Equinor ASA (EQNR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. It is good to see you all, and a pleasure to welcome you to Equinor's Capital Markets Day, both those of you who are here in the room with us at New York Stock Exchange, and those of you who follow us virtually. My name is Bård Glad Pedersen, and I am the Head of Investor Relations in Equinor. Let me start with a few safety instructions. There are no emergency drills planned for today. So if an alarm goes off, please follow the instructions of the safety personnel through the speaker systems and through the safety delegates who are here together with us. And also, please take note of where the exits are marked. Then I also want to remind you that the presentations today are subject to forward-looking statements. They are included in the slide deck. Then turning to the agenda for the day. We will have presentations from our CEO, our CFO and several members of the executive team. This will be followed by a Q&A session, where it will be possible to ask questions both here in the room and for analysts on the call. After the Q&A, we will have a lunch break and participants here at the Stock Exchange is invited to join also for breakout sessions with the executive team and to the closing bell ceremony. Then I think we are ready to start with the program. And we will do, as we often do in Equinor, we will start with a safety moment. And I would like to hand the floor to Camilla Salthe, our Executive Vice President for Safety, Security and Sustainability. So please, Camilla, the floor is yours.

Thank you. Thank you, Bård, and good morning. Let me have a short safety moment for you. So for us, safety and security start with people. But being a reliable energy provider also means protecting our critical infrastructure in a complex and volatile world. And that requires three things: experience, collaboration and innovation. First, experience matters. Our offshore and onshore facilities, including pipelines are a vital part of the energy supply. We have worked for decades to ensure safe operations of this. This is core competence for Equinor. We have further strengthened our security, building on our experience, learning from incidents and also strengthen the physical preventive and response capabilities across physical, cyber and hybrid threats. Second, collaboration is essential. No company can do this alone. We have close collaboration with authorities and partners across the world. And Norway has come far on collaboration, industry and authorities working side by side, sharing information, training together and building resilience through trust. And third, we invest in innovation. We are constantly improving and are developing solutions that strengthen our barriers and improve our situational awareness and increase our resilience. We invest in technology that identify potential threats faster, making us in a position to protect our critical infrastructure even better. From seabed to space, we use sensors, AI and drones to get better monitoring and insight to have faster response. An example is that we use AI to track vessel speed and turning patterns around our subsea infrastructure. And if it indicates an unusual behavior, an alarm will go off and we can actually act early. So summing up, protecting critical infrastructure takes experience, collaboration and innovation. And that is how we ensure safe and secure operation, reliable supply and long-term value creation. Thank you for the attention. And before welcoming Anders up on stage, we will show you a video. [Presentation]

First of all, thank you very much, Camilla. Good morning. It's really good to see you all, and welcome, and thank you for coming, both you virtually and also you here in New York. I have really looked forward to show you how we have fundamentally improved our company and how we will continue to do so, high-grading our portfolio, driving efficiency growing production and improving profitability. In parallel, geopolitics and markets have shifted, [ making over role ], as provider of reliable energy, more important and valuable than ever. Today, we are really excited to show you how this comes together in a clear strategy and a compelling investment case. More energy, growing cash flow, superior returns, to 2030 and beyond. Okay, let's get started. Our strategy builds on our unique competitive advantage to deliver reliable energy for a world in transition. We are changing the way we work on the Norwegian continental shelf to maximize value. We do this from a strong position in a prolific low-risk basin that we know better than anyone. We continue to deliver focused growth in international oil and gas with large-scale projects in execution, we are deepening our position in some of the world's most attractive oil and gas provinces. We built an integrated power business in markets we know well, with existing trading, gas deliveries and customers. Our energy production is tied together by our trading activities, increasing value uplift and market orientation across all value chains. We expect more energy, growing cash flow, superior returns. This is a robust basis to deliver a competitive and predictable distribution to shareholders, a clear committed for me and the Board. Within capital allocation, the cash dividend is our first priority. We aim to steadily grow it with more than 5% per year. We are doubling this year's share buyback to $3 billion based on strong cash flow. We also introduced a more predictable framework with annual share buyback between $2 billion and $4 billion starting 2027. This Capital Markets Day marks the 25th anniversary for our listing in Oslo and New York. Our performance in the past gives me confidence in our ability to deliver also in the future. A strong improvement in safety are doubling our production, industry-leading in low CO2 intensity. Since the listing in 2001, this has created best-in-class returns. 17% return on capital employed and total shareholder returns of almost 1,800%. On the Norwegian continental shelf, we have consistently beaten expectations. In any given year, since 2001, you can look up external forecast for the NCS, and they will predict a sharp decline in the years to come. We have proven the prediction wrong, time and time again, and we are confident that we will continue to do so. Why? External forecasts do not account for our systematic improvements, the hard work from our people to find more resources, apply new technology, identify new ways of working, improved recovery rates maintained strong production. We have also successfully turned around our international portfolio. We have divested declining assets focused our footprint and created a business delivering 80% growth in cash flow from operations. In total, $20 billion in free cash flow towards 2030 in a medium price scenario of $70 long-term oil. The actions we have taken position us well for what we see in the global commodity markets. First, geopolitics have shifted priorities towards affordability and security. The world needs reliable energy, which balances energy security, affordability and decarbonization. Second, demand for oil and gas is expected to be higher for longer. We can help meet demand and create value from both our NCS position and our international portfolio. And third, power demand is increasing even faster than assumed just a few years ago, more intermittent renewables creates opportunities for a profitable integrated power business. Let's take a closer look what we see in the European gas market. Before the 2022 energy crisis, prices reflected that pipe gas from Russia was the largest source of supply, now LNG dominates the mix. Over time, prices will have to reflect the cost of producing and bringing U.S. gas as LNG to Europe and global competition for LNG will set the price for gas in Europe. With a well-established pipeline network and very cost and carbon efficient production in Norway, we can bring natural gas to Europe with average all-in cost of supply below $2 per MMBtu. Damages to the LNG infrastructure in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz situation further tightened supply, both in the short term and towards 2030. Prediction of -- previous predictions of oversupply have been revised and delayed. European dependency on LNG will continue towards 2035, and beyond. We have actively built the business from a unique competitive position as the largest energy supplier to Europe. Focusing our portfolio around what we are good at. From our offshore experience in Norway, we have built a strong footprint in several world-class basins around the Atlantic. Next, we have used our deep knowledge of developing gas markets in Europe to build a highly competitive gas position onshore here in the Eastern U.S. a region where power demand is rising, in part driven by the data center boom. Brazil will be our next gas market. We also build and integrate the power business in markets we know well, like the U.K. and Poland. We leverage our asset base, trading capabilities and gas position to provide a broad and reliable energy offering. In sum, a unique portfolio with low risk, low cost, low carbon in very attractive markets. Let me turn to cash generation and capital allocation. We have high-graded our investment program, focusing on the most profitable opportunities. We plan for $11 billion to $13 billion in organic CapEx per year towards 2030. Our priorities are clear: around 60% for NCS, 30% for international oil and gas and 10% for integrated power. This is expected to deliver 30% growth in cash flow from operations from 2025 to 2030. In 2030, we will be a stronger company based on our current portfolio and plans. At Norwegian continental shelf with high production for longer, highly profitable international oil and gas self-funded integrated power business and a stronger earnings from trading. We're also maturing attractive future options. This gives me confident to say that we expect to deliver [ CFFO ] growth also towards 2035. With growing [ CFFO ] strong improvements and performance across the business and free cash flow of more than $40 billion towards 2030. We are also well positioned to continue delivering competitive capital distribution to shareholders. This is important to me and our track record is clear. Since 2022, we have remained disciplined and distributed around $54 billion to shareholders. The cash dividend is the foundation and our first priority in capital allocation. We will continue growing the quarterly dividend with more than 5% decrease on an annual basis. We are confident about our plans and are today also presenting a more predictable framework for share buybacks. With oil prices between [ $60 and $80 ] and European gas between $7 and $11, you should expect annual share buybacks between $2 billion and $4 billion. Torgrim will share more details in his presentation. With this framework, we will make profitable investments to grow our business, maintain a robust balance sheet and deliver competitive and more predictable distribution to shareholders. After more than 50 years of oil and gas production, the Norwegian continental shelf is entering a new phase. We are building on our experience to transform our NCS business to become faster, safer and better. Ultimately, this is about creating more opportunities in the future. We make more but smaller discoveries. We develop them faster. We extend the lifetime of existing fields. We already see a quicker pace. We have [ 225 ] discoveries already in production. To facilitate standardization and more rapid project cycles, we will approve groups of projects in waves. We have already defined the first three waves of tieback projects. They will be sanctioned within the next 18 months, adding around 0.5 billion barrels to our reserve base. Tiebacks like this, bring new resources to the market and extending lifetime of existing fields. Ghana is an excellent example. The field was expected to close down in 2028. By connecting nearby discoveries like [ Bridabec ], we expect Ghana to keep running until 2060, extending the lifetime by more than 30 years. This is a life extension story that Ghana share with [ Nona, Orska, Hydron ] [indiscernible], [ Snorga, Oseberg, Troll, Sleipner ] and the list goes on, also with [ Sverdrup and Casbah ]. This means that we today increased our production outlook for the NCS in 2030 and 2035, with 100,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. Internationally, we have made a significant effort to improve our business, divesting and then reinvesting to create a more focused and profitable portfolio with more longevity. One example of this is our onshore portfolio in the U.S. through well-timed business development activities it has become one of our most cash flow -- most robust cash flow generators, now on track to contribute around $5 billion in free cash flow towards 2030. We will also see production growth in regions like Brazil, U.K. and West Africa. The international projects currently in execution add high-value production and even stronger cash flow, 30% higher production, 80% growth in cash flow from operation. With this, our international oil and gas business is expected to contribute around 50% of the company's free cash flow towards 2030. With the actions we have taken across our oil and gas portfolio, shifting gears on the NCS and focusing our international footprint, we expect a production increase of 150,000 barrels per day from 2025 to 2030. In parallel, we build a profitable Integrated Power business from combining our offshore mega projects with short-cycle onshore projects together with power trading. We expect to increase power production to more than 20 terawatt hours by 2030 as already sanctioned projects comes on stream. With growing cash flow, we expect Power to be self-funded in the period 2027 to 2030. For our Marketing, Midstream and Processing business we see an attractive value proposition in further improving our trading operations. Today, we leverage our world-class pipeline network, a significant shipping fleet and producing assets to create value from asset-backed trading. We see further value creation opportunities from scaling, warehousing more risk and doing more cross commodity trading. This means we expect to grow operating income from trading by around 25% by 2030, and we maintain a significant upside potential depending on market conditions. The energy transition will continue to shape our industry and create business opportunities for Equinor. We have industry-leading carbon efficiency, through electrification, energy efficiency and other measures, we have decoupled oil and gas both from emissions. We will continue to mature new business opportunities in CCS and other low-carbon technologies at control costs and be in position to scale when markets and customers are ready. On a day like this, we talk a lot about plans and percentages. But it is our people and how they develop and implement technology, which truly creates results. It is the imagination of our people that created a concept like [ Ørsted ] Subsea Compression, which has increased recovery rates to 90% and has led to value creation of almost $20 billion. Our bright people now apply AI across our industrial processes. Our industry is the original big data industry. We have terabits and even petabytes of seismic data, production logs and performance insights. We have invested in capturing and processing high-quality data we now feed into AI. For us, AI is fueling growth, data centers, demand energy, algorithms improve our production and our people continue to create value from technology. Our people have also invested in the future of this company with 20 million shares, our employees are our seventh largest shareholder group. Where I come from a small industrial town in the very end of a Norwegian fold, people are modest. But today, I can't hide how encouraged I am over what our people have achieved and how confident I am about what we are going to deliver. Our strategy and business plan outline what we believe is a compelling investment case. We will produce more energy, grow our cash flow and continue to deliver superior returns. Our track record shows what we can achieve. So thank you very much for your attention. And then I will welcome our CFO, Torgrim Reitan to the stage.

So thank you very much, Anders, and good morning, everyone. Very good to see you here at the New York Stock Exchange, 25 years after we IPO-ed the company. I was part of the team that prepared the strategy and the targets and what we call it equity story at that point in time. And I must say, it is a privilege to be now and present to you who we are going to continue to create value for our shareholders. So we are going to talk about in 2030 and what's going to happen there. But I would like to start with 2026. It is a year with very strong operational performance. so far this year. We delivered record production. We deliver lower costs. So we are able to achieve higher prices based on higher production assets. This leads to a higher cash flow in the year. So we will use that and we will use it [indiscernible]. We will strengthen our balance sheet this year. We will increase our investments into oil and gas by $1 billion, creating production growth in 2030, and then we will increase our shareholder distribution. So a little bit more details, at an $80 average oil price for the year, we expect a cash flow from operations of $25 billion. That is $9 billion more than we believed in the beginning of the year. So we no longer need to lean on the balance sheet this year, increase, we will strengthen it. Our net debt ratio is had to be reduced during the second half of the year, down from the 15% we had in the first quarter. Also, we increased oil and gas investments for '27 by $1 billion, and that goes to high-return projects in Angola and on the Norwegian continental shelf, supporting the production growth towards 2030. And finally, we doubled the share buyback for this year to $3 billion. After more than 30 years in the company, I know the importance of having a financial framework that is easy and that works through cycles at high prices and low prices. So a growing cash dividend, growing cash dividend. That is our first priority when we allocate capital. And we expect to deliver more than 5% annual growth. Second, we will continue to invest into our business in high-value projects and our investment program has been significantly high graded over the past years. So no, we get more out of each dollar that we invest in this plan. And then third, we will protect the balance sheet. And our intention is to maintain a strong credit rating and to continue to run with a very solid balance sheet. But our balance sheet is a tool to create value. And you should expect us to strengthen it and prices are high, allowing us to continue to invest and continue to provide competitive capital distribution when prices are lower. So therefore, we decided to retire the 50% to 30% net debt guidance that we have had in the past. And finally, we will continue to use our share buybacks to deliver competitive capital distribution. And today, we put forward a more predictable framework to you. And I will come back to this in a few moments. In our mid-price scenario, which is a $70 long-term [ oil ], we expect to generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow. So this is after CapEx and after leases. This is driven by fundamental improvements in our business. We are transforming over the way we operate on the Norwegian continental shelf. We have high graded our investment program in EPI and Power, and we are improving efficiency and costs further. Our robustness to lower prices is even better. The cash breakeven after dividend and leases is around $50 per barrel. So this is an improvement of more than $10 per barrel, and it is clearly demonstrated the effect of the measures that we have taken. So having more than $40 billion in free cash flow that creates a credible foundation for the capital distribution while maintaining a strong balance sheet. The free cash flow that we just discussed, is supported by a 30% growth in cash flow from operations, up from $18 billion last year to $23 billion in 2030, and this will be on similar prices. So what you can see behind me here, you see the cash flows in the blue bars also showing price sensitivities. So a few points on that. Production will increase. But more importantly, the cash flow is growing 4x as much as production, reflecting the quality in the portfolio and the structural cost improvements. Cash flow in '27 and '28, as you see here, is impacted by tax lag effects. So if we adjust for that, it would be above $20 billion in both those 2 years. Then turning to CapEx, and that's the green bars. For '27, we increased our investments to oil and gas by $1 billion and expect that total CapEx of around $12 billion or around $10 billion after monetizing the tax credits from Empire Wind. From '28 to '30, we plan for organic CapEx of $11 million to $13 billion, around 90% to oil and gas and around 10% to power. And you should expect us to be above the mid-range if the commodity prices are high and there is a solid cash flow, and there are high return opportunities. At the same time, we have flexibility to reduce CapEx and in a lower price environment. Our investment opportunities are clear. The first priority is to maximize the value of the Norwegian continental shelf, where we expect to invest 60% of our investments. Second, 30% is directed towards focused growth in international upstream. And I just want to say, I do think that sort of the oil and gas projects really stands out. So to have a look at the numbers, 30% internal rate of return on average in that portfolio that is unlevered and is real return, and breakevens below $40 per barrel. Beyond oil and gas, we plan to allocate around 10% to build an integrated power business. The investments in power will reflect the shift in our business model towards integrated power opportunities. So we will need to see more than 10% equity returns on new power projects and we aim for additional portfolio uplift. And finally, I have to say, I am very proud of the improvements delivered by our colleagues across the business, and that is what makes this possible. So let me move from the investment program to how we drive efficiencies across our company. Continuous improvement is part of our DNA, and we have shown that it works. We have beaten inflation. We have been able to keep operational costs and SG&A costs flat even while we have been growing our production. So now we take new steps. We make further improvements across our staff and underlying processes and deliveries. And this is important because that impacts everything that we do and all activities. But most significantly, we are transforming the way we operate on the Norwegian continental shelf, leading to lower costs faster developments and higher production, [indiscernible], he will cover this in a few minutes. Internationally, we have fundamentally improved the portfolio, as Anders talked you, and it is now set to deliver higher production and lower cost per barrel. And this leads to a very important number, and that is $20 billion in free cash flow towards 2030 in and rest assure, Philippe will come back to this in much more detail in a while. We have also reduced the CapEx plans for power and more carbon solutions by around $10 billion towards 2030, and that is a 50% reduction, 50%. So together, these improvements add 40% to the free cash flow towards 2030 when you compare it to what we discussed 17 months ago. So M&A. M&A plays an important role in how we strengthen the portfolio, how we deepen in core areas and how we build longevity. We have a disciplined approach, and I will speak to the three areas that we focus on, have focused on and will continue to focus on. On the NCS, you should expect more harmonization across licenses and consolidation to capture synergies and improve efficiency. The transaction with [ Aker BP ] a few weeks back is a good example of this. And as the largest operator on the NCS, we will always consider opportunities to strengthen our position. Internationally, the portfolio has been high graded by divesting mature assets while deepening into core areas for growth and longevity. So we have strengthened our position in the U.S. through acquisitions in Marcellus and in the U.K. by establishing the company [ Adura ] together with [ Wisel ]. More than $4 billion are realized in net proceeds since 2021 when [indiscernible]. While we were adding more than 0.5 billion barrels of resources, increasing longevity and lowering costs and emissions. And we will continue to look for more opportunities to strengthen our international oil and gas portfolio and adding longevity. Within Power, a portfolio of platform companies have been built in attractive markets. So going forward, we will focus on integration and flexible power in markets that we do know well. The pace will be dictated by market conditions and the ability to generate strong returns. And we will build this business with discipline and be value-driven in everything that we do. Finally, there is nothing new related to the ownership in Ørsted. Fundamentals are improving in the industry, but consolidation is needed. And stronger collaboration between Ørsted and Equinor can benefit both companies. So we are seeking industrial solutions to unlock value for shareholders, and we are not considering buying more shares for cash. So we have now given you insight in what we aim to deliver towards 2030. But historic performance is often a good predictor for the future as well. So what you see behind me here is the performance of Equinor over the last 10 years and we have measured that against [ BP, Total, Shell, Chevron and Exxon ]. So this is a story of us delivering higher return on capital employed, lower emissions and lower costs than our peers. And this is what we will demand from ourselves going forward as well. So this is the benchmark, and this is what we aim for. So we have led the lead industry on total return to shareholders. And Anders, he showed you the results since the IPO over the last 25 years. Over the last 10 years, it is 210% and leading the peer group. And so far this year, we have continued to outperform. So I think it's worthwhile to dwell on that after 20 years of being listed. Then over to capital distribution. So let me start with the cash dividend, and that is the first priority in our financial framework. In February, we increased our quarterly cash dividend by more than 5%, and that is what you should expect going forward on an annual basis. These represent our confidence in sort of our underlying earnings and our strong commitments to our shareholders. Then share buybacks. As we have mentioned, our share buyback for '26 will be doubled to $3 billion. But today, we are also presenting a more predictable framework for the future going forward from 2027. Buybacks will be in the range of $2 billion to $4 billion when we experienced oil prices between $60 and $80 and European gas prices between $7 and $11 per MMBtu. The buyback level will, as you would understand, be subject to the strength of the balance sheet and macro outlook as such. So this model will be implemented from next year. The buyback level will be assessed quarterly, and this will allow us to adjust during the year if commodity prices move as we have seen in 2026. We will decide the first chance for '27 when we present our results in February. So if realized prices during fourth quarter are in the middle of the range, you should expect share buybacks to also be in the middle of the range. If commodity prices move outside the ranges, we will make an assessment based on our financial framework. So as you can see, the financial framework we looked at in the start of my presentation, will allow us to steadily grow the cash dividend, invest in growth, protect the balance sheet and deliver predictable buybacks through market cycles. So let me conclude. We have built a unique competitive position. And this is the basis for a clear strategy providing reliable energy for a world in transition. And today, we present a stronger company that will deliver more energy and growing cash flow and we will continue to deliver and provide you with superior results. So now you will hear much more from the different business areas. And first, we're going to discuss what we'll do on the Norwegian continental shelf. We have done it before, and we will do it again, and always a privilege to invite a good friend and colleague, Kjetil Hove, on the podium, the man with the plan. So Kjetil, please.

Thank you, Torgrim, for that introduction. And as you say, I really, really like to have a plan that's quite correct. So after more than 50 years of operation on the Norwegian continental shelf, we are now entering a new phase. We're going from mega project to tieback projects with high internal rate of return and short payback time. We have many investment opportunities on the Norwegian continental self. However, they look different than what they have done in the past. A new operating model is required for continued value creation. And therefore, the strategy that we have on the NCS is to develop and access to maximize value. The Norwegian continental shelf has a world-class petroleum system that continues to deliver as shown by Anders. The fiscal regime is investment-friendly and has been stable for decades. The Norwegian state is a 78% co-investor. This improves the risk sharing between the private investors and the state. NCS has been a reliable energy provider close to the European markets for decades. The NCS provides low production cost, low emissions and a very flexible infrastructure. Going forward, Equinor has a unique position on the Norwegian continental shelf, operating almost 70% -- 75% of the production on the NCS. As operator, we are able to drive the development strategy for the various assets. So we are, therefore, very good positioned to capture additional value from the Norwegian continental shelf. Today, I have three main messages for you. We are ahead of the plan, [indiscernible], that we presented at the CMU in 2024. We have redefined the NCS operating model to capture significant improvements. And as a result, we are stepping up our production by adding 100,000 barrels per day in 2030 and 2035. So let me take you through these three points. Since the 2024 CMU, we have had significant progress on maturing new resources. This, you can clearly see on the charts. For both 2030 and 2035, you see much more of the dark color in the current progress compared to what you see in the CMU 2024. So let me elaborate a bit on this. In 2024, 65% of the production outlook that we had for 2035 came from proven resources. Today, 85% of the production outlook comes from proven resources. In 2030, 100% of the production outlook for 2030 comes from proven resources. This has been achieved through highly successful exploration, and since the last CMU, we have had 27 discoveries on the Norwegian continental have. But we have also had significant progress on maturing and growing the increased recovery portfolio and our non-sanctioned development portfolio is being matured according to our plan. We have redefined the operating model on the Norwegian continental shelf to increase pace and reduce cost for our subsea tieback projects. We are planning to deliver 6 to 8 new subsea type projects annually on the NCS. And based on 6 years of experience, from our late life organization, we see a potential to reduce both cost and lead time by 50%. Now we are implementing this experience on all of our NCS assets. Our work process has been significantly changed to improve our decision processes. And this changes are enabled by moving from company-provided requirements to industry standards and from simplifying and standardizing our development solutions. And by using industry standard and standard solutions, we can early secure long lead items. And all of this reduces cost and reduces lead time for the subsea tieback projects. And finally, by utilizing the large project portfolio, we can optimize the rig and vessel fleets and enhance the sourcing strategies for reducing in an overall cost reduction. We are stepping up to realize an even higher production in 2030 and 2035. We have a unique position in the future production hubs on the NCS. In the Norwegian Sea and in the [ Barents ] Sea, we are present in more than 75% of the licenses. And we operate almost 90% of the production hubs in the same area. And these two areas are the areas with the largest future potential on the Norwegian continental shelf. The redefined operating model increases our competitiveness and it makes our large investments portfolio even more robust. Our investment portfolio has more than 500 investment opportunities. The 500 investment opportunities contain development projects, increased recovery projects and exploration opportunities. In volumes, this investment portfolio has more than 3 billion barrels of risked recordable resources. And the investment portfolio is highly attractive with a breakeven less than $35 per barrel and a payback time less than 2.5 years. So let me elaborate a bit more on the development projects, the increased recovery projects and the exploration opportunities. Today, we have more than 65 sanctioned and non-sanctioned development projects in our portfolio. And the portfolio has more than 1 billion barrels of recordable resources. And we have identified the first three waves of subsea tieback projects containing 21 field development projects to be sanctioned within the next 18 months. We have been out in the market for the first wave, and we see that we can deliver on the lead time ambition and the cost ambitions that I talked about earlier. With these first three waves, we will, on average, sanction eight tieback projects in the period of '25 to '27 on the Norwegian continental shelf. And the three first waves gives us around 500 million barrels of recover resources to Equinor, which represent to [ Juan Kasper ] for Equinor. We are exploring for new discoveries, and we are planning around 250 exploration wells in the next 10 years on the Norwegian continental shelf. And this will add significant amount of new development projects in the same period. And we will high grade this project portfolio when we are delivering the six to eight new projects every year on the Norwegian continental shelf. In addition to the development projects, we have a world-class increased recovery portfolio. We have already identified 230 improved recovery projects with a total of 1 billion barrels of recoverable resources. This increased recovery portfolio has a low breakeven and a short payback time. And we also see an additional upside of 3 billion barrels that we will continue to mature towards 2030. The increased recovery portfolio contains mainly infill drilling wells and low-pressure projects. In addition to the development project, we have and the increased recovery project, we have a large prospect portfolio. And we have already mapped 220 prospects with a risk recoverable resources of more than 1 billion barrels. In addition, we expect to identified around 200 additional prospects through the annual license round that we have on the Norwegian continental shelf towards 2035. And based on this, we plan to drill around 250 of our best prospects in the next 10 years. So to conclude, we are ahead of the plan that we presented at the CMU in 2024. We have a strong presence in the future production hubs and licenses on the Norwegian continental shelf. We have redefined the operating model to capture upsides and improve competitiveness. And we have a large and robust investment portfolio on the Norwegian Continental self. Therefore, we are stepping up to realize an even higher production in 2035 of 1.3 million barrels per day. We are planning to invest around USD 7 billion annually towards 2030 on the NCS. And this will give us an average cash flow -- annual cash flow from operations after tax of USD 14 billion in the same period. With our updated ambition, we are securing that the NCS continues to be a reliable, low-carbon energy provider towards the European market. Thank you. And then I would like to invite [ Hege ] on the stage.

Thank you, Kjetil. And let's now shift gear to technology, where impossible is made possible. There is no barrel of oil and gas found drilled or lifted without technology. At our capital markets update in 2024, we said that we are rescanning the NCS all over again, with the use of new seismic technology and AI. And now we see the result 27 new discoveries. A great example is [ Luton and Langman ], the largest Equinor operated discovery in 2025. by reprocessing the data, the seismic image becomes much sharper and leading to the discovery. AI was key from automated data interpretation to efficient well planning. When it comes to field development, the future of NCS Subsea and the use of existing infrastructure. With six to eight new subsea developments planned every year, faster and more cost-efficient projects are critical to unlock value. Innovative solutions, standardization and reuse of equipment will be essential. Our AI tool for field development is transforming our planning process it finds optimal solutions for subsea template layouts and well placements in hours rather than weeks. For future projects, we will use our own subsea technology with standardized interfaces. With this plug-and-play approach, we can pick the most cost-efficient components in the market, and it can be reused. This has already been successfully used on several exploration wells, now we plan to use the same subsea template for exploration and production, reducing time to first oil to 2 to 3 years compared to a historical average of [ 7 ] years. This is the development concept for the [ Omega ] South field. We are further developing the technology to fit a wide range of conditions and expanding the multi-well system. 21 development projects have already been identified. This enables us to develop multiple projects in campaigns to further reduce cost and risk. As Kjetil mention, the NCS has significant increased recovery potential of up to 4 billion barrels. That's beyond the volumes at [ Johan Svedrup ]. [ Johan Svedrup ] is one of the world's most digitally advanced offshore fields, and it continues to outperform the original plan for development and operations. The field has produced 15% more than planned. Pushing this further, our goal is now to increase their recovery rate from 65% to 75%, outpacing the global offshore average of 35%. So how is this possible? Investments in data and advanced technologies allows us to continuously optimize production and operation from multilateral wells, fiber optic sensing to digital twin sun AI optimization. A main challenge is to minimize water production. The solution is technology. Let me give you two examples. First, permanent seismic reservoir monitoring gives us full visibility of water movement over time. This enables us to take better decisions on how to rain the reservoir, where to place infill wells and injectors and resulting in about 2% increased recovery. Second, Equinor leads the industry in ultra-deep resistivity allowing us to look ahead and around wide drilling. This enables us to place the wells further away from the water. This technology is widely used on the NCS and for the [ Dubic ] field. This has been the main contributor to 37% increased production compared to plants. Let's now move to our onshore integrated operations center. 85 billion data points flow from our assets into our center on an everyday basis. It was established in 2018 to leverage data to increase production and reduce downtime. Starting earlier has given us a clear advantage, significant improved data quality and a strong foundation for automation and AI. The center generated $3 billion in cash flow improvements in 2025, with AI as an important part. Taking this one step further with great potential in AI agents to optimize operations at all, we are combining physics with Agentic AI. And this is to identify and remove bottlenecks in the process facility to increase production. The first filing has an NPV of more than $400 million. Let's summarize. We are value-driven in every technology investments. And in 2025, we delivered cash flow improvements at three times the invested amount, implementing new technology. As you have heard throughout the presentation, AI is an integrated part in everything that we do, we see significant potential going forward in our key focus areas, sub-service, operations, supply chain and trading -- I'm sorry, technology is a key success factor for the NCS, new volumes, record high discovery cost efficiency and time to market. And our strong technology innovation and deep operational competence is utilized for further growth across the international oil and gas and power business. Thank you. And now it's time for a break. So please be back here at 9:50. Look forward to see you then. [Break]

[Audio Gap] Systematic High-grading -- we have transformed this portfolio to become a high-quality, cash-generating with growth to 2030 and beyond. We have built a focused, world-class portfolio generating cash flow and delivering strong growth to 2030. And this growth is underpinned by our next generation assets. Last year, we delivered $2.7 billion in free cash flow and produced about 725,000 barrels per day. Looking ahead, we are growing production by 30%, to 950,000 barrels per day. Cash flow from operation is set to outpace production, growing around 80% and to approximately $9 billion. And in total, this translates into $20 billion in free cash flow to 2030. And more than 90% of the reserve that we're going to be producing between now and 2030 are already sanctioned and in execution. This demonstrates high-quality growth. And effectively, we are bringing higher-margin barrels into the portfolio. As I said, our major projects are driving this growth. So let me give you some highlights. First, in Brazil. Bacalhau started production last October and is ramping up. The asset is currently producing up to 130,000 barrels per day and wells are performing beyond expectations. The three producers have the potential to produce up to 70,000 barrels per day each. That strengthened the confidence we have in the asset, and we expect to reach plateau later this year. [ Raya ] is on track. First production in 2028, the project is advancing well. The FPSO is 80% complete. The gas export pipeline has been installed and drilling is ongoing. At Plateau, [ Raya ] is set to produce 15% of gas demand in Brazil. And we have already three gas sales contract in place. Moving to the U.S. In the Gulf, [ Sparta Zone ] is also moving forward as planned, targeting startup in 2028 with around 100,000 barrels per day capacity. In Angola. We are close to sanctioning the [ Greater Page project ], which is a high-quality fast-track project with superior return, expecting to generate CFFO of more than $50 per barrel. And in the U.K., we are building scale through [ Aduro ], our joint venture with Shell, where [ Rosebank and Jato ] are planned to come on stream '26, '27. So what this shows you is that the international trim portfolio delivers quality growth to 2030 and with strong cash flow and peer-leading margins. And this reflects the strategic choices that we have taken for the past few years. Since 2023, we have significantly improved the quality and the competitiveness of the portfolio. That has come from consistent execution and of choices along the way. Today, we're focused in nine countries where we have a strong position. We have divested higher cost, mature noncore position while deepening into core markets, including in the U.S. onshore and creating [ Adura ] in the U.K. And this results in a much more resilient and competitive portfolio. Let me give you some highlights for what we expect in 2030. We generate more CFFO per barrel produced with a 25% uplift in cash margins between 2025 and 2030. And that places us at peer-leading level. We reduced unit production costs by around 30% and to $5.5 per barrel in the same period. That places us in the top quartile versus peers. We are bringing operated CO2 below 7 kilos per barrel. And if you look at the corresponding average outlook for peers, it's 14. And we are cash flow neutral below $40, while still investing for continued growth. And this resilience provides a strong platform for future growth. We have a clear ambition to sustain growth to 2030 and beyond 2030. And we have an attractive option space to deliver on it. And these are the growth opportunities that we are progressing. First, let me talk about some high-value short-cycle opportunities, a capital-efficient way to maximize recovery and generate near-term cash flow. In Angola, we are adding resources through increased oil recovery infrastructure-led exploration. The [ Greater Parge Project ] is actually applying a similar hub and cluster model as on the NCS to develop additional resources. In the U.S. onshore, our Appalachian position, provides stable, low-cost, low-emission cash flow. It is supported by an inventory of more than 2,000 remaining drilling locations. This gives us visibility on sustained short-cycle growth. We also see value upside, both from growing upstream but also from margin uplift linked to trading, LNG and power. The second option space is our unsanctioned project pipeline. And also prolonging the life of existing assets. Here, projects like [ Bednar ] will sustain cash flow beyond 2030, delivering high-value barrels. And we actively extend the life of existing assets such as in Angola, Block 15 and 17 or in Brazil with [ Roncador ]. And third, we are maturing long-term options like Tanzania while stepping up exploration. And this shows that we are not reliant on only one single lever. We have multiple pathways to sustain performance beyond 2030. And with that, let me zoom in on exploration, which is one of the key contributor for future resource growth. Exploration is key for us. to replenish the portfolio and sustain growth beyond 2030. And we do it in a disciplined way. Over the past years, we've mainly focused on lower risk and near-field opportunities. Going forward, we will complement that with two to four wells per year that have stand-alone potential, seeking therefore to unlock more resources. Our main focus is going to be along the Atlantic margin where we already have a very diverse portfolio with $1 billion of risked recoverable resources. We are targeting basins with proven systems where we can leverage our skills, our capabilities in offshore and deepwater. And we expect to spend $3 million to $5 million in exploration per year to 2030. So let me give you some highlights. In Brazil, we are planning two wells with stand-alone potential in '27, '28. [ Jaspe, near Raya, and Turmalina, next to the BP Boomerang ] discovery. In Angola, we have deepened our position with 18 new exploration licenses, and we are maturing several stand-alone opportunities for drilling in the next 2 to 3 years. We are also planning to appraise Angolan Block [ 114 ] and to further understand the gas discovery that was made in 2025. And we are maturing opportunities offshore in Argentina, with potential drilling in a '28, '29 time frame. And as we are progressing the exploration pipeline, we're also seeking to add positions through farm-ins, license rounds and potential entry into new basins, including new countries. So in conclusion, let me leave you with three key messages. Number one, we deliver what we commit, strong, visible growth already in execution with cash flow from operation growing faster than production. Two, we have reshaped the portfolio, improved robustness with top quartile returns through systematic high-grading. And three, we are building what comes next, a highly profitable international upstream business with an attractive and scalable option space. This gives me confidence that we can continue to grow well beyond 2030. Thank you for your attention, and I will hand over to my good colleague, [ Ger ], Head of Project Drilling and Procurement.

Thank you, Philippe, and good morning. After more than 40 years in the company, performance has always been close to my heart. And when I talk about performance is three things that is included. It is safety, it is efficiency and its cost. And today, I will talk about performance within two topics. It is in our drilling and well capabilities. and stand-alone greenfield projects, both supporting our company ambitions. At Equinor, we have built a strong drilling and well organization. Globally, we operate 28 rigs, 14 mobile rigs and 14 fixed rigs on platforms. And since 2013, we had drilled approximately 100 new offshore wells every year. And we have done that consistently through the industry cycles to make sure that we have a supply chain that can support our activities. This chart show that we have achieved significant improvements since 2013, both on the mobile side and also on the fixed rigs. And over the past decades, we have delivered more wells per rig than in the previous period. What this means is that we today drill our 100 new wells with approximately 10 rigs less than we did back in 2013. On the Norwegian continental shelf, 70% of the production in 2035 will come from new wells. And moving forward, we will work systematically to improve performance. From today's 100 wells up to 125 new offshore wells yearly towards 2035. And reduced the cost with 30% per well. We will unlock this through three things: standardization, simplification and integrated teams, creating a factory approach to improve the entire portfolio. No one knows the Norwegian continental shelf better than Equinor. And let me share two examples. First, we have delivered -- developed the [indiscernible] by several tieback projects, and we continue to do this better. During the last tieback, we delivered wells at an average of 4 weeks per well. This year, using the same standardized concept and repeat the operations, we have reduced this to an average of 3 weeks per well. And the best well was below 2 weeks, showing that there's potential is even larger. On the [ Gulfas ] field, a matured, I would say, complex subsurface. Simplification and [indiscernible] has also [indiscernible]. In 2025, we delivered 15 wells with a cost reduction of 20% compared to 2024. And these are just two examples of improved performance. And we are aiming to achieve the same lift in performance on the entire portfolio. Let me then move to the stand-alone greenfield projects. And of course, this comes in addition to all the subsea tieback that [indiscernible] told about on the Norwegian continental shelf. These stand-alone projects are key to open new areas. And you have seen from our track record as soon as we get to the production plateau we focus on extending it either through field wells or adding new volumes for nearby discoveries. Last year, we put to greenfield projects on production, [ Johan Castberg ] and Bacalhau. These projects will deliver and generate value for decades to come. Then we have two greenfield projects in execution, the [ Rosebank ] project on behalf of [ Aduro ] and the [ Haya ] project, both projects are well underway and will bring important volumes to their restorative marks. Looking beyond 2030, we are progressing to sanction two new greenfield projects, [ Beta ] Northern Canada and the [ Sting ] in the Northern Norway. First, let's talk about [ Bedore ]. It's a basin opener for Equinor in Canada with 550 million barrels in recoverable reserves. The concept select was taken at the end of 2025 and with the decision to develop two of the five discoveries. And reshaping the project has reduced the CapEx by 30% and improved the net present value by 30%. The [ Betano ] project is progressing towards a final investment decision in early 2027. When it comes to the [ Sting ], it's the largest undeveloped discovery on the Norwegian continental shelf, with 500 million barrels in recoverable reserves. The concept select is scheduled later this year, and we will work and are still working to improve the project towards a final investment decision at the end of 2027. Both by the [ North ] and the [ Sting ] are expected to create significant value and longevity. To just summarize, in Equinor we have strong drilling and well and project capabilities. Both will be important to achieve our ambitions. Thank you for your attention. And then I would invite [ Helge ], Head of Power to the stage.

Thank you, [ Guy ]. 6 months ago, we established Power as a new business area. And today, I will tell you why we establish power, what power is and what you should expect over the next years. To briefly introduce myself, I have been with the company for 23 years and before taking on the role as Head of Power, I headed up our Gas and Power Trading. We decided to establish Power based on both external and internal factors. And as Anders said earlier, we are investing on the back of two macro trends. Electricity demand is growing, and more of this electricity will come from intermittent renewables. And it is our belief that the energy system will require more flexibility and market-based solutions. Internally, we have built an increasingly diverse business across technologies and we have become a major power trader in the market. So to get the best out of our portfolio, we now brought all our power activities together in one business area, taking an integrated approach. We are now coming out of an investment cycle. And when our mega projects are coming into operation, our power business will enter into a new phase. But before guiding towards the future, I also want to reflect on the history that brought us to where we are today. Financially, there has been some ups and downs. Empire Wind, our projects outside New York has been challenging. But remember, there has also been quite a few positives over the years. Our early projects in offshore wind are now generating high and stable returns. And we also had some well-timed farm downs. Our entry into gas-generated electricity [ Triton ] Power in U.K. has been good. And of course, we are very happy with the integration and the performance of [ Danske ] Commodities. We already paid back that acquisition multiple times. Overall, we are seeing 10% rate of return for the sanctioned and producing portfolio. We have also successfully been able to integrate companies into Equinor through what we call the platform model. The platforms are local companies, 100% owned by Equinor. They have quite a bit of autonomy to protect what is working well while still connecting to the bigger Equinor where it makes sense. [ Danske ] Commodities is our trading arm. [ Vento ] is our platform in Poland, [ Real energy ] in Brazil, [ East Point ] in the U.S. and [ Be Green ] in Denmark. Through the platform model, partnerships and trading, we have built a diverse portfolio. 35 producing and ongoing projects, now producing 5.7 terawatt hours. And we have a portfolio of 17 gigawatts under management through Danske Commodities. To succeed with an integrated approach, we will focus our efforts on where we have a significant presence. And it's not a coincidence that these markets are the same as the landing points for our gas. Gas will be needed as reliable energy in the decades to come in all these markets. So let me share a few examples on how we will add value from integration, working across technologies, using market insights and leveraging trading. In Brazil, we have an onshore wind farm managed by our local platform. We thought that solar would fit well with our grid connection already having the land, having the infrastructure we were able through co-location to reduce CapEx by 30%. In Denmark, a market we know very well, we have a solar farm, [ Inglis live ], and here, we experienced declining capture prices due to cannibalization. Since we had the existing grid connection, we could rapidly develop a battery project. This project has 25% rate of return, lifting the overall economics of the [ Inglis live ] complex by approximately 3 percentage points. Having a large market presence also gives us advantages of balancing the power. For offshore wind, we see a 1 percentage point uplift in return from balancing our equity production ourselves. We have developed a competitive edge optimizing batteries, and this can be quite advanced trading. In the U.K., we are among the top battery optimizers. Due to this performance, we have recently secured several long-term contracts where we optimize four others with a share of the profit. And this is a way to grow our market presence and profits with less capital spend. As the markets will be volatile and complex, the benefit of integration will grow and the future will bring more opportunities. Our significant gas position in Europe and the U.S. is a door opener for us. In the Northeast U.S., the gas markets are physical. And therefore, our gas position in Appalachia can be directly coupled with gas-fired power stations. In the U.S., we already have a virtual power plant that is coupled with our gas and [indiscernible] will soon tell you more about opportunities that comes with such a position. In Europe, the gas market is liquid, and it is an integrated part of the future power system as a backup to renewable energy. Being broad in technologies, deep in the European markets, this will allow us to deliver reliable energy where and when it's needed. So to the part that many of you probably are most interested in, what will then this look like in cash flow and numbers for the next years. We will be growing our cash flow from operations, thanks to the projects we have under execution. Our #1 priority is to execute these mega projects in a safe and efficient way. Empire Wind is around 70% complete. Baltic 2 and 3 are on track to have all 100 monopiles installed this year. On Dogger Bank A, we have all the turbines installed, and we are now progressing on Dogger Bank B. And net 0 [ T side ] is also developing well. I have spent time with our projects to see the progress myself, and I'm really proud of how our people are delivering on this. Now coming out of this investment phase, our cash flow from operations will increase significantly, threefold from 2027 towards 2030. And most of that already by 2028. And actually, the offshore wind business will in itself turn cash flow positive already next year. And this means that power overall will come into a different phase. For the period 2027 to 2030, we will be able to self-finance the business. when also including the effect of the [ ITC ]. Shaping the portfolio going forward, we will gradually shift investments towards more flexible assets and this will create a better balance between short cycle and long cycle investments. And you should also note that over this period, the revenues there will predominantly come from fixed price contracts and capacity mechanisms and as such, that will carry less risk. In summary, an integrated approach to the Power business will secure competitiveness and improved returns. However, the projects have to be attractive on a stand-alone basis. We will have to see at least 10% nominal equity return. Projects with government support and lower risk cash flow will typically be levered, projects with merchant risk will typically be levered. And some projects will, of course, be significantly above this threshold as well. Portfolio uplift, which is value from trading, integration, capital recycling that will come on top of this. So you should therefore expect better returns going forward. We are going to grow organically in our core areas. We will grow our production 4x to well above 20 terawatt hours, and this is thanks to our projects under construction. We will grow our flexible capacity 3x to above 2 gigawatts. And this thanks to our early entry into batteries and the net 0 [ T side ] project. And we expect to double contracted volumes from third parties to more than 30 gigawatts. And this means that we also grow our market presence and exposure without incurring a 1:1 increase in capital spend. Over the guided period, we will generate around $3 billion in cash flow from operations, which together with the ITC is going to be enough to finance this plan. We will, therefore, be self-funded for this period while still growing, self-funded whilst growing. Three points to leave you. One, we established Power as a response to the external world we are seeing and to extract benefits of integration. Two, our Power business is entering into a new phase as our mega projects comes into production, and our cash flow from operations will grow significantly. And three, Equinor is now well positioned to deliver value and reliable energy also in the world of power. So with that, I thank you for your attention. And it is my great pleasure to hand it over to my previous boss, the queen of natural gas Irene Rummelhoff. So please welcome her.

Well, [ Helga], if I am the queen of gas, what did that make you when you work for me, a princeling or? Well, good to see you all. I hope you have some energy left because I have quite a bit of things that I want to share with you. What I will do over the next 10, 12 minutes or so is that I will share with you my reflections on what it means to be a reliable provider energy. Then I'll go into the trading business and particularly some step outs that we are quite excited about. So let me start by reflecting on what I think is a reliable provider of energy. As the biggest supplier of energy into Europe, this is really where my organization works on and take pride in every day. And it is, as Camilla said, it's about protecting critical infrastructure, but it's avoiding safety incidents and keeping up regularity. And right now, we are super proud of the regularity that is 99% year-to-date on our gas processing plants. But it's more than that, there's a softer side to it, it's about the honoring relationships, honoring contracts, helping our customers when they have operational issues and maybe also financial issues. And this is very much the approach that we have taken throughout the Strait of Hormuz crisis. And judging by the incoming call from all over the world, this has been noticed. And I think it's fair to say that our brand name as a reliable provider of energy is stronger than ever. So let's move to our trading activities. As the numbers on this slide shows the MMP organization has added significant value over the last few years, 2, and contributes really well to the overall cash flow of the company. But this slide also shows what I've said to you so many times that our asset-backed trading strategy basically has a limited downside, but the significant upside, particularly in terms of disruption either in supply or demand such as COVID or the two recent wars. The assets that we trade around is the NCS pipeline infrastructure and just about 100 vessels that we have under contract at any given time. They allow us to take advantage of geographical price volatility as we basically can fill in gaps anywhere in the world at any given time. But we also have terminals, storage facilities, et cetera. that allows us to trade around quality and price differentials. And rest assured, this will be also the bread and butter of our trading activities going forward. But when we sat down earlier this year and worked through our strategy process, we tried to couple market insight, market trends, what is really Equinor's strength, such as the brand name we just talked about, the NCS legacy position, the balance sheet and maybe a bit more subtly, our collaborative culture built on years of global trading books. Out of that exercise five [ immuno ] value pockets emerged, and I'll take you through some examples of all of them. When you add up the potential that we identified, we do think when we come into 2030, that we can actually increase our quarterly guiding from USD 400 million to USD 100 million, not today, but in 2030. But let me start with some examples. What do I mean when we talk about selected geographies. With Russian gas being banned in Europe from late '27. There's obviously a big void we fill, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. And it is in these areas that we see significant interest and uptick in asking for long-term contracts, which is probably also underpinned by the general security of supply focus. These markets are less liquid than the Northwestern European markets, which typically offers up higher margins. Also, we're seeing a significant build-out of LNG terminals, particularly in Poland and in the Baltics, which allows us to optimize between piped gas and LNG adding a further value. Then a few words on flexibility. I already mentioned that we're trading actively around the flexibility that the infra pipeline vessel gives us but also upstream offers flexibility. Take, for instance, a crude feel that uses gas injection. We need to basically inject a certain amount of gas every year, but you don't have to inject the same amount of gas every week, for every day. So we can utilize that basically as a gas stored. Then I'd like to take you into a few examples where we've already proven that cross-commodity exposure, and long-term positions are creating value. In our [ Stamford ] office, our gas traders and power traders are basically sitting back to back. And out of that collaboration came the idea of selling some of the gas on power indexation, basically giving us asset to a power plant without physical -- or a [indiscernible] power plant as [ Helge ] talked about. So far, with the massive data center build-out, this has really paid off. And it's also setting us up quite nicely, should [ Helge ] decide to add some physical assets in this region. The same teams on -- I get the back of our very robust balance sheet, have actively pursued transportation capacity into premium markets out of the Appalachian basin. And sometimes these premium markets become very premium. And some of you might recall that gas prices in New York City spiked at $100 per MMBtu this winter and resulting in a net gain on that one pipeline position of USD 70 million alone. I think this is also a pretty good example of what I'm trying to really get you to believe in that the asset-backed trading has a low downside and a significant upside. The cost of that transportation was about $10 million. held up against the income of [ 80 ]. Then let's talk about LPG. I would argue that LPG trading tends to be a bit overlooked but it's actually one of the most exciting ones, and it fits us perfectly. It is a true global arbitrage game where the shipping logistics is basically half of the trade, and seasonality drives enormous volatility. LPG also sits at the intersection of many markets as it competes with NAFTA and the petchem industry, competes with gas and the heating and cooking segments, which sets it up really well for cross-commodity offerings or trading. It is also a very exciting part of a just energy transition, as it basically replaces firewood, dung, kerosene in developing markets and in doing that, saving millions of lives and also emissions. In Equinor, over the last 5 to 10 years, we've grown from a regional player on the back of Norwegian volumes to a true global player. We've done that through long-term sourcing of volumes and vessels and through building extremely strong relationships with some key Asian customers. So today, we're actually one of the top five LPG traders in the world, and our third-party volumes are actually 5x the size of the equity volumes. And as you can see from this slide, our LPG trading certainly hits about its weight also when it comes to the MMP result. In her quite amazing movie, [ Helge ] showed you how we use AI and digital tools to improve the upstream business? But he and myself are also working extensively together to take out the potential that digital tools offers in the trading business. And I would argue that we're starting from a strong position where digital tools already delivers significant value. In Danske commodity, 95% or 90% of the trades are done by algos, algorithms, our LNG fleet is optimized by AI already. And our gate tool, which is basically the European gas optimization tool delivered something like USD 60 million last year. Going forward, though, we will increasingly use our data and market insight into advanced analytics. We will utilize AI to optimize cargo, bunkering and routing. We will increase our algo trading, and we will automate some of the more simple back-office functions. And I wouldn't be surprised if our traders very soon as a small army of agents at their desks. I guess, to sum up, over the last 8 to 10 years, the MMP organization have consistently and significantly built competence and capabilities. And I -- and our brand name is stronger than ever, and I feel quite confident that we're ready to leverage technology and create value from these step outs. But we will also, while we're in the market talking to customers and participants. We will transform the knowledge that we gather into future business opportunities and strategic direction for the company. So thank you so much for your attention. And now, I believe I'm supposed to invite Anders back on stage.

Yes. Thank you very much, [ Serena ]. And also thank you to the rest of the team. In the 25 years since the IPO, we have demonstrated strong performance, time and time again and continue to increase industry-leading value for our shareholders. What we have presented today is our road map of how we will continue to improve. It is how we will make sure to maximize the potential on the Norwegian continental shelf, how we will grow our international oil and gas business with high-value barrels, how we will build an integrated power business ready for the future, how we will expand our trading activity to create value through cycles. And all this is enabled by people, technology, capital discipline and project development excellence. In 2030, we will be an even stronger company with more energy, growing cash flow and delivering superior returns. So thank you very much for your attention. This concludes the presentations. And now we look forward to your questions. Thank you. So now I also would like to invite Bård and Torgrim on stage, and I believe there will be some tables as well.

Thank you, Anders, and thank you to all presenters. We are then ready to start the Q&A. As you will see, Anders and Torgrim is on the stage ready to take questions, but also rest of the CEC will be ready to respond. [Operator Instructions] For those of you who participate here, the system is much simpler. You will raise your hand, and I will take your name down and let you know when it's your turn. You will have a microphone. So we have a few people in the room with microphones, when it's your turn. And I know most of you, but not necessarily also, I will ask you to introduce yourself for the rest. I also ask that you limit yourself to two questions per person, and then you can raise your hand again if you have a [indiscernible]. So then we start, and I think I saw Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs first. So you will get a microphone, and then we start from there.

Thank you very much for the presentation. I wanted to ask two questions. The first one is related to the increased $1 billion of oil and gas CapEx for next year. I was wondering if you could [indiscernible] for us where that increased spend comes from between tiebacks, increased exploration, perhaps for bringing forward some of your largest new developments like [ Wisting or Bedore ]. And then, again, thank you very much for [ unpicking ] for us a tremendous improvement in time-to-market cost efficiency over the last few years. We are now going through some transformation change with AI, digitalization, quicker computing power. I was just wondering where you think that further improvements can come from, if that's mostly on the exploration side, in the subsurface with improved recovery rate or still maybe just more efficiency in drilling and in time to market.

Okay. Thank you very much. And let me start with $1 billion CapEx increase for 2027 million. I think this is really about for us the work that [indiscernible] showed that he has now made a lot of exploration discoveries and put a new operating model in place. We are accelerating some of these projects compared to what we said before. And we're also pre-investing in some of these projects to take down the lead time. So some of this $1 billion is actually moved into the international EPN for accelerating, be able to deliver on the 2030. in addition, we have seen that the [ Greater Parge Project ] in Angola developed very well and it's coming soon for final investment decision. So we would also like to allocate a little bit more capital there. If sanctioned, this will come on stream around 2029, if I remember correctly, meaning, again, cash flow before 2030. And also, as Philippe mentioned a little bit more on exploration, particularly in Brazil, but also some all the opportunities. So this is really kind of a little bit how we think about CapEx which we find these really good opportunities that we're able to invest in now without bringing good returns and cash flow from operation back quite early, we are ready to invest in them. So that's really about finding new opportunities that we now see we capture. When it comes to the AI actually, in every part of the business, we can see improvements, and we are implementing AI now, but it is particularly in the industrial processes that we see the improvement. Subsurface, well optimization, the time to plan wells and interpret the subsurface. I told you so a lot of good examples on the movie earlier. Production and maintenance improvements is really one of where we see the opportunities and supply chain. We also have a quite a good program in AI in supply chain and trading as [ Irene ] mentioned at the end of her presentation. So -- and we're working with the best companies to really improve it. He work at the executive level, both with the management of Microsoft and [ Anthropic ] such that we're able to kind of using the latest technology because we have the data, they have the technology. We have the people with the knowledge and combining that is what gives the results.

Thank you. The next one on my list Naisheng Cui from Barclays. And after that, we will go to Jason Gabelman in TD Cowen. And so Nash, please?

First, congratulations on your 25-year anniversary since IPO. My first question, I really like the chart on Slide 8 where I showed you 15 years of beating expectations on NCS production, this chart Slide 8. My question is, how should we think about the next 15 years beyond 2030, do you think the short-cycle tieback project is not? Or do you need bigger projects to go beyond 2030, and 2035. Then my second question is on your new exciting Power segment. I know all that is a big part of your current renewable portfolio. What is [indiscernible] in your longer-term power strategy -- the stat?

Well, talking about the Norwegian continental shelf and the future, I really like to have Kjetil, the man with the plan. I to say a little bit more about not only but now but also the future there. So Kjetil.

Yes. So going forward, I think the key will be how we are able to utilize the infrastructure that we've already invested in. So a lot of the future opportunities, as I explained in my presentation, is going to be around that. It's about increased the recovery from our exited field and also the tiebacks that is then taken back to the infrastructure that we already have. However, we still have a split within the exploration of 80/20. So around 20% of the exploration effort is going to go to much more risky, but also higher potential opportunities. So you should not be surprised if we come back next year or the year after with some new listings in the portfolio, but it's 80-20, but the key is going to be utilizing the infrastructure that we already have invested on the Norwegian continental shelf.

And when it comes to power, there's no new news or any change in position towards Ørsted. We have a very offshore wind projects that we are executing at the moment. That is our focus. Long term, in selected geographies, offshore wind will improve, with the ambition in many countries. I think consolidation we are part of it, and we think further collaboration with us and used benefit both parties. But as I said, no change in position. This is a long-term industrial position.

Thank you. The next one is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen and back there and after that, we will go on the other side of the room to Chris Kuplent in Bank of America.

Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. The first one is on the Norwegian continental shelf and the production growth 2030. Wondering as you move forward in exploiting the resource there, does the gas to oil composition of your output change. And more directly, is the 2030 gas to oil mix for the portfolio different than it is right now. And then the second one is on the distribution to 2030. I appreciate the additional guidance. If I do some rough math, it seems like the payout ratio is about 30% of cash flow at the midpoint that you presented. You've talked about in the past about wanting to be competitive on the distribution policy against peers. Do you think 30% is enough? And will you use that 30% to kind of guide buybacks quarter-to-quarter in the future?

Yes. So first, a little bit on the gas and oil ratio on the Norwegian continental shelf. I don't -- should expect a big change in it going forward. We -- you will have associated gas with all the oil discoveries, and we will have developments on some of the gas fields that are [indiscernible] for instance, is one of the largest remaining gas fields on the Norwegian continental shelf. So I think you should think about the oil and gas ratio towards 2030 to be fairly similar to what we have today. And then Torgrim, a little bit more on the distribution.

Thank you, Jason. So yes, what we have done today is to put forward something that should be predictable. So you should be able to build some expectation of what will come from us. And I think that is very important for us to build credibility around that. So you actually know what you are facing. And then on your question sort of to what extent this is competitive. So two points in that regard. First of all, I think we need to look at this in the coms broader context around the financial framework, so this is part of a total capital allocation thinking. So point number one, cash dividend. Point number two, reinvestment into higher-return businesses. Third is to maintain a solid balance sheet, and then it is share buyback. So I think we need to look at it in totality. And then on your percentage, I think when you do the math, you get to around that number. And then there are some specialties with us, and it is the Norwegian tax system. So on CapEx, it's a pretax number. Cash flow from operations is an after-tax number. But there, you have the whole tax benefit off the Norwegian investments. So it's, in a way, boosted up due to tax deductions on the investment on day 1. So if you normalize for this, you get to around 40% as such. That is sort of the simplest way I can think about it, but we're then happy to follow up afterwards. But we find it broadly in line with what others have as much, some specialties with us.

Thank you. Then it's Chris, Bank of America.

Two questions, if I may. The first one, maybe for you, Torgrim, you're retiring your gearing target. That's great. I guess, as a loaded question, does that imply that you already expect gearing by the end of this year to significantly undershoot the 15% low end of your now retired target? And maybe you can comment a little bit around the use of that balance sheet strength you've given us an organic CapEx guidance today. What are your plans and ambitions for inorganic? Do you think they need to be funded by disposals always? Which I think has been more or less the case in the last few years. That's an open question. And then maybe for you, Anders, I want to ask you around pro-cyclicality. You're coming here today and you're saying, my CapEx will be at the upper end of the range. in a higher oil and gas price environment. Don't you think by the time [ Beta North and Wisting ] starts to produce oil in 2031 plus you might regret some of that, what looks like pro-cyclical behavior. So maybe you can push back a little bit against that thesis.

Yes. So we are retiring the gearing guiding as such. So a little bit of outlook for the year. I mean, it is coming down towards the second quarter, you would we should expect it to be below 15% and towards year-end, even lower than that, but sort of lower than 15%. So I think that's sort of what you should expect. And we intend to run with sort of a very solid balance sheet as such. Then I think it's sort of important for me to say that in a world that we're currently living with all the volatility and all the uncertainties is extremely important, and we will keep it that way. Then I would say that sort of the range when we put it in place many years ago, it was because we had a gearing above the range, I mean, what we get on. That's not the case anymore. And I would argue that sort of looking to the past, if we have a situation with significant cash inflow as we had during the Ukrainian war, we had a negative net debt. We distributed that back to get back to a normal situation. So this will be sort of the way of thinking about the balance sheet. We will use it also to distribute surplus cash when that is -- that is the right thing to do. Then on M&A, this is an integrated way of thinking about the business. Over the past, we have been fairly balanced in divestment and acquisitions. And we will continue to take that mindset. Of course, I mean, this is not on an annual basis as such, but we will acquire and we will divest. And it is not a mystical thing. It's just an integrated way of the way we deliver returns and build our business. And that is what you should expect.

Okay. And you wanted some pushback. So First of all, if you look at the macro now, what we see and what we have presented also here today, based on the happened in the world, the energy transition goes lower. We see oil and gas for a longer compared to many thought in the past. And that gives us a confidence of the demand in the future as well. And our business about kind of developing these projects, making sure that when we invest them in good times when they are really, really good. When it comes to the $1 billion increases that we did this year is because we have increased the business opportunities. We have very low breakeven for them. We have 30% IRR and lower than $40 breakeven, meaning that they are also in a kind of a cyclical world, quite good in investments. And it's now they are there. It's now they are ready. It's now the host is ready to take them and have the availability to do it, that particularly for the CapEx increases that we had this year. When it comes to [ Wisting and Beta North ], they are also now over time, improved back on kind of oil for longer, we will focus on low breakeven, high return on these projects as well, such that they can withstand cyclicality that we will see in our business. And we have to live with that all the time. But we will always be very disciplined in CapEx. We will make sure that we're high grading our portfolio all the time, not overspending year-by-year, but it's kind of what we have achieved lately now on the Norwegian continental shelf for instance, is that by steadily investing all the time, we're building opportunities and opportunities, opportunities, and we take them when we have them. So that is the way we think around this, also in the psychological -- cyclical commodity market.

Thank you. Next one is John Olaisen from ABG Sundal Collier.

Two questions. First, on the cost side, International rig players are telling us they see significant improvements for day rates in all segments. The subsea players are basically sold out for 2 years and tell us that the outlook for their part of the business haven't been this good for more than a decade. Oilfield service names are increasing margins by the quarter. The seismic industry is so bad at the moment that if market doesn't improve, you will probably see bankruptcies over the last 12 -- next 12 months. So I just wonder, what kind of cost inflation do you see? And have you assumed in the -- for instance, in the $40 billion free cash flow forecast? That was my first question on cost. The second is on exploration. Philippe said that he has standard loan prospects to be drilled didn't get whether that was on per year or between now and 2030. But my question is really on the 250 exploration wells that you plan over the next 10 years in Norway, how many of those or potential stand-alone developments. So two questions, please.

Yes. So let's start with the exploration. So with Philippe, we had stand-alone opportunities, particularly in Brazil, where we have the gas field which is a nearby field to [ Raya ] that we are developing now and also the [ Tumalina ], which is the neighbor to the [ Buran ] BP discovery. So it's done, but also we're working very closely with our other operators in Angola with a lot of exploration opportunities there as well. You are right about the number of exploration wells on the Norwegian continental shelf. It will be about 25 of them per year. But we also do have high-impact wells in that portfolio. And if we were talking about the next few years, there's about three high-impact wells that will be in the Norwegian Sea, [ Noskov ]. And as [indiscernible] showed earlier today as well on the slide, [ Noskov ], Norwegian Sea is one of the area where we have a good position, and there's also a high potential. So there will be mostly [ ILX ] exploration wells on Norwegian continental shelf. But the [indiscernible] team, they will constantly look for high impacts well as well. Well, that's just the -- [indiscernible] to clarify, they will be...

[indiscernible] explained in the last question, of the 250 wells we're going to drill on DNS, around 20% is going to be into what we call higher risk but also higher potential. So then you can do the math yourself. But you should remember that even if there are high impact, many of them are quite close to the current infrastructure. So you shouldn't by default, say that there will be a stand-alone. Some of them may be tied back to existing as well. But 20% of the 250 high potential but also high risk.

And also in the Norwegian, we are the closest one to come. When it comes to cost, we have seen our cost in our -- in the portfolio as all others. We have seen our cost increase over the years, last 5 years in the subsea, in the rig, in the offshore wind and so on. But now we have a portfolio of a lot of projects coming with standardized solution and the suppliers can predict the number of activities that will come. [ Guy and Chatila ] been out in the market with the first wave of standardized solutions. And we already see cost improvements based on that. We see that we're confirming the increased -- the decreased time from exploration to discovery. So this is actually working by standardizing and putting many developments out there. So we are on track to deliver on the improvements that Torgrim showed here, particularly on the NCS part of the business. We have worked really hard over the last years to be predictable, finding the opportunities and we're able to spend the same amount of money into the market giving the suppliers the opportunity to also improve their business. And by using industry standards instead of our own standards, that also help that the suppliers can lower the cost, not necessarily there on margins.

Thank you. We will do a couple of more in the room, and we will do a couple on the phone and then come back to the room. So we'll go to the middle of the room [indiscernible] and Teodor Sveen-Nilsen first and then to you, [ Teo ] from Sparbanken.

First question, that is on your increased ambition NCS of 1.3 million barrels per day, up from 1.2 million. Can you just talk us through the most important changes that has happened over the past 12 months that justifies that increase. And the second question, that is on the return on capital employed that you show that has been much better than peers. Which factors do you think have driven that performance? And which of those factors is sustainable and will also be in place in 10 years' time. Thanks.

So from 1.2 to 1.35 for the Norwegian continental shelf. This is not only what happened over the 12 months. This is last time we had a Capital Markets Day after that presentation, Kjetil and his team, they went to do more seismic, then they identified a lot of new opportunities, then they're starting exploration drilling for those opportunities. And since 2023, they made 45 discoveries, 27 from the Capital Markets Day in '25 with a lot of resources then, how do we actually get them faster to the market. And that is what happened over the last 12 months. The last 12 months, we worked fundamentally changing the way we work, changing all the procedure, looking into where we can do the pre-investment to accelerate. And by doing -- having the resources, have them proven, changing the way we work. So last -- over the last 12 months, then we feel confident that we are able to actually deliver on this. The -- all the organization changes, the new processes, they started 4th of May. So we are already rolling. And what we saw from -- in the first wave has already been approved by me. So we are driving this. And we had also very good response in the supplier market. So that gives us the confidence that we can do Wave 2, that we can do Wave 3 and then also define up the next wave. So that's why we can bring it up. It's actually based on what we have done and not kind of looking into a potential number for production, but based on performance what we have. ROCE, of course, we -- this is about, again, also our consistent investment on the Norwegian continental shelf that we are consistently able to reuse our infrastructure, our pipelines, et cetera. Remember, we are able to bring in new resources to the existing infrastructure at very low cost and also at very high return. And over time, this drives the high ROCE. And with a very good international portfolio as well in a lower tax regime, we see a great growth in cash flow and returns from our international portfolio. Anything you want to add on that, Torgrim?

Thank you very much, Anders. Well, the project portfolio provides a 30% internal rate of return. That doesn't count for exploration and corporate costs and all of that, but it's sort of very consistent with a very high return on capital employed. So that is the starting point. It is sort of the quality of the investment program. And I think it's sort of been working with this for so many years, I think it's actually quite interesting to see that we have been able to maintain sort of both a breakeven and internal rate of return even if there has been inflation over many, many years. So I think this is, in a way, is a testament to what the organization has been able to take out of scale, new concepts on the NCS and an international portfolio. Then I do think sort of a consistency, as you said, on the strategy. We haven't have sort of been doing very much of the same over many, many years and that drives return as such.

One more in the -- I think we have a microphone on, please.

Tsitsi Griffiths from [ Federated Hermes ]. My first question is about the integrated power business. So you talked about reaching a self-funded or self-financed status in a couple of years. It will be interesting to understand which of the segments between the power trading, renewables or flexible generation will contribute the most towards that self-funded status? Or do you expect an equal contribution from those 3 business pillars? My second question is about your position at the North Sea. So you talked about the Norwegian Continental Shelf. You talked about your position in the Barents Sea, but there wasn't a lot of discussion about your position in the North Sea, especially considering the restrictions on new licenses by the U.K. government. So just to understand what your outlook is, do you believe you're in a competitive position? Or do you see potential to sort of improve or sort of widen your participation in that region?

Thank you very much for your question. And I -- Helge is really eager to talk about the power business and Kjetil also on the North Sea afterwards.

So the positive contributor to that microphone. So the positive contribution will come from offshore wind that is by far the biggest. And then we also expect a positive contribution from trading in terms of the self-funding over that period. When it comes to flexible generation, also batteries, we will be in a growth -- very much in the growth phase. So that will then be negative towards the self-funding, but very positive towards the growth. So that's the short answer.

And then Kjetil?

So on the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea and the split between the exploration efforts that we are doing in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea and the southern part of the NCS is a 50-50. So still 50% of the exploration wells will be in the southern part of the NCS. And with respect to what are the U.K. opportunities, that will be a part of the Adura thing, but there are some cross-border opportunities that we're looking into. Last year, we confirmed the oil leg that is going to be developed. So there are some cross-border opportunities that we're also looking into. But the split between the North Sea and the northern part is 50-50.

I have more on the list, but let's do a couple on the phone. And first, we will go to Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.

I'll put two quick ones. First, on the international business to 2030, the delivery there looks critical to meeting longer-term cash flow objectives. So I wondered if you could break down perhaps some of the key milestones and deliverables that you see for the next, say, 2, 3 years to signal derisking of the longer-term cash flows through that business? And then secondly, I wondered if you could just expand on the philosophy on capital allocation in some respects, when I look at how the allocations have evolved and how CapEx has evolved since the beginning of this decade, arguably, there's been a degree of procyclicality to it, particularly through the low carbon and power business in response to the cycle. I just wonder what learnings the company has taken from that when you take stock and how you see that and learn from that looking forward as an organization.

Yes. Thank you very much. And kind of for the international business, there are some key milestone now to deliver. And Philippe and Geir, they are working really hard together to make sure that we can derisk that portfolio. The first one, of course, to bring Bacalhau up to Plateau, as Philippe mentioned. And with very good well delivery, we are moving on that direction. And by having this on plateau by end of this year. The next big project is Raia in Brazil. This is a gas condensate field that will deliver 50% of the gas needs in Brazil, and that will come on stream in 2028. And that -- so that is a key milestone for us for that project. Then also the Rosebank, which is within Adura, but we have been doing the project execution from day 1, bringing Rosebank in 2027, 2026, 2027 will be a milestone and the Sparta field development in Gulf of America where Shell is the operator. I think that's the main milestone we will do. Sparta is also in if I remember correctly. So we follow very much very short, Bacalhau ramp-up, Raia delivery, Sparta and Rosebank and having those delivered, we have derisked the international portfolio. So -- and thank you for these questions about CapEx and CapEx allocation, capital allocation. And of course, we had a totally different view of the market in -- for instance, if you talk about the renewable business 5 years ago. But we very quickly saw that the leases prices went very, very high up. We actually stopped them, although we had allocated CapEx to those type of projects, but we decided not to do them, hence, that we have reduced the CapEx. So we have worked through this internally, and you will see that the plan we're bringing forward today is not a plan with CapEx allocated the potential projects and so on. It's really the projects that we have in the portfolio that we are going to execute. And then we have some flexibility on the CapEx profile such that we're able to capture those good projects or business opportunities as they come along, for instance, an extra exploration well, et cetera. So the way we are allocating CapEx and presenting CapEx today is different from what we did 4, 5 years ago.

We'll take one more on the phone. The next one is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

Just two, please. The first one is just on the international portfolio. You've spent several years reducing your footprint and really you only mentioned U.K., U.S. and Brazil in the last few CMDs. And this CMU, you've broadened out your international focus and talked about a bit more openness to new countries and basin. Can you just talk about what is driving that shift? Is it just a function of the environment or something else? And then second question is just on the comments around Orsted and stronger collaboration. What's not clear to me is whether the people on the other side of the table have the same view. So could you say whether your discussions with the management team there and the Board, whether they're receptive to the idea of greater collaboration? And obviously, you don't have a Board member, and that would have been a way to help align your views there. But just some more color on that would be helpful.

Yes, [ Philippe ], on the international business, yes, first, well, it's important to say that even in the core countries, there are -- we see quite a lot of additional potential. Big stand-alone potential in Brazil. This was mentioned a couple of times, but also in the U.S., Argentina has some potential. What is different is that we do see, for example, in Angola, that the commercial terms are changing, making some of our exploration prospects much more commercial attractive than they were a few years ago. And that changes. This is the difference between [ Greater Page ] being approved and NFID soon, we hope, and [ Greater Page ] being completely in our shelves before. So we see a lot of opportunities unlocking in Angola, both the kind of traditional IOR ILX, but also stand-alone opportunities. Equinor could be a [ big ] opener in the sense that we might be able to duplicate a mini model version of what we do on the NCS around and from -- and in the same way as we could do also replicate the NCS model in Angola because in a way, Angola is kind of 15 years behind the NCS, so we can duplicate and replicate the same formula there to create more value.

Yes. And to Biraj regarding Orsted, as I said earlier, no news, no change in position on that one. We are collaborating with Orsted. It's generally kind of in the industry environment we are today, but there is kind of no news regarding kind of how we will collaborate in the future. When it comes to the Board seat that you asked about, we have said clearly that we wanted the Board seat, but we also said to Orsted before the Board selection that the time was not now. We should have said that a little bit clearer externally as well. So it hadn't created that confusion.

We will revert to questions on the phone, but we'll go back to the room first, and I have Alastair Syme in Citi here at the front table.

I had a couple of questions on the power strategy. The first is about if there's a role for flex gen gas. I mean, clearly, you've got that in the U.K. with Teesside. But do you think you need it in other countries, particularly in Northwest Europe? And then secondly, do you think the business stays as a B2B business? Or do you think to capture the full value chain, you need some B2C as welll?

So in all the markets that we addressed on power, we believe you're going to need a mix of intermittent renewables, which is going to be by far the fastest growing in all of these markets. And then you're going to need flexibility to back it up. So in all these markets, we are looking at options with -- on the flexible side as well, both batteries and the flexible generation. So that could be in other places in Europe as well. But in those markets where our gas is landing and where we also have other power presence. It is also quite interesting in the U.S. being a physical market. There, there can be opportunities where we can connect Philippe Mathieu's gas from Appalachia directly to power plants, and that is giving us a very different risk profile than people that would not have that gas, which then can translate into further agreements with data centers, et cetera. So there are the type of opportunity space that we would typically be looking at.

And when it comes to B2B or B2C, we will never go into the B2C business. That is not what we are good at. But both Helge and Irene are working very, very good with business customers, and that's how we build our business with a strong business-to-business relationship. And as Irene alluded to, this has been particularly strong now during the crisis we have seen lately.

Let's go to Paul Redman.

ItPaul Redman from BNP Paribas. Yes, I've got two questions. The first one was just on CFFO uplift. So you've got a $4 billion swing in CFFO between '28 and 2029. So I wanted to ask what are the key drivers of that swing within that year? And then a similar question, I'm trying to make this all part of one question. You also get a big uplift between 2030 and 2035. And what I'm trying to understand with that uplift is I see production flat. I think -- sorry, production declining. I think the scenario is flat and you're getting about $5 billion uplift between 2030 and '35. So I want to kind of understand there. My second question is just on buyback. You guide to a range and that doesn't start until 2027. I wanted to ask why in 2026, you've only guided to $3 billion of buyback when you could have gone to possibly the top of the range you're guiding forward.

Yes. So let's start with the buyback. So we wanted to be predictable for 2026 when -- on the back of increased cash generation. We had $1.5 billion with the increased cash generation in the first half. We looked at the increased cash and we said, okay, let's be predictable, but we will -- we have decided it to be $3 billion. When it comes to the new framework, we decided let's start with that in 2027 because then we are both today be able to say to you a predictable share buyback level for 2026 and also a predictable framework for 2027 and onwards. So this has been a judgment called using the financial framework that Torgrim outlined on and so on and we landed on $3 billion and implementing the new framework from 2027. And then I think it's based on your slide '27 to '28 cash flow.

Yes. So thanks, Paul, for a very good and detailed questions. So it's actually driven by three things. In '28, there's still sort of a tax lag effect in the numbers. But because if you look at the price curve that we use, it's sort of a falling price. So that is, if you adjust for that, the number in '28 would have been above $20 billion. Then in '29, there is significant cash flow coming in from growth in international E&P business. That is with low cash -- low tax and clearly contributes very strongly to the cash flow. And the last one is actually the step-up in the power business with more and more offshore wind coming on stream. And then power is going to contribute with $1 billion in cash flow from operations in 2030, a little bit less than that the year before. But altogether, those are the three elements driving that growth.

And when it comes to the indicative around 3035 is really based on we are now growing the cash flow to 2030. We are doing that to be a stronger company. And I think you also saw in both Philippe's presentation and also in Kjetil's presentation that we have a lot of opportunity and the risk reserves are quite several billion -- many billion barrels. Within the capital frame that we have -- the CapEx frame we have put forward today, we have the opportunity to develop those further and work on it. So this is -- with this clear kind of 2030 strong portfolio, delivering on that one, but also with the opportunity set we have now towards 2030 and beyond, we have an aim to continue growing the cash flow to 2035, but we are not going to guide on any numbers of it. But we have improved our business. And I think what we have shown today is that we're constantly improving our business, and we're not going to stop now. We're going to continue with that, and that's why we dare to put forward that we see and we aim for continuous growth in our cash flow from operation also beyond 2030.

Let's move to Mark Wilson from Jefferies here at the second table.

Mark Wilson, Jefferies. I'd like to firstly ask on the integrated power. The way that's spoken about now is obviously more integrated. Last year, there was an explicit 10 to 12 gigawatt renewables capacity by 2030. Could you just tell us where that now sits by 2030 within the broader integrated power and Danske Commodities? And I noted CO2 storage, is that target of 30 to 50 by 2035? Is that retired now? So those are the questions on renewables integrated power. Then in the NCS, obviously, a very clearly outlined program going forward and something that the industry can work with, as you mentioned, Anders. But could you just highlight, are there any particular bottlenecks you see in the contractor industry in order to deliver on that longer term?

Yes. I'd like to invite Helge and Irene also to allude a little bit on the development on the CO2 and also on the integrated power. But let me just say, we put forward some targets for renewable, 10 to 12 gigawatts, some years back. But we always have been clear and the same also for the CO2 transportation and storage. But we've always been clear we want to create a profitable business. What we have seen for the renewables is that with higher costs and quite expensive lease rounded, U.K. round 4, U.S. 5 and Germany, we avoided moving into that one, and we have -- our pipeline is then thinner than we thought. We have seen for several years that we will not reach that 10 to 12, and we have never changed it either. So we -- and Helge, I think we'll be around 7 -- 6, 7 gigawatts to 2030. But -- and the same goes a little bit for CO2. We still have an ambition to grow in that business, but we have seen that businesses that want to decarbonize, they invest in decarbonization at a slower pace than we thought some years ago or what they indicated in a market service they wanted to do in the past. And that meaning that we cannot chase an ambition and take those kind of investments on speculation. So we will continue improving and building our power business with also renewables in that power business at the same time, also pursue the CO2 business. So first, Irene, you can say a little bit about the status on our transportation and storage of CO2 and Helge could follow up.

I can do that. I think it's fair to say that we're world leading in this space. We have taken FID on two projects in Norway and a couple of ones in the U.K. We're developing first CCGT with CO2 capture, which I think the world will increasingly need going forward. What we have seen though is that inflation has hit us at the same time as the cost of emitting CO2 has come down, meaning that the missing money gap has increased at the same time as politicians and nations, I guess, who would have to put in money has less to spend, refocusing on defense spending, social budgets, et cetera. So customer alone cannot lift this. It needs to be a public-private partnership, and there's no ground for that. So I think when it comes to the target itself, we have secured enough storage space. So we can deliver on that target should the market be there, but we will not run ahead of the market.

And Helge?

Yes. In the markets that we see going forward, we really want to take a cluster approach. It's our integrated power strategy, and we do that for a few markets. That meant we don't really have space in our portfolio to do a lot of single big investments outside of these markets, which was the plan before, as you talked about, then it would have been Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Spain. And we're not looking at that anymore. So that has been quite a bit of a change.

And then the potential bottlenecks on the Norwegian continental shelf to deliver on those ambitions.

Yes. I could elaborate a bit on that. The short answer is no, but I'll try to say some more about it. If you look at the three segments that we need equipment and so on, it's the brownfield scope, it's the rigs and it's the subsea equipment. On the brownfield with respect to engineering and workforce, that will be ample of capacity in Norway end of this year, beginning of next year. So that will not be a bottleneck. On the rig side, we are in a lucky situation on the NCS that we don't need these high-end rigs, and we have rigs in our portfolio, and we are quite attractive with respect to the duration of the contracts that we're putting out in the market. So we believe and think we're going to be quite good there as well. And then on the subsea side, that is an international market. and we are exposed to that. What we see is that due to the really, really big scope that we have going forward that we are very attractive to the major suppliers in that area and especially when we are so clear on the standardization because then they are able to do the work a bit quicker than what they've done before. So it is no, but with the insight that I gave on the three segments as well.

We'll go to the front left here with Anders Rosenlund from SEB.

I'll just ask one question, hoping for a crystal clear answer. I was kind of hoping for a comment about international production also in 2035, but the presentation didn't include that. But I noticed that Philippe said that he expected or he saw room for growth also between 2030 in the international operation. So my question is, is there any reason to expect 2035 production international lower than 2030?

I think the main message was that we're going to try to work for that to not happen. So we're looking to further grow the cash flow and the production from the international based on the $4.5 billion of reserves that we have that I showed on the option space. We do have quite a bit of growth also beyond 2030. If we manage to get [ Dedinor ] on stream. We have [ Greater Page ], which also is going to contribute beyond 2030 and then exploration stepping up where we are and looking at new basin, new exposure. So that's definitely the ambition to get this way.

I think just to add one thing is what I asked Philippe to do is to really deliver and [ us ] together with [ Guyana ] on the portfolio. We talked about derisking that portfolio. deliver towards 2030, but at the same time, creating those possibilities that such we are able to also have growth towards 2035. And that's exactly what Philippe and his team is doing now, but also utilizing Hege and Geir and the competencies in those two organizations to be able to deliver on that. You have something to add, Torgrim?

Yes. I think on the point of [indiscernible], which Philippe is talking about the cash flow per barrel is very, very high in the structure. And what really matters for us is cash -- sort of the growth in cash flow more in the growth in barrels. So I just want to say that [indiscernible] is contributing even more to the cash flow growth than to the production growth. And that's sort of very important for us to measure.

Henri Patricot from UBS.

Two follow-ups, please, on the upstream. The first one on the NCS 2035 target. I was wondering how you would compare the risk around that new updated target versus the one that you had 2 years ago. I think mentioned that 2 years ago, you had 75% of it proven. Now you have 85% proven. So is there more upside potential to that target today? And then secondly, on the international business, you mentioned the potential farm. Just wondering to what extent that's what you'd be looking for and to what extent that's dependent on your own exploration success that would be effectively a second option if you don't actually have as much success in existing opportunities?

That was for the international business?

International, yes.

So for the NCS because I can give you my view. Kjetil is very confident. And I'm very confident based on what I see the -- how the organization work, how I see Kjetil and his team, they are approaching the task really kind of diving into identifying new IRR opportunities, new exploration opportunities, utilizing the competence in the organization and constantly improve the reserve base as you have seen today. And we are -- with so many opportunity sets in the portfolio and with 45 exploration discoveries since the last 3.5 half year gives me the confidence that Kjetil and his team will deliver on that. Then Geir showed you something else that gives me the confidence, the drilling, the drilling performance that has constantly improved over the last years, 10 rigs less to drill the same amount of wells. That is quite a high efficiency improvement, and we're working to continue to do that even further. And with Hege and her team's contribution, bringing new technology into all of this business, either technology that we can standardize on or new AI technology that bring us to the next level. So on that -- with that respect, I feel quite confident that we are able to deliver on this. Upsides, yes. As Kjetil said, and now the high-impact wells in the Norwegian Sea that I mentioned and in total, 20% of the 250 wells. We have not included any volumes into our production outlook for making larger discoveries. And Kjetil mentioned, he's looking for new listings and so on. So I would also say that with exploration success, there are quite a lot of upsides into this number as well. But those will come a little bit longer out in time, obviously. And Philippe, on the international business...

So on the farm-ins, this would be a mix of farming into exploration licenses even before first well. We've entered 18 blocks together with Shell and MPG in Angola, and that's before first drilling. We just signed yet another farm-in into a Total block in 1621 in Angola. That was announced a couple of days ago, again, pure exploration. We'd be looking also to go into maybe farming into prospects that have proven resources. And then trying to also do the similar type of high grading that we have done for producing assets, looking at our exploration portfolio and potentially diversifying our exposure. For example, [ Tomanina ], we have 100%. We're not going to stay at 100%. We can use that as a trading ship to get something else.

Back to the NCS, I just wanted to give a little bit of insight in the way we think about planning around these things because when we put forward numbers externally and guiding, we need to be very comfortable with that. And we need to be fairly certain that we can deliver even if they are ambitious. And I think I hope you can look to the past or track record in this, meaning that we are not taking all the ambitions from the NCS 2035 into the plan and into the numbers you have seen. So I mean, the plan -- the ambitions are a 50% reduction in cost and 50% reduction in time from discovery to production. And I do believe Kjetil that will deliver, but we haven't put it in all yet. So there's more to come.

Then we go to [ San Ali ] from HSBC, please.

[ San Ali ] from HSBC. Two, please, both on distributions. The first one, if I go back to the 1Q results when you held the buybacks at $1.5 billion and the question was asked, how come we didn't look to raise yet? I believe the response was something along the lines of we would only look to make an uplift based on cash earned at the time. Obviously, today, you increased the buyback. We haven't had a full quarter of results yet. So I guess part of my question is, to what extent is that -- was that a response saving for today? Or to what extent is that genuine -- and then therefore, with the 2Q results based on those results, there could be an uplift or something further based on cash earned at the time? The second question, again, on distributions. I just want to focus on the word competitiveness. If I count it correctly, I think in your presentation, you used the word competitiveness 14 or 15x solely in regards to distributions. It's obviously been a recurring theme in recent quarterly presentations and CMDs as earlier today. And I guess, putting it bluntly, it feels that you used the word competitiveness a lot, but it seems that you don't really illustrate it directly in your presentation or graphically or quantifiably. I appreciate the nuances of the tax effects as you responded earlier today. But yes, to simply put it bluntly, why don't you just show us that comparison on a more quantifiable basis or on a chart, for example?

Yes. Thank you for that comment. Do you think the first question, and you can elaborate a little bit more. But we want to demonstrate that we have a shareholder distribution that is transparent, predictable and also credible. And what we have worked really hard about is to increase the cash flow from operation, increase the free cash flow such that you are able to see that what we put forward is a predictable and credible shareholder distribution plan, which in total, with also the small caveats that Torgrim mentioned, in total is competitive compared to our peers. It is complicated. And that's why kind of it could be easy to put out a CFFO percentage and so on as a competitor, so that would be much easier. But over the tax lag and so on, it becomes really, really complicated. So we have decided that by being more predictable, making sure that we are absolutely credible with free cash flow and that we are cash flow neutral down to 50% and so on, we can put forward that we think that it's really, really competitive in totality. And if you do all the small calculation as well, as Torgrim mentioned, you come up to something similar as our competitors. So that's how we've been working. But I take your comment on the number of times we have used the word.

On the 1.5 that we said in the beginning of the year, we had a question on the first quarter, what to come, if there was something coming in the rest of the year, we said it was a little bit too early. Well, so far this year, I mean, there is a significant increase in the cash flow for the year. So we are doubling that to $3 billion. Important for me to say that this is the guiding for the full year, and you should not expect us to put that in the remainder of the year. We are going to prioritize strengthening of the balance sheet for the rest of the year. And then from next year, it is the new framework that will be used. So I just don't want you to run away with a big expectation on that. When it comes to sort of competitiveness, I think it's your job to make up your mind whether you find it competitive. I can't sort of tell you what you should think about that. What we can talk about is sort of how we think about capital allocation and how we can create best value for our shareholders in totality. And we do think that what we have put forward today is a good balance for that. And then the tax lag on the NCS is complicating everything. We just want to say we'll take care of that. You can use the prices, the ranges and you can get great expectations, and we will manage the fluctuations in the cash flow due to the tax lag as such.

We'll take one from the phone, and that's James Carmichael from Berenberg.

Just coming back to the quickly. I think... You've outlined the undiscovered resource potential across the MCS. I think a significant proportion of the undiscovered resources are sort of thought to be in tight reservoirs. Some of your Norway specific peers have been pretty clear on how they've been building expertise in that area to make sure they're well positioned to be lowest cost, most efficient, et cetera, in those types of projects. Just interested to hear your thoughts around that. Is it something that feeds into your planning? And I guess how technology is helping to unlock some of those opportunities. And then just secondly, you removed the 15% to 30% leverage guidance. I appreciate you put the sort of price ranges around the buyback. But just wondering how we should think about balance sheet sort of guardrails or any specific metrics that we should think about in a downside scenario where that buyback might come under pressure.

Kjetil is already raising his microphone.

No, I think I understood the question. I think it was about tight reservoir and what is the potential of that on the Norwegian continental shelf and what has we done as a company. I think that was the question that was raised. First of all, there is a huge potential within tight reservoirs of the NCS. A lot of resources has been found. And up to now, it's been done nothing with it because there are other things to be handled on the NCS. But lately, we, as a company, has started to take the experience that we gained from the U.S., in fact, and then stimulations on some of our fixed drilling rigs. So on Stratford and especially Gullfaks, we have seen quite good results with respect to stimulating the tight reservoirs that we have in Norway as well. So that is a big potential. It's going to be the next wave of increased recovery initiatives on the Norwegian continental shelf. The big thing now is to also have high profits with respect to this also for the mobile rigs, and that's what we're going to do now, look into how we could utilize this technology, not only from the fixed rigs, but also from the mobile rigs. So there is a huge potential. We have done quite a lot, but up to now on the fixed rigs. Now it's about doing it for mobile rigs as well.

And the guard rates, Torgrim?

Yes. So we took away the guiding because we didn't find it a useful tool to communicate with our investors about because, I mean, it didn't serve the purpose. In times with high prices, we typically would like to strengthen the balance sheet to enable us to be consistent and also invest in low prices and be competitive when it comes to capital distribution in low prices. So the framework we're now putting forward related to share buyback, that's sort of within the range, you should expect us to use the prices to establish a level within that range. Then sort of outside the range, if prices are above $80 and $11 gas, clearly, that gives capacity to do more. But then we would like to strengthen the balance sheet. If prices are below the ranges, we will take a more holistic approach as such. And -- but clearly, there will be considerations made related to it. Remember, in a $50 environment, we are able to invest and grow and pay cash dividend as such. And so that sort of reflections of what can happen around the guardrails. But I think I also would like to be with you, we have had a situation over the last year with significantly negative net debt, and we used the opportunity to return $54 billion to shareholders. So I think in this -- with this guardrails, it still is a willingness for us to pay back surplus cash when that sort of is sensible and the right thing to do.

I have one in the back there on table #3. And then I have Teodor on my list. And while we get the question now, I will look at you all to see if we have overlooked anybody, and then we'll conclude afterwards.

[ Jared Anderson ] with S&P Global Platts. Irene had mentioned that the U.S. oil and gas trading business had benefited from the growth of data centers and that there could be an opportunity to add physical assets. Can you just add a little more color around that?

Yes. Irene?

I might also look to Helge for that. But I think we kind of early on saw that there was a big uptick in data centers in the Appalachian or the PGM market. And at that point in time, we didn't really have a strategy to justify going in, taking physical assets, but we decided to do contractually. So basically selling the gas on the spark spread, which allows us to take advantage of that. So -- but with Helge, we are jointly working together to see if it does make sense to add physical assets in that area as well.

So imagine you're planning on building a data center. If you look at the cost per gigawatt of these data centers, you're in a very different league than what we're talking about when it's about the gas production, right? So what you really want to secure is that you have that power and you have it for that duration of that data center. In the U.S., the gas markets are physical. It's not like in Europe where you have a big liquid hub where everybody can go and buy for the next few decades and basically no matter what. So if we come in there, we will actually have that predictability. So together in the right partnership, we think that we can have something extra to bring in that constellation because it's about security of supply, basically being a reliable energy producer. And I think that gas position in the U.S. is special in that sense. Happy to discuss more in the breakouts as well if you want to continue on that one.

I would just add, when we talk to customers, they want physical gas to back it up, but they also want a very robust balance sheet. So I think Torgrim is also helping in that respect.

Then we'll do the final question, Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank.

Year-to-date production has been very strong, particularly in Norway. Why don't you increase production guidance for this year?

Yes. So first of all, first quarter, really, really good, fantastic work from all our people, high production efficiency. We saw the projects that Geir and his team put in place in Castberg, [ Halnest ] and so on, all of them contributed very, very well. So we are off to a very good start. But we are still in second quarter and third quarter in the maintenance and turnaround season. What I can say, we keep the production target at 3%, but we feel very confident about that production increase and even more confident than when we put it forward. But we keep it at 3%, as we said in February.

And regarding summer maintenance, are you able to push some of that back given the high oil and gas prices? If you -- are you able to delay some of the maintenance this summer season because the prices we see now?

Well, we have not delayed any of our maintenance. This is a learning also from the 2022 crisis. We had some deliberately change in maintenance season then to help out Europe. But in the long run, we are always better off making sure that our platforms have the technical integrity, they are maintenance when they should be maintenance. In that respect, we're able to keep up the high production, high production efficiency over the long term. So that's why this year, we have followed all our plans so far, so good and very good production over the first quarter and also towards the second quarter.

Thank you. And I think that concludes the Q&A session. So I want to thank all participants for joining and for asking your questions. We will now, for those who attend here, move on to lunch. It will be one floor down. So it's out in the back of this room and then down to the right. Afterwards, you are invited to join the breakout sessions. And if you have signed up for that on the back of your name tag, please don't check now because all the sounds -- sounds like broking glass. But on the back of your name tag, there is an A, B or a C, and that indicates which room you will be in for that breakout session. If you are unsure about this or if you are not registered to participate, you can talk to any of us in the IR team. Later, you are also invited to join the closing bell ceremony. So that concludes the plenary session. Thank you all very much.