Grafton Group plc (GFTU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Grafton Group Full Year Results Presentation. We will have the pleasure today, with me, Eric Born, CEO; and David Arnold, our CFO. So I will first give an introduction about some operational and financial highlights before handing over to David to guide you through the details of the financial results. In terms of operational highlights, we had a solid trading performance in what I would call challenging market conditions in all our markets actually resilient performance in distribution despite lower volumes, a very strong trading performance in DIY retails with Woodie's as the Irish consumer confidence recovered and the higher operating profitability in our Manufacturing segment despite lower volumes. We strengthened our market positions through new branch openings and bolt-on acquisitions. So we keep on investing in our market position also in the downturn of the cycle. So we opened 7 more branches. We opened 2 in the U.K., Selco in Peterborough and Leyland in Hammersmith. We opened 1 branch in the Netherlands, 2 in Ireland and 2 in Finland. Furthermore, we executed 5 bolt-on acquisitions, 3 of them in the U.K., 2 in Northern Ireland, 1 in Great Britain, 1 in Ireland and 1 in Finland. We have an enhanced pipeline of acquisition opportunities for further bolt-ons but also for platform acquisitions in new European markets. We made significant progress in terms of our sustainability agenda during 2023. If you look at the financials, the full year adjusted operating profit of GBP 205.5 million was at slightly better than the top end of analyst expectations. Adjusted operating profit margin pre-property profits was 8.8% and we achieved a solid ROCE of 11.9%, well ahead of our cost of capital. We increased our dividend in the year by 9.1% and returned almost GBP 230 million to shareholders via dividend and share buybacks. And despite all of that, we still end the year with a strong net cash position before leases of GBP 380 million. So let me now hand over to David for the financial review.

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everybody. So turning first to the income statement and revenue of GBP 2.3 billion was 0.8% higher than in 2022. The group's adjusted operating profit, pre-property profit of GBP 204.2 million was 21.6% lower than prior year and represented an operating margin of 8.8%. Property profit was GBP 1.3 million, which related to the disposal of 3 surplus properties across Ireland and the U.K. And you may recall that a significant proportion of the property profit in 2022 was related to the sale of some U.K. freehold properties, which would retain following the disposal of the traditional merchanting business in Great Britain. Adjusted operating profit, including property profit was GBP 205.5 million, 28% lower than 2022. In 2023, the group had net finance income of GBP 0.4 million, which compared to a net finance cost of GBP 12.6 million in 2022. Now this movement primarily related to the higher returns on deposits, which reflected the increase in the Bank of England base rate from 0.25% at the start of 2022 to the 5.25%, which it sits at today. The adjusted profit before tax was GBP 205.9 million. Now this slide breaks out the movement in earnings per share in a little bit more detail. Our reported earnings per share of 77.9p per share was just under 8% higher than consensus and there were a number of reasons for this, each of which represent a positive. Firstly, our adjusted operating profit was slightly above the top end of the range at GBP 205.5 million. Secondly, we had that net finance income for the year of GBP 0.4 million. And then the final component was that our effective tax rate was 19%, and that was lower than we had originally anticipated at the start of the year and that was very much a function of the geographic mix of our profits and the relative strength of our Irish businesses. Overall shares in issue during the year were 8.4% lower as a result of our share buyback programs and hence, the adjusted earnings per share was 77.9p compared to 96.6p in the prior year. We've increased our dividend per share by 9.1% to 36p per share, which maintains the cash cost of the dividend at the same level as the prior year in order that those shareholders who have remained on the register get rewarded and participate in cash benefits from the buyback program. Our full year dividend cover was 2.2x. Looking at the revenue movement in 2023, the organic movement reduced revenue by GBP 21 million. Acquisitions contributed an incremental GBP 12 million and foreign exchange translation movements at GBP 27 million, and that was attributable to the stronger euro. Now this slide analyzes the decrease of GBP 21 million in organic revenue from last year. As expected and previously flagged, the U.K. and Irish distribution businesses saw year-on-year reductions in revenue as volumes and prices softened. There was good organic growth in the Netherlands of GBP 7 million with sales to establish key account customers increasing in particular. In Finland, our IKH business saw a decline of GBP 9 million in revenue as a result of weakening in domestic demand and more challenging trading conditions in construction markets in particular. The Woodie's retailing business in Ireland delivered good revenue growth of GBP 10 million following a solid trading performance in the year. In manufacturing, revenue was broadly in line with last year following a good performance in both CPI and StairBox despite a weaker volume backdrop. And new branch openings contributed GBP 11 million of sales, with a large portion of this from Selco newer branches in Cheltenham, Exeter and Peterborough. Turning to the movement in reported adjusting operating profit. This slide bridges from 2022's reported adjusting operating profit of GBP 285.9 million to the GBP 205.5 million reported in 2023. Profitability in the like-for-like business reduced by GBP 53.6 million, and we'll examine this in more detail in a moment. You'll see that new branches reduced operating profit by GBP 3 million, which relates to first year operating losses as we'd expect and anticipate, particularly for new Selco stores, which opened outside the M25. Bolt-on acquisitions made a profit contribution of GBP 1.4 million. And as previously mentioned, property profit was down by GBP 24.1 million. In 2022, we recognized a one-off pension gain of GBP 3.7 million following the closure of our largest Irish-defined benefit contribution schemes. And finally, foreign exchange translation movements contributed a gain of GBP 2.6 million. The squeeze from a weak trading environment, timber and steel product price deflation and ongoing inflationary pressures on operating expenses, notwithstanding our absolute focus on costs and efficiency were common themes across many of our businesses. Looking at the GBP 53.6 million reduction in operating profit in our like-for-like business, you can see that the 2 principal areas where profitability declined were in the U.K. and Irish distribution businesses with reductions of GBP 32.8 million and GBP 11.5 million, respectively. In the U.K., the repair, maintenance and improvement market remained very weak, which naturally impacted Selco with its pure RMI focus. RMI is typically first into a cyclical downturn, but equally will be first out when the recovery begins. We also saw the RMI impact in Northern Ireland, where MacBlair encountered weaker trading conditions. Profitability in our Irish distribution business was down by GBP 11.5 million in 2023 as Chadwicks contended with significant steel and timber price deflation, competitive markets and operating cost inflation. In the Netherlands and in Finland, each saw a reduction in like-for-like profits of GBP 5.1 million and GBP 5.7 million, respectively. Woodie's like-for-like profit saw only a slight dip in profitability despite the more challenging economic backdrop for the Irish consumer and a strong performance, particularly from CPI EuroMix saw operating profit in the Manufacturing segment increased by GBP 2.8 million for the year overall. In Ireland, Chadwicks delivered a solid performance, responding well to evolving market conditions and contending with significant steel and timber price deflation. Reported revenue increased by 2.1% to GBP 631 million, although adjusted operating profit decreased by 13.5% to GBP 60.9 million. A decline in average daily like-for-like revenue of 1.2% was concentrated in the first half of the year as a result of a moderation in spending on home improvements in that period. There was a resumption of growth in average daily like-for-like revenue in the second half against a backdrop of firmer demand in the residential RMI and new build markets. And as a result, we increased our adjusted operating margin from 9.1% in the first half to 10.2% in the second. Following the spike in prices during the pandemic, we saw the important steel and timber product categories start to normalize in price, but that led to product price deflation of 18% and 14%, respectively. Across all categories, overall price deflation in Irish distribution was approximately 2%. The decline in gross profit was GBP 7 million alone on steel, which made up the majority of the reduction in profit in Chadwicks during 2023. Overheads remain tightly controlled in response to the more difficult trading conditions in 2023. But Chadwicks further strengthened its network, including the opening of a new branch in East Wall Road, Dublin, which will support existing and significant new development plan for housing and commercial projects in the city and Docklands area. The online platform offering was upgraded during the year to improve the business service offering. And Chadwicks partnered with yourretrofit.ie, which was launched in August and that assists customers who are looking to improve the energy efficiency of their homes. We continue to roll out our eco centers, which are now in 21 Chadwicks branches and which help customers see and better understand the range of sustainable products available to them. In U.K. distribution, revenue was down GBP 20.5 million to GBP 818.1 million with adjusted operating profit reducing by 42% and to GBP 47.3 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 5.8%. Average daily like-for-like revenue in the U.K. distribution business was down by 3.2% in the year, but the rate of volume decline did moderate as the year progressed. In Selco, we saw price inflation of 2.1% in the first half turning to price deflation of 2% in the second half as timber and steel materials pricing weakened across the industry. There was a reduction in the gross margin by 160 basis points across our U.K. distribution businesses during the year, which was a function of the weaker volume backdrop and more competitive markets as well as an investment in pricing to deliver even better value for customers on core ranges. Selco, along with other businesses -- our other businesses, maintain very tight discipline on operating expenses in what was an inflationary cost environment and this has contributed to material savings to our cost base in the second half of the year, and that will help mitigate the ongoing inflationary pressure in 2024. The early action taken on cost was reflected in the second half operating margin of 5.9%, which was slightly up on the 5.7% delivered in the first half. New Selco and Leyland SDM branches and acquisitions by MacBlair in Northern Ireland contributed sales of GBP 10.3 million. Our Netherlands business delivered a solid performance in a market that softened as the year developed. Reported revenue increased by 4.4% to GBP 351.5 million, and the adjusted operating profit decreased by 11.2% to GBP 33.4 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 9.5%. Despite a decline in existing housing transactions and a slowdown in new construction in the Netherlands, overall revenue growth in the year benefited from increased volumes to new and established key account customers engaged on larger commercial construction projects. The business performed strongly in the first half of the year, but average daily like-for-like revenue turned marginally negative in the last few months of the year as the rate of materials price inflation eased considerably. For the year as a whole, volumes were flat and inflation ran at just over 2%. The gross margin in H1 was in line with prior year, but finished the year slightly down as a change in product mix and competitive pressures had an adverse effect on our second half margin. Operating costs, while tightly controlled were pushed up by inflation-related increases in employment and property, with payroll increases negotiated at an industry level and were at their highest level for over 40 years. The 2 new branches, which we opened in 2022 and '23 have started well and 0 now trades from 124 branches. The economy in Finland weakened throughout 2023 as the country was in a mild recession as the interest -- as the rise in interest rates and weaker exports weighed on activity. Revenue for 2023 was 2.4% lower than 2022 at GBP 139.8 million. The adjusted operating profit was GBP 14.2 million, representing an operating margin of 10.2%. There was a slight softening in demand across the partner network and owned stores in the first half and trading conditions became increasingly more challenged in the second half. Revenue increased with partner stores from Estonia and Sweden. Overall average daily like-for-like revenue was down by 5.6% for the year. The owned store that was opened last year in Lapland in Northern Finland, started to grow market share, and we invested further into 2 new stores in 2023. The first completed in May 2023 in a suburb of the city of Tampere in Southern Finland. And in July, IKH acquired a store from its former partner in Southeast Finland. Since the year-end, the business has opened a new store in a suburb of Helsinki, and that now brings the total owned store network to 15. The Woodie's Retail business delivered a good trading performance in 2023 against a weaker consumer backdrop with reported revenue of GBP 258.2 million, 5.8% higher than prior year or 3.9% in constant currency. Reported adjusted operating profit of GBP 32.7 million was consistent with the prior year and represented an operating margin of 12.7%. It was particularly pleasing to see an increase in transaction numbers of 1.3% to over 8.5 million transactions and the average transaction value increasing by 2.6%. We saw strong performances in the decorative DIY and building materials categories. The gross margin recovered as a result of changes in mix and a fall in shipping and freight costs and overheads remain tightly controlled. The Woodie's team continued to drive engagement with all colleagues and for the eighth consecutive year has been recognized as a great place to work. Woodie's is also ranked in the top 50 best places -- best workplaces in Europe and is recognized as a great place to work for women in Ireland. And finally, just turning to our manufacturing businesses. Overall revenue was flat at GBP 120.6 million and adjusted operating profit was up by 10.5% to GBP 30.3 million, representing an operating margin of 25.1%. CPI EuroMix delivered a very good performance in a challenging market for house building. Revenue declined by 1.9%, but the business improved its margins as it recovered the impact of the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials, labor, energy and fuel. The number of silos on customer sites declined in line with volumes from a record level in the prior year as housing starts in GB slowed and the number of outlets operated by house builders reduced. Despite experiencing a sharp decline in volumes, those house builders scaled back production in response to weaker demand for new homes, together with managing inflationary cost pressures, operating profit ended the year only marginally behind the outturn for 2022. A newly integrated ERP solution that controls the entire business has been successfully rolled out replacing a legacy system. StairBox experienced good demand from customers in what was a challenging trading environment. Full year volumes declined by 4%, with growth of 3% in the first half. And as a result of deteriorating trading conditions in the RMI markets, a volume decline of 11% in the second half of the year. Overall, revenue was unchanged, and a record operating profit was supported by an improvement in the gross margin. In December 2023, StairBox acquired Wooden Windows, a manufacturer of bespoke high-performance timber windows and doors based in Stoke-on-Trent, which was formerly a sister company of StairBox. This acquisition offers an opportunity to realize significant synergies across the enlarged business. Turning now to the balance sheet and a few points here. As you can see, we saw a modest reduction in the group's capital employed, with the biggest component being the reduction in net working capital of GBP 27 million. The movement from a small net cash to small net debt position after leases largely reflects the capital return to shareholders during 2023. And looking briefly at that movement in net working capital, you can see a reduction in an inventory investment of GBP 38 million as we had targeted this year. And as we talked about at the interims, supply chains have become a little bit more reliable, notwithstanding the current issues in the Gulf. And I think there is further opportunity for us here though we must always be mindful of the requirement to make sure that we maintain our competitive advantage through stock availability. The group's adjusted return on capital employed was 11.9%, 530 basis points lower than 2022, which was a function of the lower level of profitability. Just turning to cash flow and cash of GBP 334.3 million was generated from operations, almost 20% higher than prior year despite the lower level of operating profit and highlighting the group's strong track record of cash generation. You can see that the most notable movement was the overall decrease during the year in working capital of GBP 29.5 million, which compared to an increase of GBP 71.3 million in 2022 as we emerged from the pandemic and trading normalized. Looking at the cash flow for the year in a bit more detail. The group delivered another very strong cash performance with free cash flow after payment of lease liabilities of GBP 205.6 million, representing 100% of adjusted operating profit. Dividends paid in cash during the year represented GBP 72.6 million. And under our buyback program, we repurchased shares to a cash value of GBP 155.7 million. Taking into account share buyback costs, shares purchased under LTIP schemes and the inflow from our SAYE scheme, the net cash outflow was GBP 157.5 million. In total, we returned GBP 228.3 million back to shareholders by way of dividends and share buybacks in 2023, which brings the total amount returned to shareholders in 2022 and '23 and to GBP 437.2 million. We invested GBP 25.4 million into the organic development of the group and GBP 27.9 million into acquisitions. We ended the year with net debt of GBP 49.3 million, including lease liabilities. And finally, just a few elements of technical guidance for 2024. So we're not expecting any significant contribution from property profits during the current year. Depreciation and amortization is forecast to be approximately GBP 115 million to GBP 120 million, on a good old-fashioned oil money basis, it's about GBP 45 million depreciation on PPE. Our 2024 gross CapEx in terms of development and organic -- sorry, development and replacement spend, we're expecting replacement spend to be approximately GBP 30 million and development spend approximately GBP 35 million. Our development spend would typically go in terms of branch improvements, branch expansion and investment into new systems. We're expecting a net finance charge in the current year of approximately GBP 3 million, that includes our IFRS 16 lease charge. Clearly, that is dependent upon spend during the year on areas like acquisitions and clearly will also be dependent upon interest rates. But at this stage, we're expecting it to be about GBP 3 million. And then finally, just on the tax charge, we're expecting the current year tax charge or tax rate to be approximately 21%. That will increase over time to being a little under 22% as we see the movement and share of profitability start to move back more towards the U.K. And on those final technical notes, I'll hand you back over to Eric.

Thank you, David. So let me say a few words around sustainability. Our current trading in the first couple of months, summarize last year again and talk about the focus for the year here currently. In terms of sustainability, we made very good progress around our 5 priority areas of the sustainability strategy, which our planet, customer & products, people, community and ethics. You can read all the detail in our sustainability report, which has been integrated into the annual report, which is available as of today. As part of our focus on sustainability, we have established an executive committee on sustainability chaired by me and implemented a sustainability scorecard which is embedded in our quarterly business reviews with each one of the operating businesses in order to make sure that sustainability is an integral part how we run the business rather than an add-on to the business. In terms of double materiality, we completed the double materiality reality exercise involving extensive stakeholder engagement in preparation for the new corporate sustainability reporting directive. Our Scope 3 emissions have been calculated for the first time and targets have been submitted to the SBTi for validation with an [indiscernible] target no later than 2050. In terms of CO2 reduction on Scope 1, Scope 2, we made significant progress reducing CO2 emission by 12.2% relative to revenue, but of course, acknowledging that 98% of the emissions are in Scope 3 for our distribution business. In terms of gender diversity, we are well ahead of industry average. However, we did have a slight decline in gender diversity and the female percentage of colleagues has been 28.5% relative to a good 29% in the previous year. Now I would like to point out 2 things. One, 5 of our businesses improved the diversity, but some had a slight decline. But at the same time, we actually increased the percentage of senior management, which are female across the group. But as we normally communicate the percentage of women, it has gone slightly down year-over-year. David already mentioned, we have implemented 21 eco centers now operating at Chadwicks to help customers to learn more about how they can improve their energy efficiencies. And we also implemented a partnership with yourretrofit.ie, which helps the customers to see -- how do they get the best bang for their money in terms of improving energy efficiencies in the home and how do they apply for grants, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Current trading. It's a bit of a mixed bag in the first 2 months. Other than DIY where the average like-for-like revenue for the group was down in the first 2 months by 5.3% across the group. Deflation and wet weather, particularly in the U.K. meant significantly weaker revenue than anticipated. There's quite a big difference for example, in the Selco, whether it rains or not, you can really see that in the revenue line on each particular day. And you also see the recession in Finland reflected in the revenue numbers over the average daily revenue numbers in the first 2 months. However, I would like to point out that our profitability in the first 2 months has been in line with our expectations as we continue to have strong management on the cost line. In terms of outlook, we expect Ireland to be the strongest economy of the economies we are currently in during 2024. So RMI and TRY demand is expected to be resilient and we expect house completion to increase on the back of the government support in Ireland. In terms of U.K., we remain cautious in the near term in terms of RMI demand, and we expect housing volumes to be lower in '24 than they were in '23. In terms of Netherlands, real income growth expect to support the household spending and there are some early indications that the Netherlands might turn the corner and the housing market to recover. In terms of Finland, we mentioned there is a modernization in Finland, and the construction element has been especially hold hit, if you want. But relative to other Finnish businesses in the sector, IKH, weathers the storm relatively well. So group like-for-like revenue, we expect to be relatively flat in 2024. We see more reason for optimism emerging in the second half. However, we don't bank on that and we keep on driving efficiencies and operating cost management in order to mitigate inflation headwinds, which will continue during this year. So let me summarize. 2023, a very solid performance. We do have leading brands with very strong defendable market positions in every territory we are in. We continue to invest in the down cycle. So we opened new stores organically. I have mentioned that. We continue to do bolt-ons to strengthen the market positions and to be well prepared once the cycle turns. We view all our existing geography as very attractive markets from a structural perspective. They all have a housing deficit. They all have aged stock. So whilst there is a down cycle, we have no doubt that the long-term outlook for all market segments, all market geographies we are in is strong. We have very focused management teams which focus on the market and on operational delivery and continuous improvement, which is key, especially to be agile and act during the downturn. I think all of that is reflected in our excellent cash generation and our very strong balance sheet. We had a disciplined cash allocation during the year. We spent almost GBP 30 million for acquisitions. We paid, as mentioned earlier, a significant dividend and continue to return money to shareholders more than GBP 155 million in share buybacks. And we also, last but not least, made very good progress in further widening our M&A pipeline in both in terms of quality and the number of potential targets, which leads me to the last slide before going to Q&A, where is the focus going forward? Well, we continue to manage the business with our well-proven operating model, which is really a lean center with -- center of excellence, working very closely with our operating businesses. So we have a decentralized structure. We review the businesses. We challenge them. We give them help and excellence on topics like IT and so on, but they are really focused on their end markets, which is an operating model, we believe works really well and differentiates us to other businesses. There continues to be a tight management of the cost base in order to mitigate the inflationary pressures. And of course, we continue to allocate capital through the cycle to further strengthen our existing brands and build on our historical track record of delivering organic and acquisitive growth. We will further focus on strengthening the position in existing markets, but of course, also focus on the development of new growth platform in new markets. And last but not least, we have had good progress in building our M&A pipeline, and we keep on working on those platform opportunities throughout the year. Thank you very much, and we are ready for your questions.

So just in terms of process, we've got a great turnout to date. So it's lovely to see everyone here in person, but there will be a mic, if you could wait for the mic to come to you. If you could say your name, rank and serial number. [Operator Instructions] So that was better. So we've got a mic coming around. I'm also conscious some of you have got to disappear off promptly. So I will try and take the questions from those who are going to disappear promptly first. So we'll start on the front bench. We'll start with Christen, if that's okay.

Christen Hjorth from Numis. I'll ask 1 question, but maybe a little bit more color around it rather than the normal 3. Clearly, the key recovery in profitability in the medium term is going to be the U.K. and I suppose Selco specifically. Are you still confident that, that business can return to pre-COVID margin levels? And is there anything in the industry structure, the new branches that have been opened more regionally, ULEZ, anything like that, that sort of causes some concern or risks around a return to those levels of margins?

I'm happy to -- I'm confident that Selco will return to significantly higher profitability. I think the model is very sound. The value proposition is very strong. And as I mentioned, many times and also during the half year results, it has the highest operating leverage. It's a big box, 35,000 square feet. You need a lot of people to operate it safely. You can't just cut it to the bone. You want to have a good value proposition. So the change as volume coming on the top will be very significant. So I mean, look, things like ULEZ don't help, but we haven't seen significantly impact at all because of ULEZ in our numbers. So we are confident it will return to where it was.

Yes. And just sort of to add a little bit to that and to put it into the context of the sort of pre-COVID period. I mean if we look at like-for-like transaction numbers in Selco, they're down somewhere around about 10% compared to where they were in 2019. And I suspect that basket size is also probably a bit lower at this point in time in terms of actual volume of product. And I think the market will recover, we will go back to those and beyond the 2019 levels. If you recall, 2019 wasn't itself a particularly stellar year. But it's that volume and that revenue upswing and pushing it through, as Eric has explained, those big boxes, which will very quickly mean that we'll see the benefit of operating leverage when the upside returns. Aynsley?

I've got 2, please. First of all, just on the 5% forward like-for-like year-to-date, if you could split price versus volume. And then within your full year guidance, flat like-for-likes what's your expectation or assumption on price inflation versus volume?

Yes. So let's pick that one first. I mean it's difficult. The 5% we're looking at the group level. And I think probably the pieces that I would call out from that in particular would be the U.K., which is down quite significantly on a like-for-like basis in the first half. But there are 2 fundamental things that we've seen. One is price deflation has continued. And if we look at price deflation in the first 2 months of the year that Selco has seen, we're down about 4% on the same period last year. Now that probably sounds a little bit more dramatic because we are comparing what prices are now with where they were 12 months ago and 12 months ago, we were still seeing prices going up. Second half of the year, we saw price deflect towards the second half and into the second half of the year, we saw price deflation emerge more significantly. And as we talked about in the interims, that was particularly around timber. But what we also saw in some of those heavy building materials products what we haven't seen this year is we haven't seen those price rises that we would normally see coming at the start of the year. So we're not surprised by what we're seeing in terms of deflation. I mean I think outlook-wise, by the time we get to the end of the year, I think prices will be higher than they currently are. So I think we're seeing manufacturers and suppliers trying to push through some increases. I don't think they're going to be much further north, but I think there'll probably be a little bit further north. So I think deflation has been one element that we need to think about, and we wouldn't normally separately call out weather because it sort of tends to average its way out through the year. But I think it has, particularly in the U.K., had quite a profound effect on our customers' abilities to work outside because they just haven't had a clear stretch of weather when they've been able to say, well, we can start a job, and we can finish it in 2 or 3 days' time. So I think that fundamentally has affected it. But a weaker start to the year in the U.K. than we anticipated. I think when you look at like-for-likes in Chadwicks, I mean, down a little bit in the first 2 months. But again, seeing the same experience in terms of deflation, possibly even a little bit higher because compared to where we were 12 months ago on steel, that's well down now. Now I think in both steel and timber, a general comment about the U.K. and Ireland, I think actually, we're starting to sort of bump along the bottom now. I think we've seen the big declines. But we've got that big effect on inflation coming through in Chadwicks. But actually, if you looked at it in volumes, we've seen volume growth. In fact, if you look at the strength that we see in Woodie's, I think that is more indicative of actually where the underlying demand is. Ireland merchanting is much, much more influenced by price deflation. And elsewhere, I mean, Finland is down, as Eric explained, it is much weaker at the moment. But overall, in totality, January and February don't make or break our year. The big trading months are to come. We don't read a huge amount into it. We're still on track in terms of where we had expected our absolute level of profit to be, and that's very much a function of whilst the sales line is down, we've got really tight cost control. So look, I think it's sort of there or thereabouts, and I wouldn't read a huge amount into it. We need to discuss it sort of later in the year when we see more fundamentally how the trends are. Sorry, second?

Second question, just obviously, last year, lots of share buybacks, capital return that way. Lots of talk around M&A and pipeline today. Is it fair to assume that the kind of pivot will be more towards more M&A this year. Just interested in the context of the pipeline, price expectations, where you are with that kind of balance?

Look, the -- we always compare any M&A to -- is it more advantageous from an investment point of view to buy back our own shares? Or are we better off investing into M&A? In the end, we are here to drive long-term growth in the business. And as I mentioned before, we made good progress on the discussions we have with several potential vendors in terms of potential platform acquisitions. So we always evaluate the full spectrum on how we allocate the capital, but I would personally be disappointed if we don't get during this financial year, some platform acquisition over the line.

Will Jones from Redburn Atlantic. Maybe just following on the M&A theme. I think back at the half year, you talked about a wider funnel of opportunities from a product business type geography perspective. Is that funnel still as wide today? Or have you kind of narrowed back in at all on your thinking of what you like.

No, we have, in our strategy, we have clearly defined which segments we are looking at and those are the segments as we spoke about 6 months ago. So we opened the funnel and we keep on building up that pipeline and have discussions with potential vendors. But as I already mentioned 6 months ago, unfortunately, it's a process, yes. And timing depends on when the other party is ready to sell and then whether or not it's a evaluation of where we think it's actually value for our shareholders. But we're making good progress and the pipeline keeps on being as wide in terms of breadth of opportunities and sectors.

And just a second for me was around, I guess, competitive dynamics across your markets. I don't know if there's any one area you might think there could be gross margin pressure from that issue? Are there any countries you'd maybe highlight to us, I guess, the U.K. always stands out, but as we look to '24?

Yes. Look, I think we'll continue to see gross margin pressure in 2024 as a general concept in terms of particularly the distribution businesses, but maybe for slightly different reasons. I think if we look at Chadwicks, to some extent, that's been quite mix influence. I mean we've suffered from the steel and timber price deflation. That's had a bearing in terms of margin. But also when we look at the mix of customer, I think we'll continue to see growth in construction in Ireland will continue to see an increase in new homes that are built. But proportionately, the main contractors and the bigger house builders are more dominant in that unlikely to be more dominant than that in '24 than perhaps the higher-margin self-builders, smaller developers. And that's really a function of the government, which is very well placed in Ireland to continue to push money into expanding the stock of housing is focusing its EUR 5 billion into the social and affordable housing sector. Well, that means bigger schemes. When you look at the number of apartments, that's grown just under 30% in 2023. That trend is probably likely to continue and that generally is a lower margin business for us. So that's probably less around the competitive dynamic and more around the mix. I think the U.K. will continue to remain quite competitive in terms of margin. We're currently in a sort of thin volume environment. And inevitably, that means it's more competitive. But as we do start to see that volume recovery, which hopefully we start to see something come out towards the back end of the year and we're into '25 then I think we should start to see improvement in pricing, and we should start to flush out some of the negative impacts of deflation, too.

Sorry, Harry.

It's Harry Goad from Berenberg. Can you remind us what you see as the organic growth potential? I mean I guess, call it, branch growth potential within the current estate and when we get back to more normal art conditions might not be 2024, but 2025. What do you think across the array of businesses? What could the aggregated growth number be on an annual basis and where -- which particular pockets present the biggest growth opportunity?

Well, I can give you mean in the long term? Or you mean...

I'm talking branch expansion of the existing estate.

No, I understand that, but you're talking about '24 or?

Probably 2025 and beyond.

Okay. Look, If I take Selco, let's start in the U.K., I definitely believe Selco has the potential to go up to 90-ish branches. We have mentioned that before, we have a decent pipeline of branches. And as you've seen as we opened Peterborough. There are many locations if we are able to execute we will open, it doesn't matter whether we are in the down of the cycle or not, we will secure the branches, we believe in, which will have the right catchment areas. If you look at Leyland, I think the potential in inner city London is we are currently at 35 branches. I do believe we have the potential to have 50 branches in London. Our main focus [indiscernible]. It's a convenience concept. It works very well. So we'll continue to drive that. As David mentioned, I see we had 124 branches. Business makes about EUR 400 million in revenue. We believe it can increase that business by another 25% over time. We just opened a branch in fact, in Friesland in Drachten, I think you planned it, I'm not Dutch but a very nice branch. I visited just a couple of weeks before it opened earlier in -- last month. So I think we get to there. If you look at the Chadwicks' business, we opened 2 branches organically. [ Clambarice ] and East Wall road, yes? And Chadwicks would probably be more bolt-on than organic, but if we find organic locations, everything, we still can open, we will. And the same is true for Woodie's. I mean Woodie's has still a few wide gaps where we think we could open up Woodie's. However, it's all about do you get the location and the permission to actually open up a store in those particular locations where we have the gap. So we believe that every single model we currently operate has still organic development opportunities as well as some of them, we will obviously strengthen via bolt-ons if that answers the question.

Shane Carberry from Goodbody. Two for me. I'll go one at a time. Eric, you mentioned kind of strong management and cost. Can you talk about some of the levers that you're pulling there? And I suppose the balancing act with kind of cost efficiencies versus kind of maintaining that kind of industry-leading position in your markets?

I think the first thing is you have to think at the businesses, look at it, I take an athlete analogy, we want to burn the fat, but we don't want to lose the muscle. So overall, Grafton has not a lot of fat. As I mentioned before, we are very lean in the center and the businesses have run equally quite lean. However, as an athlete, you can always improve. And so we really look at efficiencies, how can we digitize processes, how can we make it simpler for stores. How can we make sure that when we deliver the staff to stores via the DC is already in the right order so they need fall it's basically delivered in a logical base so it's easier to put it into the shelves and so on and so on. So how do we take hours out of processes that don't add value and then reinvest those hours, customer-facing and banks on. So how do we improve the customer experience and at the same time, drive efficiencies. And that's really an ongoing theme in every single operating businesses. And that's really what David and I amongst, of course, develop our potential. We discuss and push the businesses in our monthly interactions -- structured monthly interaction and deep dive quarterly reviews and that will continue to happen. So that's how you have to look at the vision. So it's really efficiencies. We do on cost, of course. Grafton has always been -- how should I say? I don't use the frugal, but in terms of discretionary spend, it's not an environment where people spend a lot of discretionary money. So it's all focused, but they keep on pushing the businesses in driving efficiencies, making sure we buy the best we can, making sure that we learn from each other, implement best practices and drive efficiencies.

Personally frugal is my favorite word.

And second one, David, you kind of talked about your MI cycle and specifically there, you talked about Selco maybe being down about 10% versus '19 in terms of activity levels. How does that vary in terms of where you think we are from an normalized Selco perspective across the other geographies?

I'm sorry, across -- outside Selco you mean across the other geographies and where we sit. Against a normalized environment, I think the -- it's difficult to characterize Ireland as a normalized environment because I just see it as continuing to be quite a growing economy that's going to expand both from a housing perspective, but also I think the prospects from a demographic and income development perspective are very strong. So I sort of see that as a positive rather than a normalized environment. If I take the Netherlands, the Netherlands is going through a housing market downturn at the moment. And inevitably, that will also likely flow into more commercial elements as well. So we are maybe not be quite at the trough yet in terms of the total of the construction cycle. But we're probably not so far off it, and we should start to see a recovery. But we're certainly 3%, 5%, I would suspect, in volume activity, down from where we might regard a more normal market to be. And Finland is going through a pretty tough period at the moment. The IKH business is perhaps more balanced across a variety of sectors. It's not solely about construction, but the construction space has been quite hard hit. And I think we'd probably go back more towards sort of 2019 level. And if we were to look at activity levels there, when we -- we should be in a normal market trading at somewhere around about a 15% operating margin. Last year was more like 10%. So I think there's still scope there to see an increase in activity and with it, that recovery in its operating margin.

Ami Galla from Citi. Two questions. I'll take one after the other. First one was on current trading. Can you give us a little bit more color between Selco and Leyland that you see? I mean are there diverging trends or at all more resilient trends that you see on the DIY side of the market versus RMI at this stage?

Yes. Look, I think we do see more resilience around that Central London piece, but also the nature of the jobs does tend to be smaller and the nature of sort of Leyland's core product range is decorative products, which largely means it's inside which actually means it's going to be more resilient than what we've seen from Selco. So yes, more resilience in Leyland than we see in Selco, but we're not surprised by that like divergence.

And the twenty-one was on -- I think in the media, it was highlighted that you have now magnet concessions in Selco stores. Can you give us some color as to what's the value opportunity for Selco? And is this in all the Selco stores or is it more selectively? And to an extent, what was the sort of thought process of going with a third party and looking at concessions there?

So we do have kitchens from that supplier, which are flat pack kitchens in our Selco stores, and that hasn't changed. What we haven't had is we haven't had in the stores a department where your kitchens are designed where we have really well-trained kitchen designers who can work with the trade to have the right offering for that segment of the market. So as we don't really have in Selco that skill set, we decided to work with our suppliers, to work with Magnet and say, I don't do we have a trial and strategy is a trial where we now have a concession model in some stores. And we now will see how that trial works. We will obviously have an incentive financially. And obviously, they want to make that work, but we will evaluate that trial and then the whether it works, doesn't work and if it does work, what are the locations where we would roll it out.

So as a follow-up, is this trial across the whole Selco network?

3 branches out of the 75.

[indiscernible] Just ask two as well. First one for David, I guess, it's just only talked on OpEx, staff, rent rates, distribution ending to note there.

Yes. I mean, just to give a bit more color. I mean I think if we look at the OpEx inflation that we saw in 2023, it ran at about 4.5%. Now I think we should see that moderate in the current year. I think what we're seeing in terms of salary and wage pressures is starting to reduce from the peak. I think equally, when we look at things like energy and fuel bills. We saw a significant increase in 2022 and '23. In the current year, they might even be off a little bit. But we're talking in total across our estate in terms of gas and electricity, it's a little under GBP 20 million. So if they're off a little bit, it's sort of GBP 0.5 million, probably it's at that sort of level. But nevertheless, it's a positive given that what we're seeing in terms of inflation. I think property lease costs is still an increasing area of cost, if I looked at 2023, our lease costs went up by GBP 10 million to GBP 83 million, which was a function of rent reviews coming through some settlements of long-standing rent renegotiations, but that's probably indicative of rent inflation that's been running at sort of 5% to 7% on an annualized basis. So I think that, that probably continues. But I don't think it's going to be as high as a 4.5%. But equally, it's still likely to outrun the increase that we're going to get in top line revenue growth. And when our OpEx cost base is, well, between GBP 550 million and GBP 600 million, even 3% is going to have an impact in terms of cost of GBP 15 million to GBP 20 million.

Very clear. Second one, just going back to M&A hunt, I guess. Just wondering in terms of the competitors for potential assets. Have you seen any changes there in terms of those looking or people drop -- companies possibly dropping out just that part of the equation?

Look, you talk -- I'm assuming you mean predominantly around platforms, yes. And I think when you look at platforms at the moment, there is clearly less activity from PE and people who look at it are strategic buyers rather than PE. That doesn't mean PE has fully disappeared. And there are also PE assets of course companies which are owned by PE already have financing in place and can use the financing to make further acquisitions. So PE hasn't disappeared, but it's -- most people we see who are currently looking at assets are people which are already within the sector.

Ben Varrow from RBC. Just building a bit on one that was asked earlier in terms of the recovery to the 10% EBIT margin. How much volume would you need to see across each business to get back to that level, assuming stable prices from here?

I'm going to have to let you run that through your models on by geography in terms of what revenue growth assumptions you think you want to apply to it. We've got differential growth rates in different geographies. And I think it's really to try to unpick that. So I'm not going to look at volume recovery by business.

Okay. Is there a key market which you would see need to come through to bridge that gap mainly, for example...

Yes, look, I mean, key market is in terms of recovery and recovery scope is the U.K. If you look at March against what we would regard as targets by geography, Ireland distribution is not far off. I mean, it's a little under 10%. And we've always thought that, that was our natural hunting ground in terms of operating margin. the Netherlands, somewhere between [indiscernible], it's in that sort of territory. Finland operating margin at 10%. And historically, that's been a 15% business. So there's the opportunity there. We look at retail. I mean, retail stunning year last year. 13%. We've always said actually, we thought the natural hunting ground margin-wise, we're probably more like 10%. But I've been saying that for several years, and it's continued to exceed it. So that's probably got a higher natural margin Manufacturing business of somewhere around about 25% operating margin is probably about right. Historically, it's been around that level. So then you look at all those components and you say, well, literally not that far off in 2023. Where is the gap? And the gap is a 6% operating margin in the U.K. which its normal hunting territory would be more like a 10% operating margin. When you take the components of it, Selco should be at or around 10%. Leyland SDM is a double-digit operating margin business as is TG lines. Blair, which has a very strong position in Irish merchanting would be sort of closer to a traditional merchanting margin of a high single digit. So all those components are there, I think. So you look at that analysis and fundamentally, it's about the U.K. market, the volume shortfall that we're seeing here, impact of deflation and just that underlying macro environment. But if we get that kick up, then that's the sort of -- that's the roadmap back to where we'd expect to be.

Coming up from all sorts of angles. Clyde Lewis from Peel Hunt. Two, again, if I may. But first one is around working capital David. I mean, you didn't stick it up on your guidance, but I'd be interested to hear your thought processes around how you think stock will evolve this year and whether, again, you use that as a tool to reinforce the service offering? And would you see much, again, with sort of flat revenue broadly? Would you expect to see much movement in terms of sort of debtors and creditors?

Yes. Look, I mean, I think we flagged probably going back 12 months ago now that we had overinvested through the COVID period because of all the challenges that we've got with supply chains. Now there is some risk around the Red Sea. But in truth, it's much more manageable now. It's adding time of about 12 to 14 days in terms of getting product. So you can build a buffer of -- it's probably a few million pounds to really cover that piece off. So it's a very different scenario where we were in COVID. But we got to a point where we had deliberately overinvested in inventory. We feel more comfortable now in running that down to more normal levels. Last end of '22, we were at just under 11% of net working capital to sales. At the end of '23, we'd reduce that to 9.5%. And I think there's still opportunity that we should be somewhere between 8% to 9% net working capital investment. So I still think that we've got some opportunities. There are pockets that we know that we can -- we're now in a position, I think, to reduce that a bit. So that, I think, we'll see from a net working capital perspective, I think there's a bit of opportunity. But as ever, we just need to remain agile, constantly looking at what that horizon looks like. And the 1 thing that we will not compromise on is the capacity of our customers to come in see that there's good stock levels and be able to get what they need. It's just making sure it's all about right stock and the right level of stock.

Perfect. The second one was on CPI EuroMix. I mean anyone following the U.K. housing market and the Brit companies will have seen much, much weaker numbers in 2023. So it looks like an absolute blowout performance from that business last year. I mean it'd be interesting to sort of maybe just go into a little bit of those components. Presumably, you've taken market share, but was that business just sort of expanding into nonhousing markets as well? And again, is it sort of a lot of revenue growth, and you've done particularly well around the sort of margins and that cost recovery?

Well, yes, I'll sort of talk through the financial element and maybe Eric talks a bit about the operational side. I mean if I go back to 2022, we saw quite a dilution on gross margin as we saw very high input costs come out. And so coming into '23, we worked really hard on that gross margin element. In truth, the first half surprised us in terms of activity levels and volume activity levels. And I think it probably surprised the industry in terms of the level of build that went on in the first half given that backdrop. Some of that, I'm pretty certain was related to building rigs and people putting foundations in. But I think we got a bit of a benefit from that. But the second half was undoubtedly weaker. And there's a huge amount of operating leverage in that business. We've got a great team that operates it. That's the classic Grafton Lean Operating Model. But it's a focus on gross margin, focus on the cost base. But this year is going to be a tough year because volumes will be down. So I think they did an absolutely stunning job last year as indeed did StairBox. When you look at the volume decline, it was a record year of profit for StairBox, all about real focus on efficiencies, focus on good value product and recovery of input costs, which they were both very successful at, but it's going to be a tougher environment this year. I don't know if you want to...

I think you covered it all.

I'm sorry. Looks like a wrap. Yes. That's great.

All right.

Thanks, everybody. Thank you very much.

Thank you.