DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 12, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Michael Graham
analystAll right. Good morning, all. Welcome to Day 2 of the Canaccord Growth Conference. Thank you all for joining. I'm Michael Graham, Internet Analyst here at the firm. Very, very excited to have Jason Robins, the Co-Founder and CEO of DraftKings here with us. Jason, thank you. DraftKings has been just a juggernaut of a company here since it's been public over the last year or so. Jason, I was looking back at our initial -- initiation report from May of last year, and at that time, our revenue estimate for this year, for 2021, was $680 million. And you were live in 8 states for OSB, and you had $600 million in cash on your balance sheet from your -- at that time, Pioneering's pack transaction. Now here we are just over a year later, our revenue estimate for this year has more than doubled to $1.3 billion after a good quarter. You're live in 12 states and you have $2.6 billion in cash. So pretty awesome first year as a public company. You just reported Q2 a few days ago. So to get started, can you recap the highlights of the quarter for us?
Jason Robins
executiveYes. Thank you. It's hard to believe that was only a little over a year ago, and I appreciate you guys staying on top of us and all the great work that you guys do. Last quarter was a great quarter for us. Obviously, in Q2 of last year, we were all still sort of reeling from the initial days, the pandemic. Sports were mostly not being played. There are a couple that started to come back, UFC, PGA TOUR towards the end of the quarter. But most of the other major U.S. sports were not being played. There was a time where pingpong was our most popular betting sport and Korean Baseball was our most popular daily fantasy sport. So a lot's changed in the year. Fast forward a year later, we had record numbers across the board. Obviously, tough to compare to that prior period I just described, but growth of almost 300% year-over-year. We also have seen no slowdown since the pandemic has started to subside, although I understand it's a fluid situation, but a lot of things reopened in Q2. And we were cautiously watching to see if that caused any slowdown. Hard to disentangle last year and really know how much stay-at-home nature of pandemic affected us in a tailwind way. And so we are keeping an eye on it and trying to figure out, is it just momentum that we're seeing that the industry is seeing or is there some effect that we're going to see adversely from the reopening. And so far, it's been the complete opposite. The numbers have continued to be really strong. The growth and momentum has not slowed down. July is typically -- and Q3 has started off in a great way, too. July is typically our slot acquisition month of the year, customer acquisition month of the year, and we had a top 10 ever day in July this past -- a month ago. So really excited for the start of NFL coming up, and I'll know a lot more in the first week or two, but we're cautiously optimistic that we're going to have another big year -- big season.
Michael Graham
analystThat's awesome. And as we get into questions here, I just mentioned to the audience, if you do have a question you'd like me to ask Jason, just please put it into the, into the chat function there, and I'll do my best to get to those. I already see a list of questions building there. So just another sort of topical thing, Jason, is you just announced a couple of days ago, the $1.6 billion acquisition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming, designed to bring its brand and iGaming product experience, also to have an existing database, I guess, of over 5 million customers. It sounds like a pretty exciting move, but can you just sort of recap that for us and the rationale behind it?
Jason Robins
executiveAbsolutely. So this really starts a few years back when shortly after launching Sports Betting Online in New Jersey, about 4 months later, we launched our iGaming product. And initially, it was just an embed in the Sportsbook. People could in the Sportsbook app play games like Blackjack and Slots. After a little while, we realized that while the cross-sell was phenomenal, we want to try to reach the customer that was not coming in through a Sportsbook app that wanted to just play iGaming, wanted to come in to an online casino at first. So in May of last year, we launched our standalone casino app, our casino-first half, I should say. There is some sports cross-selling there, but it's really designed for the casino player. And it's been doing okay, but we haven't seen necessarily the penetration into that audience that we were hoping for. We did some market research. We also spoke with our product team, our marketing team to get their perspective. We really did a lot of work to understand why. And the conclusion that we came to was that DraftKings is really a sports brand, and for the right customers, the ones that are into sports, we were doing a great job of being able to get them on the platform, cross-sell them into iGaming. We got top 1, 2 or 3 position in every market that we're in for iGaming, based on only -- almost primarily almost entirely cross-sell, I should say. But we were missing a good chunk of the audience. We estimate about 70% of the audience is not coming on to DraftKings, and we really did some work to understand why and it came down to a brand issue. And so we thought about how do we approach that. Do we go and try to acquire something? Do we try to put a lot of money behind creating DraftKings brand image more in the casino vein, which obviously might have been very expensive, but also we thought could dilute the real power of the brand with the audience we are reaching. And we came to the conclusion that given there were a number of well-established casino brands out there, we should at least explore looking at the M&A route. So we scoured the market. We looked at different options. It was a mix of who do we think has a really strong brand and then also financial analysis, what companies do we think are good value for us. And then thirdly, the sort of intangibles, or I guess, the tangential things, I should say, such as the commercial deal that we're ultimately able to strike with Golden Nugget, brick-and-mortar, the Houston Rockets and Landry's. And all that kind of came together and really just the obvious choice for us was Golden Nugget Online Gaming. So through getting to know them, getting to know Tilman Fertitta, it just reaffirmed that this is the right partner for us, this is the right option for us. And over the course of a few months, we reached a great, we think, outcome between the M&A deal and the commercial deal. We feel very good about both of those, and we're really excited to hopefully close this in probably Q1 and then off to the races from there.
Michael Graham
analystThat's awesome. Just one layer deeper on sort of how you're thinking about maintaining both brands, harmonizing both brands, will all the gaming -- the iGaming facing stuff being rebranded, Golden Nugget or just any high-level thoughts there?
Jason Robins
executiveWe'll keep both brands, and we'll keep both products, Sports Betting and iGaming for both brands. But I think the way that we'll sort of emphasize them in the market and the brand strategy is to really position DraftKings as a sports-led brand with iGaming cross-sell and Golden Nugget an iGaming-led brand with sports cross-sell. And I think that will have some real efficiencies, both because of the brand positioning, but also because of some of the tech and marketing prowess and analytics it will bring. That will really allow us to supercharge some of the efforts the Golden Nugget's been deploying for many years. They're really a great company, incredible team. We've enjoyed getting to know them, but they don't necessarily have the same level of resources that DraftKings has when it comes to product, when it comes to engineering and technology, when it comes to marketing tech, when it comes to analytics, data science. All of those are things that we think we can plug their brand and what they're doing into our engine and really supercharge the products, supercharge the marketing efforts, and we think both of them will be great complements to each other.
Michael Graham
analystOkay. That will be exciting to watch here coming up starting in the beginning part of next year. And we're going to talk more about iGaming specifically later, but I wanted to move into the legalization trends a little bit. There's a lot going on. We mentioned the 12 states you're live in for OSB, but there are lots of states out there, which are sort of like on the brink, I would guess. As you think about the balance of the year, what are the states that you're most excited about in terms of possible adds to the business?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, there are several states that already passed legislation this year and are on their way to launching in the coming months. So we're very excited about all of them. If we -- I'm going to try to remember all of them, it's Arizona, so many so quickly. Arizona, Wyoming, Connecticut, Maryland, Louisiana and New York. So there is 6 states that we either have market access in or having an ability to get -- hopefully, to get a direct license in, which is amazing. It's going to increase the number of states we're in by 50% just on the basis of those that have legalized, and there is still several more that have pending legislation such as Massachusetts that we're hoping we'll move later this year. Connecticut also legalized iGaming along with online sports betting. So we're very excited about that, and we're hopeful that some of these states will get live right around or shortly after the start of NFL season.
Michael Graham
analystAs a Connecticut resident, I'm kind of excited on the one hand, but I'm probably going to lose a lot of money. So I'm not as excited as I should be, but that's going to work.
Jason Robins
executiveIt will be fun.
Michael Graham
analystAnd you have a guidance philosophy of not including any unlaunched states in your guidance, which then goes industry estimates. So I think it's interesting that you're going to have a lot of new eligible players sort of coming into the model that aren't reflected in estimates yet, to me, is exciting. What -- any layer of depth to go into about the New York RFA? Anything to talk about there that's interesting?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, New York is obviously a big state population-wise, and I think revenue opportunity wise, it will be the biggest state, if we're so fortunate to be selective. It will be in for online sports betting. And it's obviously a great sports town, too. So a lot to like about it. Our big consortium, we think is really strong. We're bidding alongside FanDuel and BetMGM, who collectively between the 3 of us, I think, have a great opportunity to generate a lot of tax revenue for New York. And we're very hopeful that our bid will get selected, and we'll be up and running in New York in short order.
Michael Graham
analystAnd then last one on this topic is just back in 2020 in California, there was a ballot initiative that kind of got close to the finish line and then didn't make it. Any thoughts about California for the 2022 sort of ballot season, November?
Jason Robins
executiveWe're exploring what we might want to do there. There is obviously a huge opportunity in California being the largest state in the country with almost 40 million residents. So big opportunity. If California were a country, it would have the fifth largest GDP, I believe, may have the next day. And I think that's right. I think we would have the fifth largest GDP in the world. So that just puts perspective around it. It's bigger than the U.K. and the U.K. is obviously a very large and established market. So real, real big potential there. And as you noted, it's about referendum state. So that's the route to go, and we're exploring different options, including hopefully partnering with the tribes to get something done there, but we're going to see how that plays out.
Michael Graham
analystOkay. Great. So let's shift into product a little bit. It's always interesting to me in the early days of some of these industries, and I think we're in early days here, that a lot of competitors, and it's not always clear to outside or sort of like what are the lines -- the critical lines of competition. And I think one of them for you think back to the search engine wars, like one of them for you, I think, is certainly product and just how engaging the product is. And so I just want to get your thoughts on your core OSB product. What is your philosophy around the key features or the critical service levels you need to kind of maintain your leadership? Is it UI? Is it loyalty programs? Is it the different bet types? Or just how do you think about that? And how do you track engagement so that you feel confident that you understand what you need to do on the product side?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, I think all of the above what you just said are very important. We talk about a few concepts, and we've been very vocal that we think the product and technology is the winning formula here. This is a customer that has very high LTV, the best products will not only retain them better, but will also generate incremental play and wallet share. And we don't believe it's wallet share from other competitors. It's their entire digital -- their entire entertainment wallet. So we think we're competing against going out to dinner and going to the movies every bit as much as we are against others that are in our direct industry. So really think it starts with that. A couple of the concepts we talk about. We talk about depth and breadth, having a deep product experience where users that want to bet on all sorts of types of sports and in-game bets and profit. They have everything they're looking for, so they have no reason to go elsewhere. The fastest way to lose a customer is they want to bet on something, you don't have it. So we learned that in the daily fantasy days, and it was an important lesson that we took into our approach to online Sportsbook. And then breadth having a wide variety of products. So we recently launched an NFT marketplace, which I think a lot of people were surprised that because it's not a traditional gaming product. And yesterday, it was the first day, and it was absolutely amazing. I mean the results blew away my expectations. We released several Tom Brady packs, and they sold out in minutes, and we have so much great feedback from customers. And I think that's an example of something that we think maybe isn't just about the revenue opportunity so maybe we think there's a big revenue opportunity there. But also, it's a great way to bring new customers on to the platform, a great way to get marketing efficiencies because what happens is, these athletes, they're getting a piece of the NFT purchase. And so they're out there promoting it on their social media feeds and driving people to our platform, which is a great way to enhance paid marketing efforts that we're doing and get a lot of organic traffic coming in as well. So we talked about having a broad array of products. So similar to the depth comment, if there's something that people want, we have it, and we have things that others don't have that will attract people and retain people better than our competition.
Michael Graham
analystI mean to hear to -- listen to you kind of talk about the NFT marketplace and some of the benefits to athletes that really strikes me that there's a whole sort of reengineering of the sports ecosystem to be in line with mobile and digital and crypto and millennial, and there is a lot of opportunity there for you to kind of use OSB as sort of a Trojan Horse in the industry. So that's going to be exciting to watch. Just on that, how do you think about segmenting your user base between super engaged players that might bet a lot and less engaged players that might not bet as much. How do you think about segmenting that experience to those different groups? And how do you manage that?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, there's a few elements to it. We definitely use segmentation, and we look at different ways to cut it by sport affinity. We cut it by frequency, by what types of products they're playing. But the other thing is, in today's world with data science and AI, you can get totally personalized. What used to be segment-based approaches have really evolved the top tech companies to personalized, individual level approaches, driven by data science and machine learning. And it was not possible many years ago because everything was done manually, and that's why segmentation was such a more common approach. But what we've tried to do is invest heavily in data science and machine learning so that each individual customer has a number of different variables and that the machines are constantly testing things and getting smarter, learning what to showcase, how to merchandise things, what time of day to send push notifications to people. All sorts of things are being driven by automated platforms that our data science engineers are building, and we're very excited about that. We think we're still at the early stages, but we also feel like we're pretty far ahead of a lot of our competition there because we've been investing in this for 5, 6 years now.
Michael Graham
analystJust on the sort of product technology front, you made a big and long awaited announcement last week that you have successfully migrated over to the SBTech platform. You said 11 or 12 states have been migrated. You're rolling out Same Game Parlays as an initial kind of product, I guess, on that platform. Just talk about that, some of the other benefits that this technology migration is going to offer you and maybe the pace of product innovation we should expect to see?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, very excited. It was the largest technology project we've ever undertaken. So really just so proud of the team, and I think a real testament to our product engineering team. I think they -- even though it's an all-consuming project, they still continue to roll out new states, launch new products, add features, all of those things while they were working on the migration. So I'm just so proud of them because I think a lot of teams might have said, look, this is all we can focus on right now, and we did other things as well. That said, it was a very all-consuming project of 15 months, took a ton of bandwidth. So I think we can expect to see an accelerated pace of innovation and new things now that we're past that. That took so much energy and so much bandwidth that now we can completely deploy to playing offense. And you mentioned Same Game Parlays. There were a few competitive gaps that we felt we had to fix. That was the biggest one by far. I think that really was the number -- it wasn't even close. It was the #1 thing our customers said, why don't you have it? We want it. So very excited. We've added that. And now we can really focus on playing offense and going after things that others don't have and hopefully, innovating faster than everybody else in the market.
Michael Graham
analystAny high-level thoughts -- I mean, your ARPU or the amount of betting activity from each player has been expanding quite a bit. And I think some of that comes from iGaming, but some of it come -- a lot of it comes from disengagement with the sports products. Just any thoughts on how much you think this new technology setup can impact engagement? And any thoughts about which sports might see the biggest impact from the SBTech migration?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, I think really all sports will see a big impact, particularly the U.S.-focused sports that I think didn't have as well-developed an offering on these third-party platforms because if you remember, the U.K. has obviously had online sports betting for decades now and lots of other parts of Europe have been the focus. So most of these platforms, whether it's a third-party B2B platform or whether it's the platforms like [ end pans ] or flutters that were built overseas, have been really focused on European sports, such as soccer and tennis. And the offering has been pretty good that we have for those through our partner, Kambi. But we feel like the U.S.-focused sports are still very much at the nascent stages of technology and product innovation, and so there is a lot to do there. And the other cool thing, I think, is that the U.S. sports, just by the nature of how they're structured, I think are even more right to innovate on in-game betting. For example, soccer, really doesn't have stoppages. And most of the big U.S. sports like NFL, baseball, et cetera, have clear stoppages in play, which give an opportunity for customers to make in-game bets in ways that maybe aren't as easy, I should say, in sports like soccer. So we think even though in-game betting is roughly 3/4 of online Sportsbook revenue in the U.K., it could potentially be even higher here over the long term. And it's all going to come down to product innovation and in-game is a big part of where we're focusing. Another thing we've been doing, which isn't necessarily enabled by our new Sportsbook -- our newly migrated to Sportsbook technology, but something that we feel is very important is working on social features. We started launching social features a couple of months ago. We've seen great engagement. We monitor daily active users using those features, and we've seen that rise continuously, and we're looking forward to really seeing that continue to rise over the coming years. And I think that just adds another level of stickiness, another level of engagement. It introduces people to new products and new bet types by their friends talking about them. So we're pretty excited about that as well.
Michael Graham
analystAwesome. I want to jump ahead. As I look at the clock here, I want to jump ahead to sort of marketing. And talk -- just talk about your philosophy on market. Your Investor Day earlier this year, you laid out a philosophy of spending heavily on player promotions in the early stages of launching in new state and then seeing that spend moderate over time. Does this imply that when you go into new states initially, some of that marketing spend can appear to an outsider to kind of be uneconomic? And just how do you kind of think about your philosophy around marketing as you enter new states?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, everything we do is based on data and everything we do is based on being economic. We have payback periods that we seek. And there's really 2 levels of unit here. There's the customer. You acquire a customer at a certain CAC and then they pay back in a certain period and generate a certain amount of LTV over the lifetime. And then there's the state where we invest early into a state. It takes generally 2 to 3 years before that new state is profitable. We've said, obviously, it will vary a little bit by state, but we think that will be right around the average for most states. And so far, that playbook has been working. We showed at our Investor Day that some of our earliest cohorts paid back actually faster than we were hoping for. So that was great. And then we've also seen our state that's been past that 2-year period, New Jersey in just its second full year, got to profitability, and we expect to kick off even more cash flow this year. So we think that, that's the right way to look at it. Everything is based on data, everything is economic. We're being cautious with our LTV models, knowing that this is an early industry and anyone saying, they're basing things on 4-, 5-year paybacks when you're 2, 3 years into an industry, is making some assumptions that we're not comfortable yet making. But as we get more and more data, we'll sharpen our models up, and I think it will make it that much more precise how we're able to optimize at a very deep and granular level, how we're making our marketing investments.
Michael Graham
analystI want to take a question from the audience. By far, the most popular one on here is about the Genius Sports announcement. So can you maybe just talk about that? What it means for you? And how it how it integrates with some of your other data kind of supply deals? Just maybe what the Genius Sports agreement does for you?
Jason Robins
executiveWell, we're very happy and very pleased with that agreement and with them as a partner. We have a lot of great data providers, Sport Radar, Genius Sports, others. And Genius obviously has the official NFL feeds that was important for us to get. And we were able to strike a deal that we are very happy with, and it is very consistent with what we've shared as our long-term margin projections. So I know a lot of people were worried that, that might end up being more expensive, and while we're not disclosing details, I will say that it was right in line with where we expected it to be and very consistent with the margin projections that we've shown for quite some time well before Genius did their NFL deal. We also got some other great things out of it, such as their betbuilder, the Same Game Parlays. I think contrary to what a lot of people may think, all the major companies use third parties or Same Game Parlays, we use betbuilder from Genius, so does MGM. FanDuel uses Swish Analytics. So really, a lot of what the power of having your own technology platform is, yes, you can create your own trading, you can put your own things in, but you can also choose what you integrate. It was not possible for us to integrate that into our product before because it's a back-end integration that would have had to have gone through Kambi. So I think similar to the iGaming world, it's going to be a mix of things that we create directly in third-party content and third-party technology. There is just such a long tail of bets and things and different sports that people want to make similar to iGaming, where there's a long tail of casino games that people want to play. And what we try to do is take the things that we think are differentiated and focus on doing those things, things that we couldn't get through third parties that we know our competition won't be able to have and really focus our resources there. And then overtime, we also focus on trying to take the things the largest revenue generators for us and bringing them in-house for cost savings purposes. So those are kind of the 2 different vectors that we work down. But I think really at the start, it's more about differentiating since it's a battle for market share, battle for new customers, for customer retention right now. So we think the value of having a differentiated product is really high, and we know we can optimize for the other things over the long term, and that's very similar to how we approach daily fantasy sports. There was a land grab in the beginning. Our margins weren't great, and then over time, we optimize them to be really high. And I think we're going to take a very similar approach in the online sports betting and iGaming markets.
Michael Graham
analystGreat. Jason Robins, thank you so much. We're going to leave it there. Can't thank you enough for being here. Congrats on all the success, and we'll talk to you soon.
Jason Robins
executiveThank you. Thanks for having me.
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