COFACE SA (COFA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 14, 2023

Euronext Paris FR Financials Insurance earnings 49 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the COFACE SA 9 Months 2020 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Xavier Durand, CEO. Please go ahead.

Xavier Durand

executive
#2

Thank you, and good evening, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. You all have seen now on the headlines that we are reporting close to $190 million net profit in the first 9 months of the year, which represents $60.9 million in the third quarter of 2023. Another strong quarter for Coface in a changing environment. If I go through the numbers very quickly, you see turnover for the first 9 months is up 7.1%, all everything else equal with premiums growing 6.6%. Now, what's new here is I think in the third quarter, we've seen negative client activity. That's driven by, on one hand, lower inflation. I think the headline news today highlight us pretty well and a significant slowdown in the economy, which is weighing on the premium growth, particularly in the sectors in which we traditionally operate. There's a number of good metrics out there. The client retention is still at a record close to 94%. And pricing is still down but better than last year. We'll go through this a little bit further. And more importantly, I think the growth continues in our business information, which is at close to 15%, 14.7% exactly at constant FX. Factoring had slowed down earlier in the year. I think we had the opportunity to comment this already and is up 3.8% for the year. But clearly, we're seeing better growth now in the fees services business than we are in the trade credit insurance. On the loss side, you see a 40.2% net loss ratio for the first 9 months. That's up 1.4 points from last year. Last year, we still had the tail end of the government programs payout. So clearly, losses are a bit higher than last year. That brings a net combined ratio to 66%, which is just slightly over what we had last year with the same comments. The gross loss ratio at 38.8% is up 3.3 points with an environment, which is getting closer to the, I would say, the historic average. The cost ratio is at the lowest it's been for us at 25.7%. That's helped by high reinsurance commissions in this quarter and the business mix with better fees, while we continue to invest in our build to lead, I would say, the final stretch of our build to lead the strategic plan. That brings the net combined ratio to 66.8 million which is 3 points better on the loss ratio. And then just a word on Israel. We have $4.6 billion of exposures and not a very big country for us. It is actually significant in the business information activity, where we have a historic presence as one of the credit bureaus of the country. It's historic. It's not the high growth part of our business, but it represents about 1/4 of our total business information revenues. Net-net, so you see $189.7 million annualized return on average tangible equity of 14.1%, so well above the midpoint in our cycle targets. You've seen the news on Moody's having upgraded our rating from A2 to A1 with a stable outlook, and we take this as a recognition of, I would say, the work that's been done on risk management, the diversification of the business model that is ongoing. Obviously, it's still early days. And basically, the general impression on how the business is around. We have added a page on Page 5, and I'm going to turn it over to Pala Garvey, our CFO, to talk about it. And this is about insurance finance expense. This is new line with IFRS 17, which has been drawing a lot of discussions. So she's going to try to put some clarity as to how this thing actually works. Phalla?

Phalla Gervais

executive
#3

Good evening, everybody. I think on this page, we had on [indiscernible] we had a couple of questions last quarter, so I hope that these ones will clarify a bit. So we know that IFRS 17 has introduced an items, which is the discounting of reserves and then, of course, the unwind of the discounting, which is also called moving forward with the, I think, specificity that, of course, the discount of the reserve goes to the loss line, but the unwind of discount goes to the financial expense line. What we want to illustrate here is what it really means for Coface. So the first chart is the amount of the moving forward impact in the interest expense line quarter after quarter. So this is a quarterly amount. Of course, the unwind impact is depending on 2 items. The first one is the level of reserves. So what you increase the reserve, the unwind will increase. And the level of interest rates, as I think since 2 years, the interest has been increasing, this also drives the level of the unwind effect. If you can see -- I think doing this in 2023, now that the interest rates, especially the last 2 quarters, the interest rate increase has posed a little bit. You can see that the label is pretty much stabilized. The second chart is basically showing the convergence or the kind of conventions between the 2 items. Of course, you discount it at inception and you unwind the discount over time. This is really our numbers. And if you look at it from a cumulative point of view, over the past, what, 7 quarters, you can see in green bar, the discount effect of the reserves. And in blue bar, the cumulative unwind of the discount effect which goes, of course, in the interest expense line. After 7 quarters, given the duration, the very short duration of our business, which is 2 or 3 years, max, you can see that it's a kind of convergence. Of course, it all depends on the interest rate movement. If interest rate movement is going a different way, there will be a lag. But after a couple of quarters, you can see that it will converge more or less. I hope that it clarifies some of the questions that you had in the second quarter. Go back to the usual results.

Xavier Durand

executive
#4

Right. So I'm going to move to Page 7 on the growth. So pretty much the numbers I mentioned, 7.1% turnover growth in the first 9 months cumulative. As I said, trade credit interest premiums is growing 6.6%. The other revenues are growing actually faster at 9.8% versus the first 9 months of the year. And as I said, business information is up 14.7%. Third-party debt collection, which we are now starting to market more aggressively because there's more demand, obviously, and we think there's going to be more, is up 41.3%, small number, but a significant growth rate, factoring is up 3.8%. And then the insurance fees we get from the insured clients are also growing 10.2% at constant FX. So back in percentage higher as a percentage of premiums than it was before. If I go to Page 8 and we look at the growth per region, you see lower numbers on those pages than the ones we've seen in the prior quarters. The bulk -- the slowdown is more marked, I would say, in Europe than it is in the rest of the world, but you see Western Europe at 7% now. Northern Europe, which is Germany, probably the most impacted country right now with a large industrial base at 4%. Central Europe is negative. Now you have to correct that number for the exclusion of Russia that we're progressively doing. So that you have a 1.7% growth if you exclude the Russian numbers. Medan Africa is still double digits. We see that these countries tend to be impacted later when there's a slowdown in Europe, at least in this case, start with the industrial base in Northern Europe. North America, 6.9%. Asia Pacific, 6.5% in Latin America, which had been hovering at a double-digit -- strong double-digit numbers actually over the course of the last year or 2 is now down back to 6% with a significant slowdown in the prices and particularly metals and commodities. If you go to Page 9, the way we look at the business in terms of components, you see a bit better in new production for the first 9 months. There's more demand out there. And clearly, we see a little bit better numbers than last year, which at this point seems like it was the lowest year we've had. Retention rates still at a record at 93.9%. There is pressure in the market. The market is extremely competitive. So clients are still seeing, I would say, in the last 3 years that they've had very benign claims. And that's clearly weighing on price as well. You're seeing that as a minus 2% for the first 9 months compares favorably to the minus 3% we had last year, but still it's a negative number. And then the volume effect, which is really the turnover of our own clients is sharply declining from where it was last year in the first 9 months, with the particular impact, I would say, in Q3 that it was actually negative. So there's something shifting in the world here as both inflation is down, and I think the volumes that are traded are also down, particularly, I would say, on the B2B industrial space. In terms of the losses on Page 10, the gross loss ratio stands at 38.8%. I've been talking about normalization for 2.5 years, almost right now. So it continues. We've seen the number of claims increase since the mid-'21. They are now about 8% lower than in '19, but the claims amount is now similar, so slightly bigger claims. The trend has been that smaller companies started facing more difficulties. It's now moving into the, I would say, the middle market kind of that space. We continue to reserve at a pretty high level. You see that on the bottom right-hand side chart, without the discount, we would have been close to 77%, a little bit lower with the discount effect under IFRS 17. The bond yields we get from prior vintages, as you can see in the intense blue line at 36.8% -- minus 36.8% is less than we got in the last 3 years and reverting slowly to, I would say, where we were before the COVID crisis, although it's still pretty good. If I look at the annual loss ratios on Page 11, there's really not that much to say. We know that from the prior quarters, Latin America has been the hotspot with a large event at the beginning of the year in Brazil. But the rest is pretty much benign. And I'd like to go to Page 12 where you see the quarterly sequence and at this stage, you can see that the 4 largest more stable markets at the bottom have pretty much a benign story quarter-by-quarter. So not much to report here. I think it's a tribute to the work the company has been doing on underwriting. On the top are the 3 smaller and traditionally more volatile markets. And again, there's not that much to report. I mean, I spoke about Latin America and I think we've been discussing what's happened there through the last couple of quarters, a bit higher this quarter as we see the lower commodity prices in metals in soft commodities starting to have an impact on the economy. So that's for the losses. On the cost side, you see that quarter-on-quarter, our cost in total are at 4%, our internal costs are 8.8%. So we're in a situation where the -- I would say, the industrial prices -- B2B prices are now under pressure. You've seen a sharp decrease in, I would say, in prices and in volume. So there's a slowdown. At the same time, you see prices and services are still seeing inflation. So we have inflation, wage inflation, which accounts by -- for about 2.5 points of the total growth in the cost. We also have services inflation, and then we continue to invest. I mean we haven't lost the plot. The company continues to build up, it's technology, it's a business information and we don't think we should change our plans just because of the environment. at this point. So the gross cost ratio from -- for the first 9 months is pretty close to where it was last year, just slightly below, and the business continues to enjoy, I think, a pretty good position from that standpoint. I'm going to turn it over to Phalla for the next few slides.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#5

If we look at the [ Renton ] results, I think we'll comment on the premium sessions rate at 27% claim sessions rate at almost 25%. Here, what we can say is that we go back to just the application of our third-party reinsurance treaties that lead us to a reinsurance result at minus EUR 70 million year-to-date. Net combined ratio, the next page of 66%. You can see that we have a slight increase of the net loss ratio that is partially offset by the decrease of the net cost ratio in the decrease that you commented, net cost ratio at 25.7%. Cost discipline, we're still investing, and we still have a higher reinsurance commission. If we move to Page 16, financial portfolio, the mark-to-market of our investment portfolio stands at EUR 2.9 billion. If you look at the asset allocation has not changed with the bond at 76%, liquid assets at 15%. So we still have -- we're still very long in liquid also in cash, and we're redeploying it. Equity up at 3%, and we're decreasing -- continue to decrease in investment in real estate funds. What is noticeable is, of course, the increase -- the continuous increase of the accounting yield quarter after quarter, which is now at 1.7% with the recurring income at almost EUR 50 million, noting that the new money is now invested at almost 4%. Insurance finance expense at EUR 30 million, I'm not commenting it. We just discussed about that. realized gain, so realized gain and loss at minus -- almost minus EUR 10 million, out of which I think we have recorded minus EUR 25.8 million related to the mark-to-market of the real estate investment funds. This represents an impairment of approximately 50% of our investments there. On FX base, as we still have to account for the high penetration or application of IAS 29, this hypercation in Turkey and in Argentina service entity and it accounts for minus EUR 10 million. Lead us to a strong net income year-to-date September at almost EUR 190 million. You can see that operating income standing at EUR 273 million. Tax rate has not changed at 24%. Return on average tangible liquidity IFRS equity moving from EUR 2.08 billion to EUR 1.984 billion. Of course, we paid our annual dividend and we accounted for the year-to-date net income. Based on this, the return on average tangible equity moved up from 12.7% to 14.1%.

Xavier Durand

executive
#6

So just to wrap this up on Page 20. Again, I think a good quarter, a good first 9 months of the year in an environment which is getting more volatile and more challenging. The TCI revenues are resisting, but there's a sharp slowdown in the economy. We have good retention. We have good diversification in terms of geography and sectors. The combined ratio is holding up really nicely at 66%. We're seeing double-digit growth in the fees, revenues -- fee business revenues. The annualized return on tangible equity is really good at 14.1%. We are seeing a turn in the credit cycle. I think we described this in the last quarter in the outlook. And so it's not really a surprise, but it is there. We're seeing tighter financing conditions, which are starting to bite in the economy, reducing inflation activity levels that are less than last year, both price and volume. We think the full impact on the economy is yet to come. We see more geopolitical instability. I don't need to comment on the events in the Middle East. They haven't had an impact so far, but I mean, it's anybody's guess as to where the conflict goes in terms of the future. We've been upgraded by Moody's. We're happy with this. It's a recognition of the relevance of our strategy. We're seeing now that the economy is slowing. We're starting to see a difference in growth rate between the fees business in the insurance business, which historically has had a growth, which look more like the GDP. So I think validates, again, our view that this is something we should continue to invest in. And with that, I'm going to stop here and open it for questions.

Operator

operator
#7

[Operator Instructions] And your question comes from the line of Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#8

Fantastic. Thank you for another excellent quarter. I had 2 really small questions and one slightly. So the reinsurance, can you talk about the reinsurance renewals whether we should start penciling in lower -- much lower commissions, which reduced your expense ratio? And what will happen there? The second is, did I understand correctly, the EUR 25 million year-to-date impairment on real estate funds is 50%, 50% of your investment there?

Phalla Gervais

executive
#9

15.5%.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#10

Sorry, you see my I better get a hearing aid. And then the last -- 2 more, then the gross loss ratio and the growth. The gross loss ratio of 38%, which at this stage in the cycle, and I know you've been saying it's getting more normal, but I kind of assume we can't be that far from a kind of fully more normal level. 38% is an extraordinary number. I just wonder whether you could reflect on this and kind of compare it with your experience and say, well, yes, it is a really much better company than back in 2019 or whenever when the ratios were clearly a lot higher. And then the other question you might say, I can't comment because it's looking forward. But you might give us some indication. The turnover, should we start tensening in declines in turnover going forward? Q3 was minus 3%. That's it.

Xavier Durand

executive
#11

Yes. So thanks for those questions. I mean, I think, Phalla answered the real estate question. It's -- by the way, the percentage of real estate in our book has gone from 8%, 9% down to 6%. So we're -- we've been managing this for the last 9 months, actually, more than that and I think I highlighted this at one of our quarterly calls, right? In terms of reinsurance, I mean, it's early days because the reinsurance renewals, as you know, happen right around the end of the year, right? So I don't have any comment to make. But I think we have had a very consistent performance, as you highlight, by the way, in your last question in terms of underwriting. So I think we have arguments to put forward. Obviously, others will bring in, but it's too early for me to give you an indication. I think we have a good story. The -- in terms of the gross loss ratio at 38%, it is -- as we said, the last 3 years have seen a slow normalization. But I think the, as we said, we're seeing a shift in the market at this point. And you are seeing the policies of higher rates and tighter financing by the central banks start to bite. There's still a lot of cash where there was a lot of cash when they started out in the company's balance sheet. And I don't think the central banks are inclined to let go those policies before they are absolutely sure that the inflation is going to come down because they don't want to do this exercise twice and then they've got credibility at stake. So I think the impact of this is probably going to continue in the future, and we expect the cycle to continue. In terms of turnover, I mean, clearly, there's -- so we're impacted directly, I would say, by what happens in the economy. So inflation translates by the way, directly into nominal turnover for our clients and impacts our premiums, just one for one. Same for volumes and same for actually prices, the real price that they are able to pass on to the -- to their clients and how much margin they regain for themselves. So the way our clients report their numbers to us varies by region, but I would say there's always going to be a lag between the time that they see their turnover and the time that they report it to us and we actually build them on that revised base. So I would expect this to go on for some time in the context of a slowing economy and the reporting time, I think we're going to see lower turnover for some time. I think that's your question.

Operator

operator
#12

[Operator Instructions] We have a follow-up question. One moment, please. And the question was from Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#13

Yes, sorry, I'm pinging the line. I'll keep it please at 3 points. Some meant give a feel for how much I should or maybe should not just. And just a very simple number, the tangible net asset value on which you're earning the 14%. Solvency, I know you don't report it was 92 at the half year, just to get a feeling for the trend. I always see it as a kind of -- it's more comfort check. You highlighted the -- that was in the $140 million, whatever Q1 combined loss ratio, but it was a gross loss ratio. And I can't remember the number. I just wondered if you could -- it will give me some comfort when I think in terms of combined ratio for next year. And those are my 3 questions. And I'm sorry to hang the line.

Xavier Durand

executive
#14

You want to take those questions.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#15

I will start with the tangible NAV. Is that your question, Michael?

Michael Huttner

analyst
#16

Yes, please.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#17

Yes, I think we probably in 12.9%, -- is that your question for the second quarter.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#18

EUR 12.9% a share.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#19

Yes.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#20

Well. So just to understand, you're earning 14% and change on 12.9%. I mean I know it should be average, but 12.9% at tangible net asset value.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#21

We'll take it offline with [indiscernible].

Xavier Durand

executive
#22

I think we disclosed the amount of the file. No. I mean we -- I think -- I think we I don't think we did, no.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#23

No, I don't think we did. We see that it is the first time that which the first layer of the witness.

Xavier Durand

executive
#24

It's the first time we reach, yes, the layer of retention that we have in the reinsurance rate.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#25

Yes, that's help. And on solvency, just to get a feel for the trend because that's sensitive to outlooks, isn't it?

Phalla Gervais

executive
#26

The oneoff because we booked everything on notes.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#27

Sorry, so it's a very clumsy question, and I'm really sorry about this, but the way I read solvency is often it includes your looking forward kind of view of combined ratio. So it's a polite way of asking for your outlook really. At the half year, it was 192%. And I'm just wondering whether -- and I know you reported quarterly were up or down.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#28

Yes. So you know that we don't disclose it in Q3. However, we have not changed at all the profile of our investment portfolio. So we didn't take any additional risk. The profile of business is probably even getting a little bit better. So I don't see much change since Q2 in terms of solvency ratio is that we provide you some answers.

Operator

operator
#29

And your next question comes from Benoit Valleaux all from ODDO BHF.

Benoit Valleaux

analyst
#30

One. Just a few additional questions on my side. Maybe first one on solvency again. Sorry, but just to understand because you mentioned the fact that turnover is increasing part to lower inflation. So -- does it mean nevertheless, that solvency should go up a little bit? I mean, what is the seat of your solvency to inflation? Maybe that will be my first question. Second question, just to come back also, sorry, on the next reinsurance renewals. Just to understand if you plan to change anything in your insurance program structure in terms of maximum exposure per event or these kind of things. You mentioned the fact that for the first time you reach your coverage with Americans, but do you plan to change anything on that or not? And maybe just to come back on -- yes.

Xavier Durand

executive
#31

Go ahead.

Benoit Valleaux

analyst
#32

The cost ratio in [indiscernible] -- you mentioned, we see that there is some increase in -- maybe you mentioned the fact that it's parking to a change in price on commodities. -- just to understand if you believe that you should still have a quite high level of loss ratio for the next few quarters or [indiscernible]?

Xavier Durand

executive
#33

You're talking about Latin America?

Benoit Valleaux

analyst
#34

Exactly.

Xavier Durand

executive
#35

Okay. I got it. Okay. Well, let me start with the solvency. So I mean the way our solvencies many or the capital requirements in our business is mainly driven by the exposures, the risk exposures that we have, right? So to the extent that -- I would say it's ultimately, the exposures will reflect the underlying transactions of our clients, but that's not an immediate adjustment. That's something that takes a while and it takes dialogues with our clients today over, I would say, medium term need less commitments from us, that would drive lower exposures that would drive lower solvency requirements, but it's not a short-term thing. In terms of reinsurance renewals, I mean, I think we've thought long and hard about our program. So we're looking for long-term stability. Are we going to change one thing or here and there? Yes, every year we do. But again, this is too early to comment on. And then in terms of losses in Latin America, I mean, it's typically one of the most volatile segments in our portfolio. it's cyclical because also it's a part of the world that is highly exposed to commodities. I think we highlight this literally every call. So when commodity prices move as they do now up or down, it always creates some friction. So I mean, I see nothing, I would say, unusual or that we're not aware of. It's been actually quite benign for the last few years, but I think losses in general have been quite benign in the last few years. We -- when that happens, we work with our clients as we usually do, and we basically stay very close to them and adjust our rich exposure to what we believe is reasonable in a market like this. And then we go through a game of renewals at the end of the year and decide whether we can make those programs right. But I think these are not cycles that play out over a quarter. These are things that play along economic cycles with the adjustments that we can make on our underwriting. So that's as much as I'm able to say.

Benoit Valleaux

analyst
#36

Okay. I ask maybe a quick follow-up question on turnover, if I may. 2 questions -- or 2 small questions. First one, is it fair to assume that we will have maybe still some price decrease next year for the bond because when you see the trend in terms of number of claims and your good comment ratio in your main, I would say, geographies? I mean from your point of view, a fair assumption? And maybe the second question regarding new production. I will assume that in current environment, there should be an increasing demand of coverage. We seem to start first some rebound in new production this year. I mean do you expect to increase further your new production next year or to remain maybe a more conservative, more cautious on by, I would say [indiscernible].

Xavier Durand

executive
#37

Yes. I mean, I think the 2 questions are kind of linked in a way because on price, as I pointed out in the presentation, when you look at it from a client standpoint, you look at in the last 3 years and you say, well, the loss has been pretty benign, right? So I'm entitled to ask for better prices. And that's not just us. I mean, it's an industry situation, right? And then over the long term, our prices tend to come down regularly over the last 20 years. On average, they tend to come down every year. So I don't see anything changing that picture. In terms of new production, there is more demand. Again, there's a lot of competition for the same reasons that I explained on price. There's a lot of competition in the market. So we remain thoughtful about how we underwrite. We want to create long-term profitable relationships with clients that we're going to be able to partner with for a long time. And at the same time, we're not here to just drive short-term volumes or anything like this. And by the way, as you see only 7% or 6% or 7% of our book shifts from one year to the other. So the impact of what we could do on new production is always going to be the second order of magnitude on the total turnover of the business.

Operator

operator
#38

And your next question comes from the line of Hadley Cohen from Deutsche Bank.

Hadley Cohen

analyst
#39

A few quick questions, please. So firstly, Xavier, I think you mentioned effectively the loss experience is normalizing, but it's almost back to normal. I think the only sort of real difference now is the still low level of large loss activity. And I'm just wondering if you could quantify the extent to which large loss activity is below average levels, i.e., what is average levels? And what are you seeing right now? Second question, more for Phalla possibly. The IFE impact in the third quarter was EUR 15 million or just over EUR 15 million from what I can tell. But when I look at the top chart on Slide 5, it suggests that the 3Q impact was only about EUR 11 million or EUR 12 million, maybe I'm misinterpreting something. But can you just help me understand the difference there and how -- what's the right number to use to sort of extrapolate going forward. Third question, the ordinary investment income was EUR 18 million. Investment income. It was about EUR 18 million, I think, in the third quarter. And if I'm right, given your current reinvestment rate, that should be pushing closer to mid- to high EUR 20 million per quarter going forward, assuming bond yields stay where they are. Is that the right math that I'm thinking? Are there any sort of funnies within that, that I should be aware of? And then just a final question, please. Are there any funnies that I should be aware of for the final quarter of the year. So seasonality on expenses or any expectation of further negative rebounds on the real estate portfolio or anything like that?

Xavier Durand

executive
#40

I'll take the first one, and I'll leave Phalla to take the next 3. But in terms of loss experience, I think I don't have a number to share with you in terms of what the mark the midpoint of the cycle would be for medium and large losses. I mean we don't typically go into that -- the other thing I would point out is there's no such thing as being in the middle of the cycle. I mean the middle cycle is what you -- is where you are after you've gone through the whole cycle. So it's ups and now. So there's no -- what can I say? There's no absolute truth in being at the middle. I think what I'm commenting on is the trends, right? I mean, is what we're seeing in the marketplace. And we are -- so on one hand, we observe the trends and we try to predict and forecast them. And on the other hand, we have a team that's trying to work with those and try to make sure that our clients can trade safely. And then what we get at the end and our loss line is the combination of these 2 things. We can't ignore the environment. The environment is absolutely critical. And when the tide rises, we rise with the tide, but we can minimize the way or optimize the way we navigate those trends. So I'm not answering your question, I know, but at least I just wanted to point those things to you. I'm going to turn it in to Phalla here.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#41

I would take the first one, which is the IFE. In the IP, you have to -- the moving forward that we have described on Page 5 is the probably key item and probably the more most predictable one, but it's not the only item in the IP. You also have the adjustments on the interest rate that has been locked in that goes and smoother the IFE effect as well. So this is why in IFE, if you have a couple of items going there, more important one being the moving forward. And then the other ones, I can take it offline to...

Hadley Cohen

analyst
#42

So just to be clear on that one, sorry. But just to be clear on that point, does that mean which number should we be using to extrapolate? Should we be using the one in the chart on Slide 5 or the EUR 15 million impact in the third quarter.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#43

I think you can take the Page 5.1.

Hadley Cohen

analyst
#44

Okay.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#45

Then in terms of investment income, I don't give you any forward-looking, but it is what it is true and you've seen that quarter after quarter, our accounting yield is increasing and we continue to invest at a higher rate. So yes, we do expect some increase in the recurring income. This is clear. This is true. In terms of Q4, for a couple of things, I think usually, you have some seasonality in cost because in Q4, especially if you do a good year, you accrue for more bonuses and this type of compensation. So usually, in terms of seasonality, we -- if you look at the past couple of years, Q4 shows a higher cost ratio than the other quarters. And then for the reason that the how to explain, Q4 tends to be a little bit lower in terms of net income than the other quarter. But again, this one no one knows. Last year, for instance, in Q4, we have booked partially Logan South America as coming in. So it depends. I cannot comment on this one. But the only thing we can say is, yes, on the cost side, usually, you have some isolate.

Operator

operator
#46

And your next question comes from the line of Phil Ross from BNP Paribas.

Philip Ross

analyst
#47

Just one question on net loss ratio, please. It seems to be holding up very well year-on-year despite the normalization that you talk about. In one of the previous questions you answered to talk about the time lag for client revenue reporting as it flows through some clients and flows into your top line. I wondered if this lag effect is the same to claims and losses. I might have thought that clients may be quicker to report claims than they might be to report revenues, but maybe I'm being too cynical there. So just any thoughts on the time for the claims to flow through would be helpful.

Xavier Durand

executive
#48

Yes. I mean in terms of claims, I think we commented this a lot, particularly in the first years when I was around in the -- we were seeing a lot more volatility in the small emerging markets. The -- typically, it varies by region, but clients -- the payment terms on receivables go from, say, I don't know, 1 to 2 months in some markets like the U.S. to up to 6 or maybe more in some emerging markets like in Asia. So for there to be a claim, the -- the payments delay has to be expired. There has to be a missed payment. And then there has to be some kind of a communication between the seller and the buyer as to why there is delayed payments. And then there is a time for the seller to log in a claim with us, the time it takes for us to take a look at it and whether it's serious and et cetera, et cetera. So when you -- and then sometimes they have grace periods or they're allowed to declare the claims later depending on their own internal stuff. So it can take a bit of time as well to get the claims through that are relevant to events happening at a certain point in time.

Operator

operator
#49

And the next question comes from Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#50

This is my last chance -- and then really simple. The first one is competitors, the competitive environment. I'm obviously under the mistaken impression that there are only 3 trades [indiscernible] trade and -- but maybe you could say who else are the competitors? The second is on the debt, and this is really my memory. It's -- I had in mind that there was a kind of double level of debt that you hadn't redeemed or you were going to redeem or something. Just wondered if you could maybe comment or otherwise I ask offline. And then the last one is on the business information volumes. So it's included, I guess, in the EUR 100 million other revenue figure. I just wondered what portion it makes up, and I'm guessing it's around 50%.

Xavier Durand

executive
#51

I'll take the first one. I mean only 3 players, it's -- there's only 3 Western global players, I would say, right? So companies that have a global presence in tens of different markets and a large share of that market and that are focused on what we all whole turnover policies, which is really what we do. So this granular looking at every line and monitoring risk one by one and working with your clients closely. There are smaller ones, I would say, regional or actually country players. There's ECAs, for example, that do this job, and some of them actually we work with. And then there's -- there are people that play a different game, which is the excessive loss policies where you actually underwrite and overall -- you underwrite the clients' own ability to take risks and you basically agree to pay if they miss by a certain amount. So there, you find, I would say, the large insurance companies that you know from the Anglo-Saxon world or others that have traditionally been playing that game. And then there's some connection between the 2 for large institutions or large clients, et cetera. But we -- I think we're in a little bit different space. So I hope that answers that question. In terms of -- do you want to talk about.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#52

Yes. In terms of debt, indeed, we have the first tranche of our year to date that will mature in March 2024, the one that has been issued in March 2014. So your memory is good.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#53

And on the business information.

Xavier Durand

executive
#54

Could you repeat, sorry, I think we missed.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#55

Just to know how big the number is, I keep forgetting and I think it's around EUR 150 million, but I'm not good here.

Xavier Durand

executive
#56

Business information. What number did we last gave, Thomas.

Phalla Gervais

executive
#57

Do you mean the turnover?

Michael Huttner

analyst
#58

Yes.

Xavier Durand

executive
#59

I think it's in the order of about $60 million a year.

Michael Huttner

analyst
#60

Thank you.

Operator

operator
#61

There are no further questions. I will hand the call back to you.

Xavier Durand

executive
#62

And we have lots of questions. Look, thank you for participating. We're -- our next -- we're going to have a series of meetings next year, actually, the full year report, which is when is that the 27th of February. And then we are obviously a big milestone for us is the new plan, which we'll do on March 5. So looking forward to that, and thank you again for joining in on this call today.

Operator

operator
#63

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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