Hindalco Industries Limited (500440) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries Third Quarter Results for FY '26. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, and a very good evening, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the third quarter of financial year 2026. In this call, we will refer to the third quarter financial year '26 investor presentation posted on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on Slide #2 of the said presentation. This presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the third quarter for financial year '26 versus the corresponding period of the previous year. A segment-wise comparative financial analysis of Novelis and Indian Aluminum and Copper business is also provided. The corresponding segment information of prior periods have also been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis. Today, we have with us on this call from Hindalco's management, Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director; and Mr. Bharat Goenka, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis' management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO; and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, this forum will be open for questions and answers. Post this call, an audio replay will also be available on the company's website. Now let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through the company's performance and key highlights in the third quarter of fiscal '26.

Yes. Good afternoon and morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Hindalco's earnings con call today. On Slide 5 to 10 of this presentation, you can see our progress across quarterly metrics of safety and sustainability for this quarter versus prior periods. I will now take you through the key highlights of these initiatives. At Hindalco, safety is always our highest priority. Our LTIFR for this quarter is at 0.22, showing significant improvement over the prior period. During the quarter, we regret to report a road safety incident that resulted in a fatality at one of our Indian operations. We deeply regret this loss and are committed to taking all necessary corrective actions to prevent such occurrences in the future. To further strengthen road safety audits, we are implementing measures to prevent man and machine interface risks across all our manufacturing units. Let me now share one good news. Hindalco has scored 89 out of 100 in the S&P Global CSA 2025, the highest-ever score achieved by the company to maintain its leadership position in the aluminum industry. This recognition emphasizes our unwavering commitment and comprehensive strategy towards our long-term ESG excellence. At Hindalco, we continue to make strong progress on circularity and responsible waste management. This quarter, 82% of the total waste generated was recycled or reused, indicating stronger waste management performance. We achieved 126% recycling of bauxite residue, excluding Utkal; 105% recycling of ash and 126% recycling of copper slag this quarter. Our specific water consumption in Aluminum has further decreased, driven by the installation of an RO ZLD plant and tube settler, along with runoff recovery systems at Hirakud as well as the commissioning of a condensate polishing unit at Utkal Alumina. Additionally, the cycles of concentration optimization projects implemented across 11 cooling towers at Aditya and Hirakud have contributed to higher water savings in these units. In Copper, freshwater consumption intensity has also reduced compared to the prior period, supported by higher production volumes. We remain deeply committed to preserving and enhancing our biodiversity in and around the areas of operation. During the quarter, we planted 70,000 saplings across our mines and plant locations. Of these, 32,000 saplings were planted in our mining areas, significantly higher than the 23,000 planted in the previous year. These efforts are expanding our green belt coverage, supporting local biodiversity and enhancing overall environmental quality across our operations. We are also progressing a flagship coastal ecological initiative, transforming 50 hectares of barren coastal land into a thriving mangrove ecosystem. Further, we have launched a no net loss on biodiversity project across 350 acres in Belgavi, Karnataka. These projects are designed to deliver measurable ecological benefits while empowering local communities as stewards of restoration. At the end of this quarter, our renewable energy capacity was at 418 megawatts powered by solar, wind and hydel resources. We are on track to adding another 103 megawatts in the following quarter and are well advanced in our round-the-clock renewable energy initiatives with 130 megawatts of storage-based power to be deployed this year, taking our renewable capacity to 522 megawatts by the end of this financial year. These achievements reflect our commitment to clean energy and reducing carbon intensity as we move towards a greener and more sustainable future. Our aluminum-specific GHG footprint for the quarter was at 9.11 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminum produced, which is lower than the quarter period of the last fiscal year. Now let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment on Slide 12. IMF expects the global growth to remain steady at 3.3% year-on-year across 2025 and 2026. This steady performance results from balancing of divergent forces. Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology as well as fiscal and monetary support and broadly accommodative financial conditions. The U.S. is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026, assisted by fiscal stimulus, lower policy rates and easing trade-related drags. Meanwhile, China is projected to expand 4.5%, supported by stimulus measures and easing trade tensions, although structural challenges continue to weigh on medium-term performance. The risk to global growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. The main concerns stem mainly from AI investments, overcorrection, renewed trade tensions, geopolitical flare-ups and rising fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. Global inflation is projected to moderate to 3.8% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025 as softer demand and lower energy prices persist. However, the U.S. is expected to see a more gradual return to the target. In this global environment, India's growth momentum remains strong. Real GDP rose by 8.2% in Q2 on the back of resilient domestic demand and strong industrial and services sector performance. The economy is benefiting from supportive factors like GST rationalization, softer crude oil prices and improved financial conditions. Manufacturing activity has held up well in the past few years, supported by healthy bank credit flows to key segments. On the demand side, urban consumption is steadily improving, while the rural demand continues to hold firm. However, external risks in the form of geopolitical uncertainties and commodity price volatility could weigh on the growth outlook. Against this backdrop, the RBI projects FY '26 growth at 7.3%, while Economic Survey forecast FY '27 growth in the range of 6.8% to 7.2%. RBI also expects the inflation to remain low at 2%, supported by softer food prices and easing crude oil prices with an uptick towards the 4% target in FY '27. This gives RBI the room to stay supportive of growth. The monetary policy stance remains neutral, balancing growth and price stability. Moving on to the industry outlook on Slide 13 to 15. On Slide 13, you can see that the aluminum prices have strengthened during this quarter. The demand conditions remain steady across primary end-use segments such as packaging, electrical, machinery and transport. On the supply front, concerns over potential smelter shutdowns and delaying capacity ramp-ups continue to support prices. Furthermore, accommodative monetary policy, improved investor sentiment and a broader upswing in commodity markets, most notably in copper, have collectively bolstered aluminum price levels. In calendar year '25, global aluminum production and consumption each grew around 2% year-on-year to nearly 74 million tonnes, resulting in a broadly balanced market. In China, production rose 2% year-on-year to about 44 million tonnes, driven by capacity additions in Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia, partially offset by rationalization in Shandong. Consumption increased to around 3% year-on-year to approximately 46 million tonnes, mainly supported by around 30% surge in new energy vehicle production in China. Building and construction activities, however, remain subdued due to lower real estate investments. As a result, China closed the year with a deficit of roughly 2.3 million tonnes. In the rest of the world, production grew by around 2% to nearly 30 million tonnes, while consumption reached around 28 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year. Stronger demand in Brazil and Indonesia helped balance softer trends in the U.S. By segment, packaging, construction and consumer durables showed improving momentum, whereas transport stayed subdued. This led to an overall surplus of about 2 million tonnes by end 2025. Overall, the global aluminum market remains balanced, ending calendar year '25 with a modest deficit of around 240 Kt, with China's deficit largely offset by a surplus in the rest of the world. Turning to aluminum demand in India, as shown on Slide 14. Q3 FY '26 demand is expected to reach 1.5 million tons, reflecting a robust 9% year-on-year growth. Growth remains broad-based with autos buoyed by GST 2.0 reform, strong momentum in solar, driven by rising investments and steady demand in packaging. Overall, India continues to outperform the global market. Turning to the Indian copper industry on Slide 15. In the domestic copper market, demand this quarter, including domestic supply, scrap and imports, excluding scrap, rose by 10% year-on-year, reaching 402,000 tons compared to 364 Kt in the same period last year. This strong growth was driven by infrastructure investments, increased electrical application and strong sectoral demand, particularly from white goods and winding wires. On the Tc/Rc front, the Chinese smelters have finalized the 2026 long-term copper concentrate contracts with Antofagasta Minerals at $0.00 per pound, underscoring a sharply tightening near-term structural deficit in the global concentrate market. In contrast, smelters in Japan, Korea, Europe and India remain in negotiations as they seek more favorable terms than those agreed in China. Notably, this year's talks are being conducted separately by Chinese and non-Chinese smelters, signaling a potential shift away from a single global benchmark towards more region-specific pricing. Meanwhile, in the spot market, buying terms have settled around minus $0.10 to $0.11 per pound, reflecting continued supply tightness. Let me now give you a glimpse of our quarterly consolidated and business segment-wise performance this quarter versus the same quarter of last year on Slide 17. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 6% year-on-year at INR 8,762 crores this quarter. The consolidated profit after tax was down 45% on a year-on-year basis to INR 2,049 crores this quarter due to the impact of exceptional items, including the impact of the Novelis Oswego plant fires. So if we adjust the impact of this exceptional item, our consolidated PAT would have been INR 4,051 crores this quarter, up 8% year-on-year versus the prior period. At Hindalco India business, our business segment EBITDA rose by 10% year-on-year at INR 5,660 crores this quarter, whereas our quarterly profit after tax was at a record INR 3,581 crores, up 24% on a year-on-year basis this quarter. Coming to our business-wise performance this quarter, the India Upstream Aluminum shipments were up by 2% year-on-year, while revenues were up 6% year-on-year. Our quarterly EBITDA was up 14% year-on-year at INR 4,832 crores, backed by our resilient performance across the value chain, fully aligned with our philosophy of operational excellence by design. This helped us deliver an EBITDA of $1,572 per ton this quarter. EBITDA margins were at 45% and continue to be among the best in the global industry. Our hedging position for aluminum in the fourth quarter of FY '26 stands at around 64% on the commodity at $2,807 per ton and 26% in the currency at INR 88.18 per dollar. Our Indian Downstream Aluminum business continued to deliver a strong performance where quarterly shipments were up 9% year-on-year at 108 Kt. Aluminum Downstream delivered a quarterly EBITDA of INR 233 crores, up 55% year-on-year versus INR 150 crores in the prior period. This was driven by higher volumes, product mix and premiumization. The result in EBITDA per ton stood at $241 a ton, higher by 35% year-on-year this quarter. On Hindalco's Copper business performance, our overall metal shipments were up at 122 Kt, up 1% year-on-year, of which CCR volumes were at 82 Kt, down 14% year-on-year due to weaker domestic market on account of higher LME and higher channel inventories. Our quarterly Copper EBITDA stood at INR 595 crores, down 23% year-on-year on account of lower Tc/Rcs and copper concentrate mix, offset by better realization in byproducts and operational efficiencies. Novelis recorded shipments of 881 Kt after adjusting for 72 Kt lower shipments due to Oswego fires, reflecting a decline of 3% year-on-year over 904 Kt shipments in the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA stands at $436 million, which is $495 per ton, up 22% year-on-year, excluding the impact of $54 million from Oswego fires and $34 million from tariffs this quarter. Back in April 2025, we had set an FY '26 exit savings run rate target of $75 million, which we raised last quarter to $125 million. With another quarter of solid execution behind us, that run rate is now $150 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our 3-year goal of permanently reducing our cost structure by $300 million by FY '28 exit. Additionally, scrap prices continue to move in a positive direction, supporting margin improvement. Coming to Slide 20, Hindalco at the consolidated level continues to maintain a strong balance sheet, with net debt-to-EBITDA well below 2x at 1.73 at the end of December 2025. Underlying cash generation momentum from our businesses is strong, and we continue to invest in growth projects in line with our capital allocation policy. Despite the temporary impact of Oswego fires, we remain committed to maintain our net leverage around 2x at the consol level. During the quarter, Hindalco's wholly owned subsidiary, AV Minerals, raised $800 million at SOFR plus 105 basis points. Of this amount, $750 million was infused into Novelis as equity in December 2025. Additionally, on 10th February, AV Mineral upsized the facility by a further $200 million at the same pricing. This additional amount will also be infused as equity into Novelis during the current quarter. Details of operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter compared to the corresponding period of last year as well as the previous quarters are covered in further slides and annexures to this presentation. Let me now conclude today's presentation with some key takeaways in Slide 27 and 28. At Novelis, our third quarter results underscore that the fundamental drivers of our business remain strong even as we navigate through the current challenges of tariffs and the restart of Oswego facility post-fires. In Q3 FY '26, excluding these impacts, our underlying adjusted EBITDA per run (sic) [ per tonne ] would have been nearly $500. Our Oswego hot mill is expected to start in late Q1 FY '27. Oswego outage impact is primarily a timing issue, a headwind this fiscal year that will largely be recovered in the next financial year. Our long-term guidance of $600 per ton remains intact as we advance on accelerated pace in our $300 million structural cost reduction program, driving sustained improvements in operational efficiency and margins. Our Bay Minette 600 Kt greenfield rolling and recycling facility is scheduled for completion this year to meet growing customer demand for automotive, beverage packaging and aluminum specialty products. Coming to our India business, in Q3 FY '26, we delivered a global industry-leading Aluminum Upstream EBITDA per ton, reaffirming our position in the first decile of the global cost curve. This performance reflects our strong operational efficiency, cost discipline and consistent execution. Our key Upstream expansion projects of Aditya Alumina Refinery and aluminum smelters are progressing well and remain on schedule as we move ahead with our objective of doubling down on our Upstream capacities. Our captive coal mines of Chakla, Meenakshi and Bandha coal mines shall lower Upstream costs leading to higher EBITDA margins. On the Downstream front, the ramp-up of our Aditya plant is now contributing meaningfully to the scale-up of overall FRP production. Our battery enclosure facility has achieved full ramp-up and is operating at optimal levels. Commissioning activities have commenced at both the Aditya battery foil unit and the Taloja AC fin facility. In our specialty alumina business, precipitated hydrate facility is expected to be commissioned in Q1 of FY 2027. Our Copper business remains resilient with the copper smelter inner groove tube, e-waste and recycling projects being on track, reinforcing our commitment to sustainability-driven growth. Hindalco is future-ready and steadfast in its core philosophy of engineering better futures. Our strategic priorities are clearly defined, accelerating capacity expansion across the aluminum and copper upstream businesses while driving a fourfold increase in downstream EBITDA in India by FY '30. Concurrently, Novelis is progressing its mid- to long-term 3x30 strategy anchored on three key priorities to deliver sustainable growth and enhance profitability by 2030. Together, these commitments position us strongly to capture emerging opportunities and create long-term sustainable value for all our stakeholders. Thank you very much for your attention, and the forum is now open to any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Wealth Management.

Sir, three questions from me. One, is it possible to explain the net debt bridge because we saw that net debt has increased by almost INR 18,000 crores on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So we understand that $0.4 billion was on Novelis and then $750 million we have paid to Novelis. So roughly around $1.2 billion, we can understand. But what about $0.8 billion extra? So first question is on reconciliation of net debt bridge, please?

Let me get Bharat to take you through that. Bharat?

Yes. So if you look at for the first 9 months, the net debt has gone up by INR 24,000 crores. And as we discussed in the Novelis call yesterday, the 9-month FCF for Novelis was a negative $1.7 billion...

Sir, is it possible to share on quarter-on-quarter, from second quarter to third quarter?

Yes. So let me just give you the 9-month picture. And then from there, I'll deep dive into the 3 months. So that $1.7 billion translates to, in INR terms, around INR 17,000 crores because there is an exchange rate difference on the opening balances. So INR 17,000 crores really came in from the Novelis FCF, which was a mix of the Oswego impact, around $485 million; the higher CapEx in Bay Minette as well as the increase in material price, that is the LME-driven price, impact on the working capital. So that's on Novelis. In the India business, the net debt increased by around INR 7,000 crores, which was coming really from the Copper business there because of the increase in the LME as well as some increase in stock because of the concentrate arrivals. The net debt increase was INR 7,000 crores. But in Q4, we are confident of liquidating or reversing that part of the Copper increase. But overall, this is the breakup of the INR 24,000 crores of increase in net debt.

So largely working capital requirements for copper concentrate in India, which will reverse in Q4. And on the Novelis side, it was really driven by the cash flow requirement on the Novelis fire. So we had to use the ABL line as Dev had told yesterday.

But as Novelis has mentioned around $0.4 billion incremental net debt from Q2 to Q3. And on that $750 million we have paid as an equity, which I can consider as net debt position. So $750 million plus $400 million, which is around $1.15 billion. Let's say, another -- I don't know how much working capital is involved in copper concentrate. But still after making so much profit, our net debt has increased by almost $2 billion. So I'm unable to reconcile that.

Yes. So on this INR 18,000 crores, I think the broad breakup is the -- in the India business, there was a INR 4,000 crores because of the working capital will get reversed. And in case of -- and if you look at in rupees, INR 1,000 crores -- what happens is the opening net debt also gets reconverted from dollars into rupees because of the ForEx impact on the opening. So INR 14,000 crores was the impact which came in from the Novelis FCF for the quarter.

Okay. Okay. Okay. Secondly, in sir, hedging, you have said Q4, what was the hedging loss in Q3? And anything on FY '27 also we have set?

So in -- I think in Q3, the hedging, I wouldn't say loss, but the notional loss was INR 245 crores. And in FY '27, we have now hedged about 21% at $2,925. And just to -- we will take it up to 25% at the current $3,100 levels. We are trying to catch it. So we'll probably be around 25% at about $3,000 by the end of March. That's our plan.

Understood. And sir, lastly, on account of our EBITDA per ton, when I look at last 3 quarters EBITDA per ton on aluminum, I'm including both Upstream and Downstream, we are getting EBITDA per ton of something like $1,550, $1,560 per ton, which is hardly any increase in last 3 quarters despite the fact that LME prices have increased by more than $300 per tonne. So partly, we understand because of hedging, but still it's difficult to look at that -- when LME prices have increased by around $400 per tonne, but our EBITDA does not have any change in that in the last 3 quarters...

I think that when you look at it, you have to get -- see, the Upstream EBITDA in Q1 was $1,467; in Q2, it was $1,521 and Q3 is $1,573. And you also have to go back and look at my commentary because we have, along with that, the specialty alumina EBITDA that when we sell, we add. And by -- from Q2 to Q3, there was a sharp drop in the alumina prices. So -- and if you look at my commentary in Q2, we had also got the RPO benefit, which I had talked about in the cost. So there are many -- besides the thing, there are a couple of moving parts, which I try to be as transparent when I do the quarterly call. So if you go back and reconcile all this, you will see that the pure Upstream part has been going up. The cost of production has been about 1 or 2 points higher as we have gone along the quarter.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stockbroking.

Am I audible?

Yes, sir. You're audible now.

Yes, you are.

Yes. So the first question was, with significant rise in copper prices, are we seeing any substitution happening from copper to aluminum?

I think that broadly, you can say that wherever possible, the substitution has been happening over the last few years already. So long-distance conductor cables, many wiring systems have been switching to aluminum, but it's not in the last quarter. But of course, there are certain applications where copper still holds, and that's why if you look at electrification, you look at electric vehicles, motors, harnesses, there, the copper demand remains extremely strong. So some amount of substitution has been happening over the last 2 years from what we have seen.

Sure. The other question, with CBAM coming in, what proportion of our aluminum exports are exposed to Europe? And you mentioned some level of emissions that we have. So are those in compliance with what the guidelines are for the CBAM?

So look, one thing you have to realize in aluminum CBAM, power is not included right now. So the Indian aluminum carbon per tonne is no different from Middle East, no different from anywhere else because power is not a part of CBAM yet. So till that gets included, the CBAM is not a restriction for any Indian aluminum imports. In fact, I'm a little bit positive with the current trade unit agreement that has been signed because I think that exporting to the Europe will become more attractive for us.

Sure. Sir, lastly, if you could just also give us a guidance on the fourth quarter COP. Will there be an increase in caustic, et cetera?

I think that we are expecting fourth quarter cost to be about 1% higher, largely driven by CP coke. CP coke prices have -- which goes into making the anode have sharply risen due to what's happening, I think, demand and supply in China. So we are expecting cost to be about 1% higher in Q4.

Your next question comes from the line of Pinakin from HSBC.

A question on Novelis. There is 180,000 volumes, which have not been contracted in Bay Minette, and they are for the auto segment. So just trying to understand, given the Oswego fire, given the disruption it has caused to the largest customer of Novelis, when would this volumes for the auto sector be contracted? Is there a risk that these volumes are not contracted until Oswego is fully up and running well into next calendar year?

Yes, Steve?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Pinakin. So obviously, OEMs are continuing to contract because they've already made choices as to their material on their vehicles and we will have start of production dates over the next several years. We're very positive on our Bay Minette progress and the commissioning in the second half of this year. As we said before, we feel really comfortable about the overall contracting as we ramp up the overall plant over the time frame of 18 to 24 months. We also think as OEMs look at the fire and think about risk management, I think first, aluminum has significant advantages, lightweighting for strength-to-weight ratio, better agility, better braking, better, higher payload, towing, all these benefits have to go into their decisions, especially on the larger vehicles in the North American marketplace. And from a risk management standpoint, Novelis will be the only aluminum provider with three hot mills capable of providing these technically sophisticated products, both beverage packaging, automotive and then also specialty product sheet as well as well as multiple locations of finishing capacity at both Guthrie and at Oswego and Kingston. So while everyone will be looking at their overall portfolios associated with the Oswego fire, the growth that we continue to see because of the attributes of aluminum, advantages aluminum brings, we still see the growth, and we think Novelis is in a very strong position to continue to capture that growth and contract into it.

Sure. So do you expect to contract these volumes in calendar year '26?

A combination of already contracted '26 and '27.

By the way, Pinakin, it's not such a bad thing at this point in time to have open capacity because there could be portfolio and pricing opportunities because overall, the North American markets are in a pretty good place from a demand-supply balance perspective. So having some open capacity is actually a good strategic -- may turn out to be a good strategic opportunity. So it's not like a concern or a bad thing in the market conditions in which we are.

Got it. Got it. My second question is for Mr. Pai. Now we understand that some of the net debt would reverse as the working capital gets released. But given there was a past CapEx cycle, aluminum prices did not do well and Hindalco's debt had surged. At this point of time, the cycle is slightly different. But given what's happening at Novelis, would the company look at pushing out or delaying some of the CapEx programs either at Novelis or India in the course of calendar year '26?

So the way, Pinakin, we are looking at that, and that's why in the prepared remarks, we are sticking to our commitment of 2 or below at a consol net debt-to-EBITDA level. And I think that, that's the only way I can answer because the Novelis CapEx is largely Bay Minette. After that, they're going to go on a deleveraging cycle. And the India CapEx, the projects that we have, you know very well, we are going to be spending around INR 10,000 crores a year, which right now for the next 2 years, I don't see a problem with the cash that we have. But if we can or do get into trouble, we will take the decision so that the consol net debt-to-EBITDA does not go above 2. I think that's the best way I can answer.

The next question comes from the line of Vikash Singh from ICICI Securities.

Sir, my first question is towards Novelis. Since we are buying the slabs from outside and to meet the customer requirement, had the insurance covered the additional premium or the cost which we are paying from the buying slab from outside as well? Or is it over and above what we have estimated in terms of the hit we have to take?

Yes. So the insurance does cover the cost of all the external sourcing that we are doing. That is part of the policy.

Noted, sir. Sir, my second question pertains to the Bay Minette expansion. While I noted that we have spent only 54% of the CapEx till date and our starting time is second half CY '23, hardly 6 months down the line. So is -- the project has been delayed? Or how should we look at the aggressiveness of the capital CapEx basically in the next 6 months? Because I'm confused that you would be able to spend that -- even that assuming 15% to 20% payment after the commissioning, 30% in next 6 months spending would be pretty high, which would reflect on your debt as well. So are we confident of commissioning it on time now?

Absolutely. And -- so the cash flows reflect exactly the way things should be. Now we are in a phase where you will see an acceleration. There has already been some acceleration of the cash flow, and it will keep happening as we approach our commissioning dates towards the later part of this year. So there is nothing abnormal about the way the cash outflows are going, and it is not -- just because of the percentage, it is not indicative of any slowness in the project. You see right now, we are in an intense construction phase. And therefore, this is where we need to pay contractors because they need to pay the labor. So as you get into this intense construction phase, cash flows rightly tend to accelerate. But I don't want you to kind of think that just because we are at $2.7 billion, there is some slowness in the project versus the projected cost of around $5 billion, not at all.

Noted, sir. And sir, just lastly, since next 6 to 7 months, basically, most of this $2 billion of Bay Minette would be spent, even after the copper working capital getting diluted, we could expect the overall debt levels to remain at current levels or you are expecting on a consolidated level, it should be coming down?

I think Dev just answer on the Novelis debt side, and I'll take...

Yes. So let me clarify something. It is not like all the cash flows will go completely out at the time of the commissioning. No, the cash flows will lag the commissioning. So I want to be clear about that. The cash flows will go into the next calendar year, even up to, let's say, sort of beyond the first quarter of next calendar year. So please don't assume that all the $5 billion is going to be out by the end of this year, okay? So I just want to clarify that. And before I hand over to Satish, just want to clarify that once we complete Bay Minette, our deleveraging cycle starts almost immediately after that. So basically, after fiscal year '27, we enter -- from fiscal year '28, we enter a deleveraging cycle because this is really what is peaking our cash flow, cash outflows. So just two things to note.

And look, on the India side, the net -- the gross debt will not go up. So right now, we have got long-term debt and short term where the working capital requirements that Bharat mentioned, we have taken, but that will reverse as the copper concentrate is consumed in Q4. So at India level, there will be no increase in debt. Again, I repeat, the overall way to look at it is that on a consol level, we'll try to keep that gross net debt-to-EBITDA around 2.

Your next question comes from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi.

Just continuing on the debt question. Considering yesterday's call on -- at Novelis, you already have a net debt of about $6.2 billion, considering you have some undrawn limit and which you'll be drawing for working capital. And also, I agree that you just clarified that there will be a certain lag to push out the CapEx amount going forward. However, just considering next, say, 6 months or 9 months, is it possible to quantify the net debt at Novelis? Can we assume that going to about $8.5 billion-odd number? Because yesterday on the call, you said that the leverage would actually go towards the higher end of the 4x basically.

Dev?

So I clarified yesterday on our call that from a net debt-to-EBITDA perspective, we will go into the high 4s. And I want to be clear that our debt levels could be going up -- will be going up further from this point in time. And they could be -- for a period of time until the insurance recoveries come, they could be going well above the levels of sort of high $8 billion. That is going to be timing. And as the insurance recoveries start coming, we would quickly see that falling below $8 billion. I would say even by the end of FY '27, our gross debt could kind of be sort of coming towards $8 billion or below $8 billion after going much higher than that into the high 8s. So yes, there will be an increase, in short, in the gross debt for a while.

Yes. So sir, just mentioned that your consol net debt would be around -- you'll not try to surpass 2 on the medium term. But considering insurance would take about 18 to 24 months, which was pointed out again yesterday on the call, would it be fair to assume that, that actually the threshold would surpass in '27 and say, mid of '28, considering we'll be surpassing $8 billion of net debt in Novelis?

So I think that -- No, I think, Dev -- I think the point that we will have to look at is how post the Oswego start-up, how this thing develops because the net debt to EBITDA, of course, takes into account the trailing 12-month EBITDA. I think what Dev is trying to give you is the absolute levels of debt. So I think that to take your point, is it possible in 1 quarter that it may go above? Fair enough. But I think that what we are trying to give you is a sort of a little bit of a longer-term perspective over a year. There will be and can be some amount of spikes or so during a month or a quarter. But there are pluses and minuses. We are quite hopeful that Oswego will start up. So I think you'll just have to bear with us over the next 6 months as we get through this issue of getting the Oswego startup.

Sure, sure. That's helpful. Sir, my second question is pertaining to...

Sorry. Just to be clear, when you say insurance monies will take a longer time, it does not mean that everything just comes all at once. That's what I clarified yesterday that insurance payments keep coming progressively, and we are working very closely to make sure that we do everything to accelerate those payments. We have already started getting some monies. And so you should not think about insurance monies as something that will all come at the end of 15 to 18 months. That's not a right assumption.

Okay. Sure. Sir, my second question is pertaining to Bay Minette. Now when we announced Bay Minette a couple of years back, the entire macros, especially in U.S. were quite different, right? And purely for that reason, we were able to contract almost about 70% of the volume. When the second escalation of CapEx happened, there were a couple of reasons being given that there's some civil work escalation which has happened and so on and so forth. How confident are we to take up the next phase of expansion of, going from 0.6 to 1.2? And also considering the global macros, what is the kind of IRRs you are expecting, say, beyond '28? Because I think '27, you are not expecting any volume, '28 will start volumes -- you can expect volume from Bay Minette from '28, but I just want to get your longer-term perspective on this.

Yes. So -- all right. So again, the IRR picture, we will be just below double digits. We will be covering the cost of capital. And so from the point of view of does the project still make good financial sense, the answer is clearly yes. It will be accretive in a very nice way to the EBITDA story, and it will be a key enabler for us to get to that over $600 per ton EBITDA, which Satish earlier alluded to.

As far as the macros, we still are very confident in the drivers of demand, especially in beverage packaging. I talked about automotive earlier. So we're still very confident that the overall supply-demand picture with Bay Minette first phase and ADI's aluminum expansion in the U.S. will bring further opportunities for Phase 2 by the end of the decade. And of course, we talked before that in the second phase, the utilization of the hot mill with the second cold mill is very accretive from a return perspective, but nothing to announce as far as timing or anything at this point in time.

Sure. But when we speak about a $600 or $525 kind of an EBITDA number in medium to long term, a couple of your competitors, global competitors, I'm -- not particularly your U.S. competitors, but global competitors have already surpassed $630 kind of a number last quarter. Is there a place where -- is there a room for improvement? Just wanted to understand where are we lagging or where -- what can be done to reach that $600 number as fast as possible?

We stay committed to the building blocks to the $600 per ton long term. We would have to understand which competitor you're referring to that they might have a very different product mix from us. But from the underlying efficiency of our business, the target that we've set is a very strong operational performance and very much on the back of the $1,000 plus per ton of EBITDA coming off of the Bay Minette project itself.

And just one request. In the presentation, you used to give -- yes, just quickly. You used to give the global deficit and surplus for aluminum and copper, if possible from next quarter, if you can give that would be really helpful.

I did give the global...

No, the sides, basically. The slides.

The slides. Okay, okay. All right. We'll give that.

Your next question comes from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.

Just a couple of questions. One is, how should one understand the capital structure at Novelis? I understand it's the equity injection of $750 million plus incrementally $200 million. So how should we understand that? And what is the plan to repay this $950 million? That's one. Second is why did we come to this number of $750 million plus $200 million? And what gives us confidence that there won't be a need of anything beyond this $950 million? If you could put that into context with the covenants that we have on, I think, 2032 term loans, which I [indiscernible] at 3.5x secured net leverage. does it necessarily mean that there won't be further need of infusion? Any comfort over that, if you could provide as well? That's the first question.

Satish, you want me to take it?

Yes, take it. I mean, yes.

Yes. So let me try to answer all parts of your question. So we are looking at $750 million and potentially another $200 million of equity infusion. Now what is the thinking, rationale, logic around it? Essentially, this is going to go towards funding the announced higher cost of Bay Minette, i.e., from $4.1 billion to around $5 billion. That is essentially the logic behind infusing this equity between us and our parent. We've agreed that it is not good to go into the debt market to fund this increase. Now this would have in the normal course happened at a bit of a later point of time. But given what happened with Oswego, and we will have a $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion gross outflow until insurance money comes, this also now becomes a bridging money to a very large part to be able to really fund that short-term need and then insurance money will start coming in. And it will basically -- once again, the point is it will basically eventually go towards Bay Minette. Now I want to be clear that during the year, there could be some timing challenges. And those timing challenges, we will solve by using some short-term working capital or structured financing facilities. As I've been saying even yesterday at our call, the only debt that we will go for externally now will be the planned debt raise of another $500 million that should happen between now and the middle of the year, and that was planned debt. In short, in terms of how we will manage the capital and the structure, we are not going to be going out to raise any more debt other than the already planned debt that we would have raised. I hope that, that is helpful.

Yes. Just a follow-up. So this $750 million plus $200 million what we have raised, what's the cost of fund over there? And is there a tenure because for insurance, you indicated that the money can continue to trickle in. So is there a time line on the $750 million plus $200 million to be returned?

Yes, it's 5 years...

Yes. So the cost is SOFR plus 105 bps.

Sir, I couldn't get you, sorry.

Yes, it's SOFR plus 105 bps.

And the tenure?

5 years.

Perfect. And would it be possible for you to indicate what is the overall cost of debt at Novelis? And how are we looking at the cost of capital at Novelis? The reason to ask this question is when we look at Bay Minette and when we indicate that we are comfortable on covering the cost of capital. Just trying to play out the numbers over here.

Dev? [Technical Difficulty]

Sorry, sir, the line for the Novelis management has been disconnected. Please hold on a moment. I'll get the line reconnected.

So just maybe we'll -- when Dev comes on, he'll answer that question, but let's go to...

Mr. Pai, in the interim, if I can just ask a question, like why is the tenure of 5 years for the return of $950 million? And do we have adequate comfort that this number won't go beyond $950 million because there is a covenant which is there, which is 3.5x. So looking at the cash flow profile, I think the denominator is adjusted EBITDA. But are we comfortable, confident that there won't be further need beyond this $950 million?

No. I mean, I think that right now, we are looking at the situation and the way we have modeled it, we are fairly confident. I think that a 5-year tenure is fine because we really believe that the next 6 to 8 months, by the time we get Oswego back up and running and Bay Minette commissioned, we'll all be talking something quite different. So the next 6 to 8 months is our critical period, and I think that we'll be out of the woods there.

Sure. I'll wait for the answers on cost of debt...

The line has been reconnected, sir.

Yes, Dev, cost of capital of Novelis was his question.

Yes. So the cost of capital of Novelis is in the mid-8s.

And the cost of debt, sorry?

The cost of debt, the weighted average cost of debt would be somewhere around 5.3%. Yes.

Perfect. And last question. The debt maturity profile for $6.2 billion or the gross number, if you could just help for Novelis, that would be helpful.

You're talking about Novelis maturity profile?

Yes.

Well, most of it is towards the end of the decade. We have no early maturities. After we did the last refinancing of the $750 million in September last year, our debt maturity profile is now approaching towards the end of the decade. The only renewal that we can talk about is the ABL renewal, which will happen in the middle of this year. But we are very comfortable with the maturity profile of our debt.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Raashi from Citi.

Just a couple of questions. On the CapEx side, we have an idea of the Novelis CapEx, so for India, what has happened so far in the 9 months? What is the target for this year and next year?

Yes. So this year, our target is -- we'll be finishing the year at around INR 8,000 crores. And you need to add to that, the INR 2,000 crores we paid to get the Bandha mine. So roughly this year will be INR 10,000 crores. And next year, we also will be in the same range, about INR 10,000 crores to INR 12,000 crores because the Aditya refinery, recycling plant projects will be going. So that's the next year's forecast as well.

And how much have we spent in the 9 months?

In 9 months, we have spent about INR 7,000 crores, I think. So we'll be finishing the year -- not INR 7,000, I think it's about INR 6,000. We finished the year at INR 8,000 crores plus the INR 2,000 crores of Bandha, which will take it to INR 10,000 crores.

Got it. And what is in the current split -- of the INR 59,000 crores of net debt, how much net debt is on India books?

India is a negative [ INR 4,000 ] crores.

You're talking about gross or net? Because net in India is negative.

Yes. So negative INR 600 crores.

INR 600 crores of cash on the India books?

Yes.

Got it. Just one question on the cost side. This quarter, your cost also went up by 1% and next quarter also, you're expecting a 1% increase.

Yes. This quarter, just let me now clarify. Last quarter, when I talked about the cost, I said that the cost had a onetime impact of an RPO reversal. So if you look at it quarter-on-quarter, the way it stands, it's 2% up this quarter versus last quarter. But if you take out the impact of the RPO that I mentioned in the last quarter, the cost was flat. But as you will see in real numbers, it's 2% higher because last quarter had a onetime write-back of the RPO that I did mention in the script.

Got it. Has there been any delay in the Chakla line? I think earlier you were talking about a start end of FY '26 and now the presentation is saying the first half of FY '27.

So we are still trying to get certain clearances sorted out. We thought we would do the box cut in January. The box cut now looks like more likely like April. So yes, there has been about a quarter delay.

All right. And just last question, alumina sales for the fourth quarter expectation?

Alumina sales for the fourth quarter should be around 170 to 180 Kt. We did 160 in Q3.

Our next question comes from the line of Prateek Singh from IIFL Capital.

Much of the Hindalco India questions have been answered. Two questions on Novelis. First, given record high scrap spreads in North America right now, I want a bit of sense as to when they will start reflecting in North American EBITDA per tonne? Are we sitting on a lot of high-cost scrap inventory? And if you could just help us with what is the recycled content in North America? I mean we talked about 63% across the globe, but what's the recycled content in North America, if that's something which can help us add the benefit on a monthly basis given scrap...

So the line was not very clear. We were not able to fully hear the questions. We only got some words. Subir, can you just translate the question for us? The line was not good.

I think the question was -- he was asking when will the EBITDA per tonne of North America increase? And what is the recycled content in North America, if I got it right.

Yes. So -- the scrap spreads are quite high right now at record highs because of the Midwest Premium in North America. So when would that start reflecting?

Yes. So they are reflecting. But the point is that our ability to use scrap in North America today is impaired because of the Oswego plant being down. So had it been a situation where we were under these pricing conditions, had we been fully up and running, we would have seen some very, very nice impacts from the current metal prices and therefore, the scrap spreads, but we are being impaired by that. Now if I were to say, in Q3, despite sort of not being able to use the scrap volumes that we would otherwise have done as compared to the previous year same quarter because of the high metal prices and the resultant spreads, we are still in a pretty good place on an overall metal performance, right? So that is something that I just want you to know. Now at a company level, we are still at a recycling rate of around 63%. So we are still at that point. Of course, North America is lower, but then it is not right to look at North America in this situation. It does not represent the reality.

So I understand right now, North America might be lower, but let's say, before the Oswego incident, what was the recycling content in North America within -- ballpark numbers?

It is pretty much close to the company average. I mean it will be very close to the company average, which is around 63%.

Understood. And my second question is your cost of service this quarter because of Oswego was around $186 million. Assuming a 20 Kt volume impact, that comes to around $9,000 per tonne. I'm not sure if understanding is correct here. But safe to assume these will be lower on a per tonne basis going ahead, given now you had time to optimize supply chains and the Midwest Premium arbitrage also kind of now facilitates imports. So is that the understanding how we should look at it?

You're talking about several things together. I'm not really sure how I should address the question, but let me try my best. I don't know -- the 20 Kt that you talked about, the 20 Kt is -- well, I mean, the impact of the Oswego fire is like 72 Kt, right? Now as we are undergoing Oswego remediation, I mean, the fixed cost of Oswego are now not reflected in the EBITDA. Until the time Oswego comes back, we will be reflecting Oswego costs below EBITDA. And you can look at our filings. I mean, all the numbers are there in the filings. But basically, we have reclassed about $61 million as idle costs below EBITDA. But honestly, I mean, it is not a great time right now because of the distorted situation from Oswego shutdown for the time being, it's not a good time to really make any conclusions from the cost structure because we have reoriented supply chains. We are producing material in different regions to supply to North America. Net-net, I mean, I think that, as a reminder, if you really exclude the impact of all the different ongoing events and just look at where we are on an EBITDA per tonne basis, the underlying is $495. Last quarter was around $506. So minus the noise, our cost structure, EBITDA per tonne is in a pretty good place.

Dev, the question is more on the cost to serve. You were just saying going forward, how do you see the cost to serve versus Q3?

Okay. So the cost to serve will steadily continue like we have seen in this quarter. And so that's the best estimate that we have right now. Now depending upon the timing of the sourcing, when we are able to actually procure the material, there could be some timing differences. It could be a little bit higher as compared to the current run rate, but a lot of it depends upon the logistics and the ability to have the material coming in. For the time being, I mean, I would ask you to kind of just think that the cost -- for Q4, cost to serve will be on similar lines or a little bit higher as compared to quarter 3.

Noted. Yes. So the idea was that in Q3, you would have faced two things, which you may not face in Q4. Q3, obviously, you would be desperate to procure material. That supply chain might be becoming more streamlined right now. And second, the Midwest Premiums right now at 72% are much higher than the tariff rate. So imports may not be as costly versus Q3. So net-net, on a per tonne basis, your cost to serve ideally should be going down. So that was the point of the question, but I get what you said now.

Yes. So to be clear, the cost to serve, actually, the amount that we're bringing in increases in this quarter and next quarter compared to the December-end quarter. Why? Number one, we had finished goods inventory, both at the OEMs as well at Oswego. When the second fire occurred, we did not have any more finished goods inventory. We were hand to mouth as was the OEMs. We have created those supply chains through the first fire that now are stable and actually will bring in more hot band in Q1, Q2 of calendar 2026. So cost to serve, the quantity in Kts will increase. Yes, there is potentially some offset with higher Midwest Premium, but the overall dollars will increase in the next couple of quarters.

I think that if you take -- yes. I mean, I can make it a little bit simpler for you. It would be okay for you to kind of assume the overall run rate net income impact to be on pretty similar lines as we have in Q3 with all the puts and takes. So we can make it simpler if your intention is how do I model. So that's one input that I can give to you. You can take a pretty steady number comparable to what was in Q3 on an overall basis.

Understood. And just the last question...

Sorry to interrupt, Prateek, sir. May we request you return -- our next question comes from the line of [ Rajesh Majumdar ] from [ 360 ONE ] Capital.

So one question on Novelis and one on stand-alone. We see a kind of 11% volume decline in Novelis in this quarter. And if we go by the history, normally, 4Q and 1Q are heavy quarters for the company. So -- and you hinted at yesterday's call at some mitigating measures to external suppliers at all in terms of how to address the customer volumes. So will we see a similar kind of volume decline in the coming 2 quarters before [ Oswego is ] up? Or will we see some kind of reduction and a decline due to the mitigating measures? And a follow-up question, at what cost will it come? Will it be more margin dilutive for us?

Yes. So the volume impact was 72 Kt in this quarter, you can expect a pretty much similar volume impact because of Oswego in the fourth quarter. And that is net of sort of the production loss. So the net volume loss, i.e., low production, less all the procurement that we are able to do, will be pretty much close to 72 Kt. And quarter 4 is always one of the peak quarters that we have. So you are right to think that in quarter 4, we will see significantly higher volumes as compared to quarter 3. But I'm just trying to -- and we don't give you a quarter-by-quarter forecast in any case. But all that I can tell you is that it is very safe to assume that the impact on volume from Oswego in quarter 4 will be similar to quarter 3 at around 70 Kt.

Right. And the mitigating measures you suggested yesterday in terms of getting material from external suppliers, et cetera, will that kind of contribute to some kind of volume addition? And at what cost will that be?

Implication, that's what I'm saying that, I mean, the net impact will be 72, which includes all the mitigation measures that we will be taking. So based upon the impact net of mitigation measures, we will have a similar net impact of 72 Kt. That includes the mitigation.

And on the price on the EBITDA? More impact on the EBITDA because of mitigating measures or it will be similar?

So the EBITDA will be, again, the impact in fourth quarter will be a little bit higher. I mean, third quarter was, as you know, net $54 million. This could be more in the $60 million to $65 million in the fourth quarter on EBITDA. That's the guidance I can give to you.

And one question on the India business is that you mentioned in your PPT that there's some kind of demand disruption happening on the copper side because of the price rise. And from 3Q to 4Q, we've seen an even further increase in the copper prices. If we were to combine that with the lower TC/RCs, could we see a kind of combination by which our EBITDA from the Copper business can fall substantially into, say, half the peak level we have ever achieved? Yes, some clarity on that.

I didn't talk about any demand disruption of copper. I think that Q3 volumes are a bit low because it was the Diwali season and the copper prices sharply ran up. So people just ran down a bit of inventory. In fact, we are predicting Q4 will be an extremely strong quarter for copper. The demand is very strong, and the EBITDA guidance of the INR 600 crores is completely comfortable in Q4.

Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, that was the last question. You can connect with the Investor Relations team for your further queries. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pai for closing remarks.

Yes. I think I would just thank you all for joining. I think that both the India business, we see quarter 4 being a very strong quarter. And I think that for Novelis, the point that we made out is the underlying business is extremely strong. And I think that the next 6 months is going to be critical for us to get, number one, Oswego up and running; and number two, get the hot mill in Bay Minette commissioned in the second half of this year. I think that after that, we are very comfortable that you're going to see a very strong performance from Novelis going forward. So thank you very much for your attention. Thank you.

Thank you, members of the management. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.