CodeLab Capital AS (CODE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 11, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Kristian Ikast
executiveGood morning, and welcome to PatientSky Group's Third Quarter Presentation. Welcome to everybody joining [ Hern Hoken ] in Oslo, and welcome to everybody joining online. Today, presenting, we have Christoffer Mathiesen, our group CFO, Christoffer has been part of the family for a year now since November 2021. And Christoffer has been the main architect by some of the things who will show you today and go through. Myself, I'm Kristian Ikast, I'm group CEO. I've been part of the PatientSky family since 2020. The agenda we have put together today is we'll start to do an overall of the overall PatientSky business, then we'll dig down to the business units and operational updates. We'll have a financial update by Christoffer, we'll do a normal Q&A session, and then we'll end up with the closing remarks and the outlook. Our vision is the same as been the whole time of the company, changing lives. What we are changing on is the way we are structured the way we are focusing. We have different focus in the company now. We can actually say we had 3 companies working on a stand-alone base within 1 company. So let me go through that. We are working to strengthen our strong EHR position in Norway, at the same time as we're working on international [ pictures]. We have -- first, from the left, we have our SaaS business which is our mature, revenue generating, and cash-generating business. Then we have our app. I put it honest venture, that's maybe not correct, we had some time, but we're investing more in the app now, come into that a bit later. So therefore, it's a part of our venture. We have the product management platform, which is a venture focused on the international scene, focused much more B2B. So if we go through the mission statement, that also clearly shows that our mission statement on the SaaS and the app is the same, empowering partners, patient and professionals to provide new, better, faster, cheaper patient care in the future. So that's well known as we work on as the market here in Norway. At the same time, on the international team, we are working on bridging the gap in tech to secure sustainable software for the future, much more a B2B focus. If I should take in a bit just to give a highlight on the different business units we have before we go into the details. We have the Norwegian business with the cloud -- the leading cloud-based EHR provider in Norway in our segment. We have more than 2,000 clinics. We have annual recurring revenue of NOK 187 million, 90% of our business is recurring, and we are cash generating. We have 3 main leading brands, that's our Hove Total, that's our Infodoc SKY, and PatientSky Clinic. Next business unit we have is the PatientSky app. The app has more than 2 million downloads and a very active user base with 230,000 unique users in average per month. It's increasing the stickiness for EHR customers. And this also has a commercial outlook for us. Lastly, we have our international product management platform. There, we are looking into modeling, et cetera, et cetera, I'll go much more into detail this, so I'll take it there. We have been having a higher focus as we have been talking about since the Q1 presentation, I think we mentioned it the first time to actually reducing our spend to still be able to investing in the future. So what we actually see here is that our SaaS business is very solid, profitable and a mature business. We have actually moved development resources into our SaaS business from our PMP business to actually be able to keep developing our SaaS business and at the same time, taking out the higher the cost we had on consultants doing job there. We have on our app side, we have also taken out some resources look like here, but we have actually added people from where we were before to make sure we can actually get the venture out and flying. But the PMP has been scaled down a lot. Why is that happening? Well, before we had our VAS business unit working on top of the platform. So when we started saying we delayed the platform, we could not have the VAS unit was actually doing standard modules across international border, they couldn't come out with a product when the platform was not launched. So we decided to put everything together in the PMP with the focus we'll talk about later. And therefore, you can see we also run a much more efficient business, but we have a really, really high momentum there. Last but not least, we have also taken out costs in the group. A big part of that is consultants we have taken out to increase the profitability of the overall company. It's not a nice exercise to take people out, let me make that clear. We have a lot of good colleagues. We also had to say goodbye to some good colleagues. But we have one job, and we want to make sure we can keep investing in the future, because we believe in, that's where we can change the future for a lot of people for changing lives. One of the things we have here, as we said before, we want to control our own destiny. We also have a backup plan here. If we don't succeed with the ventures, of course, then we can scale down the cost base on it or even maybe close it down. But for now, we have full focus and we have a plan we can carry through. All what you see here is things that already are executed. So that leads to a total -- it's based on a cost reduction with over NOK 40 million of annual effects. If I should just take a brief introduction to this one. If you start from the left, you can see that's where we were in April with 209 persons FTEs plus consultants. So that's the total number. We, back in May, started an exercise to say, how do we restructure, simplify our structure to actually be able to do our ventures in a controlled manner where we can control our destiny. So the next number you see, we have 192 and then it jumps down to 164. The 164 pro forma, that's actually the head count of what we have executed on already. So that means that's the things that already have done. This is secured. Why do we have April? That's because there's, of course, is notice period and has contract that has run out with consultants, et cetera, et cetera. So actually, from second quarter, we will see we have the cost out and have the new cost base. And as you can see on the right side, this is the monthly cost that we have here on personnel and consultants. We are going from around NOK 17 million, down to NOK 13 million. Where do that take us? That takes us to a position where we can start controlling our journey, be it in the safe boundary compared to our bond governance and, of course, running out of money. The ones you see on here is the ones where we have the lowest cash positions. As we talked about before, and Christoffer has said many times, we have a lot of invoicing going out in January and in July. So that means that end of Q2 and end of Q4, we'll be where we have the lowest amount of money. So if you look on the left side, we have invested heavy. Yes, we invested in ventures, but part of that is also investing in PVF, HMS and Infodoc. So we have also invested in the market position we have in Norway now. Some of the cost has also come in lately because the payoff model that has been on some of the acquisitions we've done. Christoffer will go into details on that a bit later. But if we then move over to '23, you can see we get into a much more balanced cash plan. And then we end up going into countries where we actually start building up [ money again ]. It's very important to say and understand this one, this is the cost initiatives we have executed on. These are the things we have in our own hand that have control over. On top of that, we, of course, have the ventures which we expect will start generating profit or money. We have other commercial initiatives, which we expect can come on top, but then we had them in as a potential upside or to mitigate, if anything goes wrong. So we think this is a solid plan we firmly believe in, and we are executed on. Yes. Now I'll dig down to the business units themselves. So we start with our first business unit, our largest, our most mature, but also our cash generating, both from a revenue and cash perspective. So overall, I know this one is a bit busy, but that's kind of the model we work with. If you look at the left side, you have our cloud business. We still have the strategy we always have everybody to the cloud. That's been the strategy for many, many years. On the right side, we have our prem business, which is some of the acquisitions we have done. If I start from the right one, we have ProMed on, it will probably be the last time you see one, but it's one of the one we closed down this year, therefore, we kept it on. On the left side, we have the PatientSky clinic. That's the therapists market, where we are 100% cloud product now. We don't have any on-prem, we're just chasing new business. The next one we have is Hove Total, which is focusing on the GPs and private doctors. Then we come with Infodoc SKY, which is the GP's specialist and emergency rooms. On the prem side, we have -- on the on-prem side, we have System X. System X, we are offering our customer a future-proof solution to go to our Hove products. We've been doing that for a long time. We have also actually initiated to make sure we do some migrations. What we have also learned here is actually, we would like to offer the customers that are the best solutions we have. And some of the customers, specialists, especially is actually the Infodoc SKY product is the best. So I think it's very important to say that we have now PatientSky have the whole Hove Total and Infodoc SKY under the same umbrella and the same team has been a huge benefit from us. That really gave us the full offering to our potential customers and also the migrating customers we have. So it's really -- I'm very happy to see the way the Infodoc actually been integrated to the family, how we actually see best practice gets shared across the different -- and the collaboration that happens now. The last, but not to forget is Infodoc Plenario. That's the on-prem solution in Infodoc. There, we can see that it's a much cleaner upgrade of product they get and much easier for the customers to go on to the Infodoc SKY product. Therefore, we see a very stable migration coming from the Plenario over to the Infodoc SKY, so we really make sure that our customers are secured for the future. So we are built on our position as market leaders. We have 50% of our revenue is cloud-based now. So we are realizing our strategy. And at the same time, we actually see we have a lot of bigger partner contracts in discussions now, which is leading us to a position where I'm very proud of the team, what they have done, to have a 43% cloud growth year-to-date, I think, is amazing. And I'm very proud of the team that have done here. What we can see, we have an overall growth on all 3 main products we have in cloud. We have both the Hove and the Infodoc SKY with very high numbers. If you look at the PatientSky Clinic, there, we focused a lot on the ProMed in the start of the year. So we also see the third quarter is actually a growing quarter for us there. Very happy with this. And then if we take the next part that's the on-prem solution. The numbers where we see that we have a decline on [ System X ], that's both migrations. Now we also see more migrations going to the Infodoc SKY products, but it's also churned, as we have talked about earlier. That's one of our focus area to make sure we're actually getting the right dialogue with our customers, making sure we're offering them the best product for the future and we really truly believe we had that in Infodoc SKY, and we have that in Hove Total. The next one we have is Plenario, where you can also see a decrease that's of 1:1 with migration. We almost have no churn there. It's a very clean migration journey we have there. So also very happy and proud and I think the Infodoc team does amazing job there. Then overall, our core business is growing. That's very important to say we are growing even though we have opened the door for migrations with our -- some of our customers, which means that we get the chance for us. That gives us a good market position. If I go into others, then the big decline we have is actually our project in consulting. It's very important to say that's a nonrecurring business. That's a business that comes in furious, so that can lend a lot in a year and nothing in the next year. It's also a business that have a very low -- sorry, profit on. So this is not the key for our business. That's why we have a core business, which is really our cloud, which we are focusing on because that's a future proof, the efficient way and the right way to work forward. On top of that, just a couple of notes. We see that our normalization in our enterprise sales. Last year, we had a peak because of COVID, and some of our partners had a busy time there. And at the other time, we have NOK 8 million taken out because we closed down ProMed. That money is actually loss generating money. So we are in a good position. I think the team is doing very well. And the next slide will also show that we actually see we continued the good sales momentum. On the left side, we are 13% better in this quarter this year than we were the same quarter last year, which I think is a good growth. What we can see, we had a high focus on the migrations, so that has actually have a really good uptick, that has been the focus we had in the third quarter. If we go on the right side, we can also see that even though we have a fairly new sales team actually, which normally has a lead time before they really get going in, we have some of the old sales members also definitely. So they are also part of this good achievement. We actually see that we are 113% up on what we deliver per sales person. So I think it really shows that we have the right product, we have the right people to go out and do it and we can deliver in the right way. As I said, there's also an improved traction on the bigger multi-clinic customers. And we are working on structural campaigns to really make sure that we get our on-prem customers to the right solution. So it's not just one-to-one, but we try to find the right offering for them. Yes, that was our SaaS business. Now I'll go into our first venture, which is the App business. As I said earlier, we have a steady traffic with around 230,000 monthly unique users. I think that's a really, really high activation around our customers. We have a download rate of 2 million -- over 2 million. So it's really people using the system. If you look on the graph on the left side, we can actually see here the first week of November, we actually had 100,000 unique users using the system in 1 week. So that's a lot of people using our app. That's, of course, also something we have looked into and see that we have responsibility to keep developing. So we have take that team from actually, I would say less than one really dedicated resource to actually have 4 people working on the app. The lower graph on the left, that gives a picture of that. In 2020, we had 1 update. In 2021, we had 1 update for 2 months. Last 6 months, we had 1 update per month. We want to keep doing updates on a monthly level. The next one we come out with is the management of family relations, et cetera, children. That's actually something we've seen from a customer survey is the main request from our customers. The same survey also showed us that it actually is a high willingness to commercialize the app, much higher than we would expect. So therefore, we're also looking into opportunity to monetizing the app for the future. We just came out with an updated version 7. Here, doesn't give a lot, but go in and check that for everybody in Norway. But it's a very updated look and feel much better useful app now. And we have then updated on the -- especially the video, the locations and also the search functions in some of the functionalities we updated. So we'll keep updating and made to look and feel better and more attractive for our end users. Last but not least, our venture, the product management platform. It's really showing great progression. I'm really happy to start showing the first tangible things here. I know that it's much better when we bring the team onboard, I can really show all the details, but I just want to give an overview here. So we're developing for launching the MVP on design time Q2. I know the design time doesn't make anything. I'll comment to that a bit later, then I'll explain what that means. We have identified initiated contracts to first pilot customers. So even though we have sharpened organization, we have a small organization and a much less invested in the head historically, we're now investing NOK 40 million in this venture. We see that the momentum is extremely high there, and the team is doing a really, really, really good job, really impressive. So we can actually expect our Capital Market Day during second quarter of 2023, where we can introduce the new product. Why are we focused here? Why do we believe so much in what we do here. Well, we actually felt the pain ourselves, where we try to do a platform across countries only in the service areas thing, what were our biggest pains. So we, of course, went out and said, does other people have the same pain. And we have clearly met that everybody who does scalable microservice architecture have the same challenge. There's a lack of dependency overview. So on the left side, that's not our business. It's just illustration to show how it is. You have a lot of things dragging on [ copper ]. If you don't know what influence what then you can end up crashing auto system by changing things. And when you build something, suddenly your systems start crashing and you don't know why it's crashing. This actually prevents easy and sustainable scalability, so what do we want to do? We want to ensure that it's the interaction share data between the companies. We want to make sure that the commercial organization can actually control the whole modeling until we start doing code. So we know we are actually coding the product that is actually needed from the business. And we want to increase the usability of source code. Now with added colors. It's not only the dependency mapping that make the complex, but it's also the coding language, the departments, the protocols, the different ways of working. So if you look at this on the left side, you can actually see it's small as similar to the other one, just with colors. That means one thing you have to know who's actually depending on you and who you're dependent on. But you also have to know what language they work in, what way they're working before you start coding on it. So this is really a pain, if you want to scale something if you don't have this overview. So we want to break down that barrier and actually make sure that we can actually have the talk between the commercial team and the developing team, the product teams. Everybody can get on the same page and actually work on the same thing to ensure we develop the right things. That also actually enable people to scale faster and not to always have to increase a lot of people to do new products. And the platform is industry agnostic. That means that this is not just for one industry. You can actually use this in many industries, reusable source codes. Put into context a bit. When you develop, you make a business case, at least ideally, so you see a market need, you go out and say, how much can I get for it? How much do you want to invest? What should it do? That's our customers. That's not what we want to do. We can't do that. That's the customer who has to own that process. What we can help them with is the design pace. That means that they can go in under the same time, which is the first 2 boxes next, which is the designing and the prototyping. First, we designed the documentation and then we designed the library. What does that mean? Well, we designed the domain descriptions in ubiquity language. That means that we certainly work with a one-to-one language to everything we do. We do domain and data model design. And then we do documentation. The documentation is already done when we start doing the modeling, which is very important because then the SDK generation comes out of that, we start working with a standard designing. We have a library generating. We saw one-to-one with the language as we see in the documentation. We have 3 languages ready now already. We will have 6 languages already as the first go and can then add on it in the future. But what actually happens then, then is everything is set up in a project and can then be exported to whatever project tool our partner customers are using. Then they own the code. But that actually means before you do start doing the first line of code, you actually agreed of or signed off what is that you are building. You have the model. The second phase, which is the run time, which will come after that, that is actually the release and deploy, and then they monitor and governance. Well, in the first page, we take the model to products, thus we release it. We put it into product life cycles. We do the data validation and then we publish the product. The second one is actually product delivery. We also know the dependencies. That means when we maintain a product, we change our product, we also know what it influences. I think that's a key part for many companies to actually fix legacy that you can actually always monitor when you change something what it actually impact. I think we've all been in the pain something change and something completely unpredictable happened. And then we have the performance and connectivity monitoring. So we always know that things are in a flow, very important when you operate a business in software. It sounds very complex. So the big challenge has actually been to make that simple, maybe not simple, but at least something they can back work we structure with. This is the first version of the PMP user interface. So as you can see here, you can actually put everything into a very good structure, pull around in that structure and work with it. So it all comes in the same way. Documentation is generated as you go, which is very important. But I think overall, I really look forward to having the team come and present in this slide to everybody, but it's just a first look and feel of how it is. I think it became something actually very user friendly. And it's not just something I think. We actually had commercial people during one of our hacker tons sitting doing the modeling, of course, with support from the technical team, but they actually could understand what they did. And I think that's a really good achievement to do. So the question we got -- here is the timeline. We are working on to get the design and prototyping out in second quarter with the MVP. We modeled the communication of functionality. Then we will continue the MVP after summer in the third quarter with the publishing and management part, the run time. Therefore, we would like to have the Capital Market Day to go through the product, have the team actually presenting go much more into details and go much deeper on this and I can do in a presentation like this. This was just a highlight, but I really look forward to everybody seeing this and really have interaction with all [ presenters ]. So that was actually everything I had to present. Now we went through the overall business. So we heard we have done a lot of initiatives to make sure we can manage our future, have best in our own hands. We have seen an update on all our business units. We see the Norwegian business keeping the momentum we showed last time, so very well. we start seeing the app actually coming up with the first releases in the new structure and then PMP, we have now presented a timeline. So now I'll leave it over to you Christoffer to go through the finances.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveThank you, Kristian. I'll now go through the third quarter financial numbers. Starting with the big picture. Revenues came in at NOK 46.6 million, excluding ProMed. Adjusted cash EBITDA came in at minus NOK 13.6 million, which is an improvement of over NOK 7 million from the previous quarter. Cloud and our core products, as Kristian already mentioned, are both still growing steadily and according to plan. The quarter-over-quarter downfall in revenues is mainly driven by 2 factors: One, you have the accumulated System X churn effect; and two, you have the summer vacations with less activity in the doctor offices, leading to less notifications revenue for PatientSky. Our Norwegian business is still delivering positive cash flow and year-to-date adjusted cash EBITDA of NOK 30 million. I'll revert back to that later. The quarter contained some large one-offs. Basically, 2 factors driving the one-off charge, one being the final payments for the reorganization. And two, a write-down of the costs associated with Finland and estimated cost of closing that down. If we then look more into the revenue side of things. month-over-month. We see that September actually was the best month we had on cloud ever. But in total, you see the big drop in July, where we lost close to NOK 1.5 million in 1 month. And the reason for that is not cloud. It's the gray and blue area. Gray is a summer vacation effect. And blue is the System X churn effects. In those blue numbers, are also some migration effects, I revert back to that later. What's nice to see is that revenues and monthly recurring revenues are bouncing back very nicely and as expected, immediately after summer vacation is over. We've added October here for your benefits, and we're very pleased to see that the trend continues going into the fourth quarter. So in sum, cloud year-over-year is growing around 40% still. Kristian covered that, and we can also see it in these numbers. So what does this translate into on a quarterly basis? Well, for the first time in the company's history, cloud every month has a higher revenue than on-premise at a total of NOK 21.7 million compared to NOK 18 million on on-premise. And also, for the first time, at least since I've been here, we're providing a soft guidance, given the trend we're seeing and with a bit of a conservative assumption on nonrecurring revenue items. We guide at around NOK 48 million for the current quarter being in the fourth quarter this year. So if we look more into what's driving revenue starting with clinics. The quarter, the main changes in the quarter is due to churn and migrations, not so many new sales activity coming into as a paying customers in the quarter. Bear in mind that we measure everything when they either start paying or stop paying as an EHR customer, that's where we measure the moves. So on churn, we lost 11 we got in 10, basically net 0, but we added 24 for migrations, meaning that we took 24 of our on-premise clinics and made them into paying cloud clinics. On-premise, we lost 50 customers, again, over back to churn, that basically a 6-month effect we see on terminations received in first half, stopped paying in July. And again, we have a small adjustment of 6 just due to late invoicing, which should have been also in the 911 numbers at the start of Q3. Clinics are important, but more important is the number of licenses. That's the revenue-driving unit of PatientSky. If we look at cloud, steady growth at 15% over 2 quarters with a small downtick in average revenue per license that is again due to the summer holiday effect. On-premise, down 11% in the same period. And again, I need to repeat this. When you take 10 licenses from on-prem in migrations, into cloud, let's say, revenue is 1:1. The license count is different. So 10 licenses on-prem, are on average 6 licenses on cloud. So you lose around 40% when you migrate and take from on-premise to cloud. And that's why you also see a higher average revenue on cloud than we do on on-premise. On the churn side, we are very pleased to see our clouded churn being consistently low on a growing portfolio. But if we start on the left-hand side, you can clearly see the semiannual effect we have on-premise churn being first quarter and third quarter every year. That's when they either pay or stop paying due to 6 months contract. So in first quarter, 65 , now it's down to 50. We've added 2 quarter average for your benefit. And that number can be compared to the cloud nominal values. On cloud, we lost 11 clinics on the growing portfolio, again what does that mean? It means that the churn is below 1% on cloud in the quarter. And there's a reason for that. We are doing active migrations. What does that mean? It means that we forces or reforce or at least trying to get our on-premise customers to take a choice, open it up also for competitors. And that's why we have elevated churn on-premise because they need a new contract, learn a new system. But once the decision has been made, they're very loyal. And the rule of thumb, we're saying 12 to 15 years, that's the average lifetime of a customer. Our churn implies even higher than that. Moving on to more financials. If we look at the Norwegian EHR business, SaaS business versus rest of group. We see that SaaS still produces healthy profits, although a bit lower than in the first half. I'll work back to way. The financials under the category other contained both the PMP and at the ventures but also all group cost. And this is where we expect to see the largest impact of the cost reductions, Kristian introduced to you earlier today going forward. So what have we done? We have reallocated resources away from the ventures. And on a relative term, SaaS now carries more costs due to more people on a relative term, but also taking on a larger share of what we call shared costs. For instance, rent in the offices we're standing today in the relative term, SaaS has more people than in the first half. Also bear in mind that first half, you have a positive effect of June being a low salary month due to vacation pay. But most importantly, and I think that message has come across through Kristian today. We are very focused on our cash position. The cash ended at NOK 106.5 million end of September, which is significantly down from where we started the year NOK 140 million. In that period, we have paid interest. We paid around NOK 55 million as a last payment to the all of the medical shareholders. And we've gone through a rather demanding reorganization. In total, including interests, those one-off effects amount to over NOK 90 million, meaning that implied operational cash flow is closer to NOK 40 million. So the underlying operational performance as we see it, is much better than what the cash development might imply. And to repeat that once more. We have made a plan, we executed cost cutting. And with that, we see that we will make it through the trick with a headroom that makes us rather comfortable, and we have upside on our cash balance once as we strongly believe that both the app and PMP will start generating revenue. With that said, no plan is free from risk, black swan or anything. So it's not a promise, but that's a plan we're working out of and which we believe that we can execute on. So to summarize, this will also mean but we don't need to raise any more capital. To summarize from finance. We still see good momentum in our core products. especially cloud, but also on new sales activity. We have initiated cost measures that we will see from our financial effects be visible in the first quarter next year. SaaS is strengthened with more resources and the revenue potential in our initiatives and renegotiations, et cetera. they are substantial, although not part of the plan we just saw. And our primary focus, which we watch very carefully every week is our cash position. Okay. Then it's time for Q&A before you round off. Kristian.
Kristian Ikast
executiveOkay. Let's start with the top one. Will PatientSky need more funding next year. The plan we just showed clearly show that we will not need more funding more in next year. We are working with a plan where we don't need additional funding to go through. We have a plan, as we said, where we had taken out. We talked a lot about [indiscernible], but a lot of other costs, we have been through all down to the vendor list. So we really believe in the plan we have here, and we also have potential upside that can also put in a safer position. So we don't need as the plan is presented today and firmly believe we can execute on.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveOkay. Number of licenses are down 3% quarter-over-quarter as we lost NOK 337 million in Q3. Why are not able to maintain and/or convert these licenses to customers? I can explain a bit about the mathematics of thing and one reason why. As I told you on the license count, it's not 1:1. So we lose around 40% migrating from on-premise to cloud. That's one effect that you need to take into accounts. The second effect is the System X churn. We lost 50 clinics with [indiscernible] of the licenses, which hit us directly in that quarter. That's the reason why. But we are trying to our best effort to convert as much as the on-premise licenses we have to cloud. Okay. Next question. Last quarter, you said that you had NOK 6 million of secured ARR that will have effect in second half and communicated a probability weighted pipeline of NOK 10 million. Why is your ARR then flat in October versus July? I can start with that again. I think the answer is not the same, but has the same characteristics at the last answer. The ARR or MRR, if you want, is a mix of our on-premise and cloud revenues. And we had a hit on-premise revenues in July, which we carry throughout the year -- the rest of the year. So basically, what happens is we build up revenue to July, dropped down -- drops down if we have churn on on-premise, which we have and working hard to stop. And then we're building up revenue again. That's why it's equal and not growing. Would you like to add to that?
Kristian Ikast
executiveNo, I think that covers.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveHow much of the total identified pipeline last quarter, have you been able to sign? You had a slide on the added cloud revenue of close to NOK 6 million in the quarter. I think that's the closest we can get to answering that understanding, but any more details and digging into that, we need to follow up on later. All right. Given that the fourth quarter is seasonally stronger than Q3 and your sales pipeline and your NOK 6 million ARR to be invoiced in the second half. Why is Q4 revenue guidance only NOK 1.5 million higher than the third quarter? I think the basic answer, as I alluded to, is that we're trying to be a bit conservative on everything else other than the recurring revenues we know are coming. We expect also some nonrecurring items and revenue items come into the fourth quarter, but we don't want to be punished if they don't come because that's very lump sum, and we don't have the same control and visibility.
Kristian Ikast
executiveAnd I think it's also worth to say that in December, of course, there is a vacation month, you also will see the notification is going down in that period. Therefore, it's not a one-to-one comparison. But I think also, Christoffer showed that we had a very good upside on our monthly reoccurring business already here in October. So we are seeing that we have a very good progression. But there are some parameters that does not go one-to-one comparison.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveYes. For the SaaS lower business last quarter, you said that you expect cost improvements going forward, now operating cost is up 28% quarter-over-quarter. Take -- 2 answers to that. One is the vacation June effect, where you have 1 month less costs than you have in the third quarter on salary, which is our biggest cost driver. And second is the reallocation of resources to SaaS. Not that much on an absolute term, but more in the relative terms, so they carry more of the share costs this quarter than they did in the first half.
Kristian Ikast
executiveIf you isolate the Norwegian business, it is operated more efficient, and it is taking cost out. But it is, of course, when we move people around, that's the way we actually segment the way we split out our general cost. So it's not a one-time comparison. But I think that definitely can say that the business is improving and is also with a less cost base.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveYes. What was operational cash flow adjusted for the sellers credit? I think for the third quarter isolated, just adjusting for the approximate NOK 55 million we paid, then we're at plus NOK 2 million operation. Do you still expect revenue from past in 2023?
Kristian Ikast
executiveI'd like to answer this point. Yes. On the PMP, we still have expectation on that we get revenue in 2023, but I think it will be completely out of line to start talking about numbers here. We have the first pilot customers coming on in second quarter, as we said. So we need to get the pilots [indiscernible] before, but we still expect that will come revenue in 2023. But the size of what will not make any sense to talk about now.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveHow much did PatientSky pay for Infodoc? That was around NOK 290 million. All right. Revenue covered -- Apologies. Can you provide a breakdown of the cost reduction initiatives already implemented in the NOK 140 million annual effects and what you are planning going forward? The reduction in number of FTEs are only expected to be down from 164 to 163 million. So what are the additional cost reduction initiatives going forward?
Kristian Ikast
executiveLet me just explain that, just to make it very clear, the pro forma, if you look at the best initiatives already initiated. So you actually have to compare with -- I can't remember what the number was before, but...
Christoffer Mathiesen
executive209 in April and the 190 million...
Kristian Ikast
executiveThat's 190 if you compared if that would be taken out the cost up, but that's because of the notice period, et cetera. So actually, the NOK 162 million is the cost always initiated and also part of the NOK 40 million cost takeout on salaries and consultants alone. On top of that, we also have a variety of the things we have renegotiated. That can be different contracts we have. We have also looked into our cost base per vendor level. And everything else between that, we have actually been true. So there's a lot of other parameters. And this was only on FTEs on consultants.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveYes. And to that point, I think we are prioritizing our own employees and where the largest reduction will come is on the consultants use. All right? What is the current migration speed? And what is driving the somewhat slower migration apart from summer holiday? Is there a slower willingness to migrate among customers? I can start, if you want to add to it. I think the summer holiday, of course, has a huge effect with approximately half the quarter gone to vacation and potential customers not being available. From the numbers, I understand why it's reasonable to draw that conclusion. But what we experienced from an operational point of view is actually that the migration speed is increasing. And one of the reasons, obviously, is that we are trying to -- besides doing campaigns towards our on-premise customers, we're also trying to improve on customer care, talk more through our on-premise customers. And that has been a focus area for us at least for the last 6 months plus. And we see that, that also drives a lot of migration leads.
Kristian Ikast
executiveI think definitely, we are on the momentum for the operations side. We do see a lot of migrations actually coming in, but I think it also has to be said everything here is measured on when it's invoiced. That's, of course, a delay from when we start migrating [indiscernible] getting to pain. So I think that's more effect we see.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveIs there any more one -- is there any more one-offs in the pipeline? Not that where we are now, but you can never say never, but I would be extremely surprised if we see anything close to where we have been so far this year.
Kristian Ikast
executiveWe can safely say there is no bigger one-offs in the pipeline for what we see now. If anything come in because we make a decision to do something where we decided and that's not in our plans.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executivePlease discuss the current status with Convene?
Kristian Ikast
executiveI will not go into any details with any of our partners, what we are discussing with them. So that one, I would like to close down right away. That's between us and Convene. But that's a partner we work very well with. So I have no more to say.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveCan you be more specific on the market size you expect when the international solution is ready for sales, and as a follow-up question, do we have enough commercial resources?
Kristian Ikast
executiveFirst question, I think that's a really, really big potential. As we also said, it's working across industries. So that is, as I said earlier, it's pretty much bigger number. I think when we get our first pilot customers, we will have a much more tangible plan on that. I would say, right now, we have the commercial resources we need to get into what we do. But of course, we will scale up the department as well when we start really going out and being over the pilot phasing of it. That's also why I don't want to comment any forecast on the revenue because it is focused for us to hit it right. I think it's so important when you go in and actually take over the modeling of the solutions, then it's important that you do it right and get it tested right, we get it out with the right customers and then start to scale it. So yes, we are in a right position with that.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveIf you need to shut down venture, how much would that cost in one-off? Hopefully, we will not get there, right?
Kristian Ikast
executiveExactly.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveBut as you can see, taking PMP as an example. And obviously, also the app, we're targeting around 35 people, right? So depending on what -- how we do it, how fast and what kind of agreements we then reach with those affected would obviously impact that answer. But I'm not prepared to give you anything on that now. Yes. Okay. I think that was my last question. How large is your exposure to digital A health et cetera? And are you seeing them scale down due to funding issues?
Kristian Ikast
executiveI think we can say that we don't see any effect from the funding issues. I think we also, of course, present the plan here that we can say that we don't have a funding issue. But I think that's to start with, we don't see any, that too we have a very good cooperation there and actually working out how we can keep developing our corporation. But it is not the core part of our business, it's part of our business, but the dependency is not something that just make a breakfast, but it's still important partners, that's to be said. Yes.
Christoffer Mathiesen
executiveThat was the last question.
Kristian Ikast
executiveThanks a lot for your questions. Really appreciate it. So let me just close it off here. We have taken the initiatives to improve the earning efficiency and decrease the complexity of our company to make sure we have the long-term financial stability as a company. We have taken major steps both under people side, the consultant side, but definitely under another OpEx side. So we have been all around the table. We, as I said, worked on this plan since May to make sure we do it in a way that we can actually operate a very efficient and strong business going forward. We have also made some really strong decisions to say we want to keep developing our very important Norwegian business. We have a huge potential there that we really want to utilize. We also see that we have a lot of opportunities that we have not put in our plan because we want to have that buffer. We don't end up chasing birds on the roof, but actually everything we have in plan is something we have done and have executed on, and it's in our own hands. We have a high focus on enabling us to self-financing and want to keep our destiny in our own hands. Now also the structure is in place. We have worked a lot on that and have used money and also to get the right legal structure. Now it's implemented and the same is the operational structure. So it's a one-to-one. It's actually working at stand-alone companies that own their own destiny has their own P&L, has their own plan. We continue to focus on cloud sales in Norway. We've got to keep having momentum to keep growing that business. We want to keep being the market leader and keep developing and actually enabling more customers to go on to our solutions. And we see the international product management platform really becoming tangible. We now see that we are very close to getting pilot customers in. We are in dialogue with them already. So we see already Q2. Here, we'll get the first one. We can also start presenting some to the market that's a much more tangible. So I really look forward to that part. So overall, I think we are very happy where we are in a position. We also have focus areas which we have been very transparent with today. And then we'll present the next result, the fourth quarter end the 28th of February 2023. Thank you very much for coming here today and thank you very much for joining online. Have a good day.
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