Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 29, 2026

New York Stock Exchange US Financials Banks earnings

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

A.B. Mendez

executive
#1

Thanks, Sherry. Phil Green, our Chairman and CEO, along with Dan Geddes, Group Executive Vice President and CFO, will lead this afternoon's conference call. Before handing things over to Phil and Dan, I should spend a moment on the safe harbor provisions. Certain remarks we make today will count as forward-looking statements under the definition given in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. It is our intent that such statements be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements found in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. For more detail on the risk factors tied to these forward-looking statements, please refer to the last page of text in this morning's earnings release. Should you need it, a copy of the release can be found on our website or obtained by calling the Investor Relations department at 210 to 220 to 5234. At this time, I'll hand the call over to Phil.

Phil Green

executive
#2

Thanks, A.B. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On today's call, we'll go over Cullen/Frost's results for the third quarter of 2026, and after that our Chief Financial Officer, Dan Geddes, will offer some additional comments and guidance updates before we open things up for your questions. In the third quarter of 2026, Cullen/Frost earned $178.5 million, which is up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share came in at $2.84 for the third quarter, a 6.4% increase over the $2.67 posted in last year's third quarter. Return on average assets came to 1.31% in the third quarter, and return on average common equity was 16.16%, compared with 1.32% and 16.72%, respectively, in the third quarter of last year. Average deposits for the third quarter totaled $43.6 billion, up 3.6% from the prior year, while average loans climbed to $23.4 billion, a 9% rise over last year. Our consumer bank keeps producing strong results, rooted in a steady emphasis on the customer experience and in our investments in organic expansion, products, and technology. Consumer loans finished the quarter at $4.66 billion, up $736 million, or 18.7%, year-over-year. Consumer real estate lending remains the key driver behind this exceptional growth, and I'm pleased to report that, as of today, our mortgage portfolio has passed $1 billion. Mortgage lending also continues to be a significant opportunity for building wider relationships. Since the program started, 46% of mortgage customers were new to Frost, and 37% of those new customers have gone on to open additional products. Consumer deposits likewise grew strongly in a market that remains highly competitive. Consumer deposits rose $297 million during the third quarter, mainly on higher money market deposit balances. That growth would not be possible without the dedicated work of our sales, product, marketing, and technology teams and, naturally, without the world-class customer experiences our frontline bankers deliver every day at every Frost branch across the state. Non-interest income continued its strong growth, powered by our consistently best-in-class customer growth. Consumer non-interest income rose $2.6 million, or 9.4%, versus the same period a year earlier. Since we launched our expansion program in late 2018, consumer checking accounts are up 52%. Our commercial line of business is posting impressive growth as well. Our 90-day weighted loan pipeline hit an all-time high of $2.5 billion in the third quarter, 16% above what had been the previous record set in the second quarter. Opportunities generated by our legacy financial centers rose 14% in the third quarter, while those generated by our expansion locations were up 37%. Turning to new loan commitments booked, the third quarter came in 4% above a very strong second quarter, which puts year-to-date commitments up 19%. Commitments for what we call core loans — those under $10 million — reached a record $1.2 billion in the third quarter. Once again, we added more than 1,000 new relationships in the third quarter. Expansion remains a major catalyst for commercial relationships, representing 21% of new commercial relationships this quarter. Opportunities arising from other banks' mergers and acquisitions — which we refer to as market disruption — keep providing a robust source of new relationships for us. So far this year, new relationships stemming from market disruption have risen 73% versus the same period a year earlier. By historical standards, our overall credit quality is still good. Total problem loans — defined as those with a risk grade of 10 or worse — came to $902 million at the close of the third quarter, versus $917 million in the prior quarter and $828 million a year ago. Non-performing assets stood at $67 million at the end of the third quarter, compared with $114 million in the second quarter and $47 million a year ago. That quarter-end non-performing asset number equals just 28 basis points of period-end loans and 12 basis points of total assets. The drop in non-performers is largely tied to one large multifamily commercial real estate loan discussed on last quarter's call, which was paid off in full through an anticipated property sale during the third quarter. Net charge-offs in the third quarter were $8.4 million, versus $9.5 million the prior quarter and $6.6 million a year ago. Annualized net charge-offs for the third quarter equal only 14 basis points of average loans. On our previous conference call, I noted my optimism regarding our work to grow our wealth management and insurance brokerage business. Within wealth management, managed accounts rose by more than 5% year-over-year; at our Frost Insurance Agency, commercial customers grew by more than 10% year-over-year. I take pride in how these teams have responded to the changes we've implemented in those areas, especially given the increasingly competitive environment in which they operate. Our ongoing efforts and investments in these areas will help shape future results. Throughout our company, our people keep serving customers and shareholders with dedication to integrity, caring, and excellence. We have the best bankers in the best markets, and that is what will keep Frost distinct. With that, I'll hand it over to Dan for some further insights.

Dan Geddes

executive
#3

Thank you, Phil. I'd like to begin with some perspective on the strategy behind our branch expansion and the growth those investments are producing. In the third quarter, the branch expansion contributed $0.22, or 8.4%, of EPS accretion, and $0.51 year-to-date, or 6.6% of EPS accretion. We remain pleased with the volumes we've been able to achieve. Year over year, average loans were up 40% and now make up 13.9% of total loans, versus 10.8% a year ago, and they accounted for 48% of the growth. Deposits rose 23% and now comprise 9.1% of deposits compared with 7.6% in the same period last year, contributing 49% of the growth. The expansion branches have now reached $3.25 billion in loans and $4 billion in deposits. Since our last call, we opened one new location in the Dallas region, and we have four openings planned by year-end, which brings the total for the year to 12 locations; now turning to the company's third quarter financial performance. On net interest margin, our NIM percentage came in at 3.78% for the quarter, three basis points higher than the 3.75% reported last quarter. Net interest margin benefited from a volume mix shift in earning assets, moving from lower-yielding balances held at the Fed into loans and investment securities. Those gains were partly offset by higher volumes of both interest-bearing deposits and repos. Turning to our investment portfolio, total investments averaged $21.2 billion in the third quarter, an increase of $592 million from the prior quarter. Purchases during the quarter came to $1.6 billion, made up of $625 million of agency MBS securities yielding 5.69%, $494 million of Treasuries yielding 4.21%, and $481 million of municipals yielding 5.89% on a tax-equivalent basis. Maturities in the quarter included $1 billion of Treasuries at an average yield of 2.88%, $257 million of municipals at an average tax-equivalent yield of 4.45%, and $368 million of agency MBS paydowns. With the recent rise in rates, the net unrealized loss on the available-for-sale portfolio grew to $2 billion at quarter-end, versus the $1.1 billion reported at the end of the prior quarter. The tax-equivalent yield on the total investment portfolio for the quarter was 4.09%, an increase of 13 basis points from the previous quarter. The taxable portfolio averaged $14.1 billion, up $496 million from the prior quarter, with a yield of 3.68%, 17 basis points higher than 3.51% in the prior quarter. Our tax-exempt municipal portfolio averaged $7.2 billion, unchanged from the prior quarter, with a taxable-equivalent yield of 4.93%, up six basis points from the prior quarter. At the close of the third quarter, roughly 70% of the municipal portfolio was pre-refunded or PSF-insured. The duration of the investment portfolio stood at 5 years at quarter-end, up from 4.9 years at the end of the prior quarter. Turning to funding sources, on a linked-quarter basis, average total deposits of $43.6 billion rose $950 million from the previous quarter. Interest-bearing deposits rose by roughly 65%, while non-interest-bearing accounts accounted for 35% of the increase. October is off to a strong start, and deposit momentum has carried into the month, with average deposits reaching $44.4 billion. For the third quarter, interest-bearing deposit costs came in at 1.73%, which is 12 basis points higher than the 1.61% recorded in the second quarter. Customer repos averaged $4.9 billion during the third quarter, an increase of $471 million over the second quarter. Customer repo costs for the quarter were 2.67%, two basis points above the second quarter. Turning to non-interest income and expenses, I'd like to flag a few items that affected the linked-quarter results. On the non-interest income side, other income rose by $9.1 million, a figure that includes $7.6 million of gains from selling two legacy motor bank locations plus a $541,000 gain on the sale of certain loans held for sale. Partly offsetting those gains were $7.5 million of losses on securities sales, in which we sold $17 million of Treasuries yielding 2.15% and $18.6 million of municipals yielding 1.92%. In light of year-to-date actual performance, we recorded an additional $4.7 million of incentive compensation expense accruals this quarter. On top of that, marketing and advertising increased by $3.3 million, mainly because of extra targeted media spend during the quarter. As for our guidance for full year 2026, the current outlook incorporates one 25 basis point hike to the Fed funds rate in December. Net interest income growth for the full year is expected to land in the 5% to 5.5% range. That is an increase from our earlier guidance range of 4.75% to 5.25%; on net interest margin, we still anticipate an improvement of roughly 10 to 13 basis points relative to our full year 2025 net interest margin of 3.66%, unchanged from the guidance we gave a quarter ago. Full year average loan growth should come in between 8% and 8.5%. That raises the prior guidance of 7% to 8%. On deposits, full year average growth is expected to be in the 2% to 3% range, the same as prior guidance. Based on current projections, non-interest income growth should be 8.5% to 9%, up from the earlier guidance range of 7.5% to 8.5%. For non-interest expense, we expect growth in the 5% range year-over-year. That sits at the upper end of the prior guidance of 4.5% to 5%, and it reflects the additional incentive accruals and advertising expense mentioned earlier. On net charge-offs, full year 2026 should be in the range of 15 to 20 basis points of average loans, consistent with prior quarter guidance. Our effective tax rate expectation for full year 2026 falls in the range of 15.5% to 16%, consistent with the prior quarter. On the buyback front, let me note that in Q3 we spent $15 million under our $300 million authorized repurchase program, acquiring roughly 93,000 shares, which brings our repurchase total for the year to $175 million and 1.26 million shares; with that said, I'll hand the call back to Phil for questions.

Phil Green

executive
#4

Thank you, Dan. We'll open the call up for questions now.

Will Jones

analyst
#5

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, guys.

Phil Green

executive
#6

Hey, Will.

Dan Geddes

executive
#7

Hello, Will.

Will Jones

analyst
#8

Hello, I want to start off by talking about loan growth. Obviously, it was a really strong result this quarter. Phil, might you walk us through how that growth broke down between commercial and consumer? It doesn't appear that Frost is really facing the same payoff headwinds that some others perhaps are. So I guess, would that be a fair statement? If you could offer a bit of commentary on the growth you saw this quarter, that would be great. Thank you.

Phil Green

executive
#9

All right. I think I'll take that at a broad level. We've just gotten feedback from all of our relationship managers as we prepare for our board meetings and, to some extent, this call. I've visited branches a great deal. At this point, I've set foot in just about every market we serve. The thing that stands out to me is how resilient activity and loan growth have proven throughout the year, even in the face of rising rates. When we sit down with our teams, they describe fierce competitive pressure we're up against. For the strongest customers, competition is intense — both for them and for prospects like them. My sense is that smaller banks are pushing harder on structure, often with terms you wouldn't normally consider or encounter. As our people have explained to me, there's plenty of business available, which lets us win enough to deliver the growth figures we've reported; we've already discussed how many disruption relationships we've recorded. The 73% increase represents a jump from roughly 150 new relationships last year to more than 250 this year. That contributes somewhat. On the consumer side, our mortgage product has performed so well and continues to gain recognition as a high-value offering in the market. Honestly, Will, the details are quite granular, and what we're observing is simply very typical. Our team is putting in hard work, our brand is strong, and there's disruption in the marketplace. Another point worth noting: I've occasionally heard that when rates began climbing, some people worried about missing out and didn't want to watch rates rise further, so they grabbed the rate available in the market at that moment. I believe some of that has been happening too. Finally, we've told our staff to stay competitive, we don't want to do anything foolish, and there are structural things you don't want to do. On these calls throughout the year, we've mentioned repeatedly that when it comes to funding, we're a low-cost producer. A strong relationship built on high character—a promising prospect we've pursued—shouldn't be sacrificed over a handful of basis points. Competing on price is something we're ready to do, and that's what we've been doing. It comes down to many factors rather than any single one. From where I sit, it's worked out very well, wouldn't you agree?

Dan Geddes

executive
#10

Will, I’ll just sort of add what I’m seeing, and it’s broad-based. If you look at our growth on a linked-quarter basis, roughly 40% of it is what I’d call C&I-related — both a C&I loan and also what we secure with real estate, which we call an owner-occupied real estate loan. That’s about 40%. Another 40% is kind of investor commercial real estate. Then really the majority of the other 20% is, as Phil mentioned, our consumer real estate, our one-to-four family mortgage product. I think Phil mentioned the 1,000 new commercial relationships; 40% — around, I think it’s around 42% — of our loan growth is attributed to new customers that we’ve brought on in the last year.

Phil Green

executive
#11

Dan, my sense is we've crossed 1,000 relationships for, what, six consecutive quarters now?

Dan Geddes

executive
#12

We've now had six quarters in a row. Like Phil said, there's been a pickup. Normally, half of our new relationships would come from the too-big-to-fail banks, with the remaining half coming from the other regional community banks we compete against. These days, that figure looks more like 40% from the too-big-to-fail institutions, and what closes that gap is roughly 10% from the banks we refer to as market disruption banks. As he noted, it's up almost 75% year-over-year. You've seen a rise in new relationships, and honestly I find it encouraging, since that cohort is heavily C&I-related when we look at what we're winning. These are what we'd describe as core C&I relationships in the communities we serve.

Phil Green

executive
#13

You might also mention, Dan, the percentage win rate of that business.

Dan Geddes

executive
#14

Usually, looking back—and these are reports I've reviewed across more than 20 years in my career—for a prospect, measured in dollar terms, we'd generally capture roughly one-third of those deals by dollar value; right now we're sitting at about 78% of won opportunities involving banks that are in the middle of mergers and acquisitions; that campaign has worked extremely well, and based on my earlier experience as a banker in the Houston market for 20 years, it carries a long tail. It generally runs for a minimum of a two-year stretch, because I think when a business owner or a consumer has their bank acquired, some individuals depart right away. Others might stay around to observe how the new organization operates and could become frustrated within six months, a year, two years; it can line up with a credit renewal if the credit culture has shifted; it's still early, but the results please us.

Will Jones

analyst
#15

That’s excellent. Plenty of useful detail from the two of you—thank you. Dan, perhaps one for you on the deposit cost outlook. I remember during the last cycle, when rates rose, Frost moved early on deposit costs. Not as a defensive step, but simply because you believed it was the right thing for the customer. Will the same approach apply here if we do get a few rate hikes? Could you help us with what you expect for deposit costs and perhaps what betas will look like this cycle?

Dan Geddes

executive
#16

Yes. I’ll share roughly what we expect for loan and deposit beta. Loans would be about 80%; then on an interest-bearing basis, we’d expect perhaps a similar level. On an overall deposit basis, it’ll be roughly 50%, 55% beta. You should see us gain margin if rates rise into 2027.

Will Jones

analyst
#17

All right. That's wonderful. Thanks a lot, everyone. I appreciate it.

Phil Green

executive
#18

Thanks.

Jared Shaw

analyst
#19

Thank you. Good afternoon. I suppose I'll begin with expenses. You mentioned the plan for another four branches, which would take us to 12 for this year. Does that remain a reasonable annual figure in your view when you consider branch growth going forward? And along with that, should we still anticipate positive operating leverage?

Dan Geddes

executive
#20

Regarding expansion, as I said, we expect to open 12 this year. As we look toward '27, we have, I believe, 14 planned. That's ticking up somewhat. I'd characterize it as 12 to 15 in the near term. Our branch growth has simply been quite successful, and I don't anticipate any slowdown from us; in fact, over time I'd lean toward seeing us open more than the 12 to 15. Now for your second question, yes, our budget for '27 still needs to be completed. I'd note that, based on the guidance I just provided for '26, and specifically for '26, you're looking at 50 to 75 basis points of operating leverage. For next year, we'd be hoping for positive operating leverage, perhaps in that same vicinity or range. As we've said previously, wealth management is a business where we made some leadership changes this year and late last year, and we've brought in some really strong leaders, but we'll need some strong producers or wealth advisors coming in during '27 and '28. I believe you'll see us investing in our wealth management business in '27.

Jared Shaw

analyst
#21

Okay, all right, thank you. I suppose regarding fee income, the guidance for 4Q suggests something like continued solid expansion. Should we expect that to potentially begin speeding up once the planned wealth management hires gain traction?

Dan Geddes

executive
#22

Yes, and let me note that the fourth quarter is affected by a put we established for some Treasury bill bonds we intend to buy in January; those are $250 million each for three-year, four-year, and five-year that we chose to exercise a put on, and we have roughly $5.5 million of benefit to non-interest income in the fourth quarter. That will assist that fourth quarter growth figure.

Jared Shaw

analyst
#23

Thank you.

Dan Geddes

executive
#24

Regarding your question about wealth management, sure — I'd say many things will play into next year. Honestly, it's simply too soon to say. There's a build-up as newly hired advisors get up to speed on production. In my view, a usual ramp period could run 12 to 18 months before that producer truly repays your investment. My sense is this will be a long-term commitment.

Ebrahim Poonawala

analyst
#25

Hi there, good afternoon. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way. When we consider branch expansion—or at least when I consider it—I really do believe that once you get that customer primacy, deposit growth should follow. Your growth in non-interest-bearing deposits has been pretty robust, this quarter included. Just tell us, as we look ahead over the next year or two, do you expect loan growth to outpace deposit growth? Is that because it's too competitive, and given how your balance sheet is made up, you don't have to be overly aggressive in chasing rate-sensitive deposits?

Dan Geddes

executive
#26

I'd say that, at present, with where interest rates sit, individuals and corporate controllers still have an opportunity to go after yield. For the industry as a whole, deposit growth has trailed loan growth; I think we're certainly punching above our weight in both of those categories. For the near term, you're probably right that we have the capacity to go acquire relationships through that loan growth. We're not out there growing our loan book simply for the sake of growing it. I mentioned that owner-occupied category. Those loans are specifically designed as relationship loans. They aren't transactional real estate loans. Over time, I think we've demonstrated the ability to grow deposits at a higher rate in a lower interest rate environment. I think that's the backdrop, Ebrahim—it's simply the interest rate environment that would hinder deposit growth.

Ebrahim Poonawala

analyst
#27

Understood. I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up. If I caught it right, Phil, in the remarks you prepared, roughly 50% of mortgage customers are new to Frost, and I believe you said 1/3 of them added a second product?

Phil Green

executive
#28

Nearly 50%.

Ebrahim Poonawala

analyst
#29

Nearly 50%. My question, I suppose, was about the historical view: we saw the mortgage product as commoditized, sensitive to rates, and shifting into the securitized market. Based on what you've observed over the past 12 to 24 months, are you seeing the mortgage product reliably turn into a fairly sticky tool for acquiring clients? It sounds like that's happening with at least 50% of customers.

Phil Green

executive
#30

Yes, it is. I said nearly 50%. Actually it's almost 40%, but that's still a genuinely strong figure in terms of the secondary products they're adding. Ebrahim, you're correct. That's how we see it. I might be recalling when they've discussed this previously, but we had a rule here when we began offering this product that no one was allowed to say we were entering the mortgage business. In fact, if you said it, you owed $5 to whoever — it cost me $60 in a single meeting. I made a mistake and said it. What we wanted was to offer a mortgage product, all right, because we had 4 of the 5 consumer real estate products, but mortgage was missing. We kept getting requests to have it. We were after a product with strong service levels—one we handle ourselves—and that ties into our broader customer support operations, mobile app included. Everything sits there in a seamless, polished format, delivering an excellent experience throughout. Actually, a person mentioned to me just last week—I'll leave the bank unnamed, though it was too big to fail—that they'd completed a mortgage in our Austin market. Their words were, "It hurts me to admit it, but my experience was fantastic." What matters is offering something that genuinely deepens the relationship with our customers. Since we're the ones servicing them, we retain quite a bit of latitude on pricing and similar decisions. One more factor pushing us in this direction, I'd say, is the fantastic distribution network we're constructing across Texas, which is an incredibly strong economic setting, and it makes perfect sense to have that product flowing through that distribution system. All of those elements came together. There's one more point I want to raise, Ebrahim, and it's a different approach, but we have no sales staff, no commissioned reps out in the field. What we have are advisers who assist people in getting into homes, right, and navigating the loan process. Everything of that nature — the commission side, asset sales, all of it — belonged to what you might call the business we used to be in. That isn't what we do now. What we provide is a genuinely high-quality service offering that customers are truly enjoying, and we're achieving real success with it. That's how we look at it. I hope that addresses your question.

Ebrahim Poonawala

analyst
#31

No, that's useful. Could I just squeeze in a brief follow-up on Dan's earlier point about potentially exceeding 12 to 15 branches annually — what's the bottleneck there? A Midwest bank is expanding into Texas, 150 branches across the next three years. I'd assume you've got both the craft and the science of branch openings down. Is the constraint capital, expenses, or recruiting the right bankers — the reason that 12 to 15 couldn't double?

Phil Green

executive
#32

Every one of those. I believe that, if we chose to, we could take that 15 higher; in a way, we've been stockpiling some of our future locations because we knew others would be entering these markets, and I didn't want us to fall behind the curve the way we did 20 years ago, when Wachovia tried to build an organic network in Texas before they failed. They snapped up all the great sites, and it was impossible to get a site if you wanted a bank site; a couple of years ago, we started assembling sites in communities that weren't quite ready for it, but we thought would be ready for it in a couple of years. I'm pretty comfortable with where our warehouse stands. Getting the right personnel in place matters a great deal, since a strong site and a strong building alone aren't enough. Putting up a hundred branches wouldn't accomplish anything by itself. Someone capable has to be in charge, and you need solid processes that tie into your other business lines, plus a coordinated strategy for building out a trade area — that's the whole purpose behind these branches. It doesn't happen overnight. Is scaling possible? Sure. But I doubt we'd execute it as effectively as we are today. Will we eventually go beyond fifteen? Naturally we will, since the arithmetic means that for a steady percentage applied to a base that keeps expanding, the dollar figure must rise. At present, offering you an indication of roughly 15, or about 12 to 15 annually, strikes me as a solid guide; we'll inform you should we make a decision, and you'll notice it if we choose to increase it.

Dan Geddes

executive
#33

One more point I'd make: at the outset, I was briefing the management team in Houston, and after that we expanded to Dallas. From Dallas we went to Houston, and then we pushed into Austin. At this point we truly have it operating across the state, where we're briefing the management team for every one of our major regions. What that means, I believe, is that our scope is no longer just a single region or a couple of regions. It's genuinely about seeking out the strongest people across the entire state.

Ebrahim Poonawala

analyst
#34

Got it. Thank you.

Phil Green

executive
#35

Thank you.

Peter Winter

analyst
#36

Thank you. Good afternoon. I'd like to start with expenses. Given the revised guidance, costs are rising 5% this year compared with roughly 10% in each of the two preceding years. Would you say mid-single digit is a solid pace of expense growth for next year? And second, do you see chances to perhaps use AI to boost productivity and efficiency, and possibly self-fund a portion of these investments to support the expense growth rate?

Dan Geddes

executive
#37

Peter, on the mid-single digits, for next year, as I said, we'll be making some investments in wealth management. My expectation is that it comes in a bit above the exact midpoint, though not returning to the high-single digits. That's simply my expectation absent having worked through the full budgeting process. I do know we will be investing there. As for your AI question, at some point I believe we will see AI projects funding themselves. I wouldn't claim we're at that stage now. My hope is that in the near future that becomes true, so that you can capture efficiencies and see them reflected in your expense growth.

Peter Winter

analyst
#38

Understood. Turning to credit, it's encouraging to see non-performing assets come down thanks to that multifamily loan being resolved. Is there any portfolio you're monitoring with extra attention, particularly now that rates are climbing?

Phil Green

executive
#39

Peter, my sense is they're still tied to commercial real estate. As we've mentioned previously, a handful of those older vintage multifamily projects remain. I believe we hold four of them, each with its own maturity date. I think that's this year?

Dan Geddes

executive
#40

In the current year.

Phil Green

executive
#41

My belief is that one of those falls in this year. Two could land in '27, and one in '28. It's the same refrain we've been repeating for the past two years, correct? Rents come in lower, leasing up is tougher, concessions are greater, and expenses run higher. What you truly must depend on is how the sponsor performs, whether they raise the equity required to right-size it or pursue the process of selling the property, and perhaps they secure bridge financing. Alternatively, the market may improve enough that they can satisfy the debt coverage ratios they need and similar requirements. That is what's occurring across all those projects, to varying degrees. None of them worries me at all. In my view, the sponsors we have are solid, and I genuinely believe the underwriting we've completed essentially speaks for itself. Since, if you examine that property that was sold, they basically sold it for the amount of our loan. We underwrote it at, I'm not certain, somewhere between 55% and 60%. To me, that demonstrates that the underwriting standards applied at the time proved adequate to handle a highly unfavorable situation, and that is among the things giving me confidence as we review the remaining deals. Interest rates have an impact, so we'll keep watching those as we go forward. That's the one I'd say we monitor most closely.

Dan Geddes

executive
#42

Peter, on anything that's rate-sensitive, I'd say homebuilders are experiencing margin strain whenever they use interest rate incentives to help people purchase their homes. In homebuilding, we have roughly $290 million in that category, comprising loans to homebuilders. That's not a large portion of our portfolio, but we're keeping an eye on it. Consumers have performed quite well. On the consumer side, our charge-offs came in at 25 basis points, and our past-dues were below 1%, and that's a favorable indicator of consumer health and of what we're observing.

Peter Winter

analyst
#43

Understood. That is genuinely useful. Thanks to both of you.

Ryan Kenny

analyst
#44

Hello, good afternoon. I appreciate you taking my questions. I have one regarding growth in non-interest-bearing deposits. My guess is that a portion of it stems from the treasury management investments you have made fairly steadily over the years, along with your capacity to win commercial operating accounts. Is that among the drivers of that growth, or does it come more from the consumer side?

Dan Geddes

executive
#45

At the moment, we are seeing it in what we refer to as DDA, which is exactly what you brought up, sort of the commercial side where, yes, I believe our investment in the treasury platform plus the customer service our clients get from our bankers and their teams is genuinely what distinguishes us. Frequently, it comes down to how easy it is to do business. That is an area where we score quite highly when Greenwich Associates evaluates us. We have the sales force in terms of the people, and that is matched with truly excellent technology and, I would say, sort of the back-of-the-house customer service. Whenever someone requires assistance 24/7, they are able to call and reach a live person. I believe all of those elements contribute to our capacity to grow those core DDA accounts. I believe it ties back to our branch expansion, as we enter communities and pursue both consumers and commercial businesses in the markets we are moving into. We do not open a branch merely expecting retail balances and offering either really out-of-market CDs or some kind of teaser to bring people over. Instead, we provide a square deal, and we provide outstanding customer service matched with world-class technology.

Ryan Kenny

analyst
#46

Do you get the sense that competition in treasury management is heating up as new players come into Texas and as technology keeps changing? Could you share any figures on what share of commercial clients have a treasury management relationship with you?

Dan Geddes

executive
#47

That's not something I have in front of me right now, but we can pull it and send it over to you. On the competition point, what I'd say is that I don't believe it's anything different from what we've dealt with in the past. It's definitely a competitive environment out there, but often for the commercial side, it's one piece of an overall package. It isn't simply, "Hey, I've got the best technology," or "Here's something you might find useful in your business." It's a component of the entire relationship. It might be combined with a line of credit, it might be combined with an equipment loan, it doesn't stand alone. It's about who you're going to be working with. That, I think, is truly where we stand out — our people in the field.

Ryan Kenny

analyst
#48

Thank you.

Dan Geddes

executive
#49

Hey, Janet.

Phil Green

executive
#50

Janet.

Janet Lee

analyst
#51

Oh, my apologies. Hey there. Are you able to hear me?

Phil Green

executive
#52

Hi.

Phil Green

executive
#53

Yes, Janet.

Janet Lee

analyst
#54

Hello. Hi. Sorry about that. I just want to be sure I'm reading your 2026 NII guidance the right way. If you take roughly the midpoint of your average loans, deposits, and NIM, then add loan beta at 80% and deposit beta at 50% to 55%, it's difficult to stay below your 5% to 5.5% NII growth for 2026. I'm just wondering whether there was any front-loaded benefit from loan yields in the third quarter, or whether something is missing?

Dan Geddes

executive
#55

There isn't anything I'd point to that we're, necessarily holding back. That single reduction—excuse me, that single increase—was factored into the December projections, so 2026 won't see much advantage from it. The real payoff would land more in 2027. I believe volumes will be the deciding factor. Should we manage to hit greater loan volumes—what we're—I just think that if greater volumes and assets with higher yields can be reached, then perhaps there's some potential gain on that front.

Phil Green

executive
#56

Hey Dan, here's a bit of inside baseball, and I'm going out on a limb here, but given that credit which got paid off, I'm aware that accrued interest sometimes comes into play and

Dan Geddes

executive
#57

During Q3, we saw a nonaccrual loan get repaid, and if I recall correctly, that gave us roughly a $3 million boost in the third quarter, which provided support to the NIM for that quarter.

Janet Lee

analyst
#58

All right, understood. To go back to what you said about the interest-bearing deposit beta, I think the rise in interest-bearing deposit costs during the third quarter came from the pricing moves you made in June on a sizable share of your money market balances. In effect, you're getting out ahead of the September hike. Are there comparable moves lined up? What should we expect for the size of the pricing increase on your deposits?

Dan Geddes

executive
#59

Let me touch on that — last quarter we said we were raising our money market rates in those consumer tiers below $1 million and above $250,000. I'll just walk you through how things have gone so far: we saw those tiers lose balances in the second quarter, roughly 3% in those tiers on the consumer side. We actually managed to see a small uptick, I'd say about 1%, but more significantly, we largely stopped the outflow of balances from those tiers. The thinking behind that strategy was to capture a bigger share of the wallet of this consumer we're bringing in, who was much younger. It was the Gen Y and Gen Z customer we talked about. I think we've been happy with that program. When I look ahead into the fourth quarter and try to gauge, okay, what does our cost on interest-bearing deposits look like going into the fourth quarter with those changes? I think, with the December rate hike, right now we're looking at, gosh, I'd say deposit costs, total interest-bearing, rising about 10 basis points from 1 170. There will be an effect on the interest-bearing side.

Janet Lee

analyst
#60

All right.

Dan Geddes

executive
#61

The move would be from 1.73% up to roughly 1.87%, which is about 12 to 15 basis points.

Janet Lee

analyst
#62

Okay. Can you give me the spot NIM?

Dan Geddes

executive
#63

I'll follow up with you on that.

Janet Lee

analyst
#64

All right, thank you.

Dan Geddes

executive
#65

I wanted to respond to one question — I believe someone just asked about commercial customers on Treasury — and roughly 7% of our commercial customers are on our Treasury platform.

Janet Lee

analyst
#66

Thanks.

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#67

Hi there, good afternoon — Gerard Sweeney here, filling in for John. I just have a single question about the buybacks.

Phil Green

executive
#68

Hi, Gerard.

Dan Geddes

executive
#69

Hi, Gerard.

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#70

Regarding the buybacks, they decelerated this quarter compared with recent ones. What portion of that came from the securities repositioning you did during the quarter, versus the broader higher rate environment, or even where the stock was trading during the quarter? And going forward, how does your view compare with that $70 million to $90 million quarterly cadence you had over roughly the past year?

Dan Geddes

executive
#71

Gerard, it had more to do with the fact that we'd talked about maintaining a steady approach to buybacks. Part of it is simply that we're in the market. Then I'd say the gap between what we did in earlier quarters and the $15 million we did in the third quarter was really just the market; we were watching how our stock traded and how it stood relative to the index. And then also just wanting to keep some powder dry in case a macro event came along that we could use the balance for.

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#72

Understood. Thanks. As for what this means going forward, is there anything else to consider beyond where the stock is trading, as you mentioned?

Dan Geddes

executive
#73

Sorry, could you say that again?

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#74

Regarding what this means going forward, and returning to that more normal rhythm you mentioned — the steadier pace?

Dan Geddes

executive
#75

Well, I'd say we'll essentially take something like a three-part method: keep one piece steady, hold another that we believe we can deploy tactically over the quarter. And then, if you like, picture a third, a third, and a third — though that last third we'd simply set aside to some degree. If we close out the year between $190 million and $200 million, we'd feel good, and I think we'd be pleased with that.

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#76

Thank you very much. Then just one quick question about expenses. With branch openings continuing and investment in wealth, if revenue growth decelerates somewhat, do you believe you have the levers to still deliver positive operating leverage in '27?

Dan Geddes

executive
#77

I think there's an opportunity, yes. We'll need to make sure we've truly examined the investments we want to make from a technology standpoint — we've talked about branch expansion and then wealth management. What I do think is that depending on how many rate hikes we see in the forward curve, there's an opportunity for positive operating leverage similar to what we were anticipating for '26.

Gerard Sweeney

analyst
#78

Okay, that's great. Many thanks.

Casey Haire

analyst
#79

Thanks a lot. Good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to revisit the beta guidance of 50% to 55%; that figure is somewhat above what you showed us in the prior cycle. Is that still the case — does each 25 bip hike still translate to $2 million of NII per month, or does that higher beta reduce it somewhat?

Dan Geddes

executive
#80

It comes in slightly under that, but we're expecting roughly $1.5 to $1.7 million.

Casey Haire

analyst
#81

Okay. All right, so let me return to the loan-to-deposit ratio topic. Right now it sits at 55 — does a cap exist? There's plenty of room for you to push it up. I'm simply curious whether there's a point beyond which you wouldn't want it to go or cross.

Phil Green

executive
#82

I believe we're far from the peak we reached before. That was, wow, when did it happen? It was, I think, roughly around the Great Financial Crisis period. We might have hit 80% during a single month; even that remains well under our peers. That's a zone that starts to influence your thinking regarding how you obtain funding and what you're prepared to do in order to back further growth. My answer, I'd say, is that no specific figure exists in my mind. What we'd like directionally, over time, is steadiness in how much loan growth we produce relative to how much deposit growth we produce. Over a long-term horizon, we believe roughly the mid-to-high single digits for each of those would be ideal across the truly long stretch. That's what I would want to see. I enjoy running with a lower loan-to-deposit ratio since it provides optionality regarding what you do with your balance sheet. The genuine benefit and worth of any banking organization lies in the deposit franchise. It truly isn't in the asset franchise. One thing that springs to mind: I looked back through history, and I think the furthest I could reach was around 90 years ago. If you examine our company's compound annual growth rate across that 90-year span in terms of absolute size, which would imply deposit growth, it came to 8.85% over those 90 years. I think across the long run, we've shown the capacity to keep deposits and loans in balance, and I'd hope that going forward over the long term, we'd witness the same.

Casey Haire

analyst
#83

Understood. Alright, just one final question. That bond book restructuring — did it happen late in the quarter? And any help you can offer on where the bond book yield lands in the fourth quarter? From what you said, it sounds like those were securities with very low yields that you sold.

Dan Geddes

executive
#84

Yes. My sense is those sales, with the loss, took place at the end of the third quarter. As for your second question, which was basically about where we expect our bond portfolio to sit in the fourth quarter — overall, I'd say you should look at roughly 4.15% to 4.20%, in that ballpark. On a tax-equivalent basis.

Casey Haire

analyst
#85

Thanks.

Michael Rose

analyst
#86

Hi there, good afternoon, and I appreciate you taking my questions. I'd like to circle back to what Ebrahim raised regarding branch expansion. Phil, I believe you mentioned that close to half of the additional loan and deposit growth is coming from those branches. Since you began these expansions roughly 10 years ago, has the opportunity, along with the size and profitability of these branches, changed over time? I imagine you've picked up quite a bit from what you did in the early days with Dallas and Houston 1.0. It looks like this keeps being a genuinely strong chance for you folks to generate growth and, in the end, profitability. If you could just speak to, sort of, how the branch buildout has evolved through the year, breakeven, deposit size, any kind of specifics, because it looks fairly compelling right now, especially with some of the disruption we're seeing in Texas markets around M&A.

Dan Geddes

executive
#87

This is Dan. I'll take that one, and then let Phil cover anything I miss. When we launched the Houston expansion, it was really focused on commercial lending first, and then roughly a 50/50 deposit opportunity. That plan was carried out, and it worked out very well. When we moved into the Dallas expansion, we noticed consumer loans there were growing more quickly than commercial loans. That gave us a chance to step back and conclude that this might not be our usual Frost approach of seeking a strong commercial and small business market — instead, we could enter some consumer markets. We already have one in the San Antonio area that has been a huge success, and it was entirely a rooftop play; it performs very well on the commercial side, but the consumer side has performed extremely well. That showed us it doesn’t need to be an either-or situation. Everything can be part of it. We returned and completed a 2.0 in Houston; that really positioned us well for the Austin market, since when you consider Austin’s dynamics, it will be somewhat more consumer-focused. With what is now, I believe, 17 years of J.D. Regarding consumer banking accolades, we believe this can develop into an excellent customer experience and expand our consumer deposits through our new—let me make sure I have my $5 bill—and I refer to our mortgage product, not entering the mortgage industry, since with our mortgage offering, you have witnessed that becoming a factor already given the loan growth we've achieved in mortgage operations. In my view, these elements all work together, and I was reviewing some economic figures from an economist who examined Texas growth. Population in Texas is projected to increase at approximately 2.5 times the pace of the United States. Roughly 25% of the population growth expected in the coming five years will land in Texas. People are arriving from other states to become our customers. That gives us a strong opening to expand into what I'd call greener markets than the ones we might have picked when we launched Houston 1.0, and the reason is the confidence we hold on the consumer side. You've seen what we're capable of; in our view, nobody in the country does this better. We believe the numbers bear that out when it comes to how we grow deposits, particularly in the markets we're moving into.

Phil Green

executive
#88

Dan, I believe your explanation of that evolution was excellent, and I'd like to offer a bit of perspective on how we're thinking about the road ahead. At present, we're a company of approximately $55 billion, give or take. Roughly 50% of our deposits come from consumers and 50% from commercial clients. We're on a path to becoming a $100 billion organization — it won't happen overnight, but we will reach that point, and I have strong confidence that the relative balance will stay the same. So when you picture Cullen/Frost as a $100 billion Texas institution with that identical split, it means we'll be operating a $50 billion consumer bank within the state of Texas. At present, I'm not aware of any consumer bank in Texas with $50 billion in assets. It's possible that some portion of the too-big-to-fail institutions has that, but that's an extremely large consumer bank. It seemed logical to me that we are becoming a company with growing skill at reaching these consumer markets, since that is what we will need to be as we keep expanding and as our size reaches that level. The fact that we possess the capability to compete in consumer markets encourages me a great deal. Competing on physical distribution alone isn't enough—though it matters a great deal—you also need real technological capability to satisfy what customers want right now. Take the J.D. Power reports Dan mentioned; in the most recent one I reviewed, and across several others I've seen, we hold the top spot for digital satisfaction. Keeping that position costs us considerably. That's part of why our expense growth runs high, together with the other investments we make to maintain strong service levels. Being able to compete on the consumer side, on top of what we've always done in middle market commercial, strikes me as a big positive. That's one more reason this mortgage product shows how we leverage that franchise and succeed with it. Since launching this product, we've brought in $1 billion of great assets, and great relationships on top of that. I have real confidence in our capacity to grow this Texas market. I truly hope all of you are picking up on that. These growth rates aren't merely numbers—they're genuinely strong. Having spent many years in this business, I recognize a good growth rate when I see one. This isn't merely figures on paper — we're achieving success daily, one relationship at a time, and the value proposition is proving effective. We're operating in the finest markets imaginable. What we have underway here gives me a great deal of encouragement.

Dan Geddes

executive
#89

There's just one more point I'd like to make, and that's about how our branch share compares with our market share. If you look at some of the markets where we've had a presence for a very long time — San Antonio, Austin, and even Fort Worth — our deposit share is higher than our branch share. In San Antonio, where our headquarters is located, we have roughly a 10% branch share, but our market share is 27%. In Austin, the branch share is around 6%, and deposit share is around 7.5%. In Fort Worth, branch share is 6%, while market share is almost 11%. When we first started in Houston back in 2018, we had a 2.6% branch share and a market share of only 1.8%. Today, we've raised our branch share in Houston to nearly 5%, and our deposit share now stands at 2.3%. That's 50 basis points of growth. There's still plenty of runway, just to reach parity with our branch share. Something similar happened in Dallas, where back in 2019 we had a little under 1.5% branch share and a little under 1% market share. At present we're at almost 4% branch share, and deposit share has risen 20 basis points, to 1.1%. So you can see the opportunities in both of those markets for us to keep investing and keep gaining market share.

Michael Rose

analyst
#90

That was a really thorough answer. I appreciate all of your thinking. It's quite useful. Perhaps just a single quick follow-up question for you, Dan. During the last quarter, I believe you may have talked about adding some forward starting swaps. Has anything changed, or do you have any fresh thoughts on that? Thanks.

Dan Geddes

executive
#91

We have not added anything beyond what we already had put in place. I believe we obtained roughly a 200 basis point spread above the fixed rate we were paying on that one, and I think right now it sits a little bit under maybe 30, 40 basis points below that. I think we will probably put one more on. Our plan is to kind of add one roughly every year. The one we put on is a two-year forward starting swap, and if we put another one on next year, and then another one after that, and over about four or five years, we should have between $2.5 to $3 billion built up. We will certainly evaluate opportunities as they come. That's kind of the thought process, as we start getting closer to $100 billion, if they raise that limit, we'll look to lower that duration of our bond portfolio over time, and that can be an effective tool to do that.

Michael Rose

analyst
#92

Okay, that's useful. Thanks.

David Chiaverini

analyst
#93

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. On the net interest margin — great expansion across the past several quarters, reaching 3.78%, with mix shift fueling that growth. Looking ahead over multiple quarters, does that mix-shift tailwind still have room to run?

Dan Geddes

executive
#94

I'd say yes, though it hinges on what the yield curve looks like, correct? Assuming it slopes positively, I believe we still have several years in which we'll be repricing either fixed-rate loans or our investment portfolio into assets with higher yields. To give you a sense — and I've shared these figures before — let me help a bit with where we see that opportunity on our fixed side. In the fourth quarter, we have just about $275 million in fixed-rate loans rolling off at 5.25%, and we could likely get roughly 7.25% on those, so there's a pretty good pick-up there. Next year, a little over $1 billion in fixed-rate loans is anticipated to run off, and those carry a run-off yield of about 5.70%, and we're likely modeling a similar 7.25% rate. That's an opportunity there. Then on our securities portfolio, for the fourth quarter, we're looking at roughly $800 million at around 4%, 4.1% that will either mature or prepay; then in '27, it's about two, around $1.9 billion, and approximately a 4.5% interest rate.

David Chiaverini

analyst
#95

That's quite useful, thank you. Earlier you brought up the fact that market disruption has generated fresh relationships, which are up 73% year-over-year. Could you size what portion of your $2.5 billion loan pipeline stems from market disruption as opposed to grassroots loan demand?

Dan Geddes

executive
#96

Let me check whether I can locate that figure. Just a moment, let's see. Let me try to pull that up for you. What I can say is that, for the year-to-date, roughly $250 million in opportunities have been created; that isn't, I'd say, a major piece of the total opportunities we generate; it's likely in that same range — if it accounts for 10% of our new relationships, it's probably 10% of our prospect opportunities; it's considerably more than before. That's probably the best description I can give, which is that we're seeing it rise at probably twice the pace of what we did last year, simply given the raw numbers, and we're winning 80% of them.

David Chiaverini

analyst
#97

That's quite useful. Thanks.

Jon Arfstrom

analyst
#98

Hi. Appreciate you staying with us. Phil, a quick remark about the pipeline. Earlier you mentioned that the weighted 90-day pipeline rose, I believe, 15% or 16% versus the quarter before.

Phil Green

executive
#99

16%.

Jon Arfstrom

analyst
#100

Yeah; that's a large figure, and I believe I raised this question a couple of quarters back, but that's another sizable figure. What do you think is behind it?

Phil Green

executive
#101

Quite a few factors. It's pretty broad-based. I'll say I know of some sizable commercial real estate opportunities that are in there, but I wouldn't claim it was entirely commercial real estate. Dan, you have some figures there that shed some light on it?

Dan Geddes

executive
#102

Turning to the weighted pipeline. The weighted pipeline is significantly higher than where it has been. At this point last year, it stood at $1.88 billion, $1.85 billion. What is encouraging is that roughly 2/3 is weighted toward customers and 1/3 toward prospects. John, as I mentioned, typically with a customer, on a weighted dollar basis, we generally close approximately 2/3 of those over a long stretch of history, and then prospects about a third. That indicates a couple of things to me. It indicates that our customers, despite all the uncertainty out there, are active, and they are still seeking to grow, and they still perceive opportunity in this environment. You have seen that. It is a fairly good split. You had a slight increase in C&I. Again, there was larger growth in the CRE growth. I would say that is more of our customers in CRE. To me, that means these are relationships we have had over years, and it is not us going and stretching on structure. It is our customer base that is active, and they are looking for us to be their financial resource.

Phil Green

executive
#103

I think another great thing about that weighted pipeline is that we've examined how fundings correlate with it. The relationship is actually pretty strong. We've had this process for a number of years, and it's genuinely a part of our commercial-side sales effort. When I see that number up at that level, it really gives me some confidence.

Dan Geddes

executive
#104

If you look at the regions, it's pretty much what you'd anticipate. Dallas actually posted the biggest gain, followed by Houston, San Antonio, and then Austin. Those four core markets of ours are really driving much of the expectation for closings in Q4 and as '27 gets underway.

Phil Green

executive
#105

So what does that actually mean — and Dan laid it out pretty well — it's simply nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing strange is behind this activity or this success. It's largely just basic boots on the ground, really.

Jon Arfstrom

analyst
#106

All right, that's fine. Just one quick thing. Phil, my earnings model stretches back 25 years, not 90 years. Across all those earnings calls, I doubt I've ever come across the phrase "motor bank." Dan, could you briefly explain the branch sale and what it was about, so we can get a handle on it? It just seemed, well, somewhat random.

Dan Geddes

executive
#107

This likely traces back to some property from when we bought a bank in Fort Worth. Phil remembers.

Phil Green

executive
#108

John, I'd describe it perhaps as drive-through lanes, or a standalone drive-through. It isn't a bank on wheels. What it is: you pull up to the teller kiosk, and they handle your business from inside an automobile.

Dan Geddes

executive
#109

That bank drive-through. Like if you're, yeah.

Jon Arfstrom

analyst
#110

It's really just tidying up a pair of branches that aren't a good fit. Nothing more complicated than that.

Phil Green

executive
#111

I'm surprised "motor bank" hasn't reached your ears, man. Perhaps it's only a Texas expression. Motor bank, man; that's the term.

Jon Arfstrom

analyst
#112

All right. Thanks, guys.

Phil Green

executive
#113

Thank you.

Dan Geddes

executive
#114

Hello.

Phil Green

executive
#115

Very well. Thank you all. Excellent questions and tremendous interest on your part — we value that. This meeting is now closed. Thanks.

Operator

operator
#116

Thanks a lot; that brings today's conference to a close. At this point you're free to disconnect, and we appreciate your taking part.

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