Essentra plc (ESNT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Essentra Half Year 2021 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Paul Forman. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome. It's my great pleasure to share with you and my colleague, Lily Liu, the Group CFO, the 2021 half year results for Essentra plc. If we go on to Slide 2, and I discuss the agenda. I will give a brief overview of the highlights from H1 2021. I'll then hand over to Lily to discuss financial performance. And then I will talk in some detail about the highlights of each of the 3 divisions, the initiatives by which we are continuing to build for the future. And then I will conclude with a reprise and give a snapshot on our expectations both for 2021 and then some thoughts on where we see 2022 emerging. So if we move swiftly on to Slide 3, the highlights. I've chosen to use the word encouraging to describe the first half of this year. I think it reflects the coming to fruition of a number of underlying programs, perhaps some of which have been partially obscured on the beneficial impact by the pandemic. But I really do think that we are emerging stronger out of the last demanding 18 months. I think there are 3 key points that I would draw to your attention. The first is that we have positive quarterly revenue trends across all divisions with the second quarter at a group level showing growth not obviously just versus 2020 but also in aggregate versus 2019. The second point I would make is that we are seeing quarterly margin expansion in all divisions, and we expect the second half of 2021 to show continued progress versus the first half and, again, for that pattern of margin expansion to continue in 2022 on 2021. And the third point I'll add to this really quite, to use the word again, encouraging organic growth picture is that we will continue our focus on accretive M&A in specifically Components and Packaging in strategically attractive segments. We have a robust balance sheet. We have good operating cash flow, and we have yet further enhanced liquidity, and Lily and I will dimensionalize that. And finally, we are proposing an interim dividend of 2p, which represents a continuation of the progressive policy, which we intend to adopt going forward. So having given that overview, Lily, I will hand over to you, please, to share the financial details.

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I hope you're keeping safe and well. Turning on to Slide 5. I'm very pleased with the encouraging set of results delivered in the first half of 2021. Now in this section, I will provide financial details, and let me start by highlighting 3 themes that Paul also mentioned in his introduction, and I believe those were important in the first half: growth, margin expansion and strong balance sheet. In terms of growth, we delivered like-for-like revenue growth for the first half of 7.5%. And versus 2019, it was 1.9% down. The chart in the bubble illustrate our journey in the last 18 months. We improved each quarter following the recent low in Q2 2020. Q2 2021 like-for-like growth accelerated to 13.7%, and we are also ahead of the same period in 2019 by 2.5%. In terms of margin expansion, our adjusted operating profit increased by 34% year-on-year to GBP 35.7 million with adjusted operating margin at 7.5%, an increase of 130 bps on constant currency basis. Our Q2 margin was 9.8%, higher than Q1 2021 and same period in 2020, and only marginally down from Q2 2019. The margin improvement was driven by self-help actions, operational leverage, notwithstanding the impact from cost inflation. Adjusted EPS was up by 40% at 7.7p, thanks to the operating profit improvement. And last, our strong balance sheet. We reported net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.5x pre-IFRS 16, consistent with the year-end position for 2020. The overall net debt ratio decreased to 1.7x. We issued USD 250 million private placement debt in July with maturity profile ranging from 7 years to 12 years. This is consistent with our strategy to increase long-term funding for the company to support sustained growth. Now moving on to Slide 6, the summary of the income statement on the adjusted basis. Group revenue for the first half was GBP 475 million. And as I mentioned a minute ago, on the like-for-like constant currency basis, is up 7.5%. Adjusted profit before tax at GBP 28.7 million, 51% growth versus H1 2020. Adjusted earnings at GBP 23.2 million, which was up 61% with adjusted EPS at 7.7p. We included the income statement on a reported basis in the appendix for your reference, and the reported EPS was 6.6p. Now turning on to Slide 7, revenue by division. Components reported revenue of GBP 148 million, growth of 20.3% year-on-year. On a sales per working day basis, first half was 21% up versus 2020. And Q2 2021 was up by 39% from 2020 and 7.2% from 2019. The order book continues to be strong across all regions despite those supply-side challenges. In late 2020, you would remember, we announced certain strategic initiatives in Components and Packaging. In this environment, we're phasing the restructuring activities to prioritize service delivery to our component customers, and we remain confident in delivering the overall expected savings. Packaging delivered revenue of GBP 187 million, a 5.1% like-for-like decline from 2020, driven by lower level of elective surgeries and prescriptions versus pre-COVID levels. We are expecting the health care market to improve, will start to catch up on the huge backlog. Versus 2019, the like-for-like decline was 8.3%, also reflecting that in H1 2019, the business was positively impacted by the introduction of the Falsified Medicines Directive in Europe. 3C! Packaging that we acquired in September 2020 performed well and contributed around GBP 80 million to division top line. Filters reported revenue of GBP 140 million, 12.8% growth and was flat comparing to 2019 against the backdrop of structural decline in the tobacco market. Outsourcing contract won in 2020 was the main source of growth. Overall group revenue was up 7.5% like-for-like with improving trends quarter-on-quarter, which is a good reflection of our growth strategy focuses on innovation, sustainability as well as strong customer partnerships. Moving on to Slide 8. Let's now talk about profitability by division. Components posted operating profit of GBP 27 million, an increase of 17.3% against prior year at constant currency, with a very healthy margin of 18.2% and Q2 margin with 19.2%. Comparing to 2019, our margin was down largely driven by cost inflation from labor, material and freight and a less favorable mix. We are implementing price increases in second half to offset cost inflation. Allowing timing of existing orders to be fulfilled, we are expecting that Q4 margin to be close to the 2019 level. Packaging reported an operating profit of GBP 9.6 million, more than double the profit for the same period in 2020. The margin was 5.1% with good sequential improvement. That Q2 margin was 6.1% and one of the highest quarterly margins, thanks to the cost controls and savings from restructuring activities completed which will continue to deliver in the second half of the year. The division is marching towards that target -- the target exit margin of 8% to 10%, thanks to the cost measures, pricing actions, unexpected modest growth in the second half from the health care market. Filters OP was GBP 11.5 million, growing at 18.2% with a margin of 8.2% for the first half. I would like to highlight that Q2 margin was 10.8%. Versus 2019, the margin reduction was largely driven by lower NPI volume in the mix due to COVID, which we expect to see improvement. The reported Central cost was GBP 12.4 million, was around GBP 1.7 million higher from H1 2020. The increase was entirely down to performance in variable incentives as we previously guided. All our divisions and all functions continue to balance cost management and investment in innovation, sustainability and other growth initiatives. Overall group profit of GBP 35.7 million, 34% up from prior year with all businesses delivered margin expansion with Q2 margin at 9.8%. Slide 9. Now moving down the P&L, as always, let me talk about finance charge, tax and minority interest, this time in reverse order. Minority interest of GBP 0.7 million from our India JV and the China JV. As we previously communicated, our China JV commenced production in June as planned, and we continue to expect a small operating loss in 2021 as we set up and ramping up volume. Our effective tax rate is 16.7%, lower than our guidance of 19% to 20% due to the impact from U.K.'s change in corporation tax rate, which came into effect very recently, and we have a onetime noncash benefit of deferred tax asset around GBP 2 million. The net finance charge of GBP 7 million was about GBP 700,000 lower than H1 2020, thanks to lower debt level. The newly issued long-term debt in the form of USPP will substantially reduce the reliance on short-term RCF. And I expect our interest charge will increase as a result on an annualized basis by about GBP 2 million. We expect broadly to be EPS neutral. And for 2021, the benefit from lower effective tax rate will more than offset the higher interest cost at the EPS level. Now moving on to Slide 10. Our net debt ratio is 1.5x equivalent to the 2020 year-end position. First half operating cash flow conversion was 63%, was lower than historical average, about 90%. As previously indicated, we have invested in our working capital to support revenue growth as well as mitigating some supply chain challenge that the business faced in the form of additional inventory. But more importantly, our LTM average net working capital ratio -- net working capital to revenue ratio was 12.9%, a 20 bps improvement from the 2020 level. We continue to invest into our business with CapEx around GBP 23 million, major projects such as BPR, which went live in Spain early July, and Components digital transformation. In the second half of this year, we will accelerate some CapEx in supporting commercial growth, especially additional futures outsourcing contracts, which annualized the value [ about ] GBP 15 million. And I expect that full year CapEx will be around GBP 55 million for 2021. I would expect our full year cash conversion to be broadly in line with our historical average. After paying interest, tax and pension contribution, our free cash flow was GBP 4.7 million. Slide 11, net debt. Our net debt increased by about GBP 3.7 million in the first half. And we maintained the same net debt ratio of 1.5x after paying GBP 10 million of 2020 final dividend. Overall, we maintained a strong balance sheet to support organic and inorganic growth. And the recent issuance of USPP debt provides optimal long-term funding for the business. Now putting P&L, balance sheet together, Slide 12. For the first half 2021, our ROIC was 7.3%, a 60 bps improvement from the 2020 year-end position. We continue to focus on ROIC as a key financial measure. And ROIC is included in our long-term incentive plan and underpins our rigorous capital allocation. Before I hand it back to Paul, let me reiterate that I'm very pleased with the first half result with 3 key highlights: growth, margin expansion and strong balance sheet. Now with that, I'll pass it to Paul to provide divisional update. Paul, over to you.

Many thanks, Lily. I think overall, a reassuring picture, both in its nature and the breadth of it. So if we then please go on to Slide 14. Before I go into the divisional performance, I'd like to just update you on our progress in each of the elements of our ESG agenda, which I think the last 1.5 years, with its almost enforced focus on introspection and analyzing what we're doing has really made us, I think, make very significant progress. So if I start with environmental, you will recall that we have 4 main targets and 4 main areas that we are holding ourselves accountable to make material progress in so that we achieve our goal of class-leading sustainability. The first is sustainable materials -- the use of sustainable materials and that's particularly in relation to Components. And here, as you can see from the slide, having started the year at only about 2%, I'm pleased to say that by the end of the first half, the content of recycled material is about 7%. We're making particularly good progress in LDPE. And so versus our target of 20% by 2025, I think we've made some really strong progress. Equally, with our 45 manufacturing sites where we want to have them all 0 waste to landfill by 2030, almost half, you can see the 20 manufacturing sites are now certified, and we think that another 2 will hit that target in the course of H2. So halfway there to our target by 2030, so I'd be supremely disappointed if we didn't beat that time goal comprehensively. Greenhouse gas. Our method target is to be carbon neutral by 2040 with an interim step of being 25 -- having a 25% reduction by 2025. That's versus the baseline of 2019. And there, you can see that 5.5% has occurred in the last period. So that's, again, encouraging progress. And in terms of waste reduction, 20% reduction by 2030. We did see some improvement Q2 on Q1. And I would say that whether that be solar panels, whether it be use of green energy, whether it be upgrading our equipment to more environmentally efficient usage, I would say that we're really making quite a lot of progress in developing a very comprehensive program there as well. On social, we continue to really stick to our key pillar through the pandemic, which was about safeguarding the emotional, physical and financial well-being of our employees. And that's not just the immediate employees but all of those involved, but also particularly, I would say, in the -- in our sites in the developing world, also not just our employees but their families and the communities. And I'm really proud of the way that we've done that. Most recently, obviously, we've been having major outbreaks in India, then Indonesia and now Thailand. And the local teams have done a fantastic job securing medical availability testing and indeed vaccination. So thank you to the local teams there for a wonderful job you're doing. We also are very keen to support the U.K.-based initiative of encouraging BAME talent to get to the very top of organizations, and we have to that end, a new Board trainee who has joined very recently and she will be attending Board. She'll be learning and seeing the dynamics there. And no doubt she'll be contributing fully as a very, very talented up-and-coming star of the future. And it would be remiss if I didn't, and when I talked to our colleagues all the time, say thank you. You humble me with the job that you do. It is just amazing and to keep the quality of service and performance going that you do is just outstanding. If I then turn on to governance. We've got a well-established Board Sustainability Committee set up in addition to the standard set of committees led very passionately and skillfully by Ralf Wunderlich, one of our NEDs. In the last 6 months, we've also then, to provide some kind of coordination, set up an ESG Steering Committee, which I sponsor and is run by Jon Green, our Legal Counsel and Head of Legal Risk and Governance. Clearly, we're aware that in this life where at least 3 out of our 8,000 people are remote training, we've redoubled our efforts on compliance and on cyber in particular. So those have been 2 real focuses. And also, given the increasing emphasis in -- on U.S.A. through the acquisitions of microplastic innovative components and most recently, obviously 3C!, and therefore, our increased business waste in 2D to the U.S.A. and North America more generally. Delighted that Adrian Peace who is having an illustrious career with people like GE and WW Grainger is now there and is our kind of ears and eyes on the ground but is also the employee champion for our North American region. And Adrian has only been with us a few weeks but is already adding great value to our Board discussions. So I think that's a really positive development not just for the running of the business but for the governance. So if we then go on to Slide 15, and if I can just delve into a little more detail in all 3 divisions and give you some highlights. You'll recall that this business is, for those of you who are not quite so familiar, is serving industrial production in a broader sense. And our overall goal is to provide hassle-free supply of small components and thereby grow at 4% to 5% above industrial production. We have made, I think, good progress both in terms of continuing, and we've emphasized this to maintain supply -- we've had supply challenges, whether that be Brexit, whether it be availability of trucks, whether it be availability particularly of factory and warehouse operators in the U.S. and sometimes raw material availability. However, you can see from the statistics in terms of the ability to sustain major growth that by prioritizing, if you like, the supply side, we're continuing to grow. And very pleased that Scott Fawcett and the team are doing everything we can to sustain that very high growth level. Clearly, we have faced cost challenges, and so we put price increases in July of this year to mitigate and offset those. And whilst our primary focus obviously has been on keeping our customers fully supplied at a time when growth has gone really very significant, we still are focusing on the commercial initiatives such as enhancing our e-commerce offering and the use of AI, and I'll talk a little bit more about that. We expect within the next week or 2 that the acquisition of the Hengzhu will complete, which will be another landmark development in our expansion into our target growth market, which is China. And as I mentioned before, we've been really making good progress with our sustainability agenda, and now in LDPE of Kidlington factory, we're up to, in some areas, about 40% recycled content. In terms of the numbers there, you can see them there but good strong 19.2% operating margin in Q2. Very good and encouraging growth not just obviously versus 2020 but 12.5% versus 2019. So I think, overall, an encouraging picture. And I'll say a bit more about how we see margin trajectory towards the end. If I then go on to Slide 16, Hengzhu. This is what we would call a strategic bull's eye. The access hardware market, which is things like locks and latches and hinges, which we first entered through an acquisition in Turkey about 6, 7 years ago, this is one of our fastest-growing and strategically most critical markets. So that, combined with the fact that it is a leading player in our key target geography, which is China, shows just how important it is to us. It is immediately earnings accretive. And the opportunity to cross-sell the products but also for it to give us a still stronger footprint in China is really exciting. If we then go on to 17, we talked about the importance of transforming this business so that we can grow at industrial production plus 4%, but then to industrial production, plus 5%, 6%. Given the complexity of this business, the number of transactions but also the need we have to be as hassle free for our customers, to enable them to find the right product as quickly as possible, it is clear that the digital transformation is key to this business. And we've just highlighted 4 different aspects, 3 of which relate to the front end and then 1 to the back end. So the customer experience being able to easily quickly find the product that they want. They may well have technical questions after that, but at least to get to that level, hopefully, in 3 clicks. And also to be shown complementary products that maybe they will need. So that's one area where we're making progress and getting in a good cadence of every 3 weeks constantly tweaking and upgrading based on customer experience and our analysis. Secondly, with those millions of transactions and those thousands and thousands of SKUs and thousands and thousands of customers, this of all the 3 divisions is the one that most lends it to immediate value creation by the use of big data and big data analysis. And we're working with PEAK initially, which is an artificial intelligence partner. Initially, we focused on using data patterns to see what cross-selling opportunities. And now we've started to also focus on smart pricing. If we take then in the bottom left that digital front end, which has really been very positively received, it was in Europe and North America. We're now rolling it out, Singapore, Malaysia and then Australia and Thailand. So increasingly, it will be the single platform that any customer worldwide will have to access the Components product offering. And then last but very much not least is that those 3 relate to the front end, the back end, whether that be primarily finance or operations, there are real opportunities to expedite, to improve, to make efficient our internal back-end processes. Very pleased to say that our Spanish site has gone live. So all of its finance, its operations and manufacturing, warehousing, customer order taking, finance. And whilst clearly, it hasn't been, on day 1, the perfect experience, it's working well. We are achieving in those areas the same kind of levels as we were pre-go-live now in performance. So that's really encouraging. And the plan is to roll that out across Europe for the -- in the remainder of the year. So that's Components. If we then turn on to -- on Slide 18, Packaging. Clearly, the margin expansion is important. And as Lily has already mentioned, if I draw your attention to perhaps the bottom left corner of the table, you can see the operating margin of -- at 6.1%, which represents good progress on our goal of 8% to 10%. And if one takes into account the fact that we have implemented price rises in July and will continue in August, and also that we will start to see the benefit of the footprint enhancements and also some of the structural organizational changes that we announced in Q2. We're confident that -- assuming there is not a reversal of underlying market trends or challenges to the health care systems, that we should be on good track there. Some highlights there in the bullet. We have seen a sequential improvement, as we've already highlighted. Particularly commendable, the restructuring projects were -- particularly with the 2 factory closures, we -- the team did a fantastic job in retaining virtually all of the business, notwithstanding that customers have to be transferred. And that will be a real stimulus and fillip to our goal of reaching those margins. Delighted to say 9, 10 months in, 3C! is performing in line with expectations and actually have contributed very materially to the overall management depth and caliber in North America so much so that the MD of 3C! now has line management responsibility for North America. As I mentioned, we have faced some cost pressures, particularly around labor and raw materials. So we are mitigating those through pricing actions in H2. Despite that, we have, I think, continued to foster increasingly strong relations with our customers. I think we've been a standout supporter and supplier and now partner to them through the pandemic. And we do an annual survey. We've literally, and this is hot off the press, I think within the last 2 or 3 days, got the results. And I'm delighted to say that Iain Percival and the team there have seen the score move up, notwithstanding the stresses and strains in the last 12 to 18 months from 8.1 last year to 8.4, which comfortably puts us in the upper quartile. You will remember that a few months ago, we won Packaging Company of the Year in the U.K. So I think those are data points which point to an increasingly strong customer franchise. And I do believe that we are increasingly making the transition in the customer's eyes from being a supplier to a partner. I'll give an example of such an aspect in a second. And in terms of the worldwide battle against this terrible curse that we've had for the last 15 months, delighted that of the 5 approved vaccine producers, we are now doing a full suite of offerings for 3 of those. So it's a privilege and an honor to help support this fight. If we go on to Slide 19, I just wanted to highlight 2 things, one of which is an example of how sustainability is permeating so much of what we do, but secondly, how we are increasingly trying to partner and provide broader business solutions. We had a sustainability week in the spring. And Packaging used that as an opportunity to announce the launch of their Re*flect product. The challenge is for packaging companies in the medical and the beauty space to achieve a metalized look so that you get the gloss and the luster on the design. And that can be anywhere between 6% and 15% as it says there. However, aspirationally but also increasingly from a legislation point of view, that will not be acceptable by 2025. So Re*flect is a plastic-free alternative that, through the properties of our treatments, can actually create the look of plasticized products but has no plastic in it at all and is therefore 100% recyclable. Just an example of, I mean, our sustainability focus in our product offerings as well as our processes but also how we are trying to help address the broader business challenges that our customers are facing in the next few years. So last but definitely not least, let's turn to Filters. Strong growth there. One of the game changers, the major one that's had an impact in 2020 on -- 2021 [ better ] part on 2020 and which we think will also drive good growth in 2022 on 2021 is outsourcing contract volumes, order of magnitude about GBP 20 million annualized per annum. I think, again, I talked in Packaging about the COVID period really cementing our view -- the views of customers of us as a partner as opposed to a supplier. And I think their increasing willingness to outsource to us shows that trust and respect and stature we have in their eyes in Filters just as it does in Packaging. Really encouraging that the China JV has commenced production, very good chemistry between ourselves and our 4 industrial partners, particularly Fujian Tobacco, our lead partner. And you can see a picture of the opening ceremony there. The really exciting thing, in addition, is the opportunity we have for both doing good but also boosting the business in our Eco filters, and I'll talk more about that in a second. But also the next-generation product opportunities, particularly for Heat-Not-Burn or THP, typical heat products, is one which we think offers good opportunities. And we see from the announcements, results announcements, things like BAT Imperial, Philip Morris, how increasingly significant that is as part of our business. Margin is obviously important, and we want to continue to focus on quality of earnings and again, just drawing your attention in the slide there to the 10.8% operating margin achieved in quarter 2, which is getting back, as you can see, to the levels in 2019. And then finally on Filters, and I've talked to many of you about this one on one. The launch in December last year of a set of 3 different approaches to biodegradable and sustainable filters, delighted with the response there. So far, we have initiated 53 projects with 10 customers. The most advanced MNC that we're working with, most advanced chronologically, will be launching a test in August. And so we are all excited to see how the consumer responds to that and really could be a benefit not just for the Filters division commercially in the medium to long term but the planet. If we can help create a product which is broadly similar in cost, at least safe, if not safer, and offers a very similar consumer smoking experience, but also does degrade an order of magnitude faster, then that is a tremendous and an exciting prospect. And clearly, as you'd hopefully expect, we're not resting on our laurels with those 3. We were continuing to develop new ones. And also the really encouraging thing is we have at least one but probably more customers that will look to do something similar in terms of product launch in early 2022. So that's all I propose to say about the 3 divisions. If we then go straight on please to 2023 and how do we see the rest of the year. Clearly, it would be foolhardy to say we know exactly what is going to happen in the world. And clearly, there remains uncertainty. But having said that, we expect the OP, the operating profit, for the full year to be in line with expectations. Components and Filters, we think will continue that progress. Obviously, compared to 2020, the rate of growth will slow because there will be tougher comparators. But nonetheless, with those initiatives, those organic growth initiatives and the really exciting opportunities that we've referred to, we think we will continue to gain market share. And Packaging, all of those things that Iain and the team have under their control, they continue to do really well. We are seeing some signs in the U.S. of a recovery in health care demand, which is encouraging. I shared the view a few months back that we probably see a sequencing of U.S. recovery, U.K. recovery and then Europe. That seems to be the picture. And we seem to be, therefore, having some U.S. with talk about the U.K. beginning to underlyingly recover and then Continental Europe. So in that context, we continue to see that sequential margin and revenue growth progress that we talked about. And then looking ahead, in terms of expectations and targets, extrapolating that, we think that Components can get back to broadly pre-pandemic levels in 2022 but continuing to invest in some of those things that really do separate and differentiate us from our smaller competition. We believe that having hit the Q4 annualized level of 8% to 10% that Packaging should deliver a year in [ 2022 ] in that range before it moves on further. And Filters, as with Components, the delivery of game changers but also the growth in new product introduction volumes which are inherently a higher margin because of their one-off and spot nature, we believe we are well set to get back to pre-pandemic levels there. Clearly, there's a caveat about macroeconomic progress and some recovery in health care specifically. But in that context, that's how we see at this current level of time 2022. So if we finally go into 2024 -- Page 2024 -- Page 24, I beg your pardon. Encouraging performance, reflecting, I think, a lot of progress, which -- some of which have been obscured by the volumetric impacts of the pandemic. Three messages of -- firstly, that we've seen positive quarterly revenue trends across all divisions that we're in a growth now versus 2019 at a group level, and we expect to see those quarterly improvements continuing; that we equally saw quarterly margin expansion in all divisions, and we expect H2 to continue that versus H1, and as I've just said, 2022 to show that versus 2021; and that with the balance sheet we have, with the strength of cash flow, we will continue to supplement our organic growth and margin agenda with a continued focus on accretive M&A. That is all I was proposing to say. So if we go on to 25, I'll now open the virtual floor for any questions.

[Operator Instructions] And your first question today is from the line of Charles Hall.

You very helpfully set out some margin targets for next year. Can I explore a little bit more the thought process behind them. Obviously, there's a lot of supply chain inflation going on. So presumably, the pricing activity that you've already done and have put in place is enough to cover that in order to deliver those margins. And also, your assumption on economic conditions, particularly in components, obviously, the most economic piece -- part of the business. How are you thinking about that in 2022 in order to get back to that 21% margin you did in 2019?

Okay. Charles, thanks. If I take that -- the questions in reverse order. Our thinking is that there will be a tapering from elevated to more normal levels of industrial production from the start to the end of 2022. I think it's somewhat unrealistic or overly conservative to think that on Jan 1, 2022, it's suddenly going to drop markedly to a more standard industrial production volume level of, say, 3%. Now clearly, you know more than me that this is all subject to caveats on what happens to the next variant, the epsilon variant or whatever it may be. But that's the underlying thinking. Three main drivers there for that return to margin, one of which is operational gearing. The second is the full year benefit of the second round of price rises that we've put in, in July because, obviously, we're getting all the cost but not the full year impact. Plus we would intend to do our normal start of the year pricing. And third would be the benefits of things like cost actions. We consciously said that we had deferred some footprint activity to focus on making sure we had the optimal service level and then the normal suite of things like purchase activity, et cetera. So combination of factors, really, Charles, on that. In terms of the -- is that okay on Components, Charles?

Yes, perfect.

If we then look at Filters, again, we have done some pricing action in the year, but broadly, that's neutral. We know already that we will have volume gain at a gross level and, therefore, assuming we don't have major volume losses at a net level from outsourcing deals, we will see the China JV as volume goes into it to go from a small loss to a small profit, so there's a swing there. And clearly, there will be the normal raft of different continuous improvement activities as well. And if on Packaging, you will have full year impact of the footprint changes that we've undertaken and the organizational development changes, clearly, we are now 2 factories lower than we were in June, so there's a kind of annualized benefit of that. We do believe that there will be -- subject to health care recovery, generally increased volume, whether or not it is at a normal level, whether or not it is tapering up to a normal level or indeed, in the most bullish case, whether there's actually an above-average level as there is catch-up play, I don't know yet. But clearly, I would say that if you look in the past, our 5% to 6% sales growth, 200 to 250 bps, but 2/3 of that was predicated upon the benefit of operational gearing. And given the size of the factories, which are kind of on average are much smaller than filters, they are heavily operationally geared. So you've got that, you've got some pricing impact, and then you've got the full year impact of footprint changes.

Perfect. Just going back to Filters, you talked about some volume gains from outsourcing. What's the quantum from '21 into '22?

I think it would drive underlying revenue growth for the division of mid-single-digit growth.

Okay, fairly significant in the context of that division then.

Yes.

And then just lastly...

And they're confirmed. They're confirmed.

Yes. Yes. And then lastly for me, you talked about labor availability issues in North America, which is a market problem rather than just an Essentra problem. But how are you doing in terms of recruiting and retaining people?

We've moved underlying salaries quite markedly, albeit we are in terms of offsetting that with price through the full year, we will offset cost inflation, Charles. We're making progress. To be honest, you can often have local radio advertising, you can have these events and you might have half a dozen people turn up. So it is a very tight labor market. Whether or not, once the Biden support starts easing off in September, October it will get easier, I don't know. So we are making progress, but it is in our -- both our North American Packaging and North American Component, the biggest single rate-limiting step we have. What we're actually seeing, Charles, at the moment is just the first green shoots in the medical packaging market of growth in demand. I've been saying for a while, my guess was it would be the first term we are seeing that. So we are now looking at how we get additional labor in not just to support the status quo volume but anticipated growth in volume.

And is this mostly a cost issue? Or is it actually impacting on sales as well?

It's both. Particularly with Components where we're still seeing very strong industrial growth. So what we're seeing is orders continuing to grow margin in excess of sales.

Right. Okay. So that bodes well for second half volumes. If you've got enough workforce to...

I mean, Charles, you know me, I'm very straight. If I was in magic wand territory, 100 to 150 factory operators, that would be my present from you to me if you could [ magically ]...

[ I do like that ].

If you've got 150 close friends who don't mind working in a factory, let me -- send them my way.

I've got a few young lads that could do that.

That's fine. I'm desperate.

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Douglas from Jefferies.

Charles has got off couple of questions, but I've just got a couple more. Can we think about the Packaging margin in the current year? Clearly, the 6% number in the second quarter is a nice route towards your 8% for the full year, hopefully, a bit more than that. But in terms of the bridge there, you clearly got some self-help coming through. You've clearly got hopefully some market. How close could you think you can get to that 8% to 10% without any market help? So just trying to figure out if the market recovery gets deferred again or -- for a couple of months -- how much of that is within your wheelhouse?

Yes. I think 7 to 7.5.

Okay.

The factory closures give us about a 100 bp improvement, something like that. And then we've got the delta of, say -- we've got pricing coming through, et cetera. Obviously, we've taken the costs, so that's an incremental benefit.

Yes. Okay. Understood. Chinese joint venture clearly now up and running and going in line with your timetable. Do you guys still have the same aspirations and believe you can still get to where you think you can get to on the Chinese joint venture if we look out a couple of years compared to when this thing was first set up? Could you just give us an update on how you see the opportunity there, please?

Yes. I don't sense that there's a change in the dynamic either with our partners or the aspirations or indeed the market potential, Andy. I think we're working well with our 4 partners, particularly our main partner, Fujian. I still think this business can do anywhere between GBP 50 million and GBP 100 million at above-average margins in the longer-term time frame.

Yes. Okay. Great. And clearly, we have an aspiration to do additional M&A going forward. Can you just give us a feel for the pipeline and how well positioned you guys are as a team to do kind of consistent 1 or 2 bolt-ons every year? Is that still the aspiration?

Yes. I would say we had a Board strategy review yesterday, Andy, and we looked at deals ranging the size from 20 to 200. And there is -- the Board concluded that whilst a lot of those are -- have been companies we know but don't know really well from being able to have that kind of a conversation, but there are enough opportunities that we should be able to sustain 1 to 2 a year or -- and we might even contemplate something more medium size as well. We have been involved in 1 or 2 processes, but we've decided not to pursue for reasons. So the availability is there, but we're maintaining -- because there's a lot of potential options, we only really want bull's eye ones as opposed to pretty good or good ones. We want very good fits. And we're still laser-like focused on if we can't, in a prudent case, seed our way to this year 3 15% ROIC, we walk away.

Yes, understood. And again, just a quick follow-up there. You've clearly got a lot going on. All 3 divisions have got things there -- there's a lot of work being done here. Did the management bandwidth at the divisional level for that level of M&A, is that still fine?

Yes, we have within, say, the Components leadership team kind of a separate strategy/M&A capability. And so that kind of keeps -- frees up the, if you like, the day-to-day BAU management. I think also, Andy, that -- now that we're starting to put BPR in the business, that will also help facilitate simulation. So yes, I'm pretty comfortable. And actually, to be briefly honest if -- with the exciting opportunities, we're just going to get some additional talent.

[Operator Instructions] And your next question is from the line of James Beard from Numis Securities.

A couple, if I may. Firstly, on Filters. You obviously spoke about the sort of sustainable filters and clearly some interesting growth opportunities there. What sort of timescale would you estimate for unit cost of that product to come down to a sort of broadly similar range to conventional filters? And then secondly, just on Components and particularly on the sort of -- on the website initiatives, have you got any stats to hand as to what level of sales acceleration you can see in countries where you've implemented the new website and website upgrades?

Okay. So I'll take those in reverse order. So it's -- we basically rolled out the website now into 92% of our sales. I think it is something like that, James. It's really difficult to disaggregate according to specific causal factors. What I would say is that in the surveys we do, we've basically -- it's gone from being a major source of noise to really not being mentioned at all. So it's removing [ a negative ]. I think our growth rates are clearly indicating that we're continuing to gain market share. So I would say it's the biggest single contributing factor to that. But whether it's 1/2 of that, 1/3 of that, 3/4 of it, I'm afraid even with my propensity to make things up, I really don't think that I could ascribe something particularly. And what was the first question, James?

The timescale on Filters, yes.

Yes. Well, 2 timescales, one of which is, I think, James, that we should know within 3 or 4 months the success of the commercial trial, which isn't what you asked but I'll throw that one in any way. And that's going live in early August. And I would say that given we're basically using the same kit, it's only really a slightly different process with a different material. And so 12 months to get used to doing it and getting it up to kind of business-as-usual type operating efficiency.

And we have a follow-up question from Charles Hall.

Paul, you mentioned Heat-Not-Burn and the MNCs making positive statements on that. Can you just update us as to where you sit on that and what the scale of opportunity is?

Yes, we have dialogues with all the MNCs. And I think we have opportunities to commercialize -- are doing a little bit, but mostly it's sampling at the moment. As you know, the market is quite focused on one particular player with others now beginning to catch up. So we see opportunities there as increasingly, that market grows, not just in percentage terms but in absolute terms, Charles. The other thing is that in China, the government is set to remove the ban on THP and indeed vaping in the next 12 to 18 months, I believe. And we're also developing products there. And we may end up funnily enough because it's totally virgin territory. And obviously, we're the lead special filter manufacturer. I find it not being conceivable that actually, our first main THP product is in China as opposed to the non-Chinese world.

Interesting. And in China, specifically, any update on the growth in the specials market compared to normal combustibles?

It continues to gain share, Charles. If you remember, penetration was only at about 4% versus a 15% to 20% average for the rest of the world. I would be misleading you if I said I had exact data as to its penetration, but it's actually an interesting point. I'll ask Kamal to see what data exists up to date from our partners. So that's a useful stimulus and prompt. Thank you.

Well, at least I've done one useful thing today.

No, no, nonsense. You've got me 150 workers as well, remember?

Good point. I'll let you know.

I look forward to the confirmatory e-mail.

[Operator Instructions] And there are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

Okay. Well, thank you. Thank you for joining us this morning. I hope you feel that the word encouraging has been rightfully borne out by what you've heard today. I think we are making good progress on many fronts. As Andy Douglas said, there's a lot of activity, but I believe it's overwhelmingly positive and is bearing fruit. So thank you for your time. Thank you for your questions. And for those of you who are existing investors, thank you for your continued support. We're very grateful. And I look forward to speaking to you with Lily one on one at your convenience. So have a good day. Have a good weekend, everyone, and stay safe.

With that, we conclude the presentation today. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect.