Ball Corporation (BALL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to day 3 of the 2020 Goldman Sachs Virtual Industrial and Material Conference. My name is Brian Maguire. I cover the U.S. Paper, Packaging & Environmental Services Group here at Goldman. Happy to start the packaging format portion of the day. Our next company is Ball Corporation, which is a global leader in rigid packaging. Ball's primarily focused on manufacturing metal beverage cans, where it's the leading producer in most of the regions it operates in. And joining us from Ball, we're pleased to welcome CEO, John Hayes. John has a couple of disclosures he's going to read, and then we're going to transition over to the fireside chat. John?

Great. Thanks, Brian, and thanks for having me. So the information provided during this call is going to contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those may be expressed or implied. And some factors that could cause results or outcomes to differ are in the company's latest 10-K and other company SEC filings as well as the company's news releases and the 10-Q. So with that, Brian, I'll turn it back to you.

Yes. I just wanted to remind the audience again, especially if this is the first session you're joining us on the webcast, you can ask questions. They just are done electronically. There should be a dialogue box on the webcast for you to submit your questions. They'll come in to me in the form of a queue, and then I will then spend last 10, 15 minutes of our program today reading them to John. So please get your questions in. Would hope to make this as interactive as possible, even though we're all sort of dealing with the unique circumstances of having a virtual conference this year. So with that behind us, I wanted to officially welcome you, John. Wanted to really start really the -- you've got a great long-term story that I really want to get into. But to start the conversation off, we want to hear some kind of real-time trends in the business, given all the impacts of COVID, hear how that's been impacting you guys. We had the earnings call not too long ago, got some comments around how things were in April, and it seemed like there was some choppiness in places like Brazil, in Europe. So -- but we were also hearing some signs that things were maybe stabilizing in early May. I was hoping to just start off by getting an update on where we stand on those parts of the world. If we've seen those trends continue? Or maybe we're seeing more signs of sequential week-over-week improvement?

Yes. Happy to go into that. Let me preface it by kind of giving context around this because the demand of our product is largely related in this environment as to whether it's largely consumed what's known as off-premise or what's known as on-premise. Off-premise is kind of away from the bars, restaurants, immediate consumption, meaning convenience stores here in the United States or small kiosks in Europe or little bodegas down in South America. So with that as a backdrop, I'll quickly go through each of the regions. Here in North America, every can made is a can sold. Yes, the on-trade has been effectively closed and it's just slowly starting to open up. But the off-trade, where 80% of our beverage cans are consumed in North America, has been booming because all the on-trade has switched to the off-trade. We have -- had seen some mix issues that are a bit of a headwind relative to convenience store sales being down meaningfully and standard 12-ounce cans being a bit stronger in the multipack. So that's kind of what's going on in North America. And for those of you who live in North America, you should not be surprised at all. When you go over to Europe, it's very much a mixed bag, if you will, you have some more -- I'll describe it as the traditional Continental Europe, the Germanys, the Frances, which the trends are kind of, as you'd expect, not great, not horrible. But the consumption patterns are a healthy mix of off-premise, meaning at home; or on-premise, which is either the equivalent of convenience stores or restaurants and pubs and things like that. When you get to Southern Europe, we have seen a material impact to the demand side of the business, largely because there's no tourism. When I say Southern Europe, I'm thinking of Spain, I'm thinking of Southern France, I'm thinking about Italy, really the whole Mediterranean Basin. And more than 50% of all cans consumed there are that on-premise, meaning the convenience store type immediate consumption channels, and that's been soft. We haven't date seen a pickup in that because tourism hasn't picked up. In fact, Europe is just starting to open up to this. And I know that Germany and France and Austria, I think are the 3 that are kind of ahead of everyone. But I think it's premature to say there's been any change to that. In Northern Europe, which is really the Nordics countries, there's a lot of what's known as border trade where people are crossing the borders on a daily basis, think of it a little bit go to work, a little bit of tourism, a little bit to see family. And as a result of that, all the borders have been shut down. And so that has put a bit of a lock down there. I think the other places in Europe are relatively stable. The only watch out, I'd say is, and we said this on our conference call last week, was in Russia, where Russia was -- continue to be quite strong, but they're about a month to 6 weeks behind probably the United States in terms of the impact of COVID. We're just starting to see the impact there, and it is getting definitely softer there. But it's premature to say what that will look like as we go forward over the next few months. Lastly, down in South America, as we said, when this all happens, more than -- particularly in Brazil, when more than 60% of all beverage can consumption is this immediate channel-type consumption, we were seeing 60-plus percent declines. Now as we got to the tail end of April and even into early May, that was tempered down to, call it, 20%, some days and/or weeks a little bit better than that. Some days or weeks a little bit worse than that, but it certainly has modified. The key question to all these regions is as we go forward is what it looks like when they start to open up again. And I could speculate, but I think it's unwise to speculate. But when you view it through what is immediate consumption versus what is, call it, at-home consumption or pantry consumption, that will be a big driver as to what it looks like as it starts to open up.

And so a lot of it does just seem to be dictated by regionally, how much of it is on-premise versus off-premise. Brazil, it seemed like there were some pretty strict government actions, and maybe they've started to loosen up on those a little bit. Is that kind of consistent...

Yes.

With what you're seeing? And that will be the catalyst for demand to pick up. Because you hear volume is down 60%. I mean it's hard to imagine actual demand is dropping that much. There's something impeding that. So you think that we're starting to see all the signs that -- when you talk to your channel partners, your customers, they're thinking about starting production back up, you are thinking about starting to resupply them. And then tied to that, do you think there could be like a bullwhip effect on inventories, that all this stuff -- that there's demand for it, it got consumed, the retail channel is completely dry and bare. And now there'll be a restocking phenomenon that happens that you might actually see volume snapback a little bit?

No, I don't think there's going to be restocking because remember, most of the -- 2/3 of the cans in Brazil are immediate consumption. And so there isn't stocking, destocking like we think about living in the United States. I do -- on the positive side, however, we are seeing many of these channels start to reopen. The biggest question is, as we go forward a couple of months from now is what is the economic impact of it because when people don't have jobs, they're not buying consumer goods. And it's too early to tell that, but it is definitely coming back, but I don't expect that there'd be a snapback in terms of restocking because it wasn't destocked. It was these stores just closed.

Got it. And then in North America, your comments around being sold out, but it does seem like the mix has shifted, right, from convenience stores to club stores. And so if you think about the mix impact of that, is that sort of a move from specialty cans to standard 12-ounce cans? And then just thinking about how that impacts the operations and the financial performance of the business, is it, I suppose, a little bit of a negative on margins and the price point, but maybe a little bit of a positive on the operations and less changeovers and less complexity from that?

Yes, that's -- you hit it on the head. That's exactly it. So what you gain in efficiencies, but you lose in price points and net-net, it's probably a little bit of a headwind. But the encouraging thing is, and just speaking to customers, we are seeing as these -- as the lockdowns start to loosen up, you are seeing the convenience channels start to pick up more. So we do think it was a temporary phenomenon. But again, it's so hard to predict a month, 2, 3 months from now, what it will look like. But I think the trends are going in the right direction. But you're absolutely right, you gain on efficiencies, you lose on price points.

Great. And outside of the demand impact, which, again, sitting here in the U.S., the trends here that we're seeing all seem favorable for the can, but you look out globally, and these things all make sense. But outside of the demand impact, are you seeing anything in the supply chain, ability to get aluminum can sheet, workers' ability to get into the plants, high levels of absenteeism anywhere? Just anything around operations and supply chain that would be more than a volume hit here?

Yes. No, let's start with the people side of the business. Our folks have been absolutely phenomenal. And as you know, our plants are very big. And by definition, we can social distance because our smallest plant is probably the size of a football pitch, and we would have, at any given time, 40 to 50 people in there, so you can really spread out. But the ability just -- they've been living under conditions, they are coming into work every day. We have -- in Europe, had -- particularly in Europe, had a higher absenteeism, about 3, 4 weeks ago. A little bit here in North America. That's moderated. So -- and it never was an impact. It was just higher than average. And then our supply chain partners, I think, all these essential businesses, they, too, the frontline folks have been phenomenal in the coordination and collaboration. So we haven't really had any supply chain hiccups per se. The one positive come out of all this, as you know, in North America, aluminum can sheet was in short supply. And in fact, we've increasingly had to go outside the United States to procure aluminum can sheet. And that's why -- in fact, we can talk about a little bit later on. But that's why our working capital build has been greater because the supply chain is effectively longer by doing that. Here in North America, what's happened over the last 2 months, aluminum cars are not being made, commercial aircraft are not being made and those are the 2 big industries that compete for rolled can sheet. And so we've been having discussions with our metal suppliers about longer-term arrangements because every time we have a financial crisis, whether it was in '08, whether it was in '01, people always remember how stable the beverage can industry is and how volatile the other industries are. And in good economic times, they seem to forget that. So we're having a lot of good discussions about sourcing more domestic supply here as we go forward. And it's premature to declare anything, but I can tell you this, 8 or 10 weeks ago, those discussions were much more on the back burner with our suppliers.

And that would -- just thinking about it, that would benefit you kind of largely by just reducing the trade lines and potentially working capital and inventory as it has to kind of move across oceans. And then there seems to be a little bit of a nationalist fervor these days. And so repatriating some of that just maybe makes it a more reliable supply chain?

Yes, definitely more reliable and you reduce the risk and because you reduce the time of the supply chain. When you, for example, have to get metal from Asia, we prefer to get it in North America for North America. We'd prefer to get it in Europe for Europe, et cetera. But when you're getting it in Asia for North America, by definition, the number of days on hand is longer because if you have a ship that's bringing it over here have a dislocation somewhere, you need to have safety stock. So by definition, you have a, what we call, a longer supply chain and which is -- which costs working capital.

Yes. That makes perfect sense. So I'm going to put the virus aside, and we may get to that in the Q&A. If -- again, if anybody has any questions they want to follow-up on those points, please send them to me. But I wanted to transition to more of the medium- to longer-term growth outlook for the beverage can. You talked about a couple of quarters ago, targeting, I think it was a 4% to 6% sort of annual growth rate. It was a little bit of regional difference in there, but over a 3- to 5-year period, so kind of a reasonable medium-, longer-term outlook. That's impressive in any industry, let alone one that's been around for as long as the can has been. So I was wondering if you can kind of just talk again about what some of the growth drivers you see behind that rate of growth. I mean you've been kind of at that growth rate for maybe a year or 2, this year will be obviously a little bit slower than that because of the virus, but then coming out of it, we expect we kind of get back on that trajectory. What has really been driving the growth over the last couple of years? And what do you think is going to make that growth sustainable over the next couple of years?

Yes, it's a good question, Brian. And what I would say is the fundamentals underpinning that 4% to 6% annual volume growth globally that we talked about, nothing has really changed there. When you think about what's driving that, you -- there are several things. Number one, this whole sustainability thing. It started in Europe, definitely. But it is a global phenomenon, and nothing has changed in the current environment relative to it. In fact, one could argue that sustainability is even more important in today's world. And I'm happy to talk more about that. And so in Europe, what you're seeing is package substitution shift for that. Here in North America, it's all about new products. I was just thinking about this. I can't think of a new product, meaning whether it's a spiked seltzer, whether it's seltzer water, whether it's iced coffees. I can't think of a new product that isn't going predominantly into beverage cans. And a lot of it has to do with -- 20 years ago, we could make 3, 4, 5 different sizes, and they all looked the same, and there wasn't much differentiation. Well, now we make over 40 different sizes, and it should be no surprise that many of these new products are coming out in different fluid ounces and different heights. Again, just think about the spiked seltzer, which continues to grow incredibly strong that I don't think anyone was anticipating. So that's the big phenomenon in North America. And I think some of it is driven by consumers' attitudes towards sustainability. We can talk a little bit about still water. That continues to make progress. I would say from a retailer perspective, in light of the last 8 weeks, they've said, let's put these new product launches on hold for the time being, we're just trying to keep our shelves stocked. But I do think as we go forward, you're going to see more and more and more of that, and again, a whole new category for the can. And then lastly, in South America. South America has been pretty volatile, COVID aside, over the past few years. But the core thing that is happening is the beverage can is replacing returnable glass, particularly on the beer side of it, and we expect those trends to continue. In fact, one could argue, again, this whole COVID would help it accelerate. But those are kind of the 3 big underpinnings by region of why we continue to believe the 4% to 6% annual volume growth globally over the next, call it, 3 to 5 years is certainly realistic.

And it's interesting to me because I think we're seeing similar growth rates in each region, but it does sort of seem like they're being driven a little bit by different things. Europe, I think sustainability seems, first and foremost; U.S., new products, like spiked seltzer; Brazil, maybe more of the shift from returnable glass to one [ way ] in cans. Do you think that the fact that they're maybe all a little bit different trends makes the aggregate growth rate potential more or less durable?

Well, it's kind of like a diversified portfolio. I think by definition, when you have multiple levers to pull, I think it's always healthy on that. The other thing that's important to note is here in North America, close to 60% of all beer, packaged beer is in cans. And that's why you're seeing all these new products kind of try and differentiate themselves relative to that. Over in Europe, it's still -- the can is a share of the package, package mix depends upon countries. But overall, it's still in the low to mid-20s. And so I think by definition, it just has more runway. That's another lever to pull I didn't mention a couple of minutes ago in Europe, but it just goes to show the more leverage you have, I think, the better off and more, to your point, durable it is.

And related to that, there's a question we often get from investors about that 4% to 6% growth rate because clearly, the beverage category, packaged beverages globally, particularly in the regions that you operate in, aren't growing quite anywhere near that mid-single-digit rate. So there's an assumption that you must be taking some market share from other substrates. And I think there's evidence of that. We can all see it, especially in North America here. But how much do you think, like, if you had to put it in percentage terms, do you think you need to be taking like 1 point of market share from other substrates to get to 4% to 6%? I guess just -- you mentioned some of the can penetration rates in beer in the U.S. and Europe just there. But for the can globally versus glass versus plastic, where do you think the market share is? And if aggregate average demand is only growing 1% or 2%, something maybe at or slightly below global GDP, do you think you need to be taking 1 point a year or 2 points a year? Do you think of it in those terms?

No, yes, I definitely think of it in those terms, just to give you context. And I think we've -- I think this is -- we have it in -- on our website. But we, about a year ago, maybe 18 months now, we looked around the world in those areas in which we operate, and said, what would a 1 percentage point market share shift? So globally, the can is, let's just say, in the 27%. It's a little bit lower than that, but let's just say it's 27%. 1 percentage point shift goes to 28%, not that much, but yet that represents 19 billion cans to Ball. And so when you think about we make, call it, 105 billion, plus or minus, 107 billion cans, and a 1 percentage point shift provides nearly 20 billion cans of opportunity, that is assuming 0 growth in liquid beverages. So you have that, and all you need is 1 percentage point, and all of a sudden, over a 3-year period, and you get to mid to upper of that 4% to 6%. And that assumes no liquid volume growth. That's in part why we feel strong about this.

And apart from the volume growth opportunity, which it seems compelling based on what you said and the trends we're seeing, it seems like there's also an opportunity to mix up the business since a lot of the growth is -- seems to be disproportionately coming from the specialty cans. So maybe you can just talk about how much of your mix today is specialty cans? How much of the new growth is in those cans? And then we can kind of triangulate where we could potentially get to in terms of mix from specialty.

Yes. Well, I know mix at the end of the first quarter was about 46% globally, of every can we made was a non-standard 12-ounce can. Just to give you context, in 2016, if I remember correctly, it was about 30%. So all the growth has been really coming in specialty. And even though -- to give you an example, even in the first quarter, despite the focus on multipacks here in North America, the vast majority of our growth came from specialty containers around the world. And so those trends continue. And people, I remember a year ago, were saying, when will you be able to get to 50-50, 50% specialty? And we said, we historically would have thought 3, 4 years from now but with all the growth coming in, it's probably quicker than that. And I think we started this year at kind of 43%, 44%, now it's at 46%. So I think that march continues.

And then I wanted to get to sustainability, it is the biggest theme in the space before we started to get hit with the virus. But I think coming out of this crisis, it's going to remain the biggest theme in the group and what's going to drive growth in the group. And that's something you talked about at the Investor Day in 2018, I think that was one of the first times I heard a company talk about it. Now you can't go to any investor day in packaging without it being the first or second topic. So it's -- you, clearly, I think were ahead of the trend. I still think of you guys as the thought leader on the space. And as you think about the impacts from the virus, has that changed the conversation? I think you mentioned maybe just the retail channel is more focused on just getting things on the shelf. So maybe that means, let's just stick to what we know and not spend some retail shelf space on trialing some new product that might or might not move. But beyond that part of the conversation, has there been anything about the virus that's either accelerated or decelerated your conversations with brand owners?

No. I -- other than just the disruptions and everyone saying, let's put a hold on this right now because we're dealing with more pressing and immediate issues, nothing has changed. In fact, the only thing that really has changed, I think the awareness of plastic and the lack of recyclability, it has only increased this because people sitting -- are spending a lot more time at home. They're seeing it piling up and they're realizing -- there's been a variety of studies I've seen over the last few weeks that consumers are looking at this and saying, "Oh my gosh, now I really understand it because I see it real time piling up in my house". But outside of that, Brian, no, there hasn't been any significant changes, if you will, to it. I mean the can, as you know, the discussion is as much about recycling versus collection. And when you think of 75% of all aluminum still in use today -- or ever produced by mankind is still in use today, it has to do because it's infinitely recyclable and can go over and over and over again where the vast majority of plastic has never even been recycled once. And there's -- one of the major reasons about that is there's economics. There's economic value in recycling aluminum when there's not in recycling plastic. And so I think as the world marches forward, I think there's a much greater awareness and self-awareness on the impact our environment, writ large, has on our lives. And I think that COVID is a great example of that. And people are extrapolating that into their everyday lives, including the choices they make around packaging.

And still water is one of those categories that -- it's a huge category, and the can has never really had a significant presence. It's kind of always been dominated by PET. And it seems like you're -- you've started a couple of trials, both Coke and Pepsi have gone public with trialing it. I saw my first Aquafina in a can, I was in Austin about 2 months ago, right before the lockdowns hit. Saw it flying off-the-shelf with everything else as people were stocking up, but it was good to see it kind of out there in the retail channel. But what can you say about what you were seeing maybe before some of these programs got put on hold about customer acceptance there? Do you ultimately think it's going to be sort of a niche product in the market? Maybe there's 10% of consumers that truly care enough about sustainability to adopt to can? Or do you think it has potential beyond that?

Well, yes, a couple of things. Number one, I do think our customers see the trends relative to this whole plastic debate. And in part, it's driven by retailers. And we had a variety of discussions going -- ongoing with retailers about this very thing, not only with our customers but with the retailers, where they were giving us calls to understand better the whole sustainability credentials of the can. And so some of those things have been -- hit the pause button for a little while. But in recent discussions, we full well expect to kind of pick up those discussions either now or in the very near future because it's still on the minds of everyone. As to your questions to whether or not it's a niche product, here's the reality. The aluminum beverage can is more expensive than one of those cheap plastic bottles that you can buy a case for $2.99 unbranded effectively. We won't be able to compete there. So I think we will skew a little bit more towards the higher end. But let's not forget, around the world, there's over nearly -- more than 500 billion plastic -- single-use plastic bottles used for still water. So just 1 percentage point shift and that is huge. And that's where we think the opportunity is.

No, that makes sense. And the other potential greenfield opportunity, and we don't hear about greenfields opportunities in packaging too often, is the cup, and you introduced the aluminum cup. I forget now if it was last year or the year before, but it's a very cool looking product if anybody has ever seen it. It's -- it could be a huge hit at college parties, I'm sure. You scored a big win with it, you had it at the Super Bowl in Miami. That seems like the kind of venue that would be great for it seems to fit in really great at high-end events like that, maybe even college sporting events. But as far as making it more of a mainstream product, do you think the main obstacle is getting the cost down to a level where it can be more competitive with plastic? And kind of on a related topic, you're spending a lot to develop the product this year, a lot of OpEx dollars on it. How is that going? And with all the shutdowns of sporting events and kind of venues where you would otherwise probably be trialing it, do you think that we've maybe delayed or stunted its growth by a year or so?

Yes. Let me -- there's a bunch of interrelated questions in there. Let me kind of first start and remind everyone what this -- what the go-to-market strategy of this. Number one was to create awareness of this. The -- as we talked earlier, the consumer has an awareness around plastic pollution, but doesn't have enough awareness around the solutions thereof. The aluminum cup is a perfect solution to the -- to replacement of the plastic cup. And so our strategy all along was to get awareness going. And the best way to do that was going into highly visible things. The Super Bowl is a great example of that. But many other -- the Waste Management open golf tournament down in Phoenix. And I could go on and on. But that was because we have limited production right now. And so we are very focused on those high mentioned areas while we built our new manufacturing facility, which is still on track, we can talk about that later. So -- and then phase 2 of all that was as we're getting the awareness, then we'd move into retail where, literally, you could go into a big box store, you could go online, you could go into the drug channel, wherever it was and see the aluminum cup. What has happened over the last 8 -- probably even 3 months as we've accelerated meaningfully, the go-to-retail strategy because -- for several reasons. Number one, we're more than pleased with the awareness we've been getting from the consumer writ large about its sustainable credentials and what it means. Number two, we've been doing a bunch of research about price elasticity. And in fact, we didn't promote this, but we -- you could go on our website and buy 5 cups for $5. And while it was very small quantities, we saw that the -- how the demand, the strength of the demand without any prompt that was coming in. So that was kind of exciting. And so yes, over the very near term, we've -- the venues are not trialing it, but we're still having conversations because we're not going to have real capacity other than a couple million units coming out of our pilot line until the fourth quarter really early next year. And so we're looking ahead next year and we're using it as an opportunity to reposition with the venue because at some point now, they'll come back, but also accelerating the whole retail side. So you, as a consumer, can walk into your grocery store or go online and buy them in mass, whether it's a 10 pack, a 20 pack, a 50 pack. We're looking at all those things right now.

And the price on it, the dollar on mind is obviously -- that's a pilot type of price point. Do you think you can get it down to -- you talked about the elasticity and the price point, something that's -- it will never be equivalent to plastic, obviously, but something where it's a little bit closer or more of a -- less of a splurge purchase for consumers?

Well, number one, I'm not sure if you're calling $0.10 a splurge purchase. I am not sure that is and that's kind of what we're talking about here. We've done a bunch of -- this is very -- the retail price point will be very competitive with compostable cups, which, by the way, are not compostable, but that's a whole another issue. It will be a premium to just a standard plastic container. But our research and our experience shows us that consumers are more than willing to pay for that.

Great. We don't have too much time left, but I do want to go to the audience Q&As as we've had a couple come in, but I just wanted to hit one on the topic we haven't gotten to yet just -- which is the financial guidance for the year. You're one of the few companies to actually provide 2020 guidance still. And you did cut the free cash flow guide to roughly $500 million from $600 million before, but I think it's kind of a modest victory just to be able to provide any guidance in this environment. It seems -- the question is basically, it seems like most of that was due to a working capital increase, which you talked about earlier around can sheet and maybe there were some VAT taxes and other things in there, but $125 million increase there. And obviously, the EBIT will come in a little bit lower because of the virus. But just I guess the question is around what are some of the other offsets to -- maybe on moving pieces in that free cash flow algorithm, some of the positive offsets to the slightly lower EBIT from the virus? And maybe just how you think about CapEx and working capital needs going forward into '21?

Yes. Well, let's boil this down to simple components. Free cash flow is a function of your earnings, your working capital plus or minus, your CapEx relative to depreciation as well as everything else, I'll call it, pensions, deferred taxes, things like that. So if you go line by line, when you conceptually take a step back and think about it, our -- relative to what we thought 2 months ago, our earnings are going to be lower. And how much lower, I can't tell you because we're right in the midst of all this. And we -- I just refer people back to what we said last week on our conference call. Working capital, we said, it's going to be a greater build for the reason as we talked about. But at the same time, CapEx, we had some projects on the table, particularly down in South America, which are going to be pushed to the right. It just makes sense to push them to the right given what's going on there. And so our overall working capital -- even though that we still have plans to do it, it's a timing issue. And so that will be coming down. And then everything else is kind of mixes and matches, it hasn't changed all that much. So while our earnings are down and our working capital is up, our CapEx will probably be down a bit as well. But again, all of this is predicated on what the second half of the year looks like relative to the stay-at-home rules being loosened around the world.

And then just any initial thoughts on '21, last question, and just to tie up the initial question. Just any initial thoughts on '21 working capital or CapEx needs?

It's way too premature. But I will say this, the long-term strategic direction of our company and its cash earnings and cash flow capability have not been long-term impacted we don't believe by the near-term COVID situation. Yes, 2020 will be very different than what we thought 3 months ago. But I think the longer term, the 3- to 5-year outlook hasn't changed.

Great. Great. Well, that's a great way to end it. And thanks, John, so much for the time. Thanks, everyone, for listening, especially those of you who submitted questions. And everyone, enjoy the rest of the conference and stay safe out there.

All right. Thanks, Brian.