Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 11, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Christian Herrmann
executiveLadies and gentlemen, welcome to Daimler Truck. Welcome to our Capital Markets Day. I'm Christian Herrmann, Head of Investor Relations and M&A, and I have the pleasure to guide you through our event today. It actually is our first Capital Market Day as an independent listed company, and we have a lot in store for you today. You know from our past presentations, and you just saw it again in the video that we aim to unlock our full profit potential and to lead the historical transformation of our industry. Today, we want to give you an update on that. It will be a comprehensive extended update, meaning that we will not only look at our further steps toward our 2025 ambitions, but beyond. Today -- and this is a premiere. We will present to you our story until 2030. And I think it will be quite compelling. Martin Daum, our CEO, will be first to tell you about what we call our transformation for sustainable growth. Andreas Gorbach, our CTO, will explain how we are elevating our technology leadership in powertrains and truck operating systems. Jochen Goetz, our CFO, will then report how we are leveraging our financial strength to deliver an ambitious financial plan for 2030. Key themes throughout all the presentations will be our intense focus on shareholder value creation, our capital discipline and our ability to reward our shareholders. In between the presentations, you will hear from our segment heads in specific videos. After that, Martin will come back for a quick wrap up, and then we are looking forward to your questions. For everyone who is not able to join us live today, should you have any questions to the later Q&A session. Please e-mail them to [email protected], and we will ask them for you. I would also like to remind you as always that this Capital Market Day is governed by the disclaimer wording that you find at the published Capital Market Day documents. Please note that our presentations contain forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. And that's it from my side. Let's jump right in and get started. Martin, the stage is yours.
Martin Daum
executiveA warm welcome to our Capital Market Day also on my part. When I look around, I think we picked really an exciting location for our event here in Boston. Since this actually used to be the world's largest power generation plant at one point of time, this is truly an energizing location. And that is exactly what we want to deliver here today, a truly energizing event. It has been exactly 20 months since our last Capital Market Day and we have used this time very well. We made great progress and got a lot accomplished, and there is even more potential going forward. Not only with respect to our 2025 ambitions but also beyond. Our Daimler Truck story for the second half of this decade gets even more exciting. We call our 2030 plan, transforming for sustainable growth because this is exactly what we are doing in the literal sense of every single word. We are transforming our products and services. And we are transforming the profitability of our group. We are becoming more sustainable in terms of the transition to zero-emission vehicles. And we are becoming more sustainable in terms of profitability. We have great opportunities for growth, thanks to our strong global presence. And we have great opportunities for growth, thanks to our leading solutions, as you see here, and we will go for these opportunities. Transforming for sustainable growth means Daimler Truck has an exciting road ahead. It means that it is a fascinating time to be leading this company. Let me now walk you through our story in all details. Let's start off where we are coming from while we are paving our way forward. We will not forget our heritage. Our purpose remains the very same. We work for all who keep the world moving. This is who Daimler Truck is and our entire global team is very proud of that. Despite all changes going on in our industry, this is something that will not change. Trucks and buses will remain the backbone of the economy and the society. Our industry, therefore, remains a virtually vitally important industry. Daimler Truck is a global leader in this industry in terms of technology and global presence as well as in terms of trust and authority. When we talk, the industry listens. We are fully committed to maintaining this leadership. We aim to lead the ongoing technological transformation. We will do so with great zero-emission products like our Freightliner eCascadia that you can see right next to me there. And we will do it so with great customer focus or as we like to say internally, with great customer obsession. At Daimler Truck, we are obsessed with making customers successful and we're supporting them on their way to sustainable transportation. We want to make sure we can offer our customers exactly the right solutions. And that means not just the right product, but all those the right service offerings and the right financial services. We will do so with partners wherever it makes sense and by ourselves where we see a real competitive advantage. And we will now look at the overall prospects of our industry. There is a lot of good news. First, many industries face extential, strategic questions over the future in a zero-carbon world. And the transportation -- and the transition to zero-emission transport certainly is a transition of historic dimensions. But it is no disruption to our industry per se. That's because the foundation of our industry is rock solid. Means of transportation are key to keeping the world moving and there are no better means of transportation inside than trucks and buses. Trucks remain the most practical solution for long-haul movement of goods and for last-mile delivery. So our products cannot be replaced. And a successful OEM like Daimler Truck cannot simply be replaced either. This is particularly due to our deep customer relationships. For our customers, the purchase of our trucks and buses often is the most important decision they make throughout the year. Consequently, they want a partner they can trust. We as Daimler Truck have the trust of our customers. and this trust is not earned easily. The second piece of good news regarding the overall prospects for our industry is this. Trucks remain a growth industry. Even in a zero-carbon world. It remains a cyclical industry, and we will continue to see setbacks also in the future, but these setbacks will continue to be temporary. And thanks to catch-up effects, the recovery usually is all the more significant. The underlying growth trend is still intact because global GDP will continue to grow and if GDP grows, the number of trucks will grow as well. There is a strong correlation. All in all, our core markets in North America and Europe should see good volume growth over the medium term. And there's a very significant growth potential in India where we also have a strong presence. As a global leader, we are very well positioned, and we will make sure we take maximum advantage of this positive industry outlook. Now let's look at our specific way forward as Daimler Truck and how exactly we are transforming for sustainable growth. The first message here is we are fully on track to deliver on our 2025 profit ambitions. We are on track to deliver higher profitability. And more than this, we can -- we are increasing the resilience of our business. Today, our outlook remains positive. Our order books are full. Our pricing is solid. But at some point, not necessarily tomorrow and not the day after tomorrow, there will be another downturn, and we are preparing for that. We are reducing our fixed cost, increasing our recurring revenues, building out our financial services and continuing with our robust cash generation. In addition, we are delivering greater shareholder rewards. As a first step, we confirmed our first dividend at our Annual General meeting 3 weeks ago. In short, we are delivering for 2025, what we announced for 2025. And this is an important step. By 2025, we will lay the foundation for our transformation for sustainable growth. From this foundation, we can then take the next big step and execute this transformation. This is our story until 2030, and we will share it with you today. It's a powerful story because at Daimler Truck, we are ready for the transition to the new world of zero emissions, we are ready to capture all opportunities that come with it. And there are great opportunities. The combination of growing markets, deep customer relationships, more services, the chances of zero-emission products have for us and the potential of autonomous, meaning all higher levels of profits. At the same time, we maintain our capital discipline, controlling our CapEx and R&D to generate an even higher free cash flow. This cash further strengthens our financial position and allows even greater rewards for our shareholders. I believe this makes Daimler Truck a very compelling proposition. Now let's take a closer look at our 2030 plan and the winning formula behind it. At the core is our high-performance culture that we refined since our separation into an independent company and where shareholders value is a major focus. On top that there are 6 strong strategic pillars. One, we consistently implement our self-help measures to increase resilience. Two, we ensure recurring revenue streams to further increase resilience and customer lifetime value. Three, we'll take full advantage of our economies of scale with respect to conventional and zero-emission technologies. Four, we prioritize the high-margin heavy-duty segment. Five, we take advantage of autonomous trucking to enter this very profitable business with recurring revenue streams. And finally six, fully integrate ESG into our strategic framework. Let us now go through our strategic pillars. I want to start by pointing out, we are delivering. and we are doing so despite a much more challenging environment than was ever expected. First, we are delivering on technology transformation. We will have 10 zero-emission products in serious production by the end of this year. And let me make one thing clear because this term is sometimes used in different ways. When we talk about serious production, we actually mean serious production. We can then produce a vehicle in any quantity our customers want and not just a few prototypes for selected customers. Second, we are delivering new products for attractive markets. You can see the best example right next to me. The X-Series vocational products by our Western Star brand are extremely well received by our customers in North America. In addition, the Tourrider bus is established itself in the U.S. coach segment, the world's most profitable bus market. And in China, the world's largest truck market, our locally produced Mercedes-Benz heavy-duty truck is gaining momentum. Third, we are delivering on our service initiatives. In 2022, the service revenue in our industrial business was 15% above 2019, setting a new record in our parts business. And there's more to come. For example, driven by optimization of our dealer network and by expanding the possibility of e-commerce. Finally, we are clearly delivering against our financial ambitions to ensure maximum shareholder value creation and attractive dividends. We have significantly improved our return on sales, we have further strengthened our balance sheet and our cash conversion remains strong. And we are consistently executing our active portfolio management. This includes our willingness to take the hard decisions guiding by return on capital employed in our capital allocation framework. We are now further optimizing our capital allocation framework and Jochen Goetz will provide an update in his presentation. I also have an update for you or should I rather say a very positive update. Following our strongest first quarter in 2023, we have continued our positive momentum in the last couple of months. We are now very confident that 2023 will be another record year for Daimler Truck, and we are, therefore, raising our guidance. We raised the adjusted ROS target of our industrial business by 1% point from 7.5% to 9% previously to now 8.5% to 10%. And what is particularly positive, we also raised the adjusted ROS target range of each industrial segment by 1 percentage point with no exception. We are now guiding for 11% to 13% at Trucks North America; for 8% to 10% at Mercedes-Benz; for 4% to 6% at Trucks Asia and for 3% to 5% at Daimler Buses. For financial services, we do not raise the target of 9% to 11% return on equity at this point as financial services is still ramping up its business in Europe. Jochen Goetz will have further details on our guidance. Let me conclude this topic by pointing out our increased guidance is another important step towards our ambition of 10% was and more. And it's a clear sign of our confidence about our way forward. If we now look at 2025, my key message is this. We keep all our 2025 financial ambitions on group and in segment level. We are able to do this despite the fact that the macro environment has proven more challenging. That's because we consistently implement our self-help measures. We are on track with growing our services to translate our customer relationships into recurring revenues. And while we will need to invest in the transformation of our company, we do this in a very disciplined, rightsized way. We focus on investments on zero-emission technologies and on autonomous trucking. And we do not everything ourselves. We joined forces with partners whenever it makes sense. Fixed cost reduction is proving to be challenging, not least because of the inflationary environment. But despite the fact that pricing is currently more than compensating for cost pressure, we will not soften this ambition. We must and we will further reduce our fixed cost to ensure greater resilience so that we are prepared in the event of a rainy scenario. The next factor is our winning formula is services. And here is an overview of our portfolio. As you can see, we run a comprehensive ecosystem that goes well beyond our products and complements them perfectly. This is great for our customers because for a successful transition into the new area of zero-emission transportation, they do not just need the best vehicles, they need the best overall solution. And it's great for Daimler Truck because an expanding service business means increasing recurring revenue streams with the return on capital employed that is well above average. A very good example for that is our eCanter. We not only offer attractive services for maintenance, insurance and leasing for our eCanter, we also finance the installation of the necessary charging infrastructure, for example we provide comprehensive consulting on the best charging strategies in the depot and along the route, and we are preparing numerous other services such as energy procurement and the reuse of recycling of batteries. So there's a great eCanter ecosystem, and it is built around a great vehicle. I'm convinced that the eCanter is the best electric truck money can buy these days in the world. It has been in serious production since 2017, and in the young area of zero emissions, 6 years is a long, long time. We used this wisely and continuously improve our eCanter so that by now, it's a very mature vehicle with a very mature technology and great customer feedback. Let's move on to the next factor on our winning formula, and that is scale. Scale is one of the structural benefits we have as a global leader. And we consistently work on set to make sure we exploit its full potential. We particularly do so with respect to our powertrains as powertrains represent the major share of vehicle cost. Regarding internal combustion engines, we are focusing on captive, high-margin, heavy-duty engines. Here, we have the largest global platform in the industry, and we use it across our brands in all regions. In medium-duty engines, on the other hand, we partner with Cummins, and this frees up capital. Regarding our battery and fuel cell powertrains, we invest with the same focus and efficiency. Also in our zero-emission technologies, we are maximizing commonality and partnerships to take full advantage of our scale. This is a great example how we are constantly thinking of better ways in this respect. And that is the memorandum of understanding we recently signed in Japan. The goal is a merger of Mitsubishi Fuso with Hino Motors, and in addition, a technological collaboration between Daimler Truck and Toyota Motor. This would add significant scale to all relevant propulsion technologies, be it conventional or zero emission. Andreas Gorbach will tell you more about our global technology platforms in his presentation. Before we move on, one last message on my part regarding this topic. Across all segments, our customers can choose from a broad portfolio of zero-emission products already today as most vehicles on this slide are serious vehicles. Tomorrow, this portfolio will be even more comprehensive as shown by the camouflaged vehicles that currently still have project status. Let us now look at our different zero-emission technologies from a customer perspective. Our customers have very different use cases. And for every application, they will pick the best solution. We think that the following technology segmentation will emerge over time. Urban bus and truck transportation with short routes and the possibility of depot charging will use batteries. Long distance transportation will either use fuel cells or batteries. Our customers will make their choice depending on the availability of infrastructure and the total cost of ownership. Infrastructure means hydrogen refueling stations and/or high charging stations. Total cost of ownership will mostly depend on the price of hydrogen versus the price of electricity. Vocational trucks such as an 8x4 dump truck requires significantly more energy for their bodies than for driving. So they will use hydrogen combustion engines. Now you may be surprised that I include hydrogen combustion engines in this overview because so far, our hydrogen strategy has been focusing on fuel cell alone. But we're keeping a very close eye on the discussion about hydrogen combustion engines, and we are in a very good position with this technology. First, we can make use of our enormous experience we have with classic combustion engines. Second, in recent years, we have built up the necessary expertise for potential use with hydrogen. This means we are well prepared. If the hydrogen combustion engine is supported politically for good reasons, because it is a very good CO2-free alternative, then we can act very quickly and offer our customers suitable vehicles. All that comes down to the following. Going forward, our customers around the world can continue to rely 100% on Daimler truck. And if we can continue to make our customers successful we will also continue to be successful ourselves to the benefit of you, our shareholders. Let now here from Till Oberworder, our CEO of Daimler Buses how he is positioning Daimler Buses as a front runner in zero-emission vehicles. Till?
Till Oberworder
executiveHello, and good day, everyone. My name is Till Oberworder, and I'm the CEO of Daimler Buses. Our ambition at Daimler Buses is to lead our industry's transformation towards zero-emission transport. And of course, we work continuously to turn this ambition into reality in all our core markets. Let's have a look at where we stand right now. In Brazil, we launched our electric bus chassis eO500U last year. And in Europe, we are delivering our Mercedes-Benz EC Tower to customers since 2018 already. Our electric city bus comes with many charging and battery options. Only recently, we added another variant to their portfolio, the eCitaro with a fuel cell as a range extender. This bus can operate long routes and seamlessly replace a conventional city bus. Thus, we have a comprehensive portfolio and it matches the different needs of our customers perfectly. And this is reflected in both our sales and orders. Since the start of production, we have sold more than 1,000 units of the eCitaro, and we do have the same figure in our order books. We also see the opportunity to grow our business beyond the vehicle. Having started with e-mobility and infrastructure consulting quite early in 2017, we grew our service portfolio into offering construction site management, depot planning, service team training and the like. And this was very well received by the market. Consequently, we are now establishing Daimler Buses solution, a dedicated unit, which will offer complete turnkey e-systems to our customers. Back to our vehicles, how do we plan to proceed. In the city bus segment in Europe, we will focus on a pure electric strategy. By 2030, we aim to sell only zero-emission vehicles. Starting in the second half of the decade, we plan to offer electric vehicles for the inter-urban bus segment. And by 2030, we plan to have zero-emission coaches ready for the market. This means we are electrifying our entire portfolio across all segments and markets. A few last words on our technology strategy. Just like our truck colleagues, we plan to offer both, battery and hydrogen drive. Accordingly, we intend to share the same technology base, and we will start leveraging these synergies in the second half of this decade. Ladies and gentlemen, there was a short speed date with Daimler Buses. I hope the insights were helpful. Thank you for listening, and goodbye.
Martin Daum
executiveNow I would like to take a step back and look at the overall path to zero-emissions. Not from a Daimler Truck perspective, but from an industry perspective. If we do so, one thing is certain. In the long term, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is inevitable. All trucks and buses will be zero-emission vehicles one day. It is therefore clear where the transformation path leads to. It is less clear, however, which exact course and which exact speed this path will take. This depends on factors that are not at Daimler Trucks control. How quickly battery and hydrogen will replace a diesel engine, for example, depends on regulators. It depends on their willingness to support the operation of zero-emission vehicles and to make the use of diesel-powered vehicles more expensive. It's also difficult to predict how the exact mix of battery and hydrogen will develop. The challenging development of a comprehensive charging infrastructure plays an important role here as do future energy prices. Depending on how the prices for electricity and hydrogen turn out in the future, our customers will rather opt for battery trucks or for fuel cell trucks. There is only one way to successfully master this uncertainty, and that is flexibility. As an OEM, you knew it to be extremely flexible and cost efficient. And this is exactly our approach at Daimler truck. We have leading diesel engines, and we have a dual track, zero-emission strategy with battery and hydrogen. So we have all the technology in stock that is needed for this historic transformation. And we deploy it in a very efficient way. We focus on differentiating technologies. We leverage our global scale, and we engage in strategic partnerships. This means we have the right cost-efficient solutions for different transformation speeds and scenarios. We are able to successfully navigate the uncertain environment going forward. Now that we have dealt with the uncertain transformation path, the question is what are the decisive factors for making zero-emission transport a mass market. Many of you will know that I have a clear formula here. It is a formula with 3 factors, the right product, the right infrastructure and cost parity. These factors are linked in the same way as a multiplication problem. If one factor is 0, the entire result is 0. Sustainable transportation can only be successful if all 3 factors are in place. Customers need to be able to buy the right vehicles and they need to be able to easily charge these vehicles and to earn money with them. The challenge now is to have all 3 factors developing simultaneously. At present, this is not the case. Regarding factor 1, product offering, Daimler Truck and our entire industry are doing great. We are rolling out a great number and a great variety of zero-emission vehicles. So factor 1 is in good shape. I am not worried at all in that regard, especially not for Daimler Truck. But factors 2 and 3 are lagging behind. Regarding infrastructure, a lot obviously needs to be done. A green energy infrastructure is a basis for green transportation but building this infrastructure all the way from energy generation to distribution of energy involves a huge effort. I am confident, however, that we will see infrastructure projects gaining momentum because energy companies are increasingly recognizing attractive business cases. And policymakers are fully aware that infrastructure is key to achieving the ambitious CO2 reduction goals they set in key regions. To help kick things off, we are engaging in several partnerships for green energy infrastructure projects. And as for Factor 3 cost parity, we at Daimler Truck work hard to bring down the cost of zero-emission vehicles. But let me state very clearly. For the foreseeable future, cost parity with conventional vehicles can only be achieved if policymakers are willing to implement the right regulatory framework. Measures are needed such as CO2 pricing, CO2-based tolls or additional taxes on fossil fuels. But again, policymakers are setting ambitious CO2 reduction targets in many key regions, and they are there. They need to back them up with pro zero-emission measures. All in all, I am therefore very confident that all 3 factors will be in place over the coming years. Having said that, it is not a surprise that the transformation will take place at different speeds in different regions. That's because the transformation depends on the 3 factors we just talked about, and they are developing at different speeds around the globe. In North America, for example, we expect ZEV adoption rate for up to 40% in Class 6 to 8 by 2030. In Europe, we expect an adoption rate of up to 60% in the heavy-duty segment. In Europe city bus segment, we expect up to 100%. And in Japan, we see ZEV adoption rates of up to 20% by 2030. So as you can see, there are quite significant differences among the various regions. And that is why, once again, flexibility is key. As an OEM, you have to be able to drive the transformation at different speeds in different regions, and that's exactly what we do. We are driving the transformation, what we call the speed of right. We are ramping up ZEV production in sync with some market momentum. One success factor here is that we are able to produce all our trucks on the same production line, be it diesel, be it battery or be it hydrogen. Our customers, therefore, can be sure that we will be able to deliver the right products with the right volumes at the right point of time to meet their needs. In a minute, Andreas Gorbach will have more details on our technology strategy and how it creates customer value and scale. Let me conclude this topic with an ambitious goal we set ourselves. At Daimler Truck, we have the ambition to be the ZEV leader in most of our focus markets by 2030. This shows very clearly at Daimler truck, we do not see the transformation to zero-emission as a threat. We see it as an opportunity. The next factor of our winning formula is our heavy truck -- heavy-duty focus. Heavy-duty is where we have scale and industry-leading position. And we are executing our active portfolio management to further strengthen this competitive advantage. This is the logic behind the intended merger of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors, so -- that I mentioned earlier. This merger would form a strong player in Southeast Asia and Japan, where both brands have well established positions, and it would accomplish 2 more things in particular. First, the merged company would provide far greater economies of scale in the light-duty segment than Mitsubishi Fuso or Hino can achieve on their own. Second, we as Daimler Truck would further increase the scale of our heavy-duty platforms for conventional drives as for zero-emission drives and even for electronics. This is also due to the planned collaboration with Toyota on all technologies relevant for the transformation, especially on hydrogen-based drive systems. We are working alongside our Japanese partners with a clear goal of implementing this proposed merger by the end of 2024, and we'll provide further updates over the next months. I want to reinforce one last point in this respect. This proposed merger clearly shows that we are willing to take far-reaching strategic decisions to further unlock the potential of Daimler Truck. We do what it takes to achieve our ambitions. But before we continue, let's hear from Karl Deppen, our CEO of Trucks Asia, how he sees our plans for Mitsubishi Fuso and our current business development in Asia.
Karl Deppen
executiveHello. I'm Karl Deppen, Head of Daimler Trucks Asia. Let me tell you how we are contributing to Daimler Trucks transformation for sustainable growth. You all have heard the news about Daimler Trucks plant collaboration with Toyota. With this, we intend to accelerate the development of advanced technologies. We also announced the potential merger of Mitsubishi Fuso with Toyota's subsidiary, Hino Motors. With this exciting move, we aim to bring even better value to our truck customers, to suppliers and dealers and at the same time, safeguard the return to our shareholders in the future. The new company will leverage on its Japanese roots, the Asian heritage and the global reach to tackle the transformation in Asia. On top of significantly increased scale, our combined resources and expertise means that we will be better equipped to offer our customers transportation solutions that meet their needs today and tomorrow. We will be able to invest in the development of even more high-tech products and solutions, especially as we aim to transition to zero-emission vehicles also in Asia. Given the expected growth prospects of our industry, we are confident that this could lead to significant long-term shareholder value. Our operations in India and China will also be instrumental drivers for sustainable growth. In India, BharatBenz continues to grow amongst the competition. Here, we see further strategic potential for the BharatBenz brand and we see potential in India as global hub for R&D services, shared services, IT services and so on for Daimler Trucks worldwide operations. China, the largest heavy-duty truck market in the world offers significant future growth potential for Daimler Truck Asia. We successfully launched on time, the Mercedes-Benz Actros made in China for China under very challenging post-COVID market conditions. Through our joint venture, BFDA, we are confident to meet our customers' expectations in the advanced heavy-duty truck market. We are excited and confident for the future to grasp the opportunities ahead of us and to elevate Daimler Truck Asia to the next level.
Martin Daum
executiveThe next winning factor where we have a very strong position is autonomous. All of us at Daimler Truck are excited about the huge potential of this technology. We're convinced that autonomous trucking can become a rapidly growing high-margin business that solves real customer problems. And that is not a vague scenario for some distant future. It is a very concrete scenario for the second half of this decade. Used cases are most obvious today in large uniform on-highway markets such as North America. As Daimler Truck, we are in a perfect position to play a major role in this market through our dual track strategy. We have a captive solution through Torc Robotics and a non-captive solution with Waymo. Our Torc solution is a fully integrated product with a virtual driver on board and optimized for hub-to-hub tracking. You can see one of the trucks of Torc's test fleet here right next to me. Waymo on the other hand, indicates its virtual driver technology into the chassis we provide. The same basis for both solutions is our redundant autonomous-ready Freightliner chassis. The great thing about this dual track approach is this. It benefits our customers as they have maximum flexibility. And it benefits Daimler Truck because we have 2 very promising ways into this very attractive market of the future. Let's now take a quick look at the progress we are making with our Torc solution. We are advancing very well in every aspect of this great and complex mission. We are continuously expanding the capabilities of our virtual driver. We do that through internal growth, but also with the acquisition of Algolux, a specialist for object recognition based on artificial intelligence. Torc is set to start testing our industry-first autonomous-ready Cascadia, and together, we focus on developing the vehicle platform for its commercial launch. We have ongoing pilot tests with Schneider and [indiscernible] to major U.S. carriers and our trucks are doing great. 100% on-time deliveries and 0 accidents. Last but not least, we are taking Torc's organization to the next level by building out its executive leadership team and by growing talent in key areas. So much on my part on autonomous driving and how we intend to take advantage of the enormous potential there in autonomous transportation to the benefits of our customers and our shareholders. Jochen Goetz will explain later how autonomous trucking offers an additional opportunity for our 2030 ambition. Let's conclude this topic with the perspective of Joanna Buttler, Head of our Autonomous Technology Group; and Peter Vaughan Schmidt, CEO of Torc Robotics. So let's roll the video. [Presentation]
Martin Daum
executiveWe now come to the final factor of our winning formula, and that is ESG. ESG adds further momentum to our sustainable transformation. Our ESG framework is becoming more and more integrated into our group and our strategy and first and foremost, into our culture, our daily work. There are concrete measures and achievements in every part of this framework. Just a few examples. Regarding clean products, we already talked about our ever-increasing zero-emission portfolio. Regarding green production, our green production sites have already achieved CO2 neutrality last year, in part by sourcing electricity from solar, wind and hydro power plants. We're aiming to make our plants in the U.S., Japan and India CO2 neutral by 2025. Regarding the green supply chain, Mercedes-Benz Truck strives to handle delivery traffic to its largest truck plant in Woerth, Germany entirely with the CO emission vehicles as soon as possible. Regarding our people, we want to be an employer of choice and foster a sense of belonging for all employees. We set up diversity, equity and inclusion advisory boards to help us with this journey. Regarding compliance, we launched our Daimler Truck code of conduct and have enrolled it across all our global organizations by the end of 2022 already. And regarding traffic safety, this has been in our DNA for decades. In terms of safety, we have regularly set industry -- regularly set industry standards. Europe is usually the front runner. And we then roll out new systems around the globe at record speeds. All our trucks in here today are perfect examples for how we bring leading safety systems to [indiscernible]. I want to mention a few features. Our Western Star 57 and our Freightliner eCascadia, for example, are equipped with our Active Brake Assist 5. This system is able to detect moving and stationary objects and to determine if braking is necessary. Our Super Truck too has a mirror-less camera system instead of the usual big mirrors. This significantly increases the driver's visibility and hereby also safety. Finally, our autonomous ready Cascadia represents a future of traffic safety. Autonomous trucking will not only take efficiency to the next level, it will do the same with safety. First, autonomous trucks will have redundant systems. And secondly, the virtual driver will never get tired and never lose focus. In sum, we remain fully committed to ESG and we are proud that we achieved good results in all relevant sustainable ratings. Toward the end of my presentation, I now have a great finale for you. So far, you have been aware of our ambition to deliver at least 10% return on sales in signing conditions by 2025. But now you have heard how confident we are as Daimler Truck about our continued transformation path as we're heading in the second half of this decade. I now want to put a figure on this confidence. We are confident that by 2030, we can achieve a return of sales of 12% and more. This figure is a result of diligent calculations and planning. We included everything we are planning for in this coming years in terms of measures, products and solutions. 12% ROS means we are ready to take Daimler Truck to a new next level. This is all more true as we expect our revenue to increase significant in parallel by about 40% to 60%. And both figures increased significantly -- and with those figures increasing significantly, revenue and return on sales, our EBIT should increase very significantly. I think all of this clearly shows we are very serious about unlocking our profit potential, and we are very well underway. We are fully committed to make Daimler Truck, an even more profitable company generating even more value for our shareholders. In conclusion, let me briefly summarize. The many things we have going on a Daimler Truck. We are making our company more resilient to our self hub measures, our services and our customer solutions. We are creating shareholder value through our flexible approach to ZEV ramp-up and through active portfolio management. We are increasing our guidance for 2023. We are firmly on track to deliver 10% ROS and more by 2025, and we will not stop there. We will develop an even more ambitious plan for 2030 and we're going for that at full speed. We are fully committed to capturing all opportunities associated with the historic transition to zero emissions. As you can see, this is a very special time for Daimler Truck. It is a very special time to be leading such a great business. It is a perfect time to transform Daimler Truck for sustainable growth to the benefit of our customers and our shareholders. Thank you very much. And now over to you, Andreas.
Andreas Gorbach
executiveYes. Thank you, Martin. Welcome also from my side. I'm glad to be here today to provide you an update on Daimler Trucks technology strategy. Within our last Capital Market Days, I already laid out the strategy and the transformation plans for Daimler Truck. Today, I will provide you an update on how we progress and how this can improve the business of our customers while we become more sustainable and profitable. At the end of the day, the success of our customers is the core of our success. If technology creates value for their business, they win and we win. So let us start with the voice of a very special customer. Mark Rourke, President and CEO of Schneider. [Presentation]
Andreas Gorbach
executiveMark is absolutely right. I highly appreciate the clear statements. This is exactly what we aim for. Technology in a truck always has the purpose to create value for our customers. to increase the value of the asset called truck in their books. This is how we tick along the complete value chain. This is how we plan, innovate engineer, purchase, produce, sell and service. We do not build to build, we build to solve. Be it in the long-haul truck in the U.S., the city bus in Sao Paulo, the mining truck in Indonesia, the vocational truck in China or the heavy-duty construction or distribution truck in Europe, the success of our customers translates into the success of Daimler Truck and thus, ultimately, into shareholder value. Yet there is another important lever to do so. Technology also allows Daimler Truck to create scale, be it in our global vehicle portfolio or be it with partners, we aim to combine both with our technology strategy, value creation for our customers and creating scale for us, such that we leverage best technology to create shareholder value. Now the 2 technology fields that fit best to these attributes which provide the highest differentiation to the customer and the biggest scales for us are 2. On the one side, the propulsion system, the power to drive. And on the other side, it is everything related to electronics and software, the intelligence to drive. Both have an impact on every puzzle piece of the total cost of ownership equation of the customer. And both can be developed once and then deployed in all products of Daimler Truck and beyond. Now how to approach this? The answer lies in 4 global platforms. For power to drive, we will continue to offer the best total cost of ownership with the best technology fit depending on the transportation task and ecosystem, be it diesel, battery or hydrogen power drives. For Intelligence to drive, we will continue to differentiate with software, which is delivered rapidly with high quality and tailor-made for the use case. All platforms are based on a commonality concept, to scale in our trucks over different brands and regions and carry the potential to be shared with partners that scale even beyond Daimler Truck. Let us go through the platforms one by one and start with the one which laid the foundation of the company's success over the last century, and that is diesel. We have just completed the rollout of our latest generation heavy-duty diesel platform worldwide, which provides yet another efficiency push on CO2 reduction. And we are already working on the next evolution to come in the second half of the decade. We are convinced that during this decade, many transportation tasks on this planet will still depend on diesel as long as the infrastructure and the ecosystem and the economic viability are not given for zero emission. Until then, we want these transportation tasks to be solved with the cleanest and most efficient diesel propulsion. So we give the heavy-duty diesel platform yet another efficiency push, and it will certainly comply with the upcoming emission regulations. Nevertheless, and irrespective of speed with decarbonization of transportation, diesel volumes will eventually decline. Thus, it is even more important than before to prioritize capital allocation and to create scale whenever there is an opportunity. Like I announced last time, and like Martin said, we disinvest on the medium-duty side by leveraging our partnership with Cummins. This is ongoing. We will not invest in our captive medium-duty product for upcoming emission steps. Last time, we also announced that on the heavy-duty side, we are actively searching for partners to scale on our platform. Today, we already have 3 opportunities to do so. First, we started the localization via our JV with Foton in China, such that the localized resides truck will also enable to scale with the propulsion system in China. So this is growth in our own portfolio. Second, our partnership with Deutz enable scaling into segments beyond our core truck business. The third opportunity builds upon our global diesel platform by burning hydrogen instead of diesel. And I will talk about this later. And we are convinced that this list of opportunities will continue. To sum it up, our strategy for diesel is clear. We focus on the profitable heavy-duty segment while continuously consolidating in the ramp down. Moving now to the time in the aftermath of diesel. Moving to zero-emission propulsion systems. As you already know, we strongly believe that there will be not just a one-size-fits-all approach anymore. We do strongly believe in the complement of battery and hydrogen. And to better understand this, let me offer you 3 perspectives. The first perspective is the technical view, the engineering and yes, technically, one can solve all transportation tasks with just one technology. It could be either battery or hydrogen, truly with some quite heavy trade-offs as for payload packaging range, but technically, it's feasible. The second perspective is already much more important, the customer view. If we talk to the customers around the globe, they confirm, it depends. And you know how professional they are and how they calculate to gain every cent.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeThat's 1 technology. It could be either battery or hydrogen, truly with some quite heavy trade-offs as for payload packaging range, but technically, it's feasible. The second perspective is already much more important. The customer view. If we talk to the customers around the globe, they confirm it depends. And you know how professional they are and how they calculate to get every cent. Depending on the use case, the relevance of payload and range, the energy cost, the infrastructure, the regulations, the whole ecosystems, sometimes battery and sometimes hydrogen will be the better choice in terms of total cost of ownership, in terms of the economic optimum. By the way, I see often quotes referring to the energy efficiency of battery versus hydrogen in the truck. And yes, battery vehicles have a better energy conversion in the truck itself. This is the correct answer yet to the wrong question. For the answer to the right question, what's best for the customer and the environment, this gives you only a small puzzle piece, but certainly not the complete picture. This brings me to the third and maybe most important perspective, the infrastructure view. And here, we talk 2 things, the charging itself, the hardware and the availability of energy in general. Let us look at the latter one and take Europe as an example. Today, Europe imports approximately 60% of its energy, not electricity, energy, and it is done mainly by oil, gas and coal. This has to go away as we decarbonize. Now we have 2 options to do so. Number one, we replace it by locally-produced green energy, clear message. This is not possible unless we switch to massive nuclear power. And while this is partially happening, it's fair to conclude that it might rather partially substitute locally produce gray energy, but never the complete import. -- leaves us with number two. We import green energy. In many countries, many regions are in the very same situation like Europe. So as a matter of fact, also in a decarbonized world, we will trade energy on global scale like we do it today. And certainly, it's not going to be electricity. We need a chemical bond CO2-neutral energy carrier. We need molecules to store and transport and green hydrogen is one very good way to do so. Hence, to comply with the Paris accord, we anyhow need green hydrogen irrespective of mobile devices and irrespective of transportation and at large scale at competitive cost, and there is enough sun and water to do so. So to sum it up, if both battery electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles are technically feasible, if there are clear cases where one or the other offers better profit for the customer and if both energy sources are anyhow required, it becomes evident. Why we do both? Now before we look at the battery in hydrogen solutions in more detail, let us first elaborate on the time dimension. In that regard, Martin already showed 2 things. First, the speed is rather uncertain and depending on external parameters like infrastructure and energy prices. Second, the product will not be the limiting factor, and we already have a broad portfolio of better electric vehicles in our core markets on the road. All these vehicles are so far based on upscaling Paris accord technology, which is the right thing to do in order to be fast to market for [indiscernible] volumes. Today, we benefit from scale of the Paris accord business that decarbonizes earlier. These trucks already create customer value, like Mark described in his video. The time for larger volumes and global truck scale will come in the second half of the decade. And this will certainly require and justify dedicated purpose-built platforms without compromises. Then we merged all the learnings from the early 0 emission phase with our truck know-how of the last 100 years. The upcoming launch of the eActros 600 next year is exemplary for this first step into this era on the battery side. Thereafter, we will roll out a trackified modular global platform, and I will talk about this in a minute. In parallel, we will start the rollout of our first hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by roughly 28 with a platform that we share even beyond Daimler Truck, and I will talk about this in a minute as well. Now let us double-click on the future battery platform and start with the customer. Certainly, there are many different cell chemistries and concepts on the market and in development and they all have their individual trade-offs and sweet spots. Thereby, looking at the specific requirements of a truck, it is not the highest energy density and not the best driving dynamics that are decisive, but rather high vehicle lifetime, safety and costs. So for example, if you were to choose between NMC and LFP like depicted here, the LFP family is clearly more favorable for truck use cases. With an intelligent pack design, one can even overcompensate the disadvantages of LFP as for energy density on cell level. In addition, the pack needs to be modular. It needs a tailored-vehicle integration. It needs to be optimized for the transportation task and still provide scale. This is why we decided to strive for vertical integration. The intelligent integration of cells and battery management in a pack and packs in a truck is key, not only for customer value, but also for scale. With one global pack platform and one global cell family, we aim to cover more than 80% of our heavy-duty and medium-duty portfolio worldwide. Thereby, we aim to leverage different sources to comply with local content requirements and to balance dependencies. The required partnerships are already in place or being set up with [indiscernible] we have the right partnership for machinery equipment. With CATL, we have a strategic partnership for cell sourcing, and we are about to finalize a partnership that we aim to announce soon. This partnership will focus on jointly localizing cells in the U.S. So stay tuned on that one. As for the fuel cell platform, we have today significantly less vehicles on the road, a conscious decision as we expect infrastructure to develop slower than electric charging. However, our experience is huge. It is based on almost 30 years of R&D and small series projects. Therefore, we combined all the know-how of the Daimler Group of the Daimler Group within the Truck division [indiscernible]. The time and knowledge -- the time and knowledge allows us to trackify the fuel cell system from the get-go. Also here, the requirements for launch with efficiency and cost led to a different design and concept compared to passenger cars. And also here, commonality and partnerships are of essence. Our JV with Volvo is gaining more and more traction. Cell-centric will provide an unmatched system tailor-made for the trucking application. And by the way, there is no limitation as for other customers. And we aim to use the product in all brands. Mercedes trucks are already on the road. The first Cascada is about to be built up as a prototype, and there is even more to say about hydrogen. You might have noticed that lately we more and more talk about battery and hydrogen power solutions rather than battery and fuel cell electric solutions. And that's because there's a thing we have not been vocal about yet, and that's the hydrogen combustion engine. So far, this technology has an unclear regulatory status in many regions of the world. However, discussions are progressing and some regulators aim to classify it as 0 emission or 0 carbon as they well understand both the economic and geopolitical chances associated with it on the one side, and it's negligible impact to the environment on the other side. From a technical perspective, the hydrogen combustion engine is a slightly modified diesel combustion engine, while the rest of the drivetrain remains the same. Thus, it provides both customer value and scale. On the one side, the customer benefits from similar packaging, similar payload compared to diesel and the low vehicle price compared to battery or fuel cell power trucks. This can be more important for the customer than energy consumption, for example, in applications that have high power demand, moderate mileage and packaging constraints or special bodybuilder requirements. On the other side, we benefit from scale, most relevant core engine parts, assets and established suppliers are the same as for diesel. And the infrastructure can be the same as for fuel cell. We are prepared to change gears here from advanced engineering to series development, thereby partnering does make sense as well, and it is already in the making. As Martin explained earlier, depending on the final rule making, hydrogenize can be a third complement in the future of propulsion resulting in one pure electric and two hydrogen-powered solutions. Irrespective of the technology choice, one thing is clear. With 0 emission, the increase in cost of a truck is here to stay. Let me better explain this with the walk from a diesel truck in this example, a battery electric truck. First, we remove all diesel components like engine system, transmission-driven axle tank and instead include the electric drivetrain and further electric components like converters or charging units. Depending on the transportation task, the cost already can increase slightly or significantly. For example, if 2 electric [indiscernible] instead of one are required. Second, we at the battery pack itself. Again, the increase strongly depends on the transportation cost. In this case, mainly range. Do we talk 100 miles or 300 miles range. Do we talk 200 kilowatt hours or 600 kilowatt hours battery size? -- but 2 general statements can be made. First, we have to continue to focus on reducing cost of e-drive and battery by intelligent design and scale; second, and as already said, the increase in cost is here to stay. So how will this affect our customers? How will it affect total cost of ownership, TCO. Let us focus first on the bars in the middle. This is how today, the majority of TCO cases look like when we compare diesel with ZEV. Cost of the driver stays the same. Repair and maintenance can be expected on high level. No surprise. Sure, as just described, with the increase in purchase price, the depreciation part of the TCO calculation has to go up. Then comes the biggest and yet most uncertain part, cost of energy. Clearly, it again varies with the transportation task and the mileage. Yet the even bigger uncertainty comes with the energy price itself. And today, without subsidies in many regions of the world, this leads to a higher TCO if we compare 0-emission with diesel. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the biggest inhibitor for zero-emission truck sales. Or in other words, achieving TCO parity is the biggest sensitivity whether zero-emission trucking creates value for our customers or not. And as a result, it is the single biggest lever to change the speed of decarbonization and it is and will be mainly driven by cost of energy. The cost of green energy needs to go down and/or the cost for CO2 has to go up. Like Martin explained in his multiplication, we need the ZEV products, yes, our job. And also we need a viable economic case for our customers. And then comes to the third factor of the multiplication and this is infrastructure. So to conclude, with zero-mission propulsion, let me shortly elaborate on the multitude of initiatives and partnerships that we push in order to help solving the chicken and egg problem. In every market in which we already sell electric vehicles, we offer our customers consulting to find the best solution for the zero-emission ecosystem, including the respective charging hardware for their depots for which we have multiple partners. As for roadside charging and refueling, we are investing together with partners in 2 joint ventures: Milence in Europe, together with Traton and Volvo, Greenlane in the U.S., together with NextEra and BlackRock. Both certainly not enough to build a complete required amount of stations, but enough to kick-start roadside charging and hydrogen refueling. Beyond that, we build on several other partnerships, to develop technologies, to agree on standards and to create showcases that one can copy. It is clear that we will not become an energy provider by doing so. But to make the transformation to zero-emission a reality, it needs a strong initial push to create momentum and to lay the foundation for it's acceptance, and we are committed to contribute. With that, we move our attention from the power to drive to the intelligence to drive. Our global software and electronic platform is the energy agnostic foundation for the intelligent and efficient operation of all vehicles. Let me start with the generic layers of that platform. On top, there is the application layer, which is the layer visible to the customer. It contains all kinds of features, for example, safety functions. This is where differentiation happens where we create customer value, either by improving the product itself or by improving the business system of the customer. For Daimler Truck, we aim to scale here in 2 dimensions. First, we can develop apps once and then deploy in our complete new vehicle portfolio. And second, with over-the-air capability, we can also deploy it to trucks already on the road. The middle layer is the operating system, the system software that manages both computing hardware and software resources and provides common services and APIs for applications. The bottom layer is the computing hardware itself, the control units. And the last 2 layers stay invisible for the customer. They must run stable, but they do not offer differentiation with features, yet they can offer massive scale as they can be harmonized in our complete portfolio. Now to add a little bit more color to this, let me give you an overview on what we will launch starting '24. Starting next year, we will roll out numerous next evolution vehicle applications. For example, next level active safety was the active [indiscernible] not only warning, but actively breaking. So if, for example, a cyclist is in the vehicle's blind spot while turning. Next Level, Digital HMI with speech control and full integration of Android auto-enabled carplay. Next level connectivity features for fleet on a data access, predictive maintenance and advanced ODR updates. All these features are enabled by an upgrade of the most relevant computing units. That means we do a big step in CPU power and bandwidth. Certainly, this evolution will make our trucks ready for what's on the horizon this decade, ready for next level of cybersecurity, ready for the next generation of zero-emission trucks and not to forget, ready for autonomous driving. But the vision goes even one step further. It is likely that also in trucking, software will be eventually the #1 differentiator to create customer value. Key will be to deliver software rapidly with high quality and tailor-made to the use case. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to make the truck a programmable device. The key lever that we pull to get there is completely decoupling the 3 layers. So the applications can run on a standard OS connector with standard API. By that, development of product and business improvements can be done in fast software cycles by us or third parties and then flushed over the air. On the hardware side, the evolution continues to a more centralized, powerful, high compute architecture. By that, the scales on the OS and hardware side can go even beyond Daimler Truck, and hence, partnerships can play an important role here as well. Let me summarize how we will elevate Daimler Trucks technology leadership. We continue to keep diesel competitive and clean while focusing on the high-profit heavy-duty segment. We decarbonized our portfolio with battery electric and hydrogen power drives. We digitalized all vehicles and make them a smartphone on wheels. And by all that, we create customer value by translating purpose-built technology into TCO. We create scale for Daimler Truck through maximum commonality and strong partnerships, and we create shareholder value. and keep the world moving. Thank you. And with this, I hand over to Jochen.
Jochen Goetz
executiveThanks, Andreas. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome from me as well. As Martin outlined in his opening presentation, we are underway to achieve our midterm financial ambition of above 10% adjusted return on sales for the industrial business in sunny conditions. And we see further potential to uplift profitability above 12% in 2030. Before we start, one important piece of information regarding the upcoming financials. You all have seen the announcement at the end of May about the memorandum of understanding with Toyota to merge Mitsubishi, Fuso and Hino motors. This deal is yet to close. And therefore, all of the financial analysis and metrics are based on the current structure of Daimler Trucks. All potential synergies of this merger are not included in the numbers we will show. Here is an overview on how we will leverage financial strength going forward. There are 5 important chapters. First, our core momentum is strong. And based on that, we have upgraded our '23 guidance. Second, we are relentlessly focused on our self-help measures, which will ensure that we will deliver on our '25 ambition, and we will deliver. Third, we will take advantage of growth opportunity in both existing and new businesses such as ATV and autonomous. Fourth, our active portfolio management and return on capital steering model will ensure that we only commit capital to attractive products and growth opportunities as well as excess businesses where we cannot achieve our return on capital hurdle rates. While the path towards ZEV transmission -- transition remains uncertain, we are ready to maximize the opportunities as they become possible. And fifth, our business will remain highly cash generative. And our already strong balance sheet will allow us to pay attractive dividends and return excess cash to shareholders via share buybacks. And with that, we remain totally committed to driving shareholder value. In sum, these factors should enable us to grow our business significantly with a revenue increase of 40% to 60% from '25 to 2030 and to capture growth opportunities that led to an adjusted return on sales ambition of above 12% for the industrial business in sunny conditions. So there's a lot of good news and there are a lot of great things ahead. Now I will walk you through the details of this road map, and I will start with the update of the market assumptions and the guidance of '23. Demand has continued to stay strong, and we expect this to continue during 2023. As we had anticipated, the supply constraints that are very challenging over the last 2 years have steadily been improving. While supply isn't yet back to normal, we see now compared to the end of the first quarter, a more stable outlook for the rest of the year. As a consequence, we were upgrading our market expectations for our core markets. For North America, we now expect the market of 290,000 to 330,000 units. For Europe, we now expect a market of 300,000 to 340,000 units. Taking these new market expectations, how does this impact our '23 financial guidance? Today, we are increasing our sales ambition to a range of 530,000 to 550,000 units with the extra sales mainly coming from Europe and Asia. In consequence, our group revenue guidance increases to EUR 56 billion to EUR 58 billion. For the Industrial business, our adjusted return on sales guidance increases to a range of 8.5% to 10% backed by all industrial segments. The main drivers are stronger core markets, pricing and services. Our CapEx and R&D guidance has been changed to a slight increase for the year. We have tweaked up transformational spend and investments in our IT landscape. Nevertheless, free cash flow generation will still be stronger than expected and is now guided to increase significantly. For our active portfolio management, we are demonstrating our capital discipline and converting higher EBIT into higher free cash flow. Now let's look at the segment level. We are increasing the guidance of adjusted return on sales on each industrial segment. So as Martin already mentioned, we planned with the following adjusted return on sales ranges for our segments. 11% to 13% for Trucks North America, 8% to 10% for Mercedes-Benz, 4% to 6% for Trucks Asia and 3% to 5% for Daimler Buses. The guidance for Financial Services remains unchanged. We obviously don't have final Q2 numbers. However, based on the better-than-expected supply chain situation and the positive results we've seen in April and May, we expect a strong second quarter. This underpins our confidence in raising our full year '23 guidance today. To sum it up, the guidance for '23 shows we are clearly delivering positive momentum towards our ambition. The further execution of our self-help measures is key to achieve our ambition. I will talk more about it on the next page. Let me briefly talk about Truck Asia. As you know, Truck Asia consists of Mitsubishi Fuso our operations in India and our joint venture, BFDA in China. We are currently facing a really depressed market situation in China. And that's the reason why we have a quite big gap compared to our '25 sunny ambition. Our Mitsubishi Fuso operations are on track to achieve the ambition. Regarding Daimler Buses, keep in mind, the European [ coal market ] is still on a rather low market level compared to 2019. But we see clear signs of recovery towards '24 volume and profitability-wise. To achieve our '25 ambition, the focus areas are service push and further fixed cost optimization. If the favorable market conditions and higher demand and supply continue towards '25, we see further upside potential. Now let's talk about our self-help measures. As already announced at our last Capital Market Day, our '25 ambitions are based on 3 self-help measures. That does not mean we are not going for opportunities on the market side, but we want to improve our financial resilience and prioritize financial rigor and strict discipline on things we can control. However, as you all know, some of the ambitions are easier to achieve than others. On service revenues, we are making excellent progress. We already achieved 15% growth between '19 and '22. We have done this by exploiting our existing after-service business and by tapping into new service opportunities. One example is our e-commerce platform at Daimler Trucks North America. Here, we reached already USD 1 billion in revenue. We are even more confident that we will exceed our 20% growth ambitions by '25 and upgrade our growth ambition to 25%. On fixed costs, we have made good progress, and it has been very encouraging to see good results in several areas of Daimler Truck. However, as we said back at our full year results disclosure, we are not fully satisfied with what we have achieved and are focusing on implementing further initiatives to ensure that we deliver on our 15% fixed cost reduction target. On CapEx and R&D efficiency, we are on track. We are laser-focused on only investing on key projects and prioritizing large profit pool opportunities within each segment. Our active portfolio management approach is clearly helping to maintain this discipline. And our use of partnerships for powertrains has ensured the right level of investment by Daimler Truck. Our underlying capital plan is on track to achieve our ambition in '25. We will see some onetime investment in logistic infrastructure at Mercedes-Benz in '24 mainly related to the spin-off. We've got good progress on service revenue and disciplined CapEx and R&D, we are doubling down our effort on fixed cost. The entire group is committed to achieve the 50% reduction ambition until '25. We have faced challenges in fixed costs, partly due to new functions capabilities, we created as part of our separation from the passenger car business. On this slide, you see the major initiatives that have already cut costs in the past and it will also cut costs in the future. As you see in the numbers, active portfolio management is a major tool also for reducing fixed costs. We already achieved a lot and we are planning to reduce our fixed cost even further. Examples are the restructuring of Mercedes-Benz to Fuso or the relocation of our [indiscernible] shop from Germany to Czech Republic at Daimler Buses. With that, we are continuously reducing complexity and focus on big profit pools. We recently announced our latest decision to sell 1 of our 3 Brazilian plants in Campinas. To reduce running SG&A costs, we leveraged our global footprint, including India, Turkey and Mexico. and bundled service operations in competent centers. But we also think beyond and make use of outsourced shared services, for example, in the accounting and controlling area. With the project IT Tech Lead strategy, we made a -- within Mercedes Benz, we are increasing our efficiency and optimizing our footprint in all areas. One example is the sales organization where we analyze our European retail network with the aim to invest in strategic locations and divest less profitable ones. We are also evaluating on a global level in which markets we keep our already successful -- now we're doubling down on increasing our resilience. We know we're in a cyclical industry, and we want to be sure that we're prepared to perform even in a weaker market. So we're doing 2 major things. First, we're growing our service business. In 2022, the service revenue, we've put a lot of focus on our top 400 spare parts assortment and we see that we have increased the availability and that drives both parts sales and customer satisfaction. The second topic we're working on, you just learned from Jochen and we remain fully committed to reducing our fixed costs by 15% at group level by 2025. And of course, at Mercedes-Benz Trucks, we're a major contributor to that. And to name a few initiatives, we are restructuring, Mercedes-Benz to Brazil. There, we are outsourcing noncore activities like, [indiscernible] medium-duty transmissions, logistics, et cetera, at our factory in Sao Bernardo do Campo. And this is obviously not an easy task. These measures actually affect 1,750 employees, and we're also not renewing the contracts of approximately 1,000 temporary employees. We're also working on our fixed cost at all levels in all functions in all regions with the ultimate goal to become more resilient. This is a priority for me, for the Mercedes-Benz Trucks team and for Daimler Truck as a whole. And we will deliver and we will become more resilient. All the mentioned self-help measures helped us to improve our financial resilience to lower our breakeven point and to become more profitable at lower volumes. Trucks and buses are a cyclical industry, and we want to be ready for the next downturn. We want to protect our cash flow, remain able to finance our growth and provide returns to our shareholders. As you can see on the slide, focus has been strong. If there had been a rainy scenario in 2019, meaning a significant lower market volume, we would have achieved 0.8% adjusted return on sales for the Industrial business. In 2022, the same reduced volume would have resulted in 4% adjusted return on sales for the industrial business. This is already a big step in the right direction, but there is more to come to achieve more than 6% adjusted return on sales in such an environment. So much for the current status of our '25 plan and the significant progress we have made towards achieving our ambitions. Now I want to share how we are thinking about Daimler Truck and our financial performance towards 2030. Looking beyond '25, we see multiple growth opportunities in our industry, and we are fully equipped to exploit these opportunities. This would translate into a 40% to 60% increase in revenues between '25 and 2030. At the same time, we will be relentlessly focused on cost discipline and capital allocation. I'm all aware that at this stage, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future penetration rate and technology mix of zero emission technologies. We at Daimler Truck are well prepared for any scenario and we can use our size for scale advantages and flexibility. We see 6 main revenue drivers for Daimler Truck and in the next few minutes, I will guide you through one by one. The first reason for a growing revenue from '25 to 2030 are the grown markets. For our core markets in North America and Europe, we are expecting moderate growth driven by a solid economic development and the demand for efficient transportation solutions. The change to environmentally friendly vehicles as well as infrastructure investments give additional tailwind for the market growth. Brazil is expected to see a market growth rate approximately twice that of North America and Europe. The solid trade activity, agricultural demand and investment growth has a positive impact on the Brazilian truck demand. India, we see significant total truck market volume increases. India's truck market benefits from high GDP growth, improvement in the road infrastructure and an ongoing sophistication of the economy. The second driver for an increase in revenue from '25 to '30 is our share of market ambition. As you all know, we have [indiscernible] the historical focus on volume growth and gaining market share. Therefore, we assume that the share of market stays more or less flat in the main regions, except North America, India and Japan. Here, we are confident to increase our market share based on our product strategy. In North America, we've increased our competitive offering in the heavy-duty vocational segment, as you see on the left side. With the introduction of all our new Western Star family, we are well positioned to capture considerably more share in the promising vocational market. In India, we are aiming to be a podium player in the Indian heavy-duty truck industry by strengthening our core portfolio, we further improved safety, reliability and performance. With more than 300 dealerships and 400 suppliers generating a localization rate of 90%, India is strategically placed to support Daimler Truck in terms of domestic sales and as an export hub. In Japan, we are committed to further promoting the electrification of commercial vehicles in order to decarbonize road transportation in Asia and beyond. Mitsubishi Fuso is a pioneer in e-mobility with [indiscernible] and it's ecosystem. And now John will provide you more insights in our Trucks North America business.
Unknown Executive
executiveHi. I'm John O'Leary, President and CEO of Daimler Truck North America, the undisputed market leader here in North America. DTNA's continued successes, in large part, a result of our absolute dedication to delivering customer-focused products and services. When it comes to our on-highway products like our flagship Freightliner Cascadia, we understand this intimately. And it's why that business has been so successful. To replicate that success, we recently introduced the Western Star X Series, which is off to a strong start in the highly profitable and less cyclical vocational market. In addition, we updated our Freightliner M2 and SD lines with the new plus series of models last year. These trucks bring enhanced safety and productivity tools to the applications they serve and cover both vocational and on-highway segments. The M2 also forms the basis of our EM 2, which entered serious production later this year and joins the Freightliner eCascadia already in customer operations. And those trucks are 1/2 of the DTNA electric portfolio which also includes the Thomas-built Buses Julie and the Freightliner Custom Chassis, MT50e walk-in van chassis for final mile delivery. Both our growing electric and vocational lineup allows us to not nearly defend but also to expand on our undisputed market leadership, leaving us well positioned as we continue to strive leading sustainable transportation here in North America. A significant revenue growth driver to 2030 are the new vehicles that are positively impacted by a series of structural tailwinds for the group. [indiscernible] sales will increase in absolute terms and as a percentage of our total unit sales. These products will have a higher revenue per unit, but we expect them to be still favorable from a total cost of ownership perspective for our customers. This, of course, depends on energy prices and whereas, obviously, from segment to segment and region to region. Our ongoing pivot towards heavy-duty will also have a positive impact on average selling prices. Another very important driver is service revenue. Further increasing our service is a key lever to improve our resilience and delivering a high return on capital employed. We've already made progress -- excellent progress since 2019 and are setting the ambition to increase service revenue for industrial business without autonomous by 50% from '25 to 2030. To be clear, on a definition, service revenue excludes financial services and autonomous. We group our service revenue opportunities in 3 main businesses. First, the service and parts business remain the most important lever for our service revenue increase. We tackled the market by expanding our product portfolio and optimizing our service network. Key levers include the intelligent pricing of parts, further increasing the penetration of service contracts, including a higher technical coverage. Additionally, with the increasing number of connected trucks, we now, for the first time in a meaningful way, have also access to the second owners of the truck. Last but not least, we are optimizing our logistics and build up a new global logistic hub in Halberstadt, Germany, which will be significantly improved parts availability from [indiscernible] and improves uptime for our trucks. Second, [indiscernible] ecosystem. This includes everything around charging, infrastructure, installation, consulting and charging management system. We recently established for an example, in Daimler Buses, a new legal entity to consult our customers holistically on how to set up the [indiscernible] ecosystem. Third, digital services. This includes fleet management, reutilization and tailored customer solutions. To name one example, we built the e-commerce platform Excelerator at Daimler Truck North America, which connects our customers to our distribution network and ensures easy and fast access to parts. This leads to a maximum uptime for our customers. We see that the growing number of parts are being ordered online, and we plan for a growing usage of our e-commerce platform. Daimler Truck sees a huge opportunity in autonomous trucking, and we will tap into this opportunity with our majority stake in Torc and our strong cooperation with Waymo. Important to mention that both virtual drivers are based on the same DD&A we've done in chassis. We currently expect to start generating revenue in '27 and to reach significant figures pretty fast. By 2030, we expect revenues of over EUR 3 billion and an EBIT of over EUR 1 billion. The software-driven business is a highly scalable and highly profitable market opportunity for Daimler Truck. With our dual-track approach, we believe we are well positioned to take advantage of this exciting market. A key underpinning of our service strategy is the ongoing ramp-up of our financial services business. We expect significant growth of our asset base within Financial Services. Revenue is expected to double between '25 and '30 , driven by the following aspects. We increased our penetration of the existing product portfolio and extend our product portfolio. For an example, we introduced pay-per-use dynamic lease and ensuring solutions that adapt to changing customer needs and [ weighing ] the technologies. As the market shifts towards [indiscernible], we have an opportunity to offer bundled products and solutions that cover not only the vehicles themselves, but also the necessary infrastructure and add-on services like charging. One example is our solution, FUSO Green Lease that we offer to eCanter customers in Japan. In addition, we will provide full-service solutions, including vehicle rental, maintenance, telematics and fleet management. And now Stephan is going to give you more insights in our financial services business.
Unknown Executive
executiveHello. I'm Stephan Unger, CEO of Daimler Truck Financial Services, and we drive enduring customer relationships. We are fully on track to develop DTFS from a pure financial services company to a solution partner for our customers with a position of differentiation and cost leadership. Our service strategy aims on accelerating our successful core business of traditional leasing, financing and insurance products. We will provide new and additional solutions, for example, integrating services from all parties into bundles offering full service and rental solutions or as some say, truck as a service. We are as well adding solutions around connectivity and sustainable transportation, like dynamic lease, green lease or e-infrastructure financing. We at DTFS carry risk and to make our business robust also in times of changing economic conditions, we build on our strengths. We actively manage our risk position to support our A credit rating target. We aim to deliver a sustainable return on equity of above 14% by 2025 in sunny conditions, ensuring attractive profitability on a larger portfolio than today and contributing to the overall success of Daimler Truck. But we will not stop there. Our ambition for 2030 is a return on equity of above 17% in sunny conditions. We plan to reach this with the full implementation of our service strategy based on the fundamental shift to zero-emission vehicles fully connected and the transformation to a full service and solution provider. Overall, DTFS is well positioned to capture growth opportunities as well in additional markets. With our investments, we are prepared to scale and continue to ensure operational efficiency. And we have formed a great team with a spirit to make a difference and to deliver. We plan our EBIT adjusted for the industrial business to grow significantly. As you can see on the slide, volume is a relatively modest contributor. Significant growth come from contribution margins, mainly from services and autonomous. The significant growth of our business will also increase our fixed cost towards 2030. However, I can assure you that management of costs will remain our top priority. So overall, we are confident that in 2030, we can be a significant larger and also a more profitable company with an adjusted return on sales above 12% for the industrial business in a sunny scenario. What does it mean overall and for the segments? We aim to not only be significantly more profitable in a sunny scenario, but also in a rainy scenario, meaning that we expect to have a higher resilience by 2030 compared to today and compared to our '25 ambitions. The 2030 adjusted return on sales ambition for our Industrial business will be above 12% in a sunny scenario and between 8% and 9% in a rainy scenario. This means the profitability we aim for in '25 in fair scenario, we are aiming for in 2030 in a rainy scenario. And even without autonomous, we still plan to deliver an adjusted return on sales of above 10% in 2030 for the Industrial business in sunny conditions. The segment adjusted return on sales figures are as follows for 2030 in a sunny scenario. Over 12% for Trucks North America and Mercedes-Benz and 9% for Trucks Asia and Daimler Buses. Until now, we have talked a lot about profitability and return on sales. Let's now focus on how we allocate capital and maximize shareholder value with our return on capital steering model. Return on capital is a critical KPI for us when it comes to capital allocation decisions. All investment decisions are assessed through this lens and a return on capital approach is even more important during the current [indiscernible] transition given the uncertainty regarding technologies, especially around powertrain. To ensure we can be held accountable, we are introducing ambitious for the pretax return on capital of 45% in '25 and above 50% in 2030 for industrial business in sunny conditions. Our active portfolio management approach is a key tool in our return on capital steering model. We are identifying the highest return on capital opportunities on all levels, from product to segment level. Each of the business units is constantly assessed against return on capital criteria. If we do not see a realistic opportunity to achieve our return on capital ambition, we will consider all strategic options. And when necessary, we will make tough decisions. This has also been an important framework in our accelerated pivot towards heavy duty. We have doubled down on heavy duty, including the introduction of new products in attractive white spots, such as our new vocational truck, our Tourrider bus in North America, and our Mercedes-Benz truck for China produced in China. It also led to our partnership approach in medium duty with Cummins and [ Detroit ] and exit of several products. [ In facility ] we decided to decrease the level of vertical integration significantly and optimize our local footprint. Our recently proposed merger of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors, the truck business of Toyota is a fantastic example of our active portfolio management strategy. The merger will create a company that will have significant scale in Japan and all over Asia and will have the opportunity to collectively drive transformation to [indiscernible] products. For Daimler Truck, it provides additional opportunities for our heavy-duty engine platform and underpins our biotization and focus on the heavy-duty segment where our global scale is a real competitive advantage. As already mentioned, we are confident to achieve a reduction by '25 of our capital spend of 15% versus 2019. To achieve this ambition, we are constantly working on efficiency, increasing our partnership portfolio and focusing on the most strategic areas. In our financial guidance, we consider additional investments for the highly profitable autonomous business as well as differentiating e-components like battery cells. CapEx and R&D are controlled by our return on capital lens, and we fund the increased investments in [indiscernible] from a dramatic ramp down in ICE investments. We keep our core CapEx and R&D at stable levels for 2030 compared to '25 for the capital discipline of return on capital steering and active portfolio management. We will provide more details about the potential new business opportunities when appropriate. Now I want to focus on our cash generation and how we want to allocate this cash to our shareholders. In Daimler Truck, we have already established a very strong cash position with net industrial liquidity of EUR 7.5 billion at the end of 2022. Our return on capital steering model is strict capital plan discipline means that we will continue to generate strong cash flows. Given our revenue and return on sales expectation as well as our current dividend policy, this logical means that our net industrial liquidity will continue to build. Today, I see the business requiring between EUR 4 billion to EUR 6 billion in net industrial liquidity to strive for a single A credit rating and have sufficient liquidity in the business to withstand significant headwinds and to be able to execute our strategy. By the way, when I say EUR 4 billion to EUR 6 billion, I mean EUR 6 billion, but for a limited period of time, we could also [indiscernible] the EUR 4 billion. Over time, as the business growth, the minimum liquidity requirement will gently increase and we will provide updates to the market when appropriate. But we will not run a lazy balance sheet and do not plan to sit on cash for no reason. Now I will explain you how we plan to allocate our capital. Given the disposition of financial strength, we want to detail our capital allocation framework. Fundamentally, we will protect our strong balance sheet and invest in our operations for the CapEx and R&D plan that I spoke about earlier. On top of this normal CapEx and R&D, we will consider further transformational investments to support the [indiscernible] transformation. As Martin said earlier, the pathway remains uncertain. But we want to ensure we are ready to capitalize as the opportunities arise, and we will invest to capture these opportunities. Next in the framework comes paying ordinary cash dividends. We are proud to announce our first dividend as independent company at our full year results disclosure of EUR 1.30 per share, a 40% payout ratio. We also will consider opportunistic M&A, but only if you see them as creating shareholder value and having the right return on capital potential. Excess liquidity beyond these requirements will be returned to the shareholders and share buybacks. Given what I have said over the last few slides, it will come as no surprise that we now consider Daimler Truck to have excess liquidity. Therefore, we are today announcing the launch of a share buyback program for up to EUR 2 billion. This program is set up to take up to 24 months. Given our capital allocation framework and financial ambitions, we do not expect this to be a one-off buyback program. In addition, we have refined our dividend policy to reflect the cyclical nature of the truck industry. While we are working hard to reduce our earnings cyclicity, we are not fully immune into downturns. We see cash dividends like a river that has to flow constantly. Therefore, I'm pleased to announce that our dividend payout ratio will flex between 40% and 60%. We will play out up to 60% in more rainy scenarios and maintain the 40% ratio in sunny scenarios. And with that, we aim to pay more stable dividends. In a nutshell, based on our existing financial strength, we leverage our growth opportunities to create an exciting and compelling vision for our business in 2030. We are well underway to achieve our above 10% adjusted return on sales ambition by 2025 for the industrial business in sunny conditions, and we are continuously working on our [indiscernible] measures for 2025 and beyond. Our 2030 plan is even more ambitious. With an acceleration of growth and an adjusted return on sales of above 12% in sunny conditions and even more important, over 8% in rainy conditions for the industrial business. We will maintain our disciplined return on capital-based capital allocation approach. And through active portfolio management, we identifying the most strategic investment options in the profit pool of the future, but also the areas where we have to make tough decisions. Our business will remain highly cash generative, and we will further strengthen our already robust balance sheet. Excess cash will be returned to shareholders. With our more flexible dividend policy, we aim to be a stable payer of dividends. And as announced today, we will start our first share buyback program for up to EUR 2 billion. Well, with that, thanks a lot. And now back to Martin for the concluding remarks.
Martin Daum
executiveHello again, everyone. And thanks for your patience. Thanks for your attention, and [ all ] is, I will not give another speech. And I'm not going to repeat everything, which is that. I just want to summarize things very, very briefly. We had a lot of exciting news to share with you today. We are raising our guidance for 2023 and now expect an adjusted return on sales for our industrial business from 8.5% to 10%. We are fully on track to deliver our 10% cost ambition for 2025. And we are aiming for 12% costs and more by 2030. And this is all more significant because our revenue, the reference value for the 12% will be noticeably higher 2030 than in 2025. Plus, we are initiating a share buyback program for up to EUR 2 billion over the next 2 years to make sure that our shareholders fully benefit from our successful development. And all of this clearly shows at Daimler talk, we are very confident about our way forward. We have talked about the reasons for this confidence in great detail in our presentations. Here are the most important points. We consistently implement our [ self-help ] measures regarding fixed cost, service, CapEx and R&D. We continue to execute our active portfolio management, focusing on the biggest profit point -- profit pools. We go for growth opportunities in existing markets and in attractive new markets, such as autonomous trucking. We have the right approach not only to navigating the historic transition to zero emissions, but also capturing all the opportunities associated with it. We pursue a dual technology strategy, with batteries and hydrogen for maximum flexibility and customer value. And we use global platforms and selected partnerships for maximizing scale and cost efficiency. In sum, Daimler Truck is an exciting journey, and this journey has only just begun. We know exactly where we want to go, and we have a clear plan of how to get there. We will execute this plan to the benefits of our customers and our shareholders. We will make sure Daimler Truck is transforming for sustainable growth. Thank you. [Break]
Christian Herrmann
executiveNow let's proceed with the Q&A session. Thank you, Martin, Jochen and Andreas for the very interesting and convincing, comprehensive presentations. And thank you for now taking the questions. For I guess who are here at the SoWa Power Station, you will now have the chance to ask your questions, just raise your hand, and I will then call you one at a time. For those who are not here present in the SoWa Power Station, but listening in via web screen. Should we have any questions, again, please e-mail them to [email protected], and I will ask them for you. Before we start, just one practical point, please always introduce yourself with your name and the name of the organization that you are representing before asking your question. Then I will take the first question from, I think, Klas.
Klas Bergelind
analystThank you, Klas Bergelind. So great to see the 2030 ambition, well done. I just want to focus on this year first. If I back out the ASP increase for the second half, as implied by the guidance, it's still quite high. It looks like sort of a high single-digit increase. There seems to be like an FX headwind, I think, at least a quality to my model as well. So the like-for-like increase is even higher. Jochen, we have previously talked about the carryover of pricing being maybe high single digit in the first half and then low single digit in the second half. So I'm trying to understand what the difference is? Is it service? Is it further price increases? Because it looks like quite a confident message on the ASP into the second half. I'll stop here.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. So overall, we see the good development on pricing. We talked about, I think it was based on the Q1 that pricing in the first quarter is strong. We've maintained that for the second half as well. But we have seen and we all see that some cost increase occurring in the second half. That's still our assumptions from today's perspective. And the second element, which is still relevant is when we talk about from an overall perspective about the supply chain. Well, we were very pleased to see the supply chain was good in Q1. I would say, and I talked about it was even better in Q2. But I want to underline the point that we still don't see a real stable supply chain for the rest of the year. That's another element to take into consideration for the second half.
Klas Bergelind
analystOkay. So the aftermarket mix will still be quite generous in the second half. That's what you're saying?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes.
Klas Bergelind
analystYes. Okay. And my second one is thinking about the growth range to the 2030. It looks like an 8% plus CAGR at the midpoint, maybe 6%, 7% lower and 10% high end. Can we talk Martin a little about this BEV penetration at the low end? It looks like on that sort of bridge on the waterfall in terms of the growth contribution, I'm trying to understand sort of what is the low-end penetration to get to that. Yes, to the low end of the target, which I think is 40% total growth in terms of looking at sale penetration.
Martin Daum
executiveI would say the biggest unknown is the amount of battery electric truck in 2030, which come, as Jochen have shown, with a significant increase in price. On the other side, you can say with a significant increase on variable costs as well. So I would say this is the biggest uncertainty, a high penetration of battery at the expense potentially at hydrogen might limit that cost on the upper end. But the 40%, it's market, it's service, it's increased technology in the products. So I would say that's the lower end is a fairly safe bet and the higher end depends on the penetration.
Klas Bergelind
analystVery quick final one, I promise, is on thinking about, I think you said that you think about the partnership on cell manufacturing locally in North America. Is that a definite decision of going partnership on sell or can it be a situation to 2030 where you decide to go more local like we see or vertical like we see, for example, as some of your peers like Volvo or is partnership model, the way forward on cell manufacturing?
Martin Daum
executiveLook, you have seen with the uncertainties of the speed of the increase with uncertainty, which technology ultimately prevailed. I would say it's all about leveraging your bids. And we are working at the moment in a very interesting model. The U.S. legislation with the IRA Inflation Reduction Act definitely supports local battery productions. And I have a feeling we are pretty soon. Unfortunately, not for today would be absolutely a bone, but sometimes all stars don't align time-wise. I think you'll see it when we unveil it. It will be an extremely attractive solution for Daimler Trucks and the other partners of the partnership, certainly.
Daniela Costa
analystIt's Daniela from Goldman Sachs. I have -- I think it's 2.5 questions because part of it is related, but very interesting to see you introducing a ROCE target. I think Jochen said at some point that you'll divest businesses that you believe along the way, can't get to the hurdle rates on ROCE. Can you talk through which business is at the moment are on that watch list of improvement? I imagine Asia buses are 2 things, but any comment there?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. So first of all, it's important to understand when we talk about active portfolio management, which we do quite a lot. It's not only the segments we report to you, but it's basically roughly 50 businesses we judge on a regular basis on profitability as well as on capital allocation. And if you look on the list of decisions we have made since the spinoff, it's quite a lot already. But I would say it's in the nature of the business that we only announce what we are working on if we make a final decision. So therefore, I can assure you, there is a couple of topics on the list. But as Martin said, on a battery as well, we will announce that when we make a decision. Regarding the 2 you mentioned, Asia and the bus, well on Asia, obviously, we made a decision already. And with the merger, we have a great opportunity to leverage our business in Asia, not only on the level of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino motors, but also on the level of Toyota Daimler Trucks. So I think here, we have strategically made a good move in the right direction. We still have to work on to make it happen. And then on the bus side, also to be very clear, and I said it in the speech as well, the bus still suffers significantly from the low coach market in Europe. But we see really light at the end of the tunnel. If you look on conversations with our customers towards 2024 and beyond. The market is coming back, and we will showcase then also that the profitability on the bus will be significantly higher. But you're right, we are looking on all options all the time, but nothing to announce today.
Daniela Costa
analystAnd just also following up on ROCE on. You've laid out a path for margins, the path for CapEx as well and those reductions. But can you talk maybe a little bit about working capital? And as I saw your cash conversion, I think, is unchanged. We just had a tremendously difficult period on supply chain. Now you're going to have 4 platforms, should we expect working capital intensity to go higher in the future ?
Unknown Executive
executiveI would differentiate between here and now and the more strategic part of your question. In the here now, it's fair to say, and I think you are rather vocal on that. Our working capital level at the moment is too high. And that's for somehow for a good reason because still the supply chain is not stable enough. So in 2022 and in 2023 for us, the most important piece is to safeguard supply. And with that, we accept a higher working capital than we should have in an optimal situation. But as soon as the supply chain is stable and we are working on that already, we want to lower our working capital, which gives us an opportunity even free up further cash on top of what we have shown. Regarding your more strategic part of the question, with more technologies, I would not expect that it's a significant increase in working capital. Because if you look on the structure of working capital in total, a lot about is inventories. And if you look on the inventories, it's mainly about the truck itself. What will happen is, well, if you have the same amount of trucks sitting in your working capital, but the cost of the truck is significantly higher than today, also the working capital in absolute terms will increase but it's also related to a significant bigger revenue. So that's the only thing I would see as an increase in absolute terms, yes, but it's more related to cost of a truck than of the different technologies.
Daniela Costa
analystAnd then the final one relates to, I think Martin said right at the beginning that zero emission vehicles will be significantly more expensive for the foreseeable future. Some players in the industry talk about different business models than just selling the truck and doing things like pay as you use or as you go. Do you think we will end up with -- you'll end up with a mix of those? Or fundamentally, the sales model is going to be the same?
Martin Daum
executiveWe are talking a belief systems. And I would say, it's always a question who holds the asset. And I can't see a company the size of ours with 520,000 trucks, 540,000 trucks or even more a year that we hold a significant amount of trucks associated with the risks in my opinion, I can't see business models like that. It might be always a kind of a gimmick to get something into the market and get it started, but it's for me, not a sustainable business model because it's so asset heavy. So I can't see [ OM ] doing that.
Nicolai Kempf
analystIt's Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank, and thank you for the strong and impressive presentation. I have 2 questions and they are both for North America. The first one, a bit more fines related, this year, you're targeting a margin between 11% to 13%, but the ambition for '25 is 12%. So what's kind of the headwind next 2 years? We are not a bit more optimistic on North America by '25?
Unknown Executive
executiveSo first of all, the ambition is above 12%. And we could say at the moment, we have a very, very strong U.S. market, which is even beyond basically what we are saying in a sunny condition. So that's one of the reasons why we only quotation confirm the 12%. But I also mentioned in my speech, if the favorable market conditions as well as the favorable conditions on pricing, which is driven by demand and supply would continue towards 2025, there's obviously upside potential, and that's not only true for North America, but Daimler Truck well.
Nicolai Kempf
analystOkay. Understood. And my second one is on your market share in North America. I mean you mentioned 40% right now, which is pretty strong and growing to 45%. I consider for the occasional sector, but that's just one part, like 25% and a much bigger part of the on highway segment. Now we have Navistar just launching a new power train, which will be significantly more efficient. And we still have this famous electric car maker from California which could also take some market share in U.S.. So the question from who will you take more market share?
Martin Daum
executiveI mean, first of all, we are extremely confident in the power of our products. And that's not just a marketing gig, where everyone is proud certainly of its kids and its products. It's what we get from our customers. Voya, the leader when it comes to TCO. Voya, the leader when it comes to service and service networks and responsiveness. We are the leader when it comes to any type of safety technology and we have such a close great connections over years with our customers. And you have seen Mark work, for example, from Schneider, good friend of our company. I would say these are high hurdles, and that is the beauty of capitalism. This is competition keeps us on our toes and keeps us alert, never arrogant, always knowing that we have to deliver the best solution and I'm really confident in the potential of our company. To beat Freightliner, it's a tough one, but we are prepared for that fight.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystMiguel from BNP Paribas Exane. I've got one for each, maybe let's start with Andreas. Let's go back to the revenue growth of 40% to 60%. Obviously, a big contribution is the transition to zero emission vehicles. Is the base case assumption still that 50% of your mix by 2030 will come from battery electric and fuel cell? And how does that drive the higher top line? How does the price of BEV compared to diesel by 2030? Is it also 3x versus diesel? And that basically assumes that we will get to parity with diesel by 2030? And lastly, given the ramp-up from lower volumes, is that not going to dilute your margins?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Thanks, Miguel. Maybe I'll start with and then Jochen, you can add on the pricing and margin side. As Martin said, we talk about up to 60% ZEV by 2030. And the rationale behind that uncertainty is like described the buildup on the infrastructure on the one side and the availability of green energy at competitive pricing on the other side. That's the multiplication. We will be ready with our products so we will be able to provide trucks up to 60% by 2030. But the result of the multiplication depends strongly on these factors that are way outside of our ecosystem, what we control. And maybe you want to add as for the assumptions in the 2030 financials.
Jochen Goetz
executiveYes. And Miguel, I think it's also fair to say there is not a one size fits all when it comes to battery electric trucks because it's totally different if you talk about a bus in a city, if you talk about a garbage truck where you can collect garbage overnight. and have a different model and different efficiency or if you talk about a long-haul truck. So that's important to understand. Whenever we talk about the profitability of better electric vehicles, we really have to go region by region and segment by segment. Generally speaking, you have seen also in the revenue bucket, there's a lot of uncertainty. It depends on the penetration rate, but it also depends on the technology mix, which all plays the hydrogenized, which all plays fuel cell and battery. But specifically to battery, as also Andreas said in his speech also in 2030, there will be significantly higher revenue for battery electric vehicle than for diesel. We work on bringing costs down, but still we have a battery electric truck, there will always be more constant if there are more pricing. From a profitability perspective, and that's a question we have received quite often in the past and there we want to answer that today as well. We see the profitability or eTruck compared to diesel on a similar level than it is with diesel. And I think that's a strong message already. And therefore, we also said, even after a big chunk of the transformation towards 2030. Without autonomous, we still maintain double-digit margins, including battery electric vehicles.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystAnd then on capital allocation -- on capital allocation. You mentioned before, maintaining a minimum industrial net cash between EUR 4 biilion and EUR 6 billion, let's call it, EUR 6 billion. With the new buyback and dividend payout, I just wanted to confirm that your base case implies still building up cash and not converge to the EUR 6 billion. So that kind of implies that free cash flow will step up in 2024 and 2025.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes, I can fully confirm that. We made this calculation obviously in advance as well. We feel well equipped even with the share buyback program that we further build up net liquidity position, including paying a good dividend to our shareholders.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystAnd then lastly, on demand, maybe to Martin. I understand you're now taking orders for 2024 in Europe. What can you tell us about demand so far? Should we expect lower order intake overall in 2024? And how are you pricing those orders? Are you seeing any downward pressure from either low raw materials or more intense competition?
Martin Daum
executiveI would say at the moment, no. But let do it a little bit more elaborate. A year ago, the biggest question was always the recession is coming. Don't you see it? And I, my standard answer over some time, I hear a lot about recession, I don't see it. Now we are 12 months later, the questions are the same. Do you see the recession coming? I can still see I hear about it, but I don't see it. For everyone who wants a recession, one day, it will come. But we can wait another day for that. The order backlog, the order intake is still strong. Why don't we open it up for eternity because you would just get reserving of slots, because it's as easy as you can order as easy you can cancel, we can never shop a truck down the throat of a customer who does not have the transportation need or the money to pay for it would make no sense. Therefore me, a too long and a too big order backlog is not the sign of health. It's just a sign of reserving something maybe of the future. I want solid order backlogs. That's, I would say, the biggest impact behind that we sequentially open up our order backlog. And so far, everything is going fine markets after cycles. I'm looking forward when we get the fleet orders for 2024. In the U.S., for example, September, October-ish and I'm really positive about 2024. When it comes to pricing, I would say the margins will remain strong. It's at least, am I allowed to do forward-looking statements with all the disclaimers. So far, it's [indiscernible] it's more gut feel at the moment. If raw material would go significantly down in our case, especially aluminum and steel that might have an impact, but it does not have an impact on margins. It's more a raw material induced situation. But for the moment, we see here relatively stable. And then we have one good thing at the moment. They still unfilled demand for markets. And if one market would show our market segment, which show a weakness, we have enough other segments or markets to then step in and take over that production that is available. So overall, still very positive for 2024.
Unknown Analyst
analystIt's Rob Wortham, Melius Research. I have 2 questions on autonomy. And the first is on the assumption of hub to hub, is the Freight network as currently structured, able to do the hub to hub or does it need to evolve into that shape in order to take advantage of the autonomy on a hub to hub basis? And the second question is, do you foresee Waymo or full autonomous being separate from hub to hub for a long time? Or would the fully autonomous players come into hub to hub before they do the rest of autonomy? In other words, is hub to hub a sustainable niche indefinitely.
Unknown Executive
executiveI mean, you're right, hub to hub is not day to day it's loading dock to loading dock. But therefore, we work at talk extremely close with our large customers. C. R. England, Schneider, J.B. Hunt, you name it. We have rather more customer interested at the moment. We have trucks where we can work together with them. I think that the hub to hub part is fairly easy done because in that long-haul business, the pulling unit, the tractor and the load are fairly easy. It's a 5-minute issue, then you can switch the tractors. So I see someone coming, let's say, half a day driving to a hub, 5 minutes later, the load is disconnected and connected to an autonomous track. The guy goes back with unload to his origins back home at night, which makes a job so much more attractive and so much nicer. And then the many days over the road transport is done by an autonomous unit and then taking over the next half. That fits perfectly well in systems our customers can envision. And therefore, we work very closely with them. I can't comment on the strategies and plan of other potential competitors on the virtual driver field. One thing we know for sure, the hub to ramp stretch this 1 mile is more difficult than the 200 miles on the highway. So ramp to ramp would be even easier, unfortunately, not necessarily practical then hub to ramp. What I can't see is the fully autonomous truck in a city pedestrian environment is exponentially higher and the computing power, the cases, the difficulties, the problems for safe driving are enormous. Human brain can master everything. We landed on the moon and we created artificial intelligence, really amazing. So one day, yes. But this I would like to have it closer to reality and hub to hub is closer to reality.
Anthony Dick
analystAnthony Dick from BHF. First question on China. So not a very significant contribution for you today. But you and your peers have often talked in the past about the opportunity for Western OEMs to penetrate that market in the midterm. It's not outlined as a major long-term growth driver in your presentation. So I was just wondering what's your latest view on this opportunity? And to what extent it can help truck growth in the next couple of years, considering that market is evolving on quite a different cycle than the Western markets?
Martin Daum
executiveI mean -- and then -- I mean we go into China with a very distinct strategy. We build our Mercedes Arocs in China is the truly Chinese product. And as Andreas said, we are now even going to localize the engine or the assembly of the engine. It's a European technology at Chinese cost level for the Chinese market, yes, that's a unique strategy. And it's not just a fairy tale idea, a vision, it's reality. We launched the product. We go into the market, and we have very good feedback from our customers. Why don't you see it here on our numbers? Fairly easy because we take it on at equity, potentially, Jochen, do you want to take over from there?
Jochen Goetz
executiveYes. And I want to specifically answer your question, and I understand where you're coming from and say, it's not on a charge from a growth perspective. The reason is pretty simple because we looked from a growth perspective, what happens between 2025 and 2030. So we always have seen China as a strong market in 2025 and we expect that still to be on a very high level. But if you start today in 2023 and compare with what our assumptions in 2025 and 2030 are there's a significant increase in market. As we all know, the Chinese market is very much depressed at the moment. So for today, growth potential, but from a, call it, more mid-time perspective, it basically is a reconfirmation of the growth potential we have shown in the past.
Anthony Dick
analystOkay. And I had a second question on the fixed cost reduction. So if I read the slide correctly, it seems that you're expecting a further 7% fixed cost reduction between 2022 and 2025. Could you maybe tell us what is already achieved in 2023? And what should we expect to come further in 2024 and 2025.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes, you're fully right. Well, we have given ourselves a target of 15%. We announced at the end of 2022 that we achieved 8%. So if you look on the distribution between the remaining 3 years, I would say it's rather 1/4, 1/3, [ 1/3 ]. I talked about one specific initiative that's the [ TechNet ] strategy. And that's a burden for 2023 because we invest a lot of money in our new IT system landscape to have state-of-the-art technology as soon as the systems are rolled out. So that's something which is a burden for 2023, but will bring benefits then towards 2025. But the easy calculation is you can divide 7% basically by the 3 years.
Anthony Dick
analystAnd maybe I don't know if I can squeeze a last one. It's on TCO parity in EVs and hydrogen. So in the latest CMD, you presented the targets at TCO parity 2025 for BEVs and 27 for FCVs. I'm just wondering if there is still -- this is still what you envisage today? And what are the underlying assumptions in terms of incentives and additional cost on diesel that will take you to these targets.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes, that's a very good one, Anthony. And repeating what we said and I think I had it on one chart, in the majority of the cases today, if you look at TCO, be it battery or hydrogen propelled compared with diesel, you end up with higher TCO. We end up with higher TCO, yes, because the depreciation piece under the TCO calculation is higher cost of the truck, price of the truck, but mainly because of cost of energy. Now there are cases in this world where you get subsidies for the purchase price, where you get subsidized by toll where you have access to rather cheap green energy. So there are already cases today where the TCO is better with zero emission than with diesel, but the majority of the cases still leads to higher TCO with zero emission. And as we move forward, and maybe when we fast forward in the year 2030, we expect that not only infrastructure will be built up, but we also expect that cost of green energy will go down. And the cost of diesel, the cost of CO2 will go up. In which region of the world, which percentage that is hard to predict, that remains a little bit the crystal ball. And it's important to underline, like I said, the cost of energy will be the single biggest lever to influence decarbonization speed. So there is not that 1 year where there's the breaking point. It's a transition phase. It will be different in different places of the world. And we need that to happen. Otherwise, the multiplication that Martin mentioned will end up with 1-0 and then the total result is 0.
David Mack
analystDavid Mack from J. Goldman. On the hydrogen combustion template that you talked about, are you assuming that's green hydrogen, I guess, what color hydrogen do assume is produced to be burned? And if we're talking about hydrogen from conventional utilities, hydrogen derived from conventional power plants, coal, what have you. Do you know what the carbon differential is between that and say, a diesel engine?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. For the engine itself, it doesn't matter the color of hydrogen, what the color of hydrogen is. It could be gray, purple, green, blue, like with the battery electric vehicle, right, the mix of the energy has no impact on the vehicle. However, and I think that's your point, as we want to decarbonize the source plays a major role, not for the technology, the combustion engine, but in the overall tank in the overall well-to-wheel equation. Yes. And this is the same like on the electricity side. So if we are -- if we want to be serious as for the Paris accord, then all sectors need to decarbonize and electricity has to become green, and hydrogen has to become green or blue in order to make sure that in the well-to-wheel equation, we have CO2 neutrality.
Unknown Analyst
analystJim Irwin at Moon Capital, 2 quick ones. As promised, you showed the sunny versus rainy day scenarios. In 2019, it was like 500 basis point difference. 2025, it's roughly 300 to 400 basis points. So some improvement there, which is great. Could you share with us what those kind of macro assumptions are? Or what -- is it primarily volume that's the biggest difference there in terms of that? And if it's volume, what's kind of that magnitude between sunny and rainy. That's question one.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. It's basically volume. And obviously, if market conditions change significantly, it has also some impact on pricing. These are the underlying assumptions between sunny, fair and rainy. And how you could think about a sunny scenario, what you see right now. So that's basically what we call sunny. And the rainy scenario, always described as 2020 when we had the COVID here. So that's basically what you can have in mind for the 2 scenarios.
Unknown Analyst
analystVery helpful. And then on the use of cash flow, you might have mentioned it, but I might have missed it. M&A, bolt-on relatively modest? Or are there some significant uses for M&A? I'm thinking about it in terms of that came before stock buyback. So I know you said the buyback program is not one and done, but just trying to get a sense of the M&A and potentially some of the value chain that you could partner with and put capital into. So I just want to make sure I understand that.
Martin Daum
executiveI mean you can see it on the bright side, we have the strength to do something if it makes sense. On the other side, I see nothing major at the moment that would make sense. We are in all -- in all areas of the globe, we know exactly our limitation when it comes to what we can do and what we can't do. And I think we are pretty were covered everywhere. You have seen it on the talk side. Here, we moved. We added Algolux, artificial intelligence, object recognition, specialists -- specialist company, I could see from time to time those opportunities and if they are priced right, that we do it, but this is not a big and a major thing. So M&A activities are a supplement not a necessity to get everything what you have seen. If we ever do something big, it has to significantly change the picture what we have shown you, but I can't see that at the moment.
Unknown Analyst
analystOne other quick one in there. Vocational market share today, North America, 20%, 25%, what's your ambitions in '25, 2030?
Martin Daum
executiveWhy shouldn't we have with our dealer network, our product strengths have it lower than on the on-highway side.
Unknown Analyst
analystJust a quick question about 2025, the industry capacity. Right, right now, we have bottlenecks out there and some are maybe structural if they don't want to really invest in, let's call it, fading diesel technology. What do you think the industry capacity is for 2025. The idea of a prebuy. How much can we make?
Martin Daum
executiveThat's a very, very difficult question because how to define industry capacity. The nice part about -- if I look at just the OEM capacity that is easy to add. We work in our most of our plants in our -- in 2-shift models. We can easily expand to 3-shift model. So there is another 20%, 25% without any big investments in. The bigger bottlenecks are always in the true production location. I remember I was once in one of our factories. It was said to me, you're not producing nothing. I was really kind of upset. And the answer was, you're just assembling stuff. You're not producing and fully right observation. Production always has to go with capital. And that means now supplier by supplier, by supplier, you have to look into it. And you have stretched one issue, which, in my opinion, might limit the market on any upswing is the moment you have to invest significantly in production items for combustion engines. I see a reluctancy of suppliers as well because normally, they calculate with a 10-year return when they do major investments. And then we talk 2035, and then are we willing back big time and invest triple-digit million amount of money in something which might be gone by 2035. So that might be a limitation.
Christian Herrmann
executiveI think we have a couple of minutes left, and I have 4 questioners from the web. I would start with Stephen Reitman from Societe General. His question, have you had the opportunity to independently benchmark all the electric heavy-duty trucks that are operating in the U.S.? In other words, have you been able to assess the Tesla CMI.
Martin Daum
executiveI mean, we consistently benchmark all our trucks, regardless of the powertrain. And certainly, we are watching very diligently what every competitor is doing. And as I said, we are not arrogant, but we are not afraid of everyone. What I, in my opinion, every newcomer underestimates is a huge complexity at targets. There is not 1 truck, that's not even 1 tractor, even our big customers, at least by 2030 different variants of the same looking truck line because they are extremely sophisticated, and they are extremely for them, everything the feature translates into TCO. So I'm really not afraid of nobody. Andreas, some comments about energy and technology features of our electric trucks?
Unknown Executive
executiveNo. I think, Martin, you covered it quite well. We do benchmark all of them. We take them all serious. We see similar approaches, like I earlier said, basically, all the players are upscaling [ PassCAR ] technology in that early fast-to-market face with smaller volumes. It will be interesting, though, moving forward, when we step-by-step [ truckify ] these technologies and then rather bet our horse and pure truck scales, how the pure players will then evolve when the legacy players have their global volume that justifies own dedicated purpose-built platforms with technology that goes beyond [ PassCAR ], but that's for the years to come.
Christian Herrmann
executiveThank you. Then I have Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan with 3 questions. Start with Brazil, can you please elaborate more on the restructuring measures taken in Brazil? When will we see the payback on the actions taken so far?
Unknown Executive
executiveOkay. Well, we talked about Brazil. I think it's one of the areas where we did it a lot. On the one hand, we changed the vertical integration already. We outsourced logistics stepped out of transmissions and Axor to some extent. We recently also optimized our footprint selling deferred plant in Campinas and in parallel, we also optimized our cost and reduce the overall white collar numbers. So a lot of things are going on in Brazil at the moment. Some have an immediate impact, which is positive. Some is a lead time until the full impact comes into the P&L. So from therefore, the plan of execution works pretty well. We suffer at the moment in Brazil like everyone because after the introduction of [ Euro VI ], the markets are pretty weak. But from a restructuring perspective, I would say, we are well on track to achieve our targets.
Christian Herrmann
executiveSimilar area on Europe. Can you come back on the fixed cost reduction and the actions taken in Europe and which actions are you taking or have you taken to reduce the fixed cost allocation to engine manufacturing?
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, from a European perspective, I think I talked about it on this chart. First of all, we will continue the activities we had already. One big thing is the tech-led strategy, which is especially Mercedes-Benz and the reason why is we had a joint IT landscape of Mercedez-Benz cars. So it was very close connected to Mercedes. That's one big lever. The other one, you have also seen that on the Mercedes-Benz efficiency program, now especially on sales, there's a lot of potential. And it's not that we have forgotten to talk about sales. But that was another area where we had first to make sure that the operations went stable after the spin-off. And now we have to optimize it. So that's the next big lever, which is coming. And then the third one I want to mention, and it's an ongoing process with Turkey, with India for the Mercedes-Benz business. There's a lot of optimization potential when it comes to best cost country and to outsourcing activities. So that's the third big lever for Mercedes-Benz to achieve the target. On the engine side, there was another one. I think we made clear that we step out of the medium-duty engine business that's the plan we have announced and we are on the way to execute and on the heavy duty given the size and the need for heavy-duty engines in the years to come. We also maintain our what we call last man standing strategy, and rather optimize the overall volumes than stepping out of that business.
Christian Herrmann
executiveAnd a last quick one from Jose. Can you talk about how do you manage residual value of internal combustion engine trucks as you launch the BEV family.
Martin Daum
executiveI see that pretty relaxed and not just today that the volumes are far too low. But if I look at 2 scenarios when we have 40%, 50% BEV trucks, they are so much more expensive than ICE engines that the secondary market, and those are normally customers having bigger difficulties in investing in their fleets, they will I think there will still be a strong market within much lower supply of ICE engines. So I'm not worried. I would say this will be business as usual. That means clear depreciation schedules and residual values following those depreciating schedules.
Christian Herrmann
executiveThen 2 short questions from Himanshu Agarwal from Jefferies. At the last Capital Market Day, Karen mentioned Mercedes-Benz does not hold podium positions in product sales or service. Can you give us an update on that? And the second one significant emission regulation changes are due the latest 2027 and potentially Euro VII in Europe as well. How do you think it will impact the business post 27 in terms of mix, i.e., trucks [ less ] service? And do you see economies of scale between U.S. and European emission regulations? And what do you see as the biggest risk to compliance with those regulations?
Martin Daum
executiveI'm glad that you're asking short questions are not complex question. The first one really short. I would say that's a key mission of Karen Rastam and her team to really bring Mercedes-Benz back where it was for many years. And I think she is in an excellent way. When it comes to quality, we are on a level we haven't been for the last 15 years. I think the initiatives she is doing on after sales on customer attention are paying, but it's with everything they have to rebuild trust. It takes time. It's so easy to destroy something. It's so difficult to build it up again, but I see ourselves in a very, very good way. And certainly, I could see us doing the next Capital Market Day in Europe and then have not just the glorious North American products around us but have a similar impressive lineup of European products with European customers, European testimonials around that. I'm not worried at all that she will be successful with this talk. And I have to admit the second question was so complex. I just handed over to someone else.
Jochen Goetz
executiveI can do that about the regulation. I think in Europe, it's the Euro VII regulation, but it's not fully clear how that plays out. That's the one thing. The other regulation, which is underway, the CO2 regulation towards 2025. Here, we rather clear, we already announced that we have a BEV long haul truck on the way, which is one major pillar to achieve that. But in parallel, we also optimize still our diesel truck speed and the engine, be it on aerodynamics to achieve that. Again, Euro VII, a little bit unclear. And then in the U.S., I think it's a good announcement that EPA and CARB is going now in a similar direction towards 2027. I think we touched briefly on it earlier, assuming that costs will increase quite a bit, there will be most likely a high prebuy in the years earlier to that. That's what we see at the moment. And then afterwards, as always, a year after a prebuy would be from a market perspective rather on the lower one. So that's what we see at the moment.
Christian Herrmann
executiveThank you, Jochen. And then the last but one from Shakil Kiruna from Morgan Stanley, what will drive higher earnings resilience between [ '25 and '30 ], especially in light of increased fixed costs in that period?
Martin Daum
executiveI mean the fixed cost definitely will grow much less than the revenue. And therefore, I don't see any impact on the resilience of our company. It's that we go far more in that service-related sustainable business. Imagine autonomous driving would pick up, then you have like a consistent flow of kind of subscription models over the years. We see it and we do long-term warranty contracts, repair contracts, which already help us today to get more sustainable income. And I would say this will be the major forces we'll see in those years ahead.
Christian Herrmann
executiveAnd then last one from Jonathan Dei, HSBC. On autonomous, please, could you elaborate on the assumptions behind the autonomous targets of EUR 3 billion revenue and EUR 1 billion EBIT and how it could ramp?
Martin Daum
executiveThe assumption is that the virtual driver has a significant potential to increase efficiency. And like all software-based models, it scales easily. And we have based that on pretty conservative assumptions that routes in rather fair weather areas, saying in the house of the U.S., focusing on freight corridors, so not picturing the entire U.S. highway system just using 3, 4 of the major freight corridors. This not by far away from a huge market share. So there is all ways once this business starts of growth potential. But then we are talking things beyond 2030. And I would say this is already -- and this should be the last sentence here. We talked about 2023 in our confidence. We talked about 2025 and our confidence. We talked about 2030 in our confidence. I'm confident for 2040, but I would like to leave something for the next Capital Market Day and not cover everything for now to eternity just today. I think this range is already a large and big range.
Christian Herrmann
executiveThanks a lot, Martin. Perfect words for the last question and the last answer. So thank you all for attending today's Capital Market Day. It was a great pleasure for us hosting this event here in Boston at the SoWa power station and giving you a comprehensive outlook on '23, '25 and 2030, as Martin just explained. As always, should you have any further questions after the event, our IR team remains at your full disposal. I hope to welcome again soon at the latest to our Q2 upcoming disclosure, August 1, which will again be then a purely virtual event. Take care, and have a pleasant day. Thank you.
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