Gerresheimer AG (GXI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. Our CEO, Dietmar Siemssen, will run you through the recent developments having led to the necessity to amend our 2025 guidance. Both our CEO and our CFO, Dr. Bernd Metzner, will then be available for questions. Dietmar?

Yes. Thank you, and welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining us for this call on pretty short notice. Unfortunately, this is a call outside of our regular reporting routine. You have seen our ad hoc announcement and the corporate news we issued today. We needed to revise our guidance for our financial year 2025. We know that this raises a number of questions from your side, which is why we decided to give you more background on this call and the opportunity to also raise questions. Why was this adjustment necessary? Although we recorded a significant jump in sales and earnings in the first quarter of 2025 due to the first-time consolidation of Bormioli Pharma, sales and earnings declined organically compared with the pro forma results of the same period of the previous year. This was due to subdued demand in the cosmetic market and the deferment of revenues in the syringe business from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2025. In the course of the second quarter, we were able to realize the deferred revenues from the syringe business. Our Plastics & Device division delivered a robust growth we had expected and the order book developed positively, supporting a stronger second half of the year. However, subdued demand in the cosmetic market prevailed and affected, in particular, our molded glass business. This was compounded by a significant decline in demand for containment solutions for oral liquid medications affecting our results in both primary packaging plastic as well as molded glass. Overall, we will return to organic growth in the second quarter as announced, but at a slower pace than previously expected. The lower fixed cost absorption weighs on our margins. Based on preliminary figures, we expect a low single-digit organic growth revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 19% in the second quarter of 2025. After careful analysis of the figures, we have, therefore, come to the conclusion that we need to adjust our growth expectations for the 2025 financial year. For the 2025 financial year, we now expect organic revenues growth of 1% to 2% compared to the previous year and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 20%. The adjusted earnings per share will decline in the low double-digit percentage range compared to previous year. We will provide you with a full update on the Q2 and H1 results for 2025, as well as also the midterm guidance on July 10, 2025, as scheduled. We continue to expect a significant stronger second half of the year, but this will not be able to fully compensate for the weak growth momentum in the first half of the year. We will continue to grow profitable in 2025 as a whole, but less dynamically than previously anticipated. The return to normal operations in Morganton following the repair of the flood damage and in Lohr, following the replacement of the furnace, will contribute to our growth in the second half of 2025. The biggest growth drivers in the second half, though, will be the ramp-up of new lines from the successful implementation of our growth projects, system solutions for biologics and the expanded portfolio of high-value solutions. This will also improve our margin again in the second half of 2025. The integration of Bormioli Pharma is progressing, and we are realizing the planned synergies. Our strategy review of whether end -- if so, when a spin-off of the molded glass business might make sense is ongoing. We expect results in the second half of the year. In light of the adjusted guidance, we have decided to put a new dividend proposal to the vote at the Annual General Meeting on Thursday. The new proposal limits the dividend to be paid out for the 2024 financial year to a minimum of 4% of the share capital. Instead of EUR 1.25, we are proposing EUR 0.04 per share. In the current situation, we believe this is the right measure to maintain the company's financial flexibility. Our capital structure is robust. We have just extended the bridge financing of the purchase price by a further 12 months. Our growth strategy remains valid and our long-term positive outlook remains intact. Our transformation into a system solution provider has made us a key partner for the global pharma and biotech industry. This positioning is the key to sustainable profitable growth. We are growing strongly in the area of systems and solutions for large molecule biologics, including GLP-1. We have a broad portfolio of high-value solutions that improve our profitability. With the acquisition of Bormioli Pharma, we have expanded our product portfolio and created the base for new integrated high-value solutions. Gerresheimer is a strong, resilient company that is able to size market opportunities and consequently pursue its growth course, even when the going gets tough. Thank you. We will now be happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] And the next question comes from the line of Oliver Reinberg from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Three, if I may. Firstly, I just want to unpack a bit the kind of growth outlook. Can you just provide some kind of more color on the assumptions that you have now applied? In particular, I guess, GLP-1 expectation sounds to be unchanged, which probably 4% growth alone. So can you just talk about what do you expect for P&D and PPG in terms of growth expectation for the full year? And any color on the magnitude of the cosmetics decline, just to try to get a better feeling for the underlying drivers here? And probably can you also provide a bit of color on the visibility that you have for the business at the moment? The second question would be on the drop-through. I guess if I take the old and the new midpoint of your guidance, it assumes that the top line and EBITDA guidance has been cut by EUR 60 million. So can you just talk about why there's such a significant drop-through? And then thirdly, if I may, just you confirm that the outcome of the strategic review is still expected in the second half. Why are we not going to see any kind of delay given the softness in cosmetics, please?

Thank you, Oliver, for your question. Just to talk about briefly about the drop-through rate, and I'm sure Dietmar will tackle the growth outlook for this year. The drop-through rate is basically coming, especially you basically calculate on your own, maybe we are losing EUR 50 million, EUR 60 million revenues. And indeed, we lost almost EUR 45 million. If you really decompose the whole thing, we have higher drop-through rates because a lot is affected by molded glass, where we have this kind of drop in revenues. So basically, you can assume a contribution margin of around 50%. It's fair. Then we had also idle costs in the -- in our setup, given that we had this kind of shortfalls for revenues, and also lower fixed cost absorption. That's basically the key reason for the, let's say, practically higher drop-through rate based on the drop-through rate plus idle cost and our fixed cost absorption. We didn't get your third question acoustically, Oliver.

Yes. So the third question was just like on the strategic review for the molded glass powerhouse. I just -- my understanding from your prepared remarks was that the outcome is still expected in the second half. I was just wondering if there's not any kind of delay, if there's now kind of more pronounced softness in cosmetics, please?

I think this is pretty independent. We are -- as you know, we are integrating the Bormioli. We did the closing in December. We're now integrating the business and simultaneously to the integration of the business, we are working on what we call setup of this powerhouse molded glass as a stand-alone solution, and these things are independent. So we are confident that over the summer, into the fall, we will be ready with what we call the strategic review and have a clear result and conclusion to this.

Maybe just to tackle your first question regarding the growth outlook, Oliver, we don't talk about the specific divisions, and we don't give guidance for that. So allow me that for all divisions in the second half of the year segments, we see really a very solid growth. And also, we expect that PPG actually comes back to a growth mode for the second half of this year.

Yes, we expect the cosmetic market to still be soft in the second half of the year, but the other criteria that will help, we should not forget that the furnace repair in Lohr is completed and is now delivering since June, the volume again, which is very positive. We have, on top of this independent from the glass side, also new launches that were planned for the second half from the very beginning, and they will now add and contribute to the sales growth in the second half. So there's no doubt the second half, as always explained, will be significantly stronger than the first half, but the first half was clearly weaker than expected, and the second half will not be able to compensate for the delay or softness of the markets in the first half of the year.

Perfect. And can you just confirm that the outlook for GLP-1 sales is unchanged for the full year, please?

That's correct.

Next question comes from the line of Oliver Metzger from ODDO BHF.

The first one, can you make a comment for the Moulded Glass segment as a whole, how it has performed in Q2? Second, it's pretty early and right now, we are just talking about the first day of Q3, but it would be great to hear your expectations for Q3, how you expect the phasing? And the last one has more a strategy corrector but can you confirm that you don't have potential covenants as the declining EBITDA leads to higher leverage ratios? That's from my side.

Yes, I can start with the Moulded question. No doubt, Q2 as Q1 was pretty soft in Moulded glass. There were key drivers for this. Some was clearly mentioned that's the cosmetic market. We, on top of this suffer also in Moulded Glass, of this what we call the oral liquids, what are these oral liquids, that's classic coughing syrups that at the moment are softer in the market. On top of this, of course, that is not unplanned was that the Lohr furnace, the largest furnace of Lohr, was completely down in the first 6 months of the year due to rebuilding and it's now restarted and it's in glass again, as we call it, since weeks, and it's now delivering the first ramp-ups and contribution into the second half of the year, but not in the second quarter. Second one was, I think, order intake or what.

No, that was the Q3. I think how is the -- I think the question was how you see Q3 and what are the expectations here?

Yes.

Q3 will be stronger than Q2, which is not difficult. We see positive indications coming from the order intake, plus the fact that we have launches of new lines that were planned like this in the second half of the year that are going up. So Q3 will be steadily stronger again. Maybe just to Oliver to the covenant.

The covenant, I tackle this. Basically, thanks a lot, Oliver, for this question. Yes, there are basically 2 elements to this question. First, liquidity; second, leverage and covenant. Regarding liquidity, I think it's important to mention that we have unused credit lines in the amount of around EUR 550 million to EUR 600 million for the end of Q2. And therefore, we have sufficient liquidity buffer. And before, Dietmar mentioned that we were able to extend our Bormioli acquisition bridge to September 2027, a couple of days ago. So until then, and that's important, there's no need for additional external funding of our operations. Second element to it is the leverage. As you know, our leverage is temporarily elevated, and we see this also in Q2. We might be around 4.1 or something like this in this ballpark, which is why we have decided to issue a reduced dividend reducing our cash outflow. We will not breach our bank covenants. That's clear, and we have a clear eye on this topic also for Q3, obviously, as well.

The next question comes from the line of David Adlington from JPMorgan.

Maybe just to start off with, you mentioned the slowdown in cough/cold. I just wondered if you had any insights into why that was because I think it was actually quite a hard cough/cold season. And then secondly, what changed so much in the last 6 or 7 weeks since you reported the Q1 results? And then finally, I think you pointed towards giving new midterm guidance at Q2. Are you still planning to host a Capital Markets Day later this year?

I think I'll start with the last one with the Capital Markets Day, yes. We are still planning Capital Markets Day. As indicated, we have to do this when we have the new structure ready. So it's by end of the summer into the fall. We are looking for the date right now, but that's clearly the case. And in this Capital Markets Day, we want to give a better outlook on the new segmentation of the business, the integration of Bormioli, the outlook of the business. And I think that's what we are planning.

Maybe to tackle your second question, David, this was about what changed in the last 6 weeks. Yes, when we reported our Q1 numbers, we basically have identified already and highlighted that we said we have topics about Plastic Packaging and Moulded Glass, and this area was there's unfavorable market conditions in these 2 areas, unfortunately, were really persisting also in the second quarter. And therefore, we really took a more cautious view based on these 2 elements as we have elaborated.

And then just the reasons for weakness in all liquids?

The weakness in oral liquids is actually hitting us in both Plastic Packaging and in Moulded. In Plastic Packaging, actually, it's closures, especially closures from one facility in Rivanazzano that actually are also used for molded glass bottles, but not necessarily from Gerresheimer but competitors. And this market is pretty soft at the moment as this coughing syrups and the whole syrups don't have a strong market. And the flu season in spring was pretty soft so there was no demand for the syrups. And that's one of the topics because this will not come back before the end of the year when the next flu season comes in.

The next question comes from the line of Falko Friedrichs from Deutsche Bank.

My first question is on your organic growth guidance for this year. So you've just confirmed that the GLP-1 sales are fine, but that's giving you 4% group growth. So is it a fair assumption that your Plastics & Devices segment, excluding GLP-1 sales, should be declining in 2025? And why is that the case? Secondly is your syringes problem, is that resolved, the problem you had in the first quarter? Is that business fully back to normal? Or is that also one of the reasons why you've reduced your outlook? And then last but not least, would you consider raising equity over the next few months in order to bring your leverage down?

Yes, Plastics & Devices, you have to do the math. But in the end, we are growing in the GLP-1 areas. We have to see also in Plastic & Devices, some of these ramp-ups only start in the second half of the year. With the fact that the oral liquids affect the closures in plastic packaging, there is no positive growth in this segment at present. So maybe the assumption we are not growing much outside of the GLP-1 in Plastic & Devices, that's probably true. The syringe is faster answered because in principle, that's the phasing topic from quarter 1 to quarter 2 is in principle completed and was visible also in quarter 2.

Maybe just to tackle the question regarding the equity raise, important one. No, we don't plan for this. And we don't plan for an equity raise, especially given the share price where we are, and it's also not needed based on our plan.

The next question comes from the line of Curtis Moiles from BNP Paribas Exane.

I just have a couple here. So the first one is the softness in the oral liquids. I just wanted to go back to that very quickly. It sounds like your commentary is indicating this is kind of a one quarter topic. I just wanted to confirm, is that kind of what you have in mind? Or could this also be through the second half of the year a little bit? And then the second question, I just wanted to touch base on the cadence of revenue in Q3 and Q4. Is it still fair to assume that you probably see a quarter-on-quarter acceleration in the second half as well for both revenue and margins?

I can take the first one, Bernd. The softness on the oral liquids affects both Plastics and Moulded Glass. And as I indicated before, it is something that will also be a burden in the second half of the year because it will probably only come back in the next flu season and the winter. And it's one of the reasons why we actually are sitting here now with taking down of the guidance.

Maybe just tackle your second question regarding revenue growth quarter-on-quarter. Actually, we don't -- I would not go now into too much detail. But clearly, if you look at the second half of this year, this will definitely grow in comparison to the first half of this year, there's no doubt. And as you know, our fourth quarter is always the strongest, and this will be also the case this year.

The next question comes from the line of Ed Hall from Stifel.

A couple of questions from my end. Firstly, just high level on the midterm guide change. How do you see the underlying sort of trends change versus the original trends when you first issued the guidance? Any high-level comments there would be really appreciated. Second question would just be on sort of free cash flow change. Obviously, with the cut to EBITDA margin, how do you envisage the free cash flow change for this year and then for next year? And then finally, just on the interest rates of the debt currently, what is the percentage of fixed versus variable? And how has this changed after the extension of the loan?

I take the tricky one, the first one, midterm guidance. Actually, the things we are discussing here and that are affecting '25 are primarily short term. What we will do is we will look into the figures based also on the financial CapEx topics over the loop of the next weeks and then update you on the real Q2 results and the midterm guidance in the July call in -- with the Q2 reporting as planned.

I will tackle your question regarding the free cash flow. Yes, indeed, ultimately, obviously, also the EBITDA decline affects our cash flow, our expected cash flow, unfortunately. We will provide a comprehensive update on our Q2 and first half year '25 results, including cash flow developments, obviously, on the 10th of July. That said, we do not expect our cash flow to enter negative triple-digit million euro territory. So it should be negative, but below or less than EUR 100 million negative. That's basically where we see the situation. And all the details we will need to work out in the next couple of days and weeks before our July release. One thing is important, Dietmar just mentioned it, we have to look also at our CapEx program and to see what we -- where we are have handpicked in this area and is something what we need to do in the next couple of weeks. There was a question about the variable. So in the average, we have interest in magnitude 4% to 5% on our net debt in the average. So everything included leasing interest, that's the ballpark. And another thing is around 50% is variable, 50% is fixed.

The next question comes from the line of John Rolfe from Crescent Rock Quest Capital.

I'm sorry, the question answered.

Okay. Then we proceed with the next question, a follow-up question coming from the line of David Adlington from JPMorgan.

Just wondering sort of post the Bormioli acquisition, it does look like some of the areas of softness in terms of fixtures on the molded glass side do appear to be connected to Bormioli. How confident are you that they didn't supply excess amounts of stock into the channel before the purchase?

Can you repeat the question? It was some bad line at the moment, sorry.

Yes. So I hope that's better. In terms of the Bormioli acquisition, it looks like quite a lot of the softness is coming from closures and molded glass, which I assume is in part at least down to Bormioli. Do you think there are any issues with them overselling into the channel prior to the acquisition?

It's difficult to say. I mean we have access to the Bormioli in full scope since December. What we see though is a softness in this oral liquid market, which was -- which also led to certain stock at the customers. It's affecting the Bormioli, but we also see this in the, call it, legacy molded glass business for Gerresheimer. That's a point, yes.

There are no further persons with questions in the queue at this time. We, therefore, now conclude today's call. We're happy to organize follow-up calls, as you know, should you have any questions. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Yes. Thank you.

Thank you.