Azimut Holding S.p.A. (AZM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Azimut Holding's First Half 2025 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Giorgio Medda, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking the time and joining us today for Azimut H1 2025 results presentation. I'm Giorgio Medda, CEO of the group, and I'm pleased to be here with Alessandro Zambotti, our CEO and Group CFO; and Alex Soppera, our Head of Investor Relations. General comment before we dive into the slides. This has been a defining semester for Azimut. We have exceeded expectations across the board and I have to say, navigated very volatile market conditions, and this has been possible only courtesy of our resilience and discipline. At the same time, we have laid the groundwork for the group next phase of growth. And I think what we have seen in the last 6 months bodes very well for what lies ahead for us. So let's move to Slide 3, please. So let me begin with the key highlights of the first 6 months of 2025, which marked a very strong start to the year from a strategic, financial and operational perspective. We delivered a record EUR 8.2 billion in managed net inflows, the highest first half figure we have ever achieved. Alongside this, our recurring net income has grown by 18% year-on-year, and that is a testament to the resilience and scalability of our platform even in very challenging market and macro conditions. But our progress goes far beyond financials. During the semester, we successfully introduced a new organizational metrics that has allowed for greater transparency, improved accountability and a streamlined reporting structure as we will discuss in detail later in the presentation. We also made tangible progress on simplifying our business verticals, particularly in the U.S. with the transaction of North Square Investments that we have announced last week, RoundShield that we announced just yesterday. Throughout this period, we have remained focused on executing several strategic business development initiatives, such as the key strategic partnership with Eni Next to promote Italian excellence globally, particularly in the energy sector. And we have forged several distribution agreements with leading financial institutions throughout our global hubs, or the release of our exciting digital strategy. Lastly, but not -- very important for our progress, we have moved forward on the TNB transaction since our key announcements at the beginning of May, and this remains a strategic priority for the group and obviously will be discussed in more detail later by Alessandro. And finally, given the strong underlying performance in the first half, our confidence in our product pipeline for the second half and obviously, our execution capabilities, we have upgraded our target for both net profit and net inflows. So moving to the next slide. And before we dive into the strategic and operational updates, let me take a moment to highlight our group's strong financial performance in the first half of '25, which clearly reflects how we are firing on all cylinders across all metrics. As of the end of June, total assets reached EUR 113 billion, up 11.1% year-to-date. Net inflows for the period were EUR 9 billion, of which 43% came from our international operations, and that is a clear demonstration of our global scale and distribution capabilities, and despite FX headwinds as we will elaborate later on. Total revenues stood at EUR 646 million, with recurring revenues growing by 7.1% year-on-year, and that has been supported by our strong fee-based model and growth across all core markets with particularly strong contribution from Italy, Turkey, Brazil, Singapore and the U.S. As far as operating profit is concerned, EBIT came at EUR 291 million, with recurring EBIT increasing by 8.6% versus the first half of last year, driven by higher revenues and an overall disciplined approach to cost management. Importantly, 18% of net profits were generated outside Italy, and that is a very meaningful step from the 15% in the same period last year. And that, if you want, further confirms our international expansion strategy is now bearing fruit. These figures put us in a very strong position to continue executing our long-term growth agenda at the same time, creating value for shareholders. Now moving on the two following slides, we show you what was the recently introduced visual representation of what is driving our profitability in a more intuitive and transparent way. So as we focus on a quarter-on-quarter view, Q2 showed a very balanced picture with broad-based growth across recurring revenues, selective performance fee contribution and disciplined cost management. And that, as I said earlier, confirms the resilience of our diversified platform. Instead, as we look at the year-on-year bridge for net profit, as we show in Slide 6. We set out to highlight two things. In the first half of this year, we delivered a reported net profit of EUR 240 million, compared to EUR 321 million in the same period of last year. And that needs to be explained. Obviously, this comparison is significantly affected by nonrecurring items, most notably the capital gain from the sale of our stake in Kennedy Lewis. And as such, it's important that throughout this call and for the broader analysis in general, we will focus solely on recurring growth, which posted a strong 18% year-on-year performance as a result of our continued expansion across the globe. Moving to the next slide. You will see how our total assets have evolved since the start of the year under the new reporting method. I won't go too much into the details here as we have already published and commented these figures in our press release, but let me highlight a few things, essentially the strong demand for mutual fund solutions since the start of the year, supported by our networks and partners in Italy and Turkey, and the very sustained momentum in our wealth management operations in Dubai, Monaco and Singapore, as well as what is a very strong momentum across our institutional franchise. As of the end of June, our total assets have reached EUR 113 billion, up nearly 5% since the beginning of the year despite significant FX headwinds. So this is something that we need to mention. Obviously, we have all commented about the depreciation of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, the steepest decline since 1973, a 14% depreciation, coupled also with some local currencies performance such as for the Turkish lira, minus 27% year-to-date. And that has obviously impacted the value of our assets at the end of the year. And when you look at our business, obviously, we lost EUR 5.5 billion on the total assets in euro terms. Nonetheless, the message that we want to send across is very clear. Despite material FX pressure, we have still grown by 5% year-to-date, and that is thanks to the strength of our net inflows performance. And what is even more remarkable to highlight is that this growth has been driven almost entirely by organic flows, which have amounted to EUR 6.3 billion in the first half alone. Just to put that in perspective, that is approximately 68% of what we had achieved organically in all of 2024. And this is the first half inflow result for the Azimut history in terms of performance, the strongest inflow results in our history. So these results confirm the resilience of our core business and certainly the fact that our diversified model is delivering growth across all channels, geographies and client segments. Turning now on to Page 8. As you might recall, what you see here is the blueprint of how we intend to represent the group going forward. This is an organizational matrix that mirrors how we actually run the business. And on this slide, we present the total assets as of the end of June, structured by product lines across the top from investment funds to digital asset management, and by key distribution channels along the left. As we already said during our Q1 earnings call, this is more than a new reporting layout. This is a very transparent and aligned view of how our platform creates value. And as promised on the next slide, we are giving greater clarity to the financial community on growth, scale and profitability across our core pillars. As you can see in Slide 9, increased transparency into the earnings potential of our platform is realized by showing you the economics behind our different distribution cohorts. Let me walk you through a few key highlights here. Integrated solutions, that is our core vertical, which includes Italy, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey continues to be our powerhouse and command superior margins that are driven by the vertically integrated business model and market-leading positions that we have in these geographies. Global wealth that comprises our hubs in Monaco, Dubai, Singapore, Switzerland and the U.S. is becoming an increasingly important growth engine. These are very high potential markets. While margins are slightly below last year due essentially to business mix and the impact of FX across different geographies, we are building the foundations for long-term value with our unique proposition, scalable operations and what is very sophisticated client demand. Then we have institutional and wholesale that is gaining traction. This segment brings together our institutional initiatives across Latin America, Asia, Italy and EMEA. And while its margin is aligned with the industry average, the strategic importance of this business is rising. And this is a source of innovation, distribution diversity, a partnership such as the contribution from Nova. And taking a step back, what is important is the overall picture. We are building a multi-engine platform where each business line has clear accountability, strategic intent and a pathway to scalable profitability. And all of this, while maintaining and improving a very healthy group level recurring net profit margin of 43 basis points. In short, our platform is now more transparent, more balanced and certainly better positioned than ever to capture global opportunities. On the following slide, Slide 10, you see what is a simplified overview of our H1 '25 performance versus the same period last year, applying our new reporting structure that we had already introduced with our Q1 results. With these two new representations, we strongly believe that it should be easier for investors and analysts alike to understand the key business drivers of our business and how we are creating value every day. I won't go into the details too much as these numbers and a few notes speak for themselves. But what I want to emphasize here is the following. The overall picture is one of a truly global platform where each region is progressing along its growth path, supported by strong governance, scalable systems and local leadership. We don't want to longer be just an Italian asset manager with international ambitions, we are a global group with local excellence and financial architecture to compete and win across all markets. So let's now move on to our exciting corporate business development. I want to start with Slide 11, the partnership with NSI that we announced mid last week. This partnership marks a very pivotal moment in our U.S. strategy, where we are building a highly integrated scalable B2B2C platform, rather than a traditional B2C model, which we believe is the best suited to the dynamics of the U.S. market. NSI is an exceptional fit for our group like Azimut, it operates as an integrated asset management distribution firm and [ carries ] an outstanding reach and execution capability set. Its unique positioning enables NSI to capture what is the ongoing structural growth of all U.S. and wealth assets -- and wealth asset management industry, managing a broader range of products and penetrating even deeper into its distribution networks. More importantly, in Slide 12, we want to show what is the strategic ambition and the strength of our positioning in the U.S. and how this is turning into a very critical pillar of our global strategy. Our U.S. platform has reached now a pro forma total of $50 billion in assets, and positions us among the few international players with a fully integrated asset management distribution model across the country. Certainly, this is the result of a long-term vision and disciplined execution, but is also the result of work done over the years where we have built a piece by piece diversified, synergistic and scalable architecture. On the asset management side, we operate across both public and private markets. While on the distribution side, we have created a powerful multichannel approach. Our RIAs Service platform led by Sanctuary Wealth is today one of the most respected in the U.S. and continues to grow at an incredible pace. And also, I want to mention our direct presence in the RIA space with Azimut Apice and Azimut Genesis to advisory-led businesses that speak to our heritage of long-term alignment with clients. We believe that this integrated approach allows us to cover the entire value chain from investment strategy and product manufacturing, to advisory services and direct client engagement. The U.S. obviously has an immense potential. It's also a very complex market, and we believe that scale will come over time, but we also believe we are uniquely positioned to compete not as a niche operator, but a credible long-term player in one of the world's most dynamic market. So in short, we are just getting started in the U.S., but the foundations that we have built are strong and the opportunity ahead is very significant. Another exciting news, fresh of the press from yesterday is where we announced that Azimut sold its stake in RoundShield Partners to Harrison Street. With the sale of our stake in RoundShield, Azimut completes what is the second GP stake exit in just 16 months, confirming our ability to generate real liquidity and value from the lower middle market segment. After exiting Kennedy Lewis to Goldman Sachs in 2024, this latest deal that is a strategic sales to Harrison Street shows we can monetize our GP stakes across different buyer profiles, and this is just in a few years. Together, the two exits have delivered a DPI of 2.9x, and IRR of 60%, placing Azimut among the top-performing players in this space. Azimut remains fully committed to the GP stake strategy, an area that has been a focus for our business since 2019 through our experienced New York-based team, and we remain strongly committed to our major partners, HighPost and Broadlight, both of which operate with a high growth potential and a clear focus on attractive long-term secular industries. Also, let me touch briefly upon on Slide 14 on the very exciting partnership that we have recently announced with Eni, one of the largest energy companies globally. The partnership with Eni has a very clear target, raising EUR 100 million, starting in September, to be deployed in the cleantech and energy transition industries. This is a partnership that sees Azimut is an Italian excellence in the world to invest in the most exciting and promising investments in key sectors and industries for the global economies. This is also a testament to the ability of Azimut of signing partnerships with Italian players who have a very strong reputation in the world markets where they operate. I want to mention here our partnership with Ferrari that has resulted starting in 2023 with the launch of Automobile Heritage Enhancement fund that is the world's first and only evergreen investment fund for historic super and hypercars, a fund that has raised commitments to date of almost EUR 200 million, and delivered a performance to investors to date of approximately 18%. So our growth journey as a global investment partner continues partnering with the country's leading innovators in their respective sectors. And the last point I'd like to mention is the publication of our digital strategy white paper that I'm assuming most of you have received via e-mail at the beginning of this week. This is a 80-page report where Azimut is elaborating and discussing, and providing an outlook on how digital developments are essential to redefine the engagement with clients and to draw the lines of our business in the years to come. It's also an opportunity to see what Azimut has been building over the last few years in the digital space, certainly with focus on AI, blockchain and the development of cloud services, or tools working even on the Metaverse. And I would like to mention here in Slide 16, something that is not very known to the public apart from the clients who have decided to entrust us through digital channels. I would like to mention here, as I mentioned, digital solutions that are already live in the market. These are real apps that I've seen over the last 3 years, gathering more than 50,000 clients that have been empowered by Azimut's platforms around the globe to access asset management investment solution as well as a broader scope of financial services. I would pause here for a second, and I will hand over to Alessandro for a detailed review of our H1 results.

So thank you, Giorgio. Good afternoon to everyone. So moving to Slide 17. Let me now walk you through the key financial developments for the first half of 2025. So starting with revenues, we recorded an overall increase of approximately EUR 9 million compared to the first half of last year. I mean this growth was primarily driven by a 7%, or EUR 36 million increase in recurring fees. So a solid performance that reflects the continued expansion of our assets under management and administration despite volatile market -- that we see in the market during the first half of the year. So in particular, we note that our Luxembourg [indiscernible], so the open-ended funds and the private market funds contributed EUR 8.6 million, and EUR 6.3 million more compared -- so a reflection again of our continuous platform build-out and nice product offering. So the level of the discretionary portfolio management and the advisory fee increased by EUR 3 million compared to last year, and as well the international operations added EUR 18 million to the top line. Here, the U.S. stands out with EUR 8.54 million from Kennedy Capital, and as well EUR 0.7 million from HighPost following the perimeter changes that characterized the first half of the year. But as well also behind on that, Brazil, Singapore and Turkey, which all recorded positive organic growth. Quarter-over-quarter, revenues were up by EUR 1 million, a balanced result considering the FX impact and also the perimeter changes in the U.S., and softer market condition in Q2. That shows again how resilient our revenues base is even in uncertain condition. So the level of the variable fees contributed less in the half year period, EUR 6 million less compared to the previous period. Despite this, Brazil, Turkey and Monaco made a solid contribution during the semester, more than offsetting the negative impact of the fulcrum fees. Then looking to the insurance revenue, the headline decline of EUR 23 million year-on-year, and this is entirely due to the lower performance fee. On the positive side, we can see that there is a positive recurring insurance revenue that increased by over EUR 5 million, and this is reflecting again the asset growth and the product mix. And furthermore, with current market condition and looking to our performance achieved during July for our clients, we see a robust 3Q '25 outlook for performance fees in this segment. And then to conclude the revenue section, the other revenue remained broadly flat year-on-year. So to sum up, again, our revenue performance in the first half shows the power of our diversified global platform and our ability to grow even more in a challenging environment. So then on the following page, we show the evolution of cost. Overall, we note an increase of around EUR 20 million, plus 6%. Starting with distribution costs, we recorded an increase of about EUR 18 million. This variation was mainly driven by higher distribution expenses in line with the growth in recurring revenue, both in Italy and across our international business. We see an increase in provision for variable incentives to the Italian financial adviser, and additional costs related to the TNB project. Personnel costs increased by approximately EUR 3 million, and this reflects the continued cost discipline and a stable evolution of our Italian operation and as well the ongoing investment to support the international expansion, including the perimeter effect from the integration of Kennedy Capital was netted by a positive foreign exchange impact. Finally, depreciation and amortization, together with provision remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous year. And it is worth noting that Q2 2025 benefit from the release of a provision related to a legal case, which has offset part of the normal increase of the cost during the quarter. Moving then to the next slide, we conclude the income statement analysis with recurring EBIT and recurring net profit, which increased by 9%, or EUR 22 million -- and 18%, so EUR 36 million. This trend highlights again the strong of the -- the robustness of the business, not only in terms of recurring impact, but also through contribution below the EBIT. And we have EUR 21 million from asset and portfolio performance, including the revaluation in accounting element through the revaluation of the majority stake in HighPost and Kennedy Capital, EUR 12 million from fair value option and equity participation that includes also Sanctuary and Australia, EUR 6 million from dividends from GP stakes and affiliates, EUR 6 million from the net interest earned and then a negative impact of EUR 2 million from the IFRS 17. So now let me turn to the net financial position on Slide 20. At the end of June '25, our balance sheet remains strong and debt-free, even after significant investments and shareholder distribution made during the period. We closed the first half with cash and cash equivalents of EUR 643 million, compared to almost EUR 1 billion in -- as at the end of March, and EUR 750 million at the end of the year 2024. The variation reflects the seasonability of our cash flow and deployment of capital across strategic areas. So overall, we have a net financial position of approximately EUR 642 million with a negative variation of around EUR 110 million compared to December '24. This change is due to the positive pretax result contribution of EUR 329 million, but we need also to consider the deployment resources across the four key areas. So first of all, we received EUR 68 million in proceeds from the partial disinvestment of our stake in AZ NGA. We invested EUR 50 million primarily into M&A and platform development, including the expansion of Kenny Capital, HighPost across U.S., but also Italy and Brazil. Third, we paid out EUR 170 million for tax advances, stamp duties and contribution to the actuarial reserves. And then lastly, we returned a total of EUR 354 million to shareholders. And this EUR 323 million through the ordinary dividends and payments on participating financial instruments, and EUR 31 million for share buyback, repurchasing 1.4 million shares at an average price of EUR 23. To conclude, our balance sheet remains well capitalized and positioned to support continued growth and shareholder return. Finally, on Slide 21, a quick update on the TNB project. We are simply confirming that we are actively working with Bank of Italy on the contractual documentation, the future structure of TNB, with the goal of moving quickly into the final and more detailed phase. So now in this phase, we are dealing with the prefiling with Bank of Italy. And we remain obviously focused and the expectation is completing the transaction at the end of the year. To conclude, we would like also to remark again the expected outcome of the disposal, so around EUR 1.2 billion potential total consideration for the disposal of an 80% stake, to FSI and the co-investors, EUR 2.4 billion revenue guarantee in the net commissions over time with a minimum of 12 years, and then almost 20% retained stake in TNB's offering potential for the value upside for us. And with this, I hand over to Giorgio for the final part of the presentation.

Thank you, Alessandro. So to conclude this presentation, let me turn to our upgraded targets. So we look into the second half of the year with very strong confidence. Our pipeline includes 15 new product launches across public markets, private markets, insurance and club deal. And in parallel, we also are rolling our AI-powered financial planning tools designed to enhance the effectiveness of our financial advisers and deliver personalized solutions at scale for our clients. From these initiatives, and our commercial partnerships, as well as wealth management solutions, we expect to generate an additional EUR 4 billion to EUR 7 billion in organic inflows. And in parallel, we anticipate EUR 14 billion from M&A, driven primarily by the upcoming closing of the NSI transaction expected by year-end, and the Morocco deal that has been completed in the last few days. So with record inflows already achieved and clear visibility on the remainder of the year, we are upgrading our 2025 net inflows guidance to between EUR 28 billion and EUR 31 billion. And let me tell you that this is nearly 3x our original target and reflects the strength and scalability of our global platform. So turning to the last slide. Following the strong results of the first half, we're also revising our 2025 net profit target to above EUR 1 billion. The previous guidance was for approximately EUR 1 billion. So with EUR 250 million already delivered in the first 6 months, we have reached 60% of the original lower end guidance that we provided at the beginning of the year, giving us clear momentum going into the second half. But more importantly, I believe this performance should lead the market to reassess expectations about Azimut's recurring net profit, not only for 2025, but also for the years ahead. Our operating model is proving to be more scalable, more diversified, certainly more resilient than ever. As such, 2025 net profit is projected to exceed EUR 1 billion. And let me remind you that, that is dependent on TNB receiving authorization to operate in 2025. That is the base case and obviously being subject to the final accounting treatment of the transaction upon closing. So looking ahead, the next appointment is for the beginning of November, November 6, to be precise, when we will present our new strategic targets and update our shareholder remuneration policy. And at the same time, we will also release our 9-month results. So all in all, this will mark the beginning of the next phase in Azimut's value creation journey, and I can only encourage you to stay tuned. And with this, we are opening the floor for questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank.

I have two questions and one clarification. The clarification is in Slide #19. If Alessandro can share with us what was the -- out of the EUR 43 million of financial income -- finance income that you reported in the first half, what was the impact in the second quarter? And in particular, if you can clarify what is the EUR 21 million that you booked from assets and portfolio performance and how much of this is in the second quarter? The other two questions are more of a strategic flavor. I was wondering what is your appetite now for bolt-on acquisition and the pipeline that you have of acquisition like the one that you have made on NSI, you have invested EUR 100 million. It seems to me that it's a very, very smart move to consolidate your presence in the States, combining and other assets that you have. So what shall we expect from here? Do you still see other deals like this one? And clearly, I'm asking you this in the context of the upcoming presentation of the new distribution strategy in November, so we can have an idea how much focus is on bolt-on acquisition, GPI stakes and potential improvement in the distribution strategy? And the final question is on the TNB transaction. I don't know whether you can comment on this, but Bloomberg a couple of weeks ago reported that the mainstream IT player in Italy would have shown an interest to buy an up to 5% stake in TNB to play the role of technological partner. Can you confirm this news? Is there something that is a reliable report or not?

So let me start with the details of the EUR 28.9 million of finance income that we booked in the quarter, in particular. So I was sharing with you the accounting effect, I would say, driven by the consolidation of the HighPost acquisition and Kennedy Capital. So both of them contributed almost EUR 6 million in the quarter and in particular, through the consolidation of HighPost. So that is the main one that is, let me say, contributing to the variation. And then in general, the valuation fair value portfolio, that means the liquidity that we manage around our operation in Italy and also internationally. So again, there is a positive contribution in fair value from Turkey, from Ireland and as well from Azimut Holding, I would say, so the level of the holding. On top of that, we have also the positive contribution of the interest rate coming from the pure liquidity that we have on the current accounts.

Okay. So I'll pick up the other two questions, Giovanni. So the first one is regarding our appetite for nonorganic growth. Obviously, Azimut will be continuously looking to grow. Certainly, as opposed to the previous 5 years, now we have achieved what is a pretty remarkable footprint across 20 different markets. As you have seen more recently, when we announced our expansion to Saudi Arabia, that was essentially a greenfield initiative. It took us 2 years to complete, but we didn't have really to invest money apart from obviously engaging with authorities and lawyers, I mean the typical administrative work that you do in this situation. So certainly, we look to consolidate what we have built so far. And I think we have a scale that will allow us to deliver organic earnings growth out of what we have today. Never say never, but if there are acquisitions certainly will be more of the bolt-on nature that you mentioned. What we have done with NSI, it goes exactly to this direction, something that makes our U.S. platform stronger, more effective, certainly an enabler of growth, but complementing what we have done over the last few years. Obviously, it's a very major transaction in financial terms. And as we are today, we do not see anything of the same scale happening in the short or the medium term. When we will update on our targets at the beginning of November, we will certainly provide a view of where we see potential areas of development for the firm, and we might provide you guidance on what is our commitment on that respect. As far as the press articles that you mentioned, we can only talk about the things that we know. And the only thing that we know is that we negotiated the TNB transaction with one party only, and that was FSI. So obviously, we don't know and we are not aware of anything else happening around it. And the binding terms were signed by FSI, and we stand by what we know, as I said.

The next question is from Gian Luca Ferrari of Mediobanca.

Three for me, please. The first one is on the EUR 5.2 billion inflows -- EUR 5.1 billion, sorry, reported in Italy year-to-date. I was wondering if you can break it down between organic growth, recruitment and potentially Nova. How much Nova contributed in the EUR 5.1 billion? And again, on Nova. Can you give us a sense on what could be the contribution for full year 2025? And potentially, what kind of dilution should we put in our models considering the 50 basis points guidance on those flows? The second question is on the new net income guidance, the above EUR 1 billion. If I recall correctly, you originally said you were including what was your assumption of the earn-out to be cashed in. So my question here is how much of the EUR 1.2 billion is included in this new guidance? And the third and final one is on personnel and G&A. It was a very, very low number, what you reported in Q2. So considering this EUR 122 million of personnel and G&A in the first half, how much we can consider this number in the first semester sustainable for the full year?

Gian Luca, I will pick up your first question, and then I will leave Alessandro to respond to the other two. As far as our Italian business, most of our growth is organic. So I have to say this has been very much a business generated by our current footprint. I think you all understand, understand the curiosity around the contribution of Nova, but you will understand that it's very hard for us to provide visibility on client contribution to a business. We will never do that for any client. I think Nova is a private factory that has been set up within a partnership with UniCredit. And I think UniCredit might be happy and able to give you an answer to this question. But let me tell you that in general, this is a business that just started up. There is essentially a very negligible contribution to our earnings. So to talk about dilution in terms of margins, I think probably will be almost a meaningless conversation considering the early stage of the partnership. I think in the past, we guided for Nova business to generate between 40 and 50 basis points net income on AUM. And we see this still as a very solid guidance for the years to come.

So for the -- I mean, referring to the net profit guidance, I mean, we slightly increased, let me say, we go for the EUR 1 billion reference, mainly driven by not really to the fact that we changed, let's say, the effect of the consideration of the TNB impact, but it's more of the current business that we are running that is demonstrating very clear and positive results. Therefore, we end up with a positive view that we have through the end of the year. And then...

Can we know how much is the TNB included in that guidance?

In this guidance, I mean, we are running around EUR 600 million impact on the TNB. So back to the cost. So back to the personnel and SG&A, as that was explained for the Q2 evolution. We -- as I clearly mentioned the fact that despite the increase of the perimeter, so we were expecting anyway an increase in terms of cost, we were benefiting of FX positive impact. Therefore, going forward, we expect anyway an increase of the cost going forward, so in Q3 and Q4, but let's say, keeping a normal level of evolution through the -- also what we are doing in the business in general. So the guidance that we also presented at the beginning of the year, I think that we can keep it as a reference for the moment.

The next question is from Alberto Villa of Intermonte SIM.

A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on the Americas region. Now you reached a new setup, thanks to also this last announcement on North Square, so EUR 50 billion of total assets, which also include Sanctuary. I was wondering if you can give us an idea what is the earnings capacity potential of this new setup you have, compared to what you show in Slide 12. So the -- based on EUR 13 billion of assets. And also, if you can give us more color on what could be in the future, the contribution of North Square to the results of this region? That would be helpful also to model for the future the contribution. Second question is on, again, on the net inflows guidance, EUR 4 billion to EUR 7 billion, excluding M&A. Is that fair to assume that the contribution will continue mostly to come from what we have seen already in the first half in your expectations? So again, organic contribution in Italy, Nova partnership and -- or there is something that we should bear in mind about what you expect to be the contributor to net inflows going into the next months? I think these are basically my questions.

Alberto. I'll try to answer both questions. So regarding the Americas, obviously, again, here, at the beginning of November, we will certainly be providing more visibility on what our ambitions are there. But if you were to model this in the short term, I think you should expect growth for the assets of NSI in the region of 10% per annum, that is something, I think, realistic for the next 3 to 5 years with an average profitability in terms of net income on AUM of approximately 25 basis points. That is actually in line with what we have right now. So I think we should not expect anything diluting our overall business. As I said, that is an engine of growth and a very major enabler to address a very wide audience in the U.S. comprising of RIAs, wirehouses, broker-dealers, I mean, investment consultants. So it's a pretty major deal when it comes to having what is a top access to different distribution channels. And as far as our expectations for net inflows, the EUR 4 billion to EUR 7 billion, I think the math here are very simple. At the bottom end of this range, we would expect business to continue show growth. We have to be mindful that we have August and September ahead of us that traditionally are low contributors to the overall production in our business. But we continue working. There is one obsession that everyone has in Azimut that is growing the business every day. So there is no vacation or summer holiday that will impact our commitment, our determination. I have to say that as we are a global entity today, it's the summer on this part of the world, is winter somewhere else. So people keep working every day. And I think the range reflects at the bottom, a realistic yet conservative assumption for the next few weeks -- few months, sorry, at the top end, a continuation of what we have seen year-to-date.

Okay. Maybe you can update us on the trends on July net inflows as well, or it's too early?

Well, obviously, we will release July inflows in the next few days, but you should not expect anything that is too far from what you have seen over the last couple of months.

The next question is from Elena Perini of Intesa Sanpaolo.

I have only one left, which is about the resiliency of your management fees, which was, for me, a positive surprise. Considering that the second quarter started quite in a difficult way due to Liberation Day and so on. Then what are your expectations for the second part of the year to have a steady growth? What could be the challenges for this very important line of your P&L?

Elena, so I'll pick up your second question, and maybe I'll ask Alessandro for the first. Actually, I didn't really catch exactly what you were asking. Maybe Alessandro got it better than me. So as we -- as you mentioned, Liberation Day was obviously a market event that disrupted certainly performance and created very volatile market conditions. I think when I look across the board, the performance that we have generated across all the product segments has been remarkable. I think this is down to diversification at the end of the day. And we have been able, particularly when you look at the Italian market to initially sort of decouple from the overall performance of the industry as you know, is very much geared into fixed income, low-risk solutions. We are more of an equity house when it comes to Italy. But after the initial blip, we have then caught back -- and caught up and closed the sort of performance gap that we had accumulated over the first few weeks of April. As we look at the rest of the year, we remain positive. The house view is constructive. Obviously, we have 220 portfolio managers. It's not that all of them think the same. But in general, when we look at our investment committees, we are advising clients, adding risk to portfolios, but markets are open and every day, and we can change our views if circumstances require. So -- but let me tell you something that Alessandro briefly mentioned, that is for your models and earnings outlook for Q3, because of negative performance around Liberation Day and our ability to catch up with markets delivering positive performance versus market. Obviously, we have now a very strong outlook for performance fees for Q3. And I think that will show for our 9-month results. Certainly, that is the case for what we see at the end of July, with touching wood, that will continue being the case also for August and September.

So referring to the Q2 recurring fees, probably the real explanation goes through the fact that we are consolidating Kennedy Capital that we were consolidating in the first quarter just for 1 month. Therefore, here, we have a full quarter of the contribution coming from Kennedy Capital on one side. And probably also, we were able, as we were mentioning before, also to recover the underperformance on the market quickly on one side and as well, thanks to our exposure on private markets, for sure, we kept, let's say, the level of the management fees protected from the volatility of the market. So the combination of those elements gave us this positive and incredible results for the quarter.

The next question is from Hubert Lam of Bank of America.

I've got three. Firstly, on Slide 20, where you talked about your net financial position, you mentioned EUR 117 million payment for taxes and others, including actuarial reserves. Can you just -- is it possible to kind of give us some more clarity in terms of the breakdown in terms of these costs within this number? It seems like a pretty significant sum here. Second is also on the slide. You mentioned EUR 618 million of net financial position at the end of June with EUR 640 million of cash. Just checking how much of that cash can be used for deployment in terms of like capital return? Is it entirely fungible, is the question. And lastly, if you can give us an update on the number of financial advisers you have in Italy? And then just what have the trends recently been in terms of financial adviser headcount?

Okay. Hubert, I'll pick up your second question regarding cash in our balance sheet. In the past, we guided in terms of cash available overnight, so that we can really take out from our bank accounts with no impact on the business in the region of 60%, the overall amount. Obviously, the rest will be for working capital, regulatory requirements and cash that you need to run the business as you should. So 60-40, that will be the sort of split.

The level of the taxes, I mean, it's difficult to decline every single contribution in terms of tax. I mean, we are in an environment where we are present in 20 countries, therefore, with different rules, with different mechanism. There are situation where you also have to anticipate the further tax that you, let's say, see in the future. Therefore, it's a split of different amount that we have obviously paid during the first half.

And at the level of the number of financial advisers today, we have 1,779 financial advisers in Italy.

So according to -- I think my numbers is -- that number has been trending down over the last 6 months? I just wondering the trends there.

Yes, yes, you're right. It might be trending down, but assets are growing. So I think the guys who are left are doing a better job than those who have gone. So I think we are pretty okay with that. Also, Hubert, you should also take into account that there is -- these are not people leaving to the competition. There is also an aging factor in our financial advisers base. That is the case for even our competitors. Sometimes that is a very normal occurrence. Advisers leave the company, but they leave the portfolio with other advisers who are part of Azimut. So sort of transition and transfer the portfolio to former colleagues.

The next question is from Luigi De Bellis of Equita.

Two questions left for me. The first one, if you can provide some guidance on the evolution for the coming quarters in terms of insurance revenues and distribution costs? And also what you are assuming in the guidance in the low end of the guidance in terms of performance fees? The second question, thank you for the additional colors on the business line, very helpful. Referring to the Slide #9 and 10, how do you see the profitability to move forward in the different business line? Which are the main business engines that will drive growth going forward in your view?

Luigi, so I will take the second and I leave Alessandro with the first. So when you look at our breakdown, our view in general is that we are able to maintain these margins. If you were to ask me whether growth will be diluting with the current level? It might happen, but we will be adding assets and business to a pretty consolidated base. And as such, dilution shouldn't really be too apparent. Certainly, we work always taking pride of our ability to provide integrated solutions to our clients. And that is in itself the very reason why we are able to maintain and sustain margins that we see at the end of the day in line with the industry. And very often, when people look at our business, there is sort of misunderstanding where people look at the top line and they try to draw conclusions regarding potential pressure on our fees. But when you look at the bottom line, I think we do a pretty decent job, and we're obviously operating as a lean organization, but we see these levels as very sustainable and the fact that we are integrated makes our business to be much stickier. Obviously, nothing will be possible without performance. And at the end of the day, this is what clients look at the end, whether we are making money for them. I mean, if that is the case, they're very happy to pay a fee.

So in relation to the insurance revenue and the evolution, as Giorgio was mentioning, we see a positive -- I mean, we have a positive view on the performance fees. Therefore, in Q3, we expect a positive contribution from the performance fee. Obviously, the market could change. Therefore, it's something that we see at the end of July, but we don't like to bet on the performance. So we always try to keep a lower expectation on what we could do without have any negative effect in the future, I would say. So at the level of the guidance, again, positive -- we are positive on the quarter and also on the variable fees, as you -- I mean, we always do, we keep a level of EUR 15 million full year as we do normally. So we would like to keep, let's say, the same level. And at the level of distribution cost as well, obviously, we expect an increase because we expect to grow. But I mean, keeping again the same guidelines that we presented at the beginning of the year.

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Medda, there are no questions at this time. Sir, back to you for any closing remarks.

Fantastic. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining this call. And obviously, we wish you all a great summer, and talk to you next time. Bye.