COFACE SA (COFA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the COFACE SA Full Year 2024 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Xavier Durand, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Welcome to all to this closing 2024 call. So we're happy today to report our fourth quarter and total year numbers. You will have seen from the headlines, another good quarter for COFACE yielding EUR 53 million of net income in the fourth quarter, bringing the total year at EUR 261 million. It's been a better quarter, I would say, on the growth side. You can see that our total revenues are just slightly down from 2023 at minus 0.6%, whereas I would say during the first 3 quarters, we saw much lower numbers in comparison. The insurance revenue is down 2.2%. Client activity for the first time in a while has been slightly positive in Q4. We also had positive net production for the entire year. As we discussed in the prior quarters, our client retention has remained high at 92.3%. The pricing has been down at 1.4% in line with the historical trend in this industry. We've continued to see good growth at our information business venture at more than 16%. Factoring has been finally stabilized after 3 quarters of a harder time and ends up slightly positive at 0.3%. On the loss side, the -- I would say loss ratio at 35.2% is better by 2.5 points. The combined ratio is up 1.2 points. You can see the break underneath. The gross loss is better by 2.5. We've remained very consistent in the way we've reserved and we've seen some nice releases from the prior years. The cost ratio was up 3.6%. I think we discussed that throughout the first 3 quarters of the year on -- and the impact is both revenues that ends up flat and continued investments. We haven't changed our stance during the year, continue to deliberately invest in sales in data and in technology. The combined ratio comes in at 68.7%, which is higher for Q4 by 9.7 points but that's compared to a record low at end of '23, which was impacted, as you know, by the strong inflation environment that we were just experiencing. So net income at EUR 261 million that's up almost 9% from 2024. It's our best year so far under IFRS 17 rules. We mentioned through a press release a bit earlier that we signed the acquisition of a company called Cedar Rose, which is in the Middle East. It's 1 of the 2, we believe, best information providers in that part of the world which is a part of the world where it's hard to get good quality information. So it's not a very big company, a few millions of turnover, but it's really a good base for us to start from in terms of quality and access to informing this part of the world. We appointed Gonzague Noël as the new COO, replacing Declan Daly. Gonzague has a long experience of this function, both in France and internationally. He's a former GE alumni and spent over 10 years in HSBC and similar function. So I think it's going to be a really nice addition to the team. On Page 5, you see our solvency remains strong at 196%. The proposed dividend per share is up EUR 0.10 from last year at EUR 1.4. We had another good year in terms of return on average tangible equity at almost 14%, 0.5 point better than '23, and that's our best year so far. As I said, the solvency at 196% is above the target range and very consistent with what we've shown historically. We have been renewing our reinsurance contracts at the end of the year. Very stable in terms of session rates and the terms of the treaties that we've renewed. So continued good appetite, I would say, in the market for our program so far. We -- so basically, in terms of where we are, I think COFACE has continued to show strong performance throughout 2024. As you know, the environment is challenging. It's volatile, it's moving by the minute. In general, the economies, particularly in Europe, are slowing. We've been in that environment very consistent in our stance. We've maintained a high technical margin. We've fended off, I would say the rise in insolvencies that you see around the world. We continue to invest in the things that we identified in our power of the core plan. We are now more than 600 people in the business information venture and that's growing double digits. We've launched, as you know, a venture, another one in debt collection, and that's growing almost 20%. It's still small, but it's nice growth. And you'll see in the following pages. We've benefited at this time for better as we've repositioned the portfolio, and we've been delivering nice cash flows for the company. On Page 6, we added a page as we do from time to time just to highlight where we stand in the cycle that's something that we are getting asked very frequently. So you can see on the top left, post-COVID story with a slump in the economy back in 2020, followed by a couple of years of significant inflation, which has come down, I would say, very quickly at the end of '23 and pretty much translated in the world that we've known in '24. And you can see the impact of that inflation cycle on our client activity on the top left. So basically, last year, outside of the fourth quarter, we pretty much had 0 activity. And you can see on the bottom left, the major insolvencies trends for the key markets and the key economies basically a drop after 2020 when public money came in to dampen the effects of COVID and a steady rise from then ending up with insolvencies that are 20% to 30% higher than they were in 2019 in all the major economies. So throughout that cycle, we've pretty much stayed very consistent in the way we operate. We continue to support our clients. We -- as you know, we choose our clients carefully for long-term partnership. We've continued to support them with a 4.5% growth in our exposures at the end of the year. We've remained willing but selective on new business, and we see higher demand, obviously triggered by the environment in which we are. We've continued to invest deliberately in the key areas that we've identified in our Power the Core plan. So more than 600 people as we speak. We've doubled our technology investments. And we have seen client activity that was still below, I would say, the historic average some commodities have come down. However, as you're aware, the inflation is now at a low point, and it seems like it might actually linger around a little bit more. There's a lot of uncertainty in terms of tariffs and other trade war issues potentially. But -- so I think at this stage, we feel like the deflationary environment that we've known is kind of starting to shift. And then in terms of the actions that we've been taking. You can see the number of actions on our portfolio from '19 to '24 has increased by 25%. We do this, as I remind you, on a granular basis, we have 5 million lines of different lines on different companies and we really follow the news and follow the trends in the market on a line-by-line basis, and that's really the value add of COFACE. And I think it serves us well with the environment that we're in. So we have 1 more page on page -- it doesn't have a number, but on CSR. And we've actually shown this page several times over the past few years. We've simplified it because I think it's -- it was getting a little bit complicated. You can see on the right-hand side, we've been driving the culture -- the CSR culture deep into the company. We now have champions in every region and every country. We take that seriously. We've really taken a leading role and this has been recognized, we obtained our first EcoVadis rating which positions up as a silver level, which is in the top 15% of all companies that they've assessed over the last 12 months. So clearly, we're having an impact. The 3 key pillars we've highlighted in the past are responsible insurer, and that what we want to do there is to reduce the carbon consumption of our investment portfolio. You can see that we made quite a bit of progress. At this stage, we're down 48%. It might be a little misleading because our target was 30%. Clearly, I would say the methodology and the metrics around those numbers are still in flux and still evolving. So -- but I think the key is given the methodology that was available at the time when we set the targets, we are making significant progress and clearly getting better. As a responsible employer, our target is to have 40% women in top 200 by 2030. We started out at 34%. We are now at 38%. So it's growing steadily, but surely. We absolutely do not want to compromise quality, but we believe this is an important feature. And then finally, as a responsible enterprise, we have committed to reduce our carbon consumption by 11%. We are now at 27%. We had a bit of a stream of luck here with COVID in a way because that helped us move to a stronger work from home policy, which has, in turn, allowed us to reduce the buildings that we use and to reduce the commutes and that's having a strong impact in terms of carbon. So there again, we are -- despite the growth of the company, both in EFTs and in turnover, et cetera, and limits. We are actually reducing our carbon consumption by about 27%. Moving on to the next pages. So Page 9 is our usual first page on growth. You can see, as I said before, volume down 0.6% for the year, so better for Q4. Trade -- TCI, trade credit insurance down 2.2%. We actually saw revenue in Q4, up 3.7%, as I said. Other revenues are up 8.2% with information, as I said, 16%, third-party debt collected almost 20% and factoring stable. And finally, insurance fees, which is what we bill our insurance clients continue to perform pretty well at 6.6% growth. So a good performance on the fees, and that helps clearly with the cost ratio in the P&L. On Page 10, you can see how that breaks out across the regions, it actually pretty much reflects the state of the economies that we operate in. Western Europe, as you've seen, is flat. It's a tougher environment in Northern Europe, comprising Germany and in Central Europe, which are being faced with both high cost of energy and high cost of labor. Med and Africa, the bright spot in Europe as we see, particularly the Italian and the Spanish economies actually outperformed the rest of Europe for once and continuing to grow. North America, we see paradoxically less risk and probably more competition in the market, Asia Pacific as well. And in Latin America, we have pretty much seen some growth after a year in 2023, where we were focused on controlling the risks and more on insolvencies than on growth. So that's really what the story is on a geographical standpoint. On Page 11, you can see another type of breakdown. So new production, as I mentioned in the past presentations, new business is up from '22 and '23, almost at the level of '21. So clearly, there's more demand, we continue to remain selective making sure we enter viable, long-term relationships with new clients. Retention, while not as high as '23 is still very strong at 92.3%. We have had to take some risk actions in certain parts of the world on a very selective basis, and that's weighing a little bit on the retention. The price effect after coming down very significantly in '22 and '23 is back in line with the historic average at minus 1.4%. And the volume effect is at 0. This is below the, I would say, the historic trend. But clearly, the effect of the end of the end of, I would say, the inflation surge that we've experienced over the last 3 years. On the next page is the loss story on Page 12. You can see on the top left pretty much a continuation of the same trends that we've highlighted now for a lot of quarters in a row. We see the continuation of a 3-year normalization in the market, which leads, as I said, to 20% to 30% more insolvencies in the world than we had in 2019. We do see a number of claims in '24 that is about 6% lower than what we experienced in '19. We've been able to adjust our underwriting, I would say, as the normalization moves on, but the amounts are higher. And we are seeing more and more larger companies being impacted by insolvencies as the insolvencies continue and work their way up the food chain. We haven't changed our reserving stance. You can see the new vintage has opened at 85% pre-discount. You can see that the prior vintages continue to throw back some nice reserves releases, and that's really how we get to the 30.6% loss ratio before reinsurance. If we go to Page 13, you see the yearly development of losses by regions. So the 4 largest regions, the most stable ones. I don't think there's much to talk about here, a very stable at levels, all below the 40% range. So really, I think things in control a little bit more volatility in the 3 smaller markets on the page, particularly Latin America and Asia Pacific, have always been the areas where we see more volatility. So we had to work on risk in '23 in Latin America, and we've done so, and it's coming down pretty nicely. In Asia, we've had a few files towards the end of the year and in '24 and experienced a little bit more. But that, I would say that's really the -- what we do as a business. On Page 14, you see the same story being developed quarter-by-quarter. So again, not much to talk about. Maybe a few insolvencies in Northern Europe and some conservatism as we've seen more bankruptcies targeting or affecting large companies in that part of the world. And then you can see the same variations I mentioned in Latin America and a few files again in Asia Pacific. If we go to the next page. This is on the cost side. So you see the total cost for the year up 5.5% from '23. Same story for Q4. We're up 5.7% from Q4 '23. The cost ratio, as we've commented already several times, it's been up this year, which is unusual. But it's driven by a few things. And you can see the breakdown on the bottom left-hand side of the chart. First of all, the premiums are not growing anymore, and that's about costing us about 1 point of cost ratio. We continue to invest in sales for TCI and direct sales in data in technology, and that's 1.5% as we grow our BI business, which operates at a 100% cost ratio, more or less. And then we have cost inflation that's been embarked from the inflationary cycle and was a benefit, I would say, in the beginning of the cycle and it works the other way at the end of the cycle. So that's 1.5 points, partly offset by a better product mix as we drive services and that helps improve the mix. So that's pretty much the story. I'm going to turn it over to Phalla for the next few pages.

Hi, everyone. So I will take the next pages. Now we're on Page 16. On the reinsurance side, as Xavier said, I think our treaties proportional and nonproportional have been renewed for 2025 at similar terms and conditions. If we look at the numbers in terms of cession rate, premium cession rate and claim cession rate has not changed much compared to last year. That leads us to a strong reinsurance results going back to the reinsurers at EUR 118 million -- of course, they are also benefiting from a very good operational performance. Lead us to Page 17, the net combined ratio at 65.5% increased by 1.2 points compared to last year. You can see the story here between the net cost ratio and the net loss ratio. This is driven by the increase of net cost ratio pretty in line with what Xavier said about the increase of the gross net cost ratio. Net loss ratio has decreased, but this is due to the fact that this year, we have released the reserve, especially related to the large claims that we had last year on Latin America. If we move to Page 18, so the financial portfolio -- investment portfolio, the mark-to-market end up at almost EUR 3.3 billion. Of course, you can see that we have -- we still continue to benefit from a very strong operational cash generation that is now invested at 4.1%. In terms of asset allocation has not changed much since last quarter with a pretty high asset class on liquid assets and cash at 40%. Of course, we are piling up some cash in order to pay some dividend in May. I think we will be paying almost EUR 210 million of dividend. If we move to the net investment income, this is a huge improvement compared to last year. I will start with the recurring one. So recurring income, we can see that the accounting yield without realized gain and loss is up 1.1%, moving from 2% to 3.1%. This is translated in terms of revenue in the first line from almost EUR 65 million to almost EUR 97 million this year. Last year, we also had some one-offs, so negative one-offs in 2023. I will start with the unrealized gain and loss, especially the one that we have booked -- the unrealized losses that we have booked on the investments in our real estate funds. I think last year, we have booked almost EUR 25 million, EUR 26 million. This year, the amount that we booked is much, much lower. So you have this big improvement in terms of fair value through P&L. What we have also as a one-off, a negative one-off last year is on the FX line, minus EUR 38 million compared to minus EUR 3 million this year. Remember that last year, we have been heavily impacted in Argentina with the devaluation of the peso versus U.S. dollars. I think we have booked almost EUR 25 million FX impact -- negative impact in 2023. That fortunately didn't happen again in '24. This explains, I think, from the recurring and nonrecurring items, the significant improvement in terms of investment income. In terms of IFE or insurance finance expenses, you can see that the level is pretty similar to what we had last year. So nothing to be added on this front. This led us to a net income of EUR 261 million. I really want to highlight the very good improvement of operating income. We're talking about almost 13%, helped by, of course, the higher investment income. Slight higher tax rate. I think we booked some -- we took some impact related to the worldwide 15% tax that has been -- that is now applicable for France and for OECD countries. And we also booked some reserves, I think put some prudency in some regions. This leads us to a net income improvement by almost 9% compared to last year is the highest record high under IFRS 17 at EUR 261 million. If we move to Page 20, return on average tangible equity, I will start with the change in IFRS equity. So we started with EUR 2.051 billion and we will end up at EUR 2.194 billion. Of course, we paid our dividend in May '24. We are recording the net income of the year and the EUR 72 million is basically the positive mark-to-market coming from our investment portfolio, more specifically from our fixed income portfolio as the interest rate has decreased slightly. This relates to a return on average tangible equity improvement from 13.4% to 13.9%, helped by the significant increase on the financial results. Of course, for year-end, we'll comment on capital management. So I'll move to Page 22. Strong balance sheet at almost EUR 8.1 billion. We commented the investment portfolio, factoring assets at EUR 3.1 million, backed by factoring liabilities. And you recognize the EUR 600 million -- almost EUR 600 million of Tier 2 debt that we have issued 2 years ago. Book value per share of EUR 14.7, tangible book value per share at EUR 13.1. I think we're now trading above this level, which is good. In terms of solvency ratio, we're moving from 199% to 196%. So still way above the upper range of our comfort zone. Of course, as we said, I think we are financing our organic growth. You know that as Xavier mentioned, our exposure has grown by 4.4% at EUR 715 billion. What is interesting as usual to look at is on the right-hand side with the shocks that we have. So the first part is, of course, the financial market shocks, you can see that for all the shocks in terms of interest rates, spreads, or stock or equity market shocks, we still end up way above the upper range of our comfort zone. If we look at the seventh type of shock, which is the financial -- the crisis shock, which is the losses, of course, we always refer to 150%, which is a 2008 similar financial shock -- similar financial stock -- shock, sorry. We will end up with 181%, which is a strong solvency ratio again. And this is thanks to the fact that we are reserving prudently, as Xavier said, you can see that we're opening the new vintage at 85% undiscounted. If we move to the next page, page 24. This is the breakdown of our solvency ratio between the capital requirement. So the total capital requirement ended up at EUR 1.340 billion and to be compared with the eligible own funds of EUR 2.630 billion. With this, I will give the floor back to Xavier.

So just to wrap it up, I think it's another strong year for COFACE, a better Q4 in terms of volume. The best IFRS year -- IFRS 17 year that we've had with a record ROE at almost 14%, continue to show a strong balance sheet with a strong solvency and we enjoy now a better return on our portfolio investments. So I think that would be my view on the year. I mean, net income up almost 9% in a rising claims environment. The company continues to execute. And we're starting to see services deliver some growth. I think we are -- as I mentioned, we're now well above 600 people. We've announced the acquisition of Cedar Rose, which is going to give us another tool yet on -- and these are just all add up, I mean, in the data space. In the meantime, we've also added, which benefits both the BI and the insurance business, 30 people in data office and 30 people in a data lab. We're seeing nice growth in those spaces as well as debt collection. Clearly, the environment is a question as you are all aware, it's in flux. There's a lot of things happening on an almost daily, if not hourly basis. So there continues to be demand, I think, in the market. The value proposition that we have, which is to manage lines on a one-by-one basis and be very flexible and very focused on short-term outcomes here. But in the long-term partnership, I think that works well in this kind of environment. We are -- it looks like the decrease of inflation is pretty much behind us. And the last -- we always said that the last mile would be the hardest one and I think we're right in there. So clearly, I think COFACE well positioned continues to execute and ready to face, I don't know, whatever the environment is going to offer us. So with that, I think we're done with this presentation right on time pretty much, and happy to take questions from all of you.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question and the question from the line of Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

Congratulations on another amazing quarter, amazing year. We're getting used to it, so we'll be surprised when it doesn't happen again. I have 3 questions and they're a bit geeky, very unless like. So aspects for memory, the initial aspects used to be around 75%. I know it was a different accounting environment, but still -- and we're now at 85%. Can you give us a feel for how much buffers you've got now or how much you've built up or I don't know how you look at it. I know you kind of referenced to it in the kind of crisis loss event. The second is we had growth in Q4 and your lovely colleague whispered to me the numbers, I think, 4%. And I'm just wondering, is that the new trend? Can I say 3.4% for going forward, we should be lovely. And I had another question, which you'll say you can't answer, but maybe you got -- I'm sure you've got experience around that. We -- large claims normally are often associated with fraud, which is virtually invisible until the economy really does turn down. When -- can you -- from your memory, when would you -- when is the time of most risk for such claims? Because clearly, in your numbers, there are no large claims at the moment. So I'm just wondering how to factor that risk in.

So let me -- Michael, let me make sure I understand the question. So your question is on fraud and being more on the fraud and once...

Yes, that's correct.

Claims being more [ during ] the fraud, right? Yes.

Yes, just when they happen.

Yes, we've had our share of fraud. I mean you remember maybe the Brazilian file, which is the biggest in -- probably in our history that we've seen, which was 1 of the biggest ones which took the whole market. So these things pop up on a regular basis. You're right to say that when the economy stands, that's when people get tempted to play around on the margins to try to survive a little bit longer and then you have issues. So I think in the last 9 years, I've been with COFACE, we've seen some pretty significant ones. I don't see a trend right now, but they keep popping up, and it's very hard to predict. So that's part of our business. In terms of growth in the fourth quarter, yes, we had 3-something point of growth. I don't think you can call it a trend, but it's 1 data point. Where that goes, I think, is everybody's question. The only thing I can say is that we have gone down from the 10-plus percent inflation environment that we were in for a while, down to back to, I don't know, 2% to 3%. It's anybody's guess as to where that goes. There could be tensions linked to enhanced trade wars, more tariffs. There could be relaxation because people are going to produce more oil and stuff like this. It's very hard to say where this is going. But I think that the main message here is that the steep decline phase that we've seen is pretty much over. I think that's the main message. And on the first one, I'm not sure I understood you were referring to is this the opening reserves, no?

Correct. Yes, the 85%, which I mentioned. And for memory, it used to be around 72%, 73%.

Well, I mean, I think we -- it's been kind of consistent, quite frankly. And we do operate in an environment which is obviously been normalizing. So I think we went down to 72%, maybe or 75%. I don't remember the number exactly, but as we were exiting the COVID era and claims have come down quite significantly. I mean, obviously, the level of risk, as I've mentioned several times, has been rising steadily but surely over the last 3 years. So I think that's where we are. Phalla, you want to say a word?

Yes. I think your 72-ish is, I would say, not quite a long time ago. I think since a couple of -- if you look at the '22, '23, '24, under IFRS 17 undiscounted, I think we have been rather closer to 80% and to 70% undiscounted basis which is nearly...

There's no major shift here, Michael, in the policy.

We will take our next question and the question comes from the line of Amalie Zdravkovic from Deutsche Bank.

This is Amalie from Deutsche Bank. I just have 2, if that's okay. So on sort of tariffs and -- or potential tariffs. Is there an update on this? And sort of are you seeing potentially sort of changing trade flows, for example, sort of trade moving around from different regions? And then maybe from this, if you can sort of elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing in terms of client activity picking up in 4Q, that would be great. And then just on solvency, I mean you're far above sort of the upper end of your target range even in a sort of 1 in 50 scenario. So I was just wondering if you could just sort of remind us of how you're thinking about excess capital?

Okay. Well, on the first one, I think we had several opportunities in the past to comment on this. So tariffs, there's a lot of tariff noise. There may be some tariff action, but we haven't seen that in action yet. I mean last time, President Trump was elected, we did have tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum and that did cause some effects clearly. So is this going to be the case again? I mean, I think we'll have to wait and see, and it's impossible for us to take action before we actually see things being put in place. Now what I can tell you, the other thing is you cannot move supply chains overnight. It just doesn't happen because of all the investments in the plants and the distribution all the logistics and everything. So yes, we have seen shifts gradually slowly. We have seen what we call the connecting countries developed mainly Mexico and Vietnam. But now these are also being questioned as you're well aware. So there is no absolute answer for anybody on how to manage your supply chain except you don't want to have too much of a dependency on 1 if you can avoid it. And I -- so I think the main issue right now is people are wondering where to put their money and where to make the investments. And I don't think anybody has a clear -- very, very clear answers here. In terms of solvency, this is a debate we've had for years. So basically, our goal here is to find the right balance between safety of the company for -- from a regulatory standpoint, from a shareholder standpoint, from a client standpoint, from a rating agency standpoint, from a reinsurance market standpoint and from the banks who fund our activities, right? So we have defined in accordance with the regulator a 155 to 175 range. We have consistently been above that range, I think, over the last few years. And we've always said that our goal was to do 3 things. One, to be able to fund growth where growth happens. And we've been surprised, for example, during COVID, that growth got to double digits, which we hadn't seen for years. So we got to be ready to handle this because it's a really nice opportunity when it happens. We also want to be able to do acquisitions if and when they happen. So we have had a few over the years, and Cedar Rose is another example. And then finally, if we want to reward shareholders and we're not intent on retaining way too much equity if we don't need it. But I think at this stage, we feel we're at a good level, well positioned when we -- when it comes to facing the environment that we're in. And we still have a, I would say, the best yield in the insurance industry in Europe at least, and probably in much of the rest of the world as well. So we're -- with an 80% payout, I think we've got a good balance. I'm not sure we get a whole lot more credit for more dividend at this stage.

Your next question comes from the line of Pierre Chedeville from CIC.

It's a question based on a reflection, when we hear the comments of the bankers in Europe, what they say in Spain, in Italy, in France, in Germany, almost everywhere in Europe. They don't see the cost of risk increase for 2025 and even 2026 and we have a little bit impression that the cost of risk has more or less disappeared in Europe with, let's say, a cost of risk at a low level in absolute terms. So I wanted to see what is your view on from your part, from what you see in your trade credit insurance regarding this disappearance of the cost of risk? And my second question is about BI. Could you tell us what is the growth of BI in Q4 because I didn't find it.

I'll let Phalla find the number for Q4 because I don't -- it's still double digits, but I can't remember any exact number. But in terms of the environment, I mean, clearly, the number insolvency. So we -- just so we're clear, COFACE is focused on corporate risk mainly on mid-market and large companies and 50% Europe, 50% rest of the world. And so what we describe as our risk levels is strictly that market. We don't do individual lines. For example, we're not catering to the general public or we're not involved in the markets. And we are at short-term view of the risk. So yes, there is -- I mean the insolvencies are clear, loud and clear. They are higher. They've been growing. I think the -- we are seeing it in our claims numbers as well. We're seeing more claims, they're bigger in amounts. We are managing actively the claims. Now whether the bankers have established lots of reserves, and they feel comfortable so far because compare it to historic average, they have a good level of reserves and the numbers haven't been growing very fast, that's possible. But I think what we describe it is what we see in the marketplace.

The second question. So on Q4 on BI growth on the Q4 only, it's 14% -- slightly above 14%. So still in double digit.

By the way, yes, that's what I had in mind. But I think I would always caution you to look at a quarterly number for a business, which is still in growth mode or in an infancy mode or in start-up mode or whatever you call it. So there's -- it will have some volatility quarter-to-quarter. I'm more interested in the medium-term performance than I'm on one specific quarter.

We will take our next question. And the question comes from the line of Benoit Valleaux from ODDO BHF.

A few questions on my side. The first 1 is maybe a bit general question for Xavier, but how do you read the '24 figures compared to the target you provide or you gave beginning of last year in your '27 strategic plan. You mentioned the fact that number of bankruptcies is above 2019 level. And despite this, your combined ratio is much better than expected. RoATE is well above your overall cycle target. So how do you see it? Or do you really -- do you believe that your targets are a bit too conservative or so curious to hear your view on that. Maybe the second question is on cost. And I have 2 questions within that, if I may. So first 1 is just to check if you still plan to invest all your revenues in BI into growth this year, meaning that I wouldn't expect any contribution from BI this year or not? And the second, you've named a new COO. Did you identify any cost savings, cost efficiency potential and maybe some restructuring charges to be booked this year. And then I have 2 very quick short question maybe for Phalla. The first 1 is related to tax rate. What could we expect this year is the 29% the new I would say, normalized tax rate to be expected for this year? And the second 1 is regarding IFE, insurance finance expenses. I can notice that the discount benefit has reduced in '24 compared to '23 in the same time, you have a higher level of reserves. So what could we expect for this year? Do we expect or should we expect broadly stable IFE figures compared to last year or not?

Okay. So let me start with the Power the Core question. So we have said at the beginning of Power the Core improved targets versus build to lead. And I think the short is yes, we are doing well. The company has clearly performed well versus its plan in 2024 and a -- in an environment which is increasingly risky, but on a -- I would say, on a growth -- on a stable, smooth trend, right, of increased risk. So we have been able to manage, I would say, the slowdown in inflation, we've been able to manage so far the increase in insolvencies that we've seen. And we've been able to continue to invest in the business. So I think we're -- I think the business is doing well. So that's the question. But the target that we have is a through-the-cycle kind of target. So it's -- I think the intention there is to say we want to do better than we did in the prior plan. And that's been the way we've measured our performance through in the last 9 years in a very consistent way. On the cost side, so in BI, this is a high-growth business, which we're building from scratch in a way, not quite from scratch because we had the insurance infrastructure. But as we build it up in tens of countries around the world, we are seeing the need for continued investment, whether it's people, whether it is technology, whether it is data, whether it is capabilities around connectivity and stuff like this. So it requires investment. And it's really our ambition, I think, is to really try to build something meaningful. And to do this, we need to continue to invest. So we're not focused on trying to make money out of it. I mean, if we slow down the investment, it obviously becomes easier. But I think for us, the key -- and if you look at the valuation of such businesses in the market, it's really can we make it skilled? Can we bring it to a certain level of size. So we put it -- I remind you that in the part of the core, we put a line in the sand saying that we'd make 0.5% of return on this in 2027. We're still in the beginning of '25, so there's still some time here to go through. In terms of the new COO, I mean, I think in our industry, like in any financial services industry, it's a lot easier to make improvements on a long-term basis and continue to work at your cost base and digitizing your processes and introducing new technology and stuff like this on a continuous basis than it is to just do a big bang and forget about it. So that's not what we are doing. And so there is continuous work required at every level in the company at every single process to try to make it simpler, better, faster, cheaper. And that's what we're doing. And it takes permanence in the intent and continuous execution, and that's what this is when the COO's job is going to be. So Gonzague is coming here to help us do this. There's always going to be more we can do, but it's -- I don't expect it to be a massive shakeup of the company, which we've already quite frankly, shaken up quite a bit. I'll let Phalla handle the next 2 questions.

That's right. So in terms of tax rate, I would say that a couple of components, I think, that explain this level of tax rate in '24. I would say the first one, as I mentioned, is the implementation of Pillar 2, the minimum worldwide tax of 10% minimum tax of 15% for OECD country, this has an impact of a couple of millions for full year. We had some timing and some prudent stance as well in some parts of the world. I think that explains the tax rate. I would probably say it's high, it's probably 1 of the highest, I don't expect that to go further of course -- well, this is a cautious sense, but this is high. But we have some prudence taken. We have an impact on Pillar 2 and some mix in terms of countries. We have countries where we have higher tax and lower tax. So this also explains part of that. In terms of IFE, I think we probably are going through a kind of run rate, if you want, about EUR 40-ish million per year.

We will take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Baptiste de Leudeville from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes, just 1 question. It's on competition. Do you see your competitor tightening their credit limits. We know they have a higher loss ratio. So I would like to know if you're seeing this. And do you expect to benefit -- to take advantage of it at some point? And are you looking at it as a potential driver for the top line growth in the -- in 2025?

Yes. So on this one, I mean, it's -- we call it a street fight. And everywhere around the world, we are street fighting around individual client cases. And as I said, earlier, our stance so far since COVID has been to be very reasonable, very disciplined. To have the courage to do what it takes to win, but also to have the courage to say, no, when no is warranted. And we've done this very consistently. We have seen what I would call irrational behavior sometimes on a local deal-by-deal basis. We stayed out of this. We continue to see some of this, but we also see a little bit more disciplined, I would say. But that's still -- we are in 50 countries or 70 countries, and it's a discussion that takes place in 70 different places with multiple competitors. So it's a little bit hard to generalize. I would say that things getting a little bit more tight mean probably a little bit more disciplined, but it's far from being an overwhelming trend at this stage, yes.

We will take our next question the question comes from the line of Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

And just a couple of geeky questions. The insurance SCR I think I have this right is flat although your exposure is up. I just wondered if you can comment on that. The investment in services, you're continuing. So I don't know if the number is 60 or 30 people or whatever, but now you're at 600 people. When do you think you'll reach that level where the -- when it's big enough? And then very simply, what is the figure for revenues in Business Information?

Yes. The figure of revenues was EUR 70 million last year in BI. So that's the number. In terms of investment in services, look, this thing to be meaningful to COFACE, it's going to have to be big. I think if it's small, it's -- even though it can be successful if it's small, it's not going to mean much. So the question for us is we have been building start-ups in tens of countries around the world, there are still very small businesses in the scheme of things. That's why we put, as I said, this landmark 0.5% in '27. That's -- I think that stated our ambition for the plan, and we haven't changed on our view on this. So -- and then in terms of the insurance SCR, I'll let Phalla take that one.

Yes. It's a matter of a couple of components. Yes, the exposure is up, but it's slightly up. It's not usually up, it is one thing. And of course, you can look at our loss ratio, it's still pretty low with some good years coming through. So I think that's a good shakeup in our model because it's a model and it's more or less compensated. I will put it this way.

Sorry, I didn't catch that. It's more or less?

They have some offset. And also, I think what is not shown here is the quality of our portfolio. When that issue, nothing on the Page 5 or 5 or 6, the prevention actions. So we're growing our exposure, but I think we are very, very strict in terms of quality of our underlying portfolio. And of course, you know that the quality of our exposure is one key criteria in terms of capital consumption.

Okay. That's the mix between the -- well I can't remember the 1% to 7% or 8% to 9% or something?

Exactly.

There seems to be no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back for closing remarks.

Well, look, thank you very much for attending this conference. It closes off another good year for COFACE in '24. We are all focused on executing for '25 already, which has started. And as you know, is going to be another interesting year. So I think we're going to close it off. We're right on time, a couple of minutes before the hour. Our next call will be, do we have date, Thomas?

Yes, it will be on May 5.

May the 5th.

May 5. Okay. May the 5th. That's when we meet again. And thank you again for logging in. Looking forward to our next call. Thank you, everyone.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.