Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

So it is my privilege once again to welcome Altria back to CAGNY. Joining us today are our Chief Executive Officer, Billy Gifford; and Chief Financial Officer, Sal Mancuso. Please join me in thanking them for their continued support of the conference, including their generous sponsorship of dinner later this evening. Against the backdrop of industry that remains subject to significant shifts in consumer demand and regulatory dynamics, Altria remains committed to its continued pursuit of its vision to responsibly lead the transition of the adult smokers to a smoke-free future. To enable this, the company has continued to invest in reshaped -- its reshaped portfolio of next-generation products over the past few years, where traction is strong and building for on. Moreover, Altria continues to engage with stakeholders to advocate for consistent enforcement against illicit vapor products where U.S. prevalence, unfortunately, remains quite high. Speaking to the stability of its core business, Altria has been able to balance this investment in the future along and long-term profitable growth with consistent results near term, exemplified by high-quality cash generation and healthy shareholder returns via dividends and share repurchase. And so Billy, with that, I will turn it over to you to [ bring it to life for us ].

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're excited to be back at CAGNY to discuss the progress we're making toward our vision of moving beyond smoking. I'm joined today by Sal Mancuso, our Chief Financial Officer. And following that presentation, Heather Newman, our Chief Strategy and Growth Officer; and Bob McCarter, our General Counsel, who also leads regulatory affairs will join us for the breakout session next door. We're also looking forward to hosting dinner tonight, where you have the chance to meet other members of our management team. Before we begin, we ask that you carefully review the safe harbor statement in today's presentation, and the forward-looking and cautionary statements section in today's press release. These documents are available on altria.com, along with the reconciliations and further explanations of the non-GAAP financial measures we will discuss today. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board of Directors. And all references in today's remarks to nicotine consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult nicotine consumers 21 years of age or older. We believe our actions over time have positioned Altria to win in U.S. nicotine over the long term. With their leading traditional tobacco brands, Marlboro, Black & Mild and Copenhagen, we've developed best-in-class marketing, sales and distribution capabilities, fostered strong relationships with trade partners, built a loyal consumer base and gained a deep understanding of nicotine consumers. We believe these core enablers of success and our financial flexibility position us to make the necessary investments to achieve leadership and reduce harm while delivering significant cash returns to shareholders. I'll focus my remarks this morning on the evolution of the U.S. nicotine space and our efforts to capture the growing harm reduction opportunity. I'll then turn it over to Sal to discuss our highly profitable smokeable business, our ambition to expand beyond U.S. nicotine and our continuing commitment to create substantial value for our shareholders. The potential for tobacco harm reduction in the U.S. is significant. And we believe that the opportunity remains in its early stages. Of the nearly 55 million nicotine consumers in the U.S., we estimate that only 1/3 exclusively use smoke-free formats today. However, consumers are transitioning to smoke-free alternatives at a faster pace than ever before. And the estimated number of adult consumers in the e-vapor and oral tobacco categories has grown to approximately $28 million, nearly as large as the smoker population. Nicotine consumer preferences are rapidly changing. Today's nicotine consumers want smoke-free products that offer the potential to reduce harm and social friction, and are available in a variety of flavors. In fact, with more products in the market coming closer to meeting those needs, industry equivalized nicotine volumes increased for the second consecutive year in 2024 and grew by a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 2% over the past 5 years. Smoke-free volume growth is now more than offsetting cigarette industry volume declines, demonstrating that consumers are seeking alternatives to cigarettes rather than leaving the nicotine space entirely. The growing adoption of smoke-free products is encouraging and directly aligned with our vision and the growth aspirations of our smoke-free businesses. A research supports that no single product format or flavor will satisfy all nicotine consumers. To advance harm reduction, our strategy is to deliver a portfolio of products across today's most promising innovative smoke-free platforms, oral nicotine pouches, heated tobacco and e-vapor. In the rapidly growing nicotine pouch category, we have on! and on! PLUS for which we submitted PMTAs last year. In heated tobacco, we're working toward PMTA and MRTPA submissions for Ploom with JT Group. And we're testing SWIC, a heated tobacco capsule product through e-commerce in Great Britain. And in e-vapor, we have NJOY ACE and DAILY, the only e-vapor products with menthol marketing authorizations from the FDA. Let's now turn to how we're bringing our smoke-free portfolio to consumers. We'll start with oral tobacco, where our strategy is to maximize profitability over time in MST through the strength of Copenhagen and responsibly grow on while investing in a pipeline of innovative oral nicotine products. The oral tobacco category continues to grow, led by nicotine pouches. We estimate that industry volume grew by 8.5% last year and included nearly 8 million consumers. In the last 3 years, nicotine pouch consumers have more than tripled and now comprise 3.5 million of those 8 million consumers. Our old tobacco products segment continues to deliver strong financial performance driven by USSTC. Approximately 1 out of every 2 MST products sold in the U.S. is a USSTC brand. Copenhagen leads our MST portfolio and is known for its craftsmanship and unwavering commitment to product quality, made from 100% American-grown tobacco. In the highly profitable premium segment, USSTC share is nearly 60 percentage points and has continuously grown over the past 5 years, illustrating the resiliency of its MST brands as other premium brands in the category feed greater share to discount. The strength of our MST business has enabled us to invest behind on! while growing profitability. Over the past 5 years, our oral tobacco products segment has grown adjusted OCI by over $200 million, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 2.4%. Over the same time, adjusted OCI margins remained strong and demonstrated improvement after a period of investment to accelerate on!'s progress in the marketplace. With on!, Helix is focused on appropriately balancing investments to grow awareness and trial with long-term retention and profitability. Last year, Helix had tremendous success, growing on! volume and share while optimizing promotional resources. In the fourth quarter of 2024, on!'s volume increased by more than 40% versus the prior year and share expanded by 2 percentage points. Helix achieved these impressive results while increasing on!'s retail price by nearly $0.30 per can in 2024. Notably, Helix achieved profitability for the first time in the fourth quarter ahead of its 2025 goal. We are encouraged by on!'s ability to retain loyal purchasers and expand its consumer base at a higher retail price. Consumer loyalty frontline continues to build. At the end of last year, 800,000 consumers regularly purchased on!, an increase of more than 40% versus the prior year. The deep understanding of consumers informs our strategies for on!. On! consumers skew younger, live in more urban areas and have higher income levels relative to smokers. A research shows that consumers believe nicotine pouches brands lack differentiation. To further distinguish the on! brand, Helix introduced a fresh new look for on! packaging last year, along with its new equity campaign, IT'S ON!. The campaign resonates with current and competitive consumers, who easily pick up on the energy, excitement and nicotine satisfaction that on! provides. The brand paired its new campaign with advertisements across digital channels, including TV screens and bars and age-verified delivery of [indiscernible] videos. Let's take a look at how this comes to life. [Presentation]

Following the IT'S ON! campaign launch, consumer impressions more than doubled, growing to 700 million in 2024. On! also sourced more consumers from competitive brands versus prior years, representing an exciting avenue for future growth. The Helix team looks forward to bringing the campaign to more consumers and continuing to responsibly grow on! share of the category. Helix is investing in support of on! at retail. Last year, Helix launched a new trade program to strengthen on!'s positioning, including enhanced merchandising, distribution and assortment. The trade program secured the premium fixture position for nearly 80% of on!'s volume, creating broader visibility for the brand. As we look to the category's future, we're excited about the prospects and potential for on! PLUS, an innovative pouch product may use in our proprietary soft-feel material. Last year, Helix submitted PMTAs to the FDA for on! PLUS in 3 varieties, tobacco, mint and wintergreen, each of these in 3 different nicotine strengths. Our early research indicates that nicotine pouch consumers and dippers view the product's soft pouch and larger size as differentiated compared to products on the market today. And we expect the brand building efforts behind on! in the U.S. will benefit the entire on! portfolio in the future. Our smokeless tobacco business has a strong American heritage, stretching back more than 200 years. We intend to continue our leadership with a compelling portfolio of MST and innovative old tobacco products, which remain important to achieving our smoke-free ambitions. Let's now turn to heated tobacco. While we recognize the important role heated tobacco products can play in harm reduction, the category remains essentially nonexistent in the U.S. Based on our assessment, of U.S. consumers, the alternatives currently available to them and our experience with IQOS. We continue to believe that heated tobacco will make up approximately 5% of the U.S. nicotine space over the long term. Some smokers seeking inhalable alternatives, want products that reduce the social friction associated with cigarettes, yet providing a satisfying real tobacco taste. We've taken a two-pronged approach to competing in heated tobacco, building our portfolio through partnership and internal development. Our joint venture with JT Group, Horizon is focused on the familiar heated tobacco stick format that will be paired with the Marlboro brand. During 2024, we made great progress toward a PMTA and accelerated work on MRTPA for Ploom. We now expect to make a combined submission to the FDA in the middle of this year. We believe the science and research supporting teams applications are compelling, evident from a large consumer use study among adult smokers, not planning to quit shows that nearly 75% of those who use Ploom had meaningful reductions in cigarette consumption, with nearly 1/3 completely switching from cigarettes. We also observed that menthol flavored sticks had higher switch rates relative to tobacco flavored sticks. And evidence from our clinical study shows that consumers who switch from combustible cigarettes to Ploom significantly reduce their exposure to harmful chemicals. In short, given the low risk of underage use and the strong benefits of switching for adults, we believe Ploom presents a compelling case for authorization by the FDA, and we remain optimistic about its potential in the U.S. Our consumer research indicates heated tobacco capsule products could offer another transition opportunity for smokers. This is where SWIC fits in. In December, we commenced a small-scale test launch of SWIC through e-commerce in Great Britain. We plan to use consumer insights from the test to further inform our strategies for heated tobacco. Let's now turn to e-vapor, the largest and most successful smoke-free category for transitioning smokers away from cigarettes in the U.S. Our data show consumers transition from cigarettes to e-vapor at over 3x the rate of transition to other smoke-free categories. This is an encouraging sign and consistent with our belief that smoke -- most smokers are looking for satisfying inhalable alternatives to cigarettes. NJOY performed well during our first full year of ownership, growing consumables volume and share for the full year. Njoy's progress was driven by several actions, which I'll briefly highlight. Our team's diversified NJOY's supply chain outside of China, expanded distribution of ACE to over 100,000 stores. Introduced NJOY's first trade program, securing premium positioning at retail in more than 80% of contracted stores, expanded trial-generating activities, which helped grow share by nearly 3 percentage points to 6.4% in the fourth quarter and introducing new brand equity campaign with impactful consumer messaging. While we are encouraged by NJOY's progress, we acknowledge the challenges it faces from patent litigation and the growing illicit marketplace. As we've shared previously, NJOY faces litigation brought by JUUL before the U.S. International Trade Commission. In January, the ITC agreed with JUUL claims that NJOY infringed upon 4 of JUUL's patents. As a remedy, the ITC issued an exclusion order and cease and desist orders barring the importation and sale of ACE in the U.S. The ITC's decision is under a 60-day review period by the Trump administration, which could either uphold or reject the ITC's decision. An importation ban on ACE would severely limit FDA-authorized choices for consumers, and undermine public health, and we are pursuing every pathway to minimize the disruption from the exclusion order. At the same time, the e-vapor marketplace has changed significantly since we acquired NJOY in 2023. Our experience competing with NJOY showed us that today's vapors are seeking products that are flavored, come in a convenient form and offer high value for a reasonable price. And in the absence of FDA authorization of flavored product choices, consumers have turned to the illicit flavored disposable market. We estimate that the e-vapor category grew by approximately 30% in 2024, driven entirely by illicit products that now represent more than 60% of the category. As we said repeatedly, illicit product growth is concerning. It's the primary source of underage e-vapor use and with no controls over how the products are marketed or sold, it's attracting unintended audiences to the nicotine category. In fact, nearly 40% of new entrants to the category in 2024 were not prior smokers. At the same time, the category's growth is proof that a smoke-free future is possible. Both consumers and society expect a marketplace consisting of an array of FDA-authorized products led by responsible players throughout the value chain. We need a regulatory system that fosters innovation, not one which stifles and slows innovation to the advantage of the illicit market. We believe that long term, it's important to compete in e-vapor with flavored products that meet quickly evolving consumer preferences. And we're working on a pipeline of products to drive to that future. NJOY's marketplace performance today, this demonstrates our ability to use our strengths to build a brand and responsibly grow in the e-vapor category. And we expect these capabilities to benefit our future efforts in e-vapor. Until meaningful progress is made to address the illicit market and increase product authorizations, we will take a disciplined approach to earn investments in e-vapor. In our view, achieving our vision and the full promise of harm reduction requires 4 critical elements: First, underage tobacco use must continue to decline or remain low; second, consumers require accurate information about the role of nicotine to make informed decisions; third, the entire industry needs to operate within a fully enforced, science-based regulatory environment; and fourth, a variety of satisfying FDA-authorized products must be available for adult consumers. Let's briefly look at where we stand against each of these. First, the most recent National Youth Tobacco Survey reported all-time low youth tobacco use rates. The youth e-vapor use rate of 5.9% represents a dramatic drop from its peak in 2019. Thus, it's possible to keep nicotine products from becoming an on-ramp for youth while still offering a variety of alternative products for adult consumers. Second, consumers remain misinformed about nicotine. Research indicates that a majority of smokers incorrectly believe nicotine is the chemical that causes most of the cancer caused by smoking cigarettes. By providing truthful information, the FDA can help consumers make informed decisions and realize the positive health impact of switching to smoke-free products. Third, more than 13 million vapors use illicit products. These products, mostly imported from China are produced with no FDA oversight of ingredients, how the products are made or how they are marketed and sold. We tested leading illicit e-vapor brands and found that many misrepresented the type and concentration of nicotine used. And alarmingly, some are labeled as 0 nicotine when they contain more than trace amounts. These findings, which we shared with the FDA underscore a failure in consumer production and the risk to adults and youth of manufacturers circumventing regulations. Finally, in addition to an inadequate enforcement, -- the lack of FDA-authorized smoke-free products contributes to the illicit e-vapor issue. Consumers look to the FDA to deliver on harm reduction by giving them more authorized choices. However, we estimate that only 2% of e-vapor volume is FDA-authorized, woefully insufficient to meet consumer demand. It has become clear that 2 markets exist in the U.S, 1 for those operating within the regulatory system and 1 for those flagrantly violating and evading rules. In the simplest terms, the regulatory system is broken, and the nicotine marketplace is not operating as Congress intended. There is some encouraging news on the enforcement front. Federal efforts are gaining momentum backed by widespread bipartisan support. Last year, the Justice Department and the FDA announced a federal multi-agency task force to curb the distribution and sale of illicit e-vapor products. Its creation has led to increased import refusals and product seizures. And in January, the FDA announced an importation policy establishing a green list that e-vapor products must be on to lawfully enter the country, something for which we've long advocated. State AGs are also becoming more active. Last month, 10 state AGs announced various actions, including civil lawsuits, targeted investigations and warning letters against illicit e-vapor manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. For more than 2 decades, Altria has advocated for a regulatory system that advances harm reduction. We have earned our reputation as the industry leader, and policymakers recognize us as a credible partner with clear policy positions and actionable solutions that will benefit consumers, large and small retailers and society. There is a pathway to restoring order in the market. The FDA must adjust its approach to PMTAs, prioritizing innovation and establishing a legal market of smoke-free alternatives. And regulators need to use all available tools to hold rule breakers accountable and create a level playing field. Through our engagements with many stakeholders, we find widespread agreement on the problem and potential solutions. This coupled with a new administration, offers us renewed hope for progress. Once the benefits of appropriate regulation are realized, we believe Altria has the experience and capabilities to make significant progress toward our vision and lead the U.S. nicotine market over the long term. Sal will now discuss our highly profitable smokable products segment, international and non-nicotine progress and our continuing commitment to shareholder returns.

Thanks, Billy. Let's turn to our smokeable products segment, which includes our cigarette and cigar businesses. We manage our combustible business for the long term, which means that PM USA seeks to maximize profitability while maintaining Marlboro's strength over time. Over the past 5 years, the smokeable products segment has grown adjusted OCI by more than $1.7 billion representing a compounded annual growth rate of 3.6%. Over the same time, adjusted OCI margins have expanded by 7.1 percentage points to 61.6%. Over time, PM USA has made investments in Marlboro to maintain the brand's leadership in the cigarette category. As a result, in 2024, Marlboro remained the undisputed retail share leader and was larger than the next 10 brands combined. Over the past 5 years, Marlboro's share has remained stable with an average annual retail share decline of about 1/4 of a share point. Over the same period, Marlboro dollar share grew by more than 2 percentage points. And over the past 5 years, Marlboro outperformed other premium brands and grew its share of the highly profitable premium segment to 59.3%. PM USA achieved this performance with the help of our revenue growth management tools or RGM, which enhance the efficiency of its pricing and promotional strategies. Years ago, list price decisions were made at a national level. Over time, PM USA evolved its capabilities to support Marlboro at both a state and store level. With this broader set of tools, we can reach consumers who are under the greatest economic pressure and are more price sensitive compared to the most brand-loyal smokers. PM USA looks to continue building capabilities to broadly deploy consumer-level offers, and we're making good progress. Today, PM USA offers personalized value in retail accounts, representing approximately 40% of its volume. We are often asked about the national price gap between total Marlboro and the lowest price brand in the store. In the fourth quarter, the Marlboro price gap was close to 50%. However, this gap doesn't fully reflect PM USA's value delivery strategies. PM USA manages the Marlboro franchise holistically, positioning different at Marlboro SKUs to compete at various price points while still expanding smokeable adjusted OCI margins and growing Marlboro's share of the premium segment. In recent years, PM USA has positioned Marlboro Black at a lower price to provide loyal consumers under economic pressure a place to land in the Marlboro family. On a national level, Marlboro Black's price gap to the leading competitive discount product is only 20%. In addition, PM USA's RGM capabilities allow it to allocate additional resources based on consumer and competitive dynamics. For example, the State of Missouri is a very price-sensitive geography with a sizable discount segment. PM USA deployed targeted promotions to consumers under economic pressure achieving a Marlboro Black price gap that differs by store and in some cases, was as low as 5%. As you can see, the size of Marlboro -- with the size of Marlboro, we are able to manage price gaps at a granular level, grow adjusted OCI margins and outperform competitive premium brands. Based on its success, we expect our smokeable products segment will continue to be a significant contributor to our earnings, while providing funding for investments in our vision and long-term growth aspirations. Smokeable segment adjusted margins remained strong, supported by effective cost management throughout our traditional businesses. For example, over time, we have successfully repurposed several areas within our manufacturing footprint to support our innovative products. We now produce 90% of on!'s volume and expect to produce Marlboro heated tobacco sticks upon FDA authorization for Ploom. By repurposing existing manufacturing space, we can expand our businesses while managing our overhead and spreading fixed costs. Our capital investments have also evolved to support our smoke-free products. Over the last 5 years, the proportion of our capital investments supporting innovative products, has grown by nearly 45 percentage points and now represents over half of our total CapEx, and we expect that ratio to continue to grow. Billy discussed the tobacco harm reduction opportunity directly in front of us. Looking longer term, we also believe we can improve top line growth through opportunities outside the U.S. nicotine space. This includes international innovative smoke-free and U.S. non-nicotine. In 2024, we focused our efforts -- international efforts on the fast-growing nicotine pouch category with on! and on! PLUS. Early results continue to show that on! PLUS is a growing competitive player in Sweden and the United Kingdom. In both markets, on! PLUS has been incremental to the total on! portfolio, sourcing mainly from competitive brands with minimal cannibalization. In Sweden, flavor line extensions for on! PLUS drove consistent share momentum throughout the year. And in the U.K., following the launch of on! PLUS, the on! portfolio is the #2 nicotine pouch brand on the hype e-commerce platform. Supported by this encouraging progress, we doubled distribution throughout 2024. Today, the on! portfolio is available in thousands of key retail accounts in the U.K. and Sweden. In addition, we are launching 2 new flavors, Rasberry Lemon and Watermelon Mint in both markets to meet evolving consumer preferences. While on! and on! PLUS are gaining momentum, a portion of international consumers are interested in slim wet pouches, pouch products beyond what on! PLUS offers today. This year, we are excited to add FUMI to our international nicotine pouch portfolio, FUMI's 9 unique flavors deliver an elevated experience that maximize taste, aroma and nicotine delivery. FUMI appeals to the 80% of consumers interested in slim wet pouch products, and adding FUMI to our portfolio will enable us to meet the needs of more consumers. We plan to expand our entire nicotine pouch portfolio to additional countries as we progress through 2025. We are encouraged by the early progress of our nicotine pouch portfolio internationally, and we are setting the foundation necessary to achieve our 2028 international goal. Non-nicotine presents another opportunity to drive incremental revenue growth. We are taking a disciplined approach to our non-nicotine growth strategy, focusing on testing and learning in the U.S. market. Our research with over 10,000 consumers tells us that consumers are seeking product solutions that provide energy, focus, stress relief and relaxation. Collectively, we estimate these categories represent a $100 billion total addressable market in the U.S. We're looking to apply our transferable capabilities in distribution, trade relationships, high-speed manufacturing, unique product formats and science to non-nicotine products across these opportunity areas. In 2024, we executed several retail tests with convenience channel partners across various products, formats and merchandising concepts. Early insights indicate there is potential to disrupt the energy drink category in convenience stores, which we estimate to be a $14 billion opportunity. We learned that more than 50% of consumers are interested in energy shots that contain only all-natural ingredients. And 60% of energy shot consumers believe their product can be improved. Through our retail tests, we identified Proper Wild as a differentiated energy shot product. Proper wild uses simple ingredients that support increased concentration and productivity. Last year, we made a small investment in the company, and AGDC is providing sales and distribution services to Proper Wild in a small number of retail stores. Our investment will also provide valuable data and insights to further our understanding of the category. This year, we plan to expand distribution, putting us on a path toward our goal to commercialize and broadly distribute at least 5 non-nicotine products by 2028. While we invest in our future, we stand on the strong foundation of our traditional tobacco businesses that have enabled us to deliver cash returns for many decades. Over the last 5 years, we have returned more than $40 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and have grown our adjusted diluted earnings per share by 4% on a compounded annual basis. We remain committed to our 2028 corporate financial goals, which cover adjusted diluted EPS growth, dividend per share growth, leverage, total adjusted OCI margin and our leadership position in the U.S. tobacco space. Annually, our businesses typically produce more than $1 billion of cash in excess of dividend payments. As we consider this strong excess cash generation, we expect to continue balancing share repurchases with investments in our vision and debt repayment. At year-end 2024, we completed our previous $3.4 billion share repurchase program. And last month, our Board authorized a new $1 billion program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we have manageable debt maturity towers. In fact, none of our annual maturities exceed $2 billion through 2038. And at the end of last year, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1x. Finally, we reaffirm our 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $5.22 to $5.37. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 2% to 5% from the $5.12 base in 2024. I will now turn it back to Billy for closing remarks.

Thanks, Sal. As the leader in the U.S. nicotine industry, we believe we are well positioned to lead the tobacco harm reduction opportunity. We have a demonstrated commitment to responsibility, an extensive understanding of U.S. nicotine consumers and a compelling portfolio with products in each of today's smoke-free categories. We also have significant cash flows and a flexible balance sheet that support our investments and cash returns to shareholders. Our investment proposition includes consistent cash returns, limited foreign exchange and tariff exposure and an attractive valuation. We have the potential to unlock value through continued progress toward our vision. With these strengths and the hard work of our talented employees, we remain confident we can achieve our vision. Thank you for your time and your interest in Altria. We'll now take your questions.

Just [indiscernible] Bonnie.