Hensoldt AG (HAG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Hensoldt AG Full Year 2025 Preliminary Results Analyst Conference Call. I am Matilde, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Veronika Endres, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to Hensoldt's Full Year 2025 Preliminary Results Call. Thank you for joining us today. I'm Veronika Endres, Head of Investor Relations at Hensoldt. And with me are our CEO, Oliver Dorre; and our CFO, Christian Ladurner. Oliver and Christian will guide you through this presentation today, which will be followed by a Q&A session. And with that, I hand over to you, Oliver.

Thank you very much, Veronika, and a warm and cordial welcome to our valued investors and the analysts covering the Hensoldt stock. Let me begin with a clear statement. In 2025, we delivered on our commitments. Our book-to-bill ratio reached 1.9x. Revenue came in within the guided range. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% on a year-on-year to EUR 452 million, resulting in a margin of 18.4%, fully in line with the guidance we updated in October. And free cash flow significantly exceeded expectations at a level of EUR 347 million. These figures tell an important story. A book-to-bill ratio of 1.9x is not just a strong order intake number. It is tangible evidence that the Zeitenwende 2.0, as we call it, has moved from political announcement to contractual execution. Accelerated defense budgets are translating into funded procurement decisions. And those decisions are arriving in our order books. Demand is concrete and operational. At the same time, the increase in adjusted EBITDA to EUR 452 million shows that we are managing growth with discipline. A 12% improvement in comparison to 2024 reflects emerging scaling effects while we continue to focus on efficiency. Free cash flow of EUR 347 million reflects a strong operational execution, but also a structural evolution in contract arrangements, which, for example, now increasingly include advanced payments. In other words, our customers are co-financing development and production ramp-ups. That strengthens our liquidity position and supports disciplined industrial expansion. Revenue development within guidance underlines another important reality, scaling defense electronics production is a complex multiyear process. It requires stable supply chains, industrial precision and a careful ramp-up management. We are giving this maximum attention because reliability and delivery remains our first obligation to the customers. Taken together, 2025 was a strong and balanced year for Hensoldt financially, operationally and strategically. The figures you have just seen do not stand on their own. They are embedded in a geopolitical environment that has changed fundamentally. The Munich Security Conference 2026 made this shift unmistakably clear. The international order has entered a new phase of open great power competition from Russia's ongoing war of aggression to China's expanding global ambitions and multiple overlapping crisis from the Middle East to East Asia. At the same time, the transatlantic relationship remains defined by strategic necessity, yet also by increasing uncertainty. While the United States continue to emphasize burden sharing under America first priorities, Europe is debating greater military self-reliance amid declining confidence in long-term U.S. predictability. Yet the conference also signaled recalibration rather than fragmentation. NATO cohesion and G7 coordination remain central, while Europe is positioning itself as a more autonomous security actor, strengthening its defense, industrial base and expanding partnerships beyond the traditional Western framework, for example, with India. Against this backdrop, we are operating in a phase of persistent instability. Capability gaps are accumulated over decades are now being addressed with urgency. The demand we see is structural. It is not headline driven, and it does not depend on the precise trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Even in a scenario of reduced hostilities, strengthen air defense and expand ISR and electromagnetic warfare capabilities, the deficits are known. Political decisions have been taken. Funding frameworks are in place. Temporary market reactions to ceasefire discussions do not alter this underlying reality. The rebuilding of European defense capacity is a multiyear undertaking embedded in national force planning and procurement pipeline. For Europe, this has translated into a clear shift in posture. Budgets are structurally higher, commitments are framed as multiyear contracts and the sovereignty in critical technologies has become central. The European industrial base is being strengthened deliberately, not only to secure supply chains, but to ensure autonomy in such domains such as sensors, data processing and the electromagnetic spectrum. For Hensoldt, this environment has very concrete implications. The immediate priority for many customers is what we call fight to night, operational readiness today. And this is where software-defined defense becomes a central lever. Real-time multi-domain data fusion and AI-supported analysis shorten the sensor to shooter cycle and increase resilience in a contested environment. Software upgrades enhance capabilities without waiting for new hardware platforms. Modular architectures enable sovereign agility and scalable deployment under European control. In short, the geopolitical shift drives demand. Europe's response provides funding, software-defined defense translate both improved deployable capability. Let me connect the geopolitical backdrop to something very concrete, procurement execution. Throughout 2025, we have tracked these milestones carefully. And the central point today is this. The assumptions we made about acceleration have materialized exactly as expected. Three developments define the end of the year 2025. First, the 2026 budget has been formally approved with the regular defense budget rising to around EUR 82.7 billion. At the same time, the Sondervermogen Bundeswehr is effectively fully committed through authorization frameworks. The transition from extraordinary funding to structurally higher annual budgets is underway. Second, the planning and procurement acceleration law has been enacted. This is structurally important. It shortens administrative cycles and reduces procedural delays, enabling faster contract awards. In addition, we are seeing an increasing number of projects with limited competition or even direct contracts, reinforcing our position as national champion. Third and most telling is the parliamentary approval dynamic. In 2025 alone, the budget committee of the German Bundestag approved 103 so-called EUR 25 million proposals, 103. The total volume amounted to approximately EUR 83 billion. To put this a little bit into perspective, before 2022, Germany's annual defense procurement spending typically ranged between EUR 15 billion and EUR 20 billion. What we saw in 2025 is, therefore, not a marginal increase. It represents a historic step change in procurement scale. The December sessions alone illustrate this acceleration. In a single meeting on 17 December, 30 major projects with a combined value of nearly EUR 50 billion were approved. For us, many of these approvals are directly relevant, Eurofighter Mark 1, Pegasus, reinforcement of IRIS-T and major land system upgrades such as Luchs 2, Puma and the remotely controlled Howitzer RCH-155. These are not abstract budget lines. They are funded programs entering execution. And this is precisely the procurement environment behind our 1.9x book-to-bill ratio. The order momentum we reported is not speculative. It is rooted in a historically unprecedented approval dynamic. Looking into 2026, the pace remains elevated. More than 70 major proposals are planned with an expected volume of at least EUR 48 billion. While this may not repeat the exceptional peak of 2025, it confirms that the acceleration is embedded in a multiyear force planning. In short, 2025 marked the transition from political intent to structural procurement execution at a scale Germany has not seen before and at a scale that will be sustained over the coming years. Let me now move from parliamentary approvals to what has actually entered our order book. The orders we secured in 2025 reflect 3 characteristics: scale, technological depth and geographic breadth. In our Sensors segment, intake was driven by major European air defense and reconnaissance programs, including Eurofighter, radar developments, Pegasus rebaselining, sustainment activities for maritime patrol aircraft and next-generation radar systems such as Spexer MKIII. These programs underline our strong positioning in air defense, ISR and electromagnetic spectrum capabilities, domains that are clearly prioritized in Europe and the overall force planning. At the same time, the portfolio is not limited to Germany or Europe, a EUR 60 million contract for an obstacle avoidance system for the Indian advanced light helicopters illustrates the effectiveness of our grow with focus strategy. It shows that our technology is competitive in selected international markets and that we are expanding in a targeted and disciplined way. In our Optronics segment, the picture is equally compelling. The landmark Luchs 2 contract with its Ceretron sensors suite and integrated self-protection systems represents a structural upgrade in how land platforms are equipped. It moves us further towards connected software-enabled architectures. In addition, we secured substantial orders for sighting systems, self-protection solutions and border surveillance sensor suites across Europe and North Africa. These contracts confirm strong demand not only for new platforms, but also for upgrades and capability enhancements of existing systems. Taken together, the 2 slides demonstrate that our order momentum is not concentrated in a single program or geographical area. It spans air, land and maritime domains, it covers new development, upgrades and sustainment, and it reflects both domestic strength and selective international expansion. This breadth is important. It increases resilience, improves visibility and supports margin quality across the portfolio. Let me now turn to partnerships because the next phase of defense capability cannot be built in isolation. I would first like to address a topic that has been mentioned by some of our analysts in their reports, namely the statements Leonardo's CEO, Roberto Cingolani, made in his analyst call yesterday. Leonardo is a constructive shareholder and an important long-term industrial partner for Hensoldt. We maintain a close and trustful dialogue. However, it is not our role, and we are not in a position to comment on shareholders' intentions or potential changes in ownership. Any decisions regarding shareholdings in Hensoldt are solely a matter for the respective shareholders. This applies to both Leonardo and the German federal government. What I can say is this, Hensoldt is strongly positioned. We are delivering on our commitments. We are scaling our industrial capabilities, and we are consistently advancing our role as a leading European sensor house and increasingly as a neo system house. Our focus is clear. It is on execution, on performance and on creating long-term value. Now on to our recent partnerships. Over the past 2 years, we have deliberately positioned Hensoldt as a bridge builder within the evolving defense ecosystem. The partnerships announced in the past weeks are clear proof that this positioning is now operational. With Tytan, we integrate cost-efficient interceptor drones into our Elysion Mission Core. This strengthen our UAS -- counter UAS architecture, particularly for domestic critical infrastructures and selected international programs, including Ukraine. It connects start-up agility with our system integration capability. With Schwarz Digits, we combine Hensoldt sensors and MDOcore with a sovereign classified cloud, fog and edge infrastructure. This enables secure data-centric defense architectures under European control and connects our hardware and software backbone with large-scale digital infrastructure. And with Helsing, we have entered into a long-term industrial cooperation to operationalize software-defined defense in deployable multi-domain sensor-to-shooter chains. This is about execution architecture, not conceptual cooperation. What unites these partnerships is more important than the individual agreements. They show that Hensoldt connects 3 layers of the emerging defense landscape, disruptive start-ups, sovereign digital platform providers and new generation system primes. Modern defense capability is increasingly built as an interoperable multi-domain architecture. In such an environment, integration becomes the decisive function integrating sensors, fusing data, combining software layers and effectors across domains. That is the role we are assuming. We are evolving beyond a traditional sensor champion. We are becoming what I would describe as a neo system house, a system integrator built around data, software and electromagnetic spectrum superiority, capable of operating across air and space, land, sea and cyber domains. To our knowledge, no other company in Germany combines this breadth of multi-domain capability under a unified software-defined defense architecture. This role strengthens our strategic relevance in future procurement programs and increases our resilience in a rapidly evolving ecosystem. And with this, I hand over to Christian with an update on operations and the financials.

Yes. Thank you very much, Oliver. So when we talk about growth, one key aspect is the systematic expansion of our industrial footprint. Thanks to early anticipation, we started implementing footprint expansions and efficiency measures already some time ago. Our Operations 2.0 targets reflect our ambitious growth trajectory with further expansions planned, especially for air defense radars and ground-based systems, ensuring we can fully deliver on customer requirements and sustain growth well into the next decade. To enable this kind of scale, we are also continuously expanding our physical footprint and strengthening our industrial base. End of last year, we announced plans to increase production capacity for air defense radars from 2027 onwards. Already in 2026, we will launch a new repair center for ground-based systems to meet customer demand for spare parts and MRO services. Further expansions, including additional capacity for infantry sites are currently under evaluation. And beyond that, we are assessing strategic partnerships and selective M&A opportunities as well as outsourced manufacturing. Together, these initiatives lay the foundation for scale, efficiency and profitability. Let me now guide you through our preliminary results for the year 2025. I'm very proud of our achievements and the strong performance in the last year. We once exceeded most of our KPIs. Let's now have a closer look on that. Starting with the top line, order intake came in at the upper end of the raised guidance, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.9x. This significant order intake was driven by both segments and several major programs, including Luchs 2, air defense radar such as Spexer and TRML-4D, as well as the Eurofighter program and Pegasus. Overall, order intake increased by 62% year-on-year, reaching an impressive figure of EUR 5.7 billion. Revenue increased to EUR 2.6 billion with a strong growth in core revenue of 11% despite the slower start in sensors in the first half of the year due to the ramp-up of our logistics center. Optronics continued its strong momentum with revenue growth of 20%, primarily driven by ground-based systems. At the same time, parcel revenue decreased by 12%, leading to an improved quality of revenue. Building on previous year's strong order book, we substantially increased our order backlog by 33% in 2025, reaching a new record level of EUR 8.8 billion. This provides sustained strong revenue visibility for the future. And to sum it up and to reinforce what Oliver highlighted earlier, the acceleration in defense spending is now converting into material orders, underpinning a sustained growth path for the years ahead. The strong top line performance in 2025 is also clearly reflected in our profitability and cash generation. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to EUR 452 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.4%. The strong performance was driven by higher volumes and scaling effects, particularly in Optronics and supported by material synergies from the ESG acquisition. This was partly offset by the impact of the logistics ramp-up, which continued to diminish over the course of 2025 and by an unfavorable product mix in Sensors. Adjusted EBIT also increased by 11% to EUR 327 million, benefiting from volume effects and economies of scale. As a result, the adjusted EBIT margin improved year-on-year to 13.3%. Cash generation in 2025 was excellent. Adjusted free cash flow increased by 39% to EUR 347 million. With a cash conversion rate of 77%, we clearly outperformed our guidance range of 50% to 60%. This strong performance was supported by advanced payments, while investments in inventories developed as planned to support the growing business volume. To conclude, the strong bottom line performance exceeded our guidance, reflecting disciplined execution and operating leverage. Now let's take a closer look at our segments. In the Sensors segment, we realized a strong order intake with an increase of 42% compared to previous year. In total, orders summed up to more than EUR 3.1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5x. Key drivers were orders for Air Defense radars, the Eurofighter program, Pegasus and P-8 Poseidon. Core revenue in Sensors increased by 10% to over EUR 1.9 billion. Despite the slower start in our radar production in the first half of the year, revenue growth was strong and fully in line with our expectations. The share of parcel revenue further declined to an amount of EUR 132 million. Adjusted EBITDA in Sensors increased to EUR 394 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.2%. Product mix effects had a minor impact on margins, while the effect from the logistical ramp-up further diluted until year-end. Synergies from the ESG acquisition materialized as planned and that supported profitability. Turning now to our Optronics segment delivered an outstanding year. We once again achieved a record order intake, reflecting continued momentum with orders summing up to EUR 1.6 billion, representing an increase of 114% compared to the prior year. Optronics recorded a book-to-bill of 3.8x. Key drivers were the orders for Luchs 2, the Leopard 2 and orders for the Algerian land border surveillance. Revenue performance in Optronics was excellent with a 20% increase to EUR 419 million, driven by the sustained strong development of ground-based systems. The site move of ground-based systems was successfully completed and provides a solid foundation for further growth. In terms of margins, Optronics showed a substantial improvement with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 140% year-on-year to EUR 58 million. This development was driven by higher volumes and economies of scale materializing due to production ramp-up. Now let me briefly comment on our balance sheet and net leverage development. Over the recent years, we have continuously reduced our net debt. Following the ESG acquisition 2 years ago, we quickly returned to a deleveraging path and reached a net leverage of 1.6x by the end of 2024. At the year-end 2025, net leverage remained stable at 1.6x, while net debt excluding lease liabilities continued to decline, our increased lease liabilities kept net leverage stable. This reflects our planned investments and the sustained expansion of production capacity, including the move to our new Optronics site in Oberkochen. Excluding lease liabilities, net leverage declined to 0.6x compared to 0.9x in 2024. This underlines our highly cash-generative business model and our ability to further reduce net leverage following an acquisition. To sum it up, Hensoldt is in excellent financial shape with a conservative balance sheet in place. Moving on to our dividend proposal. We have guided for a payout ratio of up to 30% to 40% of the adjusted net income 2025. Adjusted net income in 2025 sum up to EUR 170 million, slightly below last year. Main driver were higher income taxes as the prior year still benefited from tax loss carryforwards. Due to the excellent business performance and strong cash generation, the Management Board intends to propose a dividend per share of EUR 0.55 to the Supervisory Board and the AGM. And this marks a 10% increase compared to dividend in 2024 and corresponds to a payout ratio of 37% of adjusted net income 2025. So let me now present our specified guidance for 2026. First and foremost, order intake. Driven by the sustained high demand and order momentum, we expect the book-to-bill ratio in 2026 to remain strong between in 1.5 and 2x. For revenues, we are specifying our guidance to approximately EUR 2.75 billion. Furthermore, we increased our guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin to a range between 18.5% and 19%. This reflects our focus on sustained strong profitability while investing in our capacity to support long-term growth. For adjusted free cash flow, we continue to expect cash conversion of around 40%. As outlined in the Capital Markets Day, this reflects our planned CapEx for infrastructure expansion, in particular, for our new radar production site. For net leverage target, we specify our guidance to around 1.5x. As we expand our operational footprint, lease liabilities are expected to increase. Apart from this noncash effect, net leverage would decrease even stronger. Finally, our dividend payout ratio will continue to be in the range of 30% to 40% of adjusted net income, in line with our commitment to shareholder returns. For the midterm, we confirm our targets outlined at our Capital Markets Day in November. We expect order intake to continue outpacing revenue growth, translating into average annual organic revenue growth of around 15% to 20%, likely more back-end loaded as large programs ramp up. Margins will continue to expand by about 50 basis points per year, reflecting scale and productivity gains, while cash conversion normalizes to around 50%, coming back to 50% to 60% from 2028 onwards. Finally, our dividend payout ratio will continue to be in the range of 30% to 40% of adjusted net income while maintaining a conservative financial profile. And going forward, our priorities for capital allocation remain unchanged. First, fueling the growth. We continue to invest Hensoldt 2.0, scaling production, strengthening technology and developing our people. Second, sharing growth. We maintain a 30% to 40% dividend payout ratio of adjusted net income, ensuring shareholders participating in our success. And third, strategic acquisitions. We pursue value-accretive M&A, focusing on technologies, markets and capacities that strengthen our core capabilities in the value chain. Last not least, we are adhering to a conservative financial debt profile and medium-term dividend payout guidance. And with that, I'm happy to hand back to Oliver for an outlook on expected key orders and priorities in 2026.

Thank you, Christian. Now let me turn to 2026 and the order environment we see ahead of us. As in 2025, both segments are expected to contribute meaningfully to order intake, and the momentum is broad-based rather than concentrated. In the Sensors segment, core programs such as TRML-4D air defense radars and the Eurofighter platform remain firmly embedded in national procurement plans. These are not cyclical projects. They are structural pillars of European capability expansion. We also anticipate the complementary procurement for Pegasus, which would further strengthen our position in airborne ISR and signal intelligence. In addition, we are seeing clear momentum in land-based electromagnetic warfare. The Knifefish program in the Netherlands and further European customers illustrate that electromagnetic spectrum capabilities are gaining priority across European armed forces. And then there is luWES, airborne electromagnetic standoff capability. We consider ourselves very well positioned in this program. Depending on customer requirements and subject to the outcome of competitive tendering, luWES has the potential to become a true game changer for Hensoldt. The possible order range spans from multi-hundred million euros to in certain scenarios, billion levels. This would be a logical expansion of our electromagnetic warfare expertise and our ability to integrate complex airborne systems at scale. Turning to the Optronics segment, 2026 has already started with strong momentum. The Schakal program is already in our books and further land system-related contracts are expected as platform modernization continues. As in 2025, demand combines new procurement with capability upgrades and self-protection enhancements. Taken together, the 2026 order environment confirms the structural nature of the growth dynamics we described earlier. It underpins our guidance and provides visibility across both segments. In other words, 2025 was not an isolated peak. It was a starting point of a part of a broader and sustained capability expansion cycle. Let me give you some color on how we are translating this momentum into execution discipline. We are very clear about what the next phase requires. The structural growth dynamic creates opportunity, but it also increases complexity. Scaling production, integrating software architectures, managing supply chains and maintaining delivery reliability at the same time is demanding. That is why we have defined clear priorities for 2026. The central axis remains deliver at scale, industrialization, supply chain stability, engineering discipline and production ramp-up are at the core of our attention. In a market environment like the current one, credibility is built through delivery. We are fully aware of that. At the same time, we continue to scale software-defined defense, MDOcore and our multi-domain architectures are moving from positioning to operational deployment. Partnerships are being translated into executable programs. Grow with focus remains selective and disciplined. We expand where we have technological relevance and structural demand, not opportunistically. And finally, we are investing in organizational effectiveness. The scale of our growth requires clarity in governance, faster decision-making and empowerment in leadership. These priorities are not abstract management slogan. We presented them to the entire organization in our recent first global town hall meeting where we reached almost 5,000 colleagues and the feedback was strong. This is a clear understanding internally that the next phase is about disciplined execution and operational excellence. In short, we know what needs to be done and the organization is aligned and behind it. Before we conclude, let me briefly address leadership continuity and evolution. On May 1, Inka Tews will join Hensoldt as member of the Management Board and our new Chief Human Resource Officer. She brings extensive experience in guiding organizations through transformation and growth phases. As we continue to scale industrially and organizationally, strong leadership in people development, governance and execution becomes even more critical. We are very much looking forward to working with her in this next phase. And yesterday, on 25th February, we announced that the Supervisory Board has extended my contract until the end of 2031. This extension provides continuity as we execute our long-term strategy and manage the current scaling phase. It reflects a shared commitment to stability, disciplined growth and consistent implementation of the strategic path that we have identified. Continuity and evolution go hand-in-hand. We are strengthening the organization while maintaining strategic consistency, ensuring that Hensoldt remains focused, resilient and execution-driven in the most dynamic market environment. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude by bringing the key points together. 2025 was a year of execution and confirmation. We achieved a record order backlog, which provides high visibility for the years ahead. Revenue development is on track, demonstrating that we are converting backlog into delivery. Profitability remains strong with adjusted EBITDA having increased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, we generated outstanding cash flow, strengthening our financial resilience and supporting disciplined expansion. Operationally, we continue to expand and modernize our industrial footprint, increasing capacity, stabilizing supply chains and preparing the organization for sustained scaling. And our strategic transformation under the North Star framework is clearly on track with measurable impact across the company. Looking ahead, the outlook remains robust. Our new strategic partnerships are accelerating innovation and strengthening our ramp-up capability. They demonstrate that Hensoldt is deliberately positioning itself as a bridge builder across the defense ecosystem, connecting agile start-ups, sovereign digital infrastructure providers and next-generation system primes. In this architecture-driven environment, integration becomes the decisive capability. We are evolving beyond a traditional sensor house champion into what I described as a neo system house, a multi-domain integrator built around data, software and smart and connected sensors, providing electromagnetic spectrum superiority. This positioning broadens our relevance in future programs and strengthens our competitive resilience. At the same time, we see a multitude of major contracts expected in 2026. And we are confident that a strong order intake level can be sustained. What we are experiencing is not a cyclical volatility. It is structural growth driven by funded procurement decisions, multiyear force planning and lasting shift in European defense policy. In this environment, we remain a reliable partner for our customers, delivering at scale while shaping sustainable growth, both industrially and organizationally. Hensoldt is scaling with discipline, expanding with purpose and positioning itself at the center of Europe's evolving defense architecture. That is the foundation on which we build the next phase of our development. Thank you very much, and we are now happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas.

The first one would be around free cash flow. And apparently, you ended the year about EUR 100 million higher compared to your earlier guidance, and that was largely working capital driven. So I was wondering how we should think about the building blocks behind the about EUR 200 million free cash flow target for this year, i.e. '26. And on the structural note, are you seeing any structural improvements really for working capital at this stage? If you could start there, and then I would have 2 more around the industrial footprint and the order pipeline.

Sebastian, thanks for your question. Yes, you are right. I think there were 2 aspects in 2025. First, we -- from my point of view, did a proper working capital management. But on the other hand, we clearly increased advanced payments. So we were fighting now 3 to 4 years to get this structurally done. So this is now the case. So when I look in terms of figures, we have approximately 18% out of order intake, we receive advanced payments on average on the group. And this is also a figure we now go ahead, which is then substantially higher than in the last years, and this helps us, of course, to balance the working capital requirements on the one hand, but also on the other hand, the CapEx required for our investments. So going forward, 2026, we will see a similar percentage of advanced payments compared to order intake. You see that the book-to-bill guidance 1.5 to 2 is relatively broad. There are 1 or 2 tickets in where we have to see. But another building block is, of course, that we will have a high CapEx number this year, approximately 6% of revenues. And this is very heavily depending on the new production site, which is then go live beginning of 2027 and including the new repair line for ground-based systems. And this in total makes EUR 80 million on top CapEx when we compare the figure to 2025. And the rest, I would say, in terms of interest, we are a little bit better now to the new refunding. So the structure is more or less corresponding with 2025. But of course, the additional CapEx for infrastructure has the impact on the 40% conversion.

Right. And then talking about CapEx, you mentioned industrial footprint before. You have also alluding to be evaluating further site expansions. And I do remember also that you pointed to a CapEx reserve of 1.2%, 1.5% of sales for further expansion projects. And apparently, orders are continuing to as well. So can you remind us by when you will have to take a decision here? And can you also share with us an update whether your priorities might have changed with regard to going for own plans as opposed to more partnering M&A or outsourcing?

Yes. First of all, the reserve and the approach we outlined in the Capital Market Day is still the same. So the figures are stable in this regard. What I can say that we are very close in terms of decisions for ground-based systems. You know that our new site in Oberkochen is now already -- almost finished. But with the increased demand in services and availability of systems, we have to have a solution here. So we are quite close and we'll, of course, update you as soon we have taken a decision for services. Next thing will be that we, of course, have to elaborate on having another or an expansion in infantry sites, which is done in Wetzlar. Also here, we have to do some investments, but this will be well covered in the CapEx plan we have outlined. And these are, I would say, the next 2 ones, and then we are well prepared for the next 3 to 4 years. So this is valid. And in terms of how do we structure it, on the one hand, we have our real estate company who has done many of the investments in Oberkochen and other real estate investments. Going forward, if there will be a new -- a big program for Ulm refurbishment, then this real estate company will do it and we rent it back from the HV perspective. On the other hand, I'm clearly in favor currently that we partner with a project developer in terms of real estate. There are many, many companies out there who are very professional in this regard and are able in weeks or months to ramp up a real estate and then we will rent it from them because our cash should go to our business model, developing our radars, our optronics and investing in software defense.

And maybe there was one aspect in the question as well. It's very clear that this organic scaling, which Christian in principle alluded to, goes hand-in-hand with what I would see as smart scaling. And that is still, we have many options under discussions where, of course, on one hand, we reduce our own work share in outsourcing, bringing more resilience to the supply chain up to partnering and including partnering where we would also consider a build-to-print view for rather lower complexity products. So that is all part of a comprehensive plan that we are currently putting in place.

Okay. And then what have you, on luWES, you mentioned Oliver that, that might be a multi-hundred million, if not an opportunity in the billions. Can you just remind us and walk us through the time line here for the project? And how should one think of the mix impact related to the very program, please?

Yes. Maybe I'll start with the project and then the impacts are rather taken by Christian. So well, why are we well positioned for luWES? So luWES has a history of, I would say, more than 5 years where the German government had decided that part of the national sovereign interest in technology, they would invest in electromagnetic warfare capabilities, be it passive, and that's what we see with Pegasus, where actually we can put intelligence on the enemies signal intelligence spectrum. And of course, what we were also developing in this framework was the active electromagnetic capability, means electromagnetic combat where we have the ability to jam or at least interfere with the enemies electromagnetic spectrum. So that's why at the lower end of the luWES program, we see ourselves well positioned, if not set as the contributor of the mission system package, which will, of course, be a significant part of the luWES program. Germany has committed to NATO that they will contribute, I would say, a dozen of jammers to the NATO order of battle. And in that regard, this commitment is about the turn from the 20s to the 30s. So we would expect such capability coming into force around 2030, which puts some pressure on the time line for the program. Last year, in summer, we have demonstrated with a couple of partner companies, our technical capability, which can be considered as a kind of critical design feasibility review. And based on that, the German customer is currently working on the competition where I would see a limited number of players being capable to offer. So our decision as we go forward, and I cannot give more details on that because that is a competitive or rather close competitive tender that is ahead. But the question depends, could we go further because we have all the experience from Pegasus. Could we not just offer the mission package as the mission package is the formative element of the capability that is about to be built. It could be that we take the full responsibility as a prime or in a partnership with some system integrators on the market, and that will drive the volume that actually comes into our books. So it's definitely a program as we have announced it here for this year, where we will see the tender. If it comes into force this year or early next year, that depends also on buying [indiscernible] and how the process proceeds. But again, with the commitment to NATO, which is clearly made until the early 2030s, the pressure is very high to start this program as quickly as possible.

Maybe to add on that, Sebastian, because you asked when we stay with the mission package, as Oliver has elaborated, then we talk about the figures we have now cited, and this is also included in our plan. If we go beyond, then figures will be significantly higher. This will also have a positive impact to our plan. But I think we're in a very early stage in this regard. So -- but we will keep you updated.

If I may just quickly come back to the mix aspect in the sense of at least indicationally providing some color around how we think about eventually the margins because Pegasus eventually we have some memory, which is different to the group margin. So if you could just qualify that.

Yes, sure. So we have 2 segments, and we have seen 2025 with 19.2% in sensors and around 14% in optronics. So for this year, I see approximately a similar margin in sensors, especially because we have now the invests and the costs for the new production side. Of course, we will have upside in volume, but encountered by the invest. And in optronics, I see a 2% improvement going ahead, going along with the revenue increase. So this, from my point of view, is the margin picture for 2026 for Sensors and Optronics.

My question was more related to luWES, if there's any sort of indication that you can drive.

I think in luWES, it depends how it's structured. Is it pass-through? Is it -- I think in general, for the payload and a little bit beyond, it will be similar to our used margins. It will be clearly better than in Pegasus. So this is for sure the case. If we go beyond, I think it's still too early to envisage on that, but we will not go for a program where we do not earn money. That's for sure.

The next question comes from the line of Marco Vitale from Mediobanca.

I have a couple. First one is on the potential, say, progression in top line growth that you expect for 2026. I mean you guided for a 10% increase, and we noted -- say that in 2025, the top line growth, progression was sort of front-end loaded. Should we expect now that the, say, comparison base gets tougher going ahead, a back-end loaded profile also for 2026? And then second question is still on the underlying assumption for your guidance. what are the assumption for the FCAS project and underlying your guidance? We heard yesterday from your partner, Indra that they are still committed to deliver on the sensor pillar regardless of any outcome of the project for the aircraft. What are your target about that? And what is included to your assumption?

Thanks for your question. So first of all, the question on top line, I think the top line guidance is, from my point of view, very realistic. The good news is that all the orders we assumed in Q4 came in. So it's now on us to execute on them. We have 2 major complexity points out. That means the logistics center, which has clearly stabilized and the move to the new site, there are -- there were 2 cornerstones where we managed quite well despite they had a minor impact on revenue. But these are out and now we -- it's on us to stabilize. And this is why I see that this is very realistic to -- for our revenue guidance. So this is in total the topic. And of course, it will be -- it will depend on ramping up of ground-based systems, periscope, MAWS, TRML-4D for sure, then the first batch of Spexer for the Skyranger. I think these are the major building blocks. And a part of that, of course, Luchs 2 is now one of our key programs where we develop the suit. And these are the main building blocks. But as I said before, I'm very confident on the guidance for 2026 because we have now many, many peripheral sites in place.

Yes. On FCAS, a couple of comments. So in principle, this, of course, is a political decision. And we are currently making very clear that we need that clarity now. We have about 200 highly experienced engineers supporting the program as well as some national activities that are around FCAS. So in that regard, it's important for us to see how would we work with those people in the future. Looking at what we would do in the future, we, of course, remain committed, and I have also discussed with our colleagues from Indra during the Munich Security Conference. So we remain committed to contribute to FCAS in whatever shape or form FCAS would look like. But according to also our claim to be strongly platform independent, we as Hensoldt also say we are also open to contribute to any alternative path that might arise for the future. And here, I would see from the Hensoldt perspective that any realignment on FCAS also bears opportunity. It bears opportunity because with our current posture, we cannot only contribute on the sensor pillar, but we will also contribute to what I see as the -- also driven by the market dynamics at the moment, with is the capability driving element. And that's a system of system part, which is also called CFSN, so the nucleus of a system of system capability architecture where, of course, with our multi-domain core and our sensors, we can play a major role. That is what also the cooperation with Helsing that we have announced is about where we will develop our sensors and contribute these rather collaborative combat elements to the combat drone, the 4 tons combat drone CA1, which, of course, would be part of such system of system. And on a broader term, and I think that is very important to note, we don't see any risk related to such a realignment on our planning assumptions because with a growing business, whatever the future direction would be, I think we have enough work -- qualified work and also quantity of work for those engineers that are applied and whatever direction it will go, I see a most relevant contribution of Hensoldt.

We now have a question from the line of Afonso Osorio from Barclays.

First of all, Oliver, congrats on your new 5-year contract. That's great to see. I have 3 questions, if I can. You already touched on some of these anyway, but I'll ask anyway. First one is on your current ramp-up in your capacity plans. Can you perhaps expand a little bit on your supply chain situation in terms of the bottlenecks you're currently seeing, if there are any? And within that, also trying to understand if you have any need for incremental CapEx this year and next year, at least versus what you said to us in November to arrive to the planned production volumes. So that's the first one. Second one is based on the latest news flow from the German budget and demand situation there. Given the news flow on possible delays or no delays, curious to hear your thoughts on that based on everything you just said, I'm assuming that everything remains intact, but just wanted to double check on that front. And then finally, if I can squeeze one more. it would be great to see your thoughts on the opportunity in the drone market. I mean you have the Slide 8, where you already talked about a little bit on that part. But I appreciate the exposure to drone is quite small for you today, but any thoughts on the tangible revenue opportunity on the drone side, that would be super helpful.

Thank you. Then I'll take the first question regarding supply chain. Yes, I think as we elaborated in the Capital Market Day, the downside is that we cannot just put on a button and it runs. The good thing, I think, is that we have a clear perspective what are now the challenges. And currently, I do not see, I would say, a major blocking point. I think the major challenge in this business is to manage the complexity, beginning with our infrastructure, beginning with our own production and then having seamless communication with the suppliers, with the supply chain quality and ramping up in an orchestrated way. And the orchestration of the whole supply chain is the challenge, but there is no one challenge where I could say, okay, we have to solve this and this, and then we are fine. But we also show, I think that we can manage it. So when I just compare the material throughput, and we had a proper discussion yesterday in Ulm from a pure material throughput, we doubled the material throughput now in 2 years. You cannot see it yet in the revenues because also the mixture between material and personnel expenses has changed, but it shows that with our measures we have taken and laid up in the Operations 2.0, we clearly pushed the supply chain up. So this is my comment regarding supply chain. It's a complex system, which we have to manage. But currently, we have the necessary levers in place.

Okay. So question 2, German budgets. I'm not sure if we understand it well, but we see everything intact. I mean, we underline it also in our pitch. It's structural. We have a long-term plan that the budget will grow to EUR 152 billion by '29. So in that regard, all what we hear and see is really structural growth and a long-term commitment of the German customer.

Okay. And then the last one on the drone side.

Yes, yes. The last one on the drone. I mean, yes, we -- I mean, Hensoldt is really positioning, and that's what I introduced as the neo system prime as a kind of bridge builder because I'm a bit -- I would rather say fed up with the discussion of drones or tanks, drones or fighter airplanes, drones or frigates. I think definitely a defense scenario of our alliance in Germany and Europe -- and that is what we can state upfront would be different than the Ukraine war. However, drones are changing the future war scenario, and that's why Hensoldt positioning as this neo system prime, we are working very closely with the drone supplier. So I highlighted our cooperations with Tytan, with Helsing and also with Quantum Systems, including that also, as you know, we have invested in Quantum. So all of these cooperations are strategic. We are talking to other drone suppliers, including other domains than air that applies to the land domain where, for example, for the Luchs 2 or also for some of the electromagnetic combat systems, our customers are asking concepts couldn't we have additional UGVs supporting those traditional platforms in penetrating deeper into enemy territory, distributing antennas and sensors across the battlefield. So I think there's a strong dynamics, and that is why we are talking to those companies. What is also very clear, as stated before, we will stay platform independent. So none of those companies is in any shape or form exclusive. So we try to deliver to the breadth of those platforms. And we are evaluating, I would say, in 2 directions. The first one is the role of a system integrator where we see a strong necessity that especially looking at intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, the sensors of this drone cloud, as I would call it, are seamlessly integrated into broader defense architectures, be it air defense, be it counter UAS, be it ISR, signal intelligence, electromagnetic warfare or whatever. So it's our clear self-taken task, and we have a strong backup from the customer that we put the 2 worlds together in a sense of a seamless ISR infrastructure supporting information superiority decision speed and especially precision engagements. So that is one element where MDO core and our general ability as system integrator comes into place. And the second thing is, of course, our sensors, not the breadth of the sensors, but looking at the preciser, looking at some of the optics, we will evolute our portfolio in the range of drones. That is not to say that we go into the commodity market of the smaller drones, but having like midsized unmanned ground vehicles, having like mid- to bigger size unmanned aerial vehicles as we do with CA1 with Helsing, we sure have an ability to provide sensors to this segment. And that is, of course, driving also quantities. So I think drones changes our business, and we're anticipating that in both in quantitative growth, but as well as in moving the quality and evaluating also the business model of the company.

The next question comes from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.

Most of mine have been answered, but I'll have a follow-up on -- so first of all, on the comments that you made with regards to the Sebastian question on free cash flow. On the advanced payments, should we take the EUR 344 million contract balances as kind of a guide, which is equal to about 7% of your order intake? Is that the right ballpark for 2026? And then second question on the 2026 order intake, the range is quite large. So I was wondering how much of that EUR 4.1 billion, EUR 5.5 billion guidance are you expecting to come from Germany? And what would be kind of any large order that you see potentially slipping to 2027 to explain that range?

Thank you for your question. I think when you want to have a calculation of the pure advanced payments volume, then you should take our order intake, multiply it with an 18% and then you will see that the advanced payment figure on that. So here, we have growth also in line with our order intake and our revenues. So what drives the range? You have seen that in our expected key orders, there are some very big ones. So we have elaborated on Pegasus, for example, we have elaborated on luWES. And as such big programs are planned or on our contract, -- it could be that it's contracted in November, December, but it could also be that it slips to January, February. I think during the course of the year, we will be clearer in the book-to-bill guidance. From the current point of view, I can say that everything evolves very, very fast in a very dynamic way. But this is simply the reason why we have chosen now this guidance range. But in case if it's then December or January, February, I think it's not our biggest worries because the order book is very, very full, and we are very busy of exploiting the order intake into revenues.

Understood. And just on the share that you expect from Germany?

Sorry. Yes, I think we have elaborated also in the Capital Market Day that in a long-term perspective, we see 50:30:20. But when I look in the next 2 to 3 years, we should assume 60:25:15, so 60% from Germany, 25% Europe, 15% rest of world. This will be reflected in our order book and also then, of course, reflected in the revenue split in the next 2 to 3 years.

We now have a question from the line of Carlos Iranzo Peris from Bank of America.

On the follow-up order on the Pegasus program, should we expect any meaningful change in terms of pass-through revenues versus the previous order? Or should we kind of expect the same setup?

Carlos, thank you for your question. So if it's the 900, which we have shown in the page, I do not see a split. I think what's currently discussed is what will be the structure. The Germany has some Global 6,000 aircraft in their fleet operating. And now then it will be the question how will be the structure will be given us as a so-called bestellung or will they be bought? And this, of course, then drives the revenue split. And then, of course, it could be that the revenue figure changes a little bit. We will learn, I think, also in this regard more during the year. But if it's the EUR 900 million we have planned for, then the share of pass-through will somehow similar as in the last program.

Okay. Great. Understood. And then if we can speak a bit about your book-to-bill because coming back to the comments that you made in the interim remarks, when you said that you expect a volume of at least EUR 48 billion, but this might not repeat the exceptional peak of 2025. So I just wonder how should we read this in the context of your book-to-bill guidance? Does that mean that you think your book-to-bill can potentially peak in '25, '26? And then should we assume that progressively normalizes from '27 onwards?

Could you please repeat that? I've not catched it. Sorry.

Yes. So like when we think about book-to-bill from 2027 onwards versus what you plan to do in '25 and 2026, how should we think about it? Do you see the book-to-bill peak in '25, '26? Or do you think that those levels can be sustained going forward?

Okay. Now Carlos, understood. So I think that the order intake will be substantially higher in the outpacing years. Why? Because the German defense budget will grow heavily in the next years, not only marginally, but structurally to EUR 160 billion in 2009, now coming from a figure slightly beyond EUR 100 billion this year. And this will, at the end of the day, be reflected in our order book. So I do not see that this will be the peak. There is more to come in the next years. And we will also see we have guided for EUR 6 billion in 2030. That means order book will increase simply to our revenue structure across the years.

Plus what we need to consider here is the international customers. I mean once we have scaled our capacity, which is on its way, I mean, just coming back from 2 big exhibitions in Riyadh as well as Singapore, I mean, one thing is for clear, the technology we deliver would sell on an international market. So it depends on our focused approach as well on the capacity. So in that regard, I'm very confident about future order intakes.

The next question comes from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.

Just one question on the margin guidance. You used to guide to a 50 bps increment, which I mean, is, to some extent, you're getting to the same level. But still in 2026, you may have a slightly lower margin increment, if I take your range. What has driven you to do -- I mean, such a range? I mean what is the potential headwind, I would say, that you may see in '26 to -- not to just simply guide to 18.9%. The second question was on the partnerships, very interesting. What forms will they take? Do you plan to have joint ventures? Or is it really kind of a supplier to client relationship? Or is it purely a collaboration? And the financial contribution of those partnerships, I would guess they are in your guidance. And do you expect to have more of these partnerships? Do you need more of those partnerships going forward? And the last question is on IRIS-T SL MX, apparently the latest evolution. Is it something that will require a new radar development on your side? Or is it already developed and already in your -- I mean, it has been kind of spent in terms of R&D?

Thanks, Christophe, for your margin question. I'm happy to take it. So first of all, while we have guided for a range, we have seen in the last 1 to 2 years that we always have, I would say, a slight or smart start into the year with lower margins because costs are in a linear perspective, whilst our business is still very, very heavily Q4 related. And you will see that in the first 1 or 2 quarters, normally, margins are under pressure because we take normal costs on board, we need them in order to have capacity. And then the margin turns out in November, December. And this makes the exact margin guidance relatively, I would say, to be very precise, it's difficult. But in the range, I feel quite comfortable. And you have seen in the last 2 to 3 years that we were always at the upper end and even beyond in the margin. So I'm very -- yes, also in this regard, I'm very convinced that we can also reach the 19%. But now let's stay with the guidance. I think this is one aspect. Another thing is that when -- especially when we talk about air defense and the current situation in the Ukraine and our TRML-4D, there are sometimes decisions during the year that we prepone the one or the other radar for our customers, and they have a slightly different margin profile. And of course, we will always work together with our closest partners, the German government to have the radars there where needed. But this implies then a little different margin perspective, which has an impact then on the bottom line.

Okay. To the other questions, Christophe, partnerships, I think that varies. The current status is indeed the partnerships are strategic. They are collaborative. And at that stage, it's supply in both directions. We would supply components, be it sensors, be it interfaces to the partners as well as we would get their supply, example, given Tytan on a counter UAV drone that is embedded into our Elysion system. I mean, looking into the future, we are open in, of course, extending that to a stronger tie which depends then, I mean, especially looking at Schwarz Digits. Once we have a larger program coming out, then, of course, program to program, we have to consider also from financial aspects, we had the question on luWES, what would be the best setup, the industrial setup to support also the financial, the risk sharing, the work sharing and all of that, where in the end, we definitely are open also in structures of JVs and putting things together. But that is what I would say rather in the future. As you know from past discussions, I'm a strong fend that such industrial constructs are means to an end. So at the moment, we're really focusing on the end, bringing the topics of the companies together to the benefit of our customer. Do we need more partners? I mean, clear conviction from my side, nobody can do it alone. We need more partnerships at the moment. So we have an MOU with SAP in place, which we discussed last year at the Munich Security Conference, which was primarily aiming at the electromagnetic combat element of the Eurofighter. So we have revisited that on management level at the MSC this year. We have recently signed an MOU with Kongsberg on the space constellation. In that regard, especially looking into the Nordics, there are strong G2G agendas. And whenever a G2G agenda would need a strong partnership on industrial level, we are open to discuss. And as a matter of fact, I'm in a very frequent dialogue with most of the CEOs here in looking at the traditional defense players. But also partnerships with -- and I won't elaborate too much anymore on supply chain and so on, where we have, at the moment, strong discussions with automotive suppliers, be it that we take personal, be it that we use their capacity in production, extending our supply chain and so on. So partnering indeed is a very strong element, and I would rather conclude you can't have enough partners in order to cope with the dynamics and the growth that we see ahead of us. And the last thing, IRIS-T SLX. Yes, there will be adaptations on software level, but it's software-defined radar. So in that regard, I would consider this as evolutionary, not disruptive in that sense. Also considering the fact that we have a strategic partnership with Diehl. Helmut Rauch and I meet on a very regular basis. We have established governance to discuss the way forward. That is about integrating. And also you see our MOU that Helmut -- that Diehl and Hensoldt have signed during the Paris Air Show last year, where we want to improve the surveillance and reconnaissance elements where we would connect the radars of the IRIS-T SLM also with the broader air surveillance where Hensoldt has many radars in place, integrating the passive radar, also extending, let's say, the ISR network, air defense ISR network to counter UAS, where at the moment, we are in discussions with the German ANSP, DFS as well as with Deutsche Telekom to probably bring things more broader into the German infrastructure. And also, what you saw is that recently, Diehl has proven that they can shoot a missile also from a German frigate -- in that regard, as you know, we also have our radar on this frigate, which would be adapted to the software stand of the TRML-4D in that regards to support a new air defense capability for the Navy. All of that is in the perimeter of a very strategic discussion with Diehl and that, of course, encompasses the Iris-T SLX as well.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Veronika Endres for any closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you all for listening today. And as always, should you have any further questions, the IR team is around all day to follow up. With that, have a great day. Thank you, and goodbye.

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