Camil Alimentos S.A. (CAML3) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. Welcome to Camil's video conference to discuss the results of the third quarter of 2024. Present here today are Mr. Luciano Quartiero, Director, President; Flavio Vargas, CFO and IR Officer; and the company's Investor Relations team. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At the end, we will open for questions from analysts and investors only. We would like to emphasize that any forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call related to Camil's business outlook, projections and financial and operating goals are beliefs and assumptions from the company's management as well as information currently available. These may involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions as they refer to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors must understand that such general economic industry conditions and other operating factors may affect Camil's performance and lead to results that differ substantially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. We will start the presentation with Mr. Quartiero, followed by Flavio's presentation, and at the end, we will open for a 15-minute Q&A. Thank you.

Hello, welcome to the comments on the results of the third quarter ending in November 2024. On Slide 2, we highlight the categories of operation and the main indicators for the quarter. Our total net revenue for the period was BRL 3.1 billion, an increase of approximately 3% over the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to BRL 196 million, down by 21% from third quarter of '23 with a margin of 6.3%. In volumes, we saw a reduction of 7% year-on-year and also 9% sequentially, mainly attributed to lower volumes in grains. We will go into these results into more details in the next slides. Now moving on to Slide 3. As for Brazil's operating highlights, we start with a high turnover segment made up of grains and sugar. We had lower volumes of grains in the period, justified by the reduction in purchases by retailers in third quarter of '24. Historically, we often see a reduction in sales when rice prices are lower, and we also see less seasonal sales as we approach the end of the year. In sugar, we achieved higher volumes in the sequential and annual comparison, due to exports made in third quarter of '24. In regards to retail, we achieved higher domestic sales volumes, but we still face a challenging scenario in the category, in terms of profitability. In the high value segment, year-on-year, we saw volume growth of 11%, driven by all the products in the segment. Sequentially, we saw a 5% drop in volumes due to lower sales in coffee, partially offset by growth in fish. Moving on to each business line, we continue to show good profitability in the pasta category, and we remain confident in its growth through the launch of Camil pasta and other growth avenues coming from Santa Amália. As for coffee, we recorded growth in sales volumes in the category year-on-year, with our strategy of growing sales of the União brand. The launch of União's gourmet coffees also marks the expansion of our portfolio, increasing the added value of the category and further strengthening our presence. As for the cookies category, we posted annual growth in volumes and we continue with our plan to improve profitability and sales. Regarding fish, we saw growth in volumes due to the seasonality of the category in the last 2 quarters of the year, when our customers begin to increase their stock levels to prepare for lent in Brazil. Internationally, despite the drop in volumes, we saw growth in prices in the category, which boosted the segment's results in the period. Also noteworthy in the period was the announcement in November of 2024 of our first step towards entering the Paraguayan rice market. Q2PY S.A. completed the acquisition of 100% of the capital stock of Rice Paraguay and, indirectly, 80% of the capital stock of Villa Oliva Rice. As part of the agreement, Villa Oliva's rural properties will be transferred to Q2PY, while Camil Alimentos will take control of Villa Oliva's industrial assets. The operation aims to align with Camil's strategic plan, which prioritizes the management of operations without the ownership of rural properties. We are still in negotiations and we will keep the market informed of the next steps of the transaction. With a more challenging dynamics in Brazil in the short term, we understand that we are taking the necessary steps to prepare ourselves and bolster our growth for the coming years. We are gradually working on gaining scale, improving customer service and strengthening our brands. Now I'll hand over to Flavio to comment on the financial results for the period. Go ahead, Flavio, please.

Hello, everyone. Moving on to the financial highlights of the period, as Luciano mentioned, our net revenue stood at BRL 3.1 billion, up by approximately 3%. Cost of goods sold grew by 6%, mainly due to the increase in grains in the high turnover segment in Brazil and the high value of fish and coffee. As a result, our gross profit stood at BRL 534 million with a margin of 17% in the quarter. SG&A by net revenue in the period was flat with a 9% increase in nominal SG&A in Brazil. We saw an increase in freight expenses, personnel, consumables, IT expenses and some nonrecurring effects recorded in G&A. These effects totaled BRL 35 million and refer to fines for supplier contract terminations, other contingencies and lawsuits. International SG&A fell by 4%, mainly due to the reduction of sales in Uruguay and Chile. In other operating income and expenses, we recorded a positive BRL 16 million in the quarter, of which BRL 10.4 million refer to monetary restatement of taxes paid as a result of the company's lawsuit. This lawsuit refers to Camil's right to recover the monetary restatement on the taxes paid for the repetition of the amounts of corporate income tax, social contribution on net sales, social security contributions PIS and COFINS that were levied on the Selic rate applied to its tax overpayments and judicial deposits, as well as the recognition of the right of a refund of the amounts unduly paid in recent years. Excluding this revenue and the other nonrecurring effects of G&A that we've discussed, EBITDA for the period totaled BRL 196 million, with a margin of 6.3%. Without adjustments, we reached BRL 171 million in EBITDA in the third quarter of '24 with a margin of 5.5%. Slide 7 shows the sequential variation. It's worth noting that the company had a year in which the first half saw high rice prices coupled with retailers high stockpiling in the period, which makes the sequential comparative basis stronger than the previous 3 months. Moving on to debt. The company's net debt stood at BRL 4.1 billion with net debt to EBITDA for the last 12 months at 4.2x in the quarter. It's also important to note that our covenant reading is always annual with the next one referring to the end of February 2025. We always have a relevant working capital seasonality throughout the quarters, more specifically, in rice. As such, the first quarters of the year usually see greater cash consumption, while the fourth quarter usually sees a release in working capital, and consequently, an improvement in leverage. With regard to new funding, we would highlight the conclusion in June 2024 of the 14th issue of debentures backed by CRA. The issue consists of simple debentures, in three series, totaling BRL 650 million. CapEx for the quarter totaled BRL 84 million, with investments in maintenance CapEx and in the new Cambaí grain plant, located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, as discussed in our statement on transactions with related parties, we made an advance payment of BRL 199 million for the new acquisition in Paraguay, according to the details of the transaction already covered by Luciano. In closing, we are working hard to maximize our efficiency and gradually grow in scale and profitability. We are confident that we are on the right track to take the company to the next level. And now we will be available for the Q&A in case you have any questions. Thank you all very much.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bruno Tomazetto from Itau BBA.

I have two questions here. First about that Selic dynamic. We've had a more frequent discussion about being more aggressive in allocation of inventory and what should be adjusted especially -- now this discussion has been reviewed at the end of '24. But I recall what we talked about at the end of 2023. The question is, when do you think we should start seeing a new seasonality for the industry going forward? And this is probably more related to the retailers' seasonality and what is the company doing to mitigate this effect? And my second question is whether you can elaborate a bit more on that profitability per region? And what you could tell us about future expectations in your main lines of business?

Bruno, and thank you for your questions. I think to answer your first question related to the macro landscape. In fact, it's a very challenging scenario. And I think the concern in terms of working capital due to high interest rates, I mean, current and expected that increase, but more specifically about grains, in addition to the macro scenario and our clients' concerns in terms of working capital, our dynamic is a bit different when compared to the past 2 years -- in the past few years, if -- let me give a step back. Our fourth quarter is usually weaker mostly due to grains and also due to the harvesting of rice that occurs between February and March. So there is an expectation of price decreases. So clients reduce purchase to the minimum level possible due to the constant drop that usually occurs in this period. But in the last few years, excluding the last 2 months, which I'm about to explain, in the last few years, that movement was mostly concentrated in the fourth quarter. And November and December, there is some expectation, but prices start falling at the end of December and early January. This year, things are totally different than our past history. There was a delay in planting because of the rains in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a lot of rain, and then there was the event in the beginning of last year, and then we had the displacement from the first of the second quarter. And now there was a drop in rice prices that started in November. So therefore, the fourth quarter, that usually is weak and the lower volume of purchases from retailers was anticipated to the end of October and early November, so that is the major impact that we see reflected in this quarter. It was like an anticipation of the fourth quarter. So harvesting will start earlier this year, I mean climate was favorable. There will be higher yields. Therefore, harvesting will start sooner. So we may have in anticipation of the first quarter because usually, the trigger for clients to replenish their inventories would be like the -- depending on the price of the season. I mean, so the common price, I mean, shouldn't happen at the beginning. So probably, we will have a regular year, we will have a very strong first quarter in terms of grains, and the fourth quarter will be weaker, so according to plan. So the dynamics now is a bit different than usual, but it's also boosted by the macro scenario that you talked about and that I also referred to at the beginning of my presentation. Now in terms of an overall view of the profitability of the categories, I mean, your question was very open. But I will try to be brief and give you a very quick snapshot of every segment. Grains, with lower volumes of grain, profitability was below what we expected. So we are now anticipating that for the half of -- the middle of the third question. I mean, sugar, no major changes, fish, pasta, everything is according to plan, but we can certainly exploit more. These categories. Coffee is a challenging scenario because of prices, profitability remains low. Cookies, there was a slight decrease in profitability. So I think this was just a very brief overview on each category.

Next question is from Guilherme Guttilla from BTG Pactual.

I just have one question. I would just like to get a better understanding about the price dynamics and the high turnover. The average price of Camil dropped sequentially, but the price of rice had a slight increase in sugar. We understand the export of sugar may have had an impact. But if you could give me some more light about what things -- I mean, how things are performing, I would appreciate it?

Okay, Guilherme. I think the first topic, once we get grains with this drop in volumes, we have the mix because turnover is made out of grains and sugar. So there is a mix. In the mix of the grains category, the volumes were lower and I have a higher volume of exported sugar. So this already generates one impact. Price of rice started to fall in November. There is a slight impact of that drop in prices. From October and November, we had some updates close to BRL 119, BRL 120 per bag. And the price was declining throughout November and December. So by December 31, it was around BRL 99 and BRL 100. Therefore, there was a mix pack, part of that drop is reflected in high turnover. The other part is mix and a smaller portion refers to rice prices. And I would like to take advantage of your question and tell you about what we expect to see in terms of rice prices. When we look at the past 2 years, average rice price was around BRL 95 to BRL 100. I mean this year, they've ended now, there's season year, the estimate is that it should be around BRL 110. Therefore, when we look forward to the next season, our outlook today is that the average for the next crop season should be around BRL 100. This may not be consistent considering that the crop season will be 14% higher in terms of yield when compared to the previous year. So the previous season, and I will just give you ballpark figures. That was 10,600,000 tons. The year before that was around at 11.2% 11.1%. And this year, we expect to see 12%. So with a higher harvest, how come that price impact will not be so high? Is that because Brazil expects to export more at the current level. So Brazil, in a way, is more connected to the international market. So prices are more correlated. Therefore, there will be higher exports, and this will allow for higher drops in prices. So the average year-on-year is a drop of 10%. There should be moments when it will be below that, especially during the harvest period. But this is our expectation in regards to prices.

Next question from Pedro Fonseca from XP.

I have two questions. The first is about demand. Could you share with us what you see in terms of sell-out dynamics and still about demand, I mean, given this more challenging scenario, I would just like to understand how the company sees the capacity to transfer prices in 2025 in the high turnover or high-value categories. We see an increase in commodity prices particularly coffee, which is drawing more attention, and also increases in wheat and even rice, in the high turnover segment. So I would just like to understand how do you see the transfer of prices in an environment where demand should be a bit lower. This is my first question. The second question is about your capital structure. The company recently had a new issue. I would just like to understand whether there is anything related to liability management. We know that deleveraging should be more apparent in the fourth quarter. But this year, we should experience higher interest rates. So I would like to know whether you're looking at any liability management or you're thinking about any other measures aiming at capital structure?

Well, thank you for your questions. I think the sellout dynamics, given what we've seen and the information we have access to, we don't see any major structural change. In fact, we see this impact from rice, as I said before, I mean, because rice for us, still grains. I mean 50% of it is in Brazil. I mean the high turnover category is mostly in Brazil. Therefore, I have no concerns about sellout today. Everything we're looking at is pretty much aligned. And it's certainly more related to the focus of everyone on working capital. Now in terms of our capacity to transfer prices in this current scenario, I mean, in some categories, the transfer is easier because it's part of the dynamics of that category of prices to go up or down and some other categories, transfer prices is a bit slower. So every category is different. So every time you see a very sudden move, theoretically, it would be easier than smaller movements to increase prices. The example of coffee you gave that had a spike in prices. Just to illustrate the point, in October in [ Arabica ], we have about BRL 1,500 for a bag. And so today, prices are much higher. Throughout December, we practiced 20% increase in prices. And in January, we are increasing another 30%. In moments like that, transfer occurs. It is still talking about coffee. What do we see in relation to retailing? There is a certain uncertainty. How do I say this? I mean whether the price is going beyond what it should or not, there is a pressure in terms of product offering between March and April. And throughout the coming months, the expectation will be better in view of what will happen in the next coffee crop season, and so things may remain where they are. Therefore, everybody is having a more cautious approach. It's not to say whether we believe the prices will be higher or not, you just have to be cautious because people don't know where the market is going to. There is a stock reduction due to the uncertainty of what could come ahead. I mean the second concern when it comes to coffee is whether there will be any impact in consumption because we are saying that coffee in the supermarket will come to BRL 50 to BRL 55 per kilo of coffee. These are very, very high prices. We've never seen that before. Therefore, we don't know whether there will be an impact in consumption. So this is a very specific dynamics related to coffee. So in this scenario, price transfer could be more fluid or simpler. Wheat, there was a price increase. I mean, this price increase will be reflected now in January. We are not expecting any major volatility in wheat prices throughout the year, at least this is what we feel. This is a small increase. I think we are talking about a 4% increase in prices. So this is a more difficult increase, and it takes longer. Usually, this category takes longer to promote price transfers. So this will probably occur in the next 2 months. It tends to happen, but it's a slower move and it's more difficult move. Referring to grains, increases continue to happen. Going back to the example of rice, all of that lower price from BRL 120 to BRL 100. I mean it was a price thing. Therefore, in particularly rice and beans, the transfer due to the dynamics of the category, they continue to happen as it did in the past. But the major concern with the inflation and how consumers are allocating their purchasing power, this has been a major concern in the entire industry on the part of industries and retailers. Now about capital structure, I will then turn the floor over to Flavio.

Pedro, thank you for your question. In terms of capital structure, if we look at different perspectives, whenever we look at the scenario until the end of the year, and we ended the quarter at 4.2x net debt over EBITDA, in the fourth quarter, we also see a cash generation due to working capital release. And because of that, we are able to have a reduction in our EBITDA, net EBITDA over -- EBITDA over net debt. And so our leverage will be lower and it will be pretty much in line with our covenants. Now when we look at it, certainly, there is dynamics that is part of the business, and we see it taking place. This makes us feel more comfortable in terms of what we should expect until the end of the year. But looking at the end of the year, I mean, all of the variables that impact our capital structure will make us be more attentive. We want to have a positive operating result and in view of a possible increase in interest rates. The service of the debt should increase. And in turn, this will diminish our possibility to deleverage, but we will continue to manage our investment in CapEx, we will be very rigorous. We would just do whatever is necessary and what has already been committed. We want to be very careful with our working capital management to allow for working capital seasonality. But, on a practical note, I think that if you look throughout the year of 2025 and even February '26, I don't expect any major deleveraging move, particularly because of the pressure from the financial burden that will remain high until the end of the year. But when you refer to liability management, liquidity and debt management, we are always very active in the market. Last year, when we saw an opportunity, the company went to market, we issue -- we had 2 issues of CRA, and we also conducted many -- several bilateral transactions with our partnering banks. And this is part of our day-to-day operation. We are always trying to get ahead of the market. In our last issues given the change in legislation, they're restricted the offering of CRAs. This helped us in terms of the demand because there was a scarcity of securities that have a tax benefit in Camil ended up being benefited because we had a different access to the market or our access was differentiated. So therefore, we continue to have assets in the market. We will look at opportunities and we'll try to anticipate things so that we don't have to rush at the last minute.

Our next question comes from Tiago Harduim from Citi.

There are 2 points I would like to exploit with you. The first one being the international scenario, if you could tell me a bit about your local dynamics and the performance per geography per country. And naturally, where do you see opportunities and challenges, where you think you it would pay off to invest? And the second point is a follow-up on the sugar segment, you already talked about it, but I would just like to get a little bit more details related to exports. That's a line that helps your operating leverage of the business. Therefore, if you can tell me what is the share of that? And how do you see the profitability coming from sugar and how exports can help your operating leverage? And how we could also see this additional activity, meaning exports going through the fourth quarter and into 2025?

Tiago, thank you. Thank you for your questions Speaking about the International segment, the dynamic of countries remain positive. Uruguay is performing quite well, both in the rice operation and also the operations [ we did there ]. We are not talking much about it by the integration of La Abundancia with our sales operation in Mexico and Uruguay has been concluded. We capture all the expected local synergies and we added a positive synergy to the rice category. Our rice sales and our leadership has become consolidated because we managed to take advantage of the distribution that we have locally. It's a small operation. And in fact, I haven't talked much about it, but we've been very successful in that geography. Referring to exports, there is always some volatility of volumes sold. But in Uruguay, what matters is the closing of the year. We will end the year with lower inventory. There will be a lower sales volume in the fourth quarter because this is a rice that is available to be sold from this season, there will be a higher offering of products next year. So the way the crop season is growing in Brazil is not growing in the same -- at the same level, but it's growing in Uruguay. So we will have more available rice to sell next year. We also expect a slight drop in prices or a drop similar to that of Brazil in terms of international prices. In Uruguay, the outlook for next year is very good. And performance, as I mentioned at the beginning, has been very, very good. Chile. In Chile, we had exceptional profitability at the beginning, and now it went back to normal. Chile managed to take advantage of the origination of Paraguayan rice. And this is a synergy we will have once Camil takes over the operation in Paraguay. So I have no other comment because Chile, I mean, is working like clockwork, and they are really delivering growth in volumes. In Peru, we had some bad years. And from 3 to 4 quarters onwards, we've seen a gradual recovery process that recovery continues to take place. Profitability is not yet at historical levels. But every single quarter, we've managed to give small baby steps towards that recovery. So the trajectory remains good despite the internal challenges in Peru. In Ecuador, we had last year very good profitability because of increasing prices. That's when Ecuador had to import rice. And now throughout this year, there was a significant drop in rice prices and this affected profitability because there, they have two crop seasons. And the company has to position itself throughout these two crop seasons. And as there was a drop in prices during a few months that hurts the profitability of the company and that more expensive rice is now over down the next harvest season is beginning. Therefore, when we expected a high drop in prices. Now this is now in the past, and we are resuming our historical profitability levels now. So this is a very summarized view of our performance in the countries. The company remains very optimistic with Paraguay. Our growth outlook is very promising. It will take a few months until we conclude the reorganization and then we will be able to get the assets, but we are very optimistic with this move. Now referring to sugar. We have another expert that is already in place with Raizen. This partnership has been very good as it has always been in the past. So it remains very solid, despite this diversity and profitability. Now we are beginning to negotiate what we will export in the next few quarters. This has been something that helped the company to offset the difficulties we encountered in the domestic market. But I would like to emphasize that the focus of the company in sugar is the domestic market. Therefore, exports can help us. Profitability is low, but the major focus of the company is to reorganize that so we can resume competitiveness and regain the space that we lost in the past few years. This is a constant discussion in the company. But the macro scenario is still playing against us. Therefore, we should expect some changes coming in the next few quarters, but I would like to clarify the experts. I mean, it's something that is helping us, but it's not our main focus. I hope I have answered your question.

Our next question comes from Laura Hirata from Santander.

I would just like to hear about 2 topics that you already mentioned before. I would like to get a better understanding about demand, but international demand for rice. We've seen that you had a better crop season in Brazil and Uruguay and major producers resuming their exports. How do you see the issue of demand in terms of rice exports? And how you think this should affect international prices? Also going back to the high value, how do you see competition? You said before, you talk before about the outlook for profitability and price increases, but what about volumes, especially in pasta and coffee, we are seeing well-capitalized competitors despite a scenario with challenging costs. I just want to have a better understanding about how you see the competition scenario at the moment related to market share gain, if you see any movement in this direction. So these are my questions.

Thank you for your questions, Laura. And as I briefly said before, Brazil is more connected to the international market. This stems from changes in the end of import taxes that some countries had, but then they were eliminated during the first year of the pandemic and also throughout the following year, when prices begin to go up, especially food prices that had some protection tariffs. This scenario still remains and this certainly opened new markets for Brazil and Mercosul as well. So as you were saying, and I also mentioned it before, Brazil's production will be higher, in Uruguay will be higher, in Argentina as well, and the same thing goes for Paraguay. So as a block, we need to export more to countries outside South America or countries from the block. With the exchange rate at the current levels, especially in Brazil, this will help us in terms of exports. And -- but if the exchange rate was around 5 rather than the current 6, internal prices would have to drop at the necessary level so that we could export the surplus. So right now, despite a growing season or a higher season, the exchange rate will help prices not to drop as much and it will help us in terms of exports. In the international scenario, there was a country that had prohibited exports, but that was eliminated in the second half, and this caused an impact on the international prices. Prices were down by 10% to 15%. I mean it fell by 10%, but we believe that it will go down another 5%. So this is the expectation we have. So therefore, we do not anticipate any major drops in international prices that could probably affect our international operations. And this led to this dynamic that will help us distribute the surplus rice from the block. And with that, I think I answered your first question. Now referring to competition in the high-value segment, like in all of the segments in high turnover competition is always very fierce. There are always players, that are more or less funded. There are always players that practice prices that we don't know how they got to those prices. All categories have idle capacity, and they try to gain market share. So this is a very strong dynamic in all categories. Now speaking about each one of them, coffee, November and December, when prices started to go up and I mentioned that the clients are being more cautious. But we delivered growth year-on-year in coffee. Cookies. Also, I mean, coffee grows more like cookies, we are not growing as much, but we continue to deliver growth. In pasta, we are also delivering growth in volumes year-on-year. Therefore, gradually we are gaining momentum. It's not easy. It's a gorilla work at the POS. But I think our strength is the fact that we are very close and have a very good relationship with our customers in the high turnover category. I mentioned a few quarters ago that the company is very much focused on capturing synergies between the different categories together with our customers. So we are exploiting more categories and clients that buy 3 or 4 categories, but do not buy all of them. Therefore, we are focused on increasing the profitability and also capturing synergies between categories. And I think that with that I also answered that question. I think fish, I think I left that aside. Fish, year-on-year, we also delivered growth in the period.

Our next question comes from [ Eduardo Lazzaretti from GP Invest ]. He says, could you please give me more details about the reasons why you saw a drop in the gross margin year-on-year.

How can I answer that? I think there are 2 effects here. Clearly, as this quarter, volumes are lower and there is a lower cost dilution. This has an effect on our margin due to the reduction in commercial costs. There are some categories that on the industrial side, the unit cost is more or less sensitive to the volume produced. Grains a bit less in some other categories like coffee, cookies and pasta, these are more sensitive categories. So this is just part of that explanation. In our categories like -- this will happen in coffee. It already happened in the rice category throughout the past few years, there is a mathematical effect in the way the price has calculated. Raw material, I mean, I'll just give you ballpark figures. Raw material on average account for 70% of our sales price. But when you take a raw material like rice that went from BRL 45 to BRL 100, this weight of that 70% gets closer to 77%. And coffee that will have an increase now, there will be another 30% increase. The effect is similar because raw material has a higher representation when compared to the sale price. Therefore here, we have a mix of the mathematical effect of the higher value of raw materials. And certainly, there is the issue of lower profitability of the company because the company is not operating at the historical levels of 10%. Therefore, part of that is the effect of the lower profitability that we've had. But thank you for your question.

The Q&A session is now concluded. We would like to thank you all for joining us today, and we wish you a very good day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]