Equifax Inc. (EFX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 10, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Dorian Hare
executiveWelcome to Midtown Atlanta. This is the home of Equifax's headquarters. We've been here for over 120 years. We have 12,000 employees around the globe operating in 26 countries, and almost 1/3 of our workforce is based here in Midtown and in North Atlanta. So it's really fitting that we have our investor meeting here today. We wish, we could be doing it face-to-face, but COVID really requires a virtual environment. Our next meeting will certainly be a face-to-face meeting. This is a big milestone for Equifax after the last 4 years. We've been investing record amounts in our technology, in our data, in our analytics and the single data fabric and in bolt-on M&A to really transform a 120-year-old company into a faster-growing Equifax. The new Equifax with higher margins, higher free cash generation and really the ability to invest more in our company while returning cash to shareholders. We're really excited to share this message with you and take you through in real detail with the business unit leaders, our Chief Technology leader, our Security leader, and of course, our CFO, the message around how we're energized around the new framework for Equifax. So I'm going to go upstairs and join the rest of the team, and then we'll show a short video while I'm heading upstairs and then Dorian will come on and take you through our agenda, and then I'll really kick off the meeting in our studio where we can take you through the new Equifax, a faster-growing company with higher margins, higher free cash generation and the ability to really invest more in our company while returning cash to shareholders in the future. We're energized about the new Equifax, I hope you are, too. [Presentation]
Mark Begor
executiveGood morning, Dorian.
Dorian Hare
executiveGood morning, Mark. I'm Dorian Hare, Senior Vice President and Head of Corporate Investor Relations. We're really excited about today's event. We expect that our presentation today will last approximately 3 hours. After our prepared remarks, the equity analysts that cover Equifax will have an opportunity to ask questions. During today's presentation, we will be making several forward-looking statements. These include information related to our long-term framework and capital allocation plan to help you understand our company, our business environment and our growth strategy. These statements involve a number of risks uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in our filings with the SEC including our 2020 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. Today, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA and in other measures that have been reported in our earnings releases for the historical periods presented, which reflect adjustments for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance. These are important financial measures for Equifax, but they are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website. A replay of today's presentation will be available on our website, investor.equifax.com under the IR Calendar section of our News & Events tab. Now back to Mark.
Mark Begor
executiveThanks, Dorian.
Dorian Hare
executiveThanks, Mark.
Mark Begor
executiveWell, good morning, and welcome to Equifax. It's really exciting to have our first Investor Day since the cyber event in 2017, and actually in almost 8-plus years. We spent the last 4 years really rebuilding Equifax. You've known Equifax for a long time. We're a company that's been around and winning in the marketplace for decades. We were strong in the past. We're stronger today and we'll be stronger tomorrow. And as we brand it with the new Equifax, a company that's got higher growth, higher margins and higher free cash flow. The new Equifax is a faster-growing company. We spent the last 4 years rebuilding 121-year-old company to make it a company that's going to grow faster, deliver higher margins and higher free cash flow. And we really feel like we're just getting started. If you look at the old framework we had at Equifax of 7% to 10%, our new outlook that we've got a lot of confidence is that we're going to grow in 8% to 12% going forward, a significant increase in our outlook for the future. And if you look at the last 2 years at the growth of Equifax of 17% in 2020, and 19% in 2021, you can see why we have the confidence in the ability to grow Equifax going forward. We've got some really significant growth drivers behind Equifax. It starts with the cloud. We'll be the only cloud-native company in data analytics going forward. As you know, we made a big bet in 2018 to not only invest in our security following the cyber event, but to transform the company from a data and analytics and technology and going cloud-native. Second is we have differentiated data that really is second to none. Our data was strong prior in the past. We've added to it over the last 4 years, and we plan to continue to add to it going forward. The single data fabric that's a part of our cloud transformation is also transformational. Our competitors in the old Equifax operated in silo data assets. Today, we have a single data fabric with a 360 view of consumers that allow us to deliver multi-data solutions to our customers like before. In Workforce Solutions, our largest, fastest-growing business is a very significant structural growth driver of Equifax. When you go back just a short 4 years ago, Workforce Solutions was $700 million of revenue. Today, it will be just over $2 billion, in a short 4-year time frame. It's accreting into our top line. It's also accreting into our margins, and we'll talk more about that. We're focusing very heavily on new products. That's another massive lever for Equifax as we leverage the cloud and our differentiated data to deliver new solutions to our customers like we could never do before. And we're expanding our lens into new verticals, verticals that really expand the TAM of Equifax, whether it's ID and fraud, talent or government or others, they really expand the ability for Equifax to grow. You know we've been very focused on M&A. That was part of Equifax for decades. We've strengthened that focus, and we'll talk more about our intention to continue to grow the company on the top line by investing in M&A that will add 100 to 200 basis points to our top line growth going forward. Securities are bedrock at Equifax. You'll hear about that this morning, too. We think at table stakes. When you manage data and analytics like we do, you have to have the industry-best security. We made that commitment 4 years ago, and we're fulfilling on that commitment. And last, we think we have the best team in the industry, a team that's reinvigorated and it's focused on driving Equifax going forward. So the new Equifax, higher growth, higher margins and higher free cash flow going forward. There's a lot of macro trends that benefit Equifax in our industry going forward. More data, that's been exploding over the last date in the last 5 years. There's more data available and the ability to utilize that data by ingesting it into our cloud capabilities is really quite significant. We think we're going to be better positioned to take advantage of that data macro. Second is the speed of data, the ability to ingest more data more quickly, data that's more current in more real time and then deliver to our customers in the same way. So that speed of data is also benefited by our cloud transformation. Our tech transformation, we think, is going to be a real benefit to Equifax, not just in the last, but next couple of years that we believe give us a competitive differentiation perhaps for the next decade going forward. Digital is exploding, another big macro for Equifax that we're focused on by our identity and fraud focused account acquisition the differentiated data assets that Equifax has. More and more consumers are interacting with our customers on a digital basis. And that requires identity that requires the interactions with them to verify that Mark is Mark when they're doing business with them. The mortgage market clearly is going to give us some pressure over the next 24 months. We've had a beginning of that normalization in 2021. And we laid out a framework a few weeks ago where that will continue in 2022 as we move back to normal. But Equifax is much more than that today. And we believe we can grow through a normalizing mortgage market. Talent and hiring, a big new TAM for us, is only going to get stronger going forward. 75 million people are hired every year in the United States and they all need some level of data that Workforce Solutions, now with the addition of Appriss, is bringing that through our digital hub to the talent vertical. Social services are expanding in the United States. You all see what's going on in Washington. More and more social services being delivered to individuals in the United States that, for the most part, require a means-based verification, meaning income and employment verification. That plays in Equifax. And you know we have a large and growing government business in Workforce Solutions that plays into that vertical. And then compliance and regulation. More compliance and regulation benefits Equifax, whether it's in the hiring state process, financial services. So a lot of macro trends that we think are going to benefit Equifax going forward. So not only do we have some meaningful market macros benefiting Equifax, we've expanded our view of the market. If you go back to Equifax and how we've looked at the world for maybe the last couple of decades, we looked at about a $17 billion marketplace around the globe, that was growing at about 8%, a great industry to play in. You know that and we know that. We've expanded our view over the last 3 years by really adding some verticals in faster-growing spaces, in identity and fraud, TAM that's almost $19 billion, growing at almost 20%, and of course Kount in our other initiatives. They really play into that space. We've added the talent TAM in the United States, which is a $5 billion TAM. Government is about $2 billion. So those -- the larger focus is in faster-growing markets, we think benefit Equifax going forward. And we've really tripled our view of the marketplace. So a lot more room to grow at Equifax. And from our perspective, we're much more than a credit bureau in 2021, and we will be much more than a credit bureau as we go out to 2025. So next slide is our strategy that we laid out earlier this year, our EFX 2023 strategy. it's the compass that we're using to guide the company over the next 3 years. It's not dissimilar from the compass and the strategy we laid out in 2020, really 4 years ago. And it really has a pillar around it of leveraging the cloud for innovation, new products and growth. That really is the story of Equifax going forward is a cloud-native company that's going to focus on leveraging those cloud capabilities to drive growth like we've never been able to do in the past. The pillars or the foundation of that is really focused on accelerating innovation new products. You'll hear about that this morning from Bryson and the BU leaders. Leveraging our cloud capabilities. As you know, we invested an incremental $1.5 billion over the last 4 years. We still got work to do to complete the cloud, but we're well down the road, and we're starting to get the early benefits of the cloud in NPIs and in our competitiveness in the marketplace. Expanding our differentiated data assets, Equifax has data assets at scale that our competitors don't have and we're expanding to that, whether it's the addition of Appriss, the addition of Kount or other capabilities that we're adding to build out our data capabilities in a single data fabric. We're focused on putting our customers first. Customer first mentality is a big deal for me. I'm a field leader that spends a lot of time with our customers, our team does, too. Bolt-on M&A is central to our strategy. You'll hear about that today in our long-term framework. It has been in the past, that will continue going forward. But the real benefit we have is our cash flow is accelerating that gives us the ability to accelerate our M&A going forward, which will strengthen Equifax for the future. Security leadership is critical. We made a commitment 4 years ago when I joined Equifax after the cyber event, we would be an industry leader in security, and you'll hear from Jamil around that about where we're going and how we're -- the progress that we made to really make Equifax a leader in that around security. And the last is a team. We've remade the Equifax team over the last 4 years. We've changed our culture. We changed our values. We rolled out a new purpose. We're a different company going forward that's leaning in to help our customers grow and really leverage the capabilities of Equifax for the future. Here's a look at the new leadership team, and it's a team that has been built out over the last 4 years. As you know, I joined a little less than 4 years ago. About 2/3 of the team is new. We brought in great talent to really drive the company. You're going to hear from a lot of them this morning. And then as I mentioned earlier, we rolled out a new purpose, helping people live their financial best, and we rolled out new values around how we're going to operate the company. And we're energized around this team, and this is the team that's going to take Equifax to deliver this long-term framework going forward. I mentioned earlier, we spent the last 4 years investing in Equifax. It was really a pivotal time for the company. We had a window following the cyber event, and we made what we characterize as a big bet. We bet back in 2018 that we were not only going to take our security to industry-leading capabilities, but we were going to transform the company from a technology and product standpoint and go cloud-native. The only data analytics company that's going cloud native with their technology and the only one with a Single Data Fabric. So $1.5 billion invested in that, and you can see our progress here. You hear us talk about it. We're well down the path, and you'll hear from Bryson and from John about our progress of really driving the cloud transformation. We're just starting to see some of those benefits, and those benefits will accelerate as we go into '22, '23, '24 and '25. And then second, around M&A. We've invested about $3.5 billion in the last 4 years. The bulk of that in the last 12 months, really in the last 10 months, to really strengthen and broaden Equifax. We'll talk about our strategy. We've been very transparent and clear with you about how we're going to operate the company from bolt-on M&A. And I use that bolt-on term quite deliberately. You're not going to look at us buying a fifth or sixth or fourth business unit. We're looking at how do we strengthen the core of Equifax, like Kount and like Appriss and those kind of acquisitions that really strengthen the core of Equifax and really drive our growth going forward. So it's exciting to have that investment behind us. We still got work to do, but now we're starting to see some of the benefits of that investment. The Equifax cloud is really differentiated. We believe that it's really going to drive a competitive advantage for Equifax over the next 3, 5, 10 years. We really have gone all in on the cloud, and we're way down the path of really executing that. As you know, we're in a lot of migration mode now, and we'll talk more about that $1.5 billion incrementally invested in our cloud capabilities. It's going to deliver real-time insights, multidata assets at scale, faster and more efficient products that we can get to our customers more quickly. Speed of data, which is so critical in this digital environment, getting data really in real-time access to our customers. Improved speed and performance; always on capabilities in the digital environment; and then built in security. And we believe the cloud capabilities, which Bryson will go through, and you'll hear from each of the business unit leaders, is really a competitive game changer for Equifax going forward, and is at the heart of some of the confidence we have to increase our long-term framework going forward. The differentiated data at Equifax at scale is a big deal. We have data assets today our competitors don't have. You can start with our credit file, which our competitors have also. And then you go beyond that, we're the only ones who have the NC+ cellphone utility database in the United States. We're the only ones that have twin, the income and employment data, at scale, 125 million records that Rudy will talk about a little bit later. Add that to some of the other data assets that we've acquired through Appriss and through Kount. We're going to continue bringing those data assets together. But what's different about Equifax, and one that was a part of the bet we made 4 years ago, was to go to a Single Data Fabric. And that's so differentiated in having siloed data assets. If you want to use data at scale, you have to take it out of the different siloed data assets and key and link it, meaning find Mark Begor in each data set. You can do that. We did it before. But having it all tied up together allows our customers in Equifax to more quickly really access those multi-data solutions. And as you know, multi-data solutions drive predictability. They drive our customers to have better performance around underwriting around losses, around identity and fraud, as you bring more data elements together. And the Equifax Single Data Fabric, we think is really differentiated, and we're excited about the opportunities of that going forward. So we spent the last 4 years investing in Equifax. And we're starting to see the early results of that in our outperformance. If you look at our performance over the last 2 years, we've had 7 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, of course, aided by the mortgage market. But more importantly, if you look at our core growth, the growth in Equifax, excluding the impacts of the mortgage market, which we've been talking to you about every quarter over the last number of years, our core growth is really extremely strong, and over 20% in the last 3 quarters. That's driven by our cloud capabilities. It's driven by our new product rollouts. It's driven by the strength of our underlying businesses, particularly Workforce Solutions. And you can see those results in our annual performance going forward. And if you look at the new Equifax, where we're focused on driving growth of Equifax at 8% to 12%, we've been outgrowing our new framework over the last couple of years, which gives us the confidence to put a growth framework in place that's up dramatically from an old framework of 7% to 10% to now 8% to 12%. And if you look at the right hand of the slide in our growth over the last number of quarters, you could see the quarterly growth has not only been strong, but it's been accelerating. So that's the confidence that Equifax has in putting out a very strong long-term growth framework of 8% to 12% going forward that we're really excited about. And those benefits are starting to kick in. When you look at the investments that we made in the cloud and the bolt-on M&A, our system performance and always on stability is starting to drive competitiveness with our customers that higher competitive is allowing us to continue to bring new products to the marketplace. We're bringing out multi-data solutions, we couldn't do before that are more predictive and drive lift to our customers. Our innovation is bringing new products to market more quickly, and we've accelerated our NPIs. As you know, we made a big investment really in the last 18 months to put new resources in place under Bryson in each of our business units to really drive new products going forward. And we're really seeing a very positive lift through 2021. We expect to be over 140 new products and our vitality index up to 8% this year, which we think is very, very strong. And faster M&A integration. With the cloud, we're able to integrate acquisitions more quickly into a cloud environment than we were in the old legacy environment, which really gives us confidence in doing M&A. And then, of course, we're focused on reinvesting our strong cash flow over the last couple of years into bolt-on M&A that's going to strengthen Equifax going forward. From our perspective, we're still in the early innings. We're only a few months into getting close to completing the cloud. And once we complete the cloud, really take advantage of it in '22, '23, '24 and '25, that's part of the framework that gives us the confidence to increase our long-term growth rate so meaningfully going forward. NPIs are really a big part of Equifax. They always have been. But we've doubled down on that. We've added more resources. We've got more focus on it. We're really driving the growth. Historically, we did something like 70 to 80 new products. And you can see how we've grown that in 2019 to 93, in 2020 to 134, this year over 140. And our long-term framework, we want to be closer to 150 or more going forward of new products. And the Vitality Index, which you know is revenue from new products over the last 3 years, is a very big number for us and a very big priority. And it really reflects the vitality or the energy of the company around bringing new solutions to market, leveraging our differentiated data in the cloud capabilities we have. And we've set a goal to be 10% Vitality Index going forward, which we think is a big deal. This is, again, another bedrock of the confidence we have of increasing our framework going forward, our long-term growth framework. Our NPI investments will be expanding going forward. As you know, this is a chart that lays out our CapEx historically and over the last couple of years. John will talk a little bit more about that, but we've been very clear, we're going to take our CapEx down but the mix of our CapEx is going to change. Pre the cloud, we spent a lot of money maintaining our legacy environment. That left money for new products, but not as much as we would have liked in the past. Of course, in the last 3, 4 years, we spent a lot of money migrating to the cloud. Big investment that's going to bring our CapEx down. But in a new cloud environment that's more agile with 1 application instead of 10 and it's going to allow invest more in new products. So going forward, we expect to have an increase of CapEx at a lower level as a percent of revenue, but as a percent of CapEx growing dramatically that's going to allow us to really drive those new products, which we believe will drive our top line, which gives us the confidence that we think cloud and NPIs are going to contribute 200 to 300 basis points of revenue growth going forward, very meaningful as we think about the future of Equifax. And you'll hear this morning about our product offerings. I talk about them every quarter with you. We're very passionate about it. Our customers are looking for new solutions to help them grow, multi-data solutions, leveraging the data fabric leveraging new analytics capabilities or decisioning capabilities and whether it's new solutions in the mortgage space, out of Workforce Solutions or it's new solutions and alternative data out of USIS. All of the Equifax businesses are focused on new products. We've added more resources, more people around it. And you'll hear from both Bryson and the business unit leaders about how they're driving NPIs into their business, both at the global level and at the local market and business level. It's really an exciting time for us. And that's, again, what gives us the confidence of our ability to drive our top line growth going forward in a more meaningful way than we have in the past. So let me spend a minute on our new long-term growth framework, which really has Equifax growing 8% to 12% on the top line going forward, an exciting increase from the growth we've historically delivered a 7% to 10%, including M&A. It starts with organic growth. driven by our core business performance, our new products and our cloud capabilities, growing 7% to 10% versus a 6% to 8% historically, and that's up about 100 to 200 basis points. We're going to continue to focus on bolt-on M&A that's going to add 100 to 200 basis points to our top line growth going forward for a total growth of that 8% to 12%, I already mentioned. And that's up 100 to 200 basis points from our historical growth of 7% to 10%. I talked about our EBITDA margins, which we expect to expand. Historically, they were growing 25 basis points per year. We expect them to grow 50 basis points per year, really 2x over what we discussed before. And that's really driven by our higher-margin incremental growth the power of Workforce Solutions and then the power of our new products and innovation coming off the cloud. I talked about our EBITDA margins, which we expect to expand. Historically, they were growing around 25 basis points per year, and we expect them to grow going forward, a strong 50 basis points per year, up 2x over what we've had in our prior framework. And that's driven by our higher-margin incremental growth the power of Workforce Solutions and the power of the new products and innovation coming off the cloud, which we expect to add to our growth rates. We also expect our cash EPS to grow in the range of 12% to 16%, which is a very strong performance. And of course, our annual shareholder return will also expand to 13% to 18% from 12% to 16% historically, so an increase of 100 to 200 basis points. So we're excited about this new framework. You'll hear more about it this morning. but it's really delivering faster growth, higher margins, higher free cash flow and higher returns to our investors. So here's the walk on the long-term growth rate of 8% to 12%, and you can see the contribution that our business units have. Workforce Solutions is clearly a big driver of our growth. With Workforce Solutions growing significantly faster than the rest of Equifax, it's accretion into our top line is quite meaningful. And of course, it's impact on margins with its margins being well over 1,000 basis points above our average, also is quite meaningful. USIS adding 200 basis points, International 125 and then GCS about 25 basis points, is how you get to that 7% to 10% or 8.5% at a midpoint in our new long-term framework. And then adding 100 to 200 basis points of M&A gets you that 8% to 12%. So we'll talk more this morning, particularly in each of the business units and also with John about how we build that up and why we have the confidence in underlying this framework is that 200 to 300 basis points from the cloud and NPIs, it is embedded in those business unit numbers, and that's a very meaningful change. That's the payoff of the investment we've made over the last 4 years. And we're starting to see the early days in our organic growth, our core growth being very, very strong and really above the framework that we're putting in place for the long term. Our 8% to 12% long-term growth rate is really underpinned by our 4 business units. And it starts with Workforce Solutions, our largest and fastest-growing business. You'll hear from Rudy Ploder in a few minutes about how he's driving that business going forward and the strong growth that they've had from 2019 to 2021, they've delivered 45% CAGR growth, really strong performance. It's driven them to over $2 billion of revenue in 2021. And that business, we expect to continue to grow going forward at very attractive margins. So they're top line and the bottom line or accreting into Equifax. You'll hear from Sid Singh about USIS. That's clearly recovered from the cyber event, delivering strong core growth over the last couple of years and really with an attractive long-term growth rate of 6% to 8% going forward, often 11% growth over the last couple of years. Lisa Nelson will come up and talk about our International business, which will be $1 billion in 2021 and really talk about the growth of that business delivering 7% to 9% from their fast-growing markets in Latin America and their strong market positions in Canada and in Australia and the U.K. and Spain. And our GCS business is a business that we decided to integrate into our 3 business units. We made that decision over the last few weeks. We'll complete that integration in the fourth quarter. and then we'll recast our financial results. And the bulk of GCS will end up in USIS with a piece of it being in International. And I want to thank Bev Anderson for her leadership over the last 2 years as we've really repositioned GCS. And we think it's really the right step to integrate it into our other 3 business units and really following the strategy we've had of moving decision-making closer to markets and to our customers, and we look forward to doing that in the fourth quarter. Workforce is clearly a big driver of Equifax growth. If you look at the breakdown of our -- of the contribution of the businesses inside of the revenue growth, Workforce Solutions, in our old long-term framework, was about 29%. In the last couple of years, it's been a big portion because of their strong outperformance. As you can see, it's 78% and 75%. Going forward, we expect Workforce to be a very meaningful contributor, 59% of our growth going forward. And then you can see USIS, International GCS and their contributions to the business going forward. You'll get a piece of that, both from John and the business unit leaders a little bit later this morning about how we build that up and how we have confidence in the business units supporting that 8% to 12% growth going forward. There's multiple levers for Workforce Solutions growth. Rudy will go into this in more detail, but I mentioned earlier that back in 2017, Workforce was about $760 million. They'll be just north of $2 billion this year, a CAGR over that 4-year time frame of 27%, which is very, very strong. We don't expect that 27% to continue going forward. But we believe that Workforce can deliver 13% to 15%, so highly accretive to Equifax going forward. And we think about their margins very attractive at 55% in 2021. Those are highly accretive to Equifax margins going forward, which is a part of that 50 basis points that we have confidence in delivering going forward. But then Workforce is just an increasingly large part of Equifax, both from its organic core growth and then the deliberate focus we have on M&A to strengthen workforce, whether it's in talent or government through the Appriss acquisitions, Health e(fx), HIREtech or some of the others that we've done this year. And we expect Workforce to be north of 50% of Equifax going forward. Big levers for growth. It starts with records. Rudy will talk about that, their ability to grow records, up 12% in the third quarter. Big focus on new products, their vitality index is indexing north of the rest of Equifax as they're really leveraging the cloud to bring new solutions to market with some of the new data elements that they're bringing in. New verticals in Workforce Solutions, the Data Hub and of course, penetration in more poles and then bolt-on M&A, as I already talked about. So a really strong business for Equifax. Clearly, our strongest business going forward, and one that has a lot of growth opportunity. And the long-term framework. We have a lot of confidence and Rudy and his team delivering 13% to 15% top line in the long term at very attractive margins. Here's a chart on Equifax EBITDA margins. We expect them to have a real acceleration over the near term as we get some of the cloud benefits and the operating leverage from Equifax. We already talked about on our earnings call a couple of weeks ago, the 2022 framework that we put in place. John will touch that a little bit more. But you can see, we expect to get 175 to 200 basis points. And we've set a goal for 2025 to be 39% margins going forward. And we think that we have a lot of capabilities to deliver on that goal, and that's embedded in that is the 50 basis points of margin expansion, which is up from the that we've done historically. And we think that's a very attractive growth rate for Equifax that allows us to deliver margins and free cash flow that allow us to invest in bolt-on M&A and also return cash to shareholders while continuing to invest in Equifax. We think there's a lot of leverage in investing in new products and new data, new capabilities to drive our top line. And as you know, our incremental margins are extremely high. So as we drive that top line, it really continues to drive our margins going forward. So a really big deal. The cloud savings, NPIs, the bigger impact of Workforce Solutions and operating leverage, really driving our margins up to 39% is our goal by 2025. And this gives us a lot of capacity for M&A and return of capital to shareholders. Our free cash flow continues to accelerate with that top line growth, with margin expansion, and of course, our cash flow -- our CapEx coming down going forward. This gives us a lot of free cash flow. In 2021, about $640 million. Next year, we think closer to $800 million. And as we run out to 2025, you've got a business in Equifax generating in the neighborhood of $1.5 billion of free cash flow going forward, plus the impact of leverage gives us close to $2 billion, $1.9 billion of capacity to do bolt-on M&A on an annual basis when you get out in that run rate along with returning cash to shareholders. So we think that's a pretty exciting business going forward that allows us a lot of flexibility to really continue to grow and invest in Equifax while returning cash to shareholders going forward. And we'll talk more about that as we think -- as our capital allocation framework. Bolt-on M&A, we've tried to be quite deliberate about that. You see our historical bolt-on M&A, $300 million to $500 million has kind of been the run rate. Over the last couple of years, particularly in '18, '19 and '20, less. And then, of course, this year, we saw some real opportunities, particularly with Kount and Appriss that we're opportunistic to really strengthen our identity and fraud business and strength in Workforce Solutions, which is why we're close to $3 billion of M&A going forward. In our financial model, to deliver the 100 to 200 basis points of top line growth, we would expect to spend somewhere between $750 million to $1 billion of our free cash flow going forward on bolt-on M&A. And we've also been very deliberate about how we think about M&A. Really, 3 key priorities. One is differentiated data. And if you look at the acquisitions we've done, they've all delivered that differentiated data. Second, it's to strengthen broader workforce, our largest business. whether it's Appriss, Health e(fx), some of the acquisitions we've done this year. We're going to continue to look at how do we widen and leverage the core of our income and employment data in new verticals like talent and government and others. And then third is growing the identity and fraud, big TAM, big growth opportunity. It's one Sid will talk about, but Kount directly addressed that, and a really exciting space for us. It's growing very rapidly. Our financial criteria is clear. We have a very deliberate strategy around how we're going to do M&A. We look for our M&A to be accretive to our revenue and margins, meaning the acquisitions are going to grow faster than the core of Equifax. So they're going to be accretive to our top and bottom line. They're going to be EPS accretive. And then last is leveraging the cloud. I mentioned earlier that the cloud gives us real confidence in doing M&A that we can integrate more quickly and realize those synergies that come from multidata assets or really the other cases that we have around why we want to do the M&A. So accretive and bolt-on M&A is really central to our long-term strategy, and you'll see us continue to do that going forward in the areas that I've talked about. So the new Equifax, we think we're just getting started. We're 4 years into what we are characterizing now is the new Equifax, a 120-year-old company that we've remade over the last 4 years. We still got work to do to finish the cloud transformation. We still got work to do to continue to drive our new products and our new capabilities going forward. But we believe that this is a different company, and it's reflected in our financial goals that we have that we're sharing with you in our long-term framework. Really driving to 8% to 12% growth rate and a $7 billion company in 2025 is really what our internal goals are around the new Equifax, with margins at 39%. And if you look at the change in Equifax, it's really meaningful. Our technology was legacy, now it's cloud-based. And you'll hear about that from Bryson and the business unit leaders. Our data was siloed, now it's a Single Data Fabric that allows us to really bring solutions to our customers like we couldn't do before. We always focused on NPIs. We've doubled down on that, more resources, more people and the ability to leverage the cloud and our differentiated data to bring solutions to market that we couldn't do before. NPI is very product-centric. We now have a member of my leadership team, who's our product leader, Cecilia Mao, works for Bryson. Bryson is leading our product capabilities, he'll talk about that. This is a big deal at Equifax, really leveraging our cloud and our differentiated data to drive new solutions to market. Workforce Solutions is a very unique business and clearly our strongest business at Equifax. It's a business that has a unique data set that we think is very, very powerful. And if you look back at Equifax over the decade plus, we've owned Workforce Solutions, it's really pivoted from being a very important business at Equifax to being our largest business. And it was really a pivot point when we got over 50% of nonfarm payroll really 2 years ago, roughly in that time frame, where we've really seen a lot of capabilities of really driving the data going forward. Workforce has differentiated data, income and employment. Is Mark working? How much does he make? Instantly. Isn't available anywhere else. And that scale of that data set, you'll hear from Rudy and a big deal when we think about the business going forward. M&A, clearly an accelerated focus, but a disciplined focus around those 3 priorities I laid out earlier. Security, table stakes, you'll hear from Jamil on that. And then from a culture standpoint, we were inwardly focused when I joined 4 years ago. Some of that came from focusing on the cyber event. We're a different company today. We've got a different team. You'll see and hear from them this morning, and we've got a different focus. I hope you're as energized as we are, and you guys feel of my energy around the new Equifax. We're really just getting started in our ability to leverage the cloud that we're still completing, and we're excited about the time ahead. So we've got a great agenda for you this morning. We'll start with Jamil and Bryson. Bryson is going to take you through our technology and product and really how that's changing Equifax and how we're leveraging that going forward. Jamil will talk about our security and how that's table stakes. And we think that's a really competitive differentiator for Equifax. And then Rudy, Sid and Lisa will come up and give you an update on Workforce Solutions, USIS and International, and how they're leveraging the cloud to drive growth going forward. And then John will come up and really further enhance some of the financial levers. And then I'll come up and wrap up, and we'll look forward to some Q&A. And now I'd like to welcome up Bryson and Jamil to really take us through how we're leveraging the new Equifax cloud to power innovation, new product, security and growth. Bryson and Jamil, come on up. All yours.
Bryson Koehler
executiveThanks, Mark.
Jamil Farshchi
executiveIt's great to be here today. It's great to see you.
Bryson Koehler
executiveI always love being with you. Yes. So I'm Bryson Kaylor. I'm the Chief Technology Officer at Equifax. And with me is my good friend, my partner and colleague, Jamil Farshchi, our Chief Information and Security Officer. Over the last 3 years, we have rebuilt Equifax as a cloud-native data analytics and technology company. You heard from Mark how we have redesigned our technology and security infrastructure to operate with the agility of a fintech but backed by the scale of more than 120 years of expertise in this industry. Now in the past 12 months, we've increased performance and uptime of our products and the volume and pace of new product innovation. It's been transformative on all fronts. Now importantly, we have moved from our previously siloed data assets into a Single Data Fabric, which completely changes our approach to data management and revolutionizes the products that we can provide as well as the speed with which we can develop them. I'm going to spend more time talking about this today. Our strategy will drive 200 to 300 basis points of additional growth with our cloud-native investments Equifax is now well positioned to outperform our traditional competitors and push into new markets that redefine our competitive landscape. Today, I'll highlight some of the milestones we've achieved in our transformation so far, and the capabilities that are driving our future growth. First, how do we define Equifax cloud? So simply put, it is our unique implementation of a public cloud infrastructure that is designed to meet the needs of our highly regulated data environment. Through more than 250 common services, we can maximize the total value of our differentiated data portfolio and expand our ability to provide real-time decisioning. The Equifax cloud is not a lift and shift approach. We have rewritten our code, reingested and rekeyed our data in the cloud. We have remained actively committed to the principles of automation, consistency, repeatability and scalability for our current and future generation of products. And that work is yielding significant benefits, which we'll discuss more. No other credit reporting agency has brought all of their assets together in a fully integrated cloud native framework. And that scale and integration is precisely how the Equifax cloud has moved us far beyond the scope of a traditional CRA. Now I want to start out by providing some highlights of our progress on this journey. As you know, we set out to transform first in the United States with International as a [ fast ] follow. And we've come a long way against our plan. Almost 90% of our U.S. applications will be rebuilt and decommissioned by the end of the year. Our global platform capabilities are now live on 7 Google Cloud regions around the world. We are on our way to completing more than 115,000 customer migrations by the end of the year. And we're tracking to finish the majority of our migrations in North America by early 2022. Nearly $2 billion of our global revenue will be generated in the cloud by the end of this year. I'm proud and humbled to see the progress we've made, but I'm extremely proud for being externally recognized for all of the efforts we have put in. You may have seen the recent announcement that Google Cloud named Equifax as the Customer of The Year in our sector. I believe that is a testament to our best-in-class use of cloud technology and our tenacity and implementation, achieving expansive margin growth while delivering operational benefits is at the top of our priority list. Our efforts to combine capabilities, reduce duplication and remove legacy equipment is what's driving our results. So far, we've closed 12 data centers, we've reduced 4 megatons of carbon emissions, and we've reduced over 1,200 duplicative products globally, all of which create energy and resource savings. Now these metrics are strong indicators of how we will deliver in a more nimble and efficient way as we move forward. With our cloud-native architecture, our customers are seeing a significant lift in speed and performance. We reduced the complexity of our infrastructure by 50%, which allows us to remove unnecessary hops in our product portfolio. As a result, our mortgage platform, as an example, has seen a 3,500% increase in performance for end users. Being in multiple availability zones and regions in each location around the world, the Equifax cloud is running at [ 4 9s ] of end user measured availability. That's far better than legacy environments can achieve. And as I've already referenced, perhaps the most impactful element of our transformation is how we've revolutionized our approach to data management. Siloed data is a huge challenge in our industry. Equifax is now the only company in our space that has implemented a system to bring all of our enterprise data together in every region, business unit and product line with a common key for every person, place and thing that we catalog. Our global data fabric unifies more than 100 data silos into a single platform. Our keying and linking process has been simplified from 15 systems down to 1. This allows us to assign a key to each entity in our ecosystem. For example, a consumer and then link all of the relevant data signals to it in perpetuity, forming a 360-degree view of each identity in our trust that adapts and learns over time. This is truly game changing in the data field and it empowers our data scientists with more efficiency and intelligence to innovate our data models. We're already seeing a considerable payoff from these improvements. In fact, we've realized a 16% increase in match accuracy in the telecom and utility space, which results in more confident model execution. This macro shift from a snapshot view to a trended composite view for each data entity is not just a major advancement for Equifax and our customers, but really for our industry at large. Our cloud capabilities and data fabric are helping us deliver new products with assets from multiple data sources in ways we could only imagine before. We now have more than 250 billion records keyed and linked in a common format, allowing us to stream data on demand to our data scientists, eliminating the months of labor required in the past to prepare complex data sets. We have implemented data governance at the field level to ensure 100% compliance with our privacy commitments with the rules we can now customize to meet the needs of changing market conditions or regulatory requirements. World-class data management is beyond encryption. It is about ensuring the full and proper usage of data across its entire lineage. So far, we have configured more than 50,000 rules in our data fabric, deconstructed and applied at a field level. So we can deploy machine learning capabilities against our data without having to slow down the pipeline to production. Now throughout today, you're going to hear from our business unit leaders about our heightened focus on product management. Our progress of moving from projects to multigenerational products is a huge benefit to our customers who want evergreen products that grow with them. Our enhancements are generating a far more efficient pipeline to convert ideas into products that drive value for our customers. And in turn, that helps consumers live their financial best. We will continue to improve every touch point from data fabric to our identity portfolio, to our analytics and our real-time decisioning. This new pace of innovation has enabled us to launch 115 new products in the first 3 quarters of the year. Over the last 24 months, our average time to market has improved by 45%. Those are record rates in both product volume and pace. And not only is this approach fueling our existing product lines, but it's extending our reach into the new product lines, we didn't think were possible. Now one key area where we expect continued growth and expansion, and we are committed to earning the right to lead is on an identity and fraud. Our acquisition of Kount enables us to flow real-time retail transactions into our 22 global identity products and our 22 global fraud products. Many of these have been rebuilt over the last year and relaunched in a more modern cloud-native data environment. And Kount is also helping eliminate the need for many third-party data assets that we've relied on in the past. This will help us improve our unit cost of delivery. Our graph database capabilities that are expanding on data fabric allow us to hone in on fraud patterns and they anticipate the and our tests have shown fraud detection improvements of up to 15%. We can now package up and deliver these enhancements in new ways, not just as a stand-alone product, but as a complete portfolio of capabilities. So for example, we've rolled out a new digital identity as a service offering to help customers manage their custom fraud, identity and risk profiles. Our identity capabilities, building on the global data fabric, positions us to serve a broader set of use cases, verticals and opportunities. To execute on this strategy, we dedicated 2 things: One, making our products the easiest to consume; and second, meeting our customers where they are through a variety of distribution options and digital marketplaces. The expanded focus on NPIs doesn't stop with frauded identity. We have redesigned how our product teams operate to idea to develop and to bring products to market and to ensure the new products meet the market needs. We're now launching products at a volume 60% higher than our pre-transformation era. But it's not just about launching new products. We're focused on ensuring strong revenue growth and strengthening our vitality index, which is the revenue that comes from new products each year. We'll continue to drive a balance between multigenerational product lines and net new product launches each year, all leveraging the unified data from the Equifax cloud. Now the real power of our cloud is in automation and standardization. We now have a service catalog of reusable composable components that can be rapidly and easily assembled into products. Many of the conversations you'll be hearing from later today from our business units are underpinned by a few global capabilities that can be deployed across our product lines. Data fabric services with keying and linking of data assets provide the foundation for multi-data assets and multi-data insights. Cloud-native analytic capabilities are driving co-innovation with improved Ignite offerings. Our advanced decisioning capabilities with InterConnect are fueling the exponential growth of our verification product lines as well as our expansion in identity and fraud and continued our innovation around credit risk and employment products. But none of our advancements would be possible without our transformed security measures. I'm really glad that Jamil is here with me to share an update on how we've transformed our security and built it into our technology. Jamil and his team are invaluable partners to us in this journey that we've been on so far. Jamil?
Jamil Farshchi
executiveI'm Jamil Farsi, and I lead security at Equifax. Today's cyber challenges are unprecedented, attacks on companies, governments and individuals, they're more prevalent and complex and more impactful than ever. Anyone and everyone is a target, and the stakes have never been higher. So I want to spend just a few minutes speaking with you about the state of cybersecurity and our program here at Equifax, and why security is a preeminent focus for us. Over the past 3 years, we've invested over $1.5 billion to rebuild our security and technology systems from the ground up. So while today's cyber challenges are unprecedented, Equifax is ready. Our new cloud environment has given us real-time visibility into our cloud infrastructure, rock solid defensive capabilities and top-tier detection and response, all to a degree that's never been possible before. We've also hired more than 500 highly skilled cybersecurity professionals who come from top global firms and government agencies. And many of those people work in our brand-new multimillion-dollar fusion center. The facility that allows us to monitor the entire environment in real-time 24/7 to respond to threats with speed and precision. Just as importantly, we've developed a security-first culture at Equifax. We're making sure that our 12,000 employees deeply understand security. They're our frontline, so they're trained constantly to spot threats and account for security in every single thing that they do. We even developed a program that gives every employee visibility into their specific security behaviors and performance, along with clear actions to be able to improve their scores. Few companies have dedicated more time and resources to ensuring its customer information is protected. But this isn't just about us. We're using our investments and expertise and security to help our customers become more cyber resilient. One example of this is the Equifax cloud control. That's a first of its kind capability. It gives our customers real-time visibility into the security of the Equifax products that they leverage, which translates into greater transparency and defense of our digital supply chains. So here is the bottom line. There is little, if any, aspect of our security program that hasn't been completely overhauled since 2017. And the results speak volumes. In multiple independent ratings, our security capabilities now exceed that of major industry benchmarks. And earlier, Bryson mentioned our partnership. Collaboration between security and technology teams is absolutely critical. It's how we ensure that security is built in, not bolted on. Taken together, our technology, our capabilities, our expertise it's clear that security has become a competitive advantage for Equifax. We can now meet new regulatory requirements and quickly adapt to the ever-changing cyber threat landscape in ways that few others can. I'm incredibly proud of the Equifax team for putting security first, and I'm inspired by the collaboration with our customers and partners and government to strengthen global cybersecurity for all. Thank you, and back to you, Bryson.
Bryson Koehler
executiveThanks, Jamil. That's really awesome to see technology, security and product coming together in just such a natural way.
Jamil Farshchi
executiveIt's so powerful.
Bryson Koehler
executiveIt is really amazing to us because our security is such a critical piece in our transformation. Since we now have more automation in our security controls and data governance, it opens the door for artificial intelligence to be infused across the entire value chain of the Equifax cloud. In the months and years to come, we will amplify our approach to AI and infuse improvements at every stage of our data outcomes pipeline. This will lead to robust insight and more impactful outcomes for our customers because with trillions of data signals flowing through our system, artificial intelligence has the ability to grow impact exponentially over time. In fact, AI is critical to augmenting our world-class data scientists as we seek to improve decisioning across all of our business units. Improving accuracy how we ingest, catalog and key and link all of the data sources is critical to outpacing our competitors. Applying AI to drive this degree and scale of impact is only possible with a cloud-native data fabric. The time and effort and significant resource outlay of our transformation has given us a tremendous first-mover advantage. All of our growth is possible only because of our aggressive commitment to automation, reusability and consistency. But this is not just a story of how Equifax has become more efficient. Our new capabilities give us a fundamental edge in the marketplace, better data, more data, richer data. Better linking, more complete linking, more accuracy, more confident decisions, faster product development. No competitor without a globally cloud-native foundation can achieve new data assets this quickly and activate them and pivot with precision to meet regulations across geographies or deploy innovation with such consistency and speed at the enterprise level. Our transformation has been truly holistic and not only a top-down commitment and unprecedented capital injection, but with the internal reconstruction required to embed a new operating model of innovation across our culture. As we move into the next stage, we believe the culmination of this hard work will have a flywheel effect, allowing us to widen the gap against our competitors well into the future. So Mark, that's our product, technology and security update over to you.
Mark Begor
executiveBryson and Jamil, thanks. I hope you got a sense for the power of the new Equifax cloud, our focus on innovation, new products and the underlying strength of our security infrastructure. Bryson and Jamil, great job. Thanks very much. So now we'd like to move to an update by our 3 business unit leaders. And I'd like to welcome up Rudy Ploder, who runs Workforce Solutions; Lisa Nelson, who runs International; and Sid Singh, who runs our USIS business. Rudy, I think you're going to kick off. It's all yours.
Rodolfo Ploder
executiveThank you, Mark. It is really great to have a chance to share all that we have done over the past few years in Workflow Solutions, and I am even more energized about what we have ahead. Over the past few years, we have delivered very strong year-over-year revenue growth. But even with that base, we still believe we have room to achieve continued 13% to 15% annual growth across our new long-term financial framework. That begins with continued expansion of the Work Number database, which is our most differentiated and most valuable data asset. It also means driving further growth in key verticals, such as talent solutions and government while leaning into our growth levers. As we have seen in 2021, bolt-on M&A has played a role in our growth, and we expect that to continue. And we are continuing to build out the Workforce Solutions data hub with new types of data that are opening up expanded use cases. Our success is based on our dual-sided business model. I'd like to use this slide to explain that model. In the center, you see the Workforce Solutions data hub, which features the Work Number database, the industry-leading centralized database of income and employment information in the United States. Then as we show in purple, we are adding new differentiated data sources to further build out our data hub. We are adding education, data through our new exclusive integration with the National Student Clearinghouse. We have also added incarceration and other data through the recent Insights acquisition that you heard about from Mark. On the left-hand side of this slide, we describe our supply networks with over 500 million payroll records, both active and historic within the Work Number database. And those records come from more than 2 million different employers with about 60% direct and 40% through payroll partners. On the right-hand side, we have demand networks. This is the verifier client base that we have built up through the decades, including lenders, government agencies, background screeners and others. Last year alone, they came to us with more than 500 million inquiries into the Work Number. So in summary, on the left, we have supply networks, providing us with rich and growing sources of data that feed into the middle, which is the Workforce Solutions data hub. On the right, we have our demand networks. That is the means through which we monetize the data primarily through verifications. That dual-sided business model has enabled us to achieve very strong revenue growth with a CAGR of 27% from 2017 through 2021 while expanding our margins. And we still have a long runway for growth in the coming years. And that growing revenue is diversified across several verticals. With the 5 lines of business on the right-hand side of the pie chart now making up more than half of our revenue. Looking ahead, we are projecting 13% to 15% annual revenue growth in the coming years, driven largely by Verification Services. As you can see, we expect to drive most of that growth through a few important levers. First, record growth. By this, we mean payroll records that fuel the Work Number database. While the Work Number has incredible coverage, we still have room to grow. And more records, we can complete more revenue-generating transactions for our customers. Second, cloud and new product innovation. We are leveraging the Equifax cloud to help drive continued innovation, particularly in our talent and mortgage verticals. We also see opportunities to drive growth through Verification Services, pricing and penetration as well as through Employer Services. I spoke about our current diversification. Looking out, over the next 3 years, we expect to diversify our revenue streams even further. In fact, we project that our government, talent and employer services businesses will grow at twice the rate of our businesses that serve the financial sector. In total, that should shift our percentage of non-mortgage revenue from a healthy 53% in 2021 to an even more diversified 61% in 2024. The Work Number database is Equifax' most valuable and most differentiated data source. As you can see, we have access to 125 million active payroll records, covering 97 million individuals across more than 2 million employers. And overall, we have access to more than 500 million records, both active and historical. That depth of coverage is important because in some use cases, our customers need a more complete employment or income history that is provided in the current payroll period. Even with these huge gains, we still have significant room to grow as we have built the network number over the past 25 years, we have established long-term relationships directly with many employers as well as with the largest payroll partners. We have a strong value proposition for them. And we continue to show significant year-over-year growth with those 2 primary groups of record contributors. Additionally, we plan to round out our offering by adding contractor and pension data. The Work Number is the cornerstone of our Verification Services business and has really become known as the gold standard for verification of employment and income. Last year alone, we delivered, on average, 7 verifications every second every day through our frictionless process that fits seamlessly into our customers' workflows. Also, our operating model provides full transparency to all stakeholders. The consumer authorizes the verifier to obtain employment or income data. The employer is aware that it is providing payroll data for verification purposes. The verifier knows that it is getting information directly from the employer's payroll feed. Another distinctive feature of verifications powered by the Work Number is that they are governed by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which builds further transparency, security and privacy into the process. The FCRA assures that anyone who obtains data will be credentialed and will use the data only for a specified permissible purpose. The FCRA, along with the work numbers, consumer-friendly business rules, assures that the consumer will be able to obtain full disclosure of the data as well as a list of all entities that have requested that data over a 2-year period. And the FCRA, along with the work number of business practices, also provides assurance that the data will not be used for marketing. All of that adds up to what you see on the right, which is the Work Number is the very best experience for all stakeholders, providing best-in-class security, privacy, quality and client experience. Let me take just a moment to highlight a few products across the 3 largest verifier verticals. All of our verification solutions are delivered with a social security number only search. This provides a seamless process for the verifier while providing a frictionless process for the consumer. We have a full suite of mortgage solutions to meet the broad needs of homebuyers. From an individual with a [indiscernible] only to multiple borrowers with complex income sources. In addition, our complete coverage solutions allow a lender to choose from a suite of instant verification products and to supplement that service as needed with our new priority next day and priority to the manual verifications. Overall, that adds up to the most complete and efficient verification coverage available. Our talent reports for background screening verifications have a similar unique position in the marketplace. The Talent Report Select All provides a full history of the candidates employment records. We are also launching a new bundled product that will provide employment, identity and education verifications with a single inquiry, requiring only a single social security number data input. Government exchanges provide a differentiated offering to the market as well. Our CMS and SSA exchanges provide unique employment and income verification for the centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services and the Social Security Administration, respectively, helping to ensure that beneficiaries receive access to qualifying benefits as quickly and as seamlessly possible. Across our portfolio, we are leveraging the Equifax Cloud capabilities to drive innovation and growth that begins with our data-driven and problem-based approach that you can see on the left. We start with analysis and ideation, which, for us, means analyzing customer data and understanding client behavior. Then we move into rapid development and deployment where we deepened our relationships and understanding of the client workflow and use places to identify new data or new applications of existing data. The third phase is refinement and iteration, which means providing and improving the customer experience by balancing client usability with business viability and technical feasibility. As you can see from multiple examples on this slide, we are deploying cloud technologies to the benefit of our major lines of business, mortgage, talent, government and I-9. While Mortgage is a large vertical for the Work Number verifications, we still have significant room to grow and to outperform the overall market in the area of mortgage. First, as I mentioned earlier, we are growing the Work Number records, which helps us fulfill a higher percentage of verification requests. Second, we are working to improve our participation in loans, while we currently receive the Work Number inquiries for about 60% of loans, that means we still have about 40% to penetrate. And third, we are working to improve activity per loan. In other words, having more the Work Number verifications per loan. With these strong levers, we expect to outperform the mortgage market in the future. As you can see, we have a strong track record of outperforming the mortgage market. Even in environments where the mortgage market is down, we continue to grow. That's because we have numerous growth levers at our disposal, record new products, pricing and penetration. Now let's turn to our fast-growing Talent solutions business. About 75 million people are hired each year in the United States. Employers spent about $4,000 per hire, and we are a subset of that spend. Our verifications play an important and growing role in that space. We have sized this as a $5 billion addressable market that continues to grow. From a strategy perspective, we are focused on a handful of growth levers. We are driving increased utilization by encouraging customers to move our verifications to the top of their waterfalls. We are also launching new products, including multi-data solutions that may combine traditional employment data with other data sources, such as education. In addition, we are developing industry-specific solutions designed to meet the needs of certain verticals while also leveraging system-to-system integrations to reduce friction and increase transaction volumes. Ultimately, our verifications deliver significant value for employers. As I mentioned, they are spending about $4,000 per new hire. So they want to make sure they get it right. Our solutions help ensure they are able to gain access to the talent they need to grow their businesses and to do so quickly and efficiently and in a way that helps them remain compliant. We are also driving significant growth in the government vertical. About 88 million adults received social service benefits each year in the U.S. We have sized this as a $2 billion TAM. From a strategy perspective, we are focused on a handful of growth levers. We are delivering higher value solutions through our key client program while driving increased penetration through system-to-system transactions and multi-data solutions. In addition, we are leaning into our alliance partnership to expand our reach while seeking to launch and optimize additional federal verification exchanges. Ultimately, our verifications deliver significant value for all parties, beneficiaries, employers and government agencies. By leveraging the Work Number, we are able to deliver direct from the source data efficiently, quickly and privately, as we help government agencies deliver important social services benefits to those in need. Earlier, I shared our dual-side business model and introduced the concept of the Workforce Solutions data hub. That data hub really serves as the engine for our fast-growing talent and government verticals. And what you see highlighted here in purple is the result of some big moves we made during the past few months. First, we announced an exclusive integration with a National Student Clearinghouse. That brings access to academic records from 99% in of all U.S. public and private postsecondary institutions. Second, we acquired Appriss Insights, bringing with it health care credentials data for 5 million individuals as well as $170 million incarceration records, $600 million court records and more. As a result, this data hub can start to offer our talent solutions and government customers more than our traditional verifications of employment and income. It also enables us to launch new multi-data solutions, providing employment data alongside, for example, education data, medical certification data and incarceration data. We expect our insights business to deliver a strong $75 million in revenue synergies by 2025, both Equifax Workforce Solutions and Appriss Insights already had significant business within the talent and government verticals. Together, we have numerous opportunities to grow. In talent solutions, we will leverage more data sources from our data hub to develop new and improved product bundles. These bundles offer a greater value proposition across more industries than ever before. This will enable us to be considered in more verifications as we move to the top of the waterfall and drive more growth. In government, we have opportunities to grow through continuous monitoring in the unemployment and Medicaid areas. We will also extend our reach by leveraging existing clients, combining distribution channels and strengthening our alliance relationships. Plus, we are always looking to innovate more with our customers. We will accelerate our opportunities as we leverage unique Equifax capabilities and our expanded data hub to deliver more product innovation in order to drive further growth across these and other verticals. Today, I have focused much of our conversation on our larger Verification Services business. But I will also like to take a moment to talk about Employer Services. Our Employer Services business provides a strong engine for obtaining and retaining the Work Number records. As I mentioned earlier, more than 60% of the Work Number records come directly from employers, many of whom also purchased our employer services such as I-9, and E-Verify employer tax credits, Affordable Care Act management, unemployment claims management and more. One of the greatest growth drivers in our Employer Services business is our I-9 solution. Form I-9 is a federal requirement to demonstrate eligibility to work in the United States. We are the I-9 experts, and we help employers ensure this process is completed correctly, efficiently and anywhere across the country. As we wrap up today, I hope you can sense just how energized them are about the future of Workforce Solutions. We have a track record of delivering consistent double-digit revenue growth over the past few years and have a clear strategy to deliver 13% to 15% annual growth in the years to come. I am now going to turn it over to Sid.
Sid Singh
executiveThanks, Rudy. I'm Sid Singh, and I'm responsible for the U.S. Information Solutions business unit. I'm going to cover 3 things today: number one, how we are leveraging our cloud investments; number two, our differentiated data assets, including our acquisitions and partnerships; and finally, how USIS is driving a new product innovation-led long-term growth framework. The USIS business is now positioned for a 6% to 8% long-term growth framework, better than what this unit has historically delivered. Here are the key drivers of growth. First and foremost, in a post-pandemic and digital-first world, every single customer is looking to say "yes" more to their customers. They also want to help finding new customers while offering them frictionless and personalized experiences. This digital-first trend is uniquely powered by differentiated data that only Equifax has. An additional growth driver is digital identity. Only Equifax has the unique ability to combine the 32 billion annual digital signals we acquired through our Kount acquisition, along with the core information to enable smarter e-commerce, which is a $3 trillion market. Thirdly, we're also generating market share growth in the commercial B2B market, powered by our differentiated data acquisitions. Additionally, we're leveraging our unique data to drive more innovation in the mortgage space to drive above-market growth. Supporting all of this growth, we have undertaken a fundamental transformation of our USIS commercial sales and go-to-market model. And we are already seeing significant new business gains as a result. I will share more detail, but first, I want to start by taking a bit of time about the USIS business model and the total addressable market opportunity. We have 3 major lines of businesses: risk; marketing; and identity. We have comprehensive, very differentiated and proprietary data sets across these lines of businesses that deliver actionable insights. IDC estimates the big data and analytics TAM to be $109 billion in North America. And as you can see from this page, we already operate in large markets with large TAMs. What powers our growth is our unique data. You'll see that we have some of the most differentiated assets at scale. For instance, Core Credit more than 1.6 billion trade lines with information on 220 million plus consumers. Our cable, telco and utility exchange that is proprietary to Equifax has information on 220 million consumers across 0.5 billion accounts. Our acquisitions of DataX and Teletrack provide our customers access to 80 million unbanked, underbanked and credit rebuilding consumers, which speaks to enabling their need to provide greater access to credit. Our partnerships for cash flow data give us information on balances, deposits and withdrawals from more than 7,700 participating U.S. FIs allowing our customers access to more than 99% of the U.S. population. Our proprietary IXI exchange provides wealth information with $20 trillion in anonymized assets and investments. And of course, Kount, which we recently acquired, giving us 32 billion unique digital interactions. Commercial B2B underwriting, our proprietary CFN exchange powered with acquisitions of PayNet and Ansonia. We now have information on 134 million businesses across 161 million trade lines. These are very unique data assets at scale, information that only Equifax has that outperforms the competition. In addition to data assets, USIS also has a very diversified portfolio across markets, and we continue to diversify further. There is a significant opportunity for expansion in many of these key markets, including auto, e-commerce, fintechs and buy now pay later, without being overexposed to any one particular market. We are traditionally a risk-based business. Consumer debt, which is currently at $14.5 trillion powers the U.S. economy and allows us significant opportunity to grow. Our customers are constantly looking to layer in differentiated and alternative data, coupled with insights that matter to give a holistic view of their consumer. So in addition to consumer risk, we also have an established presence in marketing, in identity and commercial risk. Again, these are large available TAMs and strong vectors for us to expand further. The USIS long-term framework is better than our historical framework. Our 6% to 8% growth will be driven by 4 main drivers. Number one, growth in our core markets powered by a strong U.S. consumer; number two, our recent acquisition of Kount in the digital identity space that allows us to accelerate growth in e-commerce, fintech, buy now pay later as well as a traditional FI and telco markets. We also see growth from cloud-led multi-data asset products, which I will touch upon in more detail; and the final driver of the long-term framework is a combination of market share expansion, getting into adjacent markets and pricing. So let me go deeper into the drivers of growth. I will start with cloud-led NPI. You heard from Bryson earlier today on the power of the Equifax Cloud and its ability to drive new product innovation at a record pace. The proof point is that more than 40 new products will be introduced within USIS by year-end. And what's most impressive about these NPIs is that they truly transform how we engage with customers. We're now able to provide real-time streaming data, higher velocity data, better data recency and the ability to configure data into unique workflows. I'm excited to share some notable examples of new products that have been launched across risk, marketing and identity. In risk, for instance, we launched the OneView report for businesses, an industry-first solution that allows alternative data assets like the Work Number and DataX, which is specialty finance information to be requested and viewed alongside traditional credit data. This is a powerful tool for our clients to build their customer bases and expand access to credit. We're also growing in the marketing and identity spaces. On the identity side, we're seeing significant progress in the investments we've made into the Luminate platform based on our identity foundry product as well as digital data from Kount. These products are not just being consumed by standard FIs but also by fintechs, buy now pay later providers and alternative finance companies. With all these new product launches, we're winning customer share of wallet. We're helping organizations to say "yes" more and say "yes" more confidently. Here are 3 customer examples. Our top fintech card lender was able to say "yes" more by scoring 99% of the applications they were getting by leveraging Equifax alternative data, including NCTUE. A leading FI was able to use our real-time smart alerts data streaming product to drive 225% improvement in their account and portfolio management. An alternative lender was able to improve response rates to their marketing campaigns by 50% by leveraging our proprietary data model, which included NeuroDecision Technology and alternative data, including specialty finance information from DataX. Our clients aren't leaving money on the table because we're helping them to identify new strategies to build a stronger business. I'll now quickly touch on mortgage. USIS and Workforce Solutions share a common growth vector, above-market growth rate in mortgage, fueled by innovation, share gain and pricing. We're leveraging new product innovations like undisclosed debt monitoring and the Work Number at the point of sale. We have launched new analytical capabilities, including our Ignite sandbox, our Lost Sales Analysis product and analytical data panels. We're connected with the digital mortgage solutions providers. We're connected with the point-of-sale companies and reconnected with connectors. And only Equifax has a unique dual distribution model with an enterprise go-to-market, meaning we have a single enterprise mortgage team that delivers all mortgage products to bear, including the Work Number. We are the only national bureau to have that competitive advantage. All of these power 4% to 6% above market growth in mortgage for USIS. Also within the mortgage ecosystem, we're uniquely positioned to capitalize on the macro trend of access to credit. What I mean by this is that there is significant interest from customers, regulators and various other stakeholders to drive home ownership. For 20 million young thin-file consumers or the 200,000-plus first-time homebuyers, cash flow insights, utility data and other alternative sources can help responsibly make the dream of home ownership a reality for more consumers. And as you can see, we have the data to help every single mortgage originator with this need. We and only Equifax can help score more customers by leveraging our alternative data. Next, I want to quickly touch on a very exciting growth vector powered by Kount acquisition. As I mentioned earlier, e-commerce is a $3 trillion market, and we're now participating and growing our presence in that space. Digitization and the need for safe, frictionless online experiences, are also driving our approach to identity solutions where Kount's unique digital signals give us a competitive edge. The identity market is also a massive opportunity at $19 billion of TAM. We have moved rapidly to address this opportunity and have already launched new products. For instance, our Digital Identity Trust product suite, Kount Command 2.0 for identifying fraud at the point of sale and authorization optimization. I will quickly touch upon how Kount has made a tremendous impact at a leading U.S. wireless provider that was looking to improve their customer experience. We combined authoritative identity data from Equifax and Kount to build a view that accelerated approvals for good actors and screened the bad. This enhanced their scoring strategy and improved the client experience. It also generated significant gains in revenue and savings to the tune of $86 million in loss avoidance annually and $52 million in additional revenue through the acquisition of more customers. Our innovation enabled them to focus on high-value initiatives versus manual reviews. This is what we mean when we say we're helping customers say "yes" more. Next, I'd like to touch upon our growth opportunity in the commercial B2B market. The commercial B2B market has a lot of untapped opportunities ripe for innovation. There are 30 million small businesses in the U.S. that represent $10 trillion of GDP and a total addressable market of $2 billion. The challenge, there's a big data gap in the market. Fragmented sources and manual processes mean expensive data solutions, especially for small businesses and mid-market clients. Many of the large enterprise solutions out there simply aren't nimble enough to keep pace. Through our proprietary CFN data exchange, which is powered by acquisitions of PayNet and Ansonia, we now have information on $4.7 trillion in debt obligations across 134 million business identities and 161 million trade lines. And this is driving proven customer results in the market. For example, we saw 40% better results in hit rates for a leading security services provider. We also saw a 6% higher approval rate without increasing delinquencies for a top 10 bank. We increased top of funnel marketing by almost $400 million for a leading wireless provider. And finally, supporting our efforts is a full transformation of our sales model and approach. Transforming our sales model to be a partner of choice where Equifax becomes a true trusted adviser. Let me share some facts with you. 50% of our sales organization has been refreshed with new talent over the past 2.5 years. We've also added 25% more capacity to our sales team. We have launched Equifax university and completed 12,000 total hours of sales training this year. We launched a new role family that did not exist, customer success managers that are working every day with our customers to drive better utilization and adoption of our data products. We have also launched a consulting organization. Equifax also introduced an InnovationX immersive experience, a testing ground for new data and analytics products solving tough customer problems. And as a result of all these investments, we've seen substantial increases in our Net Promoter Score and new business bookings, both very strong leading indicators. So in summary, our path to growth in USIS is built on our ability to help customers say "yes" more confidently. It's built on strides we're making in digital identity. It's powered by the cloud in driving new product innovations. It's powered by commercial B2B growth and above mortgage market growth. It's also fueled by its sales transformation that puts customers first in everything we do. This is an exciting period of USIS growth, and there's much, much more to come. Now I'll hand it over to Lisa.
Lisa Nelson
executiveThank you, Sid. By way of introduction, my name is Lisa Nelson, and I began leading the International team in June of this year. I just celebrated my tenth anniversary with Equifax having most recently led the Asia Pacific region. As we look to deliver on our EFX 2023 strategy, International is well structured to deliver above-market revenue growth and outperform our competition. Our cloud transformation detailed by Bryson today plays a key role in that growth. By optimizing our cloud-based global technology framework, we're able to drive relevant market-focused innovation. We're able to scale and adapt for the specific needs of the countries in which we operate. At the same time, we'll also focus on bringing more of our existing Equifax enterprise strengths into our International regions. As we look ahead, I am confident that our business unit will overcome unsteady organic growth challenges that we've experienced over the last few years. We expect to deliver 7% to 9% growth going forward. We'll get there by fueling new product innovation with even more differentiated data, data that can be scaled and configured to the needs of customers in each country we serve. You'll hear me talk a lot today about the unique needs of these countries. Our international business has presence in 23 markets. To best meet the needs of these diverse locations, we are organized around 4 geographic regions with varying competitive environments and strengths. In each of the markets we serve, we are truly so much more than a consumer credit reporting agency. What we mean to each country is as diverse as the geographies themselves. For example, in our largest region, Asia Pacific, and in our largest country business there, Australia, Commercial is our biggest line of business. We work with Australian customers who want to lend or provide goods to businesses on credit. Property and construction is a major industry there and one with extensive regulations. As a result, organizations count on us to help them with their compliance requirements. Our Australia consumer business is also a powerhouse. It is on an accelerated growth trajectory as we've incorporated positive credit data into our analytics in response to changes the country's credit reporting system have gone through, which now considers positive credit behavior like on-time payments in addition to the negative details like bankruptcy and loan defaults. We are also moving quickly to innovate with clients as new consumer data rights regulations are put in place. Shifting over to Europe, the U.K. is our largest business. Debt management is our biggest line of business there, which includes collections, analytics and recoveries for both private and public sector customers. Our U.K. consumer business is challenging that country's market leader by going to where the growth is, including new sectors and trends in the fast-growing open banking and fintech spaces. In Canada, we drive consumer commercial fraud prevention and identity verification solutions across multiple market segments for many of the biggest customers in the country. We are the market leader in Canada, but the team is focused on keeping our challenger mindset sharp. LatAm is another region where we maintain market leadership. Our growth in the LatAm consumer space is largely driven by unparalleled strengths, differentiated data and analytics solutions. The market recognizes that this is something only Equifax can provide. Of course, we are also focused on maximizing the performance within each of our regions to drive overall International revenue growth. And we are focused on sharing the learnings and strengths of each region across our International business to help other regions identify and execute effectively on new growth opportunities. Our cloud and technology transformation makes this possible. Our international CAGR in local currency is 3.5% over the prior 5 years. We will drive more consistent and higher percentage growth moving forward, and our cloud transformation will help us achieve that. In the prior long-term framework, the International target was 8% to 10% but the actual CAGR that the International unit delivered was 6%. Our new framework establishes a target of 7% to 9%, which we intend to deliver using a number of levers. Key drivers of future growth include price and increased share of wallet. The most notable improvement, however, over historical growth rates is enabled by the cloud and the speed and agility it brings to new product innovation. We've had strong new product innovation programs in place within all of our regions for quite some time. However, these past programs were built on legacy infrastructure, making it more difficult to lift and shift innovation from one market to another. The cloud simplifies this process, helping us to extend the impact of our solutions and minimize development time. Ultimately, we'll be able to drive more growth from new product innovation in International than ever before. Our customers across segments are looking to us for this type of innovation. We have a balanced and diversified portfolio that includes customers in banking, fintech, mortgage and auto lenders, retail credit, telco, utilities and government. We offer a range of solutions to meet the needs of that diverse customer base. This includes consumer and commercial credit, analytics and insights, debt management, fraud prevention and digital enablement. This market segment and solution diversity is one of our biggest strengths and allows us to balance performance with countercyclical offerings. Speed matters and the timeliness of our offerings is driven by the cloud. Our customers tell us they want to grow their businesses by lending to new customers, but they also tell us that they lack insights about certain consumers, and they need our help. In Australia, which is home to some of the world's largest buy now pay later firms, they look to us to help with buy now pay later and positive data. In Canada, which is a place with one of the highest immigration rates per population of any country in the world, it's the new to Canada immigrants. In LatAm, where bank account penetration stood just over half the population pre-COVID, it's the underbanked and underserved. Our customers want to lend to these segments, and they want us to enable that. Only Equifax has unique differentiated data assets in each of these markets that can provide a more complete financial picture of each of these consumer segments. In Australia, we have 2 of the buy now pay later providers giving us their data. Nobody else has that. In the U.K. we have APIs in traditional -- into traditional banks to enable real-time consumer consent for transaction data. We were the first to do that. In LatAm, we have data assets from retailers, telcos, banks, utilities and more. Nobody else has all of that. In Canada, we have a combination of real estate and financial data that no one else has. And now with our single data fabric, we can easily and securely ingest that data and use our analytic capabilities, including machine learning and AI to create best-in-class insights on consumers who may not have been visible in the past. We deliver them over cloud-centric global platforms like Interconnect and Ignite. And we share the learnings, use cases and to the extent possible with local and regulatory requirements, the solutions themselves. This is why I am confident in our long-term financial framework. We will further differentiate ourselves from the competition through scalable innovation by meeting our customer needs and by becoming their trusted business partner and preferred provider. It's a great story, but it's also our reality. Our data on the percentage of new product innovations that have become multi-country products since 2018 speaks for itself. In the past, we've had the mindset to create a product in one market and launch it elsewhere, but it was difficult on legacy infrastructure. As we expand on the cloud across our regions and drive a product mindset, the results are visible. We fully expect to continue this product lift and shift accelerating revenue growth. We're driving innovation that cuts across geographies in our consumer credit, our commercial credit and our digital enablement spaces. I'm excited about our international business unit growth and about the power of the cloud in both driving our innovation and accelerating our ability to win. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark.
Mark Begor
executiveWell, thanks, Lisa, and thanks, Rudy and Sid, for that great update from our business unit leaders around how they're aligning around our new long-term framework in the new Equifax. I think you heard about their individual growth levers but also that across Equifax focus on the cloud benefits, new products and innovation. So now I'd like to invite John Gamble up to take us through a financial update and really tie this together from a financial perspective. John, if you want to come up?
John Gamble
executiveThanks, Mark. As you heard on our recent earnings call, 2021 has been an outstanding year for Equifax. We are delivering 19% overall growth and 16% organic growth despite the expected over 7% decline in the U.S. mortgage market. Our core revenue growth of 21% and core organic growth of 18% reflects this outstanding performance. Expected adjusted EPS is a record $7.57 per share, up 9% on the year, and up 23%, adjusting for the inclusion of tech transformation expense, which was included in 2021 results, but was excluded in 2018 through 2020. As Rudy said, and Lisa took you through, our major BUs, all performed extremely well despite difficult market conditions. Our outperformance in 2021 sets us up very well for 2022 and beyond. We are quickly pivoting from building the Equifax cloud to leveraging it for innovation and new products that will help our customers and position the new Equifax for stronger and more diversified growth in the future. Our transformation and new product acceleration has allowed us to deliver strong core revenue growth over the last 5 quarters, and we expect that growth to continue through 2022. At our 3Q '21 earnings call in late October, we shared a 2022 framework for you to consider. This framework is based on several critical assumptions. We are expecting that the U.S. mortgage market as measured by total U.S. credit inquiries, will decline about 15% from 2021 levels. Equifax total U.S. mortgage revenue is expected to grow in 2022, outperforming the overall mortgage market by over 15 percentage points. This outperformance is principally driven by Workforce Solutions. We have assumed that U.S. economic recovery continues with U.S. GDP of about 4%. As Rudy and Sid discussed with you, we expect the U.S. nonmortgage businesses across U.S. B2B and to significantly outperform the underlying market, and we expect GCS to return to growth. In Workforce Solutions, with the recovering U.S. economy, we expect the unemployment insurance claims and employee retention credit businesses to decline significantly on the order of 30% versus 2021. Our major non-U.S. markets are also expected to continue to recover in 2022. As Lisa discussed with you, we expect to strongly outperform these underlying markets. We estimate the change in the overall U.S. mortgage market based on U.S. mortgage credit inquiries. As a reminder, we are focused on the number of mortgage transactions executed. In the second half of 2021, we expect a substantial decline in overall U.S. mortgage market inquiries, down about 20% from the record levels we saw in the second half of 2020. Based on trends we are seeing in new purchase and refinance, our 2020 framework assumes the U.S. mortgage market will decline about 15% from 2021. The 15% decline versus 2021 is most substantial in the first half of 2022, given the significant slowing we have seen in the U.S. mortgage market already in the second half of 2021. Our assumed level of 2022 U.S. mortgage market credit inquiries remain somewhat more than 10% above the levels we saw over the 2015 to 2019 period. Our 2022 assumption for U.S. mortgage credit inquiries, assumes that we will see purchase mortgage financings at levels 5% to 10% above the levels we saw in 2020, with refinancings declining significantly from the levels we saw in both 2020 and 2021. 2022 revenue growth is expected to be a strong 8%, despite the negative 5.75% impact on revenue growth from the 15% decline in the U.S. mortgage market and the expected declines in the Workforce Solutions, Unemployment Claims and ERC business. We expect to deliver strong core revenue growth of 14%, reflecting core organic revenue growth of 11% and a 3% benefit from acquisitions completed in 2021. This will more than offset the significant headwinds from the declines in the U.S. mortgage market and the UC and ERC businesses. Non-mortgage organic growth is driving about 2/3 of the 11% core organic revenue growth. As Rudy discussed earlier, the largest contributor is Workforce Solutions with strong growth in talent solutions, government and employee boarding solutions, including I-9. USIS non-mortgage, International and GCS are also expected to drive core growth. Mortgage revenue outperformance relative to the overall mortgage market is expected to drive the remaining 1/3 of the organic core growth. This is driven by strong outperformance in Workforce Solutions. The 14% core revenue growth in 2022 is a continuation of the trend that I referenced earlier that started in the second half of 2020 and strengthened in 2021. 2022 core revenue growth of 14%, core organic revenue growth of 11% are above the top end of the new long-term framework we shared with you today, a very strong start. During our 3Q '21 earnings discussion last month, we shared an adjusted EPS walk and detailed the drivers of the expected 14% growth from the midpoint of 2021 guidance of $7.57 per share to the midpoint of our 2022 framework of $8.65 per share. Revenue growth of 8% at our 2021 EBITDA margins of about 33.8% would deliver 11% growth in adjusted EPS. In 2022, we expect to deliver EBITDA margin expansion of about 200 basis points. This margin expansion is expected to drive 9% growth in adjusted EPS and is expected to be delivered by the actions we have discussed with you throughout 2021. Our transformation investments will be reduced by about $100 million in 2022, with about half of this reduction or about $50 million being reinvested in the new product development activities that we have outlined for you today. We will begin to see net cloud cost savings in 2022. This is defined as the savings from improving production costs, including those driven by the decommissioning of our legacy on-prem systems that Bryson mentioned earlier today, exceeding the cost of running our new cloud-native systems. Margins will be enhanced by leverage on corporate and G&A and partially offsetting these benefits to EBITDA are cost increases, particularly in salaries and contracted services as the tight labor market drives costs higher as well as lower EBITDA margins in 2022 from the 2021 acquisitions as we will ramp synergies during the year. Depreciation and amortization is expected to increase by about $45 million in 2022, which will negatively impact adjusted EPS by about 4%. D&A is increasing in 2022 as we accelerate putting cloud-native systems into production. The combined increase in interest expense and tax expense in 2022 is expected to negatively impact adjusted EPS by about 2 percentage points. The increase in interest expense reflects increased debt from our 2021 acquisitions. Our estimated tax rate used in this framework of 24.5% does not assume any changes in the U.S. federal tax rate. Should that occur as we move through 2021, we will let you know the estimated impact on 2022 results. The acceleration of our earnings growth in 2022, driven by the 200 basis points of EBITDA expansion, is also accelerating the growth on our free cash flow. Free cash flow growth accelerated in 2021 and is expected to again in 2022, both in absolute dollars as we expect to reach over $1 billion in 2022 and also as a percent of adjusted net income as we expect to approach 100% in 2022. And the acceleration of both cash generation and EBITDA growth is allowing us to move our leverage in 2022 back to within the BBB, Baa2 range, even including our expectation that the final payment on the U.S. MDL of about $345 million will be made in early 2022. It is this earnings and cash flow performance that makes us confident that we can restart acquisitions and limited share repurchases as we move through the first half of 2022. Now I would like to turn to a discussion of the new Equifax long-term framework that Mark introduced to you earlier today. Relative to the prior Equifax long-term framework, revenue growth is higher, driving greater margin expansion and faster growth of adjusted EPS and higher shareholder returns. This is also driving substantial growth in free cash flow to fuel both acquisitions and return of capital to shareholders. The higher growth in the new long-term framework of up to 200 basis points is driven by increased organic growth principally in our U.S. B2B businesses. Workforce Solutions organic growth of 13% to 15% is up about 400 basis points and USIS organic growth of 6% to 8% is up 100 basis points from our prior framework. International organic growth of 7% to 9% is slightly stronger than USIS, given stronger growth dynamics in Latin America and very strong market positions in Canada and Australia. Rudy, Sid and Lisa walked you through the drivers that will allow their respective businesses to deliver this strong organic growth. This graph provides a view of that same framework for Equifax in total and how we will deliver our average long-term organic growth of about 8.5%, the midpoint of our long-term organic growth range. Workforce Solutions is both our largest business, approaching 45% of Equifax revenue in 2022 and our fastest growing with our long-term framework growth at about 14%. As such, Workforce is the driver of 5 percentage points of Equifax total organic growth or almost 60% of Equifax organic growth. Over the next several years, Workforce Solutions income, talent, government and employment solutions will become the majority of Equifax revenue. USIS will continue to be a substantial driver of overall Equifax growth, delivering 2 percentage points of Equifax total growth or approaching 25% of our organic growth. USIS is helping businesses say yes more to their customers, find new customers and offer them frictionless and personalized experiences. This trend is powered by differentiated data and enabled by the Equifax cloud and is expected to drive consistent USIS growth of 6% to 8%. International will continue to be a strong contributor to overall Equifax growth, delivering 1.25 percentage points of Equifax total growth. International's growth is driven by continued new product innovation with acceleration from their move to cloud-native applications over '22 and '23. With the return to growth of GCS, this gives us a strong path to delivering the organic growth embedded in our long-term framework. And with Workforce Solutions continuing to grow as a percentage of Equifax, it's high relative growth rates should continue to enhance our ability to execute against the new long-term framework. The new Equifax long-term framework has EBITDA margins expanding by 50-plus basis points annually, driven by Equifax high variable margins on new sales and leverage on SG&A. However, over the next 4 years, we expect EBITDA margins to expand by on the order of 500 basis points or over twice as fast as the new long-term financial framework. This accelerated margin expansion, which assumes we deliver revenue levels consistent with our 2022 and long-term financial frameworks, is driven by the principal completion of the tech transformation in 2022 and 2023. As this completes, two of the primary margin benefits will be: first, the elimination of the incremental cloud tech transformation spending we have been incurring since 2018. As I indicated earlier, in 2022, we will reduce tech transformation spending by $100 million and the remaining about $65 million is expected to be eliminated principally in 2023. And second, cost savings actions, including the decommissioning of legacy on-premise-based systems will increasingly become a benefit as we move through 2022, and continuing in 2023 and 2024 as customer migration to our new cloud-native systems, principally completes. We remain focused on achieving our significant cost savings and capital spending target goals associated with our cloud transformation. The significant growth in Equifax revenue and EBITDA margin over the next 4 years drives rapid acceleration in adjusted earnings, free cash flow and available debt capacity. The 2023 to '25 scenario we are sharing today is to provide perspective on the acceleration in Equifax performance as we execute against our long-term framework. This scenario is not guidance or a forecast and make significant assumptions. First, that economic growth at normalized levels will continue in all our major markets over the 2023 to 2025 period. And second, that the U.S. mortgage market will normalize over this period, meaning that U.S. mortgage market credit inquiries in 2023 to '25 will move back to the levels we saw in 2015 to 2019. Over 2023 to 2025, we assumed we would deliver core revenue growth consistent with the midpoint of our long-term framework or 10% a year. We reduced the about 34% growth that would imply over the 3-year period by about 4 points, reflecting the normalization of the U.S. mortgage market. With these assumptions, using the midpoint of our 2022 revenue as a starting point, 2025 revenue would be about $7 billion, up about 30% from 2022. Over the 2023 to '25 period, to the extent we deliver the revenue I just referenced, we expect EBITDA margins to expand at over twice the pace we expect for our long-term framework to about 39% by 2025. At about $7 billion of revenue, EBITDA in 2025 would be over $2.7 billion, up almost 45% from 2022. At this level of revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion, adjusted earnings and EPS would grow over 45%, reaching $1.575 billion and $12.75 per share, respectively. Over the 2023 to '25 period, free cash flow would also substantially accelerate. Free cash flow in 2025 would reach over $1.6 billion, and as a percent of net income, would climb to over 105% as capital spending declines to 7.5% of revenue. This is almost double the $830 million we were expecting in 2021 and more than 50% over the $1 billion plus expected in 2022. And this acceleration in free cash flow creates significant capacity for acquisitions and return of capital through both cash generation and increased available debt capacity. Free cash flow after dividends in 2025 would increase to $1.4 billion, more than double the $640 million we expect to deliver in 2021. In addition, in 2025, EBITDA would increase versus 2024 substantially, which would increase our debt capacity in 2025 at a 2.5x leverage multiple by over $500 million. In total, this would create total spending capacity available in 2025, approaching $2 billion. As I referenced earlier, by the second half of 2022, we expect our leverage to be back to about 2.5x EBITDA. As we move into 2023, we will again be able to benefit from both our strong free cash flow and the increase in our debt capacity from the accelerating growth in EBITDA. Our capital allocation priorities are principally consistent with our prior long-term framework. In terms of priority, we are first focused on capital spending with this spending increasingly focused on new products with product-focused spend reaching 75% in the long-term framework. This is followed by continuing our commitment to at least maintaining our dividend at its current levels as we did over the last several years. The priority for remaining available spending capacity is first M&A and then increased return of capital to shareholders. The total spending capacity we just discussed, for example, the almost $2 billion in the 2025 scenario is after capital spending and dividend payments and so is fully available for M&A and return of capital to shareholders through share repurchases or increasing our dividend. We believe this strong spending capacity will provide the capability to both execute M&A in support of adding up to 200 basis points of growth and consistently increase our level of return of capital. Also, as we did with the acquisition of Appriss, we can substantially increase leverage for short periods when needed, given our ability to reduce leverage rapidly given our strong free cash flow and EBITDA growth. Executing our new long-term framework with double-digit percentage revenue growth and EBITDA margin growth over the next 4 years of about 500 basis points, drive substantial EBITDA and adjusted earnings growth and spending capacity approaching $2 billion per year that supports our M&A program, driving up to 200 basis points of growth per year as well as return of capital to shareholders. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Mark.
Mark Begor
executiveThanks, John. John has always did a great job, tying this together from a financial perspective and really laying out the power of the new Equifax and our long-term framework. I'd like to spend a couple of minutes really wrapping up the morning, and then we'll get to some Q&A. We're energized about the new Equifax, the power of the Equifax cloud and the power of our new long-term framework. The new long-term framework at 8% to 12% growth is a significant increase from the 7% to 10% we've grown historically, and we have confidence in this new framework based on our performance over the last couple of years. We're really starting to see the momentum of the new Equifax and our delivery of 17% growth in 2020 and 19% in our current framework for 2021. I went through earlier the levers that we have for growth and they're really multifaceted. It starts with the cloud, our new product introduction capabilities, levering the cloud, our differentiated data, the power of workforce solutions. This is a new company. This is a company that's positioned for strong growth going forward, higher top line growth, higher margins, as we laid out so far this morning and free cash flow accelerating that will allow us to continue to invest in Equifax and return cash to our shareholders. We've got a wider lens now on Equifax. We're much more than a credit bureau. This is a big deal as we broaden our focus beyond a traditional credit bureau and adding those big TAMs like identity and fraud, talent and government to really broaden Equifax. And those new markets we're focused on are growing substantially above the core Equifax markets, which also gives us that structural element of the market macros driving growth going forward. We spent the last 4 years really investing in Equifax. In short, we still have work to do to complete the cloud transformation. We've got a number of migrations to complete, some of the cloud technology work, but the hard work is behind us. We're now in the execution mode of completing the cloud transformation, and we're starting to see some of those benefits. And we're just in the early innings, the early days of seeing what we can do with the cloud, but it gives us the confidence to really drive our company at a different growth rate going forward because of the benefits of the cloud. And then second is our bolt-on M&A. As we mentioned earlier, you know this, we've invested a lot in the core of Equifax, almost $3 billion this year in big acquisitions like Kount and Appriss to really broaden and strengthen Equifax. We intend to continue doing that in the future. Our growth strategy is clear. It's something we launched earlier this year. This will serve as our compass through 2023 and likely into 2025. And I don't see this changing as we focus on how we're going to grow the company. It starts with accelerating innovation in new products, leveraging the Equifax cloud and leveraging our differentiated data assets. You heard from Sid and Rudy and Lisa, how we're putting customers first and really driving to make them -- help them grow and help them drive their business. We're going to continue executing on our bolt-on M&A strategy to strengthen and broaden Equifax. Jamil went through our security, which is really a foundation for Equifax. And then the team that we have at Equifax, we think is the team that will take Equifax to be a $7 billion company by 2025 with margins of 39%. These cloud benefits are starting to kick in. We're really just in the early days. Remember, we're still completing the cloud, but we've seen the performance in our competitive success, our ability to roll out more new products, and of course, the financial results that we've delivered over the last 2 years that have been above market and above our historical trends. So we're excited about where we're taking the company, and we're actually more excited about where we're going to take the company in '22, '23 and '24 after we complete the cloud and we can fully deploy those benefits across all of Equifax. NPIs are central to that. New products, leveraging the cloud and our differentiated data assets, and you've seen those accelerating. We've been investing in more resources to really take advantage of our single data fabric, our differentiated data assets and our cloud capabilities to drive new products, and new products drive top line. And we've got a goal as our long-term framework to have 10% vitality index or new products introduced in the last 3 years. We think that's a very meaningful goal that is really one of the many elements that are driving our ability to increase our long-term framework going forward. And new products in the cloud are going to deliver 200 to 300 basis points of growth going forward, which we think is a big deal that helps support that 8% to 12% growth that we have for Equifax. Workforce Solutions is clearly our strongest and increasingly our largest business. Just a year ago, it became the #1 business in Equifax. And you've seen the growth growing from $760 million, a short 4 years ago, to $2 billion this year. And you heard from Rudy about the power of that business and their long-term growth framework of 13% to 15%, which, as you know, they've been outgrowing the last couple of years. And we think that 13% to 15% has got a lot of support behind it because of the multiple levers that they have for growth. And Workforce as it becomes larger in Equifax, obviously drives our top line and our margins because they're growing faster than the rest of Equifax with margins that are substantially above the rest of Equifax. So a highly accretive part of the Equifax long-term framework is Workforce Solutions. So the new Equifax growth framework, delivering 8% to 12%, including M&A, is a very powerful business going forward. And John went through in real detail. You heard from each of the business unit leaders their ability to build up to this overall Equifax growth rate. That really drives a lot of top line for us that we can use to expand our margins while still investing in Equifax, reinvesting in new products and DNA and commercial resources going forward. And that 50 basis points of margin expansion that John went through in some detail a few minutes ago is really quite powerful in what it does to our free cash flow. To generate $1.4 billion of free cash by 2025, and then you add to that, the leverage that we'll have as our EBITDA goes up, we've got a lot of flexibility in having close to $2 billion of cash available to continue to invest in bolt-on M&A and return cash to shareholders going forward. So a very powerful business model, one that we've got a lot of confidence in. We spent quite a bit of time working on this over the last couple of years, and our outperformance in '20 and '21 gives us the confidence to put a framework like this in place and really focus on delivering it going forward. And that capacity to deliver M&A, bolt-on M&A and return cash to shareholders is quite substantial. Close to $1.9 billion or close to $2 billion of free cash flow and leverage as we get to 2025 is a very powerful business that allows us to continue to reinvest in the company and then increasingly return cash to shareholders going forward. So we're excited about the power of Equifax. I also want to comment on ESG. You may have seen our announcement last week that we expanded some of our ESG disclosures. We're now having disclosures around EEO-1, our diversity disclosure as well as SASB diversity disclosures. We think that's important. And we have real priorities at Equifax around expanding the diversity of our Board, of our leadership team and of course, the rest of the company. And then second is, we made a commitment for the first time to be Net Zero by 2040. The cloud really gives us a lot of capabilities there by investing in the cloud and having the benefits from that. It allows us to make that commitment around our environment. And then last, we're one of the only companies out there that is doing an annual report on security. And you heard from Jamil about the increasingly challenged environment around cybersecurity, and we've been investing to be an industry leader there and putting out an annual report just on our security going forward. So there's a strong commitment around ESG at Equifax, and I wanted to make that point while we were together today. So wrapping up, the new Equifax. We spent the last 4 years building transforming, changing 121-year-old company, and this is a company that performed exceptionally well over the last decade. It's a company that has delivered very strong margins, strong topline growth, but we believe we can accelerate that going forward, going from that 7% to 10% growth historically up to 8% to 12% with a goal of being a $7 billion company by 2025, delivering that 8% to 12% growth while working through in '22 and '23, the mortgage normalization. So a really powerful business model. We expect to expand our margins by 50 basis points per year. That will be accelerated in the next couple of years, through the cloud savings and some of the leverage we have in the business operating leverage and then growing to 39% margins. And that will generate the kind of cash we will have, the free cash flow to continue to reinvest in bolt-on M&A and return cash to shareholders. We've been through in great detail, the growth drivers on the right-hand side. I'm not going to go through those in any more detail, but really exciting about the benefits we have and the levers we have to drive growth, whether it's the cloud, new products, our single data fabric, our differentiated data, Workforce Solutions, bolt-on M&A and of course, the team. We believe we have the ability to grow Equifax like never before. So we're energized about the future. We're energized about the new Equifax, a company that's going to grow faster, is going to deliver higher margins, higher free cash flow and higher returns. So with that, I'd like to invite John to come up and join me, and then we're going to do some Q&A after seeing a short video. [Presentation]
Mark Begor
executiveWell, thanks again for joining us this morning to go through our Investor Day. It was a big day for Equifax, a real milestone. And I hope you're as energized as we are about the new Equifax. We'd like to now open it up for questions, John and I are here, and if we get the operator to queue up the first question, that would be great.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.
Ryan Gunning
analystIt's actually Ryan Gunning filling in for Hamzah. I just wanted to ask, on Workforce Solutions, how should we think about the moat you have? And why a payroll processor would sign up exclusively with you? And then also if you could talk about how their royalty arrangements work there, that would be great.
Mark Begor
executiveSure. I hope Rudy's comments were helpful about the real moat we think workforce has around it, the scale of the business, the scale of the data set. As a reminder, 60% of our data assets come from individual companies that we've really accumulated over the last decade, and those are really tied together with our very comprehensive benefit solutions that we deliver to HR managers, whether it's unemployment claims, whether it's W-2 management, HCA, all those services give us access to record. So that's a really bedrock in the relationships we have. And we grow those every week. That's a data set we continue to grow by going to individual companies and providing those services. A little less than 40% of our records come from partnerships. As you point out, many of those are with payroll processors. We added a big one this year. We announced a couple of weeks ago in our earnings call that we've got a couple more we're adding in the fourth quarter that will accrete into the business in 2022. And we've got a long runway to not only add records from payroll processors, but software companies going beyond nonfarm payroll, going into pensioners who have defined benefit pension payments coming to them or self-employed, which is a very large data set. So we've got a lot of runway to continue to grow the data set. Your question about why would a payroll processor be exclusive with Equifax? It's really the scale that we have. We can monetize their records instantly because remember, we have inquiries coming to our data set that are well above the records that we have because our hit rates are in the high 50s, almost 60%. That other 40%, we're getting inquiries. So as we add a new payroll partner, we're able to monetize and do a revenue share with them. And that's why the scale of Equifax, our security, our privacy, the networks we have and system-to-system integrations at Workforce Solutions, is really why the relationships, the vast majority, virtually all of our relationships are exclusive. And our intention is going forward that they'll all be exclusive, and it's really an important growth element. When you think about Rudy's growth model going forward in Workforce Solutions, that bedrock of growing records every year is something that our other businesses don't have. It's a very unique asset that we have to grow records every year that drives revenue growth. And you've seen that, records through the third quarter, up 12%. We've grown -- we've accelerated our record additions in the last couple of years versus the last 10. That's really the scale of Equifax and the ability to bring those records forward. So an important growth lever for the business, and of course, Equifax's largest business.
John Gamble
executiveThe other thing that's true also is obviously with the tech transformation and the Equifax cloud, we make it very easy to work with us. So it's extremely easy for payroll partners and other partners like software vendors, HR software vendors to integrate with us seamlessly faster than they can really with any one of our competitors.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.
Kevin McVeigh
analystAnd I want to start by congratulating you folks. From 2017, what you've been able to do has really been borderline miraculous. So I just applaud you for that. My question comes more around, the framework looks really, really strong. But what the data is allowing you to do, I think, is tap into higher growth segments within your client base, right? So as opposed to maybe traditional banks, you're participating in kind of the shift in some of the fintech disruption. How do you think about the mix of your client base overall? Because again, it feels like you're going into higher growth verticals, whether it's leveraging the EWS data? And then just within the context of that, the linkage of the cloud enablement with your clients, I feel like that gets a little bit tighter. And then 3-part question, I guess. If I heard you right, John, I think you said $2 billion in the revenues in the cloud today. What do you expect that to be by 2025?
Mark Begor
executiveSo I'll take the first half of that, John, and then you can jump in on the cloud side. So Kevin, great question. There's no question that we're really focused on a larger universe. We really think about Equifax as much more than a credit bureau today. And if you think about our last couple of decades, 10 years ago, 5 years ago, we were really focused more in financial services, mortgage, credit cards, auto, et cetera. We're still big in that space, and we want to be bigger. And as you point out, we're going to be expanding in fintech, and we've got a really deliberate focus there, really expanding our capabilities. You heard from Sid and Lisa and Rudy, some elements of how we're getting stronger in fintech and really growing in that space, which, as you know, is growing faster than the traditional financial partners that we have. The cloud makes us a much stronger partner to all of our customers, whether they're in financial services or not. Our ability to link with them, bring them new solutions, deliver our scale-differentiated data from our single data fabric, all of those elements make us a stronger partner. And we think it's going to drive share and our ability to grow our top line. And then you talk about the larger TAM we're focused on. If you think about the chart that I showed around our focus, around the traditional financial services or credit bureau model, that's a great business. That industry grows at about 8% with very attractive margins. So it's a great space. And over the last couple of years, we've really broadened our focus and really tripled the view that we have of the market that we're playing in. Identity and fraud, big space, $19 billion TAM, growing at 20% versus that 8%, so a fast-growing space. We made a big bet with Kount to really double down in identity and fraud. We've been very clear that when we think about our M&A priorities and product priorities going forward, it's going to be in that identity and fraud space, it's clearly a priority of ours. We want to continue to grow in that fast-growing space. And then in Workforce Solutions, we've really broadened well beyond income and employment verification, really leveraging that $0.5 billion of historical records we have. And I think as you know, we've talked about it before, we have in our data set an average of 4.5 jobs of history on the average American. So that work history is very valuable in the hiring space. $5 billion TAM that Rudy talked about, that's growing well above our traditional markets, strong double digits. And our addition of Appriss makes us stronger there. The addition of our exclusive partnership with the National Student Clearinghouse around education data continuing to build that out. And that's a secondary -- that's a priority for us around new products and M&A to get larger and build out that Workforce Solutions data hub. At its core, it's our 500 million historical records that we have on Americans, again, that 4.5 jobs. And adding to it other data elements like Appriss around incarceration data. You're adding a medical credentialing data, now education data. And you'll see us come out with products for that talent space that are really going to be tailored to jobs. So we could really have that instant decisioning so speed up that time between making an offer to someone of employment and getting them on the job on the floor, which all of our customers, whether it's the background screeners or their ultimate customers, the companies hiring them, want that to be shorter. And then, of course, government is a big vertical for us. It's one we're expanding in. We have really great solutions around the delivery of social services and social services, for the most part, are income based, meaning there's cutoff levels, and we can verify that instantly. So at the state level, when a mom or dad comes into that unemployment claims office or in for rental support or food stamps, we can have them walk out with that support as opposed to coming back and forth with paperwork and verifying it. That's the scale of what we have. And of course, we all watch what's going on in Washington. There's only one way social services are going. It's more, and they're going to be means based, which is good for Equifax going forward. So bringing that back together, we really think about ourselves as much more than a credit bureau. We've talked about our mortgage concentration of going from in the 30% range down to 25% in the coming years as the rest of Equifax is growing much faster. And of course, we're going to continue to outperform the mortgage market, but a lot of the verticals we talked about this morning are growing a lot faster than our traditional market sets. And we think that's a really good thing for Equifax and for our investors. John, do you want to take the second half?
John Gamble
executiveSure. And certainly, by the end of 2025, I think was your question. The goal is all of our revenue is cloud-enabled and running on the cloud, and that will include all the segments Mark was talking about as well as e-commerce, right? So with the acquisition of Kount, we've expanded in the e-commerce vertical, and we think being totally cloud-native makes us again a very attractive partner to our e-commerce partners. So we think we feel very good about the pace at which we are in executing to get to a fully cloud-native infrastructure as we move through 2025.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Kyle Peterson with Needham.
Kyle Peterson
analystThanks for this day together, it's been super helpful. Just want to touch a little on the Workforce Solutions growth trajectory on long-term framework. 13% to 15% is obviously pretty impressive. And I get that mortgage is a wildcard, but you guys have been at least significantly outperforming that recently. Should we think about this as sort of kind of the glide down to that 13% range over the next few years kind of ex-noise in mortgage?
Mark Begor
executiveYes, it's a great question, Kyle. It's one that -- clearly, Workforce Solutions has been outperforming the long-term framework we put in place for workforce going forward, and that long-term framework is stronger now than it was in our old framework. Clearly, workforce is a much stronger business, and it's got a longer -- it's got stronger long-term growth potential going forward. And when we think about the long-term growth rate, that's outside the mortgage impacts, and we've been clear that we see a continued normalization meaning mortgage coming down in 2022. We laid out that framework a couple of weeks ago on our earnings call, and John went through it a little bit more this morning. And then we expect there'll be another step and that likely in 2023, and we'll give you guidance and a view of that as we get closer to it. But workforce has been, for the last couple of years, way outperforming, as you point out, that long-term framework. The long-term framework that is what it's intended to be a long-term vision as opposed to one for the next 12 or 24 months. This is how we think about Workforce going forward that is going to substantially grow faster than the rest of Equifax in a very high way accreting in revenue growth to our overall revenue growth rate. And also, as you know, its margins are substantially accretive to the rest of Equifax, which is another positive going forward. And Rudy went through and I touched on it, too, and we touched on it many times on calls with investors in meetings about the multiple levers that workforce has going forward. And the scale of workforce as being a bigger part of Equifax, we think is a very powerful engine for our future growth, which is one of the many areas between cloud, new products and of course, workforce performance. And Equifax's performance the last 24 months has clearly been very, very strong, and that all -- that gave us the confidence to really take our long-term framework up and really have the confidence to grow Equifax faster going forward.
John Gamble
executiveAnd when we give you our 2022 guidance, we'll give you some specifics around what we expect Workforce to do next year. And that will give you -- I think that will help you with the glide path we're talking about.
Operator
operatorOur next question from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.
Andrew Steinerman
analystI'm referencing Slide 54, which is really the coverage of nonfarm payroll for a Workforce Solutions. My first question is, do you have goals for how much of nonfarm payroll do you think you could cover with the twin database maybe 5 years from now? I know you're at above 60% right now. That red bar that you have on Slide 54. And then I'm looking at the other parts of that bar, like contractor and pension. How quickly do you think you can get coverage of those?
Mark Begor
executiveAndrew, great question. We've talked before with you and others about that. We see a lot of runway in growing the data set. We've clearly been growing it more rapidly in the last couple of months than we did over the last 5 plus 7 years. And there's a lot of opportunity that -- we don't have any specific goals that we're going to share as a part of the framework. We've given you the long-term framework of the business. And you should think about record additions as being a part of that. As you know, as we add records, we can monetize them instantly because we already have the inquiries coming in. That's the power of that business and the power of the system-to-system integrations that we have in mortgage and auto and cards and P loans, and now in government and talent and the other verticals that we have, those inquiries are coming to Equifax. So as we add them, we have the ability to drive the top line, and that's embedded in our long-term framework. And as you point out, we have widened our lens. We really see an opportunity to go well beyond the $157 million, $160 million nonfarm payroll and get into the gig economy, which could be another 30 million, 40 million, 50 million records that are very valuable. The pensioner side, which we're already adding records from both, that's another 20 million or 30 million records. And you've seen us have a very pretty steady increase in records either from our direct interactions with companies as we grow our employee benefit solutions, whether it's I-9, Unemployment Claims, work opportunity, tax credit, employee research credit, W-2 management, all those services to an HR manager allow us to get records that we can monetize in the twin data set. And of course, we've had a real track record, and we're continuing to add with the payroll processors. So we're quite optimistic of our ability to grow. Our customers would like us to have 100% coverage. No question about that. And is that our goal long term? Sure. Is it going to take a long time to get there? Absolutely. But we've seen -- you've seen from Workforce Solutions and Rudy and his team, a really consistent ability to add records direct from companies and then also through partnerships, whether it's through a payroll processor or software company or other relationships, and we're really expanding our lens there. And the power of Workforce with its scale gives them the ability to really invest in dedicated teams. We have dedicated teams. That's all they do is work on record additions. So that scale is really a big advantage to Equifax. And as John pointed out, the cloud that we've invested in allows us to bring those records in really rapidly. Think about the number of employers, companies contributing to our data set. You go back just a short, I think, it's 30 months ago, we had something like 30,000 companies contributing to data set. And this was a great business, call it, 3 years ago when we had 30,000 companies. Today, we have over 2 million companies. And there's like 4 million, 5 million, 6 million, 7 million companies in the United States, we're going to keep adding to that. We didn't touch on during the Investor Day today, we will in the future. But as you know, we're also global with this business. We have a business in Canada, Australia and India. We're adding records there using our partnerships that we have in the United States. Think of a multinational company that does business in those geographies. We're already connected to them so we can bring those records in. Think about a payroll processor that's operating here and in Canada or another market, another way to bring those records in because we already had that relationship. And you should look for us to continue to build out the Workforce Solutions franchise in other markets around the globe going forward. So we're really energized about that, and it's a very unique lever the business has, which really puts a big, you can call it, a foundation under their growth rate and gives us a lot of confidence going forward, the ability to add new records. And then you add to it new products, more poles, all the other levers that Rudy and the Workforce Solutions team has. It's a very important business for Equifax and its scale now is so different than it was 4, 5 years ago when we had our old long-term framework in place versus the one we have going forward. It's clearly a very strong driver to Equifax going forward along with the rest of the Equifax business.
John Gamble
executiveAnd importantly, it's exciting in the International framework that we're now able to stand up a new verifier system infrastructure by leveraging what we have in the Equifax cloud, and we already built in the U.S. in a matter of months would have taken years before. So it's exciting the pace at which we can now accelerate International expansion to start collecting records really rapidly.
Mark Begor
executiveGreat point, John.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.
Toni Kaplan
analystWanted to ask about the margin. So your new 39% margin target is still within the prior 36% to 40% range. However, workforce is now so much bigger. You've completed the cloud investment and your growth rate is higher in terms of your targets. So I think you could argue, given these strengths that you could have a possibility of even higher margins. So just tell us what are sort of the factors from keeping this higher? Is it a matter of accelerating investment? Is it conservatism? Are there other factors you'd call out there?
Mark Begor
executiveThanks, Toni, and it's a great question. And as you might imagine, it's not lost on us, and I look forward to the debate about Equifax margins growing faster than 500 basis points over the next 5 years. The way we thought about it, we still -- first off, you said, you've completed the cloud. We haven't yet, right? And we tried to be very clear this morning that we're really in the early days of seeing some of the benefits, and we still have work to do to complete the cloud. So really realizing and seeing the full benefits of the cloud is still on the come, meaning it hasn't happened yet. We're just months into that of starting to see it as we start to finish the cloud at workforce in USIS. And of course, we still have work to do Internationally. So I think that's an opportunity for us as we get further into cloud completion and see what it does around share and around new products that -- we'll certainly continue to relook our long-term framework going forward. But back to the point, 500 basis points over 4 years, we think is an attractive margin addition for the company. It's a strong commitment that we have. And then the other one is, just to point out, in our long-term framework, we also said that we expect to grow margins 50 basis points long term per year. And this wasn't a framework that's out just the next 4 years, it was really out long term. That's how we think about it for Equifax, and that's 2x what our prior long-term framework was. So we think that reflects some of the points you have around, and we have around cloud, new products and, of course, the power of Workforce Solutions. And then the last point that I would make is that in the midst of, call it, our goals that we laid out for you for 2025, we've got 2022, where we're clearly seeing some mortgage headwinds. We frame that for you this morning and a couple of weeks ago, there will be another element of that likely in 2023 as we get back to more historical levels around mortgage. In the midst of that, we're still going to deliver 500 basis points of mortgage growth -- sorry, margin growth, which we think is quite powerful. I don't know, John, do you want to add to that?
John Gamble
executiveI think you covered it very well. And it's just an important transition for us also as we now move into '22 and then move, obviously, continue that through '23 to '25 that we're now talking to you about consistent substantial margin growth, which means we are moving through the transformation. Not done, as Mark said, but we can see the benefits. We're committed to delivering them, and we'll deliver them through cost reduction, yes. But as we've talked about consistently for at least the last 10 years, it's really through growth acceleration. And obviously, as we go through and give you guidance for each year, we'll talk about that growth acceleration and how it's going to drive higher and higher margins, and we're committed to delivering higher and higher margins as we go forward.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of George Mihalos with Cowen.
Allison Jordan
analystThis is Allison Jordan on for George. Thank you for the informative presentation. I wanted to expand on an earlier question. Mark, I appreciated your answer and also the slides you shared on expanding the TAM beyond a traditional credit bureau. I'm curious how much of your business today is not tied to traditional credit reporting and scores? And where do you envision that going down the road?
Mark Begor
executiveYes, it's a great question. It's clearly a focus of ours. First off, let me be clear, we want to grow our core business, which is in with financial services. And we are and we will, and you saw that with USIS and you saw with International. Of course, EWS is a big part of their business in the traditional financial side. One metric that we shared was around mortgage, and I think that's a good example. If you think about where we are today, mortgage is roughly 30% of our revenue. And we've said, over the next couple of years that, that will go down to 25%. I think that reflects the growth in talent, the growth in identity, the growth in government and the growth, of course, in other financial product solutions, whether it's in auto or P loans or cards, growing faster than mortgage. And it's clearly a deliberate effort on our part to really invest in those faster-growing markets. And I'll back up again. You saw the chart, you know it well. Our core business in the credit bureau space is a very attractive business, growing at, call it, 8% long term, meaning multiples of GDP. It's a great business to be in, and we've been in it for a long time. Equifax continues to excel there. Our cloud transformation is going to strengthen our competitiveness in that space, but we're deliberately investing in identity and fraud, which is a space that's growing 2x the traditional credit bureaus. So a very big TAM, a space we want to get bigger in, Kount was a big first step. We'll make other steps there organically and inorganically. And then we added, of course, the talent side with the Appriss acquisition and then government, which Appriss is also aiding. We want to do more organically. You'll see more on the product side there, but also in acquisitions to strengthen workforce broadly, but strengthen around that talent hub. There's other data assets we think are attractive in that hiring government space that we'll continue to lean into.
John Gamble
executiveAnd when we talk about different than a traditional credit bureau, it's both data and customers. So if you think about, obviously, the best example of that is Workforce Solutions, and you know how large they are and how fast they're growing. And then as Mark already referenced, also, obviously, identity and fraud, which you talked about a north of $200 million revenue level for us this year and as you go forward. So we think we're seeing substantial revenue outside of, let's call it, traditional credit bureau and that -- those areas, as Mark said, are growing much faster than the core.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.
Craig Huber
analystIt's Craig Huber. Very impressive presentation. My main question is about -- around Appriss acquisition. Can you just talk about the competitive landscape out there? How unique your data is there? The pricing power you have and what really excites you that you haven't already touched on? And then my nitpick question is, I noticed you pull down your long-term growth rate for International by 100 basis points. No big deal, but just wondering, is this a certain region that you pulled down the overall growth rate for International long term? What's going on there?
Mark Begor
executiveYes. First one on Appriss and then, John, you could take International or I could do it. On Appriss, we think it was a very strategic acquisition, a very attractive financial acquisition. It is one that we talked about a number of months ago when we announced it that we've been focused on that business for quite some time. It's a very unique data asset. When I think about the uniqueness of twin, our income and employment data, the Appriss data is in the same ZIP code, meaning it's a very unique data set at scale, the amount of data they have around incarcerations and criminal justice data across the United States is really unrivaled, meaning there isn't anything else that has that level of scale for instant access around that data as well as the historical records that they have. So we were really excited about Appriss. Beyond the criminal justice data, they also have medical credentialing data. That's an area we'd like to grow in likely through organic efforts that we're doing to add more data contributors, but likely through M&A, as I mentioned, around building out that data hub. So we're really energized around the Appriss acquisition. We're only a few weeks into the integration. We're excited to have the team on board, and we're focused on new solutions. And as I mentioned earlier, you'll see from Workforce Solutions, new products come out for the talent space, where today we sell single data elements. We'll sell a work history to a background screener or a company that's trying to verify where did Mark work before. We now have new solutions that have last job, 2 jobs, 5 jobs, 2 years of history. Different jobs require different levels of history. Appriss now sells their data as a single solution, and it's very unique in its ability to have instant decisioning on that. We'll start come out with packages that are tailored to specific jobs, whether you're in the financial services industry. Let's say, you're handling cash or a security guard or a truck driver or a doctor or a nurse, different data elements, licensing data required. And either through partnerships or acquisitions, we're going to build out that really complete instant data solution for the talent space, which we're really excited about. You want to touch International, John?
John Gamble
executiveSure. So for International, and just a reminder, so the prior long-term framework, I think it was from about 2016. So it's been about 5 years, 6 years since we put out a framework. And the mix of the business in International has changed somewhat. But the way we really think about the long-term framework for International is the bulk of the market, if you think about Canada, if you think about Europe, you think about Australia and New Zealand, they have growth dynamics that are relatively similar to the U.S. dynamics. And we think that the overall markets that International serves as well as the very strong market positions they have across many of those segments gives them the opportunity to grow slightly faster than USIS. And that's really the way we think about the long-term framework we put in place today.
Mark Begor
executiveOperator, I think that's the last question.
Operator
operatorOkay. And I would like to turn the floor back over to Mark for closing remarks.
Mark Begor
executiveWell, great. Thanks, everyone, again, for taking the time. I know we covered a lot this morning. You put a lot of time into joining our meeting. And I want to thank the team, John and the rest of the team for really doing a great job, sharing the story of the new Equifax. We're energized about the future. I hope you are, too. We look forward to engaging with you over the coming weeks and some of the one-on-one meetings we have in investor conferences. And of course, Dorian's always available to take your questions as you really digest our new long-term focus and the focus on growth going forward. Thanks very much.
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