Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 14, 2024

NASDAQ US Information Technology Communications Equipment earnings 57 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Ahmed Sami Badri

executive
#1

Sami Badri here, serving as Cisco's Head of Investor Relations. With me today are Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO, along with Scott Herren, who is our CFO. You should have already received our earnings press release by this point. After this call concludes, a webcast with slides — which includes supplemental information — will be posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. You can also locate income statements, complete GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation details, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and additional financial information within the Financial Information section on our Investor Relations site. During this conference call, we'll be citing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and unless otherwise noted, we'll cover product results by revenue while geographic and customer results will be discussed in terms of product orders. Every comparison we make on this call is year-over-year. Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, among them the guidance we're giving for the first quarter and the full year of fiscal 2025. Such statements carry risks and uncertainties that are described at length in the documents we file with the SEC — in particular, the latest report on Forms 10-K and 10-Q — which lay out significant risk factors that may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from what those forward-looking statements indicate. Regarding guidance, we ask that you also review the slides and press release accompanying this call for additional details. Unless Cisco makes an explicit public disclosure, it will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter. I'll now hand things over to Chuck.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#2

Appreciate it, Sami, and thanks to everyone for being here with us today. Fiscal '24 ended on a strong note, with fourth-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion, which landed above the top end of the range we had guided to, along with $53.8 billion in revenue for the full year, combined with increases in annualized recurring revenue, remaining performance obligations and subscription revenue. We also posted outstanding margins, helped along by Splunk. At 67.5%, our gross margin was Cisco's best in 20 years. Demand held steady, and we finished the year with total product order growth of 14%, or 6% growth if you exclude Splunk, which tells us that the stretch of customers working through their inventory is now mostly in the rearview, just as we had anticipated. We've also kept investing to speed up essential innovation in key areas, with Hypershield and HyperFabric for AI standing out as 2 great illustrations. Now that Splunk belongs to Cisco, we think we hold an unmatched ability to unleash the network's full potential, pairing market-leading security and observability offerings to bring customers even more value. Since merging the Splunk and Cisco teams, we've come out of the gate quickly, pulling together powerful new customer solutions and starting to capture early synergies. We recognize that the strength of our complete portfolio is what sets us apart from competitors more than anything else. That's why earlier today, we shared that we will unite our networking, security and collaboration teams into a single organization, with Jeetu Patel taking on a broader role as Chief Product Officer to head that group, effective immediately. As we finish folding Splunk fully into Cisco, the Splunk product line will likewise move into this new organization at the appropriate moment, uniting our whole product portfolio under one team. Through this new structure, our products will be brought together more cohesively than at any point before, putting us in position to produce remarkably strong results for our customers. Going forward, we stay sharply focused on growth and dependable execution as we put money into winning in AI, cloud and cybersecurity. To concentrate on these priority areas, we announced today a restructuring plan that lets us invest in key growth opportunities while also generating more efficiency in our business. Let me now walk through some specifics of our fourth quarter. Q4 performance was solid, with revenue landing above the top end of the range we had guided to. Once again, strong operating leverage throughout our business pushed non-GAAP margins past the top end of what we had expected, which meant earnings per share likewise finished above the top end of our guidance range. Growth in our recurring revenue streams remains a priority for us. Annualized recurring revenue, remaining performance obligations and subscription revenue each posted solid growth, and subscription revenue accounted for 56% of our revenue in the quarter. We stayed committed as well to giving back capital on a steady basis. During Q4, share buybacks plus cash dividends put $3.6 billion of value back in shareholders' hands, which lifted the cumulative amount returned in fiscal '24 to $12.1 billion, equal to 119% of free cash flow. Turning to customer demand, as noted before, Q4 brought steady demand, producing double-digit growth in product orders across every geography along with strength in every customer market, even with macro uncertainty that persists. Worldwide public sector demand stood out, fueled by U.S. federal spending and momentum in APJC. Enterprise demand came back strong this quarter, with solid results in the Americas and EMEA and even better outcomes in APJC; during the quarter we closed multiple $100 million-plus deals with global enterprises that are tapping the breadth of our technology platforms to modernize and automate their network operations and roll out next-generation machine learning and AI applications. One of the biggest agreements signed this quarter deserves a mention: a leading global logistics company working to build the world's most flexible, efficient and intelligent logistics network. Technology platforms from Cisco spanning switching, routing, security and observability will let this customer automate network operations using cutting-edge innovations such as AI-powered robotics and unmatched supply chain visibility; this quarter we also closed our first cross-portfolio agreement that includes Splunk, signed with a major automotive company. AI is reshaping every piece of our customers' IT environments; they must modernize infrastructure, capture the full power of AI and data and strengthen their cybersecurity posture, all while creating agility and resiliency throughout their whole digital footprint. Customers keep placing their trust in Cisco, and we are positioned very well to serve as their strategic partner for this era. On the service provider side, though demand from our telco and cable customers stayed muted overall amid pressure that continues across the industry, we saw strength in EMEA, driven by service providers investing in AI operations and autonomous networks to help them monetize their B2B offerings. We are encouraged as well by signs of stabilization and better performance in webscale when it comes to pipeline and demand, with double-digit order growth. For some incremental color, let me share data on demand viewed through our products. With Splunk excluded, security product orders rose double digits. Collaboration product orders rose double digits. Within our networking portfolio, data center switching posted double-digit product order growth too; and enterprise routing, campus switching and wireless orders were strong as well, with wireless orders exceeding 1 million, up more than 20% year-over-year, as customers seek to enhance their office environments. Across the breadth of our portfolio and global customer base, our product order results show demand strengthening as customers direct attention to their next top priority, technology investments. Even as clients stay fiercely disciplined about where their money goes, our order figures show they keep turning to Cisco for the technology projects that matter most to them. Let's dig into the product categories a bit further now. Within security, revenue climbed, and observability posted a year-over-year increase in the double digits — that's when you set Splunk aside — since buyers want to strengthen their digital resilience using Cisco technology. The response from clients given early access to Hypershield has been overwhelmingly favorable; it's the first genuinely distributed, AI-native cybersecurity offering woven directly into the network fabric. Hypershield advances what we envision for the Cisco Security Cloud, which should bring the market its most complete, unified platform, offering end-to-end solutions, so protecting our customers from changing threats becomes simpler, and we can't wait to release it this fall. Strong momentum keeps building for our newer security offerings, XDR and Secure Access. More than 230 XDR customers came on board during Q4. Right at the start of the quarter, we revealed that Cisco XDR now integrates with Splunk Enterprise Security. Then, at the Black Hat cybersecurity conference earlier this month, we shared that Talos Incident Response is now available to Splunk customers, giving them the complete set of proactive and emergency services to help them get ready for, deal with, and bounce back from a breach. The multibillion-dollar chance in AI infrastructure is something we keep seizing as well; with webscale customers, we've passed $1 billion in AI orders so far, and 3 of the top 4 hyperscalers are putting our Ethernet AI fabric to work, drawing on Cisco-validated designs for AI infrastructure. Another $1 billion in AI product orders is what we anticipate during fiscal year '25. During our Investor Day in June, I mentioned that this momentum comes from numerous use cases now in production with the hyperscalers, and a number of those involve AI. On top of that, we hold multiple design wins, with about 2/3 of them tied to AI. Beyond the webscale AI chance, we think we're positioned well to benefit most as AI applications spread throughout the enterprise. Built alongside NVIDIA, our HyperFabric for AI cluster solution assists enterprise clients in constructing infrastructure for running generative AI models and inference applications. Once it launches later in this fiscal year, that on-premise offering will walk users from design through validated deployment to monitoring and assurance; we're also boosting our own productivity by applying AI within our services and customer experience organization; a strong AI and automation framework of ours reaches no fewer than 50% of our service requests. We're also embedding AI Assistants in our products, giving customers and partners efficient ways to reach support. Before turning things over to Scott, I'd like to briefly thank our teams for the hard work they put in to finish the year strong and for their unwavering dedication to our customers. To wrap up, although we're happy with how we did amid shifting conditions, we recognize that robust execution is necessary for us to win in the expanding markets we operate in. We think this is going to deliver solid growth and profitability as we move into fiscal 2025. At this point I'll hand things to Scott, who will give further specifics about the quarter along with what we expect ahead.

Richard Herren

executive
#3

Thanks, Chuck. I'll begin by walking through how we performed financially this quarter, then I'll move on to the entire fiscal year, and after that I'll discuss guidance. The results we posted for Q4 show we executed well, with healthy margins and robust order activity as customers' purchasing habits start to normalize. During the quarter, total revenue came in at $13.6 billion, which exceeded the top of the range we had guided to, representing a 10% decline compared with a year earlier, when we posted our best quarter ever in Q4 of fiscal '23. Splunk added roughly $960 million of revenue during the quarter, matching what we had anticipated. Non-GAAP net income reached $3.5 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.87, above the top of our guided range. The interest costs tied to funding the Splunk acquisition outweighed the beneficial operating effect Splunk delivered. On a net basis, that subtracted $0.04 from non-GAAP earnings per share in the quarter. Let me examine our Q4 revenue more closely. Total product revenue reached $9.9 billion, a 15% decline as we worked through the last quarter of customer inventory challenges. Services revenue came to $3.8 billion, rising 6%. Networking, which is our biggest product category, fell 28% relative to Q4 '23 networking revenue, a quarter that gained from shipments of excess backlog that were close to a record. Security rose 81%, which includes the gain from Splunk. If you set Splunk aside, security increased 6%, fueled by competitive wins along with growth in SASE and network security growth in the double digits. Collaboration was unchanged, as growth in our cloud calling and CPaaS products was offset by drops in meetings and devices. Observability climbed 41%, powered by growth in our observability suite, our Splunk observability product and ThousandEyes network services. Setting Splunk aside, observability rose 12% in the quarter. Now let's turn to our recurring metrics. ARR finished the quarter at $29.6 billion, rising 22% thanks to continuing strong performance and the contribution from Splunk. Those same factors pushed our product ARR growth to 43%. Excluding Splunk, ARR stood at $25.3 billion, an increase of 4%, while product ARR rose 9%. Total subscription revenue climbed 17% to $7.7 billion, and that now accounts for 56% of Cisco's overall revenue. Excluding Splunk, total subscription revenue rose 2%, making up 53% of Cisco's overall revenue. Total software revenue increased 15% to $5.3 billion, while software subscription revenue rose 25%. Subscription-based software made up 92% of our total software revenue. Excluding Splunk, software revenue fell 5% because of decreases in perpetual license software as we shift toward more subscription-based software arrangements. Software subscription revenue rose 2%. Total RPO reached $41.0 billion, up 18%, driven by both solid organic performance and the addition of Splunk. Product RPO increased 27%. Total short-term RPO rose 17%. Excluding Splunk, RPO was $37.5 billion, up 8%, with product RPO also growing 8%. As Chuck mentioned, Q4 product orders rose 14% compared with a year earlier. Excluding Splunk, product orders increased 6% year-over-year, a sign that the stretch of inventory digestion among our customers is now mostly done. Let's look at our product orders across our geographic segments on a year-over-year basis. In the Americas, revenue rose 15%. EMEA gained 12%, while APJC climbed 16%. Looking at our customer markets, the public sector grew 20%, enterprise increased 13%, and service provider and cloud rose 5%. Total non-GAAP gross margin reached 67.9%, which is 200 basis points higher than a year ago and above the top end of the range we had guided to. Product gross margin landed at 67.0%, an increase of 150 basis points, mostly fueled by Splunk along with a favorable product mix, though price partly offset that. Services gross margin stood at 70.3%, up 280 basis points. Non-GAAP operating margin hit the upper end of our guidance range, coming in at 32.5%. Moving over to the balance sheet, we closed out Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments amounting to $17.9 billion. Operating cash flow totaled $3.7 billion. In line with how we allocate capital, we gave back $3.6 billion to shareholders, made up of $1.6 billion in quarterly cash dividends and $2.0 billion in share repurchases. We capitalized on market conditions to buy back more shares over the quarter. Now for the full fiscal year, we posted solid margins and improved our operating leverage. Revenue of $53.8 billion meant fiscal '24 stood as Cisco's second best year ever, behind the record $57 billion in fiscal '23, a year that gained from sizable shipments of elevated backlog. Splunk added roughly $1.4 billion in revenue following the acquisition's close in March of this year. Non-GAAP earnings per share came to $3.73, above the top of our guidance range, and 4% lower than a year ago. Splunk proved $0.04 dilutive to full-year earnings, factoring in financing costs. On our recurring metrics, total software revenue for the full year rose 9% to $18.4 billion, with the product portion also climbing 9%. Software subscription revenue increased 15%. Subscription-based software accounted for 89% of total software revenue. Excluding Splunk, total software revenue grew 1%. Total subscription revenue reached $27.4 billion, up 11%. Excluding Splunk, total subscription revenue rose 6%. As Chuck noted, total non-GAAP gross margin was 67.5%, an increase of 300 basis points and the best in 20 years; on the bottom line, non-GAAP net income was $15.2 billion. Operating cash flow was $10.9 billion. Keep in mind, cash flow took a hit from the timing of large tax payments in fiscal '24 versus fiscal '23. During the year, we delivered $12.1 billion in value back to shareholders via cash dividends and share repurchases. That breaks down as $6.4 billion in quarterly cash dividends and $5.8 billion of share repurchases. We raised our dividend for the 13th straight year in fiscal '24, underscoring our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows. To wrap up, we performed well in Q4 and across the fiscal year; we finished the year with order levels on the mend as customers mostly wrapped up implementing record Cisco product shipments. Also, as Chuck noted, we're realigning our expenses to better seize the opportunities that lie ahead. Under the restructuring plan we've already shared, roughly 7% of the company's employees worldwide will be affected, and the pretax charges tied to that are estimated at as much as $1 billion. Now on to the outlook for our finances. Here's what we're guiding for fiscal Q1: revenue should land somewhere between $13.65 billion and $13.85 billion; for non-GAAP gross margin, we're looking at a range of 67% to 68%. We expect non-GAAP operating margin to come in between 32% and 33%. Non-GAAP earnings per share should fall somewhere between $0.86 and $0.88. Also for Q1, our assumption for the non-GAAP effective tax rate is roughly 19%. Moving on to fiscal year '25, here's our guidance: we anticipate revenue between $55 billion and $56.2 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share should come in somewhere between $3.52 and $3.58, and our assumption for the non-GAAP effective tax rate is roughly 19%. Sami, why don't we open it up for questions now.

Ahmed Sami Badri

executive
#4

Thanks, Scott. <<operator_script>> Operator, could we go ahead and take the first analyst waiting in line?

Meta Marshall

analyst
#5

Chuck, perhaps the best place to begin is with you, regarding how customers are prioritizing their budgets. It's obvious they are exiting a period of digestion, but I'd like a sense of how they're juggling various enterprise efforts or initiatives, especially when it comes to balancing AI projects. Then, maybe a second question for Scott: is the entire risk accounted for within the fiscal '25 guidance? Any clarity would help.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#6

Thanks, Meta. Sure, I'd say that when you look at the portfolio as a whole, and if I travel around the globe a bit regarding demand, geographically speaking, things were quite even. The Americas and Europe were both up 6%, while Asia was up 8%. Every one of those figures leaves out Splunk, which I'll address briefly. Looking at segments, enterprise grew 3%, cloud and SP rose 2%, and public sector jumped 15%. So we observed fairly even strength in that area. However, throughout the technology portfolio, the balance was remarkable. As we mentioned, we achieved double-digit growth in security, and double-digit growth in collaboration. Then, when it comes to networking, it's worth noting that both the enterprise switching and enterprise routing businesses saw high single-digit increases, while the wireless business grew by double digits. Also, as Scott noted in his comments, the count of $1 million deals in wireless by itself climbed 20% year-over-year; thus, demand was extremely well-balanced across the portfolio. One item I'd mention that came up this quarter for the first time, which we hadn't heard previously, is that enterprise customers are now actually upgrading their infrastructure to get ready for AI. In certain instances, they're reallocating some funds they had reserved for AI to instead invest in modernizing their infrastructure so they can be prepared for it. You could see that in a few of the platform sales examples we provided. Take the large logistics firm that purchased the cross-portfolio solution—the entire platform, Cisco platforms—and they aim to support AI-powered robotics, AI-powered supply chain visibility, and so forth; so we believe we're starting to witness customers genuinely getting ready for AI applications. Even if, in many situations, they might not understand the complete scope of what they'll eventually deploy, they do realize they must be prepared; that's essentially what we observed.

Richard Herren

executive
#7

And Meta, let me check that I understood your second question correctly. Were you asking about the entire risk that's baked into the fiscal '25 guidance?

Meta Marshall

analyst
#8

Regarding the job cuts that were disclosed, is it correct that the full benefit of that 7% reduction has already been accounted for within the fiscal '25 guidance?

Richard Herren

executive
#9

That's right, yes. And this seems like a good moment to clarify a bit further what that move is really intended to accomplish. Saving money isn't the point of it. So yes, the guide does include it; however, the real purpose is achieving greater efficiency throughout the organization, allowing us to shift additional resources—similar to what we did a year ago—toward the areas of the business growing quickest, meaning more emphasis on AI, more emphasis on cloud, and more emphasis on cybersecurity. So it's better understood as a reallocation rather than an effort to reduce costs. That said, yes, the guidance fully incorporates it.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#10

Yeah, Meta, let me just tack something onto that. Truth is, we're moving hundreds of millions of dollars over into AI — into AI networking for cloud, into AI infrastructure, silicon, and cyber. So that's a significant reallocation; even so, our sense is that the market is shifting at such a pace that we've got no choice but to make that move.

Tal Liani

analyst
#11

The previous question took some of the wind out of my sails, but I still want to pose this one. On one side, business cycles and restructuring always go hand in hand; and in this case, you have a company getting better in every way with orders rising, yet you're still declaring a significant 7% restructuring. Does something in the environment make you more careful? Is there something that pushes the timing of this restructuring earlier than what should be a strong year? So I'm curious what your perspective on the environment tells us, given when this restructuring is happening?

Richard Herren

executive
#12

Let me — I apologize. You go ahead.

Tal Liani

analyst
#13

I'll combine this with my second question. This one won't take long. Regarding security, the results were excellent and are at last getting better. Did the situation involving CrowdStrike have any effect? Given what took place with CrowdStrike, have you noticed any shift in how customers buy, or any altered dynamics among them?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#14

Thanks, Tal. I'll say something about the restructuring first, then Scott can weigh in a bit, and after that I'll come back to the security question; so about the restructuring, no is the response to that, nothing additional exists. Demand was tremendous throughout the portfolio; it was extremely broad-based and extremely consistent. The point really concerns making sure that, in the fast-changing markets we serve, we can move resources toward the areas that matter most; so that's the whole of it. Scott, anything to add?

Richard Herren

executive
#15

Tal, what you're seeing here is simply a continuation of our existing approach. During Investor Day, we mentioned that we had already shifted our R&D focus somewhat, directing over 50% of that spending toward 3 specific areas: AI, cloud, and cybersecurity. Naturally, networking remains hugely significant for us, and we will keep backing that segment too. However, we are pursuing efficiencies throughout the entire organization in every possible manner, allowing us to redirect those funds toward the sectors experiencing the quickest expansion. I'd frame this as merely the same financial rigor you have consistently observed from us. Take a look at the year we recently finished. Clearly, revenue faced top-line challenges, but we still delivered the company's highest operating margin ever. Thus, this represents just additional evidence of the financial discipline you associate with us.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#16

Now, regarding the security matter, Tal, yes — if you look back roughly 12 months, my comment was that I expected us to begin noticing gains during the back half of fiscal '24. Q3 had us at high single digits, Q4 reached double digits, and I stated that genuine momentum ought to take hold in '25. That, I believe, is exactly what we are starting to experience now. When it comes to CrowdStrike specifically, that's difficult for me to assess. What I can share is that an additional 230 XDR customers came on board; we are approaching 600 customers on that platform, and that represents a fairly major choice whenever a customer commits to it, so that is a positive sign. And honestly, the Secure Access offering — our cloud edge security solution — is in fact gaining traction at a pace quicker than XDR managed. Consequently, the teams deserve credit for their work on this innovation. At present, 2,200 customers are utilizing our AI Assistant within security, which is likewise quite heartening. So we hold a genuinely positive outlook regarding what the teams have accomplished in this area.

Samik Chatterjee

analyst
#17

Before I pose my question, I want to congratulate Jeetu on taking on a bigger role. Perhaps we can begin with the AI orders, Chuck — I believe you said the cumulative figure has already passed $1 billion, and you're on pace to reach $1 billion next year. Could you give us a sense of the run rate you're currently achieving compared with that $1 billion goal for next year? And as you gain more visibility into some of these deployments, how are you viewing the orders and the timing of when those orders convert into revenue? I also have a follow-up.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#18

Do you want to ask the follow-up now?

Ahmed Sami Badri

executive
#19

Samik, could you ask the follow-up now, please?

Samik Chatterjee

analyst
#20

All right. For my second question, I really wanted to dig into what the guidance assumes regarding Splunk's expansion compared with the rest of the business. If my math is correct, Splunk grew roughly 5% this quarter, which seems softer than the double-digit pace I believe most people anticipated. So any commentary on why it came in somewhat weaker, assuming I've calculated properly, and how should we think about what the guide bakes in for fiscal '25?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#21

Sure. Regarding AI orders, we mentioned that we've now passed $1 billion cumulatively in the webscale segment, which is a strong result. At Investor Day, we discussed how many design wins we've secured — these are situations where customers have given us the green light to proceed, provided we perform and ship the design according to their expectations. We're merely 2.5 weeks into the year, so predicting how these will unfold across the remaining months is difficult right now. That said, I can share that one of the very biggest companies in this area informed us just last week that they're issuing orders tied to one of those design wins, meaning one of them will begin producing orders soon. So I'd say developments are progressing the way we anticipated. And honestly, it's simply on us to perform and deliver what they've requested.

Richard Herren

executive
#22

Absolutely. Regarding Samik's question on Splunk, as we mentioned during our opening remarks, things are moving forward exactly as we anticipated. The main goal behind that deal was really centered on generating more revenue. Naturally, it takes a while to close these kinds of sales; as Chuck noted, we've already witnessed a double-digit count of agreements finalized by our 2 teams selling side by side. So the energy out in the field is positive. For Splunk — the more meaningful measure, we discussed revenue since that clearly appears on the P&L. For them, ARR is the key indicator. Their ARR keeps expanding at a double-digit pace, which matches precisely where it stood when they last reported as a public company. So we're still observing solid momentum and starting to notice the first signs of the sales organizations truly collaborating. We've also completed quite a few product integrations; I believe Chuck brought up a number of them during his portion of the script. Consequently, as time passes, it will become increasingly difficult to determine what is — given these combined product offerings, what counts as Splunk revenue versus what counts as Cisco revenue. Let me be clear, we've factored in the complete effect of where we anticipate the merged business to land. However, I believe that over the longer horizon, figuring out how much of that gets attributed to legacy Splunk versus how much gets attributed to legacy Cisco will become progressively more challenging. So here's what I'd say: it's incorporated — it's delivering strong results. We're already witnessing encouraging indicators of the sales teams working together, and all of that is reflected in our guidance.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#23

Absolutely, Scott — I believe this point matters quite a bit. As we mentioned, Splunk usually runs on a sales cycle of 6 to 9 months. And I think we closed more than 10 of those cross-sell deals last quarter, worked jointly by the Cisco sales force and the Splunk sales force, which was encouraging. Also — as I noted in my remarks — we completed the first cross-portfolio agreement that traditionally would have been a Cisco offer to one of our biggest customers in the U.S., and we actually closed it with Splunk included. So what we're seeing now is roughly what we'd have anticipated at this stage, perhaps even slightly ahead of where I'd have expected us to be.

George Notter

analyst
#24

I'd like to ask about how you're structuring the company around networking, security, and collaboration. Could you explain what's behind that move to bring them together? My guess is you'll mention that products need to work together, particularly when we're taking advantage of AI and large data sets. But could you take us through the specific reasons behind it?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#25

Sure, George, thanks. You've got it exactly right. You could give that answer instead of me. If you consider what sets us apart most from competitors in the market, it's really when we achieve deep cross integration throughout the portfolio and deliver a platform strategy to our customers. And given how quickly the AI revolution is progressing and what our enterprise customers require from us, and honestly, with security and networking growing ever more closely linked, I simply believed we needed one leader in charge. And if you look at what Jeetu has achieved in the 4 years he's been here, when he first took over the collaboration business, I think everyone recalls how that portfolio looked back then compared with how it's performing today, with double-digit growth this quarter; and clearly, with the security portfolio, he's delivered precisely what we anticipated; and I think our networking team is excellent. And I believe his emphasis on execution, innovation, and urgency will be very welcome there. So we're eager to see what the team achieves and the innovation they'll bring in the future.

Amit Daryanani

analyst
#26

I suppose to kick things off, Chuck, what you said about demand patterns from customers returning to a more typical state, plus orders posting positive growth, all of that sounds quite encouraging. Could you maybe set that against your outlook, where total revenue rises 3% with Splunk included, and help us put it in context? Clearly there's a worry out there that Cisco is shedding share. So perhaps you could explain how we should think about your revenue growth, and which headwinds from backlog normalization ought to be baked into that 3%, 3.5% revenue guide. That would help a lot in getting a clearer picture; and then maybe as a second question, Scott. Could you put numbers on the cost savings you anticipate from this reduction program? I understand that none of it will reach the bottom line. From what you're saying, you intend to put it back into the business. Still, just to give us a sense, what level of savings on a growth basis might you expect from these cost reduction efforts?

Richard Herren

executive
#27

Yes. Amit, regarding the first point, we've discussed this before. The headwind facing us in fiscal '25, which we brought up on the Q3 call and once more at our Investor Day, is that we still face a difficult compare in Q1, as you're aware. In Q1 of fiscal '24, the year that just closed, we had a sizable volume of product shipments coming out of excess backlog. To give you a rough figure, $4 billion of shipment was baked into those Q1 numbers. And clearly, that backlog can only be shipped one time. So we won't be able to ship it again in Q1 of this year. That doesn't just cause a distortion in the growth rates for Q1, it also has an effect across the full year; so one point we raised on the prior call was that if you took our core business growth rate and stripped out backlog and stripped out Splunk, you could do the simple arithmetic and determine what that growth rate is. And it falls within that same range we provided for the long-term growth rate. So that's essentially what sits beneath the good news we're seeing about demand going back to normal patterns, alongside the headwind that this generates for revenue growth during the year and in the guide. As for the cost reductions from the steps we're taking, it's really a situation very similar to last year, where we locate those efficiencies throughout the company and truly reallocate; so picture it as far more a reallocation exercise than a cost savings exercise. This reflects the same financial discipline we've shown you over the past couple of years; and as I mentioned when answering the earlier question, the defining feature of that is, when you look at the year, this was a difficult year when it came to revenue production. Even with the strict discipline we maintain, we managed to post an operating margin that stands as the best this company has ever achieved across its entire history. That's the right way to look at it. More of our resources need to be redirected toward the parts of our business growing most quickly, and we're accomplishing that by locating efficiencies and then shifting those expenses over.

Simon Leopold

analyst
#28

I'd like to dig into that $1 billion in additional AI orders you mentioned for fiscal '25. What I'm trying to figure out is whether you see this as essentially a repeat of the first $1 billion — same kinds of customers, same kinds of products — or whether we should expect the start of enterprise adoption for inferencing? What exactly characterizes that extra $1 billion? Then my second question is quick, and maybe a bit harder to answer: what figure are you planning for fiscal '25 OpEx? I think all of us are trying to get at that somehow.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#29

Thanks, Simon. I'll handle the AI question. What I'd say is that enterprise isn't built into it in any meaningful amount. We're starting to see the enterprise pipeline grow somewhat, but it remains mostly, predominantly what we've discussed before — the webscale infrastructure space. So should enterprise pick up substantially at some point, that number might end up higher. Another thing worth noting: I also think that with time, it will become increasingly hard to truly pin down which orders are tied to AI, because, as I mentioned earlier, we're now starting to see enterprises updating their infrastructure because of AI. So does that get counted as an AI order or not? Regardless, we'll keep measuring them the same pure way we have so far as we keep updating you on these numbers. But that's how I expect it to unfold across the year.

Richard Herren

executive
#30

And Simon, regarding what you asked second — clearly, we don’t provide guidance at that level for the entire year. We do give guidance — revenue has been provided. We’ve told you what to anticipate regarding EPS. However, for Q1, ranges for gross margin and op margin were also supplied. And there’s — and beneath the op margin line and OI&E, we’ve discussed how interest is affected by the money we used for acquiring Splunk. And I believe you get what that looks like; so an extra modeling point I’d offer is that as you examine the whole year, we mentioned the Q1 guide having gross margin within the 67% to 68% range and op margins within the 32% to 33% range. For the full year as well, it remains fairly solidly within that range.

Matt Niknam

analyst
#31

Regarding that platform strategy point, Chuck, perhaps you could address where it's gaining the most traction among your various customer groups in enterprise, SP, and public sector; and for these purchasing choices that mostly involve acquiring networking and security next to each other, what portion is genuinely being executed in tandem at present? And where do you expect that to head down the line?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#32

Thanks, Matthew. Look, I believe these are mainly taking place among the big enterprise and big public sector clients. That's where we observe it. And during the quarter, we had big enterprise and big public sector clients who actually completed these 9-figure deals. So it's occurring among a wide range of clients across various industries. And I'd say that regarding security and networking, you're witnessing it, especially at the — at the cloud edge. As you're aware, when SD-WAN and the cloud security converge. But we're also starting to see it, and we're going to actually push it in the data center with Hypershield, where security is deeply embedded in the network. And I think one of the main advantages of the organizational change we've implemented is that you'll see increasingly more innovation that will actually originate from us, where security and the network are more closely linked going forward.

Richard Herren

executive
#33

And Matt, regarding the latter portion of your inquiry — specifically, the scale of those sizable agreements and their destination — here's a fast statistic for you. We mentioned that product order expansion, excluding Splunk, came in at 6%. If you removed those big ones — our term is whole portfolio agreements — if you took them out of each year, in fact, the increase in product order bookings rises somewhat. Consider it as landing within the same band; so although that quarter performed well on that front, as Q4 always does, it isn't the disproportionate force behind our growth. We're witnessing expansion truly in every area.

Ittai Kidron

analyst
#34

I've got a couple of things to ask. To start, Chuck, your prepared remarks and the slides included 4 instances of platform deals worth $100 million, with several platforms inside each individual customer, I believe. Could you perhaps discuss where — every one of those customers was already a substantial Cisco customer prior to these renewals and agreements. So what I'm really asking is, what was the added value there? Which product areas do you find yourself actually getting more out of an existing footprint when you bring these platform deals to the table? Then my second thing has to do with the cloud order growth. Just 2 points, if I understand correctly, which isn't terribly strong this quarter. Could you break that down a bit further?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#35

Sure. Appreciate it, Ittai. That's correct. The bulk of these sizable platform deals certainly involve customers we already have. Sometimes these are the first — it's our first one with them; other times it's a renewal of a deal from 3 or 5 years back. So it differs. And across all those customers, I'd say the major item that likely represents growth for us right now is the genuine acknowledgment that our security portfolio has become far more robust. The innovation coming out of that platform, I believe, is among the benefits customers are genuinely noticing via these platform deals. Beyond that, once you dig into the use cases, it matters a lot to recognize that a number of them are in fact pursuing these today to get ready for AI workloads, such as the AI-powered robotics case we mentioned before. Regarding cloud order growth, that 2% came from a mix of service provider and — both traditional service providers and cloud, meaning the hyperscalers. Looking at the hyperscalers specifically, we experienced quite substantial growth across the second half of the year and in Q4. We described it as double digits. I'd simply say it was significant, and genuinely encouraging to witness; and like Scott mentioned before, we believe this digestion period now sits behind us, as we'd hoped and expected by the close of Q4. So we anticipate seeing typical purchasing patterns from the hyperscalers in the quarters ahead.

James Fish

analyst
#36

You're cutting 7% of your staff. Yet from what you've said, Scott, it comes across as more or less the gross figure. So can we look at what the net figure might be by the close of the year, and just how many workers truly get impacted? Then, as a second question, clearly Gary has held his position for a while now, and a fresh fiscal year is beginning for you folks. So given this continuing restructuring, plus this shift leaning further toward selling a platform, how are you approaching adjustments to sales initiatives or pay plans?

Richard Herren

executive
#37

Sure, Jim, I'll take that first part. I'd say — once more, regard the cut we're making as far more a matter of reallocating than of saving on headcount. In certain instances, the gains in efficiency we'll realize are going to come from — by relocating into cheaper-cost sites. So doing the arithmetic isn't so simple as saying, look, if you had 90,000 people previously plus 7%, I'd expect you to land at whatever that calculation gives. A portion of this won't amount to merely a one-for-one shift in headcount. It's going to be savings arising from directing additional work into cheaper-cost sites. So it's — I doubt the arithmetic will serve you well when you attempt to flesh out your model.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#38

Absolutely. Regarding Gary — who isn't joining us on today's call — I'd say his attention is on a few things. Incentives to encourage cross-selling of Splunk are being introduced across Cisco's sales organization. We'll provide incentives to the security salespeople within Cisco; over time, we're examining how the Splunk sales team could sell Cisco's security portfolio; yet what he cares about most is simplicity. His emphasis is on having more quota-carrying reps on the front lines. His emphasis is on adding capacity within the enterprise segment, where platform deals like these show up more often, plus more systems engineering, and genuinely intensifying the push behind core networking and infrastructure. So I believe you'll witness a truly refreshed push to concentrate the teams, not just on certain software assets and security, but on genuinely intensifying the push behind core networking.

Ben Reitzes

analyst
#39

Chuck, I'd like to dig a bit deeper into what you called getting ready for AI — that increase in orders where customers are preparing. Were you referring to wireless orders, where buyers expect to run apps? Or did you mean they plan to do training on top of certain LLMs? I was hoping you could give us more detail, if you have any, about what they're actually using it for, which part of your portfolio is showing it, and whether you have a feel for what exactly they're getting set up for. And then — apologies. My second question concerns NVIDIA. On that one: based on your orders, enterprise appears to be a minor piece when it comes to AI orders; but I'm curious whether you're seeing any interest yet from the NVIDIA partnership?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#40

Thanks, Ben. Regarding enterprise AI, here's what I'd say: certain customers, like those platform deals we mentioned, purchase the whole portfolio to refresh their infrastructure, because they already have applications identified, such as the ones we referenced earlier. In other instances, they're upgrading their data center infrastructure along with their core network infrastructure so they're ready for smaller training models on their own private data, and/or inference. It simply differs case by case. And honestly, I think many customers would tell you they aren't really certain what the applications will ultimately look like. But one thing I know for sure: I need modern, up-to-date infrastructure in place to be ready for that. So I'll just go in and figure out where those investments need to be made. Sometimes that may mean updating my switching infrastructure. Sometimes it may mean new wireless. We saw data center switching grow in double digits as well. So I'd call it fairly broad-based; and as for the NVIDIA partnership, it's too early. We haven't even reached early field trials with that solution yet. So I don't believe there's much to share at this point.

Aaron Rakers

analyst
#41

Staying with the AI topic, regarding that $1 billion in orders — during the prior quarter, I believe you mentioned having visibility toward that $1 billion as we head into fiscal '25. I was wondering whether you could break that down somewhat: are these back-end network deployments, going up against Arista, or the internal switching products the cloud providers make themselves? Also, is it switching? Is it Silicon One, a complete switch? Can you offer any level of detail inside those $1 billion of orders? Then I will pose my next question. When we consider what Splunk adds in fiscal '25, if we take the fourth quarter's contribution and annualize it, that leads me to believe core Cisco is roughly flat, sort of baked into the guidance you gave for the entire year. Does that sound right? And if it does, what is your view on networking growth for the full-year guidance?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#42

Yes; regarding the $1 billion, I would describe it as mostly back end, and it combines Ethernet together with optics; our optics business is quite strong, and we are going up against the competitors you would expect us to face. Sometimes it is a system we provide. Sometimes it is — maybe a white box option. Yet a major edge we hold is being able to actually sell them Silicon. We can sell them — we can assist them in building white boxes, or we can sell them integrated systems, and it involves all of those elements plus optics; and as for the second item, would you like to take it?

Richard Herren

executive
#43

Yeah. So Aaron, this connects to something I mentioned before — that first quarter of fiscal '24, which is the comparison we're up against this quarter, included a fairly large amount of excess backlog clearance. As we discussed at Investor Day, that clearance landed somewhere between $3.5 billion and $4 billion during Q1 a year ago. Clearly, that isn't going to happen again in Q1 of this year. So even though demand is normalizing nicely pretty much everywhere, we're facing that year-over-year headwind from the fact that we can't replicate that big backlog clearance in Q1 of this year. Factor that into your calculations and the picture for the core business comes out differently.

Adrienne Colby

analyst
#44

This is Adrienne Colby, speaking on behalf of Atif. When it comes to inventory levels returning to normal, and tying into the earlier question, what's the right way to view quarterly trends for the business? Have we essentially returned to a situation with the usual seasonal patterns we saw before? Or, given how the business mix has shifted, are things different now? And then, thinking ahead to fiscal year '25, how should we frame the January dynamic involving Splunk? From what I can tell, historically that quarter was quite strong for Splunk.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#45

I'll handle the first part, and then, Scott, you can pick up the second. Our view is that normal ordering patterns have finally returned. We were actually discussing this while preparing for today's call, and it has genuinely been 4 years of dealing with all of this — first COVID, then the supply chain shock, and finally having to work through that digestion challenge at the end. So we're very pleased to be at this point. That said, we do believe normal ordering patterns are back, meaning it ought to resemble how things were before the pandemic. Scott?

Richard Herren

executive
#46

Yeah. And regarding how January plays out for Splunk, similar to what you see across most enterprise software businesses, they don't just have a back-end weighted pattern going into what used to be their Q4 — that January quarter you mentioned — but within that quarter, things also get heavily weighted toward the very final stretch, correct? And that's something you observe with nearly every enterprise software company. One adjustment we've needed to make since acquiring Splunk is that our fiscal quarters don't wrap up on the month's final day. Ours conclude on the last Saturday of that quarter's final month. As a result, you typically have a gap of 2 or 3 days that would have marked the usual close of Splunk's quarter but doesn't land at the close of ours. So the effect on our second — that January quarter is our Q2 — will be somewhat muted. It'll be somewhat muted since we're dropping 2 or 3 days, and those are 2 or 3 significant days within our Q2. A portion of that will spill into Q3 for us.

Karl Ackerman

analyst
#47

You said that the process of working through inventory for hyperscale and enterprise networking is mostly finished. However, Scott, I believe you mentioned — more broadly — that pricing acted as a bit of a drag on product revenue during the quarter. Could you address how quickly order visibility has been improving since the start of this year? Put differently, has that visibility stretched from 3 months to, let's say, 6 to 9 months? Then secondly, given your fiscal '25 revenue outlook, do you expect the pricing backdrop to steady or get better from this point?

Chuck Robbins

executive
#48

Regarding our capacity to look ahead and gauge the demand side, absent some unexpected shock, I'd say the teams have returned to the visibility they normally have. I'm actually trying to recall what that even looked like; it's been such a long time since we experienced it. Still, I think the — they obviously possess far better visibility across the coming 90-day window. That's — we've observed that over the past couple of quarters. And clearly, with this last Q4, where we believe that problem is now behind us, I think you'll see it going forward. And I think we'll keep seeing improved visibility into the later quarters compared with where we stood across the prior couple of years.

Richard Herren

executive
#49

Regarding price stability, Karl, you have to look fairly far back, just like Chuck mentioned. But consider the period prior to when supply chain problems arose, and then naturally the price hikes we implemented since our costs rose considerably. As you'll recall, some time passed before those higher prices converted into orders, and before those orders moved through the backlog and were delivered. At this point, we've essentially caught up to the stage where pricing has stabilized. So anticipate that price effect returning to what it has traditionally been. Each transaction we engage in involves competition, correct? Consequently, there's invariably a degree of pricing rivalry involved, yet expect it to fall within the historical range, roughly somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5% each quarter.

Ahmed Sami Badri

executive
#50

Appreciate that, Karl. At this point, I'd like to pass things along once more to Chuck, who has a few final thoughts for us.

Chuck Robbins

executive
#51

Thank you. Once more, I'd like to express our appreciation to everyone who has joined us today; having you here means a lot. Our gratitude goes out to the teams, the customers, and the partners who helped us close out a difficult year on a strong note. As we've said before, in our view the process of working through inventory has wrapped up, and at this point we are moving back toward demand conditions that look more typical. Seeing demand broaden across so many areas during the quarter encourages me, along with the steady strides we are making alongside our customers in AI — cybersecurity especially — plus core networking, and we are starting to observe that the enterprise segment is genuinely receiving a boost from AI. The headway we've achieved with Splunk, including early momentum on a number of deals, has us quite happy. Continued financial discipline is something you can rely on from us, just as you have always witnessed. And you can likewise always rely on us to keep putting money into the future, which is what we are doing across AI infrastructure, networking, silicon, and cyber, in order to fuel growth and profitability down the road. So, thank you for spending time with us, and we can't wait to see every one of you before long.

Ahmed Sami Badri

executive
#52

We appreciate everyone being here. The upcoming quarterly session for Cisco, covering the results of our first quarter in fiscal year 2025, is scheduled for Wednesday, November 13, 2024, starting at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, which is 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. Now I'll pass things along to Michelle.

Operator

operator
#53

We appreciate you joining the conference call today. Should you wish to hear the whole call, you can dial (866) 510 to 4837. Those calling from beyond the U.S., please use (203) 369 to 1943; that wraps up today's call. You're free to hang up now.

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