Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 10, 2021

NASDAQ US Information Technology Software conference_presentation 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Mark Delaney

analyst
#1

This is Mark Delaney, and I cover the auto and industrial tech sector at Goldman Sachs. I'm very pleased to be hosting Cerence's CEO, Sanjay Dhawan; and CFO, Mark Gallenberger. As many of you know, Cerence is an industry-leading provider of AI-powered voice recognition and speech software technology and was historically the automotive business of Nuance. We will be taking questions via the webcast page later in the session, so please submit those, and we'll get to as many as we can. Sanjay, Mark, thank you both for joining us today.

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#2

Thank you. Good morning, Mark, and good morning to everyone else.

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#3

Thank you, Mark.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#4

Jumping right into the Q&A. Cerence is a leader in voice AI technology. And about 54% of cars have your technology put on them in terms of new car sales. Can you talk about what Cerence is typically providing on those cars?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#5

Sure. So we provide the conversational AI platform that enables interaction for the driver inside the car. When you are in -- driving in the car, it's great to have your touch screens and knobs and buttons and so on and so forth. But there is a clear trend that voice and voice-based interactions are becoming more and more important. And the reason is very simple that when you are driving, your hands are supposed to be on steering wheel. Eyes are supposed to be on the road. And any distraction of playing with your touch screen or playing with your knobs is not a safer way of interacting with the car. So voice becomes the most important way. It's -- frankly speaking, it's great to have your smart speakers with Alexa or other capabilities. And great to have voice on your phone or in your TV or on your voice remote of your set-top box. But really the place where voice plays a very important safety role is the car and we provide that platform. So that is the starting point for our company. We're, obviously, kind of -- we want to be the AI platform of choice for assisting the driver, for assisting in the cabin, with other modalities of interactions beyond voice and so on. And that's the move-forward vision for the company, Mark.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#6

Thank you for that. So attach rates on new car sales today is about 54%. What do you see that number getting to over time? And what are some of the key drivers of that?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#7

Yes, Mark?

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#8

Yes. So if you look at the embedded AI technology that we sell to the auto industry, in 2019 -- we don't have the final 2020 numbers yet, but for 2019, the penetration rates or attach rates were about 67%. And Cerence had a very significant market share of that portion of the market. We have about 80% market share. And we think that, that penetration rate is going to grow to about 82% by 2024. And so there's going to be still some significant growth happening in that portion of the market. What's more exciting is the cloud-connected services portion of the market where in 2019, you probably had about 40% of worldwide vehicles had native cloud connectivity built into the vehicle. That's expected to grow at an even faster rate than the embedded portion of the AI technology. And that 40% is expected to grow to about 60% of worldwide vehicles in 2024. And so that's where you got a steeper slope to the curve in terms of growth rates. And that's going to be probably the more significant driver of growth for this type of technology. And quite frankly, because of these 2 trends, where the car is getting more and more digital, that's really just driving the secular tailwinds for our part of the industry, and that's why our business has historically continued to grow well above auto production sales.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#9

Consumers liking these features is certainly part of it. So Sanjay, and Mark, you both touched a little bit on the safety aspect. Are there any regulations that may be coming, that may encourage automakers to include voice technology on their vehicles in order to help divers keep their eyes on the road?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#10

No, there is -- not only for voice, but DMS, which stands for Driver Monitoring Systems, which is more than voice, are definitely going to be regulated and mandated. There are regulations starting from Europe, and then there is discussions in U.S. as well. But this is basically for technology to look at is the driver distracted, is the driver drowsy, those sort of functions. And as I have said in the past, that's another area of growth for Cerence. We are bringing other modalities of interactions onto our AI platform and enhancing it. So we announced a product, Mark, called Cerence Look. It's launched in Mercedes S Class. Mercedes launched it at CES. They call it travel knowledge where you basically, when you are driving, you can kind of look anywhere in any direction and say, "hey Mercedes, what's that building or what's that monument", and it basically gives you all the information. And Cerence's Cerence Look product can kind of take GPS information, voice information, gauge information and basically combine the 3 together to kind of create a response for the driver. And we obviously want to -- we are planning -- we are working on enhancing further into DMS space as well.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#11

And so I think the company's content per vehicle opportunity currently is in the mid- to high single digits per car. But Sanjay and Mark, you've talked about the opportunity to get that to at least the mid-teens, maybe even $20 over time. Perhaps Cerence Look is one of those opportunities to expand that CPV. But talk a bit more about the key drivers that will help the company to expand its CPV in the future?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#12

Sure. So I'll start with the product side, and then maybe Mark can kind of talk about economics and so on. So from the product side, basically, we're -- we have been laser-focused on this. And the way to do that is to obviously add new products and new innovations, new value that you basically bring to the OEMs. If you look at our last 1 year, our first year of existence as a company, we accelerated our innovation. We didn't really increase our R&D spend that much. We really kind of reprioritized it, kind of realigned it and improved the productivity of our R&D team. We do have a fairly large R&D team, and that was one of the first things that I did. I'm an engineer, including Mark, my CFO, is an engineer as well. So we the importance of innovation and kind of bringing new capabilities. So if you look at our portfolio, we recently did a Cerence In Motion event where we kind of relaunched our portfolio. And you will basically see a lot of new products, new capabilities. For example, Cerence Look is one of them, there is something called Emergency Vehicle Detection, which basically detects an emergency vehicle through voice, right? There are many, many interesting kind of new capabilities. I don't think so we have the time here to go through all of them. But I would recommend, if anybody is interested to go to our website or to look at the Cerence In Motion event, which is recorded on our website as well. And you will basically see kind of the whole portfolio, which will add and increase the content per vehicle. So now our sales and SE teams are basically very focused on working with our customers to kind of add those designs into the cars basically. Mark, do you want to talk about the KPIs and how we measure it?

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#13

Yes, yes. And so if you kind of look at, historically, cars were not connected 10 years ago or very few of them were connected. And so our main offering was really just the embedded piece. But now that we're offering the connected services, that creates a layering effect on top of our revenue per vehicle. And then as what Sanjay talked about, we're adding new applications and new features constantly through our innovation. And so those additional features in those additional applications will just create this layering effect on top of our core business. And that's how we're going to be growing that content per vehicle. One of the key performance indicators that we just started announcing a couple of quarters ago, is our average billings growth per vehicle. And so last quarter, we just announced our quarter results on Monday, as you know. And the most recent trailing 12-month versus the prior year trailing 12 months, our billings per vehicle increased by 20%. And so that, to us, is a very good sign and a very good indicator that the additional features and the additional cars getting connected is creating this increase in content per vehicle, which is translating into more dollars per vehicle for Cerence.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#14

And one of those other new capabilities the company has recently introduced is Cerence Pay. And there was some news out on that not too long ago with a collaboration along with Xevo, which is the software platform owned by Lear. Can you talk a bit more about what Cerence Pay is and some of these new opportunities like this collaboration and what they could mean for your financial opportunity?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#15

Sure. So let me start again with the product. I'll have Mark talk financials around it, right? So Cerence Pay is one of the 3 apps that we launched in the last 1 year. Cerence Pay enables payment. It's not a payment gateway. It integrates with the existing payment gateway. So Mercedes may have certain existing payment relationships or the PayPals or the Visa Mastercard of the world. So we're not trying to duplicate that. So we're not trying to be the Google Pay or the Apple Pay or Samsung Pay or whatever, right? We just integrate with whatever the OEMs prefers. But what Cerence Pay does basically is to integrate with the key transactions -- enable the key transactions that a driver may do in the car. So we did a research study. And basically, if you think about when you're driving, what are the 5 things that you touch your wallet on? #1 is gas. #2 is drive through when you're buying coffee or buying a burger or whatever, #3 is parking, #4 is tolls, et cetera, right? So we basically zoomed in on what are the most important things you do when you are driving. And remember, Mark, we're very focused on the driver, right, the car, right? So what we are trying to basically do with the Cerence Pay product is to improve the driving experience and enabling these transactions using voice, okay? So that is Cerence Pay product, right? So while you're driving, the use case would be you drive up to Pump 15 and you say, "hey Cerence, pay $50 of 15." There is voice bio to authenticate you, just like you have finger ID, face ID, there is something called a voice ID. We have voice biometrics platform integrated into our payment product and similarly, kind of other integrations to enable that function. We have also launched 2 other apps. One is called Cerence Tour Guide. In fact, the press release went out today, which basically improves the -- sort of like having a virtual tour guide in the car with you. So you can go on a preplanned trip or you can plan a trip. And basically, the virtual tour guide will give you all the information and enable you with your reservations of museums or reservations of restaurants or whatever else you want to do on your trip. So that's Tour Guide that we launched with a bunch of partnerships today. And previous to that, we have launched a product called Car Life, which is basically improving the car owning experience. So again, look at the theme here, Mark, it's -- Car Life is about owning -- improving the car ownership experience. When I typically buy a car, I don't even ever go through the manuals. I've bought probably 15 new cars in my life over the last 40 years that I've been driving. And every single time, I want to kind of -- I'm excited to learn about the car and all that stuff, never ever I do this. So we are bringing all this, the car manual and a very intelligent Q&A to that manual through voice. So while I'm driving, I can say, "Hey Cerence, tell me about my car, tell me about my infotainment system. How do I measure tire pressure? How do I do this? Or how do I do that? Or what does this light mean? Or what does that feature means, right?" So all this information is available to you via voice using our Car Life product. Cerence Pay is transactions. And then Tour Guide is entertainment while you are driving onto a tour in your car. And all of these apps are designed to kind of basically layer on top of our voice platform. And the whole idea is to increase the content per car.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#16

That makes a lot of sense. You guys already talked about some of the attach rate figures more broadly. But can you talk more specifically on what sort of attach rates you may be seeing on some of these newer features like Cerence Look and Cerence Pay?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#17

It's too early, Mark, to mention the exact attach rates. We have customers now, right, and the product is going into production, whether it's Pay or -- Look is already in production. But meaning -- by production, I mean it has been launched on a car. The Cerence Pay, the first one that we announced with the partnership with Lear. The way it's going to work basically is they already have millions of cars on the road with the Xevo platform. We are working on an OTA upgrade to their platform. So there will be an over-the-year update that would be pushed out later this year, which basically will enable these transactions, and that's when the revenue for us will start.

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#18

Yes. And that relationship with Lear through Xevo, they already have access to about 40 million vehicles. And so that's the exciting part of that relationship that we've got with Xevo. And as Sanjay mentioned, we -- it will be a transaction-based revenue stream in which there will be revenue sharing between Xevo and Cerence.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#19

That's very helpful. We were talking previously about building up to the content per vehicle opportunity from mid- to high single digits currently to $15 to $20 in the future. Typically, in the auto industry, there's some degradation on pricing of current products over time, nothing too severe. But historically, it's been low single digits. So is the way to think about bridging from where you are today to that number you'd like to get to in the future, it's really adding on some of these new capabilities, and we start adding them on as well as, I imagine, some improvements to your core technology, that, that's what gets you to that $15 to $20 type of a number.

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#20

Yes. That's correct, Mark. And so you're right. The auto industry is very well-known for trying to push down pricing over time. And the key to offset that is to constantly innovate. And if you fail to innovate, you're going to really fall behind that power curve, if you will. And so that's why we're bringing a strong culture to Cerence to make sure that we innovate constantly through new products and new services and new features to our core business. Because if you don't do that or if you fall behind, it certainly will start to play out in your financials. But I think the evidence against that is the fact that we continue to see our average billings per car continue to grow. And that to us is a very good scorecard as to our ability to continue to innovate and add value to the customer.

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#21

On a lighter note, Mark, I'm engineer, Mark Gallenberger, our CFO, is an engineer. Leanne, who's our General Counsel. He's an engineer. So we have a lawyer, who is an engineer. My head of IR, Rich, he's an engineer. So we are all -- a bunch of engineers really passionate about technology. We really are, okay? And that's what we do. I have -- from the day I came in as a CEO, I've started companies here in Silicon Valley. Over the last 25 years, I led other private companies. And the simple mantra that I follow is innovate or die. It's as simple as that. And our priorities are very focused, number one, product and innovation. Every single morning when I wake up, I think about that for our company. We have a strong CTO. We have a strong product management team, basically also thinking, right, and working with our customers. Our second priority is speed of execution, which is executing across all functions and domains and so on. And our third focus is cost. So these are the 3 simple things that we focus on in the company every single day.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#22

No. That makes a lot of sense, and it's very helpful. I wanted to get into one of the debates that's been ongoing in the investment community about the competitive landscape and also opportunity for Cerence going forward, and what roll is big tech going to have on the auto industry? And how would that potentially impact Cerence? And Cerence's articulated a view that there's going to be coexistence between your technology and things like what Amazon and Google and Apple can potentially offer with Siri and Alexa and those sorts of services. Can you be more specific and talk in more depth about how you see Cerence coexisting with some of these other big tech voice technologies and connected car offerings?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#23

Sure. So I'll start, and maybe mark, you can jump in as well. So the -- firstly, voice, AI, conversational AI plays is a very important role in the car. We already talked about that. We are a specialized platform for the vertical application, which is the car, right? Many big tech are more horizontal basically because that technology exists on the phone, in a TV, on a set-top box remote, in a spot speaker, et cetera, et cetera, in the car. The -- from an OEM standpoint, it has -- there has been a consistent message that they want to own the user experience. They understand that the car is getting more and more digital. And owning that digital experience is extremely important to the OEM. They don't want to outsource the digital experience to somebody else because if you outsource that digital experience, you are basically giving up -- you're outsourcing the soul of a car. Because if you believe that the car is getting more digital, that the digital experience is a soul. So #1 reason, they want to own the digital experience. Second thing is that through that AI, conversational AI and other elements of AI, that technology enables the OEM to understand the -- what their drivers and the consumers are doing in the car. What they -- what functions they are using, what transactions they're doing. And with that, basically, there is an opportunity to improve the product, there's an opportunity to monetize further areas. If you outsource that whole piece to somebody else, you basically kind of lose that control. Cerence's model is OEM-friendly, meaning our model is B2B, and we basically provide a white label opportunity, white label product for the OEMs. Having said that, the coexistence is absolutely necessary. I am not saying that this is -- it's something that should not be talked about, et cetera, it's one or the other. Absolutely not the case because a consumer spends 22 hours outside the car and maybe 1 to 2 hours inside the car. And the consumer wants a seamless integration of his or her digital life outside the car to the digital life inside the car, right? And so what we are trying to basically do is try to create that bridge, try to give OEMs what they want from a private white label AI platform, conversational AI platform standpoint. Full UI control, full access into the data, full ownership into the data, et cetera, et cetera, and monetization of that data. But also a bridge to the multiple big tech ecosystems that should coexist in the car. And because if I look at my digital life, I use Apple devices and services every day. I use Google devices and services every day. I use Amazon devices and services every day. I use Microsoft Calendar, Outlook, et cetera. I don't want one or the other. I want all 4. If I am a consumer sitting in China, I don't care about Amazon or Google, I care about Baidu or Alibaba or Tencent. So I want to bridge from my car to Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent. If I'm a consumer sitting in Russia, I want to bridge to Yandex, not to Google or Amazon, right? So what we are trying to basically do is create this platform that enables what OEMs want, but also what consumers want, right? And I think it's very visible. As you know, a few months back, Google who had closed their API for Android automotive, have opened up the API to coexist -- coexistence of multiple assistant alongside Google Assistant, for example. They will not be doing that if this is not what people want.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#24

Yes, that's really helpful. So Cerence helps the OEMs have that digital experience and own that, better control of the data. But the other thing, I mean, you were talking about as a bridge. But in our conversations in the past, you also talked about cognitive arbitration, where the first thing that the car does when someone speaks is clean up that signal. And then if necessary, route it off to a Google search or something like that. But Cerence technology is that front-end step and can provide the logic about what to do with the voice command, even if it ultimately does go off to one of these big tech companies?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#25

That's right. So there is a cognitive arbitration that's built in that part of our product. And there is multiple layers of cognitive arbitration that we do. The most basic is wake-up word based arbitration. So you say things like hey Mercedes or hey Alexa or hey Google. And basically, it switches based on just a wake-up word. That's very basic. We also do intent-based arbitration, which basically means that the -- it's like an intelligent voice router, right, which basically routes based on intelligence. So based on what the intent of the conversation is, tell me about weather in San Diego. And so it will just kind of say, "okay, for whether, my partner is this." And so the business logic for that voice intelligent router will be controlled by the OEM in this case.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#26

That's helpful. We talked about this on the earnings call, Sanjay and Mark, but I think it's really important. So I want to bring it up again and perhaps you -- so show more examples you can share with us compared to Monday on the earnings call. But I was asking about what kind of pricing and content per vehicle is Cerence realizing when it's the only voice technology in a car compared to when there is this coexistence with big tech. And the concern being, from some investors, that if Cerence has to coexists with these other big tech companies, okay, maybe you do coexist, but you're going to have to offer it at a much lower price because there's other companies there. And I was asking you, what kind of dollar opportunity per car are you getting in those instances where there's a coexistence compared to when it's just Cerence? Can you talk a little bit about some of those examples? Are you seeing similar economics when you're coexisting compared to being the only provider?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#27

Yes. So we have not seen any major shift in the economics. We have co existed with Amazon on a number of platforms. We're in discussions with a couple of OEMs on the coexistence with Google, et cetera. And no major shift in economics, Mark, that I can share at this stage, right? And the reason for that is that if you look at the big tech business model versus our business model, it's different. Our business model is pure software licensing for the OEM, right, and providing them this white label platform, right, that they own. They own the experience, they own the data, all that stuff. The big tech, if I look at Amazon, for example, or others, their business model is -- the reason for Alexa to exist from Amazon standpoint is a very different business model, right? They're not trying to license Alexa. As a platform, they're trying to monetize the transactions that Alexa grabs when it's existing on a platform, right? So it's a different business model. And the coexistence kind of doesn't erode either side, right? It's kind of -- it's one of the happy way of kind of staying together and solving the big problem. Mark, I don't know if -- the economics part, I think, my answer is accurate. We have not seen any major kind of thing...

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#28

Yes. I think that's right, Sanjay. I think also, given some of the changes with opening up the APIs with Google, that's more testament to the fact that the OEMs as well as the end consumers don't want to be segmented to just a single large tech solution. And so that coexistence is evidenced in that. And as a result, we do believe that there's going to be the ability for us to continue to have that -- enjoy the same economics that we've had historically, even with the coexistence story.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#29

That's helpful. I do want to make sure we speak to some of the other end market opportunities that Cerence is pursuing when we think about transportation more holistically. And there are some instances where that's outside of the cars and elevators is something that the company spoke to on the last earnings call. You said you're in proof-of-concept demonstrations at 2 of the 5 largest elevator manufacturers globally. Elevator is not a market that a lot of tech investors are familiar with. They're certainly not so that I'm all that familiar with. So can you talk a little bit more about what kind of design in cycle and time to market there could be in elevators? And any sort of commentary about the potential revenue opportunity from elevators for Cerence?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#30

Sure. So frankly speaking, Mark, even I was not thinking of elevators. This came because of COVID-19, believe it or not. So when COVID-19 hit in March, I used to go to my quarantined office every day. And our offices in San Mateo are on 6th floor, and I would not want to touch the button, both inside in the hall and in the elevator. And so I would use my key or my access card or, et cetera, et cetera. And I was talking -- brainstorming with my product management team and people were having similar kind of experiences. So we started kind of studying the elevator market and started to kind of talk to some of the elevator companies. And it was very interesting kind of nice cross-section that they were also thinking the same thing that we were thinking. So we quickly kind of created a product around it. The product is different. So it's not just -- people may think that it's just the same product as a car, voice assistant, simplified, that's not the case because the use cases are very different. Let me explain a couple of them, right? So one is you always assume that all the people sitting in the car speak the same language. So although we support 70 languages, in a car, you get -- you enable English U.K. or Australian U.K. or -- sorry, Australian English or Chinese or Mandarine or whatever, right? And -- but in an elevator, the product should be able to support multiple languages at the same time because there are -- there could be multiple occupants in the elevator speaking different languages at the same time. That's point #1. Point #2, voice biometrics plays a very important role because today, if I go -- I use my access card to get access to my floor. And I don't know about you, Mark, but I have absolutely left that card and have been stranded at an odd hour in my lobby saying, okay, what do I do? Why can't I use my voice bio as a way of authenticating me to take me to my floor? Third, why do I need to know the POIs? Why do I need to know which floor Cerence is located at? Why can't the elevator figure it out and all I say is, "hey, take me to Cerence", right? So there are all these use cases that are really unique and interesting as we dig deeper. We work on our product for about 4, 5 months in a very fast way, prototyped it. In August, last year, we started talking to elevator companies. We picked the top 5 elevator companies to start discussing with them. We successfully finished our first POC in December with one of them. And we are in the POC with the second one right now and then in discussions with the others. And we expect that the product will go into -- fingers crossed, we've been at it obviously, we have not won it yet. So I should not make too far-looking statements, in second half this year. So they'll start offering that as a product. The exact scope of the opportunity, we're still assessing it, Mark. It's a little early for us. There is about 2 million elevators shipped every year. There is a very large installed base of existing elevators. Our product can be retrofitted into existing elevator base as well. So we're not going after only the new elevators that get installed every year. And again, just like cars, you have low end, mid-end, high end. Same thing with the elevators, you have the low, which is the residential, 0 to 3 floors. So we've learned a lot about the elevator market in the last 1 year.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#31

Yes. And do you think about the dollar for elevator opportunity? Is that something similar to what you may be doing at cars of mid-single digits per unit? Or is it completely different for elevators?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#32

It's completely different. It's completely different, Mark, because there will be a -- if you look at our announcements that we made at Cerence In Motion, there will be a hardware device and software. So not all elevators are enabled to run AI, right? So the economic opportunities is different. And remember, like a car where you think of 10-year life, elevator life is double to triple of that, basically. So there is a SaaS monetization part, right, that we are trying to basically bundle into our product offering.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#33

Okay. Well, sounds really interesting, and I think investors and myself are all looking forward to seeing how that develops. We've gotten to a few of the questions already that the audience had sent in so far. But I did want to try and get to one more if we could, before we run out of time. Question is about the Mercedes plans to work with the NVIDIA DRIVE platform in the future. Is that something that Cerence would be a part of? Do you participate on that platform? Or is that a potential risk if you're not involved on that development plan?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#34

We're absolutely fully integrated and working together with NVIDIA and Mercedes. And as we announced earlier last year, earlier or mid last year, we were -- we won the next-gen of Mercedes platform as well. So yes, we are.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#35

Let me just slip one last question we got from the audience in. I know we're out of time, but I think it's a quick answer because I know Sanjay, you and I have talked about this before, but the voice authentication for secure payment, how secure is that? Could somebody fool that with just a recorded voice?

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#36

It's very secure. I mean it's in use today for banks. When you call a bank and bank kind of recognizes you with your voice. So it is in use at the bank level today. Nuance does provide that platform, right? So we don't deal with banks directly, but our parent company did. And so it's fairly secure. It's not at the same security level as face ID or a finger ID, but it's getting there, right? But in cases where you need that level of authentication, you do 2 steps. So meaning, you take the WIN number with Sanjay's voice to conclusively say this is Sanjay, for example. So what you do is you do 2 steps, right? You add a factor, you do -- you add one more factor to the authentication.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#37

Understood. I'd love to keep discussing everything, a lot of interesting things to come, but we are unfortunately out of time. So Sanjay, Mark, really appreciate you both speaking with us today.

Sanjay Dhawan

executive
#38

Thank you so much.

Mark Gallenberger

executive
#39

Thank you, Mark.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#40

Operator, this concludes the session.

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