Flagstar Financial, Inc. (OBAI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 9, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsThanks, everybody. Good afternoon. We're excited to welcome Flagstar Financial with us as our next speaker in fireside chat. We're excited to have Joseph Otting, the Chairman, President and CEO; Lee Smith, Chief Financial Officer; and Rich Raffetto, the Senior EVP and President of Commercial and Private Banking.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesThank you.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsThanks very much for being here.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesHello, everybody.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsYes. Maybe we'll start off maybe at a higher level with your background, Joseph is former controller of the currency and your lead director's background is former Secretary of the Treasury. It feels like Flagstar may be a little closer to regulatory leaders in the administration today than your average bank. Where would you see bank regulation? Or where do you expect bank regulation to go from here? We've all been eagerly awaiting some clarity on Cat IV and where you see some of the early opportunities for positive movement?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. First of all, it's a pleasure to be here at the conference. This is one of the pre-M&A banking conferences. So thank you very much for hosting. And just by the volume of people and the excitement of the individual meetings, it's a great opportunity for Flagstar. This is like our coming out party, so it's great to do it at the Barclays Conference. I think when you think about regulatory relations in the U.S., I think from the banking industry side for a number of years, they felt like the cost of the structure was prohibitive. It was complex. It was difficult and it impeded really good economic growth in the United States. And I think under this administration, they've set a priority for the banking regulators to always have a safe and sound banking industry, but that they really want the banking examiners to promote growth in the U.S. And so how is that occurring? I think what you've seen President Trump do is sign a number of executive orders to drive certain aspects of the regulatory community to allow banks do what they do best is lend money, participate in their communities and provide services and be that engine for growth. And where do you see those priorities occurring? I think we've seen some really pretty quick shifts by taking reputational risk out of the card deck, so to speak, of the regulatory community because frequently, the regulators would tell banks, they didn't want them to do that for reputational risk purposes, which was difficult to define. But I think removing that had a real positive step. I think de-banking is one we're seeing today where the -- I think the fact of the matter is there has been a lot of debanking that has gone on over the last 5 to 7 years in the banking industry. I think bankers generally point to the AML/BSA regulations as what I've said is like when they look at who are your check cashers, who are your payday lenders, who are your gun manufacturers, who are your bullet manufacturers? And then how are you managing both reputational risk and AML/BSA. Frequently, a bank would say, well, I'm making $25,000 off that relationship and it's costing me $50,000 to manage the regulatory risk. And so you saw a big exit in that regard. And I think the third area that you're going to see, I think, really Travis and Micky and the other Jonathan regulatory community is really thinking through should Flagstar Bank be regulated as a large bank under the same lens of JPMorgan. We've proven in our country that a regional bank can stumble, almost fail and be absorbed by the system, but we can't have a JPMorgan or a Bank of America or a large bank in America. So really, I think there has to be added review and ensuring that they're complying, but a bank our size does it really require that enhanced regulatory infrastructure that is very costly to manage and maintain. And can those monies and resources be used to support communities and customers.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. Over the last 2 years, Flagstar has obviously gone through a lot of transition and change since you came on board and have brought in a new management team. Maybe just give us a little update on progress towards the goals that you've laid out. At first, it involved a lot of balance sheet movements and structuring, capital raises and a plan for future growth. How -- where are we on the path of that?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. Well, first of all, I think we're in a really good spot. We had highly talented people in the company. We adjunct that with a number of senior executives who had long tenures in the banking business. And then I really believe our Board -- we've accumulated one of the best Boards in the banking industry. There's not too many boards that have the Secretary of Treasury on the Board, Milton Berlinski, who runs a major fund and very knowledgeable banking and then just a lot of what I would describe resident expert. And it really takes both good management and Board, I think to steer a bank that perhaps was in trouble like this bank was. And the story was this bank got over its skis, so to speak, in commercial real estate, and most of those asset classes were bulletproof for the last 10 years. But if you're in this industry long enough, and I say every asset class has its time in the barrel, and we were in one of those cycles where not only multifamily, but regulated multifamily was really experiencing stress. And so when we came in and brought capital to the bank, and we said, look, we want to build a really strong regional bank that serves communities across America and has a very highly diversified balance sheet. And so over the last 12 to 15 months, we've raised our capital to be one of the highest capital rated banks in our space. We have one of the highest liquidity levels. And we've really now focused on the future of building out this successful regional bank that focuses on profitability, strong risk governance structure and being able to replace some of the banks that were best-in-class in service in the industry like Silicon Valley and First Republic, Signature Bank and Union Bank become that bank of regional banks that really offers what we think is best-in-class service. And we're well down that path now. We've really dramatically reduced our commercial real estate exposure. And under Rich Raffetto's leadership in the -- literally in a 3-quarter period, we've now built this machine of commercial banking professionals. We've recruited roughly 200 into the bank. That last quarter, we did $1.8 billion in commitments and roughly $1.2 billion in loan outstandings. And our goal really is to get the balance sheet to look much more deversified in the future.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. You announced that you're going to be collapsing the holding company. You have a special shareholder vote coming up in October for that. What's the time line for completing that? And what are the benefits for removing the holding company?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. So just for clarification, what we're doing is we're taking the holding company, and we're merging that into a federal savings bank, and then we're going to merge simultaneously, the Federal Savings Bank the National Bank and effectively not have a holding company. And so the question would be, well, why would you do that? And I answered that question is because the things that you normally use a holding company for, we won't be doing. And what are those things? Well, frequently, people will have insurance as part of the bank that's done at the holding company. They will want to make equity investments either in funds or various equity investments, we don't to do that. Or they'll do lending that generally will move away from the deposit coverage that will be in the holding company. None of that is something that we have strategic plan. And so for us, it became an unnecessary layer in our regulatory oversight and structure. So it just made sense both from a cost and oversight perspective to collapse the holding company. And we think that is the best structure for Flagstar Bank.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsRich, maybe shift to you a minute here. And then I hear you joined the bank and you lead C&I and Private Banking. There's a corporate goal to have 1/3 of loans from C&I. How's traction? How is it going and trying to build that out? Maybe you can just talk a little bit about the hiring process, how you're attracting good relationship managers, how you're tracking clients? And how is the growth outlook looking now?
Richard Raffetto
ExecutivesGreat. Thank you, Jared. Thanks for hosting us today. I've been a commercial banker for 35 years. Joseph has a couple more years on me. But having had both of us grow up in the business of relationship building and in commercial banking, that's the approach that we're taking here at Flagstar for sure. I think our legacy institutions played in C&I, but it hasn't always been in a relationship-focused fashion. So what we're doing is we are scaling our commercial banking platform and our Private Banking and Wealth platform. And on the commercial side, if you look at us compared to peer institutions of like size and complexity, we've really been underpenetrated and punching below our weight in commercial banking. So we and the Board saw a really great opportunity to scale our platform and relationship-based commercial banking. And we've been successful to date in attracting, as Joseph pointed out, nearly 200 new professionals to the organization that have selected Flagstar as the next spot for their career growth. And we're really focusing on attracting mid-career bankers who have proven success either in the geography that they've operated. And obviously, we're looking to round out commercial banking in all of the geographies were Flagstar has branched -- has north of 360 branches around the country in 4 big attractive geographies. But we're also building out on a national basis, certain specialized industry practice business units and capabilities and attracting mid-career bankers who have a reputation and a following in a particular industry segment. So we've scaled our specialized industries platform along those lines from 5 specialized industry verticals to now a dozen or so. And we'll further build upon that strength. And we've added new capabilities such as in the energy system, both in oil and gas banking team as well as the renewables energy team. We've further scaled our activities in the health care C&I practice. We've added a technology and communications team and we've also added an entertainment and sports team. So as we've seen opportunities and then finally, we've more recently entered the subscription finance business as we seek to serve the financial services industry both on the fund side and insurance, et cetera. So as we scale up these industry specialties, we're able to have a running jump start, if you will, that's providing further momentum from a loan growth perspective and becoming meaningful, whether it's a multibank situation or a bilateral singular bank situation, we have instant street credentials, so to speak, with bankers who know the industry have great relationships in [Rolodex] and we're able to jump start that loan growth. And as Joseph pointed out, in the second quarter alone, we had new originations and increased originations of over $1.8 billion, and we're very optimistic about keeping that momentum going into the third quarter and beyond as we continue to onboard new bankers in the last 4 quarters, north of 100 revenue-producing bankers have chosen to join the Flagstar platform, and we are far from done.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsWhen do you think you sort of hit that inflection point where it's -- the hiring is behind you and you're really just being able to book that growth?
Richard Raffetto
ExecutivesWell, I think from a C&I perspective, each quarter that this management team has in place, we've slowed the decline of C&I loans, and we very purposefully pruned the portfolio as well as the legacy bank had some low ROE lending-only relationships as well as some really large exposures relative to what we thought was prudent for a bank of our size and complexity. So we've pruned the portfolio purposely while we've ramped up the originations engine. And we're getting to that point of inflection, so to speak, where we're looking at net loan growth going forward, I think, in the C&I book.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsHow do deposits play into that? You mentioned just trying to move away from that single product relationship and more into the full relationship. What's the outlook on the deposit growth side from commercial?
Richard Raffetto
ExecutivesGreat. Well, I think our commercial and private bank, we have a vibrant platform to build off of. We benefit from having over $21 billion in deposits, many of which we have relationship primacy and we are the primary operating bank. So we're building off of a good base across the commercial and private bank. So there's a real opportunity. And given the relationship focus that we have going forward, we expect, obviously, we'll start to ramp very quickly on the lending side, both in bilateral relationships where we are the primary bank and selectively into multibank relationships where we have a direct dialogue with the company, and that will drive deposit growth going forward as well as fee income momentum. And we're not only investing in bankers and relationships, but we're also investing in product capabilities. So we're seeing an increased volume in interest rate swap not only capabilities but activity, foreign exchange, treasury management service fees, well as commercial card opportunities, Private Banking and Wealth related to those new relationships on the business side and capital markets opportunities where we just haven't had those opportunities in the past.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsOn the Private Banking side, you recently hired a new Head of Private Banking and a Chief Investment Officer. How are some of those hirings shaping and driving the private bank strategy?
Richard Raffetto
ExecutivesGreat. Great question, Jared. The momentum that we expect to have in our Private Banking and Wealth business is going to help us be that 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 balanced business mix with the final 1/3 certainly being consumer and private banking and wealth. And some of our new hires, including Mark Pittsey, who we announced in March would come over and lead that business. He had led the private banking and wealth franchise in North America for HSBC and was a senior person business at Wells Fargo previously. With that comes momentum. And we think momentum is really important, and we followed that with a new Chief Investment Officer. We'll have some additional new hires to announce here shortly. We're adding professionals in the wealth planning arena as well as in insurance to really round out the private banking and wealth offering. We're also going to -- we have been ramping up our private banking lending. Our organization has a historic competency in the mortgage business, and we are increasing our activities, and we launched an interest-only mortgage product, again, to fill in the market gap left by First Republic and others, where we see a real opportunity to broaden and deepen existing relationships where we may only have been on the business side to add the personal side to those relationships as well. So we're quite bullish on the build-out of our private banking and wealth enterprise under Mark's leadership.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. We have a few questions for the audience. If you can use your BlackBerry-looking device there to give us your opinion, we'd appreciate it. First question, what's your current position in Flagstar shares? One, overweight or long; two, market weight or equal weight; three, underweight or short; or 4 not involved? So it looks like there's a room of opportunity here, 36%, not involved right now and almost another 1/3 that are more equal weight. Hopefully, you're able to transfer some of these into new shareholders. All right. Second question now, which would have the largest impact on improving the relative valuation of shares of Flagstar? One, better relative margin performance; two, above peer loan growth; three, better expense control; four, credit quality outperformance; five, more active share repurchases; or six accretive bank acquisition. These are what we ask everybody. So we'll see how this comes out. So 2/3 credit quality outperformance. In seems like you're continuing to make progress on that.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesAnd I think that's a very important point. I mean what we hear from other investors is us achieving fourth quarter profitability, which we're on track to do, and then a continued improvement in the credit the financial institution out of the 2 variables. So I think people in the short run are looking for improvement.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. Our third question. What will organic loan growth be at Flagstar next year in 2026? One, 3% to 5%; two, 5% to 7%; three, 7% to 9% and four, greater than 9%?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesHow come Lee and Rich and I didn't get...
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsYes. There will be a super one -- so I'll move up, starting to see some of that traction and expectations, 43%, 5% to 7% and another 1/3 at 3% to 5% growth. All right. Overall margin in 2026 versus the 1.81% in 2Q and the current guidance for 2.40% to 2.60% for the full year '26. So 3.20% or lower -- I'm sorry, 2.30% or lower; two, 2.30% to 2.50%; three, 2.50% 50 to 2.70% or four 2.70% or higher. And Lee, feel free to jump in on this, too.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesI think he want to comment. I mean the one thing that we're confident is there are lots of levers.
Lee Smith
ExecutivesThere are a lot of levers. And I think we'll get into that. On the next question, we'll talk about those levers.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsAll right. So 2.30% and 2.50% and our fifth -- how should excess capital be deployed increase the dividend, share buybacks or reinvest in the business?
Richard Raffetto
ExecutivesI know where I would vote.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsReinvest in the business.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesI think I'm closer to that beer now.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. Lee, following up on the margin and NII. The near-term target for NII and margin was reduced, but your longer-term goals remained unchanged. Can you just sort of walk through the drivers of that for us? And how do you think Flagstar is positioned for the likely rate cuts that are going to be coming the rest of this year?
Lee Smith
ExecutivesYes. First of all, good afternoon, Jared. Thanks for having us. Good to see you and everybody else. So the main driver of the reduction in net interest income was really we saw heightened payoffs of the CRE book, particularly family loans in Q2. So we were estimating that we would be between $800 million, $900 million a quarter, and there was $1.5 billion of par payoffs. Now what I would tell you is 45% $680 million of those par payoffs were substandard loans. And we're okay with that because that just accelerates the derisking of the balance sheet, and it accelerates us getting to that more diversified of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. It did have a short-term impact on the interest income in '25. And so we reduced our guidance, but we were able to offset a lot of that because we've outperformed on our cost reductions. We had talked about taking $600 million of noninterest expense out of this organization year-over-year. We're going to be closer to $750 million. And so when we look in '26, that smaller balance sheet rolls into '26. And so we adjusted the net interest income down in '26. We were able to offset entire reduction with those cost reductions that I just mentioned. As we think about a lot of the levers that we have to increase improve our NIM and net interest income, I think we're in a very unique position. We have between '25, '26 and '27 $20 billion of multifamily loans with a weighted average coupon of less than 3.8% that are either maturing or resetting. And if they reset and stay with Flagstar, then they reprice into a new note, which is 5-year follow-up plus 300 basis points or prime plus 275. So they're going for -- if they stay with Flagstar, they're going from less than 3.8% to at least 7.5%. And obviously, if they pay off, then we will use that cash to invest in growing Richie's businesses or paying down high-cost broker deposits. We're also -- as we think about asset generation, Rich has talked about the great growth that we've seen from the bankers that he and Joseph have brought to Flagstar. We think in this declining rate environment, you're going to see us add a lot more residential 1 to 4 mortgages. And our mortgage strategy is very much geared to high net worth comes who we can put their mortgages on balance sheet, leverage those lines to bring in deposits, wealth business or other opportunities. And we are going to turn CRE lending back on in Q4. So as we think about high-quality CRE loans in other parts of our footprint, Michigan, California, South Florida, we will look to originate those higher-quality CRE loans as well. So we've got a lot of different ways that we can originate and grow assets organically. I think as you know, Jared, we've done a nice job of reducing the cost of our core deposits despite being no Fed reductions in the first half of this year. So as retail CDs have matured, we've been able to retain 85% of those and put them into new CDs at much lower rates. We've been tactical with some of our -- with what we're paying on some of our savings deposits and interest-bearing DDAs. And then we've used excess cash to pay down broker deposits and FHLB advances, which are high cost as well. So again, that's just another lever on the liability side to continue to manage the NIM. If the Fed does reduce rates, our expectation is our deposit beta on interest-bearing deposits will be in the 55% to 60% range. And then another piece of the equation as we grow that C&I business, Rich touched on this, we believe we can leverage those relationships, not just for deposits, but for fee income. So being lead left is one example, treasury management, swap fees, FX fees. So we're sort of seeing growth in that fee income and noninterest income part of the P&L. I think we've proven that we can sort of manage the cost. We're very myopic about that. And we have over $3 billion of nonaccrual loans. And those nonaccrual loans are -- I look at it as locked up capital and locked up earnings. And as we can sort of reduce those, they're 150% risk weighted. So we'll get a pickup on the capital, but then we're going to take them from being nonaccrual and move them back into interest-earning assets.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsWhen you look at the trends in CRE paydown, you mentioned second quarter, significantly higher level than expected with great representation and that's up standard. What's the pace -- so is that pace continuing as we move through the summer? And what's the expectation for sort of the appetite for other lenders to take these loans out? Is that continuing unabated?
Lee Smith
ExecutivesYes, we're absolutely seeing that continue. So we think Q3 will look very similar to Q2, where we're close to $1.5 billion of par payoffs. We think 45% to 50% will be substandard. And typically, we're seeing 20%, 25% that are refinancing are going to the agencies, Fannie, Freddie, with the remainder going to other financial institutions. So there's a lot of appetite out there for this asset class. And obviously, that's good for us because in terms of our strategy and just lightening up on that asset class in order to get to that diversified balance sheet that Joseph mentioned, it just accelerates our journey.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsWhen we look at the $3 billion of nonaccrual loans, is there an appetite at all for sale or for doing something maybe to unlock some of that capital in the near term? Or is it -- do you feel that it's just going to be naturally moving off of balance sheet?
Lee Smith
ExecutivesYes. Yes. We have -- it's a multi sort of option strategy. So we're looking at DPOs. We're looking at workouts. We're looking at sales. Every loan is different. So you have to kind of deal with each one sort of separately. They all have their nuances. I mean, Joseph and I, we talk about it being a game of inches. And we're obviously going to choose the option that provides the best economic out for the bank. And I think we've proven we've been successful at doing that with some of the sales that we executed on in Q4 and Q1. But there's a lot of different strategies we can deploy to bring those nonaccruals down. I do think, again, in a decreasing rate environment, that's only going to help us or accelerate us being able to do that because it will bring those nonaccrual loans into the money.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsIn the last slide deck, you gave some really great data on the multifamily portfolio in New York and the evaluation that you've done on those properties. From the conversations you've had with those property owners, how are they thinking about supporting those properties today as those are coming due? Are you seeing them be able to come with additional equity? How are they performing in this environment [with affordable] backdrop in New York.
Lee Smith
ExecutivesYes. I think at this point, we've been sort of very rigid when loans hit their reset date. You have 2 options with Flagstar. You have the 5-year FHLB plus 300 or the prime plus 275. And we've not wavered off that because our strategy has been to rightsize that portfolio. But I think you've seen just given the amount of par payoff, there's plenty of appetite out there, and 50% of our par payoffs have been substandard. And so it's an asset class where there is a lot of demand out there and the borrowers obviously are looking for the best deals that they can find and they're able to find them. I think the other thing with a lot of the multifamily borrowers that we have, they're typically families and these properties have been in the families for generations. And so they've benefited from the 1031 tax rollover. So they have very low tax basis. So yes, generally, we're absolutely seeing the borrowers stand behind these properties.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. And I think illustrative of that is roughly low 40% our nonaccrual portfolio continues to pay as agreed. So it's reflective that they want to keep these assets. They're using external resources from the properties, cash flow or liquidity to maintain updated status.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsIn this fall, there's an election coming up here in New York. Joseph, I would love to hear your thoughts on that and what potential Mamdani administration could do to sort of the strategy and the pace of that transformation?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. I think Mamdani has ran an unbelievable campaign, and there hasn't been dilution after the primaries. It's actually somewhat accelerated. So I think we all have to live with the reality as he could become mayor of the City of New York. More specific to us is his viewpoints on the rent-regulated properties saying that he would freeze rents in the rent regulated. Our observation in that portfolio is in 2023, when we really -- or excuse me, 2024, when we really went through portfolio, we had a number of downgrades in that portfolio from, first of all, starting with a fixed charge coverage and then what the loan to values look like. This year, based upon the 2024 data, we're not really seeing movement and deterioration in credit quality. And I think what's happened in that business is you kind of hedge your revenue hedged, but you had your expenses unhedged, like the exact of what you'd want to look like. And as we went through that inflationary period, insurance rose, HVAC systems were up, you know what I mean, a lot of things drove cost up. But we don't see the deterioration on last year occurring in the portfolio that which we've been through. And I think we have another 12 months at 3% increases. So the big challenge, I think, in that space is really interest rates. And if we can see interest rates pull back, as Lee commented, I think a number of those properties will continue to be fine. But if we go through a multiyear of those rates being fixed, I think it could be problematic in the future.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsLet's see if there's any questions in the audience. Happy open it up.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsImpact on collateral values?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. So we actually suspended any of that activity when we arrived in April of last year. So we have not done any regulated new properties. We have done some restructurings for customers where we have full relationships with. But we have been basically out of that business out for 15 months.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo presumably, it's in runoff if there were adverse consequences from rent regulation.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. In our quarterly deck last quarter, if you haven't seen it, Page 19, really gives a detailed breakdown of our rent regulated, and it bifurcates it based upon the percentage of rent regulated. And then in that bifurcation, it gives loan-to-value, lease cash flow coverage with the lease percentages are. And then in that portfolio, we give a breakdown of the asset quality within each of those categories. It's worth a look. I think initially, there were some numbers that were very high in our exposure in the 50% or more. It turns out it was about $9.9 billion. It's down since that period of time. But we do see that running down over the next 24 months, probably another 15% to 20%. Do you have another question.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsA few questions on the multifamily portfolio. Number one, you say that a lot of your loans have very low loan to value. Do you have a feel for what their cost basis is on their properties so that they actually handed you the keys, they would have a big tax bill?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. We don't have it by specific property. Obviously, that would be confidential information that the borrower has. And we didn't seek that out as we kind of went through that process. But you can imply by amount of properties that if you were just singularly looking at the property, you would question it either has to be a nostalgic or their basis as to why they continue to make the payments when the properties do not sufficiently cover the cash flow.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsTwo follow-up. What do you expect to be having to the portfolio as the big bulge of refi over the next 2 years that go from a 3.5% coupon, to a 7% coupon. I mean, I can kind of do the math, that's a significant increase in interest expense for those property holders. What do you expect to happen there?
Lee Smith
ExecutivesLike we said, we saw $1.5 billion of par payoffs just in the second quarter. We're seeing a similar trend in Q3. So I think a lower rate environment will accelerate the par payoffs of those loans, and that fits into our strategy of reducing our exposure to that asset class in order that we can get to a more diversified balance sheet of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. So I think you'll just -- you'll continue to see those heightened par payoffs.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesAnd I think one comment, Lee made a comment that 45% of those $1.5 billion payoffs were in substandard credits. And as we all know, substandard is the client has the flu. It's not just a little cold. There's real cash flow-related issues. But the other thing is 20% to 22% of those payoffs are in the regulated portfolio. So sizable ability to continue to decrease those dollar amounts.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. Can I just ask on cost of deposits in Q3, except for -- excluding the September cut, would you expect a big catch-up benefit based on the CD repricing as well as the actions you've taken to strengthen the deposit base? Or do you expect it to be closer to flattish versus the second quarter, excluding the September cut?
Lee Smith
ExecutivesThe cost of...
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsThe cost of deposits.
Lee Smith
ExecutivesYou're going to see our cost of deposits come down in Q3. And just one of the levers I mentioned, we've got $5.5 billion of retail CDs that are maturing in the third quarter at a weighted average cost of 4.5%. So we're going to naturally -- we've been retaining 85% of retail CDs that have been maturing, and we're able to reprice them at a lower rate. And so you've got that dynamic playing with some of the excess cash that we've got from the par payoffs. We've paid down some additional brokered deposits, which are high cost. And then we've been very tactical, as I say, with some of our other interest-bearing deposits. So you will see us continue to reduce the cost of deposits even without the Fed cuts. And then the Fed cuts, they happen, we target a 55% to 60% beta.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesYes. And I think one of the things, like when we got here, it was about $12 billion of brokered deposits. We're down -- we've paid down $5.5 billion this year alone. And those are the highest cost because those are what the market was pricing those at the time they were issued.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsMaybe the last question.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsWhen is the time for potential M&A? Like at what point would you be ready?
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesWell, the way we look at that is we have so many opportunities the company. Our market share in C&I lending across the United States was 1% when we started this journey. And our focus on driving up the quality of our service with our customers, lowering our deposit costs are all things that we have in-house, the company that we can do. And based upon our 2027 numbers, we think we get back very close to the market valuation is. And let's just say that's $13 today, 2026 book value is $18. And then we get 1.4 to 1.6x, you get a really quick valuation on the stock just by executing on our internal plan. But I think we're also highly focused on building out the risk governance structure Category IV bank. And we think that all positions us very uniquely to be able to be strategically advantaged with that risk governance structure to be able to take advantage of opportunities as they're presented to us. A lot of people are out the bay of the Category IV, not knowing quite what to do. And if we're already there, I think that is very advantageous for us. We'll all celebrate together.
Jared David Shaw
AnalystsGreat. Well, that's our time. Thank you very much to the Flagstar team and thanks, everyone, for joining us.
Joseph Otting
ExecutivesThank you.
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