DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (DBRG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 16, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Financials Capital Markets conference_presentation 38 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Brett Feldman

analyst
#1

All right. Everyone, welcome back to our next afternoon session here at Communacopia. I'm Brett Feldman, the firm's telecom infrastructure analyst. It's my great pleasure to welcome back to the conference, Marc Ganzi, the CEO of Colony Capital. Marc, thanks for being here.

Marc Ganzi

executive
#2

Thanks, Brett. Good to see you, and I love the manscaping. Well done.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#3

Thank you very much. Yes, listen, you're still a newish public company CEO. So indulge me, I want to read a little bit about your bio here for those who are tuning into the webcast. So for those of you who don't know, Marc, he's really one of the most well-known and well-regarded entrepreneurs driving investment and communications infrastructure on a global basis. He's been investing in this space for over 25 years. And over that period, he has been the CEO of 6 companies, probably most notably, Global Tower Partners, which he founded and ultimately acquired and sold to American Tower $4.8 billion. He followed that up by forming Digital Bridge Holdings, which invests across the communications infrastructure ecosystem, and he ultimately partnered and then merged it with Colony Capital last year as Colony looks to pivot more into the digital infrastructure space. And then on July 1 of this year, Marc formerly took over as the CEO of Colony Capital to lead this transition. So that's a long win to say of you know what you're doing.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#4

All right. And let's get into it here, all right? Under your leadership, Colony Capital is transitioning from this traditional REIT model into a digital infrastructure provider, but it might be helpful if you could just give us a brief overview of the makeup of Colony capital today? Where it is in the transition and much more importantly, your long-term vision for this company?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#5

Sure. And great to be here today. Where we are today is we're about 50%, Brett, through our rotation. And if you go back 2 years ago, less than 2% of our assets were digital at Colony. And today, now we have about $23 billion of asset management infrastructure of assets. And then we have roughly about $21 billion of traditional real estate assets. Where we've come in the last 7 months has been pretty miraculous. I mean we've been able to improve the balance sheet. We've been able to improve G&A by about $70 million. We're able to grow our FEEUM by about 22% as we rotate the [indiscernible]. And most importantly, we've been able to take our time and very methodically finalize our legacy real estate assets that we make this transition and make this and so we're [indiscernible] over the next year is ultimately going from a very complex, highly-levered diversifying-ed into a singular-focused diversified digital REIT that invest privately end companies and then uses our balance sheet, on high-quality digital assets that we put on the balance sheet. Ultimately, where we think we'll be by the first quarter of 2022 is we should be 100% rotated into Digital, we should be [indiscernible] $40 billion of Digital assets at less than 5% of this [ Vertical ] real estate assets, we continue to wind down some of those legacy funds and some of those positions and ultimately take what was once a very complex story and make it a very simple story for investors to understand. The simplicity in that could be the following: one, invest with me and the best management team in the digital infrastructure [indiscernible]. Two, take advantage of the mass effective tailwinds in digital infrastructure and sort of the macro thesis of that spend to support network infrastructure in the future where networks are going. Third, most importantly, deliver performance. And what we're aiming for is 25% to 30% AFFO growth in our digital product funds, and we think that will be a very good value proposition for investors and [indiscernible] other digital infrastructure asset classes for other logos, [indiscernible] to put capital, but where we want to be is we want to be [indiscernible] in the future. And really focusing on converged networks -- converge network solutions for our customers, where we think, ultimately, we can grow a little faster than our [indiscernible]. And that's the value [indiscernible]

Brett Feldman

analyst
#6

Great. That was a great overview. And I just want to make sure I got a couple of those stats, correct. I think you said by the first quarter of '22, you're expecting to be essentially 100% rotated over to the digital model. I think you're targeting over $40 billion of assets and digital infrastructure by that point, correct?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#7

Correct, yes.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#8

Okay. So then the growth rate you're targeting in AFFO from your digital assets, 25% to 30%. I mean that's not slightly ahead of what we see in other public companies in the sector. That's substantially above. I mean, we usually look at double-digit as being a strong growth rate in that category. What is it about the way you've structured the company where you think you can outgrow your peers by that rate?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#9

Well, what's interesting is we have 2 forms of digital growth at Colony today. On one side, we have our investment management platform. And so that's 15 companies, that's more than $20 billion of assets and that's our private investment management platform. A lot of you would associate that with the likes of Blackstone or EQT or other investment managers. We're [indiscernible] investment management products, putting that capital to work. We're raising new capital, and we generate something called FEEUM. And so really, that's our earnings from fees that are generated from third-party capital that we manage for others. And so where we've taken that business in a very short period of time, is we've been able to grow FEEUM by close to 23%. And how do we do it? There's really kind of 3 different investment products that we invest in on a daily basis: One, we have our equities platform, and our equities platform is Digital Colony Partners in some of the great legacy companies that you know, Brett, of course, like Vertical Bridge and ExteNet, Mexico Tower Partners, Vantage, DataBank, ATP, all of these are companies that predated our first bond Digital Colony Partners line. Then we have our credit platform, we recently put in place a very, very strong credit team. We're now investing in digital credit. And really where our equity team can't invest, Brett, we're giving ourselves hands to play in the capital whether it's second lien, whether it's convertible preferreds, first lien or buying secondary stakes of other people's debt. We think we have that great knowledge base to take our tool set and our management team to leverage that expertise to provide capital to folks that don't need equity. Not everybody needs growth equity, sometimes the better solution is providing a customer or another company the opportunity to grow through using variable [indiscernible]. And last but not least, we have a liquid securities group, digital accounting liquid securities is something we've managed about $200 million of capital. We look to build long positions. We represent other people's capital. And so across liquid and credit and equity, we have a massive platform to invest. And that platform is growing very fast. [ Private ] capital wants to give us money. They find our investment products are really fascinating and are performing. And so as long as we continue to perform and we continue to put capital out, and we create unique and proprietary ideas, we're going to get more capital following those ideas. And so what you're seeing is that growth is on one side of the ledger. You're seeing that growth in investment management. And then on the other side of ledger, we're seeing the growth in our policy. If you go back a year ago, we didn't have any digital assets [indiscernible]. We had hotels, and we had medical profit. And where we are today is we made a strategic investment in December in DataBank, which is our edge computing business. We're very excited about edge computing. I want to talk to you about that today and share with you some of our thoughts and ideas of where the edge is going. And then recently, in July this year, we made a strategic investment, partnering with Vantage, tieing 12 of the best domestic U.S. data centers out there, 12 hyperscale data centers that have long-term contracts, embedded escalators, over 90% investment-grade counterparty risk growing at 3% per annum with a weighted average contract duration over 11 years. So this is really the most highly investment-grade hyperscale data centers you can find. And there really isn't a vehicle that's actually gone out and just done hyperscales, right? You think once again about our peer group, whether it's QTS, whether it's CoreSite, whether it's our friends at CyrusOne or our friends of Digital Realty, they're intermixing hyperscale with Colo. They're intermixing hyperscale with managed services. The Vantage stabilized assets that we put on to the Colony balance sheet is a pure hyperscale vehicle, fully of its time. In it we believe that will produce about a 6% to 7% current cash yield and over the long term, 11% to 12% [indiscernible]

Brett Feldman

analyst
#10

Principal secular trends driving that demand? And ultimately, how much of that do you think is addressable to Colony Capital?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#11

Well, look, today, I mean, just 2020, if you think about digital infrastructure, Brett, then we put it sort of into 4 swim lanes and you say there's fiber, there's towers, there's data centers and there's small cells. In 2020, our customers will spend $378 billion of CapEx in 2020. That's up from the previous year, which was about $340 billion of Capex. So we see the CapEx curve moving up. Why is it moving up? Adaptation, 5G, IoT networks, content, software development work, Open RAN architecture. All of these themes require more CapEx. And then with the overlay of COVID on top, where we've seen this rush to proliferation of moving that data and that infrastructure to the edge, we see sort of a double effect, which was there was already growth coming from 5G and the adaptation of cloud, but now with COVID as network architecture is shifting, we're seeing sort of a double shift in terms of those secular tailwinds. So as we unpack that $378 billion TAM today, about $200 billion of that sits in fiber. I know it's really hard to believe fiber is now the leading part of the marketplace. And why? Fiber is really that connective tissue, as you know, that binds all of this infrastructure together, to make applications work, to make the data center work, to make towers work, to make small cells work, fiber to the home, everything revolves around these railroads of the future, which is fiber. And so our biggest investment this year was a $14 billion investment in Zayo. We did that in conjunction with our friends at [indiscernible] and [indiscernible] and it's been a fantastic investment. You heard from Dan Caruso early today. That the business is going incredibly well, and we're doing all the things that we do there, but the big chunk of that $378 billion, $200 billion sits in fiber. Small cells are still pretty small, only $5 billion of that TAM sits at small cell infrastructure. And then the rest is divided between towers and data centers. And so as we think about that, we see a TAM that's growing. Our trajectory right now in our private capital markets group and our investment management platform is we're putting out $2.5 billion of equity a year to that marketplace. And so as you think about $378 billion being the total digital [indiscernible] TAM, of which about $250 billion of that is equity interest in debt, we think our share of the marketplace from a Colony perspective we're looking to grab 1% of that TAM. So as you look at our projections over the next 5 years, as we talk about growing AFFO to over $200 million of digital AFFO over the next 3 years, all you have to believe is that we could have 1% of that market share. I think we can grab more. That's our bet. But the other thing I would say is digital infrastructure TAM spend right now, a lot of it's on mobility. So this year, $96 billion will be spent on mobility, which is principally 5G, as you know. And next year, we believe that will be $98 billion, but once again, that TAM is also growing as we move towards 5G. We believe 5G, Brett, is a $1.1 trillion digital infrastructure [indiscernible] actually effectively build out 5G, we think it's not a 3-year cycle. We don't think it's a 10-year cycle. We believe it's a 7-year investment cycle to build out 5G for all the mobile carriers around [indiscernible]. I think this phenomenon of digital infrastructure CapEx will continue to grow, which is why you see a lot of interest that's increasing in our sector today.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#12

Excellent global overview, and you mentioned fiber. I'm actually surprised by that statistic. I think a lot of people are that fiber is the biggest piece of it. So let's start with that. And as you pointed out, we did have Dan Caruso, the CEO of Zayo here earlier today. He was very upbeat. Your businesses or your portfolio companies had not really include -- included any significant fiber infrastructure prior to doing the Zayo deal. And I remember having spoken to you in the past that you had been looking, you were frustrated, you didn't like the prices or you didn't like the quality. And it finally came together here. What was it about this time in this asset that really made you excited to make this investment?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#13

I think, first, it starts with Dan. It's about relationships. So one of the great things is, Dan and I have been friends for 13 years, and I remember the first time a banker tried to introduce us is that you got to meet Dan Caruso. He's the Marc Ganzi of the fiber space. And then Dan called me up and said, somebody told me I've got to meet you because you're the Dan Cruso of the tower space. So we became friends very quickly, and I have a great matter of respect and appreciation for Dan. When Dan was a public story, and Dan and I've had a great dialogue for many years, I think Dan became frustrated with principally that how Zayo was currently sitting from a shareholder base, and it was a public vehicle. And I think we both had really good long conversations about how we believe that fiber was principally infrastructure. And nobody understands fiber infrastructure and broadband infrastructure better than Dan Caruso. And so for where Zayo needed to go and for where Zayo needed to serve its customers, we couldn't live -- that business couldn't live quarter-to-quarter, Brett, because the CapEx decisions you're making are incredibly complex if you're building a long-haul route, between Dublin and Slough, you're building a long-haul route between Chicago and New York City for the [indiscernible], those types of bets are complicated, and it requires a lot of CapEx layout. And sometimes you don't see those returns, for 3 years, 5 years, 6 years and 7 years as you begin to lease those pairs. So if you build a web-scale route, let's just say, for example, between Dallas and Atlanta and you put in the ground, 240 pairs and your anchor customer is only leasing 4 to 12 pairs, it's going to take you a while to recoup that CapEx. And so the story of Zayo, from our perspective, was a long-term infrastructure story that was in its former incarnation was sitting as a public story where Dan was trying to manage the information quarter-to-quarter. In [ repart ] that people were having a difficult time sort of digesting the long-term nature of that business. So when the timing came, and Dan tried to break that business up rightly so into an infrastructure business and into an enterprise business, the market could digest it, couldn't understand it. And the share price was sort of -- was being flocked because of it, and I went to Dan, I said, look, you've got the best set of assets in the United States, far enough. I mean, I've looked at every fiber deal for the last 7 years since we formed Digital Bridge and the Zayo plant spread is the best plant out there from a strand count, from a utilization rate, from the KMZ files from a metro overlay, Zayo fiber would take decades to replicate. And not only just the sheer nature of where that infrastructure sits, but most importantly, the capacity to grow in the open strand count that Dan had, and we saw a huge opportunity in that. And so when we unpack the physical nature of those network elements, they were vastly superior. And then with the public story being sort of confusing to investors, his stock began to trade almost down to CenturyLink levels, but he really has one of the best -- what we felt was one of the best wholesale digital infrastructure business out there. So when we struck that deal on 11x, we felt like we got the best network out there. We got it at the best price. We didn't have to pay 30x like some of the private infrastructure funds are paying today, and we have a nationwide footprint. And we have arguably the deepest [indiscernible] footprint out there across the entire country. So there's a huge opportunity, as Dan said, today, to go deeper into some of those metro markets. There's a huge opportunity for Dan to go back on the ground, start tying stuff in. And there's a huge opportunity for us to build new web-scale routes in long-haul [indiscernible]. So the business has never been in a better place. I think our business and our sort of philosophy on how to help Dan and the management team is: One, [indiscernible] capital; two, refinance all the debt, lower their interest costs, they have more free cash flow; three, get rid of noncore businesses and make the business simpler; four, get the private [ letter ] rolling with respect to where we need to go in terms of the long-term infrastructure side of the business; and then five, just give that management team the necessary tools to make the changes and needs to grow and really focus on net bookings and really take advantage of the quality of that network. So there's a lot of things happening in Zayo today. I think it's incredibly exciting. It's exciting for Dan. It's exciting for our customers. And I'm really, really bullish about where Zayo is going over the next 5 to 10 years.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#14

I want to say there's one more question about this. And you alluded to public investors not really being able to figure out the asset. And I kind of agree with that, but I think part of it was public investors had a view as to what the run rate of growth was supposed to be within a short window. And as you pointed out, leasing up infrastructure is not something that happens overnight, even Dan acknowledged today that he thinks the growth potential of the company is greater than what the growth rate of the company is today. Do you think we're getting to something like an inflection point, for lack of a better phrase, where there's going to be more consistent, meaningful sources of demand for fiber infrastructure? And if so, can you give us an outline as to what you think those 1 or 2 or 3 things might be?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#15

Well, look, I think, first and foremost, this proliferation to the edge is probably the biggest opportunity. And sort of as networks need to be fortified and densified, I think one of the best opportunities right now in the fiber space is on that wholesale basis, Brett. So working with cable operators, working with other mobile operators, working with data center providers, edge data center providers and the ability to scale broadband connectivity into the corridor areas, into the suburbs, in the secondary and tertiary markets, that's going to be a huge opportunity. And so as we all know, most of that network infrastructure is wildly underbuilt to serve where the network traffic has gone over the last 7 months. As you think about the migration path of work from home, school from home, fitness from home, content from home. All of these trends are putting enormous pressure in the suburbs and in secondary and tertiary markets. And so there's an immediate opportunity to scale with those customers and help them build network infrastructure. So I think that's one. Two, I see no slowdown in web-scale activity. So as part and parcel to those workloads starting to move out to the edge, so as you think about historically, cloud computing in the sort of Amazon or Microsoft or Google way as being these massive hyperscale data centers in big markets where they tether fiber out and ultimately, the network proliferates in the traditional hub-and-spoke way, I think you have to rethink this network architecture a little bit. And so what I believe is happening is those web-scale logos now want smaller workloads further out in the perimeter than ever. And so instead of having 100 cabinets and building a super node somewhere. It's now a smaller edge location where they've got 4 racks, 8 racks, 12 racks that needs to be supported by not 2 strands of fiber, but 12 or 20 or 36 pairs and you start building these unique suburban relationships with the webscalers. And what we're finding is they start with a little bit of capacity and then they scale up. And so you got to get there early. You got to be there when they're making those decisions. They're changing that network architecture. And so this is about convergence, right? This is about the notion that we're starting to push workloads to the perimeter. It's where applications are meeting mobility and how do you provide that right infrastructure solution, Brett, where you're capturing both of those things at the same time, right? You have to capture the front haul portion of the network, you have to capture the workloads of the data center side, and you have to capture the mobile solutions in an Open RAN architecture. It's really fricken complex, but it's really fun. It's really interesting.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#16

Well, let's spend a little more time then on data centers. You talked briefly about what you've done with Vantage, that's sort of your positioning in the hyperscale space. You were just talking about edge. What's Colony due to be positioned in edge computing or an edge infrastructure?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#17

Sure. So we bought 21% of DataBank last December. And it was a great deal for us because one of our controlled vehicles on the private investment side had about 40% of the company, so we bought a 21% stake from 2 other investors. And so from a governance perspective, we control about over 60% of the voting interest in that company. We have a 21% economic interest in that company. We love DataBank, we love what it's doing. We've got a great management team there [indiscernible] has been owning and operating and building data center infrastructure for decades and most importantly, in the '90s was building fiber infrastructure. So we have a great understanding of interconnection, fiber and most importantly, where those workloads are shifting. We bought DataBank about 4 years ago as a small, very subscale data center operator in Dallas, 6 data centers. And what we've done is through a combination of M&A in greenfield, we've added a ton of new inventory. And today, we have close to 23 data centers in 9 markets, and we're looking to grow that asset. We think that's arguably one of the most attractive assets we have in Colony today. Where can that company go? I think there's 2 directions we see edge computing going. First and foremost, we want to keep densifying those secondary and tertiary markets. We're having great success in places like Pittsburgh, Bluffdale in Utah, Kansas City, Eden Prairie, Minneapolis. I mean these aren't like -- these are big cities, but they're not exactly New York City and Los Angeles and San Francisco. And so what we're finding is our customer workloads are shifting breadth, and they want that capacity in those secondary and tertiary markets. And look, we still [indiscernible] play it's [ penalty ]. It's a copycat league. We love what Equinix has done. We have great respect for [ Charles Smith ] and their business model. And kind of what we've done is we've created an Equinix of the secondary and tertiary markets. And it's worked out incredibly well. We've got close to 10,000 cross-connects. So we have a very big interconnection business that fuels a lot of that connectivity, but ultimately leads to folks putting racks in our data centers. The other thing that I think Equinix -- I mean, I'm sorry, that DataBank is doing really well, is we're beginning to work with a lot of the OEMs on the mobility side. And so as we think about software-defined networks, and ultimately where that high-power compute needs to fit. It needs to sit on the edge of the network. And so working with some of the mobile carriers and working with some of the OEMs, that I won't name, but we've recently done 2 deals with 2 different OEMs that are serving as SDN sort of what I would call high-powered nodes that are providing that network intelligence to the mobile operators in places like Dallas and places like Kansas and Pittsburg. I think that's really exciting. I think the fact that OEMs are going into a controlled Tier 3 environment, and they're putting a significant amount of those workloads and that network intelligence there, and we have a lot of fiber where we can proliferate out to those cRAN hubs. And that cRAN hubs then fuel the intelligence out to the nodes and the towers. You're basically reverse-engineering the network. Everything used to be -- it started at the tower. We backhaul it. Now we're taking the network intelligence calling it out to the infrastructure, the complete reversal of network architecture and DataBank's on the front edge of that. So we're excited. It's doing incredibly well. It's up 6% against plan for the year. And we're really thrilled with that. I think the second growth product in edge is the small edge data centers. You've heard a lot of chatter about this, whether it's EdgePresence or EdgeMicro or Vapor IO. These are all companies, Brett, that you've met with over the last [indiscernible] years. They're interesting business models. They're nascent, right? And I think they're all in sort of the trial and error phase of where they fit in the ecosystem. And I think at DataBank, we've made a partnership with one of those providers. We've proliferated a couple of edge data centers already. We're kind of in what I would call the trial and error phase and trying to figure out what works and what doesn't work. The key to all this is can you lease the product. Everyone can drop off an edge data center anywhere they want. I mean it's a continuous. It's like, Brett, it looks like one of the shelters we were building in the lake [indiscernible] the big shelters that have the backup generators, and there was a raised container. And you walked in, and there was like a [indiscernible] and that was a [indiscernible] edge data centers now, if you think computers that are being dropped in [indiscernible] and look just like an old macro in the late '90s. So everything that's old is new again or whatever is new is old. But I think it's interesting, DataBank is pursuing those 2 strategies. Big data centers that sit on the edge in Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets, not trying to go directly at Equinix. And so thinking about this smaller micro strategy where we [indiscernible] the fiber, connect it to one of our edge data centers and use that as a tethering strategy where we can take workloads and shift them a little bit closer to the edge of the network.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#18

Yes. That was an excellent overview. And I want to ask a follow-up question. You just sort of alluded to it at the end of that answer. You talked about we're also bringing in the fiber, right? You're a portfolio of companies. To what extent is their coordination across the Colony capital portfolio companies? And do you have any evidence yet that they're actually performing better than their stand-alone disconnected competitors because they have these affiliated businesses?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#19

Well, look, I mean, we -- I just told you one hint right there. The ability to proliferate micro or edge data centers at the cell tower could not be enabled without the approval of the tower company. We happen to own the largest private tower company in Vertical Bridge, have a great CEO in Alex Gellman, who you know quite well. And Alex and Rahul build this edge strategy for putting these containers at the edge. There's an example of where both DataBank and Vertical Bridge will grow together. And the core FFO of both those businesses will grow because they're working together. Certainly, Zayo and ExteNet have work together. ExteNet uses Zayo Fiber as much as they can. So [indiscernible] use small cells, and we need dark fiber we need more [indiscernible]. Jim [indiscernible] gets on the phone and he calls Dan Cruso. So we try to fuel more bookings there. There's great collaboration, for example, between Vertical Bridge and Dan Cruso at Zayo. They've worked on a big contract with Walmart together to provide fiber and also build towers and provide rooftop in [indiscernible]. So there's so many different ways our portfolio conferences together. I mean, sometimes it happens with [indiscernible] and pushing it and sometimes it happens quite naturally. I found out after the fact that DataBank and Vertical Bridge are working together on a deal. So it's really good. It's -- these are 15 CEOs that know each other well. They get together at least once a year. They're on quarterly conference calls together. They're always changing ideas. For example, Sureel Choksi runs Vantage. And Rahul talk all the time. If there's a workload that's [indiscernible] 1 megawatt [indiscernible] gets on the phone and Rahul said "oh, by the way, this customer is looking for 0.75 megawatts in Salt Lake City, you need to go grab it". And they pass deals back and forth to each other all the time. So there's an immense amount of collaboration that happens with the portfolio companies. And I think there's more we can do, Brett. We haven't been able to quantify what the incremental, is it 20 bps? Is it 80 bps? What's the incremental growth coming if company is working together? But What I do know is they do work together, they do pass business to each other, and it's been a tremendous first half year. Every one of the 15 companies we operate posted positive organic growth in the first quarter and the second quarter. So it's been it's been a great view.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#20

That's great to hear. And you referenced towers. I want to see if we can pivot and talk about that a little bit. We're basically right at the front end of the 5G cycle. And as you know, the 3G cycle and the 4G cycle were pretty positive cycles for tower operators. And so the question we get now is that will the 5G cycle yield the same uplift in tower demand that we saw with 3G and 4G, what's different and what hasn't changed?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#21

Well, I think first and foremost, it really depends on the company. You've heard me say this now for the last 3 or 4 years, we've now finally begun to see separation between SBA, Crown, American and Cellnex. It actually is hard-core operational differentiation between 4. They are 4 very different companies with 4 very different management teams. The ability to profit from 5G is largely based on these holistic [indiscernible]. And so it's a question of what have you done? What have you given away, what didn't you give away? And how should people think about those holistic agreements? And I would just say categorically that all 4 of those companies are world-class. They're all between Tobias and Jeff and Tom and of course, Jay, they're all friends, and I think they're excellent CEOs. They have 4 very different approaches. So I mean, for example, if you pull an 8-K and you go look at the master service agreement that Cellnex has recently done with some of their big sale-leasebacks, they've given away a significant amount of loading. And the way that they think about it is in [indiscernible] square meters in [indiscernible], and so what you have is you've got things like [ ping ] sharing, you've got loading and ton of those opportunities, perhaps some of those economics [indiscernible] if you ultimately do a sale-leaseback deal where you give away a lot of those entitlements to the anchor, you got to be careful. And when you're valuing these companies as a public investor, you should go read those master lease agreements and understand what was given away. I mean, yesterday, was a good example. We saw the deal that Tom did with our friends in [indiscernible] and actually, we spent the entire morning picking apart that agreement and trying to understand who is the winner? And I can honestly say we're friends of both guys on the trade, it actually is both parties won, it was kind of interesting from our perspective, which means that you can still do major wholesale agreements where both parties walk win and feel good about that. I think T-Mobile walked away and felt pretty good. They got to decom the sites that they wanted to decom with respect to the legacy sprint stuff. I think from Tom and Steve Vondran perspective, they got what they want. They got a long-term agreement that ultimately goes from $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion. They've got embedded growth over a 15-year period. They've got quality of earnings, predictability of earnings, which is quite, candidly, you love about Tower. And so I think there's still a lot of good growth activity in 5G. And there's certainly room for win. And I think yesterday's announcement demonstrated that both T-Mobile and American Tower wanted to win and I think the ultimate winner will be the consumer. Now what can happen is T-Mobile can deploy their gear across the system a lot faster, good for T-Mobile and their customers at the end of the day. I think with SBA and Crown, it's going to be on a case-by-case basis. I think Jeff has always had this great philosophy that every tower has an intrinsic value. You know this. You spend so much time with depth. He believes that every tower is a unique piece of real estate. And that that piece of real estate has value. And look at the share price performance of SBA over the last 5 years from $100 to $320, you can't argue with Jeff's strategy about being sort of very focused on the singular strength of a tower location. And then last but not least, what Jay is doing, and I think Jay is thinking more holistically about customer relationships. They've done these big amend and extend [indiscernible]. Jay's got a massive small cell portfolio that [indiscernible] into 5G. I'm very bullish on what Crown is doing, that is a long ramp for expansion. And probably, if you think about organic growth than the one tower company around the globe that has the most adds to get the most organic growth in 5G, it should be Crown given their physical plan of where their fiber is, where their small cell infrastructure is and where their domestic towers are, they should be able to profit from that, but I always want to tell folks, the tower business has changed. It radically changed in 10 years. And all these guys used to be a herd, and they would move together. This is since not the case anymore. These are 4 very, very different stories with 4 different management teams and 4 different value propositions and investors more than ever today, [indiscernible] that will do the work.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#22

All right. Well, I want to follow with you on that. I want to ask you about something that seems like it's a little different. Historically, when carriers have been adding sites to their network, they were usually doing it because they had a coverage hole and the network told them, we have a problem over here. So you would go there, and they'd usually be one tower and that tower operator would get that business or there would be a capacity hole. So you'd go there, and you'd probably be 1 tower operator and that tower operator would get that business. And it was really a great cycle for tower operators. T-Mobile currently has more sites than it currently needs. Its challenge right now is to get rid of some and DISH, which has a requirement to build a significant number of sites has none, so it's starting with a blank sheet of paper. And as you know, there's a generation of tower companies that have come up recently that have a different perspective on what lease terms should look like. So I'm just curious from your standpoint, do you think that those are examples of situations where those sites, those developers, those network builders actually have more ability to weigh cost versus location because they have some flexibility about where they put their sites?

Marc Ganzi

executive
#23

Well, look, it's a cost of capital issue. I mean, if you think about some of these smaller independent tower companies that are backed by, whether it's private infrastructure capital or private capital in general, there's more capital sitting on the sidelines than there are opportunities. And so what you're seeing is some of these management teams that kind of -- they've been around for 10, 15 years, as our new management team. They've just managed to build and flip, build and flip, build and flip. I think in this cycle, the build and flip strategy is going to be hard. Why is it going to be harder? You're generally building on your single-tenant economics to a low single-digit yield, some of these guys are building to a negative yield. So they're banking on that first amendment or they're banking on that colo. And when you're doing build to [indiscernible] and you're building a tower right next to American or Crown or SBA, and you're hoping to get that second and third tenant. Well, you know what's going to happen if American Tower or Crown loses one of those tenants to a brand-new tower that's half a mile down the street, they're going to dig in to save and retain the [indiscernible] their third tenant. So this notion that there's going to be a limited lease-up like there was 10 years ago. [indiscernible] And so we've seen some of these models, right? We've seen some of these new independent builders that are out building for AT&T and Verizon and T-Mobile, and we understand that their model is to grow, and they've got private capital and they want to grow, but on the flip side of that, the carriers want to use them. The carriers are using them as a wedge to create leverage so that they can get the big public guys back to the table and negotiate these holistic agreements where they have the right to decom sites because right at the end of the day, Neville's job is he's got to deliver the network synergies. And Mike's going to hold him to that number. And so what the guys at T-Mobile are doing is incredibly clear, they're going to decom 25,000 to 35,000 sites over the next 5 years. They have more sites than they know what to do it. And look, if some of those sites can go to Dave -- over to David Charlie [indiscernible] at DISH or probably from [indiscernible], there's a great relationship between the senior leadership at T-Mobile and Dave Mayo. Dave Mayo built [indiscernible]. I think that relationship is pretty tight. And if Dave can leverage some of that existing hole sprint infrastructure, he will. But at the same time, Dave, it is super pragmatic, and he can come up with a lower-cost solution. Make no mistake, Dave Mayo will go with a low-cost solution, provided it meets his coverage objectives. And so I think there'll be a little bit of mixture here at the end of the day, Brett. I think you're going to see some of those decom T-Mobile sites will end up over at DISH. Some of them will be passed on. Nonetheless, you will still see, as we've talked about before, when 2 carriers get together, you have an immediate rush, there's some short term demand. Then you see in kind of the 12- to 18-month frame, you see the decoms, right, like you saw with [indiscernible] like you saw with Metro, you can measure that churn. And I think for Jeff and Jay and Tom, they're going to be transparent with the [indiscernible] development. And look, if you think about the low end of that guide point, 25,000 macro being decom, 10,000 of those go to DISH, and you end up with 15,000 decoms against 380,000 cell sites [indiscernible] right, small. I mean, we have to keep this in proper perspective at the end of the day, which is a very small churn event for the industry. Now it will be short-term on a cash basis, short-term pain for the 3 public companies but ultimately, as they renegotiate these MLAs with T-Mobile over the long-term on a holistic basis and on a GAAP basis, investors really won't feel that thing.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#24

All right. Well, Marc, like always these conversations always seem to end so quickly. This was an awesome catch up like usual. Thanks so much for being here with us virtually, and I certainly look forward to doing this in real-life next year.

Marc Ganzi

executive
#25

Likewise, Brett, thank you for having me. I appreciate it. And really enjoying the conference. Thank you so much.

Brett Feldman

analyst
#26

Great. Great to see you, Marc.

Marc Ganzi

executive
#27

Take care. Be well.

Read the full transcript via the API

You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete DigitalBridge Group, Inc. transcript — plus 252,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments, AI summaries and full-text search — through the EarningsCalls.dev API.

Get the API View API docs →

This call discussed

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to DigitalBridge Group, Inc. earnings transcripts and 252,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.