DFDS A/S (DFDS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 13, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Søren Nielsen
executiveGood morning, and welcome to DFDS' Capital Markets Day 2023. Thank you for joining us here in Copenhagen and online. I'm Soren Brøndholt Nielsen, Head of Investor Relations, and I have a few practical remarks for online participants. We will have a Q&A session after each presentation. [Operator Instructions] And for the benefit of participants here in Copenhagen, Steffen Conradsen, our Landside Head of Health and Safety will give you a short safety briefing.
Steffen Conradsen
executiveThank you very much. I hope you can hear me. Welcome to DFDS. Should there be a need for evacuating the building, you will hear a loud pulsating sound, followed by voice announcement asking you to leave all your belongings behind and move towards the emergency exits. We have 3 emergency exits, one in each end of the building and one in the middle. They will take you down to the ground level out to the street, where we have 2 assembly points, one in that end, that is between our building and the neighboring building and one towards the very end of this building towards the [indiscernible], and you go to the nearest one, depending on where you are in the building. When you're in here, you should use the exit over here that take you down and then move to the left when you can have. And if you're at the other end, later on for lunch, you will take the exit there, move to the right and to the assembly point. If anybody of you feel why you're here contact one of the DFDS employees here, and they will assist you with either first aid equipment or we also have two defibrillators, one just outside the door here and one down at the reception. Otherwise, I hope we don't need it. We don't have any emergency [indiscernible] or planned [indiscernible]. So you should be in good hands.
Søren Nielsen
executiveThank you, Steffen. And with that, I hand over to CEO, Torben Carlsen.
Torben Carlsen
executiveThank you very much, Soren. A warm welcome to everybody here in Copenhagen and Online, investors, analysts, media alike. I have, together with my colleague, looked forward to this day. where we, of course, will have our favorite occupation, talking about DFDS. So looking forward to an informative day. The program contains 3 hours of content. There will be a lunch at around 12:40 where you will be seated together with DFDS representatives so that you can deep dive further into the topics that interest you. There will be a similar opportunity after the sessions at 3 o'clock for management mingle. Together with me today on stage will be Mathieu Girardin, who is heading our Ferry Division; Niklas Andersson, who is heading our Logistics Division; Martin Gade Gregersen, who is Head of our Cold and Dry Logistics; Anne-Christine, who is heading our People Division; Rune Keldsen, our CTO; Kasper Damgaard, Strategic Sales; Sophie-Kim Chapman, Head of our decarbonization organization; and Jasper Aagesen, who is heading our sustainable fleet projects team. I will first make a brief introduction to DFDS. Many of you obviously know who we are, but nevertheless, and then walk through Win23, the initiatives that were taken during the previous strategy period and where that has brought us today before I dive into our -- moving together towards 2030 strategy where we will focus on unlocking value and move the company to green. We operate ferry routes throughout Europe, bridging Europe and surroundings 20 freight ferries, connecting Turkey with Europe. Around 20 ferries connecting Continent U.K. and Scandinavia Continent, 15 or so ro-pax ferries operating in Baltic Sea and channel, 4 passenger ferries, one you see -- if you can see through the windows here -- out here, and then soon, we will add another 7 ferries in the [indiscernible]. Our logistics operations is centered around Northern Europe, both with transport and adjacent services, but also will transport work being done south of the circle you see here. We operate ferry routes, Ro-Ro, pure freight. We also operate combined freight and passenger routes, ro-pax, and we control and operate a number of the key terminal hubs in our network. On road, we move goods by truck and by rail, both full load and part load trucks. And these transport services are supported by logistics solutions; warehousing, cross-docking, customs, freight forwarding, packaging solutions, control towers, you'll hear more about what this means in our logistics presentation. So we move goods that travel by trailers or trailer equivalents. We move it on our ships, on road with our trucks and subcontracted trucks and on rail. Our customers are forwarders, hauliers, industrials, producers and retailers. We, of course, also move passengers in cars and on foot on our ferries. Financially, size-wise, we have seen a substantial growth in the previous strategy period, a CAGR of 13% on the top line with substantial growth in logistics, fueled by acquisitions, but also customer wins, a steady growth in the freight ferry arena and a relatively swift recovery in the passenger business post-COVID. Moving to the right, earnings. EBITDA in the three segments, Logistics have grown significantly, again, on the back of acquisitions, a very steady development by the freight ferry and, again, shift -- swift recovery in earnings and more in the passenger part to now at [ 1.2 ] and a total of just over DKK 5 billion EBITDA last 12 months. The period from '19 to '23 were categorized by high CapEx. We have taken delivery of 8 new buildings as a major part of those elevated CapEx. We've also made acquisitions notably in this period, it's HSF and McBurney that you can see in the middle blue color. ROIC, '19 was 7.5%. We had a severe dip during COVID, has now recovered and last 12 months, just over 8% ROIC. I'll come back to whether we are pleased with that. In terms of cash flow and financial leverage, our adjusted free cash flow has, of course, been lowered by this new building program and the associated cash during '19 to '22, but also significantly by COVID-19, which took away DKK 1 billion of cash both in '20 and in '21. The leverage likewise in '20 and '21 was elevated due to the COVID situation. But as you can see, we are very quickly able to bring it down in the policy range of 2x to 3x leverage that we have communicated since 2013, I think we introduced this. So that was just a brief overview of who we are. Let's look at the Win23 strategy period. We launched a 5-pillar growth strategy in '19 in Capital Market Day, organic growth through focus on certain verticals, digitization, expansion of our network and also delivery of the UN Ro-Ro business case, more value for passengers and environmental transformation. We have done exactly that created growth. We've added 5,000 colleagues. We have grown our revenues 13% per year from DKK 16 billion to DKK 27 billion and we grew the EBITDA to above DKK 5 billion as we predicted we would in 2019. We don't think it has been easy. We were hit by a Turkey recession in 2019 following the currency crisis right after the closing of the acquisition in '18. Covid hit in 2020, first, the full business, but in an extended period, the passenger business, in particular. Brexit was affected January '21. We have an extensive exposure to the U.K. We have managed that. We saw supply chain bottlenecks on the back of COVID and further accentuated by the very, very sad war in Ukraine and in '22 we've seen inflation and energy pricing hikes also on the back of probably both the supply chain bottlenecks after Covid and the war in Ukraine. Through these events, we have been an extremely reliable partner with our customers. It is very few things that we've had to cancel or divert or delay during COVID, for example, except for the passenger service that you see outside the door here. We control a lot of our assets, we control the operation, and that has given us a clear advantage and some customers even still remember it. We were able to sharpen our commercial focus speeding up a little bit the distinct way we approach our customers on the ferry side and our end-to-end customers, which will come back to the effects of later. We kept digitizing, realizing that, that was not a way out of our problems to scale down on cost in this area. We would need that coming out of Covid and the challenges. So we kept digitizing through the whole period. We also kept investing in the green transition through the whole period so that we -- on both those areas are well positioned now. As mentioned, we achieved the ambition of the DKK 5 billion. It was split in 3 boxes, organic growth and initiatives, the Mediterranean business plan delivered and acquisitions. With those results, we should, in theory, we have a result now of DKK 5.9 billion, that's not the case. There have been performance headwinds. I'll come back to what those are and also macro other headwinds and it's, of course, a little bit arbitrary how you divide those 2 boxes to the right. But the result is that we have the DKK 5.1 billion EBITDA that I mentioned just before. One way to show what the headwind means is to look at our EBIT margin. It has been lowered 3 percentage points during this period. 1/3 of that is just by the mere fact of our logistics business being a higher share of our overall revenues than it was 5 years ago and logistics, as you all know, have a lower EBIT margin. So that's 1/3 of the margin dilution. The 2 remaining percentage points is what we call a performance gap and it will not come as a surprise for those of you following us what it consists of. But there has been a third ferry operator entering the channel market that is also and has been in decline over this period, probably partly due to the Brexit situation impacting our results of probably around DKK 250 million. The impact from the wall and the heavily reduced volumes and therefore, also overcapacity accentuated by DFDS and other operators injecting new capacity plant before the war has caused challenges in the Baltic Sea. We then have 2 acquisitions where we do not deliver the 8% ROIC, that is our ambition, adding another couple of hundred millions to this performance gap. It's 2% on the margin. It's also 2% on ROIC as our invested capital and revenues are more or less at the same level. So it is the same impact to our ROIC as it is to the EBIT margin. So what have we done during this period. We have built scale, we build relevance for our customers, and we build capabilities. And now it's time to unlock the value from those qualities. I will first walk through what it is we have done for the business during this period and then talk about how we believe this will drive organic growth as we go forward. I will deep dive a little bit into the acquisitions. We like our acquisitions. As our share price has stayed stable at best, some investors have started wondering is it the investments that is causing this problem for the share price. We are not experts in share price. We think we are pretty good in transport. But we have a table here showing the impact of the acquisitions. And we have, in detail, show the 4 large ones, U.N. Ro-Ro in Turkey, HSF Logistics, McBurney and the recent announced FRS Iberia/Maroc showing the enterprise value and the last 12-month EBIT from those acquisitions and then lumped the remaining smaller acquisitions. And you'll see that we deliver DKK 1.2 billion of EBIT from these acquisitions that we have acquired an enterprise value of DKK 12 billion. We -- if we deep dive into some of them, UN Ro-Ro that I mentioned before is not delivering the ROIC of 8%. That is the minimum requirement for us. If we look at how you can also calculate the free cash flow, excluding finance in relation to the enterprise value shows a cash flow yield of 12%. If you look at the free cash flow, including finance in relation to the equity value paid for the acquisition, it's a 19% cash flow yield and then the one that we published and guide according to is the ROIC of 7%, which is reduced by right-of-use assets, et cetera, from accounting rules. But for us, of course, this has been an acquisition that has developed -- delivered what it was supposed to. Mathieu will later talk about what we will do to get it also to an 8% ROIC, but this is just a different view. HSF is behind the plan that we laid when we acquired the business and we used the same methodology as before for UN RoRo, we see that free cash flow in relation to enterprise value is a 7% return, free cash flow in relation to equity value and including finance costs is 10%. But on invested capital, it's 5% with some significant warehousing and other elements dragging down the ROIC. In the logistics section, you will hear what actions will be taken to get also here the ROIC back to 8% and closing the DKK 100 million gap I talked about before. Maybe more illustrative, I hear some of the smaller acquisitions we made very recently combined enterprise value of DKK 280 million. And as you can see, free cash flow of just under DKK 75 million last 12 months returns -- cash flow returns of around 25%, we'll pay back these acquisitions in 4 years. But in our accounts, they show up with 8% ROIC because they each have 10- and 12-year warehouse lease arrangements. Again, this is not to say that I need a [indiscernible] because we are not understood. This is just to give a little background for why we think these acquisitions have been pretty good acquisitions and smart investments, even though they may not move our ROIC in the right direction. So that was on the acquisitions. If we look more to the organic things we've done during this period, we've taken delivery, as I mentioned before, of 8 new buildings. We have acquired secondhand tonnage. And in combination, this has helped lower our unit cost and also fuel the organic growth we have had. We have added 18 contract logistics sites so that we now have an offering at scale in this arena. Replaced the largest order in the world for electric trucks a year ago, we now have 70 of those in operation, nobody operates more electric trucks than DFDS in Europe, maybe only in China, you can find somebody, and we'll continue the rollout. We have, in this period, increased the annual spend on digital by DKK 200 million to secure that we don't fall behind in that area, and you'll hear more about what we are spending the money on when [indiscernible] comes on stage. So what is then the resulting picture for DFDS? Well, we had 20 routes and 37 ferries in 2018. We now operate 28 routes and 65 ferries, significant growth. We had 7 terminals, small increase to 8, closed down [indiscernible], and added 2 in the Mediterranean. Rail connections, we didn't operate our own rail lines in '18. We now operate 8 rail lines plus an additional number of lines where we just has it as an offering to our customers. 38 logistics locations increased to 66 locations, warehouses from 17 to 35 warehouses, both cold and dry, offerings and customs opportunistically on the back of Brexit, we have increased 2 very small places to now more than 200 people and more than DKK 200 million of revenues. So today, we have an extensive network with a lot of relevance for our customers. And one way to measure that and Kasper and also my colleagues in Ferry and Logistics will later expand more on this. But we've gone from 7 enterprise accounts and enterprise counties where we have more than EUR 10 million of revenue to EUR 23 million -- now in '23 of that size, which, of course, is a completely different scale and ability to exploit that -- those capabilities. And all the top 10 enterprise accounts buy at least 3 of our products. So they are not just buying either a logistics service or a ferry crossing. What has also happened during this period is that we've increased our exposure to growth markets. If you look at Turkey, Morocco, Tokai, Morocco, Poland, 8%, 6.7%, 3.1% expectations over the next period versus central EU trade Nordics, much lower expected growth rates. We now have exposure to those high-growth markets that we didn't have in '18. We have reduced our exposure to the U.K. economy from 58% to 44%, not by reducing our activities in the U.K., but with the growth outside U.K. So we are well positioned to take advantage of the near showing trends in the less mature markets to the south, there are more greenfield opportunities for new ferry routes that we rarely find in the northern markets. Opportunities to further developing intermodal solutions, as I also demonstrated in the number of rail solutions and with very moving in new arenas, also opportunities to expand our logistics in those areas. So that's the status right now for DFDS. And now what I promised in the beginning, let's look at how to unlock this value that we think our network merits. What is it we are moving towards together in 2030? It's a reliable, efficient, ferry and logistics network for our customers. We have come a far away, but of course, we'll continue to develop the network. We want to be a great place to work for our people. We want to be a green transition leader for the planet. And we want, and that's maybe what interests you most today, we want to deliver value creation and stable returns for our investors. Our financial ambitions in the short term is to increase our ROIC to plus 10%. It is to have -- show capital discipline with CapEx of DKK 1.5 billion to DKK 2 billion per year, to deliver DKK 1.5 billion minimum adjusted free cash flow per year and to drive down our leverage to [ 2.5 ] gradually towards 2026. On the green transition, our greenhouse gas reduction targets remain 45% reduction in CO2 intensity from ferries and a 75% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity from our land activities. We have clear plans for how we achieve that. 2050 remains a net 0 ambition where we need help from new technologies and better understanding before we can clearly explain how we get there. So what routes are we taking to achieve these goals? Five routes that you will hear more about from my colleagues during the day, will protect and grow our profits. We'll standardize to simplify or digitize to transform. We'll move to green and will be a great place to work. Protect and grow profits will drive organic growth with this broader geographical and product reach that we have built. We will continue to focus on having a competitive cost base, will benefit from the high-growth markets that we have entered and we'll continue to develop the network stronghold. You will get more details from my division colleagues in Ferry and logistics. We'll standardize to simplify standardize our operating procedures to enable data-driven decisions in automation, we reduce complexities to secure efficiency and enable future growth, and we'll keep our local commercial autonomy but supported by globally aligned products and back-end services. We will digitize to transform the way we connect with our customers, reshape the way we operate and deploy a future-proof technology platform or platforms. We'll move to Green. The way we work with Green is we prioritize our decarbonization initiatives according to their long-term CO2 impact versus the dollar it costs, we will implement the agreed and developed initiatives to reach our targets. We'll continue to roll out of the [indiscernible]. We'll launch 6 green vessels during this period, and we'll develop commercial green products so that also customers are part of the journey. A great place to work for us means it's a safe place to work. It's a place that promote diversity, equity and inclusion and it's where we try to develop an engaging and caring leadership. You will hear more about that as well. So in conclusion, during Win23, we expanded the network. We built capabilities to make us relevant now towards 2030 will focus on unlocking the value during the next 3 years, continue to deliver on the acquisitions that we have already made. We'll accelerate our organic growth. I think I've demonstrated why we think that's realistic. And we'll deliver adjusted free cash flow of DKK 1.5 billion minimum per year. During the period from '24 to '30, we'll see 6 green ferries in operation from DFDS. You will see us delivering on our promise to reduce 75% intensity for our land activities by 2030. And we will continue to deliver the DKK 1.5 billion in adjusted free cash flow during that period as well. That was the first session. And I think I am on time. So questions?
Søren Nielsen
executiveQuestions from the floor here. Dan?
Dan Jensen
analystDan Togo, Carnegie. In which year do you see the DKK 1.5 billion free cash flow to be the most critical to obtain I mean...
Torben Carlsen
executiveThe most difficult?
Dan Jensen
analystYes, to obtain because we do see a quite drastic ramp-up in CapEx post '26?
Torben Carlsen
executiveAnd yes, you'll see it in the conclusion, we have some CapEx numbers actually for -- also the peers from '27 to '30 for the green transition. And there will be a need to look at how we finance some of these green investments when we get to '29-ish -- '28, '29, where we have significant payments on the 6 vessels and actually more vessels that then come later into the system. We don't see that with the growth that we have also assumed that we cannot deliver it.
Ruairi Cullinane
analystRuairi Cullinane, RBC. There are some scenarios I can envisage where net debt EBITDA would fall below 2.5x by the end of the forecast period. So I'm wondering if you think it will either be a sort of difficult period in which to grow EBITDA or if you are sort of allowing for a couple of deals even if that's less of a focus than in the past?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWe have, of course, the publicly known process with Ekol Logistics. And I'll come back to that, that would increase our leverage if that came through by 0.2-ish in the leverage and with an EBITDA of [ DKK 5 billion, DKK 5.5 billion, ] this is taking out DKK 1.2 billion of distribution capability, you could say, initially. But to -- you're absolutely right, if we were not distributing capital, we would fall way below 2.5 by '26. So we are assuming that we also have a quite significant distribution of capital to investors in this period, if that answers your question.
Lars Heindorff
analystLars Heindorff, Nordea. I mean, historically, you've been quite sort of focused on driving growth through acquisitions, it all seems more sort of organic. Can you elaborate a little bit on the sort of M&A strategy going forward?
Torben Carlsen
executiveCertainly, I hope I was able to demonstrate that we've also created value through these acquisitions. We now have a ferry network that is fairly complete in Europe, Mathieu will talk more about that. Of course, there can be black holes. And if opportunities arise in the ferry arena, we would look at that. In Logistics, with or without Ekol, we have a strong network, and we can see and you could see it with the enterprise accounts that we are now sometimes winning tenders where we get as much revenue as we in the past would get from an acquisition. So we think that would be the preferred path. Will there be opportunities where we think this makes absolutely sense. I showed you before, cash flow yields of 25% if it fits exactly in our system. Yes, you will also see that, but there is a clear shift, as you have also noted from focus on growth from acquisitions to organic growth in the coming period.
Michael Vitfell-Rasmussen
analystMichael Rasmussen from Danske Bank. During this year, you have so far done a sale of 3 vessels, which you've then leased back on a 5-year period. Does these plans, including your targets include more sale and leasebacks? And maybe if you can just elaborate a little bit on the impact from that going forward.
Torben Carlsen
executiveWe have, over the last years, ended up with a much higher share of ownership, especially in our vessel fleet than we had in the past. And this sale leaseback of 3 ferries was an element to reverse that trend a little bit. So I do expect that more sale-leaseback will happen over the next period. It is not a prerequisite, at least not in the first 3, 5 years to reach the adjusted free cash flow that I talked about.
Unknown Analyst
analystMarcus [indiscernible]. You talked a little bit about the mix between logistics and ferry revenues and how it had changed so that you now generate more revenue in the logistics network. Is there a perfect mix between ferry and logistics revenue?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWell, logistics, of course, should grow as much as they can organically. When we talk about the strategic rationale for having both divisions, then for me, the perfect mix is that logistics sell, let's say, between 15% and 25% on specific routes. And that's a situation that we have primarily where it's the Ro-Ro services, so from Sweden to the continent to U.K., from Holland to the U.K. that we have achieved that. This gives us a lot of capabilities and protection in downturns. Other than that, you've seen and you will hear about the 7 core products in logistics that will be grown. And as long as we can do that profitably and create the returns I think there's no limit to that as long as we stay focused in the areas that we have jointly decided to stay within.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. You have this ROIC target of minimum 10% now compared to currently around 8%. So which parts of your business has the largest uplift potential. And in that context, also, I noticed HSF acquisition ROIC of 5%, what needs to happen in this acquisition forward to rerate to 10%?
Torben Carlsen
executiveYes. The big drags on ROIC is, as I mentioned before, the [indiscernible] situation and the Baltic situation. And then we have the 2 acquisitions, UN Ro-Ro and HSF, who need to deliver DKK 100 million more each to reach the 8% mark where we can relax a little at least. And I think actually, I will leave it for Mathieu and Martin to give some more details on their plans to get to those levels. They will come a little bit later and have slides on it.
Dan Jensen
analystDan, Carnegie, again, here. Just a follow-up. On the investment in vessels from '27 to '30, when I look at the price, so to say, [indiscernible] it seems quite expensive and to invest into this green transition. What sort of confidence do you have that customers will pay for this? And can you explain maybe a bit -- elaborate a bit about this investment in these 6 vessels? Why does it seem so relatively high?
Torben Carlsen
executiveI can certainly do that and Jesper can also add when he joins the stage. The reason that maybe the average price seems high is that in the mix that we have entered here are also quite expensive ro-pax ferries both on the channel and general ro-pax. So -- and then we expect that there is an elevated price due to the new fuels, 10%, 15% over a traditional ferry. Will the customers pay for this? We believe so. . There are -- and again, you will hear more about it, but there are regulatory things in place now from especially EU, that means that if you don't go green, there will also be an elevated cost for customers. So actually, embedded here are channel ferries on battery and battery is the one new fuel that we can actually change to without elevated operating costs. You still have the CapEx, but operation, it's as cheap or maybe even cheaper to operate a battery ferry than a black fuel ferry. So we believe with this scale, first of all, it means that we will deliver on our 45% reduction. And secondly, we think we can still generate the cash that I talked about. And it is also possible to deploy these ferries in places where customers will indeed pay for. It's the channel where the OpEx will not increase. It's ro-pax where it is today, ferries that probably go on marine gas oil. So the uplift is less than if it comes from HFO. And then it's freight ferries in Gothenburg, where we have customers that have shown the highest desire to pay for green solutions so far.
Søren Nielsen
executiveWe do have online question from Lars Heindorff from Nordea, what kind of macro backdrop have you factored into your 10% '24 to '26 ROIC target?
Torben Carlsen
executiveThat's, of course, a good question. We have taken the current economic projections that we have been able to find from different sources. So we do have embedded a tough '24 and maybe back to the question from before, '24 is a tough year also from a cash flow generation perspective. And then we expect more normal growth rates the ones you saw intra-Europe, a couple of percentage points and then higher growth rates in our growth markets, Turkey and Morocco.
Søren Nielsen
executiveAre there further questions from the floor here? Otherwise, this -- we have time for a follow up. Can you reach 10% ROIC in '24 to '26 with unchanged volumes both with regard to passengers and freight?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWe are not assuming unchanged volumes. We are assuming that we grow at least with a factor of GDP. And hopefully, we can do a little bit better. And hopefully, you can also see that when you hear more about these organic growth positions that we have. But we have not factored in a 0 growth for 3 years then we cannot achieve the targets.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB, follow-up again. What have you assumed in terms of invested capital? Should that be also increased slightly or what do you think about that?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWe are not sharing details on that, like, but obviously, there is a development also in invested capital.
Ruairi Cullinane
analystWhy would 2.5x net debt EBITDA be the right level of leverage if green investments are going to step up towards the end of the decade?
Torben Carlsen
executiveI don't think there is a right or wrong. We have this guidance range of 2x to 3x. We have for a while now been at the higher end, we sense that at least some of our investors have felt that, that may be a little uncomfortable with the interest environment we have today. We don't think that it is something that stresses our business. But of course, with the higher interest rate, with the capacity that we generate.,, We've said we want to go towards the mid-range of that 2x to 3x. And then we have modeled it all the way to 2030, of course, a lot of things can happen macro-wise, but it seems that, that is a comfortable level to also be able to deliver on the promises on the green transformation.
Søren Nielsen
executiveGreat. I think we can end the Q&A here. And then move on to the Ferry strategy with Mathieu Girardin, Head of our Ferry Division.
Mathieu Girardin
executiveGood morning. It's my pleasure to be here. We have 20 minutes to [indiscernible] look at the ferry strategy for DFDS. So during this 20 minutes, we will go through a performance review of the Ferry Division. We will look at where we have seen some strong performances in the past years. We will look as well where we some see performance gap and how we can bridge them in the coming future. We will also look at what is our ambition for 2030 in terms of unlocking the value of our network, which has been completed now. It's pretty extensive network. We'll look at that again. And we will look at how we can continue to grow to expand the network with a higher focus on organic growth. But before we do that, before we jump straight into this, let's look at what is the Ferry Business Model of DFDS today. I think it's interesting to look at the value proposition for our customer. What makes Ferry business in DFDS unique for our customers and where -- what are the main characteristics of a strong route for the DFDS in ferry business. First, we need to have terminal control. It's critical that through direct ownership or long-term concessions, we make sure that we keep control of the best slots in our terminal. It means that it's very different if you operate departure at the end of the day and you arrive in the morning versus if you have to leave between midnight and 6 a.m. So this control over the terminal slot, this control over the capacity is extremely critical and we have done that in most of our strong routes, especially in the [indiscernible] division. We also need to gain advantage of the vessel size, basic unit cost, the bigger the vessel, it's a size game, so the bigger the vessel, the lower the unit cost. And in DFDS through the latest investment that Torben referred to, the [indiscernible] deployed in the North Sea and in the mid. We have this size advantage. We also have it with the new GSI OpEx, two vessels deployed in the Baltics where, unfortunately, the demand is not there. I will come back to that, but the unit cost is also an advantage in this area. We have scale on our network. What does scale mean? It means that basically, we can have multiple departure per week especially if you think about competing with container lines or if you think about matching the flexibility of truck transport, we have this on several of our routes. We have this since we acquired UN Ro-Ro in Turkey. We have a daily departure from Istanbul [indiscernible]. This is unique on the market. We also have in the U.K. in [indiscernible] our biggest [indiscernible] company I have heard in the U.K. Connections to Sweden, to Denmark, to Netherlands and to Germany on a daily basis. And this makes this network unique and also a high barrier to entry for potential competitors. We also need, in order to continue to maintain the strong goals on the routes. We need high cargo concentration. Back to the discussion on logistics and ferry synergies. This is where logistics cargo control plays a big role on our routes. We have internal partnerships with DFDS Logistics. We also have external partnership with the largest hauliers, [indiscernible] freight forwarders, which are the traditional customers of the Ferry Division. And we have grown, together with DFDS Logistics, industrial customers, where we can expand on Logistics products, but we can also expand on ferry because we have the scale now, we are everywhere in Europe. We have the possibility to refer to these large customers, both Morocco, Turkey, North Europe connections, which is quite unique versus our competitors. We also operate in some regulated routes, market-regulated routes. The best example for that right now is the [indiscernible]. It's a concession basically. It's going to be relatively similar with the upcoming acquisition of FRS Iberia/Maroc. We operate under licenses, exclusivity agreements, licenses, either for the port concession or for the vessels themselves where somehow we guarantee an exclusivity and a certain return on those routes. And so with those five characteristics, you have basically, the strong pillars of making sure you have strongholds in the ferry business, and we do have, in most of our routes, this unique value proposition for our customers. So with this business model in mind and those characteristics in mind, DFDS has, overtime, developed or acquired Ro-Ro and ro-pax routes -- ferry routes all over Europe, creating what is today, a very dense, very extensive, ferry network. But let me take you through the various hotspots of this network where we see some performance upside and where we see some strongholds, which have been delivering performance over time. Let's start with the channel. Again, probably nothing new for most of you following DFDS. The channel route -- Eastern channel routes between Dover and Calais, France and U.K., where both Brexit and COVID hit in the past 3 years, demand remains relatively weak on those routes. You see the freight market on the left part of the slide, going down structurally and over time on those routes. This decline is accentuated in the past year with a very high inflation in the U.K. And probably more importantly, there has been the entry in 2021, in June 2021 of a third ferry operator on this route, which has added capacity. That's an illustration on the right part of the slide of the 7 vessels that we are deployed by 2 operators in early '21. Now we have 10 vessels deployed on this route. And recently, one of our competitors has also upsized the size of the vessel, bringing new buildings with much bigger capacity. So in this context, the supply demand is quite unbalanced, and it explains why we have this DKK 250 million EBITDA performance gap on the channel. What we do in this context? We have first launched on the back of Brexit, this opportunity to launch a new route between Dunkirk and Rosslare, bypassing the U.K. to give a direct connection between France and Ireland. And we are also fighting in order to defend our shares and focus on our cost in order to defend our profitability. Something relatively similar with less magnitude is occurring due to the war in Ukraine in the Baltic area where we see demand strongly affected by the war, but also a very what we characterize here as the economic winter in Sweden. The demand is particularly low because of those 2 factors. So here, again, we have in the Baltics performance downside that we think we can recover once the market goes up, hopefully, the war ends relatively soon, and then we can expect to bridge this performance gap estimated at DKK 150 million. Here again, we look at optimizing capacity, reallocating our ships, our assets so that we make sure we match supply and demand, depending on the route in the best possible way. We have this flexibility, but it's a difficult environment to deal with. On a more positive note in the North Sea, we have pure Ro-Ro services, the ones especially I mentioned between Immingham and East Coast of U.K. with Continent, Denmark, Scandinavia as well as Scandinavia, Sweden, Gothenburg into Belgium. On those routes, the performance since 2 years has been quite steady and quite positive, with even if we had a challenging year in 2023 with volumes. We have maintained a ROIC performance above 15%, which is a solid performance. We can continue to develop with optimizing always the capacity and the utilization. We're looking at operational excellence, that's an area where we control most of our terminals. We have our own crew, we can improve always turnaround time of the vessel and reduce our cost on the terminal side. And in this North Sea area, we also have quite a large cooperation with DFDS Logistics. And we believe there are more synergies, especially with industrial customers to develop further the growth and then, by consequence, optimize utilization. In the Mediterranean area, Torben mentioned it, we are not where we want to be in terms of ROIC. We are getting closer to 7%. Interesting to note that we have increased significantly since the acquisition of U.N. Ro-Ro. The important part is we have a clear action plan in place in order to get to 8% and probably higher as from 2026. Based on volume growth, we estimate 5% CAGR of volume on the Mediterranean area, of course, higher growth than what we can see in North Europe. We have proven, especially this year that there is a possibility to increase significantly tariffs in the BU Med. We have also some work to optimize on capacity and utilization -- there has been some congestion in the Mediterranean, especially in Turkey in the aftermath of the earthquake of February. We believe that there is room here to do better. Just like operational excellence, [indiscernible] development. We see -- we always have a couple of projects ongoing in the Med, which should bring additional ROIC to this picture. And we believe that our invested capital should remain stable. Of course, the depreciation of the ship will decrease invested capital, but we believe we need to invest as well in order to secure capacity, especially on the terminal side. So we have a plan in place for the Med. And last but not least, this new upcoming acquisition of FRS Iberia/Maroc, that's a strategic development for the DFDS as we will enter a high-growth, freight and passenger markets. FRS Iberia is operating on 3 routes, 7 vessels. Two routes are high-speed craft, Tarifa to Tanger Ville as well as Algeciras to Ceuta and the big highway streets that we are targeting for freight growth is Algeciras-Tanger Med, and with this new acquisition, we believe we have an opportunity to tap into the growth of the freight on the back of the near-shoring trend. I will come back to that in a few minutes. So that, ultimately, we can develop our freight business from Morocco into EU. We have already started some fleet synergies with FRS Iberia/Maroc with battery [indiscernible] being deployed as a [ shared ] ro-pax on this route. And we believe, again, that there will be more space for additional capacity with a 10% CAGR on freight market expected in the coming 10 years from Morocco to the EU. Despite the headwinds and thanks to the solid performance of some routes -- DFDS ferry division has managed to perform over the past 5 years. At a high EBITDA margin between 22% during the hardest year of COVID in 2020, up to 27%, while continue to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% per year. Our average ROIC or ROIC has been done, obviously, Torben mentioned that during the COVID period, especially. Last year, we were at 10%. We are at 9.9%. We expect be at -- we were at 9.9% in the last 12 months. So we maintain a pretty solid ROIC quite in line with the group target. With that, we have now a pretty exhaustive pretty extensive presence in Europe. And somehow, we feel that with the FRS acquisition coming up, we will have an exhaustive network, which will enable us to focus on unlocking the value of this network, which means in parallel that probably our acquisition strategy will be limited to opportunities to fill the black holes in this network. So that's a change of paradigm and we will obviously focus much more on organic growth and leveraging the scale of this network in our strategy towards 2030. What is our ambition towards 2030? Well, first of all, we will focus on unlocking value. How we are going to do that? We are going to focus on cost. We are going to focus on just on operational excellence by reducing our cost to serve modernizing our system, digitalizing our system making sure that we standardize our processes across the network that all our acquisitions use the same tools, the best-in-class technologies and systems so that we reduce our cost across the network. This starts, by the way, by reducing our bunker consumption. We have a pretty good track record on this over the past years. We are going to continue to do that by slowing down our ships by investing in retrofitting our existing fleet from the propellers and the burbs and air lubrication projects so that ultimately, we consume less bunker, will reduce our unit cost and we improve our CO2 emissions. We will also intensify synergies with DFDS Logistics. We can be more resilient when the market is done. It's the case right now, it's been the case for the past months. so that we make the best decision in the interest of the DFDS group. We can also be more seizing more opportunities when the market is up. And this happens by being more collaborative, including with the new units acquired or new acquisitions made recently with the DFDS Logistics. Ultimately, we can offer more competitive end-to-end solutions together with ferry and logistics, which can include multimodal solution, including rail, which is a big area for potential growth in the coming years. And we will as well pioneer green transition. We mentioned 6 vessels to be deployed by the end of -- 6 green ferries to be deployed by the end of 2030. But we start already now what I just mentioned regarding the reduction of our speed, the reduction of our bunker consumption. This has a real impact just like the short-term CapEx investment to retrofit our fleet. So with that, we believe there is value to be unlocked on the network, and we are going to focus on that in the coming years, but we will not give up our expansion. We think that there are still opportunity to pursue growth -- top line growth in a profitable way for DFDS ferry. First, we now have with U.N. Ro-Ro becoming Mediterranean BU soon with FRS Iberia/Maroc becoming Strait of Gibraltar BU. We have some very strong platforms to tap into nearshoring markets. And this will enable us to launch new routes on the back of this near-shoring trend that we can deep dive on. We are very well positioned on the 2 largest growth markets in the Mediterranean area. We included Poland here as well. We know that we have some strong logistic volumes and logistics business in Poland, and that can also be an area where we develop our flows ferry business in the future. So with that in mind, we have some room for growth and for new routes for expansion based on those platforms in the nearshoring hubs. We also have the opportunity. I mentioned [indiscernible] event. That's a very good example of where we could compete on some regulated markets or concessions for attractive and profitable routes. And this can be a very interesting add-ons to our network where we have the right to win because DFDS is recognized as a strong brand with a huge operational expertise by these authorities providing concessions. So we have the opportunity to scale DFDS network by competing for this market and these concessions. And we can develop and expand our network by launching new routes on the back of model shift. What does it mean? It means that some of our customers, especially the industrial customers with whom we have deepened our relationship using our logistics division and ferry network. We can basically work with them in order to launch new routes that will be based on a model shift, meaning break bulk, perk, container, car carriers, activities or vessels being stopped and transferred on to trailer or trailer equivalent units, on wheels units that we can, of course, welcome on our vessels. So there is a significant area for development, and we have some sort of business cases under study for this part. With that, I think you understood, we are adapting our strategy to focus much more on our existing network and unlock the value and also continue to focus on top line growth by expansion. So from the Win23 extensive network that has been achieved, we will focus on this unlocking value for the coming 2 years, operational excellence, synergy with DFDS logistics and new route developments. And we have already started. We will continue to develop the green transition with the target of deploying these 6 ferries, 2 ammonia, 2 methanol and 2 electric battery powered by the end of 2030 as much as we continue our efforts to standardization and digitization of our processes, which will ultimately lead to productivity gains on our network. I think we have some time for Q&A right now.
Dan Jensen
analystDan Togo, Carnegie. Which routes do you see have is at the most risk of alternative competitors kicking in, it could be a ferry operator. It could be on the land side. So where are the risks, the highest at the moment? And what can you do to mitigate?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveI think the route where we see a lot of competition right now is in the Baltics between Kiel and [ Glyfada ] on those type of routes, you always have to make sure that your pricing and your service is very competitive versus truck or road alternative or even rail alternative for this particular case. So that's especially because the demand is down and there is capacity available both on the ferry side and on the tracking side definitely, that's one of the routes where we see some pressure. And it explains as well why we had this performance gap also in the Baltics. We see a lot of pressure as well on the channel on the Dover-Calais route. Nothing new here. The situation is very tense since 2021. The capacity is up, the demand is down. So of course, we find quite an unbalanced situation. The way we mitigate that is continue to offer what we consider as the best possible service. And that means also in the channel, especially entering in a partnership with one of our competitor to provide more frequent sailings and compete better with the new entrant and the tunnel. And on the Baltics, that's looking at our costs, making sure we deploy the best unit cost vessel in order to provide the best service in the most profitable way for our customers.
Dan Jensen
analystWhat about the Med?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveThe Med is always at risk. But if you think about the second slide, and you remember those 5 characteristics. In the Med, we more or less control 4 of them out of 5. It's not a market regulated, but we control the port. We have the biggest vessels. We have the cargo control. Hopefully, even more so soon with Ekol coming in. And we definitely have the scale. If you want to enter the Med tomorrow and you want to compete with DFDS. You have to have a daily service between Istanbul and Trieste. It doesn't mean that it's guaranteed forever, but this means that the barrier to entry is pretty strong.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. We saw quite a big step-up in the return on invested capital in the North Sea segment between '22 and '21 of 5 percentage points. Can you just elaborate what happened in that yes, during that period? And to what extent this bunker spread tailwind that you saw impacted that step-up?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveYes. I would need to look into the details of that. I think rightfully, there's been some upside, thanks to the bunker level. I think as well, there must be some effect, and that's what I don't -- where I don't know the details regarding the decrease on the invested capital for this area. But also, I think -- more and more, we have seen, especially on Gothenburg to Belgium on this kind of route, some possibility to increase the EBITDA and the margins. And this has been delivered consistently by the North City. So we have here as well quite a strong position. I would need to come back to you to give you the full detail on the breakdown to reach 15 points.
Michael Vitfell-Rasmussen
analystMichael Rasmussen from Danske Bank. So 2024, if you could add some comments on the channel. How do you expect to mitigate the potential risk that there would be a price difference versus the ferry routes and the tunnel given the implementation of the ETS?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveWell, I think, first of all, on the ETS implementation on the channel versus our competitors, we have a fleet that is -- especially versus the last one we entered, we have a fleet that is rather competitive. And the first indication on ETS prices, which have been made public is quite encouraging for DFDS, that's one. Number two, we look at our cost. We will not give away shares on the market shares in the channel, we will not be disappointing for our customers who have been staying with us over time on this route. So we will look at our cost and try to optimize. We have started to do that. We can do that in cooperation with another operator, and we can do that stand-alone. So we have some room to improve. And then we don't make any assumptions in these scenarios regarding what could happen on the competitive situation, but we will fight this battle looking at our cost and maintaining quality of service for our customers.
Michael Vitfell-Rasmussen
analystSo you haven't seen any short-term impacts from the tunnel lowering the EBA whilst the most ferry operators have been lifting the above?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveActually, quite the contrary, if you look at -- and it's public data, if you look at the market shares from the tunnel versus the whole ferry -- the 3 ferry operators, we see some pretty nice developments on this part.
Ruairi Cullinane
analystRuairi Cullinane, RBC. I think the 2018 CMD, there were some slides on the industry order book of Ro-Ro and ro-pax ferries. So I was wondering if that caused you any concern or how that looks over the next few years? And perhaps linked to that, we have seen a decline in utilization. Do you think anywhere in your network, you've got too many ferries?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveThat's a fair question. And obviously, as you can imagine, the utilization is something we look at and the capacity adjustment utilization is something we look at on a daily basis. So on your first question, it's actually relatively limited order book when it comes to Ro-Ro vessels in the coming years. I'm not talking about car carriers, I'm specifically talking about Ro-Ro vessels. We have seen some ro-pax vessels being ordered recently, but I think we will we will also get to the point where we will have our own order book and be able to maintain, if not develop our shares at the end of the strategy period. And so I'm not particularly worried about that to answer your question.
Unknown Analyst
analystWill higher road taxes in Germany and elsewhere in Continental Europe open new opportunities for you to move trailers from Scandinavia to the southern part of Europe, let's say, Spain?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveWell that's a long route from Scandinavia to Spain. I know some competitors are offering this route. What we see is that it's definitely something we monitor closely in order either to attract more business or to uplift our prices because this is, as I said to the previous question, this is exactly the type of competition we are monitoring. We also need to be mindful of starting a new route from scratch from Scandinavia without having the back of a large industrial customer. Then, of course, you add significantly, you have a threshold effect on capacity. And this, we just need to manage and be a bit careful about that in order not to deteriorate profitability of the Ferry Division. But definitely, that's something we look at. If you look at ETS, there will be a delay between the ETS for shipping and the ETS for road or the equivalent ETS for road. So then we need to be mindful of this gap as well. There might be a small delay in the coming years. But that's precisely what we monitor. And if we see opportunities, we will secure tonnage and develop some new routes.
Unknown Executive
executiveRight. We will close this Q&A with an online question here from Lars Heindorff, Nordea, around greenfield investments. Can you give some indications on CapEx, what CapEx will be in connection with greenfield operations? And what kind of earnings profile for greenfield will be acceptable in light that it normally takes 1, 2 years for new routes to mature?
Mathieu Girardin
executiveI don't expect special CapEx for that. Let's be clear that it's the way we look at greenfield opportunities if we have a solid business case, we secure tonnage and probably on a bareboat charter type of mode or time charter and then we launch the route. So profitability rightfully mentioned in the question, we have to give us some time to ramp up and get to a certain profitability level. But those greenfields, there is no intention that ultimately the deteriorates ROIC. For me they have to be performing at least at 10% after the ramp-up period. And that's the criteria we use in order to decide whether to go or not for a new route or greenfield operation.
Søren Nielsen
executiveGreat. Thank you very much, Mathieu. And we're going to move on to the Logistics division. And to take us through that, we have Niklas Andersson, Head of Logistics division, and you will later be joined by Martin Gade Gregersen, Head of Dry and Cold Logistics.
Niklas Andersson
executiveThank you, Soren. So time for a Logistics session. It's a pleasure to be here to present a growing logistics division. So today I will take you through what we are doing, actually, how we got there and in the future as well for the strategy, what are we going to do for the next coming years. Tobin showed this slide before. This is in a nutshell what we do. The base is that strong assets on ferry connected with our road and rail services. That has been the backbone of the DFDS for a long time. What we actually have seen as well is that we -- with the strong network we have, that has enabled us to go more into the logistics solutions by the strong customer activities we have with the growing strategic customers. On the flip side, we actually see as well that when we have a logistics solutions, we were able to gain more traction with more industrial customers. We invited to more tenders to more talks customers about new business. So we see as well in the market we are in today, as a major ferry and logistics company operating across Europe, you've seen the maps. We see that all the customers are actually reacting a little bit to the macroeconomic factors and climate are focusing a lot of the risk mitigation. They're looking increasingly demand of reliable, flexible end-to-end solution and supply chain transparency. And that is what we can do in DFDS together with ferry and our own network. So in the past years, I will come into that later as well. We have increased the product portfolio with a full range of logistics services, which you will see on the 7 core products Torben talked about as well. And this just gives the customers a one-stop shop and meet the market's demand for robust supply chain. So that's a little bit on what we do. What have we done then? If we look at the past 5 years, we have almost doubled our geographical footprint across Europe, but in particular strengthen in Northern -- Northwest Europe, where we also have some of our biggest industrial clients and where we have ferry routes connecting to our road network, giving us a lot of strength. The intensity and the high coverage in Northern Europe makes us able to grow with our customers and increase and further strengthen our stronghold. And you can see, of course, it's the same footprint. We have a little bit in Central Europe down in Southern Europe as well, but it is in the northern parts, connecting to our fair network -- significant growth. Torben talked about that as well. It is just visible. We have more than doubled our revenue. It's 25% per year. And actually, the earnings as well, when you look at the EBIT, has had a CAGR of 34% during this period as well. We had a 3% margin have moved to 4.1%. We're extremely pleased with that, but we still believe there are untapped potential in the network for harvesting even more scale benefits with the new enhanced strong network. And the focus is unlocking value from that. You would hear unlocking a lot of times. You heard it in the previous presentation as well, but that is what this is all about. So looking into the future, moving together to what 2030. Torben talked about it as well. We have built our strategy on 5 different routes. They are equally important for us. We need to ensure that we can attract and retain and engage a skilled workforce. We need to keep being frontrunner or in the front row of the green transition, and we need to standardize to digitize, to enable profitable growth. My colleagues later on will focus on the 4 pillars or the routes on the right. So me and Martin will actually focus a little bit more and deeper into the protect and grow our profits. In Logistics, in that route, we have looked at 4 different strategic initiatives. Protect and grow the core. That's a lot around our [indiscernible] products will come into them later and also expand in selected markets. The expansion is always together with ferry, either ferry goes first with the route or logistics goes first with volumes. But the strength of DFDS is when we do it together, collaboration. As we grow, we continue to optimize, we can harvest scale benefits of our own margins and improve the margins and large strategic customers who want to expand the solutions we have, which is on the right side of the first slide, so we can bundle with our core products as well. And we see that as well with our customers. Bundling is something that our customers want. We want to improve the collaboration across [ road and rail ] network that's part of DFDS Logistics, where we have acquired companies. Now we really need to get the collaboration working. It works well. We can do more and also with ferry and just harvest the commercial scale benefits we have there. So protect and grow the core and looking at the core product, you will see full of transport. I think you all know about the full of transport contract logistics, a lot with our warehouses, enhancing the services to our existing customers. Customs. I will come into that a little bit later, part of transport and freight forwarding. Now Martin will take you through a little bit more about the control towers and the packaging.
Martin Gregersen
executiveYes, we see very big traction on control towers with a lot of our clients. The last year has been growing more and more, both from 2PL Solutions and 3PL and also some getting very close to some 4PL Solutions. We experienced at least the last 6 months that clients are moving more and more towards getting us to take over the control and help them to do their logistics also to take over some of the assets and to come in with more of our packaging. Then we have the reusable packaging. What is also growing a lot. We are having a -- as we see ourselves a very unique system where we are from when the reusable packaging are leaving our warehouse, the clients are starting to pay the rent. So they pay the rent for the whole cycles. And we actually are able to bind together the need from the slaughterhouses and others to use our packaging, but also on the customers, the clients, often our clients actually binding it together. We have washing facilities on more locations we're having repair. So it's all binded together that we have actually the control not only about the end user of the product but also in the start.
Niklas Andersson
executiveThank you, Martin. So looking a little bit, this slide, we try to show a little bit what we're trying to do. We have grown significantly, as you saw in the previous slides. And we always have encouraged the entrepreneurship, which has taken us where we are today. However, we also need to acknowledge that we need to standardize. We need to get all these what we have tried to build the recent years, the 5 years to be one DFDS Logistics. So we have find 7 areas, a little bit combination with the core products where we actually will have started center of excellences. This is where we gather expertise, which can support the local businesses and responsible for streamlining processes across. This is super strong for us to do that. And to make this initiative a little bit more concrete, I will actually briefly take you through the journey of our customs activities. So when Brexit -- when we saw the vote, a lot of entrepreneurs throughout the system within DFDS were okay. Here, we need to do customs. A lot of entrepreneurs started up. And we -- when it came in force by 1st of January, DFDS immediately saw some significant amount of customers requesting the customs activities as well. So Torben showed the picture as well. We had 2 offices prior to Brexit. Now we have 14. That also means that we have -- 14 that's a little bit exaggerating, but we have a lot of different processes. We have a lot of different systems to cater for this growth and the entrepreneurial growth. So what we did was to set up a process or excellence to enable a standardized way of doing customs within DFDS. Now we have 14 offices. There will be less offices when we standardize. We have appointed one head of the whole customs and the separate organization for that, catering for the 200 people and the DKK 200 million revenue and profitable growth in that. We're going from 100 processes to 2 processes within the customs. And that is the whole thing what the center of excellence is about. That is what we're going to do with all our different core products to standardize, to be able to digitize and to be able to grow profitably. The bundling, I alluded to the bundling before as well. We can see on our top 10 customers that we -- a lot of our 7 core products are used by our biggest customers. There is -- we see some customers they are up to 6 of the product that we have. These customers stand for 28% of our total revenue. It is so important for us to the growing segment of the strategic and large customers, enterprise accounts with customer will [ come into later ]. They utilize those products and that creates stickiness and resilience for us. So -- and the collaboration, I talked about that before as well, but we're strong. The link to the ferry operation together with logistics, that is -- it's not a unique selling point, but it is an extremely strong value proposition. We own the ferries. We have the majority of our own road assets. We have the terminals, as Mathieu talked about, and we have the warehouses. We create high reliability even in adverse conditions. We saw that through COVID. We saw that -- we see that now as well in different areas. End-to-end solutions, super important for our customers. We're able to serve the needs of larger enterprise accounts, identity in supporting our international lines as well in the strongholds we have. Bundling the solutions, Contract Logistics gives an element as well, which we didn't have 5 years ago with really bundling and give more products to and end-to-end services to the customers. So as a good colleague as well, we talked about -- Torben talked about [ ATSF ] and what we're going to do about that. So it's a good colleague. I will give the word to Martin to talk about this.
Martin Gregersen
executiveThanks a lot. And we had also -- despite we had a challenging 2022 due to circumstances beyond our control. We are confident that we are now starting back on the right cost. Of course, the Ukraine war had been hurting the dynamics also in the coaching especially what happened with the grain prices increased a lot, doing the farming industry quite difficult for the picks and the box generally. That was more expensive to raise them, not only in Denmark but also on Germany and Holland, what is some of our core markets. So we saw a decrease of [ farming of the pigs, ] where there's also been hitting us with 20% to 30% downfall in the volumes. Our customer base remains similar 2022 or until 2022. We don't see any fall off with that. And we are quite sure that going forward, we are able to optimize even more. In response to the decline in market volume, we, of course, are decreasing our own -- our own capacities not only for the own assets, we are decreasing with that. We are also trying to optimize on the different BUs. We have where we have been moving and centralizing some of the volumes on existing other business units. Now we -- when we go further, we, of course, have to look into the size we have now inside the DFDS logistics, where we are able to optimize on the scale we have -- so we are now going in and making one logistics instead of cold and dry, we put it together in order to find the synergies. And we are able to see that we are seeing many, many different initiatives on many different locations where we actually are seeing that we are able to take the benefits out of this larger big logistics operations what we have. We are looking into making more flexible solutions with our own assets. As also said before, we are decreasing the own assets, moving more in for this asset-light business model. What is making us more flexible when the markets are declining very fast. We are able to move the capacity around and optimize on all the different business units, sharing capacity, et cetera. We want to grow our packaging business a lot more than what we have today. We see the market is there. We have a very big market share of the meat industry. We have a smaller share in other industries. We want to get that as well. So we are increasing our sales forces, and we are seeing already a big traction against other areas also with the packaging business, what is profitable and very good for us going forward. Furthermore, we have the green transformation, of course. We see that clients they need it. We have it. We have the trucks, at least for certain size until now. The clients, they need it in their portfolio going forward, and we need it as well. And we see that the clients they are willing to take more and more this travel together with us in the green transformation as well.
Niklas Andersson
executiveSo to conclude on the last slide here. We Win23. We've grown significantly. We've grown strong. We now need to look at the green transition what we're going to do as well. We want to deploy our trucks, of course. We see a huge strength commercial strength with the whole green transition. We ask the Germany [indiscernible] about the road tax, electrical trucks has zero road tax. So that is pretty good in Germany. We are deploying them. We have the largest fleet in Europe as we speak. We will continue to do that. We will continue to have the decarb solutions. We will have solar power on our warehouses. We'll do biofuels in the trucks as well. So there's a lot of initiatives there, and we need to be -- still be frontrunners. And from the recent development and acquisitions as well, now we need to unlock the network value. We have grown -- we've grown pretty good with the profitability as well, I would say, but now we feel that we can unlock even more value into the system, reap the benefits of the strong network, get commercial driving to it, get even more enterprise accounts and increase the profits.
Søren Nielsen
executiveSo questions?
Dan Jensen
analystDan Togo, Carnegie. We [indiscernible] that the M&A engine is being, sort of say, coming down to speed and you have grown a lot by M&A. But if you still have an M&A wish list, so to say, more bolt-on, what would that look like in terms of where you want to -- which strengths do you want to or where do you want to be stronger in terms of trade lanes, verticals, capabilities?
Niklas Andersson
executiveNo, I think when we look at bolt-on acquisitions, that is to enhance the strongholds we have today to be even stronger. So that could be a trade lane from, I don't know, Sweden, U.K., maybe where we can see even more volumes coming in or a special geography. So I think the bolt-on acquisitions to enhance the strongholds we have. That is what we see. The expertise. We feel we have that with the 7 core products. We have the center of excellence. So it's more to see if we can fill some gaps in some of the strongholds we have.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. Just a question on your asset intensity. It sounds as if you wanted to become more asset-light compared to previously. Just some thoughts about how will that impact earnings, margins and also the return on invested capital? And also why are you making this decision now and not earlier? Just some thoughts here.
Niklas Andersson
executiveNo. But I think we're 1, 2 years ago, with the supply chain disturbance and actually the lack of supply of drivers and trucks, then it helped us to be -- to have these assets we have today. Now the market has changed a little bit. It's a little bit decline on the market. There's a bigger supply of the truck and on the trailers. So we can actually see that -- at this moment, it would be beneficial for us to decrease the ratio of our own assets and operations who knows how that will look in 1, 2 years. But we want to find a level where we decrease it from the level we have today x amount of percent to have a more balanced situation. So we strongly believe in that and we strongly still believe that we can attract suppliers to work for DFDS as well. And that is not with the scale of DFDS also the green transition. We can help our suppliers with that when it's difficult when you have a smaller operation to go into electrical trucks or something like that. And we definitely think we can help with that. But asset base down figures Torben...
Unknown Analyst
analystNow you have got some experience with your eTrucks. So can you elaborate a little bit on how do you see the cost picture on CapEx and OpEx now compared to a diesel truck? And what would it look like in 5 years from now?
Niklas Andersson
executiveYes. But I think it's not a secret that we had invested in eTrucks. It is a more expensive truck. What we see on the other hand is that we, together with I don't know if it's -- we said before when we launched this, it's a 3-party investment, it is the manufacturer, it's DFDS and it's the customer. And we actually have been able to do that with our customers. We actually see now as well with subsidies and we're a little bit mature into the operation that it is a breakeven on the trucks as well where we can have a sound operating model in different countries. It depends a little bit on electricity cost, diesel, subsidies. So I think we're pretty confident and looking at the future for the 125 trucks, that is a viable business model. And for the future, we definitely expect as well that it will get cheaper. Now it's not a pilot phase, but it's an early stage of the production. So we hope and see the prices will go down.
Søren Nielsen
executiveOkay. I think we're going to take a online question here from, again, from Lars Heindorff from Nordea. We've heard a lot about a general move from full load to part loads from a number of logistic companies lately. Can you share the split between part and full loads? And to what extent this has changed? And what kind of earnings impact, if any, that has for you?
Niklas Andersson
executiveNot necessarily the whole picture. It's a little bit different between cold and dry to start with. So it's a higher intensity in the cold where we -- I don't know, Martin, if you may elaborate on that.
Martin Gregersen
executiveYes, of course, cold is -- it's a big -- I think we are talking about more or less 50-50 comparison on the turnover for part loads and full loads. And of course, when we see when the market are going down with the total volume, we're seeing more and more groups across Europe inside the coaching.
Niklas Andersson
executiveAnd dry is less around 10%, 15% but what we also see is that it's a higher profitability in part loads with the right scale and the right operating model.
Søren Nielsen
executiveOkay. And if there are no further questions here from the floor, then we're going to close the session, and it's actually bang on time, we're going to launch, and we expect to be back here around 1:40 in an hour. Thank you. [Break]
Søren Nielsen
executiveWelcome back to DFDS' Capital Markets Day. We are ready to resume. And through to 3:00, we will have 4 presentations, starting with accelerating organic growth by [ Kasper Danko ] from our strategic sales followed by standardized and digitize, be a great place to work, moving to green and then finishing off with our financial ambitions, and I wrap up. But first, over to you, Kasper.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you. Good afternoon, and welcome back. I think throughout the presentations, we have listened to throughout the morning and the early afternoon. We have a number of times alluded to how the continuous strengthening of our capabilities and our geographies has led to an improved commercial positioning in the market. We see this in different areas and in different perspectives. I think one of the most tangible places where we see this is when we look at the number of, let's call it, qualified commercial dialogues that we've been able to enter throughout the last couple of years and comparing this to how much we were able to do back in, for instance, 2019. And when I refer to qualified commercial dialogues, I very much talk about two dimensions, one being that we are able to enter actual tender processes facilitated by companies, where we see now today with the capabilities we have at hand, we're actually able to be relevant to those companies and therefore, be invited. And on the other hand side, actual proactive sales processes driven by ourself where we, throughout our new acquisitions and the capabilities we've got there in the new geographies are able to make ourselves much more relevant than previously. If we look at some of the numbers, in reality, this means that if we use 2019 as a baseline, we now see that today, we are able -- we've succeeded in tripling the amount of so-called qualified commercial dialogues that we are capable of entering. And that's, of course, very much due to the fact that we now bring those new capabilities across combined with a different approach, which I will come back to later, but also, of course, looking at the additional geographies, but it's not only about the actual amount because one thing is to get in through the door and get access to having conversations with companies. The next thing is, of course, to what extent are we capable of expanding the scope of commercial dialogues. If we look at the numbers, those where data are valuable and valid, we see that today, we're capable of actually entering dialogues and offering supply chain solutions on a scope, which is 35% larger than when we compare to 2019. So if we look at these 2 dimensions, these are very much the product and the result of some of the capabilities that we have enhanced over throughout the years and the strengthened geographies. And fortunately, you could say or maybe naturally, this has also led to the fact that Torben and Niklas has alluded to a few times that we have extended, I think, substantially the amount of large customers that we're working with in DFDS. We articulate these as enterprise accounts in DFDS, as mentioned before, this means an annual revenue of minimum EUR 10 million and we have extended the amount of enterprise accounts in DFDS from EUR 7 million when we counted in 2019 to EUR 23 million in 2023. So this is, of course, an important journey for DFDS. And when we look at this, there are a number of learnings we picked up on the road. One of them is that where we traditionally have been very, very strong within certain selected industries. When we look at the '23 enterprise accounts we have today in DFDS, this actually goes much across industries, much beyond some of the industries where we traditionally have been very strong. And that tells us something about that the way we operate the way we approach the market and the capabilities we bring across has a relevance which goes way beyond only the selected industries. And this has also meant that we have not only built new capabilities to bring to the market, but we also adjusted, you could say, the way of working or the way of selling actually that we bring to the market today. Maybe some of you will remember back in 2018, 2019, that we launched the strategy in which we had a very explicit ambition of being more present and more relevant in selected industries. And at that point of time, we articulated selected industries as the automotive industry, the forest and metal industry and the coal chain industry. I think to be fair, we picked up a lot of good learnings from that journey. It served us well to do so at that point of time. But as I also alluded to before, the transition that has been between 2019 and 2023 has also taught us some things around going beyond only selected industries. The capabilities we have, the offerings we bring to the market has a relevance beyond. And we've also learned that there is a macro tendency -- I guess this is not breaking news, but there is a macro tendency right now in Europe, saying that many, many of the large companies, the ones with whom we want to interact are having a strategy change from a multiple supplier strategy on one hand side, to a fewer larger strategic partner strategy. And this is, of course, important because in order to be relevant also for this revised strategy moving forward, we need to have a broad offering, and we need to have a professional approach to -- with which we go to the market. Therefore, we have adjusted the way we work. We have ensured that we have a structure and an operating model in DFDS, where we are both organizationally, but also competence-wise, ready to meet those demands that we are being confronted with frequently in the market. And when -- specifically, what I mean about that is, for instance, we now today need to be able commercially to go out and facilitate I think complex discussions around sustainability, digitization, ESG agenda, et cetera, which comes not only on top of, but next to more traditional conversations around transportation from A to B. What we wanted to do today was to share you a few examples because we want, by the power of examples to demonstrate how we have worked throughout the last couple of years in ensuring that we utilize the new capabilities we have at hands. And at the same time, we utilize the adjusted way of working to together with our customers, develop strong partnerships because that's also the model we will be using moving forward and ensuring the acceleration of organic growth. We bring across a couple of examples. The first one I would like to share is Monster Energy, I think, most likely a brand, which is very familiar to most of you, one of the largest producers of soft sports and energy drinks in the world. When we look at the baseline we talked about before 2019, the amount of business we had at that point of time with Monster Energy was fairly limited, to be fair. It was not insignificant, but it was fairly limited. It was very much limited to a couple of full load lanes we're doing primarily in and out of continent, but not something very organized, not something very structured. And to be fair, not very strategic at that point in time. Relatively early after 2019, we acquired a company called Huisman in the continent based -- in the continent. And some of the capabilities we gained from that acquisition was, amongst others, very strong part load capabilities. And those part load capabilities we implemented into the DFDS family and utilized in us in the existing collaboration with Monster Energy to grow the business based on that. So expanding from full loads now, full loads and part loads. We also took the revised operating model we're working that I alluded to before, and used that to, in a more structured way, start dialogues with Monster Energy around how can we continuously develop business together in areas that we're not doing today. Based on that, we created some projects around expanding with warehouse operations, still primarily within the continent. This little piece of journey, a couple of years in reality meant that we could take the total scope of business we're doing with Monster Energy from a, let's call it, facto 1 to a facto 4. Then on the back of that, we did an acquisition of a company called ICT Logistics. With ICT Logistics, we got new capabilities and new geographies at hand. We took those capabilities. We added it to the existing collaboration with Monster. And throughout that, we are capable of scaling our business activities with new warehouse operations, specifically Nordics and specifically in Denmark and utilizing that to further grow the business. And I should have mentioned maybe that in the first initial years of collaboration with Monster, we're very focused on or -- maybe I should in all fairness say, we were allowed to work together with Monster Energy on their raw materials. But with this recent capabilities gained, we now could actually expand the area of business to also include their finished goods. Within the last year, 1.5 year, we accelerated the way of working, ensuring that when structured, methodology way could have dialogues together with Monster Energy around ensuring that they are presented, introduced and motivated to get into the additional offerings we have at hand and DFDS so that we ensure that we actually have a broad range of offerings got across to Monster Energy. You can see at the slide here that some of the products and some of the offerings that we today are working together with Monster Energy around is, for instance, control tower, it's customs. It's also, as I mentioned before, warehousing, but also latest, we have added green products, green solutions to the scale of products and range we're doing together with Monster Energy. So today, you could say, if you look at the numbers going back to what I talked about before, factor I, factor 4. Today, we have a plus factor 20 in size and scope of the collaboration with Monster Energy throughout a period of time of 4, 4.5 years. And today, Monster Energy is on the list of customers you saw from Niklas earlier. It's a top 5 customer within our Logistics division. I wanted to share another example with you, which I think is fairly similar in its shape and form, well known to many, I think, Danish Crown, one of, of course, the largest producer of pork and exporters. In 2019, the baseline we agreed upon. The amount of business we're doing together with Danish Crown was again not insignificant, but still somewhat scattered and limited. We will do -- from DFDS perspective, we're doing at that point of time. We're doing some individualized ferry routes collaboration with Danish Crown, not in an overall organized, structured strategic way, but still at that point of time, important business to Danish -- to the DFDS. Then as you are very well aware of, we did the acquisition of HSF and N&K. And as part of that, we all of a sudden got entrance to a very, very large proportion of logistics offerings. So we could take these logistics offerings, which took our commercial relationship with Danish Crown to the next level. We could take that. We could bundle it together with the ferry routes we are doing already at that point of time, and we could start implementing the way of working in a more structured, hopefully, in a more professional way. Utilizing that, we managed in the middle of this period of time to add additional of our existing ferry routes to the collaboration with Danish Crown. Only late last year, early this year, maybe some read about it in the press, we managed to seal a long-term contract together with Danish Crown, a 5-year contract, which also includes a substantial amount of neutral green transition commitment. And if you look at the journey from 2019 to 2023, it's actually a journey that represents, again, a growth from Factor 1, in this case, to Factor 15. So the examples are here to underline and hopefully illustrate how we -- with a mutual usage of both new capabilities at hand, new geographies and an adjusted operating model can develop long-term strong partnerships with large customers. These were 2 examples of some of our industrial customers we're working with. But as you know, in DFDS on behalf of both ferry and logistics, we serve other segments of customers as well. We also serve a large number of large unit-load operators. And just to complete the picture, we wanted to bring along also an example of this. SAP intermodal, a Turkish-based provider of transportation and warehouse with a very, very strong focus on intermodal also part of the DFDS collaboration. Again, using the same methodology, if we look at where we were in 2019, it was a reasonable amount of business to be fair at that point in time because it came on the exact back of our acquisition of U.N. Ro-Ro. And with the acquisition of U.N. Ro-Ro, we got access to a reasonable amount of the business together with SAP. But the story we wanted to get across today was that by utilizing that foundation of existing business with our operating model, we're actually able also here together with SAP intermodal throughout the years to develop further expansion of that collaboration. We expanded some of our port offerings, amongst others by being present in Sète France. And then in the middle of this 4, 4.5-year period of time, we acquired, as some of you will recall, we acquired primeRail and thereby, got access to new rail intermodal capabilities that we could add into the existing collaboration and thereby grow further. Latest, we have now started developing by the usage of these capabilities and by the usage of the way that we structurally methodically work together with SAP. We've now started to introduce at least on a trial basis, how we can connect the Turkish customers to U.K. using our full range network. So these three customer cases were intended to show you an illustrate how we have worked structurally with the acquisitions and the capabilities that we've got on the back of that. If we should try to -- or if I should try to recap the message in that, I would say we have succeeded in creating positive development within the customers of DFDS, especially the largest customers in the DFDS by increasing our relevance and our presence in the various industries. We have demonstrated to the largest customers that we are a relevant strategic partner. And this is important not only as a show off because in reality, with back to the point I tried to raise before around the change of strategy in large customers in Europe. What happens in reality is also that some kind of imaginary threshold is being implemented. So when the likes of Coca-Cola goes to the market with a pan-European tender, they have a very, very explicit strategy saying nobody who is capable of taking a minimum of 5% of total scope can enter this tender. So this is a massive difference for DFDS because today, we're capable of raising our hand and saying, we are a relevant strategic partner for you or at least a relevant potential strategic partner to you and wording an articulation that we were incapable of doing 3, 5 years ago. With that foundation in place, the capabilities, the geographies and the way of working, we will take that foundation and we will focus on the future priorities together with the customers. And the future priorities together with the customers to ensure the organic growth is to ensure that all our relevant offerings, products, which we have at hand right now are being presented in a structured way to the customers to ensure that these customers buy as many products as possible and as relevant from us and that we can take the knowledge and the capabilities of the competence we have at hand in terms of sustainability, digitization, et cetera, and bring that across in the conversations moving forward to the customers because for us, it is a prerequisite being a relevant partner in 2023 onwards. It is a prerequisite that we are capable of bringing these agenda points to the table and also including that in more traditional transportation offering. On that happy note, I'm very open to any questions.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik, SEB. As you expand your capabilities I guess you're also a larger competitor to some of your freight forwarding customers. So does that pose any risk or threat that as you become bigger the share of wallet at your biggest customers, the freight forwarders will be jeopardized?
Unknown Executive
executiveTo be fair, I think that, that risk element that you allude to is there already. And if I look at my baseline comparison 2019, 2020, I don't think the actual increase of capabilities add that substantially to the level of risk. I think it was present in 2019. I think we found a way because, of course, your question is spot on and relevant. But I think we found a way to maneuver in that atmosphere where there is a mutual respect about how we operate and also a conversation around when we cross borders.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible] Monster Energy, which routes, [ C-route ] I think of here to their support? And how big -- how much of sort of say, the total -- how much of -- how big of a supplier are you of transport to Monster Energy, thinking of how much can you grow the share of wallet with Monster Energy from where you are today?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Good. So the first question, the primary ferry route that we serve Monster is Continent U.K., Continent Ireland. On the question about share of wallet, it's very interesting because although Monster Energy is a top 5 logistics customer today and as such a very significant one, there is still room for developing business further. We have today less than 1/7 of the total spend of Monster's transportation spend. So there is a sixth [ statement ] to develop if we have the capabilities.
Ruairi Cullinane
analystRuairi Cullinane, RBC. Could you talk a bit about how margins differ with the enterprise accounts that you focused on?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. So I think there is -- at least if I start talking from the DFDS perspective, I think there is potentially a legacy dialogue around how margins will per default be lowered as you enter large and larger collaborations. We don't have data to necessarily support that. Some of our largest enterprise accounts amongst those when I look at both logistics and ferry activities, who provide not necessarily the biggest margins, but what we consider to be very fair margins and also above what we expect as a minimum to enter commercial agreements. And I think some of the explanation here is that, yes, volumes drive traditionally drive lower margins. But there's also something about when you start building complex solutions with bundling and substantial amount of products, you also get a different resilience in your supply chain system, and you also get a different level of stickiness. And the stickiness, I think, is also related to reliability that you get because you get a strategic partner. And with reliability, there is also room to maintain reasonable margins.
Søren Nielsen
executiveOkay. Any further questions here from the floor? If not, then thank you very much, Kasper. And we are going to move on with standardized and digitize. And we have Rune Keldsen, our Chief Technology Officer, to take us through that.
Rune Keldsen
executiveThank you, Soren. And I have the privilege of presenting 2 of the pillars of our strategy towards 2030, the standardized to simplify and digitize to transform. These 2 areas -- Yes, there we go. These 2 areas are very deeply interlinked. We need standardization to accelerate our digitalization and we need digitalization to automate the processes we have standardized. As you have seen from some of my colleagues' presentations before, we have grown significantly over the last years. We have grown in both sides, but we have also grown in complexity. And for us to realize the benefits of our scale to ensure that we can take data-driven decisions across our network and also to be really able to accelerate automation we'll be pushing hard on standardization across commercial, operational and back-office processes. If I talk about the digitalization priority, we have 2 focus areas within this. And that is enabled by our technology platform. The first part of the focus here is on using digitalization to create even stronger relationship with our customers, ensuring that we are very easy to interact with and that we provide value at every touch point our customers have with us. The other part of the strategy is focused on how we use digitalization to optimize our operations so that we can work safer, more efficiently and also can accelerate our green transition. If I move into the -- how we will create more value for our customers through digitization, this is very much focused on providing best-in-class self-service to our customers so that it's easy for them to do their bookings and follow up in their bookings, whether that is from one of our booking platforms or through direct system integrations between the customer system and ours. The second part of this is related to providing our customers with full transparency over the transport and providing them with proactive communication and advice along the way. The third focus area here is related to creating solutions to our customers that help them optimize their operations and also accelerate their move to green. Some of the examples I've taken in here. One of them is our CO2 dashboards where we can have a dialogue with our customers and provide them transparency over their CO2 emissions and identify opportunities to improve. The second example here is related to the great solutions that Niklas and Martin presented earlier, where we can use technology to create -- to make these solutions even better, whether that is our innovative packaging solution control towers or our customs offerings. If we look at how we operate, this one is related to ensuring that all our operational colleagues have data and tools to make them be able to work smarter and more efficiently. And then it's also about ensuring that all the TDS and repetitive tasks that we have that they can be fully automated so that we can spend even more of our energy on providing value to our customers. The examples I've taken in here, the first one is very much related to what Mathieu talked about with the operational efficiency where we can use digitalization to optimize our terminals, from automating the gate process, so we have a faster inflow and outflow of our terminals to providing an app to our drivers and the terminals where they can see exactly where to pick up and where to place the different trailers on the vessels. By doing that, they can work more efficiently and with fewer mistakes. If we can load our ships faster, we can depart the terminal quicker, we have more time on the water. And if we have more time on the water, we can sail slower and thereby reducing both bunker or diesel and CO2 emissions. The second example I have here is related to our logistics business, where the planning activity of optimizing how we use our trucks is a complicated activity. It requires a lot of different parameters, and it's a great example of where we can use data and AI to help provide these plans quicker and ensure that we have full utilization over our trucks and equipments. The example you see here in the middle is from one of our Danish offices where we are testing out this, creating these plans through AI. The third area of this one is about using data to predict future demand so we can optimize the use of our resources and our assets. And that can be all the way from using data to optimize how we sail our vessels, how we configure our vessels or to the second example I have here, where we use data to predict no shows on our terminals, again, allowing us to overbook in our planning, similar to what you know probably from the airline industry and by planning with over bookings, even though we have no shows to the terminals, we can ensure that we sail with full ships. The digitalization is enabled by us investing in our technical foundation. And within our industry, it's key for the digitalization to be able to connect the physical world with the digital world. So if we know what happens in the real world, it allows us to automate the processes behind that. The example I've put in here is that our systems today, they react to more than 100 million events on a daily basis and that can be a gate opened, it can be a ship departed or a truck arrived at a cross stock. The second reason why we invest in the technical foundation is for our ability to adopt new technologies. If we are not fast enough in adopting AI, autonomy and other different technologies, then we will lag behind. And we will especially lag behind compared with some of the digital entrants we have seen into our industry in the last years. So to sum up, we will standardize to simplify so we can accelerate our digital transformation and thereby creating a stronger relationship with our customers and providing more value. And secondly, we will ensure that our operations can work more efficiently, safer, and we can accelerate the green transition. Now to questions.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. Do you have a way to measure the financial impact from these digitization efforts? You mentioned you can save bunker by sailings slower, but do you have KPIs or some sort of where you can follow up on?
Rune Keldsen
executiveYes, we do -- we have both KPIs that can directly show the financial impact. So when we roll out a new system to one of our terminals, we can measure what is the bunker consumption of the trucks driving around on the terminal. And there, we had an example from this year where we rolled out our yard management system in Pendik, where we could see a 9% decrease in the use of diesel, but we actually also sold off a couple of our trucks simply because we could work more efficiently. Then we also have some leading KPIs where we can see, okay, how are we moving in terms of digital bookings for our customers, where we can see in Ferry, we are past 90% of our customers booking digitally. In logistics, we're moving very close to 80%. And that's also kind of leading indicators that we're making a difference for digitalization.
Unknown Analyst
analystA bit of the same. What is your IT or budget per annum, so to say, how much can you spend without [indiscernible] coming -- breathing down your neck, so to say? And how do you feed into the return requirement of, let's say, 10%? I guess you have to approach talking with the business case -- and yes, how to document that?
Rune Keldsen
executiveI think as Torben said, we have maintained and even increased our investment in digitalization even through a difficult period. We have done that because we believe that is needed for us to stay relevant in the market. When we do initiatives, it's not me coming to talk, normally come together with Mathieu and Niklas and say, we have a case for what we can do within this area. We present the case, and then we look at is the return high enough. But there is no doubt that there is a huge opportunity to increase efficiency and thereby reducing our cost bases in a lot of different areas of our operations. And that's also why both Martin, Niklas and Mathieu showed this operational efficiency very closely linked to digitalization.
Unknown Analyst
analystMaybe one follow-up. How many of these initiatives have you running right now?
Rune Keldsen
executiveI prefer not to have a focus on how many initiatives because it's -- for me, it's more a matter of what the impact we can do. We have around 400 and 450 people working, some of them working on projects like rolling out our new [ DCV65 ]. And then we have some team working on terminal efficiency, et cetera. On a quarterly basis, we have around 70 to 80 objectives, which means that we set us what is that we want to achieve increase NPS, increase how many customers booked digitally increase the conversion rate, et cetera. And we have around 70 to 80 of these objectives that we define every quarter. And then after each quarter, we review them, what was the result and then we prioritize that for the next quarter. So -- but we have more projects if you kind of take it out into initiatives, but in terms of objectives, it's around 70 to 80 per order.
Søren Nielsen
executiveAny further questions here right. Thank you very much, Rune. And we're going to move on with people and they be a great place to work, strategy, and that will be presented by -- Anne-Christine Ahrenkiel, our Chief People Officer.
Anne-Christine Ahrenkiel
executiveThank you, Soren. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm here to present the fifth part of our strategic pillar, which is all about people. And the reason for having a full pillar dedicated to that is that we fundamentally believe in DFDS that it's amongst our 14,500 people that we truly hold the key to unlock the full potential of our business. I think some of the examples that have been demonstrated here earlier fully shows that if it's not with the right mindset and the right skills and the right collaboration efforts of our people, we are not able to realize what we have done, and we will certainly not be able to realize either what we're going to achieve in the future. We call this strategic ambition being a great place to work. And the simple reason for that is that we believe that offering a great workplace is a competitive advantage. It is already, and it will be even more so in the years to come. As you know, we mainly operate in Europe. It's a place where the supplier of talents is not getting bigger. It's -- on the contrary, getting smaller due to the demographics that they are impacting us. And we believe that we really need to be at our [ tours ] in order to attract the right caliber of talent who, by the way, also get more and more picky and set higher standards for what kind of workplace that they want to join. So the way that we define a great place to work, it has 3 elements. One is that it has to be a safe place to work. Around 2/3 of the people working with us are in operative positions or operative work that is in locations entailing a certain degree of a potential risk with how you work. And that is not DFDS specific. It's simply due to the nature of our business that it happens that work injuries are happening. So we want to reduce that to an absolute minimum, of course. Then we want to be a diverse and inclusive workplace. We want to be reflective of the societies that we operate in when we look at our employee population, but we also fundamentally believe that there is a strong correlation between the sense of belonging you feel in the place that you work and how you thrive and how you perform. Last, but not least, we want our leaders to be engaging leaders. We believe that great leadership has everything to do with setting a good direction, but also driving engagement and driving performing amongst the people. That creates a high degree of well-being with the individual, but it certainly also strengthens and improves the performance of the company overall. And we have plans in place behind these 3 initiatives. There are incentives going across our executive management team. There are definitely incentives also further down in the system that support all this. And in the interest of time, I can only dive into one of the examples of what we are doing here. It's a hot topic in many companies. It's about gender diversity. We have an ambition across DFDS to have a 30% share of females in our working population. And that is a relatively high number, not only for DFDS, but for the industry as a whole. The nature of work being done in our business has traditionally appealed more to males than to females, and that's just the way it is. We do believe, however, that if we look into specific segments, there are ways to move this gender balance somewhat. Two examples here within the office-based segment, we mean that we can develop more female managers than what we have at the moment. And when we look at the sea side and looking at the -- [indiscernible] engine population, even if that is a very challenged area as well when it comes to gender balance, we also believe we can do better there. In fact, as you can see from the numbers, we have already improved and have even more ambitious targets. The way we've gone about it is a little bit different depending on which of them we're talking about, in. Within the office settings, it's very much about ownership with leaders, and then it's all about having the right infrastructure of policies and processes and systems in place in order to support leaders to take the right decisions in recruitment situations and in promotion situations and so forth. For the [ degen ] engine, we have the privilege that we have a relatively large fleet in Turkey. In Turkey, there is also an access to a larger talent pool of [ degen ] engine staff than in Europe, not only on the female side, but also on the mail side. But we see that as a good source of where we can actually attract more talents that then also will come in favor of the female side of the gender. So very briefly, we want to be a preferred employer because we really believe that it is in within our employees that we can unlock a great potential. And challenge of today, they have high expectations to where they want to work. And these are just as a short repeat, the 3 areas that we are focusing on -- and that is basically what I had to share with you. Any questions.
Unknown Analyst
analystCould you remind us how unionization varies across your businesses and what role you see trade unions contributing to this pillar?
Anne-Christine Ahrenkiel
executiveSo we have -- we intact a lot with unions and of course, different ones depending on what kind of employee group we are talking about. I see the union is actually gaining more influence. And I actually see it in many ways also as a positive thing if you engage positively with them. There is an ESG agenda going on and the S is growing there as well as the E. And that means that when you look at things like, for instance, the mobility package that came out last year and so forth, I think it's not only the unions, but it's in society in general, that expectations to what kind of workplace you are increasing. And I think rather than having a fighting approach to that, I think it needs to be a collaborative approach, which, by the way, very much for [ simple ] also the, let's say, the Danish labor market model that we are used to.
Søren Nielsen
executiveDo we have any further questions for any Anne-Christine? Thank you very much. We're going to move on with the green agenda moving to green. And we have Sophie-Kim Chapman, Head of our decarbonization unit, and we have Jesper Aagesen, Head of our Sustainable Fleet Projects to take us through that.
Sophie-Kim Chapman
executiveSo it's our pleasure to be here talking to you about how we move to green. It's a short presentation, but a long journey, we think. Soren briefly introduced our targets, and we would like to talk about the targets but also about the pathways that are in place to reach these targets. So just to recap, for 2030, we have a 45% CO2 intensity reduction target from Ferries. And on the land side of our business for road transport, warehousing, and terminals activity, we have a much higher target of a 75% intensity reduction. The reason for this is that we feel that the technologies available to achieve reductions on the land side of our business are much more mature than those available currently on the Ferry side of our business. But we are constantly analyzing possible pathways. We are constantly trying to improve upon our targets. And we are modeling detailed scenarios for how we get to our net 0 target in 2050 on an ongoing basis. I think Jesper will now talk you through the vessels.
Jesper Aagesen
executiveYes. And as of Kim said, we have a target of a reduction of 45% in 2030. And the plan for our vessel side, we have worked with for some years. And the way we measure our emissions is that we have what we call our CO2 intensity, and that is expressed by grant CO2 emission per transport work our ships are doing. And our starting point is 17.5. That figure, we need to reduce by 45% in order to bring us down to 9.6 or below that. Currently, we are around 12.2. That's where we believe we will end by 2023. That's about 30% out of the 45%. So we still have 15% to do in the next 6 years. And we have 2 initiatives. We are working with it for our existing ships. One of the initiatives is what we call every minute counts, and that is about looking into can we optimize our schedules for our existing ships, can we reduce the speed of the vessels and thereby also reduce our emissions. And that is quite interesting because there is a relationship between a ship speed and the power and thereby also the emissions in the order of 3 or in some cases, even more. So that means if we can reduce our speed by 5%, then our reductions in CO2 will be around 15% and so on. So that's some work we have started to look into on more or less all our routes, and we will have some benefits on that. Another aspect we are looking into is the technical upgrades of the ship. Can we apply a more efficient paint in the underwater halt? That's something we have worked with for a couple of years, and that will continue in the coming years. We are looking into the ships whole shape. Can we do something there to optimize the ships? Can we maybe change the propellers of the ships? And also shore power is also an important measure to reduce our CO2 footprint. Today, we have shore power installed on 4 ships and a number of ships are prepared, and we are using it in 3 ports, but we expect that much more ships and ports will follow in the coming years up to 2030. Then we also have a tonnage plan, which will bring me to the next slide because that is some of the new projects we are looking into as a part of this decarbonization journey up to 2030. And the 6 green ferries, as Torben mentioned in his presentation, and there we have some different possibilities, and I'll start with the one called channel electrification because the best way we can use the energy we have available is to use the energy directly. And that we have a possibility to do on our routes between U.K. and France because they are short enough in order to be possible to electrify the routes. So that's something we are looking a lot into, and we expect to have 2 electrical ferries in place by 2030, and we have started the discussions and preparations on how the vessels should look like already and discussions with the ports on each side, of course. But the majority of our routes, they are fairly long. And therefore, we do not have the opportunity to electrify those because the batteries will take away too much space, and we will be way too heavy. So there we need to do something different. And therefore, we look into green fuels. And right now, both methanol and ammonia the fuels being very much on our radar. There could also come other fuels in the future, of course. But ammonia looks quite interesting. So here, we are looking into maybe building some Ro-Ro cargo ships, which could also be in place by the end of this decade. And we are also looking into both conversion of existing ships as well as ro-pax ships on -- running on methanol. When we talk about methanol and ammonia, it is, of course, dual-fuel ships, so because they were still -- the engines will still need some amount of diesel in order to do the combustion. All these new exciting stuff means also that we have to work in another way. It's another way to design the ships. It's another way to build the ships. The rules are not completely in place for all these new technologies, all the new fuels and some of the new rules will be based on what we call risk-based design. So we cannot just look up into the rule book and see how the ships need to be built. So that means we need to stay very close to the ship designers and the shipyards in all this process. And that's very exciting, but it's a new way to work for everybody. We also need to collaborate with the ports in order to find out how can we bunker these ships, how shall the procedures be, how can we handle it in a safe way? That's also some work we also have started to look into together with some of the ports already. Finally, we have also started to stay very close to the suppliers of the technical solutions, the engines and the fuels in order to understand exactly when will the new technologies be available? And when will the new fuels be available? Because all that is, of course, a prerequisite in order for us to go out and order new ships. And over to you.
Sophie-Kim Chapman
executiveThank you. So moving away from the vessels to road, a number of presenters today have talked about the focus on efficiencies within the Logistics business, ongoing operational efficiency is not mentioned in this road map, but it is a big focus within the business and also supported by our digitization efforts. Aside from that then, this is more of an energy transition road map. And as we are more decentralized in logistics, and we have fewer or more assets depending on the strategy at a given point in time. We are approaching the road transport roadmap looking at it from a percentage of engine and fuel types in the mix at any given point in time. So a similar metric, it's grams of CO2e, so all greenhouse gases, not just CO2 per tonne kilometer that we measure this on -- in 2022, that baseline was 76.1%, where we were running pretty much completely diesel with just a few of our trucks running on HVO. Between now and 2030 and already started as a kind of 3-part program switching some of our diesel trucks to HVO. That achieves depending on the source of the HVO, maybe a 60%, maybe a 90% CO2 reduction. Switching also a big chunk of our trucking portfolio to battery electric. And also we have believed before 2030, ideally, around 2025, '26, we will start also trialing fuel cell electrical trucks in our portfolio. In order to reach our -- well, this would get us at 76%, but the 75% intensity goal by 2030, we would need a mix roughly equivalent to only 10% of the trucks running on diesel. And that could be achieved, for example, with 60% on HVO. So keeping the existing assets and not contributing to more CO2 by ditching those assets early. Introducing 1/4 of our portfolio as electrical trucks and maybe 5% as hydrogen. But those proportions can change depending on how we see the subsidy picture and the technology picture. And we would like, if we can, to increase the proportions of the zero emission technologies versus the HVO. The e-trucks have already been mentioned. I just wanted to add some things. We expect to have about 87 of the first 125 that were ordered in operation by the end of this year. There are trucks arriving from it -- to the Volvo dealerships on an almost ongoing basis. So it's hard to give you an accurate picture of the numbers currently. But the interesting thing is that as we have started deploying them during this year, we have had more and more customers showing an interest in coming onboard, with Scandinavian customers leading the way, often being more mature in their own sustainability journey. But now we also see customers like Monster, for example, in other regions starting to get interested and want to drive with the e-trucks. They are nearly completely zero emission, our e-trucks is the only case, where that isn't the case is when we cannot control where they are charging, which is the case in some of the flows, otherwise, when they are charging based on our infrastructure, they are charging with renewable energy. And also on the land side then, when it comes to terminals and warehousing, I mean, terminals is where everything converges. This is an example of our terminal in Ghent. Ghent is probably the terminal that is furthest ahead in its electrification journey. And electricity is the key thing here, and that starts with actually ensuring that we are producing energy so we can ensure that we are contributing to the available energy pool. Here, we are actually looking at that wind energy, but on warehouses in general, I think Niklas already mentioned, we have a large program of installing solar panels on warehouses so that we are generating at least part of the energy we need to operate. But in Ghent, we expect to have the trucks. We also have a logistics business here, which shares the same premises. We will have electrified terminal equipment, so reach stackers, tug masters, shore power needed for some of Jesper's part of the plan and charging for our own equipment but potentially also for other visitors to the terminal. So what we are finding in this journey is that although emissions are our key focus and decarbonization is our key focus, it cannot happen without a focus on energy management and understanding how do we use the available energy at the different times of the day with all of these vehicles and operations converging in one place. I think I'm...
Jesper Aagesen
executiveYes. Rules and regulations, a lot of things are happening there, and a lot of things are coming our way, and we need to understand the impact on how to comply with all these rules and regulations. If you start from the left-hand side, we have 2 things called EDI and EEXI, and it can very soon become very technical and very complex. So I'll not go into too many details with that. But it is basically what we call an Energy Efficiency Index. It's a measure about the ship's CO2 emissions, again, divided by the transport work. And this is a kind of a theoretical figure, and it's something you need to calculate once for each vessel. And we are, of course, in compliance with those 2. Then we have CII, which is maybe a little bit more interesting. That is called Carbon Intensity Indicator, and that is the actual fuel consumption of the ship, you need to calculate that figure every year. Actual fuel consumption of the ship divided by the theoretical maximum capacity. So here, we are mixing something actual/operational with a theoretical figure. That also makes things a little bit complicated, and that's maybe one of the downsides with the CII. But that's what we have to live with. The figure which is coming out of the CII result in a rating. It's like when you buy a car or a piece of electronics. There are 5 ratings from A to E. And if you are in rating A, B or C, then you are fine, and you are in compliance. If you are in rating D or E, then you need to make improvements. And improvements can be increasing energy efficiency of the vessel, increase the transport work or switch to another fuel or another technology. Today, all our vessels are in either A, B or C, but since the CII regulations will become stricter as we go along in the coming years, we will also, at some point, end up with vessels with ratings lower than C. So that's also why we need either to do something with these vessels or they will be a part of this replacement program. Then we have ETS, Emission Trading System. That's basically a CO2 tax, which we will have to pay. That will be phased in over a few years, starting next year by -- and then by 40%, and then we will go up to 30% and will be fully phased in from 2026. Then we have something called your Fuel EU Maritime, and that is the requirement on how much we shall reduce the carbon content of our fuel mix. There will be a requirement of a 2% reduction from 2025 and 6% from 2030. And it does not help you if you just reduce your carbon footprint by 2%. It helps nothing in this context. It is the carbon content of the fuel mix you use at that point in time, which needs to be reduced. And again, it's something you may solve by biofuels or shore power or some of all these green fuels. And that's something which will increase. These requirements will increase also as we go along, also beyond 2030. Finally, we have the ETS II, which will be about our logistics and the trucks. It's not something we need to report. That will be a tax which will come on the fuel pump directly. That will come in from also -- from a few years from now.
Sophie-Kim Chapman
executiveAnd I guess we wanted to focus on regulation because it goes to this question of cost parity between black and green, because the question that I think on most people's lips is, how do people us and other companies pay for the green transition. We know that -- well, some people, I think, asked before, what was the level of demand from customers for this? And we know, in general, the customers don't feel that they should pay for the entire transition, but they also understand that we are transporting on their behalf. Our Scope 1 is their Scope 3. So we need to help them decarbonize their supply chains. So the reality is we have customers that are ranging from people who are collaborating very strategically with us. I think they've come up in some of Kaspers' and Niklas' presentations on trying to build entire green corridors, on the left of this slide. We also have customers who really don't know what's about to hit them. They haven't really looked into ETS, they haven't looked into Fuel EU Maritime, they're not really aware even of the CO2 taxation coming up, where, for those customers, they can -- they will basically pay the taxation as it stands. And in the middle is maybe the interesting part because we cannot split a vessel into a chunk for the -- an ammonia chunk for the people who want to be green and a diesel chunk for the people who don't mind. We need to manage the transition. So in the middle, we -- as I think Torben has referred to, we have launched some green products where customers can then via a mass balance system either buy a direct CO2 reduction on lanes that we are running for them, or a ferry that we are running for them, or they can find indirect reduction. So they say, I would like to buy a CO2 reduction. We put e-trucks on a given lane or biofuel in a vessel, and we can sell them the resulting reduction even though it may not be the vessel or the truck exactly in which their goods were transported but they're not the only source of funding. Obviously, as I said, we don't expect customers to pay for everything. We are ramping up our focus on how we source the funding that should be available for the green transition from government sources. So first off, is the EU Innovation Fund, which, if successful, will give us up to 60% of the difference of the cost between black and green and that we are targeting at the moment, specifically for the ammonia vessels that Jesper talked about and also probably next year then for the channel electrification projects. In the middle, we have the EU Hydrogen Bank, which is purely on the fuel side. So all of these hydrogen-based fuels, we can or a fuel provider can apply for subsidies from the hydrogen bank with us as an offtaker. There, we're kind of watching this. We probably won't go for the February 2024 auction, but there will be another one, a bigger one in the spring, which is where we could also apply for support to close the price gap between ammonia or methanol. And then finally, we're also targeting where it makes sense, national funding, especially on the infrastructure side because it's not just the vessels and the trucks that we need to pay for. It's also refueling infrastructure, bunkering infrastructure. There's a lot of other costs associated with this. We've already used quite some national funding and subsidies when it comes to rolling out the e-trucks, where we've been able to get it. And we are increasing our focus on both applying for this funding, but also talking to policymakers to make sure that this funding stays available or becomes available more in the future. So to sum up then, we have absolutely clear pathways to either meet or exceed our 2030 targets, but we don't stop there. We are always trying to see how far we can push it. We want to transition as far and as fast as possible. We are prepared for coming regulation. Our preference is that we sensibly and carefully but invest to be green in preference to paying to be black. And we see this collaboration with customers, partners, but also governments and funding bodies are central to enabling our transition. Questions?
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. So how many of your vessels do you either need to retrofit or replace to meet this 2030 target of yours?
Jesper Aagesen
executiveIf we look on the slides, a few slides back, then with the initiatives we have now with the every minute counts, with the technical upgrades of existing ships and then the 6 green ferries, then we will be actually below our target of 9.67%, then we will go down to 9% or something like that. And then we will also be in compliance with Fuel EU Maritime and so on. So then we will be good.
Ulrik Bak
analystIn terms of CII [Technical Difficulty].
Jesper Aagesen
executiveEEXI and EEDI, they are all compliant. CII, we will have a few ships by the end of this decade, which will be in Class D or E and there, we need to do something, either reduce the speed further, switch to biofuel or something else. And also -- it's also fair to say some of those vessels will also be among our oldest vessel in the fleet, which will then be part of the fleet renewal program, which will be replaced by some of the newer ships.
Ulrik Bak
analyst[Technical Difficulty]
Unknown Executive
executiveI think these 6 green ferries, they will replace 7 to 8 of our existing ones. And then in the beginning of the 2030s further will come. And this plan, we only have the 2 electrical ferries for the channel, but they will come more in the beginning of the 2030s.
Dan Jensen
analystDan Togo, Carnegie. These new vessels here, who will build them and do you use green steel? And if you do, or not, how much would that impact the calculation if that was the case?
Jesper Aagesen
executiveOn the question on who we build them, that's a very good question. And we actually plan to send out the specification, so want to a fairly broad range of shipyards globally. It is quite complex projects we are talking about here. So it could turn out that the price gaps between the various shipping countries would maybe be different compared to what we have seen before. There could be some shipyards in some countries saying, thank you, but no thank you to do this complex stuff as being the first mover. So we're actually quite curious to see which shipyards, which countries will actually be interesting, and entering into this journey. Green steel also something we, of course, will look into and challenge the shipyards. We have already done some estimates on the CO2 emissions on building a ship and a rough estimate is that CO2 emissions from building the ship, including steel, engines, pumps and everything, that's about 2% of the total emissions of a lifetime of a vessel. So it's actually not that much, but again, of course, something worth looking into and also on our radar for sure.
Søren Nielsen
executiveAny further questions for Sophie and Jesper? No? Thank you very much then. Let me continue with the last presentation today from Torben Carlsen on the financial ambitions.
Torben Carlsen
executiveThank you. Thank you, Soren. Good. Let's -- I have a different slide in front of them here. Thank you. So you've heard what I'm saying now most of it before, but there are also some extra details, for example, on the CapEx. We want to increase the ROIC to above 10% by 2026. I hope you've been convinced also by what you heard, Mathieu, Niklas and Martin talking about that we have a good plan for that. We will demonstrate CapEx discipline staying with operational CapEx in the range of DKK 1.5 billion to DKK 2 billion annually in this period. In that range, we also actually have a couple of hundred million for CII improvements back to the question before to Jesper to make sure we stay within the ABC categories. Annual adjusted free cash flow, I was trying to mention that a lot of times today, that will be DKK 1.5 billion minimum per year. And we will drive down our leverage to around 2.5 by '26, taking it step-wise over the 3 years. So the ROIC increase will come from the organic growth acceleration. You've heard about the CapEx discipline. We will also look into buy versus lease optimizations similar to what we did with 3 mega Ro-Ros, this fall. We will resolve or at least reduce the impact from the challenged areas, that's the channel in the Baltics and we will deliver on the plans for bringing ROIC of the Mediterranean business unit and Continent Nordic Cold Chain and logistics up to at least the 8% ROIC. We show here in the table the difference between the reported ROIC and the ROIC when adjusting for the acquisition intangibles. And you do, of course, see that operationally, we do actually deliver reasonably high ROICs. But of course, we need to pay also for the acquisitions. CapEx forecast, you've seen the top before, that's the plan until '26, the operating CapEx and then below, you see the green ferry new buildings program on average over the 5 years from '26 to '30, it is just below DKK 1.5 billion per year for the 6 vessels, including some down payments for further vessels towards the end of the period and an ambition to have 6 vessels in operation. As you also noted from the presentation from Sophie-Kim and Jesper, we can actually achieve our goal with only 4 vessels, which also means that we are not going to take chances if we see the technology is not sufficiently mature or we do not have access, for example, to the infrastructure whether it's electricity or power to ex fuels before it is meaningful for us, there is flexibility in this plan, but we are absolutely committed to the minus 45% and can get there. We will also look during this period to how the mix between ownership of assets and other ways of getting control of the assets we need to be balanced. Cash flow and leverage, you've seen the leverage spiking during COVID. We never breached any covenants with the banks even in that extremely unprecedented and surprising situation. But we are now back in our policy range of 2 to 3, and it will be lower by the end of the year. We will gradually bring it down and Ekol acquisition will not make us go beyond the policy range, at least not for more than a quarter in that case. Capital distribution, we have a history back before the acquisition in Turkey of quite rich capital distributions. But as you saw in the previous slide, the leverage has been higher since then. We are now entering again an era where we will be lower and towards the mid-range, and we will return excess capital as has been the historical position for DFDS. We will look at our target leverage, and then for us, anything in excess of that is excess cash for distribution. As we expect, our EBITDA to increase over these 3 years. There will also be a strong capacity for payout everything equal, of course. We will look at, and at my table, there was a suggestion, why don't you buy back shares? And that's obviously also high on our mind that with the valuation we see in the market that it makes a lot of sense. Of course, in the end, that's a matter for the Board to decide the split between buyback and dividends when we get to that. So in summary, we set a, what we thought was quite an ambitious goal for 2023, at least I can see people in the room here saying that you will never get there. We got there. But as we've also seen today, there has also been challenges with the value creation on the journey. We now have a very strong network. I hope you've seen from my colleagues' presentations, how we are already benefiting from that and how we will continue to do that. And in '24 to '26, specifically, we'll continue to deliver on the acquisitions, close the gaps that we've talked about today accelerate the organic growth, both from the network, but also from the fact that we are located in high-growth areas. We will deliver adjusted free cash flow of DKK 1.5 billion each year. The green transition will take speed with 6 green ferries in operation by end 2030, a heavy reduction of our land activities emissions of 75% intensity and a continuation of the delivery of adjusted free cash flow of DKK 1.5 billion per year, also in that period despite the elevated CapEx that we look into. I hope that you have enjoyed today and let me take further questions before we then move into the adjacent rooms.
Michael Vitfell-Rasmussen
analystIt's Michael Rasmussen from Danske Bank. So now we've seen your new ambitions both financial targets but also longer-term targets. We unfortunately didn't hear Karina present today. But maybe you can share some light on kind of that process in terms of timing, but also in terms of type to deliver organic growth and improving ROIC and so forth. What are you looking for in terms of a new CFO?
Torben Carlsen
executiveMaybe Karina can -- she is actually here, of course. She thought herself that maybe when we talk about the future, it's better that those who are here to deliver it, put our hands on the cooking machine. But Karina is, of course, part of what we have built so far and stand behind what we are discussing today. I think we are obviously in the process of replacing Karina. Karina will stay here until a new person is in place. So let us talk about that once we have the person to not scare the candidates off with too many requirements that they hear about here.
Ruairi Cullinane
analystRuairi Cullinane, RBC. I was interested in your appetite for perhaps more bolt-on acquisitions. Clearly, at the start you did show that deals like the Lucey deal had delivered higher returns on some of the larger deals? Is there an inherent reason for that, like being able to pick them up at more attractive multiples?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWe do still have an appetite. I think Mathieu covered it briefly that there may be areas where the opportunities show up and also in logistics. With the size we have today some of the bolt-ons we've done in the past simply do not make sense. The complexity relative to the impact that they will have on DFDS. So we've at least moved the bar a little for how big they need to be before we can look into them. But we will always try to be disciplined in how we look at this from a pure cash flow perspective, this was the reason we showed you, we are not complete idiots, even though it shows a ROIC of 8% with these 2, it's actually a very attractive cash flow yield of 25. But we have some backlogs in integration, system integrations I think you heard a very convincing piece from Rune today, but we have backlogs with integration on some of the larger acquisitions. So also being respectful of that, we -- it needs to be something that is really needed to complement our offering before we will go for these smaller things. But it's not that we have lost appetite. We think we have such a strong machine now that we need to show the organic power embedded in that machine, first and foremost.
Unknown Analyst
analystHow do we look at the '24 on the top line, EBITDA and bottom line compared to this year?
Torben Carlsen
executiveWell, that would be giving guidance for next year, Frank, I don't think I can do that, all of a sudden. But we do, of course, see a macro environment that is challenging in all our markets, especially in the first half of '24 when we also listened to the customers. We will have top line growth already because of the acquisition in Strait of Gibraltar, but I will be a little bit cautious to talk more specifically about that until we release our Q4 where we will give a formal guidance for '24. But markets are tough out there.
Unknown Analyst
analystI can see from the slide that some of the more capital-intensive -- not that one.
Torben Carlsen
executiveJust checking if I had the right slide.
Dan Jensen
analystThat some of the more capital-intensive areas is only targeted or expected to have ROIC of 8% in 2016 the mid Cold Chain. What are the areas that then will provide the superior returns to reach the 10%? Where are these pockets of superior returns? And are they sticky, so to say?
Torben Carlsen
executiveI think you saw I was at the North Sea that Mathieu showed, that is probably the heavily -- most heavily invested area we have next to UN. But when we move UN more than a percentage point, that, of course, moves significantly the whole picture. But it is the DKK 600 million performance gap that I showed you that we aim to eliminate and that's 2 percentage points. If we don't succeed in that 100%, then I will walk around to my colleagues and find the other pockets that should deliver it. But it is DKK 600 million performance gap that we have to close. And then, of course, any new activities need to deliver the same level. So we think it's an ambitious goal. We don't think it's an impossible goal by any standard.
Ulrik Bak
analystUlrik Bak, SEB. Just for clarification, '27 to 2030 CapEx, you have the green CapEx, you showed the profile. Just for clarification, on top of that, you should put a number, DKK 1.5 billion to DKK 2 billion or thereabouts to get to the total CapEx, right?
Torben Carlsen
executiveThat will be prudent.
Ulrik Bak
analystThen additional question. You say that the impact from the Ekol transaction is expected to have an increase in the net debt to EBITDA of 0.2x. That implies that you already have agreed a purchase price.
Torben Carlsen
executiveNo, because of the rounding here, that's quite a big range that you can have and you don't know the nominator or the denominator, right? so could it be 2.25%, could it be, yes, absolutely. But it's to illustrate, this is not bringing us to a different range in terms of leverage.
Søren Nielsen
executiveWe have an online question from Lars Heindorff, Nordea. So how much of the journey towards 10% ROIC should be reached from volume growth and how much from the initiatives you have presented today? In other words, if you do nothing and it is business as usual, how far will the volume growth that you have assumed take you towards the 10%?
Torben Carlsen
executiveSo I guess what Lars is asking is if I -- if we don't fix the performance problems, what will the ROIC then look like in '26? We haven't run that scenario, it's not an option. But my guess is that you can say, implied in, for example, Martin's plan for Cold Chain is, of course, that the volume reductions we have seen in Cold Chain are going correct themselves, maybe not 100%, but to a large extent. So it is a mix of the 2, but let's say that half of it should come from general volume growth. And some of those volume growth will then also help fixing some of the performance issues.
Søren Nielsen
executiveAny further questions here from the floor?
Torben Carlsen
executiveThank you very much for coming today. Thank you very much for listening in online. Me and my team have really looked forward to this day. We think we have a great company. I was very proud of all my colleagues on stage today. I hope they managed to give you a much broader understanding of DFDS, what we are, what our capabilities, what our ambitions are, then Karina and I are able to do when we meet in quarterly sessions. So thank you very much for that. We understand that we've also put out some ambitions now that you will hold us to, and we will do, of course, our best to also deliver on those ambitions. Now there is a social event, management Mingle, it's called, is set on the 7th floor, so same place where you had lunch previously. It's an hour or so, we will be around, of course, if you have a flight to catch, you're also welcome to leave. But thank you very much for coming and look forward to interacting with you going forward.
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