Dürr Aktiengesellschaft (DUE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Sales regarding the financials. And at the end, we will present to you the details of our new outlook. The highlights of the first half are on Slide 4. HOMAG and Video Group as a whole achieved a historic record order intake in the first half. After an extremely strong Q1, order intake at HOMAG remained at almost the same high level in Q2. On top of that, we saw increasing orders from the automotive customers. And as a result, we reached an order backlog of EUR 3.2 billion, which is also a new record level, too. Sales revenues improved sequentially in Q2, mainly driven by HOMAG. The automotive business still had to digest the weak order intake in the first half of 2020 and remained flattish quarter-on-quarter, but we expect an acceleration in the second half of '21. And as you know, in our Systems business, it takes about 9 months between order intake and the first realization of revenues because of the necessary planning and engineering steps. We recorded a high gross margin and EBIT margin in the second quarter, driven by our cost savings and efficiency improvements, a higher service share in revenues and the profitable growth at HOMAG. The EBIT margin before extraordinary effects even reached a level of 5.9%, which is well ahead of our original guidance range for the full year. Free cash flow remained positive and better than expected due to the higher order intake and related prepayments as well as our disciplined working capital management. And we are solidly financed, with a total liquidity of more than EUR 800 million. Our next maturities are only coming up in 2023. And in addition, we just extended our syndicated credit facility by 2 years until July 2026, with terms and conditions unchanged. At the beginning of July, we took the second step in building up our Medtech business and acquired the company, Hekuma. Jochen will talk about this in a minute. On Slide 5, we see an overview of the key financial indicators. Order intake increased by 42%. This includes about EUR 100 million from companies that we have acquired since Q2 last year. Sales revenues grew slightly by 1% and included about EUR 87 million from acquired companies. EBIT before extraordinary effects saw a strong increase from the corona impacted first half of 2020 and reached a margin of 4.8%, which is already in the upper half of our original guidance. As a consequence, we achieved a solid net income after the loss duration of last year. And finally, free cash flow further increased, driven by earnings growth and our already mentioned disciplined net working capital management. Slide 6 shows the development of order intake on a quarterly level. The positive trend continued in Q2 and is an important indicator for the revenue growth that we can expect already this year and thereafter. I already mentioned HOMAG as the main driver, but also the continued demand from the automotive business. Again, we had about 40% of automotive order intake coming from the EV manufacturers. Now let's have a look at the regional split of order intake on Slide 7. Order intake improved across most geographies. China continued to be solid, and it was very strong last year. And in addition, we saw a strong recovery in the Americas and in Europe. The region Asia, Africa and Australia without China was weaker, as solid growth in India, Australia and Japan could not fully compensate the decline in South Korea and Northern Africa, where we had large major projects coming in last year. So now I would like to hand over to Jochen to comment on M&A and sustainability.

Thank you, Ralf, and welcome to all of you also from my side. On Slide 8, we report our latest acquisition. We are expanding industry portfolio by acquiring 100% of Hekuma, a German specialist for high-performance automation located close to Munich. Closing of the transaction is expected later this week. Hekuma is a leading supplier of automatic systems for large-scale production of disposable plastic products used in medication, diagnostics and laboratory technology. They generate roughly EUR 40 million in revenues, with about 180 employees. Product and customer portfolios in the Medtech business are highly complementary to the ones of Teamtechnik, and we see a lot of potential to do additional business and benefit from synergies. With this acquisition, we do the second step in building up a leading Medtech Automation Competence Center, and we are looking for further M&A opportunities. Let's now turn to Slide 9 and the topic of sustainability, which is an important driver for our business. We have accelerated our actions over the past 12 months and released our first sustainability report according to GRI principles in May. Today, I would like to give an outlook on the core products during the second half of 2021. Very important to us at this point is the definition of our climate strategy, which we plan to present in October. We already agreed on the ambition to be in line with the 1.5 degrees goal. And as one example of -- from expanding the use of green energy, we are installing photovoltaics at several plants in Germany. Further projects at other locations are in preparation. In addition, we are working on improving our supply chain transparency. This includes the definition of minimum criteria for our suppliers, the systematic use of audits, up to setting concrete sustainability targets for the whole supply chain. Last, but not least, we are evaluating our product portfolio with regards to the EU taxonomy reporting requirements. All in all, we are making very good progress, but there is still a lot to do. So stay tuned. Now let's have a look at the divisional development. We start with Paint and Final Assembly Systems on Slide 11. Order intake has accelerated in Q2, and we see solid demand from traditional OEMs and EV start-ups in all regions. With Q2 sales revenues, on the other side, we still had to digest the low level of incoming orders from last year and remained at the level of Q1. However, we believe we have the worst behind us and expect an acceleration of revenue generation in the second half. EBIT before extraordinary effects improved in the second quarter as cost reductions, solid project execution and good service revenues had a positive effect on margins. Extraordinary effects in the second quarter included restructuring efforts at Olpidürr in Italy. With a solid order pipeline, PFS is well on track for a further recovery in the second half. Let's turn to Application Technology on Slide 12. Order intake was solid thanks to a lot of momentum from the Americas, Europe and China. Sales revenues were still impacted by the weak order intake in the first half of 2020. EBIT margin improved thanks to the implemented capacity reductions in Europe, further cost improvements and a strong service business driven by a high level of spare parts orders. We expect the business momentum continuing to improve in the second half of 2021. Next is Clean Technology Systems on Slide 13. Order intake in Q2 was close to the high level of the prior year. Revenues were more muted due to some project delays and temporary capacity shortages, but we're expecting appreciable growth in the second half. EBIT margins improved due to the increased efficiencies and the solid project execution. Extraordinary effects include some restructuring charges as we are closing a smaller production site in North America to improve our footprint and cost position. One more thing. We are currently in the bidding process to supply electrode coating equipment to a number of battery cell producers and see significant additional business potential in case we are successful. We'll keep you posted. Now I hand over to Dietmar for the comments on Measuring and Process Systems.

Yes. Thank you, Jochen, and also welcome to everybody from my side. On Slide 14, some -- or you can see the summarization of the development of the measuring and processes division. Order intake and sales revenues increased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. We do see a solid demand from North America and China and the recovery potential in Europe. Service business has grown rapidly with strong margins. Together with the timely cost saving measures implemented last year and improved project execution, this resulted in a stronger-than-expected recovery of the EBIT margin. In short, we have successfully turned around the business and are increasing the margin guidance for the full year. And with this, I hand over to Ralf for the HOMAG business.

Yes. Thank you, Dietmar and Jochen. Let's take a look now at Woodwork and Machine Systems on Slide 15. HOMAG, as I already mentioned, had an extremely remarkable development and a record order intake of EUR 887 million in the first half year, an increase of 80%. The positive momentum in Q1 continued in Q2 without losing much steam. And our solid wood business for the woodhouse industry is a strong contributor now. Compared with last year, order intake in the solid wood business unit grew at 150% and the acquisitions Cogiscan and Kallesoe, contributed strongly to this growth and the margin development. And sales revenues recovered faster than expected, driven by the strong order momentum. We recorded a strong EBIT margin in the second quarter, driven by the sales growth, our optimization program and the strong service business. A lot of carpenter shops are working at high utilization rates, which results in increase of service and single machine demand. We are on track with our investment program at HOMAG. Three weeks ago, we had the groundbreaking ceremony of a new logistics center at Schopfloch, and we really need additional capacities to capitalize on our growth opportunities. And all in all, we see a strong long-term revenue and earnings growth momentum at HOMAG, which exceeds our expectations, and that's why we decided to increase the guidance for HOMAG and for the whole peer group. Finally, we come to the service business on Slide 16. Service sales stabilized on a high level and improved strongly year-on-year, driven by PFS, APT, MPS and HOMAG. The strong spare part business of Q1 also continued in Q2. And service margins remained above the prior year's number. For the full year, we continue to expect a high service share of around 30%. Now Dietmar, I hand over to you again for the financials.

Yes. Thank you, Ralf. I will present more details regarding the financials, starting with Slide 18. Backed by the strong earnings recovery in the second quarter, free cash flow generation continued to perform better than expected. Let's have a closer look at these developments on the following slide. On Slide 19, we can see that sales revenue grew sequentially by about 7%. As mentioned, HOMAG was the main part for this growth, while the automotive business was still lagging behind. From a geographic perspective, China gained share, reflecting the solid order intake of last year, and Europe regained share after the pandemic. The Americas lost share as large projects were finished and Germany was stable. Let's move to EBIT on Slide 20. The EBIT margin before extraordinary effects improved considerably to 5.9% in Q2. Looking at the EBIT bridge for the first half, we can see that the gross profit growth was the main driver for the EBIT improvement. Overhead costs increased year-on-year, but this was mostly driven by our expectations. Organically, the overhead costs rose only by about 3%. Extraordinary effects were at a comparable level as last year. The Q2 EBIT margin level exceeds our original target range for 2021. And therefore, we are upgrading the guidance as you will see in a minute. On Slide 21, we can see the free cash flow development. In the second quarter, we recorded a positive free cash flow of EUR 7 million. For the first half year, this sums up to EUR 73 million, and the EBT improvement was the main driver. Year-over-year says -- therefore, our expectations regarding the free cash flow development for the full year in light of the higher margin potential, but also considering the improved cash inflow from prepayments and came finally to the conclusion that we can raise the guidance. On Slide 22, the development of the net working capital is shown. Here you can clearly see the effect of the solid customer payments in the contract liabilities that further increased compared with year-end 2020. On the other hand, we also see growing inventories, contract assets and trade receivables as the business activity is increasing. On balance, net working capital was reduced by EUR 18 million in Q2 to a level of EUR 387 million, which translates into 43 days working capital, which is in the lower half of our target range. Let's turn to our next slide, financials on Slide 24. Net debt increased slightly due to the acquisition of Kallesoe, and the payment of the dividend, but this was partially compensated by the solid free cash flow generation. Despite the various acquisitions already done this year, the leverage remained well below 1. All in all, we continue to carefully manage our net debt level. Finally, let's have a look at our liquidity headroom on Slide 24. We feel very comfortable with available funds of EUR 1.3 billion, and the next maturity will be coming up in the year 2020. As such, we can now fully focus on developing our business as we exit the pandemic. And with this, a few from the financial side, Ralf, I hand back to you for the outlook.

Yes. Thank you very much, Dietmar. On Slide 26, we see the July forecast of LMC Automotive for light vehicle production in '21 and until '28, predictions for a strong rebound of production volumes in '21, but to a slightly lower level than previously expected. This is due to the semiconductor shortages that are impacting a number of production lines. So far, the impact has not been significant on our own sourcing side, and we did not see an effect of the CapEx decisions of our customers. Mid- to long term, LMC continues to see a growth potential to above 100 million vehicles per year. We did not include a slide on the furniture market in this presentation as we are still working on the updating of the market data, and this market is very dynamic at the moment. We will publish the update in our Investor Relations presentation as soon as it is ready. Our quick take is that the market outlook has clearly improved. And on Slide 27, we see the outlook for the solid wood machinery market. We expect an annual growth rate of more than 5% over the next years and believe that we are well positioned to capture additional market growth. I think indeed, it's very difficult to forecast this market because we believe that for the next 10 years, this will be a growth market and maybe this 2-digit growth because of the activities we see at the moment and is just starting this market. So the market outlook for production systems for medical technology on Slide 28 is unchanged. We expect a high single-digit percentage growth rate over the next years and continue to look for acquisitions, as Jochen mentioned, in order to further strengthen our position in this market segment. Now let's come to the details of our new guidance. We'll start with the divisional guidance, as this is a starting point for the update of the group guidance. On Slide 29, you can see that we raised our target ranges for Woodworking Machine & Systems. Incoming orders go up from a range between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.27 billion to a range between EUR 1.55 billion and EUR 1.65 billion. This reflects the very strong business dynamics that we are currently experiencing in our markets. As a consequence, we also increased the range for sales revenues from between EUR 1.12 billion and EUR 1.22 billion to between EUR 1.25 billion and EUR 1.4 billion. The range for the EBIT margin before extraordinary effects was increased by 200 basis points from between 4% and 5% to between 6% and 7% now. Higher volumes, efficiency improvements and the strong service business are the major drivers for this. In addition, we increased the target range for the EBIT margin before extraordinary effects for measuring and process systems. The business has turned around nicely, and margins were better than expected in the second quarter. The new target range is between 7% and 8% compared with the old range between 4.8% and 5.8%. And for PFS, APT and CDS, we confirm the original guidance. Finally, we have successfully implemented our restructuring measures at PFS and APT. And the demand outlook and order backlog are very solid and parts, shortages as well as material price increases are well managed from our side. So on the next slide, we see how these upgrades are reflected on group level. On Slide 30, we can see the picture for the group. We expect incoming orders to reach a new record level of between EUR 4 billion and EUR 4.2 billion in '21. Sales revenue should reach a range of between EUR 3.6 billion and EUR 3.8 billion. The new target range for the EBIT margin before extraordinary effect is between 5% and 6% and for the reported EBIT margin between 4.1% and 5.1%. This translates into a net income target range between EUR 70 million and EUR 120 million and an ROCE between 12% and 16%. And as Dietmar already mentioned, we see additional potential for the free cash flow due to better margins and the strong order intake that currently translates well into prepayments. As a consequence, we increased the target range by EUR 100 million to between EUR 50 million and EUR 100 million. The target rate for the net financial status improved by EUR 50 million to between minus EUR 175 million and minus EUR 125 million. This reflects the additional acquisitions that we have done in '21 on top of Teamtechnik like Cogiscan and Kallesoe and Hekuma. And capital expenditure remains between 2.5% and 3.5% of revenues. So all in all, we see a solid operational setup across all divisions. We have successfully implemented significant restructuring measures last year and we are well managed parts -- and we are well managing the part shortages and material price increase. The record order intake level will also have a positive impact on the next year. So for '22, we currently expect to exceed the revenue and margin level of the precrisis year 2019. Back then, revenues amounted to EUR 3.9 billion, and the EBIT margin before extraordinary effects was 6.7%. We feel very well positioned to grow profitably. On Slide 31, we see our strategy and midterm targets. And based on the positive business dynamics, we are confident that we will reach our midterm targets in '23 or '24 latest. So now let's summarize on Page 32. Order intake at HOMAG and for the group reached new record levels in the first half of '21. Sales revenues are on a recovery path, and we saw a strong margin improvement in the second quarter, driven by efficiency and cost saving measures from last year and a strong service business. Free cash flow generation has been stronger than expected and driven by solid customer payments, which we will expect to continue with the high order intake. And we further strengthened our Medtech portfolio with the acquisition of Hekuma. And due to the strong order intake dynamics, we are raising our guidance for '21, and we are well on track to reach our midterm targets. So thank you very much from all of us for your attention so far. Now we are happy to answer your questions. And I can hand back to Mr. Becker.

[Operator Instructions] First question is by Philippe Lorrain of Berenberg.

A couple of points from my side. I would like to come back to the free cash flow guidance. It will increase by about EUR 100 million. Your net income guidance is raised by EUR 30 million. You mentioned in your preparatory comments that you take into account the strong order intake and prepayments as well and that is probably bridging basically the EUR 70 million remaining, if you want, from increasing the net income by EUR 30 million to the free cash flow by EUR 100 million. How should we think about working capital and Dürr's working capital going further and especially about the work in progress balance, basically, the contract balance on the different projects, please?

Maybe I'll take this question, Philippe, this is Dietmar speaking. In regards to net working capital, we clearly have the target range to operate within 40 and 50 days. And then naturally, we are right now at the lower end, normally would expect then also to assume the midpoint for the second half of the year on one side. There will be a little bit of increase expected coming from that side. We are making progress with the execution of the projects, so we are building up then the contract as well. And as you see, the -- or quite some portion of the target range was already done within the first half of the year. So this is finally how the pieces are coming together.

Yes. So I understand correctly that you could be like below the 40 days and then if you normalize again towards the 40, 50 days?

Yes, right.

Okay. Perfect. Then the second one is on HOMAG. So the guidance looks very good, I have to say, like in terms of growth this year for order intake. Now if I try to reflect a little bit on that for the coming years, your targets are to bring up your market share in furniture towards 40% from 30-plus percentage you've got right now. You've got the opportunity as well coming from solid wood, the underlying market growth. Is it fair to assume that probably until 2025 or so, your business might reach about EUR 2 billion of sales and order intake? Or is it about a bit farfetched?

Somewhat in 2025, and if you assume that the dynamics is continuing like that, I would say, yes, I think the solid wood business will definitely grow. The furniture business is a little bit more volatile. We have an extremely increase at the moment. We also anticipate for the second half of this year a little bit coming down on a high level. Will continue also next year. So by all having said this, this could be a potential scenario in '25 absolutely. That's what we are going for.

Okay. Interesting. And any thought then on the kind of margin that you could generate on the sales basis? I mean...

I know what you want to know. So the official one so far is 29%, and I think that would be a good achievement. Also, I have to say, when we continue like that, and these improvements take place, and they will, by also the investments we are doing now not only we make new buildings and warehouses and logistics center. We are also streamlining processes behind that. So there's a potential for 2-digit EBIT definitely. And -- but I would not say 15%, but 10% should be possible also.

The next question is by Sven Weier of UBS.

The first one is on the 2021 guidance and the implications for the second half. I was just curious, when I take the midpoint of your guidance, you're implying around about EUR 2.1 billion of sales and EBIT of EUR 125 million before extraordinaries. When I look at the 2 years before the pandemic, you also had on average around about EUR 2.1 billion of sales, but EBIT of at least EUR 160 million. So I was wondering, are you just being cautious here? Or what has structurally changed against those 2 years? That's the first one.

I think structurally changed has a lot because we take -- took some measures last year to improve our structure. And the answer is, to be honest, yes, we are cautious. And we have not -- we don't want to be overambitious, but potential is there.

So structurally, you have actually improved over those years, right? So that's another reason to be...

When you talk about 2 years back, we had a structure for that kind of volume. We reduced that, anticipated, particularly in Europe. But if in other regions, the volume is increasing, then the potential, so definitely, yes.

Okay. Understood. And then coming back to HOMAG, right? I mean, obviously, a strong cycle here for the last couple of quarters. Remind us, obviously, of what happened a few years ago. And what makes you sure that the downside volatility doesn't happen this time around? What visibility do you have and what comfort?

Yes. That's a good question, and I saw in your report and it's a valid question, to be honest. But there's many differences. 2 years ago, 3 years ago, when we had this big peak in order intake, it was mainly driven out of large system projects, particularly in China, but also in other regions where we had EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million, EUR 40 million each order. And this was also the problem which blocked the company because these large projects are taking a lot of space, have slowed, they take a long time to get them out of the shop. And in this upturn, we have a very strong single machine business, which is, for us, in a factory, much easier to scale up than the system business. The visibility of that, to be honest with you, 6 months ago, we did not anticipate that we have such a strong growth. We knew that it will improve. And it will also change maybe and to decrease again. But from today's perspective, the next 2 years, talk to our customers, we don't see here a big change. Also, I have to say that on the system business side on HOMAG, we are on budget level. So that wave is more or less coming in the second half and next year because many of our larger customers are considering to increase capacities.

And last time, the business went down was the Single Machinery business, and that downturn stable and it was just driven by the systems business.

But last year exactly, we had a big, in particular in China, but also elsewhere a strong drop in the system business. The system business in HOMAG at it peak was EUR 300 million, EUR 340 million and dropped down to EUR 150 million. That was a big one because EUR 300 million, something like that. Andreas is checking or I need to check. I don't know roughly EUR 280 million, EUR 300 million, and it dropped down significantly by more than half. And we are in a level now again, more than EUR 200 million. And the single machine business was kind of flattish, but now that -- and that's why it's so positive that we have the increase in the single machine business. It's much better for the structured format.

Understood. And then when I think about you already giving this guidance for next year and the confidence in reaching the midterm target in 2023, I suspect that the confidence also in the rest of the business has increased over the last few months, not just for HOMAG.

Jochen, you can comment on the pain side. On the automotive side, that's the case. Management was not looking so positive as is now.

We have -- I mean the market is, of course, still -- I mean, automotive is automotive. We know that. But we've done a lot of homework in the last 12 months. We have reduced capacities in our APT and PFS business just in Germany for more than 20% of head count. So we've significantly reduced our capacity. We've closed 4 plants in the last year. So we have a better starting point at the same levels. And what we're seeing is not only business from China, but more balanced order income from North America, from South America, also from Europe. So that makes us quite confident for the year. And obviously, the bookings that we do this year help us on the sales side next year. This is why we are confirming the guidance for the year. For -- when I say we, in this case, especially for PFS and APT. And because we will have a strong backlog at the end of this year, then we have -- that's why we are also so confident for '22 for the sales and EBIT side.

The next question is by Alexander Hauenstein of DZ Bank.

Alex Hauenstein from DZ Bank. I've got a few. First of all, with regard to the microchip shortage, actually, I had expected that there might be an indirect effect coming through to APT? When and under which circumstances could you actually feel it? And do you think that your clients have here any stocks that last potentially another few quarters eventually? Or is there a risk finally? And coming back to PFS and APT, I understand you confirm the outlook, obviously, and it's both on H2 story. Is there any buffer in the guidance here in order to potentially surprise us again on that side over the next 2 quarters or so? And coming at...

Can we just make one question after the other.

Yes, of course. Of course.

Sorry. Our capacity is limited.

Our mental capacity.

Yes. Thanks for asking, Alex. On the microchip shortage, when we present, it probably sounds as if the world was fine, it's not. And we were fighting every day. We're fighting in some cases, is set together with our customers in order to secure supplies. And there is some impact, which we are managing at the moment. So if you ask the number, there is probably a few million in the game at the moment, which we are compensating, not only on the chip side, but in some cases, the availability also of other materials, if you will. But that's -- and this is our underlying assumption for the guidance that we continue to manage this. And this basically also answers the second question of the buffer as we cannot really perfectly evaluate what's happening in the second half. We are basically in order to be on the safe side, if you will, confirm. We confirm the guidance for those 2 businesses.

Okay. Understood. And coming back to the higher raw material prices, where and when are you actually feeling it already? And where could come any effect with a certain time delay here, maybe divisions?

Look, I don't -- there is still time delay because the issues that are out there are evident at the moment. I mean you know this, at least as good as we do in terms of steel, especially but other raw materials and some products drive, just name it. This is what we have, which we are managing at the moment. So we don't expect that to become worse. On the other hand, we believe that the market is a little bit overheated at the moment and that we might see rather improvement in the third, if not fourth, quarter, but we are currently dealing with those issues.

And you see it on the wood prices coming down again there, yes.

Okay. And last question on Clean Technology Systems. Can you elaborate a bit about the nature of size and timing of the electrode coating equipment to battery cells producers and then the bidding process and eventually hopefully, finally getting an order here? What's that about?

Yes. Thanks for asking. So we really believe or hope that we can report something positive in the third quarter. But no more detail so far. Look, nice customer. I mean the suspects are there. And when I talk about this business, I'm also definitely maybe to narrow it down a little bit. I talk about Europe.

The next question is by Ingo Schachel of Commerzbank.

And my first question would be on the margin and Measuring and Process Systems. You obviously provided a few good reasons why it's higher, the reduction of overcapacities and the project execution. But I guess these factors were already part of your strategic plan when you gave the initial guidance. So curious to understand a bit better and get a bit more comment from you, what really drives the incremental surprise for one of those factors you were not anticipating a sizable guidance increase for measuring and process and the margins. I guess, it must be execution and pricing quality of recent order intake?

Yes. Ingo, you mentioned you're right. First of all, we have been cautious with the guidance also to see whether all the cost improvement measures that we implemented are paying off in the way. Indeed, they are now paying off. So we do see the positive momentum there. We do also see that the project execution is very solid, that there is a recovery in business where we're having a strong position, strong margin profile. We are doing business in regard to take charters for example. So we also see that the internal combustion actually is still alive. We have good project.

Last year, that business was dead.

Yes, exactly. So this is then contributing then as well. In regard to the execution, that's the reason finally why we now conclude that the potential is higher to achieve a better margin. And that's why we raised actually the guidance.

Okay. And then my second question would be on your M&A strategy or your M&A pipeline in the short term. Of course, you've done a good number of deals in the last few months. So not trying to put pressure on you, but the next deal has to be around the corner again. But just curious to understand whether you see any other gaps or short term priorities where we might see something in the second half or whether I should rather expect a slightly bias in that period with regards to M&A than in the first half of this year?

Okay. This is Ralf Dieter speaking. As you said, we did quite a bunch of acquisitions. So we -- at the moment, we have nothing around the corner, which would materialize in the third quarter. We are looking at companies, as Jochen said, also in the Medtech area. But at the moment, we want to swallow what we have just bought.

The next question is by Lucie Carrier of Morgan Stanley.

The first one is a follow-up on, I think, the question around the 2022 guidance. Can you help us understand maybe how much of this guidance you expect to be covered by the backlog you kind of foresee for the end of 2021? Just for us to understand a little bit really what's the level of visibility or certainty you have on the numbers you're giving now for 2022, which I have to say you are probably the only company in the sector to be able to provide such a long-term guidance.

Yes. Thank you, Lucie. Ralf speaking. You're right, there's not many forecast in '22. It's not because we are totally blunt, but it's a little bit also to the nature of our business. And when I look at the order intake dynamics, we expect for the second half, we can expect that our order backlog level, which is today EUR 3.1 billion could stay around that level. And then you take, let's say, EUR 2.8 billion or EUR 2.9 billion, doesn't matter. But let's say roughly EUR 3 billion. And then you have quite a big portion of next year's revenue already in that backlog. So that's why we have a good visibility. It doesn't mean that we still also have to have short-term business coming in, no doubt, in all divisions, but it's a very, very solid fundament for next year. That's why we are daring to forecast '22 a little bit.

And can you maybe help us comment around what I would call the quality of the backlog of the contracts you are seeing now in terms of how much they embed, let's say, ability to potentially kind of increase price if we were seeing further inflation or around kind of the type of customer you are having? And your confidence in them kind of really materializing those orders kind of on time or within the time frame that is great because, obviously, I guess, some of the concern is in the past, sometimes you have been seeing delays or some consolation. And obviously, you're already guiding for 18 months ahead.

You're right. We had in the past always delays in some projects, which is the nature of the business. Cancellations, we have not many. I can't remember the last 10 years or during the pandemic, not even that. So cancellation is not the issue. You see the timing is one for sure. The quality of the order backlog is a good one. We have increasing margins, that is quite interesting, also in the new equipment sales. So we see that we have a good quality in the backlog and execution next year. For sure, one or the other project can move a little bit, but EUR 3 billion is a huge backlog, yes.

The next question is by Daniel Gleim with Stifel.

My questions, I actually got 3 of them all on HOMAG. The first one is on your current trading impressions in July. Is there any reason to believe or are there any hints already in July that there is a sequential slowdown in the order intake momentum as your guidance implies that there is a volatile comparison base in 2020 and some sequential acceleration and seasonality involved in that, which makes the month-to-month comparison a little cumbersome. But taking everything into account in north of client discussion and the like, do you already see a slowdown in July over the second and third quarter?

So July will be a decent month. We will have not a record month, but it will be still on a high level. And we see -- that's why also in the guidance when you calculate the order intake for the second half, it's a little bit less than the first half, also not much less. So it looks quite stable, but with some contribution between EUR 20 million and EUR 30 million per month down, but it looks stable.

The second question is a little bit on the slide you have currently in the making for the woodworking machinery market. And I would like to ask you for your initial thoughts on that. If I look at the old slides, the '23, '24 absolute market size seems to be flattish compared to '18, '19. It also looks like we are topping off at this sealing around EUR 4 billion. I don't find that unintuitive that we have a change now in the pandemic. We have a lot of demand for furniture and your customers are working in peak utilization rates that this could regard an acceleration of the recovery, also there might be some pent-up demand from the years before. But maybe you can shed a little bit light on what you think the new normal is for the end market. Are we reaching that already and incremental growth that comes from market share on new product? Or is there an entire change with regards to the trajectory of the slide, potentially growing ever higher every year? So maybe you can walk us little through your initial thoughts?

That's right. I try to refer to the old slide of the woodworking market, it shows how difficult to forecast the future is. And I have to say this slide, we always have to look carefully at because most of that business is format because we are the dominant market player in that. But to be honest, and I talk to a lot of our customers, and nobody was expecting such a strong recovery so fast. But that's for sure has an effect out of a catch-up from the pandemic, no doubt. And other thing since the pandemic, many things have changed. People are more oriented to their homes, and that's why we still see continuously the demand for new furniture, new kitchen. And then you talk to carpenters, they are fully booked out there. And then you want the carpenter to come to your home you can wait till autumn there. So that thing will continue. The investment has, for sure, a little bit of peak. So we are seeing a little bit of slowdown. But next year to continue on a high level, but not with these increases anymore. That's definitely not. But then it would be already for a good value for us in terms of market. And as we mentioned, we have -- we are internally working in each of the business units in HOMAG on the Strategy 25-Plus where we want to get to a 40% market share, which we will not achieve in all the segments, but that's the ambition with new products down the road. Also this year, we have -- part of the success is that we have for example, in the standard edge machines, we have really a high seller. We sold in the first quarter, the old yearly production. Now we increased the best returns, so that's some of the effects. So it's a mixture of market demand and also the competitor, a strong order intake, but some good machine service is very strong because we have the highest service capacity in this business and very motivated people. So that's a mixture of the situation.

Very clear. The last question, could you give us the current split in between the new equipment and single machines and systems? That's the first part. And secondly, what is your current market share that you want to raise to 40%?

So I'll try to make it by my heart. So you have not asked for solid group. It's also an interesting question. And the solid good area answer without question is about EUR 100 million order intake so far and the system business, about EUR 150 million.

And current market share, ex-China versus China?

We don't calculate this every month, but let's say, something around 30%, 32%. At the moment, we are focusing on selling and not so much counting market share, but we will have some quarterly statistic next time, I can tell you.

Next question is by Peter Rothenaicher of Baader Bank.

Firstly, also a question on HOMAG, can you please report about HOMAG China Golden Field? How is it processing here? Are you already successful in driving business in China? Or -- and what are your expectations here over the next couple of years?

The acquisition last year -- and to be honest, HOMAG was one of my concern areas that we can stabilize this 460 Chinese people we acquired. And I think we had the opportunity to put in the Managing Director of Schenck to take over HOMAG China. He is very experienced, 20 years plus in China, and speaks Chinese, which helped a lot in the integration. It works very well. The teams are working -- I mean, the people know each other in HOMAG and China Golden Field, but they were on different sites, now they're in one pot, and this works very well. And the -- so we can say that runs smoothly, business is strong. And also dominated by the business so far, but we are working also on some system projects, larger ones coming in end of this year and next year. So that business -- the system business is the next wave for the next 12 months.

With the topic automation of furniture manufacturing still a major driver? And what could be then the China business within, let's say, 3 years or so?

Automation is -- particular in China, a strong driver because we tried to replace many manual work also for cost reasons. I have not a forecast now for China in 3 years, but it will definitely grow in the next years by 5% to 10% per annual definitely.

Okay. The technical question that we have seen now in the first half year, a somewhat higher tax ratio, I would say. Normally, I think tax ratio should be at around 28%. Now it's more than 29%. What is your guidance here for the year 2021 and also going on to '22, '23?

Yes. Basically, it should be in a range of 28% to 30%. Sometimes, we have impact that are not tax-deductible, so then it would fluctuate a little bit, but basically being in that range of 28% to 30%. And then moving ahead, basically a similar view. Of course, we need to see the upcoming changes in taxation in the U.S. where we're also having a solid footprint, then the potential increase of the current global tax rate, and that will have an impact and maybe by 2 to 3 percentage points overall. But let's see, first of all, what the government in the U.S. is going to decide finally.

[Operator Instructions]

It looks like we have answered all questions. Mr. Becker. Mr. Becker?

The next question and last question is by Roberto Casoni of Otus Capital.

Actually, most of the questions have been asked already, but I have one, final one, on HOMAG. In previous conference calls, you were mentioning about your intention to grow with HOMAG at -- strongly and to increase your market share in a market which was already dominated by yourself. So I'm just trying to understand, given the current circumstances, how do you raise the pricing power at the moment? I mean, of course, most of your customers, particularly single machines, can read about commodities, prices going up, input costs going up. Would they fight against your pricing? Or is it much, much easier for you now to impose the pricing that actually justifies the return of new ones?

Good question. Mr. Casoni. And the answer is -- clearly is the following. We discussed price increases internally already in May, June. And because our major industrial customers in Germany decided not to pass on the price increase to the end users with the end to the end customer and we are basically also not doing it, but we -- and the whole industry is increasing prices now. And we also will do that. And in the first discussions with the customers, we have, for sure, they don't like, but there's much more understanding than Jochen would find on the automotive side, talking to the OEMs about price increases. Yes, they understand, and it's manageable to also to pass it to the customer.

Maybe just to add because in conjunction also with the competition, as Ralf indicated, on the HOMAG side, we also revitalized and did a redesign of the product offering and at this point single machine actually where we have seen one quarter, then the whole production of the year was sold. So the new designs that we are having are really finding attention in the market. They are attractive, so this actually increases then our pricing power.

But at the moment, the customers talk more about delivery times and prices to say like an example.

Yes. That's the same message I have from on the other side. So they really -- clients -- I mean, contrary to 2 years ago, but just don't worry about pricing, just give me the machine now. I need it now basically, and the deliveries and they'll say, okay, well, it gives you a lot of power, yes.

Another question has reached us by Elizabeth [indiscernible] Investments.

Yes, I'd like to know what is this -- what are you doing in this battery business? And how big is it potentially? I don't want to know what the order is, but just getting the importance of that business.

Yes. Thanks for asking the question. To explain a bit technically, what we're doing is we are, first of all, we're involved in the production of battery cells. So not -- the battery packs, I'll talk about in a second. First is battery cells where through the acquisition of MEGTEC more than 2 years ago, we acquired a technology to coat electrodes, which are needed, obviously, for the production of battery cells. And what we do there is the coating part, the drying that comes thereafter. And during drying, you also do solvent recovery. The solvents that are used in the slurry that is then to call the electrodes is very toxic and very expensive. This is why it's important to recover much of that solvent during drying spot. So that's one piece of the business that we do. We have a league technology to coat the 2 sides of the electrodes simultaneously. All other producers in the world have a so-called tandem process where they coat one side after another. Coat one side, dry it. Coat the other side, dry it, which is a bit more complex and not as efficient as the technology that we have. That's a business where typical project sizes, depending on the size of the factories that are built, can range between, say, EUR 20 million and more than EUR 100 million. If you install anything, let me be a little bit vague between 1 gigawatt and 10 gigawatt plant. So this is the one side of the business that we do. And that business is within CTS. But we also do, through the acquisition of Teamtechnik, we have also a technology to do end-of-line testing for batteries, where we measure the performance of a battery pack. Now we're into packs and complete batteries. That's quite an interesting and growing business as well. Nevertheless, here, we're talking about project sizes below or above EUR 1 million, let's say. But I think the business you were referring to and what we mentioned during the presentation of CTS, that was the business of coating of electrodes for the cell production. Sorry for the long answer.

There are no further questions, so I hand back to the Dürr team.

Yes. Thank you, Mr. Becker, and thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for your flexibility to be earlier on our call than expected and also for your questions. And if there are any questions open or may raise after that call, Andreas and his team is happy to receive your call and to give you answers. And we are looking forward to talk to you next time after the third quarter, latest -- it's actually latest. It was not a wrong announcement. We will do it. Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everybody.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.