Goodman Group (GMG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Goodman Group Q1 Fiscal Year 2025 Operational Update Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker, Greg Goodman, CEO. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. I have Nick Vrondas with me on the call. I'll make a few short remarks before opening the call up for general questions. Goodman has continued to progress a range of logistics and data center opportunities this quarter, which sets us up very well for a strong 2025. Property fundamentals across the portfolio are stable after several years of strong growth. We're still seeing good demand for prime logistics locations where customers are focusing on maximizing efficiency and productivity over the long term. Our strategy of delivering essential infrastructure involves the development of both our warehouses and data center pipeline, and we have a significant global work book of $12.8 billion underway in key cities around the world. The portfolio is strong. We have assets under management of around $80 billion, like-for-like rental growth of close to 5%, high occupancy over 97%, and we have strong development starts in train that should significantly expand assets under management over the coming years, providing solid returns for our capital partners and investors. Data center demand has continued unabated with expectations for it to double over the next 5 years. The group is well positioned to support this demand. This quarter, we've expanded our secure power bank to 2.6 gigawatts out of 5, which provides access to power on our existing sites. The remaining 2.4 gigawatts are in advanced stages of procurement, and we continue to assess our existing land bank for power opportunities. Importantly, we've also evolved our delivery capabilities to offer a range of options, which now include fully fitted facilities with operational solutions. This is being driven by customer requirements for operational assets to improve speed to market and also aligns with the increasing capital targeting investment in operational data centers. Development activities are forecast to continue to provide attractive margins supported by resilient warehouse rents in our markets, limited supply and reduced competition, while data center continues to grow as a portion of our global work book, now making up over 40%. We're also investing in our data center capabilities, developing and deploying our existing team around the world and augmenting their skills in complex large-scale infrastructure delivery with new technical data center hires. We're expanding. We're upskilling our teams across design, technical, operational and commercial aspects to support our customers so they can deploy capacity to their customers in the quickest time possible. The entire Goodman team is focused on execution, and we confirm our forecast FY '25 operating EPS growth of 9%, which equates to over $2.2 billion of operating profit and a full year distribution of $0.30 per share. Thank you. And Nick and I can now take some questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will be coming from Lou Pirenc of Jarden.

Two quick questions for me. I mean you talked about substantial starts in calendar '25. Can you maybe provide a bit more detail, maybe even try to quantify it to some degree?

Yes. No, I probably won't try and quantify it. But what we will do in '25, there's a number of data center starts around the world in the different countries that we're working through as well as actually a pretty robust industrial work book. I think there's still $7 billion of industrial going on around the world with a fair chunk of that actually in Australia, North America and also Japan. I think that's over 60% of it. So we see those markets still being actually pretty strong on starts where we're in constrained land environments, particularly in '26, '27 around industrial. I think the data centers, Lou, to be clear, every time you make a start, let's call it an 80-megawatt data center, which tends to be on a gross basis tends to be -- going to be our sweet spot on per building, I think, you're talking close to $2 billion in value. So you don't need many starts in '25 to see that it builds pretty quickly on a fully operational and turnkey basis. So there will be a number of starts in '25. We'll give some more guidance to the market, I think, Nick, when we get through the February at the half year. But a lot of work going in on land infrastructure, big trenches being built for big power cables, a lot of planning, a lot of money being spent on planning and also negotiation with customers. So let's have a bigger, more robust conversation about that as we get into the February half.

Fair enough. And then just a quick second one on the power. So you secured a bit more power in the quarter, 2.6 now. Can you talk through the remaining 2.4 that is not yet secured in terms of how comfortable you are to secure that going forward?

Yes. Look, very, it's just a matter of time frames. And I think the other thing we're very conscious of, and this is why I think you find '25, there's a big push on for starts, you want to be using the power you have allocated and you want to make sure you keep moving through that as sensibly as you can. But in regard to the 2.4 gigawatts, the answer to that is yes, we're very comfortable, and we're working on a number of times bigger than that to end up with that number. So I think our total work around the world is more like 10 gross, we're working on to come up with a 5. So we're comfortable. And some of that application lodged will go into secured when we come into 2025.

Our next question will be coming from James Druce of CLSA.

Can we get a feel for the start for '25 in terms of whether you're leaning towards more turnkey or powered shell. You sort of expressed a view that you're very, very comfortable doing the former. And just if you are going down the turnkey path, just how you're going with procurement with long lead items like transformers, which can take up to 3 years to get at the moment?

Yes. Well, procurement, you won't be buying them if you're going to be starting. So that's the first point. Second point, you want to be very deliberate about what you're doing. You need to be very definite about what you're doing. And I think you'll find, once again, as we get through the February into the half year, we're just in the first quarter, we'll give you a bit more color on it. You'll find these starts in '25, we're anticipating and expecting the planning is around turnkeys. So as I said to Lou, there's probably $1 billion of cost on one start and then on value would be substantially higher than that. So you don't need to start many for the book to be building substantially. What we're focused on is doing it right, doing it, taking a time, getting the infrastructure in the right places and then hitting the right markets also. So I think you'll find Europe is a very, very good market for us. Australia is going to be a very good market for us. Japan will be a very good market for us, I think, in 2025. And I think you might see a U.S. as well. That will be the geographies we'd be looking for in 2025.

Okay. And can you touch on just the start that you had over the quarter? It just sounds like you're doing some preworks. Is that just for one asset? Or is that for multiple...?

It's a few pieces of infrastructure going in the sites that we're starting in 2025.

And one more, if I may. Just on occupancy, it just ticked down a little bit over the quarter. Can you just talk to whether that's a trend or just an aberration?

Yes, I wouldn't say it's aberration. I think that's probably weighting in China, where I think China is knocking around 92%, 93%, dragging down the average. But Europe, for example, is 99%. Japan, I think, is actually 100%. Australia is around 97.5%, 98%, something like that. So look, it's very, very strong. It's a China skew in that regard, but we're expecting that will tighten up a little bit over the next year or 2 and particularly as we're not building as much in China moving forward until conditions improve around the economy.

Our next question will be coming from Simon Chan of Morgan Stanley.

My first question, it's pretty clear from your comments today that a lot of the data centers you'll be kicking off imminently will be turnkey. I think that's a big change versus, say, 12 months ago when I guess you were a little bit a ferry as to is it going to be power shell or is it going to be turnkey? Can we just get some comments? Is this purely based on, one, customer demand, like tenant demand? Or is it, two, capital? Because I noticed in your disclosure today, you talked about how a significant proportion of the capital targeting data center opportunities is seeking operational asset exposure. So like what's driving this trend towards turnkey in your work book?

Yes. I don't think I've ever been a ferry. I don't think I'll be accused of that, but I'll take that on notice. Effectively, what we're saying, I think we're saying a very, very clearly, the customer demand, speed to market, the complete solution is what we're doing, what we're planning, and we're spending a lot of money in planning, in negotiations and discussions around exactly that. Now I think the nuance of the announcement today, you would have probably noted we're talking about operating solutions. And that means we'll be doing turnkey full build-outs with potential Goodman operating solution being Goodman operating, but also there will be other operators that we can partner with to accelerate some outcomes and things we might want to do as well. So I think you'll find that the customers, particularly in Europe, particularly in Japan, down in Australia, where everyone is pretty stretched. I'm talking about the global workforce in being able to operate and develop these things through. Our competitive advantage and our opportunity is to provide the complete solution, including the operating solution as well. So I think that's the program, the progress we're on. That then changes the dynamic, which means when you're talking to investors globally as we are and think about the Goodman partnerships we have in place now, think about the future, we'll have partnerships in place for operating data centers, which will be infrastructure capital and operational type of returns. And operational returns are different to returns coming out of stable passive pieces of industrial real estate, those returns need to be higher because they're operational with risk and reward. But Goodman will partner the capital side of the equation like we have with industrial over the last 20-odd years. The same will occur with the data center operational assets. And you can read the newspaper as well as I can, I'm assuming. And it's fairly clear the demand for operational assets globally from large infrastructure investors.

Okay. That's a little bit of a change, isn't it, Greg, because up until, I guess, 6 months ago, Goodman still hadn't -- hadn't articulated that you want to be an operator of data center, right? So...

I'm not saying we're...

Risk curve a little bit or...

No. I think the important thing about that is partnership. So I think we'll monitor and watch that very, very closely. I don't think Goodman's expectation is the Goodman Group is a data center operator as a company, but there may be operating assets in partnerships with infrastructure investors that primarily want that return and want that operation. I think that's the distinct difference. But going back to the customer, the solution for the customer, speed to market, it's very, very important. Goodman goes and ties a bow on it. So then our big customers can go, yes, I'm in Paris, I've got the solution, I'm up by 2028. That's a very, very important part of the offering.

Right. And just one more, if I may, to take it a step further. Can you give us an indication as to the sort of returns differential between the standard DC real estate type returns versus operational data center type of returns you'll be after?

Look, look, I think there's enough commentary around that. You can probably take a line in the sand and it's probably something we're not going to talk about right on this call. But if you look at a stable industrial asset or a powered shell or something like that with a real estate style lease, you'd expect those returns to be in the -- around the 9% range, I think is 9% to 10% with a bit of leverage is where it's hitting the mark globally. You expect operational assets to be higher than that.

Our next question will be coming from David Pobucky of Macquarie.

Just the first one, I appreciate that yield on commencements was of those early-stage infra works at cost. If we just reflect on FY '24 of 7.5%, are you able to provide any commentary around how you believe that will progress over FY '25?

Yes. Look, it's fair to say in the industrial, we're starting at the moment is north of that. It's that or better effectively. There's a fair bit of Japan in that as well, which is obviously dilutes that number effectively. And you would expect our data center program to be north of that.

And just a second one on data centers and power entitlements yet to be secured. Geographically, where do you see or where do you think it's the most challenging or the least challenging to secure power?

Yes, they're all challenging. Japan would be right up there with #1 slot. Bearing in mind the size of what we've got over there, which is actually secured, I think it's about 350, but total is over 1 gigawatt in Japan. That is very, very, very rare and very difficult. But then you go through Europe and let's go Frankfurt, let's go Paris, let's go Amsterdam very, very, very difficult to get it, well advanced on those, and we'll have some starts in Europe in '25, and that will be very key for us. Then I think you go into the U.K., same thing, very challenging, and we're talking about years, not months on this sort of stuff as well. We will have a start in the U.S. as well on our site, the first site we put on the page there, but we've got others we're working on as well. And we've upskilled our team in the U.S. as well to take it all the way through to operational. And I think you'll find the first one that comes out of the ground in U.S. will be operational asset.

And just last one for me, if I may. Just on logistics. As everyone knows, industrial market rates continue to roll off. In that context, how is global capital viewing the traditional logistics sector in that context, please?

Yes. Yes, pretty well at the moment. There's actually good buying and Goodman is doing a ton of work at the moment with our big partners around the world, getting them reset, changing some of the partnership settings up because I think if you're getting for good buildings in good markets, 9%, 10% total returns, actually, some of them are in double digit now, it's pretty, pretty good. The other thing you've got happening, and you would have seen out Western Sydney just recently, a big block of land, Western Sydney, I think, 25 hectares is reported -- this once again is in the newspaper, reported to be sold effectively, which is taking industrial land out of the market for data centers at a data center price, which industrial wouldn't work at. So I think you'll find that industrial land in certain locations, Western Sydney is the same. It's getting squeezed. So we've got opportunities around all those areas. We've got some big opportunities in Japan. I was there a couple of weeks ago on a couple of big sites we're progressing on. Some of those actually will be like Chiba, where there'll be data centers and industrial buildings in the same parks with all the amenities and things of that nature. And I think you'll find that our industrial starts on a stand-alone basis will be a lot larger in the future. We're looking at bigger sites, $0.5 billion starts things of that nature rather than doing small individual buildings in different locations. We're really looking to put the amenity, the infrastructure, power, battery, all the things that make these things work. And you might find that there's some sheds and there's some data centers coexisting as there is in a number of locations we have around the world now. Effectively, look at Western Sydney, you're going to have data centers and industrial all living next door to each other. So that is the way these things are building out, putting pressure on industrial land values, tightening up the supply as well where our major development markets are.

Our next question will be coming from Richard Jones of JPMorgan.

Just in relation to ownership on Goodman's behalf, should we be thinking about similar type ownerships to industrial where you have a higher ownership through construction at maybe 50% and then sell that down into funds and partnerships where the equity stake drops to circa 20% on completion. Is that how you're thinking about the ownership? And maybe, Greg, to follow on, just with discussions with capital partners that you're having on the data center side, are they similar partners that you've got in the existing platform?

Yes. I think the way you described it upfront is exactly right. If you think about what Goodman does now, and that's at the beginning, at the end in the middle, that's the way we'll be transacting with infrastructure partners effectively on operating data centers. I think the powered shells sit somewhere in between real estate infrastructure, more like real estate. That's a bit different. We're actually just setting up another partnership with some shells at the moment in a location. And that's actually a bit of a hybrid sort of real estate infrastructure type investor, happy with a 20-year lease and more indexation. When you're talking about the operational assets, it's real infrastructure, real operations. And you can imagine the people we deal with have a real estate arm and they have an infrastructure arm. So if you sort of think about that you think about the capital you see going to the market in data centers, that would be similar to the people we're talking to. And I think, look, it's well advertised and every second day in the fin review, there seems to be an article about data centers selling or trading. We're talking to the same people.

Our next question will be coming from Tom Bodor of UBS.

Just wanted to just zero in a little bit on the turnkey leases. And where you are doing those leases with Tier 1 hyperscalers, just be interested in their willingness for you to continue to own those facilities long term? Or are they generally preferring to actually buy them on completion or stabilization?

Yes. Look, really good question. The -- I expect both is the reality. But if you think about the amount of capital that's required for the sector over the next 6, 7 years, and once again, I'm not quoting any numbers, but I think everyone is aware, we're talking about billions and billions and hundreds of billions of dollars seems to be quoted around the marketplaces. You can imagine capital is finite. And if we come up with good operating partnerships that have long-term capital, and that's what Goodman is about in all our partnerships around the world, long-term capital, sustainable financing, long-term financing, so then we can provide a stable financial platform for big customers, you can imagine that's pretty attractive. Then if Goodman adds either operations through partnerships or operations through direct. You can imagine the gate-to-gate solution being the build capital, sustainable, long-term capital, so not a trading mentality. And then operational expertise, you can imagine that is very, very, very attractive in a world where there could be a lot of data centers trading all around the place. And you can imagine customers ultimately will get pretty nervous about where all those are going because they are essential pieces of infrastructure that drives some very, very big businesses in the world. So think about it in that context and any capital stability you can give to that plus operational plus high-quality build process is a big opportunity for Goodman.

Right. Right. That makes sense. And where the customer wants to just buy the center outright from you, is that something you'll be inclined to do? Or are you going to really try to keep the management rights and hold on to the assets on behalf of your partners?

Yes. Look, there'll be a combination of things. I think if you think about some AI campuses, and we've got a few that are around that 400, 500 sort of megawatts, different campuses, probably Goodman is in the business there of just potentially doing shells. They may be in partnerships with hyperscalers, they may be sold to hyperscalers. If you think about assets like Artarmon, which will kick off next year, for example, down here in Sydney, and I just say that because it's local and you know where it is, that would be a great asset for us to own with our partners long term, great location, good asset, really hard to obviously replicate. So I think of it in that way. there's going to be things that are more commoditized and there will be things that are way more difficult to replicate. And I think Goodman will play that as we have played industrial over the last sort of 20, 30 years, we've been doing this probably 30 years actually. Maybe 35 years, Carl. Can you -- is it 35 years, Carl or what's the official?

35.

Yes. I'm just going to my legal counsel. So it's 35 years?

Plus.

Plus, yes.

That's great. And then just a final one for me is just the main constraint you're sort of seeing in terms of getting things started. How are you feeling about the people front? I know you've made some hires recently. Are you pretty well resourced in terms of having all the right people? Or is there a couple of gaps across the platform? And are there any other constraints that are sort of holding you back from getting these things into production?

No. Look, it's just working through the infrastructure properly, the planning and the power, making sure you've got the planning and your contractors locked down, understanding the nuances of what customers want and there will be different settings for different locations. There will be some partnerships we probably will do around the world with some operators. Why? Because they might have infrastructure in the area that actually there's some synergies and benefits of doing that. And I think you'll see a couple of those as well. On the people front, it's a programmed approach. So we spent a lot of time on mechanical, electrical design. We're now spending a lot of time on operational because we want to understand exactly what we're building and then what we're operating at the end. So then we articulate that and have a conversation with the customer. So it's a progressive journey. It's not like we're out one day saying we need 100 people. But the teams, the expertise, and the adoption -- adaptability of people we've got primarily around planning and key pieces of infrastructure, which we're really, really quite good at. that effectively, you augment that, put that all together, we've got a very, very, very strong technical team from ground through to completion. And then we'll put the operational overlay on that as well.

And our next question will be coming from Peter Davidson of Pendal Group.

Just I can understand the model as you've described it with Goodman's being an operator. I'm just trying to think of how it would work. Would Goodman being operated as a tenant being the hyperscaler? Or would you also have a tenant, which is a colo as well?

Look, I don't think we're going to get into the marketing of 2 or 3-megawatt type space. And if we do have, Pete, a couple of floors in a building like that, I think you might find that we're partnering that with people with big sales teams and forces and you know who those people are. A number of them are listed in the world. So I think to put it simply, Pete, if a big hyperscaler comes and they go, yes, we want that building. It's an 80-megawatt hour and we'll take it over 5 years. Can we operate that for them with them or however that balance goes because you're actually operating with them effectively as they're operating inside the building as well. So yes, it's more in that vein. But where we do have infrastructure coming out of the ground, where there may be some synergistic benefits because we've got buildings around us with different operators there may be some advantages in doing that with an operator that's good credentials, and we all know who they are. So yes, it will be a combination of the two, but I think you've described it pretty well.

And I would now like to turn the call back to Greg for closing remarks.

I'd just like to thank everyone very much for their time this morning.

And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.