AB Electrolux (publ) (ELUXB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and a warm welcome to Electrolux Fourth Quarter 2021 Results Presentation. With me this morning, I have Therese Friberg, our CFO; and Sophie Arnius, our Head of Investor Relations. I would like to mention that this session is recorded and will be available on our website as an on-demand version. Let's look at our performance in 2021. I'm proud of our achievements in 2021. We had record sales and earnings, meeting or exceeding all of our financial targets and delivering strong profitable growth. Market demand was strong for the full year as consumers continued to invest in their homes. Demand remains above pre-pandemic levels, even though we saw a normalization in the second part of 2021. Organic sales growth for the year was over 14%. Our attractive product and brand offering continued to deliver an improved mix. And global consumer star ratings increased to 4.65 out of 5 in 2021, driven by well-accepted product innovations. We continue to grow our strategic aftermarket business in absolute numbers. It remained at 7% of group sales for the year, given our significant growth in total net sales. We strengthened the direct-to-consumer platform, with opportunities to further interact directly with consumers. We're now active in nearly 40 markets by the end of 2021, and we're scaling up the business in many of those markets. We successfully offset significant cost inflation through strong price execution. Supply chain situation was increasingly challenging during the year. And through hard work, we had -- to mitigate that impact, it limited our ability to fully meet the high consumer demand, both in terms of volumes and mix. The constraints also generated significant increased costs. In this dynamic environment, we delivered an EBIT, excluding nonrecurring items, of SEK 7.5 billion, with a margin of 6%. And we saw EBIT and margin increases across all business areas. In addition to the ordinary dividend of SEK 8 per share, we made an additional cash distribution of SEK 17 per share and repurchased over 4 million shares for SEK 900 million. The Board proposes the 2022 AGM to resolve on our dividend for 2021 of SEK 9.20 per share and to resolve on cancellation of all shares of Series B that Electrolux owned as per December 31, 2021, and to renew the mandate to acquire our own shares. The Board intends to thereafter initiate a new share buyback program for approximately SEK 2.5 billion. Additional details on the intended buyback program will be communicated as and when decided. So if we then move into the fourth quarter specifically. Demand declined in most markets in the fourth quarter compared to a strong development last year, with the normalization still above pre-pandemic levels. Retailers inventory levels are in general normal with some imbalances, with the exception of North America, where the levels are assessed to be still below. We had organic sales growth of 4.8%, and compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, was over 23%. The growth was driven by strong price realization across the business areas, mainly driven by list price increases implemented during the previous quarters. Through price, we managed to offset the significant cost inflation in raw material as well as in electronic components and logistics. The challenging situation from a supply chain perspective continued in the quarter, impacting volumes and mix, but also resulting in additional costs. In addition to the ongoing cost inflation, which was fully offset by price, we also faced more temporary costs, such as spot buys and more air freight as well as production inefficiencies due to limited planning visibility. We estimate the impact on production output to be on the same level in the fourth quarter as in the third quarter, while the cost for spot buys and express freight have increased compared to the third quarter. As in the third quarter, particularly our North American business area was affected since the congestion at important U.S. ports amplify the constraint -- supply constraints. Operating income amounted to SEK 1.6 billion or 4.5% of net sales. Therese will now walk us through the main drivers behind the change in operating income.

Yes. We had a strong contribution from the organic sales growth in the quarter. And as Jonas mentioned, we continued to have very good price execution from list price increases implemented during the year. And the promotional discounts remained at a very low level as it has been for the past year. Our attractive product and brand offering continued to generate a positive mix despite the limitations from the supply and logistics constraints, and we increased aftermarket sales. Volumes declined following a demand normalization compared to a strong fourth quarter last year. In addition, the global supply and logistic constraints impacted product availability negatively and resulted in difficulties to fully meet the underlying market demand. Our investments in consumer experience innovation and marketing increased to support strategic growth initiatives. Cost efficiency was negative. The supply chain constraints resulted in production inefficiencies due to low planning visibility as well as increased cost for logistics and electronic component, with additional temporary costs for airfreight and component spot buys further deteriorating the cost performance, as mentioned before. Price was offsetting the significant headwind from external factors, mainly driven by raw material as well as cost inflation in electronic components and logistics. And the later cost inflation is included in cost efficiency definition aligned with our previous methodology. Let's also look -- take a brief look at the EBIT bridge for the full year. We made a record year in terms of both sales and EBIT with a significant organic contribution. We had very strong price development with well-executed list price increases during the year across all business areas, and promotions continued to be on a very low level. Price was offsetting the significant cost inflation in raw material, electronic components, and logistics as well as currency headwinds. We continued to deliver on mix across business areas. And this was partly through continued growth in aftermarket sales. Volumes increased for the year, which was driven by the significant increase in the first half of the year. In the second half, volumes declined compared to a strong second half in 2020 as demand started to normalize. And in addition, supply chain constraints amplified the decline through impacted product availability. We increased our investments in innovation and marketing, partly in relation to significant reduction last year following the market situation, but partly also to further support strategic growth initiatives. Cost efficiency was negative for the year as we had accelerating costs related to supply chain constraints, partly mitigated by continuous efficiency gains. And we had significant headwinds from external factors, mainly driven by raw material, but also an unfavorable currency development. Let's take a deeper look at price and mix development, focusing on the fourth quarter. The EBIT margin accretion for the group from price and mix in the quarter was 6.2 percentage points, mainly from a very strong price execution, but also mix developed favorably. And in Europe, we had a positive price development, driven by list price increases implemented during the year, including in the fourth quarter. Mix was flat in the quarter compared to a strong development last year, but also negatively impacted by supply chain constraints, especially in Laundry. In North America, price continued to develop strongly from list price increases implemented earlier in the year. But also additional increases in the fourth quarter started to have an effect towards the end of the year, and promotional discounts remained at a very low level. Mix was slightly positive despite the supply and logistics constraints, which specifically impacted our premium products produced in Juarez in Mexico. In Latin America, contribution from price was strong, driven by list price increases implemented in previous quarters. Promotional activity increased slightly, driven by the softer consumer demand. And mix was slightly positive despite consumers mixing down in a relatively weak Brazilian market. In Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, price was favorable, driven by list price increases implemented in previous quarters, and mix continued to improve. Sales from premium cooking products in Australia, a strong performance of our AEG brand in China and successful product launches in Egypt are some of the highlights I would like to mention here. An attractive product and brand offering is essential for our profitable growth. And Jonas will now give you some concrete examples on what we do.

Thank you, Therese. I'd like to really recommend you to read our Ks in the fourth quarter report, regarding the launch of our new Electrolux range in Australia, where we launched the concept of ‘Swedish thinking. Better living.’ in 2019. This is a complete new premium range of Electrolux products across the home. And we're strongly emphasizing the Swedish heritage and our credibility around sustainability, which we know Australian consumers are responding extremely favorably, too. Our Electrolux branded sales in Australia have grown CAGR 6% since 2019 and EBIT has grown with a CAGR of 27%. When it comes to recent examples of successful product launches, I'd like to mention our new AEG-branded extractor hob models that we launched in Germany in Q4. These are our first in-house produced induction hobs with integrated extractor fan that allows much more freedom when planning your kitchen while still removing fumes and odors efficiently. They also have flexible cooking zones and an -- offer a connected experience for filter maintenance with notifications and remote fan control. We previously did not have in-house kitchen fan production. And we added that a few years ago with the acquisition of Best. And with this in-house production, we can offer more premium features in this segment, benefiting from innovations for induction hobs. We will also be able to bring a complete range, including different sizes in the coming years, also with reducing -- while reducing cost. Another benefit for kitchen retailers is that it's much easier to install, both compared to our previous models which were sourced and with less than half of the installation steps, but also compared to other brands. During the first quarter of 2022, the hobs will be launched in additional European markets, and an Electrolux brand version will be available by Q2. By the end of the year, we also plan to bring it to APAC, EMEA. So these are some examples of how we drive profitable growth.

And if we then take a look at our cash flow. The operating cash flow for the quarter amounted to SEK 2.1 billion and the full year ended at SEK 3.2 billion. Looking at the full year, we did not repeat the very strong cash flow that we delivered in 2020, mainly related to an increase in inventory compared to last year's unusually low level. The global supply chain constraints impacted inventory levels through supply-demand mismatches, cost inflation and increased time in transit. And in the fourth quarter, the second of 2 installments for the 2020 dividend payment of SEK 8 per share and an extra cash distribution of SEK 17 per share through an automatic redemption procedure were distributed to shareholders, impacting our cash flow by SEK 1.2 billion and SEK 4.9 billion, respectively. And in addition, shares of Series B were repurchased for a total amount of SEK 0.9 billion. We also acquired the remaining 50% part of the headquarter building for approximately SEK 1 billion.

Let's now go into our business areas performance in Q4, starting with Europe. We had organic sales growth of 1.9%, driven by positive price development, and we see good traction from these list price increases. Supply chain constraints continued to impact product availability, both volumes and mix, and especially within Laundry. Volumes declined compared to a strong last year, while mix remained flat. And we kept our value market share and further improved our consumer star ratings, with review volumes at the highest level so far. Aftermarket sales continued to grow. EBIT declined where, price increase is fully compensated for the significant higher raw material costs, but could not offset all of the cost inflation in electronic components and logistics. Further price increases were announced, to be implemented during the first quarter of 2022. In Europe, it takes a bit longer for price increases to come through due to the market structure. Additional costs for spot price of electronics and for increased use of air freight related to supply chain constraints continued to impact earnings negatively. Let's look at the European market. In the fourth quarter, overall market demand in Europe declined by 6%. This is compared to a strong quarter last year, but the supply constraints also continued to impact producers' ability to fully meet the underlying demand. Western Europe declined by 9%, while demand in Eastern Europe increased by 1%. Even with consumer spending patterns continuing to normalize in the fourth quarter, demand was still above pre-pandemic levels. Compared to the fourth quarter 2019, demand increased by 5% as the trend of increased consumer spending on home improvements remained. Let's continue with our business area, North America. We had organic sales growth of 4.4%, but a decline in EBIT. The organic sales growth was mainly driven by our list price increases. And through price, we could offset the significant cost inflation that we continued to have, both in raw material, electronics and logistics. We've also announced additional price increases being implemented during the first quarter of 2022. Our operation was heavily impacted by the constrained global supply environment as the congestion at important U.S. ports remained. Volumes declined, while mix was slightly positive. Our more premium laundry and refrigeration products produced in Juarez, Mexico, were especially affected. In addition to cost inflation that was offset by price, the constraints also resulted in additional cost increases for more airfreight, spot buys of electronic component and production efficiency -- inefficiency caused by limited planning visibility. High absenteeism due to the coronavirus also impacted earnings negatively. We're progressing with our investment program and closed the legacy Anderson factory at the end of the quarter. EBIT included a nonrecurring cost of SEK 727 million, relating to an arbitration in the U.S. tariff case on washing machines imported into the U.S. from Mexico in 2016, '17. A tariff rate of 72.41% was set after Electrolux's prior external counsel failed to timely file responses to request for data. For comparison, the final rate since 2016, '17 have been around 2% and 4% -- between 2% and 4%. Electrolux will pursue appropriate legal action to recover the amount of the increased tariff rate and other costs from its prior counsel. Looking at the U.S. market. Industry shipments of core appliances in the U.S. were in line with the strong quarter last year, especially Laundry had a very favorable development. Consumer spending on home improvement remained on a high level. And compared to the fourth quarter 2019, industry shipments increased by 11%, this despite supply constraints limiting producers' ability to fully meet underlying market demand. Housing indicators continued to be positioned to drive growth. And market demand for all major appliances, including microwave ovens and home comfort products increased by 2% year-over-year. Let's move on to Latin America. We had organic growth of 11.9% in the quarter. The growth was fully driven by price increases implemented in previous quarters. Overall consumer demand for the region is estimated to have declined. This was driven by Brazil, where higher general inflation negatively impacted consumers' purchasing power compared to last year when government's stimulus measures had a positive impact on demand. Brazil, being our main market in Latin America, this resulted in lower volumes, but also impacted mix negatively as consumers mix down. Promotional activity increased slightly, driven by weaker consumer demand. In the 2 other key markets, Argentina and Chile, consumer demand increased. In Argentina, this was in comparison to a very weak market last year, while in Chile, it was driven by the government incentives boosting the economy. However, demand declined in all 3 markets towards the end of the quarter. And aftermarket sales continued to increase. EBIT declined compared to last year. In addition to the volume decrease, earnings were negatively impacted by the increased cost for spot buys of components and airfreight relating to the supply chain constraints. Price increases fully compensated for cost inflation, mainly raw material and currency. And new list price increases were announced, to be implemented during the first quarter of 2022. Investments in brand strengthening initiatives and marketing increases. Finally, turning to Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa. It delivered profitable growth in the quarter. Organic sales growth was 6.7% and EBIT increased with close to a double-digit margin in the quarter. This was driven by a continued mix improvements. And it's great to see that our launches are successful, and that we're growing our AEG business in China. And at the same time, we've increased aftermarket sales. In Southeast Asia however, supply chain constraints impacted the ability to fully drive mix. Price and volumes are also contributing to our organic growth. Overall market demand in the region is estimated to have increased as pandemic restrictions eased. Market demand in Australia was in line with a strong quarter last year, an increase compared to the fourth quarter 2019. Also, continuous cost improvements contributed to earnings. Price increases could not fully offset significant cost inflation in raw materials, logistics and electronics components as well as an unfavorable currency effect. New list price increases were announced, to be implemented during the first quarter of 2022. So let's turn to our market outlook. Looking into 2022, we expect demand levels to be above pre-pandemic levels as people are likely to continue to invest in their homes. We assessed market demand in terms of value to increase in all regions in 2022. However, compared to strong 2021 levels, we don't expect demand growth in terms of units in all regions. Global supply chain constraints are expected to continue to impact the industry's ability to fully meet demand, with regional variances limiting availability of certain product categories. Specifically, electronic components with semiconductors are in very tight supply globally. And shortages of containers and vessels and unloading backlogs at major ports result in varying and intermittent supply. Let's look at our 2022 volume demand view for the specific regions. European market shipments are expected to be flat compared to a strong 2021. In the second half of '21, consumer spending patterns started to normalize but are above pre-pandemic levels. We still see a supportive trend from the replacement market, driven by consumer confidence and continued focus on home improvement. However, inflation, higher interest rates as well as current geopolitical tensions could impact consumption negatively. In North America, demand is estimated to be positive for the full year, partly driven by a strong housing market, solid consumer confidence and the labor market coming back to pre-pandemic levels. The replacement cycle is supportive, and we see a shortening of the cycle due to increased usage during the pandemic. Inflation is soaring to historically high levels are a concern though, and uncertainty regarding the coronavirus may negatively impact consumer confidence. In Latin America, we expect consumer demand for 2022 to be negative, driven by Brazil and Chile. In Brazil, which is our main market in Latin America, we see higher general inflation, negatively impacting consumers' purchasing power. In addition, reduction of consumer aid -- on government aids, combined with increasing nominal interest rates, also contributed to the negative demand view we have for Brazil. In Chile, demand for 2021 was fueled by government incentives, and we don't expect the same magnitude in 2022. In Argentina, consumer demand growth is expected to continue in '22, but we have to bear in mind that it is from a weak baseline from several years that is starting to catch up. Ongoing pandemic-related uncertainty remains a key risk to the outlook. And finally, we estimate market demand in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa region to be positive for the full year '22. In general, we see underlying consumer demand being solid. And the uncertainty is mainly around potential pandemic restrictions, which in 2021 impacted consumer spending negatively. In Southeast Asia, which is a large market for us in the region, we expect demand growth, even though not yet at 2019 levels due to lower consumer purchasing power. For Australia, which is our other large market, we anticipate fairly flat demand in '22 compared to a strong 2021. Let's then look at our business outlook. I'm pleased with our achievements where the -- step by step we have consistently improved earnings quality through a clear strategy for driving profitable growth, through providing the right type of innovation and a well-established brand to our target consumers, and delivering these products with high quality and being cost efficiently produced. I'm also proud of how we've managed the market volatility during the 2 pandemic years, showing efficiency and agility. These are key success factors also going forward as the pandemic continues into 2022, and with that, a dynamic environment. In '21, the combined contribution from volume, price and mix to operating income was nearly SEK 9 billion. We expect this organic year-over-year contribution to be even higher in 2022, mainly driven by price, but also increased sales of innovative high-margin products and aftermarket solutions. Prices are main tool to offset cost inflation, and we have a strong track record of successfully doing this. Lately, in 2021, when we faced significant cost inflation, but also looking at a longer period, such as the last 4 years, which have all been characterized by high cost inflation, including the currency headwinds. We're committed to offset cost inflation also in 2022. Just to be clear on what we mean with cost inflation, it comprises 2 parts: first, external factors, which include raw material, currency, tariffs and excess labor inflation; second, the cost inflation in electronic components and logistics, which is included in cost efficiency in our business outlook. Starting with external factors. We expect for the full year a negative headwind in the range of SEK 6 million to SEK 9 billion, mainly driven by raw material. We see higher prices across the board when it comes to commodities, and especially steel, which account for more than 50% of our raw material spend. Last year, the cost inflation we faced in the early part was much lower than at the end of 2021. The constrained global supply environment has resulted in cost inflation, especially for logistics and ocean freight, but also for electronic components. As we're committed to fully offset the cost inflation with price also for the full year 2022, we're in the middle of implementing further list price increases in early '22 in all business areas, adding to those we already implemented in '21. Our attractive product range and well-established brands are key to continue to be successful. However, we don't expect price to fully cover for the cost inflation already in the first quarter as there is always a time lag in pricing implementation. If we shift focus from price to the other 2 levers within organic contribution, we expect the combined contribution from volume and mix to be positive for the full year. '22 will be our most intense product launch year ever, partly enabled by our reengineering program. And this gives us confidence that consumer demand for our products will remain healthy and provides us with great platform to drive mix improvement. We aim to invest more in innovation and marketing to support these launches, but also to strengthen our digital capabilities in terms of consumer interaction. In recent years, mix improvements have contributed an average of SEK 1 billion to operating income per year. Global supply chain constraints are however expected to continue to negatively impact our ability to fully drive volume and mix, especially in the first half of the year. From mid-'22, we expect sequential improvements with regard to the overall supply chain situation. We're collaborating closely with our suppliers to mitigate these constraints. But we estimate that the first quarter will be at least as challenging as the fourth quarter in '21, with significant risks of disruptions relating to the resurgence of the coronavirus. Lockdowns in important ports in China as well -- as we have seen lately, adds to the uncertainty. This is where sourcing a significant number of components from China. The supply chain constraints also resulted in significantly higher costs for airfreight and spot buys of electronic components in the second half of '21 year-over-year. And we estimate this to also be the case in the first quarter of '22. Another source of uncertainty is potential production disruptions due to absenteeism relating to coronavirus.

As Jonas mentioned, cost competitive, high-quality products are vital to drive profitable growth. Beyond the cost and quality benefits of highly automated production of modularized products, it also gives us the opportunity to introduce new innovations based on new technologies at a much faster pace. And this is what our SEK 8 billion reengineering program that we are in the middle of is all about. In the fourth quarter of 2021, we started the ramp-up in 3 additional factories: Springfield, Susegana and Sao Carlos, on top of Anderson and Curitiba that are already up and running. And we closed the legacy Anderson factory. During 2021, we shifted the production capacity in the new Anderson and Springfield factories towards more premium products than initially planned. This is positive overall for the return on the investments as it involves a shift to further improved mix from cost savings. Looking specifically at the line cost efficiency, we expect it to be negative for the year. This, as the cost savings we expect from the reengineering program in 2022, will only partly offset the cost inflation on logistics and components. We will also see an increase in depreciation as we are continuing to start up additional production lines and new product platforms in our new investments. Investments to strengthen our competitiveness through innovation, automation and modularization continues in 2022. And total capital expenditures are estimated to be approximately SEK 8 billion. The increase compared to 2021 relates mainly to some timing of investments from 2021 and raw material inflation on equipment.

So to sum up the quarter and the strategic drivers we've delivered on. I'm pleased with our continued strong price execution across our business areas, fully offsetting the significant cost inflation we currently face. As we're determined to offset accelerating cost headwinds also in '22, we're also implementing further price increases in the first quarter. We continued to drive mix in the quarter despite the supply-constrained environment. This is very encouraging as innovation is key in our profitable growth strategy and shows that consumers find our products and brands highly attractive. In the quarter, I'm also very pleased that we started to ramp up in the 3 additional factories within our SEK 8 billion reengineering program, further strengthening our platform to drive mix through innovative desirable products. With that, I leave the word to Sophie.

Thank you, Jonas. We will now open up for questions. [Operator Instructions] So with that, moderator, please go ahead.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Moore with Redburn.

Yes. My question is around your external factor guidance. And I wondered if you could help us with your assumptions behind this, and particularly on raw materials, whether you're using current spot prices or something different and forward prices, or you're assuming they come down or they accelerate further. Because there's a lot of moving parts here, it would be helpful for us to have some idea of the sensitivity. And also, within that line, I believe you have labor inflation, over 2%. Can you give us a feel as to whether you're assuming 3% or 4% or 5%? That would be very helpful.

Sure. So we've now concluded contracts on most of our raw materials. So we're basing the outlook on our current contracted prices for steel and plastics and so on. And I would say, more than usual, we're using some pricing mechanisms, particularly for the second half of the year, for several of our contracts. So the range -- I guess, wider than usual range that we provided in the outlook is mainly related to that -- those pricing mechanism giving upside and downside compared to our current contracted prices. And the most significant headwind by far that we see in the year is steel. Also plastics, which has accelerated quite a bit recently. And then the excess labor inflation is a relatively minor part of the total headwind. And of course, it's a fairly broad range between different markets, where some markets are quite inflationary with double-digit salary increases, whereas others, like in Central Europe, still are in that 2%, 3% range. So now that's relatively speaking, smaller part of the total headwind for the year. And also, currency is not a huge part of the headwind. So it's steel, plastics and a little bit of other stuff, other metals and so on.

And on the labor side?

Yes. No. As I said, it's -- in some markets, double-digits. In most of our core markets, it's substantially less than that.

Our next question comes from Johan Eliason with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes. I was wondering about this reengineering program, going back to this famous picture you showed now, I think it's 2 years ago on how these benefits would evolve. Are sort of those numbers still valid? Or has there been any delays or move forwards in that picture in terms of what you expected specifically from this reengineering program?

Yes. I mean, obviously, there were some delays that we have already also published, right? So beyond that, there are no significant delays. There's always things shifting around, but no significant delays beyond that. What has changed, of course, is the -- how we achieved the benefits of these programs because for the -- the obvious one is that our cost inflation has increased significantly, mainly in components, raw materials, logistics and also labor inflation. We're offsetting that through price for the most part. But more importantly, we're shifting the offer from these new programs to a more premium offering. We're seeing that the innovation focus that we had has actually been more successful than we had originally sort of dared to plan for. So we're shifting to more production of higher labor content, higher material content, premium product, which also generated a better mix and profitability. But the challenge is that with all of those changes back and forth, it becomes a little bit challenging for us to kind of show you how that tracks exactly against that graph that we showed with all these major changes. What I would say though is that our -- the overall return on investment through cost mix, price and volume is, if anything, better than what we had assumed in the cases that we showed a few years ago.

Excellent. And is this driven by your ambition to improve the margins going forward? Or is there also a change in the competitive environment that drives you to focus more on the premium segment?

Yes. No. I think the changes in the competitive environment are kind of ongoing and haven't really changed in a significant way in the last few years. What I would say is that, to your point, we are focusing more and more of our marketing spend, our innovation focus on driving mix, selling more of our higher-margin and more profitable products. And -- because it's more profitable for us, frankly, right, in total profit contribution rather than focusing on high-volume mass products. Because inside of a market or a brand, there's only so many things that you can focus on in any point in time. And we see it as more profitable and better in line with our strategic direction to focus more effort and sales effort and marketing effort and innovation on our premium products.

And since our premium products, specifically from the new Anderson facility, has also been extremely well received from the market and from the consumers, so yes, we also see a larger benefit of scaling up more of the premium products specifically from that facility.

Yes. I mean -- and this is a significant change. I mean, I don't want to underpin it either. If you look at the consumer star ratings that we showed in 2021 here of 4.65 out of 5, I mean that is, to a large extent, the consequence of the very successful premium products that we launched. Premium products typically carry a higher star rating, and we're mixing up in the perception of our consumers in a really, really strong way. And that's something we will continue to drive, of course.

Our next question comes from Andreas Willi with JPMorgan.

Yes. My question is on your North America business. Obviously, we know that you have some challenges there in terms of the factory transition you were going through and then the component situation and all of that thrown into it. But with kind of a 3% margin for the year, Whirlpool doing 18% in 2021, also having substantial challenges because, clearly, you can kind of exploit the situation of exceptional demand, and therefore, a very strong pricing. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what needs to happen in the U.S., and how confident you are that in a normal environment, you can start to close that gap to Whirlpool, and why the performance is so dramatically different in 2021?

Yes. I mean I -- first of all, we have a lot of upside in North America. That's clear, right? So as our new products are fully hitting the market, both from Anderson, but also our new cooking products that we're just in the process of launching. And we also have significant renewals of our other refrigeration products coming out of Anders. So we have really, as I said before, unprecedented number of launches coming our way. And as you said, unfortunately, a lot of that work has happened in the middle of the pandemic, which has resulted in very complex supply chains, managing all the new components, and in a situation with high absenteeism, difficult to get equipment suppliers on site. Yes, there has been, to your point, a lot of challenges during the pandemic in that transformation. Now the good news is that our factory in Anderson, I would say, is now complete in terms of the new manufacturing sector. We've closed the legacy factory. The new factory is fully up and running. And the products are extremely well received. We have still though in -- particularly in the Southeast U.S., very, very significant absenteeism a consequence of the pandemic and all the supply disruptions coming from port congestion and other things. And we've seen -- and this is, I think, another unfortunate but significant impact here in the second half of the year is that we've seen significant production losses in our most premium products in -- coming out of Mexico, both laundry and refrigeration product, really kind of putting us below potential. And I think the only thing that frankly needs to happen now is we continue to ramp up the new cooking products and we get a little bit more stability in terms of supply, then we can see a fairly rapid acceleration of our profitability in North America.

So you're not concerned about operational execution or other structural issues in terms of your ability to compete effectively in the market in terms of supply chain and just operational excellence and so on relative to your main competitor?

Not structurally. But definitely, let's say, temporarily during this very, very massive transition program in the middle of a pandemic, then yes, that was a major concern, but it's not a structural concern.

Our next question comes from Andre Kuhnnin from Credit Suisse.

Could you talk about mix for 2022? You said that this will be an unprecedented year in terms of new product launches. And you've averaged SEK 1 billion per annum for the last 4 years, you said. Should we expect that to be substantially higher then for 2022 given the new launches? Or is that more of like a cadence of it will be ramping up during 2022 to make the impacts fully ...?

Yes. I would say that -- no, I think the potential for mix is substantially higher in 2022. The only caveat they have is the electronic component availability, which could hamper that mix a little bit or potentially quite a bit actually. But we see very, very strong mix potential in '22.

Can I just ask, related to that, on the investment in consumer experience that kind of ratchet up from year to year, is there a level that we achieve as percentage of sales or an absolute that then is sufficient as an annual investment in this? Or should we think about this as something that does continue to ratchet up from year to year?

Well, on absolute, I think it would ratchet up from year to year. But as a percent of sales, I think there is, to your point, more of an optimal level. And we're not at that level right now. And we won't be in '22, either mainly as a consequence of the constrained environment that we're seeing, right? So we're -- there's no point in investing freely, let's say, in marketing in a situation where we're still supply constrained. So I think we can expect that to continue to increase, let's say, disproportionately as the -- we launched new products, and hopefully, the supply situation frees up. But then to your point, there is definitely an optimal level that we will get to.

Our next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

A question on, I guess, price cost cadence. And the -- as was noted earlier in the call, there's an awful lot of moving parts at this point. So from a modeling standpoint, I wonder if you can just help us think through how all of this price dynamic and cost dynamic comes together as we move through the 4 quarters of 2022. I think you were pretty clear about the fact that first quarter is going to reflect some of the lagging on price traction and -- for -- 1Q would look a little more like 4Q. But can you help us think through just as we move forward from there through 2Q, 3Q, 4Q, just how all this kind of comes into play and in terms of how we should think about the distribution of earnings for '22?

Sure. So I think the first thing to say is that we're now -- we talked about the fact that we're kind of back to the pre-pandemic seasonality of demand, if you will. Demand overall, I would say, is, as we've said, higher than pre-pandemic, on a higher trend line. But seasonality is more back to normal, let's say, so a weaker first half and a stronger second half. And particularly, the Q1 quarter is typically the weakest. Then if you look at then the cadence, to your question, around cost and price. So in Q4, we saw quite a significant acceleration of cost headwinds, not just raw material, but a lot of logistics and other cost headwinds. That's accelerating further into Q1 as we reset prices on a number of -- both raw materials and components at higher levels. So we see an incremental headwind in Q1 versus Q4. We're continuing at fairly high levels of express freight and so on in Q1, which we didn't have a year ago, but we did have in Q4. And then we're announced -- we have announced a lot of price increases. So we'll see positive price year-over-year, a substantial positive price in Q1, but not enough to fully offset for this significant cost headwinds. We have announced and are announcing as we speak pretty much further price increases kicking in, in early Q2. So we'll see a bit of a lag there and about a 1-quarter lag before we see that price fully sort of catching up to the full extent of the cost inflation, but we should see that from Q2 on. And then finally, we have the supply constraints, which are a -- difficult to predict but significant concern for us. We have a blooming COVID resurgence, as you're well aware. We're worried about Asian suppliers, Chinese supply in already congested ports, potential and actual current COVID lockdowns, Chinese New Year. It's a challenging first quarter from a supply situation given in this COVID environment. So yes, kind of tough situation on supply in the first quarter into Q2. But then sequentially, as we expect the COVID pandemic to subside and some of the imbalances in the global supply chains to straighten themselves out, even if it's still going to be a bit constrained, we see much better visibility in Q2 and particularly into second half of the year for good availability, strong price realization, considered -- continued fairly good consumer demand. So earnings will be most likely quite heavily balanced towards the second half of the year.

And just if I could follow up on that point. Just as it relates to pricing, you talked about 2022 would see the most comprehensive new product launch ever. And so I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that as a pricing contributor? And from a timing standpoint, is that more second half or is it more 2Q, 3Q? Or just how should we think about that?

No. That's continuous. And we started launching a lot of new products in the fall as we ramp up new factories. We're continuing to add new lines to those factories and launching new products as the year goes on. So it will strengthen as the year goes on. But the opportunity is significant. The challenge is, again, electronics availability, and particularly in the early part of the year, I think that will have a bit of a dampening effect on mix initially, and then we see an acceleration.

Our next question comes from Gustav Hageus with SEB.

I have a question on the SEK 9 billion in organic contribution to earnings or the SEK 9 billion plus that you referenced. Is it fair to assume that sort of a drop-through would be in the range of 75%, so that you're effectively guiding for 10% organic growth to top line or something like that? Is that a way to think about it?

It's a way to think about it. We don't guide on that, but I'll let you make that conclusion.

Okay. And on -- so CapEx guidance was quite high, SEK 8 billion. Given -- coming back to that initial question on the reengineering program and the profile of that, is this, as you view it today, sort of the peak year in terms of CapEx?

Yes. I mean, I think we're in the peak period, let's say, of CapEx. I think it will remain fairly high also in coming years. But yes, we're kind of in that peak period of new factory launches this year.

And if I can sneak in one last question. You referenced that part of that organic contribution will stem from increased aftermarket. You have previously said that your ambition was to reach 10% aftermarket sales by 2025, if I recall correctly. Could you give us an update on where you're at currently?

I mean, our growth in aftermarket sales is on plan. Our growth in finished goods sales is above plan. So that's why we didn't see any real sort of progression in '21 towards that target. But frankly, I will be happy to have a smaller number if the reason is that we continue to do extremely well on finished goods sales. So no, we're definitely on plan and accelerating in aftermarket sales and -- with really, really good profitability.

Our next question comes from Christer Magnergard with DNB Markets.

To start with, can we just -- can I just clarify the comments you made on pricing offsetting cost inflation? So did I understand the right that all the pricing you're implementing this year will fully offset the cost inflation, both in -- well, external factories and net costs?

Yes. So actually, most of that benefit is from pricing that we have already announced and are being implemented as we speak. The full drop-through of that plus the announced -- additional prices that we're announcing is kicking in Q2. So of course, we're -- just to be specific, we're offsetting the raw material inflation, the inflation in logistics and the inflation in electronic components. There are other sort of factors in net cost that were not -- that's not included in that calculation. But both pluses and minuses, including benefits from the reengineering and other cost headwinds. But -- yes.

Okay. Great. And the second one, the share repurchase program. Of course, the question to the Board, but you have much more shares on the balance sheet than the plan that you're going to cancel and do another share buyback program of SEK 2.5 billion. Why is the reason for the SEK 2.5 billion? Why not more?

Yes. So we're canceling all of the shares that we had on -- in treasury at the end of the year. And the Board has announced that they intend to have a recurring year-over-year share buyback program for several years. So the consideration is that it's prudent to have a stable buyback over multiple years rather than doing one massive sort of buyback program for a short period of time. It's just consider to be more efficient from a capital markets perspective, on the one hand, and also, of course, maintaining some flexibility in terms of our balance sheet to make additional acquisitions.

Our next question comes from Uma Samlin with Bank of America.

Just one for me on your North America market share. How do you see that to evolve in 2022? Since 2020, I think we have seen some shifts in market share with some LG gaining a bit more market share. And we have also just recently heard from Whirlpool that the also plan to regain some market share. How do you think about your market position in North America? And what are sort of the initiative for you to maintain or even gain market share there?

I feel very good about it. Unfortunately, we've been a bit hampered by the transformation programs and the -- and some of the other issues that the market in total has felt. But we have, I guess, been more heavily transforming than the industry on average. That has been a little bit of a pressure for us. That is now starting to turn into an advantage as we're completely renewing our product offer in North America, and I would confidently say more than any of our competitors in 2022 and fully in market in 2023. And so I'm confident in terms of value market share as we go forward. We look less, frankly, right now at unit market share because we're mixing up. We're focusing more on our premium offering. We would probably, I would say, over-indexed in some entry products and price points previously, which we've been mixing out of. So from a unit perspective, that's not something we'll focus on. We'll focus really on overall value share, which we feel very confident about going forward.

And for our last question, we have Martin Wilkie with Citi.

Yes. It's Martin. Just a final question on pricing. Obviously, the whole industry is looking to put up prices again in 2022. But obviously, the backdrop has changed a little bit because demand is coming off in some regions. And it seems like retailer inventories are a bit more normalized, even though, obviously, there's still supply constraints. Are there any concerns that it's going to be harder to put up pricing? Or do you think that, because there is still some of these constraints there, that the ability to put through the pricing is still just as good this year as it was during last year?

Yes. No. I think the point you made, and this is something we talked about also last year that, with the very sort of short supply lines and low inventory levels, price increases flow through to the market and got effect much faster last year than they typically do. And as we go into a more sort of normalized, to your point, inventory situation and then -- not currently, but over time, more normalized supply-demand situation, that will take a longer time. It will not impact our ability to raise prices, I would say. And I think we've -- over multiple years now, we've kind of strongly made the case that the market tends to compensate for cost increases that impact the industry as a whole quite well. This is not something that has changed. It's been like that for quite some time. The challenge is always timing of how and when cost increases or reductions frankly occur versus the timing of when and how we can implement corresponding price increases as an industry, Electrolux and our competitors. And -- but we have a fairly long track record now, pre-pandemic, during pandemic and now post-pandemic, of being able to offset those inflationary costs through price, and that we expect to continue. All right. So thank you for those questions. Hopefully, we've been able to provide a little bit more clarity. Again, to reiterate, I'm really proud of what we achieved in 2021: record sales and sales growth; record earnings; hitting our 6% margin target for now the consumer business for the first time; and really meeting all of our -- or exceeding all of our financial targets through a very attractive product and brand offering, as reflected by super strong consumer star ratings. We're also successfully managing to offset significant cost inflation through strong price execution. We continue to grow our strategic aftermarket business. And we've strengthened our direct-to-consumer platform, giving us a strong platform going into 2022. We're ramping up new products and facilities in the most launch-intensive year ever. Our efforts to deliver innovation for great consumer experiences, keeping our brands desirable give me confidence that Electrolux remain well positioned to create value. Thank you.