Altri, SGPS, S.A. ($ALTR)

Good morning. We welcome you to the Altri Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Rui Cesario, the Head of IR of the Altri Group. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning. Thank you for joining Altri's 2025 Results Conference Call. We'll review our financial performance, market conditions, operational highlights and outlook followed by Q&A at the end. To address these topics, we have with us the CEO of Altri, Mr. Jose Pina; and Mr. Miguel Silva, the group's CFO. I will now pass the floor to Mr. Jose Pina.

Good morning. Thank you, Rui, and thank you all for attending Altri's conference call. We're pleased to host this call with investors and analysts to share Altri's results and our views about the market environment and challenges. If you turn to Slide #2. We start with the main highlights of 2025 and some consideration. 2025 was a challenging year for the global pulp sector. Market conditions were marked by excess supply, alongside increased uncertainty following tariff announcements from the United States. On the demand side, the improved visibility on U.S. tariff conditions and strengthening Asian demand are already translating into a more positive pricing environment in early 2026. On the supply side, we expect the gradual rebalancing of the market with less efficient capacity, namely in the Softwood segment is rationalized. In 2025, EBITDA reached EUR 94.1 million, down 57% year-on-year with a margin of 13.4%, reflecting weaker pricing environment and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Despite these external pressures, we continue to execute on cost optimization. Cash cost declined for the second consecutive year, reinforcing our operational discipline and strengthening our resilience as market conditions improved. During 2025, we continued to advance our growth and diversification strategy, taking decisive steps beyond our core pulp business. We strengthened our portfolio through 2 targeted non-organic growth initiatives, the acquisition of the majority stake in AeoniQ, positioning the group in advanced sustainable textile fibers and the strengthening of our forestry platform in Northern Spain through Altri Forestal. In parallel, we remain fully focused on the execution of our industrial projects. The acetic acid and furfural project at China is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 while at Biotek, the gradual migration of BHKP production to dissolving pulp continues with full conversion planned by the end of 2026. These initiatives reinforce our strategic diversification, enhance long-term value creation and position the group for more resilient and sustainable growth. Moving to Slide #3. Global pulp demand closed 2025 on a healthier footing, although with clearly diverging trends across fiber types. While overall demand improved performance deferred markedly between hardwood and softwood markets. China and the broader Asian region were the primary drivers of growth, underpinning volumes and supporting market momentum . In contrast, Europe and North America experienced a moderation in demand following a relatively strong performance in 2024. In Slide #4, we want to highlight that a recovery in the final months of the year allowed the dissolving pulp market to close 2025 with positive momentum. Demand improved progressively as the initial negative impact of U.S. tariff implementation on the Asian textile value chain was increasingly absorbed. This normalization supported a more resilient demand environment and an increasingly constructive backdrop for dissolving pulp as we move into 2026. In Slide #5, inventories at European ports have remained broadly stable since the second half of 2024, staying close to historical averages of around 1.4 million to 1.5 million tonnes. This level further reduced in January 2026 to 1.29 million tonnes. In Slide #6, we talk about pulp prices, and during the full year of 2025, Europe's average BHKP prices declined by 12% in U.S. dollars and minus 15% in euros. In the fourth quarter 2025, prices were also down year-on-year, but showed a sequential recovery in the last quarter of the year. Prices rebounded quarter-on-quarter with a fixed index ending December at around $1,100 per ton. In Slide #7, dissolving pulp prices closely linked to the textile value chain were pressured through early 2025 due to geopolitical uncertainty. Since this summer, the market has stabilized and in early 2026 is showing the first signs of recovery as fundamentals improve and demand in key regions begins to normalize. On Slide #8, production and sales volumes in 2025 remains broadly in line with 2024 despite a softer demand environment in Europe. Some logistical constraints temporarily delayed dissolving pulp shipments, but we expect full normalization from the second quarter of 2026 onwards. Going to Slide #9. On a segment level, both end use and geographic mix remains broadly in line with 2024 with some increase in Turkey and Middle East. I'd now like to pass to Miguel Silva, Altri's CFO, who will comment on the main financial highlights.

Thanks, Jose. In Slide #10, throughout 2025, our performance was constrained by a challenging market environment. Lower pulp prices combined with a weaker U.S. dollar against the euro placed pressure on both revenues and profitability across the year. However, market fundamentals began to improve towards the end of the period with a gradual recovery during the fourth quarter of 2025. Going to Slide 11. Looking on a full year basis, revenues and EBITDA declined, reflecting the weaker pricing environment and as well as FX dynamics in 2025, especially when compared with the more favorable market conditions seen in 2024. On Slide 12, we can see that EBITDA margin remained under pressure in 2025 due to the already mentioned lower prices in weaker U.S. dollars. In the fourth quarter, margins began to recover as market conditions and FX stabilized and we have some positive impact of recurring items that usually occur in the fourth quarter. In Slide #13, despite being a challenging year, EBIT and net profit improved in the fourth quarter of '25, rebounding from the quarterly low recorded in the previous quarter, driven by the recovery in pricing, FX stabilization and ongoing cost efficiency measures. We can move to Slide 15, where we highlight that Altri continuous focus on cost optimization, delivered a second consecutive year of cash cost reduction in 2025. On the wood side, average wood costs were slightly lower year-on-year, supported by a more efficient sourcing mix. On energy, electricity and natural gas, with normalization of Celbi cogeneration turbine in late March 2025, improved electricity outputs and plant efficiency. As a result, the energy area, it was a slightly better contribution compared with 2024. And finally, on chemicals, prices continued their downward trend and overall chemical costs in 2025 were marginally below the previous year. This improvement reflects strict cost management across all major inputs helping to mitigate the impact of a softer market environment. In Slide 16, we can see that net debt decreased in the quarter, supported by stronger operational cash flows and the receipt of recurring cash inflow linked to the group's operating activity which typically occur in the final quarter of the year. Slide 17, we can see the increase in net debt in 2025, reflecting lower EBITDA, higher investment levels linked to our diversification projects, namely the dissolving pulp conversion at Biotek and acetic acid and furfural at Caima as well as the acquisitions of AeoniQ and Greenalia. I'll now pass it back to Jose Pina.

Thank you, Miguel. If you move to Slide #18, a challenging year for the pulp industry resulted in a modest 6% ROCE for 2025, below our historically double-digit average, which remains a solid 16%. Slide #19. In 2025, Altri continued to strengthen its leadership in sustainability and responsible operations, earning recognition from several environmental and rating institutions. Altri was included in CDP's 2025 A List, positioning the group amongst the top 4% of companies worldwide employment-related transparency and performance under the world's leading independent environmental reporting system. The group has successfully issued EUR 50 million in Green Bonds with a maturity of up to 8 years to finance Biotek's strategic conversion project from paper pulp to dissolving pulp. To mark the 30th anniversary of EMAS program, the Portuguese Environment Agency, APA, recognized companies with long-standing environmental excellence. Celbi received the Gold Certificate for maintaining EMAS certification for 20 years, while Caima was awarded Silver for its 15th-year commitment, both highlighting our continuous focus on environmental best practice. From Slide 20 to 22, we have some highlights on the growth and diversification projects we have underway. The first of these projects to be finalized is the acetic acid and furfural collection unit at Caima on our Bioproduct segment and should start operating during the third quarter of 2026. On Slides 23 and 24, we share some of our conclusions and perspectives. First, the global pulp market remained highly volatile through 2025. Year-over-year demand recovery was interrupted by U.S. tariff announcements, which affected global sentiment and slowed purchasing activity, particularly in Asia and China. Towards the end of 2025 and into early 2026, market conditions began to improve, weak demand recovery more visibly in the hardwood segment and dissolving pulp also showing first signs of rebound. Second, BHKP prices in China and Europe reached their early lows in second quarter of 2025. A more sustained recovery only emerged towards the end of 2025 and into early 2026, supported by improving Asian demand. Price increases announced in the first quarter of 2026 will begin to affect results from the second quarter 2026 onwards, reflecting the usual 2-month pricing lag. Third, severe storms in early 2026, most notably Storm Kristin, caused damage, production stoppages and significant logistical disruption across our industrial units. The closure of the Port of Figueira da Foz, our main logistics hub, for several weeks, as well as disruptions on rail transport further intensified the operational constraints. Although operations normalized by March, the impact on first quarter 2026 results will be material driven by higher logistic costs, lower production levels, increased energy consumption and reduced surplus energy generation. Fourth, on the geopolitical front, the immediate impact of the cost of conflict in the Persian Gulf region has been increasing energy costs, partially offset by our hedging strategy, especially on natural gas. Should the situation persists, inflationary pressures could indirectly raise costs across logistics, chemicals and wood. In 2026, the group remains firmly focused on cost optimization. Variable costs are expected to rise slightly, reflecting the impact of the early year storms while excluding any potential prolonged effects from the Iran geopolitical situation. Our diversification program continues to advance as planned. Biotek's full conversion to dissolving pulp remains on track for completion by year-end 2026. Qualification-related delays should begin to ease for the second quarter, improving visibility in its financial contribution. At Caima, the renewable acetic acid and furfural recovery project is expected to be completed in late first half of 2026, enabling sales of a new higher value bioproduct from the second half of the year. Number seven, regarding Project Gama in Northern Spain, the group continues to wait the integrated environmental license before taking a final investment decision. In 2025, the project achieved 2 important milestones: the receipt of a favorable Environmental Impact Statement, DIA, by the Xunta of Galicia and the awarding of the STEP label by the EU Climate Agency. Altri has also strengthened its presence in the region through targeted forestry acquisitions and is pursuing an alternative electrical connection solution to ensure the project maintains its classification as a Strategic Industrial Project. At Caima, a pre-industrial unit for AeoniQ will be installed to support industrial scale-up of these next-generation sustainable fiber. This unit will enable higher production volumes and accelerate customer qualification processes, strengthening our position in the rapidly expanding sustainable textile fiber segment. To conclude, 2025 was undeniably a challenging year for our sector. shaped by the uncertainty created by tariff announcements, geopolitics and the evolution of the U.S. dollar. As we enter 2026, we're facing some unexpected events, including the severe storms, I referenced before in Portugal and the geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. Even so, industry fundamentals appear more solid today, demand has strengthened over recent months and pricing trends remain on a positive trend. As we have highlighted, the first quarter will reflect the temporary impact of the storms, mainly on logistics, production and energy. However, we expect operations to normalize in the second quarter profitability to exceed the levels reported in the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite short-term volatility, our strategy remains unchanged and focused on operational excellence, cost discipline and the execution of our diversification project. We remain confident in Altri's ability to deliver sustainable value creation. Thank you for your attention, and we look forward to your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Manuel Lorente from Santander.

Yes. Probably my first question is regarding the extremely supportive cash cost trend in this fourth quarter, whether you can give us an indication of what has been the main reasons behind this positive performance. And more or less, whether you can give us an indication of what we should expect for this year?

Thank you, Manuel. So basically, I think with the continuation of a lot of our efforts, fourth quarter there were, I think, a few additional reasons. One was we did not have any campaign for dissolved pulp. As you know, dissolving pulp usually has a somewhat higher cash flows because of the specific consumption of fiber but nevertheless, it was very positive on all fronts. We have -- we run very efficient operations. Usually, you have a few items that sometimes impacts such as some of the remuneration tariffs for energy. But those are on a yearly basis, they ended basically evening out. So even though the impact may be reflected more in the fourth quarter, but I think it's an indication of what we have been doing and all of the work that the company continues to pursue in terms of optimization in its operations. I think if you look at 2026 in terms of our cash costs, considering the first quarter with the impact of the storms and some of the geopolitical uncertainties particularly around energy costs, it's likely that we'll see a slight increase for the full year but it will still be somewhat in the low single digits. So that would be our expectation. Thank you, Manuel.

The next question comes from Luis de Toledo Heras from ODDO.

The first one refers to the tariffs. I mean, I don't know if you could explain the final outcome. Obviously, the U.S. market is not directly an important market, but it might activate some other export markets and the news that I've -- look, I don't know if you have a complete exception or partial exception. If you could elaborate on that front, it would be great. I don't know if you want me to post the other 2 questions. In that case, I mean, the second one would be referring to the depreciation level. I think it's slightly lower than the last year. I don't know if there's any reason on that front. And my last question refers to the AeoniQ acquisition. I've seen that the goodwill increases in the second half by around EUR 20 million. You mentioned that CapEx this year would be more inclined towards the EUR 70 million range and specifically, I thought you were mentioning an initial investment on AeoniQ of EUR 10 million. I don't know if you could elaborate more details on the AeoniQ acquisition and its consolidation in the quarter.

Sorry, Luis, could you just repeat the first question, please?

Okay. It's regarding the U.S. tariffs. When you mentioned that the things have cleared, I don't know if you could elaborate there if there's been a total exemption of wood -- hardwood pulp to the U.S. I know it's not a significant market for you, but it might activate other markets, which have different treatment in tariffs and so on. I don't know if you could give a brief outlook on the tariff equation.

Yes. Thank you, Luis. Regarding your question on the U.S. tariffs and I think these have now normalized, but at least there is some greater clarity concerning some of the agreements that have been made. What still remains unclear is going to be the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding the tariffs and ultimately what the final level will be. So that, I think, we'll have to wait and see. But I would say the anxiety related to all of the volatility associated with U.S. tariffs at this point has been somewhat mitigated also by actions in different regions of the globe, which have been actively pursuing diversification of the market. So we don't see, at least in the short, medium-term a significant disruption unless obviously something changes, which you can never fully exclude. If I understood you correctly, there was a second question around depreciation level probably related to the U.S. dollar. Maybe Miguel will give you an update.

If I understood correctly your question. I think it was about lower depreciation that we have in 2025 and that is very easy to explain. So we have an important [indiscernible] and the depreciation in 2025, that's why there is a significant decrease in depreciation in 2025 compared with 2024.

Yes. And regarding your AeoniQ question, so the acquisition, we did not disclose at the time specific terms on the acquisition. The acquisition was a combination of the share purchase plus a capital increase. And that's what you see reflected particularly on the goodwill related to that transaction. Regarding the investment that we have for this year, we currently, our best estimates is in the range of EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million, excluding subsidies, and that includes the conclusion of the large project that we have underway plus as well this initial market pulp line that we have also on pulp.

The next question comes from Bruno Bessa from Caixa Bank.

Yes. And the first one, if you could provide a bit of color on the sentiment coming out of this week big event in Shanghai. What is your sentiment of the industry? And if you are seeing any kind of concern or demand slowdown caused by the conflict in Iran? Then the second question, you already provided some visibility on the CapEx for this year. Just trying to understand if you still expect net debt to go down this year despite the still relatively low pulp prices and relatively higher CapEx when compared to mid-cycle numbers. And the third [indiscernible] so that there was a relevant duration of the fair value of the biological assets this year. If you could please explain the...

Okay. Thank you, Bruno. So on the first -- your first question regarding Shanghai sentiment. I think overall, at least what we have been -- what we have experienced is actually I would classify as a positive sentiment. The market has seen some tightening. I think out of Shanghai, at least from some of the discussions that have taken place, the likelihood of further price increases, I would say, is high given the tightening of the current supply-demand imbalance. There's a number of scheduled turnarounds in the second quarter that will clearly impact it, but overall, I would say there is somewhat of a positive sentiment that came out of Shanghai and concerning demand flow from some impact in terms of Iran, I would say the key, let's call it, concern at this point is really related to logistics. It may -- the flow of logistics, obviously, is becoming longer. The return container flow is potentially reduced. So we should see not only an increase in terms of some of the logistic costs between Asia and Europe but also potentially some specific disruptions at given times, just out of prudence in terms of ensuring that there is some regular flow of transshipment. But I would say, at least at this point, that could potentially impact some of the exports from China, although they have been reduced. But on the whole, I would say that's the only uncertainty at least in terms of logistics flows that we see at this point, apart from an increase in energy costs, which also impacts, as you know, logistics. On the CapEx for this year, as I've mentioned, our estimate at this point is $50 million to $60 million rate, excluding subsidies. In terms of net debt, we're looking at being somewhat at the same level as we finish the year. And it really depends on the optimization of some of our CapEx investments. But I would say the current level is probably where we're going to be focusing on. Regarding the biological assets, maybe Miguel would like to comment. There was a change in biological asset valuation.

Yes. It happens. Sorry, because I [indiscernible] question, but there is the same work that we do every year in order for the valuation of biological assets and a reflection of that value that we do every year. So no major difference regarding the previous year.

The next question comes from Stefano Maina from JB Capital.

Thank you for explaining your results. The question I have relates to mainly the outlook for 2026. So we are seeing an improvement in demand and an optimistic sentiment from what you're saying. The question that I have is more related on what, in your opinion, is going to be driving a potential upside in prices. From my understanding, the majority of this upside is coming from the supply side, a constraint in supply. And I just wanted to know what's your view on that? And apart from that, if you think that considering that from my knowledge, the situation in Indonesia with the revocation of the permits has been kind of improving, what are your expectations on that side?

Thank you, Stefano. I will say in terms of the outlook for 2026, clearly, we see at least some improvement in sentiment. You don't have -- apart from actually some integrated capacity in China, you don't have really any significant capacity coming on to the market this year. There's been a delay as well related to some of the projects in Indonesia and into 2027, major capacity introduction, I think, will be somewhat muted as well. So effectively, when you look at not just the short-term but the medium-term, so the next 12, 24 months, primarily constraints in supply given that there continues to be a positive trend in terms of the development of demand will clearly tighten the supply-demand ratio. I think in Indonesia the cancellation of a number of forestry licenses as we refer has been a factor at least impacting some of the sentiment in the industry. If you look at where the fiber sourcing is going to come from, specifically for some of the new capacity in Indonesia and also in China given the levels of fiber supply has not changed dramatically, at least in the last 6 to 12 months, and we've seen already an increase in fiber prices in China, there aren't many additional sources of fiber in the region. So Vietnam being obviously the key markets for that. And all of those movements will likely constrain somewhat at least the availability of raw materials. And that, in turn, will, I think, reinforce a positive sentiment. So even though we're seeing a number of factors substantially impacting at least in the short-term, I would say, the maintenance stoppages that have been planned will clearly support that trend. But we have, I would say, a somewhat positive sentiment at this moment. And we see that in the order flow from customers not just on paper pulp but also on dissolving pulp, where we have seen also an upward strengthening of prices in near-term and we're also seeing an improvement in sentiment as well from a demand perspective, the big information. So overall, I would say those would be the key elements.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Antonio Seladas from AS Independent Research.

So I have 2 questions. First one is related with volumes in the fourth quarter were probably slightly below my expectations. So I don't know and taking into consideration that production was okay, maybe you can explain why volumes -- and taking into consideration that prices increase, maybe you can explain a little bit more why volumes were on big side? So first question. Second question is related with 2026. You already mentioned some -- already provided some color on it. Maybe you can also talk about volumes, taking into consideration that Biotek is now in the transition period. So should we be worried about volumes or not? And finally, on wood prices, wood prices have been coming down, your average figure. So at least taking into consideration the accounts that we do on our spreadsheet. Nevertheless, they are still higher than the levels before 2022. So my question is, should we expect wood prices to continue to adjust? Or do you think that current prices are okay?

Antonio, may I ask you if you could repeat your second question, please?

The second question was on the -- last one was on the -- second question was on volumes. So volumes for -- volumes sold for 2026, taking consideration that Biotek is under this transition period that could impact volumes. So if you could -- well, if it's fair to expect volumes in 2026 at least similar to 2025.

Okay. Thank you. Well, first of all, in terms of -- from a volume perspective, volumes are at a production level 2026 -- 2025 versus 2024 was in line with -- actually with a slight increase. And you could see that production, in particular on dissolving pulp -- so paper pulp was flat, dissolving pulp was an increase, which was a reflection of the campaigns we have, particularly for qualification products. In terms of sales, I think it was a slight decrease. So a lot of that, again, you have -- in particular, when you look at Biotek which is where you would have seen the biggest change, we have not -- we did not have any production of -- in dissolving Biotek in Q4. But primarily, we've been focusing on ensuring that we have a good level of inventory for all of the qualification processes taking place. So I will say through these months and this period of qualification, I would ask you not to overly focus on production levels when it comes to dissolving because they're going to be very deferring from quarter-on-quarter until we have the full qualification then by the end of this year. On recovering wood prices, we've seen a stability in terms of wood prices last year. There was actually some improvement, a lot of it came from the mix -- sourcing mix. We've reduced some of our imports outside of the region and then obviously, have a positive effect -- positive impact in our wood prices. So this year, one is so far from energy, which I've mentioned, we don't expect to see significant changes in terms of wood pricing on most sources, but there may be a slight increase given the current inflationary pressures, particularly associated with energy. And when you look at somewhat of an impact, which we're still assessing in terms of on the domestic market, domestic sourcing market, first quarter, there was clearly a reduction in terms of supply in the central region of the country. There are additional costs associated with the harvesting and the processing of wood because we have to get into certain forestry areas, which are difficult to access, which have roads which are blocked. But a lot of that work is ongoing. That should normalize anyway going forward beyond the first quarter. But clearly, that those will potentially pressure upwards somewhat wood prices. But for the whole year, and given that we don't expect any significant increase in terms of exports from beyond Iberia, I would say wood prices will remain relatively contained with, I guess, the potential impact of energy as I said, which could possibly put some inflationary pressures on fiber.

There are no further questions from the conference call. We'll start now with the written questions. The first question comes from [ Tote Florio. ] And the question is, despite these results, does Altri continue to distribute dividends. And the next question is, will there be dividends.

Thank you for the question. Regarding dividends, as you, I'm sure, are aware, we do not have a dividend policy. But nevertheless, we have historically maintained a relatively stable and healthy shareholder remuneration. If you look over the last 5 years, in the range of 5% to 6% yield. I would say that decision will be made in the coming couple of months, but we continue to be and will remain very focused on shareholder remuneration. So although I can't comment specifically on dividends until we have proposals to our AG in May. But as I said, that's something that we remain very focused on.

So I'm reading the last question from the written area of questions. And it's regarding the hedging energy policy in place for 2026 in Altri. So I'll pass it to Mr. Miguel Silva, who will answer the question.

Yes. I think the question is mostly around gas. As we do every year, yes, we usually do some hedging for the gas prices and this year is not different from another. So we have at a fixed price, more or less 60% of our consumption. So we just have 40% of our consumption roughly in the open market. So we have a big price of slightly higher than EUR 30 per megawatt hour for around 60% of our consumption.

I'll pass to the operator.

There are no further questions. So we'll hand over the session to Mr. Jose Soares de Pina, Altri's CEO. Thank you.

Well, thank you very much for attending our results conference call, and we remain focused for the coming quarters, ensuring that we continue to deliver and looking forward to our next call in May. Thank you very much.