BASF SE (BAS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of BASF, I would like to welcome you to our conference call on the full year 2020 results. [Operator Instructions] This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current estimates and projections of the Board of Executive Directors and currently available information. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future developments and results outlined therein. These are dependent on a number of factors. They involve various risks and uncertainties, and they are based on assumptions that may not prove to be accurate. Such risk factors include those discussed in Opportunities and Risks of the BASF report 2020. BASF does not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation above and beyond the legal requirements. On the call with me today are Martin Brudermuller, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors; and Hans Engel, Chief Financial Officer. Please be aware that we have already posted the speech on our website at basf.com/fy2020. This brings us to the point where I give the floor to Martin Brudermuller.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us. We hope that you and your families are doing well in this still challenging environment which continues to be dominated by the pandemic. Recent developments such as the mutations of the coronavirus and the slower-than-expected vaccination progress in Europe show us that it will take more time before we will see a significant and lasting relief from this pandemic. Despite these challenges, we had a strong finish to the year. EBIT before special items exceeded our October forecast for the full year and was considerably above analyst consensus. Today, we will provide you with further details. Let me begin with some highlights of the strong fourth quarter of 2020. In Q4, we increased volumes across all regions. In Greater China, we continued to record double-digit volume growth. Volumes increased in almost all segments. In some commodity product lines such as isocyanates, we considerably expanded our margins. Lower fixed costs also contributed to BASF's strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2020. Since the pandemic is still not behind us, we are doing everything we can to ensure safe operations for our employees that have to be on site. All employees that can work from home are strongly encouraged to do so. We continue to put strong focus on cash generation, cost control and reduction of capital expenditures for our ongoing business. We also maintained a higher liquidity level than usual. Our strong balance sheet and good credit ratings ensure BASF's unrestricted access to debt markets. Let us now turn to the macroeconomic data to put BASF's performance into perspective. The indicators for Q4 are estimates, as most of the countries have not yet published their figures for the quarter. In Q4 2020, global chemical production increased by 4.9% mainly on account of the growth in China. China continued with its strong recovery, which already started in Q2 2020. Europe and North America also experienced a strong, continued recovery on chemical production in the second half of 2020. On this slide, you can see our volume growth by region over the last 4 quarters compared with the respective quarters of 2019. During the last 3 quarters of the year, we recorded double-digit volume growth in Greater China across almost all segments. We continue to benefit from our strong position in China. The planned Verbund site in Guangdong province will further increase our presence and customer proximity in the dynamically growing Chinese market. In Europe and North America, our volumes turned positive in Q4 2020 and were above market growth according to current macroeconomic estimates. During the second and third quarter of 2020, sales volumes in Europe and North America were still negatively impacted by the lockdowns. We now take a look at the volume development by segment. In the fourth quarter of 2020, and this is the upper graph, BASF Group sales volumes increased by 7%. All segments were able to grow volumes, except for Agricultural Solutions where volumes remained stable. The volume increase was most pronounced in the Surface Technologies, Materials and Industrial Solutions segments. The global recovery in automotive production was the main driver for this. In 2020, and this is the lower graph, we were able to almost match the volume level of 2019. Higher volumes in Agricultural Solutions and Nutrition & Care could almost offset the decline in the remaining segments as well as in others. Overall, BASF with its diversified portfolio serving a broad range of customer industries has again proven to be resilient. On this slide, we will first focus on the graph on the left, the earnings development in Q4 2020 compared with the prior year quarter. EBIT before special items increased by 32% to EUR 1.1 billion. Considerably higher earnings in the Materials, Chemicals and Industrial Solutions segment were the driver for this. Lower contributions from the remaining segments as well as from others were more than offset. Hans will provide you later with some further details on the quarterly earnings development by segment. I will move on to the full year earnings development depicted on the right-hand side. Details can be also found in the BASF report. EBIT before special items came in at EUR 3.6 billion, 23% below the prior year figure. Due to the impact of the pandemic, all segments recorded lower earnings, with one exception. The Industrial Solutions segment matched the 2019 level of EBIT before special items. On BASF Group level, the decline in earnings was particularly driven by considerably lower contributions from our upstream businesses. The sharp drop in demand from the automotive industry especially burdened the earnings development in Surface Technologies segment. Let's now look at BASF's financial and nonfinancial targets. As mentioned before, our sales volume were almost stable and came in just 0.5% below 2019 level. Global chemical production decreased in the same order of magnitude. EBITDA before special items declined by around 11% to EUR 7.4 billion mainly on account of lower contributions from the Chemicals and Surface Technologies segment as well as other. ROCE was at 1.7%, down from 7.7% in 2019. This was due to considerably lower EBIT, which was negatively impacted by noncash effective impairments in the amount of EUR 2.9 billion. Let me also touch on the performance-based compensation of our employees at this point. ROCE determines the variable compensation. In 2020, ROCE was below the threshold for a bonus payment. However, the Board of Executive Directors decided to pay a bonus of appreciation in these difficult times. With this, we want to acknowledge the great commitment of the BASF team during the corona pandemic in 2020. In total, we will pay out EUR 360 million in bonuses. Furthermore, we propose to pay a dividend of EUR 3.30 per share. I will later elaborate on this proposal in some more detail. Before that, let's move on to the -- our nonfinancial targets. We aim to grow CO2 neutrally until 2030. That means we aim to maintain total greenhouse gas emissions from our production sites and our energy purchases at the 2018 level of 21.9 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents while increasing production. In 2020, these emissions amounted to 20.8 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents, an increase of 3.5% compared with the previous year. The decline in emissions due to measures to increase energy efficiency and optimize processes as well as lower production volumes were more than offset particularly by the integration of the Polyamide business acquired from Solvay in January 2020. In addition, we aim to achieve EUR 22 billion in Accelerator sales by 2025. In 2020, we generated sales of EUR 16.7 billion with Accelerator products. This is an increase of 11% compared with EUR 15 billion in 2019. The positive development of Accelerator sales in the Surface Technologies and Agricultural Solutions segments was the main reason for this increase. In the effort or to transition towards a more sustainable business, we have reached important milestones in 2020. In our Carbon Management Program, we have completed the construction of a pilot reactor for methane pyrolysis and started it up. This is an important step towards industrial-scale production of hydrogen without CO2 emissions and in the midterm a more energy-efficient alternative to water electrolysis. 2 of our sites in Texas, Freeport and Pasadena, have recently secured access to renewable energy. In total, 19 of our sites globally are already powered partially or fully with renewable energy. Currently, we are pursuing more than 5,000 operational effectiveness measures, of which around 25% are related to carbon management. In addition, we are advancing with the rollout of our broader carbon footprints for all of our 45,000 products. Regarding our Circular Economy Program, we have successfully marketed first commercial volumes of Ccycled products. This year, we will further expand volumes and support our customers with their plans to launch more commercial applications. The plant of our partner Quantafuel in Denmark has started up, with our support, enabling the chemical recycling of mixed plastic waste. We have broadened the raw material base to end-of-life tires through an investment into the German start-up company Pyrum Innovations and a supply agreement with the Hungarian start-up company New Energy. By setting ambitious targets for circularity, we have defined our path forward and underlined our commitment to contribute to a circular economy. Let us move on to the status of our Excellence Program. In 2020, we realized positive EBITDA contributions of around EUR 1.4 billion. The associated costs amounted to around EUR 200 million. We are well on track to achieve the targeted EUR 2 billion annual EBITDA contribution by the end of this year. The values are run-rates. The associated onetime costs in 2021 are estimated to be between EUR 50 million and EUR 150 million. On top of this program, the realignment of our Global Business Services unit will result in additional savings of more than EUR 200 million for the year from 2023 onwards. Ladies and gentlemen, despite the pandemic, we have achieved a solid cash flow, and BASF has again proven to be resilient. A reliable dividend payment even in difficult times is a priority for the BASF Board. Therefore, we will propose a dividend of EUR 3.30 per share at the Annual Shareholders' Meeting. In total, we would pay out EUR 3 billion to our shareholders, as in the previous year. Based on the year-end share price of EUR 64.72, BASF would offer a high dividend yield of 5.1%, and we want to continue offering you an attractive dividend in the future. Let me therefore provide you with some more further rationale regarding our dividend policy going forward. Our cash flows from operating activities in the coming years are expected to cover both the capital expenditures for our ongoing business and our dividend payments. Based on our mid-term projections, we will even have some headroom to further reduce our financial debt. The new Verbund site in South China and our investments in battery materials will boost BASF's future growth. We will finance the strong organic growth in these areas with the proceeds from our divestitures. Despite high investments in these growth projects during the next years, our future portfolio is expected to be less capital intensive following this transformation. And now Hans will give you more details regarding our active portfolio management, the business development in Q4 and the full year 2020.

Thank you, Martin. And good morning, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side. I will start by giving you a short update on our major portfolio measures. On January 31, 2020, BASF closed the acquisition of Solvay's polyamide business. In the meantime, the businesses have been successfully integrated into BASF's Performance Materials and Monomers divisions. We closed the sale of the construction chemicals business to an affiliate of Lone Star on September 30, 2020. The construction chemicals business is now part of the newly founded MBCC Group. The sale of our pigments business to DIC Sun Chemical is now expected to close in the first half of 2021. The project teams are well prepared to allow for a swift and seamless cutover once merger clearance from all relevant authorities have been granted. As of now, the transaction obtained merger clearance in 10 of 11 jurisdictions globally, including the conditional clearances of the EU Commission and the Japan Fair Trade Commission, both granted in December 2020. Only the merger clearance process in the U.S. is still ongoing. With respect to Wintershall Dea, we are realizing the announced synergies. The integration was completed. We assume an initial public offering in 2021, subject to market conditions. Let me turn to the financial figures of BASF Group for Q4 2020 compared with the prior year quarter in more detail. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 8% to EUR 15.9 billion. As explained by Martin, volumes were up by 7%. Prices also increased by 7%, mainly driven by the Surface Technologies, Agricultural Solutions and Materials segments. Portfolio effects contributed 1% and were related to the acquisition of Solvay's polyamide business. Currency effects negatively impacted sales by 7%. EBITDA before special items increased by 15% to EUR 2.1 billion. EBITDA amounted to EUR 2 billion compared with EUR 1.6 billion in Q4 2019. EBIT before special items came in at EUR 1.1 billion, 32% higher than in Q4 2019. I will provide you with some further details on the quarterly earnings development by segment, as this is not outlined in the BASF report 2020 published today. EBIT before special items in the Chemicals segment improved considerably compared with Q4 2019. Both divisions Petrochemicals and Intermediates recorded significantly higher earnings due to lower fixed costs; and improved equity results, especially from our participation in BASF-YPC Nanjing. EBIT before special items in the Materials segment improved even more considerably than in the Chemicals segment. Both divisions in Materials, particularly the Monomers division, recorded significantly higher earnings compared with Q4 2019. Higher margins as a result of demand recovery and partly due to lower product availability in the market were the main driver. In the Industrial Solutions segment, EBIT before special items also increased considerably. In the Dispersions & Pigments division, lower fixed costs and higher margins were the main driver. In Performance Chemicals, EBIT before special items increased as well. In the Surface Technologies segment, EBIT before special items declined slightly. While margins were almost stable in Catalysts, EBIT before special items declined mainly due to higher fixed costs. In Coatings, lower fixed costs could more than compensate for slightly lower margins. Therefore, EBIT before special items in the Coatings divisions increased slightly. EBIT before special items in Nutrition & Care segment decreased slightly compared with Q4 2019, while EBIT before special items in the Care Chemicals division improved slightly due to lower fixed costs. Nutrition & Health recorded considerably lower EBIT before special items. Higher fixed costs offset the margin increase in the division. In Agricultural Solutions, earnings declined considerably compared with the strong fourth quarter of 2019. This was driven by negative currency effects mainly from the Brazilian real as well as the U.S. dollar. Lower fixed costs partly had an offsetting effect. In other, higher fixed costs, including higher provisions for BASF's LTI program, and lower margins led to significantly lower EBIT before special items compared with Q4 2019. Now let us return to the BASF Group figures. Special items in EBIT amounted to minus EUR 181 million compared with minus EUR 263 million in Q4 2019. EBIT increased by 61% to EUR 932 million in Q4 2020. Net income amounted to EUR 1.1 billion compared with EUR 150 million in Q4 2019. The tax rate was 24.7% compared with 19.2% in Q4 2019. Reported earnings per share increased from EUR 0.16 in the prior year quarter to EUR 1.15 in Q4 2020. Adjusted EPS amounted to EUR 1.10. This compares with EUR 0.64 in the prior year quarter. Cash flows from operating activities decreased by EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 2.1 billion in Q4 2020. This decline was mainly driven by a lower cash inflow from changes in net working capital. In Q4 2019, changes in net working capital led to a cash inflow of EUR 1.6 billion compared with EUR 0.6 billion in the operationally stronger Q4 2020. Payments made for intangible assets and property, plant and equipment decreased by EUR 78 million and amounted to EUR 1.1 billion. Free cash flow came in at EUR 1 billion compared to EUR 2 billion in Q4 2019. I will now only quickly comment on the earnings development in the full year 2020. Sales were almost stable and amounted to EUR 59.1 billion. Negative currency and volume effects were almost offset by higher prices and positive portfolio effects. At EUR 7.4 billion, EBITDA before special items was 11% lower than in the prior year. EBITDA amounted to EUR 6.5 billion compared with EUR 8.2 billion in 2019. EBIT before special items decreased by EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 3.6 billion. EBIT decreased from EUR 4.2 billion to minus EUR 191 million. In total, special items in EBIT amounted to minus EUR 3.8 billion compared with minus EUR 442 million in 2019. This increase was mainly driven by noncash-effective impairments in Q3 2020. Net income amounted to minus EUR 1.1 billion. This compares with EUR 8.4 billion in 2019. This significant decline can almost entirely be explained with this year's special -- higher special charges and last year's book gain of around EUR 5.7 billion from the deconsolidation of the Wintershall companies following the mergers of Wintershall and DEA on May 1, 2019. The tax rate decreased from 22.9% to 5.8%. Let's now move on to our cash flow development in the full year 2020. Cash flows from operating activities amounted to EUR 5.4 billion compared with EUR 7.5 billion in the prior year. This was primarily due to lower net income and the higher level of cash tied up in net working capital, where the increase in accounts receivable and precious metal positions due to the strong business in Q4 and high precious metal prices could not be compensated by the reduction of inventories. In 2020, changes in net working capital led to a cash outflow of EUR 400 million compared with a cash inflow of EUR 1.4 billion in 2019. Despite the adverse impact of the pandemic on our business, we achieved a solid free cash flow of EUR 2.3 billion compared with EUR 3.7 billion in 2019. The decrease was mainly driven by lower net income and the higher level of cash tied up in net working capital. Lower payments made for intangible assets and property, plant and equipment had an offsetting effect. Turning to our balance sheet at the end of 2020 compared with the year-end 2019. Total assets decreased by EUR 6.7 billion to EUR 80.3 billion. Compared with the end of December 2019, noncurrent assets decreased by EUR 5.5 billion to EUR 50.4 billion, mainly driven by noncash-effective impairments and currency effects. Compared with the year-end 2019, net debt decreased by EUR 829 million to EUR 14.7 billion. At the end of 2020, the equity ratio amounted to 42.8%. And with that, back to you, Martin, for the outlook.

Ladies and gentlemen, we expect the global economy to recover in 2021 after the sharp downturn resulting from the corona pandemic. However, uncertainty about future developments remains exceptionally high. Our forecast is -- therefore includes wide ranges to account for the possibility of significant disruptions to the global supply chains and negative effects on the entire economy. At the same time, let me say this very clearly: We are confident that, without such negative impacts, we will be able to achieve earnings at the upper end of the forecast range. Our forecast assumes growth in our customer industries. For the automotive industry in particularly -- particular, we are forecasting significant production growth compared with 2020. The global economy should see significant growth of 4.3% compared with minus 3.7% in 2020. Global chemical production is expected to expand by 4.4%, well above the prior year's level of minus 0.4%. We anticipate an average oil price of $50 for a barrel Brent crude and expect an exchange rate of $1.18 per euro. Based on these assumptions, we aim to increase our sales to between EUR 61 billion and EUR 64 billion, up from EUR 59.1 billion in 2020. The BASF Group's EBIT before special items is expected to be between EUR 4.1 billion and EUR 5.0 billion, up from EUR 3.6 billion in 2020. As I mentioned, the upper end of the forecast range should be achievable given the strong business development during the first weeks of this year. The return on capital employed, ROCE, is expected to be between 0.0% (sic) [ 8.0% and 9.2%. To support faster profitable growth of BASF in the future, we will continue -- sorry. Let me also touch on the Accelerator sales and CO2 emissions first -- forecast for the BASF Group. We expect Accelerator sales to increase to between EUR 18 billion and EUR 19 billion in 2021, up from EUR 16.7 billion, in line with the global economic recovery and growing demand for chemical products. Despite the global economic recovery and growing demand for chemical products, CO2 emissions are expected to stabilize at between 20.5 billion (sic) [ 20.5 million ] metric tons and 21.5 metric tons in -- 21.5 million metric tons in 2021. With targeted measures, we will keep emissions roughly at the prior year's level of 20.8 million metric tons. On this slide, we give you a few more explanations regarding our CapEx budget. Between 2021 and 2025, we are planning capital expenditures of EUR 22.9 billion. The capital expenditures in the next 5 years will thus be lower than in the prior planning period from 2020 to 2024. We will allocate 41% of our investments to Asia Pacific and 39% to Europe. A focus area is our investment project in Guangdong province in China to expand our business in Asia. For 2021, we are planning capital expenditures of EUR 3.6 billion in total. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude with our priorities for 2021. We will further implement strategic measures and push the transformation of BASF into a more agile and customer-focused company. To support faster profitable growth of BASF in the future, we will continue to pursue our investment project in Guangdong province and our investments in the production of battery materials. We will energetically drive sustainability and innovation with our Carbon Management and Circular Economy Programs. During our Capital Markets Day on March 26, we will share further information on our aspirations in this field. We are executing the announced portfolio measures. The major upcoming portfolio changes will be the closing of the sale of our pigment business; and the IPO of Wintershall Dea, which is subject to market conditions. We will successfully conclude our Excellence Program and maintain a strict focus on capital and cost discipline. And with this, we are now glad to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Andrew Stott, UBS. He will then be followed by Christian Faitz and Thomas Wrigglesworth, but now first, Andrew Stott, UBS.

Martin and Hans, 2 questions, please. The first one was around the guidance for ag. So considering how important Q1 is in the context of the whole year, is the message that you've had a reasonably lackluster start when you also consider the FX imprint, or is there a degree of conservatism? So that's the first question. The second question is a longer-ranging question around the announcement 2 weeks ago with Siemens. Is -- that hydrogen alliance, I think, as you called it, is that purely to help decarbonize your sites, in particular Ludwigshafen? Or is there a commercial side to that agreement in, for example, areas like catalysis?

Andrew, I'll start with the second one. I mean the announcement with Siemens Energy is one of partnerships and there will others follow over time, where they help us in actually do the first steps on the decarbonization or carbon management agenda. It is basically that they help us with their technologies to establish certain pilot plans and first steps at the Ludwigshafen site. We agreed also that we will look into the catalysis of water electrolysis together, which is a kind of a development part together which is, however, not exclusive. So that is mainly a partnership actually to establish the first steps in the decarbonization program here at site in Ludwigshafen. And the second question is Hans.

Yes. Andrew, on your guidance-for-ag question. We had a good start to the year. We had a strong January, so no complaints there at all, a degree of conservatism, yes, maybe, but certainly also an effect that will come due to FX. If you think about the first half of 2020, the U.S. dollar-euro exchange rate was almost set at $1.10. We are currently at $1.21, $1.22. This is first half northern hemisphere business. The U.S. dollar can have a significant impact here, and this is something that we're factoring into our guidance. But operationally a good, strong start into the season.

The next question is -- sorry. Andrew, was that fine?

Yes.

And now Christian Faitz from Kepler Cheuvreux.

...good morning Hans, I'll also take the 2-question option, please. So first, can you please update us on current capacity outages, namely how your operations in Texas were affected by the freeze and how your isocyanate units globally are presently running? Second question, also on ag. I mean a lot can happen until the summer, yet if my math is right taking the current Brazilian real rate and comparing that to the average in the second half of last year, there is not much of a currency impact. Hence, the big ForEx run-up from 2020, at least in H2, for you should not repeat itself, so why again are you so cautious in significantly more robust agricultural markets that we currently see?

Christian, it's Hans. I'll take both of your question. First of all, on the outages, as everyone else, we were hit by the freeze, yes, in the U.S. Gulf Coast, a number of plants that are down, a number of sites that are down, some of them back up, some of them in the process of coming back. And this is based on the experience in -- with the freeze in 2018, where it came 4 weeks earlier middle of January; and then 2012, where it was in the first week of February. It will take, based on that experience, about 2 to 3 weeks that the situation there shakes out, that supply chains are stabilized. You know how closely interlinked and intertwined the production network is in the U.S. Gulf Coast. And that's what we're currently expecting. Other than that, no major outages in January or in February, but you asked specifically with respect to isocyanates. And yes, the isocyanates plants in Geismar were affected but, based on what I heard yesterday, are back up and running smoothly. So that's the current situation there. Your second question, on FX impacts on the ag business. I go back to what I just said. The predominant impact that we're expecting is resulting from the decline of the U.S. dollar; as I said, $1.10 first half of last year. We're now sitting $1.21, $1.22. So that will have a significant impact. South America, you're absolutely right. That went through the system in Q4, with a significant impact there due to the Brazilian real but also the U.S. dollar. Let's hope that, that doesn't repeat itself. And with that, all of that, we came to the conclusion to guide for a slight increase. If it comes in better than that, I will be perfectly happy.

Next question is from Thomas Wrigglesworth, Citi.

Martin and Hans, my 2 questions. Martin, I think at the third quarter results call you talked about the fact that you thought in China that there might be some restocking element taking place. I wonder if your views have expanded on that now. How has the Chinese order books developed into Chinese New Year and now the week after? I'd be very keen to hear your thoughts on how you think China is going to progress through the course of 2021. The second question, if I may, is on the kind of exit rate and the run rate for the first quarter, obviously noting your comments on ag solutions but focusing on the kind of non-ag business. Can you give us a little bit of a color there as to how strong it is? Obviously, at kind of peak levels, BASF has been able to achieve EUR 2 billion-plus levels of EBIT as a group. It looks like the spreads are commensurate with that kind of level of performance. Is that how we should be thinking about the first quarter?

Thomas, I'm -- I'll take the 2 questions. I mean, first off, China, indeed when we talked the last time, I was not yet sure whether the consumer confidence, the retail sales do fit to the industrial production scale. I would say, over the recent months, this has really become very solid. I mean, if you look on the curves: Customer -- consumer confidence is really high, and industrial production stabilized. So we saw that also in January again with a double-digit volume growth in China. So it really holds on. If I talk to my team, if you go to people, our people, over there, they say basically life has turned to normal. And the shopping malls are full. So I would say I'm very confident now that this really stabilized out and will transport further. That's why also the GDP data as well as the chemical market growth data for China were high. And we think they have [indiscernible] that this is also going to come. So China is really stabilizing. And one of the factor is also evidently that they focus much more on their domestic market and their supply chains over there. So you asked a little bit about the guidance and where we stand with current trading. I mean let me very clearly say the full momentum which we had in the fourth quarter, we have also seen so far this year. We had an exceptionally strong January. Also, in February, business holds on very, very strong. We can -- and this is throughout the businesses, and I would say it is also fairly good distributed between the regions. If you look on our orders at hand, they are actually a double-digit increase both compared to Q4 last year as well as compared to Q1 2020. If you look to our customers and the outlook we have, I would say it is all positive. And with this, I clearly say we are very confident that we reach the consensus level for Q1 2021. And I think also, if we look on Q2 which was a disastrous quarter last year, should be definitely higher. So I would say there should be a full confidence for the first half of the year. I think where our broad range comes from is actually is it really fair to assume that everywhere in the world we will not see any more wave of infection, any lockdown. In the current moment, no one can really say how it evolves on what the new mutations of the virus do; what -- the vaccination progress, how that really is. So I think there is high uncertainty that something might happen, and we just reflected that with the lower part of the range. And I really repeat that here. If that is not going to happen, that we see these interruptions somewhere, in one of the major markets or more, one more market, we are confident to be at the upper range of the corridor we gave you, which is actually also the consensus you have given us in the moment.

The next question is from Jaideep Pandya. He will then be followed by Laurent Favre and Chetan Udeshi. So now Jaideep Pandya.

First question is on the carbon targets you have. Could you just tell us, if we just look at Europe, what sort of cut are you actually penciling in? Because obviously you're growing capacity quite a lot in Asia, so I'm assuming that Europe will have to sort of make room for that. And then how much allowances do you have currently? Are you still positive on the allowances, or are you going to have to buy carbon in the market in your sort of plan? And then the second question really is around upstream. If you can just give us some sense of how much capacity, in your opinion, currently is off-line in cracker products regionally, that would be very helpful.

Jaideep, we will give you a much more detailed overview about CO2 and where we're heading to and what the measures are at the Capitals Markets Day in March 26, but I'll take it a little bit up. I mean, if you look on this target to grow carbon neutrally and 2030, it's exactly reflecting 2 effects. The one is continuous efficiency improvements and also switching purchased electrical energy to renewables and then also using increasingly renewables in our own setup where we clearly reduce our CO2 footprint in absolute numbers, but on the other hand, we have measures where we increased. I mean you saw that also on last year's performance. Basically we made good progress; and then the Solvay acquisition actually added quite a few, a couple of hundred millions of CO2 to that balance. And also you're right. The China development and the China side will also add something, but you -- we will teach you also there. We will build the Petrochemicals site with a significantly lower CO2 footprint as of day 1, but this is these 2 effects. So if you want to grow volumes, it is tough to actually in absolute numbers reduce your CO2, but still we have plans, even with the growth, to reduce further down. But I would like to keep that maybe for the Capital Markets Day. You asked about the allocations. I think certificates currently are trading around EUR 30, EUR 33 per tonne. There are free allocations in this system, but also here we will see there's the green deal, several new designs of how the ETS develops, how they use that for housing and mobility, how that will be included. And I think we have also to expect that free allocations might go down quicker than we think today. And this is why the carbon management and why the active action to really take the CO2 down are so important, but let's get a little bit excited in end of March.

Jaideep, this is Hans...

All right. Looking forward.

Yes. Thanks for your question on the outages in the upstream area. No, I don't have the complete overview. What I can give you is the following: C2 capacity in North America, depending on where you look and which market intelligence you trust, looks like currently 60% to 70% of total capacity in North America affected. LG's cracker, after the fire, in Korea is back on stream. ENEOS, which had -- ENEOS, who's starting with an E, not an I, in Japan had a cracker outage over quite some time. They are back into the system. So predominantly, at this point in time, an issue with C2 capacity in North America. Isocyanates, which we are tracking closely, I look at the MDI planned outages and the TDI planned outages there around the globe. So as to be expected, after the freeze, all sites and, with that, the capacities, in North America being affected, but our understanding is that they're coming back on stream step by step. EMEA at this point in time, both for MDI and for TDI, looks okay, a number of scheduled turnarounds during Q2. And in Asia Pacific, if I see that correctly, that also looks more or less okay, yes. I am aware of the situation with ammonia, where 10 of the big global plants are at this point in time affected by either turnarounds or unplanned outages, again also due to the freeze in North America. I hope that picture helps a little bit and that description and explanation helps a little bit to put things in perspective.

So now we move on to Laurent Favre, Exane BNP.

Two questions, please, as well. And the first one is around the dividend framework. It sounds like you are structuring the framework around exceptional CapEx and base CapEx. So when we look at CapEx of EUR 2.9 billion last year, EUR 3.6 billion this year and, I guess, something around EUR 5 billion for the following years, can you give us a sense of what that exceptional CapEx was last year and is going to be in that EUR 3.6 billion budget for this year? And then Hans, second question, I guess, on ag. Sorry, but regarding LatAm, 2 of your peers have talked about high inventory levels to finish the season given the shortened season. I was wondering, I guess, if you're taking proactive measures of destocking to have a better chance of getting pricing for the beginning of next season. Or are you not seeing those issues on inventories as your peers?

I mean, Laurent, let me start with this dividend framework. I think actually that we propose a dividend of EUR 3.30 per share. I think, given the difficult year of 2020, I think it radiates confidence for the future. This is also why we gave you this explanation where actually this confidence comes from. And I think we have to look operationally on the BASF Group with its core businesses. You know that we have cost discipline and we go for more agility with customers, and I think we progress very well on that. If you look on that and our projections going forward, we really see that this operational cash flow should be strong enough to really pay for the CapEx, the restricted CapEx, for the ongoing business; as well as for the dividend. We wanted to really make clear that, if you have an extraordinary investment like we have now in China, I mean, if you finance that from the normal cash flow of -- in that order of magnitude. I mean I think you have to look differently into this. And that's why we have to really outline again that this is part of the portfolio management. I mean my -- we divest businesses we don't want to be in anymore, that do not fit to BASF. And instead of getting proceeds from divestitures and acquiring new companies, we go for a different way, which is actually organic investment. And I've told you many times that I think organic investment done very well and executed well is more profitable than an acquisition. So for that reason, we have also to consider that we have to spread out the capital over several years. And it will come as a cap basically on top of what we spend for our ongoing businesses. And this is, I think, why we have to separate this a little bit and wanted to give you that outline. If we look on 2020, there was not so much money in there still because what we do is actually ramping up the team. That is cost, but there is not big expenditure yet. And it starts actually now this year, the part that was last year, in the CapEx, but it's -- and the ongoing part is actually the 2 first plants which we have built -- started to build in China. And they are actually on the site, but they are, anyway, in the normal program we have. So it starts. It will ramp up with first costs this year and then certainly will go up. And I think the order of magnitude you pointed out, that we will be in the peak in the order of magnitude which you have outlined is right. And that will then most probably peak in '23 and '24 because, '25, we will -- already going towards completion. So I leave it with that. I think that should give you an idea again how we connected, on one hand, the growth aspirations and the capital we need for that; and on the other hand, our confidence also which we radiate about the dividend. I hope that explains your question.

Sure. And Martin, on that basis, you would expect the start-up of the main cracker when, during 2025 or earlier than that?

The start-up, you mean.

Of the cracker, yes, in Guangdong...

Yes, in '25.

'25.

Laurent, this is Hans. I'm taking your question on the season ending inventories in South America for ag. Talking to Vincent Gros yesterday, who runs our ag division, I did not walk away from that discussion with the impression that there are elevated levels of inventories at the end of the season. What he described to me is normal inventory levels for season ending, so expectation is to go there into the 2020, 2021 season with a normal inventory level for BASF products.