Bezeq The Israel Telecommunication Corp. Ltd (BEZQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Bezeq's 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call. I am Tobi Fischbein, CFO of the Bezeq Group. Joining us from the senior management team today, we have Mr. Tomer Raved, Bezeq's Chairman; Mr. Nir David, Bezeq's Fixed-line CEO; and Mr. Ilan Sigal, CEO of Pelephone and yes. Before we start the call, I would like to direct your attention to the safe harbor statement on Slide 2 of our 2024 investor presentation, which also applies to any statement made during today's call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. Following the presentation of our results, we will have a Q&A session. With that said, let me now turn the call over to Tomer for his opening remarks. After his introduction, I will continue the presentation of our group's financial highlights; followed by Nir, who will discuss Bezeq's Fixed-Line results; and Ilan, who will cover the results from Pelephone and yes. I will conclude the presentation with Bezeq International results. Tomer?

Welcome, everyone. We are here to recap 2024, a very volatile year in Israel, but a stable and strong year for Bezeq. It's great to see familiar faces and many people we have recently met in person in New York, London and other cities in Europe and in the U.S. We start on Slide 4. We are continuing to successfully implement our group strategy, which we presented to the market over 3 years ago. Fiber has been a key pillar in our strategy, and Bezeq is successfully leading the fiber revolution in Israel. We are near completion this year of our fiber project with over 90% of our projects already completed. We already have 32% take-up on the network and expect this to grow to at least 40% in the near term with continued ARPU growth. Yes is accelerating fiber growth, with 10% of the group's fiber subs today and supporting our group market share in retail broadband. This is -- this will be further illustrated if structural separation between Bezeq and yes is removed. Pelephone is leading the 5G revolution in Israel and benefiting from the positive contribution to ARPU. Bezeq International, still in its transformation process, focusing on the ICT and cloud services market with a successful new collective labor agreement signed in Q4. In 2024, we entered the electricity supply sector to create additional sources of growth, and the management teams here are actively working at complementary services and partnerships in other verticals. We continue to maintain a very strong balance sheet. And alongside upgrading our rating to AA this year, we also increased our dividend policy this quarter to 80% payout, reflecting more than 5% yield. Let's move to the next slide, Slide #5. This slide really reiterates the successful evolution of our strategy on our path to reaching our midterm target KPIs, including the completion of the fiber deployment this year, the migration from satellite TV to IP in 2026 and the transition to 5G. On Slide 6, we actually see the excellent visibility to achieving our midterm targets, and we are now increasing some of our midterm targets, expecting 2% annual growth in adjusted EBITDA and an increase of at least NIS 500 million in adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx. We also added a new financial target this quarter of 2% to 3% CAGR in core revenue. On Slide 7, we see the recap of 2024 where we delivered growth of 1.3% in our core revenue due to growth in Pelephone and Fixed-Line. Adjusted EBITDA was down slightly due to the decrease in telephony revenues resulting from the MOC decrease in tariffs and the impact of the war on roaming revenues. Q4 was excellent with adjusted EBITDA growth of almost 6% and adjusted net income growing at 23% year-over-year, positively impacted by the universal fund and the roaming rebound. We continued to grow in our strategic drivers, recording 43% increase in fiber take-up and 20% growth in 5G subscriber plans. We are experiencing a very rational regulatory environment with an emphasis on the hostile market and active ongoing efforts to remove the structural operation. Turning to Slide 8. Here you can see the key highlights of 2024. And after adjusting for the impact of the war on roaming revenue, core revenues are actually up 1.7% this year. And adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were down almost 2% and 3%, respectively. We'll turn to Slide #9, where you can really see how even in a year, with volatile geopolitical situation, our core business continued to perform and outperform. Total fiber subscribers as of today reached 850,000 with 2.64 million home passed, above our plan, and 5G subs plan reached 1.3 million. Yes ARPU from subscribers, which includes the TV and the fiber activity, reached NIS 185. Before I turn the call back to Tobi to talk about our financial results, I'd like to thank you on behalf of Nir, Ilan, myself and the rest of management for your professionalism, commitment and partnership and dedication over the past 4 years. You've been a great partner. And on this occasion, I would also like to welcome Yochai Benita, the new Group CFO. Yochai has been with the group as the CFO of Pelephone and yes for the past 3 years, and he knows the group extremely well. Tobi, please take it from here.

Thank you very much, Tomer. It's been great to work with you, the rest of the management team as well as with my wonderful finance division team at Bezeq. I'm proud of the work that we've done together in laying a solid, strategic and financial foundation for the long term and for all we have accomplished together. This will be my last call with the company as I turn to my new role as CFO of the Strauss Group. I look forward to watching Bezeq's continued success. Moving to Slide 10. We show a 1.3% increase in core revenues due to growth in Pelephone and Bezeq Fixed-Line. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were impacted by lower telephony revenues due to the Ministry of Communications' tariff reduction and the impact of the war on roaming revenues. In the next slide, we show fourth quarter results. Core revenues grew 2.5% year-over-year and profitability metrics were positively impacted by improved business results in Pelephone and the reversal of the provision for the universal fiber fund. Turning to the next slide, we show our annual operational metrics. I would like to highlight the 6% increase in our retail broadband ARPU, along with the continued increase in cellular ARPU and subscribers. Slide 13 shows our quarterly operational metrics. Broadband retail ARPU continued to grow with stable yes ARPU from subscribers due to fiber growth. The next slide highlights a further decrease of NIS 250 million or 5% in our net debt to approximately NIS 4.9 billion, while improving the coverage ratio from 2.5 in 2018 to 1.5x in 2024. This is the lowest coverage ratio since 2010. We remain committed to maintaining our high credit rating. Turning to the next slide. As mentioned, the Board of Directors updated its dividend policy from 70% to 80% payout. Our next dividend distribution, subject to approval by the Shareholders' General Assembly, will be approximately. NIS 0.14 per share with the payment date due on May 14. It is worth noting that Bezeq's dividend payments have increased about 20% per year since 2022. Moving to Slide 16. We show the group's guidance for 2025. In 2024, we met our targets, except for a 2% miss on adjusted EBITDA, mainly due to the impact of the war. Yet the implied adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx of NIS 1.97 billion was slightly higher than the implied guidance due to lower CapEx in 2024. For 2025, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA of NIS 3.7 billion, adjusted net profit of NIS 1.2 billion, CapEx of NIS 1.75 billion and fiber deployment of 2.9 million households. Turning to the next slide. We show our updated midterm targets. Let me highlight a few changes from last year. We have added core revenues' target growth of 2% to 3%, updated adjusted EBITDA compounded average growth rate to 2% and increase in adjusted EBITDA minus CapEx of NIS 500 million compared to the previous range of NIS 400 million to NIS 500 million. Lastly, we added a yes ARPU from subscribers' target of NIS 190 to NIS 195. Note that 2024 is the base year for all our targets. Moving to the next slide. We remain committed to our ESG program and targets. We are dedicated to strong corporate governance with policy in ethics and prevention of corruption, among others, both within the group and with our subsidiaries and suppliers. I will now turn the call over to Nir, who will share more detailed results from our Fixed-Line operations. Nir?

Thank you, Tobi. On the next slide, Bezeq Fixed-Line core revenue increased 1% to NIS 3.8 billion, mainly due to higher revenues from broadband services. Broadband retail fiber customers reached 546,000 today and ARPU rose 6.4% to NIS 133 in the first quarter. On the following slide, we show moderate decrease in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit in 2024, mainly due to lower telephony revenues resulting for the MOC tariff reduction in 2023. Turning to the next slide, we show growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit in the fourth quarter due to the reversal of the provision of the universal fiber fund as well as lower operating and salary expenses. Turning to the next slide. The fourth quarter saw 2% growth in broadband revenues despite a decrease in wholesale tariffs from use of the passive network. Moving to the next slide, we show the take-up trends. Q4 saw 38,000 retail fiber net adds and 13,000 wholesale fiber net adds. Turning to the next slide. We show continued fiber deployment and the result of our increased focus on take-up. Today, we have approximately 2.64 million home passed and over 850,000 active subscribers in our fiber networks today, resulting in continued growth of our take-up, which has reached 32%. The next slide shows continued revenue growth in transmission and data communication. Telephony revenues declined mainly due to the MOC tariff reduction in July 2023, and other revenues were impacted, lower revenues from infrastructure projects. On the next slide shows a 4% decrease in operating expenses due to lower subcontractor and employees expenses as well as lower interconnected fees resulting from a decrease in tariffs. Other expenses decreased due to a onetime provision of the future grant to employees recorded in 2023. With that, I will now turn the call to Ilan to discuss Pelephone and yes.

Thank you, Nir. Tobi, I'd like to join in on the good wishes already expressed by Tomer and wish you the best of luck in your new position. I would also like to congratulate Yochai on his appointment as Bezeq Group CFO; and [indiscernible] on his appointment as the new CFO of Pelephone and yes. Good luck to you both. Moving to the Slide 27. Pelephone posted its highest revenues from services in 7 years, reaching NIS 1.4 billion despite the impact of the war on roaming revenues, which is estimated at NIS 65 million for 2024. 5G subscriber plans continue to grow with 208,000 net adds during the year. Moving to the next slide. We show 5G subscriber plans reach approximately 1.3 million subscribers as of today. Subscribers on 5G plans amounted to 55% of postpaid subscribers. On the next slide, we show adjusted EBITDA increased 1.3% after adjusting for the impact of the war on roaming revenues. Adjusted EBITDA would have increased by 5%. Moving to the quarterly results on Slide 30. Revenues rose 8.5% due to higher roaming revenues compared to the corresponding quarter, which were impacted by the war and the continued growth in postpaid subscribers, including 5G subscriber plans. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit showed strong growth, mainly due to higher revenues and the reversal of the provision for the universal fiber fund. The next slide shows the Q4 key operational metrics. As seen, we recorded an additional increase in postpaid subscribers including 5G subscriber plans and decline in prepaid due to the impact of the war. ARPU rose 7.1% or NIS 3 year-over-year due to higher ARPU from cellular plans and roaming revenues. Turning to yes on Slide 32. We showed stable revenues for the fifth consecutive quarter. Revenues were impacted by increased competition and the war, mainly the non-billing of customers in the line of conflict estimated at NIS 20 million in 2024, partially offset by higher revenues from the TV and fiber bundle. We continued the migration from satellite to IP with over 473,000 IP customers today. Fiber continues to grow and we have now over 80,000 fiber subscribers as of today. Yes saw continued growth in IP-based TV subscribers, which increased 19% year-over-year. As of today, 84% of yes subscribers are watching TV through IP. Moving to the next slide. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were down in 2024, mainly due to the decrease in revenues. On the next slide, free cash flow in the fourth quarter was impacted by timing differences in working capital and higher CapEx. On Slide 35, we show yes Q4 key operational metrics. This quarter, we began providing ARPU from subscribers, which grew by NIS 4 year-over-year due to higher revenues from the TV and fiber bundle. We also recorded strong growth in fiber subscribers, which almost doubled year-over-year. With that, let me now turn the call back to Tobi.

Thanks, Ilan. Moving on to Bezeq International. Revenues and profitability metrics were impacted by lower consumer ISP revenues due to the MOC unified Internet regulatory reform as well as lower ILD revenues. The decrease was partially offset by higher ICT revenues from cloud and data center activities. In the fourth quarter, we reached an agreement for further employee retirement for the years 2025 through 2027, which will allow for further cost reduction at Bezeq International. On Slide 37, we show the annual results. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 11.1%, mainly due to lower revenues. Adjusted net profit rose 2% due to decrease in depreciation expenses. Moving to the next slide. The fourth quarter revenues continued to decline, but adjusted EBITDA was stable year-over-year, and free cash flow was positively impacted by timing differences in working capital, a decrease in CapEx and lower employee severance payments compared to Q4 of 2023. Turning to the last slide. We are satisfied with our business and financial performance and resilience in 2024, which was a challenging year for Israel and the region. We remain focused on executing on our strategy throughout our group's core activities and key growth drivers: robust fiber take-up in Bezeq and yes, continued growth in Bezeq's data business as well as consistent growth in 5G subscriber plans at Pelephone. Finally, I would also like to mention that Bezeq will be attending the Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference on March 25 in London. With that, I will open the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from David Kaplan.

David Kaplan from Psagot Securities based in Tel Aviv. A quick question, I guess, first for Tomer on the regulation. You mentioned removal of structural separation. It seems that currently, the regulatory environment is a bit benign. Can you talk to us a little bit about what's going on and what's being discussed and what is in the pipeline for the next year to 2 years?

Sure. And thanks, David. Look, just recapping regulatory comments, I made some last year. We've seen a very rational regulatory approach with growing competition in the market over the past 3 years and especially as it relates to telecom infrastructure, both on Fixed-Line and cellular. We see a better approach over the past 2 years. It started with the removal of structural separation between the Fixed-Line, the infrastructure, and the ISP, which is now mostly almost fully merged with 90% of Bezeq Fixed-Line infrastructure customers have a unified service with ISP, and that separation is basically long gone. And in the past 2 years, we've also seen rational approach to the wholesale market pretty consistent with what we see in Europe with less intervention in the active wholesale market and more focused on the passive one, the same as you saw in the hearings in RFI published by the MOC in the past 12 months. As it relates to structural separation, which is really part of this evolution of the more rational market, consistent with what we see in Europe, 9 months ago, the Ministry of Communications announced after many years of not touching really that topic that he is formally reviewing removal of structural separation as part of the 2024 work plan. We are in formal active discussion with the ministers around the topic. It's too early to put timelines on that, so we're not putting any timelines. We also announced a couple of times that we are in discussions with our unions at both Bezeq and yes, who both understand both the union, the employees and the company, why it's the right thing to do both for the companies and for the consumers. We can have one service, unified service, one customer service and obviously potentially slightly lower price as you usually get with bundled. The regulators understand that and we will update the market as soon as we have more updates on the topic.

Great. I appreciate that. And just one comment, I guess -- or I guess question about the guidance that you gave. It seems that the guidance was relatively in line with where consensus already was for the coming years. How much of that is related to competitive pressures? How much of that is related to geopolitical machinations? And how much of that is related to the mandated regulatory continued reduction in interconnect fees and such? And if you were to neutralize some of those effects, where do you think -- do you think the guidance could actually be above what you've given?

So let me break down some of the comments you know when you made cause you know the market extremely well. First, our core revenues do not include interconnect fees. So when we guide for core revenue growth, it doesn't include the interconnect fees, the legacy ISP at Bezeq International and telephony. All these together are roughly 10% of revenue. So core revenue excludes interconnect, and interconnect fee is [ awash ]. It doesn't really impact the bottom line or EBITDA. So we take into account really all the drivers and the KPIs we mentioned around fiber, 5G and TV when we look at our EBITDA growth and CapEx reduction, which predominantly comes from -- by end of this year, we'll finish the fiber project. We are done from the satellite which you'll see in OpEx next year. And we are reducing our employees across Bezeq International and Fixed-Line as part of our union agreements in both companies. This will come into effect this year and more into effect next year. That all comes into the midterm plan. In terms of this year, unlike last year, we did take into account some gradual recovery and some war impact given the volatility, the geopolitical volatility. But the impact on the business is not material at all. We also have some events this year like the elimination of the discount of the 5G spectrum at Pelephone. That's going to increase OpEx by NIS 40 million to NIS 50 million. So this is a one-off impact compared to last year. And that's part of the -- sorry?

Tender also.

And we have also a big tender with the government that may come later this year, that impacts this year. But we've been pretty cautious on giving guidance to the market this year, but we feel -- we stand very confident behind it. Last year, as you all know, when we budgeted in early 2024, we did not take into account full year. I don't think anyone did. So we were more cautious and calculated this time on that front.

Thank you, David. Next question, from Tavy Rosner. Tavy?

I only have two short ones, please. First one around regulation. So you mentioned structural separation. What else is in the pipeline from the MOC perspective? I mean we saw headlines about passive regulation for wholesale Internet. What else would we be looking at in 2024?

So as it relates to the group, really the two or three important elements that are on the table of the MOC in the coming year or two, one is really spectrum fees that are up but potentially go down when we are in discussion with the MOC. We understand the needs of the cellular market to get spectrum to where they were last year. So that's number one. Number two, as you mentioned, is the wholesale rates. This -- there was an RFI, a request for information that was published by the MOC last month that's evaluating whether there is a need to even regulate active wholesale prices which, as I mentioned before, very consistent with what you see in Europe, and you know it well. There was a reduction in early 2024 in the passive wholesale rate so we do not expect additional significant reduction there or at all. And the last one is really structural separation, which I mentioned, in active work stream for us. We do not believe this should continue to exist. And we are in the formal dialogue with the MOC that, hopefully, will yield results in the near term.

And then lastly, on the competitive dynamics, I guess, in the wireless market, cellular. Do you feel that all the players are into a more-for-more aspect? They want to just try to get as much as possible and not really compete on pricing these days?

You want to take it?

Yes, I think one thing I'll mention on that, and you guys, feel free to add. But look, I think what you've seen over the past probably 2 or 3 years is a rational pricing environment with rational players. Competition is high. The prices for telco services in Israel are still low, so a lot of upside there. But there's still competition. I don't think there's a lot of shift between market shares both in the Fixed-Line and definitely not in the wireless sector. Although Pelephone now is #2 in the market, I think net-net, over the years you don't see major shift in market share. 5G helped with ARPU but slowly, gradual, because there's still pretty significant competition. It's a 4 significant player market and 2 or 3 additional smaller ones. So that's still healthy competition but with gradual rising ARPU. Pelephone rose this quarter versus last year by NIS 3 and over the past 2 years, net, excluding everything, by NIS 2. So that's not bad.

I'll say there is a healthy competition in all 3 segments. In cellular, there's 9 players. So there's still competition also. Of course, in TV, all over the world. And of course, in Israel, there is 5 players in Israel, only Israeli companies, but there is more competition from foreign companies, and of course, in fiber. So it's a healthy competition. And we believe it will stay like that. And we -- looking at Pelephone, if we talk about 5G, we are moving customers from 4G plans to 5G and trying to take the ARPU up.

Great. That's all for me. And I wanted to wish Tobi best of luck with your next challenges and adventures.

Thank you very much, Tavy. See you around. Next question is from Ondrej from UBS. Ondrej?

Ondrej here from UBS. Also best wishes to you, Tobi, and best of luck to Yochai.

Thank you.

I want to touch upon the guidance, please. So I guess primarily around your adjusted EBITDA guidance which kind of, off the bat, doesn't make much sense to me because, number one, you are kind of now giving us guidance on core revenues, right, which should be growing at 2%, 3%. So these are usually, I would say, if I look at where the growth is coming from, and these are pretty profitable, so the fiber business primarily. But then also, as you guys already spoke about in terms of what should drive the profitability going forward, it is union agreements, it is things like the satellite shutdown, et cetera. So all these things should be improving profitability. You are, at the same time, you finished '24 with EBITDA guidance -- sorry, EBITDA margin of 42% roughly. You are guiding for that margin to improve. But at the same time, and given all that I said, you are still guiding for EBITDA growth -- or adjusted EBITDA growth kind of below what you are guiding for on the revenue side. So I just wanted to understand what the reason for that is and whether taking all of this into account, the adjusted EBITDA CAGR is probably quite conservative. So that is one area of the consensus I wanted to kind of challenge you a bit on. And the second question, more on the CapEx side, so the state of the CapEx to sales ratio. And I presume this is a '27 target is 16% at the bottom. So just looking at your industry peers, that would still appear to be pretty high given that you are already ending the -- or will have ended the fiber campaign, which is usually the most CapEx-intensive part of any incumbent business. You're at the end of the 5G or approaching the end of the 5G upgrade cycle. So why would not the ratio be safely below that into the midterm? That would be my second question.

I'll start with the EBITDA, and I'll let Tobi also touch CapEx. We are guiding to 2% to 3% growth in core revenues and 2% CAGR on EBITDA on average, right, for the next -- for the midterm, which is the next 3 to 5 years. Core revenues excludes two very profitable declining profit items such as telephony and ISP, both very high-margin businesses. So when you think about the blend, that explains exactly your question, okay, one-to-one. So right, the noncore revenues are less 10% and declining quickly from the revenues, but it was very profitable revenue streams. And that's the impact -- that's the delta you see between these numbers in the midterm. The major OpEx item that are being pulled out of the business, putting aside ARPU growth and subscriber growth, is really satellite and employees that you will see run rate full year in 2026, right, because the end of the satellite will basically happen in Q1 2026. So the major OpEx item will be pulled out only end of Q1 2026. You see it really impacting yes OpEx in 2026 full year. You'll see almost 300 employees going out of the Bezeq Fixed-Line business, part of the union agreement end of this year, which flows into 2026 as well and a few other very important items and part of our drivers. But that kind of, I think, answers your question both on the main OpEx items and the explanation between the delta of 2% to 3% growth. We also have salaries still tied to CPI and stuff like that, that are impacting our OpEx. But we are working on efficiencies and AI projects across the group, which should also support this OpEx reduction as well, non-headcount OpEx reduction across the group. Do you want to touch the CapEx question?

Sure. On CapEx, we said before, and we have now guided to see 2025 with NIS 1.75 billion, which is roughly the same level we had before. But within this year, as we move along, we will start to see a gradual decline especially as we complete the fiber deployment and reach 2.9 million households. But the first full year where we will see that decline is going to be 2026. And that's going to be a gradual decline, not a full decline, because we still have some CapEx going into growth areas such as 5G, Pelephone that will continue for some time, plus the streamers that we need to get to allow for the full transition at yes. We are going down, Ondrej, remember, from 20% CapEx to sales now to the range of, at the beginning, going to be 18%, then 17%, then 16%. We are not calling for a specific percentage for a specific year. But take into account that at the same time, revenues are coming down -- total revenues, not core revenues, but total revenues as a result of interconnect fees reduction, and that results in a higher CapEx sales ratio. That's the mathematic calculation.

If I may follow up with each of you. So on the -- maybe just a follow-up on some of the cost items or specifically the subcontractor costs, which obviously have been up quite a bit as a result of the fiber campaign. So if I just look historically, that's kind of something that's grown by about NIS 100 million over the past, say, 2 years. Is the level that we should think of going forward similar to the one that we saw in the past? Or is there something that should kind of have the subcontractor costs still above or significantly above, say, NIS 100 million per year? So that would be one kind of follow-up on the OpEx side. And then maybe, Tobi, just on CapEx. So you guys have clearly achieved more homes passed than you initially guided for with actually even less CapEx than you, I think, initially guided for. So it would be interesting to just hear from you how you actually achieve that?

Thank you. So for the first question, on subcontractor costs. The ones you are referring to are the cost of actually connecting households to our fiber network because the cost of deploying are mostly capitalized. And those cost of connection of households are going to come down over time because although there are still people without fiber and now they are moving to fiber for the first time from copper, and we will continue to see that as a cost in our OpEx, but as we move along, there will be more churn from different players that they already come with the fiber connection. So we don't have to spend again that subcontractor cost. So over time -- we are not guiding specifically to a certain amount, but that should go down over time over the years. As for the second question on the CapEx. Yes, part of the answer is what you just mentioned. We've been able to achieve our deployment goals on fiber at lower cost than originally expected. We have become more and more efficient here. But to be fully open with you, we have also had some timing differences in CapEx payments that shifts from one year to the other. And that's also a part of the answer. So we will be -- some of the -- you will see some of those components in 2025. Yet, as you've seen in our guidance, we are not increasing the capital for 2025.

Understood. Tobi, best of luck to you again.

Thank you very much. If there are no further questions at this time, I would like to thank you all for taking the time to join us today. Should you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations department. Thank you, and good luck.