin Parekh, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Arvind Bothra, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Mr. Alok Garg, Senior Vice President from the Managing Director's office. I hope you would have gone through the quarterly results, investor presentation and the press release, which are available on our website and also filed with the stock exchanges. First of all, let me quickly run you through the Q1 FY '23 consolidated financial performance. We registered revenues of INR 40.7 billion, up 2% year-on-year. Excluding COVID-related revenues, the growth was 11% on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 8.33 billion, down 14% year-on-year. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 20.5%. Net profit for the quarter was INR 5.18 billion, down 12% year-on-year. We remain vigilant on managing our costs well and improving efficiencies across the value chain to meet our aspirations of achieving 20% plus EBITDA margin for FY '23 as we aim to grow across all our key businesses. Before I dwell into the operational highlights, I would like to draw your attention to key points related to our 2 key geographies, namely India and the U.S. Our India geography, which comprises of the formulations and the consumer wellness businesses now accounts for 46% of the total revenues and grew 12% year-on-year adjusted for COVID-related revenues in the formulations business last year. Our U.S. formulations business, which accounted for 40% of the total revenues, grew double digits on a sequential basis, aided by volume expansion in existing products and new launches. Now let me take you through the operating highlights for the first quarter of FY '23 for each of our business lines. Starting with our formulations business in the India geography, the branded business grew by 9% year-on-year, excluding revenues from COVID-related products, generics portfolio and divested products. Overall, the business recorded revenues of INR 11.3 billion, down 17% year-on-year on a high base. Secondary sales growth remained robust for the period, signifying healthy demand trend. We gained market share and improved ranking in our core therapies in the cardiovascular, gynecology, respiratory and pain management therapeutic areas during the quarter on a Y-on-Y basis. Lipaglyn is now ranked as the 66th largest brand in the Indian pharmaceutical market during the Q1 FY '23, improving by 13 positions versus Q4 FY '22. Lipaglyn is our first indigenous new chemical entity launched in the market. We continue to retain our leadership position in the nephrology segment, while in oncology, we gained multiple ranks and are now amongst the top 2 players in India. Our consumer wellness business recorded revenues of INR 6.9 billion, up 18% year-on-year. Timely onset of summer and improved distribution reach helped us re-recruit the consumers for summer heavy brands like Glucon D and Nycil. This helped us achieve double-digit growth in these 2 marquee brands. Now let me take you through the performance of our U.S. formulations business. We recorded revenues of INR 15.6 billion with a 10% growth on a sequential basis. Price erosion during the quarter was almost entirely neutralized by volume share gains in the base portfolio and launch of new products. We received 7 new product approvals, including 1 tentative approval and launched 8 new products during the quarter. Approvals for the quarter include 1 first cycle approval. We filed 8 ANDAs during the quarter, including 3 filings which are designated as CGT, which is competitive generic therapies. On the emerging markets front, the business maintained its growth momentum and recorded double-digit growth. Overall, the business posted revenues of INR 3.2 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The growth was broad-based across most of the geographies. The U.S. FDA inspected our Moraiya formulations facility between the 26th of July to the 5th of August 2022, which concluded with 4 Form 483 observations None of the observations were related to data integrity. The company will submit its response to the regulator within the stipulated time. We have put up a new oral solid dosage facility in the Ahmedabad SEZ, SEZ2, to cater to the requirements of the U.S. market. During the quarter, we successfully completed the qualification and took the first exhibit batch from the facility. Now this concludes the business review. I would now request Dr. Sharvil Patel to take you through the key drivers across businesses and initiatives in our innovation program. Dr. Sharvil Patel?
Sharvil Patel
executiveThank you, Mr. Nayak. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure to have you all on the call today. As we continue to evolve as an innovation-driven life sciences company, our focus remains on building businesses with sustainable growth on a long-term basis. We continue to invest resources organically and inorganically in their pursuit and endeavor to enhance shareholder value in the process. Let me share with you the strategic direction for 2 of our large businesses, which is India geography and the U.S. geography. As mentioned earlier, our branded formulations business in India grew by 9% year-on-year. In the near term, we aim to grow in line with the market. In the medium term to long term, we intend to outperform the industry growth substantially. This will be achieved by expanding our presence in chronic therapies, introducing new molecules in focused therapies, expanding the presence in institutional segment and leveraging our innovation pipeline, including the IP-protected novel molecules and biosimilars. We will leverage digital technologies to improve our decision-making and to optimally utilize our resources to expand reach and availability, thereby improving the health outcomes for our patients. The consumer wellness business regained its growth momentum driven by strong traction seen in its marquee brands. We aim to consolidate our position and sustain the momentum by expanding the distribution network, launch of new variants to meet consumer preferences, and in turn, emerge as a formidable consumer wellness company. The U.S. formulations business witnessed healthy rebound highlighting our strength in execution. We look forward to commercialization of our differentiated pipeline, supported by our business development efforts. Our specialty portfolio is likely to scale up over the medium to long term, and we want to become a niche and a sustain -- and want it to become a niche and a sustainable growth pillar. Our philosophy to invest in people to build the businesses has received external validation as well. We received 2 noteworthy recognitions recently, the first being the most preferred workplaces by Marksmen in association with Economic Times and India Today; the second being amongst the best workplaces in the biotech and pharmaceutical industry 2022, by The Great Place to Work. With this, let me talk to you about the material developments on the innovation front. On the NCE research front, as you are aware, our Phase IIb/Phase III global clinical trials for saroglitazar magnesium to evaluate its efficacy and safety in patients with primary biliary cholangitis, which is PBC and its Phase IIb global clinical trial of the molecule for the NASH fibrosis indication are currently going on for the U.S. market. During the quarter, we completed the hepatic impairment studies in NASH and normal PBC patients, the results of which will be submitted in the near term. Clinical trials of saroglitazar magnesium in the U.S. are ongoing for indications of PCOS and NAFLD also. We completed the Phase Ib trial for desidustat in the United States for chemotherapy-induced anemia in cancer patients. The pre-IND meeting with the U.S. FDA is scheduled in the current quarter to seek for further guidance. During the quarter, we completed recruitment of patients for our Phase II clinical trials of ZYIL1. The molecule is targeted at Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome, which is CAPS, a rare indication. We are planning to initiate a global pivotal clinical trial for this molecule in the near term. This marks our third NCE in our global development. On the biotech space, we received market approvals for the drug substance of biosimilar Adalimumab from the Russian Regulatory Authority. We continue to file new products in many of our emerging markets and want to enter new markets through partnerships to ensure long-term sustainable growth for this business. On the specialty front, our wholly owned subsidiary, Sentynl Therapeutics, incorporated commenced commercial supply of Nulibry during in the quarter. Recently, Nulibry received positive opinion from the Committee for Medical Products for Human Use, the CHMP, for Nulibry for the treatment of patients with Molybdenum cofactor deficiency type A. The brand also received Industry Innovation Award 2022 from the National Organization for Rare Disorders in the U.S. Sentynl continues to run various programs to expand awareness and early diagnosis of the Molybdenum cofactor deficiency type A and Menkes disease, both of which are life-threatening pediatric genetic disorders. Thank you. And now we will start with the Q&A session. Over to the coordinator for the Q&A.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. First question is from Neha.
Neha Manpuria
analystMy first question is on the U.S. business. We saw a very strong growth quarter-on-quarter. I know in the opening remarks, you mentioned volume and new launches. If you could give us a little more color on what you're seeing in Asacol? And in terms of the volume expansion, are there any one-off product suppliers that we have seen? Or is this a sustainable base that we should grow?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we don't have any one-offs in these overall numbers. We did see a sequential growth on the business because we continue to gain volume share on the base portfolio and also the new launches helped. So despite the pricing pressures that do continue in the U.S. because of base volume growth and new product introductions, we were able to deliver on this growth. And going forward, I think we are currently at a sustainable base, which we hope to grow forward.
Neha Manpuria
analystAnd is it fair to assume, sir, that the Asacol pressure that we were seeing through last year that is stabilized now?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes. So there was no pressure on Asacol. It was just an inventory real -- look, I mean the inventories would have been high during COVID, which could have normalized, but Asacol has been steady in terms of its share.
Neha Manpuria
analystUnderstood. My second question is on the cost. If I were to look at our employee cost or even SG&A ex R&D, there seem to be a fair bit to increase quarter-on-quarter. Not so much in the G&A, but more on the employee cost. So I'm assuming there's some amount of increment? Or is this the base that we should be looking at? And on the SG&A, has our SG&A spend [indiscernible] booking spend in India fully normalized?
Unknown Executive
executiveSo on the employee cost, Neha, basically, Q-on-Q, we don't to make a lot of sense and possibly year-on-year make sense because in April, we give increments and incentives including onetime performance rewards. So about 8% impact is on account of increment and performance bonuses only. And about 2%, 2.5% impact is because in the last quarter, that is Q4 of 2022, we had actual gain because on a yearly basis, they're [ exercise ] done or twice in a year or so. So in September, again, it will be done. So that is the reason about 2.2% change occur because of that. And about 1.5% is due to new recruitments also.
Neha Manpuria
analystUnderstood. And this new recruitment would be in India, sir?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Across, but largely in India.
Neha Manpuria
analystGot it. And my last question on the India business. I know there was COVID base, but our decline seems to be higher than some of what our peers have reported. In the ex COVID base, are we seeing improved traction from the initiatives that we have taken in India, give some color there?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think for us, as we have also stated, we -- last year, corresponding quarter, we had a significant sale of COVID-related portfolio, which obviously largely driven by remdesivir. But without that, we have had a 9% year-on-year growth. And if you look at the latest [ AVX ] data also for July and all, we are tracking better than market. So I think we are on track to grow as per market in terms of our current efforts. And the key drivers from whatever work we have done in terms of our earlier initiatives continues, and we're seeing some traction there. But as we go forward, our efforts on institutional business, our efforts on the chronic segments that we want to leverage and more importantly, our strong IP-protected business that we are trying to create all will drive sustainable growth for the domestic business for us.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Surya Patra.
Surya Patra
analystFirst question on the kind of the gross margin [indiscernible]
Operator
operatorMr. Surya, sorry. Your voice is not clear.
Surya Patra
analystIs the audible now?
Operator
operatorYes, you can go ahead.
Surya Patra
analystSo on the gross margin front, I just want to [indiscernible] in that. So what are taking of [indiscernible] is it while the domestic-branded business has performed well. [indiscernible] is it that the volume gross in the U.S. market, to some extent, have a [indiscernible] is that the reason? [indiscernible]
Unknown Executive
executiveMr. Surya, your voice is not clear. We are not able to get that. Surya? Your voice is not clear to us. Can you try to get back on the line. There's some disturbance in the line that we are not able to hear it properly.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Prakash Agarwal.
Prakash Agarwal
analystI just missed one comment on the U.S. business. There is a sequential improvement. Is it like volume has improved or we had some good launches? If you could elaborate that? That's my first question.
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo the growth in the U.S. is both. We had a base business volume growth and a new product growth also. So it's a combined effort.
Prakash Agarwal
analystBut anything you want to call out in terms of any new product which would have contributed? Because most of the other companies have reported a sequential decline with double-digit erosion in the base business. So did we experience that? And if not, what is our base business erosion? And what are the key new launches we had, which contributed?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo [indiscernible] I mean, we saw an overall growth of 8% quarter-on-quarter on our U.S. revenue, and this was mainly driven by volume growth. There was a price erosion of the impact of 2.5%, which was offset by new launches.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. Fair enough. And how do you see the remaining 9 months for us on the U.S. side?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo our current best estimate, we believe, is that currently, we're at -- our base business is currently on track, and we believe we can grow from that. We can believe is the current base that we have. And we'll improve on the run rate as we continue forward in the coming quarters. And we do have some important launches that are also phased 1 or 2 quarters.
Prakash Agarwal
analystAnd second question is on the complex injectables. In the past, we have spoken that the second half of fiscal '23, '24, we should start seeing this. What is the update on that? How many filings we have? And when do we start seeing the monetization?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes. So I think when I'm talking about the U.S. business, which is -- which we believe can continue to grow. It is also backed by our launches on the injectable side. In terms of very large complex injectables, the process of approval and launch will be obviously much later on. But with the current portfolio, we are seeing still good traction in terms of growth.
Prakash Agarwal
analystSharvil, question was on complex injectables. Are we still under like development and due for filing by end of this year? Or -- what is the update there?
Sharvil Patel
executiveWe're still -- we continue to file complex injectables every year, and we have a pipeline of at least another 5 to 6 molecules which are highly complex, which we still hope to file, but we are filing 1 to 2 complex injectables every year.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. Fair enough. And lastly, on the margin front, I mean I understand there has been an inflation, understand freight and everything is very high. Is there an outlook you're sharing on the margins, adjusted margin at 18.5%?
Unknown Executive
executiveWe already talked about 20% plus margin for the year.
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think last time I had given an idea that we would believe that we will be 20% plus margins. We hope to sustain these margins by FY '23 by optimizing all our efforts that we are doing. Also between quarter-on-quarter, obviously, it's a question of product mix -- sorry, business mix that happens. But we are still confident that our 20-plus percent EBITDA margin, we should be able to deliver for FY '23.
Prakash Agarwal
analystAnd this is core margins, today is 20.5% or 18.5% as per you?
Unknown Executive
executive20.5%.
Sharvil Patel
executive20.5%.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. This is reported margins you are saying?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes.
Operator
operatorNext question is from [ Kashish Thakur ]. Okay. We'll go on to the -- Kashish?
Unknown Analyst
analystCan you hear me? This is Vinod.
Operator
operatorOkay. Vinod, yes. You can go ahead.
Unknown Analyst
analystJust an update on a couple of questions, a couple of products in the U.S. Any further update on Revlimid launch? You already have a tentative approval? Are you looking forward to launch in the coming quarter?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes. We are looking forward.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And the second, you -- I believe you have a settlement to launch generic Trokendi in coming January. Is that correct? Are you looking forward to launching that?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think every product, but when we come closer to that, we will talk about those launches because I think it will be a little too early. And I mean not good to talk about them right now.
Unknown Analyst
analystGreat. No issues. You've got a final approval for Jardiance, I guess, a couple of weeks back -- or a week back. Would you confirm if you have a first-to-file exclusivity in there? Is it shared? What is the outlook there?
Sharvil Patel
executiveI don't have the immediate update, but I can get back to you whether we have any exclusivity or not.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Great. Great. One final, if I can add that. In Moraiya facility, in the other facility, you got an approval, although you had some 483 observations without a reinspection. Would you be able to -- would you think you will get an approval for Moraiya without reinspection despite these 3, 4 observations that you have gotten?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think observation -- linking observations to a reaudit is not the right thing. I think in -- when we had our observations that were there for Liva that were addressed in an appropriate manner in a stipulated time. And the facility was found to be acceptable in terms of a [indiscernible]. And we continue to get our approvals. Moraiya, we will respond in the stipulated time that we have with the agency and work with the agency for whatever will be the next steps. But I think to link observations to a reaudit is not the right way to look at it.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Vishal Manchanda.
Vishal Manchanda
analystOn your Adalimumab biosimilar approval in Russia, could you share what's the market size there and some color on the competition?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we are the first -- I mean, on competition model, we will be the, I think, either the 1 or second generic in that market. So there will be 1 more generic maybe. And in terms of size, I don't have it with me, so maybe we can give you once we find out because the data is -- we don't have all that data, but we'll come back to you with what is the market opportunity size in for Adalimumab.
Vishal Manchanda
analystOkay. Would this be a tender opportunity? Or you would need this -- you would need to promote it and hence, you would need a partner in Russia?
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo, it would be sort of a tender opportunity.
Vishal Manchanda
analystOkay. And do you think it's going to be meaningful?
Surya Patra
analystFrom our emerging markets business point of view, yes.
Vishal Manchanda
analystAnd any other geographies where you would be expecting biosimilar approvals on the emerging market trends?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think our next big market opportunity we're looking is for the Latin American markets, where we could -- where we believe the opportunities could be sizable, and there we are also expecting 2 to 3 approvals.
Vishal Manchanda
analystSo is Brazil one of them? Or you would look at Mexico, Colombia and other markets?
Sharvil Patel
executiveOn the immediately basis, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela markets.
Vishal Manchanda
analystOkay. Okay. And just one on Lipaglyn. Is the growth on Lipaglyn primarily on account of the liver indication approval that you got last year?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think that is added to the growth. So we have 2 indications. But yes, the [ lipid ] indication will be the strong growth driver going forward.
Vishal Manchanda
analystAnd there is still large headroom there in that indication?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes, yes. It's a very large INR 4,000, INR 5,000 crores plus market. So is a good opportunity.
Vishal Manchanda
analystOkay. And any color that you would like to share on desidustat launch in India? That has happened?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes. So the launch has already happened, and we are tracking. As for these type of products we are tracking, prescription and patients to make sure that we are able to provide the treatment options that they desire and follow through with them. So the initial beginning is good, but it's still very few very early days, but the interest from the medical community is very good because this is a replacement of an injectable product with -- which can tremendously benefit in terms of both patients on dialysis or not on dialysis.
Vishal Manchanda
analystWould you also be able to target the iron sucrose market with this product, desidustat or just the [indiscernible]?
Sharvil Patel
executiveIt's mostly the [indiscernible].
Operator
operatorNext question is from Sriman.
Unknown Executive
executiveI think they will have to unmute, Sriman.
Operator
operatorYes, Sriman, please unmute yourself.
Unknown Analyst
analystDr. Sharvil. Can you hear me?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Dr. Sharvil, I just want to know, we had an agreement with Korean company Enzychem Lifesciences? So are we getting any revenue on the technology that you have transferred to them?
Sharvil Patel
executiveWe are currently getting -- we aren't getting any revenue. We are in the phase of tech transfer, which then will be followed by a regulatory inspection in their facilities and then potentially launch in the markets that they are targeting.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. But initially, it was told that 80 million doses will be manufactured somewhere in 2022. So are we still in the process of transferring the technology only?
Sharvil Patel
executiveThe technology transfer has happened, but it will have to go through a WHO approval process. So once that happens, then the -- so I think on the immediate basis, I doubt if they'll be able to produce so many doses this year. But once they are through with some of the other regulatory approvals, maybe they can, but it's a very fluid situation. But at least they are continuing with the regulatory status filing.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. So the revenue, the -- whatever the revenue that we are going to get is only based upon the production or irrespect of the production?
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo, based on the production and sales.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. Next question is from Sameer Baisiwala.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystThis is Sameer from Morgan Stanley. I dialed in 5 minutes late, so I may have missed it. But Sharvil any thoughts on the potential Asacol HD competition?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think, again, it's always difficult to predict. But as per our latest understanding or estimate, we believe the competition may not be there before quarter 4 of this calendar year, but that would be our best estimate.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystOkay. And in the context of Revlimid, you said that you all set to launch next quarter. Are you referring to 2Q fiscal or 3Q fiscal?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we will be launching as and when the approval is there. So we have a tentative. We will be obviously waiting for a final approval. And then at the -- and once -- and we will launch in the next wave that is planned for. Exact dates and months I can't give you, but it is in the near term.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystOkay. Wonderful. And Sharvil, you mentioned that there are some more high-value launches in the second half. Anything that you can share on that?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think it's difficult to give a product-wise detail, but it is a combination of products that we want to launch, which will be important for -- in terms of our new product launches other than Revlimid.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystOkay. And finally, how does fiscal '24 look like for U.S. pipeline?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we continue to file 30 plus -- 30 to 35 plus ANDAs in the U.S. We believe we have a pipeline that -- through which we will launch 30 to 35 new launches every year. And so we are still very -- from our current expectation point of view, still very buoyant about the next couple of years for U.S. launches. And we have also obviously factored in the incremental competition that will come with Asacol. But with what we have planned, we hope that we'll be able to grow our business despite that in FY '24.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystYou'll grow your business despite the Asacol competition in fiscal, you said '23?
Sharvil Patel
executiveFiscal '24. And '23 also. But fiscal '24.
Sameer Baisiwala
analystOkay, it is then the full year impact would be there. Okay, got it.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Divyang Shah. Divyang, please unmute yourself.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeI'm from DD Enterprise. It's my private firm. I'm the shareholder in the company. Sir, my first question is the recent U.S. FDA visit was there, was it a surprise visit or it was invited by the company? And the second one is like now the observations are there. So if we remark the observations within a stipulated time. So after then, once again, visit is going to be there or like they can approve and the Moraiya facility can get a full clean chit on the U.S. FDA?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I think on the latest updates with the U.S. FDA most of the inspections that do occur now are surprise. So that's, I think, the stated way the audits have happened. So these are not planned audits, but surprise audits that happen for all plants in India and globally. Beyond that, I think what I had said that from our observations point of view, we will respond in the stipulated time given to us. And because the site is underway, we believe we would have some discussion before which -- before that we -- will be very difficult for us to say what would be the next steps, but we do believe that we can respond to these observations in the stipulated time.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And sir, the other question was like, are we fully on track for achieving the 18% or the 20% margin for the current year also? And the second question, like in the U.S., many other pharma companies got the sales or the margin pressures due to the price increase in the U.S. So does we got impacted on that basis or not?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we have stated whether for FY '23, we will have 20-plus percent margins from whatever we have [indiscernible] ourselves. And in terms of U.S., yes, there has been price erosion for us also. But because of volume expansion as well as new product launches, we have been able to still grow quarter-on-quarter.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. Next question is from Naveen. Okay. We'll go to the next one. Next question is from Prakash Agarwal.
Prakash Agarwal
analystYes. Just one on the presentation that you have put in, talks about ForEx. So I'm just trying to understand how sitting in other operating income to the extent of INR 108 crores, could you elaborate? And sorry if you've already done that, I joined a bit late.
Unknown Executive
executiveBecause that refers to the sales. That on the sales when we book the sales, we book at going right on a particular date when we realize, obviously, the rate is changed. So that is a part of the sales only, and that is why that is classified as other operating income.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. And in terms of hedges, do you -- do we carry any hedges and at what rates?
Unknown Executive
executiveSo we have some forward contracts that we have entered into. One is for the loan that we have given to own subsidiary. And it was more in terms of trying to get the arbitrage opportunity between rupee interest rate and the forward cover rate. So they were more certain in terms of the gains. Otherwise, we don't have any kind of forwards.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. And everything is natural hedge, basically, the cost and [indiscernible]?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. And second question is on -- for Sharvil. On the R&D side, with 2 large programs in the U.S., when do we see the inflection point in terms of cost increasing? Or we will have a fine balance in terms of R&D budget of 7% to 8% that we are having?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo for us, we expect that R&D investments to remain on an average of around 8% of revenue over the next 3 years. There could be some lumpiness, but the best guidance for us would be that around 8% of revenue over the next 3 years.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. And lastly, on the India business, I think you mentioned ex of COVID, it's 6% and -- or 9%? And are we over that lump now going into Q2?
Sharvil Patel
executiveIt's 9%.
Prakash Agarwal
analystDomestic formulations?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes, ex COVID it's 9% year-on-year growth.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. And moving forward for this quarter on a like-to-like basis, reported basis, we see a normalized growth, right?
Sharvil Patel
executiveI think we would have had some sale in July, but by and large, it would be a normalized growth.
Prakash Agarwal
analystOkay. Which we expect for the remaining 9 months to be double-digit plus mid-teens or something?
Sharvil Patel
executiveI think we'll grow as per market is our best estimate right now.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Harith Ahamed.
Harith Mohammed
analystMy first question is on biosimilars. When I look at our peers, most of them have 1 or 2 assets at least at various stages of development in the regulated markets, while our focus so far seems to be on the emerging markets. So can you elaborate a bit on your thought process and the different strategies that we are adopting when it comes to biosimilars in regulated markets?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo today, from our point of view, our strategy, we believe, is -- currently, we have a pipeline of 13 marketed products in India and 9 biosimilars that are under development. From the commercial standpoint, we are currently wanting to be a strong, meaningful player in India. And followed by that, a good presence in some of the key emerging markets which we want to build for. For the developed markets, the outlay on the clinical spend and the regulatory time lines, including the IP time lines and all are very long. And for that, we have decided that for some of these, we will be looking at a much later launch time lines of maybe '27, '28 and beyond. So currently, our immediate focus is only India and emerging markets. But meaningfully, we are developing 1 or 2 products from the global development point of view, including developed markets, but they're far later in terms of the horizon.
Harith Mohammed
analystGot it. And one question on your guidance of 20% margins for FY '23. And you also talked about a generic Revlimid launch in the near term. And you also talked about your expectation of further competition in Asacol as only towards the end of the year. So with the generic Revlimid contributing for almost half the year, and looking at our 1Q margins of already at 20%, don't you think there is upside to this guidance of 20%?
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo. So as if all of those things work out as planned, yes, there is definitely an upside. But I think looking risk adjusting to whatever we believe in terms of the business mix and also the volatility that exists. I think we believe that to sustain 20-plus percent margins is comfortable. But obviously, there could be upside depending on market dynamics or competition changes.
Harith Mohammed
analystAnd last one on this segment, which you classify as alliances on your segment you [indiscernible] revenues. What exactly is the nature of this business? Who are the partners here? And which are the geographies to which we supply under this?
Sharvil Patel
executiveThese are long-standing joint ventures or partnerships that we have had. One is with Pfizer, and it's a manufacturing partnership or some exclusive products for Pfizer to commercialize for them in the different markets, which has been a long-standing partnership. And the other one is partnership with Takeda, which is for intermediates and APIs for their global requirements and use both for off-patent molecules and for their patented molecules.
Harith Mohammed
analystSo the Takeda partnership is part of revenue. It's not accounted as an associate? It's included as part of our revenues the [indiscernible]
Sharvil Patel
executiveWe are on 50-50 joint venture there.
Unknown Executive
executive50%.
Sharvil Patel
executive50%.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Damayanti.
Damayanti Kerai
analystAm I audible?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes.
Damayanti Kerai
analystThis is Damayanti from HSBC Securities. So my first question is now Moraiya has seen FDA inspection. So can you update us on your transformer opportunities? How should we look at them, whether you need to redo your -- some of studies, which you have done earlier? Or when like -- when we should be expecting first launch post-Moraiya clearance?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo in Moraiya, we have 5 products that we have filed for transdermals. 4 out of the 5 products are being held for approval because of the warning letter, which means that all other product-related queries and regulatory queries have been resolved. So with -- once we are able to clear our regulatory compliance on Moraiya, we believe that we can have approvals for about 4 products. The exact time line would be very difficult to give because first, we need to clear a regulatory hurdle and then go through the product clearance space.
Unknown Executive
executiveJust for one verification, alliances actually refer to certain out-licensing deals and global contract manufacturing because we don't include now sales of the [ juris ].
Unknown Executive
executiveThat's what I was [indiscernible] profits.
Unknown Executive
executiveOnly profits.
Damayanti Kerai
analystOkay. So Dr. Sharvil out of 5, you are confident that once the warning letter is lifted for the facility, you should be getting approval for those products in reasonable time frame?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes, because most of the -- it is only stuck for 3 GMP clearance. So once we get that clearance, we believe they can move into the clearance phase. But the exact time line is not yet able to be -- I can't predict that yet.
Damayanti Kerai
analystSure. And my second question is a few quarters back, we used to discuss opportunities from vaccine. Can you update on that segment, please?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes. So on the vaccines front, we have 2 -- so currently, we believe there are 3 important vaccines, which we have already commercialized and have good value to be created. One is the rabies vaccine, which we already are in market for multiple years. Then we have the typhoid conjugate vaccine and the quadrivalent and flu vaccine. These are vaccines where we want to build for business. Also recently, with our approvals on the MR vaccine also, we believe that between typhoid conjugate and MR vaccine, this will be the critically large opportunities for us for both India and the -- once 2 prequalified for the other global tenders that come out for these 2 vaccines. Followed by that, I think there are niche vaccines like the varicella vaccine, hepatitis E vaccines, which are much longer term in nature, but those are also important vaccines for our development. And on the private market side, the quadrivalent flu vaccine become -- is a good vaccine because it has -- we are the only Indian generic on that. So it helps us in terms of differentiating.
Damayanti Kerai
analystSure. And any number in terms of sales expectations, which you would like to share? Like 2, 3 years down the line, how big this business can grow if everything goes as per the plan?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we expect significant contribution from this vertical around 3 years down the line when a couple of vaccines like the [ TCV and MRR ] WHO prequalified, and we are able to participate in the global tenders.
Damayanti Kerai
analystAny number which you'd like to put?
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo, we are -- we aim for a 10% to 15% market share to be taken in these vaccines, but the number is not estimatable right now because it will depend on the timing and the pricing and the quantities.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Anubhav Sahu.
Anubhav Sahu
analyst[indiscernible]
Operator
operatorAnubhav, we are not able to hear you. Can you please..
Anubhav Sahu
analystIs it better now?
Operator
operatorYes, it's better, but it's still not clear.
Anubhav Sahu
analystOkay. Let me...
Operator
operatorAnubhav can you come back again fixing this audio?
Anubhav Sahu
analystOkay, sir.
Operator
operatorTill that time, we'll take the next question from Surya Patra.
Surya Patra
analystAnd the first question is on the domestic -- sorry, U.S. business, the sequential growth -- sequential as well as Y-o-Y growth what we have witnessed, is it, by any chance, led by the volume pulls and the cost of realizations.
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo.
Surya Patra
analystOkay. Because what I'm trying to understand here is that the sequential correction in the gross margin, while the consumer business -- for consumer business, it is a strong season. And for the domestic formulation business, as you mentioned, that the branded business has done well. And U.S. is also progressing, right? Then what would have impacted the gross margin? So more than 250 basis points sequentially.
Sharvil Patel
executiveI think, one, before Nitin gives you an answer on the gross margin, in the U.S., our business model that we have been strictly following is that we don't sell products at losses or at very low margins. We are very clear. Every product has a clear P&L, and we are driven by making sure that every product P&L is healthy or at least profitable. And so I don't think we make those compromises on product by product by looking at portfolio. So that is just a clarification in terms of we don't do business in that manner for volume. Other than that, the overall mix point of view, Nitin will take that.
Nitin Parekh
executiveSo Surya, there are 3 things. One is that domestic formulation business in reported terms in this quarter has a degrowth over 17%, which obviously is a high gross margin business. The proportion of business effects. That is one part. Secondly, talk of Zydus wellness, Zydus wellness, obviously, has a much higher growth in this quarter being a season. But Zydus Wellness on a business portfolio basis also has a lower GC than my overall GC. And third is that the essential business like Zydus wellness is affected by input cost also like milk prices and palm oil prices apart from some other cost increases, including, let's say, freight inward cost.
Surya Patra
analystOkay. Sir, is it possible to give some color to the -- what kind of outlook that one should have on the GC side -- gross margin side?
Sharvil Patel
executiveI think we can give an EBITDA kind of outlook, which we have clearly said that we will be 20% plus for FY '23. I think gross margin is a question of product mix and business mix, which. And the margins to -- gross margins to net margins also vary. So I don't think -- I think that is the best way to assume the current next 2 to 3 quarters.
Surya Patra
analystSure, sir. Second question is on the domestic formulation business. So obviously, we are seeing a kind of a -- generally trend of moderation for the industry from the high base of COVID now. So -- and also simultaneously, we have seen many of the leading Indian peers are either expanding or filled force or kind of building something like that on the filled force side. So there is a -- if this is a kind of a trend, then there is an enhanced competition likely to be? So given that scenario, what is the general outlook for the industry as well as for you for the domestic business that you were anticipating?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo I agree to that extent that the Indian-branded generics has always been very competitive. There is a high degree of competition in the category. And I think every company has a strategy in terms of what they try to follow. For us, I think the -- on the short-term side, we want to grow as per market because there is so much volatility that exists. But in the midterm, our plans from our investments that we are making, we believe we want -- we will grow better than market in the coming years. And that's mainly driven by, obviously, our differentiated portfolio that we have, both on the small molecule side, which are IP protected as well as the biosimilars. Our entry into first-to-India launches for off-patent molecules, which has happened in the diabetes and cardiovascular play space, which has allowed us to gain good traction in these 2 therapies. And our continued effort on some of the therapies like respiratory, women's health and others, where we are trying to reinforce our position where we are there. We're also utilizing capabilities on the digital side to expand our reach, both in terms of the patient doctor reach as well as the distribution reach for many of our established brands. And also build on to the growing organized sectors in terms of hospitals, the tenders that are there and also the e-commerce players who are able to take some share in the segment. So all of that will lead to our plans for the growth -- or the growth drivers for the domestic business.
Surya Patra
analystOkay. Sir, just one more question on this finance cost side. So having seen the deleveraging throughout last year. Still, the finance cost seems flat. It has not corrected. Anything on that side, whether it is because of the consumer business contributing a significant chunk in this quarter, that is why the number looks elevated? Or this is the kind of a run rate? So basically, the benefit of the finance revising that is not visible.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo Surya, what has happened that only towards the end of the quarter, we have repaid some debt. And -- but that is what you will be able to see in a gross debt position between 2 dates -- 2 quarter ends. Otherwise, we were using that as a treasury. So there is an increase in other income that you can see, which is largely related to interest income and some profit on sale of investment like mutual funds investment. So on the net basis, because we found that we were having a low-interest regime, it made sense for us rather than to repay the debt to use that as a rate income because in over terms, we found that as a beneficial position. Obviously, things are now going to change with increase in interest rates.
Surya Patra
analystYes. Okay. Sure. Just last, one single, sir. On the Moraiya side, what is the current utilization of that facility, sir?
Sharvil Patel
executiveMoraiya, it's a very well utilized facility. So -- and as I always said, other than transdermals, we do have launches, but not too many launches now planned out of Moraiya. So most of our future launches are out of our other facilities in SEZ and our future SEZ2 facility. Moraiya is a higher -- I mean, utilized facility, about 65% to 70%, but it varies depending on the products.
Surya Patra
analystBut if the U.S. thing happens in terms of the profitability, whether it will have a kind of meaningful say?
Sharvil Patel
executiveI think the transdermals is the only one which is -- which was meaningful for us. Beyond that, it is business as usual.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Saion Mukherjee.
Saion Mukherjee
analystYes. Am I audible?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes.
Saion Mukherjee
analystI have a few questions. Firstly, on the U.S. business, can you share like what has been the price erosion year-on-year for your portfolio? And have you seen or have you discontinued any product? Have you come to a stage where the profitability has corrected so much that you decided to discontinue? So if you can throw some light as to how many of such products you've discontinued.
Sharvil Patel
executiveI won't have each product idea, but definitely, if the products are becoming unviable, we are leaving the market if we do not see any price improvement. And we have done that consistently. In fact, I mean, historically, I can talk, we had left the atenolol market, we left losartan, we have left HCQ and the markets turn -- whenever the markets change favorably, we were able to quickly enter these markets. So I think, as I said earlier, we run each U.S. business with each product as a P&L on its own and not as a portfolio. So we do get out of markets or don't go for any share if the margins are very low. So that's my overall view on the -- I can tell you, quarter-on-quarter, we have had a price erosion of 2.5%.
Saion Mukherjee
analystOkay. And Dr. Sharvil on the specialty efforts that you're making in the U.S. before saroglitazar gets approved over some time, how should we think about the scale of this business? You have a couple of rare disease assets. Do you think you need to add more to sort of make it sustainable? Any thoughts on the scale and profitability of this business from a next, say, 2, 3 years perspective?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo from the investment point of view, there would be further investments over the next 2 to 3 years. Currently, we have 2 assets in the ultra-rare disease front, which is the Nulibry and the Zycubo assets. These are important assets for the company in terms of creating a place in terms of pediatric orphan exclusive kind of products that we want to build towards, which will mean that we will continue to further license more products in this space. We first had done CUTX-101, which was Zycubo immediately in the next few quarters, we were able to get Nulibry. I think we have become a good partner in this field because this is a very niche, unique field to be in where you have to actually go and find patients. So I think for future opportunities in this, we would look to be an active licensing partner and then slowly scale this business up. None of these molecules on its own will become very large. But I think we can build an optimum business from the super specialty front through the Sentynl engine. On the -- for the saroglitazar, I think our estimates currently, we believe that we are at a '24 late filing and a '25 launch. So we are building towards that. And this year Phase IIb result will be out by end of this year, which will -- where we will be able to then see how aggressively we can push for a faster Phase III and also the opportunity that we can create.
Saion Mukherjee
analystAnd on the ultra-rare disease, so what is the optimal number of products you think you should have on this? You currently have 2, is it like 4, 5 and other opportunities you're seeing in the market? And do you see a good possibility of adding more products over the course of the next year or so?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo we are seeing 1 or 2 opportunities right now, and we are evaluating them in the pediatric space. So there are opportunities that are there. There is a lot of impetus globally on pushing for medicines for these ultra-rare diseases. So I think those will continue. But in the short term, I -- we are seeing about 1 to 2 opportunities that we are actively looking at.
Saion Mukherjee
analystOkay. Okay. And finally, one last question on the domestic market. I know you have a trade generics presence. Some of the peers are talking quite positively about this. So what are your thoughts? You're not pursuing this as an opportunity. If you can share your thoughts on trade generics in India?
Sharvil Patel
executiveNo. So we trade generic. We are, as you rightly said, are present in trade generics. Trade generics is definitely -- will be one avenue of growth, which is a completely different distribution kind of network that exists. And we do believe that as the market shifts or grows, we will also be able to capture growth there. Also, some of the very legacy old brands, which don't require a lot of sales promotion anymore or potential for being also driven by the trade generic side, either on the SKU level or the brand level. So all of those are things that we continue to evaluate. And we believe it will become a good business. It accounts -- it will account for 8% to 10% of our overall revenue, and we potentially can grow. So we will remain present in this category.
Saion Mukherjee
analystOkay. And how large is it today currently?
Sharvil Patel
executiveIt's about the 7 -- around the 7%.
Saion Mukherjee
analystOkay. 7% of the India formulation sales?
Sharvil Patel
executiveYes.
Operator
operatorWe will take the last question from Naveen.
Naveen Baid
analystCan you hear me, sir?
Operator
operatorYes.
Naveen Baid
analystYes. I just wanted to know what is the revenue outlook from your new Ahmadabad SEZ plant?
Sharvil Patel
executiveSo the new Ahmadabad SEZ plant has just started taking exhibit batches, which will then go for a U.S. FDA audit when possible. And then we'll launch commercialization. So there's no revenue driven out of that facility, and it will be at least 3 years out before we see a substantial manufacturing happening.
Operator
operatorThank you. I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
Ganesh Nayak
executiveThank you very much, and we look forward to interacting with you again in the month of November with our quarter 2 results. Thank you, and have a nice evening.
Operator
operatorThank you. On behalf of Zydus LifeSciences Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line and exit the webinar.
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