Dangote Cement Plc (DANGCEM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Dangote Cement FY 2020 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Temi Aduroja. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon or good evening, and welcome to Dangote Cement's Full Year 2020 Conference Call. My name is Temi Aduroja, Head of Investor Relations at Dangote Cement. On the call today, we have our CEO, Michel Puchercos, who will be taking us through the presentation. We also have our group CFO, Guillaume Moyen, who is available for question and answer. So we'll have a Q&A session at the end of the call. Thank you very much. Over to you, Michel.

Thank you, Temi. Good afternoon, everybody. First of all, I would like to sincerely apologize for the delay in the results release and conference call. This was due to some technical challenges while trying to upload our results on the Nigerian Stock Exchange site. I want to thank you very much for taking the time to join us today. It is my pleasure to welcome you all to this conference call to discuss Dangote Cement's financial results for the full year of 2020. Let us begin on Page 2, where you can see a summary of our achievements. I'm delighted to share the progress that we made in 2020 despite a challenging environment owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2020 was a record year for Dangote Cement in several aspects. So just to give you a brief overview of these achievements. On the financial side, we achieved a record high profit after tax of NGN 276.1 billion, up 37.7%, our best ever EBITDA of NGN 478.1 billion and proposed paying a dividend of NGN 16 per share. In terms of volumes, group volumes were up 8.6% at 25.7 million tonnes and Nigeria volumes reached 15.9 million tonnes. Most significantly, we commissioned our Apapa terminal, which enable us to commence clinker exports from Nigeria to West and Central Africa. On the sustainability side of the business, we continue to diversify our Board with an increase in female representation. Our successful national consumer promo produced 471 millionaires during the year. We made our second disclosure to the carbon disclosure project in 2020, as we intend to reach global standards of reporting emission. We were rated "C" by CDP on our carbon disclosure for 2020. This is one of the highest ratings in sub-Saharan Africa. I will discuss all these points in more detail as I go through the presentation. On Page 3, we have highlighted more of our achievements. You can see clearly here that 2020 was a very successful year for our business overall, despite the restrictions and lockdowns that were put in place across our various operations to cover the spread of COVID-19 in the second quarter of the year. If you turn to Page 4 we discussed the macroeconomic environment of 2020. It will come as no surprise to you that sub-Saharan Africa was badly affected by the double impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the commodity market decline in 2020. This, coupled with foreign exchange volatility, resulted in a challenging year. According to the IMF, sub-Saharan Africa's GDP is estimated to have contracted by 2.6% in 2020. We look forward to a more positive macroeconomic environment in 2021 when growth is expected to return across the continent. We already witnessed a recovery across operations in the second half of the year. We also believe that the Continental Free Trade Agreement and duty-free trading on goods and services in Africa should support growth going forward. Dangote Cement welcomes the strong dynamic driven by the Africa Continental Free Trade area, which supports our export strategy. On Page 5 of the presentation, we highlight the work that CACOVID, an intervention initiative set up by Aliko Dangote to combat COVID-19 in Nigeria, and indeed, the Aliko Dangote Foundation itself has carried out during the pandemic to protect its people and customers. At Dangote Cement, we have played a major role in protecting our people and communities from COVID-19 by contributing nearly $6 million from all our operating countries to ensure their safety and well-being throughout the pandemic. Moving on to Page 6. You can see the impact of COVID-19 across our operations. As I mentioned earlier, we have to close some of our factories towards the end of the first quarter and in the second quarter of the year due to the restrictions that were put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19. This, of course, had a negative impact on our business. However, we instituted a business continuity framework and an emergency preparedness and response plan to ensure that our operations and supply chains were not hindered. South Africa, Ghana, Congo and Nigeria experienced full or partial lockdown in most of April, which impacted our operations. Our other operations had various levels of restrictions and curfews in the second quarter. We saw a strong recovery in the second half of the year once our business fully resumed operations. On Page 8, you can see how our business remained robust during the year, both on the financial and the operational side. On the financial side, group revenue was up 16%, supported by strong volumes. Group EBITDA was up 20.9%, following a strong group performance. Our cost control measures led to relatively flat cash costs. As a result, Nigeria EBITDA was up 16.7%, with margins of 58.5%. South Africa EBITDA was up 49%, and reached a record high EBITDA margin of 22.4% for the year. On the operational side, group volumes were up 8.6%, to 25.7 million tonnes, despite the impact of COVID-19 in Q2. Nigeria volumes were up 12.9%, supported by strong domestic demand. Our income statement on Page 9 highlights our financial performance in more detail. Our profit before tax was up 49% and we recorded a strong EPS of NGN 16.14, up 36.9%. Looking at Page 10. You can see that our cash from operations is growing at a faster pace than volumes. Investments continue to prepare the group to capture market growth across territories and net debt is just NGN 337.3 billion as at December 31, 2020. Our balance sheet on Page 11 remains resilient, which positioning us to seize opportunities. On Page 12, I would like to draw your attention to our performance in Nigeria. Total sales volume in Nigeria reached a record high of 15.9 million tonnes, up 12.9%, thanks to robust demand following an increase in real estate activity in the second half of the year and a successful innovative national consumer promotion, Bag of Goodies Season 2. We also recorded a strong EBITDA of NGN 421.4 billion, up 16.7%, owing to our cost-saving measures. Despite inflationary pressures and foreign exchange volatility, our disciplined cost control measures enabled us to maintain a relatively flat cash cost per tonne. In 2020, we exported 197 k tonne of clinker to West and Central Africa and continued cement export by road. On Page 13, you can get a clear picture of Nigeria's V shape cement market recovery in Q3 and Q4, following a weak second quarter owing to COVID-19. We have also disclosed the year-on-year domestic volume growth in Q4 2020 of 18% and year-on-year domestic volume growth of 14% for the full year 2020. This double-digit growth led to us leveraging on all our capacity to serve the Nigerian market. The low interest rate in Nigeria also drove strong demand for real estate investment, which is supporting the construction sector. On Page 14, you can see that our volumes in Pan Africa were up 4.4% to 10 million tonnes despite lockdowns and restrictions in second quarter of 2020. This demonstrates the recovery of the cement market in the second half of the year. Revenues were up 12.7% to NGN 318.7 billion supported by higher realized prices and volume growth in the third and fourth quarter, most notably in Ethiopia, Congo and Cameroon. We achieved a record high EBITDA of NGN 17.1 billion, up 49% and a record high EBITDA margin of 22.4%. We have made cash cost improvement in 7 of our 9 pan-African operations and Senegal continues to perform very well. We also commissioned the Tanzania power plant in November. Over the next few pages from Page 15, you will see the updates from our pan-African operations. We observed on the year volume growth in Cameroon, Congo and Ethiopia of 17%, 59% and 9%, respectively. We maintained good market share in these countries. Our Congo plant has made a significant cash cost improvement. In Ethiopia, we have improved our efficiency with a focus on the increased use of cheaper alternative fuels. On Page 16, in Senegal and Sierra Leone volumes were up nearly 8% and 15% as well. Senegal cement market remained strong in 2020. In Ghana, we had a 16% decrease in sales compared to last year, owing to a strategic focus on the more profitable markets. On Page 17, we are pleased to report that sales in South Africa increased by just over 9% year-on-year, following a surge in home improvement after the total lockdown in the second quarter. In Tanzania, we achieved a sales of 1.1 million tonnes for full year 2020, including 81 Kt of clinker. The commissioning of our gas-fired power plant occurred in November following the lifting of air travel restrictions. Finally, Zambia cement market is down due to a depressed economic environment, which led to a decrease in our sales too. Now moving on to our debt and liquidity from Page 19. Dangote Cement has maintained a track record of accessing the local debt market, with the successful completion of the issuance of NGN 100 million series 1, 5-year bond, and the successful completion of the issuance of NGN 100 million series 15 and 16 commercial paper notes at attractive rates. As you will see on Page 20 and '21, our capital structure remains robust and we are enjoying a strong balance sheet and liquidity. These liquidities, including strong cash flow generation of NGN 470.3 billion, up 10.4%, allows to cover short-term obligations. I am pleased to announce that Dangote Cement has obtained approval from its Board of Directors to access the capital markets to support business growth and maximize available sources of debt funding. Subsequent to obtaining the relevant regulatory approvals, Dangote Cement intend to explore its medium to long-term debt funding options through the best capital market, subject to favorable market conditions. On Page 22, we highlight the success of our share buyback program in December. At the end of December, Dangote Cement repurchased 0.24% of its shares at an average price of NGN 243 per share. As in our approach to run the company in general, we decided to deploy an innovative solution to returning cash to our shareholders in addition to the annual dividend payment. Our strategy remains to make the company more attractive to investors in the near and for future long-term growth. On Page 24 to 29, we highlight our continued efforts on sustainability and governance, structured around the 7 sustainability pillars of the Dangote Way. Despite the challenging environment in which we operate today, we strongly believe that sustainable value creation for all our stakeholders will be based on our ability to fully embed the Dangote Way into every aspect of our operations and culture. From Page 25-29, you will see details of what we have achieved with regards to our 7 sustainability pillars this year. Page 25, discussing the institutional pillar and our strong governance framework; on Page 26, we have made a significant improvement on our environmental pillar. We strengthened our alternative fuel initiative, which focuses on leveraging the circular economy business model. The social pillar, on Page 27, demonstrates what we have been doing in response to COVID-19, as I discussed earlier. Our national consumer promo, part of our economic pillar, which you can see on Page 28, was well received and is driving demand for cement. We will continue to deploy excellent marketing initiatives across the continents. On Page 29, our financial pillar demonstrate how we are creating value for our shareholders with strong revenues and EBITDA and dividends. Thank you very much for joining us today, everybody, and thank you again to our investors for their continued trust and support in our business. You can see that despite the challenges we faced in 2020, we still accomplished a great deal. I have said this before, cement is an essential building material with no viable substitute, and we are very fortunate to be successfully operating in the building material sectors across Africa. Africa is often referred as the next major growth market for cement. The very strong demand experienced across the continent in 2020 despite the COVID-19-related challenges confirms the very strong potential of these markets. As Africa's leading cement producer, we are uniquely positioned to meet the strong recovery and growth of the cement market as infrastructure and housing spending increases. We look forward to an exciting year ahead. Stay safe. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, Michel. We'll open the call for questions and answers, Steve.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Uwadiae Osadiaye of FBNQuest Merchant Banks.

Congrats on [ great ] results. I'd like to find furthermore on your pan African strategy. Where exactly do you see growth coming from in 2021? Is it expansion into new markets or growth from existing markets where Dangote cement is there already. Also, next financial, could you please give me guidance on clinker exports for the year. And what should we be expecting in terms of group volume growth and price changes for finished cement products for this year?

South African strategy. We are in growing markets. So number one, following the market growth is our #1 pillar of the strategy. Number two, Pan-African strategy goes with a saturation of Nigerian assets. So I guess, we give priority to grinding stations able to absorb clinker we will produce in Nigeria, like we did by exporting to Cameroon. So we have -- we plan to develop other sets of grinding stations in the neighboring countries in the same spirit. Saturating assets is critical in cement business. And you have seen in 2020 how efficient it was and translated into the results we have qualified as excellent. I guess, in a few words, this is the best I can tell you for the pan-African strategy and what drives it.

Next question is from Yassine Touahri of On Field Investment Research.

Yes. So I have a couple of questions. Could you tell us a little bit more about what current trends do you see in Nigeria in the first 3 months of the year, and in the rest of Africa other areas as well? And then second question is, are you confident that you could push prices in an environment where energy cost inflation is coming back, but where new capacity is coming onstream? And I think you didn't answer the last -- the last person had asked a question about your outlook for exports. Is it fair that you can export more volume in 2021, especially as Turkey is sold out? And then maybe a last question, if I can. Could you give us an update on the ramp-up of your operation in Ivory Coast, Niger and Liberia. Do you expect any revenue and EBITDA contribution from those 3 countries in 2021?

So the current trend in Nigeria, in the Pan-Africa, very strong. And Q4 was very strong, 2020, and Q1 is similar. This is what I can say at this stage, not being able to disclose Q1 results yet. In terms of pushing prices and impact of new capacity, look at what happened in 2020. We have been able to keep, let's say, to make it simple, we have been able to keep in U.S. dollar terms the prices, despite all what happened, good news, bad news, and we have also new entrants. So I can demonstrate what has been done. And I can wish that what we did, we can -- we are able to do it again. For export 2021, the question I did not answer because it's a trade-off between growing market in Nigeria, opportunities outside of Nigeria and the trade-off is optimized constantly. So there is not such a export target. The ramp-up for Ivory Coast and the 3 countries in Niger and Liberia, no revenue from this country in 2021 forecast.

The next question is from Onyeka Joseph Ijeoma of Vetiva Capital Management.

Congrats on the strong results. I just have a couple of questions. Last year, I recall that the buyback plan was to, recall, about 10% of share capital. Can we expect more buyback tranches this year? Also, can you give a bit more color on how the costs are affecting the operations? And then finally, you see that Senegal -- the Senegal [indiscernible] plant has already hit its channel capacity. Is there a plan? Can we expect an expansion this year, next year anytime soon?

If you allow me, I will invite Guillaume to answer you -- our CFO, group CFO, to answer you about the buyback.

Thank you, Michel. So on the buyback, maybe I should give a little bit of context around the percentage that you referred to. 10% is the legal limit that we have. We obviously comply with the regulations, so this is what was referred to. But then with this event, we did not disclose the specific targets in 2020 for this exercise. The actual outcome of our process was to end up with 0.24% bought back at the end of December 2020 against the target at 0.5% when we went to market. In terms of continuing this process, at the moment, the authorization we got from the regulatory authorities in Nigeria have expired. And we are still looking at options to work with programs such as the buyback of orders to return cash to the shareholders in different capacities outside of the -- or in addition to the dividend that we are proposing for 2020.

There are 2 other questions. So Ethiopia, very fortunately, conflict zone is very far from the plant. And as far as people and staff are concerned, no consequence on us. In terms of volume, I cannot -- I mean, we did not see any negative impact maybe because others have suffered and we enjoyed problems overhead. I cannot tell exactly, but the bottom line is no direct impact on us despite this conflict. Senegal, you're right, the [indiscernible] is reaching its capacity. However, we are able to improve by debottlenecking here and there. We are also able to supply Senegal with clinker when it needs, which was our first export in 2020. So for the time being, we are still able to supply the company with -- and the company's abilities to fulfill the market requirements, while we are preparing expansion and the best way to address it.

Next question is from Ayodeji Dawodu of Standard Bank Group.

Just a few questions, if you don't mind. And I want to find out, in terms of initiatives around alternative fuels, when can we start to see alternative fuels being incorporated into the energy mix in Nigeria. And also, I just want to say, has there been an update to any changes in the relative cost of coal to gas, given the depreciation we've seen in the Naira and its negative impact on gas costs. And also, if you could provide some guidance in terms of the relative cost of imported clinker and clinker supply from the Nigerian plants to South African plants, if you could. Thank you very much.

So the first question, sorry, you spoke about alternative fuel. So alternative fuel is definitely part of our strategy. I was expecting it to grow faster in 2020, but COVID-19 delayed and slowed down the investment. People could not come, okay, the usual difficulties everyone faced in 2020. We are -- we keep the pace now. And we have a very strong policy. It helps, of course, as it should be, fuel spent in local currency rather than coal in U.S. dollar. Of course, it's a no-brainer that we need to develop it. For the coal and gas, sorry, I'm not sure I got exactly your questions. You can repeat it. And for imported clinker, honestly, I would -- I'm sure that all these countries are [ wary ] for customs record and please refer to this record. So you get the answer, the official answer.

I'll respond to the other questions on coal and gas to you directly, just send me an email.

Next question is from Adedayo Ayeni of Renaissance Capital.

A couple of questions for me. Just if you could speak to the Zambian market, if you don't mind, the challenges in the market with the government not spending, does it look like it is a protracted period of no growth in cement demand. We saw the contraction last year. And what changes are you currently seeing now in the Zambian market, that's the first thing. Pricing in Nigeria, after the devaluation of currency, that's effectively affecting your dollar price in Nigeria backwards, right? So should we be expecting a price increase of somewhere at around 8% to 10% range, which pushes your pricing back in dollars in Nigeria to somewhat around $120 per tonne. Just generally, should we be thinking about that some time in the second half of the year or in the second quarter? The third question for me is really on the South African market. The government is talking about this infrastructure spending, which could be good for you and also positive for the entire industry as a whole. But you see how imports come in and this import sort of capping pricing, so to speak. So you raise prices, but everybody has to put in sort of like a material discount also that is pushing back pricing. What trend are you currently seeing in the marketplace now? Because just listening to one of your peers talk about the strategy in South Africa, the numbers coming out suggest that we are seeing material imports to come into market. So is that what we've seen and how is that affecting in terms of the pricing because your dollar pricing coming out of the South African market is somewhat at around $50 per tonne, and now the lowest across on your market. So if you could shed some light on that, that will be appreciated, and these will be the questions from me for now.

Okay. So Zambia, there are many ways -- I mean, many ways to answer you. First of all, where our plant is located, Zambia market is not the most relevant market for this plant. This plant exports maybe half of this production, but because this is a landlocked country and with no -- I mean borders are just [indiscernible] border, we have many -- we have natural, many customers outside of Zambia. So we need really to look at the local market around the plant. You call it Zambia market or you call it by the name of 1 of the 8 countries surrounding Zambia. This is the market we are selling to. And despite this, yes, of course, the economy downturn in Zambia, specifically, we have been able to push prices up and results in '20 -- in 2020, in Zambia were honestly very good. So the question is more complex due to this environment, leading us to export more than 50% of our sales. The pricing in Nigeria, you're very right. There was no price increase in 2020, but there was one in 2021, early 2021 by adjustment of the transport portion of the price. So it answers your question fully. In terms of South Africa, the question is, again, complex because during the COVID, right after the total lockdown, then after the COVID, some competitors had their difficulties, and we enjoyed a very strong demand not because of South Africa but because of our positioning compared to competition. And now you can see that the freight costs are going up, and I'm sure importers are facing challenges, importing massively into South Africa. For the time being, we cannot say that imports are a threat to our operation in South Africa.

The next question is from [ Avram Abedi ] of Investment One Financial Services.

I just have 2 questions. So looking at your results, I noticed the drop in Q4 revenue relative to Q3, about 4.16%. I like if you could put more color to that with regard product sales. But I understand that Q4, generally, I think, is expected to be a better quarter than Q3 so if you could put more color to that and if also it is good to somewhat point us towards what we're expecting, Q1 and Q2 2021. Then my second question is regards to the improvement we have seen in the OpEx sales ratio, I think as a result of cost optimization and measures that have thus been implemented throughout 2020. So I wanted to know if you could give us an idea as to what we should expect in 2021, can we expect further cost reduction in operations this year?

I will invite our group CFO to answer you, please.

Thank you, Michel. So when it comes to the Q3 2020, you might remember that was really a unique moment in our sales history will be at Nigeria or across our pan-African operations, in the sense that historically, we pretty much have a sort of low season moments during that time for all countries going through the rainy season, Nigeria included. In Q3 2020, we posted numbers which were above 30% growth compared to the previous year. And that was mainly the catch-up effects for the Q2, which was under lockdown in many of our key markets. The second dimension is also driven by the specific environment in which we operated in term of demand besides the rebound. We also have seen double-digit growth compared to the previous year, meaning that there were also different drivers in terms of spend. The other one which I would put on the Q4 versus Q3, but Q4 was still very strong and above the last year performance, the 2019 performance still compared to Q3, as you've seen, we remain a bit plateau or lower than what we achieved. So we see that as a relatively -- okay, not a trend, but more a very unique situation for the 2020 performance. [Technical Difficulty]

Ladies and gentlemen, apologies for the interruption. We will be resuming shortly. Please do stay on the line. We will be resuming shortly. Ladies and gentlemen, apologies for the delay. We have been rejoined by the presenters. Please continue.

Do we take a new question or should we speak on the last question?

We head up to where Guillaume is concluding his question -- his response.

Okay. So let's take the next question.

The next question is from Khalil Woli of CardinalStone Research.

So I think our question has consisted a whole list of questions had earlier. Going forward, across the full year, we noticed that there was a decline in haulage expenses despite increased volumes across the group. So I just want you to add more color on that. And should we expect that to continue in 2021? Also, you also noted that the increased volumes, especially in domestic market, was also [ caused ] by increase in real estate demand and then also the [ delays ]. Now that we've seen an operating [ use ] and also -- and basically, [ on pan-Africa ], do we see more demand in 2021? And do you also see Dangote also looking to do another version of the [ Bag of Goodies ] and of the promotionalities done earlier in 2020. I think that's all for me.

Thank you for your question. So in terms of haulage costs, there are 2 elements driving the reduction of the cost or at least optimization and the utilization of our assets across the continent. First, we have been working out to put -- and basically [ sweat ] all our assets as much as we can. So we have improved our logistic management overall. And one of the key factors that we look at is what we call the turnaround time, which is a KPI giving us a view on how much time it takes for our trucks to leave the plant and come back to close their trip and [ read ] out. And by optimizing our structure, our logistical arrangements in Nigeria and most of our countries of operation, we have improved since in a very material manner, our utilization of assets. Overall, there is also a benefit that we see that some of these assets are now fully amortized. So we also did not see in the cost base, which is reported in the haulage costs some of the depreciation related to it. The other segment, which is maybe related to the demand pattern. If I understood the question well. So basically, we know that there is a change in the overall yield structure, whether it be in Nigeria and eventually abroad. We've seen, I would say, the -- this change happening recently. So we cannot say that we can already factor the impacts. We know at this point -- obviously, last year happening at the same time, the increase of the demand are pretty much peaking, at the same time, the demand was also very high. I would say the overall market whether it be Nigeria or abroad remains very much driven by the housing demand. So we know that in the long-term plan on growth of Dangote cement across the continent, housing is a key driver, and it has been lagging... [Technical Difficulty]

Ladies and gentlemen, our apologies for the technical difficulties. We have been rejoined by our presenters.

Okay. Chris, next question. I think that's the final question from the phone before we move to a few web questions.

Of course. The last question then is from Dayo Ayeni from Renaissance Capital.

Just a follow-up on my side. So the first is on Ghana, right? In the result statement, you indicated that Ghana was not overly profitable for you or rather you tried to focus on more profitable markets. So why exactly is Ghana a challenge now, if you don't mind me asking. Was that because of the border that have been closed, but the border reopened and you also had access to that market. So what exactly is the problem with Ghana? That's the first. Secondly is the pioneer tax status in Nigeria, just if the CFO could shed some light, please. As I understand if the Obajana line 4 and Ibese line 2, I think, should be out of the pioneer tax status benefits, right, by the end of last year, 2020. So do we expect your tax rate in Nigeria now to begin to trend off, right? Just so we could see it close actually to [ 30, 32% ] level? And also, is there any clarity on when you are likely going to get the approval for the Obajana Line 5, just so you could start getting that benefit through the income statement. And the third one for me is also on your debt sources. You indicated that you have the Board approval to begin to look at forms of probably financing or longer-term source of debt funding. You do have -- you have quite a lot of debt maturing, close to about NGN 200 billion maturing in the next 1 year. A lot of those coming to in the second quarter and most towards the second half of the year. These long-term debt sources you're talking about, are we looking at you getting those done before? Just so you could get the proceeds in and when it's time for you to repay, you could just do a [indiscernible] a form of bridge financing. And that is -- yes, sorry, one last thing, if you don't mind, is on your staff salaries, specifically, on your [ per head basis ], your costs were up by 28.6%. If I take your average -- not average, year-end number of employees that you have, and I take your staff's salaries and other associated costs out of the line items. Did you -- what type of increase did you pass through because 20%, it seems quite strong if you don't mind me saying. That's all from my side.

Okay. So 4 questions, Ghana, pioneer status, debt, staff salary. I will take the first one and Guillaume, the CFO, will address the 3 other ones. For Ghana, it's very simple. Ghana is a bagging operation. So we have an integrated plan from limestone to cement. We have the grinding station from the clinker to cement. And you have the bagging where you receive cement, you put it into bags. Definitely, the bagging is the least profitable of all the three. So the problem of Ghana is a bagging unit. And this is why we decided to divert our resources and it's square, as simple as that. For the pioneer, debt and staff salaries, I invite our group CFO to answer you.

Thank you, Michel. So as far as pioneer status, all our lines active at the end of 2019, exiting the pioneer status end of February 2020. So as you rightly pointed out, we did not benefit from this status for most of the year. You can expect, obviously, for a consequence of that, that our tax rate will increase over time. However, you have to include in the picture of the tax rate of Dangote segment in Nigeria, the fact that export is benefiting from the specific tax status. So every time we allocate part of our production and sales with the clinker of cement to tax incentives, which are reducing the ETR of Dangote Cement overall, but there is a growth pattern that we will see coming on our pipe. For the new lines, this is a discussion with the authorities. And obviously, we are engaging them to continue supporting the cement industry in this direction to maintain our ability to support the overall growth of the market locally, but also to continue supporting the capacity to export by Nigeria of clinker of cement in the region. Now any comment? Sorry? So when it comes to the debt, what we have currently in sight is something similar to what we deployed in 2020. We issued the first one of NGN 100 billion in 2019 -- 2020, sorry, as a first step to [ lengthen ] our debt maturity. We are planning to do the same in 2021. The announcement made today will allow us to also start building on the interaction with the market at the same time, preparing with the regulatory authorities the necessary approval to engage appropriately and in due time, to also restructure the debt as necessary.

So we have a few questions on the web. I'll just summarize. Most of the questions have already been asked. The first one is the expected CapEx for the group over the next few years. The second question is what percentage of poor consumption can be replaced with idle waste and alternative [indiscernible]. We have a question on Bag of Goodies, the promotion, if it's going on in 2021? And third question is, were all the exports going through just 1 terminal? And what is the export plan for 2021? A question on -- the other questions have been asked. So we'll just answer those 4 questions from the web.

Okay. So for the CapEx, we basically maintained the same guidance than the one we issued during previous engagements. That we are planning to invest between, let's say, $800 million equivalent to NGN 1 billion over the coming 5 years, depending on the speed at which we can execute these investments. Part of it will occur in Nigeria and the bulk of which will occur outside Nigeria, as mentioned earlier, in terms of supporting our expansion strategy for the growth markets.

In terms of percentage of coal consumption, which can be replaced by alternative fuel. From a technical standpoint, 100% of it can be replaced. From a practical standpoint, of course, it requires CapEx. It requires collection of the waste, which then will lead to investments in trucking and availability of it. Because 5 lines in Obajana represent a massive volume of alternative fuel and the availability of it can be an issue. So this is the junction of all these constraints that we will find the answer. At this stage, we are not yet -- we have not yet started due to that few percentage points, but we will grow from 10%, 25%, 30%, then of course, we may see the waste limit. Well, I'm not yet in a position to give you a precise number. The exports, we have 2 terminals, both of them have been commissioned, one in Apapa and one in [indiscernible]. So the one in Apapa has been used already, 7 times in 2020, and we will definitely use the second one in 2021 when and if export opportunity comes. The Bag of Goodies, so this is the marketing initiative we took in 2020 and 2019. It's one, of course, the more significant one, but one element of the marketing strategy, not the only one, loyalty of retailers, the consumers, containers and many other options. Bag of Goodies is a critical one, being very successful in 2019 and 2020. Environment has changed in 2021, and we are yet to define the best mix of marketing actions for 2021.

Thank you. I think that's all the questions we're going to be taking for today, as the 1 hour time is up. If you do have additional questions or you want more clarity, please send an e-mail to Investor Relations, [email protected]. Thank you very much for joining this call, and we'll see you at the first quarter 2020 -- 2021 call. Thank you. Have a good evening.

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this event, and you may now disconnect.