Flowserve Corporation (FLS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 17, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGood morning, and welcome to day 3 of the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference. I'm Joshua Pokrzywinski firm's electrical equipment and multi-industry analyst. Joining me for the next fireside chat is Flowserve and CEO, Scott Rowe. Scott, appreciate the time this morning. Before we jump into it, I do have a quick disclaimer to read. Please note that this webcast is for Morgan Stanley's clients and appropriate Morgan Stanley employees only. This webcast is not for members of the press. If you are a member of the press, please disconnect and reach out separately. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. With that, Scott, thanks for joining this morning. I appreciate the time as always, wish we were doing it in Laguna, but we'll take it all the same.
Robert Rowe
executiveGreat. Thank you, Josh. We're happy to be here. And just -- we do have Jay Roueche with us as well. He's our VP and Treasurer. And so anything on the balance sheet side, we'll happy to punt to him, but we're very happy to visit with you today.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystExcellent. So Scott, if you don't mind, maybe just give us some opening comments on what you're seeing out there in the world, then we'll dive into it?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. I'll just start. Obviously, 2020 has been an interesting year for everybody. We're working through the COVID issues. We have a very global footprint. And so as the virus has kind of spread around the world and there's different hotspots, so -- then we get impacted differently. I'm incredibly proud of our team in terms of how we've handled this and how we're keeping our associates safe and keeping our operations up and moving forward. Today, I really have kind of out of our whole footprint, there's 2 areas of concern. It's down in India and then in Latin America, mostly kind of Argentina, Brazil-ish areas. Other than that, we are 100% open for business and doing good things to support customers. In addition to work from home and all of the other things that are going on, I'm incredibly proud of our associates for continuing to drive our Flowserve 2.0 transformation. And so even -- since March, we've made great progress on some of our ERP consolidations, we've made progress on some of the big things around our cost initiatives within the transformation and then we're continuing to invest in technology and things for the future of Flowserve. And so I just -- I can't understate the just -- my level of pride with our associates and just pleased with the progress that we've made despite all of the issues in 2020. And then just on the marketplace, and we can get into more details on this, Josh. Obviously, March and April took a lot of people back in terms of what -- how their companies were operating and whether or not they were going to spend money or not spend money. And I'd just say today, I feel a lot better than even a month or 2 ago on our Q2 earnings call that the world is starting to return to normal. And where we see things moving forward, such as Asia, we're starting to see customers really spending, move project forward and things like that. And so I do have confidence over the long run that our markets get back to something of a more normal state. And I think Q2 has clearly impacted everybody. And as folks have returned to work, kind of figured out their longer-term plans, I think we start to get progressively better each and every quarter.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. That's helpful. I appreciate that, Scott. I guess just kind of following up on that comment that you are seeing some customers kind of get back to work and project being led. I think as much as 2Q is kind of challenging for everyone. The order intake for Flowserve certainly was a bit more challenged as customers held back. Are you seeing some of those order deferrals starting to hit the book again? And how would you characterize visibility over the next 12 to 18 months relative to where you would normally be in September?
Robert Rowe
executiveSure. Let me just -- I'll just remind people of what we said in our earnings call. And so in Q2, we -- well, first, we delivered about $800 million of bookings. And to your point, it was down pretty substantially versus the year prior, which was one of our peak booking quarters last year at $1.1 billion. And when you segment that out, our valve business was down about 20%, our aftermarket and seal business were down about 10%, which both feel about right in the environment that we're facing. Our original equipment pump bookings were down 50%, and that's where we really struggled and a lot of that is project, some of it's expansion, some of it's replacement, but most of it's project business, and we just saw really a complete clamp down. And then I'll just say, we didn't win the amount of work that we had been accustomed to winning. And so we had done pretty well over the last kind of 4 or 5 quarters in terms of taking market share. Our win and hit rates were up at elevated levels and we didn't have that in Q2. And so I think as we go forward, we'll kind of normalize back to where we were on our market share and wins. And then I also think that we're going to start to see progressively more work getting released. And so what our guidance that we gave in Q2 as we said the back half of the year, Q3 and Q4 would be at least at the levels of our Q2 bookings. So I'm not saying recalling the bottom here, that's probably not the right way to look at it. But I do feel very confident that we're going to be at $800 million or above here in Q3 and Q4. And then in our customer interactions and discussion, similar to my opening remarks, what we are seeing is a lot of customers are -- they're back at work, they're talking about their projects. They're talking about the work that they need to do, to drive their operations and the productivity levels there. And I just -- I'm starting to see things really feel a lot more normal than what we saw in the past on projects. Now I don't think when they let those awards, when they get into the EPC funnel. I think that's still somewhat of a question mark, and some of it depends on COVID. But we're having a lot more discussions and engagements around the projects that they want to pursue. And then on the aftermarket side, we've done reasonably well here. And I'm not going to say we're taking market share or not taking market share, but we're certainly holding our own. And we're helping customers in a lot of different ways as they're kind of working through their operations and making sure that they can stay up and running. What we're not seeing, though, is the turnarounds. And so as you know and others know, right, those turnarounds require a lot of planning and coordination, and they require a lot of people to be on-site at one time. And so anywhere that there's a COVID impact or a risk of virus spreading, then that turnaround is being delayed. And so we're seeing a real light season right now. A lot of our customers are talking about deferring that into 2021. And so I think there's going to be some pent-up demand there. And it's really just going to be kind of virus dependent on when that starts to come back around. But I think we can keep our aftermarket business about where we are. And then as things abate on COVID and people start to get more comfortable on how to bring folks together, then we could see a nice uptick in our aftermarket business at that time.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And I guess a couple of things you touched on there, kind of point to something like a snowplow, deferred maintenance that might take into '21, some of the order activity, which maybe it's longer cycle and isn't for delivery for longer, but you're not getting let now, maybe getting at a little bit later. Is that something that could provide a bit more of a tailwind maybe over the next 12 months relative to where you've been i.e., you've kind of snowplowed activity out of 2Q, 3Q, 4Q and maybe push some of it into next year?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. No, I think that's a good way to think about it. And certainly, in all of our dialogue and discussions, that's kind of how -- or what we're seeing right now. And just to provide more color, the work that we're getting on aftermarket is critical replacements, critical upgrades. There are things that they just -- they're desperate and they're very much necessary to keep their operations up. We're not getting that kind of general maintenance spend or -- when our guys are on-site and doing work there, and there's some extra stuff that needed to happen, that discretionary or anything like that is just not happening. And over time, they've got a -- there'll be some catch-up to get there. When I think this is a little bit different than what we saw in kind of '14 and '15, where I do think operators started to figure out how to live with a lower maintenance-type spending. And in my discussions with very senior folks and our customers, they just said, we feel like we know where the bottom is. And we feel like we're below that now, and we'll certainly need to do some catch-up spending to get back to levels that can drive the right productivity for them.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then I guess just the other side of the same equation, backlog. Obviously, your customers have had some time to kind of ponder their plans, especially in some of these bigger projects and maybe everyone's decision-making power wasn't fantastic in March and April. How firm would you describe the backlog as being now? Have you seen anything fall out in terms of cancellations as folks have kind of gotten back to work?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes, nothing's really changed since our Q2 remarks. And in Q2, we talked about a number around $15 million of backlog cancellation. We really haven't seen anything material beyond that. And so I feel really good about what is in the backlog in terms of -- at this point, I'd be shocked if things -- we always have a level of cancellations, but it's reasonably small, but I don't think we're going to see anything abnormal from this point forward. In the early days, there were a lot of discussions around cancellation clauses and what does that look like? And that -- and those discussions really have subsided and like I said, in Q2, it was about $15 million. And so I feel good about the health of our backlog. And right now is -- our focus is deliver the backlog as effectively and as efficiently as possible, and that's what our team is geared up to do right now.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then I guess maybe more in the short-term on backlog, although it's more like activity that you're making up. I know there were some pretty good-sized deferrals that came out of the first quarter and created kind of this rolling effect into 2Q. When is your expectation that you're able to kind of make up some of that lost business?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. And so really, that was COVID impact for us and, right?
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystRight.
Robert Rowe
executiveAnd so we have a heavy footprint in Madrid, in Milan, where the virus hit and we were shut down for lots of days. Again, our operations are up and running. I'm concerned a little bit about India and Argentina, but today, everything is fully functioning. So we're making progress to catch up on the Q2 -- or the Q1 issues every day. And I'd say, I don't know the exact number of when we're out of it, but I'd just say it's really not -- it's not a major issue for us. We're converting and we feel good about our ability to deliver. And we've got 1 or 2 sites that are lagging on expectations. But I would say that's normal in any course right in the business. But feel really good about our ability to be caught up and making sure we have good lead times and good ability to serve our customers so we can win the future work.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then I guess 1 market that kind of rose in people's eye line here over the past couple of years is LNG. You guys had, I think, some good bookings there in 2019. Just given that the world has changed a little bit, how is that funnel of activity going? Have you seen customers kind of rework plans? Any change in that market, just given all that's going on?
Robert Rowe
executiveI think at the macro level, I don't think things have changed, right? I think when the world is returning to normal, the demand for natural gas is still high. And I think as more and more power is switching over to natural gas, it just becomes a more critical fuel for the future. So I think macro, no change. I just think with the COVID issues everything has gotten delayed and folks are kind of back to the drawing board on what those expansions and what those bigger projects look like. But I would fully expect that and again, it's really virus dependent, but I would expect projects to start to move in 2021. And so we are in discussions with people right now and they're talking positively and optimistic about the ability to progress the projects that were on the table before. And so I just -- I think this is kind of a COVID pause button and whether we're paused for 6 months or 12 months, I think is anybody's guess right now. But there's definitely going to be further movement in LNG. We've done a lot to our portfolio to make sure that we can really bring the power of our -- what we call the power of the pure-play into the LNG markets, and that just means you're providing pumps, valves and our seal offering in there. And we've been successful on a couple of big LNG projects, and we're very committed to winning more and getting all of our equipment there and then providing great service on the aftermarket and helping them with their uptime and maintenance.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then just switching over to Flowserve 2.0, kind of more broadly. You mentioned in some of your earlier comments about reducing the number of ERPs. I recall you're pretty early in the outlining of that plan. All these P&LS and ERPs that were scattered throughout the organization looked like hundreds of brands up on the chart. How has that process gone? If you want to use the baseball analogy for what inning you think we're in on that kind of rationalization? How would you characterize that?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. So I'll use the baseball analogy for the overall Flowserve transformation. And so we said we were -- at the beginning of this year, we're about halfway done. And I'd say we've made some more progress now. And so we're, I don't know, 55%, 60% through the transformation. And so we made really good -- this is part of my opening remarks. So I'm very pleased with the progress we've made even since March on lots of things. And so the ERP is one thing. And so our landscape on ERP is incredibly challenged. We've got over 40 different systems, and a lot of them are unsupported or cost us a ton of money to support. And what we were able to do this year and we started this in earnest last year is we created a standard template for the future in terms of what we want to do. A lot of that using the latest cloud technology in one of our big service providers. So I don't really want to name, but we're locking in on one provider. And well, what we found is while we don't need to blanket and do a wholesale 5-year ERP conversion process, what we can do is have 1 system that kind of sits in the cloud and we push things up to it. And when we start to migrate to a cluster of different ERP systems that can support that. And so what we've done this year is we validated our standard design, we've had our cloud setup up and operational. And then we've done one of our largest facilities. We did a whole scale conversion at the end of Q1 and Q2. And what we're seeing is that the benefits of doing that and getting rid of some of these legacy systems are what we expected and that we can drive further cost out and further productivity at that operating level. And so we're now about to kind of ramp up this program. We will start systematically eliminating things, drive to these kind of 3 clusters of systems. And ultimately, what we want is kind of an enterprise-led IT strategy and IT architecture and the design is in place now. We validated our first 3 pilots on different operating models, and I feel really good with: one, the progress that we've made; but two, the direction that we're heading here.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then I guess just taking a step back on Flowserve 2.0 and looking at some of the broader margin targets that you laid out a couple of years ago. How much of the path to those margins would you consider to be kind of cost takeout versus operating leverage? And I understand that since then, obviously, we've had to COVID, and you've also taken out a good amount of restructuring costs as of early 2Q. So putting all that in the mix, how do you see the path to some of those longer-term margin targets?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. I mean mostly those margin targets were around -- I think a lot of it was cost takeout. Some of it was pricing. We had our design to value, which is basically a redesigning, like legacy designs. We had manufacturing productivity in there with supply chain in there. And so most of it was around optimizing product costs, really thinking through the way we manufacture and lean out our facilities. There was pricing optimization and -- but I don't think we'd put a whole lot of leverage into those targets. And just as a reminder for folks, at the end of 2018, we launched kind of a 4-year program and said, here are our long-term aspirations and targets, which were pretty sporty. And they are certainly a lot higher than where we were in 2018. And we've made really good progress on that, right? And so now with COVID and some of the issues on the market coming down, I think it's going to be harder to achieve that. And our plan is at the end of this year, we'll kind of relook things, we'll take stock of where we're at, we'll look through the transformation opportunities and then decide what we do with that guidance. But I'll just say, Josh, today, I'm not ready to give up on those targets. I think our time line might not be what it was before, but I still think for this type of business, generating 100% of free cash flow is important. I think 15% ROIC is important. I think 15% OI is important. So all of those things that we put before are still very much in the grasp. And I, quite frankly, don't want to give up on those. And as we look through the transformation, things that we're still working on, there's a ton of opportunities out there still. And so I just think we've got to re -- take stock again and we'll come back with kind of our official position there. But I don't think we're going to -- we're not going to back off too much, and we're certainly still -- today, we're aspiring to achieve those type of levels.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. I think one of the paths we're getting there, you mentioned a few things on price and supply chain and the design to value. I think on the market side or the revenue side, there was an attachment rate or aftermarket capture opportunity that you talked about. And I think you listed out all the QRCs and where those were located. How has that progress been? Because the aftermarket is something, I think folks have a harder time tracking. You can't just look at turnaround schedules and certainly share ends up being a little easier to move around in the short term. Maybe just how has that strategy been deployed? How satisfied are you with how you've done so far? And what should we think about as kind of the next step from here?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. So the program you're referring to, we call it commercial intensity. And essentially, what it is, is just getting more of the market share of our installed base with the customers that we work with. So if you think of 1 QRC and so pick Gulf of Mexico, Corpus Christi, we've got QRC complex there that supports our pumps, valves and seals. And there are 7 different major installations. What we're trying to do is make sure that we've got that proper playbook to get more of our entitlement and capture more of the spin with the customers in that region. And so that playbook is now deployed globally, and it just starts with some of the basic things like market segmentation and touch time with our customers and tiered offerings and just it's -- basic is not the right word, but I would say it's a lot of blocking and tackling some of the things we were doing before and others, we weren't. But it's a playbook that we know can drive results and get more spend out of our customers. And so pre COVID, we were making really good progress on this and was very pleased, and I get regular status update around the world. And as I visit QRCs, we review kind of their commercial intensity rollout in how they're executing against the metrics in the scorecard. But I think the COVID has definitely taken some -- slowed the momentum of our progress there. And so I would expect as operators start to let us back into their sites and as we start to engage and interact again, then that's going to start to pick up. But this is a really important initiative for us. Aftermarket makes up about 50% of our business and the more -- it's obviously good margins as well. And so the more we can be involved in their operations, their uptime, helping with their maintenance, the better off we're going to be. And so this is going to remain an initiative as we go forward. It's a big part of 2020, and it will certainly be a big part of what we're doing next year.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. And then you mentioned the role that the pipe plays as part of the broader strategy. Obviously, nothing happens in a vacuum. Given some of the gyrations in the market, have you seen pricing discipline among some of the other market competitors get a little bit more lax? I know for you guys, you've been more -- a lot more laser-focused in the past couple of years, but any changes that you would point to outside of kind of your own 4 walls?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. So I think we've done a really good job over the last couple of years on pricing. We -- I'm not going to say we've been the market leader, but we've certainly been aggressive on walking it up. And quite frankly, we needed it to do it. With COVID in the market turning down, it's difficult out there right now. And so I'm not saying anyone's undisciplined or doing things that they shouldn't be doing, but it's competitive. And so I'd say, certainly on the OE pump side, where the bookings and the activity level has dropped significantly, that's where we're seeing the most pressure. And so for us, it's making sure that we're making good decisions that support the gross margin of the product, but also looking at the absorption of our manufacturing facilities as well. And so we're sharpening our pencils on there. And then two is just really making sure that we're driving the cost out of the product as best we can. And so on the supply chain side, we are seeing some favorability there on our materials in some of the components that we buy. And so it's getting the best deals on our goods that go into making our products and services. But then we've got -- we've just got to make sure on the bigger picture on manufacturing that we're as productive and as efficient as possible. And if we can do that, then we can make money even at today's pricing. But I would suspect also, I'd just say, Q2 is crazy, right? I mean so if we had COVID hit, you had markets implode, everyone's working from home and there's just a lot of things going on. And I would say, I think things are more stable -- I know things are significantly more stable today. I'm not going to say we're seeing better pricing on OE pumps, but I don't think we're going to see the trends that we certainly got into in Q2. So I think we get better on pricing on OE pumps as we go forward. Now what I would say is on valves and on our aftermarket business and our seal business, while we are seeing some pricing pressures and dynamics in the marketplace, it really hasn't been too concerning at this point.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. Got it. That's helpful. And then just shifting to something as maybe a bit more of a longer-term dynamic. The topic of near shoring, I think, with some supply chain interruptions that have happened as a result of COVID and certainly a couple of years now with tariffs that you're seeing more of that being discussed, I think, in some cases, moves starting to happen. But I think a lot of people associate that more with kind of discrete good production and maybe less with the process world. Is there anything in kind of chemicals or pharma or any of the other end markets you touch where the supply chain could move a little bit closer to the regions where those products are consumed? And do you think there's an opportunity for Flowserve within that? Obviously, you guys are a pretty global business and manufacturer everywhere as it is, but it's more of what your customers would be buying?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. So I'll just start with the Flowserve position, I'll answer with regard to that. We are incredibly global, and we've got a regional footprint. And it's how we manage our operations. And so 60% of our manufacturing and our head count is outside of North America. So it gives us a pretty good position to support whatever that -- however the trends in those local market buying decisions go. And so I feel really good about -- we can serve China for China. We've got India in India. We've got probably more in Europe than we need, but we've got Europe into Europe and exporting around the world. And then we certainly have operations in North and South America. So I think we're going to be incredibly well positioned for whatever happens on -- one on geopolitical landscape and then two on whether or not customers make more local buying decisions. What I would say, though, in our industry is there's been a lot of that already. And certainly, on the aftermarket and the service side, the facilities that we support like a refinery or a specialty chemical plant, they want that support very local. And so the QRC network, it's really important to be in close proximity and speed is everything, right? You've got to provide a high level of service on the quotations and the turnaround and getting our service techs out to their sites. So I think we're well positioned. I think there could be a little bit of a change where folks are looking to buy more local, but I don't think -- I don't see anything dramatically different from a year ago. And local content and local support has always been a big part about the process industries for us supplying equipment to them. But again, we're well positioned for regardless of what happened. And what we're continuing to do is make sure that we've got the talent and the capabilities in all of these regions to continue to support those operations.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystGot it. That's helpful. And then one of the big initiatives out of Flowserve 2.0 that I think people were able to see early on was the improved cash generation. And I know that's still a target you want to maintain and deliver against over time. So as you've never really done, but the cash generation has improved the balance sheet in pretty decent shape. At what point, Scott, do you start to think about external deployment and maybe you return to M&A. I know you're kind of decluttering the portfolio and getting some of these ERPs consolidated. It doesn't exactly sound appealing to then add more complexity from a new asset. But you're either thinking about end market diversity or gaps in the portfolio you'd want to fill. Is there something that you want to see first before that moves up the priority list?
Robert Rowe
executiveYes. Sure. And so I mean, you said it exactly, Josh, right. So one was we had to get our cash flow, cash generation and balance sheet where we need it. We've made good progress on that. We're not quite where we need to be, and there's still tremendous opportunity on our working capital efficiency, which we're very focused on. So I'm pleased with the progress we've made, but I think there's equal opportunity is the amount of progress we've made in my 3 years here. And so we're still very focused on that. Then the other thing on the M&A front is, if you are going to go out and buy something, I'm a big believer in conducting proper integrations, doing it quickly, having a deliberate plan and getting that business into your operating model as soon as possible. And part of Flowserve 2.0 is to create that operating model. And so for me, in the first couple of years trying to do a deal and thinking about how to successfully integrate it was just, quite frankly, it just wasn't going to happen. But I feel really good about the progress that we've made. Again, we've now got that ERP standard template. And we've got playbooks now for operations and commercial and basically have defined the way that we want to run our company. And so I feel reasonably good about our ability to integrate a deal today. And that is probably the single biggest inhibitor for us to do anything inorganically. Now with that said, what we can't do is go out and stress our balance sheet, we don't want to do that. And we certainly can't go out and do something that's going to be incredibly complex where you're picking up an asset that's got operations in multiple countries and 4 or more ERP systems. So that's not going to work either. But I think there are opportunities out there that would fill each technologies for us or expand into markets that were not necessarily as concentrated as we want to or potentially a geographic fit that helps us support our customers even more. And so I would say we're actively looking. I would say we're not out there making tons of calls about we've got to do a deal this year. But for the right thing, then we start to get excited about it. And then obviously, it's got to create value for our shareholders, and we're incredibly focused on that. And so if all of those things check out, I think you could see us start to do some smaller things around the M&A front that really help position folks for long-term success and value creation.
Joshua Pokrzywinski
analystExcellent. Well, I appreciate that color, Scott. And I see we're at time, so we'll leave it here. Scott, Jay, thanks to both of you for spending the time here today. I hope everyone is safe and well, and we'll do this all again next year, but hopefully, with a bit more sun and sand.
Robert Rowe
executiveWe hope so, Josh. Thank you for having us today.
John Roueche
executiveThanks, Josh. You do well.
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