Accelleron Industries AG (ACLN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Accelleron's Investor Conference for the financial year 2023. I am Alice, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions]. And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Michael Daiber, head of Strategy and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to this annual investor conference on the financial year 2023. We are happy to have you as participants here in the room in Zurich as well as remotely through the webcast and the phone. For the participants in-house, please be aware, there is no fire drill planned today. So if there is a fire alarm, it's a real one, then please follow the green signs, go down the stairs and then hopefully, the hotel personnel will take care of us and tell us what to do. Then very important, please take a look at the safe harbor statement. The presentation today contains forward-looking information that naturally comes with uncertainties. Further figures are in U.S. dollar and prepared according to the U.S. GAAP accounting standard. After the presentation by Daniel and Adrian, there will be a Q&A session where participants will have the possibility to ask questions. In the room, it's very simple. You raise your hand, someone will come with a microphone to assist you. [Operator Instructions]. Now please let me hand over to our CEO, Daniel.

Michael, thanks. So ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and a warm welcome to you in the room but also on the screens. Thank you for joining Accelleron's annual analyst conference on the results 2023. After launching our first conference at our premises in Baden, we thought it's time now to come closer to you to Zurich, and that's why we are here and we enjoyed here. With me are Adrian Grossenbacher is the Chief Financial Officer. And Michael, you already got to know, Head of Investor Relations Strategy, Business Development, M&A and also with sustainability. So multitasking, the only person here, unfortunately. So I only have one job. So the agenda, I will start with the key highlights of 2023. Adrian will then take over for the financial review of the full year. And I will conclude with a deep dive on the markets and the outlook, including our guidance. This all is followed by a Q&A session. For those here in the room, you are most welcome to stay with us after the Q&A for networking lunch. So I would say let's start. So what are the key developments regarding our financial performance. In 2023, Accelleron performed strongly and laid a new foundation for our future prospects. We can look back on the first full financial year as an independent and stock-listed company with excellent results. Our revenues grew by 17.2%, 15.5% organically, that means adjusted for acquisition and currency. And we finally reached USD 950 million. The revenue grew -- growth was mainly supported by growing demand for Accelleron's product and services in merchant marine, but also in compression, gas compression. We achieved an attractive operational EBITDA margin of 24.4% despite supply chain challenges, especially in the H1 we can say clearly in H2, this -- the supply chain challenges have now normalized. We are back to normal. And the significant impact of additional expenses for our new business functions and systems we had to build up because under ABB, we had global business services. And now as a stock listed company, we had to build up everything ourselves, and it comes with a higher price tag. But the continued cost inflation on materials and labors were largely offset by price increases, we're able to agree with our customers. Our cash flow conversion of 99% was driven by a strong second half of 2023. Adrian will go a little more into detail. We completed our separation from ABB and the buildup of our new business functions in system progressed according to time and budget. I think it's time now really, I would like to take the opportunity to express on behalf of the whole executive committee and the Board of Directors. Our sincere gratitude to the whole external family for not only going the extra mile, I would say they have done a whole new marathon. And at the same time, they make sure that they keep the customer focus. We deliver them with all our product services and also virtual technology without any interruption on the customer side. So I think it definitely deserves a big, big thank you from all of us for our great people, our family. So then let's move on. If we -- now the strong performance is also visible when we come -- compare to the last 2 years. We achieved an improvement of all our most relevant financial figures versus 2022, but as well also in 2021, where we were still 100% part of ABB. Our revenue growth accelerated from -- significantly from USD 756 million in 2021 to USD 950 million in 2023. At the same time, operational EBITDA grew strong to reach USD 223 million in 2023. And we closed the year with a high free cash flow conversion of 99% considering that we had a high growth, remarkable result, and that's thanks to a strong cash collections and the stabilization of our inventory level. So this strong free cash flow enables Accelleron to propose at the next AGM, a significant dividend increase of 16% to CHF 0.85 per share, up from CHF 0.72 per share in 2022. So was 2023 only strong in financial or were there other highlights and definitely, there were a lot. And let me go through -- we will go through on innovation. We will see on partnership but also where we are able to catch some megatrends. So here on the left side, so this is all about innovation on the left side, you see our next-generation turbocharger. With our turbocharger, we are making great advancements to further grow our strong market position. The new Accelleron low-speed turbocharger X300-L, was launched in 2023 in June. The X300-L is much more than just the usual evolutionary improvement. It was developed with a strong focus on helping our customers address a lot of uncertainty on their journey when it comes to decarbonization of the maritime industry. That's why it excels with highest flexibility, which is reflected in the design, in the operation, in the maintenance concept, but also about digital readiness. In the middle, you see our Tekomar Emissions Module. So upcoming emission requirements will force shipowners to report CO2 emissions. This will create incentives in the market to develop more sophisticated strategy on emissions and how to avoid them. Our new Tekomar XPERT Emissions Module supports customers to achieve optimized CO2 emission ratings, supporting them in their compliance, sustainability performance, but also operational costs because it's about reducing fuel costs and increasing efficiency. On the right side, our latest [ retrofit ] solution called FiTS2, which is a flexible turbocharger cutout system. So you just can imagine like on -- when you have the car where they switch off some cylinders, here, it's not about switching off some cylinders. But the growth engine to grow the big engine have more than just one turbocharge [indiscernible] in the load, the less the efficiency of the turbochargers. So there's a system that you take them temporarily out for low load, which will finally increase the efficiency and not affect the power of the engines. So our FiTS2 solution helps achieve tangible fuel savings without compromising on the engine power output. Accelleron successfully implemented and tested the first flexible turbocharger cutout system on a container ship, and there will be many more to come. So Accelleron is well positioned to take advantage of some of the megatrends such as data centers and new fuel applications. Let me show you 3 examples, starting with our high-speed liquid fuel turbochargers, so the left picture. We are ramping up the business with our smallest turbocharger called TPX. It excels with high-power density, which means for the engine builder, it can take a smaller engine to provide the same power output, so less investment. So this is a highly relevant criteria in the backup power segment, where the engine not really runs. So it's not mainly about efficiency. It's about providing the most efficient engine that it can provide the most power output. So -- and this means everything, initial investment cost for the owners of such a backup power system. So the backup power market will experience continued strong growth due to a booming demand for data centers, not a surprise driven by cloud storage and computing, including our famous artificial intelligence. In 2023, we achieved very strong figures with 1,300 turbochargers TPX sold, and we expect this volume to double in 2024. The middle picture, Accelleron is also selected for the world's first methanol-fueled pure car and truck carriers with engine [indiscernible] ordered by Chinese customers, delivery is expected in 2025 and 2026. The right picture looking at ammonia dual fuel engines, Accelleron was also chosen for the very first to ammonia dual-fuel, newbuild projects featuring [indiscernible] engines. Both customers are from Belgium. So in 2023, we also strengthened our growth perspective through M&A, partnership and new business models. Here are 3 examples. Again, on the left side, on July 20, Accelleron completed the acquisition of OMT, a global leader in 2-stroke fuel injection system. This acquisition reinforces our commitment to growth and providing innovative solutions to customers, especially as they transition to 0 carbon fuel technology. I will come back to OMT in our outlook. In the middle, we also closed some important digital partnership. Early October, Accelleron signed partnership agreement with M.A.C. from Germany, and METIS from Greece, enabling data transfer from chip to cloud for all Accelleron's digital products such as Tekomar XPERT, or Turbo Insights. On the right side, our growth perspective further enriched with service agreement, both for marine and energy. In 2023, we signed the 100th Turbo LifecycleCare with a Greek shipping company. Now about 40% of our service revenues are covered under a kind of service agreement. Our ambition is to increase the service revenues coming from service agreements to an overall share of 50% in the next 5 years. The advantages of service agreement for customers are predictable maintenance costs, faster response time and higher reliability. The service agreement tend to include -- be more inclusive. So that's a benefit for us. And so that means they include more service scope than what we normally face on the transactional business. Terms can include fixed price per maintenance event to paid by the running hours. This main advantage provide peace of mind for our customers. All markets are on a journey towards more sustainability. Supporting the sustainability journey of our customers is at the heart of our purpose of our customers -- of our company. So our purpose is accelerating sustainability in marine and energy. But so is our own sustainability journey, and we walk the talk. In 2023, Accelleron committed to the science-based targets initiative, SBTi as well as the UN Global Compact. We are upholding both principles. And with this in mind, Accelleron undertook various important initiatives to pave the way towards reaching its 2030 sustainable targets that we achieve the ESG rating of A from MSCI in this month is just another important milestone on our very young sustainability journey as a stand-alone company. But to ensure that our organization is fully aligned with the sustainability target, every employee eligible for short-term incentive has at least one sustainability-linked target. In addition, starting in 2024, the long-term incentive for the executive committee members include a specific CO2 reduction targets and not only the famous Scope 1 and 2 but also including Scope 3 elements where management has a significant influence upon. And we also achieved tangible results when putting sustainability into practice. Our own PV system was installed on our roofs of our headquarters in Baden, Switzerland generating annually about 1 gigawatt hours of electricity. So covering 10% of our own local needs in electricity. So with that, I'm hosting my part, and I'd like to hand over to you, Adrian, for the financial. Thank you.

Thank you, Daniel. Let me now walk you through our financials of 2023. We're starting with the group performance. Overall, the positive market momentum and trend from 2022 continued the entire year, leading to an increased demand for both the marine and energy industry especially merchant marine product and service business as well as gas compression business in the U.S. were strong contributors. Our revenues grew by 17.2% to USD 915 million for the full year 2023. On an organic basis, we recorded a growth of 15.5%, exceeding the latest guidance. The strong growth was predominantly volume driven and to a lesser extent by price increases. The acquisition of OMT contributed about 3 percentage points to the overall growth. Despite significantly higher cost resulting from being a stand-alone entity, we managed to generate an attractive margin of 24.4%, close to last year's on the back of a healthy operating leverage. On an annualized basis, we estimate the impact of the standalone to be slightly above 200 basis points for the financial year '23 versus '22, mainly reflected within SG&A and in line with the guidance provided back in March 2023. As we continue to invest in R&D to elevate our innovation leadership, our R&D expenses were at comparable levels of 6.3% of our revenues. Finally, the ongoing cost inflation namely for materials and labor was, to a large extent, offset by price increases and continued productivity initiatives. Now let us go to the high speed segment with the gas compression business in the U.S. again spurred the top line. Additionally, the power generation business grew considerably. As a result, our revenues increased by 16.9% to USD 250 million. On an organic basis, we even grew by 17.8% for the same period. If we go further down the income statement, our operational EBITDA margin significantly increased by around 450 basis points. This was driven by a strong operating leverage, pricing measures that materialized in 2023 and a materially lower level of warranty expenses than the year before. These effects overcompensated the impact from being a standalone company and the inflation. On the next slide, we see the performance of the medium low speed segment depicted. The demand in this segment strongly grew for the merchant marine business in service and new buildings. For the cruise business, the service further recovered approaching pre-pandemic levels. Lastly, the service for power generation recorded considerable growth. Revenues overall grew year-on-year by 17.3% to USD 665 million, respectively, on an organic basis by 14.6%. The contribution of OMT amounts to $23.5 million post-acquisition closure. The operational EBITDA margin decreased by 200 basis points, which was mainly driven by additional expenses arising from the standalone setup and inefficiencies in the supply chain during H1. In contrast to the high speed segment, price increases could not completely compensate the operational cost inflation. Before moving to the cash performance, let us go through the bridge from operational EBITDA to net income to highlight a few specific effects. Starting from the left side, operational EBITDA amounted up to USD 223 million. Next to it, you can see the one-off and nonoperational costs, which amounted up to USD 82 million. About USD 75 million were linked to the build-up activities for new business functions and systems. The rest or the remainder results from the acquisition of OMT. We managed to reach full independence from ABB in summer and ramped down the transitional service agreements on time. While we are operating fully independently, we still expect limited residual buildup cost of around USD 20 million linked to the completion of the standalone structure. This excludes any effects arising from the OMT acquisition. Going to the middle of the bridge to the interest and finance expense, the interest and finance costs, including the impact of interest payments and pension income amounted to a total cost of roughly USD 4 million. 1/3 to the right, we can see the income tax expense which amounted to USD 27 million. The effective tax rate for '23 stood at 19.8%, which is higher than the year before, as onetime effects resulting from the separation didn't reoccur and a change in profit mix. Finally, the net income amounted to USD 110 million which is lower than in the previous year, largely due to the buildup cost. Moving to the cash flow, where the conversion for the full year stood at a healthy 99% after low levels in H1. For H2, we recorded a very strong growth of above 150%, driven by our intensified focus on working capital management. The healthy conversion demonstrates our relentless focus on operational excellence across the entire organization. In general, we see most working capital components scaling with the business volume growth and expect this to continue over the next years. Lastly, the slightly higher capital expenditures are also reflecting continued investments into the Swiss and Chinese factory perimeter as well as 2 million into the OMT factory in Turin, Italy which remains clearly one of our focal topics in 2024. Let me conclude this section by providing some color on our net leverage and the dividend proposal. Due to a healthy cash generation, especially in H2, we managed to close the year with a leverage of around 1x operational EBITDA despite the acquisition of OMT and the significant cash expenses linked to the buildup activities. As stated previously, Accelleron remains fully committed to a solid capital structure providing financial flexibility for future growth. In line with our priority to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders, the dividend proposal to the AGM for the financial year '23 amounts to CHF 0.85 per share or an increase of more than 16% to last year. Proposed dividend represents a payout ratio of 93% of reported net income after minority interest, underlying our commitment to return excess cash to our shareholders. As we have entered the year 2024, where we expect extraordinary cost related to the build-up activities to reduce significantly, we used the opportunity to share some updates about Accelleron's capital allocation framework compared to what we presented during the Capital Markets Day in August 2022. We will keep our focus on organic growth to leverage the opportunities in our markets for turbocharger and fuel injection with the appropriate level of R&D and capital expenditures. We expect those to remain largely in line with current revenue ratios. As we have proven with the acquisition of OMT, we will continue looking for upside potential of value-creating bolt-on acquisitions but will stay selective and disciplined. As stated in the last slide, we remain committed to a solid capital structure and feel comfortable with the leverage bandwidth of 0.5x to 1.5x operational EBITDA. Consequently, we want to return excess cash to the shareholders by the following means: firstly, an attractive stable to growing base dividend. Further excess cash would then be returned mainly by means of share buybacks, unless M&A opportunities materialize. This capital framework provides attractive shareholder returns while giving sufficient flexibility to grow our business, considering the opportunities, the energy transition brings to us. I would now like to hand back to Daniel for his view on the market outlook and concluding remarks. Thank you.

Thanks Adrian. So thank you, Adrian, for summarizing quite a solid financial figures and revised capital allocation strategy. Let me continue with an overview of market trends, key objectives and the guidance for this year 2024. As we all know, shipping belongs to the so-called hard-to-abate industries. These are industries that cannot become climate neutral simply through electrification. For shipping, it is common understanding that decarbonization is only feasible with the help of e-fuels or so-called synthetic fuels, such as e-methanol or e-ammonia. The mother of all e-fuels is green hydrogen. Green hydrogen means produced by breaking up water into oxygen and hydrogen in an electrolyzer, which is powered by renewable energies coming from wind, solar or hydro. Other hard-to-abate industries that are also depending on green hydrogen to achieve climate neutrality include aviation, iron and steel, fertilizer, chemicals, industrial heat and power generation. A study by Deloitte states that the world needs 600 million tonnes of green hydrogen per year for complete decarbonization just of these industries, let alone battery electric car and electrical heating pump. So 600 million tonnes of hydrogen might not sell a lot to any of us, at least not to me. It's a bit beyond my imagination. But if you take a closer look, you will realize this is anything but a walk in the park. The additional, and I repeat again, the additional amount of electricity needed for the production of the 600 million tonnes of green hydrogen is more than 25,000 terawatt hours annually. I'm coming from how generation, I can imagine what that means. But just this is exactly plus/minus the electricity produced today by all power plants worldwide. So we need exactly the same electricity to produce just the green hydrogen. For those end industries, which are not only hard-to-abate but are essential for our daily life. So -- and the corresponding electrolyzer, I explained, we need to crack the water into hydrogen and oxygen. The expected or needed capacity of electrolyte is about 7,500 gigawatts of which is less than 2 gigawatts are installed today. So the total investment for the development of this green hydrogen developed as infrastructure is estimated at around USD 9 trillion or USD 9,000 billion, which sounds a lot, but which corresponds to 1/10 of global GDP or take Switzerland, 11x Switzerland's GDP. So the major takeaway just as a food of thought, it is doable, no doubt. But if you want to reach the goals of the Paris climate agreement by 2050, we must build this complete new ecosystem within the next 26 years. And we have already -- almost hardly started. And furthermore, it requires clear regulations as well as coordination, collaboration between states and various industrial sectors. So let's have a look into how the marine market is preparing for this transition to new fuels whenever they become available. In 2023, the International Maritime Organization in short IMO, which is part of the United Nation, has finally updated their decarbonization target that aims at net 0 by around 2050 comparable to the efficiency rating of [indiscernible], we all know the A, C and D ratings, the IMO has defined a so-called carbon intensity index rating in short CII to categorize vessels by their CO2 emissions. So A is good, B is bad. And it's clear that in order to keep the ratings, they have to reduce the CO2 or even if they have to -- want to improve the rating, they even have to further reduce the CO2 emission. And the implementation of the local regulation of this IMO is still pending in many countries. A positive example is the EU. EU has, however, adopted an emission trading system that will apply for the shipping industry, starting this year. So CO2 will have a price whenever someone wants to ship goods by ship to a European port. You can see that chip owners start preparing for this change by investing in energy efficiency and upgrades of the existing fleets. Many shipowners also making sure that their new vessels will be compliant in a net -- in a zero carbon world, thanks to dual fuel capabilities. 50% of all vessels in the order books of the shipyards are as of end of 2023 were alternative fuel capable while most of the ship were still natural gas dual fuels, so not really zero carbon fuel, but still gas has 30% less CO2 emissions. We can see an update in methanol in the last 2 years. In the next years, we expect the orders for ammonia dual-fuel vessels to pick up. So the shift to dual fuel vessel helps Accelleron twofold. With the new more expensive fuels, fuel efficiency and fuel flexibility will be more important and an area where we are leading with our turbocharger. In the fuel injection, we even foresee higher growth as new ships come already -- will come with both fuel system installed already, so 2 fuel injection system. And in addition, the fuel injection for ammonia and methanol are much more expensive than dual -- diesel fuel injection just because of the complexity of handling the new fuels. So now we have started about the green hydrogen, where we see still a long way to go. We have seen the maritime industry is doing all what they need to do on the technical side. So -- but now let's move back from the long-term view to this year's outlook in the different markets. And more or less, I have to say, those who have seen us at the half year also conference not much has changed since then. But let's start with Marine, which represents more than 50% of our revenues. In container ship -- shipping, we come back from an exceptional 2023, where we saw extraordinary service revenues, among others, linked to a catch-up effect after 2022 with record high freight rates and as a consequence, delayed dry docking. So customer tried everything not to do a service in 2022 because there was just gold on the street, but they caught up then in 2023. It needs to be seen to which service -- to which extent, service revenues levels can be kept in 2024. But in turn, we see a good fleet utilization and the healthy shipyard order backlog. In the tankers markets, high freight rates are starting to translate, and we are slightly more optimistic than last year, while bulker remained subdued. The service business is expected to stay on a healthy level for both tankers and bulker. For cruise ship, we see that the demand from passengers is back, but the number of ships is still lower than pre-COVID and we do not see significant increase in new orders yet as most cruise ship companies still need to deleverage their balance sheet. The only exception is MSC, but we know MSC has a lot of containership and they made a fortune in 2022. So they are investing now in cruise ship. In specialized vessels, including LNG carriers, we saw very positive order levels at the shipyards in 2023. That should translate into a positive impact on our orders and revenues in 2024 and the years to come. In the energy sector, 2023, we saw record orders and revenues for gas compression in the U.S. while structurally, we still see the demand from North American liquefied natural gas. We expect a normalization of demand during 2024, a slight cool off. As the turbocharger for this application are produced in series, we also foresee a certain volatility as our customers might reduce their stock levels, which will negatively impact our revenues in this year. From the medium-speed power generation, we see a continuously healthy demand on the service side. Our newbuild demand for turbocharger medium-speed power is still weak. A possible uptake for thermal balancing application cannot be reported yet. Demand for high speed gas power plants was solid in 2023. In Europe, we currently see uncertainty in new building based on still relatively high gas prices and also high volatility in the gas prices as well as regulatory uncertainties. Long term, the energy transition with the move to more intermittent renewable energy should clearly drive the demand for thermal balancing in our grids. In our gross field high-speed liquid fuel, we expect the positive momentum to continue. This is linked to the good acceptance of our product, TPX as well as the increasing demand for data centers. So what are our key priorities in 2024? We want to continue gaining market share in our turbocharging business. Thanks to our strong position for new fuels as well as for upgrades of existing fleets. Our improved high-speed liquid fuel product portfolio and our growing share of service agreement. We are expanding our Tekomar solution -- Tekomar XPERT solution in scope and reach. And in our fuel injection business, we are increasing the capacity in factory and R&D to take advantage of the strong growth in the fuel injection market for both low and medium speed. And we will conclude the buildup of our new business function and system required as an independent and stock listed company. Before moving to the guidance for 2024, I would like to use some time to discuss one of the main priorities for this year, the investment in our recent acquisition, OMT. As mentioned before, we expect a significant growth in demand for fuel injection equipment linked to, firstly, the increasing demand for dual-fuel engines. And secondly, to the fact that the fuel injection systems for methanol and ammonia are significantly more complex and more expensive. At the same time, OMT is currently running close to full capacity. So we have a year of backlog already. We have a clear growth ambitions with OMT in both markets in low speed where we want to keep our strong market leader position as well as in the medium speed where we aim at gaining market shares with new fuel application. It's now the window of opportunity to break into the medium speed. To cope with the increasing demand, we will invest in R&D and production capacity so we are increasing production capacity by hiring new people, adding shifts, outsourcing of less critical production step to a third party and buying new equipment. The investment in the new R&D test center will support new fuel development project, especially in the medium-speed segment. The test center is expected to be completed by end of 2025. So now let's move to one of the key question everybody asked at the beginning of the year. So the guidance for 2024. So for the turbocharger business, as outlined in our outlook slides before, we see a stabilization on a high level after 2 years of double-digit growth at constant currency. So we see some business slightly going up, but we also see some business slightly cooling and some are flat. For Accelleron as a group, including OMT, we expect to grow revenues by 4% to 6% currency adjusted, thanks to mainly recognizing a full year of OMT revenues for the first time. We guide an operational EBITDA margin of around 24.5%. In the second half of 2023, we managed to reduce the standalone costs, which should have a positive effect on 2024 as well. On the other hand, we expect normalization in 2024 of the previous very favorable index-based pricing, mainly in the high-speed product business and continuous price pressure in medium and low-speed product business with a corresponding negative impact on the profitability. We expect free cash flow conversion, net leverage and dividend position fully in line with our revised midterm items. Dear participants, 2024 is a very special year for us. A gentleman named Alfred Büchi invented the turbocharger in 1905 in Winterthur in the canton of Zurich. He patented the turbocharger as and I need to quote, "an internal combustion engine systems, with a compressor, a piston engine and the turbine connected behind it. " So that's how we call it the turbocharger, much simpler now with this world. And invention that was as simple as it was ingenious, but only a few people at the time recognized the importance of this simple invention. It took almost 20 years for the world to recognize the importance of this technology. It was not until 1924. So exactly 100 years ago, that the first turbocharger were manufactured for locomotive and marine engines to increase performance. They were manufactured by BBC, turbocharging, the predecessor company of Accelleron. So our commitment to innovation has ensured that our technology remains just as relevant a century later. Today, we are proud to be the leading provider of heavy-duty mission-critical turbochargers. We will celebrate our 100th birthday with internal and external events. Some events just about to be finalized, some still in the thinking. I hope we will see some of you at one of those events. So thank you for your kind attention. We are now happy to take over questions both in the room and via the audio system, and Michael is the master.

Welcome to the Q&A session. Participants in the room, just raise your hand, and we have 2 microphones with ANA and with Regina that will support, come there. [Operator Instructions] Thank you very much, and let's start.

Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Two questions, please. One question just to understand sort of like your comments around High Speed. And I think it was clear on the gas compression side, what you said. Can you help us through how the different parts of the business contribute. So how big is gas compression versus data centers just to join the various leases together there? And then the second thing, I would have lots of capital goods companies, they've closed '23 after with big backlogs. I would imagine you don't publish the figures, but what visibility do you have in backlog for this year and factoring to the 0% to 2% organic you have there? And what's the pricing carryover as well from that so that we could think about how the [indiscernible] this year really looks under your scenario?

Thank you. Daniela. So 3 questions, the portion of gas compression, data center and visibility. So gas compression is about slightly more than 10% of our business, has grown significantly, almost 30%. So you can do the maths where we were before. So the data center is now today, that's the famous TPX. It's a $6 million business, and we expect this to double this year, if everything works well and that was from $6 million to double. So it's a small business but an important one, and that's where we see to really also may gain market share because you know we had nothing before. So the visibility, 75% of our business is service more or less 3 months visibility. It's clear. As long as the ships are running, there will be service done, but if -- the going gets half, they might stretch the services and do later on. So -- but it's 3 months on the product side, it's more or less 3 to 6 months. But on the medium and low speed, we have the visibility because we -- the ships are older at the shipyard. So normally, we don't get the order immediately when they get the orders. So they go through the process but I would say to a big portion, we already know whether we are more likely on the ships. So shipyards are booked out until '26. So -- and still increasing. So on the product side, medium and low speed, we have good visibility. But here also, if you do the maths, 75% is service, 25% is product and half of the product is medium and low speed. So for 12%, you have a kind of good visibility. On the high speed product business, that's a fast-moving things probably there 6 months.

Maybe the pricing on carryover on that side, the service side as such as sticky part. While in high speed, Daniel mentioned, we have had index-based pricing or we still keep. And therefore, we see a certain slowdown on that side, which was favorable in '23. The medium-low speed product side, we face continued, let's say, competitive pressure. And therefore, I think it's mainly on the pricing side of the service with the stickiness just to carry over. There is -- nothing back to the midterm -- what we sell between [indiscernible].

We try to be selective on the service side where we really see cost increase. But sorry, this mentions every time we are not the cheapest in the market. And we have to be careful not to stretch the limit. So we are -- we have a good partnership with our customers that also means which -- we don't try to take advantage and boost this. We gain margin from price increases. We try to protect our margin on the service side while, as I said, on the medium and low speed, it's a project business, and it's about to us to win or lose, which I don't like.

[indiscernible]. I have two questions. First question is regarding the residual buildup cost of $20 million. Maybe could you explain again what is exactly included there? I mean, does it still include the ERP system because I think that was the biggest chunk. And the second reason is regarding the new capital allocation policy. I mean, now you say you have a base and stable dividend, but you don't really say how much it is from reported net income. I mean, it is fair to assume that there should be a big jump in 2024 because standalone costs are gone, but could you get maybe an indication, so let's say, roughly 70% of net profit or something like that?

Let me start with the residual buildup cost. I think that to the $20 million indeed, as you know, we were speedily moving out, establishing these systems. So we have certain efforts still to finalize those. And surely, this relates back as well to the ERP. The ERP is working but it can be elevated in one or the other instance. And therefore, a certain element of this $20 million relate back to this. But we are operational. There is no concerns on continuity. It's just really making those elements, let's say, more productive, which is then beneficial for the organization. So it's an investment into efficiency and productivity of the future.

And those costs will flow through the P&L, right?

Those cost flow to the P&L. As you know, this is a cloud-based solution. So little to no room in that sense or from a GAAP point of view to take on the balance sheet. It's mostly expensed. And to the second one, I think let's take a step back. Qualitatively speaking, we expect net income to materially grow on the back of lower nonoperational onetime costs. That's correct. And we always set the first, let's say, mean to return cash capital to our shareholders is growing or, let's say, a constant to slightly growing dividend and complemented then with a share buyback or if there are M&A opportunities materializing that the capital would be relocated. I think that qualitatively, in terms of giving a specific guidance on the dividend, I think, will come in the course of the year clearly. Daniel?

I think it's important a lot of discussions with investors over the last 1 year because they really be confused with our capital framework and which I have to admit, I agree. But it was clear that whenever we do an adjustment on the dividend, it should be stable at least also in the bad times. And so that's why we will definitely adjust dividends if you are confident that we can keep that level also in the way forward because what was definitely not appreciated if you would reduce the dividend. So in that light, it's clear if everything goes according to plan, if our non-ops go down, the corresponding net income goes up, so this delta net income will be returned as a dividend and as a share buyback. How much portion, we will have in the dividend and how much on the share buyback. We will review and see where we are standing there. Does it help you, [indiscernible]? Unfortunately, but I can't give you a quantitative. I mean I think you were not expecting to get that.

Doron Lande, Kepler Cheuvreux. Could you maybe give like a time frame when the share buyback is about to commence or do we have any plans for it?

As always said, we are not the bank so we can build on us that we return excess cash besides that, I think no specific guidance yet to the timing of a share buyback.

It's just an option...

It's a valid option we consider when we see, okay, we don't want to return everything as a dividend because it gives us still some flexibility on the share buyback. The mic seems not to work, right? Maybe another micro, please?

A clarification on the one-off expenses, this $20 million as a follow-up. Is it still in part of the budget of those initially announced one-off? Or is it additional?

I mean let us, again, take a step back, this is quite the journey. As we know, we're a massive endeavor for the company. Back in '22, we said $105 million in total for that program. We expensed $35 million in '22, $75 million in '23, meaning we're at $110 million. We have here an additional $20 million. Yes, that is a bit above. But when we look into the total context, this is a 10%, 15% because we had as well the Swiss franc appreciation, which has eaten up certain element. So really, on a constant basis, a 10% to 15% which we think is a comparably small deviation, right to the initial, what we said for a journey, which not many companies ultimately accomplished. It remains our goal to close this by this year within the frame we have guided.

Final question. We're already in March, it's Q1. Could you give us maybe a bit of a trading update and how this includes the -- is included in the assumptions of the guidance?

If you would have different time, we definitely would have different guidance given. Now, we are on track. Again, it's not a walk in the park, but we are on track with all the KPIs we have guided here. But still 9 months to go. And considering that we have 3 months backlog, it's not a given yet. But we are committed.

I would take 2 questions from the chat. In the meantime, I think there's one question from [indiscernible] investment management on the mid-time guidance for dividend. I guess you've answered it, but the question is when free cash flow is stronger or you will -- will you expect -- do we have to expect a strong dividend increase? Or will you rather gradually increase dividend at a slower pace and give back the rest in share buybacks or spend it on M&A? I think there, the question is good answered. Now [ Martin Bechard ] from [ Van Bodner ] is a little bit more accurate on this question. Is it reasonable to assume that the payout ratio, including share buyback, will be above 80%. If no M&A and the leverage ratio is in that bandwidth. I think we confirm we are not the bank. So consequently, it's up to 100% return. There are no M&A materializing.

Again might be -- portion might be dividend [indiscernible]

Okay. I would then give the hand to question from the phone.

[Operator Instructions] The first question from the telephone comes from the line of Kim John, Deutsche Bank.

It's John from Deutsche. I wanted to push a bit on the guidance. If we look at the -- both the revenue guide on percentage terms, and the margin expansion or lack of it, it feels fairly conservative. Are there certain apples to oranges, maybe an equal cost distribution you need to think about because the operational leverage on the guide looks pretty low if you back out OMT. A follow-up question to that. Is it fair to say if you're guiding 4% to 6% [indiscernible] that you're only really looking for about 0% to 2% growth in the quarter. Or is there something else that we need to think about?

On the revenue guidance, yes, I think it's fair to assume 0% to 2% on the organic side. In addition, the OMT, as mentioned by Daniel, on the margin, I mean, we do not have big seasonalities. I think we have highlighted that on the stand-alone cost, meaning the part of the new functions within the operational EBITDA, we have seen H2 coming in a bit lower than H1, which we try to carry forward and further optimize. Nevertheless, as mentioned by Daniel as well, we do have certain pricing headwinds so consequently, the 24.5% is a combination of these effects.

Probably just quickly again on the 0% to 2%. We went through and we have shown you some 2 pockets where we see a cool off, which is the gas compression, which is about 10% to 11%. And there, we definitely see cool off also because we see our customers are reducing their stock. So that means we can only deliver once so that's number one. In addition, on the high speed, again, we have index price -- index-based pricing with a lot of customers. So that means it follows indices. And also, over a long time, they are perfect -- they don't -- they're always perfect when it comes to timing. Last year, we really benefited from those index. We saw more cost increase in the year before. And then we saw a slight pool of the cost last year, but the price went up because it all has a time lag. And now, we see now the price coming down because the costs also went down. So this is already an impact on that one. And so that's on the high speed. On the medium and low speed as already mentioned in the half year. What we have seen, because in 2022, I mean, if you take a look on the [ Maersk ] P&L and if you see some informal information about MSC, they made a fortune. And this was all about freight rates. And they try to avoid any dry dock whenever possible. So dry dock is -- every ship has to go through bigger maintenance every 5 years. So they put the ship in a dry dock and they work. And that's -- and so they pushed everything into '23 because the freight rates way down. So -- and 5 years doesn't come every year. Unfortunately, it only comes every 5 years. So Christmas is only every 5 years. So -- but here, we have to be careful. I don't want to do too much black painting. I mean on the ship, we have more or less 2 engines, the main engine with a big turbocharger and a lot of auxiliary engine that produce the electricity while the main engine turns the propeller. So during the dry dock, what they do is to do the maintenance on the main engine, including our turbocharger. So that was a 30% increase we had in this year, just following the dry dock. So the auxiliary turbocharger, they can do at any ports say where they have a little bit longer time to stay. So what we see is definitely the main propulsion turbocharger goes down while the auxiliary still is continuing the trend, which is positive, but we definitely see unfortunately negative impact on that one. And as I said, merchant marine, all in all, it's 45% of our business. So these are the 2 things that are pushing us down. This will normalize, but this year, it's the cooling off. And that's why we only guide for 0% to 2% on the turbocharger business. These are the 2 pockets. While we have shown you the backup or the emergency is a small business yet. Still, it will give some nice growth. But absolutely, we'll never have a chance to compensate for the merchant marine and also, what was the other thing where we are -- in the gas compression, it's 10%, but he was giving a big push, and it's now also a bit cooling off, which will come back. So it will not be compensated by the good things. So that's why we are more on the 0% to 2%. I hope you are able to understand our logic.

Just a quick follow-up on the OMT investment. How should we think about CapEx this year and the halves given the investments in OMT?

For instance, investing into a new R&D center, and this is in the single digit, definitely in the context of the overall group, not material, but material for OMT and to make the growth plan happen, right, ultimately as capacity remains major constraint. So in totality, as said, roughly in line with the current ratios. I think we are between 3% to 4%, maybe we're a bit towards the 4% when we invest higher into OMT, but would then expect a certain normalization. So not material for the group as said to time.

There are no more questions on the telephone.

Sebastian Vogel from UBS. I got 3 questions. I would ask them one by one. The first one is just the clarification of an earlier asked question. When you were providing the split for data centers and forecast compression, there was also the point about medium speed power versus high speed power. Maybe I missed the answer there, would you providing more just to sort of your exposure, what you have to be sort of subsegments? That would be the first question.

More or less high speed power is about 15% and medium speed power is also about 15% of our revenues. But again, be careful, they can swing. So if you ask me in 1 year, they might be slightly different.

Sure. And a follow-up question on the pricing side. Can you just quickly remind us what was the pricing effect that you had in 2023 on a group level?

We said less pricing than quantity. So it's roughly around 4 percentage points of total growth, meaning 15% in total, 4% that off the price, 11% volume roughly.

Got it. And the last one is on -- again, we done on pricing, but with regard to your service business and how is actually the pricing been done relative to the Swiss franc, how much of a tailwind potential you can see on the back of that one for 2024?

It's definitely a big portion of our service business in Swiss francs, but the customer always do the calculation. It's clear. I mean, if the Swiss franc goes up, then we are happy if you can keep the pricing, then there's little room to further increase. But yes, so some prices are in Swiss francs, and then we have no potential to increase because the Swiss francs appreciated against the local currency or U.S. dollar in that respect.

Good. Then I would take other questions from the chat. First one, Alexander Burgansky from Research Partners. What percentage of your 2023 revenues came from services? How do you expect this share to change in 2024? I think we were in the past around 3 quarters, and we are close to it as well in '23 is basically product and service roughly equally, let's say, profited from the growth as such. Going forward, we always said, we do not guide on this, but we do not expect that this will materially change over the midterm. Hope this answers to the extent.

It was surprising. I mean, even if there's more push on the product, you might see 1% more on the product side. So it's not a land slide normally what you see exactly, it's plus/minus 1%, 2% where you see the shift from product to service.

Okay. One more question from [indiscernible] asset management, what kind of market share has OMT?

So in the product business of low speed above 40%. On the service side, it's a bit much less, but there's a lot of tailwind product and the stickiness to the [ OMT ] slip slightly different, but OMT is more in the high-end fuel injection where the stickiness in service is much more. It's clear on the medium speed. We are mainly in service business in the old engine. But probably there's a difference in the business model. Just I would like to explain you again. The 2-stroke business is a kind of licensor and licensee. So that means you have 2 licenses, which are [indiscernible]. Normally, they own the design of the fuel injection because it's part of the business model that they have a lot of licenses that can produce the engine. So the engine builder like Hyundai was licensee get in several suppliers. So we are more or less producing based on the design. But also here, OMT has a special position because also those have good experience in the fuel injection. OMT is the one who really knows how to produce them. Very often the design we got from the licensors like [indiscernible] are good, but not good enough. So they do it in the final one. But the design still belongs to the licensors. While the 4-stroke business is a different one. So normally, the design is done and owned by the fuel injection company. So very often then you are a single source. And now that's clear. Once they have designed the engine, they are not opening up. But now it's a window of opportunity because they are designed a lot of new engines, mainly for the fuel injection system. So now it's the time for OMT to get in and get these development contracts and being the exclusive supplier. So that's why this whole new fuels gives us now the opportunity to really break in and that's why we are increasing the R&D capacity, just to be the #1. And we got a lot of 4-stroke engine builders where we are now deciding methanol and ammonia fuel system for them. And then as I said, this design belongs to us. But it's part of the contract we have with the OEM, but it's clear, it's an exclusivity on both sides. We are not allowed to use this design anywhere else.

Good. One last question from the chat from Martin Bechard from [indiscernible]. How much revenue did you generate with LPG chips? Could you share this information?

I would say it's minor. I mean I would say, if I'm not mistaken, I bring, I think, on this whole LNG and LPG, probably the majority is LNG and the LPG is probably less than 1% or whatever. Or do you ...

In the low single digit or something.

It's minor. And it has swings. It goes up and down because certainly not the biggest split LPGs.

So I think no more questions in the chat for the moment, I don't see any questions from the phone. Is there any questions in the room? Any hand that I have not yet [indiscernible].

[indiscernible] I actually have a bit of an understanding question regarding the change from the fixed costs to the running by the -- paid by the running hours scheme concept. What does it mean? And how does it impact the margin?

Normally, the very traditional business customer asked us, can you do as a service, we review, we give them a quote for the scope and then he agrees and we do the job. With this, the fixed prices more or less we have a frame contract, and we say, okay, a normal overhaul that surprise you have to pay. And if the scope is higher, it's on us, the scope is less than it's on us. And on the paid by the hour is more or less similar. We estimate the scope based on what we know and because we should know, but instead of paying by the event, he pays by the hours. So this is not a risk for us because the service depends on the running hours. So if it stands still, there's no service, we don't have costs, but we also don't have revenues. So it's quite matched. So that's the way -- by the way, like on the chat engines paid by the hour that seem that the equipment they paid by the hour and not only the service. So this is a normal model. As I said, the good thing is we get much more scope because we take much more on board and very often, this also comes because customers more and more are challenged by the new fuels. So they accrue anyway, they always struggle with the competence of their crew. It's not too easy to get any more people on the ship for 3 months and not seeing anybody. So -- and so it's already challenge today to run the ship. And now they need to focus now on the new fuels imagine ammonia, highly poisonous. Methanol is also not something I would recommend to drink. So that means now they need all the attention of the people to train them for the new fuel. So they say, look, we have so many people on the ship, forget it. Can you take on the turbocharge. We don't want to be the expert anymore, you take care and they outsource more and more. And that's why in this business model helps as well. So don't worry, that surprise you paid and we take care. If there's more scope, it's on us, if less scope, then it's also on us. And that's the way we do [indiscernible]. Whether it's now a fixed price per event over a longer time for several events or paid by the hour that's just the way they pay.

I think one question from the [indiscernible].

Just a quick one on this topic of the dual fuel having more content than on the OMT perhaps a stupid technical question, but if we think dual fuel, do we -- is it twice the content? Or can you help size for us how much more it is?

Number one, [indiscernible] yes. I mean, look, on the cylinder normally, when you have a diesel injection, you have 3 diesel injectors. It's not like on the car, there is not so much cylinder, so they are really big. So sometimes 90 centimeters [ every ]. So they have 3 diesel injectors. When they have dual fuel, they have another 3. So that's number one. Someone would say times two very simple, not exactly because the new injectors tend to be much more expensive. They need different material because methanol and ammonia is not so nice to meddle like diesel and also because it's more poisonous. In generally, you have a central pump for the high pressure. Now you move that to the diesel injector because you don't want to have a line with 1,000 bars with ammonia in the pipe and then if you have a splash, then not a good one. So this increase. But I can't tell you now how much more expensive, but it's definitely more expensive. It's not only times 2. But the interesting thing is now -- and I mean, unfortunately, it's not that I get the increase in prices than more profit. It's more complicated, it's more material. The challenge will be definitely -- it's not only us who are at the limit of the capacity more or less everybody in this field is at the limit. And now it's really a race, get more capacity, build up capacity, look for factory and build factories because, as I said, the market growth. So for the time being, it's not in the demand, which is the limiting factor. It's the capacity, which drives and we hope that we are not becoming a limited factor for the shipyards to build chips that the small diesel injector are not available anymore. So it's really an exciting challenge, but also a challenge.

What do you say are the main competitors of OMT?

Look, OMT, on the 2-stroke, there's Koreans and Japanese and Chinese. On the 4-stroke, you have the big ones like Bosch, but here, we see a good way to get in. I mean they're all doing a good job, but I think all this -- as I said, this competence, how you treat methanol and ammonia, they're really strong. And that's now the window for us to get in and take market share. Once you're in, you're in and here, it's definitely more important. When you're on the 2-stroke, you are not good in capacity, you might lose something, but you get it back because you're more or less manufacturing for the licensor. But on the 4-stroke, if you're not on the R&D we're not in. So -- and that's why we have a strong push, and we will do everything to be -- become a significant player in [indiscernible].

So -- if there is no more question, I would have the pleasure to tell you where you can go for a quick lunch. And you will have to go one stair down. We have to go -- that's the last announcement I would say. Thank you very much for participating here in the room, through the webcast, through the phone, the ones in the room, I think we're open for questions and further discussions right now and else, I wish you to enjoy your lunch. Thank you very much.