Prysmian S.p.A. (PRY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 30, 2026

BIT IT Industrials Electrical Equipment earnings 71 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Prysmian First Half 2026 Integrated Results Webcast and Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Massimo Battaini, Chief Executive Officer of Prysmian. Please go ahead.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#2

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining this call, quarter 2 results. We are super excited to highlight that this is the best quarter ever of Prysmian, EUR 730 million EBITDA, 13.4% EBITDA margin, 9.4% organic growth. So as you see it's a great quarter from the numbers perspective. It is also great in terms of the achievement of the appeals and mortgage deals with a EUR 10 million in the optical space over the next 10 years. Also, on the sustainability side, we exceeded our expectation with that 46% of the current revenue leading to sustainable solutions. When you read 46%, you need to read almost EUR 10 billion, where we provide customers with low carbon footprint and solution that has achieved their own targets. 42% is amazing reduction of Scope 1 and 2 over the design of 2019, setting great confidence in achieving the net 0 by 2035, well ahead of everybody else. Moving to this quarter 2 perspective, I think is important to share these slides -- not moving up, right? It's important to share this different perspective, which we are very proud of. You see in quarter 2, we delivered -- we created EBITDA higher than what has taken us more than 12 months in the past. In '19 -- 2018, sorry, we generated EUR 700 million EBITDA over the full year. In 2022, it has taken us 6 months, 1 semester, to deliver a similar EBITDA. Now, we did this in 1 quarter. This is a strong sign of the effectiveness and the good execution of the strategy that we designed years ago. So the stats that it is basically set on expanding the transmission business, growing leadership in North America, thanks to the acquisition. And also, shifting our focus from cable manufacturer that was our past driver of growth to solution pivot. Entering to the digital solutions space with more detail, I think you read the press release. I'd like to give you more color around the deals. So these are EUR 10 million revenues that applies to the optical space. There is a time lag in the change -- in the slide change. You see at the bottom on the right that our digital solutions business covered 3 of bits. One is optical, which is -- which account for 40% of the revenues in digital; connectivity, so components to connect cables; and MMS, which is copper cables, both the last 2 accounted for 30% of the total revenue. You see on the left chart, the green bars has played our involvement in data center activities. The horizontal line sets the scene relative to the past situation where we had in '25 green data center exposure -- data center exposure in green and in gray fiber to the old business. You see that we're adding this EUR 1.1 billion at run rate incremental revenue. At the same time, we are reallocating the best parts of the original to the own business to data center to gain even more share. And when you look at the 2021 perspective, you see that 19% of our revenues and even more in terms of EBITDA belongs to data center expansion. And we see ourselves as the company enabling the data center expansion better than anybody else because alongside optical, we have the whole range of -- a broad range of power cable products. Last to mention is the submarine telecom interconnection long haul, thanks to the acquisition. So this is definitely a transformative opportunity for the digital social space in Prysmian. From a very sacral business into a fast-growing business that is meant to chamber a sizable EBITDA by 2030-'31. We'll give you more detail about this at the next capital market. Moving to the semi-business, transmission continues very strong journey in terms of EBITDA margin at 22%, 20.2%. In terms of organic growth, extremely solid, 14.3% in quarter 2, and in absolute value, EUR 180 million in quarter 2. When you compare this to same quarter last year is almost EUR 60 million EBITDA accretion. In Power Grid, we confirm what we basically told you last quarter, you see a significant rebound in EBITDA margin from 12.4% to 13.8% sequentially with EUR 135 million EBITDA, set partly by strong demand in U.S. and also strong demand in Europe. But I will say that there is a kind of solid demand across all the other regions because the strengthening of the grid is a very common underlining driver of growth across all segment or market in our geographies. The organic growth was particularly satisfactory at 13-point -- 13% increase in this quarter. Moving to Industrial Construction. Also here, we improved significantly EUR 228 million EBITDA, EUR 20 million sequentially over 2025 quarter 2 with a EUR 5 million headwind coming from, even better when we excluded the ForEx effect. EBITDA margin rebounded from the 13% of quarter 1. We had a very strong quarter 2, especially in the United States with a very strong month of June inside this quarter 2. Organic growth in U.S. is higher than the group average, 13.4%, driven by data centers, so but not only also driven by the nonresidential market that has showed different signs, new signs of improvement vis-a-vis a kind of a flattish situation in 2025. Specialties is still suffering from weak demand in elevator in oil and gas and profitability under pressure in the automotive business that is remaining with us. But we maintain stable is a solid driver of EBITDA in different regions and is a nice complement to the last and construction business because those are sophisticated -- sorry, cables that we coupled with business, 235 equipment alongside, so it's an important complement and portion of our portfolio. Digital, digital is the start of the quarter, you see the standing EBITDA margin, 24% coming from 20.6% in quarter 1, and 24% is now the end of the day. It's not the end of the story. The 24% we go further up in the future. So this is said to be the most profitable business from the EBITDA margin perspective inside of the portfolio, beating the transmission business at 21% EBITDA margin in the quarter. You see our sizable is the increase over quarter 2 '25, EUR 60 million, out of which EUR 30 million are attributed to the perimeter change. Last year, we had Channell, including the port only for 1 month. This year is for the full period. But the rest from 60 to 90 channel from 90 to 122 is DAC's original perimeter. And you see the power of pricing efficiency, scale and the shift from to data center. Our sustainability and innovation KPIs are also extremely satisfactory. The 25% recycled content in quarter 2 is a sign of lower reliance on the tight copper market in the United States. We recycle more waste than we used to do in the past, globally in our cost and the shortening the -- and securing the supply chain and sharpening anytime. 46% revenues commented already before. This 32% of Vitality KPI is also an important indicator of a crucial and key for this company is to continue be nourished. This is starting at 1/3 of our revenue have been achieved 2 products that we launched in the market in the last 2 years. And when in terms of our revenue accounts for EUR 7 billion. So we have, in this year, EUR 7 billion revenues generated by new products. Why is this important? Because you probably set higher share of wallet, it means higher profitability. It means a different pricing power. It means a different value provided to our customers to strengthen our relationship. So key parameter for our growth in the future as well in the past. For example, of the innovation earlier, fiber is an innovative solution to convey data through air, so that faster, 30% faster than standard glass technology, allowing the center to this further space out involving to create a congestion on existing energy grids, which is the real constraint to the data center structure. And also in the transmission business, a very innovative solution to very deeper, greater than the standard methodology making the network more secure, more resilient and providing customer in terms of reliability of the connection. Let me hand over to Francesco for more details on the financial results of the quarter.

Pier Facchini

executive
#3

Thank you very much, Massimo, and good morning to everybody. As usual, let me use the profit and loss to recap some of the messages that Massimo has already passed. The organic growth in the first half was in excess of 7% with a very good acceleration in the second quarter, reaching 9.4% in the second quarter. I have to say that all the segments of the company performed extremely well in terms of organic growth with a growth of 14% in Transmission, 13% in Power Grid, 9% in ILC, 18% in Digital Solutions with the only little exception of specialties, which was substantially flat or slightly negative in the quarter. The performance was very strong in terms of EBITDA, as Massimo said, the best yet quarter at EUR 730 million with sequentially increasing EBITDA margin at standard metal at 15.4% and with a very substantial growth from the second quarter of last year, plus EUR 125 million, but also sequentially from Q1, plus EUR 130 million, as you see, from the right box of this chart. The lion's share of this growth was taken by transmission and digital solutions plus EUR 54 million and plus EUR 65 million, respectively. Of course, with the support also of a great performance of Channell that Massimo mentioned. Power Grid improved the margin sequential, which is very important. And as you have seen, organic growth in Power Grid, both in Europe and North America was extremely positive. Electrification and particularly I&C performed the best quarter in the last, I would say, 18 months Yes. So very positive, specifically in North America. Very good note also on the group net profit that reached EUR 569 million in the first half, by far the highest ever. And this is other than the EBITDA and the operating result, supported by a very nice drop in financial charges that you see here. slight improvement also of the tax rate. And this assess our group net profit estimate for the full year in excess of EUR 1.2 billion, which will mean a growth of earnings per share, which is significantly beyond the original targets that we had set. Let me now turn to the cash generation, which was solid, close to EUR 1 billion in the last 12 months as of June, a bit lower than the 1 that we had in Q1. The main reason -- I would say, the only reason is the very high impact and adverse impact of the rising metal prices, which was -- which reached actually the peak in the Q2 and which will progressively decrease in terms of adverse effect in the second half. Massimo will show you the updated guidance on the free cash flow, but we plan an extremely strong second half on the back, of course, of the contract with Molex, which will bring in a very substantial down payment. But even more importantly, on the back of a very strong cash flow coming from the transmission business. This year, the transmission business cash flow is mainly concentrated in the second half, and we are also doing great in terms of improving our working capital performance and efficiencies. And all this will contribute to this quite, I would say, strong target that we have set for the year, and Massimo will explain in a while. I think I move back to Massimo.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#4

Francesco, thank you. So quickly, to main challenges, the EBITDA, we raised this EUR 2.7 billion of the original guidance to EUR 2.850 billion, so a range of EUR 2.8 billion, EUR 2.9 billion is were saying that we have super high confidence to be the EUR 2.850 to end up in the top portion of -- in the upper part of the range to EUR 8.529 million. You'll see that safety South is already quite close to the target we set for 2028 at the capital market in 2025, which means that we will certainly in the next quarter 1 -- sorry, we will go out for a new Capital Market Day, providing and disclosing the trajectory from 2027 through 2030, 2031 with organic growth and a strong driver explanation of where we see this growth in the different geographies. And is an amazing number. Now EUR 1.7 billion is of course the say free cash flow of the company. It is true that there is a EUR 550 million coming from Molex as a down payment, but important to mention that there are significant increase in CapEx, partly to support digital solution capacity expansion, but partly to start showing the growth that we had to underline that we will disclose next year at the Capital Market Day. This is organic across many segments and main geographies, North America, but also Europe, but also other regions in transmission. So the EUR 1.7 billion is the effect of Molex on the 1 hand, some additional CapEx in '26 that will continue stronger in '27, and beyond, with the efficiency and the additional EBITDA offsetting the metal versus the original guidance. And the metal impact is around EUR 250 million. With this, I move to the closing remarks, so great performance, super satisfied by the change in pace of the company, the company showed this quarter. As I said before, we have -- we are pleased unique opportunity to be the only 1 serving data center with the whole product range they need for this function. We are on investing growth in '26 and beyond '26, and acceleration, I mean, paves the way for a new Capital Market Day in 2027. I would like to hand over to you for your questions and more details about our success story.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs.

Daniela Costa

analyst
#6

I have 2 questions. I'll ask them 1 at a time. But first, I just wanted to follow up on sort of the going forward, how should we think about fiber margins from here? Should we think about sort of having a linear step up. I think in the past, you have commented about mid-20% EBITDA margin, given all that happened in that segment and your new exposure. Is that still appropriate and sort of how the path is more linear, more back-end loaded? If you could give some color on that, and then, I'll ask the second one.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#7

Yes. The path, Daniela, is pretty linear through 2029 because the shorter market will continue until then. And we I mean, accurate targets, then we'll disclose at the Capital Market Day. We see us in the upper part of the range, 25% to 30%. So we will beat the 25% mid 20s and consider that's not only fiber will drive the growth, but also connectivity, especially the channel portion, which is also partly exposed to the data center will support the EBITDA margin growth in the coming quarters.

Daniela Costa

analyst
#8

Sorry, 25% to 30%, that's kind of what, for the '29 period that you've mentioned or that's sort of throughout the period and then you...

Massimo Battaini

executive
#9

Is linear from '27 to '28 to go as high as between 25% and 30%...

Daniela Costa

analyst
#10

Okay. And then just second question. I think in the past, you had tied up doing a date on the medium-term targets with sort of your M&A ambitions. I wonder if should we read anything into the timing of the CMD and that, if you could update a little bit how you're progressing on sort of your ambitions there?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#11

We are making progress. We analyzed a lot of companies in the last 12 months, and it could well be the case. We cannot comment much, but it could well be the case there before then will have a perimeter change. So that new ambition will include both organic and M&A perimeter -- additional benefit from the perimeter. .

Operator

operator
#12

We will now take our next question from the line of Vivek Midha of Citi.

Vivek Midha

analyst
#13

Hope you can hear me well. My first question is around the Molex deal. You've highlighted the figure of over EUR 10 billion of cumulative optical data center revenues, of which Molex is EUR 5.5 billion. So within the other portion of that figure, could you maybe give us an indication of how much of that has already been signed as of today versus how much you're anticipating in deals to come?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#14

Thank you, Vivek. The [indiscernible] as you said, bonuses hyperscalers, all players in the infrastructure deployment of data center function. And the balance is not as long in terms of duration as the Molex deal which is a 10-year deal. But for the next 5 to 6 thesis also covered by deals already signed. We are also thinking of making a second wave of capacity expansion because there's still a lot of demand unsatisfied the market. We keep receiving a request for additional volume delivered through existing customer, new customer, and I'm sure we are pretty confident that over the next 2 quarters, we will sign new deals in addition to the 1 that we agreed will end in the last 2 months.

Vivek Midha

analyst
#15

Just a follow-up to clarify. So is that -- are those -- that second wave of deals over and above the EUR 10 billion? Or is this part of the EUR 10 billion?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#16

It will be over and above EUR 10 billion agreements.

Vivek Midha

analyst
#17

Okay. Understood. My second question is on the IMC margin. The very strong organic growth, particularly in the U.S. The margin is down year-on-year. The U.S. is typically margin accretive in that business or it is margin accretive in this business. So why is the margin not stronger? And maybe could you elaborate on how the margin has developed in both Europe and the U.S. ?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#18

Yes. Thank you, Vivek. Yes, you actually an update. We also have another region that is highly accretive, which is LatAm. And so the margin LatAm are not as high as U.S., but close to. And in LatAm, we have, I mean, soften in margin in a couple of countries, 1 is Columbia, 1 is Argentina. And this is the reason why year-over-year, the margin are still slightly down. Also mentioned that the quarter 2 was a strong quarter in U.S., but June was the strongest quarter -- the strongest month ever. April and May were not as strong as last year. And so when you compare the year over year, the margin of quarter 2 '26, '25, bring it to cost did very well in June, but not as well as quarter 2 last year in April and May. But mainly the major effect is this weakening in the LatAm region.

Operator

operator
#19

The next question comes from the line of Akash Gupta of JPMorgan.

Akash Gupta

analyst
#20

And I got 2 as well. The first 1 is a follow-up on these framework agreements and that you have signed in optical fiber cable business. So Massimo, you previously said margins of Channell are higher than your remaining digital solution business because they sell directly to hyperscalers while your products were going through some intermediary companies that buy your products and then sell it to hyperscalers. So the question is that when you sign these optical fiber cable framework and you have Molex, you have directly with some hyperscalers. My question is that does the margin in framework agreement directly signed with hyperscale-er -- hyperscalers differs then when you sign with companies like Molex? Or are they same? So that's the first 1 to start with.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#21

Yes, interesting perspective. The margins today are even higher than what we have in the long-term deals. The first was that we wanted to trade a longer duration and security margin over a longer time than the best margin possible in the spot business. . When it comes to comparison comparing Molex to the hyperscalers, the margin across these 2 different customers is pretty much the same. Marcos new deals or recent deals have better margins than what we signed 2 months ago. And some of those agreements, Molex was signed 3 weeks ago, but some of the other agreements were signed 2 or 3 months again. So there is a close alignment in margin between the 2 them. There is a certainty today and is a terminal or October, November for sure. Better opportunity to enhance margin with new builds because they said the capacity is still what was 1 year ago, and for the next 2 years, we remain unchanged. And what matters is the ability to shift from all the traditional fiber customers to data center. But also bear in mind that the market is buoyant within favor of our customer because they are the reform volume as well. So margins are similar across the whole customer base, but they will be progressively grow. So new deals will be a stronger profitability. China margins are higher because it's not cable. It's component is plastic, metal frame or the stuff, and the bespoke solution, partly for data center and partly for fiber today.

Akash Gupta

analyst
#22

And my follow-up question is on guidance. Today, you are raising guidance by EUR 150 million at the midpoint. And I'm curious if you can help us split how much of that is because of digital solutions versus the rest of the company? And when we look at the upgrade that is coming from Digital Solutions, how much of that is already secured based on your renegotiation and higher prices from some contracts that are getting rolled over? And is there any scope for renegotiating some of the existing contracts in the second half that might bring upside to this EUR 150 million?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#23

Very pertinent question. The 2 drivers of growth behind this guidance is solidity in power grid and electrification, which is the baseline but certainly, transmission and digital solutions are the 2 main contributors to this EUR 150 million or to whatever the number would be that result with would be definitely higher than EUR 2 billion under. Transmission this year will add EUR 200 million EBITDA to last year. Last year, we ended up with EUR 580 million. You can imagine a number this year, EUR 200 million higher. And this is impact in this guidance, not fully, but in this guidance. . Digital solution is adding easily EUR 60 million, EUR 70 million, EUR 80 million to the previous guidance due to the repricing of the old business, we see margin improvement in digital solutions every single week. Every single week, we continue renegotiating contracts, frame agreements more content with existing fiber to their own customers. But every single week, we are telling customer, we are disappointing customers because we have more fiber to give them. So there will be additional chances to build extra profitability and digital solution in the coming months. certain point, we rationale. Now the market will be fully saturated by existing capacity is for sale, but it's the capacity. There will be no room for new deals, but new room for the deals will come from the additional capacity expansion that we are thinking or negotiating with other players, hyperscalers or infrastructure players in the second half of 2027. So EUR 150 million basically solid growth in power grid electrification the 1 and a stronger contribution from transmission and it solution to top up this number to EUR 850 million and beyond.

Operator

operator
#24

We will now take our next question from the line of Max Yates of Morgan Stanley.

Max Yates

analyst
#25

So I just wanted to start up on the hyperscaler agreement. So I think in that press release, you said that you expected your hyperscaler revenues to be around EUR 1.1 billion by 2031. I was just trying to get a feel for how much of your total digital solutions you were expecting the hyperscalers to be? Because look, where I'm going with this is I was slightly struggling to reconcile the numbers. I think you previously said hyperscalers would be most of your optical business, your optical business is typically 60% of your total business. So it just seems like quite a low number given where consensus revenues are. So maybe just any kind of -- any color around that, how much of that business should you be that number actually doesn't seem that high in the context of where consensus is?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#26

Yes. I like to -- I already said that, first of all, the breakdown the digital until revenue between the 37 optical connectivity and MMS. Take 2025 revenues, digital solution amounted to EUR 1.6 billion, out of that EUR 1.6 billion, you should see EUR 600 million more or less optical that is more or less equally split between connectivity and MS. When I say EUR 1.1 billion, data center is increment. So the EUR 600 million plus EUR 1.1 billion will make EUR 1.7 billion in the optical space. In the data center piece, inside of the space, EUR 1.7 billion of revenue by 2030 will account for 85% of the total debt. Today, in the '25, the EUR 600 million revenues in Optical, we had more or less EUR 200 million of data center revenues. So from EUR 200 million to EUR 1.1 million additional, but at the same time, the aero the own business, we have shifted to data center. So overall, I said EUR 1.7 billion revenue optical total for 2030, take 90% that will be deficit. So EUR 1.5 billion.

Max Yates

analyst
#27

Yes. That's very helpful. And maybe just a sort of bigger picture sort of question on tariffs. So we've seen obviously a huge amount of moving headlines. And I imagine it's very difficult for you to kind of keep on top of. But maybe just sort of your latest on-the-ground perspective of what all of these tariff headlines may be split by copper and aluminum is actually meaning for your business in terms of kind of underground activity? How it's driving competitor behavior? Whether you've seen any noticeable change in that in the last 3 months? And whether these kind of newer tariff headlines you expect any change maybe in the next 3 to 6 months as a result of any of the developments?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#28

I think we confirmed the trend that we noticed in the market in the last 2 months. One in as far as the cable is concerned, when they shifted from 50 percentile to 25% of platinum value of the cable, we noticed changes in there in the market, in part has become less relevant because they had to be clear the all value cable and pay on total. This brought them out of competition in terms of price that could not offer any longer a better price than the lower player artisanal cables benefit from more pricing or margin power in the last 3 months. As far as there is a concern copper, nothing changed. As far as the future targets concerned, I don't have a clue. But I think will help again local player to strengthen their position in the market to become even more relevant than importers, and hopefully, to bank it from incremental markets.

Operator

operator
#29

We will now take our next question from the line of Sean McLoughlin of HSBC.

Sean McLoughlin

analyst
#30

Can I start with Power Grid? I mean, impressive organic growth. And you talk about the positive trajectory continuing. I'm just wondering where you are in terms of your current loading capacity. And if we look out over the next 12 months, what is driving that positive trajectory? Is it more capacity coming online? Is it pricing? If you could just maybe flesh that out a little bit in more detail. That's the first question.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#31

The growth that we planned for our perimeter in power grid is coming from additional capacity. We approved that 1 year ago, additional medium base capacity in West and in Europe. And 2 months ago, we approved another wave of medium capacity increase in U.S. partly on that capacity, we serve the -- in City in the asset construction market, call it EPC or data center expansion, faster than remote will be for utilities because don't forget, this 4 grids that we have in U.S., mostly in Europe needs continuous reshaping and strengthening and hardening. Because the additional electricity demand increase across the globe. We are also positive about infamous cost increase pass-through to the market in order this time lag effect due to the existing formula -- and -- but since the market is buoyant, prices is increasing the market, we will be able -- we should be able to restore this famous 14.5% or 15% EBITDA margin in the coming quarter, maybe part, maybe quarter 1, I would say, but the growth opportunity is amazing. We are currently flat out in terms of capacity in Europe and North America. If you any more, we will sell more at a good price.

Sean McLoughlin

analyst
#32

That's very clear. The second question is back to Digital Solutions. Just on Slide 5, to understand, firstly, the cadence of the incremental revenues, which look to be peaking in '28. And then, you have a kind of a further pickup in 2031 after state -- I mean, I guess, '28 is related to higher CapEx in '26 and '27. Just wondering what's happening on the tail. And also the substitution switch of current revenues into optical. Is that -- again, should we assume kind of a linear progression, '25 to '31? Or is that switch are going to happen much more quickly?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#33

So the steady level our capacity expansion run rate will be achieved by 2030. So in 2030, we'll have additional capacity equivalent to EUR 1.1 billion incremental revenues in the data center space in the optical business. Until then, we will have a marginal improvement on capacity from '28 onwards, but the full run rate is 2030, but will have an important benefit by shifting away from fiber to data set. And so I don't know if I answered the question. But imagine today, we have EUR 600 million in optical business. In 2030, we will have EUR 1.7 billion in optical business. Today, last year, we had EUR 200 million in datacenter out of the EUR 600 million revenues. In 2030, we'll have EUR 1.5 billion revenue in data center. I hope that this answer the question, Sean.

Sean McLoughlin

analyst
#34

And I suppose just to follow up on an earlier comment you made about 2029. You're talking about the fiber shortage continuing up for them. Is -- do you already then assume that by '29, there is more of a supply-demand balance? Or is there likely to be more, let's say, demand upside risk pushing that date further back?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#35

Unfortunately, Sean, I would be unfair to say, if I'm able to read the market in 2029. The comment I would like to make is that it will take 3 years, '27, '28, 2029 for the players to build this capacity. And bear in mind that the place I'm talking about is us and corn because none of the others are in U.S. -- we are talking about U.S. fiber. The fiber, the origin country , the original production as to avoid the unbearable tariffs if you were produced in 5. And so the volume demand, I think, will continue. I don't think we reached the balance in '29. In fact, we have a new opportunity to expand capacity now beyond what we're really committed to doing for Molex and the others because there is additional demand in the market. What else to say, in the end of the day, for as far as our count is concerned, what the volume would be in demand in the market will be in '29, '30, '31 is not that relevant because we have security of the margins in absolute value over the next 7 to 10 years to the contract. But I believe that this balance will continue beyond 2029.

Operator

operator
#36

We will now take our next question from the line of Chris Leonard of UBS.

Christopher Leonard

analyst
#37

And maybe a few from me as well, 1 by one, perhaps. Starting on is solutions and thinking about the connectivity piece, obviously, you've spoken about the incremental revenue you see coming through directly into data centers. I wonder if there's anything you can give us looking out to 2030 on the connectivity portion of the division and whether or not that will also benefit from similar tailwinds and how you kind of think the Channell business will progress because, obviously, it's a very high margin?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#38

It is already, Chris. I think it's already a great uptake in the performance on connectivity in the current month because as the market rebounded in the U.S. across fiber to data center. Also, these components of connectivity, closures, boxes, evolves all the stuff that China mix front benefit from additional demand and better prices. So we had in quarter 1 and also quarter 2 '26 outperformed the result of Channell in quarter 1 and quarter 2 2025, significant. And we expect this to continue. At the same time, we are developing new products, larger boxes that goes underground for data center application. So this will give us the opportunity to add additional similar revenue to the Channell business the origin was only fibration adding the data center opportunities to Channell business. . And the margins in connectivity Channell is as high as 35% EBITDA, that 36%, 37% EBITDA. So very accretive to the division.

Christopher Leonard

analyst
#39

On digital, can you maybe talk about the phasing of the Molex contract this year? Are we anticipating a more material step up in revenue here for Q3, Q4? And with that, obviously, higher margins too on the basis of that basin being captured from the center customers, while Molex being 1 of them? And equally, the new contracts you just pointed to, that could be signed and maybe already have been signed to take you to EUR 10 billion or above, and those also contribute into the back half of this year?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#40

Yes. I mean the whole market is really demanding more already in '26. And the phasing of Molex growth is consistent with -- on the 1 end, I was telling expanding capacity in U.S. and not only in U.S. but certain the fiber space and with our speed in the allocating volume from existing customers. But I tell you, we are proceeding a very high base both on CapEx and on shifting from further to the old to data center. So quarter 2 is much higher than quarter 1 in terms of EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarter 3 will be higher, and Quarter 4 will be higher. And this would be a journey that we see our capacity increase immediately released to the market. Also, our ability to renegotiate existing contracts with avoid adding profitability, but also our speed in reallocated volume from fiber to the data center and the additional opportunities. The run rate level -- so the run rate level, as I said before, will be reached in 2030, when the full capacity will be coming online. Sorry. .

Christopher Leonard

analyst
#41

That's super helpful. And as a follow-up to your earlier comments of margin expansion being quite linear, sort of a 25%, 30% and confident in the upper end of that range. Should we think 25% is achievable for your '26 performance in digital solutions. Is that kind of what you're pointing to today?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#42

As a rate of quarter 4 for sure. Of course, the full year, it depends on -- in quarter 1, we had 20% because we were at the early stage of the pricing improvement. So if you take first half, we are probably a 22.5%, 23%. yes, we will end up slightly higher than 25% in quarter 4. Full year average would be probably 25%, but 27% would be -- the full year will be at a higher level of margins. .

Christopher Leonard

analyst
#43

Of course, yes. And then finally, going back to electrification and on the low voltage side and thinking about the margin progression here as we've seen some evidence the European market is picking up. Is there any comments you can make in terms of what you see in terms of the pricing opportunity in Europe and if you think there's going to be any sort of tailwinds in the next few years on what you can do there?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#44

And we can much more on the rebound that we noticed in the United States and what we're seeing in Europe. Europe is stronger than US last year in terms of demand and pricing but are still pockets of low margins in Europe and as well as we have a nice country with image. So the real upside from what I see is going to come from stable or mild growth in Europe, volume and margins, significant growth in the United States.

Operator

operator
#45

We will now take our next question from the line of Lucas Ferhani of Jefferies.

Lucas Ferhani

analyst
#46

Back on the phasing of the revenues in Digital Solutions. When I look at 2027, I'm wondering where is the acceleration coming from versus 2026 just because at that point, my understanding was that the repricing would be mostly done, and you don't have any new capacity yet coming online on 2027. So yes, just wondering why am I missing on the 2027 where it seems from the building drugs, you can grow kind of more on -- deliver more incremental revenues versus what you're delivering in '26 where the bulk of the repricing is happening .

Massimo Battaini

executive
#47

Lucas, on '27. There will be some marginal debottleneck existing capacity that we come online in '27, which will be in additional volume. There will be a repricing across the board. So we will probably be almost done to repricing everything to the best possible level. And there will be more share of the data center business inside our total property business. Those are the 3 elements that will compose the EBITDA growth and EBITDA margin announcement in '27.

Lucas Ferhani

analyst
#48

Perfect. And on the EUR 1.1 billion incremental, is that assuming kind of 100% of capacity is used? Or is that the visibility you already have from the frame agreement, and so there could be upside to that EUR 1.1 billion if you kind of deliver on other contracts?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#49

Lucas, it's basically the same. We took a commitment and senator capacity or we raised our capacity to the level of the -- so they are same numbers, EUR 1.1 billion is additional revenues, EUR 1.1 billion is additional capacity. .

Lucas Ferhani

analyst
#50

Perfect. And the last 1 was just on the free cash flow. It's quite a strong upgrade there for the year. very strong also conversion of EBITDA versus what we usually see. Just can you help us a little bit on the building blocks here just many big down payments coming in transmission? Or are there other things to mention for the higher free cash flow?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#51

I'd like to have Francesco being on the main components of this bridge, EUR 1.35 billion, EUR 1.7 billion.

Pier Facchini

executive
#52

Yes. Thank you, Lucas. Actually, it's quite simple. -- we have the positive components coming from the additional EBITDA, which is plus EUR 150 million versus the prior guidance. Of course, you have to take out some tax effect from that. Then, as I mentioned, we are increasingly improving our performance in terms of working capital, stock receivable, and this will contribute not a very different number from compared to EBITDA incremental effect. And substantial these 2 elements -- these 2 positive elements will offset the negative metal impact versus what we had already embedded in the guidance that we quantify in the EUR 250 million. Then, what is left are 2 elements, partly offsetting each other. One is the big down payment coming from Molex, EUR 550 million, net of a strong acceleration on that we quantify in the year of approximately EUR 200 million over the level of CapEx, which was embedded in the guidance. And this is leading to the midpoint of EUR 1.7 billion plus EUR 350 million. I don't know if I have been clear on that.

Operator

operator
#53

We will now take our next question from the line of Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Monica Bosio

analyst
#54

Yes. The first is on Power Grid, margins improved sequentially, but they are still a little bit far to the, I think, your target. Do you expect -- can you give us an indication of what do you expect for power grid by year-end? Is it 15% margins really achievable? . And my second question is still on the down payments and the structure of the framework agreements. So the company received -- will receive EUR 550 million of down payment. Should we expect further payments from Molex or the next down payments will come from the additional and not yet identified framework agreements? And should we model the same, let's say, the same weight of down payments that you got from Molex? And in addition to this, as the preform production is very energy intensive. I was curious about the structure of the cost within your framework agreement. Are you planning a complete pass-through to the final customer to the hyperscalers.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#55

Take my very articulated question, let me say, with Power Grid. The only reason why the margins are slightly behind the record margin achieved 1 year ago. is because we are in a cost inflationary situation, and we are allowed to pass all cost increase to the market with a time lag. And as long as the costs continue increasing, we will still suffer from this time lag. Should the cost inflation end 1 day, we will catch up with the 15% EBITDA margin immediately. The whole point is that the real question is the market stronger because even if you had a good cost price adjustment closes, the market wasn't strong, prices will go backwards. So the market is super strong. There's no pricing pressure in the market. New tenders will be made at a better price. So this is, again, a tempo some foreseen this mentioned, this is a temporary situation, which lasted longer, but it's due to the inflation in the year and work as a play into this don't be concerned the market is demanding more voltage, more cables, some more capacity and hyper prices pretty sustain. So we will catch up as soon as inflation will ease in the coming quarters. The down payment structure starts that we received down payment. And as we start delivering revenues after a certain number of years, we'll have to return the money that we had in advance. And so in 2030, '31, we'll give back -- '32, '33 will give back the vast majority of the tape. The structure of this deal is solid in the sense that addressing your third question, not only do we form you to pass on the cost, we have guaranteed volume, we take or pay and guaranteed margin because we pass the cost immediately without suffering on the contract, to what I said before in power grid, from this same idea. So in a given quarter, at the end of the quarter, the price will be adjusted based on the cost increase up and occur in that quote. So the margins in terms of dollars per fiber sold will be guaranteed throughout the period. Hope this answers your question.

Operator

operator
#56

And the next question comes from the line of Alessandro Cecchini of Equita.

Alessandro Cecchini

analyst
#57

The first 1 actually is on electrification. So -- you said that margins were down -- or I mean slightly up quarter-on-quarter but due to LatAm. Could you give us sort of feeling what are you seeing in the market now from the first half to the end of the year? So if you are seeing some impairment of business or just to give some flavor on this? My second question is secondly on...

Operator

operator
#58

We have lost the line of the questioner. We will now move to the next question, while waiting for him to reconnect. And our next question comes from the line of Nabil Najeeb of Deutsche Bank.

Nabil Najeeb

analyst
#59

I just had 1. Can you give us an update on the secondary listing in New York? It looks like the plan is back on with work being started on it according to your comments to the press this morning. Do you have a time line in mind for the listing?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#60

It's taking a sale a crucial point about a value product for us for value creation. Currently, we are very busy with a lot of stuff solid deployment of the data center opportunity, the contracts, new waves of capacity increase M&As. So it will be remaining our got to plan top one in the list and the probable moment will disclose the timing of this operation.

Operator

operator
#61

We will now take our next question from the line of Uma Samlin of Bank of America.

Uma Samlin

analyst
#62

Two for me, please. So first question is on M&A. I guess, you mentioned in the interview this morning, there are interesting in the M&A opportunities in the U.S. Would you be able to give us a bit more insight on what are the ideal type of business you find most exciting? Does the deal with Molex change your thinking in terms of how interesting and connectivity business for you versus accessories? Maybe we can start from that.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#63

Thank you, Uma. Our approach to M&A, Molex is a way to organically expand the capacity. It's a fast-growing opportunity for us. in terms of incremental EBITDA. We are still open to spaces M&A in spaces addition to our cable piece because we want to reinforce the revenues -- the share of revenues in the company that are solutions rather than just pure cables. And so U.S. remain probably the best geography for those opportunities given the high profitability in the market, both in power, electrification and digital solution space, but we're also looking at other regions. And I'm confident that the coming quarter will -- we will be able to disclose more, of course, at the proper timing and the signing of the projects. .

Uma Samlin

analyst
#64

That's super clear. My second question is on your capacity ramp-up for the fiber production. So if I'm looking at the Slide 5 from the presentation, it's very helpful on that slide. So it seems like you're already planning to have some significant capacity increase by 2028. Is that ahead of your schedule? And then how should we think about the phasing of your capacity expansion from there? And then I guess, a follow-up also on the second -- you were talking about the second wave of deals that could be above EUR 10 billion. how much more capacity do you be able to add on top of that tax, you have announced, what would be the time line there? So if you do sign those contracts, would that be done on top of the EUR 1.1 billion revenues?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#65

Uma, yes, we will have the run rate capacity achieved by 2029 -- end of 2029. So part of the capacity increase will happen in '27 in Europe, the rest will happen in the United States, where we are planning to more than doubling the fiber capacity location in US. So by '29, there will be this more -- in 2028 will be -- the first chunk of this more than doubling U.S. capacity, let's say, 1/3, 40% of the run rate capacity will be already implemented by 2028. If you went for new deals -- and this will require -- this will require additional capacity. We are not thinking to go too wide in terms of its capacity, but the demand from different players and the usual hyperscalers customers still unsatisfied. And we will, for sure, sign other deals. And this will bring the incremental revenues incrementally over the EUR 1.1 billion yearly revenue added by 2031 or 2030 of the existing deals.

Operator

operator
#66

We will now take our next question from the line of Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca.

Alessandro Tortora

analyst
#67

Yes. Thanks to everybody. I have 3 questions. Okay, if I may. The first one, let's say, relates to the transmission business. If you can, let's say, give us an update on the, let's say, second half outlook in terms of tender of award, if you expect any acceleration on this one? . The second question is on, let's say, I understood your comment on free cash flow, if you can help us also to reconnect a little bit with the, let's say, outlook on deleverage, year-end leverage, considering also the incremental CapEx? And on the factor you mentioned before on the upfront payment, and the last 1 is, let's say, just as more curiosity. You mentioned the 5 with, let's say, this innovative solution that you are basically under development from a commercial standpoint, a lateral standpoint. Can you give me an update on this? If you see that an kind of short teatime, years of time, if you see, let's say, any update and that this solution can be commercialized with your existing, let's say, data center clients?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#68

As far as is concerned, the second half should be a bit more buoyant than first half in first half with what was available from the market. Our backlog is still pretty high, EUR 17 billion. The demand -- overall demand in '26, we estimate around EUR 10 billion in new projects awarding to the market, and we expect to see this level be beaten in '27-28 because the project in the pipelines that we '27-'28. Like to defer to Francesco free cash for connection to the leverage at the end of the year.

Pier Facchini

executive
#69

Thank you, Massimo. Based on this update of the free cash flow guidance we estimate that the year-end net debt will be in the region of EUR 2.3 billion/EUR 2.4 billion, which means a quite outstanding improvement versus our original expectation. And actually, in terms of leverage, if you take the updated EBITDA guidance means a leverage of around 0.8x. So a very low leverage.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#70

Thank you, Francesco. As far the is concerned, we completed, let me say, investors phase. Last week, we were in U.S., and we -- we ended over this cable, not the fiber, the fiber in cables to Amazon for an installation trial, the test the passed successful they try to create this scale in a possible way that could not do it, and they could not achieve it. So we pass the test, we are now able to scale production to a different level. The demand is high. The level margins is extremely interesting. It's all about how fast we can scale this up to a more mass production level. It will never be a solution that accounts for more than 10% of the fiber market demand, but it would be pretty profitable from this perspective.

Alessandro Tortora

analyst
#71

Understood. And just if I may, a quick follow-up on this. I recall that you have, let's say, this agreement or you invested into the Relativity Networks company. You're currently a shareholder of this company, assuming that you're going not to start commercializing the solution. Do you expect it to do also a step up in terms of ownership into the it networks?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#72

Yes, good question. We are discussing this as we speak. I footage to make a decision. We want to wait and see what happened in the second half in terms the bar is on us in our field, we are to speed up the industrialization and additional capacity. Currently, we are producing this in Europe. The idea applies for the rollout of, in United States, where this demand is located. And probably towards the end of this year, we will evaluate additional ownership or additional opportunity with relativity network in terms of stake in the company. .

Operator

operator
#73

I'd now like to invite Alessandro Cecchini of Equita for his questions.

Alessandro Cecchini

analyst
#74

Do you hear me?

Massimo Battaini

executive
#75

Yes.

Alessandro Cecchini

analyst
#76

Okay. Perfect. I repeat maybe my question.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#77

First question we got.

Alessandro Cecchini

analyst
#78

I move to the second and we answer both. Okay. Okay. So my last 1 was -- I don't know because the line was down about the European opportunities in terms of margins electrification. -- you can or a little bit more on this if you have plans to restructure or to improve margins in the region. So I don't know if you answered this question.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#79

Yes. So the first question was about the market development in other regions. In LatAm, we had -- we're going through a normalization. LatAm we had this spike in margins in the last 2 years in Argentina due to the country situation and in Colombia, and now, we suffer from normalization. No bad things to things that happened nothing extremely relevant. But, of course, LatAm weighed a lot in terms of overall profitability because their profitability is pretty close to that United States. . Europe, partly to answer your second question, is mildly growing in terms of volume growth and in terms of profitability. We have plans to strengthen the growth through things that we cannot probably disclose too much. There will be some restructure some additional capacity relocations. So there some footprinting in Europe mildly reprinting, but will help us strengthen our position in Europe and also become more efficient in serving customers in a way similar to what we do in U.S.. So this is more or less the essence of what we have in mind for the European margin enhancement.

Operator

operator
#80

We have no further questions. I'll now turn the conference back to the room for closing comments.

Massimo Battaini

executive
#81

So thank you very much, everyone, for your time. I hope you enjoyed the call, and hope you will be also enjoying your holiday in the coming weeks. Thank you, and see you soon. .

Operator

operator
#82

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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