DSV A/S (DSV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 21, 2026

CPSE DK Industrials Air Freight and Logistics earnings 68 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the DSV Q3 2026 Conference Call. I'm Morris, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jens Lund, Group CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Jens Lund

executive
#2

Good morning, and welcome to our Q3 call. We are, as usual, Mike and I to present the results. And I'll go through some of the first slides here. And then later on, Michael, he will go some of the other points on the agenda. So let's quickly go into it, and we can start basically by, I think, the most important topic for many of you during the quarter. We can say that the service levels on Road. They are back on track and policy issues that we had, they are resolved. But of course, it has had the consequence that our synergies that will be realized a little bit later on the Road side because we've had to have focus on solving those issues. In general, on Group level, the GP is up 2.3%. When we made the business plan for acquiring Schenker, we said we're going to lose certain volume, our GP at the end of the day. And now, let's say, in the Q3, it's really great to see that we're back on the growth trajectory when it comes to GP. On the EBIT side, we've grown significantly more because, of course, the synergies that we realize drives a higher conversion. And I mean, at the end of the day, also the EPS [indiscernible] has come up. We're right now at 11.5% growth. So we also see that it trickles all the way down to the bottom. This has led to a situation where we are now going into the fourth quarter. So we've narrowed our grinds. We've done this, of course, because normally, you start the year with a broader guidance, and now we have more certainty when it comes to the result. So the guidance is now between DKK 24 million and DKK 25 billion in EBIT. If we look at the cash flow, we've delivered a solid cash flow here in the quarter, even if the freight rates are still elevated, not least on ocean freight. And we've started the first share buyback program since we acquired Schenker. So all in all, that were some of the highlights from Q3. Just wanted to a few words on the integration as well. I think we are continuing as per plan. There's only a few countries outstanding, no major countries left on the integration and much of the custom integration also done. So good progress on that one. Of course, then we just talked about the issues that we've had on Road. That leads to a little delay in the realization of the synergies. So that will happen now and be finalized in 2027. Basically, the expected outcome and also the costs in relation there to remain the same, but of course, a little bit delayed also on the special items into '27. If we look at the financial highlights for the quarter for the Group, I think the earnings growth we just talked about and I think also that the GP has grown. This is something that we are very focused on here in the headquarter that we add more value to our customers. And of course, then also that we convert that into a solid growth in the operational results. I would say that the Air & Sea division has delivered as expected, and CL has delivered a very solid result, I should say. And then, of course, the Road results, they are clearly affected by the quality issues that we've had. The cash flow for the quarter, DKK 6.4 billion. And I already talked about the revision of the -- basically the narrowing of our guidance. So that's really the financial highlights. If we look at Air & C, I think 1 thing that is important, and we have also just added a slide on Global Products. That used to be part of the results for the divisions. And therefore, if you look here now, you will say, well, the gross profit has grown 0.2%. But if we adjusted for the GP that we've taken out on Air & Sea, actually, we've grown 2.8% year-over-year, but that's always what happens when you move some of the volume around that it's a little bit blurry what's the baseline and then what's the actual figures. And are they fully comparable. So we just added this information on the right side here. If you look at basically the conversion ratio, it continues to increase, and we are aspiring to get up to the 50% target. Also during the next year, well, we will definitely see an impact of [indiscernible] work we do on productivity. And then, of course, the EBIT margin also trending towards the 10%. If we look at airfreight, we grew the GP 4%. Actually, during the quarter, we did still we've had this where we sanitized the portfolio, and this actually continued a little bit into July. After July, basically, we finished this and I would say the general trend on the airfreight is that we've seen that the volumes into Europe still under pressure and not least the volumes related to automotive. On the other side, of course, we've seen progress on the technology vertical, where we've grown our volumes and as you can see also the yield at a very solid level, almost 9,000 per tonne. And overall, as I said, the GP has increased by 4%. So we are quite happy about that. If we look at the Ocean Freight, the GP has decreased by 4% and yields a little bit down and volumes are also slightly down on the ocean freight. What we are working on right now is we are very, very much focused on the commercial activity in the Ocean Freight to make sure that we swing the trend around and I would say both for Air and for Ocean. We've seen that we are slowly getting into a situation where we've basically leveled out, and we should hopefully, during the next quarter, start to see the inflection point where we get growth. Yield is at DKK 4,100 at the end of the quarter. So basically, if you look over the cycle, it's more or less the same as we had Q3 '25 and basically the composition of VAS and freight markup is also in the 1/3, 2/3 range. So 1/3 is like the freight markup and 23 is best. Then we come to Road. Here on Road, we can see not least on the GP, what impact the issues that we've had has on the GP in our company. I would say that difference is probably, let's say, approximately 1/3 related to extra cost due to the quality issue, so they should go. And then the remaining part is actually that we like volume in the network. So we need to have this commercial focus now that we've solved the operational issue, we've put that behind us. It's very important that to get that message across that the quality in the network is solid. So now it's the commercial activities that we're looking into. And when we look at the commercial activities, I think it's also important here to state that how this normally works is that you try to fix the quality issue first. Now that's solved. Then what you want to work on is basically that you want to work on making then the sales calls. Of course, in the beginning when you have quality issues, it takes a while before you start the sales cost. So we've started that in September here, really intensified the interaction with the customers, building up the pipeline. Then once the customers they accept our proposals. And here, you have to remember that we have the strongest Grupo's network days in Europe. So it's not that we can't get the appointments, the customers, they do want to talk to us. Then basically, we have converted some of that, and then we will have to make the integration if it's a customer that needs an IT integration before we go live. So that cycle will probably take at least 90 days. So what we sell right now will then come in, let's say, in 3 months. So it has a delay impact. We can look at all the KPIs, NPS has improved. And just also, there's been some concern was the spillover on the NPS to other divisions. It has not spilled over. So they basically have a very solid NPS development in the other divisions. But of course, the Net Promoter Score has declined. But right now, it's actually -- it's had the trough and now it's increasing again. So that's really the status when it comes to Road. We just put some KPIs here. And I can tell you that normally, historically, the performance has probably been more in the 92% range. So having 94% in [indiscernible] is very solid. So -- but as you can see, the trend line has been increasing all the time. We are concerned about -- we're very happy in August when we saw the 92.4%, but we were concerned when the volumes come back after the summer holiday, whether it would be sustainable. And actually, it's proved that the initiatives we have taken have continued to improve the delivery quality. So that's really positive. So well done to the Road division, I would say. If we take the Contract Logistics, here, you can see that we've actually grown the ed with 50%. If we exclude the properties, we've grown it with 42%. So a very, very solid performance. Two things have driven this performance. One thing is that we continue to salute our portfolio and basically cleaning out business that don't deliver the desired outcomes. And then the other one is that we've seen -- that we've managed to compensate for that volume, we've taken out with new volume in particular for the hyperscalers. So these 2 things in combination, they are really important. I think what is also important for you to notice that we see that based on the pace that we grow with the hyperscalers is going to continue. We can see the pipelines. They're very, very solid. So I think you should expect that the CL division will continue this journey that it's on. And of course, that's very positive because 1 of the things that we were criticized for was the low return on invested capital. And now you can see that there's a better connection, we are now at 10.9% on the return on invested capital. And the comparable figure was DKK 6.9 million. So of course, this growth in EBIT, but also the focus on the capital that we have deployed, it has really helped us a lot. And I think you know that it wouldn't surprise me if we managed to take what can I say, another step up at year end and it would may be very proud to trend towards the 15% that we've set as a target for the Contract Logistics division and take another step in the next quarter. So well done to contract logistics on that. Then I'll just say last call, people they were asking a few questions about this global products and rightfully so. So we've just taken a slide and said, listen, what kind of activities is it that needs an enterprise approach. So that is not part of a country-based setup and that should have a life on them. So here the products that we move to, what can I say, a separate structure. It's called fairs and events. This is where you have to have specialty knowledge for fairs, events, all these kind of things and have to have this knowledge across countries. This is very important. On the parcels, it's the same. We are 3PL on parcels. And also here, you need perhaps a more network approach in order to continue to develop that. And then of course, the custom is always quite important as well. Normally, it's part of a country-based setup. And we've decided to make an enterprise function out of that. And this is then also so that we can serve the customer end to end. And also the technology we have allows us basically to produce on the same platform, so kind of a single system -- file system for all of that. So these are some of the main services. Actually, we also have some supply chain engineering that we we can do as well add some value and some 5PL capacity, but these activities are a little bit sort of smaller. So now I have said a lot, and it's time for you, Michael, to go through some of the numbers and other stuff in detail. So please have a go ahead.

Michael Ebbe

executive
#3

Thanks a lot, Jens, and I will immediately skip to the next slide here with an overview of our P&L for the first 9 months of 2020. A couple of highlights on that slide that I would like to elaborate a little bit on. Of course, you can see that the revenue has actually increased 10.5% as a consequence of the rate environment and also to a certain extent, the activity level. that also have an impact on net working capital, which I'll come back to in a second. And Jens, you already touched upon the EBIT growth, which is also nice to see, but also if you look at profit for the period has actually increased DKK 900 million compared to same quarter last year, which is also good to see. And also the conversion ratio for the -- I think that's also worth highlighting that we have increased from 27.9% to 32.6%, driven by all the initiatives and the synergies that we have worked on. So it's also nice to see that. And of course, the net interest cost is higher than last year due to the fact that now we have, you can say, the full financing of the Schenker acquisition included for the the period, which we did not have last year, obviously. And then, Jens, you already touched a little bit on it, but the EPS, now we actually can see that we are growing on a 12-month rolling our apps has increased 11.5% compared to the same period last year, and that's for many, this is what it is about. Then I will go to the cash flow statement that we have also a little bit highlights on that one, starting out with the adjusted free cash flow, which amounted to DKK 6.4 billion in look at the cash conversion ratio. I promise that, that will continue. But of course, it's nice to see that we can collect some money here with the cash converge ratio of more than 12%. Net working capital slightly increased due to the freight rates. If you look at the ratio a little bit further down on the slide, you will see that the ratio is actually better than it was same, you can say, at the end of last quarter. So we are grinding our way through it. We promised to reduce the net working capital. But of course, if we get more activity and hits, that will have an impact, clearly. I also would like to highlight that we have actually on the gearing ratio, it's now 2.46 actually. Now we can only have 1 digit here, but it's 2.56%. So during the quarter, since last quarter, we've actually reduced with 0.2% on the gearing ratio. And also worth mentioning is that since we started the integration, we have reduced net interest-bearing debt with DKK 12.6 billion as well. So all in all, I think it's a -- it's nice to see these kind of numbers. Of course, we would like to have them even better, but it's positive. The cash flow and the current state of our financial situation has also led to the fact that we have started a -- launched a share buyback this morning of DKK 1.5 billion. It's good to be back on that. I know that people are saying that we are still 2.5 on gearing ratio. But I would like to highlight that we have the journey, the path that we are on where we have decreased our gearing ratio for the last couple of quarters. It's a positive trajectory that we are on. We do stay committed to the capital allocation policy heading towards 2x in the gearing expectedly during 2027. Of course, the ambition is to do it in the first half of 2027, but that is our aim. The reason also being for this start-up the share buyback is that we have an obligation to towards our share option program, and we have to buy back shares to be able to deliver on those obligations. So that means that we have now -- you can see on the slide here that in 2025, there was not much share buyback. So now we will see we have these columns again with the shareholder, hopefully. But we'd also like to highlight that this is like I've said also last quarter, we are now in a position where every quarter assessed according to our capital allocation policy. So that we have started it's not necessarily -- you can say that we will continue that journey. But of course, we expect that we will have solid cash flow going forward as well. Then Jens you already touched upon the next slide here on the guidance where we have narrowed the outlook to between DKK 24 billion and DKK 25 billion giving a slightly delay due to the Road integration also have a spillover impact on the special items. We are slightly delayed on those as well. So that is the overall number. And some of the assumptions, of course, we have some synergies that we have already realized last year and then on top this year, DKK 4 billion more and then we have the additional DKK 1 billion that we postponed into the next year. It's still a volatile world that we live in. It's highly uncertain about the you can say, the macro environments and interest rates and so forth. So that's, of course, also worth to bear in mind. In terms of Air & Sea and volume for the last quarter, we assume volume growth to be slightly below the market in Air & Sea and also yield slightly below what we have in Q4. Our aim is still to deliver on GP growth. That's very important to bear in mind here. And for the Road, I think you touched upon it as well already. And contract logistics, we also expect to continue the growth that we have seen so far. And of course, the tax rate will remain as '28 is still impacted by this integration that we have, and then we will be able to come back to a more normal tax rate later on. And Back to you, Jens, for the key takeaways.

Jens Lund

executive
#4

Yes. Thank you very much, Michael. Just want to reiterate that Road operations are normalized. So we basically now can focus on the commercial activities that we are having. And of course, we can also then focus on driving the productivity up as well. So these are the 2 key topics for the Road division and for DSV also very important. And then, of course, the guidance we talked about that. And then the share buyback program that we've launched as well. So I think we have confidence in what we are doing. So with that said, I think we should move on to the Q&A session. And then we can spend some time answering those. Please go ahead.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Jamie Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank.

Jaime Rowbotham

analyst
#6

I was just after a few numbers, please. So in Air & Sea, how much of the 3% volume decline is deliberate revenue dissynergies or sanitizing the portfolio versus the SME activity levels declining in the Asia to Europe weakness? And in Road, could you quantify the amount of synergy shift to 27, the amount of customer volume losses you've been seeing and the likely amount of gains on property disposals for next year for 2027?

Jens Lund

executive
#7

That was a little bit more than 1 question the way I count it, but we will try to answer them anyway. I think on airfreight, if we look at the development over the quarter, we actually saw the largest decline in July. And that's then more related to attrition. I would say, it's been more around the situation in August and September. So -- and that was basically what can I say, tapering off of this situation. So I should say I would probably say that 10 percentage points based on this sort of conversation that just having here would be the remaining part of the sanitizing and then now we are hovering about the 0% to 1% decline of business in the air freight right now. So that would be the answer to that one. I think on the Road side, we do see that it -- what can I say, takes some time to to regain that volume it will happen during next year. But also to realize the synergies will take a little bit extra time. So approximately in the neighborhood of DKK 1 billion will be pushed into next year because not only Road is impacted also the back office functions have to support that journey, what can I say, we'll have to keep extra resources as long as it's not completed the integration. Then when we look at the volume decline, we've probably seen a volume decline just shy of a 2-digit figure on the Group side in Road. So it is something. When it comes to the properties then we don't necessarily plan for any gains. But as you can see, there has been some this year as well, but we have none in the forecast.

Operator

operator
#8

And the next question comes from Patrick Creuset from Goldman Sachs.

Patrick Creuset

analyst
#9

In Road normally, seasonality in Q3 heavily skewed to September, I think. And would it therefore be fair to assume that most of the underlying DKK 300 million profit in Q3 enrolled was made in September. And therefore, when we're trying to look at an exit rate from the quarter to have an exit rate per month of somewhere north of DKK 200 million EBIT. Would that be a fair way of looking at? Then I don't know if it counts the second question, but Michael, if you could just clarify your comments on Q4 R&C yields, which I didn't fully get?

Jens Lund

executive
#10

I think I'll answer the Road, Michael. You can answer the Air & Sea. I think normally, on the Road side, we are, of course, always a little bit impacted by the summer holidays in July and August, you have a lot of fixed cost. So you're quite right that the result produced on the roll side is basically then produced in September. Now we get good months as well, October and November. And we've also regained a little bit of volume. So that should also help the figures a little bit there. And then December is going to be a week. And so if I should model it, I would probably add, if you take the clean figure that we talk about the DKK 300 million that you also had mentioned, I would see a slight improvement in the next quarter, but not a lot based on this. where we had because the sales cycle is 3 months. So let's say, we've had quality issues before the summer holidays, the customers, they come back from vacation on the first of September. We are now convinced it's good, then we start selling in September then the first impact of these sales efforts the reality going to come maybe in December, but also in January, if you look at that kind of math. So it will take some time to fill the network up, but it's a strong network we have. So we get the sales calls. And we can see from the pipeline and the work that is being done that it does pay off. And then for you, Michael.

Michael Ebbe

executive
#11

Thank you, Patrick. What you have to bear in mind here is the normal seasonality on the yield side, which we do see on the Sea side. And then also, we have had congestion, which is being a little bit lower and [indiscernible] is slowly opening up again, and that will will have an impact on the yields compared to Q3. And on the Air side, that might be less downside in Air also what Jens spoke about. We have the big season and also, of course, tight capacity. So that is kind of some of the underlying assumptions to the thing that we also have written here in the outlook.

Operator

operator
#12

And the next question comes from Alex Irving from Benin.

Alexander Irving

analyst
#13

On well. I'd like to talk about the move from cargo-wise to Tango, please, in Air and C, to understand that's a little better. out on the current sea volume is currently flowing through each of those systems, especially I noticed that other external expenses in that division rose by DKK 100 million quarter-on-quarter from Q2 in Q3, shouldn't they be falling as you move your own IT infrastructure? Or how else can you explain this, please?

Jens Lund

executive
#14

I think today, we proximately produce in the region 20% to 25% of the volumes on Tango. It's predominantly the larger clients that we have on that platform, so the more complex ones. We've not started the move of any rollout yet. I think we've not indicated that to the market either than rollout [indiscernible]. So we've said that we would want to improve Tango and it will also coexist with cargo wise for quite a while, so that we derisk what can I say, the rollout and the 2 systems they coexist today. So that's basically what I can say on that. Then, of course, if you look at the cost, I think it's what can I say, a development where we've seen the Air & Sea division being a little bit underallocated beforehand in the center times. And now we've changed the allocation model to the DSV allocation model, and this is basically what impacts the figures. It can also be that now we've shifted a little bit more volume on to CargoWise and as you know, that comes also with what can I say, a very solid cost per transaction. So that impacts it a little bit.

Operator

operator
#15

And the next question comes from Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America.

Muneeba Kayani

analyst
#16

On Road, I just wanted to clarify your comment earlier, Jens, and that 1/3 of the impact was additional costs and 2/3 related to volumes. So is that from kind of a DKK 1 billion normal? And does that mean it's about DKK 300 million of -- can you help quantify what was the additional cost? Was it DKK 300 million and that now totally gone away as we think about the 4Q performance? And then into next year the synergies, what is the impact on synergies that you were expecting earlier versus now if that's the DKK 4 billion would have been the full EBIT bridge for '27? And what has it come down to now if it's a mid-27 full run rate impact?

Jens Lund

executive
#17

I don't think we guide in full for '27 right now. That will come a little bit later, but I can try to help you with some information so that you can perhaps do some work. So I would say, if you look at the quarter in particular, July was still impacted by a lot of express deliveries. Of course, when we got it cleaned up, there was still in August, certain terminals that were not in what we call green. This is when you are about 92%. So you also had additional cost in August and also some in September, but of course, very little. And now it's totally gone. There is no extra, what can I say, cost because of bad quality. So we would estimate that this number would probably be between DKK 200 million and DKK 300 million. If you then look at a quarter like this quarter, I would think that under normal circumstances, we should have made DKK 1 billion where we were. Then I think all the numbers they add up if you strip out what can I say, the property in this calculation. Then of course, going into next year, now we to have all this focus basically on the quality. Then, of course, all the productivity initiatives, they have been slowed down. because the first thing you want to make sure is you have your delivery quality in place so that you have solid quality. So there are 2 tracks now. Now we drive productivity, so what does it cost to produce a shipment and of course, we need more volume into the system. And these 2 things, they will be the main focus for next year. But I'd say, to drive the productivity up, it's something that happens quarter-on-quarter. It's a lot of activities. So what was my collection delivery cost, much more productivity on the terminals what's the utilization of the line hauls, et cetera. So these things you're working on with a very structured plan, it's the same team that solved the default that works with this. So quite certain that they will be able also to deliver on those tasks. And then on the commercial side, as I said, it takes some time for the sales cycle, and I would probably presume that it takes to regain the volume that we've lost, it will probably take 6 to 9 months into next year before we are at the same level as we were before we saw the attrition. So it will take some time, but we will grind our way to it. So basically, you can look at the Road integration in a way. I would say as if you've almost lost a year because now we start selling and it can be that only at this time next year, we will be at the same place as we had originally planned for. So that should be the building blocks for your model.

Michael Ebbe

executive
#18

I think it's important to also, like you said, Jens, it's important to say that there's no changes in our commitment in terms of the plans and on delivery of the synergies. But as you rightfully stated, it's been delayed a little bit. But the overall thing that we plan for is still going to happen and take place.

Operator

operator
#19

Then the next question comes from James Hollins from BNB Pariba.

James Hollins

analyst
#20

Just a couple of clarifications. I think, Jens, I appreciate your color on the Road customer losses. If we go back to Michaels pre-close call, there seems to be a suggestion that there may have been some bleed of customers and the losses elsewhere in the group outside of Road. And I think Jens you're saying today that didn't happen, perhaps you could clarify that for me?

Jens Lund

executive
#21

I'm not really sure what exactly you're referring to. If we look at bleeder customers, the area where we normally would look at bleeder customers would be on contract logistics where you would have, what can I say, activities in warehouses that you operate that basically operates what can I say, at a very low margin and sometimes even at a minus margin. So this is basically also what we described on the CL side where we say all this loss-making business, all these things that are not delivering the returns that we require, we basically -- this volume we're basically terminating now. So I think that's typically where we have that topic. And that's been part of the CL improvement that you take a business out that maybe loses money or has very low margin and then you replace it with business that operates at a normal margin. This is, in reality, what you can see in the CL figures and look at what an impact it has.

Operator

operator
#22

And the next question comes from Jacob Lacks from Wolfe Research.

Jacob Lacks

analyst
#23

So on Air & Sea, when do you think the division can get back to market growth rates on volume now that we're largely through the integration?

Jens Lund

executive
#24

We're growing GP already. I think this is very important to state that we do that. This is the most important metric. Then of course, the growth in EP at the end of the day, it comes from 2 things. It comes from volume and yield. So I think we've finished anirtizing, what can I say, business. If you look at the yield uplift, it's been tremendous during the last year on the Air & Sea side. So that's a job well done. On the volume side, we are hovering around what can I say, it's basically plateauing now. So we've come out of the trough, and we're basically at the inflection point. And whether that will then be in Q4 as part of the normal tender season into Q1, I can't tell you. because we will have to see how it all pans out, but this is basically how I would model it. So if you're a little bit conservative model it into next year and if you're more positive, you can maybe think about a slight increase this year.

Operator

operator
#25

Then the next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS.

Cristian Nedelcu

analyst
#26

And apologies to come back to some of these points, but I think most of us in terms of synergies next year have around DKK 5 billion year-over-year incremental for out of Schenker and 1 of the other ones. And it's not fully clear to me should we -- roughly how much do we take out of Schenker? We take DKK 1 billion out align with the special items that you moved or more or less? And any type of color you could give us there? The second one, the bear argument on Road if you exclude the Express cost that you've explained earlier, your run rate is somewhere around DKK 500 million clean EBIT per quarter. If I annualize that, I get to DKK 2 billion. If I don't get too much synergies next year, I could be at DKK 2.5 billion EBIT next year or 3. Am I missing anything, any moving parts from this bridge? And probably just a short time, you mentioned encase conversion ratio of 50%, the target. Do you believe in some of the quarters next year, you can already be at 50% conversion in Air & Sea or that's something more for 2028, '29?

Jens Lund

executive
#27

If we take the conversion ratio on Air & Sea first, I think it's -- if you look at how it's been sort of increasing, then there is also, can I say, plans for productivity improvements into next year. Whether we will hit the 50% mark -- I mean at the end of the day, we have a long-term 2030 target of DKK 55 million. Sso we will have, what can I say, to drive it past the 50% -- and if we've not finished the rolling forecast in that detail and are 100% turnout it will go towards the 50%, I can tell you that. Then I think on the Road side, you talk about that can I say, the impact of what we're doing. I think basically, if you look at these 2 things that are outstanding, you will have the operational basically improvements that we need to make. So that's kind of like 1 track. And then belly also on the commercial side, what is the impact of the volumes that we are missing. I think if we look into that then to get an impact out of those 2 initiatives of 50 on top of what we have this year. That would be a bare argument I would agree to that, as you said, that's the bare argument I think just as we fix default, we can definitely improve the operational efficiency. And if I look at the impact on the sales side, I also said we can get the volume back into the system. Then if you try to model that, I'm quite sure that using those assumptions, you will probably end somewhere else under 2.5, but that's, of course, how you run your model that determines that. So yes.

Michael Ebbe

executive
#28

And then just to clarify, if needed on the synergies, I think we've stated that we will -- last year, we had a full year run rate of DKK 800 million. Then we have said that during this year, we expect at least DKK 4 billion. Now we say DKK 4 billion and the remaining part would then come into 2027 as from January 1. Now we say we delete it with DKK 1 billion. So that will, of course, come in later during the year in 2027.

Operator

operator
#29

And the next question comes from Alexia Dogani from JPMorgan.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#30

Just again on synergies and you mentioned in the statement that you're committed to the DKK 9 billion of synergies, but there is an offset -- partly offset by cost inflation and investment in contract logistics. Could you just clarify the kind of magnitude of offset that you see? And then I'm sorry to also, again, clarify on the financial impact in '27, at the CMD, you hopefully gave a slide, Slide 136, given kind of the phasing. Obviously, now there is a delay. Are we basically saying the delays DKK 1 billion to DKK 1 billion moves from '27 to '28? Or is it a DKK 1 billion realization '27 and the remainder is in '28. I think that would help everyone make sure their model is aligned with your plan.

Michael Ebbe

executive
#31

If I start with the last 1 first, the DKK 1 billion, which is delayed, that is, of course, have fully impact from 2028, but we do expect that we will start, you can say earlier, but the full run rate would be in 2028. That is clear for the DKK 1 billion. Was that -- the answer -- was there another one, sorry?

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#32

Yes, it was the net effect, basically, you've added a statement that said -- but there is an offset, what is the offset?

Michael Ebbe

executive
#33

Yes, yes. If you look at contract logistics for start, then you'd see that they have increased the EBIT of 50%, right? And they've also had a staff cost which is higher. So you can look at that and then say, this is what we do see. So the expected synergies in the beginning when we made the plan from CL, we have taken them out because the CL has grown the business. So that will take that 1 now. And if you look at -- I think it's -- the run rate is DKK 100 million on staff costs alone for this quarter. Secondly, that we do see inflation also on the other elements of the cost base. And if you, for instance, take 3% into that, I think then you have the building blocks to do it.

Alexia Dogani

analyst
#34

Okay. And just to clarify 1 last point. Air & Sea and Contract Logistics at the end will have delivered your plan in terms of the financial impact. Is that right for the synergies?

Michael Ebbe

executive
#35

Yes, you can assume that.

Operator

operator
#36

The next question comes from Marco Limite from Barclays.

Marco Limite

analyst
#37

I've got a follow-up on the synergy figures because we're saying that in '26, you guys are still planning to achieve DKK 4 billion synergies, so guidance isn't changed. Road is clearly lagging already in '26. So how are you going to get to DKK 4 billion despite Road being below. Does that imply Air & Sea and CL ahead of the plan? Or how do we get the DKK 4 billion weaker Road? And then still related to that, I think this quarter is the first quarter where your total FTE number is not coming down quarter-on-quarter. I understand contract logistics up. Nice to see organic growth is good, why FTE is not coming down in Air & Sea, for instance. And therefore, yes, that number basically not coming down anymore in Air & Sea?

Michael Ebbe

executive
#38

If you look at it from a total level, then you would see that we have reduced the number of 50s with around 800 during the quarter, so white collar. So I think that at least what you need to look into. Then of course, there is -- if you look at the Air & Sea, we also explained a little bit about the global products. During the quarter, we have also had a -- you could say, a move for some of those into that area.

Marco Limite

analyst
#39

Okay. And on the DKK 4 billion [indiscernible] Road being quite weaker than expected at the start of the year?

Jens Lund

executive
#40

So the DKK 4 billion figure that was in there in the guidance was probably a little bit, what can I say, on the low side. Now you can see it's more air credit might be that we say approximately DKK 4 billion. So let's say that it might be a little bit less which could also be the case because as you say, that the Road has been delayed slightly. So I think we then decided to keep, what can I say, the same number instead of, let's say, writing 3.750 or whatever the number could be. So that's really how we've come to the guidance.

Operator

operator
#41

And the next question comes from Lars Heindorf from Nordea.

Lars Heindorff

analyst
#42

On the Road division, to get back to that, I understand that you appears quite confident of getting -- regaining some of that volume that you lost. But I mean, hey, this is a fairly fiercely competitive market that you're operating in. I mean will you be able to regain that volume without any kind of impact on your GP per consignments, i.e., price or maybe paint terms, which will impact the cash flow? Yes, maybe just a few comments on what exactly the path back to getting those and regaining those volumes? And then as a follow-up on that also, I mean, the customer consignments as we enter into Q4, where is that compared to what you wanted to be?

Jens Lund

executive
#43

If we look at basically regaining the volumes our sales activities, the pipeline that we have, it's basically how we normally would conduct business within the various segments. So I should say that -- that is not like we go out, what can I say is with terms and conditions that are materially different because then it has what can I say, a longer-term impact. So we really have to go out and basically increase your sales activities, then that would normally lead to a certain conversion of your pipeline. So that would be that topic. If you look at the production cost, at least what we have planned for in our rolling forecast is that we should be able to lower our product cost between 5% and 10% on what we have. due to inefficiencies and networks. So it can be on collection delivery. It can be also, what can I say, the activities in the terminal. And then 1 of the major topics is also our line haul setup where we can drive the efficiency somewhat up so that we can deliver on those outcomes -- so let's say, on the line haul, for example, I would believe that the average utilization we have is maybe around index 90 and we should definitely be able to drive that, let's say, 5% of if you look at that and can be all the topics that we talk about so the number of stops per route, et cetera. So under connection delivery bit. So I would say these plants, they are all, what can I say, committed by the team, as I said, that solved the default, and they are now working actively on this, and we can already see some of the first things being executed. So I'm quite confident in that.

Lars Heindorff

analyst
#44

Can I just as a follow-up, maybe on the cost side in Road, there's a sequential decline in staff costs into the third quarter, which is, I think, is that just caused by a normal seasonality. I mean, it tends to be lower in Q3 on to the holiday season. And we should expect the staff cost to increase it came into the fourth quarter?

Jens Lund

executive
#45

Basically, I'm not 100% certain on that because the holiday accrual makes it very difficult to us to to be 100%. So I would more want the team to get back to you on that because -- but we take people out as part of realizing the synergies. I can tell you that on the FTE side. So we continue that journey now on Road. But how the holiday accruals have sort of impacted Q3, it has a significant impact on it. So I would not want you to make a mistake in your model. So please reach out to the team, then they will be able to give the exact number.

Operator

operator
#46

And the next question comes from Kristian Godiksen from SEB.

Kristian Godiksen

analyst
#47

Yes. Also a question on the Road part. So obviously, there's quite a big of a delta to the DKK 2.5 billion for the Road EBIT in '27, which was a Cristian's question. And then to your own DKK 6 billion that you communicated on the back of the Q2 numbers, I guess, as you pointed out, I guess, the main moving part is the trajectory on winning back volumes. So I just wanted to get feel on how comfortable you are in winning back the volume and at what potential discount in pricing discount to win that back volume just, I guess, on the basis on the operating leverage being very high in the group part of the business, which I guess based on the underlying numbers for Q3 must have been making [indiscernible] business has been marginally less impacted?

Jens Lund

executive
#48

Yes. I think I've said it a couple of times now. What you do when you do sales is that basically, you want to have, what can I say, the basically, the visits you want to have the appointments with the customers, we can get those appointments so that we get the meetings. Then what we do when we speak to the customers, we can now explain them how the quality is. The quality is very high in the network. So we have a very good product. It's the strongest network in Europe. So in the market, for example, like Germany, we have less than 5% of the market. So of course, there's a lot of volume you can go after. That we are not in contact with. Then there's the existing customers that maybe have down traded a little bit with us, they can now see the quality is back. And then, of course, there's the customers that have a Swiss provider. We can see that on the segmentation of the larger customers, they have stayed with us. So all the complex volume they stay with us. So it tells us something about the quality of the network and the service that we provide. It is more, let's kind of say, smaller customers that perhaps can operate in 1 or 2 markets that has a great opportunity to choose another provider. So of course, this is a focus area for us that we now go and see those customers in those markets and make sure that we basically deliver on them. Then the sales cycle I explained it takes 3 months. But then you followed in the pipeline, how it's going, and you see the conversion on it and then also some of these things, they lead to IT integration so that we need to be ready to exchange data. with the customers in a digital format in an efficient way. So that's in reality sort of how we're doing. And when I speak to the team, I see a lot of energy, a lot of activity in the pipelines and all these things. So yes, I think that we have the right product. And yes, I think that we can deliver basically on regaining the volume. I think that's what we're all working on.

Kristian Godiksen

analyst
#49

So just a follow-up on that, I guess. So to your DKK 6 billion, if I wanted to make a bridge for that for next year. I guess it's the loss of volume in terms of the sales cycle on that and then the delay of synergies, that's basically the 2 parts I need to deduct from the DKK 6 billion number. Is that the right way to think about it?

Jens Lund

executive
#50

Yes, I would do it like this, I would say, listen, there's some less volume going in and then basically, the GP is a little bit too low in the beginning and maybe also a little bit on the conversion because, of course, we've been delayed in harvesting the synergies. But there's types of synergies and Road, you have to remember that. It is basically that we then merge the networks close down the terminals and take out the overlap. We already very advanced on that. But of course, that has been slowed down due to the quality issues that we've had. We are now -- I can just tell you to give a bit of confidence -- we've got live in Poland, merged to 2 networks, for example, down a big networks. There's been no issue at all. We've merged some of the big terminals in the network. And I think we've solved all those things. we were approximately 450 terms when we were 2 companies. And of course, we have to go down now to 280 right now. So I think we are current now right now somewhat over 300. So we've definitely done a lot of the work. And I think we've taken learnings from the things we have done and make sure that we don't see quality issues.

Kristian Godiksen

analyst
#51

Perfect. And just maybe on the incremental mine, just to when I model the volume part. Is it fair to assume that an incremental EBIT margin would be around 50% for the group each part of the business due to the operating leverage?

Jens Lund

executive
#52

That depends a little bit where you stand right now, of course, if you lack volume in the system, it's very high the margin, but of course, over time, that will ease out. But I would say that additional volume in a group's network definitely drives a superior conversion compared to what you are used to see. Yes.

Operator

operator
#53

And the next question comes from Ulrik Bak from Danske Bank.

Ulrik Bak

analyst
#54

So in terms of the targets that you presented at your capital markets say, of another DKK 9 billion in savings from IT and network optimization. How should we think about that given your comments about cost inflation partially offsetting the Schenker cost synergies and the delayed integration of road. Should we also subtract cost inflation here? And how much should these targets be delayed?

Jens Lund

executive
#55

I think we're still shoot for completing what we need to do in 2030. So I would say that, that's definitely still the aspiration. I think if we look at now completing the change, what can I say, integration until next year, we should be, what can I say delivering, what kind of a solid number. that we then can build on with what can I say, the DKK 9 billion that we are talking about. We will already start some of the initiatives next year and we are in POC in many of them, and we will then drive the productivity up. Then, of course, you're quite right. Over time, we should see a little bit less cost inflation. We have actually seen quite a bit going in to the Schenker transaction. And normally, we should try to offset some of that with productivity gains. So I would really not want to now dilute the target of DKK 9 billion. So that's kind of the feedback you can get on that front.

Operator

operator
#56

The next question comes from Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley.

Cedar Ekblom

analyst
#57

Just 2 quick questions from me. So it seems that the recovery of profitability in the Road business is now very dependent on these customer wins, getting the volumes back with those expressed costs the system. I appreciate that you're talking about a sales cycle of sort of 3 months and needing to 9 months to sort of fully recover those volumes. So I get it takes time. But is there anything that you can give us in terms of how those sales conversations are going now to help us understand how that sort of minus 9%, high single-digit volume decline is tracking as we move into January? I know that, that won't help your Q4 volumes, but it would be good to just get a little bit of color on what those conversations sound like. And then can you just talk about year-on-year progression or lack of progression in your seafreight GP yield. You talk about 1/3 being rate, 2/3 being value add. Rates are higher year-over-year, and that yield number hasn't really moved. So just a bit of color for what's going on in the underlying mix maybe would be helpful.

Jens Lund

executive
#58

Yes. I think very good questions on that. What we look about ourselves is, of course, the you have different things you look at when you look at sales. The first thing is the NPS. So what's the customer perception of us. The NPS has bottomed doubt, and it's increasing. Just want to make sure there was a spillover concern also on the NPS, whether it had impacted our CL and Air & Sea business. I would say, they're more or less stayed the same, slightly down. So I would say not really an impact. On the Road side, of course, NPS has been declining quite a bit. So now it's trough. It's coming up again, and we don't see any escalations from the customer. So I would say, on the customer satisfaction, we are now coming back again towards the normal levels. This is the first thing. The next thing you want to do is you want to have leads and you want to have sales calls. So right now, we can say that the number of sales calls is 2 to 3x up on what we normally do. So we have much more commercial activity when we go and be the customers. Then this normally feeds into a pipeline where you have different stages of the conversation. And then, of course, the closer you get to a contract, what can I say, the more value it has in the pipeline. So we can see that the pipeline now is much more solid than it's been before. So also that is going well. Then, of course, at the end of the day, you want to do an IT integration and you want to get the volume in and see what is the actual volume that we get based on those efforts here. And that's sort of the KPIs that we are following. And as I said, we are 2 to 3x of depending on which number of countries it is that we have on visits. I would also say that the pipeline is definitely showing that we have the largest pipeline that we've had since we acquired Schenker, the value of it, the qualified value of the pipeline. So yes, that would normally then convert into volume that you can see into the figures. This is how we steer if you look at under the hood. Then I think on the ocean freight, I think that you basically we had 4,100 in the same quarter last year. Now we have also 4,100, I believe, this quarter. What we monitor is basically the best and basically the freight markup. And right now, it might be -- normally, we say 1/3 freight markup and 2/3 VAS. It might be that the freight markup is 35% or 36% but it's in this ballpark that we're talking about. It, of course, means a lot of money when you run the 4,000 mark there. So I would say that we still see now the rates are fairly elevated. And I think they're definitely going to also provide for a good yield in the fourth quarter. We will then see what happens in the market. There's been so many speculations about the rates coming off and I think the carriers have done an exceptionally good job at keeping them elevated. So I think that's what I can say right now on the rates.

Cedar Ekblom

analyst
#59

Sorry, just to come back on your point on like the customer point. All of those qualitative comments are very helpful. Is there any way to put quantitative metrics around because I think that that's really the key to recovering profitability like the best pipeline since we closed China, I mean that's good to hear. But I don't know what that actually means in quantum and like 2 to 3x more customer sort of leads, et cetera. Like is there any way to think about what volumes do in Q1? Or is it just way too early to answer that question. Sorry to...

Jens Lund

executive
#60

Yes. But let's say, we had index. I'll try to make it just in some index numbers. Let's say, we had index 100 in volumes. Now we have index 92. This is well -- then that's not going to -- it might be that, that will go to Index 93 or if we are locking 93.5% in Q4. And then the rest will have to be recovered in 2 to 3 quarters. This is what the value of all the words that are seen. Does that make sense?

Operator

operator
#61

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today's Q&A. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Group CEO, Jens Lund, for any closing remarks.

Jens Lund

executive
#62

Thank you very much all for listening in. I think that we've had a good conversation about some of the important topics and good questions as well. So thank you very much for that. We will now focus on delivering the results for the fourth quarter. And in relation to that, I will really also to extend gratitude to our staff, have worked exceptionally hard in a very difficult period, not least in the Road division. So really well done to them. And I'm quite sure that the whole team is very eager to deliver the outcome that we all look for in Q4. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

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