Grenergy Renovables, S.A. (GRE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 28, 2025

Bolsa de Madrid ES Utilities Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers investor_day 125 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Ruben Gomez

executive
#1

Good morning to everyone. I am Ruben Gomez, Head of Investor Relations. First of all, I would like to say thank you to Bank of America for helping us on the organization of this event, our second Capital Markets Day. Also, thank you very much for all the attendees, both in person and on the webcast. Now let me give you a brief introduction about the agenda and the main speakers. We will start the presentation with our strong track record, strategic targets and the main key points that differentiate our company. Then we will give the strategy update for the period 2025, 2027. And finally, we will explain the financial and sustainability review. The main speakers of the presentation are David Ruiz de Andres, Chairman and CEO; Mercedes Español, Chief of M&A and Development; Daniel Lozano, Chief of Strategy and Capital Markets; Emi Takehara, CFO; and Maria Coimbra, Sustainability Manager. The intended duration of the presentation is 1 hour and 15 minutes. And after that, there will be a Q&A session. So without any more delay, please start our Capital Markets Day with the following video. [Presentation]

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#2

Good morning. Thank you. And I'd like to say thanks to Bank of America and all Juan's team. I'm very impressed by everything the way they have helped us organizing this event. Thanks very much to all the analysts. I think Daniel is more than 15, yes, or 16 and many more coming. And thanks to all the lenders, right? I think we are working with you in corporate, in project finance, in capital markets, in M&A. So we are very glad that many of you are here today. And thanks very much to all our colleagues and friends that many came overseas to this first Capital Markets Day we do in London. I'd like to -- okay, I'd like also to mention that today, we have a very special guests. Also, we have some friends coming from CATL, right, Ray, Monica and also Camilo from BYD, and they are -- we are creating a very strong partnership with these 2 companies, and I'm very glad they could come today to London. I have to say I'm very, very happy to be here today. It's been only 18 months since our last Capital Markets Day. But we really believe that the industry is transforming very quickly. It's -- and I believe the company is also transforming itself. We are creating new PPAs, negotiating the PPAs in a different way. We are closing the finance in a different way. We are delivering earlier. There are even larger projects. We are rotating assets. We are doing so many things. So I think it's great that in the 18 months, so many things have changed. And it's great that we have the opportunity to let you know. We are also very happy to have arrived at this storage revolution, we can call it, earlier than others. I think it's been more than 4 years since we developed and designed our road map for storage. I think we recruited Javier Espelta. As he's here today. He's currently our CTO, to design a road map for storage, and that's been 4 years -- more than 4 years ago. So I think being early movers in storage is really giving us an advantage. And we're going to be telling about all this during the presentation. During the presentation, we are going to review our track record. I think it's quite impressive. It's been 5 years since we went public in Mercado Continuo. It's been 10 years in we initially get -- we started life as a public company in the MAB growth. And I think the track record has been very, very impressive. So we will look at the main KPIs during these 10 years. Later, we will unveil our new targets for the period 2025, 2027, yes. We will talk a lot about BESS. I think we will look at the state of the industry. I believe. And I'd like to say insist on this, the transformation is happening way faster than expected, right? I think that even the most pessimistic already recognize that batteries and specifically lithium batteries are going to play a fundamental role in the coming years. CapEx is not even as expected such a sharp reduction and such quick increases in efficiency, right? And I think in the last Capital Markets Day, we were talking about an all-in price of around $200. We will look at that in one slide. And now we are talking about getting very close to $100,000 per megawatt hour. So that's very impressive in less than 1.5 years, right? We will speak a lot about our -- the update of our strategy. I think this will be the most important moment of the presentation. We have divided in 3 sections. I think all of them are very relevant. And firstly, Mercedes will review our strategy on hybrid plans. We will update the situation of Oasis of Atacama. I think it's quite impressive what we're doing. We introduced this project to you in the last Capital Markets Day, again, only 18 months ago, in November, not even that. And well, we have doubled the size, even triple the size. I think I'm not making the [indiscernible], but I think it's very important to understand how quickly we are executing, we are delivering, we are financing more than EUR 1 billion in project finance, more than EUR 1 billion in asset rotations already, and this is just the beginning, right? And we will introduce you to the new hybrid platforms in Central Chile and in Europe, in Spain, okay? Then we will speak about retail, our retail unit, [Foreign Language] in Spanish, GR Power, how we are approaching 24/7 PPAs for the first time, how we are developing this retail unit and why we believe and we said it was modest it that we are creating the most emerging challenger to the current incumbents in the retail in Chile, right? And this is GR Power. We have been talking about our retail unit for a while. We will keep talking every quarter, but definitely, it's going to play a very important role as offtaker of some of our projects and all thanks to BESS, again, because for the first time, we are able to compete and we are able to close 24/7 PPAs like the one we just closed with Codelco for 0.5 terawatt. And for the first time, we can compete in nearly every unregulated client. And that really makes a change. And finally, one of the highlights of the presentation, we will introduce our stand-alone pipeline for the first time. We've been working very hard the last 3 years in this pipeline, in some cases, under the radar. But for the first time, we are -- okay, we're explaining and we're disclosing our pipeline of stand-alone, right? And in particular, our European platform, which we are calling GreenBox. At the end, okay, we will -- I will give the floor later to Daniel, and we will dive into the numbers. That's a very important part of the presentation. We are going to explain how we are going to fund everything. We're going to give a lot of details about our financial and asset rotation strategy and expected IRRs and many more details, right? And I think this is a very important part of the presentation, right? And finally, Maria will wrap it up with our very impressive achievements on ESG and the situation of our road map, our ESG road map. So many things going on. I think it's a very exciting moment and so many things that are happening so quickly. So let's kick off with -- well, obviously, I love this slide, I started up this company in 2007. I think we're turning 18 this year, right? But I believe here, we are showing the last 10 years, right, since we went public, our initial IPO in 2015 until the results of 2024. So this -- the last 10 years, then we're going to look at our targets for the next 3 years, right? Well, we started up as a solar company. I think it's very relevant to say that we -- at one point, and you can see that in 2019, we were also trying to get into the wind space honestly, and we always say that other companies were doing better than us. We didn't think that we were going to make a difference. Already, we were looking at storage, right, in some way it was coming. So we decided that, okay, let's not develop and build wind anymore, right? I mean the last 3 years, the transformation has been awesome. I mean we have firstly introduced the hybrid plans, right, like Oasis of Atacama. And now we are developing stand-alone plants. We're going to be telling about that. And I think there are very few markets, I would only say maybe some parts of the U.S., maybe in the Southeast and maybe Colombia to some extent, where we are still developing and building purely solar plants. So in the future, we don't foresee a plan just solar stand-alone, but always with some degree of hybridization. We started up as a company in Spain. We moved to Chile in 2012. Currently, we are a company in 3 regions, right, with headquarters in Madrid, for Europe, right, with very strong local teams in every market where we are. We also have headquarters for Latin America in Santiago de Chile. And we are -- in the U.S., as you know, we put sales a small developer in Alabama, in Birmingham, and this is where we are running business. From there, we are focusing in Southeast and in ERCOT, right? I'll give you more details. If you look at the pipeline and well, we had a pipeline when we went public, and I see some faces here that we are that day there, right, 10 years ago. We had a pipeline of 300 megawatts. This is what we build now in 1 quarter, right? So that gives you an idea of how the industry and the company has changed, right? We currently have 12.5 gigawatts of solar, and we have 78 -- close to 80 gigawatt hours of pipeline of storage, right? That's counting stand-alone and hybrid projects. If you look at this, this is more than 40x what we had in 2015. And not by chance, if you look at other KPIs like equity, the equity is 40x bigger at the end of 2024 compared to 2015. The EBITDA per year is 4x larger in 2024 than it was in -- and even market cap, so not by chance. I think the lesson we are learning here is, okay, we work in the long term. At the end, the value of the company has a reflection. So it's -- we have also increased our CapEx year after year. It's very important, this KPI we insist here because the CapEx we are investing today is the EBITDA of tomorrow, right, whether it's in asset rotations or whether it's IPP. So I think we are looking at this KPI more and more, right? Looking at the employees, and it might sound like a cliche, but I think it's a very, very important part of the company. We have -- well, we have jumped from 50 employees, 150 employees when we were listed in the Mercado Continuo. And well, we have multiplied by 12, the number of employees. It's more than 600 right now. Look at the increase in productivity, right? I mean with 12x more employees, we are -- have multiplied the rest of the KPIs by 40. So this is because we are building and developing larger, bigger projects, right? So that's also an important KPI for us. We are very proud of our achievements in these 10 years. I think no other company has achieved in Spain this revaluation, right, well, jumping from EUR 35 million as initial market cap to EUR 1.6 billion, where we are now. Targets, okay, where are we going from here, right, next 2 years? And I'm going to compare with the previous targets that we shared with you in the previous Capital Markets Day. We -- well, our plan for 2027, and that's 2.5 years from now, it's not that far away. So we're talking about having a gross delivery of 4.4 gigawatts of solar. That's slightly lower than what we announced in the previous Capital Markets Day, which was 5 -- but look at the target for storage. That's 18.8 gigawatt hours. That's nearly 4x what we announced in the previous Capital Markets Day. Why is that? Okay, we are investing more, but we believe we can get higher returns in storage, whether it's stand-alone or whether it's hybrid than the one we get in purely solar plants. So that's basically why this KPI has changed. The difference you see between net and gross accounts for the asset rotations, right? I think Daniel will give you a lot more details. Talking about asset rotation, asset rotation, we gave a guideline in the last Capital Markets Day of EUR 600 million in total proceeds, right? And we achieved these targets 2 years in advance. So at the end of last year, with projects already -- deals already executed and deals already closed with binding agreements, we had already achieved this EUR 600 billion. The new target we are giving for '25, '26 and '27 for 3 years is EUR 0.8 billion. So I think, again, and Daniel will give you a lot more details. And talking about the gross CapEx, it's EUR 3.5 billion. That's the target for the next 3 years, but including 2025 already. And I'd like to say, okay, if you look last Capital Markets Day, we said that 1/3 of the investment was going to be BESS, 2/3 is going to be solar, right? And right now, it's the opposite. It's going to be 2/3 BESS, 1/3 solar. Only 3 years ago, we were not doing BESS at all. So that gives you an idea of the profound transformation that we are having, okay? Talking about EBITDA, well, that's the run rate. We will give you more details. That's the range we are giving for the end of 2025 as pro forma, right? That's run rate EBITDA. Okay. You will look at the platforms. I think we're going to give some guidance of the ranges of EBITDA platform by platform. And we are also considering our first stand-alone plants in our Greenbox platform, right? So that's only the energy business, not including asset rotation. Okay. And we're going to talk a lot during this presentation about BESS. We're going to tell you -- okay, having recognized this opportunity, I think, before others, right, that has put us in an extraordinary position to accelerate value. And I believe it's going to pay off for us. So okay, we're very fortunate to have very close partnerships with some suppliers. We are very glad also to have some European partners in inverters, converters like, power electronics, in team. We have a very strong industry of tracking systems in Spain, in Europe as well. But obviously, now the -- our partnerships with companies like BYD and CATL, it's critical, right, for us. And we believe that innovation is coming mainly from these companies right now. And we want to partner with the best, right? That's the reason we are -- so far, we've worked only with BYD and CATL. I'm going to read -- since some of our colleagues of CATL and BYD are here, I'm going to read some facts about these 2 companies, okay? BYD, it's a global powerhouse in electric EVs, you know. In 2024, for the first time, BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer. They're delivering over 3 million vehicles globally. And in -- well, in April this year, last month, for the first time, BYD overtook Tesla in Europe for the first time, yes. The global EV market share of BYD is 17.2% in 2024. That's global numbers, right? And well, given other KPIs, the cumulative battery installations has reached 195 gigawatt hours in 2024. And well, I think you all read about the new platform that enables supercharging, delivering 400 kilometers of range in just 5 minutes, market cap, $160 billion, 29,000 patents, right, 45 patents per day, and this is BYD. CATL is the world's largest battery manufacturer, 38% share of the global battery business, 38%, I said, well. And it was the first company to surpass the 300 gigawatt hour. The company just went public in Hong Kong 2 weeks ago. And well, it has a market cap of $180 billion, more than $180 billion, more than 30,000 patents. So it was very inspiring to meet -- have the chance to meet with Robin Seng, the founder and largest shareholder of the company 2 months ago in China. And well, again, this is a long-distance race, and we just want to work with the best and have them join us in this fantastic story. So once again, thank you very much, guys, for coming and here today. Looking at PPAs, well, we have been pioneers. And again, Emi will give you plenty more details. We've been pioneers in signing hybrid PPAs considering BESS and for the first time baseload PPAs, I think we can give you a lot more information, again, based on BESS. We have already closed financing, okay. One of the main concerns when we were approaching the first project financing was, okay, are we really going to get leverage, the same levels of leverage we are getting? And the answer is, okay, it's yes, not even that. We brought 10 international banks for our first financing in Oasis of Atacama, which is quite impressive, included Bank of America. And I think Emi will give you plenty more details. M&A, we closed the largest M&A deal ever closed in BESS, right? That's very impressive with KKR. As you know, we signed and announced in December. And again, I think this is just the beginning. And I want to stress the great capabilities we have in construction, right? No other company is building BESS the way we do it as quickly as we do. We are delivering already. We have 6.7 gigawatt hours already in operation and under construction. This is just to give you a perspective, I think what has been built in Old Britain, right? Obviously, less, but in terms of gigawatt hours. So it's quite impressive what we have been doing and what we're achieving in the north of Chile. Well, you are very familiar with this slide. It's a classic slide of Grenergy. We've been very transparent, right? And we've been always quarter after quarter updating. And you can look at the trend of the solar installations, right? We are -- I think it's quite stable now, record low levels, but we believe it's going to remain stable, yes, up to 2025. And -- but look at the graphic showing you the hybrid and the stand-alone CapEx, right? This is what we announced at the end of 2023 in the Capital Markets Day, again, EUR 200 million, EUR 230 million. The difference between the top and the graph in the bottom is just stand-alone, we need slightly extra for developing the projects by themselves, and we need some extra for interconnection line. Apart from that, they are very similar CapEx. And look where we are now, what we are expecting is half what it was only 18 months ago. So that's very impressive. And okay. I think during the drink later, you can ask the guys who CATL and BYD, what's their opinion on how this could evolve in the future. Very important moment of presentation, right? We are -- for the first time, we are displaying -- we are disclosing our stand-alone pipeline, and that's very important for us. I think we have been working very hard. It's -- I think for the first -- from now on, you will see this stand-alone pipeline together with our solar and our hybrid plants. And in particular, in Europe, right? We've done big effort to try to get the best stand-alone plants in Europe. And we believe it requires a different focus, and that's why we are announcing today the GreenBox platform. We'll give you more details later in the presentation, right? Talking about the Americas a little bit more. Yes, there will be, I'm sure, some questions about the U.S. The U.S. is living -- well, as you know, we are in 2 markets. We are just in the Southeast, and we are in ERCOT in Texas, mainly. This is our focus, such a big market. And we're living in the paradox that on one side, we have never seen this unprecedented demand of energy. It's extremely unbelievable. We have never got RFQs coming from the hyperscalers and from the large utilities in the Southeast with such numbers of terawatt hours, right? The data centers and especially driven by AI, they need plenty of energy, but rules are not clear. It's obvious regarding IRA and tax incentives and regarding tariffs. So I think it's time to hold on a little bit. Okay, we have 3 projects in advanced development. We are advancing with them. We will announce PPAs very soon. But I think for the rest of the pipeline, we need to make sure the rules are somehow clear, right? And again, I think the perspectives will be fantastic once this gets clarified. And in Latin America, we're going to be talking a lot about our platforms in Chile. But okay, we also have some activity in Peru, where we rotated very successfully some plants, if you remember last year. But we have another 2 projects coming up in advanced development. So we're looking at these markets maybe Peru, Colombia are more build-to-sell markets for us, but we are looking for opportunities. And Colombia, we keep building. Small plants, distribution plants, and we will -- you will see some rotations during this year, right? And well, in Mexico, we have an operational plant, San Miguel de Allende, 35 megawatts. And we are developing a portfolio. We believe there will be a fantastic opportunity for storage as well in this market. I'm going to give the floor to Emi. Thank you.

Emi Takehara

executive
#3

Thank you, David. So now -- hi, everyone. We're going to talk about -- a bit about our business model. Many of you know the business model, but we think that it's important more than ever to highlight the strength of our business model in this very, very competitive environment. When we are asked what is truly setting us apart from competitors, we always refer to our vertically integrated business model because we truly believe that we created synergies, and this business model has helped us to scale the business very rapidly. Vertical integration means that we always think with an owner-operator mindset, and there's a clear rule. We don't work for third parties. Our track record in development is astonishing. David mentioned the figures, 12.5 gigawatt hour of solar PV pipeline and more than 78 gigawatt hour of BESS pipeline. We have been able to grow this pipeline globally, entering new markets. We also have in-house construction and operation. This is very important. It's a pillar of our business model, and it's often forgotten. We have built more than 100 plants worldwide. And what's really more relevant for investors today is the volume. We are building currently 2.6 gigawatt of solar and 6.7 gigawatt hour of BESS. Why is this so important? Because we have reached such a high scale, such a high volume that we are positioning the company as one of the largest -- the world's largest BESS contractor. And it's going to be much easier to grow the business from there with this solid vertically integrated business model. There are 3 clear advantages. One is control over the supply chain. We don't need to rely on third parties. We usually build the plants much faster than other EPC contractors. Second is control over costs. We have, as David said, one of the lowest CapEx and OpEx in the industry. And this is very relevant to drive profitability and higher IRRs. And finally, flexibility. Flexibility to enhance our construction capabilities worldwide to jump to build projects in one country and then another, but also to build our in-house expertise across technologies. And I believe this is very relevant as we will be operating our best platforms very shortly. This vertically integrated business model is supported by 3 pillars: PPA, energy management, my director is here today, M&A and finance. So I will start with PPAs, which are truly the backbone of the business model. We have been evolving changes shifting the business model from solar-only PV to hybrid PPAs and more recently to baseload PPAs. So starting with solar PPAs, we have had one of the strongest track record, the highest in the industry, both in Europe and Chile recently, 2.6 terawatt hour per year of solar PPAs -- PV PPA signing. More recently, we announced new solar PPAs in Chile for more than 400 gigawatt hour per year at very attractive prices in the mid-30s range. And this will enable us to expand our platform of projects in the central part of Chile. These are unique PPAs. And the business case to add storage to -- sorry, to add storage to PV was clearly years ago. And we have been won a first mover of the first mover in the market by signing the first and largest hybrid PPAs in the market in Chile for 1.1 terawatt hour per year for Phases 1 to 4 of Oasis Atacama. These PPAs are landmark PPAs for Chile, for the company and are truly showing that our business model works and that our ability to innovate and change the market dynamics is really outperforming our peers. But we have not stopped there. The next step was to be able to deliver competitive clean energy 24/7 to major offtakers. And we have been successful once again, 0.5 terawatt hour per year baseload PPAs achieved with one of the world's largest or the world's largest copper producer, Codelco. This was done with our retail business unit, GR Power that David will present later. This is not just a partnership. It's truly remarkable that we are leading a transformation in the energy landscape in Chile by being able to deliver the most competitive clean energy 24/7 to some of the largest industries. And beyond mining, with companies such as Codelco and BHP, which have very large CapEx commitments in Chile in the coming years with energy demand expected to be higher than 30%. There are a lot of other sectors. As David mentioned, data centers, which have been booming in the U.S. have also -- are also booming in Chile and the likes of Amazon are expected to spend more than USD 4 billion in the very short term in Chile. So very solid market dynamics. And lastly, I think it's important to mentioned that we remain -- we maintain a very low-risk profile with a highly -- high percentage of contracted revenues. Our track record is impressive, 4.2 terawatt hour of PPA signed since 2019. This is close to EUR 3.6 billion of contracted revenues. And we expect to maintain a high percentage of contracted revenues in the future. So the second pillar that I mentioned is M&A. I will go quite quickly, but M&A is truly one of the core funding strategy of the company. We have been rotating assets every year. And over the past -- since 2017, we have rotated 65 projects with an average valuation of 1.5 enterprise value to invested capital, which is remarkable. It's true that we have also, as David explained, achieved our targets '23, '26 of EUR 600 million proceeds 2 years in advance. And this is thanks to very large deals, as you can see, I&CQT for EUR 0.5 billion enterprise value in '23 and more recently, the very large USD 1 billion deal that we sold to KKR on Control Global for Phases 1, 2 3 of Oasis Atacama. This acceleration in asset rotation enables us to present more ambitious asset rotation targets of EUR 800 million, and we're quite confident, as Daniel will explain later, that we will achieve this because more than 50% of this target is achieved or advanced. So we've talked a bit about the PPAs, about M&A. And lastly, I wanted to reinforce a message regarding the stability and diversification of our funding strategy. It's true that we have been growing very fast over the past 10 years since I joined the company. And we learned some lessons, but what's clear is that our very disciplined funding approach has paid off. And we believe that we are in the best position -- better positioned than ever for the next phases of growth. We have achieved in just 1 year, as David mentioned, USD 1 billion of project finance deal in '25. That is more than what we have achieved over the past 5 years. We have been able to close 3 transactions in just a year with 5 top international banks, BNP, Natixis, SocGen, SMBC and Scotia. But what's also relevant is that we have been able to work with them with the [indiscernible] banks to bring new entities so that the leading banks could reduce their risk and also it's showing that there is a strong appetite to enter the market now in Chile. The likes of Bank of America, BBVA, Bank of China and more recently, we welcome new banks such as JPMorgan, [ Rabobank ], ECO and KW. So the message I just want to send here is that there's never been more appetite to finance our pipeline globally. On the corporate side, we have a very diversified funding strategy. On the equity side, you'll know that we successfully have done 2 capital increase for close to EUR 200 million in '21, '22, and the equity markets remain very supportive with one of the best stock performance in the industry. On the fixed income side, we have also access to the [indiscernible] market. We're a regular issuer in the CP market with EUR 150 million program. We have issued the first green corporate bonds at very low coupon. But in '23, when interest rates went up, we decided to change the strategy and move away from the [indiscernible] to sign a very large deal of $156 million with Santander. And this deal was very relevant. It was backed by export credit agency, CESE at an all-in cost below 5%. So our cost -- our corporate cost of funding is very competitive. What can you expect for the future? Well, we'll continue to find the most competitive debt solutions, both with our pool of lenders, the capital markets. And we believe that our relationship with state-owned entities such as such as Cynosure, which we recently visited in China and ICO can offer also very interesting funding options for the next phases of growth. On the share buyback, as you know, we have been purchasing shares every year since '23 -- and Daniel will explain how this is totally integrated in our business plan with close to EUR 100 million expected to be allocated to share buybacks in the coming 3 years to support the shares when there's an opportunity. So just as a conclusion on that, on the business model, I think that we have proven that our business model is very efficient, it's predictable and reliable. And our first positioning in BESS is truly happening right now through our project finance or M&A and showing that we can deliver and that growth is around the corner without compromising on a very, very conservative and disciplined funding approach. So to talk about growth, we'll now move to the strategic update where Mercedes will present the Oasis platforms and David will present GR Power and GreenBox strategy. But before that, a short video. [Presentation]

Mercedes Español Soriano

executive
#4

As David said, you made a lot of spoilers, except for a few markets in Latin America and the States, all our ongoing and future PV projects will incorporate BESS from now on. So depending on the country and the project, of course, we will have 2, 4, 8 or even more hours, but always adding storage. We are adapting to the energy market and adding stability and management to solar. This is crucial to compete much better, of course, with other energies. So we are taking the opportunity to co-locate all our projects, including the operational ones and that creating a brand-new product in the industry. So the story started with Oasis of Atacama, our big flagship project. I'm sure that all of you are now very familiar with it. We introduced it, as we said before, 18 months ago in our last Capital Markets Day. And as you can see in the slide, the evolution has been absolutely outstanding. We have doubled the size of the PV going from 1 to 2 gigawatt and almost tripled the size of BESS going from 4 to 11 gigawatt hour. This was basically through the purchase of Elena and Antofagasta to Repsol and Ibereolica, which was our largest buy-side M&A deal to date. So we have secured funding, as Emi has said, for the first 4 phases, performing a closing in only 6 months and introducing international banks to overnight PPAs. You mentioned, Emi, the 5 banks. But not only this, we have had a successful sitigation with the entrance of large international banks such as you mentioned, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Bank of China, BBVA, [indiscernible] and Rabobank. So this is more than 10 banks that entities trusting and supporting OICs. So in terms of PPAs, we have contracted most of the phases, and we are in progress of securing the rest of them, of course, with all investment-grade offtakers. And regarding execution, it is very important to highlight that we are not only delivering on time, but even earlier than expected, something which is very remarkable. Quillagua Phase 1 is now connected and Phase 2 also, it is currently under testing. And the same for Victor Jara. We are expecting to have mechanical completion towards the end of the year. So both projects will be delivered around 2, 3 months in advance than foresee. And Gabriela seems also to follow the same path. So we foresee that we will deliver the project even before 2026. Our effort in logistics has been huge. For the first time, we are hiring entire vessels to carry the batteries from China to Chile. So we can almost say that we have our own carriers. And to give you an idea of the volume that we are moving, we are booking a boat every 4 to 6 weeks. So you are all aware that Phases 1 to 3 were sold to ContourGlobal last year. It was, as David mentioned, a very remarkable deal. We had a competitive process up until the end, which is not common. And we did the signing and closing in December 2024 for almost $1 billion. This is including, of course, earn-outs that we foresee to be obtained, thanks to the fast execution that we are having on site. So as a summary and having rotated the 3 first phases, the overall revenues for Phases 4 to 7, Gabriela, Algarrobal, Elena, Antofagasta will be higher than $400 million a year with an EBITDA close to $350 million and a project IRR way higher than initially expected. So as you see, we are doing a much bigger platform, executing earlier and what is most important, having way higher returns than expected. Some milestones since our last Capital Markets Day during years 2024 and '25, we have onboarded different parties as CATL and BYD with strategic supply agreements as we, of course, prioritize to rely on Taiwan suppliers. So first, hybrid PPAs in the market, huge interest from financing and investors and a real delivery. So how -- our hybridization story started in Atacama. But of course, a successful story must be replicated, and this is what we have done, a little bit south, what we have called Central Oasis. So this is our second hybrid platform in Chile. You already know some of the projects, Teno and Tamango already constructed and connected. And we are in process of hybridizing both of them with BESS. And then we have completed the platform with Planchon, Monte Aguila and Sol de Caone, these last 2 much bigger projects with 340 megawatts and of course, all co-located projects. We have recently announced new PPAs of 390 gigawatt hours, thus reaching a total of 0.7 terawatt hour contracted plus our last 500 gigawatt hour tender awarded with Codelco. This was the first time in history that Grenergy closes a PPA with a mining company. So in overall, and we're talking about a platform with more than 2 terawatt hour of production, where we are moving around 1.2 to 1.3 terawatt at night. We have already contracted 0.8 terawatt of solar and around 1 terawatt hour night or 24/7. So we are at this stage, securing financing for the hybridization of Phases 1 to 3, including the full construction of Planchon. And we are about to mandate banks for this package and then foresee to have the whole platform executed within the next 2 years. Rough numbers, the platform will generate revenues for more than $200 million and around $160 million of EBITDA with an IRR between 11% and 30%. So important milestones already mentioned during the last 3 years, we inaugurated the first phase Teno with a big support of authorities and communities. And well, of course, the PPA signed with Codelco. This is the first time we have made a way ahead of other competitors in the mining industry in terms of supply. So very important milestones. And first orders of batteries will be also confirmed within the next weeks. So Central Oasis is a reality and underway. So as you can imagine, by now, this does not end here. So we believe that Spain is very -- has very similar conditions and same yield as Central Oasis, and we thought that this was the perfect place to replicate. So where the need for BESS to achieve a bigger penetration of renewables is now more clear than ever with the hybridization of our first project, Escuderos, we are laying the foundations for our future Iberian Oasis platform. So here, you are also familiar with the project. It's a PV in operation since 2021. We have been working very deep during the last year in the hybridization and structured it in 2 phases. It has a total of 200 megawatts of PV and 700-megawatt hour of BESS. We will be also supported with a EUR 7 million grant from Next-Gen funds. We are also working in several options in terms of overnight contracting. And hopefully, we'll have very soon our flagship hybrid PPA of our future Iberian Oasis. So Phase 1 will be fully executed as early Q3 next year. and will definitely our first large hybrid project in Spain and hopefully, the pioneer of many. So I give the floor back to David now to present GR Power. Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#5

Again. Before we speak about one of the highlights of the presentation, which is GreenBox platform, right? I'm going to talk a little bit about GR Power, right, which is a retail unit a little bit more just to explain you more details about our strategy. This is -- we like to show how -- well, the size of the market and parities in Chile. We're talking about a market of 80 terawatt hours. It's roughly half the size of Spain. And Well, we are expecting the market to jump from 80 terawatts to roughly 95 in 2030. The market is dominated by 4 major companies for incumbents. As you can see, you've got Enel, Engie, Colbun and AES Andes as the major players. And well, I think in this retail, 4% is where we currently are. But again, I think we are one of the largest emerging players in the market. And for the first time, we are getting demand -- new demand from mining and data centers, right? I think -- we -- this estimates, if you look as Emi was mentioning, the data centers are booming, there have been new announcements. So we honestly believe that this figure will be way higher. So it's a fantastic opportunity for us. We already -- we've been 5 markets, 5 years in the retail segment. We already have, I think, 140 clients. We just got the PPA from Codelco, which is a very important milestone for us. And well, the perspectives are that as early as 2027, we are planning to get close to 3 terawatt hours. So that will be having more than 5% of the retail market in the country as early as 2027. That's, I think, we try to explain here how the traditional IPP model works where, well, you've got one project, you've got one offtaker, you just make the match and then you go for project finance and then that's it, that's the way it is. Well, and that's the utility model, right, where GR Power is operating, where you might buy energy from different projects. Most of these projects are green energy projects. We might have other offtakers as well as in [indiscernible], but also we are selling energy to our retail unit. And we can also buy energy from other companies, right? And we are selling energy to mining, data centers, corporates. I think there are more than 3,000 unregulated clients in the market. So I think it's a very interesting business model, the one we have. We have no legacy like other companies from thermal plants. So we can design and we can buy exactly the energy we need and the best we need. And once again, the storage is helping us for the first time to be able to compete in any client with any profile in any part of the country. And moving to GreenBox. I think there is a video. [Presentation]

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#6

Okay. GreenBox is, let's call it, our new baby. We get very passionate about new stuff, right? I -- we were working very hard. And sometimes in the last few years, I've always been telling the team, the glory has been going to Oasis of Atacama. But if you ask me, the -- I mean, if we were -- I always give this example, if we were in Apple in 2007, this would be our iPhone really. It's really what is about to transform the company. And I think sky is limit the possibilities are endless, right? And we've been working very close. And for the first time, we are disclosing our strategy. And we believe that the potential of GreenBox is really, really huge. Well, first, let's start why storage once again, will help the systems and why stand-alone makes sense. It's given -- it helps to integrate more renewable energy in the systems. is obviously given helping grid stability. I'm sure there might be questions about blackouts and all that, right? It's really -- I think storage helps in many ways, right? And we can elaborate more on that. We can access many markets, we can restore power faster versus other technologies. So I think the benefits for the grids are huge, not just trading energy between day and night, but also providing other revenue stack to the networks, right? And energy management. We are becoming -- before we were a company like other renewable energy companies that we were just generating energy, delivering that energy to the grid, that's it. But now we need to start managing that energy, right? We need to make sure this energy gets managed -- and that's going to involve a lot of AI and a lot of market intelligence. We are going to create central control for the first time. We're going to be working very closely with optimizers in some markets. So it's a whole new world. So that's why we believe that GreenBox requires a specific focus. Well, this is -- we show here some estimates. I honestly think these are very conservative. I think the one on the left is coming from McKinsey, the one on the right from Bloomberg. if -- just to give you an idea, look at Chile, the case of Chile, saying only Grenergy, which is roughly doing 50% of what is happening in BE in the market right now, we're going to do like 15 gigawatt hours out of a total of around 30. That's our estimate. Estimates 1.5 years ago for many consultants were about 4, 5 gigawatt hours. So this gives you an idea of how the industry -- everything is happening way faster than initially expected, right? Our estimation for Europe as early as 2030, and I'm jumping into this slide, we are estimating a potential of 300 gigawatt hours of operational stand-alone plants in Europe, right, in the 6 markets where we are, which are except for France, we are in all the major markets. And GreenBox pipeline accounts for 35 gigawatt hours, right? We are saying that -- we are not saying that we will achieve a share of 50% as we are doing in Chile, obviously. But believe me when I say that we will try our best to get the highest share -- market share in stand-alone, right? And again, time to market is very important. And the sooner we can execute, I think the better, right? This is the potential market by market. Well, again, we are giving an estimation in Spain for 25 gigawatt hours. I really believe it's going to be more with my expectation. This is just stand-alone, but then you will have hybrid, right? I look at the great potential of Germany. We believe it's going to be the largest market in stand-alone BESS by far. Going -- well, we've tried to summarize, we could be hours talking about the different markets, the different services that a battery can provide to the grid. But our focus is going to be on tolling agreements. I mean we're going to be following similar strategy than we followed, I think, quite successfully with PV. Yes. There might be some upside going merchant or being merchant the very few quarters or leaving merchant exposure, right, and approaching all these markets, which is a bit more complex than we were doing in PV. We will be working with optimizers, but the key point in our strategy that it will be tolling agreements. So we are happy to clarify any doubts. But in general, it's going to be the same approach that we'll be having. We are trying to secure our revenues the longer, the better. And I think in the next few months, we will be announcing very frequently our first tolling agreements, which are PPAs for storage in -- I think we will start in Spain and Germany as the first market where we might close the agreement. This is the pipeline. We like to be very transparent. We like to increase. We have again, 35 gigawatt hour of pipeline. And our target for 2027 operational plans, we are talking about just 3 gigawatt hours, right? That's considering in Europe, we are considering normally 4 hours, right? But -- so this is going to be coming. I believe it's a very realistic target. And I think it's -- if you look at the pipeline, it's pretty well divided between Spain, Italy, U.K. We've got 4.5 gigawatt in Spain. This is our own stuff, right? It doesn't mean that our M&A team can find some and work on the buy side and we're finding projects for other developers. But this is what we are developing in-house, 4.5 gigawatts in Spain, 5.8 in Italy, 4.6 in the U.K. Most of the U.K. team could -- some of our colleagues could come here today, here today with us. We are 7 gigawatts in Poland, 6.4 in Germany and 6.6 in Romania, right? So I think it's a very well-balanced portfolio of projects. And out of these 35 gigawatt hours, we want to introduce today our first flagship project that we will be executing very soon. And it's going to be, I think, the largest stand-alone projects in Spain. To date, we're going to be able to start -- it's nearly ready to build. We are working on some tolling agreements. Hopefully, we will announce something before the summer ends, right? And construction will start in very early 2026, and the plant should be operational in 2027, right? We're talking about a plan of 150 megawatts, nominal 4 hours, 600 megawatt hours, and we're expecting an IRR above 12%. And that's not including capacity market, right? And that's -- I want to leave that very clear. If we ever get the promise capacity market, that's going to be an upside, but we are fine going ahead without any capacity mechanism, and that's a message that we want to send and leave very, very clear, right? So we will be giving news very frequently in the GreenBox platform. We will be announcing tolling agreements. I think beginning -- starting in Spain, maybe Germany at the same time, we will be incorporating and same as we did with Oasis of Atacama, we will be enlarging the platform quite frequently. So before we move to -- I give the -- I hand over to Daniel. I'd like to -- just to make some very simple key takeaways to wrap up this part, yes. Reduction in CapEx is a very important factor, right? And such as the increased penetration of renewables, this is accelerating the deployment of BESS, right, as early movers we want to capture the highest possible share in BESS, and that's a very important message, both in hybrid and in stand-alone plants, right? I think it's very important we look at the hybrid platforms that Mercedes introduced, what we are doing in Oasis of Atacama, what we are now doing and presenting in Central Chile, the size of the platform of Central Chile is similar to the size of Oasis of Atacama 1.5 years ago, right? And what we are now doing in Spain with the new platforms. We have introduced GreenBox, which is for us, is going to be the next big thing for us, right? And we have also spoken a lot about energy management, about the role of GR Power, how we are approaching 24/7 energy PPAs. And well, I think this is it for the part. So I give the floor to Daniel.

Daniel Herrera

executive
#7

Okay. I have no video. So it's quite unfair. But okay, first of all, thank you very much for being here with us. I see many familiar faces, many institution banks, good investors, [indiscernible] know more than most of our employees about Greener and sell-side analysts that, well, we started with just a couple back in 2019. I think we're going to be more than 15 very soon with good recommendation, I hope. And well, we have now the financial review where I will explain the way we are going to self-fund this perfect growth story, okay? So those are the targets. We are updating the target, as David said, just 18 months later after the previous Capital Markets Day and why we are updating that early? Because there were some catalysts that have changed completely the CapEx plan that we were expecting. First of all, you all remember, we presented a guide of $210,000 per megawatt hour back in November 2018. Now we are guiding to a CapEx below 50% of what we were presenting. So that helped us in the cash flow, reducing capital needs, allow us to have higher project return. We thank you today -- nicer project return, we have been able to deliver very nice EV to ICE in the asset rotation because of the difference between the project return and the work that now the cost of capital is moving down. So we have more CapEx to be invested. We wanted to present you the project. We have already explained the way we are going to finance the PPAs, the return. And that's the reason we wanted to just include 1 extra year. So we are reducing also the number of years from 4 years that we did before to 3 years. We want to show 100% visibility by reducing the number of years, it gives more credibility to the business plan. Anyhow, afterwards, we will continue to invest, as you may imagine, okay? And then CapEx and asset rotation is the KPI that I like the most. Then installed capacity and EBITDA, okay? So let's start with CapEx and asset rotation. So why together? Because asset rotation is the key pillar so we can self-fund this business plan. And we have been able to show that we have overachieved previous target. So as we have overachieved in advance the target we had in place, well, we are going to include an extra target so we can keep financing the growth we have ahead, okay? Then we have included a bridge. So you have it clear what was done in previous year and the additional proceeds and CapEx to be done in coming years. In asset rotation, remember, 2023, we took the good decision to start selling solar PV assets in Spain with good PPAs we closed when merchant price was pretty high, those very high prices we could obtain, we reinvested in the storage project we are obtaining. So 2023 deals in Spain, 2024, we closed asset rotation in country like Peru. Peru is a country that is giving us a lot of cash flow, but we don't want to invest equity in there. So to make it easier to understand our business model, we were just to invest in Chile and then in Europe, of course. So in 2024, we sold wind asset we had in operation, obtaining a lot of equity recycling as well as some solar PV assets in Peru, Matarani. And by the end of the year, it was a key milestone to show real value coming into our balance sheet through the sale of the 3 first phases of Oasis of Atacama at a multiple of 1.6x EV invested capital, while we were considering in previous Capital Markets Day just 1.3. So well, there is still in 2025, some cash flow to come because of Oasis of Atacama, EUR 130 million to come. And then the deal we did in Spain with Allianz, we sold 300 megawatts of solar, and there is still EUR 110 million, both capital gain and equity recycling. Then what next regarding asset rotation. So okay, we are quite opportunistic regarding asset rotation, okay? So if the price is really good, we will take the right decision. We have build-to-sell countries where we prefer to sell the assets like Mexico, Peru, Colombia that we create cash flows coming in and reinvested that into Europe, for instance. Then in Chile, in Chile, we have a lot of exposure, very good exposure because of the very high return we are obtaining. So by selling assets in Chile and reinvesting it into Europe, we can create very good cash flow, especially with the return we have just explained, okay? And solar PV asset, we are now on hybrid. So we have distribution, solar asset, small PV plant that, okay, is not our core target for our platform. We are considering in EV invested capital on average 1.3x in this business model. Hopefully, we can go beyond. Then regarding the CapEx, this is the KPI I like the most. One day, one of you, the analysts here present told me, I'm starting covering you because while other guys within this sector are reducing CapEx and buying their shares, you are multiplying your CapEx by 2, 3, 4x, okay? That is showing the execution we can do and investing in a very high project return. So it's the base scenario. still, we have -- last year, we did EUR 350 million CapEx that was -- thanks to the investment in storage that is multiplying the CapEx we are investing while the execution is not getting more complex. Bear in mind that 1 gigawatt of solar, you will need around 2,000 hectares of land. And just all Oasis of Atacama more or less is just the storage part 50 hectares. So the execution is not that complex. It's multiplying volumes, is increasing the return you are getting. And as well, it's a way of reducing the risk that solar may have that is having problem with cannibalization curtailment. So this is the medicine we are having for solar. And then stand-alone that is coming stand-alone with tolling agreement. Hopefully, we can close tolling agreement for 10 years. And if we are doing, let's say, 2 cycles per day in stand-alone. That means that the average life of the battery will be half. So you are having an average life of, let's say, lifetime of 13 years, while the tolling agreement is covering you 10 years of that. So that means that the tail risk in tolling agreement in stand-alone is minimum. And in a country like Germany, to have that is a kind of financial bond. And sorry, I forgot to mention that the CapEx, even though EUR 3.5 billion might sound really high amount to be invested. But you know the project, Oasis of Atacama, Central Oasis already with PPAs and GreenBox Spain, hybrid with Escuderos. So, we are just including the project. You know we gave you a lot of color with PPAs with a ton of information in the appendix, you can see the energy, how it's moving through the battery system. So a lot of information, so you can modelize it correctly. Then very quickly, regarding installed capacity target, well, that was really important some years ago for now. I think the important part will be the CapEx to be invested, the return, the value creation you are doing. But in this case, with the business model we created, the installed capacity 2027 gross we are going to have is 4.4 gigawatts. That is -- that compared with previous target in 2026 of 5 gigawatts of solar. So that means that we are reducing solar PV target because investment allocation, we are moving towards higher return on storage, reducing, as I said, many execution on operating risk. And the gross target for storage, as we said, is 4x what we had in previous Capital Markets Day. First time we had a target for storage was in 2022, where we guide for just 1 gigawatt hour in 2025. I think last week, we just bought 3.5 gigawatt hour for storage, okay? So investment allocation is a key element. That's why we are moving towards storage. And then EBITDA, well, we continue to move this up and up. Even though we have been selling assets, we can introduce more projects, and that is letting us increase the EBITDA target, both run rate and what we expect in the business plan for 2027, okay? It looks an important figure. But remember, the EBITDA, we were guiding just for Oasis Atacama, $350 million on average million, $150 million for Oasis Central. So there is more to come. Of course, GreenBox, we are including gigawatt hour in this business model that will, of course, provide a very nice EBITDA and all the projects we have in our current balance sheet and [indiscernible]. So I think, of course, we are going to sell part of what we have been focusing. That's the reason we are guiding just for this EUR 450 million, EUR 500 million, okay? Then financing. It's a pity every time we present a relevant fact regarding financing, the market is not reacting. And the reality is that it's a good news because the market knows that we can finance, we can obtain project financing whenever we have good PPAs, good project, banks, they have all decarbonation target. And there is a huge appetite, as Emi explained before. So we are always achieving this financing in this chart, we are just including 70% to 80% leverage, okay? But bear in mind that we have some division development, construction that at consolidated level, that operation is not creating any EBITDA. So those guys that are building projects everywhere in many countries at the same time, in the desert of Atacama that they are doing great. Alfredo is here, is our EPC Director. Those guys are the one that has built the most number of storage plant worldwide. And they are creating value in this case. With commercial margin, we are including the financing that is allowing us to include more leverage. And with more leverage, less equity we need. Anyhow, you will see that we have been conservative in the business plan, we have just included 80% leverage, okay? And then the WACC is moving down, thanks to the reduction in interest cost. So please update business model, please. And well, we are obtaining a very competitive corporate financing, as Emi said. And stand-alone BESS project financing, the way we are going to finance, I think you will see it shortly. But with a tolling agreement, closing with an investment grade offtaker, we are going to have it. And then the investment plan. The investment plan is quite easy. those -- that CapEx I've just explained, we have just EUR 200 million in development CapEx. We are in 11 markets. We are refocusing in storage and in some markets for sure, but it's the most profitable CapEx we can invest. Then the PV versus BESS, again, we are moving towards BESS. From those EUR 3.5 billion we have some build-to-sell CapEx to be invested that we are not going to kept in our balance sheet, around EUR 800 million that out of those EUR 800 million, around EUR 250 million is for deals already agreed. So we are including just EUR 550 million that in addition with the CapEx already invested in the balance sheet of some assets we might sell will be the one producing the asset rotation we need for this self-funded business plan, okay? Then we have corporate costs that include tax finance, our salaries. And we included -- as some of you are telling us always in London, please buy your shares, buy your shares. We are including some share buyback just in case we need because buying our shares, when we see all the growth we have ahead, I think the return is the highest you can find. We had the second project -- the second share buyback program in place. We have just ended, and we have bought the shares at an average price of $37 (sic) [ EUR 37 ] -- sorry, EUR 37. So well, it is just available in case we need it. Then corporate debt that -- well, just -- we have just included EUR 100 million and the project finance that if you made the math, as I said, we are just including 80% leverage for that CapEx. So it is actually an upside. It might reduce the asset rotation needs or will allow us to go faster. And then, well, some dividends received from the facilities we have in place and the cash we had in the balance sheet. We ended 2024 with EUR 350 million cash. Net debt/EBITDA leverage, we are guiding to below 7. I mean, right now, it is affected by asset rotation. And this is the leverage we see on average in the business model. It's moving up and down depending on the asset rotation, but we keep it under control. And the corporate leverage we have that means without including project financing without recourse is, as you know, 3.5x, and we will be always there, okay? And now I hand you over to Maria that will explain why sustainability is a key pillar of our strategy.

Maria Rodriguez Gismero

executive
#8

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning to you all. So we are undoubtedly facing a world of rapid change. There is now tighter regulation, rising expectations and greater scrutiny. But we didn't wait to react. We chose to lead. Back in 2019, we started laying the groundwork for our sustainability strategy, setting the course with governance, structured procedures and transparency. Today, our ESG road map 2024, 2026 takes it further with sharper priorities, well-established goals and specific actions across our value chain. That strong foundation enables us to stay ahead of regulations like the European CSRD. And we keep generating positive impact where it counts, our employees, local communities and the environment. For us, it's not just about reporting. It's about building long-term value through resilience and purpose because growth -- real growth is the kind of the legacy. We're proud to be part of the green economy, but our ambition goes well beyond that. Sustainability is embedded in how we operate from a strategy to execution, a shared responsibility owned throughout our entire company. Our ESG ratings reflect the steady progress and commitment. But we do more than just ratings. We are creating local jobs. We are protecting biodiversity. We are expanding access to renewable energy, and we are forging partnerships that drive real-world impact. This is how we keep moving forward on and on with initiatives that make a lesson difference. I think it's safe to say that our path is clear. We are focused, future-ready and built to thrive. Thank you very much.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#9

So thank you very much for all the presentations. So now let's move to the Q&A session, please. First, we will start with the questions from the audience in the room and after with the ones that we will receive from the chat available on the webcast. Please remember only one question per sell-side analyst and we suggest -- yes. One question, please. [indiscernible] .

Ruben Gomez

executive
#10

Okay. First question, Alexandre from Bank of America. Alexandre, Bank of America.

Alexandre Roncier

analyst
#11

Yes, I had 4, so I'll just have one then. Just thinking about guidance, I think actually, your EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million run rate is already beaten by the numbers you present for like each of the platform. So I'm wondering if we can have some more granularity here. I think on the platform, the low end, you get to EUR 460 million, but I think, Daniel, during your comments about guidance, you said you had 4 gigawatts of your GreenBox pipeline within 2027 guidance as well. So I think you can reach the EUR 500 million actually very easily. So any kind of clarity about that would be nice. And then wondering actually about guidance and the different buckets, you haven't really talked about capital gains. And I think you've got around EUR 130 million of development and construction in your 2027 guidance as well. So could we think about that level of EUR 130 million as a recurring capital gains in the near future from 2027 onwards? Any clarity about that would be great as well.

Daniel Herrera

executive
#12

Okay. Well, GreenBox, we are targeting 3 gigawatt hour, even though we think that, that amount will be -- but in this business model, we are just including 3 gigawatt hour that might create EBITDA of, let's say, around EUR 80 million, EUR 90 million -- sorry, okay? In addition to the Oasis, $350 million, $150 million coming from Central Oasis as well. But then we do have some already built assets in the balance sheet. Also, I forgot to said Escuderos. Escuderos depends on the final tolling agreement, but it will boost the current EBITDA, okay? And we are providing the returns so you can easily calculate. And that is more or less what we are including in the recurring EBITDA.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#13

As Daniel was saying before, if you put together the EBITDA we are considering [indiscernible] I think that's pretty conservative if you look at the last couple of transactions, right? So we have a menu of potential deals. And well, it's opportunistic, as Daniel said. But we believe it's an achievable target. It's nearly there. It's 2.5 years from now. So we're talking about projects that we -- most of the projects are already contracted or we will be very soon announcing either tolling agreements or new PPAs to achieve this range of run rate we are giving you for end of 2027.

Alexandre Roncier

analyst
#14

Okay. So just to clarify, so that EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million is including the asset rotation you're going to do for the next 3 years or excluding?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#15

No, excluding. That's just energy.

Alexandre Roncier

analyst
#16

So there's a...

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#17

Run rate energy from the plants we will -- that will be in our balance sheet at the end of 2026.

Alexandre Roncier

analyst
#18

But that EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million is with all the plants you're going to build for the next 3 years without you selling anything or with you having already set?

Daniel Herrera

executive
#19

Okay. So that's why it is not above that figure because of the easy math I meant.

Alexandre Roncier

analyst
#20

Yes. But it feels very safe what I want to say.

Daniel Herrera

executive
#21

Okay. And remember, asset rotation means capital gains and equity recycling. So we have some assets, for instance, in Colombia, Mexico that the equity recycling will be really nice, and that's why we are including that in the asset rotation target.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#22

Okay. Next question, Fernando Garcia from RBC.

Fernando Garcia

analyst
#23

One question and one clarification, please. My question is on the EBITDA in 2027, what you have of capital gains in that guidance that you are providing, it looks like around EUR 100 million, but I wanted to check that. And then the question is about something that you actually say 1 week ago when you say that Quillagua I was operating with higher efficiency levels. Can you clarify that comment? Do you mean there that the battery maybe is delivering more output than you were expecting? I think this is important because it's kind of your first data point on this aspect. And then the returns that we are seeing here, the 14%, 16%, for example, in the Atacama remaining phases, does this include the potential upside from this?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#24

Okay. I'll go for this one. We are just -- okay, Quillagua I, I think, got connected 3 months ago. So it's been 2, 2.5 months ago. We just connected and is testing -- in the testing phase, Quillagua II. It's -- we don't really like to talk a lot about plants that we have actually rotated, right? So anyway, the good news is that the performance is we are getting now. We are talking -- we need to be cautious. We're in the pre-COD phase. So -- but it's probably higher than expected. I'm not going to give numbers. We are not considering any of those potential upsides in any of our business plan, okay? Whatever we use is the output that either CATL, which is the one we're using for Gabriela or BYD, the one we're using for Quillagua and Victor Jara are guaranteeing us, right? And that's basically the case. And any upside will be really out of our business plan. The good news is that, well, it seems that we're getting some little extra.

Daniel Herrera

executive
#25

Sorry, can you repeat that?

Fernando Garcia

analyst
#26

What is the capital gain that you are estimating in 2027 EBITDA? It looks like you are including like around EUR 100 million, but I wanted to clarify.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#27

Okay. We are giving a guidance of EUR 800 million in proceeds, right? We're not giving a guidance of 2027 and you can more or less make an estimation.

Unknown Executive

executive
#28

Yes. The situation with asset rotation is that it's difficult to predict in which exercise it will be included. So that's why we prefer now to guide for asset rotation target. If we are doing that asset rotation before, it doesn't mean that 2027 figures are bad or even better because we are improving the financial cost because we have the cash flows. But also bear in mind that, that target for 2027 is including a little bit of -- well, the asset rotation we are including in the business model as possible for that year, also deducting corporate cost and with a little bit of positive impact from GR Power in the retail unit and Service division.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#29

Okay. Next question, Flora from CaixaBank.

Flora Mericia Trindade

analyst
#30

First one or one and one clarification again. The one on the battery stand-alone. Can you just comment on challenges that you are witnessing? Because we've seen that the backlog is basically in Spain, which is a market that is not as developed in terms of ancillary services, capacity payments. So when we are negotiating the tolling agreements, is this taking longer than a traditional PPA, I would assume. What levels of tolling agreements are you negotiating? And what is your level of confidence that you will reach these agreements on time for the targets that you have presented here? And then I've seen -- this is a clarification part in the part of the asset rotation you include in terms of storage. So you already have the first 3 phases of Oasis Atacama, but the target is roughly doubling that. So is your target to sell more Oasis of Atacama or could it come from Central Chile?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#31

Okay. I start with the clarification. I think as we have mentioned, we -- the rotation -- the asset rotation is kind of opportunistic, right? So we -- obviously, to meet the target we've given of EUR 0.8 billion in proceeds, we're going to need to rotate eventually something of the platforms in Chile. But it could be Oasis of Atacama Phase IV, Phase V or it could be Central Oasis. And there are other opportunities in our pipeline. So we really don't know. It's opportunistic. Believe me, we always try to do what we think is best for the shareholders and for the story, right? And regarding your first question, I think we are quite optimistic about the tolling agreements. It's true that the first backlog you see there is EUR 600 million coming from the [ Escuderos ] project, the project. But that's going to be changing. In 3 months' time, you will see that the backlog, you're going to see something in Germany, something in Spain. We are pretty confident about the tolling agreements. We have already 3 conversations with some offtakers in Spain. And I think we will get feedback very, very soon. And we are not considering anything coming from capacity mechanism or we are considering anything coming from ancillary services. We are just talking about tolling agreements. And I don't know, Daniel, our Head of Energy is here. So Daniel, maybe you can give more clarification?

Unknown Executive

executive
#32

Yes. Well, as David mentioned, we are -- we have been negotiating some structures in -- both in Germany and Spain for many months. To your question, I think the utilities are already mature enough to move forward with contracts. So they have been working on this structure for a very long time for 2024. And right now, we are in a very advanced negotiations and discussions with them. They are working contracts. And I think this is something feasible that we can work in the coming months, right? In terms of structures and maturity of the market, it is really different from Germany and Spain. In Germany, they -- some utilities have closed already some tolling agreements. So they are really prepared to close new contracts in the following months. And they have a strong appetite as well. And I think in Spain is a little bit different. They are -- they have appetite to move forward with this kind of structures. I don't see they are mature enough to close larger volume under a tolling agreement, but we are seeing other structures like a true floor with a revenue sharing scheme above the floor. So we can participate in other markets. And also some of them are preferring to go to a financial structure where they close some hedge to the day ahead spread, right? So we are seeing different things in the market, but a lot of appetite, they want to move forward. And I think they are ready to close something binding soon enough.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#33

Next question from Gonzalo De Cueto from Exane. It doesn't work?

Gonzalo De Cueto Moreno

analyst
#34

Okay. Just one. On Central Chile, trading activity will represent a component of the overall remuneration. I wonder how the current spread compares with the spread in the north of Chile. And what is your long-term view around this?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#35

Okay. You mean the IRR, yes?

Gonzalo De Cueto Moreno

analyst
#36

The IRR and also the spread between daylight and night prices.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#37

Okay. The market keeps changing in Chile. I could say when we closed our first hybrid PPAs 2 years ago, the prices we could get in the north were roughly the same that the ones we could get in the South. I think the market is in the North is getting more busy. There are more players offering now PPAs. Even it's easier in the north to offer like a 24/7 because you can build more easily. You've got like a perfect cycling. We've been working and talking a lot with our colleagues from BYD and CATL, maybe one of the few places in the world where you can cycle the battery nearly every day, and that gives you the ability to approach and work think like a thermal plant, right? So the prices of PPAs are going down. But in Central Chile, now there's a lot of demand. A lot of mining activity is not that far away from Santiago. And for the moment, all the data center and new AI data centers are being located around Santiago. So that's why we believe that there's going to be a lot of opportunities and the gaps between day and night prices are higher in Central Chile than in North Chile, right? IRRs have been -- okay, we have managed to obtain higher IRRs in the North, basically because we closed the PPAs 2 years, 1.5 years ago, and then the CapEx price has been going down. So we don't expect that this will remain forever, right? So at one point, I think the IRRs will get closer. And I think in Central, there might be the opposite effect, right? Because there's going to be a lot of demand of energy at night. And the only way you can provide that new demand is through BESS. And we see Chile as 2 different markets. What happens in the North is different from what you play -- the play you have in.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#38

Okay. Next question from Fernando [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#39

Two questions for me, one on a clarification as well again. Going back to the tolling agreement and the stand-alone battery in Spain, your business model, 2 questions here. The first one is what -- if you have capacity payments, how this could affect the tolling agreements that you are negotiating now? And also, if you are considering operating the battery yourself, I mean, in terms of instead of going for a tolling agreement, just become a direct producer into the market. And the clarification is on CapEx. Daniel, you mentioned EUR 800 million of CapEx for sale of assets that you expect to sell. Just to clarify this. And what is the proportion linked to the 3 phases of Atacama that you have already sold?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#40

You talk about the second one first because it's proceeds, right? It's not CapEx. So it's CapEx.

Unknown Executive

executive
#41

Okay. So we are guiding for EUR 2 billion for Oasis of Atacama, and we have invested EUR 400 million already in that project. So it remains around EUR 1.6 billion for Oasis. In Q1, we presented EUR 80 million for Oasis of Atacama, and I think was around EUR 200 million, what we had already invested in that platform before, okay? So -- so still -- so we have invested around EUR 400 million. Most of it is coming from the 3 phases of Oasis of Atacama that we have rotated, okay? And then the capital gains are still coming. Partially, it has been received in the full year figure. But still, there will be another EUR 130 million EBITDA coming. If you want exactly the bridge.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#42

I was more thinking on the EUR 3.5 billion CapEx that's the net CapEx or the CapEx that you are including related to assets that are going to be sold, which I understand if it's 1.3 x invested capital invested capital, it's going to be like EUR 600 million CapEx. So it should be EUR 2.9 billion for your own assets, more or less.

Unknown Executive

executive
#43

We are including EUR 800 million of CapEx for build-to-sell in that EUR 3.5 billion, okay?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#44

Go to the first question, tolling. Okay. I'll try to do it without the help of Daniel. But I -- correct me if I'm wrong, Daniel, but I believe that it is slightly different. The few advanced conversations we are having in Spain. I think if capacity payments happen eventually, right, we -- I think this is an upside for us, right? It's in Germany, it's the other way around. You similar situation because Italy and U.K., they already have capacity mechanism. They have auctions. I think in the U.K. next February, March. And in Italy, the [indiscernible] is happening eventually. So it's -- they already have mechanism. Germany and Spain, they still don't have, but we are seeing this as an upside. The difference is in Germany, most of the tolling agreements, they are going to keep that upside for themselves. But in exchange, we're getting a higher price than the one we're getting in Spain. But I think that's more or less the way. And yes, we plan to have and develop in-house capabilities to operate the batteries, right? But I think at the very beginning, we might work with external optimizers, right? And I think it makes sense to do it in that way. Again, tolling agreements will be the lion's share of our revenues, right? But we plan to leave like 20%, 25% open. And also, we believe there is an upside being full merchant the first 1 year, the first 2 years, if possible. So the later that the tolling starts, I think the better, right?

Ruben Gomez

executive
#45

Next question from Ignacio, JB Capital.

Ignacio Doménech

analyst
#46

One question or a follow-up on the IRRs in Chile, okay? So before you were mentioning this decrease or difference between Central and Northern Chile. So I just want to get your view on going forward, the relationship between the CapEx pricing and what would be your, let's say, threshold or the minimum project IRR that you would require there, okay? And then just a second question, if I may, on -- David, I think on the fourth quarter '24 results, you mentioned the concern on the liquidity of the shares and you could provide an update in the capital markets. So I just wanted to get your view there. I think Daniel has mentioned the plan is self-funded, but any color that you could add there would be helpful.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#47

Okay. On the first question, I think at the moment, we don't plan to invest anything in Chile below double-digit project IRR, right? I think that would be our threshold. But I think we still see consistency in the returns we can get in the next few quarters, right? I think -- but if you ask me the threshold that would be 10% minimum, right? So Central Oasis, anyway, the first one, it's -- we are recycling our existing plants. So we are investing on top of them. So it has some effect on this legacy on the IRR that we are getting in the first phases of central Oasis. I think in -- eventually in Central Oasis, we might get a slightly higher IRRs than the ones we are reflecting there, yes. And about liquidity, I've always said that I think we'll do whatever it takes to increase the liquidity. And I think market cap is going up. So it's helping. I think if you look at the volume we are getting in the last few weeks, last few months, it's improving. But yes, we will keep that in mind. It's one of our top objectives.

Unknown Executive

executive
#48

Okay. But I would like to be clear, there is no share capital increase coming, okay? It's a self-funded business plan.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#49

We can be very clear on that.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#50

Okay. [indiscernible] from Santander.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#51

I wanted to ask why are you so convinced that the model of stand-alone in Europe will be as successful as it has been in Chile? Do you think it's because you probably are going to be a first mover because many of your competitors are waiting for the market to get regulated or to get these capacity payments or whatever? And why do you think this is a better option to just do best stand-alone than to do -- continue to do hybrid parks as you have been doing in Chile? And one small clarification in your assumptions about CapEx, have you assumed stable battery prices or prices to continue to come down?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#52

Okay. About the second question, I think we are assuming -- again, we're taking the conservative. We are assuming stable battery prices, right, for '26 and '27. It's a very good question. Anyway, the CapEx and the projects we will execute in 2027, we will hedge the -- I mean, normally, when we get a PPA, we try to hedge the cost and the procurement of the main materials, right? So we are -- I don't know, you have the chance to ask our friends from CATL and BYD, what they think about it, right? I don't know. I believe that eventually, we are very surprised about the innovation that is coming at what speed the innovation is coming. They're increasing the efficiency. I think CATL just announced a double decker in Intersolar. They can give you a lot of details for 9 megawatt hour. I think BYD is announcing new stuff very soon. So we are surprised as how these gains of efficiency, and that's also a very important driver to move prices down. It's not just the scale of manufacturing that they are achieving. So honestly, I think the price will still keep going down. I cannot say the same about panels. Solar panels, if you ask me, I believe they're in a very difficult level to maintain. I think -- I mean, the scenario we're considering is even there could be slightly increases in solar panels, slightly, yes. And about GreenBox, well, we are extremely convinced. There's no question. It's not just us. It's -- we are looking at the conversation we are having offtakers. There's plenty of interest. And if you look at the development wave in Europe for stand-alone projects, it's unbelievable. I think more than 500 gigawatt hours have been submitted of new applications in Germany. That's obviously -- it's taken by every single market. So we believe -- I mean, the question is how low the CapEx needs to go before everybody is convinced that the number works. That must work, right? And that's -- I think it's -- the reality is giving you the answer, right? So we are very convinced. Countries like Spain and Italy and sunny places, right, I believe that they will be placed for hybrid plants like the ones we've done in Chile. And there will also be a place for stand-alone plants, right? If you look at Chile, there are very, very few stand-alone plants. Most of the activity, okay. You can have with the highest addition in the wall, your solar plant next door. So okay, I think it makes more sense. But I think in places like Spain, we're going to need a lot of storage very quickly, and I think there's going to be a good market for either for both stand-alone and hybrid projects. Other markets in Continental Europe, I believe stand-alone makes a lot more sense.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#53

Okay. Next question, Temi, from Barclays.

Temitope Sulaiman

analyst
#54

I've got a couple of questions, but I'll keep it to one question and one clarification. Maybe first on the share buyback. You mentioned you're thinking about that as part of your investment plan. But would you elaborate on sort of the conditions? How are you thinking about it? What will cause you to pull the trigger on that? And the clarification on GR Power, it looks like there are a number of small players in the others category in that market. And clarification, are you looking solely at organic growth there? Or would you opportunistically kind of consider inorganic growth in that space?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#55

Okay. I think I might leave maybe Emi on share buybacks, right? It's opportunistic. But I think we've given a target, maybe you can.

Emi Takehara

executive
#56

Yes. We -- well, I think Daniel also mentioned it, like we're planning EUR 100 million of allocation of funds, specifically for share buybacks, but we -- I mean, this will be opportunistic, obviously. So depending on the share price and when we see value.

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#57

About GR Power, yes, I think we've been growing organically, yes. We've been 5 years in the market already, right, starting from scratch. I think we've got a fantastic team. And well, we are now moving to the next phase. I mean we are now competing with the big incumbents in mining and data centers baseload contracts. So that's like a new -- completely new phase for us. And I think the opportunities to grow organically are quite big. First, because we are jumping from a system of 80 terawatt hours to, my internal estimation is, more than 100 4, 5 years from now, just considering 3, 4 large mining projects that were recently announced from BHP, Codelco, Anglo American and also the a lot of activity on AI plus the natural increase in demand in Chile. So we see a lot of opportunity for -- keep in mind that GR Power for us is a business by itself. It's going to be business by itself. But at the same time, it's going to be the offtaker we are going to need in some of our plants, right? So it serves this double purpose, right? So anyway, if there are opportunities to accelerate this growth, we will definitely look at them to grow faster in the future.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#58

Okay. So we have 2 questions from the webcast. [indiscernible], can you read the questions, please?

Maria Rodriguez Gismero

executive
#59

First question comes from Ana from ODDO. What are -- What are the barriers to entry into the storage market? And do early movers like energy have a decisive advantage over other players?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#60

Well, thanks, for the question. I think we've been talking about this all the time. I mean being early movers, it's giving us a lot of advantage. I mean we can -- also the integrated model, as explained, give us the flexibility to execute faster than others, time to market in storage we always make this comparison is we've seen so many waves, wind, solar, but this is like a tsunami, right? It's happening so quickly. We need to -- having the ability to execute ourselves, develop, build, operate is definitely giving us a competitive advantage. Also, the partnership relationships we are developing with players like BYD and CATL are great for us. It's all about partnership. And I think we can grow together, and that's also a great advantage we have. The ability to close hybrid premium PPAs. I think we've done that earlier than others, right? And well, M&A and our finance teams are very familiar with the storage already. And it takes time, right? It will take longer for the players to get where we are.

Maria Rodriguez Gismero

executive
#61

Okay. And the second question and the last one, it's from [indiscernible] Eduardo. He asks for GreenBox battery projects, can we expect the same level of permitting difficulty or delay in Europe as we have seen with PV projects?

David Ruiz de Andrés

executive
#62

Well, we hope not. Yes. We hope not because it's been a nightmare. That's another point. The permitting process for BESS projects in essence, is more straightforward, right, because you are affecting less amount of land, right? It doesn't mean, and we have already seen in some cases in some countries that you need to work very closely with communities. Nobody wants a very large best project in the rater, right? So that's something -- I think we need to be sensible to that. But in essence, I think -- I mean, in Chile, we are developing now a hybrid project in a matter of 3, 4 months because you're converting one existing project to batteries. In Spain, that's going to take longer. That's going to take a year, but it's a year. The last plants we are building now in Spain were developments that we started, believe it or not, in 2017, 2018. It's taking in some cases, 6 years. In Italy, it's taking 4, 5 years. But I think it's going to take -- it's not going to take that long in.

Maria Rodriguez Gismero

executive
#63

There is no more questions.

Ruben Gomez

executive
#64

Okay. So with this, we have finished our CMD. Again, thank you very much for your attendance, and please join us for the cocktail with management in the building next door. So thank you very much.

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