Altium LLC (ALU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
June 17, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Altium Investor Call. [Operator Instructions] And just please be advised that today's call is being recorded. But without further ado, I'll hand the conference over to your first speaker for today, Chairman, Sam Weiss. Thank you, and please go ahead, Sam.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Altium Investor call to share details of our vision for electronic industry transformation and our strategy for value creation. Joining me today is our Chief Executive, Aram Mirkazemi, who is in our headquarters in La Jolla, California; and our Chief Financial Officer, Martin Ive, who is with me in Chatswood in Sydney. During the call, Aram will demonstrate why Altium is uniquely positioned within the global electronics design and manufacturing industry and how our cloud platform, Altium 365; and our industry partner platform, Nexar, connect the electronics value chain from beginning to end. Altium management will reiterate their commitment to the achievement of the Altium aspirational 2025 financial goal of revenue of $500 million and 100,000 subscribers. And I will address why the Altium Board of Directors recently rejected an unsolicited acquisition offer from Autodesk, Inc. Our CFO, Martin Ive, will provide a brief trading update at the end of the call. Please note, as a reminder, today's call and the question-and-answer section at the end may include forward-looking statements regarding Altium products, its future operations or its financial performance. Any such statements are based on current assumptions by Altium management and are subject to risks and uncertainty that may cause actual events and results to differ materially. Please note that all numbers are in U.S. dollars unless specified otherwise. This call will be recorded and will be made available on our website later today. I'd now like to introduce Chief Executive Officer of Altium Limited, Aram Mirkazemi.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveThank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. As someone who is passionate about Altium and our journey of transformation, given the circumstances that we're in, I feel it is important for me to share with you details of Altium's transformative vision and our strategy for value creation. I also would like to share with you why Altium is a unique asset in the industry. I'm speaking to you today as Altium's CEO but also as a significant shareholder myself. Since I returned back to Altium in 2010, the company has gone from trading at less than $1 to now trade in the $30-plus range. I believe that if Altium can continue to execute on its growth strategy, a lot more shareholder value will be created. This is why I support the Altium Board position to reject Autodesk's first and only offer of $38.50. I have a deep conviction that Altium is uniquely positioned in the engineering software industry and that it can execute on its strategy of transformation through dominance to deliver unprecedented value to its shareholders. Delivering value for our shareholders has been a hallmark of Altium. I'm proud to say that through extremely focused execution, we have delivered an industry-leading performance with 8 consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth and expanding margin. Altium has established a history of setting and achieving long-term strategic goals and financial targets. In 2014, we set ourselves an aspirational goal of $100 million in revenue to demonstrate that Altium can perform with potential to lead the industry. We overachieved and delivered $110 million in 2017. In 2016, we set ourselves the aspirational goal of $200 million in revenue to claim market leadership. With 3 months to go, analysts' consensus pointed to a revenue target of around $210 million, but sadly, with COVID going rampant, we fell short at the end of FY '20. In 2019, we set ourselves the aspirational goal of $500 million in revenue and 100,000 subscribers to claim market dominance as a prerequisite for industry transformation. I'm sure that we will achieve this goal by 2025 in the same way that we did the ones in the past. It's never easy, but given our past performances, we are confident to back ourselves. Though these aspirational goals are strategic in nature, we never lose sight of our true north, and that is value creation for our shareholders. We have been highly focused on delivering value at every stage of our strategy, which has been the underpinning of the success of our journey from market leadership to industry transformation through dominance. In this phase of our journey, we are targeting 100,000 active subscribers to compel key industry stakeholders to support our vision for industry transformation. The key components of our strategy in this next phase of our journey is our new cloud platform, Altium 365, which is driving our pursuit to unify and to align the electronics industry. Our cloud-based integration platform, Nexar, which is supporting our desire for partnering and building a digital ecosystem, is critical for industry transformation. What I would like to say next is perhaps the most important part of my presentation, and that is why strategic partners are interested in Altium. Why is it that this block of land is so highly sought after in the engineering software industry? First, it is critically important to recognize that electronics sit at the heart of all smart products. By way of example and something that is very topical, NASA's Mars Ingenuity Helicopter, which has to function independently on a distant planet, and I'm proud to say that its electronics were designed using Altium software. The second critical thing is I appreciate the significance of the electronics industry in the bigger context of the engineering world. To demonstrate this, industry research shows that electronics are responsible for 40% of a new car's total cost. This is most significant with electronics being part of a car's central information display, engine control system, anti-lock brake systems, transmission sensors, radar, audio systems, self-driving, to name us a few. Through Altium's growing dominance and its innovative approach to the cloud, Altium is leading the electronics industry in a way that makes Altium unique in the engineering software ecosystem. More specifically, Altium software and cloud services provide the unique bridges that connect the product design world to electronic design and, subsequently, to the electronic supply chain and the manufacturing of electronics products. With this strong early adoption of our cloud platform, we are evolving from our PCB design origins, are now playing an essential and growing role in the design and manufacturing of smart products that spans manufacturability and productivity, research and influence and component sourcing. All of this effectively means that Altium's products and platforms, through Altium 365, Nexar, Octopart, are unique bridges that connect electronics to the rest of the engineering world. These unique bridges are indispensable components of digital transformation that is taking place throughout product design and manufacturing companies around the world. At the highest end of the product design and manufacturing companies such as Dassault and Siemens, they require centralized, fully integrated solutions to deliver a singular platform for digital transformation. For other players, bringing digital transformation to the mainstream through cloud and SaaS offerings is the key strategy. Bringing digital transformation to the masses through long-haul collaboration between design, manufacturing and supply chain is yet another strategy that is pursued. All of these need to have access to the electronics industry, which is central and economically most significant for manufacturing of smart connected products. I can tell you that in this regard, Altium is unique to the industry, and there is no real alternative. Of course, having created a unique position within the global engineering industry of itself is not enough. We must continue to execute well. I'm absolutely confident that we have both a winning strategy and strong execution capability to realize the promising and even a greater future for Altium. The early adoption of our cloud platform, Altium 365, is most encouraging and continues to surpass our expectations. Today, we have over 13,000 monthly active users and over 6,000 monthly active accounts on Altium 365. However, to succeed, we must execute well and achieve large-scale adoption. At the core of our execution plan, our 4 flywheels for driving large-scale adoption, we have been highly focused on the spinning of these 4 flywheels, which, at their early stages, take a lot of effort and energy, but once they get going, there will be sights to behold. This same flywheel phenomenon underpin our journey to market leadership through our transactional sales with an awesome operating leverage and performance over many years. These new flywheels will power the execution of our strategy by driving the adoption of our cloud platform with a focus on moving design data and processes on to Altium 365. These flywheels will drive the adoption of our ecosystem with a focus on industry partners and their respective users to connect to Altium 365 via our cloud-based integration platform, Nexar. As these flywheels build up momentum, they will drive further adoption of our design tools with a focus on expanding reach and volume through our new digital sales platform. These flywheels also drive the adoption of our design platform with a focus on the high end of the market through our NEXUS product. Our move to the cloud and growing adoption by our customers is changing our traditional maintenance subscription to become more SaaS-like revenue as our customers move their design activities onto Altium 365. We estimate that by 2025, our recurring revenue will rise from around 60% today to be 80% or more. We are also seeing a continued demand for term-based licensing, which Martin will speak to later in the call. In addition, Altium 365 and Nexar will provide unique opportunities for direct monetization. While this is not our focus in the short term, as large-scale adoption remains our singular focus, in time, a range of direct monetization opportunities will come from business models such as premium services similar to Amazon Prime or transaction fees similar to Airbnb. We just need to be patient and focus on large-scale adoption. One other benefit of our cloud-first strategy is its natural promotion of term-based licensing for software tools. We have had a great response from our customers in adopting the cloud, and that is facilitating our business model transition in a way that is natural and not forced. Our business model transition to term-based licensing is perhaps the biggest value-creation event in Altium's history. As demonstrated by a successful number of software companies, such as Adobe, Autodesk and PTC, who have transitioned their software business model to recurring revenue and created a tremendous amount of value for their shareholders, I'm sure that this opportunity for value creation in relation to Altium is not lost on Autodesk. The Altium Board and Altium's leadership team is highly focused on executing with intensity and focus to capitalize on the changes that have been made, the opportunity that is before us and the rising momentum that is coming from Altium 365 from our users, the industry and strategic partners. With recent events, I know that there have been some commentators who are speculating whether Altium remains committed to its 2025 financial goals. Let me categorically say that we remain firmly committed to achieving our aspirational 2025 goals of $500 million and 100,000 subscribers. One thing that is worth mentioning is that unlike our previous phases of growth, for this next phase, we have shared a flight path with the market. Having moved into the ASX 100, we felt there was a heightened need by the investment community to model Altium's growth trajectory. Since 2020, we have shared our flight path with the market to assist with their modeling. As you all know, with COVID, we adjusted our flight path and introduced prevaccine transition and post transition as legs of that flight path. I'm pleased to say that the first leg that ends at the conclusion of this financial year is being successfully completed as we are on target or close enough to our guided range. With the second leg, we must get into double-digit revenue growth, which our second half performance this year is encouraging as we have now returned back to double-digit revenue growth. The key is the third leg starting from FY '23, where we need to get into the 20-plus growth rate to make up for the lost momentum from COVID and the effect of pivot to the cloud. That is when we need those flywheels to be running with full force. There is also an M&A component to our flight path. As you know, M&A comprises 10% to 20% of our flight path to $500 million. I would like to remind everyone that M&A is for strategic purposes in the same way that our divestment of power scheme was for a strategic move rather than keeping it as a mere prop to support our path to the $500 million. But there is one more thing that may not have been obvious for this leg of our journey, and that is significance of a strategic partnership with a big engineering software brand such as Dassault, ANSYS, PTC and Autodesk. Not only is this relevant to reaching our $500 million, it is also necessary for our end-to-end market dominance that is a prerequisite for transformation. There lies Altium's dilemma, and that's why we are here today. As with all strategic partners who are important for Altium's success, our partnership begins by focusing on value creation for the customer. Once the enormity of the opportunities rebuild, it turns to M&A discussion, and the conversation moves to value creation for respective shareholders. This is where we are with Autodesk now. Based on the above, and in recognition of Altium's unique position in the industry, any M&A activity by a single strategic partner would, in my view, need to include a significant premium in recognition of the scarcity of this asset and the opportunity cost for shareholder value creation foregone with other strategic partners. My personal view, which I feel strongly about, given the uniqueness of Altium and its position in the industry, is a strategic investment by the strategic partner in Altium as an alternative path that can overcome some of the challenges mentioned and deliver the most value-creation path for Altium shareholders. This, however, is ultimately a matter for our shareholders to decide. Before I pass over to Sam, I hope that I have been able to share with you my excitement about Altium's future, why I believe that we are uniquely positioned within the engineering ecosystem and our confidence that we have the right strategy and the ability to successfully execute to create a truly special future for our shareholders. I will now hand over to our Chairman, Sam.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Aram. As the Chairman of Altium, and as a long time significant shareholder in the company, I'm pleased to share with you my thinking and that of the Board of Directors about the unique value of Altium. As Aram has well articulated, Altium is ideally positioned to transform the global electronics industry. Our Altium 365/Nexar platform is gaining strong adoption, and it is well on its way to becoming an open marketplace for the design and manufacture of printed circuit boards. It delivers a fully transparent view of the PCB creation process from the point that an engineer first has an idea for an electronics product to the sourcing of the parts for that printed circuit board to the fabrication of it with open access for all interested parties, whether they are engineers in allied fields or suppliers, purchasing agents or manufacturers. In this way, Altium 365/Nexar is different from the digital platforms of other large software engineering companies, whose principal benefit is to bring a suite of tools from a single owner to a customer. The opportunity for Altium to establish Altium Designer as the PCB design tool of choice for all engineers, from those working on their own to the teams of engineers building sophisticated electronics products such as automobiles or airplanes at the world's largest companies and to create Altium 365 as the manufacturing platform for the electronics industry is very rare indeed. And we believe is deserving of support, especially when both Altium Designer and Altium 365 are built upon a strong foundation of our industry-leading position in PCB design software. That position of strength in software design, as Aram outlined earlier, also has considerable upside potential as we move from the market leader to the de facto standard for PCB design tools. The Altium Board of Directors recently received an expression of interest in the form of an unsolicited offer from Autodesk, Inc. to acquire our company. We have long thought of Autodesk as one of the great engineering companies in the world and one for whom we have the utmost respect. Our management team and their counterparts at Autodesk have had a series of discussions for some time about how our 2 companies could collaborate and form a partnership that reflected our similar visions for the future of engineering software. When those conversations very recently changed to one about an acquisition of Altium, we were quite respectful of Autodesk, and we gave them an opportunity to engage directly with us about the value of Altium. Having said that, the Altium Board does not believe that the unsolicited offer of $38.50 per share reflects the value of Altium and its potential in both PCB design software and in the Altium 365/Nexar platform and, therefore, is not in the interest of our shareholders to pursue at the current price. However, we believe that we have an open and honest working relationship with the CEO and President of Autodesk, and we will continue to engage with him about the value of Altium. We also appreciate that the multiples offered by Autodesk in their proposal are high by industry standards, but we maintain that they do not recognize the underlying value in our company. In fact, we believe that Autodesk also recognizes the future value of the Altium software and platform and that their offer to acquire the company is, in some part, a reflection of their own conviction of the value that they can extract as the owner of Altium. Of course, as a public company, we are always mindful of shareholder value, and we have no preconceived resistance to an acquisition of Altium. However, we believe it should be at the point and at a price that reflects the unique value of Altium as a company and its demonstrated and future wealth creation potential. I'd like to now introduce Martin Ive, Chief Financial Officer of Altium.
Martin Ive
executiveThank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. It is pleasing to see that momentum is returning to Altium's business with a stronger second half. However, after a slow first half due to COVID impacts and our pivot to the cloud, the full year is likely to be at the low end of our guidance range. We anticipate that for fiscal 2021 revenue to be at or slightly below the low end of guidance of USD 190 million to $195 million. EBITDA margin is expected to be at the low end of the guided range of 37% to 39% on an underlying basis, excluding M&A costs and the write-back of the SOLIDWORKS minimum contractual amount due to the termination of the contracts. Altium's renewal business is performing strongly. Octopart is set for a record performance, and our China business is also delivering a very solid second half performance. We continue to observe an increase in demand for term-based licenses, which is a positive for future recurring revenue with a much larger portion of new licenses sold in Q4 being term-based. The increase in new term-based license sales has been at the expense of new perpetual license sales, particularly in North America and Europe. As Aram mentioned, Altium's adoption of its cloud platform, Altium 365, is performing strongly with over 13,100 monthly active users and over 6,300 monthly active accounts. I'll now hand over for Q&A.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] But your first question today comes from the line of Lucy Huang from the Bank of America.
Lucy Huang
analystSo I have 3 questions. So firstly, are you able to talk through kind of manufacturing in the Nexar ecosystem? And what's the progress like in terms of getting interest from manufacturing partners or how many have signed up to this decision on the manufacturing side? And then secondly, are you able to talk to Altium 365 Pro? You have begun to monetize that package. So are you able to give us some color as to how many subscribers are now taking on this additional -- or paying for this additional product? And then just thirdly, you mentioned that the third and fourth quarter have seen a higher take-up of the term-based license. So just wondering if you can give us some color as to what proportion of the base is now sitting on a term-based versus a normal subscription.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Lucy. This is Sam. I'm going to try to use an American term, be the quarterback in terms of handling the question. So the first 2 questions were about our platform. Firstly, about manufacturing partners and progress there. And the second was about the monetization of Altium 365 Pro, if I understood you correctly, and Aram will address those. And then for an update on our progress on term-based licenses in the second half, Martin Ive will make a few comments. So Aram, if you could talk about the platform. Thanks.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveThanks, Sam, and thanks, Lucy. With the manufacturing supply chain ecosystem, that is essentially the endgame for Altium 365. So there's a lot of work going into that in America, in China and also now in Europe. We have made some investments in a very promising company that some of you might have seen the press release around that, which essentially brings elastic manufacturing, and that has been a big step for us because that's a component that has to be done. But the main thing for us is the customer and being able to present this to customers on 365 in a way that they would prefer the Altium's way of manufacturing, which we actually call Altimade. We are set to raise cash on that in January 2022, and we're going through the last miles. Now in China, also making good progress, but I'll -- that's probably a more China-centric question. It's a different ecosystem, if you like, but we're making good progress there as well. But I'll ask Martin to answer the second question.
Martin Ive
executiveSure. So Lucy, in terms of the Pro level subscription, we have around 2,000 seats that are under a Pro level subscription. So that's approximately 4% of the total subscriber base. And then just in terms of term-based licenses, and this is relating to outside of China, China is pretty much all perpetual licenses. But outside of China, with new license sales, we saw about 33% of those being term-based in Q3, and it's around 45% to 50% so far in Q4, although we would expect that to change somewhat in the last 2 weeks of the quarter. So that may well change by the time we report numbers in August.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Martin. Moderator? Go ahead, Lucy.
Lucy Huang
analystSo I had a follow-up question for Aram in relation to manufacturing. So am I able to clarify that right now, the vision is to direct customers ultimately onto the Altimade over time as the preferred partner in full actual manufacturing of the PCB rather than third party?
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveYes. Yes, that is the intention.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Lucy.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Quinn Pierson from Crédit Suisse.
Quinn Pierson
analystA couple for me. Maybe firstly, in your prepared remarks, I think I heard you mention that a strategic investment might make a bit of sense from a shareholder perspective. Could you maybe just elaborate on that comment, kind of what kind of forms might make sense, i.e., minority or majority investment? Would that potentially be an exclusive arrangement with a potential partner? If you could just elaborate on what might make sense in that area, that would be great, please.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you. Quinn, I'll ask Aram to comment on that because the -- that was in his section. But firstly, I think we should make it clear, if we haven't already, that we enjoy very positive relationships with all of the large engineering software companies that are in the broader industry that enable customers to build electronics partnerships. And we -- particularly since we have developed Altium 365, those conversations about collaboration and partnership have intensified because, as we said, we want to make Altium 365 open for anyone who is interested in building electronics part -- products. And those conversations sometimes lead to really an open conversation about whether making a strategic investment in Altium would or wouldn't make sense for one of those industry partners. But Aram might comment on that from his perspective.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveLook, Slide 14 is a good slide to refer to in terms of the commercial significance of partnership. In that slide, you see this 3 levels. And it's really important to appreciate the significance of this for the whole industry and the opportunity for value creation for Altium shareholders. With regard to the high end of the market, the partnership, in its commercial context, is to deliver a centralized, fully integrated solution to deliver a singular platform for digital transformation. You see it at the top. For the mainstream, bringing digital transformation to the mainstream through cloud and SaaS solutions. And that's for the mainstream, and that's for [indiscernible] to a singular platform. That second one is more of an open-platform ecosystem play. And the third one is bringing digital transformation to the masses through long-haul collaboration between design, manufacturing and supply chain. The key to recognize here is that these 3 dimensions are [indiscernible]. They are not competing. Each dimension has got bonafide, legitimate customers that can benefit in the electronic sense from this integration and connection. All those are value-creation opportunities. Now Altium just goes with one in an exclusive way. It is true that our true north, our shareholders, but customers are also stakeholders. There are many customers who'd be deprived of those others. It essentially means the value creation for our shareholders would be limited to only a segment of the market. So logically, and this is my personal view, and I mentioned this, that this is ultimately a decision that has to be made by Altium shareholders, but I have a logical perspective on this. The perfect scenario is that if Altium could actually serve all these customers so that they can all access these bridges onto the electronics platform. But the key thing is that such a relationship has to be commercial and significant in that way for the -- for serving the customer. I hope I have answered your question.
Quinn Pierson
analystThat's helpful. But I guess following along to that, I guess could you maybe elaborate on, I guess, a little bit more detail, what a partnership with some of these large EDA companies might look like? And I guess my question -- I guess where I'm coming at this from is Altium has aspirations to build a key platform and build out an ecosystem, but I guess these other EDA companies have kind of equal aspirations to have, I guess, control eyeballs, control customers and build out their own platform. So I guess my question is what might these partnerships look like more from a commercial arrangement perspective such that everyone kind of feels like they're winning. And related to that, the Dassault opportunity or partnership didn't quite work out, I think, maybe related to this type of friction. I guess why do we think partnerships with some of these other players will work out better? So sorry, a bit of a long question there, but any kind of comments on that would be helpful, please.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveI understand that question. And Sam, if I can answer that question.
Samuel Weiss
executiveYes. Please do.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveThere's a slide, Slide #12, and this addresses this question. Industry solutions are moving to the cloud and giving rise to a system of ecosystems. This is really important, system of ecosystems, not a single ecosystem, a system of ecosystems, very much in the same way that Internet was the system of networks rather than replacing any of the existing networks. That's the key. And you can see Office, which was the king of desktop integration, it has transitioned to Office 365 where you have Atlassian, where you have Slack, where you have Box and Salesforce and Azure and is not bound to the Windows platform. This system of ecosystems is the future of engineering software as there are so many verticals that, in silos, there is no way that one platform can actually sell all of them for mainstream. I appreciate that for the very high end, maybe for Boeing and Airbus, a singular platform is necessary. But for the majority of companies, there needs to be a system of ecosystems. And in that regard, best-of-breed wins in the cloud, and that requires unbundling on the desktop and rebundling on the cloud. So just think of our world the same way you see Atlassian, Zoom, Slack, Box, Google Drive there is systems of ecosystems.
Quinn Pierson
analystThat's helpful. That's helpful color. Just lastly for me, please, just on kind of more short-term trading considerations. So in the December half, you called out there was about a $1 million revenue headwind from mix shift to term licenses. It looks like that mix shift is accelerating. I can see with some of your pricing changes with term licenses on discounts, a perpetual price rise coming. It looks like you're trying to accelerate that shift. Is there any, I guess, guidance you could provide in terms of how to be thinking about the annual revenue headwind over the next couple of periods from that mix shift?
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Quinn. Martin will comment on the mix of our license sales.
Martin Ive
executiveSure. Thanks, Sam. So Quinn, we would expect the second half impact will be somewhere in the $3 million to $4 million range, albeit we've still got 2 weeks of the quarter left to go. And as you know, they're generally the busiest 2 weeks of the year. We haven't -- we still want to proceed, from a licensing perspective, in giving customers choice as to whether they use perpetual or term-based licensing, which makes it difficult to call out a specific number in terms of what a headwind may be in the short term as more customers pick up term-based licenses. But our view is that this is an extremely positive thing in the longer term as that recurring revenue base grows over years 2 and 3 of the customer's life cycle. So whilst there may be a short-term headwind, we feel that the benefit from customers moving to that recurring revenue stream is much more beneficial.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Martin. Thank you very much, Quinn.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Siraj Ahmed from Citigroup.
Siraj Ahmed
analystI have 3 questions. Just the first one, can you give us an update on Autodesk, not regarding the bid, but just more on the strategic partnership side, given they're an important player in the ecosystem, where that's standing at?
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Ahmed. In the call, we've, I think, well canvassed our view of the acquisition. Aram has been across the discussions at the management level in terms of collaboration, and he can share a brief update on the status of them.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveSiraj, this is Aram. The tier that -- on the Slide 14, I see Fusion 360. And I see Fusion 360 as quite promising for the masses of engineers. It's very popular. It's something that Altium is very attractive towards in connecting Altium 365/Nexar to Fusion 360 and [ their Forge ], which is equivalent of Nexar. It's exciting, and we've been working on that. And essentially, in my view, the transformational scenario, the transformational scenario is going to be most resonant with Fusion 360. And they have done really well. I have a lot of respect for Fusion 360 platform. And I believe that Altium 365 and Nexar is a perfect match with Fusion 360 and in the pursuit of transformation. One thing about Autodesk that is also worth mentioning is that they have always viewed that their customers and their users do not design things. They make things. Their legendary CEO, Carl Bass, that was his mantra, that our -- users don't design things. They make things. So for them, merging, converging design and make is a big thing, maybe even bigger than our vision of connecting design to manufacturing floor. But you can see that these 2 can now be so resonant. And of course, that is the thesis for the partnership, and there is a great deal of excitement around that.
Siraj Ahmed
analystOkay. So would it be fair to say the discussions are ongoing, Aram? Or just because of the bid, has that now stopped somewhat?
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveFusion 360 and Altium 365, they're so, so close and compatible in terms of like hand in glove. So I'm pretty sure that the connection is going to be made one way or another. And of course, because of the situation we're in, we just have to deal with this. But I very much hope that Autodesk, regardless of the outcome and the decision that's being made by the Board and our shareholders, would continue to collaborate with us. Or if we ended up being with Autodesk, I very much look forward to pursuing this transformational journey, which, to be honest, is most exciting part of Altium.
Siraj Ahmed
analystGot it. And Aram, the 3 other logos in there, what about the partnerships with them? Can you just -- where are the discussions on that?
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveWell, bringing transformation to the mainstream, there are so many large companies that they are not electronic-centric like John Deere, Caterpillar and so forth, but they do require electronics, and they need to have digital transformation to go through this last mile into the electronics. So PTC is a perfect partner for us with that. And with Ansys, the perfect partner for us to get into the advanced electronics as the simulation tools are world best. And of course, the 3DEXPERIENCE has track record that our view that the significance of that, there are many circumstances or, if not more, the 3DEXPERIENCE will be the right partner for us.
Siraj Ahmed
analystGot it. The second thing, just on the trading update. Maybe this one is for Martin. But just the weakness in U.S., that's a bit of a surprise, given the economy has opened up. Can you just touch on that? And secondly, are you assuming that there's a pickup in perpetual license in the next 2 weeks when you give the guidance update?
Martin Ive
executiveYes. So just to clarify, regarding the U.S. comments, [ they're around the ] switch to term licensing. So whilst the number of perpetual licenses may have reduced from last year, this is because customers are choosing to switch to term-based licensing. And that's really what's kind of driven any change in the U.S. We expect over the next 2 weeks to have a switch more to perpetual license sales. As you're aware, there has been a promotion on term-based licenses over the last couple of months, which ends tomorrow or today in Asia and Friday in the U.S. tomorrow. And we expect that we will see a ramp-up in perpetual license sales over the next 2 weeks as we close out the quarter.
Siraj Ahmed
analystGot it. So Martin, just to clarify, you're saying the license sales in the U.S. itself was doing okay. It's just that the [indiscernible].
Martin Ive
executive[ The first 2, I guess ].
Siraj Ahmed
analystOkay. And last thing from me, just on M&A. On your own M&A, Aram, maybe just can you give an update on that because that's part of your FY '25 targets?
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveYes. As I said, M&A is a component of our flight path and is strategic in nature for us now that we've got this [ increases, field board ] opened up in supply chain, in manufacturing. There is -- like you see in the Slide 15, Altium is not going to get into factories and so on, but there is a layer that sits between factory floor and the customer in terms of all the things that need to happen between a factory and a customer getting his product. And we have been looking at various opportunities. There was one that we came marginally close, and we put every bit of our asset into it a month ago or [indiscernible]. And yes, it's now -- the field has opened up, and that's something that we're definitely very active on it. But again, I'd like to remind that this is not for revenue. This is a strategic reason. And you can see that we've divested tasking for a strategic reason. We could have kept it to prop our path to $500 million, but we didn't. So we're very kind of true to ourselves, and M&A is, again, a key part of our strategy.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Siraj.
Operator
operatorYour next question just comes from the line of Roger Samuel from Jefferies.
Roger Samuel
analystFirst one is just going back to your Slide 20. You got a pie chart there showing the mix of the software business, excluding Nexar revenue in first half fiscal '21. I'm just wondering if you can tell us what the Nexar revenue was in the first half '21. And what sort of proportion of revenue do you expect to come from Nexar going forward?
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you. Go ahead, Aram. Go ahead.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveAs I said in the formal part of this presentation, our focus is singularly on the adoption of our cloud platform. Direct monetization of our platform in time will come. We just need to be patient as we don't want to lose the [indiscernible]. There are examples there, Siraj (sic) [ Roger ]. Premium services, just like Amazon Prime, transaction fees and manufacturing, just like Airbnb. We just can't get ahead of ourselves. It's absolutely important. We're putting everything in to get the cloud adoption. Our cloud adoption is really, really impressive in the engineering world. Engineering world is not like Facebook or Instagram where you can just adopt it over 2 clicks. You have to spend weeks to actually move your whole design projects into the cloud. That's where the money is. That's where the value creation is for customers. And we've got to stay focused on that.
Martin Ive
executiveSo Roger, this is Martin. I think the point on that slide is that it excludes the Octopart revenue from the first half.
Roger Samuel
analystOkay. Got you. Yes. All right. And my second question is just on your guidance from now until FY '25 and your margin for the next 2 to 3 years still around, call it, 36% to 39% margin. But I'm just wondering how comfortable you are with that margin forecast, given that you need to work harder to sell more term-based licenses. I imagine you to market the product a lot harder to more users.
Samuel Weiss
executiveMartin has got a response, Roger.
Martin Ive
executiveYes. One of the points that Aram raised during the call was around spinning up the flywheels, and one of those is the digital sales channel. And our thinking is as more of our products and service moves to the cloud, that we would have the benefit of that digital sales channel flywheel, which would reduce the cost of selling versus an enterprise sales channel or our traditional transactional sales channels. And that's -- when you look at companies like Atlassian, much more of their business is conducted online, whether that's through the actual platform itself or without the need for a heavy sales involvement. And that's something that we see as customers adopt the cloud, and they're able to kind of go through a self-service process rather than deal in a large-scale engagement with the sales channel.
Roger Samuel
analystOkay. All right. And just a quick one on FY '25 target and 100,000 subscribers. Is that organic number to get to $345 million to $423 million? Or does that 100,000 subscribers correspond to the $500 million in revenue?
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Roger. You're asking whether there's a correlation of the 100,000 subscribers to $500 million or whether the number of subscribers will be lower if the revenue is at $420 million, [ broadly ]. So...
Roger Samuel
analystYes. That's right.
Martin Ive
executiveSo the 100,000 corresponds to the range that we provide around that $400 million number. The additional revenue, as we've discussed, would potentially come from M&A. Now that may bring additional subscribers to the platform. But the 100,000 is really related to that range as opposed to the $500 million.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Roger.
Operator
operatorWe have another question from Paul Mason from E&P.
Paul Mason
analystI just had 3. The first one is just maybe a clarifying point on the guidance. The write-back of the SOLIDWORKS mean contractual amount, so is that a onetime gain that you're excluding? Or is that an expense that you're excluding? It wasn't quite clear.
Martin Ive
executiveSure. That's a onetime expense that we're excluding.
Paul Mason
analystOkay. Now in terms of your Altium 365 user adoption, I just wondered if you could give us a bit of color on sort of the mix that our Altium Designer subscribers are license holders versus people that are sort of sitting in the ecosystem, given you want it to be sort of a central collaboration platform? Is it mainly coming from your subscribers purchasing alongside -- or taking up alongside Designer? Or are you starting to see like manufacturers sort of collaborate with your Designer audience?
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you. It's mainly Altium Designer customers, and they're the most important ones. They are the ones we're focused on because without them, other participants would not be attracted to go to the platform. There are quite a number of mechanical designers that are actually connecting. Many of them actually are excited by the fact by having it through Altium 365 they can have a different experience in connecting to their ECAD colleagues and ECAD systems. And there are collaborations beyond just PCB designers. But our focus and the main participants are Altium PCB designers at this stage here.
Paul Mason
analystOkay. Great. And just the last question for me was just a sort of a clarifying point. You guys have talked sort of around this a bit, so apologies for sort of [ repeating ] it. But on sort of Slide 11 and then also on Slide 13, you're very clearly placing Altium 365 in a completely separate field from, say, Dassault's, 3DEXPERIENCE, ThingWorx and sort of by implication Autodesk Forge product, which is sort of also collaboration platforms. And so is your vision that basically Altium 365 doesn't actually go head-to-head with those collaboration platforms? They literally just sit side by side, and there's different forms of collaboration going on in each of those platforms, and they're both required to exist side by side for the transformation of the industry? Or do you regard those platforms as things that you sort of need to win an audience against -- yes, maybe if you could expand on that.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThanks, Paul. Aram, do you want to comment on that?
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveIt's absolutely the case that these ecosystems, these platforms are complementary. I would say that they're 99.9% complementary. I don't even know that 0.1% was, again, that would make them overlapping. This is not collaboration in the radar, for example, Atlassian collaboration, which is teamwork. This is computer-aided collaboration. We call it model-based collaboration, which means that collaboration happens at the model level. With engineering work, there is an incredible complexity associated with models. Now electronic models are entirely different to mechanical models, entirely different to simulation models. And collaboration happens in the context of the model is [ merging control its trade ] is an entire different world to the concept of collaboration or social collaboration. Think of social collaboration like traffic design. Think of mobile-based collaboration like CAD. They superficially looks the same because they got lines and rectangles and squares. But they're entirely different, and the difference is the fact that it's model-based. It changes the nature of the game almost as much as when CAD was introduced back in the '80s. No overlap at all, but completely complementary.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThanks, Paul.
Operator
operatorWe have another question from [ Mark Trevil ] from -- just an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. [ I'm partly investor and member of turning ] there. From 2016 to '18, your long-term incentives was purely based on EPS growth. In 2019, you went to 50% revenue, 50% EPS. And I note in the annual report, there was a change just to 100% revenue, but the targets would remain the same going forward. I was just wondering whether you're planning to go back to EPS or you're keeping the mixture of revenue and EPS.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, [ Mark ]. The change to revenue in fiscal '20, I'm sure you can appreciate, was because we were completely focused on achieving that revenue goal that we had set in 2016. And typically, we find that our financial discipline means that our margin and revenue tend to go in harmony, and we weren't concerned that we would have any downward pressure on EBITDA or EPS with a focus on revenue. And of course, the intervention of COVID upset the apple cart, so we didn't pay out any incentive compensation as a consequence of that. We are looking at a mixture of -- or we have in place a mixture of hurdles for fiscal '21, which will get revealed after the publication of our accounts. Thanks for the question, Mark.
Operator
operatorWe have another question from Stuart Turner from Blue Ocean Equities.
Stuart Turner
analystSorry about that. I was wondering if we could just clarify the accounting treatment of tasking, which obviously was taken out as a continuing item in the first half accounts and how that sort of contributes to the guidance on revenue.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Stuart. I'm glad to have you with us this morning. As much as I'd like to dive into the intricacies of accounting, I think it's better that I hand this over to Martin.
Martin Ive
executiveThanks, Sam. So Stuart, when we talked about the guidance range post the divestment of tasking, what we -- or how we built that was that we would include the pre divestment revenue to tasking in the number in the $190 million to $195 million. I think the revenue for the first half was just under $10 million. And yes, there was approximately from $1 million worth of revenue pre divestment in the second half.
Stuart Turner
analystOkay. That's great. And so what does that mean then excluding tasking for the second half? So if you -- what would the math be? Just take the -- let's just take $190 million, we take out $10 million -- what -- $10.6 million...
Martin Ive
executiveSo take around $11 million for the full year, and it will be $1.2 million, $1.3 million, I think, for the second half.
Stuart Turner
analystYes. Okay. So the $190 million includes the first half contribution from tasking and the $1 million stub in the second half. And so that, excluding tasking in that guidance, would be approximately 179, and so 80 of that being, I think, the -- what was it, 89.6, less the 9.6 million. It was roughly 80 in the first half. So really 80 for the first half means that the second half, you're looking at 99, which is a great sort of increase on the 80 in the first half.
Martin Ive
executiveYes. So -- and I think our goal, as we kind of went into the second half, and I think as we talked through the flight path to 2025, in particular the post-COVID period or the transitionary period, was really to get momentum back into the business. And regardless of whether we hit 190 or 195 or 188, we wanted to just get momentum back into the business, and we feel that, that is what we've achieved in the second half.
Stuart Turner
analystThat's a considerable jump really between the first and the second half, of course, if you use that bottom end of the range. So when you talk about momentum, is it -- how do you sort of attribute it? We obviously can see that vaccination rates in the U.S. have come up, and there's been a great resumption in mobility in the early months of the calendar year in the U.S. And I'm just wondering how you sort of break that down. Or is it perhaps more to do with China or perhaps something else?
Martin Ive
executiveCertainly, we've seen -- as we talked in the -- through the call and in the announcement, record growth we're expecting for Octopart. And we've also seen a good result in China. So China last year, when we're looking on a period-to-period basis, effectively had a washout in Q3 because of the COVID last year. We've also got the benefit in the current year of the push for volume that we had last year in terms of our subscriptions and our subscription renewals. Stuart, when we go through August and we finished off Q4, we'll obviously go through region by region in much more detail.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you, Stuart.
Operator
operatorAnd we just have one follow-up question from Quinn Pierson from Crédit Suisse.
Quinn Pierson
analystApologies for the follow-up. I just wanted to clarify. So earlier when we were speaking about Autodesk and the interest they have in Altium and potential partnerships, it certainly came away -- to me that Fusion 360 is kind of really the best use case and the best kind of marriage of those assets. So Fusion 360 does have some PCB capabilities, presumably from their acquisition of EAGLE several years ago now. I guess could you maybe just help fill in the gaps on where Altium comes in? And does Altium could then completely replace and upgrade and improve that PCB -- existing PCB capability? Or is it more -- is it more about Nexar providing the extension from 360 deeper into the PCB value chain or something else that I'm confused about? Any elaboration there would be appreciated.
Aram Mirkazemi
executiveSam, I could answer that question. This is not -- this ecosystem and what we're talking about is not really about this PCB tool against another PCB tool. And the game is much bigger. You have Google Drive. You have Box then. You have OneDrive. It's a much bigger game than thinking is that PCB A, is it PCB B? If PCB B is the better PCB tool and people prefer to have it, then so be it. On the cloud, it is true that the best PCBs is not about that. It's about giving the choice to the customer and not have artificial barriers that would prevent them from switching. That goes both ways.
Samuel Weiss
executiveModerator, we've gone considerably over time. So we're going to have to end the Q&A session now. But we greatly appreciate the attendance and the -- all of the questions. And we're always available. Should investors have more questions, please contact us directly.
Operator
operatorThank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's conference call. So once again, thank you all for participating today, but you may now all disconnect.
Samuel Weiss
executiveThank you.
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