Astarta Holding PLC (AST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for your interest in the call. We would like to start per usual, with our P&L overview. We compare our 9 months results on the same basis with last year. We are pleased to report that our top line revenues in most business segments were higher than last year. And that is also for agriculture, sugar production and slightly up for cattle farming. If we are talking about our profitability on the EBITDA basis, there is an expected hit to the agricultural cash flows. But solid performance in sugar production and soybean processing as well as cattle farming. We also present our profitability without the impact of IAS 41, where gross margin was at the same level as last year but the EBITDA, there was a contraction by 5 basis points -- percentage points. Going to the cash flows, we still focus on our operating cash flows and preserve cash flows in terms of our leverage and investment program concerned. Investing cash flows were EUR 17 million compared to EUR 12 million last year. We also have same solid position in terms of our leverage below 1x net debt to EBITDA, with financial bank debt down to EUR 24 million. If we are going to the segment results, the first one is agriculture. One can see that in terms of the overall selling volumes of grain and oil seeds in the 9 months this year. We managed to sell more than 300,000 tonnes of corn and wheat but there was a significant hit in terms of commodity prices, especially for wheat and also for the rapeseeds, where the average prices were down by almost 30% compared to the previous year. We continue harvesting our crops, and we are pleased to report wheat, rapeseeds and soybean yields on a per hectare basis are higher than last year. We are still in the progress on corn and sugar beet, which is done by 2/3 of expected harvesting process. And we already repeat our acreage for winter crops for next year. There is a slight increase in acreage under wheat for 40,000 hectares and rapeseeds at [ 12,000]. Overall in terms of the market fundamentals, there is an overall decline in commodity prices globally, but there is a significant differential between Ukrainian and international prices, adjusted for the cost of export logistics out of Ukraine. So this gap started widening again after Russia [ port ] from the grain deal. The key market remains EU accounting for more than half of the total Ukrainian produce exported to or via these markets. The grain deal was suspended again in July but we see roughly 4 million tonnes of export traffic by overland and the new ports. And recently, as you know, there was some traffic coming out over the support without the deal being in place, but there was an accident recently. Going on to sugar, the volumes and sales prices are doing well. If we're looking at the 9 months period. And this allowed us to register a slightly wider margin on a gross basis and EBITDA margin is on the same level as last year of 24%. We started our sugar processing season in mid-September. We already produced over 170,000 tonnes of white sugar, which is higher than last year. In Ukraine, because of expensive logistics for grains out of Ukraine, many farmers increased acreage under sugar beet. So we expect a higher output of sugar beet and white sugar this season. The Ukrainian government lifted its suspension of exports as soon as the new processing season started in mid-September. And EU is the main export destination for Ukrainian sugar. Sugar exports did not depend on overseas logistics, 90% is exported over land by trucks and by the railway. And the processing season has about 30 sugar mills in operation this year. So we expect a higher amount of production and exports. Soybean processing, if we are looking again at the 9 months period, the volumes are up, soybean meal prices slightly increased but there was a significant decline in soybean oil prices, which affected our overall results. Still EBITDA margin expansion, which started last year, continued and it is at the level of 24% as of 1st of October. Ukrainian farmers also increased acreage under soybeans in response to lower acreage under corn. We did the same. We expect to produce over 160,000 tonnes of soybeans during this season. But overall, the market in Ukraine is expected to harvest almost 1 million tonnes of soybeans, higher than last year. Cattle farming, nice growth in the milk production in both the size of the herd is growing but also the yield per unit head is growing. Milk prices were down by 10% but this was offset by the growth in sales volume. So we registered good expansion at the growth and EBITDA margin. Our strategy is updated on an annual basis. So the next major update will be with our annual results next year. But we just wanted to give you a heads up. We regularly update the investor community on our sustainability efforts, and we've been working on our decarbonization strategy with a big 4 firm for over a year, and we expect to announce our decarbonization strategy very shortly. So this is a very quick overview of our results for 9 months. We welcome your questions.

Okay. Okay. Mr. [ Manedas ], you have a question, you raise your hand.

Congrats on your results. Yes, I am new to the company. I was curious with the acreage that you dedicate to different crops, how much of flexibility do you have? If you don't get the grain deal going forward, do you think you will keep reducing the acreage for wheat?

Thank you for your question. We have much more flexibility for reducing acreage on the corn rather than wheat because technologically, wheat is the best predecessor for sugar beet. So our acreage on the wheat is directly related to the amount of sugar beet that we grow and then process into sugar. So there is flexibility on the corn. There is very little flexibility on wheat.

Got it. And 1 quick follow-up. In terms of how much revenue and operating costs are in hard currency on a consolidated basis? That would be helpful to know.

Sorry, can you repeat the question again?

Yes. How much of your revenue comes in hard currency? And how much of operating costs are in hard currency? Like in dollars or in euros.

In -- on the revenue side, I believe what we published was 46% on exports on the revenue side. On the cost side, it's a trickier question because, for example, some inputs such as fertilizers, they are produced in Ukraine, but if it is an hydrogen fertilizer, it is obviously related to the gas prices, and it is usually quoted in U.S. dollars. So the local prices for inputs are indirectly linked to U.S. dollars, except for land leases and for the labor. Most of other costs are indirectly linked to hard currency inputs.

What would be the percentage of those that are linked to hard currency, around like 60%, 70%?

I'm passing the floor to Viacheslav Chuk, who is our Commercial Director.

I think we can say that it is mainly balanced if answering your question because if we have somehow bigger proportion on the cost side through indirect FX related items. However, we also have in our crop rotation, rapeseeds and sunflower seeds, which if even we sell them in Ukraine, we sell them in connection to the foreign exchange rate. So I think that we are naturally hedged and balanced with the cost and revenue side on the ForEx exchange.

If it is possible, it would be great to receive questions in the Q&A box because we can hear it clearer. Yuri asked, what is the impact from recent blocking of the Polish border? I'll also start answering this question, but then pass the floor to Viacheslav for more color. The blocking of the Polish border concerns automotive traffic, while we transport our soybean oil, meal and also some sugar by rail. So if we are coming back to our presentation, where we provide volume breakdown of grain specifically. I'm just going to scroll back. If we had taken last year -- sorry, last month, September, truck volumes are actually quite small for the grain. The main route for grain exports is still the Danube ports and about 1 million tonnes per month by railway.

Yuri, thanks for your question. Getting back to the company, I think that very little impact could be on the company because as Yuliya mentioned, we delivered to Western Europe and to Poland, for example, we deliver our goods mainly by railway tanks and hoppers. And in case even of some trucks, it could be very minor part for the sugar but we have flexibility to change the crossing point on our destination.

Yakub, thank you. Do you already bought gas for current sugar campaign, what would be the gas price? Thank you for your question. We compared our gas prices in general for the market. Today and 1 year ago, 1 year ago, it was nearly $1,000 and today, it is just over $400. So it is actually half of what it was, if not lower. And we are already processing sugar beet. So the gas was purchased before as we are already in operation. [Audio Gap] I was on mute. Marcin -- Sorry, Marcin, there was an echo another microphone. How large were '22,'23 season end in sugar stocks in Ukraine? I'll ask Viacheslav to comment.

Thank you very much for the question. I would suggest that we can -- there could be some confusion between commercial stocks and stocks, which could be at each households, which are like on the mathematic calculation basis is made. However, we consider that commercial stocks of the sugar on the beginning of the season was around 150,000 tonnes. It is mainly what was stored by main players and intermediary companies on the market.

The next question is also for you which is, how much of wheat are you expecting to sell in the fourth quarter?

Our expectation is to sell up to 75% of our harvested crops in fourth quarter for the winter wheat.

Okay. Next question, what is the current guidance for CapEx for '23, '24? Marcin, we don't provide guidance for marketing year. But by year-end, we expect to be CapEx in line with $40 million number that we provided before. If we look at our 9 months actuals, this is not a pro rata for $40 million. But as we announced before the war, we wanted to go into a project in soybean processing, further processing into the soybean concentrate, and we actually working towards starting building on this project in the fourth quarter this year. The investment program itself takes place over 3 years. This year, fourth quarter -- beginning fourth quarter and then continuing into next year and 2025. So the CapEx guidance remains roughly the same at $40 million for the calendar year. On top of 9 months comment, could you please comment why third quarter results have been so weak, basically weaker in every segment quarter-on-quarter even considering reported volumes? Yes, Marcin, we were hit on 2 sides in the third quarter. The first one came from seaborne exports became much more difficult in the absence of a formalized grain deal, and that led to lower volumes of exports of grain. But also there was a significant decline in the prices for grain, specifically wheat and corn. There was a very abrupt decline in prices in the third quarter. On the soybean processing site, as I mentioned, there was a decline in soybean oil prices. If you look at the volumes of for soybean oil this year versus the previous year, the amount of soybean oil last year was twice higher. But that was not a normal volume of soybean oil. That was the amount accumulated since the beginning of the invasion last year. So this year, third quarter volumes of soybean oil sold were normalized, but the price was down by 1/3. And that also translated into a much weaker result in the soybean segment. I believe in the sugar segment and in the milk segment, the situation is actually stable in the third quarter, safe for normal -- well, the normal situation during the war. Do you expect the beet sugar costs would increase by 50%? Do you consider 15,000 [indiscernible] of sugar cost is feasible? And how much sugar do you feel is feasible to export from Ukraine in the coming season? On the cost side, given the decline in natural gas prices, we do not believe that the cost will increase by 50%. And the prices are still holding nicely both domestically in Ukraine and in Europe, which is the main export destination. What the Ukrainian sugar industry would like to see during the new marketing season is exports of around 0.5 million tonnes, and that remains the best hope for the sugar industry.

I will also add that logistically wise, it is possible to export around 70,000 or 100,000 tonnes of sugar per month from Ukraine. So depending on the markets, both global and EU markets, it is -- there is a possibility to do such export.

Thank you. How much CapEx you expect to spend on this new soybean project? What will you spend your free cash flows on? Any returns to shareholders? The project, which was announced in 2021 before the cost was estimated at around $50 million. But given the inflation in the last couple of years, this estimate was upgraded to around $60 million. But as I mentioned, the CapEx will be spread over 3 years, which is starting from the fourth quarter of this year possibly and then extending for the next 2-year period. What will you spend your free cash flows on? Well, this is 1 of our key projects where we would like to spend our free cash flows. We are also looking at other projects. One of the recent -- as I mentioned, we worked on our decarbonization strategy and we are thinking about increasing production of renewable energy. Our biogas facility is working at full capacity now. And last year, it was 20 million cubic meters of biogas. And now our next step would be to consider whether to convert excess by gas into green energy, electricity or biomethane. So we are considering all options, but alternative energy -- bioenergy, because we have plenty of feedstock, is one of the areas that we explore further. What dividend can shareholders count on for 2023? I would like to pass the floor to our CFO, Liliia Lymanska.

So it depends on how much we earn this year. So we will decide in the beginning of the next year.

Obviously, you've seen the company's track record on dividend payment. It was interrupted by the wartime conditions last year but we came back to the same level as before. And the dividend outlook will depend on the annual results. And I think everyone will appreciate that there is still big uncertainty regarding the last quarter of this year with everything, which is going on and the seaborne exports in particular. I hope we addressed all of your questions. You are also welcome to contact us directly. Yes. Yes. Yuri, thank you. Yes, currently, the biogas is only used for the company needs. Our biogas facility fits into a soybean crusher round the year and also feeds into sugar mill during the months of operations. As you know, sugar beet processing last about 2, 3 months a year. So outside this sugar processing season, it is supplied to the soybean crusher. But we do have capacity to increase production. And in such a case, we would like to either go into electricity and supply it into the grid or to processed by a gas into biomethane and also injected into the grid or even export it. Do you expect Black Sea export channel to be accessible after attack on commercial ship 2 days ago?

Marcin, thank you for your question. I think we hope for the Black Sea -- accessibility of the Black Sea. We thanks to all efforts, which is done by our military forces. And anyway, we use this opportunity to export. But to predict something is very -- this situation is unpredictable. However, we see that the moment and the mood of players, both shipowners, vessels owners, terminals and exporters, very high to continue export, and it still continues even after the accident, which was yesterday. Thank you.

We've just seen another chat and a couple of questions. One is from Daniel Marcus. What would be the maximum annual capacity of the soya crushing plant? And what could be the maximum possible acreage allocated to sugar beet for '24, '25? Regarding the first question, the soybean crusher plant capacity does not change. It is working at the maximum capacity of 230,000 plus tonnes of soybean crushed per year. When we plan to produce soy being concentrate, that means that the meal, soybean meal, which is currently the final product for the crusher, will become an intermediary product. So the value-added product concentrate capacity is 100,000 tonnes per year. The maximum possible acreage allocated to sugar beets for '24, '25 season. Obviously, the acreage will depend on our ability to sell and specifically, to sell in the EU market. As you probably know, sugar production in Europe is actually declining. The yields have peaked. Europe imports around 3 million tonnes of sugar from overseas, and we don't see any reason why exports from Ukraine would be put at disadvantage for imports from Brazil and Latin America. So from this point of view, if European market remains open to us, we would like to produce at the volumes we are producing this year for the European market. Next question. Huge finish goods increased year-on-year, problems with selling or saving for better prices? I'm passing the floor to our CFO.

This year of our gathering campaign started earlier. And you actually can see in our balance sheet that our biological assets less than previous year. And actually, it is one of the reasons why our inventories increased.

Next question from [ Raymon ]. Do you see opportunities in M&A transactions? Is there any M&A activity in Ukraine? Yes, we see M&A targets being put for sale, especially in terms of the farmland because smaller farmers have less power to sell and export their grain. However, this process takes time and land assets decline in value corresponding to lower export capacity is not at the bottom yet. So something that we see more in terms of activity since the closure of the formal grain deal. And we will probably see such activity even more of it towards the end of the year or towards spring planting season. How much wheat are you expecting to sell in fourth quarter? We already did.

Yes. I think this question was already answered. So if we need to...

The report shows increased CapEx, is this due to increase expenditure on development projects that were announced some time ago? Or are these ongoing expenditure to maintain the infrastructure? As of 9 months, this is the latter part ongoing expenditure to maintain the infrastructure. But when we upgrade our infrastructure, we are switching to new technology. For example, when we replace our agricultural machinery, we replace it with equipment, which is doing reduced tillage as opposed to conventional tillage. One of our projects within maintenance CapEx this year is a replacement of boilers at 1 of our sugar mill from burning fossil fuels to burning plant-based pellets, which is a renewable fuel. So these are smaller projects but it is not just replacing but switching to more modern technological processes. The SPC projects that we mentioned, most likely, this CapEx will appear in the fourth quarter of this year or later at the beginning of next year. Do you see potential for acquisition? Are there any interesting offers from a financial and investment point of view, significant increase in logistic capacity -- capabilities through the acquisition of [indiscernible] seaport or rather continuation of projects and organic growth? We really focus on developing our production base and by doing it better. So we believe that we have quite optimized land bank, and we are now focusing on switching to regenerative agriculture in our primary agricultural production processes. And in the areas which we believe we are really good at, such as soybean crush and we are looking at projects to produce more added value products such as soybean concentrate. So M&A opportunities do come. We look at them opportunistically. But so far, we haven't seen returns or paybacks from M&A opportunities better than on our greenfield projects. Do you intend to export more sugar after the government restriction lifted? If so, will it be mainly truck transport? Yes. The government restriction was in place only until mid-September because the government wanted to see the final acreage and sugar beet in the ground to have certainty of production processes. And now we have about 30 sugar mills operating in Ukraine. We increased acreage, and we plan to produce about 30% more stronger than last year. And the government understands that production of sugar in Ukraine will be much higher than internal consumption. So they lifted the restrictions. And currently, we are exporting to the EU. And the total industry, as I mentioned, the baseline scenario is for the industry to export 0.5 million tonnes but the potential there is for 1 million tonnes as a blue-sky potential depending on the acceptance of such volumes in EU and other markets. Truck transport, it is both trucks and railway actually. I hope we answered all your questions, and you're always welcome to e-mail them separately or arrange for a one-on-one call. Thank you so much to everyone. Thank you for your interest, and have a nice afternoon.