Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
January 15, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
James Ricchiuti
analystWelcome, everyone, again, to the 27th Annual Needham Growth Conference. The next presentation will be a fireside with Clean Harbors. We're pleased to have with us today, the company's Co-CEO, Mike Battles; and CFO, Eric Dugas. Also with us today, Senior VP, Investor Relations, Jim Buckley. In the front row. My name is Jim Ricchiuti, senior analyst in the equity research department at Needham, covering industrial tech companies. I think most people are very familiar with Clean Harbors. Thank you both for joining us today.
Michael Battles
executiveMy pleasure. Thanks for you, and thanks for the Needham...
James Ricchiuti
analystLet's start off. I think just the discussion with the -- extremely unfortunate events that are taking place in Southern California have -- so a couple of questions. Have any of your operations being impacted. I know the situation is very fluid, but any broader implications for your operations as you think about this over the near term?
Michael Battles
executiveYes. So kind of our first concern is the people of Clean Harbors and there were -- there are a handful of people who have lost their homes, which is tragic, and we're working with them to provide housing and other opportunities for them. None of our structures in Southern California have been affected. Certainly, routes have been disrupted, air quality problems that are existing in Southern California are slowing things down. The thing with -- and so we've established a command center, we've got our event team out there. We have the sales force kind of circling the wagons, if you will, to make sure that we can respond. Some parts, we can't even get into yet so it's not even an opportunity to go additionally to sell, but so there's going to be some push on that to clean it up. And then we should be in a good spot. Now the thing with fires and hazardous waste, they do the work for us, which is kind of a problem. It doesn't make the air any better, but it certainly doesn't help -- the waste is not on the ground, it's in the air so that's a bit of a challenge on balance. We think there's opportunity here, probably a net -- I have to say here on -- sitting here in mid-January about what the effect would be probably net neutral if I had to guess today because some things have slowed down, some sites are closed. Some people are not at work because they're dealing with personal situations. So it is -- more to come on that one, but we'll see. It's a tragedy. It's awful.
James Ricchiuti
analystYes. Let's turn to the Environmental Services business, where you guys have shown really solid organic growth, 6% or so each quarter or through the first 9 months, well above GDP. Remind us, was that always the case pre-pandemic.
Michael Battles
executiveYes. So I'll take this and Eric, please feel free to chime in. When we think about going back or people who followed us for 10, 15 years, we always said it's a GDP-plus type of growth. And the pluses would be increased regulation enforcement events, large-scale events. East Palestine would be a good example of that. Pricing and also captives closing. And so there's 40 captives out there. They incinerate waste on-site and they can close because of increased regulation, increased compliance. So those 4 have been the driver of that. So -- and again, going back 5, 10 years, I've been with the company for 12, you'd say that -- if GDP is 3, well, that's like 4 or 5. And as you said, Jim, it's growing at a much faster rate than that. And why is that? A, because we think there's been the chemical renaissance more investment in the U.S., more investment in production and manufacturing. I also think that there's an ability for good competitive environment has been allowing us to price faster than inflation. And so all these things have been driving that. I don't think that changes with the turn of the calendar. I think those things kind of continue to grow. When you think about our business, and you said this as 6% for the first 9 months of the year, organic growth is probably closer to 7% and so I think that -- I don't think that changes. And even with that 7% in the Industrial Services business, which we'll talk about in a minute, that's been flat to down. So that -- the other parts of the business were growing at closer to 10%. I don't see that changing in 2025. I think that we've been able to price faster than inflation, and I think we'll be able to drive margin improvement over the next 4 or 5 years.
James Ricchiuti
analystYes. And you've been talking about pricing, and it has been clearly a tailwind for this part of the business. When did discussions begin with respect to pricing actions, do they start the year? Are these conversations that kind of roll through the year, depending on different factors, help us with that.
Eric Dugas
executiveSure. I'll take that one, Jim. And I would say just a real quick answer is they're ongoing throughout the year depending on the customers. So I think over the last 4 or 5 years, the team has done a great job. We have a team dedicated to pricing strategies. So we have a lot more empirical information around pricing. We look at our customers holistically. So we look at what is their pricing today? What type of margins do we drive from the customer? How many LOBs do they take from us. And we kind of look at that, as I said, holistically, and quartile to customers and develop good pricing strategies. We aim today to look at the pricing associated with all the customers we can. And sometimes there's contract limitations, but those are few and far between at this point, but try to look at them at least on an annual basis. During the periods of higher inflation, sometimes these discussions would take place multiple times a year. But we're kind of in a 1-year rotation right now or 1-year cadence, I should say. And we get that together. We meet strategically. We meet with our sales and ops folks and then we approach the customer and position ourselves and talk about the value we bring. Where there is pushback, we can leverage the different lines of businesses with one another to really bring the most value to our customer. But I mean, let's be clear, the #1 thing is that we deliver good, safe, consistent services to our customers that they value. That is what is driving our pricing so.
Michael Battles
executiveAnd the ability to -- there's limited opportunity for alternatives. And so I think that's been able to -- we've battled with our sales organization to drive pricing and the win rate has been flat. And so we've been able to drive this type of price increase without losing customers. In my mind, we got more to do there. And I think that when we hit that wall, customers will tell us with their feet and they haven't done that yet.
James Ricchiuti
analystAnd Mike, you were starting -- you referenced one piece of the ES business. It might be helpful to remind investors because it has changed a little bit -- some of the largest components of that business. And then I have a follow-up to that, but...
Michael Battles
executiveSure. So when you think about -- so look, the guidance has us around $6 billion of revenue. That's what the consensus estimate. It's a little under $6 billion for the year. About $5 billion of that is in Environmental Services, and that's broken down into 4 major pieces. The way I'll simply say it, you have the Technical Services business. Think about that as large-scale hazardous waste disposal going out to a Dow plant or a DuPont once so we can get in a tanker car, full of hazardous waste delivering that directly to an incinerator through a direct burn stream. That's large-scale waste. We have the SK branch business, similar type of business, only small scale, going to Jim's Autobody Shop, going to Jim's paint shop and picking up 5 drum, 3 drums on a route-based work, small plant generators still very profitable. Those drums are very profitable work, and that's been a good growth engine for us. That's kind of smaller quantity generator -- same type of profiling and hazardous waste needed for the large scale. Then in the more Industrial Services, think about that as going out and doing -- going through a refinery or a large chemical company, they shut down for 2 weeks a year, 3 weeks a year, and we go into a complete turnaround. They shut the plant down. We go in and clean out pipes, take the hazardous waste offsite and manage that through an industrial turnaround. And then we're on site every day to an insight program, managing their hazardous -- day-to-day hazardous waste needs. And the last piece, the piece we made an investment in with the HEPACO acquisition back in 2024, is in field service. And that was -- that grew for the first 9 months of the year at 48%, and about 12% of that is organic. And what drove -- and drive that is utilities with emergency response or emergency response at a customer site. There's 3 drums in there. It's built over and it's bubbling. We've got to get out there within the next couple of hours. And so that is -- those are the 4 major components of the business. I'd say Industrial Services, $1.4 billion, Field Services close to $1 billion now with the addition of HEPACO and the growth they've experienced. Tech services and SK branch about $1 billion each, $1.2 billion each. And so that kind of adds up to get to your $5 billion. Again, 3 of those businesses have grown double digits this year organically. Industrial Services actually went backwards. Why that happened is because oil prices went down all year. That put pressure on our refinery customers, which is a big part of our business, that put pressure on us to do -- we need to -- they need to generate their numbers. They don't want to do a big turnaround. They want to postpone those turnarounds until next year or the year after. They can't postpone them forever. And so that's creating, I think going to create an opportunity for us in 2025, as oil prices have recovered a little bit, we hope here to stay, and that's going to drive more investment in Industrial Services. So my point being is we're going to grow -- for the first 9 months of the year, we grew organically 7%. And that's with a big part of the business going negative 1 or 2.
James Ricchiuti
analystThank you for that. Field Services, I want to touch on HEPACO acquisition, it's coming up on a 1-year anniversary end of March so it sounds like the business has performed well. I don't know whether you characterize it as better than expected. How have you realized some of the synergies that you expected? Maybe just talk a little bit about that.
Eric Dugas
executiveSure. So I've been pretty close to that acquisition. So I'll take that one, Jim. But when you look back at HEPACO about a year ago, I think, so far so good, very pleased with the acquisition. We felt like it would be a great fit because it fit right in with our legacy field services business nicely. But when you think about the value we brought to this acquisition, some of the synergies we had targeted, I'd say we've probably done a little bit better, particularly on one front where HEPACO had a nationwide kind of 1800 hotline where they had developed established relationships with customers, but they could call in when a spill occurred, and they would essentially send out crews to respond. But a lot of times, those crews were made up of subcontracted parties. We were able to internalize a lot of that work. ES space was a synergy area that we were really excited about, but -- and we were able -- and we always had plans to internalize that work to our legacy field services folks because we have them across the country. HEPACO was more established kind of mid-Atlantic Midwest area. So when they had responses out West, we were able to respond this year at probably a higher frequency than we had anticipated. So that's been really, really good. I think the other thing too is HEPACO really had some really good relationships with railroad companies and some trucking companies. And we've seen some significant and large opportunities this year relative to emergency response in those areas. We talked about it in our Q2 call earlier this year, where we saw the volume of large responses kind of increase. But overall, we're really excited, really happy with the acquisition. I guess the last thing I would make and kind of speaks to how we look at the future, especially in our ES space and particularly as FS, we're seeing probably more emergency response calls coming in. And what is driving that? And we sit down and think about it, and I really do think companies today when bad things happen to the environment, they're handling them in a more appropriate way. They've always wanted to do the right thing. But I think there's more pressure on companies to bring in the experts, handle this environmental action, the appropriate way, do the right thing and avoid litigation, and we can help them do all that. So you really do think there's continued growth through that acquisition. And now that platform is a $1 billion platform under Clean Harbors is kind of that ER field services work. So it's gone well.
Michael Battles
executiveAnd when we think about field service prospectively. So we don't -- so when we think -- we call out kind of large-scale events, East Palestine is a perfect example of that in 2024. We did about $30 million, and we called that out in Q2 and Q3. So that's probably a headwind going into 2024. And so we're not going to -- as we give out guidance for 2025, we're not going to probably speak to any large-scale events, but there's more of them happening and that's the fact. And whether they're -- there's about 20,000, 21,000 calls a year. They have 21,000 lottery tickets as one of our -- one of my colleagues has said recently that could turn out to be a big deal. And so the fact that we have this footprint and we're growing this business gives us opportunity for us. Again, we don't really model it, but certainly, it's part of the value proposition of the company.
James Ricchiuti
analystYou guys had another important milestone for the ES business this year, ribbon cutting in October marked the opening of the Kimball, Nebraska incinerator. How do we think about the scale-up of Kimball in '25? I think you've suggested EBITDA contribution in the neighborhood of $8 million to $12 million.
Eric Dugas
executiveYes. That's right. So continue -- well, first off, we were successful in starting up the plant later on in Q4. We did the official ribbon cutting in October and then opened up the plant a little bit later. So far, so good from what we hear from the team. I know Mike was actually out there a few weeks back and saw it in person, and he's reiterated the opinion of just really proud of the team, really proud of this brand new asset that we brought on about a $200 million investment and couldn't be happier with his visit there. But as we look out into 2025, Jim, there's lots of tailwinds that we view in the business. We see tailwinds from reshoring. We see tailwinds from infrastructure. We see tailwinds from captive operators sending more waste streams to us, certainly PFAS. I'm sure we can talk about a little bit. But all those waste streams along with the demand that we're seeing today, we believe we'll fill up the capacity fairly quickly in the grand scheme of things. In 2025, as you said, $8 million to $12 million, we're going to be measured in terms of how we ramp up that facility. We want to make sure we ramp it up appropriately with the right types of materials so that we break it in correctly. Past experiences, we had a little more ups and downs when we opened up El Do 7 years ago than we would have liked and trying to take those learnings and utilize them here and really have a successful first year and then move towards kind of the $40 million EBITDA contribution that we're looking from this facility long term.
James Ricchiuti
analystAnd that ties into that -- the next question I have is with El Dorado. Is there something that can help inform us about that. But it sounds like it was -- that was also a bit of a learning experience, and you apply those lessons.
Eric Dugas
executiveAbsolutely. But I think the last thing I'd make with the comparison to El Do. El Do, when we brought that plant online, the capabilities of that plant at the time were to be able to handle the high hazardous waste streams that are coming into the network. Kimball, again, taking some learnings Kimball, we did the exact same thing with some added capabilities in bells and whistles. So we've seen our drum count coming into the network being up roughly 15% from last year in 2024. So kind of towards the end of construction earlier this year, late last year, we decided to do some incremental capabilities to be able to take in more drums, things like that to upscale the facility. So again, a great asset, particularly with all these tailwinds behind us, Jim, just really excited that we got this thing going and looking forward to ramping it up.
James Ricchiuti
analystAnd it looks like a timely investment just given...
Michael Battles
executiveAnd when you think about the $40 million, Eric has made a good point about kind of do the math on the $40 million, take 70,000 tons f you can do the math pretty quickly. But that doesn't include the trans. That does include the pickup and the movement of all that waste. So that's -- and the cost savings of having another incinerator kind of in the middle of the country, I think that's kind of -- we talk about $40 million, but it's actually probably much better than that, depending on kind of how you think about kind of the cost -- the pricing we're going to do on the pickup and the trans. So I think that's something to keep in mind as you're putting out your long-scale models, it's going to take a couple of years, as Eric said earlier, it's going to take a couple of years to kind of get to that kind of run rate. But I do believe that, that's going to be kind of -- just like we're seeing it today, we're seeing margin expansion today from the investment we made in El Dorado back in 2017 and that's including the incinerator plus all the trans and all the work to pick it up. So we're seeing that benefit. We're going to see -- we'll be here in 7 years, talking about that in the same way.
James Ricchiuti
analystYes. But I was going to say the timing of this also seems -- it seems well thought because what we were hearing, first of all, we all know there's increasingly complex waste streams that you guys are being called in for, but there are also expectations, there's going to be a stronger industrial economy. And then you touched on it, increased capacity in petrochemicals and whatnot. And what I wanted to get to on this also, and it ties into the idea of captive going after some of the captives, what is this going to enable. And we'll talk a little bit more about 3M and what happened there, but just in general, what -- trying to frame what Kimball does for you, other than that nice EBITDA contribution?
Michael Battles
executiveSure. So I'd say that -- so we've gotten some questions over the -- since we did the deal and closed on the incinerator around increased capacity in our network, both between us and our competitor opening up whatever number you pick as far as incremental capacity. And is that going to put pressure on pricing? Is that going to put pressure on our network as far as -- and I'm here to tell you that I don't -- I couldn't -- I think the opposite. I think we should be thinking about opening up another incinerator like starting that planning process sooner than later because I'm of the view that we've been growing this drum capacity, as Eric said, we had a 15% drum capacity increase year-over-year, it's going to continue. And so we're going to fill up whenever Veolia opened up, they said midyear, Okay, great. Let's -- I think there's going to be so much need in the marketplace. Industrial production over the past few years has been met, down flat. And let's talk about it actually growing -- and if that were to happen, then what happens. I just -- I'm of the view that it really is going to be a need. I don't see it as pricing -- first of all, the stuff never goes on the sale. Incinerator capacity never goes on sale. We own 60%, 70% of the marketplace, pick a number. We're not going to slit our own wrist. We're never going to drop that price. And it's 1 incinerator in Veolia. They're not -- they spend a lot of money for that. We don't know how much. I don't really care. It's going to be -- they're going to need to get a return on that as well. So I'm of the view that not only is pricing going to continue to grow, we're going to need to start thinking about another incinerator. And when is that going to happen? Because it does take 5 years from the time we decide to actually get it kind of on waste, if you will, at least that. And so that's something that I'm of the different -- I'm of the view that the pricing is going to continue, and there's going to be no discounts happening here. And so I want to just be clear about that. We get a lot of questions on a lot of network capacity coming online. I just want to take this opportunity to kind of lay at least my view as a CEO of the company, that we're not going backwards on this. That's for sure. And when we think about captive. So captive had been -- we talked to our captives all the time. There's 40 captives out there. Captive incinerators for people who don't know, they're incinerators that sit on a customer site, the waste gets generated on site, never leaves the site and gets incinerated right there. Now the challenge with those things is that there's more regulations, more standards. And frankly, we couldn't take it. Like we have all these incinerators. We have 9 incinerators, now we have 10 with Kimball, we just -- we had a backup. We had a backlog. We couldn't even take it. And so the fact that we're hopefully getting after our backlog and getting that to a more reasonable levels, should give our customers and our captives more of a reason to say, "Hey, look, okay, I'll close my captive, I'll give you that waste because I have -- we have the capacity to handle it, where I'd say, a year ago, we did not. Well, I sat up on the stage and said we had backlog, deferred revenue is going up that's not necessarily a good thing. It's a good thing from a short-term investment standpoint, but we don't want to double handle that waste. We don't want to keep our waste on that site, we want to move it. We want to get it out of the network. It's expensive to hold on to that waste. So I think a more reasonable level of deferred and backlog, I think, is a healthier thing to our customers and allowing our customers -- our captive customers to make that big decision to close their incinerator and give us that waste.
James Ricchiuti
analystMike, do they necessarily have to close? Or because isn't it also a case where there are some waste streams that they should not be handling and maybe others that they can handle. I don't know.
Michael Battles
executiveThe store is open for any and all. We can run the incinerator. We can buy the incinerator. We can close the incinerator. I mean all of these I'm open. We have all those, it's a math exercise. We got to prove the math that we can do it cheaper and they can do it themselves. And including -- with the challenge, of course, is as you know, Jim, when you do close a captive and you lose that permit, there is no going back. You've lost that permit forever and getting a new permit is very, very difficult. And also you have to clean up the site. And so that's expected. And so those -- you got to prove that math and what we did at 3M, as Eric said earlier today, was that we're helping them clean up the site as well and so -- because we can do that with our remediation team. So that really is the value proposition. I do think it's very real. And I do think that we don't need captives to close to kind of get -- to ramp up Kimball. I think that's -- we didn't make that assumption. But I do think the captives closing and where they come to us or come to our competitors can help the marketplace.
Eric Dugas
executiveBut I think we do see a confluence of different considerations that captive owners need to consider those being increased cost to operate, those meaning the specialty and knowledge to operate those being changing regulations and compliance matters that aren't getting any easier in order to control emissions. And now another consideration of seeing some incremental capacity opening up. So if I'm a captive owner, now I'm really -- I have all these confluence of factors in consideration. Logic would say, "Hey, they seriously got to consider this." They want to focus on their core operations, not running an incinerator now it's maybe the time to think about going to a partner that I already know that already handles some of my waste streams in a more -- in a greater way.
Michael Battles
executiveIndustry leading safety record, industry leading compliance record.
Eric Dugas
executiveAnd this has been going on for decades now and we would expect that will continue.
James Ricchiuti
analystYes. You touched on industrial production, new administration next week. You've got same party controlling Congress. Just any observations as to how you're thinking about this and how it might impact the business?
Eric Dugas
executiveI mean, I think, Jim, we get the question a lot, and we ask it of ourselves. And I think we come to the conclusion that for the last 40-some odd years, we've managed the business fairly successful through Democrats, Republicans, split houses, whatever the case may be. And if you think about what we do, it's really about health, human health, environmental health and doing things that are great for earth and people. And so I don't think that changes under a new administration. So I think we'll continue to perform well. We performed well 4 years ago through this administration. We're hopeful maybe one area where we see a little bit more action is kind of on the acquisition front and getting things through kind of government approval and maybe that's helpful to us from that perspective. But otherwise, I would -- we don't see any huge impediments to the new administration.
James Ricchiuti
analystYes, Eric, it's maybe a good segue to PFAS. And as you're thinking about the opportunity as it relates to PFAS change at all? And it's complicated because it's -- that's also a state -- a local issue and in addition to being an EPA issue...
Michael Battles
executiveYes. I guess I would say around PFAS is that we talk about -- so a couple of things. First of all, we're doing another emissions test at one of our incinerators with the Department of Defense and the EPA on site. We did that in the end of 2024 a couple of months ago, and we're going to come out with that report. When it's finalized end of Q1, early Q2, we're hopeful it's very positive and gives -- it just proves again that we are -- we can handle large-scale PFAS incineration in our network. When I think about it for a minute, and I read the same newspapers you read, you can't go 2 or 3 days without reading another PFAS article in the paper around these forever chemicals and what we do about those forever chemicals and they're really bad and they're in everywhere. Now they're in farmland, they're on the soil, so it's biosolids and all that great stuff. I mean, I want to try to tell the New York Times or whatever is like you're missing the other half of the story. We have the solution today at scale, that can solve this problem, and we need to do a better job, I need to do a better job of marketing that and telling that story to get people to understand that there is a solution out there. Because I feel like how fast the government work, we've been talking about this for a very long time. And who knows, with the new administration, how fast and how slow these regulations come. We talk about new regulations coming this summer. That's what our environmental team tells us, our compliance team tells us, I don't know about that, but let's say that's true or not true, it doesn't matter because PFAS is dangerous. It's in the news every day, whether it's municipal or in the state level, there's going to be a lot of effort around cleaning that stuff up. We are the solution today. We can take the soil, we can do all things. We can do testing for water, we can do water remediation, we can do soil remediation. We can incinerate it or put it in our landfills. We know it's safe and it's coming. And so it's a small business today. It's an $80 million, $100 million business. It's going to grow 20%. I think there could be some step changes that do that today that things like our new incinerator would just be perfect for.
James Ricchiuti
analystOkay -- we've got 13 minutes left, and I still actually haven't asked the question. All right, but we have to -- tough year and more challenging than you expected. Talk to us about some of the adjustments you've made in the business. And also yes, there's some opportunities that you also highlighted, whether it's group 3, some of the partnerships, the strategic partnerships.
Michael Battles
executiveYes. So for people who don't know, just a quick refresher on. So you think about the $6 billion of revenue about $5 billion is the environmental services business where we spent the first 28 minutes talking about. And so now we're on the others, which is about $1 billion -- a little under $1 billion business for 2024. And what that is, is we take dirty motor oil from -- primarily from automotive or our industrial customers as well, and we refine it through a re-refining process and make base oil out of which is base oil is a building blocks of motor oil. So then we can do it again. We can make our own motor oil, we can sell it and package it through our closed-loop system. So that's the business. What's happened is that in this market, we're selling motor oil or base oil compared to major oil manufacturers, and we're a price taker. We have very little control over the price we sell that base oil for and so that's put pressure on us because oil prices, as you know, have gone down kind of all year. And so that's really put pressure on us because we collect the dirty motor oil. We set a price when we collect it, it takes 8 to 10 weeks to process it and sell it as base oil. And then when the prices are going down, we end up taking haircuts on that. And, by the way, the cost of transport has gone up and inflation, the cost of running the plants has gone up because of inflation. And so as such, it's getting more and more expensive to do. We really only have one lever, and that's how much we charge or pay for the dirty motor oil that we pick up at our customer site. And so we're going down a path of really being very aggressive on charging more for that used motor oil, UMO, as that what we call it. And so that used motor oil, we're going from a pay oil now to a heavy more charge for oil -- we did shut because that creates how much gallons we're going to lose because of the fact we went to a charge for oil process. Well, we shut down a re-refinery in effort to kind of drive -- to make less demand for us to run that plant more efficiently. And if we need to do more, we'll do more. And what that does is that it allows us to be more aggressive on that. It allows us to take some cost out from a route standpoint and also allows us to try to establish a baseline. What's happened is that -- for people who have been following us for a number of years, we keep going backwards. And we keep saying, well, this is the low mark. And we're at this 150 number, which is kind of the midpoint of our guide for 2024. We feel that is a low watermark because we feel like we are being very aggressive on the used motor oil collection pricing, and that should help us drive this. And we talk about it as because we've always been hesitant. We got to keep the plants full and now we're shutting down plants is I think it's the right answer because at the end of the day, our goal is to kind of drive profitability, not to collect as many gallons as we possibly can collect. And the other thing you mentioned, things we're doing that are smart, we're doing Group 3 motor well. We're making our own Group 3, which is full synthetic. That's a route-based exercise to drive Group 3. We're also established a relationship with BP Castrol, which has had some successes. They've announced one publicly. You can see it on their website so they are driving -- we're giving them the use -- we're picking up the used motor oil from their customers and supplying them with base oil, which they mix into their own base with their own blended products. So that's really been a big win for us. Those are smaller -- so that's the lever we have is under UMO. Those things are worth a few million bucks each and that's real money, but it's not going to be the game changer. The game changer is UMO pricing. That's the lever we have, we're going to put it hard.
James Ricchiuti
analystOkay. So after the Q3 results, the company revised the full year guide. Dug, talk to us about the puts and takes in the implied Q4 guide, which I guess has our actually $20 million spread.
Eric Dugas
executiveSure. Roughly a $20 million spread. So when you think about our guide in setting a range and kind of upside, downside from that midpoint, Jim. It's a lot of the same things that we see in a typical quarter. So when I think about upside, downside to the up, I mean we had some really nice emergency response jobs that we talked about in field services. So there's -- we don't know when those are going to come or how big they're going to be, but it always is a little bit of upside to our midpoint. Obviously, utilization at our plants and things like that can be upside or downside. There's been periods in the past where we have plant disruptions or whatnot. The Industrial Services business, although Q4 is not the busiest time of the year for that business, though, but some of the trends, we -- there's always mixed messages in terms of -- from customers too, hey, we're going to do this. We're not going to do this and then they end up delaying jobs. So there's plus or minuses in our guide from that. And then obviously, the one that's been most kind of volatile that Mike just touched on is the performance of SKSS. So what does customer demand look like? What is import, export imbalance look like in the quarter? And how does that impact pricing in North America and things like that. So those are always kind of the puts and takes, and those are pretty much what they were kind of in Q4 when we gave that guide.
James Ricchiuti
analystOkay. You won't be giving guidance, the Q4 results, you'll give the 2025 guidance. But I guess where I'm going with this next question is CapEx. You had some big CapEx outliers, that's coming down. There has been Improvements that are ongoing and working capital, let's hope -- assume a stable economic environment. It seems to point to a good year for strong cash flow.
Eric Dugas
executiveYes, certainly. And I would start off by saying what we're looking to do is drive our free cash flow conversion levels to 40% of EBITDA or more over a longer period of time. Now you look at very accretive internal growth CapEx projects like Kimball, as we said, $200 million spend. Yes, Baltimore -- those things -- there's some more of those kind of in the pipeline that we'll consider. But when I think about cash flow for 2025, and we've touched on this, we'll have, depending on where Kimball ultimately lands for the year, $75 million to $80 million is what we'll spend in 2024 on Kimball. So we'll have that dropping off. Baltimore from a CapEx perspective, we'll have some things trailing into 2025, but it will be far less. We talked about in Q3 some working capital challenges that we saw largely from the oil business as well as the integration of HEPACO. I think the team has done a great job of getting after that in Qs 3 and 4. And hopefully, we see some dividends there. But some of that might roll into 2025 as well. So when you think about 2025 and you think about this year's guide in the low 300s, can add back that CapEx spend. Now there may be some things that come to fruition next year that will call out probably not of Kimball magnitude, but maybe some more -- something similar to Baltimore, and we'll call those out. But I think we're really targeting kind of that 40% and above. But we may be a little bit low if we're a little bit low going forward, it's for reasons that we think are quite accretive from an internal project perspective.
James Ricchiuti
analystClean Harbors has had a long and a pretty successful track record of doing M&A. It's -- acquisitions are part of that target that you laid out for investors. The 2027 target might be worth reminding folks about some of the key metrics. And then how would you characterize the M&A environment? You also brought up a good point. Maybe things change and things easier to get some of these deals.
Eric Dugas
executiveYes. Yes. So I'll start, and Mike, please kind of fill in any gaps that I may miss. But when you think about -- just to remind the audience, we introduced our Vision 2027, 2023 now -- March of 2023. And in that model, we had put forth kind of an organic growth model that we presented. And then we had an acquisitive model, which essentially was, okay, based upon where we want our debt-to-EBITDA ratios to be, we think we could invest roughly $4 billion over a 5-year period. So we've made acquisitions of about $0.5 billion this year with HEPACO and the Noble acquisition, so off to a good start. But what I would say, we'll continue to be very acquisitive. What I would say about kind of the current market, very competitive, very hot space. There's been significant large deals kind of recently lots in the news about it, lot more players in our space and certainly kind of multiples have increased, which I think on balance is a good thing for Clean Harbors. Our multiple has increased as well. But what I would say is we're going to be continuing to be acquisitive, just because we have a $4 billion target out there, we're not going to -- we're still going to do the deals that make economic sense for us, and we're going to weigh them against other internal accretive projects as well. But we have a very strong balance sheet. I think myself and the team, Mike, Eric, we've done a great job of being -- keeping and maintaining that strong balance sheet so that we can be active in this space. And I'd also say we're competing not only against strategics, but also other forms of capital. But a lot of these targets that are in our swim lane, we can bring a lot of value like we did with HEPACO. We can extract probably more synergies and be competitive. So certainly, when I think about capital allocation, acquisitions is one of the areas where we see the greatest return. We'll continue to do that. But we're realizing the landscape is changing a little bit as well.
Michael Battles
executiveYes, there are 4 ways to deploy capital. You can buy back stock, you can pay down debt, you could do M&A or you can do internal growth projects like Kimball, right? The debt, as Eric said, he's done a great job with the balance sheet, not -- under 2x levered, no need to screw around with that. M&A, it's getting more expensive. We look at a lot of deals. I can't stress that enough. Eric and I, Eric, in particular, looks at a lot of transactions. We're going to be thoughtful with your money. We're going to be thoughtful with your investments. We're not going to overspend for assets we're going to be -- we're going to wait. Internal capital investments, I think those have been great returns. We just thought we put some time talking about Kimball. That's going to be a grand slam home run. I guarantee it. It's here. And so there's more things like that we should do and could do. And for these buybacks, we think we can continue to do that. We think that's a great return on your money as well. And we have the authorization and the capital to do. So we consider ourselves as a growth company. We think M&A and internal investments is the way to go. But there's other opportunity as well.
James Ricchiuti
analystI think we're going to end it there.
Michael Battles
executiveGreat. Thanks again, Jim.
Eric Dugas
executiveThanks, Jim.
James Ricchiuti
analystThank you.
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