Colonial SFL, Socimi S. A. (COL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Inmobiliaria Colonial Full Year 2023 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Mr. Pere Vinolas, CEO of Inmobiliaria Colonial, please, sir, go ahead.

Thank you. This is Pere Vinolas speaking. Good afternoon to everyone. I'm pleased to introduce the presentation of results for 2023. Before going through the specific results, I would like to start by saying a few words on where do we see the market today and where do we see our strategic positioning and where our clients are today regarding Colonial and in our sector. What we have been realizing in these previous months, and in the next -- in the previous weeks is that it's clear that Colonial is strategically positioned in the urban product of the future. Let's put it this way. What clearly is happening with markets with our clients, what business wants is that it's a clear confirmation that there's a preferred option for Prime, center locations for good commuting to your place where you work, for good experiences where you work with amenities, with services. For spaces, with light and spacious, communal areas, again, with a well-being space for everybody. And this is being a clear winner in the behavior of our markets. And it's proving how scarce these assets is. And that where Colonial is strategically positioned its focus. And I think that we are clearly benefiting from this trend. Our current position in a few sentences, first of all, we are outperforming on letting activity. We are outperforming achieving the highest occupancy rate. We are capturing rental growth, which is above average. We are attracting the best clients. And therefore, we are delivering strong cash flow, which is growing. This is the strategic framework where Colonial is and this is what explains the results that we are sharing today with you. I'm on at Page 5 now of our presentation to go into numbers -- into the headlines. There are four areas which I'd like to comment quickly. The first is about cash flow. Year 2023 has been a year of a strong cash flow growth. Our net rental income has grown 9% like-for-like that is a very robust number in absolute terms, but also very good number in relative terms compared with our history and compare to our market, to our competitors. Our EBITDA has grown by 12%, our EPS has grown by 7%, beating the guidance, and our EPS, if measured by continued operations, has grown 18%. The reason behind this strong cash flow growth is mainly the operational outperformance. We've signed contracts at historical record -- historical high level of almost 160,000 square meters. That is very important, not only in looking backwards, but looking forward, thinking about our future P&L. Occupancy at the end of the year was 97%, which is a leader position in our European framework. Rental growth year-on-year is 7%, supporting the trend towards polarization that is at the heart of our strategy. And rental growth is not only good throughout the year, but it's accelerating. Rental growth for the last quarter of the year was 11%. The capital allocation strategy of the company has remained very active. We've been disposing of those assets that were mature enough to crystallize an additional value for shareholders. we disposed of more than EUR 700 million and more importantly, confirming the appraisal values, all of them. So that prove that both liquidity and valuation of our assets are in the right position. As a consequence, debt reduction has been almost EUR 500 million. In the meantime, the quality of our debt remains very high with 100% of the debt at fixed cost the cost of debt at 1.75% spot. And we've been in a year of repricing, as you know, of adjustment to the market. Our assets are being adjusted downwards 9%, when you look at the European framework at the European landscape, and when you look at different quality of each asset, adjusted for quality, this performance in relative terms is satisfactory. Finally, the nonfinancial KPIs that for us are very important regarding ESG. What they show is a leadership in the case of Colonial. Our rating in Sustainalytics put us at the top 0.2% of the global community of companies that are following Sustainalytics and #1 in Spain as a company. Our CDP score remains at A, which put us at the top 1.5%, that is the highest percentile in the global index at the top level. GRESB is providing a score of 94 which, again, is putting us at the very top of the leadership of companies in this parameter. And finally, at the asset level, 100% of our assets are BREEAM or LEED, which in comparable terms, is nonexisting in Europe. Page 6. So this bet on quality is clearly seen in these 2 maps, where you can see what's happening in our sector. What's going on in Prime CBD markets in the super Prime CBD market, I have to say, is that occupancy is what you see in this two maps. It's not what is happening in secondary markets, which is different but it's excellent. And we are insisting in looking at the fundamentals of the companies and looking at the difference and the difference is there. And you can see that also in Page 7, where you can see is that the Colonial's playing field, which is the super Prime and in our sector, is behaving in a remarkable different way that the office market as a whole benefiting from the scarcity of the product that we own, which is highly rewarded and highly followed by the market [Technical Difficulty] representing today are super strong in terms of operational performance are very good in relative terms in terms of valuation. And the driver behind this is a very specific positioning of the company that is in line with market trends and that put us in a better profile in order to transform this positioning in actual returns. I will now hand over to Carmina Ganyet to go through the section on the financial performance of the company.

Thank you, Pere. So in this section, we are going to detail the main financial indicators and the keys that underline the strong evolution of this recurring results. As Pere has mentioned, in general terms, I would like to highlight that the recording results has been described first by a strong growth of the cash flow. So revenues increasing 8% like-for-like, as well in the same direction, the EBITDA growing 12%, and 18% considering the continued operation, and recurring the net profit per share increasing 7% year-on-year, 18% considering -- without considering the asset sales. Secondly, the second semester with the valuation update is also described by a strong resilience in the valuation of our portfolio compared to some peers adjust to the quality of the assets. So a decrease of 9% with asset value in 12 months, meaning that portfolio value of EUR 11.4 billion, and NTA per share of EUR 9.9 per share, 40% -- 14% decrease in 12 months pre dividend. And finally, the financial discipline and the disposal delivery. We have demonstrated during the year as well, the ability to undertake the divestments in a very narrow market. Confirming valuations with a reduction of net debt, almost EUR 500 million. In next page, we would like to focus on the recurring results. As we said, it increased by 7%, without taking the sales into account 18%. And considering the different main impacts of this positive growth, you can see in the graph the positive contribution of the continued operation portfolio, EUR 42 million. On the other hand, the negative impact of the disposal of nonstrategic assets, as well the negative impact of the financial cost only EUR 12 million, basically due to the rate effect. Remember that during 2022, the average financial cost for the total debt was 1.44% compared to the average cost of 2023 with 1.72%. So the market has been increased by more than 300 basis points, while in Colonial, the cost of debt has been only increased 30 basis points. Consequently, the EPS increases by 7%, up to EUR 0.32 per share, beating the upper range of the initial EPS guidance. In the next page, we are going to analyze the different impacts in details of this EPS growth. So Page 11. First, the growth of EPS is basically based on a strong growth on gross rental income. The portfolio in operation adds EUR 23 million, 6%. The entry into operation of the project adds another 10% of gross rental income, EUR 35 million. Notice that this year, we have been -- we have a full impact of Biome and [indiscernible] and as well the anticipation of the delivery of Louvre des Antiquaires [indiscernible], Velazquez and Miguel Ángel are the main project that has been delivered during 2023. Important to highlight that the Alpha strategies and the pricing power of our portfolio represents 16% of gross rental income growth in the opposite direction, the sales of nonstrategic assets had an impact of a reduction of rents of EUR 35 million, and a result of that with a higher profile of our portfolio that has shown an increase gross rental income of 16%. And next page, we are going to explain where has been this growth and why. It should be noted that the total rental growth has been positively impacted by a great performance in Paris market with a 15% rental growth, 8% like-for-like, in line with the Madrid market. In comparable terms of the portfolio, the three markets have performed very positively with an extraordinary evolution in Paris and Madrid. This extraordinary like-for-like growth of 8% is basically due to a combination of rental growth, thanks to the -- due to the shortage of the product in the market where we operate. And the strong demand for the super Prime assets as well as the indexation effect, thanks to the quality of the contracts and clients and finally, 2% of the improvement in occupancy, especially in Madrid. If we look at it in the perspective on Page 13, this rental growth is being accelerated year-on-year. In this page, you can see the extraordinary year of the rental growth compared to the last few years. But above all, you can see the growth capacity of rents and the pricing power of our portfolio beyond the indexation effect as you could see in the split in 2023 impact. The other impact of the year has been the disposal, so I'm on Page 14. This year has been also characterized by a strong financial discipline in our company. In this sense, we have been doing a very attractive portfolio management in order to recycle capital and strengthen the capital structure in a market as narrow as it was in 2023, we have been able to sell almost EUR 574 million at a very -- and very important highlight, confirming valuation, as you know very well. Colonial continues with its capital recycling strategy with an additional disposal plan of additional EUR 500 million. But during the first month of the year of 2024, we have already secured EUR 150 million of sale including Méndez Álvaro residential, as you know. But very important at an overall premium of this disposal of 5% above last appraisal. So the quality and the liquidity of our portfolio gain confirms the liquidity in the market and beating the appraisal when we have been succeeding the disposal program. As you perfectly know -- sorry, it will -- sorry, because we change the -- sorry, the strategy of the recycling capital has been reinforced the capital structure, reducing net debt to close EUR 500 million, 9% of the debt and as well increasing liquidity up to EUR 2.9 billion between revolving credit lines and EUR 500 million cash covering more than 1.5x the debt maturity that expires for the next 3 years. Today, we keep this liquidity available for the company, as we showed you -- with you in the past in some presentations, we will decide the best allocation subject opportunities. So we keep as of today the optionality of this cash flow reallocation. As you perfectly know, Colonial, I'm on Page 16 has carried out a very active management of the capital structure, not only reducing net debt through disposals, as we described, but also successfully covering the interest rate and any refinancing risk. In this slide, as you can see in this page, Colonial has a very safe profile of the debt with 100% fixed cost of hedge, with a maturity profile quite comfortable as it shows the debt maturity that 77% of the debt expires after 2026. And 50% of this future debt that will be refinanced in the future is already pre-hedged at the level of rigor of 0.67%. It means that the debt is secured at a very interesting cost of debt, well below market levels, already secured for the following years, thanks to this pre-hedged position took in 2021. And finally, the reduction of debt has been positively impacting the ratio of debt-to-EBITDA from 19x to 15. But considering the portfolio in operation, the ratio has been decreased as well, reaching today a level of 12x. As a summary, no refinancing risk at all, leveraging the investment grade zone and secured cost of debt well below market levels for the following years. If now we go to the other part of the balance sheet, the asset. As we have commented previously, its valuation decreases in 2023, 9% in terms of like-for-like. If we look at each market, Paris shows a correction of 10%, Barcelona 11% and Madrid below 5%. The main impact that you see in the chart is in the Paris market due to its adjustment to the new reality of rates. In a way, this is the beauty of having a well-diversified prime asset in these three different markets. It seems as well that after these corrections and with the market consensus about long-term real rates, the asset value are bottoming out from the peak. So if we analyze the details of these corrections, the yield expansion has been offset by the pricing power of the portfolio and also by the project deliveries, as you could see in next slide in Page 18. As I shared in the bar chart, you can see how the higher rates or the higher cap rates are being offset partially 50%, 5-0, by rental growth and project delivery. But what are the cap rates included in this appraisal. You see in the left hand -- in the right-hand side when -- after being expanded since June 2022, an average portfolio of 100 basis points. The valuation yield is today an average yield of 4.35%, 5.25% net valuation yield Paris, 125 basis point expansion, 4.75% yield for Madrid, and 5% yield for Barcelona. The combination of being in these three markets, the pricing power of our assets. And I would say also, of course, the project delivery has been demonstrated a resilient profile of the portfolio compared to our peers and to other profile of assets adjust to the quality of the portfolio. And finally, the updated NTA calculation shows in this Page 19, the value correction as well, but also the benefit of the quality portfolio and the active portfolio management. The increase in cash flows and the delivery of the project have offset 50% expansion in yields resulting from the increase of rent showing consequently a decrease of NTA or 14% pre dividend, EUR 10.2 per share and EUR 9.95 per share post dividend. I would like to highlight the split of the impact of this NTA. In the one part, the negative impact of the macro of beta drivers, meaning rates and the adaptation to the new macro long-term rates. So after being adapted to the new reality of real rates. So after this consensus of the long-term rate, this impact would be one shot. But on the other hand, the capacity of value operation of Colonial platform through this Alpha strategies, through the pricing power of the portfolio, recurring earnings and project delivery with a total positive impact of 20%, and this is not 1 year impact. This is part of our strategy and of our capacity to value creation.

Thank you. We now ask Carlos Krohmer to step in, talk about the operational performance of the company.

Thank you very much, Pere. We are on Page 21. Pere mentioned, 160,000 square meters signed this year. This is quite a lot. We especially been already at very high occupancy levels. 1/3 of this has been new led and the rest has been the renovations. If we would have more space available of our top space, it would have been more -- even more square meters. And we've signed this at very good terms, 9-year terms and with the top names and also at top rates we have signed at EUR 41 in Velazquez. Velazquez one of the buildings with the highest average rent in the Madrid market. Washington Plaza tenant in the luxury business has increased space at a rent above EUR 1,000 per square meter a year. On #Cloud, we have also have a new tenant for a very large space, and we let the flagship store of adidas on the Champs-Elysees for a really absolutely record rent. All of these urban products, not just office urban product in the middle of the city. This is what we can do. High-quality product in the urban center. When we look a little bit into the detail of the market rental growth that is on the Page 22, release spreads remain strong at 5%, especially Paris. Paris has longer-term contracts. So there is relevant price increase on release spread to be captured. If we look at rental growth, very good rental growth, 7%, good growth across all markets, but more important than this, we are seeing an increase in acceleration, first quarter, 3% the earning growth, then 7%, then 11% is a clear highlight of the trend that we are seeing on the super prime in the market. When we go into the occupancy on Page 23, you can see 97% highest occupancy in the last 4 years, but being already at very high occupancy levels in the previous years. We have increased in a year 140 basis points, very highlighting the increase in Barcelona 390 basis points, and increasing in Madrid and Paris, we are basically stable at 100% occupancy level. Where is the available space? This is on Page 24. We have 3.2% of available space. 0.9% of this is CBD Madrid, Recoletos, Discovery and Window, we're already having conversations to date there. So this part of this will be led in the coming weeks. In Barcelona, and this is important to highlight, on the Barcelona market. There's sometimes some discussion. In the CBD, the occupancy is 100%, close to 100%. So we have open 2% of the vacancy corresponds to the Barcelona CBD portfolio. And then we have three assets that are basically more on the 22@, but we are having -- we are planning the different actions, and we are positive on the near-term evolution of these premises. Last word on ESG, Pere already mentioned, will be quick on this point. We have had top ratings on ESG, just to highlight, the top 0.2% globally on Sustainalytics means, we are one of the 26 best companies among 16,000 and one of the 7 best companies among 1,100 in Real Estate Europe, similar on CDP. And I think very remarkable 100% of our assets have BREEAM and LEED certifications. Last element, GRESB, 94 out of 100 and as you know, we are one of the few companies that are covering the full value chain. We are really in the business of value creation and urban transformation, and we are doing it well. We have 98 out of 100 on the GRESB score on development benchmark.

Thank you, Carlos. Final words on my side. On the strategic positioning of the company and on the future growth prospects on Page 27. Colonial has been carefully building a strategy based on quality on a differential positioning of their assets, which should allow for this particular profile of resilient cash flow growth. And also, we've been relying on a multilayer cash flow strategy. That is because of this quality that we can deliver not only full inflation hedge pass through but also enhanced rental growth that can provide cash flow that on top of that, additional value will be created by the cash flow coming from our project pipelines and from our acquisition strategy. So far, we've seen a return from this strategy happening. Today, we saw the growth in our EBITDA. Today, we saw the growth of EPS from continued operations point of view, which is double digit. We see the rewards of this as I said, not only in absolute terms but in relative terms, what we want to achieve is long-term returns that on a regular basis, provide an outside differential compared to the market because of our particular strategic positioning. In 2023, we saw that happening again. We saw in the end our assets with a higher occupancy rate, and we saw our assets with a higher gross rental income than our peers. So in assessing the value of the company, the value of our strategies, I think that coming from macro to micro and assessing the individual characteristics has to be a priority. Because of that, also, our gross asset value like-for-like variance has proven to be particularly resilient. Besides this, that we call it, ordinary cash flow generation profile, we've been successfully delivering on our existing pipeline. And in 2023, we saw the delivery of the final stage of Louvre Saint Honoré and progress in Méndez Álvaro office. Because of that, we have strong visibility, not only on additional gross rental income coming from these projects, EUR 51 million in our gross rental income P&L for 2023 annualized, but also a full potential top-up of almost 80 -- around EUR 80 million. And this allows for visibility of our cash flow profile in terms of future growth that allows us to see that our passing rent that today is at EUR 426 million, it has the potential to grow above EUR 500 million, around EUR 540 million to be more specific. So Colonial's positioning in the end is allowing for a cash flow generation profile that not only will provide quality but also growth. And on top of that, we will remain active on -- an active capital allocation strategy. We've been divesting substantially in the last period. We've been divesting 14 assets for more than EUR 700 million. That has taken place at valuation appraisal values. We remain focused on the shareholder value creation. We have an objective for -- of loading noncore for 2024 too. I will have a particular goal of divesting around EUR 500 million in additional assets. At the same time that we are considering reloading our prime pipeline with new initiatives. If I could say something about the future Alphas, the future pipelines that the company is working on is that, it will be based on a philosophy of urban regeneration, urban transformation and more in the range of mixed use as we've recently done in certain assets like Méndez Álvaro in particular. So as a conclusion, the summary of our results in 2023 is, first of all, super strong operating performance, in particular, in terms of letting performance that remains at very high historical volumes based on the scarcity of retail stock, based on the central locations that we own and qualitative benefits in terms of experience that these assets provide now. 2023 has been also a year of above average market rental growth. We've seen these like-for-like, which are very important in relative terms to our history and relative terms to our market. So providing returns that are coming with a differential to what's available for an average office investment. And 2023 has also been a year of, again, proving that the top products are during extra value and extra cash flow. And we've seen the examples of Louvre in France. We are seeing the example of Madnum. And therefore, that confirms the strong track record of Colonial in the field of urban transformation with outstanding capital value gains. And this top value is not only in terms of quantitative KPIs. It's also in terms of qualitative KPIs, such as those related to sustainability and the capacity of Colonial in developing low carbon destinations that outperforms the market in occupancy and rental levels. More specifically, as we said, we've been divesting EUR 700 million. We have a strategy to keep on divesting we have started the year in this direction, confirming the capability of Colonial in delivering these disposals at appraisal values with good liquidity and timing. Year-to-date, we have divested around EUR 150 million, and I confirm that is in line with appraisal values. And this capital allocation strategy goes hand-in-hand with good management of our capital structure with our debt, which remains fully hedged in the next 2 years and above 97% for the next 4 years. And with the cost of debt, that remains very low in the range of 1.7%. So in a nutshell, just to finish our presentation, we believe that Colonial is a well-established urban transformation platform that is proving that it can deliver a solid outperformance, that it provides a prime strategic positioning that is benefiting from polarization. That is able to deliver Alpha value creation to projects and rental growth. And that can deliver also accretive strategies through capital recycling and through disposals. We believe that the asset values have gone through a process of repricing, and we believe that our yields are approaching its peak and that is presenting an opportunity to benefit from the real estate recovery cycle. And therefore, we will be able to deliver new opportunities on our balance sheet and beyond. Just to finalize, for year 2024, we see the EPS mainly in line with the most recent performance. In other words, above the guidance that we gave 1 year ago. We see a range of EUR 0.30, EUR 0.32, that will depend on the specific disposal execution. We confirm that dividend for 2023 will be EUR 0.27 that will be proposed to the General Shareholders' Meeting, that is an 8% year-on-year that's in line with our long-term strategy of providing dividend per share that is growing in a relevant rate on a yearly basis. We believe that we have the capacity to deliver a dividend percent growth of 8% to 10% rate of growth going forward. And as I said, our strategy will inflate a disposal program of circa EUR 500 million for the year 2024. So that's all. We've been very pleased to share with you this year of results, very solid from the operational performance point of view. And now we'll be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Veronique Meertens from Kempen.

Congratulations on another set of strong operational results. I think the key worry for Colonial obviously is its balance sheet. Looking at your pro forma EPRA LTV, it's increased to 47.3%. And at the same time, so I'm curious how your discussions with the credit rating agencies are going? And if you calculate it, what kind of sort of like headroom you have in terms of valuation declines before you could get downgraded. And also curious about -- you're already talking about new opportunities on the balance sheet whereas I think investors at this point would still like to see you delever significantly before you could act on those opportunities. So curious to hear your view on that.

No. On the new opportunities, I just wanted to highlight that just in the transformation in what we own, we are able to deliver growth in our value going forward. We've just seen as this happened with assets that have just -- or projects that have just been delivered. And this, let's say, source of valuation will remain a part of our activity. Regarding debt, maybe I will ask Carmina to step in and give us a view on what you asked Veronique.

Yes. Thank you, Veronique. About debt, as you know, in the rating agencies and the conversations we have -- they don't look at only metrics like loan-to-value. They look also predictable cash flow, resilience of its cash flow -- cash flow growth and quality of this cash flow, of course. So this is our approach. And then, of course, the assumption also was a correction on the valuations. We believe, as you know, that the pricing power that has been offset 50% of this yield expansion this year, which is the record year of the expansion. The conversations are in line that the consensus about the long-term rates seems that we are bottoming out the yield expansion. And again, the fact that we have positive reversionary yield through market levels of brands adds a regional comfort to the rating metrics. So if you look at the page of the information we released, all the contracts in average terms are below market levels. So adding these market levels to the existing running rents, plus the future cash flow coming from the future projects and plus the predictable cash flows we have we are in the zone that, of course, the rating is in the investment grade. So the question is what about future correction. But I said, no, this year of record of the yield expansion has been impacted and partially offset by the pricing power. We believe that this additional yield expansion cannot be repeated on these assumptions that the rating agencies are looking at. But moreover, in this holistic approach, the most important part is the predictable cash flow and the cash flow growth.

Okay. Very clear. So just to be clear, the credit rating agencies haven't given you any indication that they would like to see you delever more than that EUR 500 million?

No, no, no. We have -- we will have after this presentation, of course, the regular meetings, but no, the meetings that we are having they are in line and supporting the strategy we are doing in this capital discipline of the balance sheet.

Okay. That's very clear and helpful. And one follow-up question on those developments. Is there any update on the scope development as the follow presentation does mention it already in a further stage, but I don't see it in our own pipeline. So I was wondering if there was a specific reason for that, and if there's any update on it?

Regarding developments is well known that we are in the final stages of the Mendez Alvaro project. It's also known that we are progressing nicely on the Rives de Seine project in Paris. We are now starting different alternatives of value creation for the Santa Hortensia asset in Madrid, and that would be the three most immediate development projects that we are working on. And for those -- for these kind of projects, and particularly for the IBM one, I would say that the value creation will come with maybe a profile more in the direction of mixed use as it happened in the Mendez Alvaro project.

The next question comes from Celine Huynh from Barclays.

I just have a question about Mendez Alvaro resi disposal. Can you confirm the price of which you were sold? I mean, because it looks like EUR 150 million in the presentation, but also the press quoted EUR 130 million. And if I look at your balance sheet, it said EUR 122 million under asset for sale.

That figure of EUR 150 million, I think, included a number of things. Well, some of them quite smaller, that were not very relevant to be specific. So yes, we confirm that disposals up to date amount for circa EUR 150 million, but that does not -- that does not mean only Mendez Alvaro residential. We cannot be specific about the numbers about this transaction as often happens in this kind of transactions. But what we want to confirm is that the amount of this transaction is in line with the appraisal for this particular asset as it has happened more generally speaking for the asset that's been disposing last year.

And Pere, can I ask you, out of the EUR 700 million disposal you're targeting this year, how much do you think you can get that would be non-yielding?

That will be non-yielding?

Yes.

No, I don't have -- yes, I...

You don't have it. Okay.

It's difficult to say because we work usually, as you can imagine, with a number of available strategies that will help us in achieving this final objective, but this may come through different avenues, depending on where the market is at every moment. I think that the assets that we will dispose will be yielding some cash as of today. That's why a limited impact can happen because of this disposal. Of course, we are always thinking of assets that either are low-yielding or close to generating nonrelevant net cash. But I cannot be specific about this. First of all, because there's no specific goal on particular assets. We have some avenues and that will depend on market conditions.

Okay. And can I go back to your guidance for this year in terms of EPS. What is your assumption around the disposals that goes into that guidance? It looks a bit low.

No, I think that it's based on different assessments on different assets and timing. So that's -- that what happens -- that is what's causing as a consequence, this range of guidance. That is -- by the way, something that we traditionally know that -- we like to be hit a little bit this way, particularly when the year starts, and we have a low visibility as year have more progress, then we'll come with more specific kind of guidance.

The next question comes from Markus Kulessa from Bank of America.

Congratulations also from my side. I will start to follow up on the disposals. Maybe just I wanted to check the 2023 signed and cash in disposals. Is it EUR 490 million, EUR 512 million, I see different numbers. And then maybe a follow-up on the disposals. The second probably EUR 500 million is the idea to do this within 2024. And if you have a net debt-to-EBITDA pro forma, the signed disposals and the pipeline rents, the EUR 80 million, this is 15x you report, is it right?

Yes. The net debt-to-EBITDA is the debt as of December 2023 and the asset values, the operational and debt EBITDA is the important one in our case. On the assets in operation as of December 23. What this means that the EUR 150 million to be cashed in during 2024 are not included in this calculation.

No. On the pro forma, I say not only includes the one that has been already secured some with already cash in, which is EUR 150 million, the remaining part. To be clear.

Exactly. Just one that has been done. No, it's not including any further target to be delivered.

Yes.

Okay. And the EUR 500 million is the aim to do this within this current year? Maybe I missed the time frame of this second...

Yes, it's 2024, Yes.

Okay. Then on -- for valuations, you said you see valuations bottoming out. We still see an acceleration in -- slightly in H2. So first question on this would be the signs you're seeing which is backing your statement, but the valuations are bottoming out. And the second question would be on the yield expansion. I see your valuation yield. You showed Slide 18, I think, 90 bps yield expansion in Paris. But if I look at the EPRA net initial yield, it's up only 25 bps to 2.6%. And if -- unless I'm wrong, I think the EPRA yields also exclude developments, et cetera. So why is it so low on absolute versus your reported valuation yield above 4% and why is the separate expansion on the EPRA basis?

Yes. Maybe I start with a general assessment on the question you were asking, and then Carlos and Carmina can be more specific about the data that you were suggesting. Well, first of all, we don't have, let's say, the capacity of forecasting what the market is going to look like by the end of 2024. So we don't have a specific, let's say, assumption on this. Our view is that when you look at the fundamental characteristics of the kind of assets that we own and what has happened so far, is that since the top of valuation of the lowest yield that we had until the current situation at the end of 2023. Our yields, for example, in Paris, that you were suggesting have gone up more than 100 basis points globally. And what we believe is that from a fundamental point of view, I think that is what an asset like the assets that we own require. So that's, let's say, an assessment or a judgment on the theoretical fair value that we see, the intrinsic value that we see in the assets like the one that we -- the ones that we own. Then the specific market behavior, we always have to be very humble about what it may happen during this year. But just want to emphasize that from a fundamental point of view, I'm looking at the intrinsic characteristics of our assets we think that we've gone quite a long way in what had to happen. And today, if we look at what the expected return that an asset like ours can provide with current yields that own today, what -- how this return compared to, let's say, other kind of assets that -- like fixed income or probably that can provide, looking at the intrinsic quality of the assets, well, we believe that from a fundamental point of view, it makes sense to say that a great adjustment has been done, we remain always prudent about market conditions, having said that. And more specifically about yields, maybe Carlos or Carmina want to provide some additional visibility.

I will do some quick comments and for more details. I think it's very technical to do specifically in a one-on-one. But to be clear, first, the yields that we show on Page 18, these ones are the yields that are the input in our appraisal values. So these are the yields that are moving the value. This is the cap rate at the end of the 10-year DCF cash flow of the appraisers of the appraisals done by Cushman and CBRE. So this is the number to watch. The net initial yield is an output figure. There you have to be careful. First of all, in comparable terms that you cannot see here the yield expansion is in the same way it would not make sense any other different situation. But as we show in accordance with EPRA-base practice, the full operational portfolio and the equity of the full operational portfolio at each point in time especially when you are in a market with long-term contracts that has been a little bit longer void periods like Paris or like what so could be Germany or U.K., then as soon as you deliver a project, and we have delivered 2 big projects in Paris recently beyond Louvre, then you have a time of a year or 1.5 years where you have a void period where you have no cash flow. Therefore, it is really not really representative to look at the net initial yield and first, you should look at the topped-up net initial need. And from that on, you have to include that there is a significant reversion potential that's going to be collected across the coming months and years. And therefore, we have provided it's on Page 14. What would be the full reversionary yield on our portfolio. And you can see that we are at yields that are very similar to the cap rates of the valuation. So to say it in a way, our Paris office portfolio being the super prime end it's today at 4.25%, in terms of valuation yield. And this is the number to judge if it's high, it's low, how much can come in addition. And also, I think it's important you know that our Madrid portfolio is also top-notch. And you can see what are the valuation yields of our portfolio, and there are at the levels of close to 5%. You have just to look a little bit around at other valuations, and you will see if you can then have your own judgment from Madrid city portfolio at 4.74% and the Barcelona city portfolio at 5%, how much is there in addition to come and also in relative terms to other assets in the market.

Just a very quick follow-up, sorry for this, but it was very helpful already. I -- you said -- I understand it's a rent-free period, but you said it's a 1-year rent-free of the developments coming in. But you didn't give 12 months rent-free on Louvre Saint Honoré, for example? Or what is the rent-free you're giving on the recent developments you have delivered this year?

We give what is for the best type of assets that the market standard. If you look at a little bit into Paris statistics in the CBD of Paris, the incentive is between 12% and 15%. We are at the low end. When you go to secondary markets, you have then in other forms -- or markets like that, you have levels of 25% to 30%. You then put this in relation to the contract maturity and you have what is the void period. But I think all of these technical details we can then cover it in a specific call with you.

The next question comes from Ana Escalante from Morgan Stanley.

I would like you to ask about the potential reloading of your development pipeline that you've mentioned. I appreciate that you've said that these opportunities will drive value creation. But can you maybe give us more color on how you're planning to fund them. I mean, does this mean that you are comfortable with an LTV of around 47% to commit into further development opportunities? Or will you be looking to delever further the balance sheet before assuming further development risk, just wanted to understand what's going to be the funding of that pipeline?

Yes. So Ana, look, first of all, these developments are not projects that are happening this year. So they are, let's say, happening across the next few years. And in this context and following more or less what you were saying, no, we are relying on a vision of our balance sheet where our LTV is going to be lower than it is today. So we'll put in place the strategies that have to be the right ones to ensure that objective. And in fact, the sales program that we're executing in 2023, the sales program that we are executing in 2024, are part of an overall strategy of remaining with a strong balance sheet.

The next question comes from Fernando Abril from Alantra.

Can I ask couple of questions, please. First on your disposal target for 2024. I understand that the EUR 500 million already included that EUR 150 million already closed. My question is how confident are you in doing it? Are you in sort of advance talks with potential buyers? And whether you will concentrate that the last 2 years, you have concentrated the disposals in Spain. I don't know you have better prospects in Paris? Or is it still at need? And then second question, again, on the cap rates that you've posted on -- you have highlighted that there have been a couple of transactions in Paris in CBD already in 2024. My question is, I don't know if you can give us an idea of those transactions that the implied cap rate of those transactions? And how do they compare with your -- the one that you have just released at the 4.25%?

Yes. Thanks for your questions. Look, first of all, yes, on the disposal strategies, usually, we have a strategy in place that embraces different potential avenues because in the end, that's the right way to make things happen. In this respect, I think that in 2023, the framework for our strategy was the French -- the Spanish market was open liquid and assuming full pricing of the assets and the French market was nonexisting. For year [Technical Difficulty] market remains basically the same way. And in the French market, we have indications of the market reopening at least compared to 2023 and that allow us to put in place different strategies and to make the full goal of investment achievable. Regarding cap rates in France, well, it's difficult to be specific about where cap rate is because the market is in early stages of reopening, and we see different profiles of buyers. In the same way that in Spain, we said that the main driver was family offices investing in assets of limited amount in France as of today, we see two kinds of operations happening. One is the typical one that comes from an institutional investor that is looking at a specific cap rate for doing their investment. Another kind of a transaction that is happening is for buyers that are not institutional investors that are not real estate professionals that are buying assets based on other strategies and that are paying much lower yields. So -- and you've seen some of them happening according to market sources because, obviously, we don't have information on deals, transactions that don't involve ourselves. But according to market sources, this latter chapter in very competitive yields and some of the, let's say, more regular but not far away or not really different from the kind of implicit valuations that we have in our assets. So just to summarize and coming back to the point, I think that last year, the French market was not available, the Spanish one was, the year 2024, the Spanish market remains available and the French market is offering signs of reopening.

Okay. May I have a follow-up, please.

Sure. Of course.

Yes. Okay. Just with regards to Paris, again, so looking at the 3-year portfolio, you have just around 18 assets. Some of them are small, but some of them are very big. At an edge, you may consider if those low yield investors approach it to one of your big assets, may you consider to sell it or this is not on the table, right now.

Well, I don't know understood the question, that if you consider to selling...

Because of those big assets that...

Yes. Well, to be honest, the reopening of the market, the more, let's say, realistic or prudent approach is that, the more you are in the range of smaller tickets, the more feasible strategy is. So I think that the intrinsic value of super high trophy assets with super high ticket. This does not remain a likely scenario in the short term.

Your next question comes from Florent Laroche from ODDO BHF.

Thank you for this presentation. So actually, I would have two questions. My first question will be on the lease that could come maturity in 2024 and 2025 in Spain. So maybe could you please give us maybe some more color on that and maybe more specifically in Barcelona, where I understand that the leasing market is maybe a little bit more difficult. And my second question would be, again, on the valuation of the assets. Actually, so if I look at Slide 17, and if I look the like-for-like valuation in H2. I can say that in Paris, the like-for-like is minus 7%. And in Paris. So we have good positive rental effect. I think with a positive revision on [indiscernible]. And in Madrid and at the same time in Madrid and Barcelona we have flat release spread. And the like-for-like valuation for H2 is the same or lower. So I would like to understand how we can understand the consistency of these valuations.

Yes. Well, I would say that what has happened in the market in Spain and France in 2023, is that there's a different reality happening. So as you know, when we talk about valuations there are two different avenues that you can adopt to, one is looking at where in theory, the value of your assets should be based on where rents are and where apparently the yields and discount rates should be. And the other route is to look at actual transactions that are happening. So if you look at the first route, what has happened generally speaking across markets is that valuation have taken route, a more prudent route in terms of assessing where yields will be and where discount rates is and where rents are going to be. And because of that, we've seen valuations going down and implicit yields going up. And nothing was happening in France in terms of actual deals that could confirm and not confirm this view. In the case of Spain, what has happened is a little bit different. What has happened is that this, let's say, theoretical assumption of where the market is, in a way it was the same, but the different reality is that we've been delivering Colonial in particular, by the way, consistently one after the other, a number of transactions, many transactions at the end of the year, all of them at appraisal value and not a 2023 appraisal value but 2022 appraisal value. And therefore, valuations automatically have had to be more resilient because of this EBITDA. And that explains for our specific assets. I would -- for those who are in prime CBD locations that we can prove that have been disposed at appraisal values. This like-for-like has proved to be more resilient in Madrid or Barcelona than in Paris that is because of different market performance because of individual characteristics of each market. And that was the answer to your second question. I'm sorry, I forgot the first one. Carlos if you could step in, please.

On the maturity profile, you will find it in our narrative -- in our detailed narrative, you will see there that out of our total contract portfolio, we have 17% of the contracts maturing during 2024. As of today, we have already addressed and under control of 11%. The remaining 6% to be addressed, but later in the year, and you have to tactically approach this in the most intelligent way, are top-notch spaces. It does not mean that if the people go out there, this is negative. It sometimes can be even very positive. And we have that really super top space. Part of this is in Paris, in the middle of Paris, where we are experiencing a very strong progress on the super Prime brands. So we are very comfortable. We see this more as an opportunity than as a threat and a big part of this is already managed and under control. On the release spreads, obviously, in Spain, we had 3 years of high inflation. So the passing rents have gone up faster and are closer to the ERVs in a way, we are almost flat there. And therefore, you see this reflected in the release spread. On the other hand, I would like to insist that the super Prime continues to perform well. So what we're going to see going forward is that the rents will further grow and they will grow according to the ERV evolution. The Paris market is a long-term market. So we have to much more release spread to capture from a structural point of view because rents come from later points in time. And then also the [indiscernible] has been starting later and lower and it is now high. This, again, I would say it's a benefit of diversification. Companies in Spain cannot benefit not anymore from catching up release spread and just have to be in the prime and to experience rental growth. But as we are not only in Spain but also in Paris, we have a double impact. We have high release spreads to capture and moreover, rental growth. So this is what we can say about this.

The next question comes from Pierre-Emmanuel from Clouard (sic) [ Jefferies ].

Yes. It's Emmanuel Clouard from Jefferies. I have two questions, actually. My first one is on your debt metrics. So can you give us the level of your EBITDA interest coverage in 2023, please?

Well, sorry, I don't have here, but it's above 3x, so 3.5, something like that, be aware that, we have a very low cost of debt already secured, as I mentioned, and it's well above 3.5, I think was the last number. Yes.

All right? And it's according to the S&P calculation, the 3 plus x.

Yes, yes. Right. Yes.

The second one is on coming back on disposals. I understand that it's more complicated to sell assets above EUR 200 million today. But there is still liquidity for super, super Prime assets. So why are you not considering selling assets like Louvre Saint-Honoré, where the yield is highly diluting your FFO today. And I suspect that some luxury companies are still, let's say, willing to buy some assets like that.

Yes. To be specific, we are considering always different avenues. In other words, we don't exclude, in particular, any avenue. but there was a question on bigger tickets. And I think that it's less realistic or less likely, let's put it this way to, let's say, raise expectations on this front because transactions, I think that the market is not prepared for them yet. But to be specific, we don't have a narrow, let's say, scope for our capital allocation strategies and we just believe that the market in France is a reopening, but we must be, let's say, prudent in this process of reopening.

The next question comes from Adam Shapton from Green Street.

I hope you can hear me. Just two clarifications on pipeline. I think the question was asked earlier, but I didn't catch the answer. On scope, is that -- why doesn't that appear in your pipeline as a committed project, just thinking about committed CapEx for the next 2 years even before you reload the pipeline. That's question one. And then the second one is, are you able to give any guidance on what rents you're expecting to achieve on Mendez Alvaro, it's obviously very close. You say it's on track. You say yield on cost of 8%. So can you give us a sense of the rents you expect to designing that.

Yes. Look, on the first question about the scope of the pipeline I mentioned two projects now that are already public and have a committed figure attached to this, which is Mendez Alvaro and Rives de Seine in France. And then I added another one, which has IBM. IBM the current -- well, the former IBM headquarters, Santa Hortensia, in regarding this project, we are in the process of analysis of alternative strategies, and therefore, a specific, let's say, route is still not decided on this. And therefore, we still don't have a specific figure for this project and time line although it is likely that will happen next year. That's the reason we are not so specific. On the second question, which is regarding Mendez Alvaro and the yield, Carlos is going to explain it.

Well, you can see that we have updated the yield on cost on Mendez Alvaro office. It's 8% yield on total cost, I would like to underline, so acquisition cost plus CapEx. When you make lead on CapEx, it's double digit, like some other people also report in the market. And you can very easily calculate it's EUR 19 million of rents. What is the current assumption in the yield on cost. At this moment, we are receiving a lot of interest and we have the feeling that we're going to beat the current rent that is in our prudent underwriting. We are receiving -- and this is a very unique product, rents that are significantly above of the figure that we got here, but that in itself already delivers a yield on cost of 8% on total cost. So this is what we can so far -- say so far, we are having a lot of conversations. And as soon as we then have something specific, we will come back with the disclosure. But we are very positive that the product is really unique and is generating a lot of interest in the market.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions. Dear speakers, back to you.

Well. No, just to thank you all for your attention and participating in this event today. It's been a pleasure as always, and we are looking forward to seeing you soon again. Thank you, and have a good day. Bye-bye.