EQT AB (publ) (EQT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to EQT's Q3 announcement. Today, we are thrilled to announce the acquisition of Stockbridge, a leading U.S. real estate investment manager. And during the quarter, we also closed the Coller Capital transaction, all while fundraising momentum, deal flow and value creation remains strong. But before handing over to Per, let me ask again that we limit questions to 2 in today's Q&A, so we have time for everyone's questions. So over to you, Per. Next slide, please.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Let me start today with some reflections on the PEI ranking published last week. After the acquisition of Coller Capital, EQT is now the third largest private markets for mobile. We are, by a distance, the largest non-U.S. firm, and we're the only firm in the top 20 without a private credit platform. In today's environment, this is an important differentiator. In a volatile and uncertain world, we are the performance-focused, trusted, reliable and strategic partner for investors. We're the global provider of international Alpha. Thanks to the breadth of our platform, we can deliver unique opportunities and differentiated solutions. Through our AI infrastructure fund, we provide access to the value creation in the world's second largest developer of data center capacity in 2026, EdgeConneX. In the scale of Europe fund, we provide access to the most attractive start-ups in Europe. The scale of Europe puts EQT really at the heart of the European growth ecosystem. It also helps us position EQT as a natural partner for global asset allocators that want to get access to private market opportunities in Europe. In our private equity strategies, we can give investors exposure to the demographic and economic growth in Asia, 60% of the economic growth in the world is coming from Asia, but only 5% of the capital raised for private market funds are invested there. Thanks to joining forces with Coller, we can engage with clients on their strategic asset allocation considerations. We can provide clients with the most attractive liquidity solutions, and we can help them stay invested in their winners, and support them in rebalancing their portfolios. Today, with the acquisition of Stockbridge, we're taking another step in the development of EQT and in making EQT, an even more attractive partner for clients. As we stated in our first half update, broadening the thematic focus areas and growing our real estate platform is a strategic priority for us. Performance in EQT Real Estate remained strong, and we want to be able to offer investors access to more Alpha in this asset class. We'll come back to Stockbridge shortly. Today, we're really in a stronger position than ever before. I've never been more excited about what we're building. In a tricky environment for our industry, we continue to produce attractive deal flow and good returns for investors. Thanks to our strong local presence in our target geographies, we can unlock attractive investment opportunities in our prioritized sectors, and we find those opportunities, both in the public markets and in the private markets, and we delivered the most compelling co-invest program globally. Over the last 12 months, we doubled our fund-based investments to EUR 30 billion. At the same time, we sent back EUR 29 billion to clients. Over the past 24 months, distributions amounted to EUR 58 billion. We will keep on investing in our value-creation toolbox, in our AI capabilities and our capital markets expertise so that we can maintain the attractive value creation momentum in our portfolio and that we can maintain those top quartile DPIs in our key funds. On the back of our strong track record and the strong performance we've generated, our fundraising momentum is excellent, and we are taking market share. Over the last 12 months, global fundraising volumes for the industry are down 13%. During this, [indiscernible] strategies to scale of Euro Fund and the AIM profound. Including Coller Capital, our fundraising outlook for this cycle is now EUR 140 billion, which is up from the original guidance of EUR 100 billion. This puts us in a position where we will have significant dry powder to invest in an environment where competition for deals is lower and where public market valuation multiples for many of our -- where we will have significant dry powder to invest, in an environment where competition for deals is lower and where public market valuation multiples for many of our target sectors are attractive in a long-term perspective. Next slide, please. We closed the acquisition of Coller Capital end of August, and the combination is off to a good start. The secondaries market is one of the fastest-growing areas of the private markets industry. Deal volume in the first half of 2026 is up 20% year-on-year. There are a number of forces behind this structural growth trend, including increasing client demand for liquidity solutions and private market investors wanting to stay invested with their best assets for longer. Our colleagues from Coller EQT give us access to these capabilities and to arguably one of the longest and most consistent track records in the secondaries industry. Across the most recent flagship funds, Coller has delivered first quartile net returns. In the short term, at Coller EQT, we're focused on the launch of the fundraising for the new generation of the private equity and credit secondary funds on capturing the attractive growth opportunity that we're seeing in the insurance segment, where we really see strong demand for the structuring solutions that Coller EQT can offer. And we're focused on accelerating the product build out, both for our institutional clients and for our wealth clients. We remain confident in the target that we have communicated to double Coller's fee-based assets under management in less than 4 years. Next slide, please. The latest product addition to the EQT platform is the scale of Europe fund. In this strategy, we're off to an amazing start. Deal flow is above even our most optimistic assumptions. And it's clear that Europe doesn't have a start-up problem, but it has a scale-up challenge. This strategy is perfectly designed to address this challenge and to capture this opportunity. And the fund has already announced 7 investments, including [indiscernible], Europe's leader in radar satellite intelligence; Tandem, a leading European clinical AI platform and Mistral, the leading European sovereignty AI platform. The pipeline that we see going forward remains deep across geographies, the targeted subsectors, and I expect the investment pace to remain healthy. Demand from investors globally for this fund is very encouraging, and we expect demand to significantly surpass the EUR 5 billion target fund size. Next slide, please. Post being awarded the mandate to the managed to scale up Europe Fund, EQT has become the preferred partner for talented founders and entrepreneurs. Most of them now want to have EQT and the scale up Europe fund as a shareholder. And this is really also what we're seeing in the attractive deal flow that I just spoke about. In addition to this, there's also a broader positive halo effect across all of EQT and the entire EQT platform. The win of this mandate to manage the scale up Euro fund, and the way we're delivering on this strategy has really elevated EQT standing globally. Thanks to our track record, EQT being a true European success story. And post the endorsement from the European Commission, EQT is now seen as the partner of choice for founders and global private market investors. Entrepreneurs in Europe are looking for a partner that can give them access to relevant sector expertise, operating capabilities and really the support to help them win globally. Investors from around the world are turning to EQT for access to the most attractive European investment opportunities and access to the most attractive alpha in Europe. We're the only platform in the industry, investing into Europe across ventures, growth, life sciences, buyouts, secondaries, and infrastructure, making us the natural partner for investors looking for exposure to this part of the world. Next slide, please. Let me next turn to the AI infrastructure fund. This is another example of a recently launched strategy where we see excellent momentum. In the quarter, NAV grew more than 20% to $11.5 billion up from $9.4 billion at the end of Q2. Just below half of that increase came from capital raising and the rest from value creation. We see continued strong growth ahead in NAV to put the current NAV into perspective and to give everyone a better sense for the potential size that this strategy can achieve over time. EdgeConneX today has a total equity value of around $50 billion, so approximately 4x the fund's current NAV. Over time, we expect the AI infra fund to continue to acquire shares in EdgeConneX from selling shareholders. Next slide, please. Let me -- next, turn -- yes, yes, since our entry in 2020, actually, EdgeConneX connects has grown into one of the largest data center platforms globally. When EQT Infrastructure IV acquired EdgeConneX, it was a regional data center operator with around 200 megawatts of contracted capacity. In 2026, EdgeConneX is the second largest developer of data center capacity globally, and actually ahead of every other private markets owned platform. Today, EdgeConneX has more than 90 data center sites across 26 countries on 5 continents, and 96% of contracted capacity is serving hyperscalers, investment-grade counterparties that have entered into long-term contracts with EdgeConneX. Since our investment contracted recurring revenue has grown more than tenfold, and the equity value has increased from around $1.5 billion to $50 billion, we expect continued strong growth for EdgeConneX. As of the end of 2025, Edge had around 1.3 gigawatts of contracted capacity, we expect to end 2026 at around 3.5 gigawatts of contracted capacity. In other words, the business has nearly tripled in scale in a single year. EdgeConneX is truly a unique asset. It's the only global independent pure-play operator, and thanks to the integrated investment strategy that we have applied in EQT infrastructure over the last years, EdgeConneX can bring power, fiber and capital from across the EQT infrastructure platform to the hyperscalers. And this is really a differentiated proposition. EQT remains the largest shareholder, so we control this business. And with the open-ended AI infrastructure fund that we have set up, we can really keep scaling this business and also this strategy for years to come. Next slide, please. Yes. And now we'll turn to our real estate business and the acquisition of Stockbridge. EQT Real Estate is a top-performing platform with an excellent long-term track record. Since acquiring Exeter in 2021, we have doubled fee-based AUM and more than doubled fee-related EBITDA. Today, we're investing one of the largest sector-specific real estate funds in the U.S. and in Europe. However, relative to the size of the asset cost, our real estate business still has significant potential for further growth. The institutional real estate market is large, growing and highly fragmented. It has around $13 trillion of AUM and is expected to grow by 7% to 8% per year. The top 10 players account for around 30% of funds raised. Stockbridge is a natural way for us to grow and to strengthen our team and broaden our offering. Stockbridge brings top-performing, diversified, open-ended core funds and complementary thematics to EQT Real Estate. And it will strengthen our existing team for the industrial Core+ and value-add strategies. Stockbridge brings a 20-plus year track record and a team that's also culturally well aligned with EQT. So with this transaction, we're building a stronger EQT Real Estate platform with a broader and even more attractive offering for clients and a more well-positioned larger business that will be driving profit growth and margin expansion over time. It's 100% cash field, and we believe that we have sourced this transaction at attractive terms for shareholders. Next slide, please. Thanks to Stockbridge, we will be broadening the EQT Real estate strategies into new thematic focus areas. Stockbridge has an excellent track record in alternative living. We're also creating a more scaled and diversified platform. Post closing, the Industrial segment will represent around 75% of assets under management and living will increase to around 20% of the business. And we will have a stronger offering of Core and Core+ products. In total, the combined platform will have around 600 full-time employees and $42 billion of fee-based AUM, up from $25 billion today. I'm really, really excited to welcome Stockbridge and the Stockbridge team to EQT and look forward to the collaboration. I'll now hand it over to Gustav, who will provide you with more details on this transaction.

Thank you, Per, and good morning, everyone. We're very excited about expanding our real estate business, and we think that we found a great partner in Stockbridge. They have around 185 employees across 6 offices and manages over USD 16 billion of fee-paying AUM on behalf of around 180 institutional clients. They've built the business across 4 main areas. First, alternative living. Stockbridge has realized USD 15 billion in value in manufactured housing at a net IRR of close to 20% and a net ROIC of over 4x in one of the best real estate track record that exists in the market. Secondly, the open-ended core, which is an established and high-performing product with USD 4 billion of fee-paying AUM and has delivered top 5% performance over the last 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years compared to peers. Thirdly, the industrial outdoor storage, an attractive niche within logistics, where Stockbridge has a scale presence with over USD 2 billion of fee-paying AUM, highly complementary to EQT Real Estate's existing logistics offering. And fourth, separate managed accounts with around USD 10 billion of fee-paying AUM that are both diversified and sector-specific across this risk sector and represents important relationship with strategic clients seeking targeted returns. Next slide, please. We see a number of clear value levers in this. First, by adding Stockbridge industrial auto storage expertise to EQT's logistics capabilities, we can continue to expand our leading industrial platform. Secondly, we're building out the alternative living side and broadening our thematic focus beyond logistics. Stockbridge long-standing track record in alternative living gives us a unique platform to build out. Third, growing the core platform. We will aim to scale Stockbridge open-ended core products through EQT's global client network and deal sourcing capabilities. This is something that we've done before. In the last U.S. real estate fund, the first flagship fund raised after we acquired Exeter, Around 15% of the commitments came from EQT-sourced clients, and in BPA IX, the same statistics was close to 25%. And fourth, we're planning to fully integrate the 2 real estate businesses and create a stronger business together with significant platform benefits across operations, analytics and AI. Next slide, please. So let me now turn to the financial contribution. For 2027, we expect Stockbridge to have fee paying AUM of USD 17 billion to USD 19 billion. Management fees of USD 120 million to USD 130 million and fee-related EBITDA of USD 35 million to USD 45 million. In the coming years, we expect fee-related EBITDA for the Stockbridge business to grow by 15% to 20% annually. Next slide, please. Finally, let me also talk about how we structure the transaction to ensure alignment of interest and a focus on long-term growth. This is a 100% cash acquisition with a base consideration of USD 375 million. 50% of the base considerations will be reinvested by the sellers in EQT shares with similar type of lockups as we've seen in our other transaction. On top of this, there is also an earnout of up to USD 175 million, subject to certain performance targets. As Per mentioned, we believe that we sourced this transaction at fairly sensible terms, where the base consideration represents a high single-digit multiple of the 2027 fee-related EBITDA that you saw on the previous page. We expect this transaction to close in Q1 2027. Next slide, please. So turning to fundraising, where we see strong momentum across the platform. During the third quarter, net inflows and value development added another EUR 42 billion to the fee paying AUM. This includes EUR 34 billion from Coller following the closing of the transaction. The key funds had net inflows of EUR 11 billion during the quarter, which is largely attributable, the addition of Coller and hence, CIP IX. We expect EQT XI to be activated in the next few months, and hence, that EQT XI will be included in the fee-generating AUM by year-end. On the back of the deals done in 2026, including Intertek as well as the performance of EQT X, we're seeing continued good momentum for EQT XI while recognizing that the fund raise will continue throughout 2027. As previously communicated, we expect to activate Infra VII around year-end and have an early close in December with the first close in H1 2027. On the back of continued strong performance for infrastructure, we see very promising fundraising dialogues. And finally, on the key funds, the fundraising for CIP X is expected to be launched early 2027. Across other closed standard strategies, we're currently in the market with around 10 funds. We've already secured commitments of more than EUR 3 billion for the scale-up euro fund. For Coller equity, we've launched a fundraising for CCO 3. The fund charges fees on invested capital and is yet to be activated. And we've held the final close of the health care growth fund at EUR 1.4 billion, in line with the targets. On the institutional open-end side, the AI infrastructure reached an NAV of $11.5 billion at the end of Q3, an increase of more than USD 2 billion during the quarter. About half of it was related to strong value appreciation and the rest was related to capital raised. All capital raised was used to sell down in EdgeConneX in Infra IV and Infra V. During the quarter, we activated our open-ended active core fund. The fund charges fees on NAV and contributed with around USD 0.7 billion to fee-paying AUM at activation. As of Q3, just above 10% of our fee-paying AUM is now charged on NAV and hence, growing with the performance, up from around 1% just 12 months ago. Lastly, our private wealth Evergreens. I'll come back on this in a moment. I also want to explain a change in how we're going to present Coller EQT's fee-paying AUM from year-end. In contrast to the legacy EQT funds, Coller EQT funds stepped down in fee rate and not in capital base. To align the presentation of the fee-paying AUM across equity, the step-down in fee rates will instead be reflected in the fee-generating AUM base going forward. On this basis, Coller EQT's fee-paying AUM is USD 33 billion, compared to the reported EUR 38 billion as of the end of September. And our previous guidance of USD 40 billion per year-end is hence instead going to be USD 35 billion. Given the lower fee paying AUM, the average fee rate will instead be higher as the management fees received are the same. So this is purely a technical change in order to align reporting. And in the appendix of this webcast presentation, you will find an illustrative case on how this is done. Next slide, please. So let me zoom in on the insurance side. This is one of the most interesting and fastest-growing pools of capital in private markets. Insurance capital is expected to grow by close to 10% annually to reach above USD 10 trillion by 2035. At the same time, insurance companies operate in a highly regulated environment and to participate at scale, you need fixed income exposure and strong structuring capabilities. On a stand-alone basis, EQT has been structurally limited in this area through Coller EQT, which brings deep insurance relationships and a dedicated team with in-house structuring expertise. Insurance clients account for close to 25% of Coller EQT client commitments compared to less than 10% for EQT as a whole. And since 2024, Coller EQT has raised almost USD 9 billion from insurance including a USD 2.7 billion structured product during the third quarter. This is a core growth area for Coller EQT going forward, but also for EQT as a whole, given the possibility to create combined primary and secondary insurance solutions. Next slide, please. We continue to see strong inflow across the Evergreen platform. Interest has been particularly strong in our U.S. focused evergreen infrastructure vehicle, which passed USD 1 billion in NAV during the quarter after being launched in early 2026. This is a clear sign of continued strong investor demand for infrastructure exposure. Q3 is a seasonally less active quarter given December holiday period. Net inflows still amounted to around EUR 0.9 billion during the quarter, compared to EUR 1 billion during Q2. Across those 6 months, September was the strongest single month. Redemptions is included in the net inflow and remain limited at around 1% of NAV during the quarter. And during Q3, we've also launched EQT Nexus Asia, a new Asia-focused private equity evergreen vehicle. And with that, I will hand over to Olaf. Next slide, please.

Excellent. Thank you very much, Gustav. Let's next turn to investment and exit activity. So looking back over the past 12 months, we announced about EUR 30 billion of fund investments across our global platform, of which EUR 7 billion was in the third quarter of this year. Additionally, we provided about EUR 12 billion of co-invest opportunities for our clients over the last 12 months, including EUR 2 billion in Q3. Infrastructure represented 1/3 of investments during the quarter as we continue to invest into areas, enabling the AI infrastructure build out, such as energy. On the private capital side, EQT X announced its final two investments, concluding the fund's investment period. And in real estate, we announced 2 large logistics portfolio acquisitions in Europe and in California. Turning to exits. We announced about EUR 3 billion of fund exits during the third quarter, which is typically a seasonally slower quarter for deal activity taking the last 12 months fund exit volumes to EUR 15 billion or EUR 30 billion, including exits for our co-investors. The Q3 exits included realizations across our Asia and European mid-market strategies, and EQT real estate announced the sale of 2 large logistics portfolios in the U.S. After the quarter, interestingly, Fortnox announced a dividend recap in the first software recap in Europe in 2026. The refinancing comes 15 months post our acquisition of Fortnox and since strong performance and cash generation has driven rapid deleveraging. It shows that the capital markets activity is picking up across well-performing names across the software industry. Driving exit remains a top priority, and we have a number of companies and assets preparing for exits. However, as always, it's hard to predict when these events will eventually take place. The geopolitical backdrop and the recent increase in interest rates makes for a more selective environment for exits at the moment. We've been one of the most active sponsors in the ECM market in recent years, and we're planning for certain IPOs. However, the public market performance is concentrated and so is the IPO market at the moment. At the same time, we're encouraged to see strategic interest picking up for certain situations. And as previously stated, we expect the AI infra fund to gradually increase its ownership in EdgeConneX through additional purchases of shares following some purchases already this year. Next slide, please. Turning to performance. All of our key funds continued to perform on or above plan. During the third quarter, key fund valuations increased by 5%. That follows broadly flat valuations in Q1 and a 5% increase in Q2. I'd say the Q3 performance was more broadly based than that we saw in Q2. Over the last 12 months, we saw double-digit value creation across private equity and infrastructure. The performance is paced by digital and energy infrastructure subsectors and EQT X seeing mid-teens value increase over the last 12 months. Earlier vintages, which do have a larger share of portfolio assets already realized, so a somewhat softer development, increasing about 1% during the quarter. Turning to funds in value creation mode. These funds showed overall good performers, up 5% during the quarter and 10% over the last 12 months. This is a strong relative performance considering these vintages having been partly invested in a high valuation environment. And following the closing of color, CIP IX is now part of our key funds, and it's performing on plan. The fund, as you know, is Coller EQT's, latest private equity secondaries flagship with about $10 billion of fee-generating commitments. So with that, let me hand it back to you, Gustav.

Great. Thank you, Olof. So let me say a few words on how we're using our balance sheet, which can be split into 3 distinct areas, which we invest into. First, we have fund investments of around EUR 1 billion. These are commitments alongside clients in EQT funds and will grow broadly in line with the AUM growth. The return of these investments comes from value development in the funds and cash materializes as the funds are distributing capital. Then we have strategic investments of around EUR 2 billion comprising of the second and third area. We have [indiscernible] investments in the newly established closed standard and evergreen strategies designed to accelerate growth for those strategies and enable early deployment. On the closed-ended side, EQT earns a capital charge and repayment is usually within 6 to 12 months. On the Evergreen side, EQT earns returns based on the value development and repayment is usually within 1 to 3 years. And then lastly, the third area is the structured solutions offering for both insurance and institutional clients. For these structures, EQT will hold an equity portion over the lifetime of the structure and as such, earn a return on that investment. As mentioned during the half year announcement, a good proxy for the annual blended returns on our balance sheet investments should be at least 10%, reflecting the diversified product and vintage mix. And with that, I will hand it back to Olaf to go through our revenue mix. Next slide, please.

Thank you, Gustav. So our revenue mix is broadening not only as it relates to investment income, but we also expect fee-related performance revenues to ramp up. Before going into some details, please note that this is a quarterly announcement and the figures on the page in front of you are therefore the adjusted H1 '26 figures, and they do not include Coller EQT. So starting with our revenues. The management fees, of course, make up the lion's share of revenues. These are contractual long-term and recurring fees for which we receive cash on a semiannual basis, with an increasing share of open-ended funds that Gustav talked about earlier, we will increasingly charge fees on the basis of NAV, allowing us to capture value appreciation, albeit at a lower fee rate. With more open-ended vehicles, we also expect to earn materially more fee-related performance revenues. These are earned on a recurring basis from funds charging fees on NAV, including the co-invest part of our evergreens, the AI infrastructure fund and the new active core infrastructure funds. These revenues do not require the realization of the underlying assets on our crystallized quarterly, annually or every third year, depending on the fund structure. EQT either receives cash or shares in the product. In H1 alone, they were already nearly 3x the EUR 10 million we recorded for the full year 2025, and we expect them to scale with our open-ended offering. As of the third quarter, we had about EUR 20 billion of funds eligible for fee-related performance revenues. And in the appendix, we've included more details on how we earn these revenues. Secondly, transaction advisory and other fees are transaction driven, and we're expecting to remain largely stable at around the current levels. And moving over to carried interest and investment income, investment income is as just described by Gustav, driven by the fund performance and by the balance sheet investments. During H1, we recorded just over EUR 200 million of investment income, which is more than we had in the full year of '25. And finally, carried interest where growth will be driven by value creation and importantly, exit activity. And as we discussed in our H1 update, we have 4 funds in carry mode with an expected EUR 600 million of carry to be recognized over a multiyear period, and we have 4 funds expected to enter carry mode in the coming years. So with that, I'll turn it back to Per for some concluding remarks before we open up for Q&A.

Thank you, Olof. So to conclude, our long-term approach to building the most attractive global client-centric platform in our industry continues to pay off. EQT is now the third largest private markets firm globally and the largest non-U.S. firm by some distance. Fundraising momentum and deal flow remains strong, really across our platform. The AI infrastructure fund launched in Q2 has already reached $11.5 billion of NAV. We see continued strong growth ahead for this strategy given the value creation potential of EdgeConneX. EdgeConneX is today the world's second largest developer of data center capacity, and we really see no signs of a material change when it comes to the demand supply and balance for AI compute globally. The scale up Europe Fund is off to an excellent start. Both deal flow and investor demand is above expectations. The fund has signed 7 investments during the quarter, and we expect investment pacing to remain healthy. The investor demand for this fund is going to be significantly above the target fund size of EUR 5 billion. Thanks to our strong fundraising momentum and post the closing of Coller Capital, we now see raising -- we now see us raising EUR 140 billion in this cycle compared to EUR 100 billion as previously communicated. We see attractive deal flow across strategies, and we expect EQT XI to be activated within the next few months and Infrastructure VII to be activated around year-end. The acquisition of Stockbridge will further strengthen EQT Real Estate's presence in the U.S. and broaden our client offering to more thematic areas where we can create outperformance for instance, within alternative living. During the quarter, we successfully closed the Coller Capital transaction and the combination is off to an excellent start. Finally, we're pleased that we, also during the quarter, established a presence in the Middle East. This is a part of the world where we see continued attractive growth and investment opportunities ahead for us. So with that, thank you all for joining us today. And now we'd like to open up for Q&A. Operator, please.

[Operator Instructions] And this question comes from the line of Arnaud Giblat from BNP Paribas.

Two questions, please. If I could start with your acquisition of Stockbridge, I think you're talking about 15% to 20% growth to be expected. I'm just wondering how that feeds into the earn-outs. I mean, clearly, there's a range of potential outcomes there that yield or not to earn out. So I'm just wondering if you could give us a bit of the parameters as to what level of growth needs to be achieved to achieve the full earn-out or not, that would be quite helpful. And my second question is on Infra IV and EQT IX, you talked about potentially some exit prospects, which of these are are related to those 2 funds. And particularly, if I focus on on And Infra IV, you also said during the call that there is an expected sell-down of EdgeConneX from Infra IV and Inftra V into the AIM prefund. So I'm just wondering at what pace that could go at how we should expect that to impact Infra IV?

Thank you for those questions. I'll start with the question on exit outlook, and maybe, in particular, also on Infra IV. So as was mentioned during the call, we see continued resilient and good performance in our portfolio and encouraging value creation developments. What our focus is in this environment is making sure that we can continue to push value creation across all of our strategies across the portfolio and that we really make sure that our businesses are exit-ready, so that they can take advantage of the right exit window when it emerges. What we're also seeing is an increasing dialogue in -- across a couple of our sectors with strategic buyers. It's, of course, hard to say when these conversations will materialize and lead to transactions, we're also making sure that our businesses are prepared for IPOs when public market conditions are the right ones. When it comes to the Infra IV and the sell-down of EdgeConneX, we see excellent momentum in the business. We continue to see good value creation, strong value creation ahead for EdgeConneX. And so on the back of that value creation, we expect interest in the AI infrastructure fund to remain very healthy. And so depending, of course, on how much capital will be raised for this strategy going forward, that will then also dictate how quickly we will be able to reduce the exposure in infrastructure IV, but then also over time, in Infrastructure IV and infrastructure VI to EdgeConneX. But we are -- yes, we're very positive about the development and we see very good momentum and investor demand for this strategy. And with respect to Stockbridge and the earnout, I'll hand it over to Gustav who can elaborate on that.

Yes. Thanks, Per. I would say, so the earnouts are -- there are a couple of them, and they are not specifically related to the overall growth but rather to the development of certain areas. So you can't tie it specifically to an overall growth rate. But I think if you think about it in general, as we said, for '27, we're expected to be between ee 35 million to EUR 45 million, so midpoint is EUR 40 million. If you think about that from a 15% to 20% growth rate in the coming 3 years, i.e., to 2030, you get to somewhere around EUR 70 million of fee-related EBITDA in 2030. . And I think it's -- in that scenario, I think you should assume that we would be paying out the full earn-out, which would then give us a purchase price of 550 and a multiple of around 8x.

And this question comes from Hubert Lam from Bank of America. .

I've got 2 of them. Firstly, on EQT XI, I think you said you still expect it to be activated at around the year-end. Can you talk about how fundraising so far has been in that fund? Should we expect the first close to be about half the target size? And do you still expect that fund to close in about 2 years? Or do you think it could take longer now? . The second question is, again, on the exit outlook. I think previously, you guided for about EUR 19 billion of exits this year, which is same as last year. But as of now, it feels like it's unlikely to achieve that. So can you talk about how this changes expectations around carrier investment income? I think previously, you said that you expect H2 to be similar to the first half. I'm just wondering if that guidance has changed now.

Thank you for those questions. I'll start with the one on EQT XI. So we held the first close this summer around 50% of the target fund size. Since then, also on the back of the excellent deal flow that we've had in Fund X investments such as Intertek but also [indiscernible], McGill and all of these investments have generated attractive also co-invested deal flow and are off to very promising starts. We continue to see very good momentum in the dialogues with our investors, our clients around EQT XI and so we expect to continue to make progress over the next sort of 12 to 15 months in this fundraising. I think the way you should think about the time line is very similar to the time line that we had around EQT X when I think we -- after the first close that we held, we continue to fund raising over the next 12 to 18 months to -- in the end reach the hard cap. In terms of the exit outlook and carried interest recognition, maybe I'll leave that to Gustav and Olof to comment on.

Should I maybe I start. I think, as you say, I think the exit volumes year-to-date is around EUR 10 billion. So I think, as always, with exits as same as with investments, they they come in, in periods, and it's not a straight line. So I think we'll need to wait and see where we end up on a full year basis. But I think as we've also talked about, we have a set up now where we are generating carry and have generated carry from an IFRS perspective, a lot in EQT and infra free and there will be somewhat of a gap until we get to Infra IV and EQT IX. So I think that is something that has a timing effect on when the carry will be recognized. . So -- and then when it comes to the guidance on the investment income and carry, I would say that I think the levels that we saw in H1 is probably the best proxy that we can give for H2 as well, both in terms of the absolute volume, but also to some extent, probably the split between carry and investment income, of course, especially given the strong performance that we've seen in Q3 on the investment side, that will have a positive effect also on the investment income side. So I think that's the best proxy I can give right now.

This one comes from the line of Ermin Keric from DNB Carnegie.

Two questions from me, if I may. So first, on fundraising. Could you give us any more color on the scale-up funds hard cap and your expectations for evergreen flows given the acceleration you saw in September? And then the second question would be on Stockbridge and long-term margins. So clearly, it has lower fee rates and a lower FRE margin than EQT has overall. Do you still stand by the guidance you have for next year of reaching your target level and therefore margin? Or will that now be delayed given the acquisition?

Thank you for those questions. I'll start with the fundraising related question on the scale up Europe fund. So what we have communicated is that investor demand is significantly above the EUR 5 billion funds target that we're seeing. We haven't set the hard cap yet, and so we don't want to provide -- or we cannot provide any further guidance on this at this point, but we're just incredibly like humbled and thankful by the demand that we're seeing and also the amazing momentum that we have in this part of our business, and we will come back with more information when we set the hard cap for this strategy. Gustav, you want to comment also on the Evergreens and then the margin outlook post Stockbridge.

Yes. So on the Evergreen side, I think what I said in the H1 report where we had approximately EUR 2.5 billion of gross inflows. And I said that's a good proxy for the second half of the year, but that you should expect a bit lower volumes in Q3 compared to Q4. I think that still holds. So as we said, we have EUR 0.9 million net inflows here. So the gross inflows is about EUR 1.1 billion. So that would mean that you would need EUR 1.4 billion in the second or in the fourth quarter. And let's see if we get to exactly that amount, but I think we'll be close enough for that guidance to be the right guidance. So I think that still holds. When it comes to the Stockbridge margins, they will have somewhat of an impact. But I would say that given the the strength that we're seeing in the business, given the positive effects that we will see from the fee-related performance fees, the previous guidance that we've given still holds for 2027.

We are now going to take our next question, and this one comes from Angeliki Bairaktari from JPMorgan.

Just a couple from me as well, please. First of all, with regards to your EUR 140 billion fundraising ambition over the cycle, given that you have now brought on another EUR 17 billion of fee-paying AUM with Stockbridge and it sounds like you expect those assets to grow quite fast, does the EUR 140 billion fundraising includes Stockbridge? Or should we expect something on top over the next 3, 4 years? And second question with regards to the value appreciation in the AI infrastructure fund coming from EdgeConneX, it's a pretty big number this quarter, $1.1 billion. I was just wondering what share of that comes from underlying earnings growth at EdgeConneX? And what portion of that comes from potential multiple appreciation?

Thank you for those questions. I'll start with your second question on EdgeConneX, so all of the value creation that we saw in the quarter relates to earnings growth and new business growth. And so we haven't made any changes in the multiple EdgeConneX, and we continue to see excellent momentum for this investment also as we head into Q4 and look out into 2027. . Gustav, do you want to comment on the point on fundraising guidance in this cycle post Stockbridge.

It does not include Stockbridge. So there is a bit of upside in it. But just to remember that it kind of this -- for us, this fundraising cycle kind of ends with the start of -- with the launch of BPA X, so we're not talking about 3, 4 years out. So in essence, it means that we have a bit shorter period of time. So I don't think that you should expect that Stockbridge in that period of time will add a material out. We will, of course, not include the EUR 16.5 million. So it's only net additions from that, that would include. But there is probably a couple of billion of upside from that acquisition in the time we have left in this cycle.

We are now going to take our next question and this question comes from Magnus Andersson from ABG Sundal Collier.

Just first of all, on margin as much of the new FUM coming in is from infrastructure between real estate and Coller Capital here, how you see the average fee rate developing a few years out as the fees here are lower than in your [indiscernible] flagship funds? And then secondly, just coming back a bit to exits as your stock is unlikely to rerate significantly before exits really get going. It's obviously been very weak also in Q3. So when do we have to see exits coming out on the EQT IX for your kind of guidance for 2028 [indiscernible]. We've been waiting for quite a while for Infra IV and EQT IX without anything happening. And you pushed the guidance forward in connection with the H1 report, as we know but just so that we have something to monitor because the conviction about estimates or expectations for 2028 is obviously still low in the market considering where you are trading?