Enel SpA (ENEL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for being with us today. Thanks to the people here in the room, and thanks to the ones connected via Webex. Before going into the agenda of today's CMD, we have a short video, which starting from the 9-month results is wrapping up the teams that we will discuss today, looking at customer-centricity first. Video, please. [Presentation]

Great. We move now to the agenda. If you can put that on the screen, please. Okay. Fantastic. Our CEO, Francesco Starace, will go through the strategic actions towards 2030; and our CFO, Alberto de Paoli, will show you how this action will play out in the 2022-2024 plan. The Q&A session will be run at the end of the presentation. I will call analysts here in the room and the one connected. If you are unable to intervene, just send an e-mail to [email protected] with your question, and I'll pick them up. I think it's time to crack on. Francesco, up to you.

Thank you, Monica. Good morning to everyone. Welcome to our 2021 Capital Market Day. After the one we had virtually last year, we have a semi-virtual one with some physical presence, which is welcome. Let me start with a little bit of context. You've gone through a lot of context, I'm sure. So this will -- this is going to be quick. But we wanted to wrap up that -- what we see. The world is moving towards Net Zero by 2050. It has already started to transform this journey, our economies and the way we live. And it is starting from the electricity sector that it is being decarbonized following a robust economic competitiveness logic. CO2 emissions have been reduced by 17% in OECD countries, particularly thanks to efforts of the power sector. However, the global efforts need clearly to be stepped up. It is clear now to everyone that the next decade will be crucial to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreements and the process of decarbonization. And the subsequent electrification of global economy are key, if we want to avoid serious human and monetary economic, I would say, repercussions from rising temperatures above 1.5 degrees. As we have seen in Glasgow, defining the road map to Net Zero is an extraordinary challenge, and many, many efforts from different sources are necessary in order to achieve the outcome. It is, however, like very, very evident that a massive scale-up electrification is needed. There are several scenarios that are trying to have decision maker to define the road to achieve climate targets, but one message is extremely common to all of them to reach the climate targets we all try to achieve. We need to electrify and consumption as much as possible, while supporting this electrification with a massive deployment of decarbonized energy solutions. So the most recent scenarios that you see more or less in this chart, they see an increase of global temperatures, trying to maintain that into 1.5 degrees. They all confirm that we need basically to double the electrification rate of the energy consumption of the world, going from roughly 22%, 25% to 50% by 2050. This means that doubling, like I said, the current rate of electrification. And this would add 24,000 terawatt hours of additional clean power production to make this happen. Not impossible, but clearly, a big challenge and a big opportunity for those that work in this space, that needs to be understood and acted upon right now. The decarbonization of the sector will lead to an acceleration in this trend that is already underway in many world economies. Recognizing this, in the course of '21, the IEA has increased its estimate for 2030 electrified consumption and renewable capacity that you see here. According to the updated sustainable development scenario, global renewable capacity is projected to grow to 14.7 terawatts by 2040. That is more than 5x the actual 2019 number. In just 1 year, the IEA has increased the projection by 23%. This is not new to the IEA. You know that they keep adding stuff as the outlook clarifies. In terms of electrified energy consumptions, expectations have increased by 10%, also another big number, to more than 36,000 terawatt hours. Now if we look at the Net Zero scenario of the IEA, the renewable capacity and the share of electrification in 2040 would increase even more, and you see this in this chart. So the power sector needs to play a crucial role in enabling the drastic reduction of emission globally to reach the Net Zero goal. Let me underline that this will be underpinned on increasing production cost competitiveness of carbon-free electricity vis-à-vis fossil alternatives. So there is a complete alignment with what economics are and what the outlook of decarbonization needs to be. This time, I think there is consensus around the world from this very important point. However, the electricity journey across the world economy will require -- do require, I would say, some basic conditions. And the first and most important in our view is that customers must be active drivers of electrification of consumptions. If customers don't see a convenience in this, it will be difficult. More specifically, and this -- until this -- some conditions are met, the electrification will not happen at the required pace. What are these conditions? First, energy must be affordable. Consumer behavior are primarily driven by prices. Therefore, electricity will substitute other forms of energy only if it is cheaper and its pricing less erratic, so stable. This, in turn, entails that electricity generation needs to be further decarbonized because the cost of renewable energy is already lower than that of marginal thermal generation production costs. And also, it would also cut the dependence on volatility of commodities going forward. Second condition, electricity is to be delivered to final users in a reliable and safe way. Increasing the resiliency of the networks and digitizing them are very important points in order for this to happen. Finally, customers increasingly will demand a range of high-quality services and the ability to access electricity easily to cover new needs. An example that we are looking at, that was not there a few years ago, is, for example, the powering of electric vehicles as well as digital products and services that are now essentials. This will allow customers to become more efficient with their power use to make savings or benefit even in the case of cars from new energy -- new revenue streams in the role of prosumers, greatly improving the emission footprint. We think these 3 conditions will be met during the next decade, and we think the next decade will be a decade of electrification. We just finished a decade. Without knowing it, we finished it during the COVID, okay? And this is a decade of renewable energy. We all discovered why renewable edge is important, that it is competitive, that it is easier than we thought. But that's not news anymore. We've done that. It will continue to unfold in front of us. It's nothing new. It's the basic of generation of the future. It's a fact. What happens now in this decade is another thing. The penetration of electricity in sectors of our economy in life that have not seen it before, and that's the opportunity we want to look at. It's a decade of electrification. In this space, what are our strategic actions? First of all, keep allocating capital to support the decarbonized electricity supply. Over the past 5 years, we have transformed Enel in order to be ready for this moment. And we have significantly decarbonized our generation. We have significantly digitized our networks to accommodate increasing amounts of renewables. We have been offering high-quality and reliable power, and we have accelerated the digital transformation and the platformization of the group in order to support and improve the proposition to the customers. Our business peaks, while constantly optimized, is set to cater for this favorable environment. This allows us to define clear value-creation targets. On Chart 9, you can see summarized the strategic actions that will allow us to achieve our goal. And we think that capital allocation is the first building block to support future growth. We will explain to you how we aim to maximize our position with customers, leveraging our integrated business model across the value chain. And in order to achieve this, we have to evolve the organizational structure of the group, simplifying it and focusing our countries where the integration with customers and portfolio of the generating assets allows us to unlock the major opportunities. And consequently, so as a result of these 3 things, we are going to be bringing forward our Net Zero targets, which you might recall were by 2050. Now we are quite confident that we can do that by 2040 on all the 3 scopes: Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3, direct and indirect emissions. And we see that the next 10-year strategy is pivotal to address climate change issues. Let's see the first of these strategic actions. Last year, we presented our ambition to 2030, and it was a year in which we unveiled a 10 years investment plan. So we reached 2030. That was a total of EUR 190 billion of investment, as you see in the left-hand side of this chart, including EUR 30 billion catalyzed -- of investment catalyzed by third parties. This year, we see our portion of investments increasing by more than 6%. So we go up to EUR 170 billion by 2030. We expect an acceleration of opportunities to be captured by the ownership business model, basically in infrastructure and networks -- to the distribution networks, as I will explain later. This will, in turn, catalyze around EUR 40 billion by our partners, bringing the overall amount to EUR 210 billion. So it's about EUR 10 billion more than last year. Bear in mind, this is a year less. So it's true that EUR 10 billion more, but on a total number of 9 years, not 10. We have tailored our capacity allocation towards supporting our client requirements so that we can accelerate the path toward electrification in the decarbonization goal. Now let's see how that moves across the business line and what will happen at the end of 2030. If this happens, by 2030, we expect to reach a total renewable capacity of around 155,000 megawatts. This will treble our current portfolio and confirm our role as a large renewables super major, as it was mentioned last year. To reach a total grid customers of 86 million, of which 5 million managed through stewardship business models in networks that are enabled by our platforms. And to contribute to the electrification trends of our customers via a reinforced commercial offering that will result in an increase of about 30% in the electricity sold, coupled with new services. For example, public electric mobility behind the meter storage are just 2 examples of that business that are already scaling up supported also via partnerships. Let's see how the Ownership business model unfolds, and then we will go through the Stewardship business model. So we start from the top line of this chart. By 2030, we will invest a total of EUR 160 billion in the Ownership business model, of which around EUR 90 billion will go to Enel Green Power and customers and EUR 70 billion in networks. We see them both as the key enablers of the shared value. Our investing activity will be concentrated in countries. Here, we inject a new term in our terminology. It's Tier 1 countries. So the countries where we have an integrated position across the value chain or where we think in a very short time, this can be assembled. And we will leverage on the whole value chain from generation to integration with our final customers. So you will see the Ownership business model mostly, I would say, almost completely applied to this set of countries. You see the flags over there. Italy, Spain, Romania, the European countries where we have this integrated business model. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Americas and the U.S. are those outside Europe. I want to focus on how each global business line contributes in this path. So we start with Enel Green Power. From the end of 2020 to 2030, we expect to add 84,000 megawatts of capacity, of which 9,000 megawatts will be storage. This is another new number we give with some clarity. So this is a lot of storage. In the next few years, you will see this really booming. This will bring the percentage of hybridized renewable energy plants to plants that also have storage to about 30%. This will entail a spending of EUR 70 billion. These targets fully aligns with the one presented last year, will drive the installed capacity at consolidated level to 130,000 megawatts, almost 3x the one that we had last year. The technological split remains quite balanced. The CapEx is skewed towards a development in Tier 1 countries, generating and changed return vis-à-vis what we said last year in November. These returns are calculated as individual asset returns. Do not take into consideration additional value creation that the asset will be able to generate in these countries, where we have an integrated position across the value chain. Now renewables are the future of generation. This is the best possible option to sell energy to customers in the future. Therefore, we think their full value, not the value of the individual project, but the full value of generation must be seen in conjunction with the value we can offer to customers from managing an integrated position, and we will have a little bit of an explanation on this fact later on. So you see in this chart quite a jump in renewable generation. This is not out of nowhere, but it comes, I would say, on the shoulders of what has been done in the past years. We see in this chart -- I remember, I said that 2010-2020 was the decade of renewables. You see a little bit of the journey that we made during these 10 years. We expanded progressively our yearly developed capacity, and we will reach this year an all-time record of 5,000 megawatts. We did 3,100 last year. In 2021, that means, we build 13x what we built in 2010, and that we've done adjusting our structure, our organization, the people work with us and all the tools we need to do that safely. Now after 10 years, we are ready to continue growing this. And you can project, we think we can easily achieve this to go to 15,000 megawatt yearly installation by the end of 2030. So you will see this trend to continue during the next years, accelerating this growth in this kind of pattern. A progressive acceleration of our renewable growth over time will continue through the decade. That is underpinned by the future, and the future is this chart. You recall that last year, we presented a growth pipeline that was a little bit of a shock by some analysts because it was a big jump. But it is roughly half of the one that we are presenting to you now, while we basically maintain the level of additional capacity with a small increase. Our action has been concentrated on creating a portfolio of opportunity that significantly underpins and derisks our 2030 targets both in terms of megawatts and in terms of returns, highlighting our broad growth optionality. This is a huge optionality that we built here. This is captured by the evolution of our early-stage pipeline. This trebled in just 1 year, and more importantly, because that's much more close to today's time, by the mature pipeline that doubled to 87,000 megawatts. Once again, we approved the solidity of our development machine with its global scouting activities and engineering that goes with it. The development of this year sheds light on the next 5 years of growth. So what you see here will feed the next 5 years of growth and will give us comfort in our optionality and ability to find and execute the best-quality projects, not just some projects. We want to be sure that we get the best projects. And this is a big machine. You can imagine how many people are working here. It is based on a system of 3 digital platforms that you see, I would say, briefly summarized in this chart, which is -- it was painful to put together because it's really complicated to put it in one chart, but we tried to do our best here. You see the first platform is the development platform. This is a digital system that provides a common interface to our people and partners for pipeline management, follows the path of a project from the initial idea to the face of commissioning. And we expect to invest in this platform around EUR 1 billion over the next 3 years. The second in the middle is the engineering and construction digital platform, aiming at covering 100% of our sites under construction by 2040 with automated solutions. This results in a decline of 25% in project's lead time and 9% in headcount per megawatt in the last -- in the next 3 years. Finally, on the right-hand side, you see the operating and maintenance platform. Today, this is managing 1,200 plants, around 20,000 generating units in 23 countries. A key layer of performance because 100% of our fleet is covered by remote control. That means recovering 12% of loss production factors by 2040, while reducing unitary fleet costs by 9%. Enel Green Power is the present future of generation. It's already present, it is the future. Infrastructure and networks are the enablers, the essential enablers, of this transition. Enel network ambition is to strengthen our position as a global player for scale, quality, efficiency and resiliency. Climate events are not going to stop. They will continue to happen more and more frequently. So resiliency will be key if we want to achieve a good electrification process. Our grid infrastructure will allow customers to play also a more active role. This will enable the electrification of consumption and will facilitate the choice of electricity as the individual contribution of each customers to a sustainability concept. Compared to the previous 2030 plan, we envisage an increase of EUR 10 billion in investment in networks to around EUR 70 billion. This is a 17% increase. Where is it happening? Basically, it's happened by investment in Europe, Spain and Italy. This moved from EUR 36 billion to EUR 46 billion. They represent 2/3 of the network investment globally. And it also includes EUR 5 billion associated with the national recovery and resiliency plans of these 2 countries. We expect RAB to reach EUR 65 billion organically, supported by a CapEx plan that ensures that the higher level of quality at the highest level of efficiency is achieved. The electricity distributed grows from 500 terawatt hours to 570 terawatt. This is an increase of 14%, while our customers are expected to grow by 6 million. To increase -- this increase in network CapEx is needed because delivery of electricity to our customers must be reliable and safe. About 62% of our CapEx will be deployed to improve further quality and resiliency. It's a key driver to better withstand increasing load that are associated with increased electricity demand, the integration of renewables with mostly our distributed energy sources at medium-to-low voltage level to accommodate grid services and cope with extraordinary external climate-related event. About 25% will be invested in connections, which benefit from growing demand driven by urbanization and electrification and consumption, and 13% to further digitize the infrastructure. The investment plan will generate significant efficiencies. They will lower by 20% to 0%. The OpEx grid customer while -- ratio, while increasing quality and keeping the distribution tariffs tangentially flat. So how can that happen? You remember last year, we depicted the Grid Blue Sky. This is an idea we had 2.5 years ago, to build a digital infrastructures that would manage our single -- in a single platform our grid portfolio under a unified global model. This model puts the clients at the center of the value chain and the service around the clients. So clients, what they want and the service that they want, no more. To our knowledge, this is today a unique platform. No one has this kind of systems around the world. It is unique in dimensions. It is unique in reach. It is unique in scope. With this new platform, we will forecast an impact of each single decision both when planning or when configuring our assets. This platform is focusing, in particular, on operating performance of on-field operations to support increasing levels of efficiency, and more importantly, of safety. We see significant operating benefits from greater efficiency, recovery of energy, automation of claims, lower commercial losses that you see on the right-hand side of this chart. I would add here that this is the first field, in which we started using quantum computing to manage certain complex problems that required days of computing from normal computers and minutes from quantum computing present point. It's an incredible powerful platform that we have. That was for the, say, Ownership business model. Let's go quickly to the Stewardship business model. And let me take this opportunity to better clarify where is it that we want to use this model because that was a little bit some of the questions we got last year. First of all, we, as Enel, will invest about EUR 10 billion in Stewardship, injecting either equity in existing companies or established joint venture or acquiring minority stake to maximize the value of our know-how through services of contract services with third parties. The Stewardship business model will be primarily, not exclusively, but I would say largely primarily on non-Tier 1 countries. So the countries that are not those that I mentioned before, where, for example, our generation is not integrated with customers or we want to leverage on third parties to scout new geographies or we can monetize our expertise to our services to our partners. So -- but places where this integration across the value chain is not possible or very unlikely to happen, okay? So this provides optionality in countries where maybe there is a chance that this sooner or later will bloom up and become a potential future development or an integrated model. But we expect the Stewardship model to contribute about EUR 4 billion of cumulated EBITDA over the next 5 years -- 9 years, of which 3 are associated with contracts -- management contracts and the rest come from the crystallization of our value during these 9 years. The overall return on capital investment is set to stay around 20%. Now how do the business lines do in this system, in this Stewardship model. You see that here on the left-hand side, we start with Green Power. The joint venture established will develop around 22,000 megawatts of capacity. They will manage at the end of 2030 around 25,000 megawatts, corresponding to a production that is about 5x higher than the one that we have today. On networks in the center of the chart here, we think we might acquire new minority stakes in networks, managing around 5 million grid customers. And we will put the [ proprietary technology ] that we have built on digital services and digitalizing and digitizing of networks at the service of third-party networks operator, leveraging on Gridspertise. Gridspertise is the name of a newly formed company dedicated to the digital transformation of power grids. This is [indiscernible] built over the last 20 years, and we want to be able for others to achieve the same results and use that technology know-how. That company will target to sell to third-party services for more than 16 million of Smart meters by 2030. In Enel X, this is the right-hand side of this chart here, we expand the model to fuel growth in some of the services we provide, such as electric mobility, behind the meter storage or public charging points. An example of the joint venture is the one that we just announced with Volkswagen, through which we expect to manage around 3,000 high-power charging points and speed up the rollout through the country in Italy. Now we mentioned customers a lot, so far. So why don't we just talk about it from the beginning. As I said, in the next decade, electrification will be important, but it will be driven by customers. Without them, this is just a word empty of significance. The strategic actions we have will aim at maximizing the value of this trend because we think customers have already started, but will have an increasingly active role in the development going forward. Now we are in the process of tailoring clear integrated offering, combining commodity and beyond commodity services. So this might come a little bit as a return to the past, if you want, but it's time to reflect on that. I think our customers, be they retail customers, business customer or public authorities in companies, government companies, they all will see an increase in the level of electrification while improving the service they experience. And the commercial strategies we have aim at maximizing revenues, while minimizing the cost of energy through investment in our asset base. Now in Tier 1 countries, so you might recall the ones that -- where we have an integrated position across the value chain, this will result in a growth that will basically double our integrated margins in 9 years. Mind you, it's already high, but we think this can double in the next 9 years. Let's see how this can happen. First of all, let's look at what we are trying to achieve here. Our customer operation is the largest globally in the industry. Today, we manage about 16 retail companies in different countries, around 70 million of commodity customers and 7 million beyond commodity customers. The management of such a big client base today is supported by a platformization digital concept that, on one side, allows the processes to be automated, mappable, to be highly replicable. On the other side, more importantly, perhaps, is these platforms allow data processing and a degree of intelligence on a totally new level of efficiency and depth of analysis. We did not have that 2 years ago. Now we have it. And customers would see a better service reflected in a reduction of both commercial and billing claims and the average time to activation as well as additional features that are going to be tailored to their specific needs. By 2024, we expect this platform not only to reduce the cost to serve, but also to strengthen our competitiveness and increase customer satisfaction and general retention. Now the journey to value kicks off with revenues. We target our customer revenues to increase of around 80% in 2030 versus current levels. This is underpinned with our actions to push electrification to our customer consumption in line with what international agencies and current projection and what we start to observe already in some geographies. So we have -- and to understand, we've seen this trend creeping in during the last 18 months, so it's starting. And it's a little bit strange that while it's happening, we don't see it, but we see it just a little bit later. And this is a little bit what happened with renewables at the beginning of last decade. This was going on, but we just got it maybe earlier than others, but we got it when it was already started. This is something happening now, okay? We just -- remember, because this -- in 2 years or 3, this will be obvious, but this is not so obvious today. It's happening. So along this path, new services will be necessary and required. For example, how to charge my car, How do I store the electricity in excess at my home or my factory or my office producers? What do I do with value extraction on flexibility I offer to the market with my factory? And stuff like that. This plan is based on a significant decline in the electricity price. So this is underpinned by the fact that renewables are cheap. And this scenario will see a flat unitary revenue, thanks to a higher share of the beyond commodities component. In a future where energy spending will be more skewed towards electricity than before, customers that will do this will enjoy a flat price, not volatility. The position we have today is unique because we benefit from the energy transition trends in Europe, where electrification is underway, as well in the development countries where electrifications becoming urgent, particularly in large cities where we are. So we expect to substantially increase the amount of energy that we sell to customers, as you see here, targeting and proactively pushing a 1.4x increase in rate of unitary consumption, resulting in more than a 70% increase in volumes. So this will increase the demand of high value-added services that we are going to be able to deliver through an integrated commercial proposition, focusing residential as well as business customers. Increasing volumes, services and revenues will come together with a decline in cost to serve. The unitary energy and service cost is set to decline quite significantly by 2030. The driving -- the drivers here are renewables on the energy cost, digitalization on the service cost. So these are the 2 key cornerstones for this cost decline. And therefore, we expect the marginality of services to remain flat, while the cost of energy is also declining by around 40%, driven mainly by the acceleration of renewables, as I said. Now if you look at what happens and why this cost should go down, you see that the infrastructure investment that we are going to put together will drive the share of sales covered by our own generation to 70% in the total by 2030, up 10 percentage point despite the significant growth in electricity sales. By 2030, renewables will reduce the cost of energy produced by 50%. I know that today, this seems strange. We are in the crisis of gas, and oil prices go to the roof. We think if -- this might continue if there is no renewable buildup. But if we keep this renewable growth we are having today, we see this going down 50%. And it reflects the substitution effect from the phasing out of thermal asset. As a consequence and as we anticipated in the slide before, the cost of energy sold goes down by 40%. It will be less volatile, more stable, and therefore, much more convenient to all our customers. If you see here on the left-hand side, the total investment deployed to asset renewable generation mainly and customer acquisition dedicated to support this integrated position across the value chain is about EUR 80 billion. The resulting increase in the integrated margin is shown on the right-hand side. It's 2.6x the one that we have today. The corresponding ratio of integrated EBITDA on development CapEx is around 15%. These are, I understand, kind of new metrics in the industry because we never really looked at it this way. So in a way, I apologize to you because I understand this is a little bit of a disruption. But we think we need to inject a little bit of new tools if you want to understand the phenomenon we're going to witness in the next years. Customers are going to bound to benefit from this trend because it will allow them to reduce household spending, and when I say household spending, I mean, in general, energy consumption, okay, just including gas, by roughly 40%; to have a much sustainable footprint because the renewable energy percentage of their energy spend will grow above 85%, and therefore, contribute to the reduction of emissions from their side, so making them also benefit from the sustainable development by 80%. So it's a big -- first, money and then footprint for them is really important. Now how do we do this? So to do that, we have to go back in time a little bit. So allow me to give you a little bit of flashback. This is a vintage chart with the old logo of Enel that we are going to propose here again. But sometimes it helps. This is a 2014 presentation. We took it from there. When we unveiled these matrix, remember the matrix presentation last time, this is when we focused on organic growth. We wanted to put more emphasis on accountability and profitability versus the past. The 5 global business lines, they have the objective of allocating capital while reaching a higher level of efficiencies in the countries. On the other side, they have to focus on local customers, local shareholders, local regulations, supporting cash generation today. You remember that at that time, we said, "Technology unites us, customers divide us." Yes, that was a little bit what we said in 2014. And I was absolutely true. However, time has passed and the digital transformation has basically changed a lot of things. That is what happened. In 2014, we were on the left-hand side here. In 2016, we started migration to the cloud, all our systems and data. This is -- was completed, this massive migration in 2019. Now because we finally are 100% in the cloud, we can accelerate the transformation of Enel into a digital company for real, not just in words, with significant impacts in terms of performance, scalability and automation. The platforms that I have decided -- that I have described to you before are based on what happened during this period. In 2017, we set up Enel X. This is the native digital business of the group, the incubator of smart technologies and innovative services to our customers. In 2020, so last year, the process of platformization of our infrastructure business, so the huge universe of networks we have, was completed through the completion of the Grid Blue Sky platform. And then we also launched the customer operation platforms, putting together in a single system all the customer operations worldwide. So you don't know if you are our customers in Colombia that you are being serviced and billed by the same customers that bills your brother that lives in Madrid or us that are in Rome. It's just the same system. It speaks different languages and applies different regulation and formats, but it's the same data set and the same application systems. Today, all of our activities are scalable, can be defined globally and can be deployed locally. Now we have put together the building blocks that we need in order to make another step. That is the one shown here. So we can put back global customers, retail, commodity, gas, retail commodity electricity and Enel X into one global operations that can operate based on the digital dimension we have achieved, okay? So now having done all this, having built and fine-tuned all the previous digital and organizational structures, we are now in a position to taste this logical conclusive step. We are launching a global customer business line, which will be responsible for defining integrated marketing and commercial integrated strategies as well on-field sales activities in all Tier 1 countries, enabling us to fully satisfy customer needs and maximizing the profitability of the portfolio of customers. The role of countries, therefore, changes a little bit. What are the countries going to do at this point? They will be responsible for something that is crucial going forward, the optimization of 2 portfolios: the customer portfolio and their changing demands and the portfolio of assets that needs to be serviced together in order to satisfy these demands the best way. So what is the optimal position we want to have in this country? How much can I grow without getting into trouble? And out of this growth, which is the ideal mix of customers? And after that is defined, and we're striving to achieve that, what kind of generating assets are best to serve these kind of customers over the evolution of the demand? This is the role of a customer. This is the role of a country. So the countries will continue to be responsible for interfacing with regulatory activities, policymakers, governments will manage the local dimension, but will be the ones that will strive to constantly optimize this portfolio balance -- this balanced portfolio. That's where value creation is -- has always been, but now we have to find it consciously because it is not going to be inertially moving as it has been in the past. It will be moved fast because this digital evolution of customers and their electrification will happen faster around us under our eyes. So now we have built a system that can cope with it, and we want countries to act on this. So while we do this, we will also simplify and rebalance our presence around the world. So we will continue to optimize the risk-return profile of the group. We will use funds and source funds in order to be balanced in the long run. The strategic rationale embedded in this capital rotation program is centered around a few simple principles: number one, focus on Tier 1 countries in order to take advantage of growth and the electrification trend that is manifesting in them; unlock resources for disposing -- by disposing of assets that are no longer instrumental to this strategy; opportunistic M&A deals to improve positioning, develop eventually new integrated position in new countries, acquire know-how, generate synergies; and financing our Stewardship development. Now where does all this lead us in terms of Net Zero? And you see there is a road here in a forest full of trees, which I think is just nice to see. But actually, we don't think we will go to Net Zero by planting trees. I want to assure you, okay? This is not our goal. We have previously committed to achieve Net Zero Emission by 2050. Because we have done quite a lot and we have studied quite a lot and we know what's going on with this electrification trend, we think it is much like -- much more likely that we achieve this target by 2040. This will be the year, in which we will reach Net Zero both from direct and indirect emissions. This is an advance of 10 years vis-à-vis last projections. Now we are also disclosing main strategic steps that we are going to implement as well as how this acceleration is going to further increase value creation in the company. This is a little bit -- yes. Now we have halved our direct greenhouse gas emission by 2017. So we already did a lot. Scope 1 emission have plunged from 414 grams per kilowatt hour, you see on the left-hand chart here in 2017, to 219 grams expected this year. In the short term, we are foreseeing a further 36 reduction from current level in 2024, which means that in '24, we will have a reduced Scope 1 emission 2/3 versus what we had in 2017. This is 7 years. So we confirm our 2030 target of 82 grams that we have certified with Science Based Target initiative which is, by the way, compliant to 1.5 degrees pathway. But finally and most importantly, we will reach full decarbonization by 2040 instead of 2050. The full decarbonization target is achieved by phasing out thermal generation to get to 100% emission-free by 2040. So we think we will not have thermal-generating plants by then. The phase out will continue to be coherent with the logic of adjust transition. So we don't expect to lay out people or do something traumatic to them. We just shift them to renewables. We expect the acceleration of the phaseout of our gas plants to 2040 to have a positive financial impact because the profitability of renewables is today undisputed in most countries where we are active. On indirect emission, all of our electricity sold will come from renewable energy. Therefore, another announcement, we will exit our gas supply business by 2040. Mind that, we plan to achieve all this without making use of carbon renewable technology or nature-based solutions. That's why I was making the joke about the trees, okay? We love trees. But in other words, what we're saying is that this target is more ambitious than the one we had before, not just because we put it in 2040 instead of 2050, but because this is a Net Zero, it's not a Net Zero carbon. It's a zero carbon target, okay? I want to stress this because this net word is a dangerous word. And behind it, you can see all kind of science fiction solutions. We don't rely on science fiction here, okay? We just stop emitting CO2. So these are how we think we can do that. First of all, we will ask Science Based Target initiative to certify all of our net zero carbon targets across all scopes in order to be, all of them, aligned to the 1.5-degree scenarios. And we have identified these actions that we intend to take in order to achieve these targets. This quantifying key element of the strategy with respect to major sources of emissions, including Scope 3. We align our future investment to our greenhouse gas emission reduction in 2040 net zero target. In short and medium terms, we think this will mean that we stick to the previously announced strategy to exit coal generation by 2027. Coal plant will be substituted by renewable generation or small gas plants to be located in sites where Enel today is present, in which today are needed in order for the networks to be sustained by their capacity. In the longer terms, also this gas generation will be phased out. As a result, and in combination with deployment of new renewal energy plant and batteries, 100% of our generation fleet will be represented by renewables in 2040. Now you understand why we put so many batteries in the plan. They are needed to get there. The carbonization of our generation will be coupled, as mentioned, with a push towards electrification. In 2040, we will exit the gas retail business. We will progressively incentivize our gas customers to shift to electricity, increasing the electrification rate. This will be made possible, thanks also to the services that Enel X is offering them. Furthermore, all our electricity sold to customers, either from our own sources or third parties, will come from renewable energy by 2040. Now let's see where value comes after all these is said and done. Strategy and action plan will drive and address our customers' needs towards the energy transition. Now we add 95,000 megawatts of capacity in the next 9 years. 9,000 megawatts in front of the meter storage and we will reach a total renewable capacity of more than 150,000 megawatts by 2030. Around 80% of the production will be covered by renewables and more than 85% will be emission-free. Reliable and safe delivery covers the networks, so we'll see the RAB going to 65 billion, more than 50% when compared to what we have today. We serve 86 million customers with a level of reliability sharply improving. So you see the SAIDI of 100, thanks to investment in quality and resiliency of networks. The increase in the rate of electrification of our client base will fuel our electricity sold, and in parallel drive additional needs of flexibility and value-added services that are synthetized in the lower part of this chart. How does that translate into value? You see here, we confirm the 2030 targets on EBITDA and net income growth. So it's a 5% to 6% growth in the period on the EBITDA side, and a 6%, 7% compound annual growth rate in net income over the same period. We think this is possible, and it is completely achievable. And also, this allows a simple policy dividend that is the one that we show you here. Last year, we shifted to simplicity, just putting simple numbers. So the numbers were EUR 0.38, EUR 0.40, EUR 0.43 per share. This time, we, of course, EUR 0.38 is gone, we put EUR 0.40, EUR 0.43, so we confirm them and we add 2040 -- 2024 guaranteed dividend of EUR 0.43. Let me underpin that this is implying a total shareholder return of 13% in the years. It underpins, at today prices, an average yield of around 6%. This results in a top-tier total return within the European utility sector, and we think it's a very comfortable message that we give to our investors because we have clear visibility on what we can achieve in the next 3 years, and Alberto will reinforce that. Thank you, Alberto.

Thank you, Francesco. And so my task now is to drive you in the next few years with 2 commitments. One is to show you that it is not an holistic plan. But in the first 3 years, we will -- so we have a target to do the most of what Francesco has just said. And second, so to drive you together with the new framework, and don't worry also the past one, so you make steps ahead on a new way to look at things and the old one. So then in the next years, so we will travel along this new concept of -- of the business that we will run. Okay. So first of all, capital allocation. We will activate -- so we will invest and activate EUR 52 billion in the next 3 years. As you see, we will increase our direct investments about 12% to EUR 45 billion. And as you see in the chart, these investments would be 94% aligned with the SDG target. You know that we work on SDG 7, 9, 11, contributing to the 13. So clean energy, sustainable cities, modern infrastructure and they are also then working on the climate action. That is, at the end, our core priority and also our business proposition for the next years. Then you know that we have also the new classification that is the EU taxonomy. That is still in progress. The last calculation for this investment plan is 85% of investments aligned. We hope that in the future, Europe will take into consideration the investments for the electrification of consumption and customers will have to be included in the taxonomy because it's the only chance to make a climate action is to work on customers because customer will electrify everything that they will use. Today, we are still in a gray zone. If we include it, we will exceed 90% and over on the investments on EU taxonomy aligned. Okay. So what we will do with this investment plan. On the ownership side, we will add the 19 gigawatts of additional renewable capacity. This includes 2 gigawatts of battery storage. And we will reach 69 gigawatts consolidated capacity. Then we will add 2 million of grid customers. This is an organic growth. Remember that we add, every year, roughly 700,000 customers mainly for the urbanization process in act in many countries in Latin America. And then we will -- we foresee a 6% growth in the total volumes of electricity sold to regulated, free, wholesale and PPA markets worldwide. We will reach 470 terawatt hour at the end of 2024. Within this 470, 90% will be sold in the Tier 1 countries that Francesco has mentioned before. Stewardship business model. We will deliver 8,000 of -- at the end of the period, so the joint venture will manage 8,000 megawatts. So we will add 4,000 megawatts in the JVs that we are running on renewables. We will add 4 million of grid customers. Here, the business proposition is to take some minority stake in some REITs, and then to offer funds and other that will own the state -- the asset, our global services made by great expertise made by [indiscernible] to manage the network. This is the business proposition that we have. And then to -- we will have a miscellaneous of things in the Enel X business because Enel X is running a big part of the business through the joint venture model. Electric buses is based fully on joint ventures. And on the other side, so the recharging points are half and half, sometimes we will own it, sometimes we will do it with joint ventures. Storage is the same. So the projection of the revenues that these joint ventures will do in this part of the business will increase 10x in 3 years. And at the end of this, we could say that in 2024, we will be in a much better position than today to benefit from the energy transition in act. When it comes to the ownership business model, we are going to invest EUR 43 billion -- around EUR 43 billion. And we will invest 60% in any green power in customers. So this is -- so the preposition we are pushing ahead and 40% in grid, these are the 2 main parts of the investment. We have 98% of the investments will be in the in Tier 1 countries, so almost everything. While 65% will be allocated to OECD countries within our Tier 1 countries. And this is an increase of 15% versus the previous plan. So we are allocating 50% more of investments in OECD countries within our Tier 1 countries. Then fast look on stewardship. Only to say that we will invest EUR 2 billion in equity injections and minority stakes acquisition in stewardship business model. And we will, so, are targeting that -- so we will attract investments of roughly EUR 10 billion. So our joint ventures with this EUR 2 billion and the stake of our partners will overall invest EUR 10 billion in the world, okay? Mainly, so you see that the vast majority will be focused on the offer of beyond commodity services, 56% will be devoted to this. Relevant is to stress 2 facts. One, that the EBITDA is EUR 1.2 billion, and the vast -- the 50% of this is the services that we will sell to the joint ventures because these joint ventures will buy from us services to run their own business. So this is one part. The second is the crystallization of value that we may do along these 3 years, selling on valorizing assets that we have within ourselves or valorize in some states in joint ventures in which we think that we may not stay any longer, so we will go to dispose certain assets. These are the other EUR 600 million. All in all, we foresee that these investments are running an equity IRR that is in the range of 20%. Now -- so I'm driving you on the global business lines, and we will start on Enel Green Power. Where you see that -- so in the period, we will invest EUR 19 billion -- around EUR 19 billion. And 93% will be devoted to the development of new plants because the maintenance investments are not so huge in renewable energy. And also, so we will start hybridizing our plants, so EUR 1.3 billion will be invested in the hybridization. Returns. In line with previous year, 200 basis points over WACC. And so this thanks to what Francesco has mentioned, so the huge pipeline, so the possibility to choose the best projects and so the optionality that we have in the business. These are standalone returns, okay? So value of those assets now so is higher when we consider a portfolio development within the new model. So right today in the 10 years of renewables, we were accustomed to look at every single project as a single investment. Now so in the new decade, in the integrated countries, we have to start to look at investments as our portfolio investments to serve the future needs of customers. In this case, you make the experience that the portfolio of investment in a specific country may have a higher return versus the single level of return of each single project. Looking at capacity, our asset base will grow from 54 to 77. We will add 17 gigawatts of renewable capacity, 2 gigawatts of battery storage and 4 gigawatts will be developed by our joint ventures. This is -- so our development program. And this is, say, visible, the best. And so you can see this in this chart because with respect to the 23 gigawatts, so that we have as a target, we have already addressed in execution 48%. So 11,000 of megawatts are already under execution. So we have a receivable target of 12. And if you look, the mature pipeline on the right of this chart. Only the portion related to the 22, 24, readiness of the pipeline is 55 gigawatts. We are working and running at 4.5x covering the [indiscernible] target. Okay. So last year, we had 3. So the level of coverage is exponentially growing. This will open to a lot of things that we may do. So clearly, the first is to choose the best projects to do it. Second, so we may also increase, if we don't need it, capability to sell projects and to create value also through saving projects that we think that are not fitting with our returns requirements, but not for others. And -- okay. So moving at how this renewable capacity will transform -- will change and how it will contribute to our path to net zero that we have outlined. You see here that -- so we will increase our production of roughly 50 terawatt hours in the next 3 years. So we will increase our production of 22%. Renewable will grow 64, okay, reaching 67% of total. While conventional generation will decrease by 13 terawatt hour. And here, the coal generation will account for less than 1% of the overall thermal generation. So it's going to finish in -- so year -- is already finished in '24, the 1% is nothing, then we will have to shut down plants, but shut down plants that don't produce is different to use them and to emit CO2. Sustainability of our generation portfolio will increase drastically. You see on the right of this chart, the share of emission-free production will reach 80%. And CO2 emission will decrease 35%, and we'll put it out in -- so the trend that we outlined before to reach our 2030 and our net zero target in 2040. Net worth. We will deploy EUR 18 billion of CapEx. This is an increase of 12% compared to the previous plan. And remember, it is an increase of 50% of what we had invested in the last 3 years, so we are increasing plan on plan. But if you take what we invest in, in the last 3 years, and this plan is 50% more. CapEx is fully allocated to Tier 1 countries because we are choosing here our countries, where the countries in which we have also the distribution business. And Europe is going to account 75% of the overall grid investments that we will do. Remember that it is also triggered by the PNRR funds that will be available for the next 5 years, and there are a lot of funds available to develop investment in grids in Europe or in the 3 countries in which we are, so Spain, Italy and Romania. Effort will be directed, you see in the center of the slide, mainly to increasing quality and resiliency. This because we are preparing our grids to accommodate this huge amount of electricity needed and also all the balancing that the grids will have to offer to sustain the new energy proposition. So you see here that 63% will be devoted to improving quality, 24% in new connection. This is relevant part of the investments. New connection is also designed that electrification is starting. So we are devoting a big amount of investments in new connection because we have to link all the new renewable plants. We have to link the distributed generation. We have to link all the charging station. We have to link -- we have to increase the capacity and the power of all the connection. This is a big, big world. So it's starting now that you see this amount going forward that increase further because it's the big chunk of investment in efforts. And then digitization, that is 15%. We have already made a huge effort on digitization, but we will go on in this. Our RAB will increase 14%, so reaching EUR 49 billion. And that we have a visible regulation for the plan period. And so we are on trend then to reach the EUR 65 billion we have in 2030. Remember that the RAB is accounting the investment we do with some delays. So it's not directly what you do in 3 years that you find it in the RAB at the end of the period. In terms of KPIs, say you see SAIDI so the KPI for the quality, so the duration of interruption. And this is going down, down every year. So now we have another 13% decrease in the next 3 years. You know that we are to -- a target to reach 100 in 2030, so this is the quality ratio that we are following. Digitization will step up 300 basis points, and networks will become more resilient, and so that will start to increase, as you see. Half of the overall increase we are projecting that we'll deliver in 2050, you understand that it's possible, the 570 is not the final number. So we like, a year, we will say every year, we will increase the 570 because if electrification will go that way, it's possible that networks will have to deliver more than 570 terawatt hours at the end of the period. Now integrated model. In the short term, so Francesco said double, but I say almost triple. So our target was almost triple 2.6 is under rounding on the 3. So our target is 2030, 2.6x is almost tripling the margin that we are having today. And the combination of the new strategy will make visible is in the Tier 1 countries already in the next few years. You see that our projection is to increase 1.6x this margin in the Tier 1 countries in the next 3 years. And this growth will be achieved thanks to things: one, maximization of revenues, okay? I know that in energy, revenues is a strange concept, but so it is a new concept of energy, maximization of customer revenues and the reduction in cost outsourcing, leveraging our investments in our asset generation -- in our renewable generation assets. That's an easy concept. Now we go into how we can do it. So first of all, increasing revenues. Our target is to almost increase by 30% the revenues we do with -- in the Tier 1 countries with our customers. This is electrification of consumption. This is commercial strategies. This is so increasing the level of service that we will sell. And everything that we'll do, we will act in this specific object. Second, we see a unitary revenues that is, right now, is the revenues per megawatt hour with the composition of commodity and services that will stay flat. With services, that will fulfill the reduction that we foresee in the commodity price that will happen in the market. Not so hugely evident in the next few years, clearly evident in 10 years. Energy prices will go down. This is the operative targets that we will act to increase revenues and to take the unitary revenues flat. On one side, 25% increase in volumes sold in the Tier 1 countries. And on the other side, you see how it has to be remarkable, the increase in the service sold to reach this objective. So you see how charging points will have to triple, how the storage behind the meter will have to be fourfold, demand response 2x and electric buses 6x. Then we may have others that you will be having in a nexus, but so everything in this will have to boom in the next 3 years, okay? This is how we will make this 30% increased revenues, keeping unitary revenues flat. On the other side, and remember, one very important point, customers remaining flat on revenues they pay will get 2 things important: one, a huge amount of services; and second, an overall saving on the overall energy spending because remember that on the overall energy spending, so electricity, gas, oil and everything you spend on energy, if you transfer everything on energy, with declining prices and services, you are paying the same on energy, but you are saving on the others. So at the end of this, customer will save more than 30% of the overall energy spending they are doing today. That's a proposition for them. Now second, we are working to reduce the cost of energy produced because renewable in the next decade is coming back to industrial things, not leverage, not TE, not everything that is related to IRR and TE and leverage they have to produce energy at the lower cost possible. That's the only proposition for the next decade of renewables. And that's what is written in this chart for us. We are working to increase the level of coverage of our energy sold from 60% to 65%. What is the other is the energy that we buy and we sell, okay? The white part is what we buy and we sell. So today, we are buying and resell 40% of energy. In 2024, we are buying every cell, 35% of energy less because we are covering with our production, what we said. And this is the trend we want to follow in the end. So this is a step. What we are assuming is that the energy that we buy and resell, in these 3 years will have a flat price. The purchasing price will be almost flat, okay? But the energy that we produce and we sell, we have a 23% reduction in the overall cost. These 2 things together, averaged, will drive a 15% reduction in the energy that we sell. So stable unitary revenues, 50% reduction in the unitary cost. It's all there, okay? And I'm finished. Okay. So then I will come back in a minute on the traditional way to look at it, okay? So it's a holiday. So now it's the proposition that this is over. I will come back to that info. And we will do EUR 0.08 on it in the next year. So we will take the 2 things together with an easy way to reconcile the 2 things, okay? Okay. Now another important point, simplifying and refocusing. We will use hugely the active portfolio management in the next 3 years, okay? So we will want to complete this simplification path. And we want to focus our activities only on selected countries, where we want to consolidate our integrated presence and grow further. So as we said before. So we will exit geographies that do not fit any longer with our strategy. Portfolio management will be instrumental also to unlock additional resources that will allow us to tap the growing energy transition opportunities. And so the huge amount of investments that the transition will ask. Next 3 years. M&A program is expected to rotate 7% of asset base. And we see, because of how we will use these resources and you see in the red part of the chart there, that using resources that way, we will have a neutral impact on EBITDA, but we are going to increase our net income of around EUR 300 million [indiscernible]. Okay. Now so we are in the traditional way. Don't worry. So EBITDA evolution is not [indiscernible] . So EBITDA will see a double-digit increase, and will reach a range of EUR 21 billion to EUR 26 billion in 2024. And business growth will account of EUR 5.4 billion. 80% will be attributable to Enel Green Power customers. You see so the 2 things speeded but putting together, as you have only 2, so deduct some little not Tier 1 countries, but at the end, so this is the final composition of 2 and EUR 1.2 billion on networks. And in fact, so I would say that if we look at it the lens of the integrated margin, we have EUR 4 billion of this growth of the overall growth -- sorry, the EUR 4 billion, the sum 80% will be levered. It will be reachable through the integrated business model I've shown you before. Delta perimeter here is expected to have a negative impact because we put the organic growth within the divisions, okay? In the previous slide, I said so I put it together in the founding strategy but here you have in the growth. And in this case, what we are going to dispose is bringing down EBITDA of around EUR 1 billion. Okay. Enel Green Power. 50% increase in EBITDA in the next 3 years. Renewable is the main driver. It will contribute around EUR 2 billion. And then so we've received EUR 700 million increasing for sale price and volumes. Volumes is nothing more than -- the fact that this year is a strange year. So we had a very, very huge impact on renewables. So we have a normalization of production, prices, you know better than me, what prices are happening in the annex, you see how -- what is the prices. We are hedging the new energy versus the prices we had in the previous plan, and it is clear that is a different scenario. Conventional generation is set to increase EUR 200 million. This is mainly related to the gas portfolio price, not the production. So you know that we have a gas position. Also in this case, prices are different. So it is something related to the gas position because we have lower revenues and EBITDA in terms of the reduction of the thermal generation production and the lower cost. So it's a sort of combination of reducing volumes but better gas prices. Production mix more skewed towards renewable will push EBITDA megawatt hour up 30%. And on the other side, we are still going on in reducing OpEx, and you see that OpEx per megawatt is going down 5%. Okay. Customers. So this strange color, but it is now the time to put together, so purple and blue. So 36% increase, reaching EUR 5 billion in 2024. We have already explained it, so the main drivers of this growth. If we look at the segmentation that we showed last year, we may say that sale of commodities will grow EUR 500 million on the back of increasing volume. And in beyond commodity, we are going to increase EUR 700 million associated with broader offering to our customers across all segments. B2C. B2C will contribute to the services' 40%. And so we have -- we are increasing private electric mobility charges by almost 5x. We will sell 2x maintenance repair contracts. We are selling a huge amount of these maintenance repair contracts, mainly focusing on electrification. And we will maintain our current market share in energy efficiency services in building where we have a very huge market share in the countries and they are doing this mainly in Italy, where we are, so a big upturn in this field. In business-to-business, that will contribute for 40% of growth. We will increase 60% the megawatt offered within demand response. And almost 4x increasing behind the meter installed. And finally, in B2G, so in the government. We have -- we increased 20% of our EBITDA, mainly related to the electrification of cities and so focusing on the electric buses that we are selling all around the world. The efficiency program in real terms will add EUR 200 million. And this is the result of the customer operation, global division. We said last year and now are delivering. So on a global level, a huge amount of efficiencies. And so you see OpEx per customer are set to decline 11%, though giving also the competitive advantage to the overall integrated offer if we're going to say [indiscernible] customers. Networks. 16% increased EBITDA, reaching EUR 8.7 billion EBITDA 2024. Main drivers, EUR 400 million in RAB on the back of higher level of investment deployed. EUR 200 million of efficiency, this is the other platform that is starting delivering, so the Grid Blue Sky platform. And here, we are projecting 10% reduction in watts per customer in grids. And then we have EUR 500 million related to increasing tariff due to inflation indexation. This is mainly a Lat Am way to -- on the regulation of Lat Am. And we foresee some WACC revision in Italy and Brazil. So following now also the last part of the discussion that we are having in Italy and also in some networks in Brazil. Okay. Financial management. We plan to drive FFO on net debt ratio up to 24% from 17% this year. Remember that 17% is not -- is a number that is affected by the government measures to calm the increase in the rise in the energy price. There are temporary actions that will be reabsorbed in the next year, but to date, 17% is not really significant value to take into consideration. So it will be restored to 24% in the next few years. Now this will contribute EUR 42 billion over the period. And on the other side, so we will take the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stable at 2.9x. And, so we will add on our resources, the EUR 7 billion coming from active portfolio management. And so taking the overall sources of EUR 51 million. Cash conversion is set at 70% on FFO, on the EBITDA to FFO in the next 3 years. This is our progress to sustainable finance. So we are very active in this, not only because we have reached 50% of sustainable instrument issued within our finance and also because we have invented a sustainable bond, and now it's on a mainstream. And now this year, we are reaching EUR 100 billion of emission. So I remember 3 years ago when we were alone issuing EUR 1.5 billion, so now it's a mainstream. So we are very proud of what is happening in the sustainable financial market. We do a lot of things. Remember that this year, we have run EUR 8 billion liability program, issuing sustainable in bonds instead of normal bond that we had. And so we have reached 2 years in advance, the 50% penetration that we had in 2023. So now we are having in 2021. And our path show how much it can be instrumental the support the organic growth of a sustainable company like we are, okay? So our aim is to progressively refinance all the upcoming maturities and sustainable instruments and to reach now in 2024. And I hope to exceed 65% and 70% in 2030. There are -- so like a year, so we think that every year we will increase this percentage because not with -- not only it's linked perfectly finance and our strategic purposes, but also because we are having money at lower cost. This is another value of sustainability, having money at lower cost because we are a sustainable company. And because of the sustainability of our business is also shown in the way we get returns and growth. And this is the result of the strategy in terms of cost of debt. In the next 3 years, we plan to refinance EUR 12 billion of outstanding debt. This debt is beating 3.5x -- 3.5% cost, and we are projecting to refinance it at 0.7. And this is related of what I said. So everything I said on sustainable finance and everything is seen here. We have -- you understand we may have a little increase in cost for the increase in debt that we have in the countries, mainly in Latin America countries, but the overall impact that we have is clearly shown on the right of this chart where you see that we are also targeting now to reach an overall cost of debt in '24, 2.9%, that is by far lower than what we said last year. So you see that the overall financial expenses with a higher debt will be lower than in the previous time. So you see -- sorry, we're lower than today. So today, we're paying 2.2. We are projecting to have with a higher debt, EUR 2 billion at the end of the period. This is the final outcome of all the long path of our financial strategy that we had in these years, okay? We are working on 80% of centralized finance. This is another important point. This is the way in which we may reduce the debt. So centralizing our finance and financing our countries directly from the center. Liquidity position. We are not in a hurry for everything. You see that we have EUR 22 billion of available liquidity, and that it's covering all the refinancing needs for the next 3 years. So no hurry and no problems at all in managing -- financially managing this company in the refinancing path. We have 80% of debt that is fixed or hedged through fixed interest rates. So we are not in a hurry and so we are not worried on any kind of increase in interest base that may occur in the next few years. Targets. The growing EBITDA will result into 2024 target ranging between EUR 21 billion and EUR 21.6 billion. This will translate in earnings CAGR in the period between mid- to high single digit. We confirm the dividend policy that we announced a few years back, providing an attractive and visible dividend per share, which underpins an average 6% yield over the plan period at current price. Our projecting earnings grow together with the just mentioned implied dividend yield will generate a compelling 13% yearly total return. I'm finishing here, Francesco, the floor is yours and also the run the machine.

So you know the closing remarks, typically. This doesn't work anymore. Typically, it takes -- all right, here we go. They are quite simple to wrap up. But I want to underline that we think this is a little bit of a pivotal strategy presentation. We've gone through many of them, okay? This one really marks a little bit of a big change that we need to emphasize because, as I said, it's not totally understood completely by everybody. We have built today a stronger player in renewable energy capacity worldwide. We know that Enel Green Power was assembled, was set on course, was really growing to become the backbone of generation going forward in an acceleration that has been progressed and continues to progress. This happened last decade. This is the decade of renewable energy. Then we have discovered the power of digitalization throughout the company. We have assembled what we call or consider the key building blocks that we need to have in order to get a firm grip on the opportunities of the next decade, this electrification trend. So today, we have 2 networks, the networks and the global customer business line that we have put together. As fully digitized platforms, they will enable us to take advantage of this huge really big chance that we have. And we also told the countries, "Guys, use these tools. They're simple. They need to be used consciously, not unconsciously as the industry has done so far," I would say, not just us. So we think that this journey of transformation that we started 3, 4 years ago, looking at what was going on has enabled us to be ready at the right time. This is now. We think that this customer integrated model design that we just described to you relies on these foundations, on these solid foundations and will support a more focused and more intense value creation and growth while reducing largely the risks that are still in the industry. And this example that we have in this prices explosions, it's just a spectacular demonstration of what risks remain in this industry that we need to remove from our story. The evolution of the organization will accelerate this change. So we will be able to take full advantage of this and becoming more data-driven will improve our decision-making and we'll make it more close to where the value is -- close to customers. The efforts will result, as I said, on bringing forward our zero target to 2040, cutting also the Scope 2 and Scope 3 reductions that will need to be there. Let me underline, a total return of 13% is there, and this is a very important point because what we are doing here sets the stage for the 13% to be absolutely rock solid. Is there upside? I mean, I know this is a question that will come up. We'll see, but 13% is there. So the visible return to shareholders is confirmed, and it is derisked progressively. So let's go and do it for the next 10 years. Thank you very much.

Okay. Thank you, Francesco. Thank you, Alberto. I'm back again. Now we open the Q&A. We have a little bit of a mixed organization today. So just to be -- to put a little bit of order, I'll take the questions from the room first, and then we will move to the analysts connected via web. And we have a hard stop at 12:30, so try to be strict with the 3 questions too, please, okay? So I'll start with Alberto. Alberto, stand up, please, you can take off your mask.

It's Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs. Now I'm going to look weird reading some of the stuff. So thank you for the presentation. It's very thorough. First question is on the dividend. Can you run me through the logic for actually stopping growth in 2024? I see the 13% total return. But from the financial section, the actual metrics, the below 3x net debt to EBITDA, it would appear that you might still be able to grow the dividend going forward. And I wonder if you're starting to see yourself more as a -- almost merchant integrated player by then, and therefore, you're thinking we're going to go more for growth and less for income versus the traditional utility business model. The second one is fascinating discussion on the integrated EBITDA of our CapEx margin. So as I understand, in your targets, you're leaving about 200 basis points of walking green power. You are then ascribing the value to the customers. So I guess the question is, is this increasing? Of course, it's maximizing the return. But is this increasing the risk profile of Enel and of a traditional utility? Because essentially, you're walking away from the traditional auction model where you were going to an auction to be assigned a megawatt. And now you're just actually -- potentially you don't have much of a cut. You can build as many megawatts in your own countries because you still have the 35% unhedged longer customer position. But does that mean that the risk profile now is changing completely of renewables and customers together is going up? Because essentially, what I'm thinking here is that your procurement cost is going down, but your revenues will be a function of a wholesale power market as long as it exists. So what I'm trying to get to here is that we have a downturn in commodities that integrated EBITDA of a CapEx might go to [ 10% ]. And in a commodity booming, we may go to 25%. And so I mean, if you can comment on that. Is it completely silly? Or am I seeing it the right way? Last one, forgive me. Capital allocation. It didn't come up today. I think, today, I saw a very consistent and coherent plan, but we've been reading about and looking at fiber optic in Latin America. At the moment, perhaps capital markets don't really like incremental emerging market exposure, given it was the source of the earnings troubles in '21. And we've been reading about almost like a fintech payment company interest. Now all of these things may be in the EUR 1 billion to EUR 2 billion range, which individually are very small for -- versus your asset base. But isn't that taking -- is it part of a bigger picture? Or what's the rationale? Because it looks almost a distraction, whereas there are regions where you have a big renewable presence, not enough customers, no networks, the United States, just to say a name, like a huge avenue of growth. So I wonder if we should now expect some of those smaller transactions? Or are those one-offs? And then there is a greater picture.

Okay. Let me try to answer. First of all, in the order of the question, dividends. Before we get to '24, we have to go through at least another 2 of these sessions, right? So just -- I want to underline this because this is no more, let's say, a dividend driven by a formula but driven the opportunity in the -- let's say, clarity of outlook that we have. So don't take it as a way of giving a signal of uncertainty or, let's say, a mean -- or a cap or whatever. We just said, if we maintain the 13% return, what would be the dividend by '24? That's how we calculated it. So let me tell you that, say, a year from now, if we have the 2022 strategic presentation and therefore, '24 will be the midyear, we might change the number. But not down, up, if the opportunity is there. So that's the message we try to give, right? And then the reason why we're not doing it right away is because this is a trend that breaks with the past. This electrification trend is really new. We understand it. We're ready for it. We try to manage it, but it's new for everyone. So we think it can be much better or a little lower or whatever. But 43% is for sure there. So consider that a minimum, okay? Now on the integrated business model, is it increasing the risk profile? We think it is not because if you look at it this way, as we are today with our thermal generation and our customers, we have an exposure upstream and downstream. So how many customers will stick with us? What kind of prices we're going to face on the commodity? So just -- if we just don't change the percentage of hedged power with the customer base, but subdue thermal with renewables, we cut the upstream exposure already. So the risk profile intrinsical is lower. Then if we want to increase the percentage of renewals that serve the basis of customers, we put them in a much safer box. Because in order for someone to come and get customers from us, they need at least to have the same generation costs. And renewables are very, very competitive at this point. So overall, we think this is a reduction of risk exposure, right? Because we don't see the wholesale prices anymore that important going forward. And this is just -- imagine that we do have always a hedged position on wholesale prices. Even if they go up like crazy as they did before, we're hedged anyway for the transient. So who is hedging us? Our customers. They're the -- so that's what we tried to put together. On the CapEx allocation, let me just tell you that you should not be concerned. I cannot be more explicit than that on the fiber optic in Latin America. You know that we have successfully concluded the transaction in Italy. We think there will be some successful news also on that front, not in the direction that you mentioned, okay, the opposite one in Latin America, but not be more explicit. The other transactions are basically pieces of the puzzle that we put together around this customer strategy and nothing else. So fintech is there on a stewardship basis just because it's something instrumental to the transactions and due to transition of customers that we try to get. There's nothing more than that. And I think it's clear that we are going to refocus a lot on those huge opportunities of integration on the value chain. So yes, there is space for something that will assemble a more integrated position in geographies where today we're not integrated.

A couple of things on this one is to stress the fact that everything that we will do will be within. So I'm not saying that we are doing fintech or fiber optic, but so the overall amount of CapEx, we will invest in this, it is within the EUR 2 billion we set. Everything will -- this is the financial commitment that we have to doing all the stuff, all other kind of ventures. This is the stewardship business model. Second, I think relevant is in the new perspective. Ask yourself how much our cost of energy sold has increased because of the math we are living. Do you think it's high? The overall cost of energy sold is almost nothing. That's the new risk effect of the perception. They will say prices are related to the fact that someone has to buy energy to resell to customer. And so it's exposed to volatility. Not us. We have an average cost of energy sold that is stable. That's why. So we exit the problem of Spain. We exit the problem of Spain because we showed the government that we are not following, I will say, price in our commercial strategy. We're setting prices to customers that are fixed because our cost of energy sold is almost stable. That's a new proposition.

Were they all taken, Alberto? Okay, they were clear on that. Okay, Stefano. Stefano Bezzato.

Stefano Bezzato, Credit Suisse. Three questions for me as well, if I may. The first on your acceleration in renewable growth. You're planning now 23 gigs, if I remember correctly, for the next 3 years for probably this year. Do you see any headwind from cost inflation, supply chain bottlenecks? And how do you plan to address those? The second question, given it's been a point of debate over the last 12 months, can you clarify in this plan what are the FX assumptions that you are taking? Is it spot? Is it -- what is the assumption? And lastly, you're showing the bridge of EBITDA between 2021 and 2024. Can you help us with the bridge between 2021 and 2022 targets at the EBITDA level?

Yes. Let me just answer the first question and then Alberto will take the other two. There is, as you saw, a jump between 3,100 to 5,000 megawatts. That is what we end up probably during this year, megawatt 5,000 -- 4,999 or whatever, but that's going to be the number. And this in a year that has been probably much more difficult than expected because of congestion of logistics worldwide. So harbors are in a very messy condition around the world. Tensions on prices due to raw materials and shortages here and there on critical components, and pricing pressure from -- resulting from the combined effect of these 2 things. We think this will probably extend through half of '22, but then slightly -- will gradually ease as the systems will find their equilibrium. So if there would be none of that, we would probably put down 5,500 megawatts. So you can say there are 500 megawatts that will not make it in December this year, we'll make it probably in January or February '22 or March maybe. So that's just to give you a signal. The delay -- the slowdown effect of this kind of super congested and tight system, okay? Price-wise, there has been a pressure due to the commodities and the raw materials. But overall, the impact is in the range of 5% overall, okay? And again, we think this is not new. It has happened in the past before with panels and other components. So it's significant if you have not a long-term purchasing view. I mean if you don't see this coming or you don't buy routinely larger amounts, yes, you can find yourself trapped into cannot find a container, the price has gone up 20% because you're the only -- you have only one seller and you come late into the game. We are a little bit of this. Let me tell you. We are hit somehow, but it's not as big as people think. So again, if the -- in a scenario in which, for example, there would be an incredible confrontation with China so that everything coming out of China cannot be purchased, then it's different, okay? But we're not in this right now.

FX. You have in the next is Page 83. What is the outcome of our -- the targets with the spot scenarios that is in the mid high range of what we are showing today, okay? So the spot price today, we are in the mid high level of the range. Bridge '21, '22, so I would say we have EBITDA, yes. So we have roughly -- so generation and retail together is EUR 1.8 billion, and it comes from roughly 1.3 renewables, 500 customers and 1.1 is distribution. This is the main outcome of the result of 2021. Then you have composition of open fiber this year that is not the next year, but so the operating growth is overall roughly EUR 3 billion splitted in the way I said.

Next, Roberto.

Robert Letizia from Equita. So my questions -- the first question speaks on the retail and the electrifications and the increasing demand. I was wondering how much you believe is exogenous or endogenous to your company driving the electricity demand? Because you're making a bet, but probably one of the main drivers that put up the electricity demand, it comes from the policymaker or from incentive or external factor that you cannot probably manage. So is this a risk to your point on the increasing demand? And I was wondering how do you match the increasing electrification process with the indication of a very little increase in demand for electricity that you projected into the main areas? I see in the annexes that the increasing demand is 1% in Europe and not a very big demand throughout the plan. Is it more a market share increase that you're actually seeing in the short term? And still linked to this element, but if you're actually increasing the value of the service provided to the customer, but still increasing the margins? Actually, it implies that the value provided is lower than the saving you are getting on the energy cost. But I was wondering if this value is not that high, is not competition probably going to capture a significant part of this benefit because focus on client will perhaps drive higher competition of their clients on values that are not that significant? So can you compose this puzzle a little bit? What about Lat Am. So you left us last time with some intention on the Lat Am, which fits to the strategy of disposing, I guess, some areas. Can you spend a little bit more on what's going to happen over there? And yes, in the plan, how much of the EU Green deal and resiliency and relaunch funds actually you included in terms of contribution to EBITDA?

Okay. Let me go through the first question, and then Alberto maybe you can take the other two. I think it's a very good question because we have -- there is a combination of 2 forces. Is it endogenous? Is it exogenous? Are you pushing or are the customer pulling? Basically, that's what your question is. What about the importance of policies and regulation in all this? Thinking that can we move customer behavior? I think it would be crazy if we think that we can really push electrification like that. What we have seen is that it is creeping in already. It's starting to show on one hand, even if there are no real conscious policies to do that. There are indirect policies to do that. So if, for example, if you take the -- in Italy, this sismabonus and superbonus, this is a push for electrification. It's not written. It's not in the intent, but it is directly resulting in electrifying buildings. If you look at what current manufacturers are doing to cope with the CO2 stringent limits they have, they are pushing electric cars into the mix. Otherwise, they cannot cope with CO2 limitations on their fleet. So then it's not an explicit result -- aim, but it's indirect result of that. Then the question is why isn't demand booming in this scenario? Because, on the other side, you have another push on efficiency of electricity use, which is a trend that we have seen already in the last 5 years. So there is a dent in demand of electricity that comes from the more efficient things that are coming to the market, refrigerators. Anything is more efficient than it was before. So that works into demand, too. So in one end, you say -- you can say there is a conservative assumption that we're making that this huge electrification does not multiply in a big way the electricity demand as a whole, but basically comes at the expense of fossil consumption of energy, so displacing gas basically and oil or gasoline, if you want, from other sectors, okay? But more or less mitigated by the more efficient use of electricity that is coming along with increasing digital transformation of things. So it's a conservative assumption. And to that end, it's also conservative that we maintain a position in which you can only compete if you provide services that are competitive. So you cannot bet on what happened years and years ago. Companies saying, my service business would boom and drastically change the nature of our EBITDA. Yes, they will grow. They will be value-driven, but there will be a lot of other people doing it, too. By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with people switching customers out of gas into electricity even if they're not our customers. It's just good for everybody. So we have also a conservative view of the commercial value of the services we provide and give them the right -- what we think is a conservative view of what money we can make out of them provided that we don't have a big barrier of entry, if not the technology platforms and the stuff that people can assemble maybe a year or 2 later, but they finally get there. So our is a view of, say, progressive displacement of fossil fuel-driven energy to the benefit of enlarging the electricity field for everybody, including us. And that's the view that we presented today. So competition will be there.

On P&L.

On Lat Am.

Okay. On Lat Am. So what is going on in Lat Am? So on business side, you say -- you know that now Lat Am is out of the drought. This is now still affecting Brazil and Chile, and this is saving in 2021 some different impacts between Chile and Brazil. And in Chile, we are having an economical impact -- economical and financial impact because of -- so prices are in the sky. And there is -- so there were because now it's a little bit different. We are no gas and no rain, and this was the problem that -- so we didn't be able to produce with our thermal plants because of missing gas. So we had to buy at very high prices to serve the PPAs. So this is the Black Swan 2021 chemical growth. Now it's going to be coming back to normal. Gas from Argentina is coming back. And on the other side -- so now the level now is not a normal level, but it's not the problem that we had this year. Brazil is the same, but Brazil, the problem is really to distribution business because distributors have to buy at the higher prices to serve customers. And the regulation says that you are getting back your money not the year in which we have to spend, but 1 or 2 years after. So it's only mainly a financial impact. But the regulators is working. Like last year, worked around the COVID, the Cuenta COVID money. Now they are working on another package to give money to distributors in Brazil, took over this financial problem. We have big shoulders, we need it. But other distribution companies in Brazil, without this, so will not survive because they have no financial strengths to go forward this problem. This is the main impact that we are having in Latin America, operationally speaking, on the other side, so demand is growing -- is going up and all the other stuff are good. Regulators are -- So in a period of nothing on the radar screen. And so the liberalization of the market is good. It's going up and up. So we are working. We have relevant market share in the 3 markets -- in the part of the free markets that now is growing in these countries. And also Enel X is picking up with services in most of the countries. This is on the operational side. Related to extraordinary activities, now we are in a phase of having reached 83% of Enel Americas. Is -- now we have to define the next steps. So we are now in the step of integrating Enel Green Power to renewable energies within the overall business. And this is a step we have to do because of what we said before, we can take renewable energy out of the integrated business. So we are in the process to do it. We have already completed the reorganization of Colombia, which now we have put together the 2 companies we had there, so generation and distribution. And we also put there all the Central America activities. We have reached a new agreement with our partners. Now we own 57% of the only company that is working around this. So Colombia is set the way. Chile is stable, and so it's working on exiting this growth problem. And so what we think we will do is, now after having done this, to sit with our partners within Enel Americas and to define together what may be the best next asset it may do in so the simplification of our activities there. P&L. One very point to say you note that P&L has a huge amount of pockets. So there are pockets that are related to us on what we do. So there are all the money that will be spent in the energy transition. Others are not pertaining to us. Having said that, and within the money, we have 2 different ways to look at them. One is what is going to be spent to enhance the demand? And other is, what is going to be spent to increase infrastructure and development? We are working on both of 2 because you know that increasing demand is exactly what we need to foster the activity of Enel X and also the joint ventures that we have. So then money will flow directly to joint ventures, but joint venture will increase the demand for services from us. I mean so I'm talking about, I don't know, money for electric buses in Italy and Spain. If the money will be, we will act through joint ventures that will take the money, but they will buy electrical services to us. So it's the way in which a part of this money will flow into economy and so into our business. On the direct side of the -- so the direct investments, we see the programs are different country to country. I don't know in Spain, you have an incentivation in storage that you have not in Italy, to make an example. So in every country, we have to tailor the way the country want to act and so our investments. Having said that, we foresee only on this side, not on demand side, roughly EUR 5 billion to EUR 6 billion that we may be delivered through the P&L in the overall period of the P&L, this is 2022, 2027. Out of this EUR 5 billion, we are projecting for the first 3 years because 2022 will be a take-up period. We are taking roughly 40%, 45% of the overall amount. What we think is that it's maybe possible that it's going to increase, because we think that we have an easy way to invest and spend money, mainly through distribution business. Because it's under concession, because it's easier to deploy money, because grids are -- need a lot of investments in the next year. So this is the amount we think that is sure that we will spend. It's possible that it's going to be increased. And on the other side, we think that every increase in demand, also not tracked by us, will lead to an overall increase in the demand of the services that we are selling. This is another benefit that we may do.

Is there any XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX in the plan for this fund usage?

Well, so taking account that the funds will be deployed to bring projects at the sort of normal level of return, okay? So one side, they are enabling projects that now are so in the normal range of return. That is one side. Other side is related to networks, where here you get some -- so you may get some premium to invest money because this money -- are some money that are not allowed to have any of the remuneration because I also spent by the brands. But to create an establishing machine, they may invest EUR 5 billion under this project. You have to have a huge amount of operation in place. That's why we are talking about. So everyone is talking about some premium that you can get on the investments that you will do through brands, and this will flow directly into an EBITDA increase. On the other side, investing in networks is also reducing cost. And all this part will bring an additional EBITDA because investment that you don't spend in terms of financially speaking, you are getting some advantage in terms of OpEx. So at the end, all this stuff will bring an increase in EBITDA, together with the increase in demand and that will bring the increase of the EBITDA related to services we are going to sell. If you see next year and also in 2023, we have a big business in the building energy efficiency. It's a very, very big business in terms of EBITDA. That is already established. We have already a pipeline. We have already a contract signed is only a way to deliver it. And every year that you will increase the time in which you're working on it, so we are actually doing a huge amount of EBITDA. This is what I'm saying, the stimulus to demand. Demand is on buildings, and we are working in this kind of business very proactively in Italy.

Next, Harry.

This is Harry Wyburd from Bank of America. So I've got 3. First one is on net debt. So obviously, there's been quite a material increase, but it's mostly recoverable based on what you mentioned. So I wondered if you could give us a bit more color on how you're going to recover it and when? And in particular, for 2022, could you give us some guidance for net debt in 2022? Or maybe give us some color on where you are now versus where you are in your original plan on 2022? So I'm trying to get out is this increase, is it going to be recovered in Q1 next year, Q2 and where are we going to end up at the end of next year? Second one is on supply and customers. I think I get the logic on the 2.6x increase in integrated margin. And I guess it's high volumes, lower cost to serve and lower input costs on cheaper renewables. But how confident are you that you can capture all of the benefit on the lower input costs and the lower cost to serve when you've got governments marauding around trying to reduce energy prices? Obviously, you have competitors. So do you have a strong enough competitive moat to stop those benefits, which you pretty clear on lower input costs being competed away or expropriated by governments? And maybe just very specifically on that in Italy, I guess, has long been this idea to reform or liberalize fully the market. Obviously, you've got bigger increases in energy costs in Italy. How are you feeling on the outlook for Italy? I mean the U.K. is looking at reforming default tariffs. Spain's reforming its regulated tariffs. Do we have a reform in Italy on the menu potentially? And could that sort of impact your ability to capture this increase in integrated margin? And then the final one is on grids. And I kind of -- this is a sort of high-level question, but my perception is we've had a frenzy of interest on upstream generation, right? Offshore winds or seed, you had arguably a bubble in January. You've got a frenzy of focus on downstream sort of consumption, so EVs, Tesla, et cetera. We haven't had a frenzy on how you deliver the energy from upstream to downstream. And I noticed that you've got a 30% increase in European grid CapEx. So my question is, are we -- do you think we're on the cusp here of actually maybe grids being the standout area? Or we see CapEx upgrades now over the next 5 years? Is the industry doing enough to connect this surge in generation and the sort of surge in demand from electric vehicles, or heat pumps, or et cetera? Are we doing enough on grids? And maybe final one, what are the return spreads on grids, because you're guiding to short-term 200 bps on renewables, 150 bps in the long run? But what's the equivalent IRR spreads on your grids? Thank you. Sorry for the long question.

Okay. Maybe let me take the number 2 and 3 questions. So the supply stuff and the networks. And then Alberto, maybe you can work on the debt and also the return on networks, which by the way is very -- I think we will see the same -- anyway, we will see the XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX of the return on networks way beyond the regulated portion. But this is maybe too early for this discussion today. Maybe in the next years, there will be another presentation focusing on the value extraction out of networks on top of what the regulated returns are there, but maybe not for now. Now on supply customers, I think it's reasonable to be concerned that, given the present situation, governments might be tempted to put their hands in pockets of people and trying to cope with the situation. But I should say that what happened in Spain and how it was taken back by the same government explains maybe more clearly than words that there are things in Europe that you can do and things you cannot do. And that's maybe the big value of being in this part of the world. I mean we have some basic concepts around the fact that regulation cannot be retroactively changed to some extent, and that things that have been sold cannot be unsold and resold another time without some consequence, which is basically what the Spanish government tried to attempt, and they failed. And we have gotten from the commission and EU, the toolbox with which governments can play without infringing these rules. And there are many ways in which this can be achieved without messing with basic market rules. So that is why when we put -- to answer also to Stefano Bezzato's question before, when we look at the value you can extract out of this electrification trend, you have to be realistic that you cannot abuse the system. You have to be realistic about the value you can extract out of this to be sustainable. I use this word maybe too much, but on the long term. So not to be completely taken back later on saying, you guys really went heavy on that, so maybe stop it. So that said, I think that the way in which we can be consistently confident that we can be the low-cost producer are basically 2. One is already at hand. We have digitized the platform. We know that we have in front of us a reduction of cost to serve, which is sure, okay? It's a question of doing it. Nothing else. There's no uncertainty. It's all in our control. Yes, there will be redundancies, but we know that we will need people to do a lot of other things. So we are not concerned at all that we don't know how to do it. We know how to do it because we have now the tools to do it. So that's one part. The other part is, of course, the supply end. So can we build renewables fast enough to fill this gap? And the question there is, yes, in Spain, for sure. Maybe a little less certain in Italy because the inertia of the system is longer, but it's starting to ease off. So you will see '22 much better than '21. I know because we have the projects already authorized. So Italy is just a little later, but it will pick up, and it will pick up in a different way. So less big plants, a lot more smaller plants. And that leads me to the second point of yours, third, actually, the networks. Why it's not there a frenzy of networks? I think it's a mistake, there should be. I think regulators need to understand they cannot have the changes they want in the energy policies of their countries without allowing more returns, more investment in networks, in electricity networks, not gas networks. So we think that the PNRR, at least in the countries where we are, is a huge opportunity because it bypasses this contingent problem. With PNRR, all caps to investments are broken. So you can put my network much more -- in a much more focused way and it's for us a big opportunity. So it's no surprise that most of our PNRR investments are on networks, because it's a way to bypass the limitations that today you face and prepare the networks for what you just said, yes, they will be stressed. On the demand side because of customers asking more stuff, charging points and you name it. On the supply side, because there will be much more renewables at medium and low voltage level. So we need to rework our networks. And I think if you look at countries, how they act on it, you will see the results 5 or 10 years down the road. Those countries that don't do it, they will stop. They will really have a problem. So for us, it's tantamount. It's maybe luck that we are in Italy and Spain that got most of the PNRR. So until 2026, we have our hands full, and that we will take the most that we can during these years, on the returns on networks and then on debt.

Well, return on networks, I would say. So it's clearly depending on one side on the capital allocation you have. First of all, so you have -- we have now -- we are an average WACC in all the countries in which we are. So the average with -- waiting with the investments we do and the RAB we have that is in the range of 6%. This is the average WACC. We work at 150 to 200 basis points over because of all the other stuff related to efficiency, premium on quality and all the other things in the regulated. So it's more or less to what is the return on -- so our IRR may be -- made by composing these 2 steps. This is a project IRR for sure. So you have -- because then you have a different leverage. In equity, IRR will be different. But on a project level, we work around 8% this or 100 basis points our WACC. Net debt. So first of all, with this plan in 2030, the stock of debt will go up. Keeping together our dividend policy and the investment, we have to do -- we will have an increase in the stock debt. So 2.9x EBITDA, 24% FFO net debt. It's enough, it's okay, or it's too high. So we have to focus on one thing, stock or ratios. If you look what is our outcome 2024, 24% FFO net debt, 2.9x net debt to EBITDA. That's -- so I think one of the best proposition in the field of financial ratios. When it comes off the projection, remember that -- I would say this, we are projecting -- versus the old plan, we are projecting to increase the investments of EUR 5 billion versus the previous plan, while we are projecting to increase the debt versus the previous plan of around EUR 3 billion. So at the end, it is going to increase the level of debt, keeping the ratio steady. But all the financial management we do, together with the asset rotation and everything, is keeping the level of debt lower than the increase that we have -- we are having on investments.

Enrico?

Enrico Bartoli from Stifel. My first question is regarding your Slide 26, when you like this EUR 75 per megawatt hour flat revenue that you expect from now to 2030. If you can share with us how you expect the contribution from the energy component and the value-added service component to move to the end of the decade? And how you took into account possible competition also on the other services that you expect to keep this figure flat? Second question is related to Iberia. I see that you target EBITDA of EUR 4.6 billion by '24. I guess that most of the growth is related to expansion of the integrated margin. If you can share with us your view on these projections? And how you took into account the regulatory changes that were approved in Spain recently? And the last one is related to the funds. If you can provide some details on this EUR 7 billion cash-in that you expect from the asset rotation? I guess, that part is related to Open Fiber, but in which areas or countries do you expect to have a contribution to this figure?

Alberto?

Well, first of all, on integrated margin, so this 7 point -- this flattish -- average revenue is flattish, now is flattish also. So we foresee it flattish in the next year. So the strategy is to take it flattish for the next 5 years. So coming to what is going to be -- why it's going to be flattish in the next few years, is because we think that they will -- took a little bit higher level of services per megawatt hour sold. It's not a clear measure because it's better -- it would be better to say the service per customer. But we will reach it. Now we are using megawatt hour, that is not the exact measure to say how much services we are selling, but okay. So it's the way we look at it. So now we are selling EUR 6 per megawatt hour, more or less. It's the number that we have today. We are also working now to have EUR 9 per megawatt hour in 2024, okay? On the other side, for the next years, we will see a flattish price for energy. This is not the same when it comes to the end of the period. in which we foresee, in real terms, a 30% decrease in price for energy, real terms. Nominal terms is roughly 15%, okay? But real terms will be 30%. While so we are foreseeing to have -- so doubling the level of price service sold per megawatt hour at the end of the period versus 2024. These are the components that will take the unitary revenues flattish in the period. As said before, we foresee on the other side that while the combination of the cost of energy sold, and I'd say the combination of the cost of energy and the service -- the variable cost of service together, this is going to go down in the next 3 years of around, say, EUR 6 versus what is today. But it's set to be almost out at the end of 2030 because of the development of renewables that we are projecting. So that's a way in which we may offer savings to customers on the overall energy spending, increasing level of services that they buy with the same price they are paying. And on the other side, to have us increasing our integrated margin because of the reducing cost of energy that we sell. This will bring us also in a way that we can manage also the competition because everything is set to go down, the cost of production, the cost to serve to customers. So -- and so it is going to stabilize prices. So we have a big shoulder also to front competition. And remember that there is a point relevant in this strategy that is, how much we can sell without producing? That's a valid point. So our production strategy and an integrated strategy allows you to sell more than you can do without having your own production or you can stay on the market selling 400 terawatt hours without producing one. What is the limit? What is the risk after this? You can sell more because you have not -- you are not backed by your production. That's the point. That is a competition point. At many times, so if you don't produce, it's difficult that you get -- this other level of commercial capability that the electrification will ask. EUR 7 billion. As said, we are projecting to recycle EUR 10 billion of money coming from asset rotation into 2 tasks. EUR 7 billion will be -- will finance the organic growth. So will finance the investment we are doing. EUR 3 billion will finance some -- the EUR 2 billion of stewardship investment we are projecting plus. So some -- so they will need to rearrange and to simplify further some countries in which we are. Well, the program is splitted in 2 main steps. One is to exit some assets on some business within some countries that are not so now deemed to be fitting our strategy on one side. And the second is also valorizing some assets that we have within us. So you will see us selling some assets, creating joint ventures that will do 2 things. One will valorize the asset we have within; and the second, we'll establish a new joint venture, then so we'll act as a single company and will buy services from us. So these are the 2 main parts in which we will follow this program. And the last one was on Spain. Well, Spain, you have -- so at the end of the period, so I'm projecting this EUR 4.6 billion. Well, the vast majority is -- are not -- so I say, are not on retail at the end. So retail is -- so the integrated margin is overall is something that they will keep on having but the vast majority of Spain is also on the new scenarios so that they are working on [indiscernible] and prices and other. Through this stuff, I would say that we are now taking out completely the gas clawback because gas clawback now is almost out because it's a temporary measure. So we have now shown to the government that we are not taking any advantage in the price spike because we have -- we are working under as a fixed contractor. Now we are following what is going on the CO2 clawback. It's not clear though. So you understand what is the -- because on the mandatory auction, it depends on the floor price, but so we are keen to offer energy at a good price or also a decent price in fixed option. The problem is so on CO2 clawback, not because at the end it will be the same mechanism of gas clawback. But so we are looking at this potential floor price that is going to be set. It is not touching a lot what we have in our assumptions because it depends. But so around the range that now they are talking about, it is not impacting a lot in the -- at the end of the plan, it may have some impact already in the numbers we have if they set a floor along the next 2 years. If they don't set it, we may have an upside versus the numbers that we are showing in Spain.

And Emanuele?

Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux. The first one is if you could add more color on the acquisition and also as regards to -- you mentioned your business and your activities, for example, in the last few weeks, it was [indiscernible] on payment company -- active in the pending system issues out of scope of your current business, in my opinion. And the second one is on your strategy, what is your strategy on to valorize the renewable assets in Latin America and in North America? So are you planning a listing in Brazil and also for North America -- for North America for the renewable assets?

The payment business is attached business to many of our digital platforms going forward. You can imagine that today, for example, if you look at the value lost in all the payments attached to our bills, lost to third parties that manage digital payment platforms is a pity. People pay our bills through the platforms. And we ask ourselves why is it that this value has gone somewhere else instead of partially going back to us? If you look only at that, and you can imagine the number of people that are paying our bills. You see the value at hand. It's not anything particularly difficult to see. If you look at the fact that we will have millions of cars charging privately or publicly around the world, using our networks, using our services, our charging stations and maybe paying through a payment platform of somebody else and you ask yourself, why is it? Why should I not be there? So it's, I would say, quite in line because what we deal with is the multiplicity of touching points with customers that today are not fully used, not fully exploited. And so in that sense, we think this is something that makes -- adds value, gives also -- adds retention flavor to our customer interface and gives also, I would say, more functionality to customers interfacing with us. So because we have digitized all the other platforms we have now, we can easily use these tools and extract more value out of our relationship with customers. But again, this will be not a consolidated deal. It's just, I would say, a way of enlarging our touch points with customers going forward. In that sense, it's fully in line with our views. On the value that we can -- this is on the selling side, I guess the other question, are you going to sell renewables going forward to put value around? Yes. We said always that in those parts of the world where we don't have or cannot have an integrated position across the value chain once we have developed, built, derisked the assets, it might make sense to sell and crystallize value. So you will see us doing that. Yes, definitely. Where this position is not possible? So Mexico, for example, we did it. We did it in -- we have a joint venture that we developed in India. We have a joint venture we developed in South Africa. So in these cases, yes, we will eventually when the asset is derisked. Yes. No problem with that.

Okay. We are done from the room, so we move to WebEx. We have 4 analysts booked for that session. I have a couple that can not come in with a voice. So I'll be their voice remembering my gold ages. So these questions are coming from Javier Suarez. The first one, I read to be precise about what he is asking. Enel is reducing guidance for 2022 and '23. Can you please elaborate on the reasons for that? Is that just related to LatAm? Second, the company increases CapEx by 15%, but maintains and change its medium-term growth targets. Does this mean that returns on your CapEx is lower than previously expected? And if so, can you explain the reason for that? The third question is about the dividend policy, which I think we have already answered, but just to make sure that if maybe Francesco, you want to reiterate the message. Dividends flat in 2024. Which is the logic behind leaving the DPS in 2024 flat versus 2023? I know I have to respect the rule of 3. So maybe I'll -- shall we answer these 3 and then we see if there is any additional time at the end.

Can you repeat the second, please?

Sure. The company increases CapEx but maintains and change its medium-term growth target. Does it mean that the returns on your CapEx is lower than 3 -- I think it's connected with the first one because as one saying and is reducing guidance for 2022, 2023? Can you please elaborate on the reason for that? So it's...

Okay. I'm taking the first and I hope I am answering the second. The second is so our return on projected investment is not lower than the previous plan. So we are seeing a stable level of returns on our investments. We are getting to a EUR 2.5 billion in the next 2 years coming from different FX scenario. That is if I get a new FX scenario versus what we had before. So EUR 2.5 billion is because of lower effects. Our targets out of the lower FX impact are increasing targets because what we are saying is that now we are out of this EUR 2.5 billion reduction, we are adding roughly EUR 1.4 billion of new targets that are scenarios and investments. So the exchange in is accounting versus real money. Accounting is because we have to translate our final results in Europe. But so this is -- it's a negative EBITDA. It's not related to facts. Facts are that financial flows from Latin America are fixed and not changing. So it's the way in which we do our reporting. But on the other side, now we have added EUR 1.5 billion at our targeted our [indiscernible] money because of higher prices in Italy and Spain and other countries and because of EUR 5 billion of higher investments that will bring EUR 500 million, EUR 600 million of higher EBITDA. So you choose the way in which you look at our targets. I do prefer the second because the first is related to an accounting rules that will translate in Euro, the results of our plan.

On the policy -- on the dividend policy, I think I answered when I was speaking to Alberto [indiscernible], but I can repeat here. The I know that there is a linear extrapolation that can go forever increasing every year. But what we wanted to explain here is that this is a minimum. It's a number that we put. It will not go down. Maybe in next presentation, we remain as it is or will increase. It will not go down. The reason is simply that we want this let's say new decade to really manifest itself in its entire dimension and speed before we get into another of these curves, nothing more than that. It's still at 13%. I mean like I said, the number was back calculated saying let's maintain the 13% and that 43 come up. That's it.

Okay. So I have 2 from Sam Arie, UBS. They are quite -- he's mixing it a little bit his opinion. So I'm just reading, okay, what he writes. Obviously, 2021 was a difficult year to give guidance with effect sustain commodity prices and everything else. So I guess you might have wished at some point in the year that you had been more conservative in your targets than last -- at last year, CMDs. So my question is, if it is fair to assume that are being more conservative in the targets you've set out now than you were last year? What I mean is you must have an internal view of what you can deliver. And then there are the targets you put out externally, which would normally be lower to give yourself a bit of safety margin. So what I'm asking is if you have perhaps increased the safety margin in your guidance relative to what you would have included last year? The second question is on a wider technology point. We hear a lot of talk from the nuclear industry about small modular reactors. This seems to be a discussion, which is gaining momentum, although it is still early days. Can you -- so can I just ask you to share your thoughts on this technology? And if you would imagine Enel being involved in any way? There is also and also, but is a comment that he's making on -- it's a message for you and Alberto. So I will share later. He's congratulating about the presentation so -- okay.

Okay. Maybe let me answer this small modular reactor question because, again, the small modular reactors are not new. They exist since the beginning of nuclear power because they are the reactors that move submarines, aircraft carriers, war ships around the world since the beginning, okay, since the end of the second world war, basically. So is it new technology? It can be, but not necessarily. And you know that today, you have barges in the Artic region of Russia supplying electricity and warm water to cities based on these technologies. So we don't see anything new in that sense. Why these haven't picking up speed and why this is not a diffused technology to generate power is because they are relatively expensive. And then they also have their own, let's say, nuclear issues that exist in all nuclear plants. So they have fissile material, fissile exposure. And then there's a whole array of issues around them. So are we talking about this? There's nothing new. Are we talking about new technologies on small modular reactors? Then there is something new. Yes, it is promising, although if you look at the costs that are being circulated, the last number I saw was EUR 4 billion investment for 345 megawatts. So we're talking about 11,000. Yes, it's a huge number. It's $11 million per megawatt when compared to other technologies. It's a big change, plus the complications around citing this kind of nuclear reactors. But in any case, they are not for the 2030 time frame. We're talking about things that might become commercially proposition and palatable proposition for the decade that comes after 2030. That's why there's no point discussing this right now in this context. This is not something we can rely on during the next decade. But there are clever people studying new technologies using thorium not using uranium using completely different fissile material, but they are honest enough to say this is for 2040 and later, not now. So we have to -- like I said, we don't rely on science fiction. I'm not saying this is science fiction, but it's not either normal technology that today you can go and have someone do it for you. It's not like that. So that's why you don't see us -- we talk to them. We know them. We -- sometimes they asked us to invest in their start-ups. We said we don't invest in startups, but we have funds that do that. So we are clearly looking at these things, but we are clearly also trying to avoid the confusion that today seems to happen every time you throw some kind of future view of the world, and you think this is today. So we want to not make mistakes in communication. And there is no investment required from us for the next 10 years on this front anyway. Yes, I'm sorry, but this is what I have to say on nuclear reactors in general.

On targets, we have to balance the answer because we have always market asking for more answer. So companies that are I think -- so my answer is, I think there is a balanced way to represent what we may do. In terms of operative development, I do think there is a level of development that can be increased a lot. So taking account that we are now talking that we are going to develop on average 7,500 gigawatt every year for the next few years instead of the 5 we are having this year. So it's a 50% increase on average, I think, is a big increase. Investments in networks that you know that -- so we can increase infinitely the investment we do. We have to comply with all the regulations in the country, and so the maximum investments. So we think that we may add something in this but not so relevant. And you have already looked at the increase in the service side of our business is incredibly high. So I think that part of -- so the economical target driven by the operating development is this. So it's a very big effort. Something may change if we look at scenarios and so other stuff that are not directly under our control. So in this case, scenarios and everything are set a way in which I think is also this way is balanced towards what may happen. But so now we are experiencing incredible volatility in the markets. And so in scenarios that are more volatile, we may find a way also to have some additional value creating because we work on volatility, volatility of markets is also part of our job. My final answer is, so we provided a range in target because of the high volatility of everything. But so we are still working to stay in the high and upper side of this range, mainly depends on the FX scenarios guys, it's something that we can't. So it's the only way we can manage and economically speaking, we manage it financially speaking because we don't have financial impact because of our hedging strategies. So the translation effect is something that we may not define in our view. That's why so you have this volatility in results.

Okay. We now move to WebEx. The first analyst that booked through the platform is Javier Garrido from JP Morgan. Can you please open the line to Javier? Javier? Okay. It looks like he is not connected. So maybe just to restore the -- before restoring the line to give the time to our colleague to restore everything, I'll just put in front of you a question from José Ruiz from Barclays that is asking about the role of storage in the future energy systems.

Well, I think you have -- we will have different storages. We have storage, pump storage. We have batteries. And I think for some years, we will deal with lithium-ion batteries that will basically recover storage functions between 1 to 4, 5 hours time frame. These are batteries developed for cars. They are not developed for this industry. The difference is that they are a good compromise between battery function and weight because they need to be moving around with a car. But if you look at what we need, we don't care about how -- what is the weight of the battery because they sit on ground. So there will be an evolution of batteries going forward as utilities will become more and more active on this front. And we will see batteries having storage capacity and different performances going into the 8 hours. So that battery will be the one that we will use day, night to cover the shift of the day. And there are other technologies that are developing very fast that cover multi-days or seasonal storage that have to do with gravity and other parts of physics that have basically also thermal storage processes that can be totally complementary to the variations of renewable generation going forward. But I think in general, we will see batteries on connected to network points. So on any high-voltage, medium-voltage connection that you want to have. So basically, power plants and batteries after the meters. So in the premises of customers that will help customers manage their loads before affecting the network. So there will be batteries everywhere. We are already surrounded by batteries. I think in these rooms, there are probably 50 or maybe more batteries in our devices and computers and whatever. So we will be completely surrounded by batteries. The question is can they work together to help the networks balance best. And that is today what we're looking at. So the technology end of batteries is what is the battery about, how it works. But more importantly for us is what is the digital interface that the battery has with the rest of the electricity system, and that's where we are facing our know-how, and that's why we made an acquisition in the U.S. years ago because we want to work on the energy management systems that make batteries a useful part of networks. So no matter what technologies they're made of, no matter what storage medium we're using, the interface between their storage capability and the network needs, that's where value for us is. And that's where you will see us pushing the investment and the know-how, the proprietary know-how that we are developing. And I think in the years you will find out that there are batteries that can be reused, batteries that can be recycled. And you see that, for example, we announced an investment in Spain in a recycling factory because I think there will be also value in the value chain after batteries' life has been has expired to re-recycle the basic components and use them again. Batteries don't really die. I mean they just evolve over life, but their components don't get destroyed. They just can be recycled and a new battery can be made out of them with a cost associated to it. So again, it's a fascinating technology evolution, whereby, there is always a trade-off between what is the cost of recycling material and what is the cost of new mined material and what's the equilibrium here? And we think going forward, demand will be such that recycling can become a very competitive opportunity here.

Okay. we'll try again with WebEx. There is a question booked from Antonella Bianchessi.

Yes. Just a few questions from my side. The first one is on 2022 guidance. There is -- if we remove the capital gain of Open Fiber in '21 there is a material step up in EBITDA. Can you elaborate on that? If this is including any one-off implication or others? The second question I have is on the debt. If I look at your slide on the financial cost, I can see that your expectation is for the debt to further increase in 2022. So can you elaborate on that? I thought that some of this expansion in working capital, your expectation was to recover it during 2022. And my last question is on the supply business. If I compare your previous 2023 guidance with your new 2024 in a little bit of detail, there are 2 clear trends. Latin America is down, but our prices are supporting generation. But there is another point, which is actually a step-up in the margins assumed for the supply in Italy. You are still targeting 18 million liberalized customer in 2024, which is -- which would assume a capture rate, a huge capture rate, which is not -- which is a very different trend compared to what you had over the past 3 years. So what is changing in your strategy? What is going to be different? When we will start to see the millions of customer -- liberalized customers coming through?

First of all, Antonella, let me answer the third question on the supplies. The step change in '23, actually, in '24 -- you find it in '24, is, as you know, the supposed and expected end of the regulated tariff, which we all know has been postponed more than once already. So we have no reason to think that this cannot be postponed again, but the rule that we have today is that this ends in the end of '22. So the assumption, as you know, we've had always through these plans is that we are not allowed to retain 100% of the customers under the tariff, but we would be probably allowed to retain the same quota of customers that today we have on the free market, which is roughly 50%. So that explains the jump. And again, I know this is a complete assumption because we really don't know how this is going to happen. We think that, by the way, in the way in which the regulated market has evolved -- the regulated tariff, I would say, has evolved, thanks to the gas prices hike has shown the fragility of the system, the inconsistency of the way in which prices are calculated to the point that today, people in the regulated tariff have worse conditions than people on the free market because of the volatility of gas prices, which I think will be an ongoing saga. So all in all, I think one way or another, that is the jump is linked to the end of the regulated tariff. We know just that this will probably happen across this period. If you ask me what is the likelihood for this to be delayed another step, I would say, 50-50 at this point. But if this trend of volatility continues, it will probably do happen because at this point, I think it's a good opportunity for the government to say, free, go because I don't want to bother with it any more. Go into the free market and god bless you. And I think at the end of the day, we end up having 50% of that market. I think it's not a problem. As we are talking, and that means in the last 2 months of this year, we've seen an incredible acceleration of migration from the regulated tariff into our free market base because people see the bills coming, and they understand the mistake they make staying on the tariff. I think there was an issue on guidance, '22.

The 2 questions on 2022 and on the debt, I think I have already answered before because they have been already asked but I repeat my answer. Related to the growth I said, so we are looking at an increase for the next year out of so what we said, Open Fiber and other -- so another one-off stuff on stewardship model. I said EUR 1.3 billion -- say, EUR 1.7 billion -- EUR 1.8 billion coming from renewables and customers, EUR 1.3 billion and EUR 500 million related to new scenarios in terms of pricing, new development of renewables. In terms of on the other side the increasing staff related to [ sending ] activities in Enel X, mainly based on what we are doing and also the big boost that we may have in the next year on the energy efficiencies. So building EUR 1.1 billion increasing in networks. And this is mainly related to the investments the delta [ web ], the indexation of tariff, the increases in volume and the efficiencies we are getting. This is what I said before. And on that [ accent ], so we are seeing that the increasing of that, it is presented in this plan versus the previous one, are lower than the level of investment increase that we are making putting in the plan. EBITDA conversion is 70%. So all in all -- and so dividends are set because dividends are a fixed through the DPS is an easy calculation. And so at the end of this calculation, you get that we are pointing at 24% FFO in the year 2024. And so 2.9x debt-to-EBITDA. And with the increase of debt also because we are financing this through to the asset rotation that is lower than the increase of investments that we are now putting in this plan versus the previous one.

Antonella, do you have a follow-up?

Yes. Sorry, to be the [indiscernible], but can you exactly repeat the number, the amount of which part of the EBITDA in '22 is not recurring, is coming from one-off? And my other question was again to Francesco because in reality, your market share in the liberalized market is declining. So I was wondering if there is a plan to change that if it's in your best interest to accelerate on the customer growth going forward?

No, it's not really. Yes. Yes, is -- let's say, that no one thinks that to have more than 50% of a market is a good idea. But we think it's actually a mistake. And there's nothing magic about 50%. If not that typically antitrust authorities let you live up to 50%, and above that, they start to worry and do something. So now if we have 45.6% or 49.2%, it doesn't matter. The matter is what value does this, let's say, group of customers really allow us to develop. So I think it is not an issue that we want to have x percent. The question is what is the best mix of customers we want to have, given the fact that they will all go free between the next 2 years, and it's up to us to say whether 50% or 45% or 46% or whatever. And if you did the calculation, I don't know what is your number, but I think it's probably between 45% and 50%, more or less. So I think that's really what matters here, Antonella. It's not the fixation of the number. It's the value that this portfolio of customer, combining with the portfolio of generating assets we have will express in the market. For example, if we would have 50% of the market -- of customers that do not want to electrify their consumption, and we leave the other 50% to somebody else, that would be a mistake. So it's the quality of customers that we want to focus on, not the number of customers. That is a logic that belongs to the past, a past in which consumption of energy was fixed, and you could do nothing about it. That is no more the case. And that is a change we're introducing in the strategy right now.

Related to the results next year. So if you say, so we have -- we don't have any that is out of the 2 business that we have, so ownership and stewardship. When it comes to the stewardship business model, as shown in Page 51 of the presentation that the accumulated EBITDA that we are going to do in this stewardship business model is EUR 1.2 billion accumulated. And this is split 50-50 between capital gain that is -- and the contra fees, the normal way of selling. Clearly, so because the next year we are going to establish the final model, so we are going to valorize some of our assets with this model. The percentage of capital gains will be more skewed towards the next year than the other 2. After this, I will say -- so we may have roughly 50% of the overall capital gain in the next year, so say around EUR 300 million. Then you will see the curve that the capital gain will go down. And so the level of service sold to joint ventures will go up. So all in all, we are thinking about roughly EUR 300 million -- EUR 300 million, EUR 400 million next year to valorize the asset and to start with new joint ventures.

Okay. We next move to Manuel Palomo from Exane. Manuel? Okay. Manuel is not ready yet. So I'll ask you a general question that comes from Lueder Schumacher from Soc Gen, who is asking, emerging markets seems to be struggling. Currencies are at 18 months low. Even a massive rally in industrial commodities couldn't get the momentum going, how do you see the outlook for LatAm?

Well, yes, so first of all, we will act LatAm in 2 ways. The first is, as I said, now the new capital allocation is 65% CapEx on OECD countries. So we are -- this is not something that is reducing the effort on Latin America. Remember that FX impact is not only on EBITDA it's also lower in CapEx. So we may do the same we did in the past with that overall CapEx, it is lower because of FX. But this allows us to bring investments in the OECD countries, and this will establish and then we will rebalance the exposition in terms of the FX volatility. On the other side, I would say that Latin America, as said, is doing well. So if you look at the operational developments and results of Latin America out of 2021 and the [ drug ] problem, I said before. So it's a picture that is also to have as a positive stance for the future, clearly. Now we are entering a period in which a lot of elections will come. So Chile is entering an election phase. Brazil is entering an election phase. Argentina is entering an election phase with different times but now the effects are already present today. So we think that we are not going next year in front of stabilization, normalization of the business in Latin America. But starting with a very, very low point. That's the point that we are experiencing today. So we may think that the 2 ways on looking at Latin America may give us some upside. On the other side, we will work in reducing a little bit the overall capital invested in Latin America and this is some part of the asset preposition that you -- that we have presented in the plan.

Okay. It looks like we have solved the problem with Manuel. So Manuel, can you hear us?

I hope it works now.

Yes. We can hear you.

Excellent. I will speak to 2. One it's a bit of bigger picture on the retail activity. And the other one will be a bit of detail on the debt guidance. So on the return activity, I understand the competitive advantage of being very well integrated and understand that a number of energy clients might be keen to pay for those additional services. But my understanding is that most of clients or at least a large amount of them do only care about the things, security of supply and the price that they pay. So I wonder what you have considered in your projections that many clients might be just prioritizing price instead of those services, then that maybe this could lead that average EUR 75 million with our flat that you expect over the period to come down in case of all the suppliers just offering security of supplies -- of supply and a lower price. My second question is a clarification on the debt. Well, it's 3 questions actually. One is whether the net debt guidance includes the lease liabilities, the IFRS existing lease liabilities. Number two, if you could update us on the amount of hybrids already issued and considered as equity, meaning not included in the net debt calculation, and a follow-up to the second one, which is what is the expected amount of additional hybrids you expect to issue in the 2022, '24 period, which will not be -- will be considered as equity, therefore, are not included in that net guidance?

Manuel, thank you for the first question. And because it maybe helps us remove a little bit of misunderstanding around the issue. We project, in fact, prices to go down, not up. We think customers, and we have repeated it during the presentation, need to have lower electricity prices. But in turn, because the electricity price will go down and remain stably down, they will shift to electricity, gas consumption thereby increasing the volume of electricity consumed. And our assumption is that our cost of supplying energy -- electricity to them goes down 40% between 2021 and 2030. If you look at Chart #28, you will see that 40% going down. So how do we do that? Substituting thermal generation with renewables that are more competitive and reducing the cost to serve through the digital transformation of our organization. That's the reason why we think this will happen. Otherwise, it would be crazy. There is no point for customers to switch if they don't see an advantage. On top of this reduction of energy -- costs of the energy, integrated energy bill, which is shown at Page 31, reduction of household energy spending of around 40%. They on top, and this is probably more valid for businesses than for families, they will reduce their carbon footprint by 80%. And you know how this is important if you are in business today because you get pressure from companies like us and many others to reduce your carbon footprint because the value chain need to be decarbonized. These people need it. And you know that there is today a big rush, for example, to have the carbonized steel because cars need to be sold with a lower carbon footprint and so forth and so forth. So this is a benefit that customers would look at when they buy energy. But first of all, it has to be cheaper. And that's the bottom line here. We think this transformation will happen if the energy prices goes down, not up, down. So thanks for the question. And the other question was on, yes.

On they hybrid.

On the hybrids, so we have today 6 billion of hybrids, 5 billion accounted as equity, 1 accounted as debt. That is the lower percentage on that in the industry. That is also lower than -- its ranging about 7%, 8%. We have no any -- so in the plan, we have no any issuance of new hybrids projected. So we think the level we are, it's good enough for us. And I didn't get -- Manuel, I didn't get the first question. So really, it was a noise.

Manuel, I don't know if you can unmute yourself again. We couldn't really get the first part of this hybrid question.

Yes. I hope it works.

Yes, it works.

The first part of the question was whether this net debt calculation includes the financial leases?

Financial leases?

Yes, absolutely, yes.

Okay. And now that I'm here, again, sorry, if I may, I'd like to ask the follow-up. I've been making some calculations and thinking about the guidance? And what I see is that if my calculations are correct, and I'm taking the average provide ranges, given the detail that you provide for the different divisions and that you exclude the services and others. When I do the difference, it looks to me that, that service and other division is negative in 2024 by EUR 1 billion. So I wonder whether you could shed some light on it.

Holding -- holding cost. So everything that is not in the divisions.

Okay. I think there was a follow-up from here the room, which is our last question for today here. In front, thank you.

I'll be brief. I couldn't help noticing that in the development of renewables, there's quite a big step-up in the United States this time around, which, in a way, is a higher multiple country. So could you please elaborate a bit your expectations top-down on the country. And it is slightly at odds with the big integrated margin strategy. So I'm wondering, should we expect maybe some more expansion in clients over there?

I think that it is no mystery that we believe the U.S. is a country where we should have an integrated position across the value chain. We've said it many times, and we have been actively looking at what can happen in the U.S. to have us reach that position without having yet a satisfactory answer to the question, but it's -- that doesn't mean that we not keep trying. Yes, there could be something there, but we don't have solution yet to offer you. Maybe we hope we will find something that makes sense in the next year. It's a pity because we think this is a great country with a lot of potential opportunities for a company like ours with a footprint that we have, with the technology know-how we have, with the digital dimension we have. We think it makes sense. But again, this cannot come at any cost. So it's a question of discipline and being patient, let's put it this way.

We're going to more than double the EBITDA in the United States in the next few years.

This is without any...

No, no, it's organically speaking.

Organically speaking.

And this is -- it means roughly 40% higher than the previous plan.

Okay. It's time to close today's presentation. Thank you so much. Thanks for the people connected. Thanks for the people here in the room. The Investor Relations department remains at your disposal for whatever follow-up question you might have. And also for the unanswered question that, as usual, we have a pretty long list. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Thank you.