Greencoat UK Wind PLC (UKW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 30, 2026

LSE GB Financials Capital Markets earnings 54 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Matthew Ridley

executive
#1

Good morning, and welcome to our 14th half year results presentation. Thank you for joining us online today. First, some housekeeping. We'll run for around 20 or 25 minutes, and we'll allow some time for Q&A at the end. John Musk will moderate that, and the operator will explain how to lodge a question. There's a disclaimer at the end of the presentation, which we draw your attention to, but encourage you to read on your own time. So Stephen and I will now take you through the results. But before we do so, I wanted to give an overview of the areas that we'll cover and make some remarks about the market and the sector. So the first half of 2026 has shown the strength of UK Wind's business model. Operational performance has been robust with generation 4.9% ahead of budget. Cash generation has been strong, and we benefited from favorable power prices. Dividend cover was 1.9x, and we continue to strengthen the balance sheet through refinancing, which Steve will take you through and further repayment of debt. Most importantly, the company continues to generate surplus cash beyond the needs of its dividend as it has done over its life. In today's market, we think that's an important distinction, and let me explain why. In our last 2 sets of results, we highlighted the imbalance between the number of listed renewable infrastructure vehicles and the level of investor demand for the sector. We suggested that further rationalization was likely. And since then, we've seen that taking place through asset sales, strategic reviews and other corporate activity across the sector. And as those developments unfold, the distinction between business models has become clearer. We believe the strongest propositions combine 3 characteristics: an attractive investor proposition at meaningful scale, a self-sustaining model that generates excess cash for reinvestment and low execution risk. Increasingly, investors are distinguishing between companies that already possess those attributes and those that need a transformational pivot or access to external capital, significant asset rotation or other features to get there. And those features often come with significant execution risk. In our view, UK Wind has a relatively advantaged position in that landscape. We already own a large portfolio of operational assets generating cash flow today. We already have scale. We're already able to fund investment organically. We've generated GBP 1.1 billion to reinvest alongside paying GBP 1.5 billion in dividends to our shareholders. So UK Wind has a clear pathway to enhancing its future shareholder cash flows without relying on external equity or a transformational pivot or undue execution risk. Put simply, we feel that many in our sector have quite a lot to do and in some cases, with quite some risk to achieve outcomes that we already have today. And that matters because the opportunity ahead for us at least is significant. Electrification continues to grow in the UK, and that demand will more than likely be met by a lot of deployment of renewables, especially wind. And we also see increasingly opportunities within our own portfolio for us to invest in. Businesses that have capital to deploy, existing operational assets and the ability to fund investment organically are particularly well placed to benefit from that environment. We'll come back to those themes later in the presentation. But the key point is a simple one. UK Wind remains a self-sustaining proposition, capable of funding both distributions and reinvestment from internally generated cash flow. Now to the results, which Steve will talk through.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#2

Thanks, Matt. So I'll talk through the financial and operational performance of the business in this first half year period. It's been a very positive start to the period with GBP 222 million of net cash generation, which is a 36% increase on last year. That's predominantly been driven by above budget wind speeds and also some higher power prices received. Dividend cover has been 1.9x, a very solid result. And actually, with the cash already received during July, the dividend is more than covered for the whole year period, which I think is a great result for shareholders. NAV growth has been modest but stable, and we have a portfolio IRR of 11.5%, levered IRR. And that implies a net return to shareholders of above 10.5% after taking into account our fee structure of 0.8%. So where does that leave us for the rest of the year? So in terms of our guidance on the next slide, this positive start to the period means that we can be happy to say that we're on course to be at the top end of our guidance for net cash generation and the dividend to be on course to be at least 1.7x. We think that's a really good result for the business and leaves us with a significant amount of cash to deploy over the coming months. So about that cash on to net cash generation. Now UK Wind always has been and always will be a high-margin business. That means revenues are really important. And that's good news because in this half year period, revenues have been very, very strong with a 15% increase from this time last year. Again, that's predominantly driven by higher [indiscernible] generation, where we have seen a reversal of the trend from minus 14% this time last year to plus 4.9%. Higher realized power prices have also played their part. Just picking out a couple of other points on this graph would be to look at the tax position. It looks like we paid more tax in this period. And from a cash point of view, we have. But actually, this is just a result of some payments that should have been made late last year actually fell into early this year as well. The other point to note here is that you're starting to see the change in our fee structure to be on the lower of market cap and NAV starting to take account in terms of the cash savings to shareholders with a significant reduction in the fee paid to the investment manager. So moving on, we generated GBP 222 million net cash this year, and that's part of the GBP 2.6 billion worth of cash that we have generated for shareholders since IPO. And firstly, a quick observation. UK Wind has a structurally high dividend cover. That allows us to have the cash available to allocate in order to grow the business going forward. We compare this to lower dividend cover models. We don't have to go and sell assets. We don't have to place more debt. We don't have to raise equity in order to have the cash available to allocate to grow the business. We think that's a substantial advantage to the UK Wind business model. So what do we do with the GBP 222 million? Well, firstly, we paid GBP 114 million in dividends over this first half year period, and we've repaid GBP 54 million of debt as well. You can see here on the chart on the right-hand side, we've also made some share buybacks, and that basically marks the culmination of our GBP 200 million share buyback scheme. We have in place a new share buyback program, but we'll be using that more tactically rather than an enduring mechanism going forward. All in all, this means that we have an extra GBP 73 million worth of cash on the balance sheet to allocate over the coming months. So as we mentioned, a very solid 1.9x dividend cover for the period and GBP 60 million more net cash generation compared to this time last year. And the key point to really pull out on this graph is that within the business, we have around GBP 0.25 billion worth of cash to allocate going forward. We think this puts us in a really strong position to evaluate some of the investment opportunities that we see in the marketplace and which Matt will touch on later on. So moving on to the dividend track record. So earlier this year, we announced our 13th consecutive increase in inflation -- increase in dividend by inflation by 3.4%, which marks CPI to 10.7p per share. This sustained increase in dividends makes us one of a handful of FTSE 250 companies to achieve such a feat over this time period. We're really proud of that record. In addition, we have what we believe is to be a clear and unambiguous dividend policy. We increase it with inflation on an annual basis and shareholders can rely on that statement. In terms of what we paid to shareholders since IPO in terms of dividends, we paid GBP 1.5 billion and the historic dividend cover ratio has been 1.7x. And over the next 5 years from '27 to 2031, we forecast a 1.8 dividends time cover. And that will give us an additional GBP 1 billion worth of cash to allocate to grow the business. Again, we think that puts us in a very strong position going forward. So in terms of the net asset value, it's been a stable period for NAV, as we've mentioned, we're very pleased to see that, and we look forward to hopefully having NAV growth in the future. And looking at the graph on the left-hand side, what you can see here, which is part of the UK Wind business model is that the net cash generation has exceeded the depreciation and dividends in the period, i.e., we've generated cash in excess of the way that we are paying out dividends and the business is depreciating. It's a really key factor for the UK Wind business model. Looking to the right-hand side of the chart that you can see the key points to pick out would be inflation and discount rates. So quickly on discount rates, we increased these earlier in the year, and we believe that appropriately reflects the rate and risk climate for UK Wind assets. In terms of inflation during the course of this period, we've seen a spike in inflation predominantly due to the hostilities in the Middle East. As we finalized the period on the 30th of June, a ceasefire had been in place for around about 20 days. Obviously, with the news over the last couple of weeks and even this morning, that ceasefire seems to have ended. That is likely, and we agree with many market commentators to feed through to higher power prices, which eventually will feed through to higher inflation later in the year. So moving on to power prices. Just to recap the way that we come up with our power price forecast. Over the first 2 years, we use the futures market. That's the actual price that people are buying and selling power in the marketplace. You can't get a better proxy than that. After that, we bring in a long-term curve from our expert market consultant that also blends in futures pricing in the front end. So that means that it's not just a model. As you can see in the short term, power price is slightly elevated for the reasons we've already discussed. And in the long term, there's not a real significant difference. And you can see that power prices are decreasing in real terms. Now a quick reflection. Over the last 4 years, we've seen 2 significant disruptions to power markets, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the current hostilities in the Middle East. That makes us wonder whether that's rather a structural feature of the power markets rather than just episodic. And if you were to believe that and you look at our smooth curve here from the 2030s onwards, you wonder whether that's appropriate. Or put another way, will there be further price spikes in the future, which a business like UK Wind can take advantage of? Another point to point out on power prices is the active asset management that we've been undertaking. During the first half of this year, we've hedged around 1 terawatt hour of power for around about 1 year. That's about 20% of our annual merchant volume. That leaves us with fixed revenues for the rest of the year of around 66%. And actually, during the course of July, we've gone further, and we fixed another 0.5 terawatt hours or around 10% of the annual volume of our merchant risk during that period. And again, you can expect to see more of that from UK Wind as we look to continually take advantage of positions in the marketplace and manage the merchant risk on behalf of our shareholders. Last point to point out on this chart is something we always publish, which is the dividend cover sensitivity. And we think this is really important to give shareholders confidence in the dividend going forward. And you can see here that even down to prices such as GBP 30 per megawatt hour, are way below where prices are today and way below where the future prices are forecast to be, the dividend is more than fully covered. So on to wind resource. And this is perhaps the most pleasing or encouraging point of the whole half year presentation today. It really feels like there's been a reversion to the mean. We've been saying it for some time, and you can see it in the numbers here. We've been above budget this first half year period, 4.9%. And actually, over the last 12 months, we've been above budget as well. And of course, you can see the results of net cash generation that, that brings. We're very pleased with that position. In terms of availability, we're slightly below budget. We had a couple of wind farms -- offshore wind farms where availability was restricted mainly because of high winds, which meant we couldn't get out to fix the faults that were there and also an inter-array cable fault within a turbine, within a wind farm, which took a while to diagnose, procure the appropriate cables and then fix. All of those issues are now sorted. So moving on to the balance sheet and a reminder of the structure. So we have about 10% of the debt associated with our revolving credit facility, 20% associated with Hornsea 1, and amortizing debt profile there. And the rest is evenly spaced term debt with maturities that are spaced over the coming years that we believe helps derisk the proposition, both in terms of the liquidity and rate climate when we come to refinancing. We like this structure because it gives us low-cost, high optionality debt and allows us to decide how and where to allocate capital. Key highlight of the balance sheet management this half year period is we refinanced GBP 200 million of our term debt that was due to expire later this year. And we've managed to place 6-, 7-, 8-year maturities to replace that, all within the existing lending group, which we think is really positive that within our existing lender group, there's very strong support for UK Wind and its credit. And indeed, we're in discussions at the moment to refinance a further GBP 150 million due to expire in May next year, again, within the existing lending group. And you can expect to see more news on that towards the end of Q3 or early Q4. We've also repaid GBP 54 million worth of debt, and that brings the total repaid or debt principal reduction over the last 18 months to GBP 222 million, again, showing the prudent allocation of the balance sheet on behalf of our shareholders. Gearing stands at 41.7%, which is slightly above our self-imposed limit of 40%. And a quick note to say about that, that imposes no restrictions on UK Wind at all other than that we cannot draw on more debt, which is something we wouldn't look to do in the circumstances anyway. And we can see a clear glide path back to below 40% with the natural amortization of Hornsea 1's debt, along with growing the gross asset value by reinvesting excess cash flow into new assets as well. So that wraps up the financial and operational performance. And I'll now hand back to Matt, who will conclude -- will talk -- go into some more detail in his opening remarks before we move on to Q&A.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#3

Thanks, Steve. So I thought it would be a good idea just to look at the criteria that we spoke about at the beginning of this meeting and then just look at how UK Wind relates to that. So first of all, just a reminder of UK Wind's business model. It's a very simple model. It's been operational for 13 years. It's proven and it works for us. Buy wind farms, 49 of them, generate electricity and that generates net cash for our shareholders, GBP 2.6 billion so far, more than our present market cap. GBP 1.5 billion of that has gone out to our investors by way of dividend and GBP 1.1 billion has been available for us to reinvest. And all of this comes from an existing operational asset base. In effect, excess cash flow arrives by design, not coincidence. So when we think about accelerants to the capital that you can allocate, these are reaccelerants for us. Those are asset sales and capital raising. They're accelerants. They're not existential requirements for us to have capital to allocate in the first place. And just before turning to how we look at capital allocation, just a look at the next 5 years. So this is, of course, based on assumptions, and we've got a range there. But if you look at our expected net cash generation over the next 5 years, the middle of the range is around GBP 2.3 billion, again, roughly our market cap. And after paying a further CPI-linked dividend over those years of GBP 1.3 billion, that will leave us with roughly GBP 1 billion, let's say, as the middle of that range to reinvest back in the business. So I think the question for us really becomes not whether we will have capital to allocate, but how we will allocate it when it arrives. So to look at capital allocation. First, as always, as it has been since the beginning of UK Wind, the dividend, which has given us 13 years of increase by inflation or better. But in our view, an attractive dividend in today's world is not enough. Just having that feature alone just isn't enough. A sustainable dividend requires further reinvestment, and we'll look at that in a minute. And that's why excess cash generation was part of our design. The return from this business is far more important than the dividend yield. So look, we have self-sustaining cash flows in our view. We then just have to think about how we allocate that. And we'll look at in a minute the market opportunity that we have. I think you also need to think about when people are allocating capital, what risk are they taking. Fundamentally, if the pathways for Steve and I to reinvest in assets that we already understand in a growing market, we're basically just doing what we've been doing for the rest of our careers. So it doesn't require an undue amount of risk. It just requires the usual investment discipline. So just to underline the importance of reinvestment. So it's no secret that the assets that we own are finite. We think our assets will last for 30 years. And at the end of that, in our model, we don't value them at anything. So if you don't reinvest in that portfolio, then over time, the amount of free cash flow, and this is shown in the chart on the slide that you can see there, it will reduce over time. We don't think that's any kind of secret. But if you reinvest, you get a vastly different outcome. And again, this is why we were designed this way. And all the blue bar on this chart does is assume that the cash that we generate each year that isn't used to pay our dividend is then reinvested back in the business at the average portfolio discount rate. So nothing particularly exciting or racy about that. And so therefore, we've included the payment of the dividend and the reinvestment of excess cash flow beyond that. So really then the risk of reinvestment comes back to what I said earlier. It comes back to, well, are there enough opportunities in the market? And are we well placed to execute? Well, investing in wind farms for Steve and I doesn't require any sort of transformational pivot or reimagining of strategy or career. It's basically what we've been doing for most of our working careers. Just to look then at the opportunity for reinvestment. And we covered this in detail in many of our past results presentation. So electrification in the UK continues at pace, depending on which forecast you take, you're going to need another 50% to 100% of electrons over the next 20 to 30 years. It's vast. It's a huge amount. And as you can see from the chart on this page, wind is going to do the heavy lifting. It's scalable, it's deployable, and it will probably actually be more than 75% of the new electrons that are created. So that's a market that's going to go from our estimate, around GBP 100 billion of asset value today to about GBP 200 billion probably in the next 5 years. So when you grade against that GBP 1 billion that we estimate we could have to reinvest over the next 5 years, we obviously don't need to capture a significant potential of the market to be able to deploy the money that we have to reinvest. And also, we have opportunities within our own portfolio. We have 49 assets. There are a variety of things that we feel that we can invest in there. That could include the ability to extend those assets over life or ultimately to prepare some of them for repowering, although as we've said before, that isn't a one-size-fits-all answer. So really, there's plenty of opportunity for us to reinvest in. Really then it's just about Steve and I applying judgment and discipline in an area that we're very well founded in. So just to bring that to a conclusion before we open up to some Q&A. We've spoken at length before about the sector, the rationalization that's ongoing, the retirement of paper in this sector, corporate actions and so on and so forth. And we think that is fundamentally healthy for this sector. And against that backdrop, we feel that the successful propositions are going to have an attractive investor proposition of scale, a self-funding model and low execution risk. We think those characteristics matter more than ever in today's market. And crucially, these aren't characteristics that we're trying to create for UK Wind. They're characteristics that were part of our design and that we've shown we can deliver on over the 13 years that we've had since IPO. And we believe investors are increasingly making that distinction, and that's why we believe that UK Wind occupies a relatively advantaged position in the sector. Thank you for your attention for the last 20-odd minutes. We're now going to open up the line to Q&A, which John will moderate.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Joseph Pepper from RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Pepper

analyst
#5

Just 3 from me, please. You spoke about scope for reinvestments and I guess ultimately reducing gearing through NAV growth, but any excess cash that goes towards reinvestment rather than debt repayment will ultimately slow the degearing profile even if the denominator is increasing? Just curious to know how we should think about what you really see as a stable state for the gearing profile for UK Wind in the long term? And then also how quickly we should expect it to decline from here? And then the second one, linked to that, I suppose, on reinvestment. But in terms of the opportunity, it would be great to get your latest thoughts in terms of where you see the best returns are across construction, operational and also reinvestment in current assets. And then finally, this is perhaps slightly more of a medium-term question. But just thinking about the opportunity for repowering and the end of asset lives in terms of the latest thinking in terms of the IRR potential for instance, I think you've seen some projects in France that have struggled to repower due to no availability of new small turbines and then there's also been planning issues blocking larger projects and whether you think the government needs to step in order to potentially incentivize repowering projects in coming years? Or you think the economics are attractive on a stand-alone basis?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#6

Thanks for your questions, Joe. I think we've brought them all down. I wonder, Steve, if you'd like to talk a little bit first about the pathway to degearing and the importance of keeping the cash in the business and growing the gross asset value. And perhaps then I can address your questions about opportunity investments in repowering specifically.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#7

Yes, sure. So in terms of the pathway to degearing, as I mentioned earlier, Hornsea 1 has an amortizing profile. So there's already sort of an inherent process to degear the business that exists. It's around about GBP 45 million a year, give or take, depending upon the year because the profile is already sculpted. So there is that natural sort of level baseline of degearing there. And then with the excess cash that we're generating, we've talked about during the presentation, using that to grow the gross asset value is the other pathway, which we see as best fitting the strategy to degear the business. And that also has the benefit of that -- it's a growth business, and we believe that's going to help retain our current shareholders and attract new shareholders into the register who want to be part of this growing marketplace.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#8

Thanks, Steve. I mean just to add to that, we haven't been prescriptive about a target date and a target range. The reason for that is it depends pretty much on what the gross asset value is as much as the debt that you repay. And we've repaid GBP 222 million, as Steve said, over the last 18 months. Unfortunately, because you know in the last year, our NAV declined, that amplifies the percentage gearing ratio, but in absolute terms, our debt is reducing significantly. I think a sustainable pathway for the business is to get back below 40% and mid-30s to 40% as a sort of an ongoing range seems appropriate for the assets that we have. Certainly, in private markets, you could see businesses geared far more heavily than that. And we're certain that if we did change, which we have no plans to do, our self-imposed gearing limitation, the debt will be there, evidenced by the strength of our refinancing recently.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#9

And perhaps just one further point on the refinancing that we concluded earlier this year and that we hope to do a further refinancing. We have significant support from our current lender base. So the level of gearing that we have, whilst we do want to reduce, as Matt just explained, we have low anxiety about our ability to refinance going forward, and we have significant support from our existing lender group.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#10

So Joe, to your question around the opportunities that we see in the market, as you know, the sort of range of things that we can invest in our construction opportunities, and we have done that previously, standard operational assets and perhaps as this emerges a bit more, older assets that have the potential for repowering. Frankly, how we look at all of those assets is with discipline and portfolio fit in mind. So there isn't any one particular answer as to what's the right opportunity, how well it's priced and how competitive the market is. As you can see from our results, we've been quite busy appraising new investment opportunities. We haven't concluded anything yet, and that's an expression of discipline rather than lack of opportunity. So I would expect you'd be able to hear more from us on that in the next quarter. And when it comes to repowering itself, I think the first thing to say is that you can't assume that it works for every site because it won't. There are some sites where you've mentioned some of the challenges that you've experienced in other jurisdictions, perhaps -- it's about what you're trying to do. So a relatively small wind farm that isn't in a particularly windy area that perhaps the economics worked because there was a good subsidy regime at the time, and that's unlikely to be economically competitive when it reaches its life. The other thing to remember is that when you have an asset that suits repowering, you're already valuing the cash flows that stand between you and the date that you repower it. So you have to do a calculus of when it makes most economic sense. That said, what one can do is secure the option for repowering through negotiating land leases and ultimately by submitting planning applications. And this is an area where we think it makes sense for us to invest in the near future.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#11

And maybe just to conclude on that, Joe, you asked around whether the government needs to step in, in terms of helping projects to be repowered. And we've been in discussions with the government even over the last couple of weeks where this is actually on their mind, both in terms of helping assets that life extend, but also in terms of repowering as well. So I think the government has is on its radar, and we believe that the government is sensible, which we believe there will be, there will be appropriate support for both life extension and repowering of projects going forward.

Operator

operator
#12

We are now taking our next question from Conor Finn from Barclays.

Conor Finn

analyst
#13

A couple from me, please. So firstly, a question on the debt. Obviously, you've done the refinance in the period. The margin has gone up slightly. I guess the question is, what are banks saying around kind of appetite for lending, maybe, say, for longer-term facilities where obviously, there's going to be say, maybe increased merchant risk when these facilities come to maturity? And then secondly, on the dividend, if you go back to the time of launch, obviously, you're paying, say, closer to, say, 6% NAV at that time over kind of the period since then, it's grown to 8%. I guess what question would you be comfortable with that kind of rising to further?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#14

Thanks, Conor. Maybe, Steve, if you want to address the debt point and then I can come back to the dividend.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#15

Yes, sure. So as I mentioned earlier, we've refinanced this current maturity of GBP 200 million with our existing lending group. We actually have banks knocking our doors wishing to join that lending group, but we're very happy with the current lending group that we have. Margins have gone up very, very slightly. The overall cost of debt has gone up. That's more a reflection of where swap rates are, which isn't a measure of the business' risk. It's just where rates are at the moment. So in terms of the way that they're looking at the longer term and the exposure to merchant revenues, I think they're comfortable where the business is now, but it also plays into what we're talking around reinvestment. Reinvestment is key to this and managing that merchant exposure is also key as well. We've also got many tools in order to manage merchant exposure. We talked about some of them earlier today. We've hedged 1.5 terawatt hours over the course of this year to date, significantly reducing merchant exposure, but there are other mechanisms as well. So we can put in place longer-term fixes or [indiscernible]. We can enter into corporate PPAs, of which we have several in the portfolio, and you might well see us do more as current PPAs expire. And there's also, of course, reinvestment into new assets with a CFD for 15 or 20 years, which again helps manage that merchant risk in order to make sure that we've got the lenders to carry on lending like this. We have low anxiety around the position we are at the moment, and we think we've got all the tools available in order to manage the merchant risk over the short, medium and long term.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#16

And to your point on dividends, Conor. So you're right to observe where our dividend is as a percentage of NAV, but the expression of our forward comfort in that can be found in the numbers and the dividend cover sensitivity that we have. We're very comfortable with that dividend. This is why reinvestment is crucial, right? So reinvesting back in the business sensibly will grow the future cash flows, and that will support a dividend at this level.

Operator

operator
#17

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from Iain Scouller from Canaccord.

Iain Scouller

analyst
#18

I've got 3, if I may. Firstly, just on inflation, can you give us a bit more color on that because that was obviously quite a big gain. I mean how much of it was from the reporting period? How much is related to the future forecasts? And then secondly, on the NAV bridge, there's a negative 1p for other. Can you give us a bit of a breakdown on that? And then thirdly, I mean, obviously, debt remains high. I didn't see any comment on sort of potential disposals. Can you give us your thoughts on that?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#19

Yes, happy to, Iain. Thank you. So I can -- I'm happy to talk about inflation. Steve, maybe if you want to address the point on the other line on that, and then we can come to debt and disposals. So when it comes to inflation, to directly answer your question, Iain, this all comes from the next 2 years of inflation pricing, the movement. So you'll note that in Q1, our inflation assumption went up. And in Q2, it went down. The net is still up. So how do we price that? Well, we look at an RPI swap index. That's the swap that's traded frequently. We get that quote from elsewhere in our building. And we then moderate that to get to a CPI and CPI inflation expectation. We have not changed our expectations for inflation for '28 onwards, and they're all published in the half year results. So simply, the drop from Q2 versus Q1 in inflation is an expression of where expectations for inflation for the next 6 to 12 months stood on the 30th of June. And as Steve mentioned earlier, that was a more benign environment. There was a ceasefire. Power prices have come down significantly, and they're a driver of inflation. So this is really just a mark-to-market. There's no subjectivity in what we've applied. It's entirely objective. And as Steve suggested earlier, that's likely to pick back up if we see the power prices at levels that they are today sustained, and that will feed through into inflation. But that's really a matter for us to address when we get to the next valuation cycle.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#20

Okay. So in terms of the 1p of other costs, so we're constantly looking at our assumptions over the medium and long term and looking to refine those. And so this reflects the ongoing review of where we're seeing contracts where we're seeing the market. So it's principally to do with long-term assumptions around operational costs for the business that we use data that we see in the marketplace, but also try to bring in forecast as well. So we think it's a margin increase. We think it's prudent, and we think it's the right thing to do in terms of the NAV bridge.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#21

And when it comes to debt, I think there's 2 things to look at, right? So there's the gearing percentage, which is certainly a valid metric to look at and then the absolute amount of debt in the business. The latter has gone down significantly over the past 18 months, as Steve mentioned. I think the other thing to think about degearing is it's a self-imposed limit. As we've said before, banks are quite happy to lend more. And I think you raised a good point around disclosure on what that means from a financing perspective, and we've put that in our half year results. It frankly has no consequence or bearing. In fact, our lenders see us as less geared than the 41.7% because they exclude Hornsea 1 as a project, both equity and debt. So as the lenders see us, we're far less geared. We don't have, as Steve said, anxiety either about the level of debt that we have at the moment or the ability to refinance that in the future as demonstrated by this year's refinancing. When it comes to disposals, we don't see the need to sell assets to retire debt. As we said, we have a pathway over time for debt to reduce below our self-imposed limit. But even when it does, we're not particularly planning to borrow a lot more because we can sustain and fund our business through organic cash flow. So that's our approach.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#22

And frankly, the money that we have is better invested in operational wind farms than it is reducing gearing. It serves a better return for our shareholders.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#23

Or optically, we have GBP 240 million on the balance sheet. Obviously, not all that's usable. Some of that is SPV working capital and remains so, but we could optically have repaid some of the RCF and taking gearing down. But actually, the cost of that is pretty marginal to have the RCF drawn because we're earning interest on the cash that we have in the bank. So we're really only paying the margin on the RCF. And having the optionality to then have the cash to make the kind of quality investments Steve and I are looking at, we feel is a better approach from a treasury management perspective.

Operator

operator
#24

It appears there are no further questions from the conference call. I'd like to hand back to John for webcast questions. Please go ahead.

John Musk

executive
#25

Thank you. We do have a number of questions online, and I'll try and group them together. So a couple here on power prices. So firstly, energy prices have risen strongly in July post period end. How can you help us look at how this will impact cash flows and NAV? Is there a rule of thumb to use? And then secondly, how much merchant power price exposure would you be comfortable with hedging in aggregate? You used to be -- or used to talk about a 50-50 mix of fixed and merchant. Would you be happy to go much higher than that?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#26

Thanks, John. Steve, do you want to talk about a good rule of thumb for power prices?

Stephen Packwood

executive
#27

Yes, sure. So the question is absolutely right that we have seen an increase in power prices since we marked this NAV at the end of June due to the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, the unfortunate resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. In terms of a rule of thumb, if you look at the dividend cover table on Slide 11, it shows sort of what GBP 10 per megawatt hour does onto the dividend cover, and it's roughly just over 0.1x, give or take. So that's probably a good enough rule of thumb to think about that. If we were to mark the NAV as of yesterday's power prices, it would be around about 2p higher per share. So there's a lot of chop in the power prices at the moment as well. So I think you need to just monitor where things look in terms of the way that we've fixed some of those prices. We've already locked some of those in. Some of them remain merchant, and Matt can talk more about that now in terms of our long-term view of how we manage that.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#28

Thanks, Steve. Yes. So overall, our desired blend of fixed and floating cash flows on a DCF basis remains around the 50-50 mark. It obviously varies depending on what's happening to power prices. So if power prices go up appreciably as they have in the last 6 months, you naturally look as if you have more floating revenues than fixed, you haven't done anything. That's just the way that it breaks down. So we look at the hedging activities that we've entered into from a couple of perspectives. One, if there's a decent price that's available that we can take advantage of, that allows us to secure dividend cover for the year and is sensible, is NAV accretive, dividend cover accretive, then that makes a lot of sense. And that's what Steve and I have been up to. And as Steve said, there's 1.5 terawatt hours there that have been hedged since we -- since the beginning of the year. And then if you look forward, really, again, it's about balancing the revenue composition through reinvestment. Again, I think we'll probably look to the 50-50 ratio. If the circumstances are right in terms of near-term power price hedging, we could go above that. And then if you increasingly think about hedging as a way of looking at the next 2 years of exposure, you can continually refresh that over time. So fundamentally, our approach hasn't significantly changed, but our ability to be tactical and secure dividend cover on a short-term basis is something that we'll continue doing.

John Musk

executive
#29

Okay. And we have a linked question here as well, sorry. Are you seeing any change in demand from corporates looking to secure renewable power through PPAs, particularly from energy-intensive industries and data center operators?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#30

Thanks, John. Not significantly at present is the answer. I think there are a couple of push and pull and barrier factors. The first is that traditionally, those in the tech industry prefer to have brand-new projects to put long-term corporate PPAs against. That feeds into the argument around additionality is in this project now exists because of our PPA. When you have a portfolio of wind farms that none of which are new, that option is a bit less available to you. That said, we do have a number of corporate PPAs with retailers and others. So there is still a market for us that we see as good. I guess the countervail to the desire to have typically younger or construction projects is that this isn't the only route to market that a developer has, right? So you've got a pretty attractive Allocation Round 6, 7 and 8 to come. So I think you might start to see, although I'm obviously not in charge of corporate power procurement at any of these companies, you might start to see some erosion of the idea of additionality when it comes to PPAs. And given that we have significant scale, we've got roughly 2 gigawatts and 6 terawatt hours a year, that could be good for us. We are exploring further corporate PPAs to add to those that we already have in our book.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#31

And I think it'd be fair to say that whilst there's not been a pickup in demand that we've particularly noticed in the corporate and industrial demand for PPAs, there is a steady state of demand out there in the UK and that's only going to grow with the rise of data centers as the question correctly pulled up. There are a significant number of data centers in planning across the country, and that's only going to lead to a rise of power and opportunities for companies like UK Wind to take advantage of. And you only need to look over to Ireland and look at the significant growth in demand from data centers for power over there, whereas more than 20% of the annual power demand goes to data centers nowadays. That's a significant growth opportunity for UK plc and for UK Wind in particular.

John Musk

executive
#32

Okay. And moving on to some questions on investments. Can you give some more specific color and examples on the opportunity set you are reviewing, whether that be by technology or development stage? And how big a check would you write to fund them over the next 3 years? And adding one more into the mix there. Have you considered investing into batteries on-site or off-site to enable further revenue from generation during periods of low demand?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#33

Thanks, John. Steve, do you want to talk about the things we're appraising and how we're thinking about it?

Stephen Packwood

executive
#34

Yes, sure. So I mean, as I think we've already tried to outline, there's a whole sort of host of opportunities that exist. So within our own portfolio of 49 wind farms, there's opportunities to buy further stakes. There's opportunities for extensions. There's opportunity to look at repowering. There's opportunity for upgrades as well. So we're constantly looking at that portfolio, and there's definitely significant opportunity there for us. And then sort of adjacent to that is the growth in the marketplace that we're seeing. We have Allocation Round 6 and 7 that are out there, and we're talking to developers at the moment who are looking to sell such assets. Allocation Round 8 is coming up later in the year. Again, that will create a huge amount of new opportunity for us. So they would be construction or very late-stage development projects that we'd be looking to invest in. And what we really want is a blend. We don't want to go all into one or the other. We want a blend of opportunities there and invest that cash as well. You asked about the check for the next 3 years. I mean, we've talked around having almost GBP 0.25 billion on the balance sheet today and over the next 5 years from '27 to 2031, an extra GBP 1 billion, that's roughly equal. So you're talking around over the next 3 years, something like GBP 0.5 billion to GBP 600 million of cash flow that would be available to invest in such opportunities. And again, we'd like to blend that across all the opportunity sets that we see to make sure we've got the appropriate mix of investment for UK Wind and its shareholders.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#35

So when it comes to technology, UK Wind is still UK Wind. And as Steve said, there's an abundant market for us to invest in without [indiscernible] or without changing technology. I think when it comes to how one thinks about from a portfolio construction perspective, the involvement of other technologies, I think you first have to look at what does it add to what you already have to your proposition. If it's a hedge in some way, that could be appealing. So if there were a technology that was completely anticorrelated to wind in terms of its capture price and its generating profile, that would be attractive. In our view, there isn't. So there is not that. And then when you look at batteries, yes, this is a question that we face frequently. I think from a high level, it's easy to think that batteries just make money when it's very windy, and that's when wind loses value because power prices are lower because there's a lot of wind on the system. When you actually dig a little deeper, actually, there's almost no correlation between battery revenues projected both now and over the long term from a merchant trading perspective and wind revenues. This is characterized by when wind prices and capture prices are lower, it's typically for a very long period of time. And the best revenue opportunities for batteries is where there's a scarcity or a shortage of supply and a pretty significant intraday gap between the bottom and the top. Those don't really align with wind capture risk for us. So I think to answer the question, does that hedge our portfolio in some way? We don't believe that it does. Then the question becomes, is it just a good thing to invest in. And again, we look at this and say, well, I don't think there's any -- I don't have any sort of conceptual problem with batteries. I think the grid is a better place for having them. But there's also a lot of wind that we can invest in. I think the exception I would carve out is this can change over time. And secondly, batteries can make sense for any generator where they help to liberate a constraint that exists because that is genuinely lost economics that you can't get to market. But in our view, neither of those conditions prevail today.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#36

And maybe just another way of summing that up, we think that the risk return balance of wind investments is better than the risk return balance that we get from other technologies as well. And therefore, that's where we see today where we should allocate our capital.

John Musk

executive
#37

And one more on a similar subject in terms of reinvestment. Does the commitment to CPI-linked dividends over the coming years, even as ROCs roll off, mean that you are more inclined to explore reinvestment in CFD assets?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#38

To give a very short answer, yes. One can also engineer corporate PPAs that have an element of inflation inclusion. I think if you think about the opportunities that Steve mentioned, the broad stack of operational assets already have CFDs, they have CPI linkage. New projects that are being created are typically AR6, AR7 and AR8 to come, having 15 to 20 years of CPI linkage. And if ultimately, noting that, of course, it's a way away to actually repower an asset in the UK, the outcome there would likely be participation in some version of an auction round at the time, which I would expect would carry inflation, too. So yes is the answer.

John Musk

executive
#39

Okay. Noting we're getting towards the end of time. I've got a couple more questions. I'll do them separately. So the first one, there has been some political interference over the past year. How is engagement going with the revised government? And in particular, what are your thoughts around the proposed wholesale CFD and how that may impact the risk return of the portfolio?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#40

Thank you. So it's obviously early days for the Burnham government, and you have seen a cabinet reshuffle. I think crucially, when it comes to looking at designates, you now have a minister in place who's been in that department for a decent period of time, and that's definitely constructive. So if you think about what that means for the near-term policy, the things that we have on the table are wholesale CFDs, which I'll come to in more detail in a second. You have the RO fixed price certificate review and you have reform of the national market. I expect they will carry on broadly within the time frame that they're envisaged to. I feel generally no reason to believe that the new regime is going to be fundamentally different from the old regime when it comes to the way you look at power. And I think if you need any example of how renewables help with the cost of living, you should look at markets that haven't had disproportionately high power prices since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, Spain, for example, notably high renewable penetration, low dependency on marginal gas. When it comes to the wholesale CFD itself, this was, just to remind everybody, one of the 5 ideas that featured in the original review of electricity market arrangements. It was discarded. We and others have spoken extensively to government to put that back on the table because we feel it can do 2 things if it's properly implemented. First, if properly implemented, you could get a fixed price for the sale of your power over a decent period of time to give further certainty to dividend cover and have another mechanism for fixing power prices. That certainly would be a good thing for investors to have another tool to do that. And then on the other side, it's obvious that we would take a lower fixed price for removing the risk of power prices. So that can be a benefit to consumers. So this is why we believe that if it's implemented well, the wholesale CFD is a win for both investors and consumers. And moreover, it demonstrates a message that I think has gotten lost over time that renewables can actually help and do help and have helped in the peak pricing periods that we've had over the last 4 years.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#41

And new build renewables remain the cheapest form of new generation that will be needed to meet the rising demand over the coming years. Onshore wind closed in the last Allocation Round just over GBP 70 per megawatt hour. If you compare that to new build gas, it's around GBP 140 a megawatt hour. So if you want to have low-cost new generation on the system, onshore wind is where it's going to be at, offshore wind as well. And I think that's where the government will look at and they will look to continue Allocation Round 8 as they've already said that they're going to commit to. So we're pretty confident that there will be no wholesale change. And as Matt mentioned, Miatta Fahnbulleh, who's now in charge as Secretary of State for Business, we think that she is going to continue that process for the renewable energy industry.

John Musk

executive
#42

Okay. Thank you. Let's make this the last question and then if you have any concluding comments. So congratulations on a good set of results and pleasing to see a recovery in wind. But could you say a bit more about wind resource versus forecasted modeled resource over the past few years? And any thoughts around climate change?

Matthew Ridley

executive
#43

Do you want to talk about the wind over the past couple of years?

Stephen Packwood

executive
#44

Yes, sure. So as we've said consistently, there is an interannual variability of wind speeds. And you do have periods where wind is below and above the average. The last few years have seen below average wind speeds. But the last 12 months, as we mentioned earlier, have been pretty much on budget in terms of the wind speed to long-term average and UK Wind has been above budget over the last 12 months. In this first half year, have been 4.9% above budget. This is really quite normal in terms of wind speed generations. So we're not surprised by this. We hope it continues, of course, but this is really quite normal. In terms of climate change itself, we have looked into trying to forecast what climate change could potentially do to wind speeds over the medium and long term. We engaged a third-party consultant who's an expert in this last year. And we looked at a bunch of different climate models under different temperature scenarios. And effectively, the climate models come up with results which are so uncertain with such high error bars, it's difficult to draw anything conclusive today. Now we do believe that those climate models are going to get more and more accurate. So this is not something that we've put in the drawer and we won't look at again. We will continue to look at this. And as climate models improve, we think that we will be able to look at things in a more accurate way. But it's worth noting that at the moment that under certain temperature conditions as it rises, there's not a perfect correlation with wind speed. At certain temperature increases, wind speeds can go down. Certain other temperature increases, wind speeds go up. That doesn't give us enough certainty in order to be able to say this is what it's going to look like in the medium and long term. But we will remain close to that, and we'll keep the shareholders informed with our thinking and results that come up as we look at this over the coming months and years.

Matthew Ridley

executive
#45

No, I agree with that. Look, it's something that we're obviously very interested in, and we'll keep a close eye on. But as yet, the data from the modeling, there's too much uncertainty to make any conclusions. Positively, though, as Steve said, wind resources up over the past year for us, and that is part of the cycle of wind over the long term. So I'll bring this to a close now. I just wanted to conclude by thanking you for your attention during our presentation and for some very thoughtful questions. For those of you who would like to see us on the roadshow, you can contact our brokers to do that. We're around for the next 2 weeks. There's no holiday for us. And if you have any further questions or things you wish you've asked, John's contact details are on the presentation. And if you send your questions through, we'll endeavor to answer them in good time. Thank you for your time.

Stephen Packwood

executive
#46

Thank you.

Read the full transcript via the API

You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete Greencoat UK Wind PLC transcript — plus 251,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments, AI summaries and full-text search — through the EarningsCalls.dev API.

Get the API View API docs →

This call discussed

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to Greencoat UK Wind PLC earnings transcripts and 251,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.