Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HDD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 4, 2021

Deutsche Boerse Xetra DE Industrials Machinery earnings 61 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our call on the occasion of this morning's publication of our key figures for Q1 financial year '21/'22. Together with my colleague, Marcus Wassenberg, I will present the most important development at Heidelberg's key financial figures to you as usual. Afterwards, we'll be happy to answer any questions you may have. Less than 2 months ago at our annual result press conference, I announced Heidelberg's back and the figures published today for the first quarter of 2021/2022, impressively confirm this. We succeeded in achieving the promised significant improvements at the beginning of the year. The broad-based market recovery is driven by a noticeable increase in willingness to invest. Our significantly higher order intake figures underline the market recovery that can be seen in almost all regions of the world. This increasing momentum is also noticeable in significantly higher sales compared to the comparable figures of the previous year. Our successful product premier, in particular our new universal press, Speedmaster CX 104, and our very successful trade show in China contributed to this. In addition, the increasingly positive effects of our consistently pursued transformation are now clearly noticeable. The 4 growth areas we have defined are clearly picking up. I would like to highlight China and the e-mobility as example for the quarter under review. With China Print, we had a very successful trade show in China in June with a big boost in demand in the world's most important single market. Also, the boom with our Wallboxes continues unabated. We have just started up the third new production line and already working intensively on the next expansion, which we want to implement latest by the end of 2021 in order to be able to meet the increasing demand for our e-mobility products. And the end of July is still a long way off in view of the international expansion still to come. We are also able to successfully progress in our location optimization in the past quarter. The transfer of an area at the Wiesloch-Walldorf site and the sale of property in Brentford, U.K. will further reduce our structural cost in the future. Although we expected -- although we expect extra order income from projects already initiated within the framework of our asset management in order to focus on the core business in the current year, which will be significantly lower than in the previous year, I would like to draw your attention to one point of our figures for the first quarter in particular. In previous years and especially in the last financial year, we were always accused that our results contained extensive one-off effects, special factors that made it impossible to get a true view of our operational development. And I can counter that today. The figures we presented today for the first quarter of 2021/2022 show a realistic view of our improved operating profitability. And we are becoming more and more profitable. In the coming financial year, the total target savings of EUR 170 million should take full effect and sustainably reduce the group's operation breakeven point to around EUR 1.9 billion. EBITDA, which in the same period of the previous year was characterized by massive one-off effects from the use of short time work and income from the reorganization of the company's pension scheme of EUR 73 million, reached an operationally strongly improved level of EUR 15 million. Thus despite significantly lower sales, the results were even above the pre-crisis value from 2019 to 2020, which was back then EUR 11 million. Heidelberg also expects the profitable upward trend to continue in the coming years, provided that the economy remains solid. The basis for this is the implementation of the realignment measures to focus on the profitable core business and the expansion of the growth areas. As reported, Heidelberg sees as a clear future potential above all in packaging printing in China, in digital business models and with new technology applications like, for example, in e-mobility. More on this in a moment. For each of these 4 fields, we have given you concrete medium-term goals at the beginning of June. This will enable us to tap into sustainable high earnings and free cash flow potentials. And so Heidelberg is transforming itself from a pure printing press supplier into a sustainably profitable, well-diversified technology company. Thanks to the positive trend in the first quarter, we are very confident of achieving our full year targets, assuming the global economy continues to recover. Confidence for 2020/21 is -- confidence for 2021/2022 as a whole is driven primarily by look at the order intake, driven by a broad market recovery and an encouragingly good trade show in China, we were able to increase them by 89% year-on-year to EUR 652 million in the first quarter, which was well above expectations. The trade show in China, in our most important sales market, has already generated a mid-double digit million amount in incoming orders already in the first quarter, and this will continue in the second quarter. But Europe also showed an above-average market recovery driven by the investment backlog that has been built up. So due to the effects from the trade show in China and the dissolution of the investment backlog, we are able to recover a very nice order intake overall. What do we expect for the following quarters without trade show effects? Overall, we will probably slightly below the level recorded in the first quarter as the corona pandemic continues to leave its marks on our clients. Our goal in the current year is, therefore, to work consistently and sustainably toward the level that also offers us sufficient potential for our goal in the coming year and approaches to the pre-level crisis for the year as a whole. Also in light of this development, I can confirm our existing outlook for the full year 2021/22 without any reservation. In the packaging segment, where we are recording high-growth rates, especially in the Chinese market. The packaging market continues to show structural growth and with our product innovations, we are achieving good sales success with printers worldwide, but especially in the important Chinese markets. Our range of customer-specific contract models also continues to be well received by the customers. The share of sales that contractually bound and thus collected via currently over a longer period of time has already reached around 14% of Heidelberg's group sales with the end of this quarter. This helps us to smooth out cyclical fluctuations in demand for new machines. We would also like to mention our successful commitment in the field of e-mobility. After 3 months, we were able to triple our sales, and the order situation and demand remained very high. This underlines the fact that we have become a leading provider in the charging infrastructure sector in just a few years. Heidelberg has increased its market share in the private charging systems to currently around 20%. Demand is growing so dynamically, but we have doubled our production capacity by the beginning of 2021 and plan to add more by the end of the year. We have already started this and recently commissioned a third production line. With a spin-off into an independent company, our focus is on accelerating further growth. We want to generate this primarily through the expansion into new markets and through new products along the lines of technological progress. In this context, we are also in discussions with potential partners who can take us significantly further forward alongside our strong organic growth. In particular, this involves the future-oriented supplementation and development of our business model such as the product portfolio in total, but also software and sales competence. Here too we hope to be able to communicate details to you by the end of 2021. On the other hand, materials supply remains challenging. Nevertheless, we assume that we'll grow organically by more than 50%, starting from the sales of EUR 20 million from the past financial year. With that, I would like to hand over to my CFO, Marcus Wassenberg, who will give you more details on the quarter and the year. Marcus, please, your turn.

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#2

Thank you, Rainer. Hi, everybody, and good afternoon where ever you are. I think if you look at the KPIs of the first quarter, the statements of Rainer can be clearly substantiated. Rainer talked about the momentum in order intake that obviously gives us confidence. But actually, order backlog per se of EUR 840 million, which is 39% more than last year or EUR 200 million more than last year is giving us a lot of confidence. We had obviously a weak year previous year due to COVID. But as compared to last year, we were able to increase our sales by 33% to an amount of EUR 541 million and that represents, as I said, an increase of around about 1/3. We made significant gains in China, in the U.S., Italy and fortunately also in Germany. In terms of EBITDA, we were able to achieve a satisfactory result of around about EUR 15 million. If we just look on an operational basis, that means that we see a strong improvement as compared to previous year, and I'll go into details later in this conversation. With adjusted taxes minus EUR 14 million, decrease compared to previous year, but again here too we made strong progress because we repaid the high-yield bond reduced, therefore other interest-bearing liabilities and we were able to realize a significant decrease in the interest result compared to the previous year. This picture is underlined with a view to the decline of our financial liabilities and net financial debt, which has reached a historic low of EUR 41 million. Free cash flow in the reporting period was also very pleasing, clearly positive at EUR 29 million after minus EUR 63 million in the previous year. For us, it's clear that we are back on the path to sustainable improvement in profitability. Even if the comparison of the absolute figures suggest otherwise, this statement also applies in relation to our EBITDA in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Looking at the main changes as compared to the same quarter of previous year, it is clear that we have been able to significantly improve our operating profitability and thus the quality of our earnings. And these changes can actually be found in 2 factors. Due to COVID, we made extensive use of short-term work in the first quarter of last year to compensate for underutilization. This effect is not longer applicable for us to a larger extent. Due to the significant increase in capacity utilization, we were able to reduce this instrument by roundabout EUR 45 million in the past quarter as compared to the same period of previous year. Just to give you an idea, EUR 10 million for Q1 in the financial year, that means a reduction from EUR 45 million to EUR 10 million. Furthermore, we were able to realize the reorganization of our company pension schemes, as you know, in Germany at the same quarter of previous year, which was predominantly aimed at curbing pension dynamics. This important milestone will sustainably reduce cash out for pensions in the future. In the first quarter of last year, however, this reorganization also led to an income of an extra EUR 73 million, which has significantly improved our EBITDA and strengthened our equity. By now, we can already compensate for the absence of these 2 effects to a large extent through a strongly improved operating result. Compared to the same period of previous year, the sustainable savings from transformation increased by around EUR 30 million and thus we're able to make a significant contribution to the improvement in results. For the full year, as we said, we expect savings from the transformation of our company of around EUR 140 million or more. Finally, we were able to post an improvement of roundabout EUR 30 million due to the significantly increased sales volume and resulting margin. The other changes mainly relate to the elimination of restructuring expense from the same quarter of previous year. But you don't see them, what we don't have included is the effect of the sale of the land in Wiesloch-Walldorf in this bridge as the only significant nonoperating income in the first quarter. And the reason for that is that the income is in the high single-digit million range, but it's offset by the cost of relocations and necessary conversions in roughly the same amount. So basically from that, there is no external benefit. Look at our balance sheet also reveals clear progress. Fixed assets were mainly reduced by the reclassification of Property in Brentford U.K. as held for sale. Same period last year, the assets that were part of the sale of land here in Wiesloch-Walldorf were transferred to the purchaser for the assets held for sale, which we show on the other assets remain essentially a dent. Net working capital sale from EUR 465 million as of June 30 compared to EUR 505 million at the end of previous financial year and EUR 670 million at the end of the same quarter last year. Yes, we're building up inventories and this was, on the other hand, mainly offset by successfully improved receivables management. And at the same time, due to the order intake, we received more advanced payments from our customers and therefore, advanced payments -- obviously, due to this advanced payments also increased. Group equity, maybe as one of the -- or maybe the only down of EUR 82 million as a result of the negative after-tax result and slightly increasing pension provisions due to the drop in domestic interest rates from 1.4% at March 31 to 1.3% as of June 30. However, in our parent company Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, equity ratio remains at a solid level of 28%. The company's debt measured in terms of net financial debt has, as already mentioned, reached a historic low of EUR 41 million as of June 30 compared to the previous year value of EUR 122 million in the first quarter. We were thus able to achieve another significant reduction. In particular, the repayment of the highest bond in September 2020 that was part of our restructuring program enabled us to realize significant improvement in the financial result. With a coupon of 8%, the highest bond was the most expensive debt instrument and a volume of EUR 150 million resulted, as you know, in interest payments of EUR 12 million per annum. Not only last year, but only -- but also in the last -- in the past quarter, we were able to further reduce our liability significantly. The availability of our largest debt instrument, the revolver, was around 75% as of June 30. Overall, Heidelberg is in a solid financial position. In order to make our ambitions and progress more measurable, we are reporting in a new segmentation from the current financial year. We love our internal operation and management model. And at the request of our investors, the reporting structure is now aligned and divided into 3 client segments: printing solutions, packaging solutions and technology solutions. Based on the individual main activity, each customer is assigned to one of these 3 segments. Printing solutions, encompasses our equipment service software offerings for customers to focus on commercial printing. In our packaging solutions, customer segments we address printers who focus, for example, on folding cartons, label printing, i.e. packaging printing. The third customer segment is technology, currently driven mainly by our e-mobility business with our wall boxes and we will add to this Zaikio, our cloud-based platform for networking participants in the print media industry, IG, to simplify purchasing processes as we are currently scaling up by adding various partners. Zaikio, is not yet included in the segment revenue for the quarter. We will consolidate it for the first time in the first half of the financial year. Last but not least, we also show our developing business with printed electronics here. So this division into customer groups, the new segmentation, is intended to realize an increase in the profitability and competitiveness and above all, to make it more measurable. Through this progress orientation on the one hand and the clear transparency on the other, we want to create sustainable value for our shareholders. After 3 months, the performance on the segments is as follows. We have also obviously prepared previous year figures in the new segmentation for comparability. We see a clear upward trend in the order intake and sales across all segments, with print solutions showing the highest growth, especially in Germany, and packaging solutions primarily driven by the Chinese market. The strongest relative increase is attributable to the technology solutions segment, where we were able to triple sales compared to the previous year, thanks to Wallbox, as mentioned by Rainer already in the beginning. Profitability of the printing and packaging solutions segments declined compared to the previous year due to the high income from the reorganization of pensions in Germany. As the previous year's figures for the segments were adjusted for this effect, a clear operational improvement in EBITDA margins could be seen starting from a slightly negative margin in the previous year. Considering the developments in the first quarter, we can confirm the outlook given so far. The current business years will still be influenced by COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the uncertainties, we expect sales to increase to at least EUR 2 billion. In particular, our strategic initiatives, coupled with the market recovery evident in the order intake and backlog are helping us to build a solid foundation. Another challenge in the current year will be to compensate for the income from the previous year. IG from the reorganizations of pensions, the -- a significant lower utilization of short-term work and the loss of one-off income from the disposals of subsidiary companies with actual operational improvements. Therefore, we expect the EBITDA margin to be in the range of 6% to 7%, characterized by a sustainable rising earnings quality. Now I know that some of you are actually thinking this is quite low. We admit that we will be in the higher part of this range. But on the other hand, let's be careful. We don't want to over-promise and under-deliver. We rather would under-promise and over-deliver. I'm not saying this will be the case. I'm just saying, we want to be careful. We want to see what the influences of the pandemic will be. Therefore, as of now, first quarter, we will maintain our guidance, but admit we will be in the upper range of that area with maybe effects for the future to come, but right now, we're not seeing them clearly enough to actually improve the guidance. Rising revenue and a further reduction of the cost base through our transformation program are helping us to achieve this goal of raising the EBITDA margin. And mind you, by that, we mean '23 -- in financial '23, 10% EBITDA margin, almost EUR 100 million in net profit and high free cash flows. In the current year, extraordinary income is again expected from projects already initiated within the framework of asset management to focus on core business. Compared to the nonrecurring income from previous years, however, this will be of a lower extent. In this context, we expect to recognize the income from the sale of a property in Brentford U.K. in the second half of the financial year. On the other hand, we are experiencing headwinds from material supply and logistic costs. In this context, as you know, Heidelberg has already announced an increase in prices. Overall, we expect a slight effect profit in the current year. And with that, I hand it back to you, Rainer, to round things up.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#3

Thank you, Marcus. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope we have been able to make the new perspective of Heidelberg clear to you. Therefore, I would like to conclude our remarks with a clear commitment. We want to and we will do everything we can to create added value for our customers, our shareholders and our employees, and we will do so sustainably. Accordingly, I will conclude by briefly revisiting the highlights of our presentation today, the key points and milestones that you should ideally take with you when you leave this call. Firstly, the broad market recovery in order intake and backlog is clearly noticeable, a very good basis for a planned future growth. Thanks to the successful completed homework and a consistent implementation of the transformation, we are sustainably reducing structural costs. In cash management, we focus on sustainable generation of substantial cash flows. Net financial debt is at an all-time low and our operating profitability is picking up significantly. In the future, we want to grow profitably in our core markets, especially in packaging, printing in China and with digital business model. In addition, we are only at the beginning of an enormous growth spirit from new innovative offers, for example in e-mobility, and we will expand more strongly outside the core activities in the future. Thank you for your attention and your questions now, please.

Operator

operator
#4

We can now take our first question from Daniel Gleim of Stifel.

Daniel Gleim

analyst
#5

Actually 2 of them. The first one would be on the order intake momentum now in your second quarter, what you have seen so far. If you could give us a little bit of guidance or color, what you're witnessing in your respective end markets at the moment. Do we see a slight feedback from the very strong order momentum in the first quarter? That would be rather helpful. That's my question #1.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#6

Yes. Okay. Mr. Gleim. I mean, obviously, we could not repeat the record volume of June amounting to EUR 263 million, which was, I think, the strongest June since 2013 or something like this. So really, really high. And obviously, driven not only by market recovery and rebound but actually the Chinese Print Trade show. Order intake in July was slightly better than expected, amounting to roundabout EUR 200 million, so not as high as June, but still is quite okay, let's say, like this, 10% more than we expected. But we have to see what the next months will bring and therefore, we remain a bit cautious. But still, we see that the next quarter will be fine.

Daniel Gleim

analyst
#7

What is the annual growth rate of July with EUR 200 million?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#8

The annual growth rate compared to previous quarter -- the same quarter last year, that would be 39%. EUR 200 million more. We started with EUR 600 million and that was basically EUR 200 million more so now amounted to EUR 800 million something, 39%.

Daniel Gleim

analyst
#9

And if you look at July in isolation, I understood that this EUR 200 million in order intake, what is the growth rate of July '21 over July 20?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#10

Well, I'm not sure we have that number handy here.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#11

But it's a significant growth. We have to look it up quickly.

Daniel Gleim

analyst
#12

No problem. Maybe I can start with the second question in the meantime.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#13

Yes, do that, please.

Daniel Gleim

analyst
#14

So could you give us, please, an update on your asset management or asset sales, better to say? You mentioned that you have the U.K. planned for the second half. If you could please repeat what you expect in terms of gain from that sale? And if you could scale a little bit, what other projects you have in the pipeline? And what could incrementally come in this fiscal, if any?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#15

So basically, it's -- we're consolidating, as you know, here in Walldorf-Wiesloch and that's, as you know, amounted to some cash flows of EUR 30 million, if I remember correctly. At the same time, there was not a lot of earning incorporated since we had to provide for relocation. And therefore, basically we don't have an extra earnings from that. Now Brentford is a bit of the same. Actually, we're consolidating our properties in the U.K. Therefore we believe that building that will lead to an effect of roundabout EUR 25 million in terms of cash -- sorry, in terms of EBIT and the cash will be subdivided in I think 3 installments and amounting to roundabout EUR 40 million. And I think, ultimately, we'll reach the peak of that in financial year 23. We are thinking, as you know, of divesting another part in the Wiesloch-Walldorf area, which has I think comparable size of tranche one; slightly lower, but it's just not specific enough to date this even. I'm quite sure we will not see an effect in this financial year. And at the same time, we are obviously looking at our property work over where we can sort of consolidate areas. And therefore, basically, we use even run rates and cost. Now coming back to your question in order intake, actually, this is an improvement of 20%, EUR 201 million in July 22 -- financial year '22. Obviously in last financial year, it was EUR 167 million.

Operator

operator
#16

[Operator Instructions] We can now take our next question from Stefan Augustin of Warburg Research.

Stefan Augustin

analyst
#17

Yes. My question would actually go into the direction of the raw material price increases and newer price increases. So you announced that you will raise the prices. Is that already broadly done? Or is it, let's say, coming with the August and that is a little bit behind your expectations, how the orders are going to develop sequentially? And what happened basically since we last talked? Obviously, the input prices likely have rosen -- or risen more. But how does that actually affect you in H2? And what are your steps to mitigate? And how does this all play out with your, let's say, own, let's say, larger value-add production as you produce part of the electronics yourself, you have own casting and so on and so on? So you partially -- partial of the price increases in the raw material should be actually able to be passed on to other customers as you don't use all the products that you produce in the electronics and the cast steel. So how does this all play out effectively on a net base over the next quarters?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#18

Okay. We have just decided, Mr. Augustin, that we give you like first my view and then Rainer will add on my view. First of all, you're correct. We have seen an increase in pricing in raw materials on one hand and on the other hand, in logistics, and that's basically driven by the international development. And you're absolutely right that we have reacted to this by communicating a price increase with effect of July 1. And that was done after carefully analyzing the situation. And by that, we hope that with the incoming orders after July 1, we have not provided for the material price increases that we see in the marketplace. And given what we have in stock already, given what we have in terms of order intake already, we hope to balance things out by this price effect that, as you know, amounted to 3 percentage points. That's clearly on one hand. The other hand is -- just give me a second. So therefore, we think we have compensated and provided for the price effect. Might be wrong. Obviously, we don't know for sure, but given that we have very experienced controllers and purchasers, we feel quite safe with that. On the other hand, we see a different development when it comes to e-mobility. So Hundsdorfer was talking about printing machines and therefore, I would say we have to mitigate the price effect. We don't have like a quantity effect on availability as of now. We're not seeing this we're not experiencing this. In terms of electromobility, we're not hit by a price effect, but actually, we're hit by not getting enough quantities of ships and therefore, even though we're ramping up capacity, we're not meeting the demand. That's not specific to us. That's actually specific to everybody in the marketplace, but it's obviously a downside of the market as fines as we tripled sales as compared to last year already and we're profitable by that. We could do even more and even better if we only had supply any quantities that we expect. And from that, I will hand it off to you.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#19

Yes, I can only add to that. Of course, even before we increase the prices, reduce the room for negotiations for our sales force in order to improve the price/quality. So we immediately reacted on that and all new orders being presented to our -- all-new quotations presented to our customers since July are really with the price increases. So I'm very confident that we'll manage to pass on those price increases. In regards of availability of components, it has been very helpful that Heidelberg has a longstanding relation to all our suppliers. And we barely buy anything on the spot market, we usually have longstanding contracts with our suppliers. So we are very close to them, not only to our customers but also to suppliers. And we had so far no breakdown of any of our supply chains. We could fix all in time. So no machine couldn't be finished and of course, we could grow faster in e-mobility if you would receive more processes and semiconductor. But still of what we can achieve is keep the supply chain stable across the board. And then there comes something in as an advantage, which usually is maybe seen as disadvantaged. The very large manufacturing depth of Heidelberg makes it a little easier to control your supply and also the increased costs in that end because if you have your own foundry, you buy just the raw iron and scrap. And these costs are only a fairly small part for the finished machinery component. So this is a bit the advantage. And of course, you control the destination, you serve your own needs first and then you serve the other customers. That's how the game is. So the disadvantage at the moment turns into an advantage and it is less and less a cost issue because if the foundry is fully loaded, it is quite performant.

Stefan Augustin

analyst
#20

Okay. So I get it correctly, the 20% year-over-year increase in July is already with the new prices partial from the statement.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#21

Partially.

Stefan Augustin

analyst
#22

Okay.

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#23

The big issue is -- technically, you're correct. But on the other hand, if you have almost fixed your negotiations with your customers and you just find the contract. And technically, it's July, but materially it's probably in June. This is why Rainer says partially. So I would say more and more in July we see the price increase and that should actually compensate for the material price increases.

Stefan Augustin

analyst
#24

And to the understanding from the supply chain, I would, let's say, conclude from your statements that what we will -- or what will be sales in Q3 and Q4, you already have the material more or less negotiated and at your hand and there is no, let's say, extra risk from spot market fluctuations to the profitability of these sales?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#25

That's correct. We have long-term contracts with our key suppliers. So there are no surprises to be expected.

Operator

operator
#26

We can now take our next question from Stefan Maichl of LBBW.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#27

Yes, Stefan Maichl from LBBW in Stuttgart. Some questions from my side, please. The first one is on your sales development, what we might model for the next quarter. I mean you have a record order book in the end of Q1, above the level that we have seen. I mean, I want to say in Q1 2013, so really a record order book. Should we see a substantial sales increase in the second quarter already? Or does not backend loaded the second half? That's the first question.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#28

Yes. We have a record order book. Of course, you may recall that from the raw iron to ship machine, it takes 9 months. So quite a few of those orders we booked today will be shipped by the end of the year just before Christmas. So it will ramp up continuously over the next month and so the sales will steadily increase over the next month, basically month by month. Now in August, as you all know, we have shut down, like many companies. So office will be probably a little shorter. But after August, September, October, November, as usual, those numbers will increase and we will work from this very excellent order book, which by the way has also -- we never mentioned that anywhere, a very nice mix is to the big extent 70 by 100. So basically, right in the core in the profitable core of Heidelberg's portfolio.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#29

Okay. So it is likely that in the second quarter, sales might be still below EUR 500 million. And then in Q4, over EUR 500 million, and maybe in the last quarter, EUR 700 million -- EUR 600 million, EUR 700 million?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#30

I'm very optimistic that we will have a very nice Q2. Let's keep it at that way.

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#31

And then we mustn't get too excited on the other hand. I mean right now, our guidance is one -- more than EUR 2 billion, just for calculation's sake, let's say, EUR 2.1 billion, 7% EBITDA margin. That would amount to EUR 146 million, EUR 147 million as we said. And that will be the thing at least to expect from us. And this is what we now can guide and nothing more. If things get better and then we're happy to adjust this, but right now, we don't know the effect of the pandemic. Therefore, let's be careful. I know if guys are disappointed a bit, but we have over-promised in the past, we will not do that again.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#32

Okay. Then in July, you have mentioned you have an order intake of EUR 200 million, around EUR 200 million. I mean in China was at the end of June. Is it likely that some of the orders will be booked in July, therefore, this figure is impacted -- still impacted by this trade fair?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#33

Of course, that will not only end in July. A show has an effect for the next 3 months where you'll see I think some good results from the trade show. You probably know, you have significantly more orders, which are soft orders. Heidelberg books a order when the down payment is there, not before. To get the down payment, the contracts signed in all details takes sometimes days, sometimes weeks, in some cases months. So there will be quite some impact of the China Print also in August and September.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#34

And could you give a rough ballpark figure of the Print China impact we are seeing in July?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#35

No. It's hard to say.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#36

Okay. Then my last question is on special items. I mean last year in the first quarter, you had to book EUR 20 million of restructuring costs. Have you booked any of these costs in the first quarter?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#37

In general, we said the restructuring costs for this year are basically neglectable. By that, we mean that the range for the whole year of a small one digital figure in the million. So basically we are seeing like right now, as we speak, maybe EUR 2 million. So that's a rounding in my calculation, but nothing that really makes a lot of impact.

Stefan Maichl

analyst
#38

Okay. And my last question is on financial results, you have seen only EUR 8 million in the first quarter. Is this a thing we might take by 4 for the full year? Or is it too optimistic?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#39

That should be the ballpark figure, yes.

Operator

operator
#40

We can now take our next question from Peter Rothenaicher of Baader Bank Munich.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#41

I have one question regarding your personnel expenses. So I was a little bit wondering about this high amount of EUR 199 million in the first quarter. Was there any special effect in? And is it expected then to multiply this by 4? So given the strong reduction in the number of employees, this figure looks quite heavenly.

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#42

Yes. I know where you're coming from. I don't think I have all the numbers handy, but basically, you should not compare this number to last year's figures because they have been deflated by the effect of short-term work at the one hand and on the other hand the pension things. So therefore, the proper comparison would be to compare to the year before. And then you see a significant reduction. And that basically is then a more like-for-like comparison. As I said, I don't think we have to have the numbers here, but basically, that's the way to look at things. And then you're not distorting the picture by the EUR 73 million and the EUR 35 million that basically we have spent -- we have gained basically in short-term work last -- in the first quarter of last year. So basically, personnel expenses were on the like -- on a comparison year-on-year, you have EUR 100 million extra effects less in personnel expenses. And therefore, you should look at financial year '20. And I think actually, if I remember correctly, you should see a decrease in cost of around EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million, something like that I think should be the right number. But we're looking at that as we speak and maybe I can give you an update on that.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#43

Okay. And second question, we've talked about...

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#44

Sorry, EUR 40 million, yes. Sorry, the number is EUR 40 million actually, even higher than I remembered. So that is basically -- if you go for a like-for-like comparison, this is basically how we brought the numbers down already. And mind you, as we said, we are seeing now that we have reduced head count by around about 2,000, which is even more by the end of financial year '23 and be a bit patient because people have signed, but they move into transfer companies and early retirement as we speak, month by month by month. So you will see a declining effect over the next month. So it will develop.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#45

So is it then fair to assume that this EUR 199 million will perhaps become even less in the upcoming quarters? Or do we have the counter effect from the higher production volume?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#46

Yes. It will slowly but steadily go down and as we said, we're looking at a number of EUR 140 million cost reduction and structural costs and the bulk of it is obviously personnel expenses. And as we said, around that we would gather that 80% to 90% are sustainable because I mean obviously we have tariff increases and we have to see what the development here is once the trade unions will negotiate with the employers. So that would be something that we have to sort of remain patient for and see what the effects are. But on the other hand, as I said, the bulk of the EUR 140 million that you will see in structural cost reduction as compared to the starting point, obviously, is coming from personnel effect. Therefore, you're right to assume that this will go down month by month and steadily.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#47

Okay. And the...

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#48

Sorry, just let me tell you, that's already effected in our calculation because we know exactly when people are leaving. Sorry.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#49

Yes. Another question is on the strong increase in freight costs. So is this hurting you in your P&L? Or are there higher freight costs being paid by your customers?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#50

The freight out is usually paid by our customers. Of course, the freight in is on our side. So to a small extent, yes. But this is also covered with the price increase. That's part of the cost compensation we try to achieve with the price increase. So we try to give the freight -- the increased freight cost inbound also to the customer indirectly with the price increase and the freight cost out is typically on the customer side.

Peter Rothenaicher

analyst
#51

Okay. And last question, is anything new regarding your pay and production model that you can finance also then the machines?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#52

You mean any news in terms of subscription and by that you're hinting at in a new partnership basically. Yes, we're still in finalizing the negotiations. It's a bit a drag. There's obviously -- now that we're talking about risk and profit sharing and what the structure would be, we have received a proposal and has made a counterproposal, and we're hoping to reach an agreement after the summer break.

Operator

operator
#53

We have no further questions over the phone at this time. Apologies, we do have a question, if you would like to take it?

Marcus Wassenberg

executive
#54

Of course.

Operator

operator
#55

Okay. So we can take our next question now from Michael Junghans from Commerzbank.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#56

I have a few questions left, if I may. The first is on your momentum in order intake. You already gave an indication for July. I would like to know if you could elaborate a little bit on why the demand in North America did not keep pace with your other major regions? So if I compare it against Q4 of last year, we actually saw that North America in order intake trended down versus Q4. So any specific reasons why this was the case? It would be helpful. And the second question on order intake, just a small one. Could you quantify the positive impact on order intake you saw from the China Print Trade show? With the first set of questions relating to order intake that I have left here.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#57

We have seen also a very nice development in North America in the last few weeks, also increased activities, business coming back for our customers. So very much the same picture. Maybe not as strong than Central Europe yet, but it will come back in the next weeks. Very strong. The pipeline, the order pipeline, the project pipeline is well filled. So we're very optimistic and we also will see a strong order entry in the next weeks from North America.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#58

China?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#59

China has been strong except 1 quarter. The first quarter of last fiscal year was down. The rest was stronger than prior to corona. And this is continuing even beyond the trade show. So we will have with a good probability probably the strongest business in China ever in this fiscal year. The year is not over in China, the time between placing an order and shipping is much shorter than in the rest of the world. So usually we still sell machines in January for the fiscal year. So yes, we're very optimistic, but the year is not over. So we'll have to see. But the trend is very strong in China, in particular in packaging, in particular with our new product portfolio, extremely strong with the CX 104. Just to give you one idea, which shows how great this product was received. Just through the show, we had already orders of 500 printing units for the CX 104 and most of them were from Chinese customers. Customers ordered the machine, which have never seen it before just from the specification of it.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#60

Yes. Understood. So what -- just a few minutes before you said that, you mentioned the roundabout a mid-double digit ballpark figure that you gave as an indication for the China Print Trade show effect on order intake, right, for Q1?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#61

Yes.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#62

Okay.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#63

I would say that, that is probably -- we can say little bit more concrete is EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million, in that range.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#64

Okay. Understood. Helpful. Next question is on your Wallbox business. So you have announced to double the capacity once again after the revenue in your [indiscernible] charging even it almost tripled year-over-year. Could you please remind us on the targeted capacity of this unit would be able to achieve in revenue terms once this capacity expansion is completed? And in terms of long-term EBITDA margins. So what do you see as at -- as a sustainable long-term EBITDA margin for the Wallbox unit, if this would be carved out from your organization?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#65

Let's start with the easy question. What we want to have, and I don't talk EBITDA, I talk EBIT in that case, it's in the range of 15%. We are closing into that and that's, of course, our long-term target for that business. And we will -- but this depends a little bit on the availability of electronic components. From a production capability capacity, we would be able to double the business again, but we'll see how quickly we can ramp up the supply of electronic components.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#66

Okay. Last question is on free cash flow. So is it fair to assume that, thanks to the high vertical integration of your machinery business that you actually expect no significant impact on your working capital or specifically inventory management as a consequence of substation bottleneck in the sector for this year?

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#67

As I mentioned before, we benefit now from a very good cooperation with our suppliers, a very good management of our supply chain. So we have organized our business with our suppliers to a big extent in a way just in time, just in sequence. So there is, on the one hand, no buildup of inventory. On the other hand, because we are managing it very closely, also at least so far, and what we can see in the future, no interruption of our supply chain. Of course, it takes sometimes extra effort to talk to our suppliers to make sure you get the components you need next Monday when you need them next Monday. And sometimes you have to shift because you don't get them on Monday, but on Tuesday, so you shift manufacturing sequences. But so far and also what I know looking forward for the next quarters, we have our supply chain well under control. We mentioned very closely and no buildup of inventory because that's not necessarily the solution because we are not buying components on the spot market anyhow, it doesn't -- it wouldn't make sense. We maintain our supply chain just in time, just in sequence as we did before. We have, in some areas, but that's more internally between Germany and China, longer transportation times due to the logistic problems. This will have a slight increase in inventory, but it's not really noticeable. Because on the other hand, we have, with this order backlog, of course, also a very nice situation with the down payments. So in view of net working capital is compensating.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#68

Yes. Understood. Very last question. Just if I may, about the segment report...

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#69

Yes. Go ahead. No problem.

Michael Junghans

analyst
#70

Overall in the presentation. Could you give us an indication about the service revenue share in print solution and in packaging solutions, respectively, would be helpful.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#71

It's roughly 50-50.

Operator

operator
#72

[Operator Instructions]

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#73

No more questions.

Operator

operator
#74

No further questions over the phones.

Rainer Hundsdörfer

executive
#75

Okay. Then I'd like to close. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your interest in Heidelberg. I think we can show Heidelberg is well underway to deliver what we've promised as well and the way to become a profitable company moving from manufacturer of printing presses to a well diverse technology company. I'm already looking forward to our next call in fall in 3 months, where we can show you that we continue on this path and until then, have a great summer, stay sound and healthy. Talk to you then in October. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#76

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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