Advantest Corporation (6857) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Today we're presenting our next Mid-term Plan. We call it Mid-term Plan 3, or MTP3, you'll hear it. And the contents of what I'd like to share with you today are the following. First of all, we're going to be talking about the era of complexity. And I'm going to put lots of emphasis on this word. You'll hear it throughout the presentation today; then I'll talk about the key strategies that we're going to employ during the next 3 years; and then we'll talk about the financial targets associated with those strategies. So, the environment surrounding the world is changing fairly drastically now. There's been breakthroughs in technology, combined with efforts to improve sustainability of the global environment that are driving innovation and driving demand for high-performance semiconductors. On the other hand, there's rising geopolitical risks that have led to increased semiconductor production capacity and geographical redistribution. The growing demand for high performance semiconductors, which require high technology for manufacturing and diversification of value chains, are bringing this era of complexity to the semiconductor industry. Actually, we've been focusing on this now since the 2000s. And we recognize that the complexity will have a significant impact on the direction of our business. To respond to this, we formulated our grand design in 2018 and have implemented 2 medium-term plans over the last 6 years. This picture illustrates the multiplying effects of both the complexity of the devices and the complexity of the supply chains, and put together, creates a lot of opportunity for our industry and for the company. In the past 2 Mid-term Plans, we accomplished 3 major achievements. The first achievement was the creation of unparalleled product portfolio by investing in the development of our semiconductor test equipment. It's no exaggeration to say there is no semiconductor that cannot be measured with our semiconductor test equipment, such as cutting-edge, HPC and AI devices and HBM used in data centers for generative AI, power management ICs, which are in growing demand for automobiles and industrials, and image sensors, display drivers, and others that are widely used in automotive and consumer electronics. The investments in our core businesses during the Mid-term Plan 1 and 2 over the last 6 years have created the foundation for future growth. Second, we made strategic and complementary investments made in the field of adjacent areas. As a result, in addition to strengthening our existing core markets, we have expanded our business scale into areas of system-level test, test interfaces and sockets, and data infrastructure. And then thirdly, we have meticulously placed our bases where semiconductor industries around the world have expanded, and we have strengthened our personnel in the development area, in R&D, sales, and support in each of these regions. This has enabled us to build strong relationships with our customers, which have led to a very, very advantageous position. I should say Advantest and advantageous position. Excellent. So, this is what it all resulted in. We've been able to earn the trust of our customers in the market, and we recorded significant growth in market share, revenue, and market cap. We've recorded significant growth in market share from 36% in 2017 to 58% last year. Our sales revenue has multiplied by 2.4x, and our market cap has gone up 10x. In addition, we've become the #1 market leader in the research companies' customer satisfactions surveys for 5 consecutive years from 2020 to 2024. Okay, let's look at the semiconductor market growth and the driver of the market. As you all know and expected, the semiconductor market will reach the $1 trillion in the 2030s. In the late 1990s, with personal computers and the Internet, then in the mid-2010s with widespread smartphone adoption, the semiconductor industry was already in the era of capital scaling, which then turned into now what we call the era of complexity. So, the era of capital scaling was needed to keep up with the evolving technology and increasing demand, and the more you needed equipment, the more you needed to scale. However, there has been increased calls now for technical constraints, such as the slowing of Moore's Law and the growing technical and social demands to reduce power consumption. On the other hand, the rapid social implementation of generative AI requires more advanced computing power. To meet these conflicting demands, the semiconductor industry is working to combine and optimize a variety of technologies, giving rise to what we can describe as the era of complexity, and that complexity is accelerating. Okay, slow down a little bit. Okay, so let's look at this next page. Now we're talking specifically about the era of complexity, first from the technology side. So, the issues of the semiconductor industry can be summarized in the diagram on the left, for example. All 6 circles are issues that are connected. It means that they're independently important for the complexity, but they're also interrelated, so there's a multiplying effect. The connection and dependency becomes much stronger and tighter for the more advanced computing, like AI. Therefore, test intensity grows in the era of complexity, and this will be driving a degree of interdependency for which test solutions will be needed. So, then if we move to the right side, now we can look at the value that Advantest brings. The proliferation of AI in the value chain is driving challenges of integrating the advanced computing capabilities, such as learning, inferencing, and generation into a single device. So in order to address this challenge and all of these challenges, there's more interdependencies and more value that Advantest can bring with our assets, shown in the brighter wine-red circle. Next page. Also, as I mentioned earlier about the world complexities, this picture illustrates some of the changing dynamics. So today the environmental requirements, demographic shifts, and political issues are driving the reorganization of semiconductor production bases and capacity. Global supply chains continue to expand and strengthen, and there's a mix of directions closely related to supply chains within countries and regions, increasing the complexity of semiconductor production. So, without saying much more than that right now, I would say, Advantest over the last many decades already has worked to place ourselves strategically around the globe, and now we're bearing the fruits and the good fortune of having mapped ourselves to where the semiconductor supply chain is moving. So, all of this is meant to say that we're in good shape and we're continuing the efforts that we put in place already, and to respond to the era of complexity that we've just discussed, we have updated our vision statement as a company, which is to be the most trusted and valued test solutions company in a semiconductor value chain. So, let me just highlight the 3 important words in that statement, which is trusted, valued, and solutions. We selected these 3 essential words to walk through the era of complexity. Okay, so let me transition now to the details of our third midterm management plan where I will lay out the details. Before we get into specifics, I want to highlight again the position that Advantest is in. We're starting in a market position that is #1. This is a result of all the efforts that we put forth in the first and second Mid-term Plans, and now it's safe to say that we have a dominant position in the test market. From the cloud to the edge, from the data center to the smart car, to the consumer devices, we hold a commanding position. So, to keep this position and expand our corporate value, as the Midterm Management Plan 3 will implement 4 key strategies over the next 3 years. First, expand adjacently into -- I'm sorry, first outpace the core business. Secondly, expand into adjacent businesses. Third, drive operational excellence. And fourth, enhance sustainability. From the next page forward, we'll get into the details of each strategic initiative. So, the first one is to outpace the growth in our core market. So we will further strengthen our core businesses of testers and aim to grow beyond our core market while incorporating the adjacent businesses that we've already invested in. Sometimes we say yesterday's adjacents are today's cores. It's a good way to summarize what we've done over the past several cycles. So, if we move into the specifics of that first key strategy, it really is the cornerstone of the company, which is to provide superior test solutions based on superior measurement technologies. So, in order to address customer issues more broadly and deeply, we will further strengthen and deepen these test solutions in our third midterm management plan. If you look at the picture here, you can see that these are our key platforms, the V93000 that addresses digital and RF and power analog, T2000/T6391 that addresses our CMOS image sensor and display driver customer markets. Our memory ATE that addresses all of the memory devices, including HBM, which is a very, very popular topic right now; our device handling, which is established for our past legacy pick-and-place business and for packages, but now we'll go forward and address things like die level handling; with our SLT and burn-in, we can address all types of device and system level testing; and with CREA on the lower right, it's a business we require that addresses solutions that require high voltage for things like electric vehicles. Next, this is a very important slide, so let me try to explain clearly. If we look at the crossbar on the upper side of the page, this shows the value chain of the semiconductor industry from left to right. In red are the points that our products are used; in the green circles are areas where our products do not cover. The lower side of the page shows an example of our portfolio of products and services, each of which integrates or connects each other with the tester at the center. In this presentation, we have looked at test complexity in the era of complexity, and we believe that efficiency is the key for addressing it. And to realize the significance of efficiencies, we'll pursue the next layer of automated testing to help our customers release their products into the market in the most efficient manner possible. So, in order to solve the problems of the industry for the test complexities, sure, Advantest has lots of assets that we can draw upon, and we've developed either organically or inorganically. But also, there's areas and gaps that we don't fill, and that's important to recognize that we have to collaborate into the future. And so, Advantest can serve a very, very special role in these problem-solving through integration. And that integration happens both with our customers and with our partners, as you can see in the picture. And the complexity is really driving the industry into a more collaborative environment, and Advantest has a very, very good, trusted relationship both with our suppliers and with our customers and our ecosystem partners. Okay. So let me move to the second key strategy, which is to expand adjacently into new businesses. So, as I mentioned before, the past 6 years we have invested in these adjacent areas, and now we have to deliver on those expanding adjacents. So, next one. This picture tries to summarize things in a very simple as we could make it, actually. And it shows how that we'll leverage our system-level testing and our device handling and test consumables and data infrastructure that we have acquired and developed in the Midterm Management Plan 1 and 2 as a bridge to expand our core business domains. So, you can see in the growing wine-red area in the picture, our core expansion will continue to widen with the consideration of urgency, importance, and the size of market demand related to complexity. So, we've made a series of acquisitions in the past, and we continue looking for potential for M&A, partnerships during the Mid-term Plan 3. So this shows a little bit more about the adjacencies that I was just talking about. So, one of the key areas of adjacent business expansion is into related areas such as service. So, at the top box in the pink, you can see that our service business-related sales are expected to increase along with increase in our installed base. As a recurring business, we'll continue to stabilize our earnings. In the next Mid-term Plan, we will also work on a test engineering service in order to help our customers bring up devices faster to deploy into production. This will be an important capability as the complexity grows. Then in the bottom, you can see again the supply chain chart, and we can extend left in order to help collaborate with our customers around linking EDA into production tests, and then also further right as we've already invested to continue further expansion downstream into system level tests and system testing. As I just mentioned, it's important to leverage our installed base. It really serves as a foundation. So maybe some people know, but many people don't know how large our installed base is. So, here it tells you we're over 30,000 systems installed worldwide, and this is comprised of SoC testers, memory testers, handlers, system level testers, all which are maintenance serviced right now and into the future, and we continue to build on that installed base on an annual basis. Next page. One of the specific solutions I wanted to highlight is around data analytics. So, we have developed something called Advantest Cloud Solutions as a platform for the use of AI and semiconductor testing and data collection utilization. With the test platform shown at the bottom as an anchor, we've provided infrastructure that enables what we call real-time data transfer called RTDI, as well as AI algorithms and visualization applications developed by us and our partners as a computing environment in which these applications run. The solution also allows customers to run AI applications developed on their own. It has been very efficient so far in improving efficiency of tests, improved testing quality at all of the customers in the value chain, and we're seeing customers' expectations increase strongly in this area. Okay. Now, let me move to a third key strategy, which is to drive operational excellence. Basically, I think it speaks for itself. It's how do we do things faster, better, and more productively. So, in order to increase our corporate value, we'll enhance our operating model that brings high-quality management within our company. For that purpose, we have begun the initiatives of promotion of digital transformation, supply chain reform, IT architecture and cybersecurity, and corporate risk control, and financial management, and human capital development. So, a lot of things in this area. I would say the digital transformation through our business process reengineering will bring us higher productivity in our internal activities among R&D, sales, and production. I can say that our supply chain reform will build the most efficient way of production for various product portfolios to realize the high resilience of our global supply chain and contribute to our business continuity plans. As a high-technology company, we are basically valued by our intellectual property and our customer information, which are the most critical things to protect. So, securing our IT environment is a mandatory infrastructure that we spend a lot of time focused on that we will continuously improve. Also, corporate risk management for proactive risk control, effective cost control by our financial management is a foundation of our business success, and last but not least, human capital development, where we will continue to create high value by enhancing our development and retention programs through hiring, training, and education, as well as sharing and transferring knowledge and skills. That's probably the most important piece of capital that Advantest has is our human capital. Just specifically for a second, because I get this question from industry, customers, investors, employees, all of our stakeholders, is how are we using AI in our everyday operations? And I'm happy to report that we are using it across the board to improve efficiencies. So, there's a variety of application areas, including manufacturing, product repair, customer support, documentation, and programming, which we're all deploying AI and machine learning. Through these efforts, we will further continue customer satisfaction and cost efficiencies. And then finally, from our operational excellence strategy, we have transitioned to what we call a CxO structure. Yoshida-san deployed this, and it has had very, very profound effects on the company already. The CxOs are responsible and accountable to each of the global operations in the entire group. For example, the CTO takes responsibility on all of the technology and product technologies across the company. What's also very significant is most of the members of the CxO group have been working closely for a long, long time, in many cases, multiple decades. We know each other, we know how each other operates, and we work closely as a team as a result. Advantest will continue these efforts to realize operational excellence on a cross-functional basis under the strong ownership of each CxO. So, now let me go to the financial targets, then we'll come back to the fourth strategy on sustainability to wrap it all up. Okay. So, in order to explain our financial targets, I want to first begin by explaining the markets surrounding us. So, let's look at the outlook for semiconductor market. I'm sure everybody has studied this. This is the foundation for our business growth. So, from this data, there's forecasted CAGR from '23 to 2026 ranges that go from 13% to 18%, depending on the research firm. They all predict robust growth in semiconductor market over the next 3 years. There's also a very strong forecast as to the size of the AI-related semiconductor market in 2026, which will double compared to 2023. So, in terms of both volume and technology, the semiconductor market is expected to benefit from a variety of favorable factors. So, moving from the IC market to our markets. As I've explained so far, our business has expanded through initiatives taken in the past. Our market was limited to semiconductor testers, test handlers, and test peripherals in the past. However, through our efforts over the last 6 years, we have expanded our business portfolio. And all together, we define this now as our core market. We've been expanding this portfolio since 2018. And each time we've added a market in which we can expand, we have raised the potential for sales growth. So, the horizontal bars represent the average market size for each of our midterm business plan periods. The markets in which we do business have grown in a cyclical growth manner with fluctuations. For this reason, we have been using a 3-year average to look at the industry and look at our business to account for those cycles. And the total market size for test-related solutions in which we are currently operating is expected to average approximately $9.2 billion per year over the next 3 years from '24 to 2026, which is our Mid-term Plan 3. We'll aim to further grow in the wider core markets growing [ further ]. So, the market assumptions here. We're using these financial metrics now for the Mid-term Plan 3. As explained in the previous slide, our core market size is $9.2 billion in the next Mid-term Plan, expected to approximately grow by 18%. Within that is the ATE market size, which is almost $6 billion, $5.9 billion. And we expect that growth to be in the 16% plan-over-plan range. By implementing the strategies that I've explained so far, I look forward to further increasing our market share to 58% or above, which would be 4% from the average of our Mid-term Plan #2. Okay. Now we'll outline the targeted financial KPIs for the next Mid-term Plan. Again, in order to evaluate the progress of the plan from a medium- to long-term perspective, we use 3-year averages to level the impact of the industry cycles. So we have selected 5 key strategies -- or sorry, 5 key indicators to focus on over the next 3 years in terms of sales growth, profitability, capital efficiency, and shareholder value. I want to note that we're using JPY 140 to $1 for all of our assumptions as a constant rate. So, if we go through the numbers, you can see the ranges in sales of JPY 560 billion to JPY 700 billion, an operating profit margin between 22% and 28%, a net income of JPY 93 billion to JPY 147 billion, a return on invested capital of 18% to 28%, and earnings per share of JPY 127 to JPY 202. So, it's clear, I'm sure we'll get questions, that the lower limit of some of these indicators is low, and this is mainly due to the current sales and profitability forecast for fiscal 2024. However, we are just on the upswing of a down cycle that carried through from FY '23 into the beginning of FY '24, and we're gaining optimism about FY '24. So, given that, we hope to narrow this range of KPIs and also shift that midpoint to the right and exceed these targets. So finally, as I mentioned in the earnings call in April, we recognized that improving profitability is a key challenge and a key priority for the company, and I'll explain our initiatives going forward in the next slide. I think that's probably in the next couple of slides, actually. So, here you can see this is our cost profit, some people call it earnings target model. So on this slide, I'll explain our approach to improving profitability in the Mid-term Plan using a target model for a single year cost and profit. So, we aim to make the next 3 years to demonstrate overall improvement in our profit structure by improving our gross margin and maximizing our operating leverage, which will ensure medium- to long-term growth potential. So, the figures here are the profitability targets for the Mid-term Plan when using the midpoint between the ranges I showed just now. So from a sales perspective, we expect our midpoint at the JPY 630 billion level, and this will basically be driven by the market demands and the market growth. On the gross margin side, our midpoint level is set at a 53%. We recognize this is low compared to previous Mid-term Plans, and we will have measures to improve this that I'll detail in the next couple of pages. Our SG&A is 28%, and while this is a positive direction from the previous midterms, we will do further efficiency improvements to go even better and be more productive. As part of SG&A, R&D expenses is 11%. The total amount has increased from what we have actually in absolute levels at Japanese yen is higher than what we've done year-over-year in Mid-term Plan to Mid-term Plan, but the percentage obviously is lower as our sales go up and as our productivity improves. And one of the things I want to point out is that because of our market share position, we have the advantage of knowing what our customers require us to develop for the future, and so that is very helpful from what we call R&D hit rate. And that helps our R&D expenses to be very, very efficient because we don't waste dollars or yen on projects that won't turn out to give a return for the company. Our OPM is 25%, so if you add all of those numbers up, it drops out to 25%, and our improvement in the operating model, it should be noted, will support over a 30% operating profit margin any given year, so we've achieved that in the past. That doesn't go away. And depending upon the market cycle and if we execute the initiatives on efficiencies for SG&A and cost of goods sold reduction, we will see this OPM number go even higher. Next one. Okay. So let me talk about the efforts to improve profitability and capital efficiency. So, let's first talk about gross profit margin. So, our gross profit margin has been declining due to a couple of factors, such as change in rising costs from inflation and application mix, what we call product mix. We will give every effort to further improve this margin by increasing the sales of our superior solutions that meet the customer needs and promoting the optimization of supply chain management and production operations. So, there's a lot contained in those words I just mentioned, and I'm sure there'll be more details to come in Q&A and then also in the disclosures that we'll see forthcoming as soon as even next month for our first quarter. Aside from that, we also achieved to stabilize our profitability with our application mix, which I mentioned. Regarding SG&A, part of our pursuit of operational excellence will come through various improvements. We'll optimize SG&A efficiency through improvements in our operational productivity. On the capital efficiency side, we will streamline our working capital through the shortening of our cash conversion cycle, and we'll also achieve appropriate capital structure while maintaining financial soundness. At the same time, we'll increase the value we've created by deepening the use of ROIC, return on invested capital, in businesses and investment management. Next. Okay. Now I want to move to explanation of growth investment and shareholder return policy in the Mid-term Plan 3 period. So, we plan to invest approximately JPY 210 billion in R&D over the next 3 years, which amounts to 1.2x the amount of the previous Mid-term Plan. We'll use that R&D in part related to superior test solution investment is something also related we call Automation of Test. The capital expenditures are planned to be approximately JPY 60 billion, the same level as the Mid-term Plan 2 results. We'll also plan to actively invest in IT, which will form the basis of various efficiency improvements. With regard to strategic investments such as M&A, we'll actively seek the most strategic opportunities that will lead to organic and inorganic growth in our core business and expansion of our adjacent markets. In terms of shareholder returns, regarding dividends, we will make a stable and continuous dividend with a minimum amount of JPY 30 per year. For total return, we'll set a target to achieve a cumulative return ratio of 50% or more, including share repurchase over the 3 years of the Mid-term Plan 3. However, this shareholder policy may be revised in the event of investment growth opportunities that require more funds than expected and/or the deterioration of business performance due to changes in our market environment. I'm sure everybody understands those disclaimers from all companies that we reserve the right to invest for the betterment of our corporate value, which I think everyone would appreciate. Next page. This talks further about capital allocation in our next plan. So, in terms of -- I would say the headline for this picture is the operating cash flow. We expect a very, very large amount of free cash flow to come in from our businesses. And so, controlling for the operating expenses and the deduction of R&D expenses, we expect to have more than JPY 600 billion over the 3-year period. So, compared to the Mid-term Plan 2, this is a very, very strong level of cash income. So, everyone is going to ask, what do we plan to do with the cash? So in the midst of the expected medium- to long-term growth of the semi market, we'll allocate as shown in this figure; again, prioritizing growth investments in order to maximize the value we will create in the future. We are committed to further strengthening our growth foundation in order to steadily convert medium- to long-term growth opportunities, such as increasingly complex semiconductor testing into greater value. And by further enhancing the value we provide to each of our stakeholders based on our strengthening business foundation, we hope to continue to be a company that embodies the new vision statement that I mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, be the most trusted and valued test solution company in the semiconductor value chain over the long term. So while prioritizing investments for business and strategic growth, we also focus on returns of our shareholders. So, our basic policy is, as I explained in the previous slide, however, with a surplus of cash, if it arises beyond the use, we will return these to shareholders by dividend or share repurchase or both. Well, I'm okay. Yes. Thank you. Okay. I'm going to wrap up with perhaps the most important pages of the presentation, which is bringing this all together through our sustainability initiatives, so as a key strategy, which is to enhance sustainability. So, before moving out, I really want to talk about what this means to the company now. ESG lots of times has been used as a political football. And so, we have redefined what sustainability means for the company, which there's quotations that I've used for the company, which is, meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This is a very powerful, important thing, especially for a company like ours, who has been around for now, 70 years and intends to be here for many more 70-year periods. So we always take a long-term view and act on the behalf of our communities, our employees, environment, and our customers and shareholders, while at the same time, improving profits in the medium term. Okay. So, here we see the 6 key stakeholders that the company has. So our policy, our commitment, our mandate is to further strengthen our foundation for enhancing our corporate value through proactive and positive action on sustainability issues, responsible business activities, enhanced risk management, enhancement of corporate governance to earn greater trust from each of these stakeholders. At one of the hearts of Advantest is our culture, and this page speaks to our commitment to culture. So, for further enhancement to society, we believe it's utmost important to create a foundation for each employee to work towards expanding the value provided to the stakeholders they face. I credit Yoshida-san for creating the integrity core value system within Advantest, and it's something I intend to carry forward. We realized this integrity as a core value in 2019, and since then, we've been focusing on these initiatives to disseminate it throughout the whole company. By further deepening the cultivation of common values, we continue to be a company that ultimately is needed by society at the same time responds to the demands of the society. Based on the shared values cultivated in our core values, we'll promote our contribution to the global environment by reducing emissions in the scope 1 and 2 by 65%, raising renewable energy usage to 80%, and reducing energy consumption by shortening the production period of major products by 20%. We're tackling all of these things and improving our methodologies to contribute to these initiatives of emission reduction. It's a priority for the whole planet. We would like to collaborate within our industry, associates in other companies in our industry become a company that's capable of measuring the value we're providing to society, and we will proceed in our Automation of Tests, which is a key strategy to deploy the idea of catching the failures to help improve the yield along the semiconductor lifecycle to prevent wasting of natural resources and energy. And before you click it, this is a very critical area. It's something that our customers and our suppliers are constantly talking about, is how do we avoid waste? And just fractions of a percent of yield savings can address a huge amount of emissions if we work together. And so, this is a very, very real and important part of our company strategy and something I intend to talk more about in the future. Okay. So, lastly, I'd like to talk about our purpose and mission. Maybe I should have started with this, but I think it's great to end with it too. So, today, many of the advanced technologies, such as AI, which is everywhere in the news, all over the place, all of these things are realized by semiconductors. And these semiconductors are requiring lots of power. And so, we have to make efficient use of energy and reduce the consumption, no doubt. In other words, semiconductors are indispensable for the realization of a sustainable society, the development of various industries and people's lives. And based on our purpose and mission of enabling leading-edge technologies, we will contribute to the realization of safe, secure, comfortable, and sustainable society through semiconductor testing. We're living in an era of complexity, and that makes it difficult for us to predict the future, but we're going to embark on a new voyage together with our stakeholders.

So, let me end just on a few words on behalf of Advantest. So, this year marks the 70th anniversary of Advantest founding. We'll continue to work to ensure that we remain a company that contributes to the sustainability and development of society by enabling leading-edge technologies, even in our 100th year of founding. By the way, my 26th anniversary in the company was, I think, yesterday. And I was born in 1970, so maybe some nice magic for this Mid-term Plan briefing. Anyway, I want to express my sincere gratitude to all of our stakeholders for your continued support. So, that's all from me. Thank you for your attention.