Heineken N.V. (HEIA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 22, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Raoul-Tristan Van Strien
executiveGreat. Good afternoon -- good morning, everyone, actually. Thank you for joining us for today's live webcast of our 2025 Q3 trading update. Your host will be Harold van den Broek, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. . The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Harold. .
Harold Broek
executiveThank you, Tristan, and welcome, everyone, indeed. Let me take a few minutes to give you a brief summary of the quarter and then open the line for your questions. Quarter 3 was a challenging quarter with macroeconomic volatility persisting, compounded by other cyclical factors dampening consumer sentiment and frankly, weighing on industry trends. In this environment, however, our advantaged geographical footprint helps us adapt as solid performances in Africa and Asia partially offset the Americas and Europe. In this context, we were pleased we were able to gain market share in the substantial majority of our markets. During the quarter, we also announced the FIFCO transition in Central America, adding to a growth profile and earnings accretion upon completion in the first half of next year. And last week, as we stay firm on our evergreen strategy, we announced an acceleration in our digital journey, and the reshaping of our organization, including a change at the headquarters in Amsterdam, leading to substantial reductions of roles there. Taking into account the challenging quarter and with high confidence in our EUR 0.5 billion gross savings target delivery for 2025, we now anticipate our full year organic operating profit (beia) growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. Let's take a look at our financial highlights for the quarter. Net revenue (beia) for quarter 3 came in at EUR 7.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% organically with year-to-date positively growing 1.3%. Net revenue (beia) per hectoliter increased by 3.6%, led by pricing to mitigate inflationary pressures and by a positive mix effect from portfolio premiumization. Beer volume was down 4.3% organically for the quarter, with growth in Africa and Middle East, but declining volumes in Europe and the Americas. Our premium beer volume was down 2.2%, with Brand Heineken down 0.6%. Though year-to-date, both are growing, further building the quality volume mix in our portfolio. Let's take a look at the moving components of net revenue (beia). Price/mix was up with 3.3%, led by pricing of 2.3% to mitigate inflationary pressure, as already said, and by a positive mix effect of 1% from portfolio premiumization, especially in Africa, Middle East and in Asia Pacific. Total consolidated volume on an organic basis was down 3.8%, performing ahead of beer due to the strong performance of our beyond beer brands in Africa, Middle East, such as Bedele and Savanna. This resulted in an organic decrease for the quarter of EUR 23 million or 0.3%. Year-to-date, net revenue increased organically with EUR 295 million or 1.3%. The translation of foreign currencies had a negative effect of EUR 304 million or 4% mainly due to the strengthening of the euro against the Mexican peso, Ethiopian birr and Brazilian real. Consolidation changes were minimal this quarter. Let me unpack the Heineken performance for a minute in the quarter and year-to-date. Heineken volume fell slightly by 0.6% as double-digit growth in 21 markets could not offset contraction in Brazil and in the U.S.A. as the overall beer market sell and distributors destock. Year-to-date, Heineken continues to be in growth. Heineken 0.0 declined by 1.8%, similarly related to the distributor destocking in Brazil and the U.S. Nevertheless, in the U.S., based on depletions, Heineken 0.0 grew for the 24th consecutive quarter in a row. And globally, Heineken Silver grew in the high 20s with continued strong performances in China and Vietnam. Then on to our results by region, and let me start with Africa Middle East. We performed well there with all our key markets contributing. Net revenue (beia) grew 14.9% organically with price/mix on a constant geographic basis, up 13.6% driven by strong pricing across the region and positive mix. Beer volume increased organically by 2%, with strong performances throughout including Ethiopia, South Africa as well as smaller markets such as Namibia, Rwanda and Tunisia, more than offsetting contraction in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Throughout Africa, we delivered solid market share gains. In Nigeria, organic net revenue (beia) grew in the 30s with robust market share gains in an economically challenging environment. Volume declined by a mid-single digit. Significant pricing and positive portfolio mix shift drove strong growth in revenue per hectoliter, both in local currency and in euro terms. Premium beer rose in the double digits, driven by regions; South, Desperados and Heineken. Heineken Beverages are multi-category beverage business in East and Southern Africa, delivered another sequentially improved performance. Beer volume in South Africa increased by high single digits. Growth was broad-based with Amstel, Windhoek and Heineken in growth. Our cider and RTD portfolio also delivered solid growth led by Bernini, Savanna and the launch of the new Mainstay cocktail range. We are also pleased to see excellent performance in Heineken Beverages International, led by Namibia, Kenya and Tanzania. Then over to Ethiopia where our organic net revenue (beia) grew by over 50%, driven by beer volume increasing by double digit and outperforming the market. Our leading mainstream brand, Harar, continues to be the growth engine, thanks to its distinctive iconography differentiated taste profile and continued regional expansion, cementing its position as a truly national brand. Let's now move to the Americas. Net revenue (beia) declined 5.5% organically, and beer volume was down 7.4% and the region was disproportionately affected by subdued consumer sentiment and macroeconomic developments, including trade uncertainty, which we consider to be cyclical in nature. Despite the soft environment, we gained share in the vast majority of our markets across the region, especially in Brazil and Mexico. Price mix on a constant geographic basis was up 1.2%, led by pricing across the region and the continued premiumization of our portfolio. In Mexico, revenues were broadly stable with beer volume down by low single digit as we gained share in a soft market with weak consumer sentiment. We delivered solid growth in Tecate Original and Dos Equis and also in premium where Miller High Life performed very well. In Brazil, beer shipment volume contracted in the mid-teens, in part driven by the inventory buildup ahead of the price increase taken by the 1st of July. Beer shipment volume year-to-date is down by a mid-single digit. Based on the sell-out data, however, we gained significant market share in a market that declined by a high single digit for the quarter. Pricing increased by a low single digit. Heineken and Amstel declined in volume in quarter 3 but continued to gain share, while Eisenbahn delivered strong growth in the affordable premium segment. In the United States, shipment volume was down in the mid-teens, reflecting distributor stock adjustments in a tough beer market that with disproportionate impact on core consumers of Heineken and Dos Equis. Heineken 0.0 depletions grew by low single digit and as I mentioned earlier, recorded its 24th consecutive quarter of uninterrupted growth. Now on to Asia Pacific. Net revenue (beia) increased organically by 5.6% as price/mix on a constant geographical basis was up 5.9%. Beer volume declined by 0.8% as strong growth in Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos could only partially offset lower volume in India and Cambodia. In Cambodia, our business continues to be challenged in a fiercely competitive environment. Consolidated premium beer grew by a high single digit, led by Heineken -- led by Heineken Silver, I should say, Kingfisher Ultra Max and our stout portfolio. In Vietnam, beer volume was up by high single digit ahead of the growing market. The Heineken brand grew nearly 40%, led by continued success of Heineken Silver. Our mainstream portfolio grew double digits with Larue Smooth performing strongly. In India, beer volume fell by a mid-single digit, impacted by an unusually strong monsoon season, but we still outperformed the market. Price/mix expanded by a high single digit, supported by pricing in key states and portfolio mix with premium volume growing in the teens. In China, Heineken Original, Heineken Silver and Amstel maintained strong momentum with licensed volume growing in the mid-20s and gaining market share, .Amstel, once again, doubled its volume this quarter. And finally, a word on Europe. Net revenue (beia) declined 3.6% organically, while price/mix on a constant geographic basis increased 0.9%. Beer volume decreased organically by 4.7% and solid growth in the U.K., Ireland and Portugal was more than offset by declines elsewhere. Nevertheless, we saw favorable channel developments with the on-trade performing better in the quarter, though not in growth. In the U.K., beer volume increased by low single digits, outperforming the market. Positive price/mix was driven by pricing and portfolio shifts. Cruzcampo, our authentic Spanish lager from Seville continued its strong trajectory with volume growth exceeding 50%. Murphy's Stout continue to expand and in ciders, interest continue to reach growth trajectory. In France, the Netherlands and Germany, volume recovery, however, was slower than anticipated following the conclusion of retail negotiations in the beginning of the quarter. It took longer to build back to normal distribution level, and we expect normalization in the near term and saw improvement as the quarter progressed. The Polish market continues to be weak. Last week, we also announced the intended closure of our Namyslów brewery as we continue to reshape our business. In Austria, the impact of the recently introduced can deposit scheme continues to affect consumer demand. Spanish volumes were stable, and we saw strong performance in Portugal, growing beer volume by mid-single digit, led by Sagres while Birra Moretti and Murphy's Stout drove the volume growth and market share gains led in Ireland. Let's now move to the outlook for the 2025 financial year. We anticipate ongoing macroeconomic volatility that may impact our consumers, including weak consumer sentiment, global inflationary pressures and currency devaluation in relation particularly to a stronger Europe. Our business continues to adapt with agility to these market conditions. Given the challenging quarter just behind us and based on our current assessment of short-term consumer demand, we expect volume to decline modestly for the year 2025. Taking stock of this volume outlook and our confidence in achieving our productivity target of EUR 500 million, we anticipate our full year organic operating profit (beia) growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. Now before we go into Q&A, just once again to summarize. Quarter 3 was a challenging quarter with macroeconomic volatility persisting compounded by other cyclical factors, dampening consumer sentiment and weighing on industry trends. We had solid performances in Africa and Asia, somewhat moderating the pressure we saw in the Americas and in Europe. We were also able to gain market share in the substantial majority of our markets. We're very excited about the FIFCO transaction in Central America, adding to our growth profile and earnings accretion upon completion in the first half of next year. And we will continue to stay the course on our evergreen journey. And as I just said, we anticipate our full year organic operating profit (beia) growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. With that, I would like to open the line for Q&A. Thank you for listening.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Edward Mundy of Jefferies.
Edward Mundy
analystSo the first question is really around the commentary within the -- that the macro volatility became more pronounced in the third quarter, which would suggest that the environment became trickier than you would have expected, yet you've still managed to deliver? Or you're still keeping your guidance range of 4% to 8%, albeit at the lower end of it. The question is really how has your approach to risk management evolved to identify those risks and adapt your plan in real time to still be able to deliver on your guidance range? And what are the things you've leaned on in particular to do that? It's the first question. And then the second question, just on Brazil. You flagged that sellout trends were better than sell-in trends. I was just hoping to get a bit of a feel as to whether that shipment mismatch has washed through as at the end of the third quarter and as you go into Q4, sell-in should more broadly match sell-out. .
Harold Broek
executiveThank you, Ed. Both really good questions. Indeed, the macroeconomics volatility that we really firmly believe is cyclical in nature, as we said, was more pronounced in quarter 3. And what you do see is that particularly in the Americas, for instance, you see the beer market was actually softening. And I already caution that if you can recall, in our first half results, where we specifically called out Brazil as early signs of consumer sentiment turning -- given the tariff uncertainty revolving around there. And that really played out more pronounced than we had anticipated, but we did have it on our radar screen. So indeed, to your point, our risk management has definitely evolved, and we spoke about that as well for 2 reasons. First, our business is really starting to pay much more attention to macroeconomic indicators that may have an impact on, for example, funding of smaller businesses, overall consumer set, remittances. So those we see as really the leading indicators that we should factor in and base our risk management approach on. The second thing is to really prepare for scenarios. And that is also the agility that we are often referring to that we're not only sticking to one fixed plan, but that we really have plan A, B and C, depending on these lead indicators. And I think that takes time. It takes practice. So by no means are we perfect, but that is certainly in the world of today, something that we're paying a lot of attention to. Now then what are the implications and why we are confident to stay within our 4% to 8% range, albeit at the lower end, is we have consciously invested in the markets where we believe we see a turn of -- the tables turn. For example, we spoke hesitantly but still hopefully, about the market growth and our market share momentum in Vietnam and consciously invested last year and the beginning of this year to fuel that growth with a differentiated portfolio. You now see that momentum coming in, and that is one of those offsets that we were talking about. In Ethiopia, to give another example, we really are very pleased with how the business is performing. And also there, we adapted to hyperinflation and our business really came out stronger is what we believe, and they're now repaying their debts as they would call it themselves. You also see the cost measures that we've taken in Nigeria, but also the continued progress in South Africa. We haven't taken shortcuts. And at this moment in time, these markets that I'm just calling out are able to rebalance somewhat the trickier times that we see in the Americas and to some extent, in Europe. So that is really the portfolio management that we're aiming to do, and that's why we can, together, of course, with a very good grip on our cost performance agenda, able to stay within that range. To your second question, the Brazil sell-in versus sell-out, I also recall that this was a key theme in our half 1 results, where we already flagged that we had to take one-off adjustment measures. The only thing, of course, that you will appreciate is you take a snapshot about what needs to happen in which channel and what level of stock adjustment we need to take. But if the market continues to go backwards, like we've seen in quarter 3 in Brazil, that impact still worked through in the quarter. And together with the pre-price increase stock up, that needed time to rebalance. And to your question, yes, we believe that at the end of September, that is now fully balanced out, and we see healthy stock levels in as far as we see the market. We don't have 100% coverage, but we got a good coverage about the stock in trade that we see out there. So it should be normalized in quarter 4.
Operator
operatorThank you. The next question goes to Sanjeet Aujla of UBS.
Sanjeet Aujla
analystA couple from me, please. Just firstly, on pricing, in the Americas, still seems to be quite low in the context of where I think at H1, you highlighted higher transactional FX headwinds in the region. So can you just give us a flavor of how you're pricing in Mexico and Brazil relative to the competitors and how those price increases are landing? That's my first question. And my second question is just back on Europe. Can you give us a sense of how much of the Q3 decline is related to the slow recovery following the resolution of the customer disputes? And as we look forward, do you expect to fully recover or recover at least the vast majority of what you've lost in the first 3 quarters as a function of those disputes?
Harold Broek
executiveYes. So look, we're really trying to manage pricing, of course, by getting the best balance between two. The first, what will we need to do for a healthy business. And indeed, to your point, foreign exchange has significantly moved year-on-year, and we do need to take that into account. And that's why we also took later, than our competitor this year, pricing in Brazil. But also the other reality is consumers and competitors. And therefore, we really are quite disciplined market by market to look at what is the right pricing and revenue margin growth strategy to not lose consumers and to not be outpriced versus competition because that would really have a significant impact on our market shares. And as you saw, we are still very happy with our market share gains to date in both Mexico and Brazil. So we will continue to look at pricing. We've taken July in Brazil, and we are taking pricing in Mexico around quarter 4. But we do that in moderation because we also really look at the competitive environment. And if needed, we will compete for volume share accordingly. So we're going to pay close attention to make sure that we stay on the healthy side of that range. But we do expect a little bit of pricing also to come in the second half or in the remainder of the year. Now on Europe, let me just be short there. Indeed, it was slower recovery, and it was basically driven by the fact that both market sentiment is relatively weak but also in those stores, we have to organize for shelf replenishment. It's not like an army of people were just waiting to vacate shelf positions and put our product back in stock. There were no empty shelves. We just had to renegotiate store by store and bring distribution back to expected levels. And frankly, that took a lot longer than I would have liked and I also would have expected. So I'm not happy with how long that has taken. And I know that the team is really on top of this week by week. There are trackers in place at store and outlet level to see what can be done. We believe that this is really now behind us. We're at the last 5% to 10% of claiming back the distribution. And therefore, we expect certainly by the end of this year, if not sooner, that this situation is firmly behind us.
Sanjeet Aujla
analystAnd sorry, just a quick follow-up. Do you think you can fully recover or at least recover the vast majority of what you've lost? Or is that a difficult thing to call out?
Harold Broek
executiveNo, I think we have -- and as I said before, we have negotiated a full recovery, and we really are working hard to achieve that. And maybe just to give you a bit of a point of indication about the magnitude, about 1/3 of the volume loss in Europe in the quarter was related to this late restocking. The rest is mostly a combination of market share in some of the markets like Poland and general market softness.
Operator
operatorThe next question goes to Simon Hales of Citi.
Simon Hales
analystSo just a couple for me then. I mean, Harold, could you just delve a little bit deeper into perhaps the underlying market dynamics you're seeing in Brazil and Mexico as you've been through the quarter and come into Q4? I mean, in particular, what are you seeing around the state of the consumer? Any real changes in consumer offtake behavior that you're noting in the current environment? And then my second question was around your comments around the improving on-premise performance in Europe that you noted. How broad-based was that? And could you talk a little bit about the performance of the U.K. business in that context?
Harold Broek
executiveSure. So let's start with the underlying dynamics. It's a good and interesting question and actually one that makes me happy to talk about it because we really, really do firmly believe that what we currently see in the Americas is cyclical. And why do I say that? Because the beer fundamentals, for example, in Brazil remain very strong. There is continued population growth. There is income growth, although at this moment in time, uncertainty because of the tariffs and the high interest rate that we talked about last time. But interestingly, what we do see is that the competitive environment is actually quite healthy in that sense. Both our main competitors and ourselves are really starting to continue accelerating the development of the beer category, driving premiumization, affordable premium. The up-trading in the market continues. And therefore, if you see the volume impact in the market, it really is economy variants that are continuing to lose. So we believe that the dynamics, the underlying fundamentals of population income are there and that the category development is actually pretty healthy. We also have indications, but of course, this is not for me to comment further on, but that the Petrópolis competitor is really struggling somewhat. And therefore, the market dynamics as such are really conducive to further category development and therefore, shifting towards mainstream and premium. And this is exactly what we have been championing for so many years. It's also important to realize that Heineken Brazil in aggregate continues to gain market share and that Amstel and Heineken continue to do so as well. So within a subdued market context in the quarter, we actually see a continued strengthening of our portfolio, now also with Eisenbahn as a third brand, early days, but coming into default. So I believe that actually what we see is a temporary adjustment of the market. What [ Maurizio ] always tells me is that Brazil is a very fast market. It can go up and down relatively quickly because people are agile in how they adjust. So we're hoping that once the uncertainty is over, we actually see a continuation of the momentum in Brazil. In Mexico, I think all of this is also true, but at way lower levels. We believe that there is still a bit of a weaker consumer sentiment in Mexico. But also there, the beer category growth was a bit in decline, but way less pronounced. And also here, we see healthy competitive dynamics between our main competitor and ourselves. And we see the early signs of premiumization also happening in that market. So overall, zooming out, we don't see any change to our strategy or to the potential in both markets, Simon, which for us is very important because otherwise, of course, that is a different adjustment that we need to take. Now on to the U.K. U.K. was actually a very good performance for us. I don't have the -- numbers at hand, but you will have seen from the announcement that actually our growth in the U.K. was pretty good. Organic revenue growth grew by mid-single digit and beer volume was also up low single digits. Both were outperforming the market. And Cruzcampo was again the champion in its field. Very strong trajectory, but we also saw, for example, Murphy's Stout and [ cider ] really starting to drive the further performance. On U.K. [indiscernible], I think we need to get back to you, Simon. Usually, I have that at hand, but I don't at the moment.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes to Gen Cross of BNP Paribas.
Gen Cross
analystA couple of questions from me. So just first on COGS. Could you give us any early indication of kind of directionally what you think the outlook might be for variable cost per hectoliter in 2026 and particularly with respect to transactional FX, I think you might have had quite long hedges, particularly in Mexico. So any color there would be very helpful. And then in Vietnam, I mean performance looks like it continues to be very strong. Just an update on what you're seeing in the market there. And just with respect to Q4, if we just add on, obviously, you've got a bit of a headwind from the later timing of Chinese New Year. Just any indication of how significant that might be for the quarter would be very helpful.
Harold Broek
executiveGen, I really am not going to go into the forward-looking statement at this moment in time. It feels a bit, let's call it, childish not to do that because actually, on the Capital Markets Day tomorrow, I am going to do that. So hopefully, you can wait a day and look there in how we think about input cost outlook. And currency hedges, I can give you a bit of an early indication on that. But look, usually, what we do, as you know, we're hedging about 12 to 18 months out. We indeed are trying to time it right. So we have taken a quite extended cover in Mexico at this moment in time. Brazil, a little bit less at this moment in time, but we're staying well within the policy range. And therefore, there is nothing really noteworthy to call out. And on commodities, I'm afraid, yes, tomorrow is the day. Let me therefore go to Vietnam. So as we said, we are actually very pleased with our performance in Vietnam. Market shares continue to go up. You see the substitution of Tiger with Heineken that continues to accelerate 40% up this quarter, really fantastic how the team is adjusting its portfolio. Larue also now growing in mainstream. So the momentum, we feel is with us and very confident. You're right to point out that, that will be into next year, and therefore, there will not be a pre-stocking sell-in of that this year, which will have a significant impact. The other thing to note is that, of course, the Decree 100 is now starting to comp. So we believe that Vietnam will be -- yes, seeing a lower growth rate simply because of the year-on-year comparison. But underlying and in terms of its momentum dynamics, we are feeling very good about Vietnam.
Operator
operatorThe next question goes to Olivier Nicolai of Goldman Sachs.
Olivier Nicolai
analystJust a follow-up, first of all, on Europe and your volumes performance. You mentioned the volumes impact from the retail negotiation. You also mentioned some share losses in countries like Poland. But how do you explain the general market softness? Is it cyclical? Is it macro driven? Or is it a bit more structural? And then secondly, to stay on the topic of Europe, Heineken has invested in reusable packaging in many emerging markets. How do you think about this format in Europe in the context of the updated packaging regulation and how material it could be for your margins in the long run?
Harold Broek
executiveSo let me first comment on the general performance in Europe. And I'm glad you asked the question because whilst we like to think about Europe as a certain homogeneous market, it is important to call out the differences between the markets. So the general softness that we see is not universally true in Europe. We really see 2 markets that are quite pronounced. First, and it's a big one for us is Poland, where the beer category is down, well, mid- to high-single digit, let me call it like that. But we do see that this is general consumer sentiment because we also see similar levels of market decline in other categories, like, for example, in carbonated soft drinks, similar levels; water, even more pronounced than that, high-double digit. And of course, ice cream was terribly poor. We're just looking at it for a summer effect or something, but that was really terrible in Poland as well. So that does seem to be something with the Polish consumer. Don't really know why, but there is really a general weak economic sentiment there. And on top of that, let me not hide behind that fact, we are losing market share. So that is something that we are not pleased about and the teams are working night and day to address that. So in a big market, that's a double dip for us, both consumer sentiment, but also share losses. The other point, which links a little bit to your packaging point is we really underestimated the consumer impact of the deposit return scheme on cans in Austria. And as you know, Austria is also a very big market for us. And the proportionate impact was that can market is dropping like 30% to 40% in the initial stages and has not bounced back subsequently, even though the deposit scheme is relatively not a big amount of money. So those 2 very large markets really hurt the general category growth. But you also see opportunities. We spoke earlier about a beautiful Spain, Portugal, U.K., where the general economic sentiment is a little bit more positive. And also in France, the category is in growth, but we are not for the reasons that we well articulated. So for us, Europe is really, yes, we try to make that one as much as we can to leverage scale and skill. But the consumer trends and consumer sentiment, the categories and portfolio have very different dynamics market by market. So it's important to not generalize on that. And to your point, what is there for cyclical and structural, I think that really depends market by market. We are concerned somewhat about the impact that, for example, yes, deposit return schemes and just excise have because it just makes beer more expensive and that does weigh on consumer sentiment. And when affordability is a key concern across categories for markets, this is something that we, but also hopefully working together with governments should address because a healthy industry is good, not only for us, but for the wider employment that we generate in Europe as well. To your second point about packaging, this is something that we always look into. But in the end, it starts with consumer preference and consumer choice. And what we currently see is that cans is actually a consumer-preferred format, and that's where we see where the growth is at this moment in time.
Operator
operatorThe next question goes to Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America. Moving on to the next question from Trevor Stirling from Bernstein.
Trevor Stirling
analystHarold, it might be a little bit too early, but if I look forward to 2025 margins and just extrapolating from your guidance of, let's say, low single-digit EBIT growth -- sorry, 4 percentage EBIT growth -- 4% to 5%, low single-digit revenue growth. You're looking at probably some modest margin expansion. But then on the other side, we've got the EUR 500 million gross savings, which is more like 170 bps of margin expansion. So where does the offset coming? Where is the pressure on the cost base that's stopping that -- more of that gross savings flowing to the bottom line? .
Harold Broek
executiveYes. Indeed, Trevor, I think you're going to be delighted with my productivity presentation tomorrow if we're able to welcome you here to Seville because it's a very understandable question, Trevor. So first, let me just be quick, and therefore, we can talk about it more tomorrow, if necessary. But indeed, we are very cognizant of the fact that margin expansion is important to us. And certainly in the context of more currency volatility that needs to happen. There are 2 factors driving the flow-through on gross savings. The first one is volume deleverage. And also what you hear us say is that volumes will be down this year, moderately so, but still. And that has an impact, of course, weighted market by market, but that can have a quite significant impact on how much gross savings you need to offset that. The second thing and probably as importantly is that we continue to invest in our business. We really continue to support our brands. We put serious dollars behind our leading brands, but also the focus markets in our portfolio. And we continue to invest quite significantly about digitizing our business to make sure that we are ready to capture both on growth but also in terms of efficiency, the opportunities that, that offers. So there is still an ongoing investment strategy in our business, hopefully, as much as possible, disciplined and rightsized, but those are the 2 important drivers about why you don't see a bigger flow-through. Now let me also be a bit upbeat about that. I'm super happy that we are confident enough to deliver these growth savings because it's a very important part of how we adjust to economic realities and still being able to sharpen our portfolio and future-proof this company.
Trevor Stirling
analystThank you very much, Harold. I look forward to more discussions tomorrow.
Operator
operatorThank you. We have no further questions. So I'll hand back to Tristan for any closing comments. .
Raoul-Tristan Van Strien
executiveThank you, Nadia. Thank you, Harold. As a reminder, as Harold and Trevor just alluded to already, tomorrow, we will have our Capital Markets event here in Seville, Spain. We will also be sending out a press release tomorrow morning regarding the Capital Markets event at 7:00 a.m. Central European time. For those who are here, we will see you this evening and looking forward to it. For those who can't make it, please register on our website theheinekencompany.com, into the Investor tab for the CME that is starting at 9 a.m. Central European Time tomorrow. Looking forward to it. Thank you very much. .
Operator
operatorThank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
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