AmRest Holdings SE (EAT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. My name is Lukasz Wachelko, I'm representing Wood & Company. Again, I have a pleasure to moderate this call with AmRest Holdings to discuss another quarter of their results. The company will be represented by CFO, Eduardo Zamarripa; and Chief of IR, Santiago Aguilera. Guys, not to take too much of your time, the mic is yours.

Thank you, Lukasz. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. I hope that you and your families are doing well. Today, we will present the 3Q '22 results for AmRest. As usual, let's start with an update regarding our presence and brands, Slide #2. As you know very well, AmRest is Europe's leading restaurant operator with a portfolio of 2,380 restaurants in 23 countries across Europe, Middle East and China. We serve every month to more than 30 million guests through our combinations of franchise and proprietary brands. In Slide 3, let me remark the most relevant events for the third quarter of 2022. First, we achieved a new record in revenues that reached EUR 658 million. This is an increase of 23% versus 2021. This level of revenues have been generated, thanks to a significant growth in traffic. The same-store transaction level year-to-date is at 119. Second, AmRest generated EUR 114 million of EBITDA in the quarter. In nominal terms, this is the highest figure ever. The EBITDA margin stood slightly above 17%. Third, the profit attributable to shareholders generated was EUR 34 million, offsetting the effect of the impairment of the Russia business realized last quarter. Finally, we recorded further progress in the [ deleverage ] of the group. The leverage ratio was 1.9 at the end of the quarter compared to 2.0 in the previous quarter. In Slide 4, you can find quarterly sales and EBITDA evolution for the last year. The strong positive momentum in sales continues and AmRest is back to growth path after the COVID. On the right-hand side, you can find EBITDA and EBITDA margin evolution. Note that despite recording the highest EBITDA level in absolute terms, EBITDA margin is declining. We will analyze the situation in more detail in the next slide. On Slide 5, we are providing a breakdown of the evolution of our main income and expenditures lines over the past years. Cost pressures in energy products in addition to the rise in the prices of many raw materials has led to a rise in inflation levels unseen in several decades, that is affecting AmRest's profitability and the cost of allocation distribution. Our approach to offset this effect is on accelerating efficiency and digitalization process as well as to responsibly increase prices. However, as we can see, the price increases made so far have not been sufficient to absorb the full impact of our raw materials cost increases. So we have a rise in the percentage of cost of our sales that currently stands at 28%. In addition, occupancy and other operating expenses that includes rents, energies, utility costs, delivery fees is another of the areas where we see most of the pressure, especially the cost of electricity was more. We can see how this line is eroding profitability despite the big progress accomplished in terms of efficiency and energy savings. Currently, these concepts have sold more than 18% of the revenues generated. On the other side, we have been able to progress considerably well in terms of the cost of labor. That is 1.6 percentage points lower than in 2021. The benefit of the sales leverage and the progress in digitalization have resulted in significant efficiency gains. Also, in terms of G&A, we have carried out a major optimization exercise over the last few years, which has significantly resolved the impact of this item. The combined effect of all the above is they practically offset each other. The actions we are developing are proving to be effective. However, there has been significant one-off contribution over the last few years that have virtually despaired this year, affecting the profitability comparison. In the case of 2021, we received almost EUR 40 million for the government support measures, [ tariff ] from COVID, which were accounting on a cash flow basis, regardless of the period in which they were generated. In Slide 6, we provide an overview of the operating cash flow generated by the group over the last years and the level of investments made. As it can be seen and is relied on increasing leverage the finance of its investments prior to 2021. This trend was broken in the last 2 years when a significant part of the resources generated has been dedicated to deleverage the company without giving up but is slowing down the number of openings. The result has been a needed and healthy strengthening of the balance sheet. Looking forward, the group's deleveraging efforts has already been completed, of course, subject to the changing market conditions. So the growing cash generation would support increasing CapEx that would result in new openings, renovations of existing restaurants and accelerations in the digitalization journey. In Slide 7, we have plotted AmRest's total quarterly sales and the dine-in sales evolution in the previous quarter. As we discussed, AmRest remains well positioned with its attractive value for money offer and well-balanced portfolio across brands and countries that is translating into significant sales growth. From the perspective of distribution channels, the dine-in channel accounted for 45% of the sales in the quarter. As in previous months, the dine-in channel again showed the strongest growth following the progressive elimination of COVID restrictions in most of the countries where AmRest operates. With the major exception of China is still affected by zero-COVID policies. In terms of segments, the adaptability shown by quick service restaurants has led to advances in items of market share and in 3Q 2022 this segment accounted for 70% of the group sales. In this category, customers find an attractive alternative to recover the frequency of restaurant consumption they had before the health crisis, while at the same time, they can efficiently control the increase in total ticket by combining promotion and shorter orders. In Slide 8, you can find the evolution of the 12 months trailing average revenue per store that continued to progress and now stands at EUR 970,000, approaching fast to the EUR 1 million barrier. As we have shared in the past, we consider these KPIs as relevant indicators for monitoring the quality sales evolution. The positive evolution of revenue per restaurant provides sales leverage key for maintaining margins in an inflationary environment. With this, Santi will cover the main financial highlights of the quarter. Santi, the mic is yours.

Many thanks, Eduardo, and good afternoon to you all. As Eduardo has shown, despite expectations of a slowdown in consumption, AmRest commercial dynamics continued to show very strong trends in most of the countries where we operate. Additionally, in this quarter, we recovered the positive contribution from our business in China. After a second quarter with a very weak activity due to the COVID restrictions that were implemented in the country. In Slide 10, you can find the main financial highlights for this quarter. Group revenue increased by more than 23% and reached EUR 658 million, with same-store sales level of 117% versus last year. As usual, we also provide the most up-to-date information that you can find at the bottom of the slide. On November, the same-store sales index stood at 121%. So we can infer that the strong commercial momentum of AmRest continues. The EBITDA generated in the quarter reached EUR 114 million, with an increase of 6% versus the same period of last year. Finally, CapEx level accelerates to almost EUR 34 million. In the Slide 11, show the main financial highlights year-to-date. Sales reached almost EUR 1.8 billion, with a growth of 28% versus the same period of last year and with a same-store sales level of 122. The accumulated EBITDA in the period was over EUR 190 million (sic) [ EUR 290 million ] that has allowed to accumulate cash that reached EUR 261 million and to fund EUR 77 million of CapEx. With respect to the restaurant portfolio 30 -- 46 new stores were opened during the period, 32 of equity and 14 franchisees. In Slide 10 (sic) [ Slide 12 ], you can find our quarterly revenue trends. AmRest's strong sales momentum continues and the value proposition of the group is resulting in positive traffic evolution despite price increases. Quarterly sales increased by 23% versus last year. Half of this increase is explained by a higher number of transactions with the increase in the average customer ticket responsible for the other half. In the Slide 13, you can find the EBITDA evolution. In terms of profitability, the group generated an EBITDA of EUR 140 million, which was 6% higher than in the same period of 2021. However, cost pressure in energy products, in addition to the rise in the prices of many raw materials, has led to a rise in inflation levels and seen in several decades that is affecting AmRest's profitability. The EBITDA margin stood at 17.3%. Although it is the highest quarterly figure in the current financial year, this level is 2.8 percentage points lower than we achieved during the same quarter of 2021. AmRest is actively working on measures to restore the group's profitability levels. In Slide 14, you can find the cash flow generation per quarter. The cash flow generated from operating activities was EUR 95 million, exceeding the investment and financing needs. Therefore, increasing the liquidity buffer of the group in more than EUR 21 million. In this regard, in the Slide 15, you can find the changes in the restaurant approach, we opened 17 new restaurants during the quarter, bringing the number of openings for this year to 46. On the other hand, the portfolio optimization has led us to close 19 restaurants. Following the seasonality shown in previous quarter, the last quarter is expected to concentrate most of the planned openings and necessary investments. In this sense, we expect the number of new openings to exit the commodity figure of the previous 3 quarters. With all this, AmRest operates through 2,380 restaurants at the end of the quarter, registering a decrease of 60 units during the year mainly due to the transfer of the Pizza Hut restaurants located in Russia to a third party as announced on the 31st of May. Recall that in the case of Germany, we will also transfer before year-end, the 85 Pizza Hut restaurants in the country. In Slide 16, we show the cash and debt evolution. The cash level increased by EUR 21 million to EUR 261 million during the last quarter. And the net financial debt ex IFRS16, decreased in [ EUR 60 million ] to EUR 417 million. With this, the deleverage achieved since the start of the pandemic is EUR 212 million. The group's leverage ratio continues to get lower and closed the quarter at 1.9x versus 2 on the previous quarter. Once more recall that this leverage is at the low end of the group's target range of 2, 2.5x for the current year. Nonetheless, our expectation is to see an increase in the use of resources during the last quarter of the year, as we've previously discussed. On Slide 17, we provide the financial debt structure and maturity profile where there has been no relevant changes in the quarter. We have a comfortable maturity profile until the end of 2024 when we will have the maturity of our syndicated bonds. In the interim, our expectation points to a sustainable and continued increase in the cash flow generation of the group. Next, we will focus on the results by different segments. On Slide 18, you can find the breakdown of revenue, EBITDA and the number of restaurants that we have in each segment. Starting with CEE region on Slide 19. Sales reached EUR 301 million, breaking the EUR 300 million threshold of revenues for first time ever and registering an increase of almost 20% compared to the same period of 2021. All the countries reported well above double-digit growth despite the negative currency evolution in some of them. The EBITDA generated stood at EUR 62 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21%, with most of the countries reporting margins above 20%. During Q3, [ 7 ] New restaurants were opened. In Slide 20, you can find the main metrics for Western Europe. Sales in the region reached EUR 214 million in the quarter, up 11% compared to Q3 2021. Sales performance was very uneven across countries with Spain and Germany posting increases of more than 20% while France recorded a 3% decline. The EBITDA generated in the region reached almost EUR 28 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 13%. Once again, profitability level shows significant differences between countries. While the Spanish businesses generated an EBITDA margin of 20%, in France it was less than 5%. Finally, AmRest opened 8 more restaurants during the quarter. In Slide 21, we have China, where we saw a strong recovery in sales during the 3Q after a previous quarter, severely affected by COVID restrictions. Revenues amounted EUR 26.7 million. Nonetheless, this is 1.9% lower than those obtained in the same period of 2021. However, this level of sales almost double 2Q 2022 revenues. Nevertheless, the country continues to grapple with the announcement of new restrictions that affect mobility and the ability to generate business in the region. Despite the situation, the level of EBITDA generated was EUR 7.7 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 28.9%. The total number of restaurants in the region increased to 80, following the opening of 2 new equity restaurants during the quarter. And with all these numbers back to Eduardo.

Thank you, Santi. Let me sum up with some of our thoughts. We have one more time, a very strong quarter. In AmRest, we provide an attractive and well-balanced service offer, and our guests are responding, increasing the visits to our restaurants. At the same time, we are seeing how the share of the QSR segment is growing. AmRest's strength on the quick service has historically shown great resilience, even in periods in contraction in consumption. Given the prospect of deteriorating consumer spending power, at AmRest, we believe that balance sheet strength, accelerating digitalization and efficiency gains, positioning in the right categories with the right brands and the right geographies will be paramount in the coming quarters. Many thanks to everyone. And with this, we are open to any questions that you may have.

[Operator Instructions] We have a written question, which reads, good afternoon, could you please comment on the plans regarding your business in Russia? Are you planning to dispose these assets or cease to operate? If yes, when it can happen and what would be the impact on your financials?

Okay. On that questions, as we have stated previously in other calls and in the statements that we have made in the stock exchange, we are currently evaluating the options that we have on the Russia business. In fact, if we remember on the third -- on the second quarter results, we made an impairment in terms of the results of the company given the analysis that we made on that, in which the amount that we put as an impairment was EUR 52.9 million. And that's the information that we have until this moment on that.

We have 2 audio questions queued. Our first question from Jak Krawczyk from RBI.

It's Jakub Krawczyk from RBI. I have a question which was partly answered by the comment on Russia. But basically, what I'm trying to understand is why did -- why was Russia the best-performing segment in terms of trends and -- for margin trend and EBITDA trend and also obviously accounted for a larger part of EBITDA than in the past. Is this because you're simply cutting your investments and then causing some FX effect? Is that my understanding?

In terms of Russia, there are several factors. But as you mentioned, an important one, of course, is the movement that the ruble has had versus the euro, that's in terms of translation of financials. And the other part, as we were saying, and we have stated for the moment, we are stopping the investments that we have on that market.

Our next question is from JP Rolandez from L.T. FUNDS.

And first congratulations for yet another great set of quarterly results. That's the fruit of hard work. My question is, at this time, is general. You are reaching some sort of maturity in terms of the number of restaurants. You are -- you have disposed off some restaurants in Russia. You are going to lose some restaurants in Germany. So AmRest has grown tremendously over the last 10 years. And now it's posing, which is good because that's deleveraging the business. But -- what is the next step in terms of development and store opening for the next 3 to 5 years.

Yes, JP, and thank you for your question and the follow-up on the company. And you made a very interesting point. In the latest years, we have been seeing different effects that are having an implication on AmRest and in the strategy. As you mentioned, of course, the focus of the company was in terms of growth. And no one was expecting what happened with COVID and the effect that had on us, of course, we said we were focusing on how we could make the business more profitable and how we could get out of that impact of COVID in the best way. So that led us to a lot of initiatives in terms of how to make the company more efficient. And that's what we are facing at this moment. So it's making the evolution of the portfolio, focusing on the profitability of the businesses on the countries, on the brands. As you have seen in the latest quarters, some of the [ doc ] stores, we have been focusing on closing some of the [ doc ] stores that have no sense in terms of the portfolio. So we are reaching that evolution in terms of where we are focused. As how we have mentioned in the past, this is about increasing the quality of the sales and the quality of the profitability. How we can get assured that we continue to grow because this is something that we have continued to be doing in terms of the net store openings. We included that path, and that's something that given that with the leverage that we are showing, we are getting to the levels that we feel more comfortable. The cash flow should be growing in terms of OpEx. And that's the mix that we are seeing. But also one of the things that we are considering right now, given the macroeconomic issues that are affecting the different businesses, we are quite pleased and very happy that we have a stronger balance sheet in order to face these challenging times. But one of the things that is important for us is growth, is profitability and commitment for the long-term story of AmRest.

And in concrete terms, maybe it's too early to discuss this. Maybe you are preparing a 5-year plan or a 3-year plan, but what can we expect in terms of net new store openings per year. Is it 3%? Is it 5%? Is it...

As you are saying, we have really a big level of uncertainty in front of us. We are updating the numbers because the situation changes very, very, very fast. So what I can tell you is that in the short term, as we are bound to know the fourth quarter should be a quarter of very strong new openings in terms of stores. We are currently updating our forecast for the next year. So 2 points over there. As we've pointed, the deleverage of the company is already completed. So that means that the cash flow that we are generating is going to be able instead to reduce their debt level to use it in further investment. So we should increase the acceleration in terms of growth. But growth, it has like many dimensions. This is something that we were trying to convey during the last quarter. The fact that we have record sales levels is because we are investing a lot in digitalization. We are adapting efficiently to the new distribution channels, to the new demands from the guests. And all this is growth. So the growth is over there. I think that we have right now is a solid base in order really to put an extra speed in that regard.

Okay. And congratulations again because the results are great.

Thank you very much.

We have another written question and it reads, can you please give us some color on weak France performance.

Sorry, operator, the line broke a little bit. Can you repeat the question, please?

Of course, the question says, can you please give us some color on weak France performance?

So in France, we are operating different brands. We are operating KFC. We are operating Pizza Hut. We are also operating Sushi Shop business. And here, what we have to do in order to see the full picture is to take a long-term view of what is going on in this market. The Sushi Shop brand is a brand with very strong capacity in terms of delivery. The performance of this brand during COVID times has been extremely strong. We have very growth -- very, very, very strong growth. And it was really very supportive in the balance of the portfolio of AmRest. Right now, one of the effects that we are seeing is a certain level of a slowdown in delivery in some of the markets. So this comparison make us to have this decrease in terms of seller evolution in France. But as I said before, I think that what is important over here is to contextualize and you see the long-term trend in the market.

[Operator Instructions]

Maybe at this stage, I will take the privilege of a moderator and ask a couple of questions from my end. So I will start with congratulating on results. I have to join to that very strong top line and nice profitability and the profitability is the point I wanted to start with. You've said before that you are working on improving the margins and are you concentrating currently more on the cost on the business on hiking prices? Or was it a combination of all what should we expect? And how do you see the price elasticity for your products being [indiscernible] on the lower end of the market, which is good given the current circumstances, but it also seems fairly sticky. So what's your plan for improving profitability?

Lukasz, we are focusing in all the items of the P&L. And if I may start with revenues, the thing is that we are always giving big value to our consumers. And we are focusing lately in revenue management initiatives. And this is not only a matter of raising prices because, of course, that has a limit, but it's working in terms of the mix of the products. It's also working in terms of the menus that we are offering to the consumers and adapting to the needs that our consumers have in different times, in different types of the economy. So it's very important for us to have a price that makes them reflect and gives value to our consumers and that also reflects in part all the effects that we are having in terms of inflation. So this is a balance, as we mentioned. As mentioned during the conference call, we have been making a certain adjustment through the year in order to try to keep as much as possible in the profitability. But one thing that is clear for us is that not all the effects that we are having in terms of cost can be translated to the consumer. And we need to be more efficient in how we serve in order to get that, but part of it, as I was saying, needs to be adjusted via pricing. In terms of cost, we have a team that is, of course, looking, which are the trends in the different economy, in the different products. We have some products in which we have some coverage in terms of pricing, in terms of duration. But as you can see, right now, there are some new negotiations that we are making. There are prices mainly in the energy that are growing in a very important way. So we are also focusing is, how we can be more efficient in terms of the usage of energy, in terms of the restaurants and how we can serve our consumers an initiative that goes all across the organization. But of course, we keep always keeping the service that we give to our consumers. Also, we have to focus in terms of G&A, how we can be more efficient in G&A, how we can prioritize the projects. And one of the things that we are doing is focusing on the things that give additional value to our consumers. But this is a tough time for all the industry and all the economies, and we need to be and proved to be more efficient in all the sense.

Okay. And I also wanted to touch upon the fourth quarter trends. You said that so far in the fourth quarter, you've seen some small deterioration because like-for-like for 9 months was 22%. For year-to-date period, it was 21%, so some slowdown. Is it across the board all the markets or are you seeing from the regions, recently we're hearing [indiscernible] claiming that Polish customer is eventually trading down. So maybe there are differences in terms of trends between the regions.

If you don't mind, Lukasz, about the fourth quarter is something that we will speak on the next presentation. So really what we wanted to convey there is that the same-store sales continue to be strong, that the momentum continues, but a deep analysis in terms of the dynamics for this quarter, it's something that in 3 months we will meet and we will discuss if you don't mind.

Another question, Eduardo, you've said that in the fourth quarter, there should be more of net adds sorry -- gross adds than first 9 months, so roughly 15 restaurants coming. Am I reading that right?

We expect to have a higher number of openings that's the planned number. So we have this seasonality. Usually, we have a very high level of concentration of new openings during the fourth quarter of the year, we expect really to see this. But one of the things that we are observing is that it takes longer than before to open a restaurant. So to gather up the equipment that we need in order to operate in a restaurant, it has increased in several months during this year. So that is why we may see certain level of delays for this year with respect to the numbers that we were provided as a guidance in the past. But that doesn't mean that we change anything, is that perhaps instead of to have certain openings in 1 month, they are going to be delayed 2 or 3 or 4 month stop. So the trend, as we said, continues. We have the resources, we have the know-how, we have the white space in order to continue to be growing from this organic perspective. And that will continue to be the trend.

Okay. And in the fourth quarter, you're about to hand over the 85 Pizza Huts in Germany, should we expect another team of restaurants being closed? And where are you in optimization? Is it the end? Or we are still -- we should still expect the restaurants to be closed?

So in terms of business units, there is nothing else at this moment on the table. But no, this is not finished. So one of the things that is going to happen in our portfolio is that we are going to become more active in nonorganic activity, and that may have impact in terms of reviewing the existing portfolio, both in terms of alliance and in terms of disposition or transferring certain parts of the portfolio. So right now, what we have visibility is the transfer of this Pizza Hut business. But the group right now, it has the capacity and the willing to be focused on analyzing the fit of every part of a portfolio, to grow also from nonorganic perspective, if there are opportunities that justify the effort. We are open to everything.

Okay. And going back to previous questions on long-term development prospects, what are the KPIs you are looking at before accelerating the growth, is your balance sheet, is it interest rate environment, is it the consumer sentiment, the GDP growth, what has to happen for you to step on the pedal and move forward faster than over the year?

And then I would say, all the topics that you have mentioned have a decision on this one. And one of the topics that is quite relevant for us is the white space. Also that's an exercise that our development team does on a frequent basis. For the brands that we have in different countries, which is the potential of openings that we can have, which are the offerings in terms of sites that we can have in each of the regions. That's one part in terms of the development part. Other parts that we need to see is how we are financially. And as we mentioned, right now, we are -- we have a stronger balance sheet than the one that we have in previous year with a lower leverage. The third pillar also is what's happening outside and how the economy is behaving, how the consumers are behaving. And all this mix is the one that we put into consideration in order to make those decisions. But you have to take into consideration one thing. Opening a restaurant is something that takes quite some time. So we are working on that machinery in order to get those openings. It takes time, of course, to locate the proper site, to make the analysis in terms of the return that, that site has, the potential that it has, making the negotiations with the landlords, having also the correct permits with the government that in the construction side, whatever is needed in order to do that. So the process to open a restaurant is quite a big one. So we need to always make adjustments within the year but something that we have always considered and we have been saying is the growth story of AmRest, we continue committed to that. And of course, when we feel that we have -- we are in a better shape, of course, we can be expecting that the growth of the company will continue.

So if I may. So one of the things now that we have been also trying to convey is the importance to build the numbers of KPIs in order to understand the [indiscernible]. Once more do we focus just in the number of restaurants is a little bit misleading. There is nothing more expensive but really to open nonprofitable restaurants and to get it run. So the point is not only about opening restaurants. That is why we are so focused on introducing KPIs in terms of the quality of the sales that we have because this is really the key, to have profitable sales, profitable restaurants and really to do good calls in this regard.

Okay. Great. And in fact, that's all I had on my left. Are there any questions in the room?

We have no further questions on the telephone lines.

Excellent. Thank you, everybody, for joining the third quarter results as we -- it was great to share this time with you as we have been sharing. We are committed to the growth story of AmRest and delivering the best results that the team is working in order to do. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

Thank you.

Thank you.