Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 12, 2026
What were the key takeaways from Applied Materials, Inc.'s November 12, 2026 earnings call?
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) reported record revenue of $10.4 billion, reflecting a 53% year-over-year increase. The company achieved a non-GAAP EPS of $4.16, up 92% year-over-year, and maintained strong gross margins of 50.6%. Management provided optimistic guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, projecting revenue of approximately $11.1 billion, up 58% year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.35, up 83% year-over-year, indicating continued robust demand driven by AI and semiconductor growth.
What topics did Applied Materials, Inc. cover?
- Record Revenue and Profitability: Applied Materials achieved record revenue of $10.4 billion in Q4 2026, which is up 53% year-over-year. This performance marks the highest dollar growth in the company's history, showcasing strong demand across its semiconductor systems and services segments.
- Strong Demand for Semiconductor Systems: Management highlighted that semiconductor systems revenue reached $8 billion, up 64% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in DRAM and advanced packaging. Gary Dickerson stated, "We see tremendous demand from customers" in these segments, indicating a robust market environment.
- Positive Guidance for Q1 2027: For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Applied Materials expects revenue of $11.1 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which is up 58% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS is projected to be $4.35, reflecting an 83% increase year-over-year, signaling strong momentum into the new fiscal year.
- Continued Gross Margin Expansion: The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.6%, up 250 basis points year-over-year, driven by favorable product mix and higher pricing. Brice Hill noted, "We plan to drive further gross margin expansion by introducing more enabling products," indicating a focus on profitability.
- Supply Chain and Capacity Management: Management emphasized the importance of supply chain capacity to meet growing demand, stating they are working closely with suppliers to align on capacity ramp expectations. Brice Hill mentioned, "We expect to double our systems output from Q4 26 levels by 2028," highlighting proactive measures to address supply constraints.
What were Applied Materials, Inc.'s November 12, 2026 results?
- Revenue: $10.4 billion (+53% YoY)
- Non-GAAP EPS: $4.16 (+92% YoY)
- Gross Margin: 50.6% (+250 bps YoY)
- Operating Margin: 35.3% (+670 bps YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $3.3 billion
- Free Cash Flow: $2.6 billion
Applied Materials is well-positioned for continued growth driven by strong demand in semiconductor systems, particularly in AI and advanced packaging. The company's proactive supply chain management and capacity expansion plans are critical to meeting this demand. Investors should monitor the execution of these strategies and the overall health of the semiconductor market as potential catalysts for stock performance.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Michael Sullivan
executiveGood afternoon, everyone, and thanks for being with us on today's call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO, and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I want to remind you that this call contains forward-looking statements. These statements carry risks and uncertainties that might cause our actual results to differ. You can find information about these risks and uncertainties discussed in our most recent Form 10-Q and other filings with the SEC. This call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are available in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which you can find on our website at ir.appliedmaterials.com. Also, any comments about calendar 2026 refer to fiscal Q2 2026 through fiscal Q1 2027. With that introduction, I'd now like to hand the call over to Gary Dickerson.
Gary Dickerson
executiveThanks, Mike. Quarterly results came in at the top end of our guidance range, and with revenue and profitability at all-time highs, Applied posted a record fiscal 2026 and our seventh straight year of growth. I want to thank our employees and supply chain partners worldwide for their outstanding execution this year, which let us keep customer trust high through an industry ramp unlike any we've seen. Since this is our year-end call, I'll start with a quick look at how we performed in 2026. I'll give our perspective on market conditions as demand continues to build, and then I'll explain how Applied has put together the most enabling portfolio to move the AI computing roadmap forward, which provides us with a strong basis for revenue and profit growth across multiple years. During fiscal 2026, revenue increased by over 21% while earnings climbed at close to double that pace, which shows the operating leverage built into our model. Using the midpoint of the guidance for our first quarter, we anticipate semiconductor systems revenue will rise by more than 40% in calendar 2026. AI computing is fueling robust long-term expansion in semiconductors and wafer fab equipment, and Applied is outpacing that wafer fab equipment market thanks to leadership positions we've established in the technologies that enable AI computing most and carry the highest value. This outperformance stems from growth in our addressable market along with meaningful share gains in advanced foundry logic and in DRAM. It additionally reflects our strength in advanced packaging, where revenue should rise roughly 90% this calendar year, as well as our expanding inspection and metrology business, where we remain on track to grow revenue by more than 50% in calendar 2026. Advanced chip demand continues to run well ahead of what supply can meet, and closing that gap will require multiyear spending on additional fab capacity across the industry; in our view, 2027 will set another record, both for the market and for Applied. We presently expect wafer fab equipment demand to grow by over 30% compared with last year, and we believe we are positioned to once again outgrow the market. The pace of industry growth will hinge on how rapidly the entire semiconductor ecosystem—from clean room construction through equipment components and raw material supply—can scale up. At Applied, we are pursuing several steps to ensure the capacity and resources are available to support our customers as they ramp. We've been engaging with customers more tightly around demand planning. Rolling eight-quarter projections and orders placed further ahead are now coming from our biggest accounts. Collaboration with suppliers is getting deeper too. To give you an example, I sat down not long ago with over 250 senior executives representing our key suppliers, and we aligned on what capacity ramp to expect and how prepared we are to serve various growth scenarios. Within an AI data center, silicon accounts for roughly 60% of the capital cost, and leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM and advanced packaging make up over 85% of that silicon content. Those three areas with the biggest influence on the AI computing road map should be the quickest-expanding segments of wafer fab equipment in 2027 and jointly account for roughly 75% of WFE growth through 2030. That is precisely where Applied has put investment across the last several years to assemble the industry's most enabling portfolio, which positions us to beat the market once more in 2027 and afterward as we picked up share at major device inflections. In mid-October, we introduced the Epic Center in Silicon Valley and held an investor breakfast in San Francisco, and thanks to everyone who joined us in person or online. During that investor event, we laid out 3 main themes: the unprecedented opportunities the AI era creates, the distinctive advantages in Applied's capabilities and portfolio for pursuing those opportunities, and how we are generating more value for customers while capturing more value for Applied. With global AI deployment speeding up and AI adoption widening quickly, an intense contest for AI computing leadership exists that boils down to 2 interconnected races, and Applied sits at the center of both. Race one concerns technology leadership, made possible by faster chip and packaging road maps that deliver gains in data center tokens per second per watt. The second race is about rapidly standing up new fabs to add chipmaking capacity, while simultaneously improving output and yield at plants already running. Here at Applied, we've built the sector's leading lineup across materials, integration, and yield innovation technologies. Our materials innovation leadership rests on a wide, interconnected technology portfolio. We address roughly 55% of all wafer fab equipment, and we're #1 in CVD, PVD, epitaxy, CMP, implant, thermal processing, e-beam, and conductor etch for advanced foundry logic and DRAM. At leading-edge nodes, tighter feature dimensions, 3D architectures, and the introduction of new materials together generate tremendous process complexity. How process steps interact matters greatly, particularly in engineering interfaces, where material layers now measure merely 1 to 2 nanometers in thickness. That is why codeveloping deposition, etch, treatment, inspection and measurement technologies and resolving integration challenges right from the outset of development is such a strong advantage, and one that only Applied is positioned to provide. Applied has likewise established world-class integration, modeling and simulation teams plus extensive lab infrastructure to speed transistor, wiring, memory and advanced packaging innovations. As yield and output grow more critical for customers, Applied is launching new yield innovations; we offer the highest resolution and fastest e-beam imaging paired with industry-leading AI-enabled services that we call AIX. E-beam and AIX allow faster learning loops in R&D, speedier transfer and qualification of new technologies in pilot production, and more good ships in high-volume manufacturing. Applied has by far the largest installed base of connected systems, with more than 37,000 chambers linked to AIX as of today, growing over 20% per year. Our EPIC platform accelerates progress in materials, integration, and yield. Through Epic, Applied is able to collaborate with customers and partners on technology creation, giving them much earlier access to next-generation applied technology, faster learning cycles, and quicker transfer and ramp to high yield and output. Applied's take on Epic is that it lets us be designed in sooner when new chip and packaging architectures emerge, gives us a clearer view across several generations of customer road maps, and boosts the productivity of our R&D. Four more Epic partners have come on board since the last earnings call — Intel, Kioxia, BESI and UCLA — taking announced EPIC partnerships to 15 in total, which plainly confirms how valuable co-innovating with Applied is. During our investor event, we also shared the value creation goals we've set for the 2025 to 2030 period: securing over 2 points of additional wafer fab equipment share, boosting service revenue per installed base tool by at least 20%, and lifting gross margin along with operating margin by 5 points and 10 points, respectively. I'm confident that in 2027 we'll deliver meaningful progress against these goals, and all of our teams are pushing toward even higher targets. Before I turn things over to Brice, here's a quick recap. Applied Materials had a record year in fiscal 2026, and we remain on track to grow our semiconductor systems business by more than 40% this calendar year. Our growth is outpacing the wafer fab equipment market, and that comes from the strong leadership position we've established in leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM and advanced packaging. Those are the most enabling areas for AI computing, they're the fastest-growing portions of wafer fab equipment in 2027, and they're where Applied has invested strategically to build the industry's most enabling portfolio. We view 2027 as another record year for the industry and another year of outperformance for Applied, and we expect to make significant progress toward our long-term targets in that year. Put simply, AI is fueling a multiyear expansion in semiconductor demand, and Applied has never been better positioned to lead and outgrow the market. Brice, over to you.
Brice Hill
executiveThanks, Gary. I'm glad to say that Applied delivered a third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with sequential and year-over-year gains in revenue, operating profit and non-GAAP earnings per share. Fiscal Q4 also marks our 14th quarter in a row of year-over-year gross margin improvement, a sign of how highly customers value our portfolio of products and services, which is strongly enabling. We expect to outperform the market this calendar year, with robust growth in DRAM, leading-edge foundry logic and advanced packaging — precisely the areas where we've been investing to lead. I want to thank our manufacturing and operations teams and our partners for meeting further increases in customer demand and for helping make these strong results possible. In this call, I’ll update you on demand conditions, review our fiscal 2026 and Q4 results, and share our Q1 business outlook. All the leading indicators we monitor continue to move higher. Cloud CapEx is projected to increase by over 50% in 2027 and to exceed $1 trillion by a wide margin. Use of AI tokens is rising exponentially. The expanding range of AI models is making more applications possible and creating positive economics both for service providers and for early adopters such as Applied Materials. AI has become a central element of daily work at Applied. Over 80% of our employees rely on tools like Microsoft CoPilot and Anthropics Cloud, as well as newer domain-specific tools for materials discovery and engineering. Inferencing is producing favorable outcomes across the entire company—spanning equipment and software development, field service operations, and back office functions. Every one of our software developers relies on AI, and their productivity improves by an average of more than 40%. Consequently, our monthly token consumption expanded by over 50x during this year, and we anticipate that our token and task usage will rise substantially in 2027 as we discover additional ways to leverage AI for accelerating revenue, enhancing customer service, and operating more efficiently. AI keeps generating robust incremental growth in wafer demand, and leading-edge logic plus DRAM fabs are running at full utilization. NAND trails somewhat behind, and ICAP has now reached a healthy zone. Looking ahead to the near term, one of our biggest priorities is growing supply chain capacity so that we can build more systems. Throughout this year, we have increased the demand forecast we give our suppliers each quarter, and as the 2027 demand outlook keeps rising, they are working alongside us. Our supply chain has been mapped out, and our teams and partners are carrying out plans to handle pinch points and produce another year of very strong growth. When we look at the medium term, clean room capacity continues to be a gating factor determining how much equipment the industry can consume. Luckily, we are tracking more than 20 fab ramps and line expansions in 2027 alone. We have set up additional teams along with AIX technologies, and these will assist our customers in speeding up those ramps while getting the most wafer output and yields possible. Over the longer run, the demand signals coming from customers are still quite positive — more than 10 major fabs and expansion projects have been added to our tracker for a third consecutive quarter. Many of these new projects are not expected to come online before 2029 and 2030, which indicates that demand across the 5- and 10-year horizon will run far above what we had planned previously in both logic and memory. At Applied, we are already working alongside customers to forecast what they will require through 2030. Supporting our customers' expansion means committing capital now: by 2028, our systems output should be twice what it was in Q4 26, and by 2030, manufacturing and lab capacity will be more than doubled. Next, a brief recap of fiscal 2026 — revenue increased more than 21%, reaching $34.4 billion; non-GAAP gross margin expanded 130 basis points, hitting 50.1%; and non-GAAP EPS advanced 37%, arriving at $12.89. Both semi systems and AGS delivered double-digit revenue gains, while gross margins improved roughly 150 basis points in each of those segments. Operating cash flow totaled $8.9 billion, an 11% increase. Following $2.7 billion of capex, we generated $6.2 billion in free cash flow, a 9% increase. We returned more than $4.7 billion to shareholders — nearly $3.2 billion through buybacks and $1.6 billion via cash dividends. Turning to Q4: we posted the biggest dollar growth ever in our history, with revenue hitting a record $10.4 billion — that's 14% higher quarter over quarter and 53% higher year over year. Non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 50.6%, 20 basis points better sequentially and 250 basis points better year over year, aided by favorable mix and higher pricing. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to a record 35.3%, up 130 basis points quarter over quarter and 670 basis points year over year. We delivered solid operating leverage: non-GAAP operating expenses came in at 15.2% of revenue, a year-over-year drop of 430 basis points, and non-GAAP EPS climbed to an all-time high of $4.16 — a 19% gain from the prior quarter and 92% higher than a year ago. Our plan is to drive gross margin up further by introducing additional enabling products and capturing a portion of the value they deliver to customers. We also plan to extend operating leverage and margins, because our AI and automation initiatives allow us to expand support capabilities while adding very few people. Turning to how the segments performed in Q4: Semiconductor Systems set a revenue record of $8 billion, rising 14% quarter over quarter and 64% year over year, which included record sales in Korea and Taiwan. DRAM delivered strong growth, exactly as we had anticipated, and we achieved record revenue in both DRAM and advanced packaging. Turning to Q4 product results, we set records for revenue and deposition across PVD, CVD, ALD and epitaxy. We likewise reached record revenue in etch, CMP and process control. Non-GAAP gross margin for the segment increased 240 basis points versus a year ago, reaching 55.2%, while non-GAAP operating margin jumped more than 940 basis points year-over-year to 39%. Applied Global Services reported record revenue of $1.9 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by record revenue in both services and spares. AGS gross margin improved 100 basis points year-over-year to 35.1%, and non-GAAP operating margin climbed almost 170 basis points to 30.5%. Other revenue came in at $517 million, matching what we had expected for the quarter, and we produced record operating cash flow of $3.3 billion in Q4. Capital expenditures fell on a sequential basis to $684 million, which gave us record free cash flow of $2.6 billion. More than $2.4 billion went back to shareholders, made up of $2 billion in stock buybacks and $421 million in cash dividends. We still have $10.8 billion left under our share buyback authorization, and we continue to anticipate returning 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders over time. Let me now take you through the Q1 outlook. Just to remind everyone, this quarter spans 14 weeks, so AGS revenue growth gets a boost during the period. We anticipate total company revenue of $11.1 billion, give or take $500 million — at the midpoint that's a 58% increase versus a year ago. Non-GAAP EPS is expected to land at $4.35, plus or minus $0.20, which is 83% higher year-over-year. Within that guidance, Semiconductor Systems revenue comes in at about $8.7 billion, a 69% year-over-year gain. Our inaugural AGS quarter should hit $2 billion, up 28% from last year, while other revenue lands near $400 million. Non-GAAP gross margin is projected to climb to roughly 50.8%, an improvement of 170 basis points year-over-year, and non-GAAP operating expenses should be approximately $1.7 billion. Regarding the non-GAAP tax rate, our model assumes approximately 13%. Finally, to help with your modeling after that 14-week quarter has passed, AGS revenue in Q2 should remain near Q1 levels, and OpEx in Q2 is expected to come in at about 15% of revenue. In summary, AI continues to add a rapidly expanding, incremental demand layer to the industry. The investments we have made to help enable this new wave have provided us with a rich and growing portfolio of highly enabling products and services. Our technology leadership in the most critical markets is now clearly reflected in our strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion. Our emphasis on operating leverage is producing record operating margins and helping drive robust cash flow and shareholder distributions, including the biggest quarterly share buyback in more than 8 years. We still have long visibility from our customers, anticipate another strong record year in 2027, and are making substantial investments so we can ramp to higher levels beyond next year. We have high confidence in our strategy and that we will show continuous progress on share gains, gross margin expansion and operating leverage. Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.
Michael Sullivan
executiveThanks, Brice. <<operator_script>>. Operator, let's please begin.
Chris Muse
analystTo kick things off, I'd really like to understand how demand has changed or evolved across the last three months. You brought up visibility at 28 and 29. I'd be curious to learn more about how those conversations are developing? And if you could be somewhat specific by end market — foundry, logic, DRAM, NAND? And I guess as part of that, Brice, you mentioned doubling your system output, but also doubling manufacturing and lab capacity by 2030 — if you could sort of bridge what kind of growth that implies overall for shipments into the 20 and the 30 time frame as part of it, that would be very helpful.
Brice Hill
executiveAbsolutely. Thanks for the question, C.J. — good to hear from you. Now, regarding demand conditions during the past 90 days, we've continued to observe growth from our customers. As we noted, we added over 10 projects to the factory tracker — those consist of new fab construction projects along with conversions of existing fabs — making it the third consecutive quarter in which more than 10 projects have been added to that tracker. So conditions continue to strengthen. In leading-edge logic and DRAM, the market remains constrained, and as a result customers are trying to add as much capacity as they can and are pulling projects forward wherever possible. The conditions we're seeing remain much like what we saw in earlier quarters, and from that standpoint things keep getting stronger. Turning to investments in capacity, we're adding more of it. We'll have the ability to double what we produce by 2028. We just posted an $8 billion quarter, so you can do the math on that; that's the capacity capability we'll be holding. And because we aren't at full utilization right now, doubling production is one matter, while doubling our capacity is a separate matter, and we'll get that done by 2030. That will permit an even higher level of output. Our thinking is that, from a production standpoint, we need enough capacity to handle every possible scenario, and we are certainly monitoring the accelerating growth rate to ensure we can meet it. Beyond that, we are passing all of this information along to our suppliers as well.
Gary Dickerson
executiveCJ, beyond the leading-edge foundry, logic and DRAM that AI is driving, there’s one more thing I’d mention: advanced packaging is another field where we’re seeing enormous customer demand. We’ve discussed how our business in that area rose 90% during the calendar year. In ’27 we expect very strong growth there as well, and in that segment going forward too.
Chris Muse
analystThat's really useful. Just one more quick question. Could you talk a bit about the work you're doing with your suppliers, and with your suppliers' own suppliers? Are you putting up deposits in advance — I'd like to hear how you're enabling what ought to be yet another huge growth vector across the next 2, 3-plus years?
Brice Hill
executiveSure, C.J., good question. We refer to having more than 2,000 suppliers, and every one of them has to raise output. The first step we took was making certain that all the data flows from our customers through to our suppliers. We mention the 8-quarter forecast — we're getting that data over to them. We're delivering it in detail so they can plan their production. Second, we're collaborating closely on the real schedules for each quarter as we move through those 8 quarters of the year; and when it comes to investments, I believe every supplier has an incentive to make those investments and improve its own profitability. So no problems on that front, in our view. And looking at it — we don't see any obstacles standing in the way of the higher demand levels that are being contemplated. There will be plenty of pinch points, as we've discussed. Essentially all the suppliers must add capacity and add labor, so we're working through that with each of them.
Timothy Arcuri
analystBrice, could you give us some idea of the mix you're assuming for fiscal Q1? I ask because DRAM rose a lot in fiscal Q4. So I'm curious whether you expect it to climb sharply once more. Just if you could give us a sense of how the mix looks.
Brice Hill
executiveTim, yes, we anticipate comparable trends for Q1, with DRAM and leading logic both very strong; in our view, both of those end markets are constrained. Customers are therefore doing everything they can to add capacity as fast as possible. So we actually expect a mix similar to Q4. And looking across the year for '27, we expect that to remain roughly unchanged. So leading-edge DRAM and advanced packaging are the strongest growers for the year; and what changes for us in '27 is that ICAPs, the mature logic technologies, appear set to grow again and attract greater investment in 27, as the market has absorbed the capacity and is returning to normal from a capacity utilization standpoint.
Gary Dickerson
executiveYes. And Tim, one more point I’d probably add: compared with ICAP growth in 27, non-China is set to grow at a much quicker pace than China.
Timothy Arcuri
analystAll right, good. So, Gary, I just wanted to ask you this: the stock market at times runs ahead of fundamentals, though not always. And we're aware there's a mismatch between what the supply chain is building when it comes to gigawatts that will be ready from a shell standpoint versus what the chips are being built. So have you noticed in the past, I don't know, a few weeks or months or anything, have any customers come to you and say, "Hey, this seems great, but I might not want to take that tool exactly when I thought I would, and so maybe I'd like to take it a quarter or 2 or like a month or 2 later"? Are you seeing any of that, or is literally everyone pushing to get tools as fast as they can?
Gary Dickerson
executiveNo, very clear. The answer is no. Nobody is saying that they don't want the tools as fast as we can get them. I've been traveling quite a bit over the last couple of months, and we're constantly receiving requests from customers to accelerate our ramp and deliver earlier.
Vivek Arya
analystGary, I'd like to put the final question a bit differently. Suppose there is some slowdown in data center build-out — whether that comes next year or in 2028 — and it has an impact, what effect do you think that would have on the WFE forecast? Do you believe your customers are planning this deployment with a long-term view, so that a slowdown — any short-term one — won't throw them off? How should investors think about what happens to the semi cap industry if the build-out of data centers slows temporarily or for a somewhat longer stretch?
Gary Dickerson
executiveYes. Thanks for the question. So, as I said on the previous question, what I'm hearing from some of our leading customer CEOs — we meet with them monthly — is that they are really asking us to ramp faster. I think demand across all of those areas, particularly the ones driven by AI — leading foundry, logic, DRAM and advanced packaging demand — is significant. And as you know, ramping capacity takes time; so I mean, you have to begin with a view of computing demand, and everything we see, everything I hear when I talk with companies across the ecosystem, points to computing demand continuing to go higher. And so I don't see any signs from people that they're worried about ramping too quickly — it's really the opposite, where people want us to pull in and ramp faster. I don't know, Brice, if you'd like to add any color?
Brice Hill
executiveRight, and I’ll just add one point that’s probably not a surprise, but supply is greater than demand, particularly in DRAM and leading logic, so there’s a bit of cushion there. Sorry, I mean demand is greater than supply, so there’s a bit of cushion there. And then there are markets that are underserved right now as well, so we have the PC market, smartphone markets that are constrained, smart TVs that are constrained. So we believe there is a substantial cushion in the market even if data center demand were to be lower over the next 2 years, and as Gary pointed out, that is not what we are seeing, just to be clear.
Vivek Arya
analystOkay, that's really useful. For my follow-up, looking back at last year, at the start of it I believe the expectation was that semi systems would grow by more than 20%, correct? And the actual figure now looks like it will be nearer 40%, right? So the growth came in much faster. And the conservatism about clean room availability and so on was the same. So what improved as last year went on? And then I suppose the real question is this: when you say the industry will grow 30%, is that a fixed threshold? For instance, what could make the industry grow beyond 30%? For instance, why couldn't what happened in '26 also happen in '27?
Brice Hill
executiveYes, Vivek, great question; so we do believe clean room and clean room availability are the governing factor. Now, to your point, throughout last year, customers could either add clean room, pull projects forward, work on projects that raised output from their factories through upgrades and that kind of thing. So those are the tools customers have for increasing output. I think the macro equation at the end of the day is guided by the clean room that can become available.
Stacy Rasgon
analystFirst off, if we look at your equipment, you're set to grow equipment by more than 40% in '26. I suppose my question is, what do you figure WC is actually growing at on a percentage basis in 2026? And since you see WD growing more than 30% in 2017, should we be expecting that same type of outperformance in '27 versus WP that you're — that we're seeing in '26?
Brice Hill
executiveStacy. Yes, we do believe we're outperforming WFE in '26, and we expect that to be the case in '27 as well, and that comes on the strength of our top positions in leading logic DRAM and advanced packaging and the strong mix toward those being the fast-growing markets. So I think greater than 40% for our business, and whatever our business is, slightly less than that for WFE for '26.
Stacy Rasgon
analystUnderstood. As a follow-up, a few competitors mentioned near-term supply constraints that ended up affecting their guidance for the coming quarter. Are you actually running into any of that? It sounded like much the same kind of stuff you guys will be purchasing regardless. Are you seeing any of it? Is it actually — I mean, with the outlook as strong as it is, is it being impaired in any way by supply constraints? And would it be higher if you weren't seeing anything, or if you are seeing anything at all?
Brice Hill
executiveYes, Stacy, good question. As I've highlighted, there are a few pinch points from a supply perspective. Our Q1 number would be slightly higher if everything were perfectly available. It's not a major impact, but we are working closely with all the suppliers. You saw 3 sequential quarters of more than double-digit growth as we went through the year; and supply chain is just reacting greatly, and we're working hard to increase the output, and we expect to increase the output every quarter this year.
Gary Dickerson
executiveYes, Stacy, I would add — at least from my perspective, as I'm talking with all of our customers, they want us to ship as quickly as possible. I mean, demand is extremely strong. Compute demand is extremely strong; so — and as Brice said, I think our teams have done a really great job with ramping, but there's more work for us to do in '27, though we are in a very strong position to outperform going forward.
Atif Malik
analystMy question concerns the DRAM roadmap. One memory manufacturer plans to go the 3D DRAM route rather than 4x Square. I realize you've done a nice job in the master classes explaining this technology. Could you briefly remind us how Applied Materials is positioned product-wise and what the opportunity looks like for each of those approaches?
Gary Dickerson
executiveSure, and thanks for asking. One thing I'd do is direct you to the investor breakfast, where a slide showed both the foundry logic technology nodes and the DRAM technology nodes. What that slide shows for DRAM is that as you move to new versions of 6F square, we're picking up share. Then as you move to 4F square and 3D DRAM, our servable market grows and our share rises by multiple points. So from Applied Materials' perspective, DRAM is a very strong segment for us. We're considerably bigger than our closest process equipment rivals, and we have very deep co-innovation relationships with each of these different companies. So for Applied, we're well positioned. Adoption of 6F squared is certainly continuing, and those chips get new transistors for higher-speed bandwidth; then as you move to 4F squared and 3D DRAM, we showed at that breakfast that our SAM share is rising for 4Fs and 3D DRAM. We also show SAM per 100,000 wafer starts climbing substantially as you go from 6F square to 4Fs and then to 3D DRAM. So again, from Applied's perspective, we're deeply engaged with every one of these companies, and we hold the most enabling technologies for these major inflections. So again, this is an area where our co-innovation relationships are very, very deep.
Atif Malik
analystBrice, on the AGS side, you said it's growing 20% a year and that service revenue per tool is also up 20%. So what should we expect for AGS growth next year?
Brice Hill
executiveRight, we've called out mid-teens. So 15% is what I'd say for the horizon. How I'd frame it is this: the installed base rises 5% to 10% every year. Revenue per tool rises 5% to 10% every year, and that adds up to roughly 15%. This year we grew faster, helped by higher utilization throughout the ecosystem. So we're near 100%. That means you won't see that same one-off benefit in the years ahead. Still, those are the 2 components, and we expect to keep launching new products that assist customers in ramping and achieving the highest yields.
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan
analystI'd like to pick up where we left off on the supply question. It looks like you aren't building inventory as much, and days of inventory also fell by 10 days. So I'm curious why you wouldn't be more aggressive about building inventory. And on that same note, you gave some color on AGS in April. Do you have any thoughts about semi systems for the April quarter? And I have one quick follow-up.
Brice Hill
executiveYes. Thanks, Krish. Good to hear from you. So — we added a little more than $300 million of inventory during the quarter, bringing it to $6.9 billion. And I think that's fair. I'd like to have even more inventory than that; so we're working on it with the suppliers — and let me point out again, we had 3 quarters of double-digit increases in output; so we're definitely pushing the system, and we'll keep working on that as we go through the year. And it's a good point. We would like to have more inventory.
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan
analystDo you have any color on the April quarter, on any systems?
Brice Hill
executiveYes. There's nothing specific at this point. Yes, what we said was that we expect output to rise each quarter this year as we work with the supply chain.
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan
analystOne quick follow-up question. Gary, looking at this year, it appears DRAM WC grew quite a lot from the start of the year to the end. A big part of that comes from conversion, so how should we think about it for 2017? Do you expect conversion to slow down while greenfield picks up? Or do you think conversions will keep going next year?
Gary Dickerson
executiveMy sense is that customers are doing whatever they can to raise output, whatever they can on upgrades, and definitely far more aggressive spending on greenfield. So I'd say both. Something I've witnessed more than at any other time in my career is the emphasis on yield and output innovation. We discussed this at the investor breakfast. Each customer I speak with wants more good chips per wafer and more wafers out; so I'd say that — and again, these — I spent a fair amount of time traveling over the last couple of months with all of our leading customers — this is generating enormous pull for our AGS business. We mentioned having more than 37,000 chambers connected to these AI-enabled AIX servers, and Tim Dean and the investor breakfast discussed what we're doing in advanced matching in predictive models for preventative maintenance, a range of innovations we're pushing in our service business that I truly believe will speed up our service growth and certainly, that's extremely valuable for customers. So I see, again, stronger pull there in yield innovation and output innovation than I've ever seen in my career.
Harlan Sur
analystOn the Process Control side, your team is looking for better than 50% growth during this calendar year, and that beats what your total systems segment will do, powered by combined momentum in the e-beam and optical portfolios. You'll bring out your advanced packaging inspection platform next year. Yet next year also skews toward rapid technology migration, which means a heavy focus on yield and cost. With that in mind, does the Applied team anticipate PDC will also grow faster than your overall semi systems business next year?
Gary Dickerson
executiveThank you, Harlan. Well, as you pointed out, we're posting above 50% growth this year across both our e-beam and optical businesses and, naturally, for the business as a whole. The momentum we're seeing is really strong, and e-beam is out in front for us. Our nearest rival is half our size. As customers push through these major architecture shifts, that advantage keeps growing; with e-beam, whatever you can't see, you can't repair. We're able to peer inside structures and boost yield in a way nobody else can, and that brings big synergies too. Keith did a terrific job at the investor breakfast laying out how our leadership in e-beam imaging connects with the way we're speeding up process equipment breakthroughs so customers can make device architecture inflections happen. So I'd say it again: that synergy is more powerful today than it has ever been. Customer demand is extremely robust, and our pipeline of products is equally robust. In e-beam, we're going to launch several significant new innovations that matter greatly to our customers as they work to speed up their road maps. Turning to optical, you brought up advanced packaging — within our optical business we have quite a few major innovations that leave me feeling very optimistic. So my view is that PTC will again post very strong growth in '27. And on the whole, I believe Applied will likewise deliver strong growth in '27.
Harlan Sur
analystNow turning to Brice and AGS: one more quarter of robust expansion, the second one in a row, with operating margins above 30%. Incremental operating margins came in around the high 30s to low 40% range. That marks the third quarter in succession. Should we view the operating margin path on upcoming revenue growth this way? And perhaps over a somewhat longer horizon, within your calendar 30 total corporate operating margin goal of 40%, what do you assume for AGS operating margins inside that?
Brice Hill
executiveYes. Thank you, Harlan. We do anticipate continuing to improve operating margins and gross margins at AG. What you're seeing is that with new products coming to market, those offerings deliver a great deal of value to customers when it comes to yield and output management. and that is contributing to our margin growth. So it's certainly a contributor to the company's overall targets.
Jim Schneider
analystI wanted to ask whether you might be able to say something about how quickly you expect gross margin to expand over, let's say, the coming 4 or 6 quarters — obviously you're seeing some nice uplift in Q1. Could you perhaps discuss what's behind that besides mix? And could you also discuss how much improvement from operations or from pricing you might see across the next year.
Brice Hill
executiveJim, thanks for asking. What we're seeing is that we have some ramp costs, and those are being offset by the yield — sorry, by the output increases we're getting, and also by price increases on our tools as we launch new tools that are increasingly valuable for customers. So really, the dynamics we see are that a faster-growing semi market helps gross margins, and then pricing helps gross margins; in Q4, just printed, and in our Q1 outlook, we've got some ramp costs as we're adding employees and training employees for the higher level of ramp. That's the other side of the equation for us; but in general, we expect to keep advancing gross margin as we go through the year. And I think you can sort of judge the pace by what you see in Q4 and Q1.
Gary Dickerson
executiveJim, perhaps I could jump in here — I believe the setup we have is really positive, and we're leading in the market segments that are growing the quickest: foundry, logic, DRAM and advanced packaging. As we discussed at the investor breakfast, we're enabling those big architecture innovations for our customers and bringing high-value products to market, and that gives us a tailwind when it comes to our semi systems gross margin, so my expectation is that this keeps driving it forward. As I mentioned earlier on the call, the value from yield and output innovation in our services is also extremely valuable. So our position there is very strong. My expectation is that in '27 you'll see meaningful margin progress. Beyond that, as these new devices ramp, our positions are very strong. The value we're creating is very strong, and it leaves us well placed to share value with customers as those new technologies ramp.
Jim Schneider
analystThat's useful. Now, when we think about fiscal '27, could you give some color on what you're anticipating out of China? My guess is you're looking for growth that beats what we saw in '26, though perhaps trailing the broader market? And if you could also touch on how China affects gross margins, that would help.
Brice Hill
executiveJim, your read on the dynamic is correct, given the rapid expansion in leading-edge DRAM advanced packaging that's underway. Growth in China is something we do anticipate, but it won't match the pace of those markets driven by AI. As a result, the portion of our business tied to China, or shipments into China, will likely come in under 25% as we look toward '27.
Chris Caso
analystYeah, thanks. My first question is about the clean room space constraints you brought up in your remarks. It sounds like that's among the biggest caps on shipments as we go into next year. You mentioned having 8 quarters of visibility — what are you seeing into '28? And obviously, you're not giving guidance at this point; but could you speak to what you're seeing regarding your customers' clean room availability as we go forward — do we reach a point where we can see accelerated WFE growth because of clean room availability? Or does the industry stay tight, and in 28 does clean room remain a constraint even beyond that?
Brice Hill
executiveChris, the way I'd frame it is that this is an envelope that keeps expanding annually. We've discussed how companies keep adding projects quarter after quarter. Many of those — this quarter, for instance, over 10 projects were added — a big share of them land in 29 and 30 as far as when those fabs come online. So as customers keep adding to the road map, it grows each year, particularly in the outer years. Think of it as an expanding equation: you should expect the WFE market to keep growing as more clean room gets added year after year. That aligns with what we expect. We highlighted at that same investor breakfast that the growth rate for WFE that we experienced the last 10 years, we expect it to be larger as we look forward. And it's really this AI demand that's incremental to what we've seen in the past.
Chris Caso
analystJust to follow up, there's another topic you folks mentioned at the investor breakfast regarding hybrid bonding. Could you update us on that, plus your outlook and timing, given what the industry is showing? And especially since AI demand is increasingly driven by inference, what impact does that have on hybrid bonding adoption?
Brice Hill
executiveSure, I'll take that. I think what we see today is that it shows up in leading logic for some of the 3D packaging solutions. Then — we know every memory customer is evaluating it for HBM, and that work is in process. On actual insertion and adoption points, you'll have to talk to them. But in our view it's a very important technology; we believe it's critical to the 3D and advanced packaging market. And clearly, we're investing there.
Gary Dickerson
executiveYes. I believe when you look at power and performance, hybrid bonding matters a great deal for I/O density and for cutting down wiring length; so in every conversation I have with our customers, that subject comes up as a top priority; so adoption is happening in high-volume manufacturing in logic — but once again, this technology is extremely important for power and performance as we move ahead. And we discussed this at the investor breakfast; we have — we cover roughly 80% of the steps involved in hybrid bonding. And our standing in that market is very strong. We are certainly very strongly positioned in high-bandwidth memory stacking, where we hold a very, very high share. And that's — all of it is feeding our very strong growth in packaging in '26; and without question, hybrid bonding will see further adoption in both logic and memory — and again, Applied is in a really good spot through our partnership with BESI in hybrid bonding, but also across all of those adjacent steps, Applied holds very strong positions, and that will let us drive significant packaging growth as we go forward.
Joe Quatrochi
analystFrom what you just said, it sounds like you expect non-China ICAP to get stronger next year, and maybe China grows too. Is there any reason we shouldn't think your WFE outperformance could speed up in 2027 compared with '26?
Brice Hill
executiveWe do anticipate rest of world investments happening. When you look at customers around the world, that digestion we discussed over the last few years, along with all the added investment in China, appears to be finishing its cycle, so some rest of world customers are considering capacity increases and a higher level of investment. And then in China, we expect to see that as well. Let me just say, focusing in on China — for the customers we can serve, our addressable market in China, we believe we're gaining share in 2026, and we think that's thanks to mostly 28-nanometer type investments. So we feel good about execution in China, and we'll keep serving that market as we go forward.
Joe Quatrochi
analystAnd then perhaps to build on that, you've raised the advanced packaging growth rate once more. Could you help us get a clearer picture of how much of that comes from versus foundry logic? And after that, how should we think about it going into '27?
Brice Hill
executiveYes. So the — we've raised it every quarter, and that really is like the remainder of the equation, where we saw more projects and more capacity being requested as we moved through the year. From the advanced packaging market, a big portion of that in 2026 is packaging tied to HBM, and that is what sees tremendous growth in 2026.
Gary Dickerson
executiveYeah, I'd also say that HBM stays quite strong in 2027; and looking ahead, what our customers are concentrating on is new packaging architectures, they're aiming to make body sizes as large as possible, and Applied has put in investment to build the leading portfolio for those inflection points. So again, since I'm engaging with all these customers constantly, this is an extremely important focus for every one of them, because multichip connectivity matters a great deal for AI compute performance. So again, that portfolio we've built over the past several years, and that we've added to with some major innovations, plus the NEX acquisition, gives us a tailwind in '27 and going forward.
Michael Sullivan
executiveOperator; we have time for one more question, please.
Melissa Weathers
analystSorry if I missed this earlier, but when we consider growth in 2027 and how that year will take shape — is there any way we should be thinking about the first half compared with the second half? I'm not sure whether there are some significant clean room dynamics we ought to make sure are reflected in our models, or capacity that's coming online. Any color at all on first half versus second half dynamics next year?
Brice Hill
executiveMelissa, this is Brice. Good to hear your voice; we expect output to rise each quarter as the year progresses. So I believe that gives you a sense of the shape. I don't think there's much on the clean room dynamics side that isn't already known at this point.
Melissa Weathers
analystGot it. Moving on to the other business — I know it's pretty small, but as I remember from last quarter, you said something about resegmenting a portion of the panel business. Out of that. So broadly speaking on that other business, can you remind us how the trajectory looks? And I think there might be a gross margin headwind in there as well. So any modeling detail on the other business would be useful.
Brice Hill
executiveSure. On the subject of "other," which bundles the company's operating segments that we don't report separately, the biggest one is Display. Display turned in a solid Q4 '26, surpassing $500 million; we had committed to updating you if its performance shifted. So for that business, assume gross margins around 40% and operating margins in the 20s; and our guidance has been that, for the foreseeable future, you should model roughly $400 million per quarter in revenue for it. That's the current picture. So plug in $400 million for Q1 and for subsequent quarters, and we'll let you know when that changes. The other segment should land roughly at breakeven as the quarters go by. Whatever the display business earns gets put toward our remaining adjacencies — those areas Gary pointed to at our investor breakfast, where we're putting money in to expand.
Michael Sullivan
executiveYes. Thank you, Melissa, for asking that. And Brice, would you mind sharing your closing thoughts with us for today.
Brice Hill
executiveAbsolutely, Mike. The investments we've put in place are producing solid financial outcomes, and that includes record growth in quarterly revenue along with gross margin that keeps expanding. We're looking forward to having many of you join us here in Santa Clara during this quarter and at conferences, among them RBC in New York, UBS and Scottsdale, Wells Fargo and Dana Point, and Barclays in San Francisco. Mike, let's go ahead and wrap up the call.
Michael Sullivan
executiveOkay, thank you, Brice. I want to mention that by 5:00 Pacific Time today, a replay of this call will be up on the IR page of our website. And we truly appreciate your continued interest in Applied Materials.
Operator
operatorThank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking part in today's conference. That brings the program to a close. You're welcome to disconnect now, and have a good day.
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